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So. In the second Yankees thread, PeteyBaseball posted this:

I don’t understand MLB’s scheduling. The All-Star break should be closer to the mid point of the season. We’ll be at almost 100 games by the time next Sunday rolls around. 

And I thought - well, I think I know why this happens. They always play the All-Star Game in July, but they've moved Opening Day back further and further as the years have gone by. (Presumably because you now need more than ten days for the post-season. 

But then I thought - well, is this actually true?

So yes, dear reader. I looked up the date of every All-Star Game, since 1933. And then I looked up on which date the season began, so I would know exactly how many days had passed between Opening Day and the All-Star Game.  And then I took a random team - let's call them the Cincinnati Reds - and checked to see how many games they had played by the All-Star Break.  And you know what?

They always play the All-Star Game in July, but they've moved Opening Day back further and further as the years have gone by. 

The very first All-Star Game was played on 6 July 1933, and that's still the earliest date ever for an All-Star Game (they've done it that early five times now.) Opening Day was on 12 April that year, and in the 85 days between Opening Day and the All-Star Game, Cincinnati had played 76 games, almost exactly half of their 154 game schedule. This year's game - like last year's - comes 111 days after Opening Day. That is the longest period ever between Opening Day and the All-Star Game, and Cincinnati will have played 97 games when it comes around. You will notice that this year's schedule gives them 14 off days in the first half; in 1933 they appear to have just 9. They actually had quite a few more; because they played 15 double-headers in the first half of the season, they really had 24 off days. As late as 1961, the Reds had 11 first-half double-headers. The scheduled double-header is an endangered species in the modern game.

How late can the All-Star game get? Well, in the early 1970s, we had three consecutive All-Star games played in very late in July. The latest of all (if we ignore 1981, which I've been attempting to do since.... well, since 1981) was the 1972 game, played on 25 July. We should immediately remember that that too was a season shortened by a strike, this one in April, which got things off to a later start than usual. But for some reason the 1973 All-Star game was played on 24 July and the 1973 game was played on 23 July. Both times it was 110 days since Opening Day, and Cincinnati had played 99 games by the 1973 break and 98 games by the time the 1974 game was played. That's still the largest portion of their schedule coming before the break since they began playing the mid-summer classic. Those two seasons - 1973 and 1974 - are the only times Cincinnati has played 60% of their schedule before the break. But they're getting pretty close to matching it. 

The most common date for the All-Star Game? It's 13 July (14 times); 10 July (10 times) and 11 July (yes, 11 times!) are the next most common. If you were to work out the average date... it would be 12 July.

And now we know!

The Blue Jays get their first look at Mike Trout and his friends this weekend. The 2025 Angels are certainly better than last year's group, which lost 99 games. They've actually crawled back up to even .500, by winning 7 of 10 since Ron Washington stepped away for health reasons. 

I don't think they're as good as their record. You probably look at their run differential and agree with me. I, of course, care little for that. Me, I looked at the Angels 16-8 record in the close games and said - "Ah-ha! Luck has been on their side!" 

The Blue Jays, incidentally have gone 13-10 in one-run games, which is about what we should expect from a team that's gone 36-28 in their other games. It means they have a Run Differential of +3 in the one-run games, because that's how one-run games work. They've gone 11-14 in the blowouts, with a Run Differential there of -19. So in those 48 games, the team has gone 24-24, scoring 221 and allowing 237 (-16.) In their other 39 games, they've gone 25-14, scoring 180 runs and allowing 155.

Basically, they give up more runs when they lose.

The Angels have a middle of the pack offense, thanks mostly to Mike Trout and a couple of the outfielders. It's the run prevention that has been decidedly mediocre. Old chum Yusei Kikuchi has pitched very well for them, albeit to little reward. He won't be pitching this weekend. We will see veterans Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks, the long-time Cub. Presumably, they're around to provide veteran savvy, eat a few innings, and buy time for the prospects. I dunno. Do they actually have prospects?


