Basically every mock draft has the Jays in heavily on high school shortstops, particularly Eli Willits, who isn't expected to last that long, and college pitchers.

Interestingly, the most recent mock drafts from the Athletic, ESPN and MLB.com (all released today or yesterday) have the Jays taking Jamie Arnold, who was in the running to be 1-1 before this year.

KLaw the contrarian just released his final mocK:

It’s shortstops or college pitching here. I believe they’d take Liam Doyle or Kyson Witherspoon but not Jamie Arnold. I’ve had them with Billy Carlson in previous mocks and still think they’d do that, and I believe the Jays are Eli Willits’ absolute floor.

Whoops forgot to post who KLaw had for the Jays: JoJo Parker.

My mistake, I had read Bleacher Report's.

But, ultimately, it seems there are a few names in play after about five or so guys who look to be gone by #8 (Anderson, Holliday, Hernandez and very probably Doyle, Willits and Arquette).

Do the scouts who recommended the Blue Jays top three picks in 2024 (Yesavage, Stephen, King) still work for the team? I imagine their opinions about potential draftees will carry some extra weight this year.

As for JoJo, I remember the Jays drafted a Mississippi high schooler back in 2012. At the time, I remember reading the track record for Mississippi HS hitters drafted high was not good whatsoever. That was DJ Davis. The Jays then doubled down and drafted another - Anthony Alford.

My issues with Arnold (and maybe the Jays') is that all his Ks come on a plus-plus slider but he doesn't get many Ks on his fastball and has no third pitch.

A heavy slider approach like that isn't going to work in pro ball and I worry about the wear-and-tear of throwing so many sliders. Hes also shorter (6 foot) and physically maxed out - there's no more projection there like there is for Anderson and Witherspoon. Jays prefer taller, leaner pitchers, for the most part.

Like Arnold, Doyle is physically maxed out. He also throws each pitch 120% and looks like a reliever - further supported by his 75-80% fastball usage. I also question his maturity due to various videos I've seen.

My Top 5 for the Jays pick in order are:
1. Ethan Holliday, 3B (HS)
2. Kade Anderson, LHP (College)
3. Kyson Witherspoon, RHP (College)
4. Ike Irish, OF/C (College)
5. Jamie Arnold, LHP (College)
6. Billy Carlson, SS (HS)
7. Marek Houston, SS (College) (would likely sign under slot)
8. Eli Willits, SS (HS)
9. Liam Doyle, LHP (College)

I like some of those shortstops better than Arnold but I'm hesitant to rank them too high for the Jays given their development struggles with hitters.

I've been hoping Willits drops to them since the beginning of the year, but I'd be happy with any of the 3 HS SS's in that range (Willits, Carlson, JoJo, in that order). Alternately, one of the college starters looks good (Witherspoon, Doyle, then Arnold). There are other interesting options like Arquette and Irish, so there should be lots to choose from at 8.

I’m Team JoJo Parker

(Assuming Anderson, Holliday, Hernandez, and Willits are off the board).

MLB's Final Mock

8. Blue Jays
Mayo: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4)
This still feels like a college pitching landing spot and perhaps the Blue Jays didn’t expect Arnold to still be around. If he’s not, Witherspoon would be the most likely play, though the Jays could switch gears and look at the high school shortstop group, led by Parker.

Callis: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4)
While the Blue Jays love Parker and would be tempted by the other prep shortstops who have come off the board in this scenario, their desire for pitching could make it difficult to pass on Arnold and perhaps Witherspoon.

BA's final mock

1. Nationals — Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
2. Angels — Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
3. Mariners — Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS
4. Rockies — Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) HS
5. Cardinals — Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS
6. Pirates — Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
7. Marlins — Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn

8. Blue Jays — JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS
Why He’s The Pick: Parker continues to feel like one of the favorites here, though in this scenario they would have their choice of him or Billy Carlson—another prepster they are linked to. This pick could come down to Parker vs. Jamie Arnold vs. Kyson Witherspoon. I’ll lean towards Parker.

What They Are Getting: Parker has one of the more well-rounded offensive packages in the class with a long track record of hitting to go with solid power. He might slide off shortstop, but should have a chance for third base.

Other Names We’re Hearing: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS; Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS; Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State; Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State; Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma; Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville (Ala.) HS; Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS, San Antonio

Dart Throw Names For Later Rounds: Cam Leiter, RHP, Florida State; Tim Piasentin, 3B, Foothills Composite HS, Okotoks, Alb.; Micah Bucknam, RHP, Dallas Baptist; Bobby Mahoney, RHP, Arrowhead Christian Academy, Redlands, Calif.

I'm hoping they pick a hitter instead of a pitcher - pitchers are massive highs and lows, hitters more stable generally. Jays top 10 picks have 2 who cracked 10 WAR (both over 25) in Lloyd Moseby and Vernon Wells, 2 pitchers and a hitter who cracked 5 in Billy Koch (closer), Ricky Romero (starter), and Felipe Lopez (SS), Hoffman is next, the rest 0.5 or less in Bickford (P), Williams (P), Martin (IF/OF), Stark (C), and 3 who never made it (all hitters). Hmm... maybe I'm wrong and pitchers aren't as bad a risk as hitters. Of course the 3 flops were from the early part of Gillick's era (79-82) when he had a lot of trouble drafting and the draft didn't have 10% of the emphasis it has today.

