Cease was the guy I thought they really needed - established, durable, strong fastball... all stuff you need in the AL East. Takes some pressure off of Yesavage (and Tiedemann).

Now get another strong offensive player, a little bullpen help and add some depth around the edges.

I've like Rodolfo Castro for a while, too. Nice AAA/bench depth.

Signing pitchers to long term deals always feels extra risky because of pitchers health but:

1. This pitcher has a history of being very durable.
2. This pitcher is a high quality pitcher.
3. Our front office has been better than average at FA signings.

Plus, the Jays are continuing to establish themselves as a strong team for people to play for. Maybe even trying to push past the Yankees as the top non-Dodgers super team?

The 1 SP I wanted at the price i expected.

3 thumbs up.

Now sign Bo and an RP.

Agreed Marc. Just read through the other thread to catch up on what everyone is saying. See if my thoughts were way off or matching up with the group think. 7 years I'll agree is more than ideal (especially for a pitcher) but the Jays seem to do a good job figuring out which starters will last - see Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios (so far). Everyone accepted day one that Ryu would miss a year at some point of his deal but the Jays were bottom dwellers at the time and had to make some kind of splash however they could and without him they don't make the 2020 playoffs, and probably not the '23 playoffs either (mid-season return to the majors just as Manoah went down).

This means for 2027 we have Cease-Yesavage-and 3 ? probably Tiedemann, Stanifer, King - if no one else is signed (very unlikely) - more likely Gausman resigned for 2-3 years, maybe someone else as well so the 3 kids have 1 slot while hoping Yesavage can hold down a slot.

Next shoe to drop is probably a hitter - Bo, Tucker, Bregman - one of those 3 is my prediction. Zero interest in sub top 10 guys as we have lots of depth already and guys who can hit for a 100-110 wRC+ as is, no need to spend a lot getting another one. The pen is a whole other ballgame, I have no idea what to expect beyond 1-2 high end guys and maybe 1-2 mid-to-low end guys. Utility players are being covered nicely with AAA signings imo.

The Wheeler deal is an interesting comp.

I like that he has proven upside of an ace. I think even Imai probably doesn’t offer that right now. I don’t like that the limiting factor is command and that it’s been so fleeting and that he’s had bad numbers in SanDiego which I imagine is still a pitchers park.

I like this more than had they signed Tucker at the numbers being suggested. Is that the Jays out of the Tucker running? I assume so.

It's a nice get. Shapiro and Atkins obviously value durability in pitchers.

Sign Bichette or Tucker, a really good reliever and that's the heavy lifting done.

I would rather see money spent on Cease + one of Tucker/Bo/Bregman/Marte than a bunch of money spent on a reliever or two.

Deferrals bring it down to $26m per year.

Source?

I like this signing the more the ink settles. Wish Bieber was signed long term as well but that's a pipe dream now that we see what the SP market will be looking like. I wonder how high Skubal will go for next off season.

What are the numbers being suggested for Tucker?

I'm worried about the back-end for usual reasons + the known covid case. considering general lack of concern around the world, and 40% asymptomatic cases, & every case 10-20% chance of long covid with worst case bed-ridden or heart-attack/stroke (this is a concern for everybody, but just talking fave team economics...) Hopefully it turns out or theres some breakthrough in the world that money can buy. 

Klaw is "lukewarm" (but not "down") on the signing. He says that Cease's production "may not be what the Jays are hoping to get. He’s underperformed his peripherals for much of his career, meaning that his ERAs have been higher than you would expect based on some of his other metrics like his strikeout and walk rates."

He adds that "Cease is consistently worse pitching from the stretch, which means hitters perform better against him with men on base" and that he has had a "small but persistent platoon split."

Let's see if Walker can help him elevate his game, as he (Walker) has done with other SPs.

Eh Keith is off. Last 5yrs it's 90era- 80fip- 88xfip-.

Slightly behind his peripherals but likely cuz the defense behind him stunk.

I think it's easy to see how (theoretically) a new team could help Cease find a new level. He's thrown almost exclusively fastball slider (around 90% of pitches). If he could get a new pitch, say a splitter, or improve his change up and throw it more, it could add new element to his game.

Mitch Bannon
@MitchBannon
·
1h
The deferrals are expected to reduce the present value AAV of the deal to around 26 million per year, per source.

Still the largest pitching contract in #BlueJays history

Cease is going from a bad defense behind him to an elite one, and while the ABS will hurt some of Kirk's framing value, it will still exist to some degree. Could definitely see Cease having another gear in him.

Echoing uglyone’s post, MLBTR says “deferrals will drop the average annual value for luxury tax purposes to roughly $26MM, reports Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. That’d put the ‘true’ value of the guarantee closer to $182MM.”

Starting the off-season by adding Bieber and Cease to the rotation at their current AAVs is pretty great. And if Cease’s contract is a bit on the long side, Bieber’s low-risk, one-year contract offsets that somewhat.

I’d rather $26m per year than $18-20m per year on a Bassitt type.

So, given the $42 mil I figured they had left pre-Cease, they have $16 mil left if they just want to match last years payroll. If they are willing to go higher (which they should be) then they can add Bo or Tucker - can't see any way they add both, cool as that would be (Clement platooning at 3B with Barger then - all pitchers petrified to face the Jays). Maybe add that closer they'd like, but that'll be $16-$20 mil for the best ones or $9-12 mil for solid options with warts (estimates are Diaz 4/$82, Williams 4/$68, Suarez 3/$48 at the top end, then Helsley 2/$24, Fairbanks 2/$18 and others).

This is so much more fun than the 1996-2013 era or the 2017-2019 time frame.

I think this is a great signing. The Jay's front office identified the starting rotation as the biggest need and signed the best available free agent relatively early in the offseason. It's crazy to think last season's opening day pitcher, Berrios, is now arguably the number 5 in the rotation.

Speaking of Berrios, would it be a bad idea to trade him for a solid relief pitcher, pencil Eric Lauer for the 5th spot and try to sign Bo and Tucker?

I'm sure Jays would love to trade Berrios but can't imagine they'd be able to move him unless they took on another big salary or paid down half his salary.

Berrios is only movable in a bad contract swap. His player options for 2027 and 2028 are only $2M less than the deferred AAV that Cease just got. No one is touching that contract unless they are off loading a similarly poor investment. Maybe there is a swap available similar to Semien for Nimmo. Just have to find a team with an equally bad contract. Something like Berrios for Luis Severino would be great but the Jays would probably have to pay down the 2028 money that Berrios is owed. I'd still do something like that if it were possible.

The fact that the Jays got this done so early is fascinating. Boras guys usually wait out the market. To get this deal done before December (combined with Bieber coming back) sets the Jays up perfectly for the rest of the winter. It's just a matter of how much money they have left to spend.

The Jays went 20-11 when Berrios started last year.
If healthy, he throws about 190 innings.
Cease is a notorious 5 inning pitcher.
Yesavage will be limited to maybe 160 innings.
Bieber might need a bit of load management.

What they probably need is more multi-inning relief.

Cease was expected to sign with Boston or Baltimore but somee teams were apparently spooked by his ERA.

He usually does quite well with lower BABIP. but he has issues pitching with runners on base. It's going to be interesting to watch.

He will replace Gausman going forward.

The Jays will lose 2 draft picks and some international money. They will have to manage the farm carefully.

Apparently Ross Atkins tried to trade for Cease at the deadline and multiple other times. Perhaps Cease was aware of this and decided he wanted to sign with Toronto. It's also been said that Cease "rolls out of bed and pitches," but he concedes that he is ready to tinker and improve his mechanics and pitches to get to the next level in which case the Blue Jays also appear as an attractive destination.

I think Boston went for Gray and Cease then decided Blue Jays.

Trading Berrios is unlikely to make sense because he's a decent pitcher and fine as the #4/5 guy. What are you going to trade him for? Javy Baez? I think it will be very interesting to see how Jays handle rotation next year. Yesavage will be going into first year, Bieber coming back from TJ still, Gausman better with more rest, etc...What Dodgers did last year makes a lot of sense if you have rotation depth. Make sure your best starters aren't overworked and are fresh for playoff push and playoffs. AL East is tough but I do think the Jays can be careful, using off-days to give guys rests, skipping a turn if needed, using IL liberally, etc...

they may want to move Berrios just based on his behaviour last year. you'd with his track record he might look attractive if the jays ate something like $10m per year of his deal, especially for a team that has a hard time signing free agents.

But even if they want to move him you'd think maybe now might be the wrong time - maybe a good start and he's a bit easier to move midseason.

Berrios does have an opt out after 2026. What are the chances he thinks it makes any sense to walk away from a 2x$24.7m deal heading into his age 33 season?

