Thought I'd comment just so there is one. It is about as obvious and lacklustre a comment as one can make, but I'm making it anyway.

Hope tonight's outing goes better for Bieber than his last one.

Taillon, Smith and Estrada are all active for tonights game.

Let's start a winning streak.

Varsho batting cleanup.

Vladdy should have had that ball off Varsho.

Really wish they had let Kirk’s thumb have more time and run with Valenzuela in the interim. The thumb was always going to cost Kirk most of the season. He’s finally starting to look better.

Really wish they had let Kirk’s thumb have more time and run with Valenzuela in the interim. The thumb was always going to cost Kirk most of the season. He’s finally starting to look better."

Same could be said of Springer's toe. Santander's back last year too. Sometimes it's fine to give a guy an extra couple of weeks on the IL.

That play by Straw didn't bother me one bit.

That didn't borther you? He was out by about 5 feet. Didn't even get close enough to the plate to attempt a slide. Pure idiocy from a team that already can't score any runs.

Bieber is such an interesting watch right now. He’s thrown some really bad hanging breaking balls - a couple of which have been hit hard. He’s also thrown some nasty breaking balls - his SL looks better tonight than at any point since he’s come off the DL. I don’t know which direction he goes. I remain optimistic - mainly because of his age and because the truly toasty don’t generally have the sporadic high quality of pitches. #youneverknow

Kirk came back on june 12.

Since june 27 he's at a 110wrc+.

Lukes has had two great ABs in a row.

What would it take to sit Vlad for like a week. I really think best thing for him would be a minor injury and rehab in minors where he can destroy pitching and get into a groove again. This, whatever this is, is just painful.

Vlad has had three bad  ABs in a row

“Oh come on guys… the last 4 months aren’t predictive of the rest of the season. Vlad is on the verge of breaking out…” 🤦‍♂️

Has any keen observer actually identified what Vladdy’s hitting issue is this season? Is he injured, in a massive snowballing mental funk (perhaps due to being the face of the franchise, dad in the HOF, enormous contract, etc), or being pitched differently this year?

I mean, he’s a good, if not great, MLB hitter, but he looks completely outclassed at the moment.

That was a crazy throwback. Astros swinging on ball after ball against Little. Don’t know what to make of that.

Very fun game.

gotta say, if Little's problem was his confidence - these last two appearances should put a massive bandage on that wound.

Great pitch by Little to strike out Yordan with a runner on base to preserve the 3-1 lead. Tight breaking ball down and in, just off the plate.

In a way, Little has looked great the last two outings. The problem with that outing today was that if every Astos batter had simply stood at the plate and not swung he would have walked all of them, He’s such an oddity.

I don't know how the Jays could have gotten anything more from Rogers this season. He's been excellent.

Great game by Straw.
Almost manufactured 2 runs
The Trummel homerun was a new one for me.

Congratulations to Nick Frasso whose been called up to the majors. We traded him to LA in the ill-fated Mitch White deal. Looked great shortly after, then had multiple injuries and recently was flipped to Colorado for a reliever. Good luck in Coors, Nick.

Has anything been announced as to when Soriano will make his debut? Hasn't pitched since the 26th.

"Has any keen observer actually identified what Vladdy’s hitting issue is this season?"

You can see the statcast numbers at https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

and if you go down to the percentile ranks it helpfully shows you each component percentile across year for easy comparisons.

Note his fielding range is actually good as, according to these numbers, he's currently above average at the position this season (not withstanding the Varsho hit).

The big number (all of these percentiles not raw unless otherwise said) that has changed is barrel from 72-91 over past 5 years down to 37. And likely because of that the hard hit goes from 90+ to 67. He's always been bad at the LA sweet spot (because he tends to hit it too low for the optimal launch angle with more grounders than ideal), but makes up for it with the very high barrels and very high hard hits. You can see his chase percentage is also not great at 43, but you can see 2022 and 2023 were similar, so that isn't totally out of character.

However, better eye/pitch decisions might help because his chase contact raw percentage is up to 68.8% where as in 22/23 when his chase rate was similar the contact raw rate was ~59% (which is his career rate). So if he's chasing as much as he normally has, but making contact when chasing 10% more, that is more balls in play on bad pitches.

On the other hand, he generates a lot of run value on chase pitches - but that might just be he is less terrible on those than many people.

If you look at the bat tracking tab everything about his swing and stance looks normal.

So it is mostly a mystery with a little bit of bad luck and maybe a little bit of bad decisions/trying to do too much?

I think it comes down to timing.
Setting up for one pitch and then making contact on a different pitch.

You'd think though if it were a timing issue that would show up on the bat tracking information which shows timing down to the millisecond on different pitch types and 2026 and 2025 both look fairly similar for Vlad on the bat timing. But who really knows.

Is it not mostly launch angle?

It's hard for me to get over how bad most teams are. I don't know what happened but apart from the Dodgers and Yankees if they are healthy and maybe the Brewers, almost every team in baseball is extremely flawed at best. The Astros are first in the West and they put Varsho in at cleanup the first game. Jays still have a shot at the playoffs because of how weak everyone else is.

Little looks great but I was less than impressed by Bieber's start. Good run prevention but tons of baserunners and plenty of loud contact that went for outs. Astros left 11 guys on in first 6 innings. If he pitches that way, he's going to get shelled most games.

The AL is so bad that the Jays probably do still have a puncher’s chance at the last WC spot if they go on a hot streak but without Vlad at elite levels, I just don’t see how they can do that. Vlad just looks off at the plate. His stance, body language, timing, everything. Not sure that’s something that will resolve this season. It might be health or it might be something that off season tinkering is required.

maybe it isn't that every team is bad, but that we've convinced ourselves that all the jays players are bad?

Varsho is generally a league average bat, though he's a bit under that after his recent slump, and that kind of bad is not going to be a bottom of the order hitter in the average lineup.

current combined projections for our bats:


1B Guerrero 135wrc+
DH Springer 116
​C Kirk 113
3B Okamoto 112
LF Sanchez 107
RF Lukes 106
2B Clement 98
SS Gimenez 90
CF Straw 75

UT Schneider 102
IF Urias 100
UT Smith 98
C Valenzuela 81



we've hurt ourselves by ditching Varsho (projected 99wrc+), but the lineup still projects as a solidly above average offense.

At some point the projections aren’t accurate though.

I’d bet the under on Vlad and Gimenez for the rest of the year all day long.

"1B Guerrero 135wrc+
DH Springer 116
​C Kirk 113
3B Okamoto 112
LF Sanchez 107
RF Lukes 106
2B Clement 98
SS Gimenez 90
CF Straw 75"

I don't think there's a single person who would take the over on that Vlad ROS number. I'd be happy with a 115 WRC+. Either way, it's a bad lineup. I like Kirk and Springer ROS to be pretty decent and Okamoto will probably be roughly the same, but other than that, not sure there is a single hitter who I'd expect to be better than league average. Of the 8 hitters with regular ABs on the Jays in July, only 2 had WRC+ over 100 (Springer and Kirk) and only 2 have a WRC+ over 100 since June 1st (Springer and Okamoto). If you look at the whole season, Okamoto and Springer only hitters with WRC+ over 105. It's a very bad offense that is not likely to get much better.

Sanchez is a platoon bat but definitely better than average against RHP.

Dropping Vlad down in the line up will help this team do better right now. He's playing as if he has a broken wrist. His launch angle has needed to be addressed by swing mechanics for years and he's refused. He's basically the same as Alvarez except launch angle.

Thing is the projections aren't pulled out of a hat. They're literally based on the historical likeliest future performance of players of that age with that recent track record. It's possible that vladdy is fundamentally toast ay 27, but not likely.

And things can change very quickly - if you add only vlad's 89 playoff plate appearances (his most recent previous sample), he's at an even 120wrc+ over his last 541pa. That's not even a month's worth of hot streak added to this year.

