Keegan Matheson@KeeganMatheson

New #BlueJays prospect rankings from the Kevin Gausman trade, on @MLBPipeline:
#17 — INF Ty Southisene cubs #13
#20 — OF Brett Bateman cubs #21

Well, there is hope, Valenzuela was only mentioned 4 times in top 50 lists out of the 11 I tracked, none had him in the top 20. Bateman I fully expect to be called up if/when an OF is traded, or even if none are he might be. At 24 you might as well see if he can handle the majors. His 413 OBP in AAA is promising, but a 392 BABIP is not sustainable with so little power, heck even with tons of power it isn't. His xwOBA in AAA is 351 which is promising. With luck he could be a leadoff hitter which we really need here.

Hoping we get some news on other deals at a reasonable time. The deadline is 6 PM Eastern Monday August 3rd.

Btw, I'm 100% in agreement with Nigel that it is a shame to lose Gausman as he was a class act. The numbers and situation dictated he had to be traded, but it is sad as he really seemed to love it here and I'm glad he got a good sendoff Saturday.

18 doubles and 20 stolen bases.
60 walks vs 65 strike outs.

Need to see Bateman's defense.

Just terrible all around. No need to trade the player, never mind that he's a club legend and class act. And for a couple of guys with bench ceilings IF they show plus defense (though there's scant evidence that they're even good defensively at the moment)....it's just awful every which way.

Ken Rosenthal@Ken_Rosenthal

White Sox acquiring RH reliever Huascar Brazobán from Mets for Class AA RHP Gabe Davis and Class AAA RHP Zach Franklin, sources tell @TheAthletic
.

I am incredibly sad to see Gausman go so I know I won't be able to say anything new there that hasn't been covered. He's been awesome for us, even with a couple of rough months recently.

I do actually like Southisene in a vacuum. He does have enough speed that if he can keep up his AVG/OBP, he can be a prototypical old-school leadoff hitter. He's doing well for 20 at A+. I'm not sure bench ceiling is fair at this point; bench floor is more likely with Ty. It's whether or not he can be good enough to be a starter, but it's still not out of the question.

Bateman has a pretty wide range of outcomes, so I really have no idea. Seems like more fodder to battle for the soon to be open CF position, but unclear on how his defense is. Nothing overly exciting there.

If I squint and see a 2025 Myles Straw platooning with the left handed version of him in Batemen I can see the overall logic in the short term. However I really hope we get some sort of right handed hitting outfield today.

Myles Straw was a 3 WAR CF up to age 27. Maybe Bateman can be that.

I'm curious how the salary is being allocated for Taillon and Gausman.

Sounds like the Cubs are picking up the remainder of Gausman's salary but are the Jays paying minimum for Taillon or the balance of his contract?

Not excited about the players coming back, it was admittedly less than I expected to get back for Gausman (and I wasn't expecting much to begin with), but probably multi-tiered reasoning here. Gausman was already offered the qualifying offer years ago, so that wasn't an option for the Jays this winter. They are also massively above the CBT so there's a bunch of penalties that do not make sense for the Jays to be paying for a team this bad. Then there's the fact that the team doesn't have a CF for 2027 other than an $8M option for Myles Straw, which hopefully isn't something the team has any interest in. Lastly the team isn't good, so 2 more months of Gausman for the remainder of 2026 didn't make sense for either side. So essentially this was killing all of those birds with one stone. This team clearly values contact ability. Whether they can add a bit more bat speed, pop, or whatever else they have in mind remains to be seen.

There's another downside. You're uprooting the guys family to get those minor leaguers into your system. I can some raised eyebrows based on that return.

Time to shut down Clad and send him to lab to figure out what ails him and if we find out he's been playing through some injury then boy oh boy...

Dalimon, your posts give off the impression you're relatively new to baseball fandom, so appreciate you taking an interest if so.
I'd argue every professional athlete is highly aware of the business side of baseball and the potential to be traded at any time. Gausman has reiterated many times about how good the Jays organization is at treating players and their families and they constantly have a reputation as being #1 in baseball for that, along with their facilities. In addition, he had an 8 team no trade clause so it's possible the Jays worked with him to trade him to a destination of his choice, potentially lowering the return.

There's simply no way the Jays were going to let a FA starting pitcher not return some minor league prospects because they were concerned about uprooting his family for 2 months.

The family has already returned to Louisiana.
That happened well ahead of the trade.

Soriano!

for nimmala micheletti Angel Rivero

Unexpected and impressed. I'm sure this is going to cost us plenty, but it answers one of the huge question marks for 2027 (and 2028) about starting pitchers.

Mitch Bannon@MitchBannon

The #BlueJays have acquired Jose Soriano from the Angels, source confirms
@JeffPassan/@bnicholsonsmith's report.

The return is Arjun Nimmala, Eddie Micheletti and Angel Rivero.

Y’all were itching for a sell off so Rogers could save money. Too funny.

That's certainly unexpected.

I was not impressed when I heard this, and I'll need to digest, but Soriano has mutliple years of control. I thought he may be a FA after next year, but it's after 2028.

Chris,

I have been watching baseball since 92/93 and I do a lot of reading. I am not hugely inclined to follow the analytics. I am not a nerd. I understand the stats but you can call me more old school. I completely recognize this is how front offices work and I readily admit that raw numbers trump intangibles etc so don't interpret that as me pooping on Bill James or Fangraphs or your affinity for wrc+. It's just not my main interest as a baseball ball.

Not every baseball fan is a slave to the numbers though, accurate as they may be. I'm a season ticket holder and probably come off as ill read and random because 90% of my posts are from an iphone usually while walking the dog, parenting two young kids or driving (not proud of the last one).

That’s totally fair Dalimon, appreciate your perspectives and nice to see we can come at things from two angles!

I don’t love the Soriano trade given the prospects required but appreciate a team willing to go for it.

Its basically two plus years of Soriano for Nimmala. Micheletti could be a fourth OF and Rivero is small and probably a future reliever.

You come across like most STHs, dalimon5. This place is not reflective of the fanbase.

Glad to have Soriano onboard. They will still need to add a good arm, but Cease Soriano Yesavage is a start.

Y’all were itching for a sell off so Rogers could save money. Too funny.

Soriano is cost controlled for 2.5 seasons and makes less than $3M this year. This is exactly what everyone was saying they were looking to do: dump expensive expiring contracts from a bad team, and try to pick up controllable longer-term impact talent...

I sensed the Blue Jays would be targeting Detmers or Soriano. As I suggested yesterday, maybe the Blue Jays feel Walker can help further elevate Soriano’s game, as he’s done with other power SPs like Ray and Cease.

I hate giving up Nimmala for him, but I’m pleased the Blue Jays held on to Parker (who I ranked slightly higher than Nimmala before the season).

Ooh, Soriano for Nimmala and others. That's interesting.

Question: if the Blue Jays were going to add Soriano, why trade Gausman? If the rotation had been Cease, Yesavage, Soriano, Gausman this year, wouldn’t that have put the team in good position to land the WC3 spot?

Probably great news for Seattle, but the Angels were likely to tank, anyway.

Does trading Nimmala mean the Blue Jays believe Parker can stick at SS?

Love getting Soriano, but I hate losing Nimmala, doubly so because it makes me think Giménez is further entrenched as the starter

The Angels don't sell in April.

Nimmala has had a few injury issues, could be one reason why the Blue Jays were willing to part with him.

That comment was obviously made before I learned of the Soriano trade, but it still applies. If they are Gausman’s salary, the return would’ve been higher.

*ate

Don't like Nimmala being traded partly because of his background.

Don't like him being traded because we need offense and its hard to get in free agency compared to starting pitchers.

Don't LOVE Soriano.

Overall I have to say I am happy with the trade because it's a legit controllable player that helps now and in the future...BUT...


Can they trade for the same type of player except a BAT already???

So, they still trade one of Bieber or Scherzer?

And Varsho?

I don't think trading Nimmala necessarily means they think Parker can stick at SS. There are a multitude of reasons the Jays may have traded Nimmala, including the fact the Angels wanted a prospect very likely to stick at SS. I assume the Jays still think it's a possibility, but not a guarantee.

