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So. In the second Yankees thread, PeteyBaseball posted this:

I don’t understand MLB’s scheduling. The All-Star break should be closer to the mid point of the season. We’ll be at almost 100 games by the time next Sunday rolls around. 

And I thought - well, I think I know why this happens. They always play the All-Star Game in July, but they've moved Opening Day back further and further as the years have gone by. (Presumably because you now need more than ten days for the post-season. 

But then I thought - well, is this actually true?

So yes, dear reader. I looked up the date of every All-Star Game, since 1933. And then I looked up on which date the season began, so I would know exactly how many days had passed between Opening Day and the All-Star Game.  And then I took a random team - let's call them the Cincinnati Reds - and checked to see how many games they had played by the All-Star Break.  And you know what?

They always play the All-Star Game in July, but they've moved Opening Day back further and further as the years have gone by. 

The very first All-Star Game was played on 6 July 1933, and that's still the earliest date ever for an All-Star Game (they've done it that early five times now.) Opening Day was on 12 April that year, and in the 85 days between Opening Day and the All-Star Game, Cincinnati had played 76 games, almost exactly half of their 154 game schedule. This year's game - like last year's - comes 111 days after Opening Day. That is the longest period ever between Opening Day and the All-Star Game, and Cincinnati will have played 97 games when it comes around. You will notice that this year's schedule gives them 14 off days in the first half; in 1933 they appear to have just 9. They actually had quite a few more; because they played 15 double-headers in the first half of the season, they really had 24 off days. As late as 1961, the Reds had 11 first-half double-headers. The scheduled double-header is an endangered species in the modern game.

How late can the All-Star game get? Well, in the early 1970s, we had three consecutive All-Star games played in very late in July. The latest of all (if we ignore 1981, which I've been attempting to do since.... well, since 1981) was the 1972 game, played on 25 July. We should immediately remember that that too was a season shortened by a strike, this one in April, which got things off to a later start than usual. But for some reason the 1973 All-Star game was played on 24 July and the 1973 game was played on 23 July. Both times it was 110 days since Opening Day, and Cincinnati had played 99 games by the 1973 break and 98 games by the time the 1974 game was played. That's still the largest portion of their schedule coming before the break since they began playing the mid-summer classic. Those two seasons - 1973 and 1974 - are the only times Cincinnati has played 60% of their schedule before the break. But they're getting pretty close to matching it. 

The most common date for the All-Star Game? It's 13 July (14 times); 10 July (10 times) and 11 July (yes, 11 times!) are the next most common. If you were to work out the average date... it would be 12 July.

And now we know!

The Blue Jays get their first look at Mike Trout and his friends this weekend. The 2025 Angels are certainly better than last year's group, which lost 99 games. They've actually crawled back up to even .500, by winning 7 of 10 since Ron Washington stepped away for health reasons. 

I don't think they're as good as their record. You probably look at their run differential and agree with me. I, of course, care little for that. Me, I looked at the Angels 16-8 record in the close games and said - "Ah-ha! Luck has been on their side!" 

The Blue Jays, incidentally have gone 13-10 in one-run games, which is about what we should expect from a team that's gone 36-28 in their other games. It means they have a Run Differential of +3 in the one-run games, because that's how one-run games work. They've gone 11-14 in the blowouts, with a Run Differential there of -19. So in those 48 games, the team has gone 24-24, scoring 221 and allowing 237 (-16.) In their other 39 games, they've gone 25-14, scoring 180 runs and allowing 155.

Basically, they give up more runs when they lose.

The Angels have a middle of the pack offense, thanks mostly to Mike Trout and a couple of the outfielders. It's the run prevention that has been decidedly mediocre. Old chum Yusei Kikuchi has pitched very well for them, albeit to little reward. He won't be pitching this weekend. We will see veterans Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks, the long-time Cub. Presumably, they're around to provide veteran savvy, eat a few innings, and buy time for the prospects. I dunno. Do they actually have prospects?


Matchups

Fri 4 July - Hendricks (5-6, 4.66) vs Lauer (4-1, 2.60)
Sat 5 July - Kochanwiza (3-8, 5.44) vs Scherzer (0-0, 4.85)
Sun 6 July - Anderson (2-5, 4.12) vs Gausman (6-6, 4.18)
Los Angeles (Angels) at Toronto, July 4-6 | 140 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#463037) #
Magpie touched on this, but here I go anyway. Angels are 18th with a 96 wRC+. Their 4.52 ERA is 24th, one spot worse than ours. Their defence is atrocious, FG has only the Nats worse.

Mentioned in the Yankees thread I was looking up something for this series when I happened to find the Yankees being the worst clutch team in MLB so far. But if you look way up, you'll find why 2 teams who should be a combined 9 games under .500 are 11 games over. Angels have been the best clutch team in baseball with the Jays 3rd.

Glevin - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#463039) #
Santander on 60 day IL which means he can't be back before July 30. Jays really messed this up and it was obvious at the time. Hopefully, he can come back and be the guy he's been the last few years at a crucial time.
pooks137 - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#463040) #
Bruihl down to open up a spot for Estrada.

Schneider's down to a single lefty.

RIP Brendon Little's arm.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#463041) #
Mitch Bannon
@MitchBannon
Alek Manoah should have one more live bullpen session before getting into rehab games, but he’s closing in on real action #BlueJays
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#463042) #
The Mets have scored three unanswered runs and they now lead the Yankees 6-5 in the 8th inning. Alonso walked and McNeil homered off Luke Weaver in the 7th to give the NYM the lead.
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#463043) #
Should point out that the Angels hitting stats are fairly mediocre overall, but they've been scorching the ball the last few weeks.
hypobole - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#463045) #
Weaver came into the Jays series with a 1.53 ERA in 28 games. 2 Springer homers later it was 2.64 and it's now 3.18. Rough times for the 3rd place Yankees.
soupman - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#463046) #
Any chance the O’s are sellers and would trade in division?