"Thing is the projections aren't pulled out of a hat. They're literally based on the historical likeliest future performance of players of that age with that recent track record. It's possible that vladdy is fundamentally toast ay 27, but not likely."

They are not pulled out of a hat but they are also just computer models that essentially regress to the mean aren't really adjusted for real-world changes especially mid-season. 135 makes sense if you are a computer model regressing to mean but makes no sense if you watch Vlad or look at underlying numbers.

Just say that projections don't apply on broken players.

Which underlying numbers are you looking at for vladdy, glevin?

And do you really think your eye test is enough to conclude the best hitter in the playoffs last year is now permanently broken at age 27?

Pitching Projections rest of year:


Cease 10gms, 5.6ip/gm, 3.28era, 3.16fip, 4.5war32
Soriano 9gms, 5.8ip/gm, 3.91era, 3.76fip, 3.2war32
Yesavage 8gms, 4.9ip/gm, 4.19era, 4.12fip, 2.0war32
Bieber 8gms, 5.3ip/gm, 4.21era, 4.14fip, 2.0war32
Scherzer 9gms, 3.4ip/gm, 4.65era, 4.69fip, 1.1war32
Arrighetti 2gms, 6.5ip/gm, 4.68era, 4.72fip, 1.6war32


Varland 20gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.16era, 3.18fip, 1.3war65
Miles 20gms, 1.2ip/gm, 3.52era, 3.53fip, 1.0war65
Rogers 22gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.75era, 3.82fip, 0.6war65
Fluharty 18gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.93era, 3.95fip, 0.4war65
Fisher 18gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.00era, 4.08fip, 0.0war65
Little 16gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.79era, 3.97fip, 0.0war65
Dallas 16gms, 1.2ip/gm, 4.15era, 4.20fip, 0.0war65
Taillon 17gms, 1.9ip/gm, 4.82era, 4.78fip, 0.2war65

Tiedemann 4gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.62era, 3.78fip, 0.0war65
Garcia 6gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.73era, 3.76fip, 0.0war65
Mantiply 8gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.92era, 3.75fip, 0.0war65
Stephen 4gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.02era, 4.07fip, 0.0war65


And then a bunch of others projected for too many innings (i hope):

Brock 6gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.21era, 4.27fip, 0.0war65
Lee 11gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.33era, 4.36fip, 0.0war65
Rodriguez 10gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.33era, 4.44fip, 0.0war65
Estrada 15gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.60era, 4.52fip, 0.0war65
VanEyk 15gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.62era, 4.61fip, 0.0war65
Corbin 5gms, 1.4ip/gm, 4.84era, 4.46fip, 0.0war65

No one said “permanent”. But there is a difference between the “any day now” attitude you have confidence in, and the “not this season” attitude many others have. Just because people don’t have faith in him righting the ship in 2026 doesn’t mean he’ll be permanently bad.

Vladdy is hitting .225/.298/.305 in 322 plate appearances since May 1st, and they continue to roll him out there every day in the 2 or 3 spot in the order. It's crazy. They really need to move him to 1, 5, or 6.

"Which underlying numbers are you looking at for vladdy, glevin?

And do you really think your eye test is enough to conclude the best hitter in the playoffs last year is now permanently broken at age 27?"

I never said he was permanently broken but he's not capable of turning this around right now.

What stats am I looking at? Vs last year where he wasn't fantastic, only good,
Batting run value 9th%-24th%
XWOBA 96th%->68th%
XSLG 92%->50th%
avg exit velocity 88%->68%
Barrell % 76%-> 36%
Chase 89%->41%

In fact, just go look up his statcast and you can see everything is down. He isn't hitting the ball as hard, he is chasing the ball out of the zone, pretty much every single metric is much worse.

99 - i guess i don't understand the difference between "any day now" and "next season".

If it's reasonable to expect next season why is it unreasonable to expect next week or next month?

Bateman has a better ROS projection that Straw at this point, I really would like to lean into a platoon in CF sooner than later.

The pitching overall looks much improved for the rest of the year and into next year.

Ugly: Vlad looks completely broken at the plate right now, and has looked that way for a significant amount of time. Nobody is arguing that he is permanently broken, but this also isn't something that you can just confidently assume will fix itself this season. A computer model is just looking at his past numbers and assuming that he will get closer to those eventually, but the computer models can't visually see what he looks like at the plate. The reality is that his bat might not be fixable until the offseason.

If it's reasonable to expect next season why is it unreasonable to expect next week or next month?

Seriously? Because in the offseason there is zero pressure and he can take the time to actually figure out what is wrong with his swing. Yes, the hitting coaches are coaching him throughout the season, but this guy still needs to go out and try to win games while fans are mounting pressure on his back. If he does need a swing overhaul, this isn't something that they can just casually deploy during the season in most cases.

Glevin i think you're duplicating underlying numbers there - stats like xwoba and tbe likes are based specifically on the other actual underlying numbers you listed.

His underlying numbers are actually remarkably similar to his usual level across the board - other than barrel rate, which is half its usual level and the lowest of his career. For whatever reason, he's not barreling anything even though most every other number is normal.

His swing rates are up from last year but last year was a bigger career outlier there than this year is.

Also - the projections like zips and steamer do include statcast data.

Yeah metafour I don't see why they wouldn't be doing everything with him right now that they would be doing with him in the offseason.

If you believe Barker, they have told him and his response was to tell them to take a hike. The hope would be that he takes the time to make these adjustments in the offseason, because he is refusing to do it now

I could be imagining this, but I think over at fangraphs they've talked a lot about how YTD performance is far more sticky for rest of season performance than it is for next year's performance.

Some players can make midseason changes, some can't. I remember the Kevin Smith muscle memory admission. When they tried to change his swing to cover up a big hole, it was a disaster. His brain was thinking new swing, but his muscles couldn't let go the old swing.

The 2 I remember best were Jose and Edwin. With Jose it was midseason, with Edwin, he spent the offseason with Robby Cano's hitting coach.

Vlad's struggle this year in my opinion is very similar to Brendon Little. He's been terrible and needs to fix it. Why? Nobody knows. Well, we know but nobody knows the solution. Brendon Little wasn't throwing fastballs for strikes and didn't have the control. Presumably the coaches told him to throw more FB for strikes so opponents stopped passing on his offspeed pitches. For whatever reason he hasn't been able to do that. He's been sent down, brought back up and now, a year later looks like he could be rounding a corner.

Vlad has always had two issues with his swing. 1) he doesn't create the loft that others do which lowers his HR totals. That was always okay because he was elite pretty much everywhere else. 2) He has one of the most complicated swings in baseball with a ton of moving parts. The FO has been trying to get him to simplify his swing for many years and he has refused. After last year everyone figured out that Vlad figured it out. Then he came out of his mechanics and now he's messed up and can't lay off down and away pitches or drive some fastballs down the middle.

Vlad very much looks as lost as Brendon Little was. Not permanently but right now. Honestly if I was the coach I would move him to a different line up spot and tell him to just guess pitches and sit and wait for them.

Another big thing that isn't mentioned enough which I will add as reason #3 is lack of better bats around him. Vlad is not Junior Caminero or some other hitter that can make adjustments on the go and perform. He excels being patient and waiting for pitches...which never come when he's surrounded by a slumping line up. Opposing pitchers will continue throwing junk...so it's a vicious cycle hard for him to break out of. Imagine if he had Springer, Kirk, Bo and the rest of the line up in front and behind him performing like last year. Men on base and the pitcher with a higher pitch count and seeing Kirk and Bo on deck and in the hole and that's when Vlad gets better pitches and excels.

Robby’s Cano hitting coach aka Robby Cano’s dad!

I'd like to see Vladdy hitting leadoff for a bit. Tell him to focus on working pitchers and getting on base. He does look broken at the plate (his ABs last night were terrible) and I have no idea what the exact problem is. However, I do think Vladdy is at his best when he is being selective and not trying to hit HRs - batting leadoff might (emphasis on might) let him lean into that.

