Any Santander news?

Yesavage, Dallas up, Arrighetti down, Mantiply DFA.

I've got a point of curiosity that I've not dug up an answer to yet:

During a lockout, players on the 40 man can't have ANY contact with the team. Or any team. Simple.

Minor league players are a separate union on a separate contract and their offseason proceeds as usual.

But what about marginal free agents or minor league free agents? and are things conditional on whether you were on the 40 man at any point in the previous season?

For example - could the Jays sign Jamison Tallion to a minor league contract during the lockout?

Or consider a player like CJ Stubbs. AFAIK he'll be a minor league free agent and didn't join a 40 man this year, so if the Jays want to resign him to another minor league deal that should be totally okay, right?

So the point of the question is Tallion, and those similarly situated - not Stubbs.

wouldn't be bothered at all if they find a way to bring Mantiply back in a minor league deal, for example.

Interesting - no criticism either way - that they decided to let the vet go and keep relative kids like Rodruigez and Cellucci. He's been good for them.

AFAIK the union contract with the owners is just for players on a 40 man roster. So free agents could sign a minor league deal but I don't know about converting it if the lockout ends. Can you insert a clause that says move me to the 40 man when the lockout ends? In theory you could but I am not sure if there is language in the contract between the owners and players that would disallow it.

No Vlad in todays lineup.

Cease says he has shoulder inflammation. Says he could pitch again this week but that seems like a long shot.

Mitch Bannon
@MitchBannon
·
2m
Dylan Cease’s MRI showed some shoulder inflammation. He doesn’t anticipate needing surgery.

He felt, after the last outing, he was hurting the #BlueJays more than helping, so wanted to get it checked out. Hasn’t totally ruled out pitching again, but we’ll see

Hazel Mae
@thehazelmae
·
7m
Dylan Cease said he will not need surgery following MRI results.

He’s in “limbo” on what next steps are depending on where the team is at.

Hazel Mae
@thehazelmae
Cease described shoulder feeling:
“bit heavy and achy and not normal. But at the same time, it didn't feel like it was torn.. not something I need surgery for or anything like that. It was just inflammation, just the kind of that middle ground.”

Cease said his shoulder began bothering him after July 25th game vs the Red Sox.

Thats a long time.

Would there even be a point for a guy like Taillon to sign a minor league contract? At this point in his career, he probably doesn't want to spend the year riding a bus for low pay risking an arm injury while he waits for the lockout to end.

If/when the lockout is over, I could see players like that sign minor league contracts with a "callup in 30 days or release me" clause, which I think is more standard.

Typically when a major league veteran signs a minor league deal it has a clause that they have to be promoted by a certain date or they can opt out. In Tallion's case (for example) ending the season hurt and unprojectable would suggest that an opportunity to take 6 weeks or so in AAA to prove you're healthy and effective would be on the table.

In a normal offseason, of course, your agent would spend a lot of time trying to get a major league deal but that wouldn't work this winter.

Tonights game starts (or does not start) in a rain delay.

No Vladdy in the lineup, the Blue Jays score three runs in the first inning. Hmmm...

Bateman getting a knee injury would be in keeping with this season. I expect it's a strain that will keep him out foe the rest of the series > rest of regular season. *sigh*

I check with my assistant and was pointed to Strange Dee Gordon.He signed a minor league contract with the Nationals on December 11, 2021 and was added to the opening day roster after a strong spring.

Ha. You think you're getting Yesavage back?
That'll cost you Bateman.

There was no mention of Santander today. Could he be activated if Bateman has to go on the IL?

Rudy Martin could come off the IL after this series if he is recovered.

Fatigue after a 120 pitch game isn't surprising.
His ERA kept going down as the velo started dipping.

He followed it with 96 pitches and then 3 times 104 and then 111.
Last year, he was mostly throwing 95 pitches in July and 88-90 in August.
Back to 100 in September but with an extra day of rest.

Last year he got 8 days of rest at the All-Star break.
Once 6 days, once 5 in August and mostly 5 days of rest every start in September.

Can we just wrap this disaster of a season up already?

"Can we just wrap this disaster of a season up already?"

That's a wrap!

Welp. I wish I could say we had fun this year. But nope.

It is done. Thanks for nothing, Jobu.

It’s going to be an interesting offseason. I’m curious how they will approach improving this team.

The season was fun for about a month in Aug/early Sept. A lot of the season seemed to involve injuries, mediocre defense, painful blown games, and Vladdy and Clement struggling.
I'm a bit concerned about how well the bullpen will be able to bounce back next season after this season's overuse.
On the plus side, the team landed Bateman, Smith and Soriano at the deadline, and Valenzuela, Keys, McAdoo showed some promise this year. Perry and Dallas could be on the MLB pitching staff next year.
The front office will probably need to add a couple of mid-rotation SPs (which is the strength of the upcoming FA class, so that is good).