They’ve got Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto on expiring deals- and playing well again this year. As for starters they also have Eflin who has not been pitching well this year and whose fastball seems to have lost a few mph since his strongest seasons.

Of the teams already out of it, it seems like the players who are having good years with good peripherals are mostly young and controllable, and the guys on expiring deals or in trade talks like Alcantara or Gallen may not even be better options than what the Jays might get from Manoah returning or catching lightning in a bottle with someone else in the system.
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#463047) #
Cal Raleigh has hit two more home runs and now has 35 on the season.
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#463048) #
TB and Minnesota are tied 3-3 in the 8th.
scottt - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#463049) #
I wouldn't be surprised if the Angels are buyers at the deadline and collapse right after.
scottt - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#463050) #
The scheduled double-header is an endangered species in the modern game.
It's actually extinct, isn't it?
scottt - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#463051) #
The Blue Jays get their first look at Mike Trout and his friends this weekend.

What about that series in Anaheim May 6-8 in which the Jays dropped 2 close games before starting to turn the season around?
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#463052) #
Fangraphs current "make playoffs" odds:

NYY 88.6%
Tor 81.0%
TB 75.9%

Other AL WC contender "make playoffs" odds:

Sea 65.6%
Tex 24.0%
Bos 19.2%
Minn 18.4%
Cle 12.3%
KC 9.2%
LAA 8.2%
Magpie - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#463053) #
What about that series in Anaheim May 6-8

What about it?

(I'm old, what can I say.)
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#463054) #
first pitch walkoff HR for minny in the 9th to take out TB.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#463055) #
Lauer tonight just what the doctor ordered.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#463056) #
Glad he tried to push Lauer through another inning tbh. He was dealing, bullpen is burnt, and he had a better chance vs the top of the order than most.

Didn't work out tho.
greenfrog - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#463057) #
Clutch pitching by Yariel to K Adell with the bases loaded T8.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#463058) #
Chad steadily earning back our confidence.
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#463059) #
ha - Ernie's aura caused that.

92-93 - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#463060) #
Heckuva bunt from Clement.
Glevin - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#463061) #
Any way to win!
uglyone - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#463063) #
best bunting team of all time!
John Northey - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#463064) #
Not pretty, but a win is a win is a win.  Video of that end at MLB.com (since few saw it on Apple I suspect).
SK in NJ - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#463065) #
Just keep racking up the W's any way you can. The standings don't care how you get it done. If you can keep winning games with the lineup the Jays put out there tonight, then you take whatever you can get.
Marc Hulet - Friday, July 04 2025 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#463066) #
Of note, Jays didn't learn anything from the Santander debacle (and others) and Gimenez couldn't get through a single game before his ankle almost came off. Thankfully, Bo looked ok. Gotta figure Gimenez is due for an IL stint now as the club almost ran out of guys tonight.

I'd go with Loperfido - I think hes better at 1B than Wagner and has good D, as well as decent base running. Clase got picked off in the AAA game tonight. But Roden didn't play tonight at AAA so perhaps he's on the ol' taxi squad already.

They might need significant innings from Estrada tomorrow after Scherzer. And there aren't many arms beyond that... Garcia, Fisher and maybe you can squeeze any inning from Sandlin.
John Northey - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#463067) #
Seems more and more trade talk is building up.  Starters are a key thing - but who is out there that'd help?
  • Mitch Keller - 116 ERA+ for Pittsburgh, 18 starts, 106 1/3 IP, each of the past 3 seasons he has thrown 150+ IP over 29+ starts with ERA+'s of 100 or better each year. Certainly seems to be the type the Jays like, able to throw lots of solid innings year in/year out. Signed for 3 more years at $16-$18-$20 mil plus $15 mil this year.  Would be a good replacement for Bassitt post 2025.
  • Andrew Heaney - 102 ERA+ for Pittsburgh, free agent post 2025, Very cheap in '25 at $5.25 mil but safe to say Pittsburgh will trade him.  Not as solid as Keller, but a good 4/5 guy averaging 5 1/2 IP per game.
  • Sandy Alcantara - 2022 Cy winner, but not having a good recovery from TJ surgery. 6.98 ERA, but was showing hope until he was pounded by Arizona (7 R in 6 IP). I'm pretty sure Miami will be asking for the sun/moon/stars for him (signed for 2 more years) so I doubt he moves unless he keeps improving.
  • Jeffrey Springs - A's 103 ERA+ over 16 starts, 2 relief. K/9 down a lot (from 10.1 last year to 7.3 this year) so a big flashing warning light there. Signed for just $10.5 per year in 25/26, $15 in '27 (team option). Good potential, but some red lights.
Relief help matters too...
  • David Bednar - yep, another Pirate. 156 ERA+ (130 lifetime) 12.7 K/9 vs 2.7 BB/9 this year. A solid closer who'd make a killer 1/2 punch with Hoffman. Arbitration for 2026 then free agency so an expensive extra for the Pirates.
Lots more out there, but that is what jumped out at me looking at MLB Trade Rumors Top 40 Trade Candidates For The 2025 Deadline.