Until I see Little consistently landing pitches in the strike zone I'm not buying. Last night almost every single strike was the result of an Astros batter swinging at a ball. That was at the root of his success at the beginning of last year but it can't last. Notwithstanding that, Little has given the pen a nice little blast that it needed so kudos to him.

April Vladdy is a fine Vladdy. He wasn't hitting for power but his average and OBP was excellent, and he would've been perfect in the #1 or #2 spot as that player.

Baseball is rough. He isn't the only top hitter really struggling this year. I hope he can figure it out. He's an easy player to root for, and a great representative of this team and our identity.

"His underlying numbers are actually remarkably similar to his usual level across the board "

They're not. He has the highest whiff % of his career, He has the highest chase rate of his career and he has the highest contact rate on chasing in his career which shows that he is swinging at pitches he shouldn't and putting weak swings (Highest weak contact of career) on them so "he's similar to his usual level except his swing decisions are the worst of his career and his swing outcomes are the worst of his career".

The only thing I can think of is someone got in his head to try and hit more HRs and it messed him up like it messed Olerud up for a while. But you'd think there'd be  all I got. signs of that. That or secret injury + pressing is all I got. 

"Is it not mostly launch angle?"

No. His launch angle is not great, but it is "normal" for him. This year his tilt is 28 degrees versus 32 mlb average, but his last 3 years are 28 degrees, 29 degrees, and 27 degrees so 2026 is normal. His Attack angle is 1 degrees versus mlb average of 10 degrees, but his last 3 years are 2 degrees, 3 degrees, and last year 1 degree so 2026=2025 and is again normal for him. His Attack Direction is 4 degree pull against MLB average 2 degree pull, but his last 3 years are 5 degree pull, 0 degree pull, and 4 degree pull last year so again 2026=2025 and normal for him. His ideal attack angle percentage (the amount between 5 degree and 20 degree) is 31.8 against a mlb average of 50.9 but again the last 3 years are 29.0, 37.4, and 30.4 so he's normal for him slightly better than 2025. His average bat speed is 76.3 mph versus mlb average 71.7, but his last 3 years are 75.4, 75,8, and 76.7 so 76.3 is basically normal for him again.

So again the pieces of his swing are normal for him. The big change is in barrel percentage (normally 11.5 percent in career and 13.8 and 12.2 the last two years down to just 6.7 lowest in career; 7.6 is mlb average and he's never been below 8.4 before and since 2021 never been below 11.1). The tiny changes are marginally more chase percentage (chase about 4% more than normal at 31.3% versus 27.3% career), decent more chase contact percentage (chase contact 9% higher at 68.2% versus 59.1%), and marginal *less* whiff percentage (about 3%, 20.3 versus 23.5% lifetime). His swing percent is only about 1% over lifetime, and lower than some seasons, and his zone contact percentage is also the highest he's ever had about 2% above career norms, but only 1% above 2024. His zone percentage is about 2 percent below normal, but not his lowest in career, 2nd lowest to 2019.

So again he very slightly swings more at marginally out of zone pitches and marginally less at in zone pitches, but makes decently more contact on out of zone pitches, but the quality of contact in terms of barrel is much poorer, but in terms of launch angle, bat speed, pull direction, timing is all 100% normal for him (with the note that normal for him is a lower launch angle than ideal).

Jeff Hoffman had zero experience or track record as a closer, and the Jays were so stubborn about him being in that role that it literally cost them the World Series, and before that almost the division (he had a -1.1 WAR from May-Sept and was the worst RP in the league). Vlad is a franchise icon now. As long as he is not on the IL, he's going to bat 2nd or 3rd even if it costs them any chance of competing this season (and you could argue he's the singular biggest reason for that now given how much he's paid and what the expectations were for him). They are going to stubbornly keep him in the exact same spot, for better or worse. We just have to hope it's for the better, but that's getting more and more far fetched as the season continues.

Thanks Michael. Great info!

I’m not sure if this is encouraging or not.

"it literally cost them the World Series"

I agree with the general sentiment that they were stubborn in sticking with him as the closer, but A) he was having a great post-season, and B) three other relievers also gave up a run in Game 7.

Yeah, Vlad's contact vs barrel. Just watching him, so many times he gets hittable pitches almost middle middle and  he's fouling them off.  Happens occasionally to the best hitters if they are sitting on a totally different pitch, but with Vad it seems every game, sometimes multiple times. Now the count is in the pitchers favour and he's chasing to stay alive. 

and the Jays were so stubborn about him being in that role that it literally cost them the World Series.

This is such an absurd statement. Hoffman put up a 1.46 ERA/ 1.91 xERA/ 2.73 FIP in the Playoffs and was integral in the Jays closing out both the Yankees AND Mariners to even get to the WS. He was by far their best reliever in the postseason. Jays fans seem to have poor memory as they don't seem to remember that Varland was actually kind of crap in the postseason. That was mainly because he was overused into the ground, but Hoffman pitched just 2.1 innings less than him for the second highest usage of any relief pitcher in the postseason, and was considerably sharper.

In reality, Hoffman was completely locked in until that one pivotal mistake pitch, and there was no one else on the roster who was a better option than him at that point in the season. What is even more funny is that Hoffman had massive HR issues throughout the regular season in 2025, but that had normalized to the tune of a 0.73 HR/9 in those 12.1 postseason innings. Varland on the other hand was a complete launching pad: he put up a 2.45 HR/9 in the postseason (which is TERRIBLE). His FIP was 5.25.

Yeah Glevin you're right about O-swing and O-contsct, but without deterioration that maybe speaks more to swing decisions than the swing itself.

You could move vladd around to try and get him going but tbh he hasn't actually "deserved" a demotion really. He's around league average like the rest of the lineup, bht has the highest obp on the team. The leadoff suggestion i don't mind - it would hopefully get his mind back to contact instead of power. I still get annoyed about hearing him talk about "changing his swing for more power" early in the year when he was actually hitting great despite the lack of power.


I wonder if part of the O-swing issues is pitchers just not throwing him many strikes with the lack of other true threats in the lineup?

Hoffman and tbe manager kinda lucked out in the playoffs because most of his usage even as closer came in not particularly high lev or close score situations....until game 7 that is.

The Hoffman playoff brilliance narrative is not accurate, at least without the proper context. These were the scores during the playoffs when Hoffman was brought into the game:

ALDS
Game 1: 10-1
Game 5: 5-1

ALCS
Game 1: 1-3
Game 4: 8-2
Game 6: 6-2
Game 7: 4-3

World Series
Game 2: 1-3
Game 3 5-5
Game 5 6-1
Game 7: 4-3

In other words, the Jays outscored their opponents 50-24 if you just add up RS/RA when Hoffman entered the game. There were 2 save situations (both Game 7's), one he was great and the other he obviously blew. Then there was the 2 innings against the Dodgers in Game 3 when the score was tied. Literally three outings in the entire post season where the team was either leading by 3 runs or less, or the game was tied.

Also, from 5/1/25 to the end of the regular season:

-1.1 WAR, 5.30 ERA, 5.95 FIP, 2.39 HR/9, 4.44 BB/9, 7 blown saves

Anyone who suggests that keeping Hoffman in that role all season was not a detriment to the team (especially considering they just barely won the division) is not being sincere.

I'm not one of those people who blames Hoffman alone for Game 7. It was a whole series of events (if anything, the managing in Game 3 was worse than anything else) but the team was absolutely stubborn about their usage with Hoffman last season.

For more than 3 months Vladdy has been the 2nd worst regular on the team and nowhere close to league average.

2nd worst regular at the plate, I should have said. He's been by far the worst regular, and a below REPLACEMENT LEVEL player. He is absolutely killing the team.

