Who Should Hit Second?
| Aaron Hill |  41 (12.62%) |
| Lyle Overbay | 111 (34.15%) |
| Alex Rios | 150 (46.15%) |
| Vernon Wells | 11 (3.38%) |
| Gregg Zaun | 4 (1.23%) |
| Other | 8 (2.46%) |
325 votes | 27 featured comments
Rios. Because Reed-Rios-Wells-Thomas is deadly. The top three are in their prime, fast, can hit for average (even if they won't take a #*&^@ walk), run the bases, and Rios and Wells have solid extra-base power. In the first half of last year, they dismantled opposing pitchers. They give you many, many ways to score. Also, Rios has learned to hit the other way--a good skill for a number-two hitter.
Overbay gets on base at a decent clip, but he's slow. If you bat him second, you lose the dynamism (hit-and-runs, broken-up double plays, shallow sac flies, double steals, bases-clearing doubles and triples) of last year's front three.
Overbay gets on base at a decent clip, but he's slow. If you bat him second, you lose the dynamism (hit-and-runs, broken-up double plays, shallow sac flies, double steals, bases-clearing doubles and triples) of last year's front three.
For me, its a tough decision between Wells and Overbay. I don't want to clog up the 3-4-5 with slowpokes (if Wells hits 2nd), but I also don't want too many righties in a row (if Overbay hits 2nd). All this, of course, is assuming Thomas hits 4th and Glaus 5th - which I don't necessarily agree with - but which I assume will happen.
I would choose Rios narrowly over Overbay, who would hit 5th.
To start the year,
Against righties, Overbay (Career OBP versus righties of .390
Against lefties, Rios.
I don't care how fast Overbay is, almost 40% of HIS hits are doubles or home runs. And with Wells, Thomas, Glaus, Rios, to follow in some combination... I don't think he'll need to turn on those jets too often anyways. Plus, I think he'll score Reeder from first with a lot of his doubles.
Against righties, Overbay (Career OBP versus righties of .390
Against lefties, Rios.
I don't care how fast Overbay is, almost 40% of HIS hits are doubles or home runs. And with Wells, Thomas, Glaus, Rios, to follow in some combination... I don't think he'll need to turn on those jets too often anyways. Plus, I think he'll score Reeder from first with a lot of his doubles.
I know its wacky, but I think Overbay should hit fourth. Reed-Rios-Wells getting on base, Overbay doubling them in, Thomas and Glaus getting their home runs. I just feel that if Thomas is on first and Overbay comes up, some of his doubles could turn into singles.
I'm against Overbay hitting behind Thomas. I just feel that if the Big Hurt is on first base, some of Overbays doubles are going to turn into singles...
My rationale for batting Overbay second is that I don't want the guys in front of big Frank running much.
Frank Thomas is a home run machine, so you obviously want as many runners on base before him as possible. Over the last three years Overbay has posted a .393 OBP vs righthanded pitching. I love Rios, but he's no guarantee to do that against lefties, let alone righties.
Speed in front of Thomas is a minor issue. Over the last five years, a whopping 32.7% of the Hurt's plate appearances have ended in strikeouts and walks. And in those 68.3% of PA where he does put the ball in play, he's also an extreme flyball hitter. He has posted a staggeringly low 24.0% groundball rate since 2002. 24.0% of 68.3% is 16.4% - so unless something about Thomas' hitting changes, a ground ball is worse than a 1 in 6 proposition. Hence, sending runners to avoid double plays is dubious, and even sending them on straight steals to put them in scoring position is a losing bet given how many of Thomas' hits are of the extra-base variety.
I'd rather see Rios' speed in front of Zaun (slow groundball hitter) and Hill (line drive singles hitter), where it can be put to more regular use.
Frank Thomas is a home run machine, so you obviously want as many runners on base before him as possible. Over the last three years Overbay has posted a .393 OBP vs righthanded pitching. I love Rios, but he's no guarantee to do that against lefties, let alone righties.