I fall in love with Jays prospects sometimes, but the last time Atkins did this kind of trade, the Jays dealt SWR and Martin for Berrios. That trade turned out great, Berrios' current contract aside.

This trade might not turn out as well. Nimmala is probably a better prospect at this time than SWR and Martin were at the time of the trade, but Martin was a year out from being the sixth overall pick and SWR was a backend Top 100ish prospect. However, getting two and a half years of controllable above-average pitching is valuable.

And, as for why not keep Gausman, I don't think they are contending this year. This trade is about next year and 2028. I suspect we'll see Varsho and at least one of Beiber and Hoffman dealt, if not both.

Nice trade for Soriano.

Would've been way better if we didn't ditch gausman for peanuts.

Funny that we'll come away from this deadline with a worse system, not a better one, tho.

It's 2 months of Gausman. That was never going to improve the system.

"Y’all were itching for a sell off so Rogers could save money. Too funny."

92-93, you either have a habit of twisting peoples words to your own benefit or have severe reading comprehension issues. Or both.

I was the poster who said the Jays would sell to cut their massive tax bill. The other sell-off guys were after prospects.

If you can comprehend my posts, I almost never, ever get into wishcasting, there are plenty around here that love to do that and I leave it up to them.

What I said was clearly a prediction. Why would I or anyone else here take joy in seeing the team dismantled for Rogers to save money?

There are 2 things that make a player valuable, the years of control and the salary he's making.
It's 2 months of Gausman at free agency salary rate (23M) and 2 years of Soriano with arbitration (something like 6M, 11M, maybe).

Hoffman isn't that valuable because he makes decent money next year--12.67M.

Next years rotation, preliminary:

Cease
Soriano
Yesavage
Ponce
Miles

Don't unseratand the Gausman trade if you're going to trade for Soriano now. I like soriano's upside but hate trading Nimmala. Just don't really like what Jays see trying to do and generally think the threading the needle is a bad plan. If you're good enough to compete compete, if you're not, don't try.

As someone who went into the deadline thinking this year is lost but very optimistic about next, I understand the front office’s approach. I’ve also been a bit skeptical of whether Nimmala’s offense is going to hold up so, while the price is high, I can digest the price. They were in desperate need of starting pitching for 2027.

ESPN take (for what it’s worth — I think their takes are sometimes more “hot take” than incisive):

Blue Jays grade: C+

The Blue Jays traded Kevin Gausman to the Cubs on Sunday night and now replace him with Soriano, but while they're straddling both sides of deadline dealing, this trade is more about 2027 and 2028 than 2026. Soriano comes with those two additional seasons of team control, which is why the Jays were willing to include Nimmala, their No. 2 prospect. Nimmala has fallen behind JoJo Parker on the Blue Jays' shortstop depth chart, but the 2023 first-round pick is still a top-50 or so overall prospect in the sport, a steep price to pay for an inconsistent pitcher like Soriano.

In March and April, Soriano was the best starter in the majors when he went 5-0 with a 0.24 ERA through his first six starts. Since then: The same old Soriano, walking too many batters and more hittable than you might expect for a pitcher with his stuff. He has a 4.64 ERA over his past 16 starts.

Still, you can see why the Blue Jays are looking to the future. Gausman was going to be a free agent, and so will Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin, not that they'll miss the latter three (they've combined for a 6.08 ERA). The Jays can now plan on Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage and Soriano for the 2027 rotation, with Cody Ponce and Jose Berrios returning from injury. The Jays have had success in turning the talented-but-erratic Cease into a Cy Young contender this season, so maybe they can do the same with Soriano. And, hey, you never know, the Jays are still one nice winning streak away from getting back into the wild-card picture.

Angels grade: A-

Finally, the Angels might be admitting that they need to commit to a full rebuild. Let's see if Zach Neto is next to go. This type of deal is the right approach for an organization that hasn't had a winning season since 2015. Soriano's trade value was only going to go down the longer the Angels kept him.

Nimmala, playing the entire 2026 season at 20 years old, is hitting .265/.365/.453 and has held his own in 33 games in Double-A, with a .279/.355/.451 line. The numbers don't blow you away, but he's one of the youngest players in Double-A and has projectable power with some impressive exit velocity readings in the minors. He has the arm strength and footwork to stick at shortstop. The biggest issue revolves around his hit tool, but he's made strides this year after hitting .224 in A ball in 2025.

Considering that top 50 prospects are rarely traded at the deadline, getting Nimmala for Soriano is a nice coup for the Angels. The other two prospects are throw-ins at this time, a Double-A outfielder and a 19-year-old in rookie ball, but let's call this a win for the Angels -- something they haven't had in a long time. -- Schoenfield

He's had pretty much 3yrs as a fulltime SP, from ages 25-27.

Career as SP: 73gms, 5.5ip/gm, 90era-, 88fip-, 88xfip-, 3.1awar/32gms

His baseline is already very good (not ace, but very good), and i'm sure they think there's some more upside left to tap there too.

I like Nimmala plenty but that's a very fair price imo.

Does anybody have a suggestion of a possibly similar value offensive player with control that Toronto can trade for? I feel like this team is going to be terrible next year without a significant bat or several new offensive additions.

What's the projected line up for '27?

OF Lukes - questionable ability
1B Vlad
OF Barger - questionable reliability
3B Okamoto
DH Santander - questionable reliability
C Kirk
2B Clement
SS Gimenez - questionable ability
OF Straw - should be back up

Is this FO quadrupling down on pitching and defense???

I hate that amateurish selective sample abuse in that ESPN take ('great 1st 6 starts and bad since').

Soriano's last 5 starts: 3.21era, 2.38fip, 3.47xfip, 5.4awar/32

There’s been many arguments made about preferring the team sells and not one involved saving Rogers money so not sure where that narrative comes from. Ducking luxury tax penalties has more to do with the penalties (mainly dropping 10 spots in the draft) than it does saving Rogers money.

As far as this trade, exactly what they should be doing. Selling on expiring contracts and adding pieces for 2027-beyond. Sucks to lose Nimmala, it would have been cool to see an Indian player make it (especially in the Toronto market) but he’s not a sure thing to make it or be good at the big league level so I understand the move.

Soriano + Taillon in the rotation over Gausman and Bieber is probably a wash for 2026 depending on what Bieber looks like the next 2 months (underlying metrics look awful) so the “go for it” crowd should feel a bit happier.

If, as Gerry suggests, the 2027 rotation looks like:

Cease
Soriano
Yesavage
Ponce
Miles

wIth Berrios coming back from injury, and maybe another arm or two added in free agency,

Then maybe Perry will get traded (along with another prospect or two) for a bat.

Empty the farm for De La Cruz.

I found it funny Shoenfield called Soriano an inconsistent pitcher right after I looked at his FIP's the past 3 seasons.

2024 - 3.80
2025 - 3.73
2026 - 3.79

This matches my gut take:


Baseball Trade Values
@BaseballValues
·
Follow
Today the #BlueJays reportedly acquired RHP Jose Soriano ($41.1M surplus trade value) in exchange for SS Arjun Nimmala ($29.6M), RHP Angel Rivero (not in system) and OF Eddie Micheletti (not in system).

The deal is accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by Toronto.

I was completely wrong about the Jays holding on to Nimmala for marketing purposes. I expect the Jays will try and extend Soriano this winter.

"Then maybe Perry will get traded (along with another prospect or two) for a bat."

"trade the farm for De La Cruz"

Yes these are the types of deals I want to see Toronto do. Okay maybe not trade Parker and the whole farm for De La Cruz...but this avenue of getting expensive controllable offensive player is where they need to go to hep Vlad and also...you know...score runs.

That Nimmala is not a plus defender and hasn't yet unlocked significant power makes moving on for a quality pitcher worthwhile - Thumbs up.

Soriano has a somewhat similar profile to Cease, including walking a few more than you like and being a little pitch inefficient. It may be a profile that they think they can fine tune for extracting a little more juice.