When we change the graphic at the top of this site (if it's changed) can we also change Vlad's photo to one which isn't a picture of him after a strikeout? At least that's what I think of when I look at the photo. I get this is volunteer site-run work and I am grateful for the originators so please don't take this the wrong way.

Blaming Hoffman for being the big villain costing the Jays the WS is just silly and has always been silly. Not one of the 5 biggest culprits on the team. Bassit, Yesavage, and Bieber also all gave up runs in relief. Even in just that game, the Jays went 3-17 with RISP. Look at the 4 Jays losses. Hoffman went 3 IP with 1 ER. Lukes, Varsho, and Gimenez all went 2/19 in those games. Varsho left like a billion runners on in game 7. Kirk hit into a DP. Lukes swung at a pitch way out of the zone in game 3. Why doesn't anyone blame Lukes?

well we can have fun with selected recent samples all we want.

in July our hitters went:

Springer 69pa 147wrc+
Kirk 67pa 115wrc+
Vlad 96pa 108wrc+
Okamoto 96pa 93wrc+
Clement 103pa 91wrc+
Lukes 88pa 86wrc+
Varsho 87pa 35wrc+
Gimenez 64pa 34wrc+

and the part time guys

Clase 25pa 153wrc+
Valenzuela 35pa 61wrc+
Urias 30pa 51wrc+
Keys 29pa 42wrc+
Pinango 32pa 37wrc+
Schneider 12pa 36wrc+
Straw 39pa 30wrc+

A bunch of great names just hit the market for Atkins to investigate and invest in:

Andrew McCutchen
Austin Gomber
Jorge Soler
Matt Strahm
Mitch Garver
Rob Refsnyder
Ryan Watson

Lotta great character guys in there that can bring some serious competition to the AAAA tier of the Blue Jays.

I think people blame Hoffman more there because a) he was terrible all season and b) some middling hitters not hitting against the Dodgers super elite pitching is different than our closer giving up the game inning homer to their #9 hitter (a bench player).

Nobody is arguing that other hitters deserve to be in the middle of the order more though, we recognize they all suck. The point is to try and snap Vladdy out of his funk.

The bullpen currently has 3 long relievers in it - Taillon, Dallas, and Estrada, and they each need work they're unlikely to get with Cease on the bump tonight. It would be nice if the offense showed up for a game and allowed their usage.

Atkins is talking right now about Vladdy's problem. It's refreshing actually. Essentially he said that he's at fault (Atkins) and the team hasn't done a good enough job to support Vlad both on the field and in his approach. He conceded that Vlad is under a lot of pressure and although there are not a lot of stark differences to Vlad year over year there are a lot of subtle changes which they think have accumulated and created bad tendencies which he is trying to correct on the fly.

Asked if it's a priority to add offense to the team this summer for Vlad he reverted to corporate speak.

i thought manager said Taillon was in the rotation, which is weird, cuz that means a 6 man rotation just to get Taillon in for some reason.

Don't think Soriano has been activated and may not be until his 1st start tomorrow or Thursday. At least one of Dallas Estrada will be going down to Buffalo.

what dalimon was saying...


Sportsnet 590 The FAN
@FAN590
·
4m
"It's been disappointing that we haven't been able to provide the right support... We have an understanding of the subtle differences; there's no alarming concern."

Ross Atkins chats with
@SNJeffBlair
and Kevin Barker about his confidence in Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

"i thought manager said Taillon was in the rotation"

At least once. Soriano speculated he might start Friday. Gausman's turn would have fallen on Thursday and while they might not start Tallion against his former team they'd need him before Friday.

Soriano has been activated and Estrada sent down.

Glad that they have kept Dallas up. One minor goal for the rest of this year should be to see if they have any internal options for mid leverage/multi inning bullpen arms for next year. He'd be my first choice of the AAA candidates.

Taillon pitching tomorrow vs Astros (Wed)
Cease pushed back a day

Jays will go with a six man rotation, for now.

Cease vs Gausman

Cubs manager Craig Counsell told reporters on Tuesday that both Gausman and the newly acquired Clay Holmes will pitch in their fresh threads over the weekend as Chicago visits the Kansas City Royals.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/kevin-gausman-to-make-cubs-debut-vs-royals-not-blue-jays/

Smart. Gaus woulda thrown that game to us.

Has anyone heard how the money worked out in the Gaus/Taillon deals. Between the 2, there was over $12.5 million owing. The closer to that number the Cubs are paying, the more sense the paltry prospect return makes.

The Cubs picked up all of Gausman’s contract, because the Jays chose to dump his salary and run a 6-man rotation with Taillon instead.

Michael: "His Attack angle is 1 degrees versus mlb average of 10 degrees, but his last 3 years are 2 degrees, 3 degrees, and last year 1 degree so 2026=2025 and is again normal for him."

Vladdy and Varsho both chop wood with their swings. Their back elbows get high in their loads and then their front elbows don't get high enough when their front feet land so their bat barrels are not remotely level through the zone. Thus their bats go through the hitting zone on a downward trajectory. It seems the only way they can hit the ball HARD in the air is to catch the ball way out in front of the plate when their bats are on the upswing. Both have not been hitting any fastballs belt high or above for the entire season. It seems that pitchers know this and just pound them up with velo and down and away with slow stuff (nothing down and in as that's the only place woodchoppers can get to early and get the ball in the air hard). Varsho had a 4 degree drop off this season on his average attack angle. Also lost many homers. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Surely the coaching staff can see this. If they and the coaching staff know that the only way for them to get the ball hard in the air on fastballs is to be way early, why haven't adjustments been made. The woodchopping has become extreme this year. His 1-degree bat attack angle (see Baseball Savant's bat tracking data) has hit a low (even for him) compared to sluggers like Ohtani and Soto who have bat attack angles in the double digits.

On Baseball Savant you can look at bat tracking data visually. Combining bat attack angle on the horizontal axis and attack swing path tilt on the vertical axis shows what an outlier Vladdy's swing is.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/bat-tracking?vizX=attack_angle&vizY=avg_plane_vertical_angle

Batters are all different - I get that. But should fans just accept that Vlad is not a HR hitter and is more a 15-20 HR kind of guy until this woodchopping is acknowledged and adjusted (either the frontside mechanics or lower half timing)? Maybe we should appreciate that he is most likely a 15-20HR guy with .290/.375/.475 kind of guy. That would be an extremely valuable guy in the 2-hole. Not a Hall of Famer but perhaps the best he can consistently be. I'd enjoy watching that. Interesting that Bo also has a very low average swing attack angle but differs from Vladdy in that his swing path tilt is polar opposite to Vladdy.

That's not good. Hopefully, something small.

No, we should not be pleased, and someone should literally hold a gun to his head and force a swing change. It is inconceivable to have a guy who can hit the ball with 118+ MPH EV and to have him dicking around with a line drive "all fields approach" swing to the tune of $500M.

The front office and staff have to know this, but I get the impression that Guerrero does what he wants to do and there is no telling him otherwise. Just like how the HR Jacket disappeared for a while after a large portion of the team got sick of it, and then it seemed like he pouted his way into it making a comeback. Its really just him and a few of his LA buddies who care about that thing.

The Tampa Bay Rays have piss-poor overall team power this season, but they are at 66 wins because their lone superstar hitter who possesses elite power goes up to the plate and tries to hit HR's.

Perhaps Vladdy is a very expensive Yandy Diaz. They are the most similar on this, rather non-scientific, ave. attack angle & ave swing path tilt plane.

I can imagine that Vladdy is worried about hitting HRs which his swing attack angle is not "designed" to do. He hits HRs when he is "on time" to lift the ball which, for his swing, means hitting the ball way out front. He can still hit hard line drives if he is not "on time" to lift the ball on the upswing of his bat path.

As his swings are so fast, as long as he's catching the ball mostly on the level, he'll create high rates of backspin to give the ball natural line drive carry. That's probably why many of his home runs are line drive missiles rather than the traditional rainbow-path bombs.

