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Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, two outs, down one ... who do you most want at the plate? Tell us why!

Roberto Alomar 55 (16.27%)
George Bell 9 (2.66%)
Joe Carter 23 (6.80%)
Carlos Delgado 41 (12.13%)
Tony Fernandez 15 (4.44%)
Paul Molitor 123 (36.39%)
John Olerud 31 (9.17%)
Pat Tabler 23 (6.80%)
Vernon Wells 6 (1.78%)
Other (please specify) 12 (3.55%)
Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, two outs, down one ... who do you most want at the plate? Tell us why! | 23 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, May 03 2006 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#146271) #

Pat Tabler? PAT TABLER? Should we queue up "One of These Things is Not Like the Others"?

Not at all. According to BBRef, Tabler was 43-for-88 (.489 BA!) in his career with the sacks jammed. Nobody has ever been better longer.

 

GrrBear - Wednesday, May 03 2006 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#146273) #
Delgado, because he could at least draw a walk to tie the game, which is not something most of the other players in this poll would do, but he's still got plenty of power to end the game with one swing.

However, if the pitcher is Dennis Eckersley, then the answer is obviously Robbie Alomar.
jayjay - Wednesday, May 03 2006 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#146278) #
Come on, this is an easy one...
Game 6, 2-2 count, Henderson, Molitor aboard, down 1...

Joe Carter. How can you deny his ability to get a clutch hit in a BJ uniform?
Give the man his appropriate credit.
Adrock - Wednesday, May 03 2006 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#146280) #

Well, in real life Blue Jays history, it would probably be Roberto Alomar.  I don't know what his actual LIPS AVG was from 91-93 but he seemed close to invincible.

However, on the heels of a tremendous April, I voted "other" for Frank Catalanotto.  If all you need is a single, I have full confidence that the Cat will deliver.  He's a professional hitter who doesn't seem overmatched against anybody.  Sure the .500 OBP is unlikely to last, but Frankie's a singles machine.

 

Mike D - Wednesday, May 03 2006 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#146286) #

I voted Alomar.  I saw him hit two game-tying last-chance homers in the same game against Cleveland -- one from each side of the plate!  (They did lose ultimately, alas.)

Jayjay, I'd be more likely to pick Carter if there were one out.  He was an excellent source of sacrifice flies.

And, looking it up...indeed, Joe's the all-time SF king for the Jays, despite posting considerably fewer plate appearances than runner-up Delgado.

HollywoodHartman - Wednesday, May 03 2006 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#146288) #
Well 13 years ago in a similar poll I voted for Carter, worked out for me then...
Magpie - Wednesday, May 03 2006 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#146291) #
As A Blue Jay, Tabler went 3-8 with 3 BB and 10 RBI with the bases loaded.

While the greatest hitter in team history is Carlos Delgado, and the greatest single season offensive performance is either Delgado in 2000 or John Olerud in 1993 - the one Blue Jay who delivered exactly what his team needed, time after time after time was Paul Molitor in 1993.

Runner-up: George Bell in 1989. Far, far indeed,  from his best season, but for the same reason as Molitor. Whether it was a sac fly, or a single, or whatever... you needed it , he provided it.

VBF - Wednesday, May 03 2006 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#146292) #

From the 1993 World Series Video:

I knew if I hit a home run, we'd win the world series. But that's not percentages. Instead I'd look for the pitch to keep the inning alive.

--Paul Molitor

Even with the bases loaded and everyone else thinking the same thing (any on-base activity wins the game), I'd go with Molitor.

King Ryan - Wednesday, May 03 2006 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#146294) #
Carlos Delgado.

Becuase he's the best hitter on the list.
Flex - Wednesday, May 03 2006 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#146295) #
It was a close call between Alomar and Molitor. In the end, I went with Alomar's princely sense of destiny in those situations over Molitor's cool professionalism.
Mick Doherty - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#146297) #
KR, I don't see how you can reasonably defend the idea that Delgado is the best hitter on a list that includes Molitor. Sure, Delgado will hit his 400th homer this year, but even as a power guy, he'll be another 150 XBH short of Molly's 953 career -- just not as many were homers for Molitor. And the speed issue, which is of course fundamentally different from "hitting" per se, isn't even close. That's not even to mention Molitor's career batting average (.306) was 22 points higher than Delgado's is right now. There's a reason Molitor's in the HOF, while Delgado may be some day but is right now probably a 50/50 proposition. (Yes, I think he should and will get in. But he's not there yet and his BBRef most similar player is one Albert Belle, who shouldn't make any Cooperstown plans any time soon.)