In trading Nimmala now, the front office may have learned from what happened with Groshans a few years ago. They waited too long to trade him, then eventually dealt him when his value had declined and got little for him.

I will say this about the current FO - They don't hold onto top prospects forever as some past FO have done - they are quicker to make a evaluation and move a prospect that they may no longer be enamored with while he still has value.

I don’t see it as them falling out of love with prospects. More that they never fall in love with any prospects.

Prospects are assets, with a certain value. There's nothing magical about them. You don't have to dislike a prospect in order to trade them.

Chris Black
@DownToBlack
·
9m
Jose Soriano, meet Alejandro Kirk & Brandon Valenzuela.

Catcher Framing Runs

Los Angeles Angels:
-13 in 2026 (30th in MLB)
-41 in the 2020s (28th in MLB)

Toronto Blue Jays:
+15 in 2026 (1st in MLB)
+58 in the 2020s (4th in MLB)

I don’t see it as them falling out of love with prospects. More that they never fall in love with any prospects.

Prospects are assets, with a certain value. There's nothing magical about them. You don't have to dislike a prospect in order to trade them.

Agree 100% ugly.

Elly De La Cruz ... oh man if Cincinnati is crazy enough to deal him, go for it.  Under team control for 27/28/29.  Give up nearly anything they'd ask for to get him.  Make Gimenez/Clement share 2B.  Damn, that'd be a dream.  Seems the Reds are seeking young ML players for him - players close to the majors or in the majors.  So at minimum I'd expect them to want Valenzuela, Keys, Piñango, Miles. As a starting point.  They'd want others too, as we are talking a generational talent in De La Cruz.  I'd go for it.  Hard to think of anyone I'd hesitate to mix in ... maybe Yesavage I'd say no on.  Maybe.

Did the front office like or dislike Otto Lopez? They traded him to SF for cash considerations in 2024, and he’s on pace for about 7 WAR this year.

Parker and Miles would probably get you De La Cruz.

You could argue that they've been adding all these high obp / low pop prospects to atone for that Otto mishap!

Toronto and SF didn't like the Otto Lopez they had. The much improved Lopez they'd both love to have but clearly a different player.

Will Lopez’s 2026 fWAR exceed the highest single-season fWAR by a Blue Jays position player during the Atkins/Shapiro era (a decade and counting)?

greenfrog, I think it was just a case of Lopez being a very late bloomer, probably with help from Miami PD. Went from being an average fielder to elite in Miami and then at age 27, the hitting blossomed as well.

I think Edwin took a somewhat similar path but his huge breakout didn't happen until he was 29.

What will Lopez's 2026 fwar be and what about other WAR measurements (not just Fangraphs)?

Who are the Blue Jays players from Shapiro, AA, Pat Gillick years that exceeded that projected WAR?

Why are you asking this question and focusing it on Shapiro/Atkins front office?

I was a huge fan of Lopez when he was with the Jays and disappointed when they let him go especially since there were some fringy infield suspects on the active roster but I know that you can't hold onto everyone but not surprised the Lopez has become a productive player though I didn't expect a potential 7 war season.

It's more like injuries and the shortened 2020 season robbed Lopez of opportunities. The Jays were happy with Biggio and Espinal initially. Then, the league deadened the balls and imposed humidors everywhere. Espinal was an All-star in 22. Lopez was another right bat with limited defensive value, but he could always hit. He wasn't ranked highly and had no trade value.

Donaldson had 8.7 fWAR in 2015. Not sure if any Blue Jays position player has exceeded that. Olerud posted 8.1 fWAR in 1998, JB had 8.1 fWAR in 2011, Delgado had 7.4 fWAR in 2000.

I mentioned Lopez to temper the alluring notion that trading away prospects is almost always a good thing because so few of them develop. The Blue Jays currently are in desperate need of an MLB impact middle infielder — exactly the player they traded away in Lopez a couple of years ago.

The Athletic’s staff writers are very positive about the Nimmala-Soriano trade from the perspective of both teams.

Otto Lopez was traded away for cash considerations to SF and then later designated for assignment by the Giants. He was not traded away with any notion of it being a good thing. He was dumped.

The other aspect of the Gausman trade is that I think it confirms that Varsho is playing somewhere else next season. I will now be a little surprised if he isn’t moved today.

Latest rumour is Red Sox are outbidding NYY for Rutschman.

One item mentioned By the Athletic is that Soriano was left unprotected in the 2020 Rule 5 draft and taken by the Pirates. Spent the season injured in Pittsburg and then returned to the Angels.

Varsho was good in 2024-2025 (World Series missed opportunities aside), but injuries have taken a toll on his game. I agree that the Blue Jays are moving on from him.

So who is going?

Varsho? Bieber? Springer? Scherzer? Anyone else?

Estimates - Varsho almost 100%, Bieber 90%, Springer 60%, Max sub 50%. Too high, too low?

This is a good trade. I am saddened to not get to see Nimmala in a Jays uniform, but I hope he makes it and has a great career.

Soriano's April was just amazing to watch, and so I do think Cease is a great comp as far as "great stuff, but inconsistent" goes.

It would've been interested seeing some sort of bigger package to try to acquire Neto or Detmers too but I'm sure the cost was deemed too high.

Hoffman - 99.9%
Varsho - 70%
Rogers - 50%
Straw - 40%
Bieber - 30%
Springer - 20%
Scherzer - 10%

Besides Hoffman and Rogers there are too many better options out there. Springer would be in demand like Hoffman and Rogers but he's DH and the teams that can use him the most don't have room at DH.

Varsho closely to 100% and Scherzer close to 0% (did you see the crowd reaction yesterday?). Springer is the interesting one. Trading him would be a white flag trade but there’s a chance you could get something interesting for him so 50%.

One red flag about Soriano. He’s already had TJ surgery and revision TJ surgery (according to The Athletic). He has never posted more than 169 innings in the majors. So his “arm health” clock is ticking. (On the other hand, the surgeries have meant that his innings mileage is lower than, say, Berrios’s at the same age.) Hopefully he can stay fully healthy for the next 2.5 years.

You think the demand for Varsho is going to be that high?

Jo Adell to Guardians?

Taylor Ward to Mariners.

Can definitely see Springer going now. Let's see what those two OFs got their teams back.

I don’t think the demand for Varsho will be that high but I think the ask will be minimal/non existent. The complexity with Hoffman is his salary. I think the likelihood of his moving is tied to whether the Jays will retain salary. Before the Gausman trade I would have assumed that they would retain to goose the trade value. Now I’m not so sure.

I see Hoffman as having about a 60-70% likelihood of getting traded. He’s been worked hard as a Blue Jays reliever and his value is high right now (he was excellent in June/July and his K numbers are high). Could be a good time to move on from him.

On the other hand, the team will need to field a strong bullpen next year and he could potentially be a valuable part of that.

Taylor Ward got three guys back that aren't in the top 30 of the Mariners (though it's a good system).

Adell got the Guardian's 18th rated prospect (and Adell has an extra year of control).

For all the talk of a Seller's market it appears that it's at best a neutral market if not a straight up Buyer's market.

The only destination for Springer would be Boston and it looks like the Red Sox are looking for a catcher instead.

Return for Hoffman would be very light because he's getting paid next year and has been inconsistent.

I don't think I've weighed in on anything yet.

I thought the return on Gausman was light, but dealing him was the right move. I'm sad to see him go, though - dude is a class act. A small detail, but I'm glad the FO was keeping him up to speed on their plans so he could soak it in on that last start.

As for Soriano, the deal is good for next year and the year after (and heck, this year if the team catches fire... I'm not going to hold my breath, though - they've had 4 months). And on paper, the price was right. I just don't like them trading a potential solid offensive piece. They have so few core offensive performers, and most of them aren't performing this year. I don't think they can really give up on good opportunities until they lengthen the lineup more.

Perhaps teams don't want to overpay to get steamrolled by the Dodgers before an impending lockout, who knows.

If there is a lockout next year then you get Soriano for 1 less year but the Angels maintain their full control of Nimmala.