I worry that he has accommodated wishes for him to hit 40 HRs. Perhaps this has cause him to force a mindset of hitting all pitches out in front of the plate. Then he becomes susceptible to all sorts of chasing issues (which these days like come on sliders and sweepers). Next he starts worrying about chasing and is late on fastballs. A few mechanical tweaks to deal with "timing" and he's all messed up with new in-built muscle memory problems.

If he's just happy to hit .290-.300 with 15-20 HRs, we might actually see more missiles go over the fence and there will be some seasons of 30 HRs just by random variation.

Whatever is the fix, I don't want to see more first pitch groundouts. His PAs have become fast forwards during my dinner time viewing.

Dallas threw 74 pitches tonight, Little pitched for the second night in a row, not well, and the bullpen is short one man due to having six starting pitchers.

The pen might need reinforcements.

But Estrada just went down and can't come back unless Yesavage goes on the IL. Van Eyk threw four innings tonight. Bloss is on the IL. That leaves Chase Lee and John Klein. One of them could be up by Thursday.

This team can win fairly often when the pitching holds the opposition to 2 or less runs. Unfortunately, IIRC, the average teams scores something like 4.x runs per game. MOST teams win fairly often when only giving up 2 runs. Most teams also win more than a handful of games even when giving up 3, 4 or 5 runs, which seems entirely beyond our current offense. 

OTOH - can we clone Myles Straw and play every game in Houston?

This fully looks like a team that could put up another 25 or 30 inning scoreless streak sometime before the year is out.

Don't know if anyone noticed (or cares) but Jacob Waguespack is back in the majors. Doing some outstanding smoke and mirrors with the Tigers.

He's at 21.2 IP in 17 games. A scoreless inning tonight lowered his ERA to 1.66. His primary weapon has been a .123 BABIP (eat your heart out Hoffman). This helps give him the unique distinction of having a sub-2 ERA/negative WAR at FG.

"But should fans just accept that Vlad is not a HR hitter"

Yes. I think even in his good seasons Vlad is not a traditional HR hitter. He isn't a traditional slugger. The traditional HR hitter strikes out a lot, flys the ball a lot, and hits lots of HR. Vlad is more a ground ball/line drive hitter who hits really well, and also happens to generate extreme bat speed and EV, so many more than "normal" of his few fly balls and many line drives carry for HR or make the gap for doubles, as do the GB that make it through the infield.

Look at Raleigh (1.15 K/G) or Olson (1.02 K/G). They both strike out more than once a game and both have higher FB% than league average and lower GB% than average. Similar Judge (1.2 K/G). Even someone like Alvarez who is better at limiting the strikeouts to less than one a game (like 0.82 a game) still has the lower GB% than average and higher FB% than average. Vlad's strikeout rate is like 0.65 a game and he's the opposite of all these guys with higher GB% than league average and lower FB% than league average.

This doesn't mean Vlad will not hit HR. I think expecting him to be in the 25-30 range most seasons is fair, and among active players with min 3000 PA he's 48th in terms of AB per HR (so he hits a HR every 21.86 AB). Judge is 1st at 11.22, Alvarez T4th is at 13.96, Olson is T8th at 15.46, Raleigh doesn't meet the PA cutoff (2807 PA so 193 short) but he's at 14.91 and would be 7th. Note if Vlad gets 601 AB in a season at that current rate that would put him at 27.5 exactly in the middle of that 25-30 range.

So sure you could wish cast and say wouldn't Vlad be great if he kept everything good about him but changed to have a better attack angle/launch angle and switched to hitting more FB% than MLB average and less GB% than MLB average. If he could do that, he may well be the best hitter in baseball or at least in the easy top 3. Heck in 2021 he only got part of the way to there with his highest FB% (still less than MLB average) and second lowest GB% (still more than MLB average) and he was basically one of the top 3 hitters in the game and hit 48 HR. But it isn't clear if he changed his swing path radically to change the GB/FB he would keep everything else.

Ugly one, are you still taking the over on Vlad’s projection?

I actually think he’s getting worse lately… which seems impossible

Yeasavage is getting an MRI. We just can’t have nice things this year.

Vlad's launch angle is a whole other thing. If he fixed that, he'd be Yordan Alvarez. Even without launching the ball, he was a very good hitter. The problem is that he isn't hitting the ball hard and is making poor swing decisions. A 135 WRC+ wasn't as good as could have been but a 95 WRC+ is pathetic.

Fangraphs did not like the Jays threading the needle strategy and I get why. (Also, agreeing Cubs trade was super light) My biggest concern ROS is that the Jays are going to miss the playoffs by like 4 games. Missing the playoffs by not much but not being that close is one of the worst things you can do. Either make the playoffs or finish near the bottom and get picks and prospects and let young guys play. I'd like for the Jays to either make a run (preferable) or go on a losing streak. Right now, how many of the current Jays lineup will be starting players with the team next year? I'd say all of the IF (Unfortunately) and none of the OF or DH. I'd much rather see what Brett Bateman and Jay Harry can do out there than watching Straw, Lukes, Schneider, and Sanchez play mediocre baseball. Yes, fans want to see a winning product but we'd much rather see young players on a losing team than the same veterans. Get Vlad on IL to give him time to fix his back or whatever is bothering him. Give Sean Keys some regular ABs, etc...

Agreed Glevin. These last two months of the season should have been an audition for 2027 roles, much like the end of 2024 was. The worst offense in the league being carried by maybe slightly better pitching (depending on what you think of Soriano vs Gausman) is not going to change much of anything as long as Vlad’s OPS starts with a 6. There are way too many holes in this lineup, today and going forward, to just keep chugging along with status quo. They need to hit on someone unexpectedly. Maybe Clase gets a lot of playing time down the stretch and figures something out. Or Keys, or whoever. Probably not but they need that. Clement, Straw, Lukes, and Gimenez are what they are. If anything they might get worse moving forward (age), not better.

The 2023 was super frustrating to watch because of how bad the offense looked most nights but at least that team was good. A bad team with a bad offense is unwatchable. This offense in 2027 will begin and end with which Vlad shows up but they need a lot of help besides him as well.

If you look at 2024, What kids got opportunities after the deadline?
Horwitz who got traded a few months later.
Clement and Lukes who weren't  kids.
Barger didn't show anything that year. Nor did Loperfido. Nor did Clase.

I'm totally fine with keeping Springer and trying to win games.
Fangraphs be damned.

Someone will get a call when the roster expend.

"If you look at 2024, What kids got opportunities after the deadline?
Horwitz who got traded a few months later.
Clement and Lukes who weren't kids.
Barger didn't show anything that year. Nor did Loperfido. Nor did Clase."

It's not about being kids, it's about giving guys who haven't had opportunities, a chance to play. So Horwitz looked great. Jimenez looked really good. Guys like Lukes and Clement played and showed enough to be given more time in 2025. Barger struggled but struggles can help young players long-term make changes. I'm not saying you just sit every veteran, but Jays were left were too many after deadline so there really isn't any room for young guys to play. They should have moved either Sanchez or Straw or Lukes or more than one. Instead, we're just going to watch 3 mediocre OFs play everyday for the rest of the year. Why?

Now, Jays don't have a ton of guys deserving of major league looks but they have a few. What's the point of running veterans out there every day and winning 76 games? What do you accomplish?

The Jays are 4 games out of a playoff spot. They are not out of the race.

They are 4 games out, but they also have the 7th worst record.

I would like to see Kasevich get some reps, same with Bateman and Schreck (if he ever gets off the IL), same with Clase.

They're four out but they also have to jump six teams to get into a spot. Also they haven't scored all season. I just don't see it happening.

I wouldn't expect a lineup revolution next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Springer return on a better contract.

I'm sure they'll try to swing a trade or two for a big bat somewhere but it'll be tough.

