Drafts by Jays

Friday, July 11 2025 @ 09:34 PM EDT

Contributed by: John Northey

Given the draft is here on Sunday lets look back a bit at how the Jays have done.

Zero question on the best pick ever - Roy Halladay, 17th overall in 1995, Gord Ash's first and best move. Another HOF'er was picked 9 picks before him in Todd Helton (cool trivia bit). Top 7 picks could've had either, but instead went for (solid) Darin Erstad, José Cruz Jr, Kerry Wood, and 4 picks their teams regretted (1 never made it, others were sub 4 WAR lifetime). 6 of the 7 picks after Halladay never made it, with the other one being sub 1 WAR. In the 13th round Ted Lilly was picked by the Jays but not signed (sigh). 4 others drafted by the Jays got their cup of coffee with 2 of them having full careers (over 500 games each) in Ryan Freel and Craig Wilson.

So who other than Halladay was a 'wow' pick? Best for each draft? Round in brackets.

The 70's and 80's saw a lot of big risks that worked out - 50+ WAR from Stieb, Olerud, Kent, Wells, and almost 50 from Key.  Also a few total flop years (1980 the total disaster with no one making the majors), while the 90's saw a ton of 10+ WAR guys drafted, developed, then wasted.  The 00's were a disaster, the 10's had a few good years, the 20's nothing of note yet.  Looking back you can see why the Jays were over 500 from 83-93 with so many high end players drafted/developed, and why the 90's were such a disappointment post 93 (so much talent, so few results), then the total waste of the JPR era, AA started strong in drafting which helped him in '15 with trades. Atkins had some poor drafts post the strong 16 one but only one good 1st round pick so far (the injured Manoah) but more recent ones might develop still.

Bottom line is it has been a long time since a great pick happened (Bo in '16), 2013 the last with 2 10+ WAR guys (Boyd & Jansen, Graveman at 9.5), Stroman in '12 the last 20+ WAR guy (Bo should be there before years end), 1997 the last 'WOW' draft with 3 guys getting 20+ WAR (Hudson, Wells, Young).  Been a LOOOONG time since a great draft, which makes the Jays in 1st all the more amazing.

Last good 1st rounder was Manoah, last great one was Stroman, last 30+'er was Halladay. That is a problem - round 1 you need to be hunting for guys who are going to be regular All-Stars.  Round 2 is Bo last all-star quality, then you gotta go back to 1987 and Derek Bell for another. The only other 10+'er is David Wells 1982.  Round 3 is 2009 and Jake Marisnick, then 2004 with Adam Lind, 2003 Shaun Marcum, (guess round 3 was JPR's strength), John Olerud 1989 was the last WooHoo, David Weathers 1988 was solid, and Jimmy Key 1982 was a 'woohoo' too. Round 4 never had a 10+ WAR guy drafted by the Jays, not even a DNS guy.  Round 5's last great one was Michael Young (all for the Rangers), then Mike Timlin 1987 (got the save for the final in 1992's WS), Pat Hentgen 1986 (first Jay Cy winner), and 1978's Dave Stieb.  

That should give everyone a good idea of what to expect from a draft.  Low odds of getting a superstar, but it can happen.  Decent odds of finding a 20 WAR guy, high odds of getting a 10+'er or two.  I always hope the team swings for the fences and goes for the best talent out there, the higher the ceiling the better even if it comes with high risk.  After all, even in round 1 the Jays have only had 2/3rd reach the majors with 20 of those 52 having negative lifetime bWAR.

So have fun watching it, but remember the odds are low that you are seeing the Jays draft the next Roy Halladay or Jesse Barfield, but we might find a new Bo Bichette or Vernon Wells which ain't bad either.

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