If Vlad was A BIT better or this team had one win streak then we're sitting here today with maybe Skubal, Adell and others coming to Toronto this summer...

latest tweet now is Texas is taking calls on all their players. They're a game and a half out.

I think the Nimmala/Soriano trade is fine in isolation but I think Jays could get pitchers other ways and they need a bunch of hitters and I just don't see a way to get them. Free agency next year has starting pitching. It doesn't have hitters. The Jays don't have any hitters near the majors that profile as everyday players so where are they going to get offense from?

I've been asking this question for many months now and it's dawning on me that this FO will subject us to more of the same one run hell with the gamble the Jays are on the winning end of those 1 run games.

Unless someone gives me a clear calculation showing that Gaus' remaining money was likely to make the difference in a payroll penalty i'm starting to lean towards the jays maybe having accomodated a request by him to move to a more clearcut contender.

Adam Macko traded for Josh Smith (TEX).

There's gotta be something bigger coming before end of day.

I'm watching a livestream and they've correctly labelled Josh Smith "just IKF again" lol

It's Macko for RHP Josh Stephan and INF Josh Smith.

Josh Stephan, AAA pitcher, 24 yo, also coming back.

Another LHH that can only hit RHP, but usually decent at it. Not much of a fielder, probably just as available in the OF as the IF.

Smith has years of control. That's basically the difference.

Why do the Jays need another Julio Urias, Lenyn Sosa, maybe Ernie Clement type? How many infielders do we need?

Re Smith, not a difference maker, but 26, a few years league average offence from a UT IF isnt horrible for a shuttle lhp rp. Oh... but he dowant help the Jays left handed hitter imbalance.

Unless the Jays are moving Clement (no chance) or Gimenez (if the Baseball Gods decide to throw us a bone), then not sure I understand the need for Smith. A RHB to platoon with Gimenez makes more sense.

Weird trade all around.

Josh Smith defensive usage, career:

3B 1416.2inn, +1frv
SS 1026.1inn, -5frv
OF 475.1inn, +0frv
2B 309.2inn, -3frv
1B 225.2inn, +0frv


Safe to say he doesn't really fit this FO's profile for middle infielders.

Liam Hicks to TB Rays from Marlins.

Robbie Ray to Padres.

Smith can play LF. Sort of a platoon partner for David Schneider, maybe.

I really liked Josh Smith a few years ago when he was a Yankees prospect.

But why get a LF? We have lots of LH hitting corner OFers.
Just doesnt make sense unless it's about asset collecting and seeing what pieces you can throw together to move off someone, or get a player you like.

>The only destination for Springer would be Boston and it looks like the Red Sox are looking for a catcher instead.
I mean, if they'll overpay for Springer + Kirk/Valenzuela (found money, essentially), I wouldn't mind. We have surplus of good all-around talent at C, not enough OF/DH run-producing right now.

I just don't get why the Jays got Josh Smith for Adam Macko - Macko has value due to having options and being a LH reliever. Smith has 2 more years of control, won a silver slugger in '24 and had a just about as good '25, but just a 68 OPS+ this year.  Ick. Guessing the Jays think they know what went wrong and can fix it. That is all I got here - a guy who was solid last year and the year before, fell apart this year, but the Jays think they can fix him. Roll of the dice.  Seems unlikely to work, but if it does then we have another hitter who can play pretty much anywhere but catcher.  Like I said above it feels like a shoe is about to drop to open playing time - hopefully not Clement, but Gimenez going away would be OK, and as fun as Urías has been he is unlikely to keep it up and is a free agent post 2026.  Might be used in the OF as heaven knows we don't have enough LH OF /s

If they traded for him as an OF that would be funny. Having 4 100(ish) wRC+ LHH OFs on the roster, where only Lukes offers any defence, would be an extreme niche fetish.

What's the projected line up for '27?

OF Lukes - questionable ability
1B Vlad
OF Barger - questionable reliability
You forgot a "- questionable results" beside Vlad.

The only guy this FO should be interested in fixing is a certain 1B...

"I hate that amateurish selective sample abuse in that ESPN take"

Indeed. And he hasn't given up a single homer in those five starts after giving up 9 in his 10 previous.

Also, I don't like the "hey, look what they did with Cease" take as if it's the first time Pete & Co ever flipped the switch on an inconsistent guy with good stuff. There's a significant pattern, not just this new guy.

Time to shut down Clad and send him to lab to figure out what ails him and if we find out he's been playing through some injury then boy oh boy...

I assume you meant Vlad? And honestly, if he was injured all season, that's the ONLY way I feel like there's a chance he returns to 3+ WAR form next year.

Yeah I definitely meant Vlad. His performance this year is as bad as my typos. I should really use that preview function here.

I mean, I'd rather have Smith and Stephan than Macko so I guess I like the trade? Don't really get it in a vacuum though.

Jays also got a SP in the Tex deal named Josh Stephan. 24 year old AAA guy who seemed to have something going on until he got to AA. Might be a little help to get him out of the PCL but he's not on their Pipeline Top 30. Fangraphs has him at #21

"Stephan has worked through the minors at a steady pace, throwing strikes and doing just enough to miss barrels to keep progressing. The 24-year-old reached Triple-A at the end of last year and is back in Round Rock again after notching a 4.67 ERA with an 18.7% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate across a season spent mostly at Double-A. As you might infer from the previous sentence, he has some of the best command in the system and he needs it, as his fastballs have both fringy velocity and round-down shape. He leans heavily on his slider, a mid-80s breaker with late break down and to the glove side. It flashes plus and plays ahead of its visual “nastiness” due to the righty’s ability to work it around the plate and add/subtract velocity and movement; he also has a cutter that emulates the shape at a couple ticks higher. This is not a player dynasty leaguers need to have on their radar, but Stephan should have real-world value as a guy who can wear a couple of hats: He can spot start, long relieve, and also has a path to a more traditional middle relief role if he gains a few ticks in short stints. The perfect-world outcome is a no. 5, and the big outfield in Arlington presents as good of a place as any to reach it."

So...another Chad Dallas maybe?

Thanks TamRa - wasn't there when I added that deal to the list, but now is updated.  Not much, seems like a meh organization guy to me, someone who might get a cup of coffee at some point but won't ever be seen as making a significant impact in the majors. Would love to be wrong, but for now I see him as rotation filler in Buffalo.

I thought this deadline was going to be a dud. It’s been entertaining so far. Southisene’s brother is a top prospect in the Braves system. Of course Jojo Parker’s brother is playing college ball in MS. It’s interesting to me how there aren’t as many “baseball families” as there are “hockey families”. Baseball seems to typically have father/son/grandson lineage outside of the Molinas, whereas hockey you think of the Richard’s, Espositos, Staals, Suters, Sedins, etc etc where the Hulls are the exception. I wonder why that is? Any ideas?

Sometimes those guys become Matt Boyd. Most of the time this is the first and only time the average fan will read the name. But sometimes…!

I actually think Dallas has a chance (not a huge chance) to be a useful bullpen arm because of his SL. I think Stephan is meant to be an upgrade on the Van Eyk type arm. Organization filler who’s needed in emergencies.

Joel Sherman writing that teams are calling the Jays for Soriano...

I think Soriano could be really good with Jays but I'd be fine if they moved him again for a middle of the order bat-type or a better prospect return than they sent out but I'd be shocked if they moved him.

There’s a non zero chance the Jays leaked that story.

Miami traded Toronto born Liam Hicks to the Rays for 3 players, including the Rays 2nd best 45+ FV and best 40 FV at FG.

Nifty work from the Marlins, since the year before we got Miles in the Rule 5, they picked Hicks. Just between Lopez and Hicks, their front office should definitely get votes in the "Outstanding Dumpster-Diving" award category.

Adley Rutschman joins the Red Sox and they're looking a lot more legitimate. Baltimore "dynasty" is finished.

Cubs acquire Reid Detmers from LAA. Damn.

The Jays recently played Springer in LF, I wonder if that was an audition for the Astros who need a LF. Would be sweet if Springer returns to the Astros and the Jays have made many trades with the Astros.

Angels and Cubs ARE NOT CLOSE.