I'm thinking the Jays will be hunting hard for a surprise, but they've done a few deals with Pittsburgh so who knows?  Could grab both a starter and reliever easily there.
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 02:09 AM EDT (#463068) #
Who gets bumped from the rotation if we get a starter?
John Northey - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 03:01 AM EDT (#463069) #
Excellent question - most likely Lauer despite how well he has been doing. Odds are he'd be piggybacking with Scherzer or they go to a 6 man rotation to try to get some rest for everyone.
Michael - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 03:14 AM EDT (#463070) #
"Cal Raleigh has hit two more home runs and now has 35 on the season"

That's more HR this season then in any past full season. Pretty crazy peak/fluke year or major step forward at 28 (although lots of people say catchers peak late). It leads baseball 3 more than Judge in 2nd, 5 more than Ohtani in 3rd, 7 more than Suarez in 4th, and 9 more than Schwarber in 5th. The top 5 are pretty spaced out. It is also 20 more than Springer (top Jay), or more than Springer, Vlad, and Kirk combined. The gap between Kirk and Raleigh is roughly the same as the gap in team HR between the Jays (up to 17th in mlb) and the Mariners (only 6th in mlb despite the mlb leading player).
electric carrot - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#463071) #
Re: Ernie's bunt last night.
It never fails to seem ironic to me that pitchers so often struggle to throw the ball to first base. Here's a guy whose full time job is throwing 60 feet 6inches with laser precision and speed and movement that .00001% of people are capable of doing. Yet can't hit a wide target of six by six feet or so from about the same distance that would be routine for anybody in the world twelve years old or older whose played baseball at some point in their life.
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#463072) #
Tough times for the Giants. Verlander made his 14th start and still doesn't have a win after getting pounded for 6 runs in 3 IP by the A's.

The team has only won 6 of 17 games since the Rafael Devers trade, in part because he's hit .215/.307/.369 (despite a .316 BABIP) with a 35% K rate. Measly production for a full time DH.
uglyone - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#463073) #
Lauer would get bumped, especially since we could use another lefty in the pen.

But at the same time i've been pretty confident in Lauer since his first few outings. This isn't some bum nobody. This was a first round pick with a very good arm who was a legit good pitcher for a bunch of years before having one terrible part-season apparently due to a couple different injuries (nothing requiring major surgery though).

But his stuff seems back to normal now so i'd expect him to continue being a solid pitcher again (though not quite as good as he's been for us so far).
Magpie - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#463074) #
pitchers so often struggle to throw the ball to first base.

Back in the day, the Orioles used to teach their pitchers, after fielding a ball, to pull their hands in to their belt before making a throw to a base - it was a way to make the fielding throw more like what they do when they're pitching. So, yeah, this has come up before!
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#463075) #
This was Lauer's 5th start in a row. Pitch counts have climbed:72, 75, 86, 85, 94.

25 IP, 23 H, 9 R, 6 BB, 27 K, 3.24 ERA, 3.33 FIP.

This is a type of pitcher a team trades FOR, not demotes to the pen. He should have at least 4 starts to get more information, but the prospect capital to acquire a similar pitcher would be better served to acquire a difference-making lefty reliever at least.
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#463076) #
Forgot about All Star break, so 4 starts at most for Lauer before deadline.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#463077) #
My wish list again is two higher end relievers and a power bat. Whenever I propose any possible names that will actually improve the Jays I'm reminded teams "competing" won't trade those players.

I still think these teams are the best partners who will sell:
Cleveland (6 games behind 1 game WC play-in)
Minnesota (4 games behind 1 game WC play-in)
Arizona (4 games behind 1 game WC play-in with 3 teams also ahead of them for that spot)

Other teams that will sell but can't provide same package deal:
Miami
Pittsburgh

I still think Cleveland moves on from Ramirez this off season. He will make 21 million, 23 million and 25 million in his 33, 34 and 35 ages. This is usually when Cleveland looks to move on and replenish their farm. Maybe this is the guy you trade your farm for to make history.

dalimon5 - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#463078) #
Cleveland 4th in their division and 1-9 last 10. And yes I know Ramirez is underpaid at that contract value and yes I know he can veto any trades.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#463080) #
In honor of the upcoming draft, did you know that in 2013, the BlueJays drafted Rowdy Tellez, Tim Mayza, Tim Locastro, Kendall Graveman, Matthew Boyd, Dane Dunning (did not sign), Danny Jansen... and one round after him in the 17th round: Eric Lauer (did not sign out of high school)... went on to become a first rounder along with Dunning.
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#463081) #
The AL wildcard "race" has really helped the Jays - their playoff odds now at FG are almost 84%.

What it isn't doing is providing clarity as to who exactly will be sellers. Of all the teams fighting for the WC, only LAA at 6-4 have a winning record the past 10 games. Not a lot different in the NL, with only MIL and CIN at 6-4.
Gerry - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#463082) #
Yimi Garcia to the IL, ankle sprain. Robinson Pina activated.
uglyone - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#463084) #
More optimistic about Pina than Estrada tbh.
Magpie - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#463085) #


The bat is perfectly level along the top of the strike zone (if you have to raise the bat, you shouldn't - it's a ball), top hand is relaxed, he's waiting to catch the ball with the bat rather than jabbing at it. It looks like a still from an instructional video on how to bunt.
John Northey - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#463086) #
With Garcia going down and how Schneider uses relievers maybe the pen takes over top priority in trades. Find a A+ one who is getting too expensive for his club - David Bednar (1 more year of control, but as a closer he'll make a lot in arbitration), Emmanuel Clase ($6 mil next year, $10 mil options for each of next 2, Cleveland known for dumping anyone making money), Emilio Pagán (Reds - final year pre-free agency). Those are a few really good closers who could help a lot - mix/match with Hoffman for the 9th, come playoffs have a shutdown 8/9th inning.
scottt - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#463089) #
Vintage Bichette defense and vintage Barger defense.
mathesond - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#463090) #
Love this team. Scherzer gets the bad end of the most egregious missed strike call Ben Shulman expects to see all season, so Barger's defense picks him up.
Chuck - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#463091) #
Weren't players taught to not wrap their index and second fingers around the bat, to keep from exposing them to the ball? Keeping those fingers behind the bat also allows for a softer grip that can cushion the impact of the ball on the bat.
John Northey - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#463092) #
Springer is having an insane year this week.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#463093) #
Springer now up to a 152 wRC+, which is top-ten among qualified MLB hitters this year.
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#463094) #
What a great play by Schneider, blocking the bag on the stolen base.
John Northey - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#463095) #
Nice debut for Estrada. An IFA from 2018, signed for $30k. Only other guy the Jays signed that year as an IFA to make it so far is Orelvis Martinez. Both have 3 PA - Estrada had hitters go 0-3, Orelvis went 1-3. He was in Dunedin to start last year, then A+, then AA, AAA/majors this year. When a pitcher figures things out they can move very quickly.
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#463096) #
Great work by Estrada so far. A few days ago that would have been at least 2 and often 3 relievers used to cover those innings.
scottt - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#463097) #
Brutal pitch clock violation by Jimenez.
There's no excuse for that.
Glevin - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#463098) #
Relief pitching been amazing. Time to score.
Glevin - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#463099) #
Barger did it again. Thought after Springer got so unlucky and Jimenez and Bo had those awful abs, Jays would blow it but these Jays are built different
John Northey - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#463100) #
Wow, 7 straight, up by 3 over the Rays, Yankees losing to the Mets 11-5 right now so very likely 3 over them too. Sweet!
greenfrog - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#463101) #
Barger has turned into a really good MLB player.