Tragic number at 2 - still a chance, but fading very fast. Still, who mid-season thought they'd have a mathematical chance with 5 games to go? I know I didn't. We did get a lot of fun watching them try - Bateman hitting 320/394/413 was very unexpected, Keys and McAdoo also nice second half surprises. Cease everything we hoped for, Soriano a nice get, Yesavage finally back, Miles came out of nowhere, Varland a real closer. So lots of positives there. Lots of negatives too (for a sub 500 team there had to be a TON). But for now I'm looking at the good. What did I enjoy this year - the kids, the pitching, Okamoto. Next year we'll see if the year even happens. Fingers crossed. Hopefully the Jays get new guys for 2B and LF, add in another quality starter (Cease-Soriano-Yesavage-Ponce a nice 4, but I'd like 1 more top of the line guy). Varland-Rogers-Fisher-Fluharty then cross your fingers. Miles will factor in somewhere but will be stretched out just in case for the rotation. If Berrios returns it'll be a bonus, same for Francis and any others who recover from the IL.

The year isn't over yet, but the fat lady has been warming up for awhile and could start singing tomorrow.

Given the overuse of a BUNCH of the bullpen, do you expect them to bounce back? I guess if there's no season, they have a full year to recover. Otherwise - Fluharty / Varland - can you rely on them? Rogers seems a bit different - different arm motion, lower velo. Even Miles - is he for real?

I'd be very tempted to trade a few of them for a good bat - look at the impact Bateman had. Rogers could close again, if needed, for example. Tiedemann might get a full year as a reliever? 

Schneider tends to overplay his favourites - that seems to include the bullpen. Yimi couldn't survive it, Hoffman seemed to fade at the end, Varland coughed up a few games down the stretch, etc. Maybe don't treat a 4 run lead as a save situation all the time? 

I'm not saying make stupid trades, but we seem to have a very good bullpen, a couple of good starters but no depth, and not enough good bats - maybe rebalance that a bit.. BEFORE their value drops when their arms fall off..

Closers will always cough up a few games. That's normal.

Relievers have limited trade value.
Balancing trades happen rarely.
Some teams trade guys when they become expensive. Jays got Donaldson and Chapman that way.
Soriano might fall under that umbrella but the Angels could certainly afford to pay him.

They have their top starters in Cease and Soriano and Yeasavage is a decent #3.
It's not that hard to find fourth starters in free agency.
The pen looks solid.

The real issue is lineup construction and replacing Springer.
Do they give shots to Barger, Keys or even McAdoo?
Do they play Gimenez and Clement less and Josh Smith more?
Do they sign a top bat to hit behind Vladdy? 
Davis Schneider still have one option next year.
Is he even worth the 40 roster space?
Clase will be out of options.
He was actually good in his 9 games, but does that mean anything?

So while I could see Barger and Keys breaking out next year, I don't see the team starting the year without a vet hitting behind Guerrero.
Is Kirk that guy? He could catch less and DH more.

Yeah, It's going to be a long winter.

I think bullpen and rotation are fine for next year. Maybe add one more mid-rotation guy and everything is good enough. They have depth and a bunch of guys who might be able to help next year. Offense is a complete mess though and prospect depth there is also very thin.

I think Jays need to do some large changes here. I think Davis Schneider is a pretty interesting player but don't think he fits on Jays. Team needs to revamp OF. It's really weak and imbalanced. Adding an everyday 2Bman would be great. Straw, Lukes, and Clement all fall in the same bucket to me which is a useful player but I have no faith that Schenider won't overuse them. Straw can't be your PH and shouldn't be playing LF much at all. Lukes can't be hitting high in the order, Clement can't be playing everyday.

How ironic! The Jays survived and even thrived during the tough portion of the stretch run, only to collapse against the also-rans. Such is life.

Schneider tends to overplay his favourites - that seems to include the bullpen. Yimi couldn't survive it, Hoffman seemed to fade at the end

An intriguing proposition that John Schneider's bullpen usage broke both Yimi Garcia & Jeff Hoffman.

My memory is playing tricks on me, as I'd completely forgotten just how durable & effective Garcia was for some good Jays teams from '22 to trade deadline '24.

His 2nd contract with the Jays has been such a health disaster that it had erased his first term service record.

The proposition that Schneider broke Jeff Hoffman seems less plausible. Hoffman had already imploded by the 2nd month of his free agent contract.

I do recall some concern with overuse with the 13 games he appeared in back in April 2025 when the Jays offense was putrid & had to try to win every game 2-1.