Speed in front of Thomas is a minor issue. Over the last five years, a whopping 32.7% of the Hurt's plate appearances have ended in strikeouts and walks. And in those 68.3% of PA where he does put the ball in play, he's also an extreme flyball hitter. He has posted a staggeringly low 24.0% groundball rate since 2002. 24.0% of 68.3% is 16.4% - so unless something about Thomas' hitting changes, a ground ball is worse than a 1 in 6 proposition. Hence, sending runners to avoid double plays is dubious, and even sending them on straight steals to put them in scoring position is a losing bet given how many of Thomas' hits are of the extra-base variety.
I'd rather see Rios' speed in front of Zaun (slow groundball hitter) and Hill (line drive singles hitter), where it can be put to more regular use.
Minor correction. Gregg Zaun has been a neutral BIP hitter (42.6% GB since 2002, ML average is usually around 43-44) who actually played as a slight flyball hitter last year. That is all. The point about him being slow still stands.
Other - is this not a good time for a Roberto Alomar comeback?
I think
1. Alex Rios (R) / Reed Johnson (R)
2. Vernon Wells (R)
3. Frank Thomas (R)
4. Troy Glaus (R)
5. Lyle Overbay (L)
6. Reed Johnson (R) / Alex Rios (R)
7. Gregg Zaun (B)
8. Aaron Hill (R)
9. SS (R)
would be the right lineup. I think the most important thing is having our best batters hit 2-4. Alternating L and R would be nice but the Jays don't have many choices there.
Baseballprospectus predicts the more baseball normal lineup of 1. Rios and 2. Johnson and flip Thomas and Glaus but otherwise have what I had above.
Overall batting order doesn't matter that much anyways.
1. Alex Rios (R) / Reed Johnson (R)
2. Vernon Wells (R)
3. Frank Thomas (R)
4. Troy Glaus (R)
5. Lyle Overbay (L)
6. Reed Johnson (R) / Alex Rios (R)
7. Gregg Zaun (B)
8. Aaron Hill (R)
9. SS (R)
would be the right lineup. I think the most important thing is having our best batters hit 2-4. Alternating L and R would be nice but the Jays don't have many choices there.
Baseballprospectus predicts the more baseball normal lineup of 1. Rios and 2. Johnson and flip Thomas and Glaus but otherwise have what I had above.
Overall batting order doesn't matter that much anyways.
Michael,
In Jordan Bastian's blog, http://mlbastian.mlblogs.com/, he notes that Gibbons has been considering using Wells in the number 2 spot and Overbay in the 3 spot.
If I recall correctly from The Book (and it's very likely that I have not recalled it correctly...), its noted that the teams best hitters should be in the 1, 2, and 4 spots with a less disciplined hitter in the number 3 spot. This would seem to encourage that Wells keep his spot in the order from last year.
I suppose I should pimp a batting order article I wrote on the Jays in 2001.
You recall correctly from the book. Remember that the differences are minor, but the three best hitters should hit 1, 2, 4. The next two best hitters should hit 3 and 5. Then 6 and on in decreasing quality. The 1 and 2 hitters should walk more (or have more of their value in their walking ability) than the 4 and 5 hitters. In some ways you're 5 hitter should be better than your 3 hitter due to the base/out situations he comes up in. Your base stealer threat ideally should hit 5th or 6th in front of the singles hitters rather than the power hitters.
