Quick, before Santana or Bedard go anywhere -- best '08 "Big Three" in a current MLB pitching rotation?
| ARI (Webb, Haren, R. Johnson) |  19 (13.01%) |
| ATL (Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine) | 0 (0.00%) |
| BOS (Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka) | 18 (12.33%) |
| DET (Verlander, Bonderman, Willis) | 15 (10.27%) |
| LAA (Lackey, Escobar, Garland) | 7 (4.79%) |
| LAD (Lowe, Penny, Schmidt) | 5 (3.42%) |
| SD (Peavy, C. Young, Maddux) | 15 (10.27%) |
| SF (Zito, Cain, Lincecum) | 4 (2.74%) |
| SEA (F. Hernandez, Washburn, Batista) | 0 (0.00%) |
| TOR (Halladay, Burnett. McGowan) | 63 (43.15%) |
146 votes | 15 featured comments
There are five teams from each leage listed (alphabetically by city
name); the last team cut from the list was the NL's CHC (Zambrano,
Lilly, Marquis). Anyone else missing? Make your case here!
Anyone who votes for Seattle is nuts, unless they've found some way to start King Felix Hernandez four days a week. I'd much rather head into a big series behind Kazmir/Shields/Garzastine, or Pettitte/Wang/Joba, or Buehrle/Vazquez/Contreras, than Seattle's big three.
I voted for the Jays because I am a big homer.
I voted for the Jays because I am a big homer.
Im voting for Other: Sabathia, Carmona and Westbrook
Actually I voted Jays, I must be a homer too. But they seriously look best to my biased eyes. Not sure how Cleveland's 3 was left off for Seattle's group.
I voted for Arizona's group. If RJ stays healthy next year, that is the best of the bunch.
Webb and Haren both established themselves as Cy Young front runners, and I'm not sure any other group has 2 starters in that class quite yet.
For LAA, I'd add Weaver > Garland.
I voted for Toronto, and I really don't think it's homerism. The other rotations have at least one major question mark, or just not the talent that the Jays have. I'm not sure how Haren will play in the BOB, it's a homer-friendly park, Haren had his troubles with control in the second half last season, and that division is full of good young hitting talent (except SF of course).
- AZD: The Big Unit isn't what he used to be, even if healthy
- ATL: Neither is Glavine, and Hudson must prove he can be an ace again
- DET: Definitely not sold on Willis
- LAA: Garland?
- LAD: Penny seems to have turned a corner, you know what you're getting with Lowe, Schmidt if healthy he has the upside to make this set a winner, but upon investigation, the kind of injuries he has aren't good.
- SD: Maddux ain't what he used to be, he now pretty much an average pitcher, #3-4 guy class.
- SEA: That's a joke, right?
Realistic choices, in my mind, include:
- BOS: Not entirely sold on Matsuzaka, but in terms of 3 most reliable upsides, I'd say yes.
- SF: Definite possibility if it all clicks. Zito wasn't all that
amazing in 2007, though, and young pitchers can break your heart. Are
Linecum and Cain polished enough to get past that? Both of them?
- TOR: Could actually be a legitimate winner, but Burnett needs to show he can be consistent and healthy, and McGowan needs to not regress. I think Burnett may have turned the corner, McGowan I dunno. Mental makeup is much better, but he'll have a bunch of adjustments to make in season 2, they always do.
- Clleveland. Agree that they should be on this list, even with the playoff implosion.
I should have added - if LAD was (Penny, Lowe, Billingsley), that becomes my #1. I know Schmidt is the bigger name, but Billingsley is the real planned #3 in LA for 2008, and is past his sophomore jinx year with flying colors. Schmidt has to be looked as a possible bonus at this point, and not much more. Hence LA's fishing in Japanese waters for Kuroda. From the article:
"Kuroda, 32, will join a rotation that already features Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley. The fifth starter will come from a group of candidates that includes Jason Schmidt and Esteban Loaiza."
Which pretty much tells you all you need to know.
I don't know how you can't classify Schilling in with the rest of the over the hill gang (Johnson, Maddux, Glavine...etc.)
Schilling's era is going to keep going up. I expect him to be slightly below average next year
Apologies to the Indians. I can't seem to get my head wrapped around
Carmona and Westbrook being as good as they are -- FWIW, the SEA trio
listed had an ERA+, when added together, of 311 in 2007, while CLE's
three was at 401, So yes, obviously I missed on that one when contstructing the poll.
I do think ARI, DET and SD are all clearly better than CLE, though -- that's subjective of course -- so no harm, no foul. Of course, I also don't think TOR is nearly as good as the 48% it's receiving would suggest. ARI in the NL and DET in the AL have the chance to get to 60 wins from their front three, unlikely as that is in all three cases -- I don't think either CLE or TOR could reasonably even hope for more than 52-55.