But it seems more of a case that Hoffman with a one year late career breakout in Philly got miscast immediate as closer simply because he was earning the big bucks.

The pattern is clear. Increase offensive production to lessen load on bullpen.

This FO must:

*Get support and insurance for Vlad. There are no "big bats" to sign so you will need to trade for one or more. The offense was on fire with Kirk, Springer, Clement, Barger, Bo and Vlad all clicking last year in post season... that's 2/3 of line up. This year they had max 2-3 guys clicking but usually one one. Next year they have Okamoto, hopefully Vlad and that's it. They need a big run producing bat at minimum.

I've always felt that signing more SP and RP makes the most sense this free agency since there are no great bats. Then trade some of your SP for the best bat you can get.

No game today, day, night DH tomorrow.

When does Santander get called up?

Since we are looking towards next season, I think we can say that the bullpen and the top four starters are pretty strong. The bullpen is fairly deep, and I could see a willingness to trade Rogers, Fluharty or Fisher if it helps make a deal happen to strengthen elsewhere - but the pen isn't so deep that you really want to make that happen. The strength of the free agent class looks to be starting pitching, and that seems like the easiest place to upgrade.

On the position player side, we are strong at the corners (Vlad and Okamoto) and behind the plate (Kirk/Valenzuela). The problem with the rest of the lineup is that there's a lot of second-division regulars. I think the answer is to try and clear out some of the average and find an upgrade either in the corner outfield and/or a 2B/SS.

In the outfield Barger is probably better than a second division regular when he returns, so I'd aim for a LF by preference. Santander is probably not much better than replacement-level now, even if healthy, but his contract means he'll limit the roster construction. I'm not quite sold on Bateman, and I'd like to see a viable right-handed-hitting outfielder who can handle centre if Bateman collapses or is injured, and who could take on a platoon role if everything goes well.

In the infield, I think the Jays need to choose between Gimenez and Clement and find someone better to start either at SS or 2B. Could that be Brandon Lowe or Luis Arraez? Lowe will attract a qualifying offer, Arraez can't be qualified.

Hope the Jays shut down Cease and Guerrero for the rest of season.

The Jays had a $100M plus rotation this season and it still fell apart. I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with the rotation as is heading into next season, especially with Cease ending the year with shoulder discomfort and Ponce not pitching for an entire year. Berrios is out and we have to see how Miles' arm feels in the spring after the 2026 workload. I wouldn't dismiss the rotation as a massive area of need either.

I'm less bullish on the team long-term than some are. They can certainly contend with the right moves, but it feels like all the improvements will have to come externally, which means either adding more players who are 30+ at full freight contracts (free agency) or trading more of the farm system to fill holes that the system itself should be helping to address.

Ultimately it will come down to what Vlad does. I predicted an MVP caliber season from him in 2026 as I thought he figured something out in the 2025 post season, but he's clearly the same guy he's always been. You don't know what you'll get year to year. It's just the reality of betting on him long-term. If he's a 140-160 wRC+ player then the team's ceiling is obviously a lot higher. I don't think we can assume he's going to do that heading into next season. Either way, I just don't want to see a team full of 30-something's hoping that everything clicks. Maybe it does, but the 2025 season in hindsight was the end of the Vlad/Bo era (two star players in years 0-6 of control) and they never were able to pivot to the next core. The latter probably needs to happen sooner than later. Too bad they had to trade Nimmala to get Soriano. Other than JoJo, they don't have a lot of prospects they can dream on.

Jays were exceptionally unlucky with injuries to starters this year. Next year, they have Cease, Soriano, Yesavage, Ponce, Berrios, Bloss, Arighetti, Francis, Berrios, with Perry and King likely options at some point and guys like Miles and Tiedemann potential options (I'd leave latter in pen and former try as starter in Spring I think). Yes, there are a lot of question marks and guys coming back from injuries, but that is a lot of arms. They could use another pitcher between Yesavage and Ponce and there are a bunch in free agency but hitting is a WAY bigger need than pitching.

"The problem with the rest of the lineup is that there's a lot of second-division regulars.

Yup. I wrote this in an earlier thread but how many guys on the team for next year, would you put money on to have a WRC+ better than 100? Vlad (hopefully), Okamoto, and Kirk. That's it.

"In the infield, I think the Jays need to choose between Gimenez and Clement"

That isn't a choice. Clement can't be your everyday SS. He is about as bad a hitter as Gimenez this season and is a vastly worse fielder. That the Jays have given him 600 PAs this year is shocking. He's had a 63 WRC+ since June 1st and the Jays gave him 368 PAs!!!! I don't think they need to get rid of Clement as he would make a fine utility player BUT I don't trust Schneider not to play him too much.