With the Jays this means the ideal lineup would probably be (according to the simple book, using PECOTA to judge ability):
1 Thomas
2 Glaus
3 Rios
4 Wells
5 Overbay
6 Zaun
7 Hill
8 Johnson
9 Clayton
Although if you use the table 52 data which is the run value of each event by batting order (treating all BB as NIBB; since PECOTA doesn't predict HBP, which hurts Johnson a bit since he is a HBP magnet, I'll give each Jay 3 HBP/year except Reed who I'll give 15; giving everyone 0 RBOE) you get:
1 Thomas
2 Glaus
3 Rios
4 Wells
5 Overbay
6 Zaun
7 Johnson
8 Hill
9 Clayton
which gives a run value of +13.89 above a league average lineup (which is the same as the rule of thumb order but switch hill/johnson, probably because of using HBP instead of straight OPS)
compared to one of the worst lineups:
1 Clayton
2 Hill
3 Johnson
4 Zaun
5 Rios
6 Wells
7 Overbay
8 Glaus
9 Thomas
which gives a run value of -2.06 compared to league average lineup.
So the total difference from best to worst is around 16 runs or ~1.5 wins (assuming everyone performs at their 50% PECOTA numbers).
Note that who you put in the lineup does matter a lot as doing the same exercise on a lineup of 9 of a given player (again using PECOTA) gives:
Thomas: +221
Glaus: +192.8
Wells: +95.6
Overbay: +87.5
Rios: -38.6
Zaun: -50.2
Johnson: -65.1
Hill: -94.6
Clayton: -296.8
Swapping in Adams for Clayton gives +21.64 for the optimal lineup. And 9 Adams give -219.
You recall correctly from the book. Remember that the differences are minor, but the three best hitters should hit 1, 2, 4. The next two best hitters should hit 3 and 5. Then 6 and on in decreasing quality. The 1 and 2 hitters should walk more (or have more of their value in their walking ability) than the 4 and 5 hitters. In some ways you're 5 hitter should be better than your 3 hitter due to the base/out situations he comes up in. Your base stealer threat ideally should hit 5th or 6th in front of the singles hitters rather than the power hitters.
With the Jays this means the ideal lineup would probably be (according to the simple book, using PECOTA to judge ability):
1 Thomas
2 Glaus
3 Rios
4 Wells
5 Overbay
6 Zaun
7 Hill
8 Johnson
9 Clayton
Although if you use the table 52 data which is the run value of each event by batting order (treating all BB as NIBB; since PECOTA doesn't predict HBP, which hurts Johnson a bit since he is a HBP magnet, I'll give each Jay 3 HBP/year except Reed who I'll give 15; giving everyone 0 RBOE) you get:
1 Thomas
2 Glaus
3 Rios
4 Wells
5 Overbay
6 Zaun
7 Johnson
8 Hill
9 Clayton
which gives a run value of +13.89 above a league average lineup (which is the same as the rule of thumb order but switch hill/johnson, probably because of using HBP instead of straight OPS)
compared to one of the worst lineups:
1 Clayton
2 Hill
3 Johnson
4 Zaun
5 Rios
6 Wells
7 Overbay
8 Glaus
9 Thomas
which gives a run value of -2.06 compared to league average lineup.
So the total difference from best to worst is around 16 runs or ~1.5 wins (assuming everyone performs at their 50% PECOTA numbers).
Note that who you put in the lineup does matter a lot as doing the same exercise on a lineup of 9 of a given player (again using PECOTA) gives:
Thomas: +221
Glaus: +192.8
Wells: +95.6
Overbay: +87.5
Rios: -38.6
Zaun: -50.2
Johnson: -65.1
Hill: -94.6
Clayton: -296.8
Swapping in Adams for Clayton gives +21.64 for the optimal lineup. And 9 Adams give -219.
I agree strongly with having your best hitters, and best OBP guys, bat in the first couple of slots in the batting order, and without looking at the specific elaborate stats and predictions, that is what I based my argument on batting Overbay second on. I think having Overbay bat second is the perfect merger between what you suggested based on PECOTA projections and what we could reasonably expect to see in a major league lineup. I don't have much of a problem with Wells batting second and foregoing any type of prototypical #2 guy, but barring that, I think Reed (or Rios) followed by Overbay and then the mashers is a terrific lineup. I look at Overbay and I see a guy who could theoretically profile as a #3 hitter on some teams, and in Wells a guy who could profile as a cleanup guy on some teams; by my logic, you simply cut out the typical bunter/stickhandler #2 guy and slip those two guys up to #2 and #3 respectively. Then in the 4-5 hole we have Thomas on Glaus, who are both really #5 guys anyway.