There's also the fact that none of the 23-26yr old guys in AAA that people want to see are likely to be more than average hitters anyways, if that. And they're not particularly young either (especially given that we have a bunch of 27-29yr old regulars that people want to ditch as they're veterans past their peak already.

Smith gets the start today at the hot corner with Okamoto moving to first. They must think he's better there than 2B.

The Jays are 4 games out of a playoff spot. They are not out of the race.

You guys keep clinging on to this flawed "games back" argument which is a complete mirage. Their FanGraphs playoff odds are back down to 4.2% after having risen to ~9% after that St. Louis series. What you don't realize is that going on stretches where they win 2-out-of-3 isn't enough at this point, and those stretches are immediately wiped away once they lose ~2 in a row. This team is sufficiently far back such that they need a 9-1 type stretch to actually have any sort of chance moving forward.

Games back tells you how many games back of a playoff spot the team is, it certainly is not a mirage regardless of what you read on Fangraphs.

If the Jays win 2 out of every 3 the rest of the way, they will make the playoffs.

If the Jays win every game, they may end up the best record in the league.

They very likely would, hypobole, presuming you meant the American League (and that the Rays don't get hot).

Right now the Jays really need a hot streak to have a good shot at the playoffs - 8 of 10 would help, 10 in a row more so.

I think this FO will sign another starter in free agency and have Cease, Soriano, Yesavage, Ponce, Berrios and Arrighetti. They might sign 2. Think Chris Bassitt types who can be solid 4-5 starters.

That would allow them to trade from Miles, Perry, Tiedemann, King and Stanifer to acquire that elusive controllable good position player who can hit top 4 in the line up. I'm not advocating to trade them all but using 1-3 of them to acquire 2 bats or at least 1.

Think:

They sign Brandon Lowe, sign Gausman back 1 season, sign Springer to 1 year, trade prospects for a hitter, sign 2 more starters and 2 more relievers. I can't see them finding a legit bat any other way.

I mean, today's lineup has WRC+ of 98, 108, 103, 106, 103, 64, 100, 73, 76. The starter has a FIP of 6.73. I don't know why people think this team is about to go on some sort of run. They have 0-2 good hitters, a bunch of bad hitters, mediocre fielding, one elite starter, one very good starter and a pretty decent bullpen.

“ If the Jays win 2 out of every 3 the rest of the way, they will make the playoffs.”

There are 48 games left. Winning 2/3 means 32 more wins. That would get them to 85. That might be enough, but I have an easier time seeing Minny, Cleveland, or Detroit getting there before us.

I haven't seen anybody suggest in here that this team is about to go on a run. What I do see is people telling others what they don't realize, which I find hilarious.

I have no idea why merely stating the fact that the Jays are 4 games back of a playoff spot riles people up so much. We all can see how many teams are between them and that playoff spot, and how bad the team has been playing.

From 8/1/24 to end of the season:

Horwitz: 200 PA, 133 wRC+, 1.1 WAR
Clement: 204 PA, 92 wRC+, 1.0 WAR
Jimenez: 141 PA, 124 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
Wagner: 82 PA, 137 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
Lukes: 91 PA, 132 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
Barger: 142 PA, 75 wRC+, -0.1 WAR
Francis: 59.1 IP, 1.52 ERA (!!), 1.4 WAR

That doesn't include extended looks at pitchers like Little who ended up contributing to the 2025 team. Not all the players above panned out, and some are not with the Jays anymore, but it was still worthwhile to get a look at them. Clement and Lukes in particular benefitted from this. Barger got his feet wet before becoming someone the following season. Horwitz is probably still on the team if he wasn't a 1B.

Maybe giving extended time to Bateman, Kasevich, McAdoo, Clase, Keys, etc, isn't going to amount to anything, but look at the current lineup along with age and future projections. Status quo might actually be worse.

Looking ahead to next year, it seems to me that there are very specific priorities:

1. a power hitter, preferably RH
2. replace Hoffman
3. a CF preferably with the skills to bat leadoff

4. To a lesser degree add a more predictable SP

On #1 - sign Seyu Suzuki. You'll have to pay a lot more than he's worth because only he and Arozarena fit that mold among free agent outfielders. But you can afford it.

2. Sign Morejon. Again, money is no object.

3. Damn if I know. If they can't develop that out of someone already in the system (Clase, Bateman, ??) then this will be an incredible challenge.

4. Cease, Soriano, Yesavage, Ponce, Arregheti, Miles is a good foundation with a fair crop of guys (Francis when he recovers, Bloss, etc) in reserve but I'd guess they would like a guy they could slide in at #4 to lengthen that out - and it might very easily end up being Bieber.

That CF issue though is pretty massive.

Yesavage to the IL with knee inflammation.

Dallas optioned.

Chase Lee and Lazaro Estrada back in the majors.

Re the deadline

No one truly answered my question about Taillon/Gausman. 92-93 did point out the Cubs took on the entirety of Guasman's contract. But Taillon's? Haven't heard a thing. If the Cubs are paying Taillon's contract as well, the paltry return makes more sense.

One thing Ben Clemons at FG did not like was the Jays payed for 3 Soriano playoff runs, when realistically they only have 2. On a superfluous level he's correct. But 2 things -

1) where would we be able to get a starter of Soriano's calibre in the off season for the amount of money we will have to pay him?

2) realistically be damned. 92-93 is far from alone in his "we can still do it" attitude. And although Jays are not run by the marketing department it's obvious they have a big say. Most teams don't own their own broadcasts. If viewership plummets because they fire sale, it's no skin off their ass. But the Jays have the largest TV audience in MLB. through Sportsnet. If they can "fake contend" as long as possible, it will definitely positively impact the bottom line. Which to any owner is kind of a big deal.

As per Mitch Bannon, "Chicago is sending some cash to pay down a portion of Taillon’s remaining 2026 salary."

Thanks

Not sure why the sellers here aren't more furious at the team right now tbh after the jays worsened their farm this deadline.

Dave Laurila interviewed Kevin Gausman in late July. It's excellent.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-new-cub-kevin-gausman-fandom-goes-both-ways/

Not sure why the sellers here aren't more furious at the team right now tbh after the jays worsened their farm this deadline.

Because we are mature adults with a modicum of common sense.

"But Taillon's? Haven't heard a thing"

Cubs sent $5 million (don't remember who reported it)

I haven't liked Okamoto's defence at 3rd recently. He started the year poorly, then definitely seemed to take a step forward over the summer and now is tailing off. Not sure where he ends up on the defensive spectrum.

Okamoto cost them the game yesterday with a play not made. His -2 OAA and -1 DRS feels about right.

I think those numbers feel right for the season but I'm not convinced that that is where he shakes out over the long term. His bat is probably good enough to carry slightly below average defence and slow on the bases but probably not good enough to carry poor defence.

why is this guy starting for us again?

Because Cease needed an extra day.

It wouldn't matter if Skubal was pitching for this team right now. They can't even hit the ball past the infield.

That’s not true! Okamoto hit it past the infield in the 4th!

The lineup is 1) not good enough to go on a run, and 2) giving us no new information as far as who can possibly be a 2027 contributor. This isn't going for it or conceding the season. I don't know what it is, but it's not ideal. If this is their plan from now until the end of the season then it's going to be a long two months.

sorry guys they tied it up. that sucks.

"It can change that quickly. Jesus Sanchez with a two-run homer, swinging on three and oh!"

giving us no new information as far as who can possibly be a 2027 contributor.

On the list of FO priorities, I can't see "giving fans new information about next year" as anywhere but right near the bottom.

Spencer Houdini

that was pretty nails, spencer!

They may not have Vladdy but they have Spencer Miles. That was about as impressive as it gets for a relief pitcher. A real weapon down there.

so we picked up the only knuckleballer in baseball, Matt Waldron.

which probably means nothing.

more interestingly, they moved Corbin to the 60 day DL, which means his year is done and likely his jays career too.