Glevin: Lukes has a career 104 WRC, and I'd feel reasonably confident betting on another similar season from him (he's been > 100 WRC every year excluding his 31 PA rookie cup of coffee).

Not betting on 125+, but 100+, as per your question, for at least one more year - the biggest uncertainty is that he'll be 32 next year, when decline starts to happen, but I think he can work around it for one or two more years. I.e. decently solid player, including some pretty decent defense / arm and could cover CF in a pinch for a few games.


Again, not saying you don't / can't upgrade, and you probably need a lefty-masher as platoon partner, but I don't think Lukes is our worst problem or unplayable.

The potential upgrade even for a mid-rotation starter over Arighetti/Berrios/Francis is pretty significant. I don't think two Berrios will help and the one we do have is out until mid-year, and I don't expect much from him even once he is back.

"how many guys on the team for next year, would you put money on to have a WRC+ better than 100?"

Barger as well, but it is pretty grim.

"That isn't a choice. Clement can't be your everyday SS."

I think Gimenez is a better player at the moment as well, but if the Jays can find a buyer for Gimenez and (some of/hopefully most of) his 3/$73m remaining salaries, I could see them betting on a Clement bounceback for a year and waiting for Parker to arrive. I have no idea why Clement's defence declined so strikingly this year. My broader point is that we need to reduce the positions where we are running out second-division regulars with limited upside. I'm less concerned about which of Gimenez or Clement the team ends up going with, and more concerned with finding someone better to fill one of those positions.

To put it another way, the only position players I particularly want to see coming back next year are: Bateman, Barger, Guerrero, Okamoto, Kirk, Valenzuela and Keys (I wouldn't guarantee a starting job to Bateman or a major league job for Keys, though). Everybody else is subject to upgrades.

"Bloss, Arighetti, Francis, Berrios, with Perry and King likely options at some point and guys like Miles and Tiedemann potential options"


That looks pretty thin to me. The latter two are probably relievers (Miles and Tiedemann) as it's hard to envision them lasting with heavy rotation innings. The rest are either very young (King) or aren't very good (Bloss, Arrighetti, Francis). Berrios is probably more of a 2028 option given his injury. They absolutely need to add to the rotation, probably a FA signing and then more depth beyond that. It sucks that they can't seem to develop even competent back-end SP's, forcing them to spend $30M on the Ponce's of the world, but that's what needs to be done again in all likelihood.

But yes the offense is the bigger issue and there's no obvious path to fixing it other than throwing money at it. Need a 2B and an OF at a minimum.

Glevin: Lukes has a career 104 WRC, and I'd feel reasonably confident betting on another similar season from him (he's been > 100 WRC every year excluding his 31 PA rookie cup of coffee)."

Lukes has highest floor but his WRC+ last two seasons of 103 and 101 going into age 32 season. Could he have a 100 WRC +? sure, but it feels like toss-up. My issue with Lukes is that along with his high floor is a very low ceiling. He has a very good chance of being a decent player and almost zero chance of being more than that. The other issue I have with Lukes position on the team is that team is imbalanced in the OF as it stands right now and having Barger and Lukes as two LH RF doesn't make sense and either one in LF doesn't make a lot of sense either. Jays can make it work and Lukes is a solid piece so don't think the Jays need to move off of him particularly but they need to upgrade offense and get better balanced team overall.

Lately I’ve been feeling like the Soriano trade is going to be a bust. Not because Soriano won’t be adequate over the next couple of years — I think he could be solid (if maybe somewhat inconsistent), if he can stay healthy.

It’s that the Blue Jays need a shortstop and Nimmala is starting to look extremely promising — .260/.389/.577 (153 wRC+) in AA with the Angels, excellent BB/K stats. He turns 21 next month, so he’s performing at a very high level while still being a very young prospect. He’ll be controllable for a long time and could be a candidate for a Carroll-type early-career long-term contract.

I understand why the Blue Jays made the trade, but I think there is a strong chance they’re going to regret it. Nimmala looks like he could end up being a lot more valuable than Martin/SWR.

The tricky part of planning for next year is that there's a ton of variability.Variability of the sort you can't plan for (for example, there was no way you could plan last year for what Vlad did this year)

Straight down the line-

Catcher is fine

First - Vlad - if he gets his mojo back, you're fine here, if he doesn't you can't really have plan B

Second - this might be Ross' toughest decision. There's certainly a valid hypothesis that John gets fixated on "his guys" which presents an obvious but difficult choice: trade Ernie. There are in-house options (Smith, McAdoo, Harry, Kasavich), there's the possibility of trying to sign Brandon Lowe, or Luis Arraez, or even Jazz Chisolm there's at least a chance someone will trade for CJ Abrams but you might also see what the terrain is like regarding Otto Lopez or Xavier Edwards.