Great team effort, picking up the guys who didn’t come through. Love the team-first mentality.
mathesond - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#463102) #
The radio broadcast got a quick interview with Fisher after the game. He credited the fans with energizing the team.
Hodgie - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#463103) #
Bo is too easy to pitch to. Didn’t see one strike in that final AB.
scottt - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#463104) #
Lukes gets the bunt down for a hit because Rengifo doesn't seem to know how to defend the bunt.
Which makes Jimenez's AB look even worse.
Barker said he looked like a young Jeff Blair!

The problem with Bo as cleanup/bases loaded is that he chases a lot.
You can't be chasing a foot off the plate when a walk wins the game.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#463105) #
Suddenly Bo doesn't seem to have a spot on this team for 2026.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#463106) #
Bo seems relatively easy to pitch to because you know he’s going to hack early in the count and he’s likely to chase pitches off the plate. Maybe he’s become too predictable in his approach?
uglyone - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#463107) #
Magpie - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#463108) #
They just forget how to pitch to him with runners in scoring position?
greenfrog - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#463109) #
All the commentators, from Keith Law and Ken Rosenthal all the way down to the ****kins bros, who confidently predicted a well-below-.500 season from the Blue Jays in 2025, are looking pretty bad at the moment. Most of their “Power Rankings” have had the team ranked around #16-20 (or worse) for most of the season. Now everyone is scrambling to revise their opinion of the team.
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#463110) #
We are not the most positive bunch either, greenfrog. One brief mention of Barger throwing out Trout at home. No mentions of that fantastic sliding pick, recovery and throw by Clement to get Adell. But 4 posts complaining about Bo. Wouldn't have guessed we won reading those comments.
uglyone - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#463111) #
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#463112) #
Yes I do too.
John Northey - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#463113) #
We are seeing what we need to see - so many guys who can fill in wherever needed whenever needed. Gimenez hurt? Play Schneider, then put Clement there late. Wagner hit for? Move Clement to 1B and put Jimenez in at 2B. Move Barger from RF (where he threw out a runner at home) to 3B. Lukes goes from meh in CF to solid in RF and Straw comes in for CF (wow defense). It is nuts how this team has so many parts that can shift as needed. When Varsho comes back it gets better too.

The pen has been great lately, and we might finally have that long man we've been needing in Estrada after his 4 IP 1 R, just 2 hits.

With all this good stuff going on one wonders what the team will do at the trade deadline. Looking at my article I see 2023 4 trades, 2022 3 trades, 2021 4 trades, 2020 4 trades, 2016 5 trades - clearly Atkins likes to make moves when the team is contending. 3-5 trades each time at or near the deadline. 2015 saw AA make 4 deals, 1 in 2006 (JPR), 5 in 2000 (Ash), 1 in 1999 (Ash again), 1 in 1993, 2 in '92, 2 in '91, 2 in '90, 2 in '89, 0 in '88, 3 in '87, 2 in '85 (last 8 by Gillick, 0-3 deals per deadline). Based on that you don't necessarily need to make a lot of deals to win, but some are needed and Atkins loves to do those deals, especially for relievers.
uglyone - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#463114) #
3gm lead
Glevin - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#463115) #
"With Eric Lauer as their fifth starter, and continued health from their top guys, Toronto may be in the position where it’s time for a big swing or none at all. An upgrade over Lauer might be available, but if the incoming pitcher isn’t good enough to start a playoff game or help in the playoff bullpen, will the move be worth the assets?"

In The Athletic yesterday and mirrors my own thoughts on trading. If there's an obvious upgrade, Jays should go for it but making a trade for the sake of making a trade and giving away assets for a very small upgrade just isn't worth it. Get me a late inning reliever or a top-2 starter or don't bother, I think the team is good enough.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#463116) #
Excited for Estrada to show his stuff at the big league level. Did not look out of place one bit.

Even back in 2022 in A-ball it was clear he was a future big leaguer if he could stay healthy.
Magpie - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#463118) #
We are not the most positive bunch either, greenfrog

Let me tell you about Leafs fans...
Magpie - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#463121) #
Bobby Jenks was a memorable character and a pretty good pitcher and 44 is much too young to die. But what was astounding to me was how his career ended - a botched back surgery because the operating doctor was doing two procedures at the same time. He was awarded 5.1 million in a malpractice suit, which was nice I suppose. They should have given him the whole damn hospital.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#463123) #
Most posts are positive. I count three Bo comments (in sequence) squished between a lot more posts of positivity. If you're seeing negative over positive maybe it's you.

I called the Jays and Rays stop the division beginning of the year, baby.
Michael - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#463125) #
A reminder that a team is never as good as it looks when on a winning streak and never as bad as it looks when on a losing streak. That said, this sure feels like a really good team.

Remember a number of people on the site wanted to cut Springer as being done before the season started, boy would that have been wrong.

Barger sure looks like a very good ballplayer. He has the terrific physique, and he looks like he's relishing attacking every opportunity. Like I was surprised he wasn't able to score the runs in the bottom of the 7th, but not surprised the Angels intentionally walked him. But the balls to the outfield look like he's eager to throw out the runners (and able to often do so) and the PA with two outs and runners in scoring position he's ready to win (and took an intentional walk to stop him in B7 but no stopping him B11).