Waldron sucks. The White Sox DFAd Austin Hayes today which would be worth the claim to pair with Sanchez in a platoon. RH outfielders with that skill set aren't so common anymore

Home runs are a lot more fun.

boom.

Stay on the bus, Bauxites.

please bring varland back out.

“Ernie with a drive…Clement puts a dent!”

Oh no is coach trying to lose.

Life!

Never in doubt. Great series win.

Lol what an escape.

Have a chance to be 3gms back tonight.

And a thing about streaks - the jays haven't even been playing all that well and are on an 8-5 (.615) streak. If they keep that up the rest of the way they get to 82-80 and that's a good chance at the wildcard.

What about that?
That Straw dude isn't half bad.
And hustle is always good to see.

I've missed this feeling, however fleeting it might be

Maybe as a tribute to '24 Bo the Jays will go on a tear the last 2 months of the season after being mediocre for the first 4.

Pulled that one out. Some great relief pitching. As tempting as it might be to move Miles to rotation, maybe shutdown reliever is better place. Who knows? Fantastic deke tag by Gimenez at 2B too.

Alvarez basically flinched and missed the bag.

i think he might have craped it with his toe on the way down....but more important is HE wasn't sure he touched it and dragged his toe forward to touch the bag after he was tagged, and the ump saw it.

Mets up 2 zip in the fourth. Jays could be 3 back in an hour or two. Hard to believe.

Let me repeat my claim that we should be opting for the $8M option on Straw this offseason. I still don't think we should be starting him on a playoff caliber team, but you could certainly do worse than him as a 4th/5th OF that plays 1-2 games a week (and fills in at CF if the CF is injured).

How weak was Gausman trade? Fangraphs lists prospects they got as #70 and #72 moved at deadline. Clay Holmes got the #5 prospect, Casey Mize got the #12 prospect, Peralta #14 and #22, Kremer #17, etc... Prospect rankings are rough, but really feels like a horrible misstep by the Jays trading Gausman too early and for not nearly enough. Very hard to unseratand what Jays were thinking beyond being obsessed with high contact guys.

If the Jays get closer in the WC race but Vlad keeps being a black hole at what point do the Jays remove him from the lineup.

Not happening kid, as Schneider would say.

Waldron is out of options, so should replace Chase Lee or Estrada tomorrow.

It will be interesting.
Walker was Dickie's pitching coach.
Waldron has a few pitches but only the cutter is decent.
Does framing helps with knuckle balls?
How much do the catchers need to practice with him?

"How weak was Gausman trade? Fangraphs lists prospects they got as #70 and #72 moved at deadline. Clay Holmes got the #5 prospect, Casey Mize got the #12 prospect, Peralta #14 and #22, Kremer #17, etc... Prospect rankings are rough, but really feels like a horrible misstep by the Jays trading Gausman too early and for not nearly enough. Very hard to unseratand what Jays were thinking beyond being obsessed with high contact guys."

Only thing that may make sense but I am not sure how realistic it might have been if is the Jays had a formula where if Springer and Bieber were also traded then it would have gotten their luxury tax total low enough to remove the draft penalty which is why they might have asked Cubs to pay all of Gausman's salary. May also explain why 2 days later they paid Hoffman's salary to Minnesota (or a portion) since they knew by that point they wouldn't get the draft penalty removed anyways since no biters for Bieber/Springer or trades vetoed.

Glevin i think the only thing that explains it is that they disagree very very strongly with the scouting reports that claim both the prospects have very little defensive potential.

Bo with the game winning rbi!

Jays are 3gms out of a playoffs spot.

Minnesota loses.

Cleveland loses.

Baltimore wins.

Det/Sea ongoing.

3 games back.

3GB, but Gausman traded and Yesavage on the 15-day IL. Guess just keep battling and hope to scrape into WC3 position and Yesavage back before the playoffs.

"Glevin i think the only thing that explains it is that they disagree very very strongly with the scouting reports that claim both the prospects have very little defensive potential."

If they are elite defenders, then they will have value but elite defender is very rare especially when scouts don't think it's there. If Bateman is a solid defender, I think you're looking at Myles Straw sort of player with maybe better offense and less speed/worse fielding? For Southisene, maybe Nassim Nunez with better hitting and worse fielding? The problem isn't the defensive profile, the problem is the offensive profile. Just 0 power means it's very very hard to be a major leaguer and even if they do make it, what's the upside? Not high. The guy the Mets got from the Cubs for Clay Holmes is 21 in AA with a 114 WRC+, good power and speed. Sure, he might fail, but he has a chance to be a good everyday major leaguer and if it breaks right, a star. Why would you choose to get a couple of guys who might be utility players over a potential star? The value is just so off.

The other option is that they treated Gausman as if he had 10+5 rights and it was the Cubs that Gausman was prepared to go to.

Imagine the Jays trading for Soriano and Detmers and giving up Nimmala for the former and then Cutter Coffey and John Kasevich for the latter. It makes no sense. It's such an enormous difference in value. (and its not just Holmes. I like the guy the Jays got for Tommy Nance as much as the guys they got Gausman! )

agreed with all that about their offense glevin. they'll be hard pressed to even be league average guys there.

but those fangraphs grades in particular are drastically effected by the fact that they give them both bad to very bad defensive grades, when i've read some scouting reports speak pretty glowingly about their defensive, and both seem to have played well defensively this year even while exclusively playing CF and SS respectively.

I disagree a bit about defensive prospect grades - i have never found them very reliable tbh. I've seen plenty of good defensive prospects turn out to be terrible defensive players and vice versa. Recent example would be wyatt langfor who was ranked terribly defensively but has been pretty awesome with the glove so far. but in our case i don't even think it's true that the scouting grades are universially bad for these prosepcts - just that their fangraphs defensive grades are particularly weak.

3 games back is not far at all. But boy do we need Vlad to figure out how to be his playoff self, or even his 21-25 self. It is funny how the Tigers and O's both appeared to throw in the towel but are still in the race too. Weird snail race for that 3rd WC.

Ponce (I think) on one of the radio shows was describing Bateman and... was also describing Straw. Note for note. Most likely outcome (in this evaluator's opinion) is that he's Straw 2.0

Which has value in a vacuum but...

He seemed to think Southisene might have a touch more ceiling but that's not saying a whole lot. He didn't say it but maybe a Jon Berti type in terms of roster value at the top end?

I believe Milwaukee and the White Sox were on Gausman's limited no-trade list that was reported before the trade deadline. Not sure if the Brewers would have been interested anyway (his price tag alone probably scares them off), but the White Sox were certainly in on starting pitching. Taking those 2 teams out at least partially limited the team's options. So it's certainly possible the Jays catered to what Gausman wanted at least to some degree, though I don't think that excuses the return they got. I hope they are right about Bateman and Southisene but Myles Straw upside is not what you want to hear about a prospect you just got back in a trade.

A left handed Straw is better than a right handed Straw.
You're closer to first base by a step when you bat left.

You guys remember Ottis Nixon batting lead off for the Braves?
He was 33 at that point and had a little bit more pop.
In his 3 years in Montreal he hit 1 HR.
He played 17 years with a 77 OPS+.

If the defense is good, high OBP with base stealing has value.

but those fangraphs grades in particular are drastically effected by the fact that they give them both bad to very bad defensive grades

What? No they're not. Fangraphs has both of their future fielding values graded at 50 (and the writeup on Bateman literally states that he can play a decent CF). That isn't an amazing defensive grade, but its not why they are ranked so low. The reason why they are both ranked so low is because of the complete lack of power. They have Southisene at 20/20 game power, and Bateman at 20/30. Those are atrocious grades. The logic that Fangraphs is using isn't "wrong": an MLB player with ~20 grade power has an absurdly low ceiling because they have to be freakishly good elsewhere to make up for the complete lack of SLG. Chandler Simpson has no power, and even with putting up a ~.300 BA he still only clocks in at a 92 wRC+. He is still a decent player because of his elite speed and low strikeout rate, but the overall package is still "only" good for 1.6 fWAR this season). If he had ~50 grade power he would be an elite player, that is how much of a difference it makes.