By all accounts Berrios is a fantastic teammate in the clubhouse. He didn't appear in some camera cutaways during the World Series...is that the extent of the "behaviour" issue you're referring to? Only other "negative" I heard about was that Berrios told the team he wasn't happy about being moved out of the rotation. To me it's no different than Bo being moved down in the line up or Vlad vocalizing he doesn't want to hit 2nd...

yeah I was under the impression he pretty much left the team after being cut from the playoffs roster, unlike Scherzer and Bassitt who showed up enthusiastically despite also being cut.

isn't that what happened?

I believe Atkins commented on Berrios recently, stating that he (Berrios) needed to be with his family, and that is where he should have been. I'll try to find the quote, but it was purposefully cryptic.

Berrios only one of the three injured. Could have gone home or could have been in Dunedin having medical staff checking out elbow

Rob Longley from the Toronto Sun had the quote re: Berrios' absence, in his recap of the season-ending press conference - I try not to drive traffic to that rag. I must have read the quote somewhere else; it might have been in Stoten's recap.

"Nothing to see here, according to general manager Ross Atkins.

“He just had to be with his family,” Atkins said at the season ending press conference this past week at the Rogers Centre. “Everything’s fine.”

Without getting into details, Atkins left it at that. Essentially it’s the players choice whether to be with the team or not when on the injured list. Players such as starting pitcher Bowden Francis, reliever Yimi Garcia and DH Anthony Santander were all with the team throughout the playoff run, for example."

https://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/where-was-jose-berrios-and-whats-next-for-blue-jays-starter

""Nothing to see here, according to general manager Ross Atkins."

Maybe but I can't imagine a scenario where he'd say anything else either.

I think the Blue Jays will just carry on and see how things go with Berrios in 2026. They probably can’t trade him because of the opt-out clause. The acquiring team would bear all the risk of Berrios getting hurt or suffering a performance decline in 2026, and of him then opting in for 2027-2028. And if Berrios had a great 2026 season, he might then opt out (to the detriment of the acquiring team).

Keith Law has dissed the Cease signing, saying he had Cease ranked third behind Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez, and that " the Sonny Gray trade looks even smarter than it did a day ago."

We'll see, Keith, we'll see.

That guy's got so much egg on his face at this point when it comes to prospects. Irrational takes that merit reposts but nobody cares enough to revisit in time. He knows that comment will get enough attention to get his name trending in Blue Jays circles but doesn't have enough merit for anyone to fact check him down the road. Keith Law is a nothingburger.

When it comes to opinions from media I tend to take them with big grains of salt. Lots of need for clicks nowadays so having a contrarian position is valuable. Being smart, thoughtful, and providing lots of information isn't anymore thus why I spend so much time (too much perhaps) here.

The question on Berrios is the 2 option years and if he will be worth them. Right now he is an inning eater - a guy who you should expect 170+ innings from (short last year due to Jays pulling him late in the season from the rotation) with a 100-120 ERA+. For most teams/situations that is a solid 2-4 starter, but for the 2026 Jays that'll be good for #5. In truth the Jays might need those innings so holding him makes some sense. Same with Lauer in the pen. The more I look at it the more logic in keeping a couple of inning eaters around is (one for rotation, one or two for pen). Lauer is a nice #6/long man, Fisher/Nance/Rodriguez all can go 2+ IP when needed as well. Leaving 4 slots for 1 inning guys - Hoffman-Garcia-Little-Varland right now. Fisher has all 3 options still so he is the one most in danger of becoming a yo-yo, Little has 1, Varland 1, and Yesavage 3 - none of them are close to the magic 5 year mark where players can refuse assignments to the minors while still being paid their full ML salary (ie: where their options are invalidated). Fluharty-Bruihl-Schultz are on the 40 man with Bruihl having 0 options left (make team or be released basically) the other 2 have 2 options each.

So for 2026 the Jays need to sign a few decent AAA relievers who they can bounce up and down, trade away 1 or 2 who are likely to make the team (Nance, Rodriguez both might have some value to another club but not enough to get anything of consequence) to free up space to add another solid 1 inning guy, and/or open a slot for option guys to bounce up and down.

Cease Framber Suarez Gray all do project similarly this year, but Cease is the youngest, by far the hardest thrower, and by far the most Ks, and the most durable. That gives him a pretty significant edge over the others.

Cease also has that big upside if Walker can help him refine his game. If he was coming off an 18-win, 2.50 ERA season in 2025, his FA price would have been a lot higher. So you could argue this is a bit of a buy-low move, if you believe in the pitcher (the way the Blue Jays believed in Gausman when they signed him).

I think the best comparable when you consider the full picture, from what I'm reading is Robbie Ray.

Clearly the Jays have really liked the player, and he does fit with the type of guy the Jays have consistently paid for (track record of health). Feels like a guy who could potentially even improve.

I also wonder how much the absolute constant trade speculation/discussion around him the last couple years has impacted performance. Sometimes stability adds a lot. Also seems to be joining a good clubhouse with some serious vibes, or so I hear...friendship has some power.

Guy apparently is also a hobby honey-farmer, and brings honey to all his teammates. Will fit right in with the group.

Gotta think they'd at least explore the market for Berrios at this point. Berrios for an OF bat on a mediocre contract would seem to make sense. Scherzer seems to want to be back, I'd be totally fine with that (and Lauer as long-man that will end up in the rotation inevitably due to injuries). And bring back Bassitt as an RP, please.

Gotta think they'd at least explore the market for Berrios at this point. Berrios for an OF bat on a mediocre contract would seem to make sense. Scherzer seems to want to be back, I'd be totally fine with that (and Lauer as long-man that will end up in the rotation inevitably due to injuries). And bring back Bassitt as an RP, please."

Jays OF right now is Santander, Varsho, and Barger with Straw, Lukes, and Schneider as reserves. The kind of guy you'd get for Berrios is like Javy Baez maybe? What's the point? And for what? To move to Scherzer as a 5th starter? Berrios is probably better in that roll as he is much more likely to eat innings. Either way, Not close to worth it. This is why it likely doesn't really make sense to trade him. Berrios is a fine 4th/5th starter which the Jays need. If you could trade him for a reliever, maybe it'd make sense but relievers don't make that kind of money so anything you'll trade Berrios for is likely a player the Jays need less than they need Berrios.

The 2024 version of Cease was very good.  If he walks just about 3 per 9 IP with this defence behind him, he'll do very well and be a Cy Young candidate, I think.  Strikeouts may not be fascist, but a single-minded focus on them will not bring out the best in a pitcher.  

I would like Bassitt back

Bo back

sign a better-than-Hoffman arm

Bring back Dominguez

Leave Varland in the bullpen

Trade away Rodriguez

Think of this back end bullpen:

Closer
Hoffman
Garcia
Varland
Dominguez

I like Berrios and still think he was pitching injured the past two years, putting his iron man reputation on the table.

Bassitt I see as a late winter guy - if no one signs him as a starter then he comes back for our pen. He looked and sounded like he was enjoying that role in the World Series, but like most of us would prefer to make a starters salary over a relievers. Dominguez I think they want to upgrade on - by the end of the World Series they lost confidence in him it seemed. Rodriguez I see as a likely guy to be traded as someone will want to use him as a starter, where he'd be a bargain if he can handle it, or as a closer, again a bargain if he can do it - he has shown those skills in the past in flashes, bound to be a team that thinks they can pull it out of him. But neither role is available for him here thus making him an ideal trade candidate.

Right now though I expect the Jays are dual focused - Bo or Tucker, and a closer, be it Diaz-Williams-Suarez or maybe Helsley-Fairbanks but those last 2 I see as a later winter chase once the bigger ones are gone. Kenley Jansen is out there again and still solid, trying to get to 500 saves. Wonder if Cleveland would consider a multi-player deal to get Cade Smith and Steven Kwan here - that'd cover closer and OF (LH OF with 'wow' defense in LF) - unlikely, and probably very costly, but it'd certainly finish off the winter shopping at the high end nicely.

People are rightly focused on Bo and Tucker as potential additions, but a trade could also be a nifty way to add a good player with less of a financial outlay. 2026 is a “go for it” year for the Blue Jays, and it might be worth parting with a couple of good prospects to acquire a difference-making player.

It is worth going back and seeing which prospects the Jays have dumped in trades that you'd like back. Off the top of my head I get Noah Syndergaard (15.7 bWAR, 1 ASG, traded for RA Dickey coming off a Cy Young), Jeff Kent (55.4 bWAR, 1 MVP, might get into HOF, used up rookie status as a Jay just before the trade, traded for David Cone '92), and Michael Young (24.7 bWAR 7 ASG, 1 GG, traded for Esteban Loaiza). Can't think of other 'oh crap what did we do' trades off the top of my head. The Kent for Cone was well worth it (WS win), Syndergaard for Dickey seemed good but could be argued we'd have been better off not doing it (playoffs in 15/16 but Syndergaard pitched better than Dickey those years and might have helped the Jays get to the WS, who knows?), Michael Young was a total loss - no playoffs, had a painful pitcher to watch in return (he was sloooooow) sigh.