The strong defense isn't new, but being able to have that while one of the best defensive players in baseball has been injured and not playing is pretty great.

And even if they but too much, when their bunts which could be sacrifices end up being bunt singles, so much the better.

And a legit multi-inning relief appearance in a close game!

There sure is a lot to like right now.
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#463126) #
You should learn how to count.There were 4 in a row under JD's picture plus another a bit earlier about his awful at bat.
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#463127) #
Also FWIW, prior to today only Will Smith (.413) had a higher batting average than Bo's .407 with runners in scoring position this year. Bo's 196 wRC+ was tied with Freddie Freeman for 5th best.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#463128) #
Yes, sorry about that. Serves me right for reading/posting on mobile while putting my girls to bed. So 4 posts about Bo and the rest mainly positive, right? Not anything like you complained.

You upset that I didn't take your internet bet/offer seriously?
hypobole - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#463129) #
I don't blame you at all for not taking the bet.
christaylor - Saturday, July 05 2025 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#463130) #
He was one of the few likeable ones on the 2011 Red Sox squad (my first summer in the greater Boston area), and when he was cut, it was about when I started rooting against the team instead of being indifferent. It turned out to be a good year to root against the nearest baseball team. I was happily at the show of a local Boston band the day it all came crashing down. If anyone is interested in the band I was watching... just released a 54-song quadruple album called Deck (52 cards + 2 public domain jokers)... music content here
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#463131) #
The brutally awful Rockies hosted the not quite as brutal White Sox. Rockies lost. They have now lost all 15 series at home this season — dropping the first two games in 14 of them.

But their attendance is middle of the pack, ahead of the MLB best Tigers. And despite the fact the Tigers have won 6 more games than the White Sox and Rockies combined, over 47000 were at Coors Field to watch these 2 teams face each other. I'm baffled.
uglyone - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#463132) #
https://youtu.be/z_fS1qUpSV0?si=Cs9EI9GId9o-LsGi



https://youtu.be/ocIkMpOtSQg?si=UFzKNJiEBB_uF2ty



https://youtu.be/uvhFA2fMP08?si=_ctLqLzRKu-RZ7nY



https://youtu.be/vD0lr6xcr6c?si=IFRDcuqQBIXISDId



https://youtu.be/KUFcpSFLm5Q?si=wMF9gW-3EP4Ixz8T
John Northey - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 01:37 AM EDT (#463133) #
Next big question is probably how do the Jays handle it as injured guys return?
  • Varsho - easy one, he is CF everyday, a few days off vs tough RHP and for rest, covered by Straw those days. This will cascade to LF/RF a bit with Straw and Lukes losing some playing time (especially Straw), odds are Leo Jiménez is sent down, if not before then
  • Garcia - he'll be back to setup, but behind Rodriguez, with Piña likely the odd man out depending how everyone pitches between now and then.
  • Schultz & Burr - probably just sent down unless someone is sucking at the time
  • Santander - tough one, he'll be playing everyday at DH/LF most likely, sharing the 2 spots with Springer, costing someone their job - Lukes or Schneider most likely. This one could be a net negative.
  • Manoah - if healthy he deserves a starting slot as he could be a Cy contender type if healthy/100%. I'd expect the rotation shifting to a 6 man rotation in that case. Scherzer is the weakest link right now, but I don't see him shifting to the pen or being released. Lauer more likely would be shifted/split starts with Scherzer as Max can't seem to go 5+.
  • Francis - last year he was untouchable, this year he hasn't been. He'd be #7 in the rotation after Manoah and the current 5 if all are healthy, thus in AAA or long relief.
Varsho is the one I want back the quickest, as that drastically improves the OF offense and defense, shifting Straw to a more appropriate role of backup/defensive replacement/platoon guy. Manoah could have a massive impact if he is back to his 2022 form as that adds the ace we want plus improves the Scherzer/Lauer slot as using the 2 of them every 5 days together could be a killer combo. Santander I want to stay off the roster unless he is 100% back to his 2024 form, otherwise he is more of a negative (poor defense, adds nothing but raw power) than a positive.
scottt - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 07:15 AM EDT (#463136) #
I don't think it's negative to point out real things.
Bo has missed a few days after tweaking his knee and might have lost his timing a bit.
Yesterday, he wasn't using his normal 2-strike toe-twist approach and kept the leg kick.
Maybe that was to make sure the runner would be able to tag on a fly.
Maybe he's been doing it for a while and I hadn't noticed.
He had his first HR on May 3.

Guys up from AAA should be able to bunt.
Leo Jimenez should be very familiar with the pitch clock by now.
The batter has to be in the box for 8 waiting for the pitch.
He was there a bit early but as the pitcher wasn't getting set he lowered the bat and touched the outside corner.
You can't do that.
That goes along with the pitcher not being allowed to get set before the hitter is in the box looking at him.

I love Barger's arm in RF.

Bref has Guerrero leading the team in position player WAR at 2.8.
Clement 2.5
Springer 1.8
Barger 1.6
Kirk 1.5
Straw 1.4
Heineman 1.3
Bichette 1.1
Gimenez 1.1
Lukes 1.0
Varsho 0.8Schneider 0.5


Glevin - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#463137) #
Santander - tough one, he'll be playing everyday at DH/LF most likely, sharing the 2 spots with Springer, costing someone their job - Lukes or Schneider most likely. This one could be a net negative."

Santander had a 128 WRC+ last year. You need to give him abs and they are there. VS LHP, tons of abs (Clement can play 2B for Jimenez, Lukes doesn't need to play, Barger can get some days off) VS RHP is a bit trickier. Lukes is an option but I think his OBP skills are great at top of lineup. But the right answer is to have Barger at 3B and sit Clement most days. He's had 216 PAs against RHP this year and has been atrocious.