Short - Giménez ... I don't think there's any real chance they'll do anything else here until Parker is on the doorstep

Third - seems settled. I think he'll be marginally better next year

Right - Barger would have to stink for half a season to play himself out of this job

Center - Bateman defaults here even with the expected regression because there's really hardly anyone else who's sure to bbe better that's out there.

Left - there's internal depth but if you count on someone like McAdoo here you failed the offseason. IF he can play a decent left field, there's a strong argument for Sato even if he is left-handed because he's five years younger than Suzuki and you can scratch this position off your list before the lockout. Otherwise, win the bidding for Suzuki

DH - they will feel obliged to try to go with Santander if he can take the field, he'll probably get the whole first half. But if he doesn't get his form back I wouldn't be stunned if they ate his contract and ditched him. Particularly if they hang on to Keys and the feel he can be an effective plan B

So
Stable
Wildly unprojectable
Completely in flux
stable
Stable
Relatively stable
relatively stable
Pending
Wildly unprojectable. When I used the word variable what I mean is this - get solid offense from Vlad, Tony, and Barger and add a good bat in left and you're fine. But I don't think there's any solution available if those variables go south again.

The bullpen has a lot of in-house depth, even allowing for the real chance that Fluharty and Fisher might regress due to this year's workload (and Varland, if I'm brutally honest). Even if we count Miles as a SP next spring - which I think they likely will...
Varland
Rogers
Fluharty
Fisher
Little
Dallas
Rodriguez (if you believe the guys on ATL they really like the dude)
Cellucci
Tiedemann
Guerra
Stanifer
Coleman (top 30 prospect, needs to handle AAA first)
Winkowski


Starting pitching is all variables
Is Cease gonna be fine?
Can they add the necessary polish to Soriano?
Will Yesavage approach 30 starts?
Will Miles suffer from the innings jump this year?
Is Ponce capable of what they expected when they signed him?
Can they fix Areghetti?
Will Bloss stay healthy?
How much time will Francis miss? (don't even think about Berrios until the second half)
How soon will the kids come (if at all?)
Who will they sign?

It just seems to me that you address the obvious - LF, 2B, SP and hope like hell guys deliver on expectations.

I'll continue to saw the Jays should execute the option on Straw and he's a useful non-starting OF, PR, and LIDR. He should play something like 135-140 games next year but start no more than 30 unless there are several OF injured above him. At $8M versus a $1.8 million buy out and at least $1M to that ML roster I think Straw is worth that to a competing decently large market team.

The pitching rotation looks very good if you add Skubal to the front. It is likely to take a huge contract but the Jays are one of 3-5 teams thought to be in the possible mix. If you don't break the bank for the far and away best player available, then maybe you shop for the bargain basement pitcher you feel good about or maybe an Asian free agent pitcher.

Overall the team still looks strong; however, it looked strong this year too (remember at the start of the year when people were concerned we had 8 quality starting pitchers?).

Obviously fixing Vlad however that can happen (health, off-season, coaching, time, luck??) is likely the most important thing, but too hard for us to say how that happens.

The other important thing is resolving the lockout to actually have a baseball season, but silver lining, at least we aren't coming off back to back WS to only have work stoppage! So that's sort of something.

For the 2027 OF I'm leaning towards...

• LF: Santander
• CF: Bateman (who else?)
• RF: Barger
• 4th+: Lukes, Straw ($5.25 mil option for all intents and purposes, $1.75 if released vs $7 mil if kept with $500k buyout of $8.5 '29 option), Smith (IF/OF)
• Piñango, Schneider both fighting to get a shot, along with other OF in the system

DH will probably be Keys with Santander there sometimes if by some miracle he is healthy.

Infield

• 1B: Vlad (duh)
• 2B: Clement (hopefully someone else found so he can be a super-utility guy instead)
• SS: Gimenez
• 3B: Okamoto
• UT: McAdoo, Smith with Schneider trying to earn a slot. Keys also lands here (1B/3B)

Catcher is damn obvious with Kirk/Valenzuela although I wouldn't be surprised if they sign a good 3rd guy and send Valenzuela to AAA to play everyday until/unless needed.

The Straw team option has to be declined simply because John Schneider hasn't shown the ability to nail gritty-but-flawed players like Myles & Clement to the bench when needed.

There’s just no way Schneider will be able to limit Straw to only 5 starts a month.

Straw needs to be set free like Carlos Pena in Moneyball simply so Art Howe doesn't have the option of penciling his name in daily.