Any others? Bottom line is trading prospects rarely comes back to bite a team - there are other clubs with horrid ones (Bagwell for Anderson by the Red Sox comes to mind) but those tended to be really dumb at the time trades by GM's who wouldn't get jobs nowadays. I wouldn't be shocked if the Jays decide to do a big trade that they might regret in 5 years - say, trading Arjun Nimmala or Ricky Tiedemann or Johnny King or Gage Stanifer if the right player/combo is made available. Big risk but after a big reward. Pitchers are so variable it is often worth dealing them to get guys already in the majors - in 2012/13 offseason the Jays debated Sanchez/Syndergaard/Stroman as to which to deal - all 3 made top 100 lists either in 2012 or 2013, Syndergaard & Sanchez A, Stroman A+/AA - note: Osuna rookie A- so 4 very good future ML'ers all in the low minors then - plus Anthony DeSclafani (10 WAR - kind of sneaked up on that out of nowhere it seems - still pitching last year for Arizona). I remember AA saying he wanted a ton of pitchers as they are good trade chips. You need tons to get quality and they got some quality then and traded a few. The next year Matthew Boyd (12.2 bWAR) was in the system and Daniel Norris (low A in '12 5 bWAR) (both part of the David Price deal).

So yeah, you give up quality to get quality, but prospects also flame out a lot. See the Mitch White deal - we all feared Nick Frasso would make that look bad quickly but he got hurt a couple of times and was non-tendered (5.49 ERA in AAA in '25). I could go through a long list of prospect blowouts (traded and not traded) as they happen all the time, but when a guy sticks and does well...wow (Trey Yesavage the latest example of that).

But what if Rogers wants to be the LAD of the American League. In this scenario they can sign the best players and keep their best prospects.

We know they have shifted the budget to benefit the baseball team recently.

We know they had a windfall monetization this year.

We know they seem happy with the Vlad contract and fan re-engagement.

We know the stadium renovation seems to be a success with strong return.

Really, what is the reason for them not to pay penalties in the cap if it means remaining competitive longer and continuing the fan engagement across the country?

My impression from what Shapiro said recently is that team payroll should be around the same level as it was in 2025. Maybe ownership would approve a somewhat higher level than that if it meant adding a star player like Tucker or Bo (in addition to any other players the team adds). I would be surprised if they positioned themselves as LAD North and added Bo and Tucker. In any event, we'll find out soon enough what the strategy is for 2026.

dalimon5 - agreed, they have the cash, the question is how do the guys running the team feel about putting tons into guys right now vs keeping space for the future? How much should you lock in for the next 5+ years? A Marte (switch hitting 2B) trade might work well - he makes from $12-22 mil per year ($18.2 per year average) for 2026-2030 so cheaper vs the $26+ mil a year Bo will cost, or the $30+ for Tucker which opens up space for more additions elsewhere regardless of what budget you get.

In truth, all deals/signing made should be purely to improve the team in '26 and beyond. Cease cost 2 draft picks (2nd and 5th) plus $1 mil of international cap space - a second type A (Tucker and/or Diaz) costs 2 more draft picks (3rd and 6th) meaning this years draft will produce very, very little. Note: 9 teams paid the CBT thus all 9 have those penalties (Jays-Red Sox-Yankees-Astros-Dodgers-Mets-Phillies-Padres-Rangers). Cease is the only guy getting a QO who has signed so far (Schwarber, Tucker, Ranger Suarez, Valdez, Bo, Diaz, Gallen, King are the others), plus 4 had QO and took them (Grisham, Torres, Woodruff, Imanaga). You don't lose anything if you sign your own player or they take the QO.

Best with no QO are Bregman, Bellinger, Eugenio Suárez, Pete Alonso, Ha-Seong Kim, Merrill Kelly, Jorge Polanco, Chris Bassitt, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Verlander, etc. Bellinger and Bregman are the only ones that jump out here to me. Doubt the Jays are going for any of the guys from Japan or Korea this year unless there is a reliever out there I didn't notice.

Re-signing Bo (2B) and trading for Kwan (LF) could be a good way to improve the team without breaking the bank. If Kwan returns to full health in 2026, he could end up having a very good season for a contending Blue Jays team. His extremely low K rate (9.5% career) and strong defense fits well with the team's overall approach. He's right in his prime at age 28 and is controllable for two more seasons.

I really don't want Kwan. I don't know why people love him so much. 2 of the last years, he's had a WRC+ of 99. If I'm giving up legitimate prospects, I don't want a defensive-minded LF.

Glevin I agree about Kwan - when I look at stat sheets and evaluations in excel. When you watch Kwan legitimize the Guardians line up, get on base and become damn near impossible to get out you realize it's hard to quantify his value.

Have you watched him play much and if yes then how can you use WRc+ as a legitimate gripe? He wouldn't be brought in to create runs alone in a vacuum. The question you should ask yourself is "how much would the WRC+ of the entire line up improve with him in the line up?

Drive up pitchers counts, get on base, steal bases ... he's a perfect player.Wiuld you rather add Alonso and his higher WRc+ to the line up with Vlad, Santander and one more expected power hitter to be added?

Kwan wasn't fully healthy last year (wrist issue and maybe other issues, I think).

He has a career 112 wRC+. If he can match or exceed that in 2026 and add his usual good defense, good baserunning, and incredible contact skills, all embedded in a good offensive and defensive team, I think it would lead to very good things for the Blue Jays -- if he's truly healthy.

Imagine a defense of Kwan (LF), Varsho (CF), Barger (RF), Straw (fourth OF), Clement (3B), Gimenez (SS), Bo (2B), Vladdy (1B), Kirk (C). That is a *wow* defensive team.

To me, adding Bo + Kwan seems like one of the most plausible position player upgrade scenarios for the Blue Jays this off-season.

Completely agree. Add back end help and the team would be legit elite.

I could totally see the Jays trading for Kwan. That would probably be the least surprising Jays acquisition ever.

We love (hate?) Kwan because he's hit .300/.352/.450 against the Jays in 108 PA with 8 walks and 8 strikeouts, seemingly annoying the heck out of Jays pitchers. Perhaps that's unsustainable, but when he plays the Jays he's basically Bo Bichette with excellent defense and good baserunning.

Kwan reminds me of a better version of Benintendi. His baserunning has dropped off so what he did last year is be a league average hitter and play exceptional defense in LF. He also has massively over performed his expected numbers (career.351 OBP VS expected of. 317.). I absolutely could see the Jays going for him (Cleveland, doesn't K) but if I'm giving up top prospects, I'm not doing it for Kwan, I'm doing it for a middle of the order bat or another top starter.

Kwan catches me as an ideal #2 in this lineup - between Springer and Vlad - Vlad says he likes to see the starter throw a bit before facing him, and Kwan is that type of hitter - 3.99 PPA, 45th in MLB, best of the Jay regulars was Springer at 3.94 (#56 in MLB). Schneider for semi-regulars led at 4.46, Santander 4.23, Leo Jimenez was the best of any Jay at 4.47 fwiw (32 PA). In 2024 Kwan was at 3.99 as well, 3.96 in '23. So pretty consistent I'd say when it comes to PPA. FYI: Lukes at 3.78 last year, Bo 3.66 (higher than I expected). Lowest regular in MLB won't shock anyone - Ernie Clement at 3.18. Everyone else sub 3.20 had under 25 PA. The data goes back to 1988, when 2 regulars were sub 3 PPA (Kirby Puckett and Carney Langsford) Alfredo Griffin that year was 3.15 (probably one of his higher figures - that guy swung at EVERYTHING), Damaso Garcia was at 2.93 (60 PA for Atlanta, near the end for him - like Griffin he swung at stuff that bounced up at times).

Mix in Kwan's lifetime playoff figure of 321/380/405 (92 PA) and he really looks damn tempting. Santander would be in RF (splitting RF/DH with Springer, having Straw come in late for defense). If the Guardians would be willing to include their closer then the Jays would be wise to give up a decent prospect or two for them. Kwan has just 2 years of control left which cuts his value a bit.

To add to the fun the Brewers are 'concerned about payroll' thus might be selling despite having the best record in the NL last year (if you won't spend when winning, when will you spend?).

Christian Yelich is the big item on their payroll - $23.370 mil of CBT space, $24.03 mil in cash for 2026. He is a LF/DH who mainly was a DH last year thus not too appealing. 121 OPS+, career 132, 151 in '24. Entering age 34 season, under contract through age 36. Nah. Doesn't fit well unless he can field still (LH hitter is a plus). Honestly, looking at their roster very few guys crack $10 mil. Yelich, Woodruff (can't be traded until May I think, accepted QO), William Contreras (catcher), Jackson Chourio (signed through 2031 for $10.25 mil per) solid D at all 3 OF positions, 115 wRC+ lifetime in 2 seasons - they'd be insane to trade a guy entering his age 22 season with that good of a deal. For over $5 mil you also get Freddy Peralta (RH starter (roughly a 3 fWAR starter the past 3 years and projected there for 2026), and Andrew Vaughn (1B/DH with a 101 wRC+ lifetime - zero interest there, in arbitration years so might be released).