I didn't realize how extreme Giminez's splits are either. 22 WRC+ against LHP and 101 VS RHP. Career is pretty close though. 103/92.Clement is 206 and 62 the other way and bigger lifetime splits 102/79.
christaylor - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#463138) #
I get it, cool content, but a little context would help.
christaylor - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#463139) #
It's a nice place to watch a ball game, and Denver is a pretty dull city.
Magpie - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#463140) #
This past week both George Springer and Chad Green have reminded us, I would hope, not to be too eager to toss people with a proven track record of success off the boat. So the eventual return of Santander doesn't seem like something to worry about. There's a pretty good chance it will help the team.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#463141) #
Definitely count me down as someone who sees Santander being a huge addition. I hope Barger can continue his production into the 2nd half but that's not a guarantee. Having Santander is great insurance in a worse case and massive influx of power in the best case scenario.

Detroit has been awful for a long time. They've lost a lot of fans over the years and need to build it back up. I think a lot of people have lost their jobs in Michigan as well. Colorado as others have mentioned doesn't have a lot to do. The park is considered a meeting place (a big brewery). It's also one of the top 3 places in the country to watch a baseball game according to me.
scottt - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#463142) #
The Orioles just acquired a 29 year old journeyman catcher from the Yankees for a PTBNL and/or cash consideration.
Alex Jackson reached at 23 and has put on negative offensive numbers almost every year since.
He's a career -1.4 bWAR after 58 games over 5 years.

The thing that struck me is that he was drafted 6th overall in 2014 by the Mariners.

scottt - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#463143) #
Estrada down. Burr activated.
Gimenez to the IL.
Will Robertson DFAed.Joey Loperfido recalled.
Gerry - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#463144) #
Estrada optioned, Gimenez to the IL.

Loperfido recalled, Barr activated.

Robertson DFA.

Tough break for Estrada.
uglyone - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#463145) #
Pretty tough to get DFA'd when you're posting a 157wrc+ but tbh it's the right move. Loperfido seems a strange callup tho - this kinda feels like last chance motel for him, or possibly hoping a little hot streak might give him a bit of deadline trade value.

scottt - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#463146) #
As long as Loperfido doesn't screw up a sac bunt.
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#463147) #
A lot of teams option players like Estrada since he would be unavailable for at least 3 or 4 days anyway and call up a fresh arm. I'm pretty sure he'll be back even if it's more up and down this year.

Loperfido can play a competent CF. I'm guessing Robertson doesn't make it through waivers, with a decent chance Jays get at least cash for him, since he still has 2 more option years.
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#463148) #
Jays and KC have 20 sac bunts each, most in baseball. The Twins have the fewest - 2. League average is a bit over 10.

League average for bunt hits is 6.6. Jays tied for 7th with 9. Tampa leads with 15, Tigers have 0, Yankees 1.

Tampa and Cinci have almost twice as many bunt hits than sacrifices; 15-8 Tampa, 13-7 Cinci.

scottt - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#463149) #
We don't need Robertson to make it through waivers as it's unlikely he'd be recalled this year. 
Is there a team chasing a wildcard spot willing to take a gamble on a left outfield bat?
If so, they might offer something as they would probably not win the waiver claim.
Fairly low odds, I guess.
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#463150) #
Jays now 15-10 in 1 run games. Astros best at 18-8. Rockies are awful, but 2 teams have worse records than their 9-15 in 1 run games. Chisox are an abysmal 6-21, and the Red Sox 9-19.

Giants at 20-16 have played the most 1 run games, O's at 11-9 the fewest.
scottt - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#463151) #
The Jays still have McAdoo (good enough arm for RF), Emmanuel Bonilla, Schreck, Bohrofen, Pinango and Dasan Brown who could debut in the outfield next year. 
Let's look a Loperfido's defense in right.
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#463152) #
Robertson's wRC+ and ISO are 5th best of the 200 players with the most PA's in the IL. Then something caught my eye.

The ISO leader in the IL not only leads the entire minors, but his .388 ISO is ahead of both Raleigh and Judge. That would be ex-Jay Carlos Perez who was traded in the J.A. Happ deal back in 2012.
mathesond - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#463153) #
Radio team is hypothesizing that Gausman is throwing a lot of fastballs in order to pitch to contact and end at bats quicker as way to go deeper and help save the bullpen.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#463154) #
Nice awesome play by Gausman.

Hyperbole let me know how many neg posts you count today. I'll bet you one of your internet fishes that you'll reply with a cheeky remark. Go.
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#463155) #
What is wrong with you? You seeming both childish and thin skinned.

Anyway here it is. I guess Bo is easy to pitch to. Only took 2 pitches for him to park it in the seats.
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#463156) #
Clutch hit off a lefty for Loperfido.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#463157) #
Going from passive aggressive to victim in as quickly as you do... if you can't take it don't dish it.
Magpie - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#463158) #
Should have bunted!
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#463159) #
Did not think they would give Schneider the green light on 3-0. Glad I was wrong.
Glevin - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#463160) #
Keep on Rolling!
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#463161) #
Jays keep kicking sand in Pythagoras' face. So much clutch hitting pitching defence.

Angels may not be good, but they were spunky.
scottt - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#463162) #
So much positive!
Bo eats a double play ball but Gausman shows him how it's done.
Then Bo goes deep.
Straw doubles, Loperfido cashes him.
Bichette walks and goes to third on a kirk single so that Schneider can cash him.

Burr gets 3Ks in his debut.
Hoffman breezes through the heart of the Angels lineup with help from Barger at third.
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#463163) #
There was also a revenge factor to this series. Almost exactly 2 months ago on May 7th, Soler hit a bases loaded double off Hoffman in the bottom of the 9th, turning a 4-2 lead into a 5-4 loss. That dropped the Jays to a season worst 4 games under .500 at 16-20.