Incidentally, I didn't vote for either, swayed by the magic of Pat Tabler's bases-loaded history.
John Northey - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#146298) #
I was split between Robbie and Bell.  Alomar was amazing with the game on the line from 91-93.  Bell would probably be a better choice with one out as he could make solid contact with a ball over his head if he wanted to (and he probably did a few times) but his disappearing the final week of 1987 (largely because he did swing at everything) pushes him behind Alomar.  Molitor, Olerud (1993), Delgado are all tempting as they were all better pure hitters, but no one reaches Alomar (outside of maybe Carter) for timing.  Fernandez, like Bell, would be ideal with 0 or 1 out (Damaso Garcia too). 
Geoff - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#146301) #
Reed Johnson. That boy knows how to take a pitch. He hasn't shown a great aptitude for magneticism with the bases loaded in a pressure situation but I'd like to see if he could attract a pitch to his elbow when it would help his team most.
slitheringslider - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 02:30 AM EDT (#146302) #
My first two choices are Carlos Delgado and John Olerud because a) they are both great hitters and b) of the bunch, they are the most likely to draw a walk. In the given situation, the priority is definitely first to tie the game, then to win the game. With that in mind, I give the nod to the high on-base guys rather than the high BA guys (ie. Molitor and Alomar). Obviously, what we are speaking here are all relative, Molitor and Alomar both have .360+ career OBP, but both Olerud and Delgado have career OBPs near .400. Therefore, Olerud and Delgado have a higher likelihood of getting on base, thus a higher likelihood of the runner scoring from third.

If we are playing to win it right there, right then, then my choice would be Molitor, because he is the best contact hitter of the bunch. Although guys like Joe Carter, who hit the most important hit in Jays history and George Bell, the only MVP in Jays history deserves some merit, but from an statistical standpoint, we have much better odds going with the other guys.

mathesond - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#146305) #
I voted for Wells, since he's in the prime of his career. I mean, how long has it been since George Bell picked up a bat in a major-league game, anyway?
GrrBear - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#146307) #
Mick Doherty said:
KR, I don't see how you can reasonably defend the idea that Delgado is the best hitter on a list that includes Molitor. Sure, Delgado will hit his 400th homer this year, but even as a power guy, he'll be another 150 XBH short of Molly's 953 career -- just not as many were homers for Molitor. And the speed issue, which is of course fundamentally different from "hitting" per se, isn't even close. That's not even to mention Molitor's career batting average (.306) was 22 points higher than Delgado's is right now. There's a reason Molitor's in the HOF, while Delgado may be some day but is right now probably a 50/50 proposition. (Yes, I think he should and will get in. But he's not there yet and his BBRef most similar player is one Albert Belle, who shouldn't make any Cooperstown plans any time soon.)

Delgado's best OPS+ seasons: 182, 161, 160, 153, 150, 141
Molitor's best OPS+ seasons: 161, 147, 142, 140, 138, 126
Molitor had speed, Delgado has power. Molitor's career OBP is .369, while Delgado's career OBP is .393. Given Delgado has been fairly healthy throughout his career, it is not unreasonable to suggest he will collect another 200 extra-base hits in his career.  The Mets sure seem to think he'll do it. :)  I think Delgado has had a higher peak and will probably at least have as valuable a career as Molitor, at least in terms of hitting.  Once you bring defense into it...  When he was younger, Molitor could play second, third, and shortstop, so that has some added value over what Delgado does at first base.  Considering the whole package, as players they are probably pretty close to even, but in the scenario the poll describes, I'll take Carlos' patience over Molitor's situational hitting.
js_magloire - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#146308) #
Delgado is the best hitter in Blue Jays history, (as a Blue Jay). Obviously if you are only down by 1, you want the best contact hitter on the list, which would be Paul Molitor. However, if the question is down by anything but 1, like 2 or 3, then the hands down answer is Delgado. He has the terrific power, and his BA seems to fluctuate every other year between something around .300, and something around .270, so his lifetime BA is a little misleading depending on the year. Carter is the poster boy for an overrated clutch hitter in the sabremetric community that tries to measure such things, because memory often remembers one instance and generalizes from there, but in his career he wasn't so special (as seen in the obvious .259 career BA).
Jonny German - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#146310) #

Mick, I don't see how it's relevant to compare Molitor's counting stats to Delgado's when Molly played 8 years more than what Delgado has so far. And even moreso, Molitor's batting average 'advantage' is totally meaningless - Delgado has a higher OBP and a higher SLG.

