He's going to have an off-year and hit 48.

Agreed.  I'll say 49.

I'll take 32.

Maybe it's my imagination, but it sure feels like Rogers Centre was insane for HRs for righties last year. John McDonald and Jose Molina both had (or tied) career highs in HRs at 35 yrs old. John Buck easily had his best year. Alex Gonzalez had the best few months of his career in Toronto. Wells massacred the ball at home and and of course Bautista demolished his career pattern last year. So, I think one of two things will happen. Either Toronto will continue to be a HR haven for RH or, more likely, it will regress to being a little more neutral and righties will have a harder time hitting HRs. It's impossible to predict what Bautista's pattern will be like because there are so few examples of this in baseball history. He had plenty of ABs before he got to Toronto and hit with mediocre power. At the age of 29, he beats his career high in HRs by 38. That's pretty extraordinary. I think around 30-35 HRs is a reasonable expectation but I think he's more likely to hit 20 than hit 50 again.

41 and I'd be more than happy with that.... I bet the Jays would too.

I'll guess 38 - which would be just fine, assuming Bautista still takes his walks. Hopefully he doesn't go into a "nothing to hit" induced slump too often this year - Delgado used to have those on occasion, to my eyes at least.

28,  There is no way he sees as many pitches to hit as he did last year.  He will either walk a lot or lose patience.  Also, everybody misses one every now and then.  He probably didn't miss too many last year.

37. I believe in the new-and-improved bat, but he was ridiculously "on" last year.

I voted "0-14". I'm going out on a limb and guessing, for the purposes of this thread only, that he's going to be hurt this year.

I'm going with 23 which would still be a career high (excluding last season). I believe last season was a fluke and he will never approach close to 50 HR's again.

I am confident that I am not smarter than AA. Therefore I picked the 35-44 category and for pool purposes I`ll go with a nice round 40.

I'll go 35.

61*

Somewhere between 35-44. He's going to get HBP this year, see many more pitches in the dirt and high inside, pitched around in general with more junk. If the guys in front of him get on base, the guy behind him be a threat, he could hit 50 again. Two big ifs so I'll guess 41.

What the hell, I'll make a wildly optimistic prediction:

63

34

The carrot has spoken. I'll go 34 too and predict a sharp uptick in doubles.

I was thinking 38 myself, but seeing as how AWeb already went there... 37, and a few more walks.

I believe only nine men have had multiple 50 homer seasons, and that includes four men who did their work in the 1995-2005 era, when all kinds of strange things were happening. Otherwise, the club consists of Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Jimmie Foxx and Ralph Kiner. That's pretty fast company. Bautista doesn't have to join that group to earn his money.

I don't think 55 has been taken yet so that's my guess.

In the poll, I predicted the most common answer on the bell curve, but just to stir up trouble here, what the hell ...

Nine.

Matthew E said that he voted 0-14 and Mick says nine, yet the tally indicates 0-14- 1 vote.  I am not going to spend the rest of the afternoon searching for a hanging chad on the interwebs. :)

Michael, I explained my split vote in the comment directly above yours, sir!

All right.  Comment but no vote.  So that's what happened in Florida in 2000!

I think Magpie said 37 also, so tiebreaker, I am going to say he walks 101 times.