I have yet to see a convincing argument for Rios over Overbay in the two-hole. If Rios hits his way to the top of the lineup, I'd rather see him replace Reeder in the leadoff slot. He's got more power than your typical leadoff guy, but how bout dropping Reed down to #9 in that scenario? I know the merits of this have been discussed, but I still like the idea of creating a lineup with continuity as it switches over. If Rios bats leadoff, he'll probably only bat leadoff once in a game, so why not put decent OBP guys in the #8/#9 holes for his later at bats? That way your BEST hitters receive the largest number of plate appearances over the course of the season, but the on-base skills of lesser power guys like Reed and Hill are still utilized to strengthen the lineup's potential for scoring runs, especially in the later innings.
I have yet to see a convincing argument for Rios over Overbay in the two-hole. If Rios hits his way to the top of the lineup, I'd rather see him replace Reeder in the leadoff slot. He's got more power than your typical leadoff guy, but how bout dropping Reed down to #9 in that scenario? I know the merits of this have been discussed, but I still like the idea of creating a lineup with continuity as it switches over. If Rios bats leadoff, he'll probably only bat leadoff once in a game, so why not put decent OBP guys in the #8/#9 holes for his later at bats? That way your BEST hitters receive the largest number of plate appearances over the course of the season, but the on-base skills of lesser power guys like Reed and Hill are still utilized to strengthen the lineup's potential for scoring runs, especially in the later innings.
Micheal, you might want to consider doing those lineups w/ splits adjustments, you'll get a different picture.
SNB, I love you! Ok, I'm a little too excited but we see completely eye to eye on this. I had posted the following a week ago:
1 Prototypical 3-hole hitter (Wells)
2 Next best hitter (Rios)
3 Next best hitter (Overbay)
4 Cleanup guy (Thomas)
5 Power bat (Glaus - we have the luxury of having 2 "cleanup" guys)
6 Hill
7 Clayton(or whoever our shortstop ends up being)
8 "leadoff guy" (Johnson)
9 prototypical #2 batter - high OBP (Zaun)
Split adjustments are harder to run as I'd need the players stats against LHP and RHP (total stats including BB, K, 3B, etc. not just OPS)
Running the different lineups in this thread (assuming when the person didn't say past top 4 it is decreasing order of skill, and Clayton at SS) I get:
Greenfrog: +10.69
Zeppelinkm: +11.75
JustinD: +10.37
Michael (Rios 1st): +12.1087
Michael (Reed 1st): +12.1086
SNB (Rios 1st, Reed 6th): +11.75
SNB (Rios 1st, Reed 9th): +10.87
SheldonL: +9.15
So we can see that, based on the model from the book with complete stats and based on PECOTA 50% all of these lineups are about right and within 5 runs or half a win of the optimal lineup (given these 9 players).
Running the different lineups in this thread (assuming when the person didn't say past top 4 it is decreasing order of skill, and Clayton at SS) I get:
Greenfrog: +10.69
Zeppelinkm: +11.75
JustinD: +10.37
Michael (Rios 1st): +12.1087
Michael (Reed 1st): +12.1086
SNB (Rios 1st, Reed 6th): +11.75
SNB (Rios 1st, Reed 9th): +10.87
SheldonL: +9.15
So we can see that, based on the model from the book with complete stats and based on PECOTA 50% all of these lineups are about right and within 5 runs or half a win of the optimal lineup (given these 9 players).