The Jays clearly believe that they have something with their organizational ability to build strength/power, so they likely value these players more than the current projections that FG is using. Whether or not they are correct in their plan/analysis is to be seen, but they have been hoarding these high contact/low present power up-the-middle players for a reason, and its not like their scouts aren't aware that a guy like Southisene (who hasn't hit a single pro HR) is an absurd long-shot to make it as an MLB player unless he can find a way to add SOME power.

I'm not convinced by what they are trying to do here, but I'm not the one making these decisions.

"I disagree a bit about defensive prospect grades - i have never found them very reliable tbh. I've seen plenty of good defensive prospects turn out to be terrible defensive players and vice versa. Recent example would be wyatt langfor who was ranked terribly defensively but has been pretty awesome with the glove so far. but in our case i don't even think it's true that the scouting grades are universially bad for these prosepcts - just that their fangraphs defensive grades are particularly weak."

I agree that prospect defensive scouting is often weaker than other aspects. I think it's just harder to "see" fielding and scouts aren't watching players play over long periods of time. Forget about the best of the best because you can usually see this (if you go to games, on TV it's often hard to see jump), but think about say, Gimenez. His OAA is 13. He has played 108 games. That means the difference between Gimenez and an average SS (who is still a very good fielder) is one extra play every 8.3 games. That's really really hard to see because it often isn't a diving play or anything, just being to the ball a fraction quicker.

What I meant is that the elite defensive players are very often seen as such in the minors especially at SS/CF where all great defenders who aren't catchers start off. Bad defenders are also often seen as bad defenders. Like, Nick Allen was always an all-defensive team prospect and a great defender in majors. Swanson by 2016 was seen as an elite defensive prospect, Bobby Witt was given a 60 grade at D when drafted, etc...Langford wasn't seen as a bad defensive player going into draft, he was seen as unlikely to stick in CF. Look at Pinango, didn't watch him in minors much but it doesn't take long to see he is a DH. All this is to say, that you are generally right that defensive scouting is harder but still mostly accurate and I find that especially true at premium positions. If scouts say someone will have a hard time sticking at SS, I don't think it's very likely they will be a great defensive SS. Doesn't mean they won't stick at SS or maybe become a great defensive 2Bman or something. Either way, even if those guys aren't 50th+ prospects traded and are instead like the 27th best or something, it still doesn't make any sense to me. I hope they prove me wrong, and I generally liked the other trades, but this one made and makes zero sense to me.

However I will say: the Bateman grade on FG looks a bit silly to me once you see Enrique Bradfield Jr. graded at 45 FV and #13 in Baltimore's system. They both have the exact same age and flaws, except that Bradfield isn't hitting at all in AAA whereas Bateman is. Sure, Bradfield may be faster by a grade and therefore may project as a better defender in CF, but he has actually hit for even less power than Bateman has, has struck out more, and has walked considerably less.

Bateman has a 125 wRC+, whereas Bradfield Jr. is at 85 wRC+.

And yet one is graded at 45 FV, and the other at 35+ FV.

It basically just comes off as if Bradfield is getting a pass for sucking because he was drafted 17th overall and paid a bonus of $4M+, and therefore he "must" be better.

I look at it this way - contact ability is highly correlated with hand-eye coordination- something you can t yeah but is essential for someone to be a great hitter. Power can be improved in different ways - building muscle, swing changes, approach changes, point of contact. All of those can be changed with training.

They’re making bets that these good athletes with elite hand-eye coordination can be trained up. Maybe they can do it. They talk about soaring no expense on the training side all the time. Hopefully they can start changing the trajectory for some of these guys

Auto correct got me. Yeah = teach; soaring = sparing

Did a swing change with Jay Harry. Not sure about Gleed, but Glevin pointed out he's gone from 2 HR's in the Marlins system last year to 15 this year.

The biggest issue I see in prospect defensive reviews (relative to what I see from players in Vancouver for example) is that they are often rating their athletic defensive attributes (quickness, speed, arm strength) and not their actual defensive abilities. Sometimes the two are aligned and sometimes they are not - (think of the athletic outfielder who constantly gets bad jumps, takes the wrong routes, throws to the wrong base etc).

Yeah, one example I remember was Teoscar, the excellent defensive outfielder prospect.

"Power can be improved in different ways - building muscle, swing changes, approach changes, point of contact. All of those can be changed with training."

There are a couple of problems here. 1) Dub Gleed is 6'1", 220. Harry is 5'11", 195. Bateman is 5'10", 170 and Southisene is 5'7", 170. That is to say, it is much easier to build power in a guy who is already pretty big than in someone small. Bateman could probably add power if he bulked up but would almost certainly lose some speed and very hard to see how a 5'7" guy with 0 HRs gets more power. 2) The Jays seemed to have added power to guys like Lukes and Clement when they came in system. Lukes never had more than 6 HRs in a season in the minors and Ernie never had more than 4. With the Jays in the majors, they have hit 12 with the Jays which is a huge increase but...that's still not a lot of power. Like, let's say they can get Southisene up to being a 7 HR a year guy, that's still not a a lot of HRs and he would need to be elite at D or getting on base or both to be a very valuable player. There are guys who have not much power who are very valuable but the path is much much smaller.

Ozzie Albies is 5'7" listed at 165. He's had 2 20 HR and 2 30 HR seasons.

"Ozzie Albies is 5'7" listed at 165. He's had 2 20 HR and 2 30 HR seasons."

Yes, and Altuve has power but it's rare in guys that small and even when it's there, there's always at least a little power there. When Albies was 21, he hit 24 HRs in the majors. When Altuve was 21, he hit 12 HRs in the majors and minors combined. Southisene is 21. he has 0 HRs in the minors. Is there a single example in history of a guy like this getting power? I'm not sure. I'm looking at the shortest guys Albies, Altuve, Durbin, Ryan Bliss, Kirk , Jose Ramirez, Varsho, Mullins. They all had at least some power in the minors. Mullins had 14 HRs in the minors at 21, Varsho had 12, Ramirez had only 7 but that was AAA and the majors and his power development was a huge surprise. Kwan didn't have much HR power when he was younger (3 at age 21) but he was hitting lots of 2Bs. I think guys can definitely develop power as they get older, it's very common but I don't remember someone with no power at all developing power. Southisene has 0 HRs and 19 2Bs in over 700 PAs. To me, that's like a Chandler Simpson, Jason Tyner, Nassim Nunez, sort of player. I just can't see that profile ever getting to power. I don't even think you want him trying to lift the ball because it's better to use his speed to get on base on groundballs than to constantly hit soft flyballs. It's like lowering his OBP .50 points to get 3 HRs a year or something.

To change the subject away from the minors, I just looked at the 146 qualified hitters to find the least power. 5 lowest by ISO.

Nunez/.040
Kwan/.058
Simpson/.058
Winn/.078
Vlad/.090

OMG

Agree with Glevin Jays will never be able to turn Southisene into Albies or Altuve, But maybe they can turn him into .090 ISO Vlad. :(

i don't know if it;s true of both of them, but at least with Southisene i'm sure i read somewhere that he doesn't even attempt to swing for power at all.

The best example is one that I put a massive * beside - Kirby Puckett - 0 HR in his rookie season (age 24 583 PA), then 2 years later 31 HR at age 26 (4 in the year between). He had 13 HR in about 1000 PA in the minors before that. I put an * beside it as I recall the spring training video he did with Bob Costas where he bragged about his offseason conditioning program and massive weight lifting (his neck was massive) - every last warning sign of steroid use was flashing red with him yet he never was accused of it. This was around the time Canseco emerged and was known to be using steroids even then.

So yeah, it can happen, but normally it takes something gross to happen to make it happen.