That said, I should have left the poll in its original form and cut both CHC and SEA and inclueded "Other (who?) as an option.
I am surprised that ATL isn't getting any knee-jerk force-of-habit votes, though!
I do think ARI, DET and SD are all clearly better than CLE, though -- that's subjective of course -- so no harm, no foul. Of course, I also don't think TOR is nearly as good as the 48% it's receiving would suggest. ARI in the NL and DET in the AL have the chance to get to 60 wins from their front three, unlikely as that is in all three cases -- I don't think either CLE or TOR could reasonably even hope for more than 52-55.
That said, I should have left the poll in its original form and cut both CHC and SEA and inclueded "Other (who?) as an option.
I am surprised that ATL isn't getting any knee-jerk force-of-habit votes, though!
SD threesome will probably have the best numbers, but they play in a pitchers park in a one of the worst divisions in baseball. I voted simply for best 3 pitchers. Which they are not. In my opinion Halladay is better than Webb, Haren better than Burnett and McGowan better than old man Simmons. Not the least bit biased.
As for Detroit, Willis was horrible last year! I do believe switching league's may help him as he seems to thrive against hitters with limited exposure to him. I'm guessing he puts up a pretty respectable first half or maybe first season, but will then go downhill as he did in the National league.
Mick . . . wIns? Really?
The other thing to consider is environment. SD and SEA are playing in pretty extreme pitchers' parks, for instance, while BOS and ARI are amongst the better hitters' parks. (That being said, Fenway has some odd handedness effects, and actually suppresses homeruns overall). This has to affect your judgment some.
Another part of environment is defense. Tampa has reasonable pitching (not quite good enough to make the poll, maybe, but quite good), but horrifically bad defense (as measured by THT they were 150 plays below average on the year), while Toronto's defense was all-world (+100), making their pitching look good.
THT just changed their Fielding/Pitching graph, so I'm not totally sure what the new graph actually shows.
The other thing to consider is environment. SD and SEA are playing in pretty extreme pitchers' parks, for instance, while BOS and ARI are amongst the better hitters' parks. (That being said, Fenway has some odd handedness effects, and actually suppresses homeruns overall). This has to affect your judgment some.
Another part of environment is defense. Tampa has reasonable pitching (not quite good enough to make the poll, maybe, but quite good), but horrifically bad defense (as measured by THT they were 150 plays below average on the year), while Toronto's defense was all-world (+100), making their pitching look good.
THT just changed their Fielding/Pitching graph, so I'm not totally sure what the new graph actually shows.
If all pitchers are healthy, my vote goes to Arizona. But, in the real world, health is everything. With that in mind, you might choose the Angels, say, simply because their 3 top starters are decent or better and likely to be healthy.
SD ... play in ... one of the worst divisions in baseball.
No!! Fight the reflex! The NL West had a +32 won-loss differential, and a +128 run differential. It might contain four of the best six teams in the NL next year. Maybe it's one of the three worst divisions in baseball, but certainly not the two worst. Even with the Petco factor the Padres definitely belong in the discussion. I think the Petco factor makes some statheads underappreciate the spectacularly consistent Beastliness that is Jake Peavy. It benefits Chris "29.4% GB career?!" Young a lot, possibly more than any other decent-or-better pitcher in the majors, but it's not like he's some pitch-to-contact meatballer. He makes people miss a lot too. And Maddux is Maddux.
It's hard to say conclusively that any NL team's rotation is better than any above-average AL team's. But the Padres have a case. Given the choice between Peavy/Young/Maddux and Sabathia/Carmona/Westbrook for a three-game series in a neutral park I'd flip a coin; in San Francisco or Seattle I'd definitely take the Padres guys.
No!! Fight the reflex! The NL West had a +32 won-loss differential, and a +128 run differential. It might contain four of the best six teams in the NL next year. Maybe it's one of the three worst divisions in baseball, but certainly not the two worst. Even with the Petco factor the Padres definitely belong in the discussion. I think the Petco factor makes some statheads underappreciate the spectacularly consistent Beastliness that is Jake Peavy. It benefits Chris "29.4% GB career?!" Young a lot, possibly more than any other decent-or-better pitcher in the majors, but it's not like he's some pitch-to-contact meatballer. He makes people miss a lot too. And Maddux is Maddux.
It's hard to say conclusively that any NL team's rotation is better than any above-average AL team's. But the Padres have a case. Given the choice between Peavy/Young/Maddux and Sabathia/Carmona/Westbrook for a three-game series in a neutral park I'd flip a coin; in San Francisco or Seattle I'd definitely take the Padres guys.
If you were going to include CHC, I don't think most people would disagree with Zambrano/Lilly/Hill as the top 3 (rather than Zambrano/Lilly/Marquis).