Yeah, not much there considering they were looking like a serious WS contender but are so cheap they don't have bad contracts to deal. To cut their payroll they'd need to cut muscle out of their team - if they are so stupid/desperate they'd trade Chourio then sure I'd take him in a half second but otherwise there isn't anything there unless they got desperate and added in quality prospects with Yelich in a deal (or set up a 3 way with Jays where someone else got Yelich or Santander).

A comp I'm thinking of for Cease is Zack Wheeler. Obviously Cease´s contract is much larger than what Wheeler got from the Phillies heading in to 2020, but I see a similarity as a pitcher getting paid much more for the tools than for the results thus far in his career. And it makes sense that Cease cost a lot more than Wheeler as he´s demonstrated a both a higher ceiling and a longer track record of durability than what Wheeler had heading in to free agency.

Maybe Wheeler just comes to mind because I´m an optimist. That turned out to be an excellent signing for the Phillies.

I don’t really see Wheeler as a great comp because he really trimmed his walk rate in the two years before he became a free agent agent — from around 4 BB/9 to 2.71 BB/9 in 2018 and then 2.30 BB/9. He has since maintained a very low walk rate throughout his career (high walk rate from ages 23-27, low walk rate from ages 28-35).

Whereas Cease’s career walk rate is 3.81 BB/9, and he was right around that mark in 2025 (3.80 BB/9) in 2025.

It’s possible that Cease will be able to improve his performance in this regard, but other than in 2024 to some extent (3.09 BB/9), he hasn’t been able to manage this yet.

STEAMER

Valdez (32.0yrs, 93.7fva, 90.8ev): 31gs, 190.0ip, 3.47era, 3.47fip, 3.41xfip, 3.8war
Gray (36.1yrs, 91.7fva. 88.9ev): 31gs. 181.0ip, 3.68era, 3.48fip, 3.41xfip, 3.7war
Cease (29.9yrs, 97.1fva, 88.9ev): 32gs, 185.0ip, 3.60era, 3.57fip, 3.66xfip, 3.6war
Suarez (30.3yrs, 91.3fva, 86.5ev): 29gs, 169.0ip, 3.55era, 3.62fip, 3.68xfip, 3.3war

The thong aboit those Steamers is that 4mph leaves a lot more margin for error. Sure, gas is what he has, so pitentially catastrophic if he loses that quickly & doesnt learn how to pitch.

I honestly think Tiderman would make a heck of a closer right now.

I'll take the under on those Suarez innings for sure. Probably Gray too. I think he's going to find AL East (and Fenway home park) a whole different animal than NL Central.

Switching leagues/divisions is a big issue - not as big as it was a few years ago before they made the schedules more balanced, but still an issue. Lets see how these guys did vs the AL East in their careers. Note: limited value as teams change so much year to year but given they get 1-3 starts a year vs any team pretty much you need multiple years to get anything worth checking.

• Cease vs AL East: Yankees: 5.34 ERA 6 starts 32 IP 210/299/429; Red Sox 6.04 ERA 6 starts 28 1/3 IP 288/367/432; O's: 3.89 ERA 7 starts 39 1/3 IP 210/307/371; Rays: 5.23 ERA 7 starts 32 2/3 IP 242/365/403; Jays: 1.80 ERA 3 starts 21 1/3 IP 125/176/281 - so he killed the Jays, but wasn't great vs anyone else. Good vs the O's, hurt by the NYY & Sox.
• Gray: Yankees: 4.15 ERA 8 starts 47 2/3 IP 265/328/373; Red Sox: 6.20 ERA 11 starts 1 relief 53 2/3 IP 282/335/477; O's: 4.37 ERA 15 starts 80 1/3 IP 232/305/368; Rays: 4.14 ERA 17 games 15 starts 95 2/3 IP 264/319/453; Jays: 2.91 ERA over 14 starts 1 relief 80 1/3 IP 234/333/351

A bit tedious putting that together. Doesn't look good for Cease, makes Gray look good/not great though. Both ate up the Jays in the past.

Don't think it's just about the AL East, it's about how weak the central divisions are. For example, Gray faced the Pirates four times last year and threw 25.1 innings against them. He had 25 K's,l and a 1.91 ERA against them. Kevin Gausman on the other hand, faced the Yankees 4 times. Baltimore had the worst OPS+ of any AL East team and was better than than 3 NL central teams.

Excellent point Glevin - Cease is going from one nuclear division to another - NL West (SD/SF/LAD all fighting hard with a decent Arizona team there too, plus the hopeless Rockies) to the AL East (Jays/NYY/Red Sox all fighting hard, Rays always sneak in there, O's looked to be on the upswing but cheap owners are killing them - 18th in final payroll last year, started at 15th after being in the playoffs 2 years in a row with a clear need in the rotation).

Btw, checked the O's payroll and the highest paid is Tyler O'Neill at $16.5 per for 2026/27, Taylor Ward is likely to get over $10 mil in arbitration, Gunner Henderson likely to be near $10 mil, everyone else likely to be $9 mil or less. Only Samuel Basallo is signed past 2026 outside of O'Neill (signed through 2033 - 966 OPS in AAA but in 31 ML games just a horrid 56 OPS+ at age 20, so not unreasonable to expect a lot more going forward).

Yeah, I expect the O's to go back to their long term plan of collecting revenue sharing money while not trying real hard, hoping to get lucky in the draft/IFA and will lose Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman to free agency at some point.

The Rays will continue to do whatever they can, but their magic is running low by now - Jays, Yankees, Red Sox all have both money and smarts which makes it hard to win via being the smartest in the room. Rogers now knows the money is massive when the Jays win, thus will keep funding them as a top 5 team so 3 top 5 spending teams could be in the AL East - that makes things very, very hard for the others.

I'm really hoping we don't lose 2027-2028 as owners try to make sure the O's can compete without spending or trying. Ideally they get 2 new expansion teams and rejig the divisions so the Jays aren't in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox - make the regular season a LOT easier - imagine a new central with Jays-Cleveland-Detroit-Pirates-Reds-Brewers-Twins-Rockies, East: NYY-NYM-Boston-Philly-O's-Washington-new team-Atlanta, South Central: Rays-Marlins-Astros-Rangers-Cubs-White Sox-Cardinals-Royals, West: Arizona-LAD-LAA-SD-SF-A's-Seattle-new team. That would be an interesting set. Rockies are a tough one as they gotta go somewhere but are close to no one. That new East would be a killer beast with 4 super-high spenders grouped together. Divisions could be cut in half to 4 teams per. Jays would be with Detroit-Cleveland-Pittsburgh, Reds-Brewers-Twins-Rockies the welfare division (none like to spend). Not hard to split up all into 4 team groups. Division winners in playoffs, then wild cards to fill it in. If 4 team divisions then it could be very interesting. We'd see a sub-500 division winner at some point, maybe year 1 even. Eh, enough rambling.

I actually think that the rest of the Jays off-season plan should be simple. Sign Bo or Tucker, sign a late inning reliever (Suarez, Helsley, etc...) and then maybe also another swingman type for starter depth. However, they can also be more interesting if they trade players away to create space. Some hitters who appear to be available who Jays might be interested in: Kwan, Donovan, Marte, Brentan Doyle.

Should Berrios be the #5 SP in 2026?

He had an injury late in the season, so his high innings count may be starting to catch up to him. For 2026, Steamer projects him to throw 159 innings with a 4.52 ERA, 7.59 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 1.39 HR/9, 1.5 fWAR. Which is fine for a #5 pitcher, if the projection holds.

I’m wondering if Lauer would be a more effective #5. He would also give opposing teams a different look from the left side. Berrios might be more effectively and better able to stay healthy as a RP.

It would help if Tiedemann is able to join the rotation in the second half if needed, but he might be on the reliever track at this point.

Berrios should be fine.
They can't really do anything else with him.
Lauer was great, but he's not giving you 7 innings regularly which is what they need.

To me, the guy they could move is Leo Jimenez.
Can they get a reliever for him?
He's on track to be DFAed at the end of the spring.

Berrios started 30 games in 2025.

Number of games he lasted 7 innings: 3 (10% of his starts)

Number of games he lasted longer than 7 innings: 1 (3% of his starts)

Ryan Helsley is signing a two year deal with the Orioles. That's one high end relief option gone.

Berrios: At least 6 innings in 25, 13 games. At least one out in the 7th, 6 games.
Lauer: At least 6 innings in 25, 3 games. Only once went beyond.

