I said under purely because I think the Jays are likely to be better than the Orioles and finish close to where they did last year. Someone is going to lose those divisional games, afterall, and it's not really likely to be one of the top 3 this year. Although injuries can change things quickly, of course.

I said "over" because the Orioles have a lot of talent.  The lineup is solid and young, and there is quite a bit of depth.  If the young pitching tanks, they'll still probably win 75 games, and if it develops better than expected, they could win 90 and sneak into the wild card. 

I was surprised when the O's did not make a serious effort to compete during the 2009-10 off-season.  They did so this off-season.  They probably won't compete this year (young pitchers will break your hearts), but at least they're trying.

I don't think their pitching will disappoint... because I expect it to be bad. Brian Matusz seems to have arrived in one piece, and Chris Tillman has done it in the minors. If they're lucky, those two will stay healthy and pitch well, but their track record raising pitchers is all kinds of not good. I guess adding Hardy and Lee, and having strong outfield D, will help.

The other guys are uninspiring: Guthrie doesn't miss bats, Duchscherer is a reclamation project, Arrieta hasn't dominated anywhere, and Millwood is a replacement level player with gravitas. Maybe they rush Zach Britton.

If Wieters explodes, their lineup will be pretty scary. Not counting him, they have six pretty good hitters (including Roberts who may be finished and Reynolds who I suspect will be a disaster), some of whom are AL East newcomers. I think they'll be good, but not nearly good enough. Unless someone breaks out.

Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta and Guthrie could combine for an ERA of 5, or an ERA of 4 (with the help of the Oriole defence).  Zach Britton is a nice prospect behind them.  I remember the line that the Rays had never developed a pitcher for a decade, and that changed pretty quickly. 

I guess I remember the 85 Royals.  Saberhagen, Gubicza and Jackson took a step forward and they were there.  Charlie Leibrandt was pretty much a dead ringer for Guthrie.  Obviously, Nick Markakis isn't about to post a Brettist line and the AL East of 2011 is a more demanding environment than the AL West of 1985, but the O's look to me to actually have a better overall club. 

Kauffman was a neutral park, but it was (and relatively still is) huge. Once you factor in the AL East schedule, Camden Yards might be the most difficult place in baseball to bring up pitchers.

Mike's been saying "the Orioles have a lot of talent" for years. I have scoffed, pencilled them down for 65 wins, and I have always been right.

But not this year. I'm with Mike, and I might even take the over at 83.5, challenging for third place...

Ooh, Mags, playing the scoffing, I'm-always-right card! How Nouveau Bobby Cox of you!

i haven't looked at it closely yet but i like the orioles to do well this year ...

I might take the over on 76.5 wins, but then again I might not.  I'd be pretty surprised if they finished .500.  I think most of their improvement is going to have to come from the players they already had (Roberts returning, Markakis and Jones bounce back from somewhat down years, Wieters busting out, Matusz and Arrieta developing, etc) rather than their additions, which haven't impressed me that much.