I assume that reference to Julio Urias was meant to read Luis...

I don't see Smith as directly comparable to any of those three guys. Sosa is trash and I think Smith is a clear upgrade there.

Urias is a free agent at year end and I'd be surprised if he's with the team next year. Also, Urias seems pretty limited to 2B and 3B. He hasn't played SS since 2022. Smith made 46 starts at SS last year, so even if he's primarily a 2B this year, that's as much due to Seager and Nicky Lopez as anything. Smith offers more defensive versatility.

Ernie is a starter and Smith is a bench/utility player, so Smith might be the primary infield backup next year or, alternatively, in competition with Kasevich for that role.

I could see Smith getting non-tendered at year end, but this gives the Jays a two-month run to try him out and see if they could get him hitting like he did in 2025.

It's an odd trade, but I can see why the Jays see value in Smith.

Red Sox get Rutschman? They could be pretty good both this year and next (he’s controllable through 2027). Seems like they had to give up a good young pitcher to acquire him, though.

I just don't get why the Jays got Josh Smith for Adam Macko - Macko has value due to having options and being a LH reliever.

The MLBTR piece has Macko on his final option year. Fringe relievers lose almost all their value if they are no longer optionable.

Seems like Macko might be another victim of adding prospects to the 40-man too early for Rule 5 protection purposes like Leo Jimenez, etc.

Macko only has 22 games in the majors and already his prospect clock is now about to expire before becoming a journeyman because his 1st two option years were burned while undercooked in the minors.

Weaver yo Pirates

I think the Orioles did very well in their trade for Rutschman

Orioles did very well in their trade of Rutschman.

Bos Eyanson #2, Witherspoon #3, Azocar #5, Rivas #21 and Narvaez
to Balt

Braxton Garrett (MIA) to Cubs.

Jojo Romero and Dustin May to Milwaukee...

As much as I like Ernie I hope the Jays would listen on the right offer.

I think Clement was miscast as an everyday player. He’s good but should be used as sort of a utility player plus (more than utility but less than everyday).

In the offseason I suggested Brendan Donovan as someone who could ease the workload on Gimenez and Clement and give them some time off and more favourable L/R matchups. Donovan ended up hitting well (839 OPS) but then got injured, so would have been of limited value, but my intuition was correct. As it turned out, both Clement and Gimenez got overused and exposed in 2026.

all-star Ernie will be expensive next year

Another thing about Josh Smith was that he had meningitis and was hospitalised earlier this year. Could be a major reason for his down year. Might be a good bounce back candidate.

Rogers gave Vlad $500M not because of the talent, but because they didn't want to deal with the fallout from fans if they lost him. Clement is probably untouchable, and I'm only being partially hyperbolic.

Varsho to the Astros for Spencer Arrighetti is close according to Mitch Bannon.

Varsho for Arrighetti going down in HOU.

Varsho to Astros.

Hell yes. Sorry I'm sick of seeing Varsho batting top 5 in the line up. This FO loves control... geeze.

Varsho to Hou for Arrighetti P

I think this is pretty decent for a couple of months of Varsho. Arrighetti looks like a backend starter/long man but he has options so there's value in that. I just wish the Jays would sometimes trade for actual prospects.

Right glute strain in May.
Wrist inflammation during rehab.
Meningitis after that.
Sounds like a 26 Jays.

Obviously I’m not surprised that Varsho is gone nor the incredibly modest return (based on what I said above). I found Varsho a frustrating offensive player because the hole in his swing made him so vulnerable to velocity but he was one hell of a defensive player and seemed a solid citizen. I will cheer for him.

How did they get more for Varsho than Gausman?

We're gonna regret that one.

Arrighetti is a actually a surprisingly strong return for Varsho. Struggles with walks and injuries, but he is controllable and misses bats.

I think Arrighetti would really thrive in the BP. I wonder if this signals the Jays are listening on Rogers.

Also, they 100% should have held onto Gausman into today. No idea why they rushed to move him last night. The returns are getting stronger now, and the Brewers overpaid big time for Dustin May.

Getting back actual prospects requires you to have something of value to sell, which the Jays do not (unless they want to move a leverage reliever). I’d would like them to sprinkle in the odd A ball or FCL flyer.

That's a tremendous return considering it's just two months of a rental Varsho.

This time two years ago, this site was filled with admirers of the Orioles' front office and rebuild, saying they'd likely dominate the division for the next decade. One poster even said "there really is no way to fix the org without a full tear down like the Orioles undertook". The Jays made the World Series the very next season, and the Orioles are already trading away cornerstones of the rebuild with control remaining. Baseball moves quickly.

Braxton Garett got same sort of return as Gausman. Either the Jays really wanted those guys or they made the deal too early.

The Soriano deal is surprising, but likely to be a quite good one, with yes a small chance to be quite poor.

Prospects rarely work out, and turning one who is 20 years old and multiple levels to go into a near-guaranteed 2+ years of good mlb talent under arb cost control is a good deal. Yes, sometimes you lose big if the prospect ends up an All-Star/HOF career, but the odds of that are small. What are the odds that Nimmala makes it and has multiple 3+ WAR seasons during his cost control years? It would be different if Nimmala was a top 25 prospect in mlb, but he's more a bottom half of the top 100 (I.e., ~75) so yeah Jordan Groshans is a reasonable comp. You project that Nimmala is likely to make it to the majors (which makes him better than many prospects), but how likely is he to hit 3 WAR?

Also, you can never have too many SP. Especially SP that have a demonstrated floor of being a good #3 or better with flashes of better than that.

how is Ernie miscast as an everyday player?

2024: 452pa, 94wrc+, 3.0war650
2025: 588pa, 98wrc+, 3.5war650
2025: 442pa, 103wrc+, 2.2war650


Ernie shoulda played more, not less.

Having said you can never have too much pitching, does Spencer Arrighetti seem likely to make our rotation either this year or next outside injuries? Seems like a fringy #5 starter for some teams but not sure his mlb stats so far in career look great. I guess he does have a pretty good K/9.

I guess for 2 months of 2026 Varsho that isn't bad, although I was a lot higher on Varsho after last season, and thought he'd be worth having for the next 3 seasons too. I would have done 4 @ 25/year in the offseason coming into this for him. After this year that would go down but could still see 3 @ 20/year for him after this year.

Andrighetti's never shown he can be an effective starter, neither in mlb or aaa. Doesn't throw hard. has a modest K%.

the only thing i can think of is that they think his stuff might play up in the pen.

ah i see why some see upside in andrighetti - his K/9.

except his K/9 is misleading because he allows so many baserunners so faces so many hitters per 9 innings.

His K% - the actual percentage of hitters he strikes out, is just ok.

Yeah, I think the only possible way Clement is miscast as an everyday player is if you think he should play everyday but as a good defense utility player that plays multiple positions regularly rather than playing primarily one position. But those are the reasonable choices Clement as an everyday player at one position (with occasional other positions) or Clement as an everyday player that regularly plays in multiple positions.

I agree it would be better if Clement were more our 7th best hitter instead of our 3rd or so best hitter (I.e., 2025 versus 2026), but that is more the team around Clement failing to hit as well (plus Clement hitting slightly better this year than last).

Depends on the definition of an effective starter. The ability to take the ball every 5 days and pitch to the tune of a 4.60era has some value.

He had a 2.57era and a 3.81fip through his first 11 starts/63 innings this year.

I am not a fan of pitchers who are wild.  But Soriano and Arrighetti certainly do improve the team for '26-28.  That gives us a full rotation now with Cease-Soriano-Yesavage-Arrighetti-Jameson Taillon for this year.  Repalce Taillon with Ponce for 2027/28.  I'd say the rotation is looking good.  Of course we thought that this year too.  We'll also have Spencer Miles, Bowden Francis, and midseason José Berríos.  Now c'mon, lets deal Scherzer & Bieber for some hitting!

Baseball does move quickly. In the offseason some of us wanted to throw hundreds of millions of dollars at Bo, and he is currently a 660 OPS hitter (2nd percentile Batting Run Value), with a 13th percentile Baserunning Run Value, in 2026.

gabrielsyme was prescient, though (and not for the first time). I believe he predicted Bo’s performance would fall off this year.