Right now, the pen is Hoffman, Garcia, Varland, Fisher, Little, Nance, Lauer, Fluharty and Rodriguez.
I don't expect Varland to be optioned. That only Leave Fisher, Little and Fluharty with options.
Bastardo can't be optioned and might knock somebody out. He could be a decent reliever.
He has a good change up.
Rodriguez might do better this time if he's focused as a high leverage guy from the get go.
 

You can’t really compare Berrios and Lauer in that way because Berrios was a SP all year, whereas Lauer had to gradually ramp up as a SP in May and June after starting out in the bullpen. Once he built up his pitch count, he actually went fairly deep into games, peaking at 8 innings in late July (a threshold Berrios never reached all season).

Presumably Lauer would be able to consistently pitch deeper into games in 2026 if the Blue Jays committed to him as a SP in spring training.

I think saying you need your team's fifth starter (at least assuming everyone is healthy) to give you 7 innings regularly is holding them to a standard that no major league team meets regularly.

However, further to that point about Lauer, he was a full-time starter in 2022 and went 7 innings in 4 of his 29 starts.

In 2025, Berrios went at least 6 innings in 14 of 30 starts. Lauer did that 15 times in 29 starts.

Berrios has hit more than 170 innings six times, which Lauer never has, and that counts for something. However, Lauer isn't someone who will max out at 5 innings if everything's going well if he's a full-time starter.

> Berrios has hit more than 170 innings six times, which Lauer never has, and that counts for something.

And his longer history of excellence counts for something too. That said, Berrios, while still not toast, has statistically been trending downwards. His walks and home runs are drifting up, but more alarmingly his strikeouts have dropped. He has career 8.5 SO/9. In 2024 and 2025 that was 7.2 and 7.5 respectively. In the meantime, Lauer had what looked like a career year and was clearly better than Berrios in 2025. The noticeable change statistically for Lauer is that he only had 2.2 BB/9 in 2025 which is quite a bit better than his 3.3 career mark. (Career SO9 for Lauer is a Berrios-imitation 8.6).

Who is better going forward? I'm guessing Lauer given Berrios' trajectory, but I also suspect they'll give Berrios plenty of rope, and first  crack at the rotation (assuming he's fit and hasn't mouthed off about the playoffs...).

People sometimes refer to a SP as “durable” because he’s thrown a lot of innings, season after season. But there can sometimes be a downside to that so-called durability, insofar as the pitcher in question has a lot of mileage on his arm (almost 1600 MLB innings, in Berrios’s case). You never really know when all those pitches thrown will catch up to a player, in the form of injuries or diminished performance.

Lauer may be a better bet as a SP in 2026 partly because his arm is fresher.

Lauer also said that his on-field performance last season was partly due to having the support of a sports psychologist. If he has fundamentally changed his approach to pitching, his “career year” in 2025 may be replicable, at least in the short term. (Or it may be an outlier — see, for example, Ross Stripling’s 2022 season with the Blue Jays.)

I still believe that Berrios has been pitching with compromised health the past two years and any comparisons are such with "partial Jose." If he can get healthy I don't see why he can't return to peak form. He's gone on record to say he was injured, "not right," and not better than the other pitching options on the playoff roster. I'm not going to throw out his track record of success or his dominant playoff starts because he's been bad recently and said he was injured.

I hope he comes back from whatever it is that has been ailing him and dominates again.

Lauer made 5 starts with Buffalo totaling 24 innings.
He didn't pitch in relief there.

It's hard to presume anything.

Feels like a forced and awkward comparison. Lauer is probably a lot better than most think and Berrios also is probably a lot more like Berrios pre 2024.

The Blue Jays will probably need at least 6-8 SPs over the course of the season. So they should think hard about who could end up in the rotation beyond Gausman, Cease, Bieber, Yesavage, Berrios and Lauer.

It’s good to have rotation depth that also offers upside. Look at the 2025 postseason. The team heavily counted on a just-promoted rookie (Yesavage), an oft-injured 41-year-old (Scherzer), and a summer trade acquisition (Bieber) to fill out a competitive rotation.

Meanwhile, presumed stalwarts like Berrios and Bassitt were injured or relegated to bullpen duty (Bassitt performed admirably in that role).

Agreed that Jays will likely need 7-8 guys who can start. With the five and Lauer and then Bowden Francis the closest guys are probably Stanifer and Tidemann but I wouldn't count on them. 7 guys who can start might be enough but likely Jays will invite some guys to spring as well and get some AAA depth. Jays can only really add here if they subtract from current rotation. Backend Bullpen guy and middle of the order bat are necessary.

Bowden really should move back to the pen where he had more success. I like Tiedemann as a power reliever (high leverage potential) who could go two innings. His delivery and control suggest reliever.

Velo was down this year but was still at his career norm last year. That is, the 4-seamer averaging 94mph.
He used to throw more 4-seamers and he started mixing in a cutter 2 years ago.
He threw 152 of those this year. The cutter is around 89 mph.
I think the most important thing for Berrios is the shape of the slurve, not an extra mph on the fastball.

Varland and Yariel Rodriguez can also start.

Maybe, but they can only stretch 1 reliever.

For starting depth the setup right now is IMO...

5 man Rotation: Cease-Gausman-Bieber-Yesavage-Berrios

ML Backup (6th): Lauer
Minors (7-12): Bowden Francis-Lazaro Estrada-Ricky Tiedemann-Jake Bloss-Adam Macko-Gage Stanifer (AA so mid-season at earliest)

It is rare to have more than 12 used. Last year 11 had 2+ starts, 4 more 1 start each. 4 starters were really openers (Schultz/Rodriguez/Fisher/Varland). The 4 1 gamers had 6 1/3 total IP as a starter, the 2 with 2 starts each had 11 IP as starters between them so those 6 starters, covering 8 starts, threw a total of 17 1/3 IP allowing 17 R/ER on 7 HR - basically not more than one would expect from calling up a rando from the minors. I suspect the 7 guys I list for 6-12 could do better than that.

#6-9 last year were Francis-Bieber-Lucas-Yesavage based on games started. Francis had by far the most starts at 14, then it went 7-5-3 As we all know Bieber was a mid-season trade and Yesavage was in his first pro season. Thus at season start only Francis and Lucas were being counted on as depth with many hoping Francis would be good thanks to his insane 2nd half in '24 (thanks to an insanely low BABIP). The 2 we counted on threw 83 2/3 IP 61 ER for a 6.56 ERA 4.4 IP per start. Yuck. And that was for a team that had the best record in the AL.

Think about that - a team that had the best record in the AL, had a 6.56 ERA from the guys they counted on for 6/7 in the rotation with under 5 IP per game. For 2026 the plan is 6 will be Lauer (3.77 ERA in '25) plus kids who should be a lot better than a 6 ERA (Tiedemann I still have hopes for).

Don't forget also that the Jays can still do a mid-season trade. They got Bieber last year, who knows what'll be available mid-season this year. Some who are on final years are Matthew Boyd (mutual option), Corbin Burnes (opt-out opportunity, not a hope he does that though), Carlos Carrasco, Jack Flaherty, Kyle Freeland (player option potentially), Brandon Woodruff, Tarik Skubal, Luis Severino (player option), Shota Imanaga, and many others. If their teams are out of it they will all be on the trading block with Skubal the most interesting obviously should the Tigers flop in '26 after their collapse then brief revival in '25.

Everyone is pencilling Yesavage into the rotation, but I'm not convinced. It would be quite the innings jump to project him for 32 starts and then have him still fresh for the (hopeful) playoffs. Instead of limiting him to 5 innings per start and hampering the team throughout the season, they might be better off having him pitch out of the bullpen to open the season, and then stretch him out later based on need. There could be an opportunity for Lauer (Scherzer?) to open the season in rotation. The focus should be getting the best out of Yesavage late in the season, just as it was in 2025.

Yesavage threw 140ip over 30 starts and 4 relief appearances last year and was very fresh to end the year. Not sure we need to baby him.

41.2 of those innings came starting September 15th. If he makes every start and goes around 6 innings, he'll be at his innings limit before the playoffs even start.

Pretty sure they need to baby him, unless they don't believe in innings limits.

Hope for 25 starts be content with 18.

Any idea why the Cease deal hasn't been announced officially? Seems a touch long...holidays?

I wouldn't start Cease and Gausman back to back.
Way too similar.

Just look at how many starts the Dodgers aces made.
Yamamoto 30.
Glasnow 18.
Othani 14.
Snell 11.

There's a marathon before the sprint.

he pitched 140 innings last year and 5 innings for 32 starts this year would have him at 160 innings what kind of innings limit did you have in mind exactly?