im very glad to see there are jays fans out there that agree with me and the idea of hitting hill in the #2 hole. paul lo duca is a career .290 hitter who managed to hit .318 and score 80 runs in 124 games hitting in front of beltran-delgado-wright because apparently he saw a lot of fastballs over the plate, with teams being hesitant to walk him. if you take out hill's april last year and assume that was some sort of mlb-adjustment period, he hit .307 the rest of the way, and that includes a .223 slumping august (so its not like i just choose to remove slumps to skew the stats). as a #2 hitter last year, hill hit .315 and scored 9 runs in 12 games (granted, a very small sample size). to me, aaron hill provides a lot of the future of this franchise, and giving him the chance to develop up there this year would be a good idea. i would also point out that hill is a good aggressive base runner, and was 2nd on the team in sacrifice hits last season, so he provides the typical bunt option from your #2 hitter as well (even if gibbons chooses not to use it). the other thing this does is make the lineup's bottom MUCH more dangerous, considering that u have an overbay or rios batting #7, depending on how you build your lineup. personally, and i know i am crazy and it will never happen, but here are the lineups i would like to see. i know everyone is all excited about rios, but he has established himself as a guy with good gap power, and a guy who can drive in runs from a more traditional RBI spot. lets give the kid hill a chance to shine up there, and if he isnt producing we can slot him back down to #8 or #9.
VS RHP - johnson-hill-wells-thomas-overbay-rios-glaus-zaun-clayton
VS LHP - johnson-hill-wells-thomas-glaus-rios-overbay-zaun-clayton (and if it really bothers you having back-to-back lefties, let zaun bat #9 there)
and before i get bashed. let me acknowledge the fact that i recognize that it's near impossible to bat a guy like glaus #7 - his ego couldn't handle it, and his bat probably wouldn't produce as much in a situation where he feels slighted as a #7 hitter, especially since he mashes so many HRs. but we all witnessed his decline towards the end of the season - he completely fell off the map, and didn't drive in a run for like 3 weeks. he also didn't hit very well against RHP all year, regardless of his 26hr-73rbi (a .334obp and .805ops is nothing to get googly over). then again, there's always the chance with the big hurt around that glaus doesn't feel as much pressure as the primary team power slugger and can relax and not need to press, and maybe have a little more of a productive season.
just my two cents!
VS RHP - johnson-hill-wells-thomas-overbay-rios-glaus-zaun-clayton
VS LHP - johnson-hill-wells-thomas-glaus-rios-overbay-zaun-clayton (and if it really bothers you having back-to-back lefties, let zaun bat #9 there)
and before i get bashed. let me acknowledge the fact that i recognize that it's near impossible to bat a guy like glaus #7 - his ego couldn't handle it, and his bat probably wouldn't produce as much in a situation where he feels slighted as a #7 hitter, especially since he mashes so many HRs. but we all witnessed his decline towards the end of the season - he completely fell off the map, and didn't drive in a run for like 3 weeks. he also didn't hit very well against RHP all year, regardless of his 26hr-73rbi (a .334obp and .805ops is nothing to get googly over). then again, there's always the chance with the big hurt around that glaus doesn't feel as much pressure as the primary team power slugger and can relax and not need to press, and maybe have a little more of a productive season.
just my two cents!
I want Overbay batting behind someone who can run a little bit. someone who is at least quick enough to get down to second base in time to mess with the double play. If Overbay hits behind Thomas or Glaus, you're looking at 25 GDPs. If Overbay hits behind Thomas... hell, the first baseman wouldn't even have to play on the bag.
I also like trying to separate the two left-handed bats as far as possible.
I also like trying to separate the two left-handed bats as far as possible.
Reed Johnson is the Wild Card in much of this discussion. If last year was a career year, and Sparky returns to the level of 2003-2005, Rios will be the leadoff hitter by the All-Star Break.
Never mind his ego - Glaus can't hit seventh because no manager in the history of the world would choose to bat the man who led the team in runs scored (and by a sizeable margin) in the bottom third of the order. At least, I hope not. Glaus gets on base too often to have that skill wasted by getting on base in front of the 8-9 hitters. Plus, whatever the actual merits, when you hit your top home run hitter seventh, everybody in the clubhouse thinks you're barmy and that never works out either.