Since then the Jays are 36-18, a 108 win pace.
scottt - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#463164) #
Speaking of revenge factor, Cleveland hasn't won since they beaned Guerrero.
It looks like they'll be selling in 2 weeks.
John Northey - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#463165) #
Fun being up 3 on July 6th. Past years in first after July 1st...
  • 2016: peak lead of 2 games, Aug 28-31st
  • 2015: 6 game lead, Sept 30, Oct 3, 4.
  • 2000: 2 game lead, July 1st
  • 1993: 8 game lead, Sept 30th
  • 1992: 5 game lead, July 16, 23, Sept 13, 19
  • 1991: 8 game lead, July 13, 15
  • 1990: 1 1/2 game lead, Sept 24, 25
  • 1989: 3 game lead, Sept 30
  • 1987: 3 1/2 game lead, Sept 26 (yeah, it was painful)
  • 1985: 9 1/2 game lead, Aug 2,3,4
  • 1983: 3 game lead, July 9,10,11,12,16
Jays made the playoffs in '16, '15, '93, '92, '91, '89, '85 and blew it in '00, '90, '87 (ouch), '83 (no one expected them to win that year).

So a 3 game lead on July 6th is rare for the Jays. Lets enjoy.
scottt - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#463166) #
I like how the dome was closed today because of the heat against a HR heavy opponent.
hypobole - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#463167) #
Nats fired Mike Rizzo and Dave Martinez. I know little of their internal workings, but Rizzo seems to have done a horrific job finding talent outside of that fantastic Soto trade.

Baseball Reference Team WAR, hitters plus pitchers: 10.8.
Woods + Abrams + Gore WAR: 10.8

In other word everyone else on the team is a combined 0.0 WAR - replacement level.

Magpie - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#463168) #
I thought I had a cool trivia question - which Blue Jay has the most career Sac Hits - and then I realized the answer was obvious.
John Northey - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#463169) #
I'm guessing Alfredo Griffin.
uglyone - Sunday, July 06 2025 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#463170) #
Tony
hypobole - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#463171) #
It would have to be a combination of games played/couldn't hit a lick, so I would guess John got it.
uglyone - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#463172) #
Gausman picking up Bo after the error with the massive bases loaded DP and then Bo immediately picking up Gausman with a titanic game tying blast was just chef's kiss amazing.
pooks137 - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#463174) #
I thought I had a cool trivia question - which Blue Jay has the most career Sac Hits - and then I realized the answer was obvious.

It takes 6 career Sac Bunts to make the Jays All Time Top 60.

Three current Jays on the roster currently qualify.

hypobole - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#463176) #
Magpie noted more and more games are being played before the All Star break, but the 52 wins so far are only 1 back of the club record 53 before the break.

1985 53-35 .602 Win%
1992 53-34 .609 Win%

Even if this team wins all six, the 1992 Win% would still be best. However, a sweep in Chicago will tie the franchise record of 11 wins in a row.
hypobole - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 01:39 AM EDT (#463177) #
Almost missed this, but a follow-up interview with Max Scherzer on conviction, max effort and more with a link to his original interview. Plus further down, an interview with Addison on what's changed to drive his current success.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-max-scherzer-answers-the-followup-question/
hypobole - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 02:04 AM EDT (#463178) #
Link didn't work. Here is Scherzer's original interview.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-max-scherzer-on-the-importance-of-conviction/
Magpie - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#463179) #
I was actually thinking most sac hits from the current roster. Of course it’s Mad Max.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#463180) #
I think Scherzer has been a great influence on the team. The players all seem to have to have confidence in themselves and each other, something I didn't see the past few years. It's a great feeling to look at the MLB standings and see the Jays in first place with the damn Yankees 3 games behind!
dalimon5 - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#463183) #
I couldn't agree more. Seems like Springer was the main guy doing that leadership thing the past few years but wasn't performing. His bounce back combined with Scherzer's Hall of Fame pedigree must be transformational for many of the players on the team.
Mike Green - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#463184) #
It's a lot of fun watching the Blue Jays win with Cardinal baseball.

The power sources on the club have been a surprise. That would be Springer and Barger. I was wrong about both. Springer's adaptation to aging-embracing the role of "offensive player" has been a pleasure. And Barger's development has taken a leap forward- that was the story of his minor league career, leaps and plateaus. John Schneider deserves a share of the credit for helping these good news stories along.

The cliche that baseball is a team game happens to be true. This season so far is a nice example.
uglyone - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#463185) #
Plausible Best Lineup, using...



This Year's Stats Only:

1. DH Springer 335pa, .374obp, 148wrc+
2. RF Barger 244pa, .329obp, 130wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 388pa, .381obp, 132wrc+
4. C Alejandro 298pa, .359obp, 118wrc+
5. CF Varsho 100pa, .240obp, 104wrc+
6. SS Bichette 394pa, .310obp, 105wrc+
7. LF Lukes 194pa, .268obp, 113wrc+
8. 3B Clement 320pa, .339obp, 106wrc+
9. 2B Gimenez 238pa, .300obp, 79wrc+

B. UT Santander 209pa, .273obp, 63wrc+
B. OF Straw 173pa, .287obp, 71wrc+
B. IF Schneider 84pa, .357obp, 115wrc+
B. C Heineman 88pa, .384obp, 143wrc+

X. UT Roden 111pa, .279obp, 66wrc+
X. OF Clase 112pa, .288obp, 69wrc+
X. IF Wagner 87pa, .302obp, 64wrc+
X. C Sanchez 11pa, .182obp, 18wrc+



...Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

1. DH Springer 613pa, .341obp, 125wrc+
2. 3B Barger 403pa, .308obp, 116wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 702pa, .402obp, 160wrc+
4. C Alejandro 521pa, .353obp, 116wrc+
5. RF Santander 524pa, .302obp, 106wrc+
6. CF Varsho 309pa, .286obp, 105wrc+
7. SS Bichette 417pa, .307obp, 102wrc+
8. 2B Clement 602pa, .318obp, 102wrc+
9. LF Lukes 285pa, .369obp, 119wrc+