IP/start last year

Gausman 6.03
Bieber 5.76
Bassitt 5.46
Berrios 5.46
Scherzer 5.00
Lauer 4.93
Yesavage 4.67
Francis 4.57

Perhaps you missed the part of my first message where I pointed out having him go only 5 each time would hamper the team. Even if he goes on the low end of the regular SPs last year he’ll be at 175 innings before the playoffs start, and teams like to limit guys to 30 inning jumps.

Personally I don’t believe in innings limits, but I don’t think it’s so cut-and-dry that Yesavage opens the season in the big league rotation.

30ip increases? is that even an actual thing?

Yesavage 2025: Minors 98 IP, Majors 14 IP, playoffs 27 2/3 IP = 139 2/3 IP. Previous high in college was 93 1/3 in '24. So a jump of 46 1/3 vs the year before. Add the same for '26 and you'd get 186 IP, 5 IP per game 32 starts = 160 IP leaving 26 for the playoffs (basically the same workload as last year). You can reduce his regular season a touch by skipping a start around the All-Star break or when there are 2 off days in a week (April 9 off day, 3 games vs Minny, off day April 13th for example).

Btw, weird schedule - in September the Jays only have 3 vs the O's for a divisional matchup. Aug 10-23rd will be the tough stretch: Boston (4), Yankees (3), day off, 3 in Tampa, 3 in NYY. That could decide the division as they don't face any of those 3 after that.

Bottom line - using a reasonable rest plan for Yesavage you should be able to keep his innings down. Also can mix in 6 man rotation when needed (August might with a 10 game stretch, day off, 6, day off, 6, day off. Plus right after the ASG - 13 straight, day off, 6, day off then that August stretch. So I'd expect a 6 man post-ASG until September. By then, with any luck, Tiedeman or one of the other kids will be ready for their shot to earn the Yesavage late season call-up/post season hero status award. Or the Jays will know they need to add more pitching at the deadline. One or the other.

They might consider limiting innings via "load management" based on something like...if release points are dipping, or spin is declining...(I'm not sure what proxy you want to use)...perceived fatigue? Velocity? Whatever the case, it could make sense to monitor and give a bit of extra rest throughout the season to starters here and there. The sanctity of "The Rotation" doesn't seem to be as much of a scared cow as in the past. With that said, the Jays have nearly completed the infinity gauntlet of guys that will take the ball every 5th day come hell or high water....so...who knows?

As I've said for years, the idea of an innings limit shut down just seems so out of step with basically all evidence for how to train human bodies via progressive stimuli that we have, and I haven't seen very compelling evidence that the 140th+N inning carries greater risk than innings 1-140; in fact, I've seen the opposite.

Another item for the Jays this winter - do you do extensions for anyone who is a free agent post 2026?

FA Post '26: Varsho, Springer, Garcia, Gausman, Bieber, Lauer, Straw (team option $8m vs $1.75m buyout = $6.25m debate), Berrios (player option $24 mil plus $24m for '28)
FA Post '27: Hoffman, Rodriguez (player option $6m or team option $10m), Straw (2nd option year $8.5m vs $500k buyout, $8 mil debate).

I suspect Straw will be bought out for $1.75 mil. Berrios will go to free agency if he has a good year (110+ ERA+ over 30+ starts) and might if he has a 'meh' year (100 ERA+ over 25+ starts) depending on how the market goes this winter and how ugly the labor dispute will be.

Varsho is the big debate imo - do you give him, say, 5/$100 mil? Gausman, Bieber both are wait and see I suspect unless they come to the Jays with a nice offer. Lauer & Garcia I can't imagine the Jays offering long term deals to, especially Garcia. I could see them asking Straw if he'd be willing to renegotiate the next 2 years but only post-2026. I could see a situation where the Jays keep him for '27 if, say, Varsho goes to free agency and doesn't look likely to return - $6.25 mil isn't much for a guy who might provide 3+ WAR should he play regularly (mostly via defense).

I think Varsho is worth extending if you can at a reasonable price.

I think Straw at $8M is fine too. These days that's a backup price, and Straw is a plus player to have as a 4th OF.

What I want to know is, how did Nolan Ryan throw 5386 high-velocity innings (5714 strikeouts), remaining elite into his mid-40s, and then retiring after his age-46 season? He also walked 2795 batters. Tiring!

His innings progression went like this:

Age 21: 134 IP
Age 22: 89.1 IP
Age 23: 131.2 IP
Age 24: 152 IP
Age 25: 284 IP (329 K)
Age 26: 326 IP (383 K)
Age 27: 332.2 IP (367 K)

Yes, some other MLB greats logged more innings. For example, Cy Young threw 7356 innings. But he pitched to contact! Only 2803 strikeouts and 1217 walks.

Note to dalimon. This is per Shi Davidi on Sportsnet (the entire article is worth a read):

The scale and scope of the Cease deal, on the heels of the World Series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, has some imaginations running wild, with some predicting an epic spree. Let’s start with this, the Blue Jays aren’t suddenly taking their payroll to Dodgers or New York Mets levels so, barring an unlikely set of circumstances, they’re not re-signing Bo Bichette and adding Kyle Tucker. But, they could certainly still add one of them, even with Cease’s pending deal, and they’re engaged on both fronts.

One thing to keep in mind is that if the Blue Jays don’t get Bichette or Tucker, they can’t simply reallocate the money they would have spent on them elsewhere, as they’re being viewed as specific business cases, like Shohei Ohtani two winters ago.

That’s notable because when asked about payroll for next year during his season wrap availability, president and CEO Mark Shapiro pointed to “an unprecedented level of support” this season and added, “I don't see that support going backwards at all.”

Davidi also writes that the Blue Jays want to sign another leverage arm for the bullpen, that they have strong interest in both Bo and Tucker, and that Marte is an interesting name floating around nonspecifically in trade rumors (although observers are unsure if he's likely to get moved or not).

Thanks for the link. Devin Williams just signed with the Mets, I wonder how Many more moves will be happening before the Winter Meetings.

I would love to see a FA/trade combo if an attractive set of moves can be made. This could be a way to maximize the talent acquired while staying within a reasonable (large) team payroll. For example:

Tucker (FA) + Marte (trade) + leverage arm (FA or trade)

OR

Bo (FA) + Kwan (trade) + leverage arm (FA or trade)

The first trade listed might provide more immediate impact. But the second combo would involve younger players (Kwan is 28, cheap, and controllable for two years; Marte is 32 and under contract for five more seasons, and the contract includes a player option for the year after that).

Last point. Bo is being talked about a lot as a potential FA addition for the Blue Jays, and this could conceivably happen. But how willing is he to make the switch to second base at this point in his career? If the choice is Dodgers with a promise to let him play SS for at least a couple of more seasons, or Blue Jays on the understanding that he's a second baseman from this point forward, which offer does he accept?

greenfrog - re Bo at SS or 2nd
My guess is that $$ determines desirability. I.e. if he's getting PAID like a great-hitting SS vs. a good-hitting 2B, I don't think he cares so much where he plays. I.e. if both teams offer 5/$150, and he gets either 5 years at 2B or 2 SS / 3 2B, I can't see it making a difference if he'd prefer to play at the first location. Unless he has a philosophical / aversion to playing 2B?
Assuming he's signing a 5+ year contract, I would bet he'll be at 2B by the end, whether he starts there or not, so it won't affect his N+1 contract either way. Unless he's angling for a pillow contract - which by all accounts he's not - it seems somewhat irrelevant? 

The big issue is payroll in the end. How much is available and where best to spend?

Closer: Diaz is now very available with Williams signing with the Mets. But the price is clearly $20m per year with Helsley/Iglesias/Williams signing for $14-$16 mil per - can't see Diaz moving much although his potential teams are shrinking but still include Toronto and LAD, neither of which hesitate to spend. I suspect that is the biggest priority to the Jays, with backups in the 3 who signed range - Robert Suarez last of the mid-range closers, Fairbanks, Jansen the next level down ($8-12 mil per), then a batch of solid middle men. So do you sign 2 middle men or go big with Diaz or go 'meh' with one of the other 2. Do you make a trade? Who is available?

Offense: 2 clear targets in FA in Bo & Tucker for $26-$35 mil per depending on years/willingness to defer money. But how critical is it? If either is signed the guys losing playing time are Lukes/Schneider who should produce at a 100-110 wRC+ level with decent defense. Bo is likely a 120s hitter, Tucker 130s - both can do better, but that is the most likely area they'll be.

IMO the biggest upside is upgrading closer as that shifts everyone else in the pen down a notch (upgrading every slot in the process) and removes the weakest link (likely Nance who they don't trust in pressure situations) vs adding a hitter which will remove a league average hitter from the team most likely.

Hopefully a team is willing to do a trade that gets the Jays that lock down closer plus the offensive upgrade (Cleveland being the best potential option with Kwan and Cade Smith - they are always cutting payroll and the Jays are well connected there, with limited dollars can't imagine they want to spend arbitration money on a closer).