CF Bateman 25
RF Barger 27
LF Lukes 32
3B Okamoto 31
SS Gimenez 28
2B Clement 31
1B Guerrero 28
C Alejandro 28
DH Santander 32

UT Schneider 28
OF Straw 33
IF Smith 29
C Valenzuela 26


CF Clase 25
RF Schreck 26
LF Harry 24
3B McAdoo 25
SS Kasevich 26
2B Goodwin 25
1B Keys 24
C Parker 24
DH Pinango 25


Basically just go add the biggest bat or two you can, regardless of position, since we have good positional coverage and depth everywhere.

It's not regardless of position.
Vlad is locked at 1B.
Okamoto is pretty much locked at 3B.

I don't think there are any big bats to be found down the middle. CF/SS/C.
They have many options at DH who would be wasted otherwise.

It has to be 2B/LF or RF.

Josh Smith is the super-utility going forward, not Clement.

I would dumb Straw because Clase should be able to replace him.
Clase has more speed and more power. Lukes becomes the 4th outfielder.

It seems like they need to trade one of Clement/Kasevich/McAdoo.
It's getting into Otto Lopez territory.

"The Straw team option has to be declined simply because John Schneider hasn't shown the ability to nail gritty-but-flawed players like Myles & Clement to the bench when needed."

This is exactly my feeling as well. I like Straw, by all accounts he's a great clubhouse guy and is a useful 5th OFer because of his speed and D but Schneider just plays him too much. Maybe if Jays have better options, he'd play him less?

"CF Bateman 25
RF Barger 27
LF Lukes 32
3B Okamoto 31
SS Gimenez 28
2B Clement 31
1B Guerrero 28
C Alejandro 28
DH Santander 32:

Lukes is a decent vs RHP player in RF because of his defense, but you play him in LF, and you negate most of his value. Barger scares me because I don't think being that muscular is great for baseball and leads to injuries but maybe just a bias. If I'm Jays, I'm looking at LF and 2B, let's say Suzuki and Arraez (Seems like a very jays player). Leave DH open and hope one of Keys or Santander can take it or you can rotate Okamoto (with Barger at 3B vs RHP, Lukes at RF) and Vlad (Barger at 3B, Okamoto at 1B) through the spot. Jays also need a CF to pair with Bateman who can play regularly if Bateman regresses (which is a real possibility). Someone like Luis Robert Jr. would make a lot of sense.

Sign: Arraez, Suzuki, Robert Jr., and one decent to good starter: Trevor Rogers, Gausman, Holmes, Bieber, Mize, etc...and Jays are in great shape. I don't think Jays are going to go out and sign all these guys, I think the might make some trades instead, but I think that's the direction they should generally go. They can't sit back and go with "their guys" again.

Saying the Soriano trade will look like a bust is extreme. I don't think you realize how valuable he already is with his floor to this team. There's already been lots of discussion of why people think the FO traded Nimmala. They have a better prospect already at the same position and have some questions about his consistency.

For the Soriano trade to be about even Nimmala would have to project out as a starting level shortstop and Soriano would have to maintain his performance for the next 2 years. That's called a fair trade not a bust. You might not like it because you value years and control on the cheap (I think) but I think it's far likelier that Soriano improves under Pete Walker and also signs an extension with the Blue Jays. That is worth trading Nimmala for even if he blossoms into a starting SS...wasn't going to happen here with Parker and Okamoto at SS and 3B.

I'm very happy this FO traded a bonafide prospect for a top shelf rotation arm. I wish they would do the same for a top shelf bat without including Parker or King.

I’ll lay out my logic:

1. Soriano is controllable for two more years at arb salary levels

2. Soriano has yet to be even good for Toronto (4.73 ERA so far), and he has been good-not-great in his career to date

3. Soriano has had a couple of elbow surgeries, including TJ,
so he’s an injury risk for the next couple of years, and probably a much bigger injury risk if extended to a long-term contract. He has yet to post 175 innings in a season (though he may hit that mark this year)

4. Nimmala’s very young age and high performance at AA this year, and especially since the trade, suggests that he may be a future cornerstone player — a true SS who can hit in the middle of the order with power and get on base

5. Nimmala is controllable for many years (at least six or seven) and plays a key defensive position where the Blue Jays have a need (because Gimenez is just so-so overall and is getting older)

6. Scouts have suggested Parker is likely to move to third base, so the team can’t count on him being a SS

I was OK with the trade initially, but my opinion of it is changing.

Yohendrick Pinango, Chase Lee, CJ Van Eyk and Josh Klein all are in Baltimore. Are they there to be on the taxi squad or for a move? No official news yet.

With the Jays essentially eliminated the Jays could put Dylan Cease on the IL. They can also add a player/pitcher for the DH today.