B. UT Wagner 169pa, .327obp, 99wrc+
B. OF Straw 177pa, .287obp, 70wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 522pa, .293obp, 78wrc+
B. C Heineman 101pa, .374obp, 130wrc+

X. UT Schneider 252pa, .278obp, 66wrc+
X. OF Clase 143pa, .317obp, 90wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 215pa, .322obp, 96wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 59pa, .305obp, 125wrc+



....Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections:

1. DH Springer 277pa, .333obp, 114wrc+
2. SS Bichette 283pa, .324obp, 113wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 302pa, .373obp, 140wrc+
4. C Alejandro 220pa, .352obp, 115wrc+
5. RF Santander 162pa, .312obp, 112wrc+
6. 3B Barger 224pa, .315obp, 107wrc+
7. CF Varsho 224pa, .292obp, 100wrc+
8. LF Lukes 143pa, .346obp, 110wrc+
9. 2B Gimenez 246pa, .321obp, 100wrc+

B. UT Wagner 115pa, .344obp, 107wrc+
B. OF Schneider 68pa, .323obp, 104wrc+
B. IF Clement 162pa, .315obp, 100wrc+
B. C Heineman 74pa, .321obp, 89wrc+

X. UT Roden 53pa, .336obp, 106wrc+
X. OF Straw 68pa, .301obp, 74wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 16pa, .334obp, 101wrc+
X. C Bethancour 0pa, .277obp, 91wrc+
scottt - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#463187) #
Schneider's name used to come up in the list of managers most likely to be fired before the All-Stars break.
Instead, the Nats have dumped Dave Martinez along with the team president, Mike Rizzo.
These guys were there when they won the World Series.

The roster is currently filled up with aging vets on 1-year contract.
The biggest salary expense is the 35M Stephen Strasburg will collect this year and next.
Nat Lowe 10.3M, one arb year remaining.
Soroka 9M, free agent.
Trevor Williams 7M, 1 year left.
Keibert Ruiz 5.3M, signed until 2031.
Josh Bell 6M, free agent.
Kyle Finnegan 6M, free agent. 
Amed Rosario 2M, free agent.
Paul DeJong 1M, free agent. 

C.J. Abrams, James Wood and Mackenzie Gore are looking good, but they all came up in the Soto trade.
Where's the guys they drafted?
Jake Irvin , 4th round in 2018 is a 4th or 5th starter. Nobody from 2019 or 2020. Jacob Young an outfielder drafted in the 7th round in 2021 has debuted in 2023, but he's got an OPS of .597 this year which is only marginally worse than what he showed before.  
Dylan Crews whom they drafted second overall in 2023 debuted last year but has a career .629 OPS and is hitting .196 this year. 
 

scottt - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#463188) #
BA ranks the Nats farm system 14th.
MLB pipeline, 10th.
Fangraphs, 14th.The Athletic has them at 11th.
hypobole - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#463189) #
I've never bothered to check Win Probability at FG until 92-93 brought it up a while back. One stat that caught my interest is Shutdowns/Meltdowns for relievers.

Jays 95 Shutdowns - 6th most.
Jays 44 Meltdowns - tied for 7th fewest.

Josh Hader is an incredible 25-0. Matt Brash 14-0 the only other with at least 10 SD's 0 MD's.

Yariel is 18-1. Only one other pitcher has at least 10 SD's and only 1 MD.

I knew Yariel has pitched well, but didn't realise just how well.
pooks137 - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#463190) #
I've never bothered to check Win Probability at FG

One of the Box' sister sites, www.bluebirdbanter.com, includes WPA at the bottom of each of their game recaps.

They assign Jays of the Day and ?scapegoats with +.100 or -.100 thresholds respectively.

It's interesting to watch whole games live, then returning to skim the recaps to see how WPA assigns value after the fact.

For example, on Sat Braydon Fisher's two innings of extra innings shutout ball was deemed much more valuable by WPA than either Addison Barger's walkoff hit or Lazaro Estrada's 4 innings of 1 run ball in relief.

hypobole - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#463191) #
Yeah, i used to check BBB all the time and still do occasionally. And their use of WPA is part of the reason I never found it worth checking, because I often found it flawed.
Magpie - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#463192) #
[Springer's] bounce back combined with Scherzer's Hall of Fame pedigree must be transformational

I don't disagree, but the other guy is Guerrero. He's been here so long, and he's been The Man in the lineup for so long, that we kind of forgot that he was still a boy much of the time, the youngest one in the room. He's not a boy anymore. He has a much better grasp of what he can and can't do on the field, and what he means to the club. (This actually began to develop last year, truth be told.)
Jonny German - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#463193) #
I am scratching my head at the term “sister site”.
Magpie - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#463194) #
We're an only child?

Yes. But what a strange sentence to have written. I'm rather proud.
pooks137 - Monday, July 07 2025 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#463197) #
I don't think there's any formal or informal association between the Box and Bluebirdbanter. But the Jays Vox affiliate site is one of the few (only? ) remaining site from the late aughts era of forum-based Jays discussion from the old Internet before Twitter and Reddit dominance.

The Box predates it by a good 5-8 years. But BBB outlasted Drunk Jays Fans, Ghostrunner on First, all of the various WordPress and Blogspot Jays content, BlueJayWay.ca,Getting Blanked & Drunk Jays Fans at The Score, AndrewStoeten.com, Blue Jays Nation (which still exists but seems very AI driven present day), Baseball Think Factory (which was general baseball, but still a very savvy, SABR old head community), etc.

Other than the Jays subreddit, which is thriving but still steeped in Reddit culture, there seems to be very few independent, forum-based Jays communities left.

I know there's a spiritual successor to Andrew Stoeten's old DJF community that splintered off years ago when the Blue Jays Nation boards had a terrible UI and were abandoned called Jays In the House. But their community is very insular and close-knit, focused a lot more on in-jokes and potpourri rather than baseball purist discussion.
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