Another thing about Arrigetti - he's been death on righties this year. All his issues appear to be against lefties. Interestingly, his cutter has also dropped from 20% usage in 2024 to 6% this year, so he's been basically fastball-curveball against lefties. I bet they have a few tweaks they want to try to unlock a bit in him.

As for Ernie, he's a defensive-minded starter, who's just been slumping defensively. At this stage, he's perfectly fine, though not irreplaceable (except in our hearts, and the marketting campaigns).

I'm guessing Baltimore fans are feeling very depressed today. Won the division in '23 looking great, 0 for playoffs, '24 made playoffs, 0 for playoffs, '25 dead last, '26 sub 500 again and dumping core players like Adley Rutschman.  That was a brief recovery after 6 years of no playoffs.  At least we got to enjoy a WS appearance and from 2020-2026 4 times in the playoffs, so damn close to a title, and hope for '27 and beyond.  O's fans have 2 playoffs and 0 playoff wins from 2017 to now.  The O's last WS appearance was winning it in 1983, before the Jays ever made the playoffs - in fact that was the first year the Jays didn't finish in last in the AL East.  How things have changed.

June, Josh Stephan should be under the additions, not the losses in the post write up.

Bateman and Southisene imo both entirely depend on defensive projections. Fangraphs ranks them poorly as prospects because they don't rate their defensive upside much at all.

Both will struggle to even be league average bats - so their only path to starting in MLB is positive defense at a premium position.

I'm willing to wait and see because prospect defense projections are so often complete junk - but they really need to be able to handle CF and SS well if they're gonna be anything useful.

apparently we threw some cash in to get that varsho deal done.

About a half hour left. I’m hoping they can bring in a starting level bat, and rationalize the surplus of marginal OFs

And as for Soriano, I'm enthusiastic about the acquisition.  I think that he's going to be good here, but whether or not they have sacrificed too much in Nimmala is a good question.  I did like Nimmala better than Parker.  

Based on the Mets' return for Weaver, I'd be disinclined to trade Hoffman.

oops, good catch chris_jays.  Thanks.  Price of doing this between1001 other things (life as a single mom is never easy).

With the O’s selling their catcher, and Henderson with two more arbitration years left I wonder if the Jays could line up with them there. Holliday is also just 22 and has shown some signs of his promise coming to fruition this year.

whether or not they have sacrificed too much in Nimmala is a good question.

I was down in New Hampshire last weekend to see the Fisher Cats, in part because it would be an opportunity to see Nimmala before he made it to the majors. I wasn't expecting his debut to be with the Angels.

I'm waiting for the Scherzer and Bieber deals to happen - someone must want them you'd think.  Just 30 minutes to go, but announcements sometimes come post deadline.

I’m not a fan of the Arrighetti profile but I wonder if he might be more successful in the pen. You might be able to leverage his breaking ball against RHH’s in small doses. I have no issues with the trade though.

The delay about Varsho probably has to do with his wrist.

Hoffman to the Twins.

Jeff Hoffman to the Twins.

The Twins have a really strong system. This should be a good return.

I'd ask for Riley Quick just because i love his name ;)

Mitch Bannon tweeted and immediately deleted the details of the trade. Only name I saw before the refresh was Dasan Hill.

I am happy for Hoffman, he was a change of scenery candidate for me. Its hard to be back to the scene of his biggest failure for every home game.

Mitch Bannon
@MitchBannon
·
47s
Dasan Hill, John Klein and Dameury Pena is the return, I’m told. #BlueJays

I agree Gerry - I think Hoffman has been carrying a cross all season.

Per Fangraphs number 13, 34 and 47 prospects.

I like Hill actually even with the control issues.

Hill is a Sp and just 20.5 years old when fangraphs wrote him up.

Hill was maybe the most projectable player in the entire 2024 draft regardless of position or demographic at 6-foot-5, 165 pounds. His fastball was peaking in the 88-90 mph range during the summer between his junior and senior year of high school, but held 92-97 during his senior spring. The Twins gave him $2 million to eschew a commitment to Dallas Baptist and quite aggressively assigned Hill to full season ball for his pro debut in 2025. Though his monstrous stuff helped him post a 2.77 ERA in the Florida State League, he struggled badly with walks there, and this issue has come home to roost at Cedar Rapids as Hill issues a free pass per inning and has an ERA approaching 7.00.

Hill may very well end up with four plus pitches at maturity — indeed all four of them are generating plus miss again in 2026 — but whether or not they play that way is going to depend on whether he can refine his control, and even then it’s possible some of his repertoire (especially his fastball) will always play down due to the upright nature of his delivery. Hill is sitting in the upper 90s (for just a couple innings at a time), but the downhill plane of his fastball makes it more hittable than you’d think. Conversely, his breaking pitches have awesome depth in part because of his high release. They are often so far away from the strike zone that they don’t elicit chase. The same is true of Hill’s changeup, which has nasty finish at times but too often sails on him.

This is still a very young, very projectable lefty who has room for 30 or more pounds on his wispy frame before he’s reached maturity. It’s not unusual for pitchers this young with this kind of arm speed to struggle to command it. There’s a power reliever outcome waiting here in the event Hill can’t improve his feel for location, though in order to be trusted in big spots, he’ll need to improve his command at least a little bit compared to where it is currently.

Dasan Hill
John Klein
Dameury Pena
250k in international cap space

I'm fine with it. Hill is definitely a big boom/bust candidate but has really good stuff. I still think Hoffman makes us better if we're competing next year (if there is a next year).

Lack of bats coming back, but teams also have to be willing to give them up.

The first line of the Pena write up sounds familiar.

The tiny Pena, who is repeating Low-A, is maybe the best pure contact hitter in the Twins system and has struck out just 6-9% of the time in each of his four pro seasons. He has uncommon twitch in his hands for a player his size and remarkable feel for hitting the ball where it’s pitched. A complete lack of power and physicality dilutes Pena’s offensive production below the threshold of big league likelihood. He is a singles and doubles hitter right now, and doesn’t have the obvious frame-based projection of a taller, more broadly built athlete. That isn’t ideal given the positions Pena can play. He’s gotten reps at second base and in left field, and has improved enough at the former to project there despite below-average hands. He’s tracking like a Michael Stefanic type of player.

"I agree Gerry - I think Hoffman has been carrying a cross all season"

But he's been better this season than last season.

Source: #MNTwins are taking on the remainder of Jeff Hoffman's 2026 salary, but Blue Jays are paying a portion of his 2027 salary.

Baseball America on Hill.

Hill has gained around 20 pounds since he was drafted and started to fill out his 6-foot-5 frame, though he will always be on the lanky side. Hill throws from a three-quarters arm slot with a high release height. His 94-96 mph fastball comes in on a steep plane but plays below its velocity. He now tops out at 98 mph, a considerable increase from where he was as an amateur. Hill’s fastball command is below-average and he’s more comfortable throwing strikes with his secondaries. His best secondary is his 83-85 mph changeup which has substantial separation from his fastball and flashes plus potential. It misses bats at an above-average rate and has the highest zone rate of any of his pitches. His 81-84 mph sweeper flashes similar plus potential. He is comfortable landing it in the zone, and it misses bats at a slightly higher rate than his changeup. He rounds out his arsenal with a high-70s curveball that is primarily a chase pitch but also misses bats at a high rate.

The Future: Hill is just scratching the surface of his potential, and all his pitches have the chance to improve. His midrotation upside is littered with reliever risk. He will return to Cedar Rapids to start 2026, with the eye toward making it to Double-A in his age-20 season.

Does the $250k in cap space mean we’re not moving to an IFA draft in 2027? That would be good for the Blue Jays, I think.

Hoffman had value beyond this year and the return for him may well result in zero major league value. That said, this is a high ceiling, no floor return in terms of prospects.

If this is the complete set of trades how much worse (or better) are the Jays in 2026? How much better (or worse) are the Jays in 2027 (assuming no one that wasn't already signed/controlled was staying)?

