Who are we to second guess the team now? I say they blow them out.

I have faith in the Great Whitt North.

I think Canada will win but what happens if Canada loses to Mexico and the US wins.

3 teams will be 2-1. What is the tiebreaker?

Runs Against, I believe but it wouldn't include games against South Africa.

Yes, its earned runs against. Because of the 2-0 USA-Mexico game and the amount of runs the fact that Canada gave up six earned runs today, the game against Mexico is likely still a must-win.

If VBF is incorrect and the earned runs (7) given up vs. South Africa count, then it is certainly a must win.

If VBF is correct, then at present, USA has given up a total of 8 earned runs in the two games combined, Canada 6, and Mexico 2. That means that if Canada gives up 3 or more earned runs and loses, vs. Mexico, they are out. Were Mexico to win 1-0, Canada and Mexico would advance and the US would be out.

That said, we can clinch advancement tonight with a win for the South Africans over Mexico...

So wait, if we lose 2-0, not only is the U.S. out, but we play Korea?

If we win, the U.S. is in and we play Japan?

Hmm...

The second round is another round robin between Korea, Japan and two of Canada, Mexico and the US.

Oh, ok that makes sense.

USA has given up a total of 8 earned runs in the two games combined, Canada 6, and Mexico 2

Haven't they given up Canada 8, and Mexico 0? They've scored against Canada 6, and Mexico 2.

Canada has given up, U.S. 6, S.A. 8 = 14

Mexico has given up, U.S. 2, S.A. 4 = 6

Tues. March 7
USA vs. Mexico	
	2 - 0	
Canada vs. South Africa
	11 - 8

Wed. March 8	
USA vs. Canada
	6 - 8
Mexico vs. South Africa
	10 - 4

Thurs. March 9	
Canada vs. Mexico
	8pm et
Fri. March 10
USA vs. South Africa
	3pm et

So if I understand correctly, if Canada loses 2-0 tomorrow, the Americans would have to allow at least 8 runs, and one more for each additional run above 2 Canada would allow for Canada to advance. If they allow fewer, Canada gets left behind. But if Canada beats Loaiza's butt, it's a parade down Yonge St.

And if Canada wins, will they play Japan next?

Geoff, the games vs. South Africa do not count in a three-way tie-breaker situation.

USA has given up 8 (8 vs. Canada, 0 vs. Mexico), Canada has given up 6 (vs. USA), and Mexico has given up 2 (vs. USA).

If Canada wins the game today, they will finish first in the pool at 3-0, with USA second at 2-1.

If Mexico wins, it is the three-way 2-1 tie-breaker. The only way that Canada can avoid finishing third (and being eliminated) in such a scenario is if they give up only 1 or 2 runs in the loss. If they give up three or more and lose, taking their runs against over 8, then they will be eliminated.

The next round is a round-robin, Geoff. If Canada wins today, they will play each of USA, Japan, and Korea in the next round.

It's amazing that Canada could survive the South Africa game, upset the U.S., and still be no better than even odds to be in the top two of a four-team pool.

Ah, well. We knew it would all come down to this game anyway. Gotta play it, might as well win it.

Depending on the sportsbook, Canada is either a small favourite (-116 at Pinnacle) or dead even (pick 'em at The Greek).

Canada losing and giving up 2 or fewer runs would make my day.

Back to the drawing board Selig!

I don't think people realize the U.S. has a real shot at being elimated in the first round...

We're getting destroyed 9-1....can't believe this...