So against RH, I expect to see Johnson-Overbay-Wells-Thomas-Glaus-Rios-Zaun-Hill-Clayton. (I'd flip Thomas and Glaus my own self, but it's no big deal.)
And against LH, Johnson-Rios-Wells-Thomas-Glaus-Overbay-Hill-Phillips-Clayton.
Never mind his ego - Glaus can't hit seventh because no manager in the history of the world would choose to bat the man who led the team in runs scored (and by a sizeable margin) in the bottom third of the order. At least, I hope not. Glaus gets on base too often to have that skill wasted by getting on base in front of the 8-9 hitters. Plus, whatever the actual merits, when you hit your top home run hitter seventh, everybody in the clubhouse thinks you're barmy and that never works out either.
So against RH, I expect to see Johnson-Overbay-Wells-Thomas-Glaus-Rios-Zaun-Hill-Clayton. (I'd flip Thomas and Glaus my own self, but it's no big deal.)
And against LH, Johnson-Rios-Wells-Thomas-Glaus-Overbay-Hill-Phillips-Clayton.
Gotta say I'm in 100% agreement with Magpie's lineup w/ Glaus hitting 5th.
My preference against RH is the following:
Rios, Overbay, Wells, Thomas, Glaus, Lind, Hill, Zaun, Clayton
Against LH, I would substitute Lind for Johnson.
My logic is that Lind adds another LH bat to the line-up, and the guy is going to hit. It would be a big upgrade on defence in left field though.
I think Rios, although not a big OBP guy, will thrive in the lead-off role with all of the big boppers coming up behind him.
VS RHP - johnson-hill-wells-thomas-overbay-rios-glaus-zaun-clayton
VS LHP - johnson-hill-wells-thomas-glaus-rios-overbay-zaun-clayton (and if it really bothers you having back-to-back lefties, let zaun bat #9 there)
BigTimeRoyalsFan, I like your idea of Glaus hitting in the spot you put him in. Under mine and SNB's idea, he would hit 5th (to emotionally coddle him and not make too big of a splash...ie. A-Rod hitting in the 8th spot) because the leadoff and #2 hitter bat in the 8th and 9th spots.
I like th idea. Oh and btw, look out for those Royals, they're going to surprise alot especially that Teahen fellow!
I wonder if you should have a different lineup at home verses the road. Glaus in particular, at least in 2006 had massive home /road splits, not surprising, given his extreme fly ball hitting approach which is rewarded amply at the Rogers Centre.
Just another consideration. A guy could spend a lot of time thinking about this. Most of you are familiar with this tool to help in these type of discussions.
Just another consideration. A guy could spend a lot of time thinking about this. Most of you are familiar with this tool to help in these type of discussions.
I voted Rios, probably without enough thought, because I think the next phase of his development ( he's already morphed from an extreme ground ball hitter into quite a pull, fly ball hitter) requires him to become a much more patient hitter capable of drawing walks. Batting ahead of the home run producers may encourage this, and I'm also quite concerned that his fourth best A.L. BPS verses fastballs will lead to a steady diet of breaking pitches.
How about a campaign for "Rios as a leadoff hitter"? Personally, I think that's where his future lies.
Rios as a leadoff hitter...he could be the Jays version of Soriano. Rios had a better age 25 season than Soriano did, he already takes more walks than Soriano ever did (until last year). Rios won't ever be the stolen base threat Soriano is, but he has learned to pick his spots better apparently ( I cringed a lot less than watching him attempt SB in 2005). If Reed Johnson continues to perform near 2006 levels, there's no need for another leadoff hitter, but if he regresses, the Jays will need someone to take that role. And I can't see anyone else on the roster, with the possible exception of Hill, filling the role (not that the leadoff guy can't be a slow OBP machine like half the hitters can be, but I can't see the Jays trying it).