Seems like only a bit worse in 2026 and more than that better in 2027.

Thomas Nestico (TJ Stats) on the trade.

The Blue Jays land one of the most volatile LHP prospects in baseball

Dasan Hill was the biggest faller on my most recent Top 100 Update, dropping over 50 spots to #95. While that may still be too high on the erratic southpaw, I cannot shake off his ability to hit triple digits from the left side and generate whiffs. He supports his hard fastball with a trio of secondaries, including a very nice changeup. If the strike-throwing doesn't improve, he likely ends up as a reliever, but he feels like the perfect complement to Johnny King.

Dameury Pena is an undersized infielder with limited power and a plus hit tool. The Blue Jays Special

John Klein is a depth reliever who is on the 40-man roster

Francys Romero@FrancysRomero

Source: The Blue Jays received three players and $250,000 in international bonus pool space from the Twins for Jeff Hoffman.

They now have $1.6M in international bonus pool space through December 15.

I like Hill who is an actual prospect and Twins are paying all his salary so fine with this move.

is there a chance we can get under the tax if we move bieber/scherzer?

I'm ok with the return even though the offensive profile is too much of the same. At least it looks really good ( if low level). If one of these contact guys can add to Clement type power, that could be a leadoff hitter. Probably org players or UT. I guess Klein maybe a Miles stand-in so the team can shut him down

Hoffman as Jay:

122gms, .95ip/gm, -2.06wpa, 102era-, 93fip-, 78xfip-, 0.8fwar, -0.3ra9war, 0.1awar/65gms


a very middling RP treated as an elite closer for the first time in his career for some reason.

Betcha Spencer Miles picks up Hoffman's job for the rest of '26

Hoffman was always a gamble. He didn’t have long track record of being a good pitcher before the Jays signed him.

Boy going to take a bit to process all of this and there might be more coming as deals just need to be signed off on pre-6 PM, not announced.  

From BNS:

"Blue Jays are done, source tells @ShiDavidi and me

Scherzer, Springer and the rest stay put"

As I said earlier, the issue with Hoffman was always going to be the willingness or not to retain salary. They did and got an interesting prospect.

Two clear themes today: pitchers who can’t hit the broad side of a barn but miss bats and hitters with no power but contact ability.

Now that is a shocker.  Figured Bieber was a lock to be gone.

King's K/9 is 11.89 and BB/9 is 5.0
Hill's K/9 is 15.4 and BB/9 is 7.4


Both have a 3.80 FIP

Bieber is the only player whom I assumed would get moved who is still there. But then his value might have not have warranted enough of a return given his performance and contract. The team may also want to see more of him and have the best shot at signing him for multiple years if he starts looking sharper.

Leaving the question of returns aside, I think they moved the most logical and likely pieces today. No issue with the FO’s assessment of who should go and who should stay.

I can’t shake the notion that they might want to resign Bieber.

Springer has no-trade and I think was only willing to go a couple of places. Jays aren't a whole lot worse than they were pre-deadline. Soriano upgrade on Gausman. Jays will miss Varsho as he's better than what they have but they will especially miss Hoffman who has been a top-25 reliever in baseball this year. I guess they can still sort of compete if Vlad ever decides to not suck.

Bieber has been injured, awful and makes real money. I doubt there was any market there. Same with Scherzer. Springer is a 10/5, so he was a different story. Limited market for him to begin with.

Depending on what the Jays do with CF, you could argue they might actually be better today than they were yesterday despite selling. Losing Hoffman is the real blow, but if Miles takes that spot then it may not be a big drop off.

The trades aren't over.

I imagine a couple more will trickle in after the deadline.

Ah, I didn't see the BNS tweet. My comment is still true, but I guess the Jays are done.

I'm glad to see the end of Hoffman, if only so I don't have to read any more discourse about him.

Was hoping they’d find a way to trade Sanchez and clear some of the OF logjam.

I’m beyond tired of the 100 wRC+, brutal D, corner OF mix we have.

For the roster....Smith replaces Varsho.

Soriano takes Gausmans spot in the rotation.

We need a reliever for Hoffman....Klein?

With how badly Varsho has been struggling, I think the team is better today than yesterday and they have definitely improved the outlook for 2027.

I'm not surprised Bieber didn't move. He's making some money and has been hurt most of the year, and since he came back has been inconsistent to say the least. Not surprising there weren't any takers.

Doesn’t Taillon technically take Hoffman’s spot for now?

Feels like Moreno (127 wRC+ this year) came out significantly ahead of Varsho in terms of present and future value, but obviously their careers are not over.

One thing to keep in mind about the Nimmala/Soriano trade is the front office’s timeline for success. With Atkins’s and Shapiro's recent contract extensions and many key players on the roster being in their prime, there will be significant pressure to win during the next few years.

I'm glad to see the end of Hoffman, if only so I don't have to read any more discourse about him.

That's about where I'm at. The whole thing had become toxic.

Of course now they've got to find another elite arm to slot back there for next year. He's been their best reliever the past couple of months.

One tends to put too much emphasis on recency bias. But it seems more likely now that Bieber's record-breaking 6 walk 1st inning in his last start kept him a Blue Jay.

Is there any possibility of the Jays extending him a QO if he finishes strong? Is there any possibility he doesn't accept?

Overall, solid deadline. Gausman trade only miss. They went too early for wrong players. They did manage to thread the needle maybe. Jays have enormous problems on offense and 0 help coming but they look very good on pitching side both short and long-term.

Jays can't QO Bieber as they did last year already.

It'll be interesting to see who starts and who's in the pen the rest of the way.


Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:


SP1 RH Cease (30) 30gms, 5.6ip/gm, 70era-, 62fip-, 72xfip-, 5.4awar/32
SP2 RH Yesavage (22) 20gms, 5.3ip/gm, 89era-, 91fip-, 106xfip-, 3.2awar/32
SP3 RH Soriano (27) 30gms, 5.3ip/gm, 96era-, 94fip-, 88xfip-, 2.9awar/32
SP4 RH Bieber (31) 14gms, 5.1ip/gm, 110era-, 125fip-, 99xfip-, 0.9awar/32
SP5 RH Taillon (34) 21gms, 5.3ip/gm, 111era-, 136fip-, 110xfip-, 0.9awar/32

SP6 RH Arrighetti (26) 22gms, 5.2ip/gm, 115era-, 127fip-, 120xfip-, 0.8awar/32
SP7 LH Corbin (36) 30gms, 4.2ip/gm, 138era-, 111fip-, 107xfip-, 0.2awar/32
SP8 RH SWR (25) 21gms, 4.2ip/gm, 129era-, 124fip-, 125xfip-, -0.2awar/32
SP9 RH Scherzer (41) 18gms, 4.5ip/gm, 155era-, 140fip-, 126xfip-, -0.9awar/32



RP1 RH Varland (28) 73gms, 1.1ip/gm, 55era-, 52fip-, 60xfip-, 2.1awar/65
RP2 RH Rogers (35) 79gms, 1.0ip/gm, 46era-, 73fip-, 93xfip-, 1.4awar/65
RP3 RH Miles (25) 31gms, 2.3ip/gm, 75era-, 69fip-, 76xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP4 LH Fluharty (24) 71gms, 0.8ip/gm, 85era-, 88fip-, 95xfip-, 0.6awar/65
RP5 RH Fisher (25) 70gms, 1.0ip/gm, 93era-, 98fip-, 99xfip-, 0.2awar/65

RP6 LH Mantiply (35) 17gms, 1.0ip/gm, 49era-, 68fip-, 83xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP7 RH Rodriguez (29) 30gms, 1.0ip/gm, 136era-, 140fip-, 144xfip-, -0.8war/65
RP8 LH Little (29) 38gms, 0.8ip/gm, 178era-, 118fip-, 100xfip-, -1.1awar/65

RP9 RH Dallas (26) 2gms, 2.3ip/gm, 47era-, 74fip-, 145xfip-, 2.1awar/65
RP10 RH Andrews (30) 2gms, 1.5ip/gm, 0era-, 105fip-, 155xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP11 RH Estrada (26) 4gms, 2.3ip/gm, 116era-, 147fip-, 122xfip, -0.4awar/65
RP12 RH Van Eyk (27) 3gms, 1.9ip/gm, 115era-, 145fip-, 156xfip-, -1.2awar/65
RP13 RH Lee (27) 3gms, 1.1ip/gm, 195era-, 329fip-, 202xfip-, -2.9awar/65

Bieber picked up his option, he hasn’t been offered a QO before.

