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OK, I'll avoid more puns. 7 years $210 mil with a chunk deferred.

So who is Dylan Cease? The top starter on the market according to most (MLBTR had him 3rd overall, #1 for pitchers; ESPN has him 6th overall, 3rd among pitchers behind Valdez & Imai as examples). He is entering his age 30 season.
  • 32+ starts a year every year from 2021 to 2025, but 165 2/3 to 189 1/3 IP - his 3 CG over that stretch were all shutouts.
  • FIP over 2021-now has been between 3.10 and 3.72, very consistent, but ERA 2.20 to 4.58.
  • Lifetime BABIP is .297 including a 323 figure last year.
  • K% ranged from 27.3 to 31.9%, BB% 8.5% to 10.4%
  • ERA has been worse than xERA every year from 2021-2025 except in 2022 when he had that 2.20 ERA
  • Gives up a lot of fly balls - 39.1%-44.3% vs ground balls 33.3% to 39.8% - I suspect he'll fall in love with Varsho (and Straw) very quickly.
  • Fastball velocity last year was 97.1 - his highest since 2020
  • FG has his value as $27.2 mil last year, $38 mil in '24.
  • 4 times has reached the post season, twice each with ChiSox and SD - 5 games, 4 starts, 11 1/3 IP 7 BB 13 SO - not enough to really judge much.
So that gives a partial picture. Bottom line the Jays got what they needed most - a solid #1 pitcher for 2026 and beyond. In 2026 the rotation will be Cease-Gausman-Bieber-Yesavage-Berrios unless a trade happens. A very good, and very expensive, rotation. There should be enough cash in the Rogers ledgers left to sign a hitter and/or a closer.
Cease the worries - Jays Sign Top Starting Pitcher | 8 comments | Create New Account
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Marc Hulet - Wednesday, November 26 2025 @ 07:55 PM EST (#473451) #
Cease was the guy I thought they really needed - established, durable, strong fastball... all stuff you need in the AL East. Takes some pressure off of Yesavage (and Tiedemann).

Now get another strong offensive player, a little bullpen help and add some depth around the edges.

I've like Rodolfo Castro for a while, too. Nice AAA/bench depth.
Michael - Wednesday, November 26 2025 @ 08:08 PM EST (#473453) #
Signing pitchers to long term deals always feels extra risky because of pitchers health but:

1. This pitcher has a history of being very durable.
2. This pitcher is a high quality pitcher.
3. Our front office has been better than average at FA signings.

Plus, the Jays are continuing to establish themselves as a strong team for people to play for. Maybe even trying to push past the Yankees as the top non-Dodgers super team?
uglyone - Wednesday, November 26 2025 @ 08:09 PM EST (#473454) #
The 1 SP I wanted at the price i expected.

3 thumbs up.

Now sign Bo and an RP.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 26 2025 @ 08:12 PM EST (#473455) #
Agreed Marc. Just read through the other thread to catch up on what everyone is saying. See if my thoughts were way off or matching up with the group think. 7 years I'll agree is more than ideal (especially for a pitcher) but the Jays seem to do a good job figuring out which starters will last - see Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios (so far). Everyone accepted day one that Ryu would miss a year at some point of his deal but the Jays were bottom dwellers at the time and had to make some kind of splash however they could and without him they don't make the 2020 playoffs, and probably not the '23 playoffs either (mid-season return to the majors just as Manoah went down).

This means for 2027 we have Cease-Yesavage-and 3 ? probably Tiedemann, Stanifer, King - if no one else is signed (very unlikely) - more likely Gausman resigned for 2-3 years, maybe someone else as well so the 3 kids have 1 slot while hoping Yesavage can hold down a slot.

Next shoe to drop is probably a hitter - Bo, Tucker, Bregman - one of those 3 is my prediction. Zero interest in sub top 10 guys as we have lots of depth already and guys who can hit for a 100-110 wRC+ as is, no need to spend a lot getting another one. The pen is a whole other ballgame, I have no idea what to expect beyond 1-2 high end guys and maybe 1-2 mid-to-low end guys. Utility players are being covered nicely with AAA signings imo.
soupman - Wednesday, November 26 2025 @ 08:18 PM EST (#473456) #
The Wheeler deal is an interesting comp.

I like that he has proven upside of an ace. I think even Imai probably doesn’t offer that right now. I don’t like that the limiting factor is command and that it’s been so fleeting and that he’s had bad numbers in SanDiego which I imagine is still a pitchers park.

I like this more than had they signed Tucker at the numbers being suggested. Is that the Jays out of the Tucker running? I assume so.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, November 26 2025 @ 08:19 PM EST (#473457) #
It's a nice get. Shapiro and Atkins obviously value durability in pitchers.

Sign Bichette or Tucker, a really good reliever and that's the heavy lifting done.
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 26 2025 @ 08:19 PM EST (#473458) #
I would rather see money spent on Cease + one of Tucker/Bo/Bregman/Marte than a bunch of money spent on a reliever or two.
uglyone - Wednesday, November 26 2025 @ 08:21 PM EST (#473459) #
Deferrals bring it down to $26m per year.
Cease the worries - Jays Sign Top Starting Pitcher | 8 comments | Create New Account
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