Welcome to quaint, old Fenway Park.
Twelve days ago, the Red Sox had to be feeling pretty good about things. They'd just finished sweeping the Damn Yankees, something always deeply satisfying to folks in New England. They'd got back above .500 and were riding a five game winning streak as they prepared for a nine game road trip.
They'd already boarded the bus to the airport when they - and the rest of us - learned that Rafael Devers, merely the guy that the lineup had been built around, had been traded, and for what looked like a very marginal return. That, I promise you, is a kick n the head for any team. The Sox did keep winning for a while, taking three of their first four west coast games. But they've since dropped their last five games, and their season has a real chance to go swirling down the drain.
Let's see if the Blue Jays can help them on their Journey to the Bottom. The Jays will conclude the first half of the schedule tonight, and depending on how this evening's game goes, they'll be on pace for 86 wins. Or 88. Which is about what most people were expecting, as I recall.
It's how they got there that's somewhat more interesting. Because it certainly had very little to do with any of Ross Atkins' big, splashy off-season moves - Max Scherzer, Anthony Santander, and Andres Gimenez have been either injured, underwhelming, or both. I realize Santander was, to a large extent, replacing Davis Schneider in the lineup, so it's not like much was lost. It's still been disappointing. There is, of course, still half a season remaining for that part of the story to change.
But a great many of Atkins' smaller moves, that generally went completely under the radar at the time, have worked out better than anyone could have dreamed - getting Brendon Little in a straight cash deal, signing Eric Lauer off the refuse pile after he's been released by the Astros. Nathan Lukes was a six year minor leaguer who'd just hit .219/.294/.319 in AAA at age 24. Not to mention signing Ernie Clement after he'd been released by the Athletics. I would also suggest that Myles Straw has been far more useful than anyone could have dreamed, about as useful as a guy who really can't hit could possibly be. The dumpster diving has gone well, although I don't know if that describes Lauer - he was a quality starting pitcher on a contending team for a couple of years. He's someone recovering his form rather than a guy doing something completely unforeseeable.
But a key thing that's gone right was, I would suggest, quite easy to foresee. After all, I foresaw it, which suggests that it was probably Pretty Bleeding Obvious. The main thing that went wrong with the 2024 Blue Jays was the horrible, awful, no-good bullpen - something that should always be easy to fix, as useful relief pitchers grow on trees - and the surprising under-performance of three key hitters (Bichette, Springer, Kirk). Two of those three (Bichette and Springer) I was pretty confident would bounce back smartly. And so they have. Kirk's bat bouncing back to life as well has been a welcome bonus.
Matchups
Fri 27 June - Berrios (3-3, 3.51) vs Bello (3-2, 3.31)
Sat 28 June - Bassitt (7-3, 3.61) vs Giolito (3-1, 4.53)
Sun 29 June - Lauer (4-1, 2.21) vs Buehler (5-5, 6.29)
Twelve days ago, the Red Sox had to be feeling pretty good about things. They'd just finished sweeping the Damn Yankees, something always deeply satisfying to folks in New England. They'd got back above .500 and were riding a five game winning streak as they prepared for a nine game road trip.
They'd already boarded the bus to the airport when they - and the rest of us - learned that Rafael Devers, merely the guy that the lineup had been built around, had been traded, and for what looked like a very marginal return. That, I promise you, is a kick n the head for any team. The Sox did keep winning for a while, taking three of their first four west coast games. But they've since dropped their last five games, and their season has a real chance to go swirling down the drain.
Let's see if the Blue Jays can help them on their Journey to the Bottom. The Jays will conclude the first half of the schedule tonight, and depending on how this evening's game goes, they'll be on pace for 86 wins. Or 88. Which is about what most people were expecting, as I recall.
It's how they got there that's somewhat more interesting. Because it certainly had very little to do with any of Ross Atkins' big, splashy off-season moves - Max Scherzer, Anthony Santander, and Andres Gimenez have been either injured, underwhelming, or both. I realize Santander was, to a large extent, replacing Davis Schneider in the lineup, so it's not like much was lost. It's still been disappointing. There is, of course, still half a season remaining for that part of the story to change.
But a great many of Atkins' smaller moves, that generally went completely under the radar at the time, have worked out better than anyone could have dreamed - getting Brendon Little in a straight cash deal, signing Eric Lauer off the refuse pile after he's been released by the Astros. Nathan Lukes was a six year minor leaguer who'd just hit .219/.294/.319 in AAA at age 24. Not to mention signing Ernie Clement after he'd been released by the Athletics. I would also suggest that Myles Straw has been far more useful than anyone could have dreamed, about as useful as a guy who really can't hit could possibly be. The dumpster diving has gone well, although I don't know if that describes Lauer - he was a quality starting pitcher on a contending team for a couple of years. He's someone recovering his form rather than a guy doing something completely unforeseeable.
But a key thing that's gone right was, I would suggest, quite easy to foresee. After all, I foresaw it, which suggests that it was probably Pretty Bleeding Obvious. The main thing that went wrong with the 2024 Blue Jays was the horrible, awful, no-good bullpen - something that should always be easy to fix, as useful relief pitchers grow on trees - and the surprising under-performance of three key hitters (Bichette, Springer, Kirk). Two of those three (Bichette and Springer) I was pretty confident would bounce back smartly. And so they have. Kirk's bat bouncing back to life as well has been a welcome bonus.
And I would like to give some flowers to the manager. Someone should, and no one else will. Criticism of Schneider - like criticism of all managers - tends to happen on a micro level, on specific bits of game management (usually involving the bullpen.) Moves that didn't work - well, that's inevitable. It's the moves that don't seem to make sense, on any level that we can fathom, that tend to bother people most. But still, it's never interested me that much. For one thing, it's true of all managers. Trust me. All of them. While I may not know why Schneider's doing what he's doing, I do know what I don't know. Which probably amounts to at least half of what any decision of his is based on. No manager is going to share all of the factors that go into their decision-making with the general public. So, if I can restrain myself (alas, it's not always possible) I'd rather not even go there. I don't know which guys are nursing a hangover.
But on a macro level - well, this team had a brutal early schedule and basically didn't hit any home runs for the first month of the season. And it turned out they had just three competent starting pitchers. They could have easily been buried by mid-May. They weren't. They kept playing hard, and competing, and here they are. The manager should get some credit for that.
One more thing. The Toronto Blue Jays are not exactly famous for playing smart, mistake-free baseball. Now, nobody's perfect and Jonatan Clase is doing his best to keep the old ways alive, but it's been a while since I've seen a Jays team that screwed up less often than this group. We probably have to go back to the veteran laden teams of ten years ago. They don't beat themselves as often as they used to. Maybe the manager should get some credit for that, too.
We can go into the second half cautiously optimistic. Santander and Gimenez are likely to clear the Mendoza Line at some point. Bichette and Guerrero have been solid, but neither has exactly been hot, and both are more than capable of carrying the offense all by themselves. They've done it before. And hey, Alek Manoah reportedly hit 95 in his last bullpen session (I know, the velocity returns before the command does.)
Matchups
Fri 27 June - Berrios (3-3, 3.51) vs Bello (3-2, 3.31)
Sat 28 June - Bassitt (7-3, 3.61) vs Giolito (3-1, 4.53)
Sun 29 June - Lauer (4-1, 2.21) vs Buehler (5-5, 6.29)