Also Bateman could go on the IL.

No Bateman or Vlad in the lineup today for game one.

I’ll lay out my logic:

1. Soriano is controllable for two more years at arb salary levels
> This is not a negative. He will be underpaid compared to fair market value for those two years.

2. Soriano has yet to be even good for Toronto (4.73 ERA so far), and he has been good-not-great in his career to date
> If he is yet to be good then he won't get much of a raise from his 2.9 million salary which is a steal.

3. Soriano has had a couple of elbow surgeries, including TJ,
so he’s an injury risk for the next couple of years, and probably a much bigger injury risk if extended to a long-term contract. He has yet to post 175 innings in a season (though he may hit that mark this year)
> Pitchers are not supposed to pitch 175 innings any more... there's less and less of them that do this without injury. As well, Nimmala has had his fair share of injuries for a young prospect.

4. Nimmala’s very young age and high performance at AA this year, and especially since the trade, suggests that he may be a future cornerstone player — a true SS who can hit in the middle of the order with power and get on base
> He has been hot since the trade but that doesn't wipe out the past. He's been pushed very aggressively and looks like a definite MLB SS but I wouldn't think he will be batting 3/4 in any MLB line up.

5. Nimmala is controllable for many years (at least six or seven) and plays a key defensive position where the Blue Jays have a need (because Gimenez is just so-so overall and is getting older)
> If the Jays could clear Gimenez off the roster and put Nimmala there instead with Parker then I don't think this trade happens. In any case its not a bust. You can't win every trade and when Nimmala went to the Angels he was a mid top 100 prospect.

6. Scouts have suggested Parker is likely to move to third base, so the team can’t count on him being a SS
> The book on both Nimmala and Parker is they are not defensively strong enough to be above average MLB shortstops. Parker grades to be well above average in hitting while Nimmala is considered riskier with his long swing and need to develop power, issues which Parker does not have.

I was OK with the trade initially, but my opinion of it is changing.
> I wouldn't even disagree with this although I am bullish on Soriano. I just don't think it's fair to call it a "could be a bust" trade. I think all of your points make sense and especially now that the FO needs to go and sign or trade for some impactful bats.

Perhaps his very uninspiring 2025 is sticking too vividly in my memory, but I don't have confidence that Clase can replace Straw. I don't recall him being impressive in CF in what I've seen and the Jays basically limited him to the corner when he was up in the majors this year.

Whoever fills the Straw role has to be able to be at least average in CF, given uncertainty about how Bateman holds up during a full season and the fact that Lukes is stretched in center.

I think the concern about Schneider using Straw too much is a real one, but I wonder if better alternatives will help curb that impulse.

Finally, the talk of Straw's contract being essentially $5.25 million given the cost of a buyout and the additional million (minimum) they'd spend on the roster spot seems to miss the fact using the buyout will also save them $500,000 for the following year's buyout.

As such, I'd pretty strongly lean towards using the buyout and approach Straw to try to get him to resign on a year deal for a couple of million. He's happy here and he avoids the uncertainty of free agency and the Jays save a couple of million. Perhaps it's wishful thinking Straw would forego free agency, but he also probably knows that there are a number of fourth outfield types floating around in free agency. Neither is directly comparable to Straw, but, for example, TJ Friedl and Jake Farley both were waived and will be free agents this winter.

dalimon, I think you may be underrating Nimmala’s offense and defense. This is Keith Law on Sept. 15:

“The Toronto Blue Jays’ 2023 first-round pick went to Anaheim in the José Soriano trade this August. After the trade, he took what was already a modest breakout season to another level by hitting eight homers in 27 games for Double-A Rocket City. He’s a true shortstop with real power and won’t turn 21 until mid-October.”

And Ben Clemens of FG a couple of days ago:

“This is really more of a question for the prospect guys than for me but (Nimmala’s) stock is clearly up, impressive performance in Double-A at 20. I am not sure he's their starting shortstop on opening day next year because Neto is awesome and I'm not sold on a move to third base being inevitable. But I think that he's clearly arrow up from what we thought of him at the deadline. Good trade for the Angels. Might be a win-win, I think Soriano is gonna play well in Toronto next year, but the Angels have 100% done well there.”

I'm not undervaluing I just think he's been on a heater since the trade and will inevitably cool off. I don't look at 6 weeks and consider that the new level for either player to project going forward.

Soriano has changed his approach completely so far here and is working with new catchers and coaches. Nimmala we shall see but I don't put po much stock in end of season numbers when the best players from the Southern League have been called up to the majors. I'll agree with you if he has 20 HR by the break next year and if Soriano isn't a top 20 pitcher on one of the best contracts.

