Albert Pujols hits 78, sprinkles holy water on the shade of Barry Bonds, causing him to melt like the Wicked Witch of the West.

Kerry Wood breaks the Save record.  I don't think anyone is going to come close to breaking any of those records, but if one were to be broken, this is the one I think has some semblance of plausibility (Wood has to remain healthy, Wood has to pick up all saves for the Cubbies, the Cubbies have to win about 10 more games, all those games have to be save situations, and then the stars have to align perfectly for him to pick up the remaining dozen or so saves he'll require).

Ichiro going nuts and getting the hit record is my bet of that batch. Saves by someone we didn't even think of is #2.

Least likely? Stolen bases (no one within 50) followed by RBI (30 away is as close as I see anyone getting) and strikeouts (could have no one within a hundred but sudden surprises in K's can and do happen).

John, that was my thinking in even including K's as an option -- the sudden surprise. I couldn't bring myself to include wins, though.

Personally, I think someone other than Ichiro will get about 268 hits, including, as a nod to Bonds, 74 bunt singles.  (Not really. But youneverknow.)

I think clearly the Hits record is the most likely to be broken -- hey, it's the only one (2004) on the list that doesn't date back to the last century! That wins record would have gone back two centuries!

I doubt that any of the records will be broken.  The most likely candidate is saves. Papelbon would probably be the favourite among the contenders.

I have to agree with Mr. Green - Papelbon breaking 57 is the only record I can see falling

I also think the Saves single season record is the most likely to fall. It doesn't require a great player (though that doesn't hurt) so much as the right conditions - a good team with a good closer that plays a lot of close games. So a low scoring environment would help.

That sounds like San Diego, actually.

I'm wracking my brain thinking if anyone could possibly break the 106 games pitched mark.  It would have to be Torre managing, and it would likely have to be someone who is used to throwing a lot of innings. 

If Scott Proctor was Left handed, then that mark would fall... or he would in the process.

I completely agree with Magpie.  It's hard to find home run hitters greater (or, if you prefer, more juiced) than Barry, base stealers greater than Rickey, strike-out pitchers greater than Nolan, etc.  But closers greater than Bobby Thigpen?  I think we can find some if we look hard enough.

383 K: Jack Cust.

Boston wins too many blow-outs for Papelbon to save more than 40ish, I suspect.

Our old pal Brandon Lyon isn't that crazy of a candidate.  Bob Melvin is obsessive about keeping his bullpen orderly, the Diamondbacks figure to win a lot of close games, and Lyon looked damn good last year.  Sure he's an extreme longshot, but I mean, that's saves.  When the record is arbitrary, the only way to break it is to get arbitrarily lucky.

Livan Hernandez will be converted to a reliever and appear in 141 games, pitching to 9 batters every time. He'll have an ERA under 3.00 and become the first middle reliever to win the Cy Young award. (or so I presume he'd be the first)

232.3 IP, 187 K, 99 BB, 0 SV, 14 W, 5 L, 2.54 ERA

Geoff, my math skills are rusty -- and they sucked in the first place -- but if he faces 1269 batters (9 x 141) and pitches 232.3 innings (699 outs) and issues 99 walks, that means 471 batters reached via, hit, error or HBP, doesn't it?

If Livan really did essentially strand two runners for every inning he pitched (less than that given he did have some runs score), that's a heck of a Cy Young season!

Geoff - Mike Marshall actually won the Cy Young in 1974 (the year he pitched 106 games) and came in 2nd place the previous year while only throwing in *92* games.

In those 106 games, he threw 208.2 Innings, was 15-12, and had 21 saves to boot.  So technically he was the closer, as there was only 23 saves registered by the entire staff!

The games pitched was one I thought of as a possibility.

Still, 106 is very hard to reach. #2 is 94, reached twice and only 8 times has 90 been reached with 3 of those being Mike Marshall and 3 being Kent Tekulve. Wayne Granger in '69 and Salomon Torres '06 are the other two.

Torres had one of the two 94 seasons as well as 84 and 78 seasons. But he is now entering his age 36 season so I wouldn't bet on him making the century mark.

what about the record of most balks?

who is tracking balk stats?
what about most times reaching first on a strikeout?

its high time we start giving proper value to people that do the small things...the very very very small things.

in answer to my own question: http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/50200

seems unlikely the balk record will be broken either.

Not quite. I calculate for  232.3 IP = 697 outs, leaving 473 batters to be accounted for after taking out the 99 walks.

There will be 96 runs allowed by Livan, leaving us with 377 mystery runners. Now, he doesn't always finish innings, particularly when he's only allowed to face nine batters and never faces fewer than nine batters (the manager will always bring him in before an out is been recorded in the sixth or seventh inning, depending on whether they are the home team or not). And so on 28 occasions, he leaves the game with the bases loaded (usually for Pat Neshek to mop up, the unsung hero who never allows one of Livan's runners to score).

So now we have 293 mystery runners. On 22 occasions Livan finishes an inning with the bases loaded, but only 41 of those runners will be his. The rest are, of course, inherited. 252 runners left.

On 37 occasions, Livan finishes an inning with two men on base, with 23 runners being inherited. 201 left. On 26 occasions he just leaves the game with two men on, all his. Now 149 mysterious baserunners. And innumerable ulcers belonging to Twins fans and management. Nobody said his success will be pretty.

You can see where this is going, but I won't let the amount of detail my psychic powers have given me to be left unsaid.

Ninety-three times the 2008 Cy Young winner will finish an inning with one man left on base. Thirty-one inherited.

87 times he leaves the game with a man on. All his.

One mistake in my earlier numbers made was his ERA. It will be 2.56 at the end of the year.

Bonus prizes to the first person to calculate how many earned runs Livan ...earns, how many games he leaves with nobody on base, and how many innings he finishes with nobody on base.

Got to get all three correct to win.


If you must know, he hits 13 batters, suffers 50 errors, hits 271 bats with good contact and commits 22 excruciating intentional bases on balls. 18 times, Mauer drops the third strike. For the bonus bonus 'prize', how many runners mysteriously reached base, how did they get on, and what whip would you give this horse?

"383 K: Jack Cust."

I laughed... way harder than I should have.

Aaron Hill stealing the stealing home base record (8) from Ty Cobb.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/recbooks/rb_stbah.shtml

Mark your calendars for Pettitte starts