Given a choice of one or the other, I would much prefer the addition of an impact position player (Tucker, Marte, Bo, Kwan) over a closer at this point. Relievers are too volatile. Look at Tanner Scott last year. Plus, a leverage arm (like Bednar) can usually be acquired at the trade deadline if necessary.

I've seen in a few places that the Jays are focusing on Pete Fairbanks.

A backend reliver or two always made more sense to me than another closer. Relievers are notoriously unreliable. I think you just want bunch of quality arms. Hoffman, Garcia, Varland and someone like Fairbanks would be a good bullpen especially with other talent swirling around (Tidemann, Fisher, etc...) ideally, Jays get a late inning lefty and ride hot hand/situation in key situations rather than rely on one closer type.

Not sure how much Garcia will have left in the tank in 2026, given his age and injury history. I don’t think the team can count on him being a productive member of the bullpen next year and into the postseason.

It's gotten difficult to read this site on phones again - I'm having to zoom in. Did something change?

Marc, what phone do you have that has ever allowed you to not have to zoom in? I read/post on this site from a mobile (iPhone) about 90% of the time and I'm constantly having to zoom in and out just to read a message and to post never mind contending with the weird auto correct that happens. Do you use android and did it not suffer from this issue until recently?

Who can we speak with to improve the mobile experience on the site? Would be happy to help find a solution that doesn't take away from the charm of da box.

Yeah I don't touch Apple stuff. I'm on Android and Chrome... it's been like this for a little while but it used to fit the screen.

same issue here.

I use firefox on android (at times - still prefer the desktop) and it seems to remember the zoom. At times it still zooms in if I click on the login part directly, but then zooms back out when I finish logging in.

I know the Jays signed Cease (thumbs up) but I'm still wild about Tatsuya Imai and I'd really like the Jays to get a foothold into the Japanese pipeline.

Mackenzie Gore is being shopped per mlbtraderumors.com

Read an article by Ben Nicholson-Smith which suggests the Jays might still be hunting for more starting pitching. Seems rumors are the Jays are still talking with Michael King, Chris Bassitt, maybe Max Scherzer (both of the ex-Jays said they want to come back), or a trade for Twin Joe Ryan, or the Nationals MacKenzie Gore. Other options include Cody Ponce (returning to NA from South Korea where he had a great year last season (sub 2 ERA, 12.6 K/9 vs 2.0 BB/9 over 180 2/3 IP). Plus of course Imai is still out there too. So tons of options if they want to go to a 6 man rotation or want to have Yesavage start in AAA or want to trade Berrios (eat $5-$10 mil per year if he picks up the options). Lots of interesting options. Quite frankly I think pitching is the low hanging fruit for improving the team. The more it is improved the better.

Btw, listened to the FanGraphs podcast (Extremely Wild) and it covered a lot about FIP vs future performance and someone did a ton of work on it and it showed even in extreme cases (like Cease) it is more likely to match FIP than ERA going forward. That the more complex formulas are more accurate still too. So his SIERA of 3.58 is far more likely to be his ERA in 2026 than his ERA of 4.55. His FIP was 3.56 xFIP 3.56 as well. So that makes me feel better about the signing. I was good with it before, but hearing that what I thought was true was shown to be right for pitchers from 2021-2024 (paired seasons of 100 IP+ used) makes me feel great about it.

Now, as to adding even more depth I get a bit concerned. The cost benefit ratio can get screwed up here as we are at the point of addition requiring subtraction. A solid closer helps, another long man to share innings with Lauer might be good, but then who goes away? Nance first, then who? Hoffman-Garcia-Varland-Fisher-Little-Rodriguez are all locks I'd think, as would be Lauer. That is 7 slots filled out of 8 which is why I see Nance as first out for a closer (be it a 'wow' like Diaz or a 'nice' like Fairbanks or even a solid middle man like Kyle Finnegan) then the struggle over who goes next for another starter or long man. Right now I'm expecting a trade soon involving a few parts like Rodriguez, Berrios, Nance (won't add much, but could be the final touch to get something over the line), Lukes, Schneider, Jimenez, Loperfido, even Straw perhaps. A few others in the pen could be traded too (Fisher, Little, Lauer) for the right player. I have to think the Jays want to clear out some deadwood which isn't bad but just 'meh'. You need a few 'meh' in AAA or on the bench, but the Jays have too much right now. To make room for another high end starter, a solid offensive piece (Bo, Tucker, whoever), and a closer won't be easy, nor will acquiring all those pieces. Lots of winter left though. December 10th was the big trade day last year (Gimenez & Sandlin acquired, Horwitz and Nick Mitchell sent away). December 13th signed Garcia, Dec 20th signed Lauer/Sanchez/Walker (all minor league free agents). Hoffman was Jan 10th. Straw Jan 17th, Santander Jan 20th, Feb 4th Scherzer. Things can happen now, or they might take until February or even March.

Apparently, Jays still interested in King even after Cease signing. That would obviously mean a Berrios trade. For me, King would be great but I'd rather they spend the money on the offensive side. Offense was great last year but there is plenty of room for regression. Get Bo and Tucker! Free agency is so weak in 2026.

Well, Manoah is now an Angel. $1.95 mil for 1 year. Nothing massive but I figure most here would be curious. How the mighty have fallen - basically double the ML minimum. Ryan Weiss who has never pitched in the majors, just Korea/minors/college got a $2.6 mil deal that could be worth over $10 mil for comparison.

Cody Ponce to the Blue Jays.

Ponce spent the last four years in Korea and Japan. He was starting there. Three year deal reportedly.

From MLB:

Ponce went 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 180 2/3 innings (12.6 K/9) for the Hanwha Eagles last season. Ponce's 252 K's set a new KBO single-season record, and he also set the single-game record with 18 strikeouts on May 17. Ponce was named the KBO League MVP and won the Choi Dong-won Award as the league's top starting pitcher.

Makes me think Berrios is on the way out (or hurt way worse than reported).

3 years, $30m per Passan.

I think the plan would be to keep ponce in the bullpen for a year and then move him into the rotation after Bieber/Gausman become free agents.

Wow. I like Ponce. His improvements are real but feels like Jays need to clear out some arms (Berrios and Yariel maybe?)

Ponce is said to need some mechanical cleanup - I won't be surprised if he starts as a multi-innings guy in his first year and hopefully into a starting role in year 2 - Gausman, Bieber and Lauer are all expiring contracts.

Ponce was a full 5-6 pitch pitcher before he left but seems to have added some velo in asia and maybe honed some strikeout pitches.


Lance Brozdowski
@LanceBroz
Here's Ponce's data for those interested...

4S: 95.5 mph, 17" iVB, 11.5" arm-side, 47% zone (oddly low for 6% BB), 27% whiff ... 2 mph velo boost! 🔥
CH: 87.6 mph, 2" iVB, 8.5" arm-side, 46% whiff (plus pitch, reinvention of old CH from MLB in 2021)
CT: 89.7 mph, 8.5" iVB, 1" glove-side, 56% zone (usage will jump in MLB)
CU: 81.2 mph, -14" iVB, 9" glove-side, mediocre results
SK: 92.4 mph, 7" iVB, 12" arm-side (tiny sample)

⚾️ 6.3' release height, 6.5' extension, 6'4" height ... big dude, probably ~45° arm angle
⚾️ He threw CT and gyro SL back in 2021 ... data I have shows some gyros, but mostly CT ... I'd assume either a) MLB org adds back the gyro + improves it or b) it's there and nested within the CT shape above ... in which case, still needs to be improved
⚾️ High probability he's throwing ~10-15% SK to right-handed hitters
⚾️ He's going to be a super fun arm for a team that needs pitching but won't spend big ... What's money here, maybe $10m AAV? 🤔
⚾️ Like NPB, KBO ball is different than MLB, his shapes will contract, most notably on the 4S... I'll go 16" iVB, 9.5" arm-side projection

Try this sequence of deals:
1) trade Berrios to a team willing to give up a handful of attractive prospects that Arizona would ultimately want
2) swap those prospects plus a couple more from Toronto for Ketel Marte, who would play in the outfield if we land Bo (or for the infield, if we land Tucker). Of course, the above could be a 3-way tradepji
3) sign Bichette for 2B and Tyler Rogers for the pen OR Tucker plus Rogers
4) would we be done?

Well if this FO doesn't trade some SP to clear out payroll for a bigger signing then this seems like Tideman, Stanifer, King and others will be on the block to bring in controllable high-asset trade candidates like Kwan or Marte.

“Gausman, Bieber and Lauer are all expiring contracts”

Of those three pitchers with contracts expiring by year end 2026, which would truly prefer to go elsewhere for 2027 and beyond as a FA? Assuming we would be happy to be competitive in re-signing Gausman and Bieber, I feel confident they would be willing to re-up.

Assume that we have the following in healthy shape: Cease, Yesavage, Ponce plus either Stanifer or Tiedemann having proven themselves, we would still need to fill one or two rotation slots.