Through all this I can’t believe they didn’t pick up a near MLB ready RH hitter, if only limited to the corners.

Did the Jays QO Bieber last year? For some reason I thought he picked up a player option.

Couldn't have QO'ed Bieber last year because he was traded mid-season. Can QO him this year if some miracle occurs the next 2 months.

"Hoffman who has been a top-25 reliever in baseball this year"

Top-25 by fWAR

Bottom-25 by ra9WAR

An interesting deadline. I’m disappointed they didn’t clean up the 40man/outfield situation or pick up a long term piece to help fix the offense.

I guess it'll be tough to take Bieber and Scherzer out of the rotation.

So....

SP1 Cease
SP2 Soriano
SP3 Yesavage
SP4 Bieber
SP5 Scherzer

RP1 Varland
RP2 Rogers
RP3 Miles
RP4 Fluharty
RP5 Fisher
RP6 Arrighetti
RP7 Taillon
RP8 Corbin (injured) - Little/Mantiply fill in

Arrighetti has elite extension of that means anything. I think his value lies in having one more option and being the 6th starter next year down in Buffalo.

They need a power left bat, not a right bat.

The right bat need is for a bench bat who actually hits lefties.

If my estimates are correct, and my math might be off, but I think they got under the 3rd threshold by ~2mil. So that would get them back their pick position. $282m cbt.

Yeah the 1-year deal for Bieber was a contract option, not a QO, and Bieber has never had a QO so the Jays could decide to QO Bieber in the offseason (assuming the general owners-PA end of year lockout doesn't impact the rules). It would be a no brainer if Bieber seems mostly back to form by the end of the year, but questionable if he still looks like he has so far. But you can never have too much pitching and it is hard to have a 1-year deal be very wrong. We are talking about something like 1 year ~23.1 M deal for any QO players.

I agree with some of the sentiment on here, the return for Gausman was a little light. I do wonder if the Jays FO did send him to his preferred destination. It would almost make more sense than the fact that they tried to trade him too early. The FO was apparently having internal conversations with him and I’m sure that despite his preference to stay as a Jay, he wanted another shot at the post-season. We may never really know. He can always come back next year if he really wants to.

If it’s true, that they sent him to his preferred destination, it might not seem to be a shrewd move on the surface by the FO, but I’m hoping this pays off long-term in the sense that going to Toronto as a FA is more desirable than it has been in previous years, where this team and organization are trying to build a reputation for taking care of its players, etc. That might change the impression and reputation some FA players have for playing in Toronto. We’ll see.

Pretty sure the last Player Poll I saw had only positive comments about Toronto and the Jays organisation. I remember posting them here.

Even if Gausman had wanted to go to the Cubs, they traded their #3 prospect for Clay Holmes today who is definitely in same range as Gausman. Jays just love these high contact low power guys for some reason.

Yes. Even if the Cubs were the only team he wanted to go to, you'd think the Jays could have negotiated a better return.

My understanding is that if there's no baseball next year players do not get credit for that season and everything just carries forward so the Jays would still have Soriano for two more years.

With RH power in short supply surprised that the Jays couldn't find a home for Springer but maybe he used his 5/10 rights. Overall, happy with today's moves especially with adding depth to the pitching side and gaining assets to potentially trade this winter.

Arrighetti is on the IL for the next couple of weeks.
Right foot nerve irritation.

I’d imagine only being able to negotiate with one team would be pretty tough, especially if the team you’re negotiating with knows it.

Yes, good things are said about Toronto, that’s encouraging. I mean, Dylan Cease signed to come over here. I’m hoping that the trend continues and next time a high profile FA is deciding between the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, and Jays that we can sign that guy because the organization will hopefully have a good cultural thing going for it. That might tip the scales with other things being equal, like money, or if there are less desirable traits to playing here, like cold springs and autumns, the “turf” or playing in a “foreign country” or whatever reasons players have, or have had, for not choosing Toronto.

The pitching staff is looking solid for this year and next but we still need some regular outfielders that can hit.

June, you have Southisene listed as a pitcher and the Jays losing the prospects they actually acquired for Hoffman.

I guess no bites on Bieber. His season turned out incredibly disappointing. Biggest issue for me for off-season is overhauling offense. Move out some of the current guys and get new ones. Jays need at least two big bats. The lineup is just bad from top to bottom. How are they going to get two big bats? No idea.

"I’d imagine only being able to negotiate with one team would be pretty tough, especially if the team you’re negotiating with knows it."

Perhaps, but I don't know why the Cubs would necessarily know they were the only suitor.

The only reason I campaigned or considered names like Bo, Devers and others is because this team is pathetic offensively and stands to get worse next year.

The biggest loser this deadline is the same as many others: Mike Trout, fading (faded) superstar.

They need a power left bat, not a right bat. The right bat need is for a bench bat who actually hits lefties.

Comeback player of 2027 -- Anthony Santander (??)

I’m sure teams made offers on Bieber after seeing what it took to pry Gausman. The Jays likely kept him to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, and because there’s value to the QO if he pitches well down the stretch. They still need another SP for next year, and this makes it more likely it can be Bieber if things align.

Scherzer does not make any real money this year, so he was also kept just in case.

Trout is a historically great player who is having another good (playoff-free) season. Were teams inquiring about obtaining his age-35 to 38 seasons at $35.5m per year? I would be a bit surprised if that were the case. Maybe a team would be willing to do that if the Angels paid for a portion of his remaining contract. 

Trout is on pace for a 4-4.5 WAR season. In today’s world $35m is a bargain for that production. Of course, he’s been healthier than he has been for a while this year. It would be a gamble, but one I would take with only three years remaining. I don’t see him moving given how often it’s been on the table and not happened now.

I think Trout has four years left on his contract (2027-2030).

You’re right. Thx greenfrog.

There's no need to the same return multiple times.
Or maybe not every team has contact hitters without power in their system.

Maybe Trout is not willing to move, especially not at the deadline.

Soriano and Arrighetti were both pitcher of the month in the AL this year.

I find it humorous that the Jays traded Hoffman to the Twins to be their closer when a year ago they traded Varland who now serves as our closer. So actual trade is

To Blue Jays:

Varland
Hill
Klein
Pena

To Twins:

Hoffman
Rojas
Roden

Given the king's ransom Varland is worth I like this closer swap for the Jays

Don't forget Gold Glove winner Ty France!

If you want to look it as one big reliever swap, since Varland wasn't traded for to be the closer specifically, you could also add Nance and Sprock to the list.

Ty France has been great this year (142 wRC+). He was OK for the Blue Jays, but imagine if we’d gotten the 2026 version of him last year.

That is nuts what France has done this year - no one saw that coming. His best OPS+ ever at 138 (previous best 133 in 43 games in '20). If anyone had bet on France having more than double Vlad's HR total this year (16 vs 6) while Vlad played more games, I'd suspect they would've been taken to the funny farm.

I am ok with the moves the Jays made this deadline.

1) Lowered salary so the the draft penalty does not happen. I don't know the $ or the details.
2) I personally don't think we lowered our shot at the playoffs. Some bauxites agree with this and some don't.
3) The best prospect in or out was Nimmala. Too bad we lost him. But Dasan Hill came in.

Other things that I like about the deadline:

A lot of the heavy lifting has been done for 2027. Cease, Yesavage and Soriano are a good top 3 rotation pieces.

The O has not been improved but Vlad hopefully gets better. Barger and Santander contribute more. Kirk and Okamoto continue to be productive. There is always the possibility of a career year happening for someone.

I think our depth is very good.

Bpoz, the Jays did not lower their salary enough to avoid a draft penalty. They needed to get under $284M to do that