Jays 1st rounders

• LHP: 9 taken, biggest 'success' was James Paxton (13.8 WAR) but he DNS, then Ricky Romero at 9.9. Just Barriera and Matt Smoral didn't reach, 2 negative WARs.
• RHP: 29 taken, #1 was Roy Halladay (duh), with Carpenter #2 (34.2 WAR), Stroman #3 (21.9), plus Musgrove (14.9) and Karsay (11.1). 6 failed to reach the majors, 9 had negative WAR (note: Yesavage is among the not reaching crew)
• C: 4 taken, 2 never reached, 1 had negative WAR, the other was JP Arencibia (1.9 WAR)
• 1B: 3 taken 1 didn't reach, David Cooper was a flop, Lloyd Moseby was drafted at 1B (weird)
• 2B: never drafted a 2B in round 1
• 3B: 3 drafted, 2 didn't reach, the other is Alex Rios (rapidly moved to the OF)
• SS: 16 drafted, 7 didn't reach, 6 with negative WAR, 1 at 0.0 (Russ Adams), Aaron Hill the big success (24.4), Felipe Lopez a solid guy (7.5 with an ASG). Nimmala one of the didn't reach of course.
• OF: 12 drafted, 5 didn't reach, 3 big successes in Shawn Green, Shannon Stewart, and Vernon Wells. 2 negative WAR guys, 2 sub 5's in Travis Snider and Gabe Gross.

Huh. Checking the stats it seems pitchers aren't that bad a bet vs hitters. Go figure. The 'common wisdom' is a flop. 51.7% of RHP failed (didn't reach or negative value), LHP 44.4% failed, SS 81% failed, OF/C/1B/2B: 63.6% failure rate. This says "don't draft SS's" very loudly. In the end, I'd say pick the best player available, the one who project to have the highest ceiling. You don't win titles by having a lot of 'meh', you need stars (20+ WAR) and round 1 is your best shot at finding one - 9 out of 77 1st round picks for the Jays fit that definition, 13 if you expand to 10+ WAR, 14 if you add in Ricky Romero (9.9). So 11.7% to 18.2% shot at a star in round 1. 32% shot at a flop, so basically a 1 in 3 shot at failure and a 1 in 10 to 1 in 5 shot at a star and a 1 in 77 shot at a HOF'er. Having a top 10 pick ups those odds (despite how the Jays have done, mostly in the early Gillick days when drafting was a 'who knows' situation - 6 top 10's in the 1977-1983 time frame vs 7 since). The last Jay top 10 to fail to make the majors was the infamous Augie Schmidt (taken over Dwight Gooden). Austin Martin was the lats top 10 pick (seen as a #1 possible but fell to the Jays, for good reason it seems, but traded before the prospect shine vanished to get Berrios).

I liked Marc's list of choices. If 15 on the list then one or more will separate themselves as being the best in 3-5 years. This should be enough time for the good ones to do this in the Majors. None of us know who those will be. I think E Holliday gets my choice as one of them. But no guarantee.

Therefore I will not get excited this year about the 1st round.

John, the only thing that matters is what this current scouting and development department has shown. Who cares who Pat Gillick drafted 35 years ago.

news to me
possible under slot pick RHP Tyler Bremner born in San Diego hopes to play for Canada next WBC, mom and dad both canadian

If we had more picks I'd be more open to cutting a significantly under-slot deal with someone like Irish or Bremner. That gap in the 2nd round, though, takes a big opportunity to leverage that strategy off the table.

I don't think missing the 2nd around pick leverages the idea of going under-slot off the table. Landen Maroudis and Johnny King were 4th and 3rd round picks respectively, and both were over-slot signings in the $1.25 - $2.0M range. The Jays' 3rd round pick has a slot value just under $1M; if you can push that to $1.5-2.0M then you can sign a legitimate HS talent there.

However, I don't see Ike Irish at #8 being "significantly" under-slot. Maybe if he were to go in the first 3-5 picks it would create a significant under-slot, but he seemingly has too much interest in that ~Top 10-12 range for it to massive savings at #8 overall. Don't get me wrong it would be some savings likely, but most of the Top 10 picks are expected to save some degree of money.

I don't think Jays will save much money going under slot unless its someone not expected in top-20 and so probably not worth it. Also, of note is that this year rounds 1-3 are same day instead of spread out which means that teams won't be able to negotiate with those third round high schoolers easily.

Jays should be able to get a great prospect in round 1 and another promising one in round 3.

The difference between slot at #8 ($6.8M) and #20 ($4.2M) is very big. I think that there is room to save money if they choose to go that way, especially in an uncertain draft like this one where players likely don't have much certainty in where they will actually end up. A guy who thinks he may go #10 overall ultimately being drafted at #14 overall is a difference of $925K in slot-value this year.

For example, just spit-balling: if you take Steele Hall at #8 and offer him $5.5-$6.0M, is he really going to decline that? He seems to have some late helium for teams at picks ~10-13, but his most regular landing spot is still the Rays at #14 who have a slot value of $5.3M. If the Jays got him for $6M, that is just above full slot at pick #11 and would save them a little over $800K, which would push their 3rd round pick to ~$1.8M.

Jays should already know the price on players they like for today. All money saved doesn't have to come from first pick.

Jays will punt as many picks they need to.

2021 (1) Conor Larkin
2022 (5) extra comp picks - Roden, Jennings, Brock, Rock, Churchill
2023 (1) Mollerus
2024 (2) comp pick - Micheletti, Cunningham

I'm a no on Bremner, even at a discount. I'm never a fan of college hurlers that don't have a breaking ball. Between being only FB/CH, I don't love his delivery; it seems to put too much stress on his shoulder - it's very upright.

If they're going to choose a two-pitch hurler from the college ranks it should be Arnold and his plus-plus slider. It's easier to learn a change or split than a slider or curve.

OK, my post was about Bremner's parents being canadian, not a Jay's pick. It just happens his name is mentioned as a possible under slot pick in the mocks not as a Jay's pick