So, time for the fun of free agency for a month then lord knows how long until we get anything baseball related outside of contract talks.
So the Jays obvious needs are LF/RF/2B/SP with RP always something to be dug into and DH is empty but they want to keep it open for Vlad more often it seems. Cot's Contracts has the Jays at $230,144,416 right now vs the $317 mil last year so safe to say they have up to $87 mil to spend.
So how to spend? Predictions on years/dollars via MLB TR 2026-27 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions
- SP: Tarik Skubal: 9/$425 - very unlikely but fun to dream of, Trevor Rogers 5/$115, Freddy Peralta 5/$110 - these 2 are consolation prizes; Kaima Taira - from Japan 4/$72 for a guy with a 1.78 lifetime ERA in Japan seems like a deal but is short at 5'8" which scares off a lot of scouts. If Skubal is impossible then this guy might be the best option.
- LF/RF: Seiya Suzuki - 4/$105 odds are the Jays big target. Great bat, meh defense (was bad, but did well last year); Randy Arozarena 4/$100 horrid defense but WOW bat; Teruaki Sato - 5/$80 - 40 HR annually in Japan, won a triple crown last year, mostly a 3B but plays a fair amount in RF;
- RP: Adrian Morejon - yeah, yeah, I keep beating this drum. 5/$80 for a great LH setup man seems expensive, but mix him with Rogers and Varland - other teams will find comebacks damn hard.
- 2B: Brandon Lowe 3/$69 - is his defensive improvement this past year for real? Can that power stay? If so then that could be a great deal; Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 2/$40 his poor attitude seen often with the NYY will cost him big time, no interest due to that; Luis Arraez 3/$48 - a LOT like Bateman - a singles hitter who counts on a great BABIP; Gleyber Torres - unknown, a cheap option who is consistently just over a 100 OPS+.
Given the Jays have been after the Japanese market for years I could see them going all-out here and getting Taira, Suzuki, and Sato. = $18+$26.25+$16 = $60.25 leaving the Jays shy of $300 mil. I doubt they'll be that cheap though. I think MLBTR is grossly underestimating what guys will get this winter. If they will sign for that the Jays should do it immediately. Add $16 a year for Morejon and the club is set outside of maybe 2B (Clement might be OK but I could see Torres as a cheap sign to fill in the roster, or go all-out and grab Lowe).
MLBTR's 3 experts have the Jay signing (at least 1 of the 3 picking the Jays to sign): Trevor Rogers, Suzuki, Arozarena, Taira, Lowe, Kevin Gausman (2 picked the Jays here). While being in the hunt for Skubal, Peralta, Michael King, Tyler Mahle, Clay Holmes, Ian Happ, Chisholm Jr, Foster Griffin, Dustin May, David Peterson, Bryan Abreu, Hiromi Itoh, Joc Pederson, and Taylor Ward. Lets see others try to fit the roughly $80-90 mil I'm assuming the Jays have to spend this winter (on a per year basis). If do do the 3 Japanese players plus Lowe and Morejon I'll be grinning ear to ear, hoping beyond hope we get a 2027. I figured MLBTR would estimate better than I could, but other sites did this too - FanGraphs 2027 Top 50 Free Agents is a good source - Skubal 10/$380, Rogers 4/$104, Peralta 4/$92, Taira 3/$48, Suzuki 4/$108, Arozarena 3/$69, Sato 5/$110, Morejon 3/$72, Lowe 2/$38, Chisholm 4/$92, Arraez 2/$38, Torres 2/$28. Using FG my 3 Japanese are $16+$27+$22 = $65 mil, a bit more expensive. Morejon $24, Lowe $19 - that Morejon seems way too high, no way a non-closer would get that much from me but the Japanese trio plus Lowe for $74 mil? Sign me up!
My bet is the Jays use Rogers fiscal flexibility to do big bonuses for guys, bonuses they get paid regardless of a lockout. That could be the divider between the Jays and other rich clubs this winter. Skubal at $38 to $47.2 per year is just too much to make sense imo - let the Dodgers do that. Lets see others guesses as to what the Jays do.