Justin Verlander is clearly the best potential player of the group (yes, better than Papelbon) and given that there's some chance hes going to be the best starter for a team that could suprise everyone and contend, he gets my vote.

To recap his career to far, he was a 2nd overall pick in 04, and  in 118.2 career minor league innings (A/AA) he is 11-2, has a k/bb ratio of 136/26, an era of 1.29 and a whip of 0.90. Aka pretty good

After last season, Shelton looks like he's for real to me. He could be making the leap to superstardom or be settling in as just a good hitter, but either way I like his chances THIS SEASON better than anyone else's, even a guy like Verlander. He's looked good but he's still got 30+ more starts to get through, and more often than not guys as young as him either get injured or don't have the consistency right away to dominate.

I thought that Papelbon would be most likely to get a nod; his quick rise to a shaky closer's spot reminds me of Huston Street last year. Unlike Street, he'll be anchoring a very poor bullpen (especially if Foulke can't come back) for a team that has the lineup and rotation to contend. Relative value to a team still influences award voters, and if Papelbon succeeds in his role, which looks highly likely at this point, he'll have patched the one significant hole in the Red Sox, while Verlander probably won't be carrying the Tigers' rotation, which already has a "designated" ace in the Gambler and a potential ace in Bonderman.  Also, Verlander's win total will probably be significantly hurt by the Tigers' awful bullpen and middling offense, while Papelbon's team should give him lots of save opportunities.