Now, Delgado is unlikely to remain a reasonably effective player through age 41 as Molitor did, and Molitor was most definitely an asset in the speed department (504 SB at a 79% success rate). But a better hitter than Delgado has been thus far? Not even close. As mentioned, coming into this season Delgado was ahead of him in OBP (24 points) and SLG (111 points). That translates to a 142 OPS+ for Delgado, 122 OPS+ for Molitor. And at Delgado's career .489 XBH / G, he's two and a half seasons from passing Molitor in the 'total extra base hits category'. That'd be halfway through his age 36 season. It'll take much more than normal age-related decline to stop Delgado from passing Molitor there.

Albert Belle isn't in the Hall because his career was cut short by injury and because he had the 'bad apple' label. It has nothing to do with how good of a hitter he was when he was playing.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#146313) #

Against a right-handed pitcher, Olerud '93 version.  Against a lefty, Molitor '93-'94 version.  That season Olerud had everything working. We don't have plate apperance distributions, but my guess is that against right-handed pitchers, his line was something like 25% line drives, 25% ground balls, 18% fly balls, 25% walks and 7% strikeouts.  That's pretty much ideal in the bases loaded, 2 out, one run down situation. 

 

Craig B - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#146348) #

For me, it came down to Fernandez, Alomar and Delgado, three players who always raised their games when it was all on the line and have great numbers in bases-loaded and in RBI situations.   Alomar was great with the sacks jammed, and so was Delgado, but I gave it to Carlos on the basis that he did it for longer and he's not Roberto F. Alomar.  Alomar did hit .442 as a Blue Jay with the bases loaded, so the Alomar boosters here have a real good point.

Craig B - Thursday, May 04 2006 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#146349) #
Molitor, incidentally, was not notably good in RBI or bases-loaded situations (fitting my image of him as an undermotivated floater).
Magpie - Friday, May 05 2006 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#146383) #
We don't have plate apperance distributions, but my guess is that against right-handed pitchers, his line was something like 25% line drives, 25% ground balls, 18% fly balls, 25% walks and 7% strikeouts.

Here's what we do know. Olerud had 466 plate appearances vs RHP in 1993. He had 80 walks (17%) and struck out 42 times (9%).

He also had 150 hits (32%). He batted .396, with an OBP of .500, while slugging .678.

He didn't even make the cut, but Fred McGriff might have had the greatest three year run (1988-1990) of any hitter in team history. Changing offensive standards have masked the fact that the only offensive seasons in team history clearly more productive than McGriff's run are Delgado's 2000 and Olerud's 1993. And McGriff's three years are essentially identical in value - he never had one special  career year that stands out from the rest -  he was just consistently great.

Here are the Top 15 single season OPS+ in team history:

John Olerud, 1993         185
Carlos Delgado, 2000     182
Fred McGriff, 1989         161
Carlos Delgado, 2003     160
Fred McGriff, 1988        157
Fred McGriff, 1990        157
Carlos Delgado 2002      153
Carlos Delgado, 1998     150
Jesse Barfield, 1986      147
George Bell, 1987          146
Shawn Green, 1999       143
Jesse Barfield, 1985      142
Paul Molitor, 1993         142
Carlos Delgado, 2001     141
Roberto Alomar, 1993    140


Mike Green - Friday, May 05 2006 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#146393) #

Thanks, Magpie for the R/L figures.  Had the situation been different (say runner on 1st, 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth and down by 1), McGriff or Delgado would have been my choice against a right-handed pitcher, and if forced to choose, I probably would flip a coin.

Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, two outs, down one ... who do you most want at the plate? Tell us why! | 23 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.