Good point dalimon5 - suddenly the Jays are buried in riches when it comes to pitchers. 7 good ML calibre starters it seems in Gausman-Cease-Bieber-Yesavage-Berrios-Ponce-Lauer plus Tiedeman, Stanifer, King in the minors who could all be ready for prime time anytime. Not to mention guys like Francis who are now forgotten but might still be important for 2-3 starts in 2026.

Next shoe to drop? I figure a trade has to be coming soon. But will the Jays sign another free agent - Diaz or another closer? Bo or Tucker? Combo of the 3? This is fun to watch and see. I love unexpected pleasant surprises.

$10m works fine in the pen too.

If Ponce and Lauer start in the pen as SP depth that's more than fine imo.

It does feel like the Jays will get their bat from the trade market rather than free agency, unless they are going into Steve Cohen Tax territory (which they could). If it is a trade, then Marte or Buxton would be the highest upside impact players available, though the latter has a NTC. Buxton feels like a better fit to me because he can play CF in 2027-28 if/when Varsho leaves, though he's super injury prone so they'd have to mix a lot of DH days in there for him.

Curious to see what happens, but so far a fun off season.

Listening to different podcasts in this "slow" part of the off season... two things stuck out to me.

One podcaster keeps referring to a potential luxury tax + payroll of the Blue Jays as "the equivalent to a rounding error" for Rogers.

Another podcaster mentioned that Ricky Tiedeman has had some setbacks and is aiming to return later in the season.


So there's that. Assume Berrios is injured and Tiedeman is unavailable until 2nd half and Yesavage is limited...well in this "wose case" scenario it leaves Gausman, Bieber, Cease, Ponce and Lauer with some other prospects in AA and AAA...so still a strong rotation.

Makes me think they want to clear out Rodriguez and also baby all of their pitchers like the Dodgers did in 2025.

Best news is that Varland is staying in the bullpen. Hard to imagine that the Blue Jays would spend 40 million annually on new salary before the Winter Meetings and none of it went to a hitter.

Now if they could resign Bo and trade for RP the team would be in very good shape. I don't like the RP options left...all 31 year or older with big AAV. That Hoffman contract has already aged nicely. He will be 34 when it's done. Diaz is already 32, Rogers 35, Suarez 35, Fairbanks is 32.

Is it possible that Bieber is just hurt to start the year? Could this be cover?

It's always been strange that he took so little money.

Perhaps they have some creative piggybacking in mind. Maybe Ponce piggybacks with Yesavage one week and Bieber the next. Each member of the pair takes 3/4 innings which eliminates the need for several relievers on those days.

There are a ton of things we don't know as fans that the club does know - Bieber, Berrios health situations. What the plan is for Yesavage as far as innings go. Who they know is available in free agency. What the budget is. So many variables.

IMO the clearest possibilities are...
A: 6 man rotation of Gausman-Cease-Bieber-Yesavage-Ponce-Berrios reducing pen to 7 guys.
B: Berrios being traded (Jays eat some cash potentially)
C: someone is hurt (Berrios, Bieber)

I'm hoping it is B as that is the best case imo. A 6 man rotation means 27 starts each, a loss of 5 starts for the peak 5 to allow a 6th guy to get a stack of starts. MLB seems headed in that direction, but I'm not a fan of it (would prefer if they could find a way to go back to 4 man rotations - maybe twice through the order max or something with more long men in the pen who can go once through the full order).

Didn't Bieber have to go through a medical before the Blue Jays approved the trade? What is the failure rate of pitchers with a long MLB track record returning post tommy john and getting injured within 10 starts?

Atkins recently said Tiedemann is good but will be babied next year- starting out in the bullpen. I've heard nothing from any reputable sources otherwise. I could see him replacing Little by next summer.

Berrios is also reportedly fine now and the Jays are expecting a healthy/regular offseason.

The Bieber rumblings are just coming from the Americans that can't fathom why he'd take less money to be in (Canada) and a good environment (clubhouse, winning team) while establishing a better FA market in 2026-27.

My take is that the Jays are taking a page out of the Dodgers book where you baby the starters in the regular reason and rely on 7-10 starters until playoffs PLUS:

Gausman will be 35
Bieber is still rounding into form after TJ
Cease will be adjusting to the AL East
Yesavage lacks experience
Ponce will be dealing with a different baseball
Berrios was hurt in 2025 and hasn't been good in 2 years
Lauer doesnt seem to have the manager's trust
Francis should be a reliever
Tiedemann should be a reliever
Macko should be a reliever

This move makes sense for all the reasons mentioned. Another reason to add Cease and Ponce is that there is a lot of pitching available in free agency this off-season, and the Blue Jays will need to replenish their pitching staff after 2026, so they might as well get started now. These moves will benefit the team in 2026 and beyond.

Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield of ESPN says that the Blue Jays payroll "is now clocking in at an estimated $272 million without Bichette, up from $258 million last season (via FanGraphs), but the Blue Jays have made it clear: They want one more win in 2026 and will pay to try to get it."

Ownership is really stepping up to bolster the team. But will they go the extra mile and make the additional two moves that most of us want to see, that is, adding an impact bat and a leverage bullpen arm?

I’m going to push back a bit on what you’re saying about Berrios because it doesn’t align with his stats. Berrios had a 3.60, 3.65, and 3.75 ERA in 23,24, and first half of 25. In 2024 Berrios led the Jays in innings pitched, wins, WAR, and ERA.

Even though he has been the Jays #1 and opening day starter for long stretches I think his upside is still a #2/3 starter which he has consistently delivered on until July of last year and it seems that he was hurt or playing through pain. If he’s healthy then he has a lot of money riding on a return to form. He also, inexplicably, has received a lot of run support across his career- which I take with a grain of salt. However, he also pitches above his projections and I think Steamer and Siera are too down on him.

I do agree that all the pitchers have question marks on them. I I understand the hesitation on Berrios but I think he’s been good for so long that it would be a mistake to write him off when the team is saying he’s healthy.

I was reading some Eno Sarris comments yesterday and he underscored how front offices don't even look at ERA when analyzing pitchers. Among starters with 100+ innings, Berrios was 81/127 in batting average allowed and 83/137 in K%... He was 89/127 in HR/FB. And thats not even looking at the better Baseball Savant data- plus it was clear he lacked on out pitch... no issues getting to two strikes but he has no swing-and-miss offering. He's fine as a No. 5 starter who's can chew up some innings and allow 4-5 runs over 6 innings (with an occasional really good game against weak lineups) but he's not a Top 3 rotation guy, not even close for me... and no one is going to top the $24M he's earning in both 2027 and 2028 so he's not opting out unless he has a George Springer Renaissance.... and the club would probably have to eat $$$ to get him to $15M per to move him (if healthy).

How does that analysis apply if you take out his terrible 2nd half when presumably injured? Haven't we learned anything from Springer last year?

Berrios could bounce back. His track record suggests that this could happen. On the other hand, his age, mileage, and injury issue late last year are red flags. I would describe him as a question mark for 2026: he could be good, mediocre or bad. In any event, because of his contract structure, he’s currently untradeable (just as Springer was untradeable prior to the 2025 season). The Blue Jays will have to deploy him in 2026 and see what happens.

Agree with Mark although I also think Berrios is a fine #4 on most teams. How much would Berrios get if he were a free agent this year? MLBTR has Zach Littel getting 2/$24 and Giolito 2/$32. I'd say Berrios would be closer to Giolito... Maybe something like 3/$40, 3/$45? He's actually owed 3/$68. It's not close to impossible to move him, you'd just have to eat some money. A team like the Tigers might make sense. Need someone to eat innings, big ballpark, his brother in law is there, etc...On the other hand, Jays might just want to go Dodgers route and carry 8 guys who can start and try to keep guys healthy for playoff push and end of season. It's just a lot of money to spend on swingmen ($15M on Lauer and Ponce). It would also mean there really isn't much room in bullpen. Hoffman, Varland, Fisher, Garcia, Ponce, Lauer, and then a couple from Bastardo,Tidemann, Macko, Yariel, Nance. I guess they could still add a guy but Yariel and Bastardo can't be sent down.

Nance out of options

Berrios has an opt-out, so the team that acquires him could lose him if he does well, but would be stuck with him if he gets injured or doesn't do well. I don't see how a player in that situation would be attractive to other teams.

The chances of Berrios opting out are close to 0. He'll be owed almost 2/$50. $25M a year is basically what Cease is getting. Even if Berrios bounces back to 2023 form, it doesn't make sense for him to opt out. He would basically have to become the version of Berrios who was striking out 9 guys per 9 innings 5 years ago to even think about opting out. I think he bounces back if healthy but but not that guy.

no rush, plenty injuries happen in spring training, injuries can make teams desperate, maybe it will be a good thing the Jays didn't rush things