Matchups

Fri 4 July - Hendricks (5-6, 4.66) vs Lauer (4-1, 2.60)
Sat 5 July - Kochanwiza (3-8, 5.44) vs Scherzer (0-0, 4.85)
Sun 6 July - Anderson (2-5, 4.12) vs Gausman (6-6, 4.18)
Los Angeles (Angels) at Toronto, July 4-6 | 25 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#463037) #
Magpie touched on this, but here I go anyway. Angels are 18th with a 96 wRC+. Their 4.52 ERA is 24th, one spot worse than ours. Their defence is atrocious, FG has only the Nats worse.

Mentioned in the Yankees thread I was looking up something for this series when I happened to find the Yankees being the worst clutch team in MLB so far. But if you look way up, you'll find why 2 teams who should be a combined 9 games under .500 are 11 games over. Angels have been the best clutch team in baseball with the Jays 3rd.

Glevin - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#463039) #
Santander on 60 day IL which means he can't be back before July 30. Jays really messed this up and it was obvious at the time. Hopefully, he can come back and be the guy he's been the last few years at a crucial time.
pooks137 - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#463040) #
Bruihl down to open up a spot for Estrada.

Schneider's down to a single lefty.

RIP Brendon Little's arm.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#463041) #
Mitch Bannon
@MitchBannon
Alek Manoah should have one more live bullpen session before getting into rehab games, but he’s closing in on real action #BlueJays
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#463042) #
The Mets have scored three unanswered runs and they now lead the Yankees 6-5 in the 8th inning. Alonso walked and McNeil homered off Luke Weaver in the 7th to give the NYM the lead.
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#463043) #
Should point out that the Angels hitting stats are fairly mediocre overall, but they've been scorching the ball the last few weeks.
hypobole - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#463045) #
Weaver came into the Jays series with a 1.53 ERA in 28 games. 2 Springer homers later it was 2.64 and it's now 3.18. Rough times for the 3rd place Yankees.
soupman - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#463046) #
Any chance the O’s are sellers and would trade in division?

They’ve got Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto on expiring deals- and playing well again this year. As for starters they also have Eflin who has not been pitching well this year and whose fastball seems to have lost a few mph since his strongest seasons.

Of the teams already out of it, it seems like the players who are having good years with good peripherals are mostly young and controllable, and the guys on expiring deals or in trade talks like Alcantara or Gallen may not even be better options than what the Jays might get from Manoah returning or catching lightning in a bottle with someone else in the system.
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#463047) #
Cal Raleigh has hit two more home runs and now has 35 on the season.
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#463048) #
TB and Minnesota are tied 3-3 in the 8th.
scottt - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#463049) #
I wouldn't be surprised if the Angels are buyers at the deadline and collapse right after.
scottt - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#463050) #
The scheduled double-header is an endangered species in the modern game.
It's actually extinct, isn't it?
scottt - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#463051) #
The Blue Jays get their first look at Mike Trout and his friends this weekend.

What about that series in Anaheim May 6-8 in which the Jays dropped 2 close games before starting to turn the season around?
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#463052) #
Fangraphs current "make playoffs" odds:

NYY 88.6%
Tor 81.0%
TB 75.9%

Other AL WC contender "make playoffs" odds:

Sea 65.6%
Tex 24.0%
Bos 19.2%
Minn 18.4%
Cle 12.3%
KC 9.2%
LAA 8.2%
Magpie - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#463053) #
What about that series in Anaheim May 6-8

What about it?

(I'm old, what can I say.)
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#463054) #
first pitch walkoff HR for minny in the 9th to take out TB.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#463055) #
Lauer tonight just what the doctor ordered.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#463056) #
Glad he tried to push Lauer through another inning tbh. He was dealing, bullpen is burnt, and he had a better chance vs the top of the order than most.

Didn't work out tho.
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#463057) #
Clutch pitching by Yariel to K Adell with the bases loaded T8.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#463058) #
Chad steadily earning back our confidence.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#463059) #
ha - Ernie's aura caused that.

92-93 - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#463060) #
Heckuva bunt from Clement.
Glevin - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#463061) #
Any way to win!
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#463063) #
best bunting team of all time!
John Northey - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#463064) #
Not pretty, but a win is a win is a win.  Video of that end at MLB.com (since few saw it on Apple I suspect).
Los Angeles (Angels) at Toronto, July 4-6 | 25 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.