The deal is supposed to be:

Jays get Soriano, borderline ace for playoff run and 2 more years and get to improve him with a better pitching approach and catching. Angels get a #1 prospect in their system who can play SS and hit in the top 6 of their line up, at best a Zack Neto level player.

Those are the parameters I got from the trade reviews out there at time of trade. If Nimmala becomes the next Seager or Lindor then yes, of course it would be a bust. Do you really think that will happen? That's what a 3/4 hitting and fielding SS looks like.

You also always worry about trading away younger controllable guys. I remember Travis Bergen, Dwight Smith and other guys were in your list of players given away.

Ben Rice wasn't even in the team and you lamented the better value he gave to the Yankees which was irrelevant but also way to premature at the time, but now we can say you were right about Ben Rice vs Vlad.

I hope you're wrong and the Jays didn't just trade the next Alfonso Soriano away.

Nimmala did finish the season extremely well post-trade, but using that as post-trade critique is a bit silly (because its crystal-ball projecting after the fact). At the time of the trade he was actually slumping and treading water after a hot start and wasn't hitting for much power. He's had extreme hot/cold periods ever since turning pro, so we'll see what he ultimately turns into.

At the end of the day the trade was made because the team is in a clear contention window and badly needed cheap controllable immediate starter help for the next few seasons. The fact that Soriano was pretty underwhelming post-trade doesn't hurt much because this was already a lost season unfortunately. The real judgement on Soriano will come over the next two seasons as the Jays try to re-tool and re-contend.

Also, Gimenez just turned 28. The idea of him being an "aging" SS is a bit comical. Regardless of what anyone thinks of him, he will be in his relative prime of what he is today for a at least ~3 more seasons. Yet you are talking about him as if this is some 36 year old shortstops who needs to be replaced tomorrow. By the time Gimenez needs to be replaced, the Jays will have already had enough time to draft and develop another Nimmala.

I clearly said that I’m revisiting my assessment of the trade based on the post-trade performances of Nimmala and Soriano.

Gimenez has a 3.2% walk rate this year and a 79 wRC+. His value depends almost entirely on his defense. If his defense falls off, as sometimes happens for up-the-middle players in their late 20s and 30s — see Varsho — then Gimenez will basically be a bench player, and the team will need a new starting shortstop.

The strength of this FA class is starting pitching, so you could argue the team should have kept Nimmala and signed a couple of FA SPs.

No need to get defensive or heated, it’s just an internet conversation about baseball.

That's fine, but your entire analysis is framed from the perspective of the most negative outcome occurring on every point you tried to make:

1) Nimmala's true future ability is what he showed post-trade (and not the bigger sample ~114 wRC+ in AA pre-trade).
2) Soriano has been "bad" in ~9 starts, and this is therefore his future value.
3) Soriano has had two TJ surgeries already, which means that he will get hurt again.
4) Gimenez is old and his defense might collapse, which means he will be a bench player.

All of these could happen, or they could not. The Gimenez one is just flat out wrong. He is not old, nor is there any reason to expect his defense to collapse any time soon. Comparing him to a CF is also pointless because these positions have different points of decline. Why not compare him to Dansby Swanson who turns 33 in 5 months and is still an elite defender at SS? Mookie Betts is almost 34 and he is still a well above average defender at SS. The defensive fall-off for CF is much more drastic because the position is extremely dependant on foot-speed and explosiveness. Gimenez isn't an elite defender because he is freakishly athletic. He is actually only in the 59th percentile in sprint speed. There are countless examples of elite defensive SS's who have maintained that form into their mid 30's. Brandon Crawford put up a 17.2 FG DEF value at age 34 and was at 7.8 at age 36.

The Nimmala is trade is interesting because you could argue it was a good/logical trade, and also that it was one the Jays shouldn't have made given their current position, and I think both would be reasonable points. Nimmala isn't a superstar level prospect, but does have potential to be a MLB SS with pop. Maybe that's Paul DeJong, or maybe it's Willy Adames, or maybe it's someone who flames out in AAA. Wide range of possibilities, so from a risk/return standpoint, trading him for Soriano is the safer move with the higher floor and possibly the higher ceiling if they think Soriano has another gear in him.

The risk is not so much performance but where the Jays are in the competitive window. They badly need some young upside talent in years 0-6 of control. Maybe Nimmala was not someone they envisioned in that role, and maybe they'll be proven right, but the larger picture does point to the organization that is devoid of young talent being better off trying to develop a position player star and use free agency as their path rather than using free agency/trade to fix everything. That worked in 2020-25 because they had Vlad, Bo, and Kirk come up. A lot harder to do that now given that they are already a $300M payroll team (give or take).

I'm pulling for Nimmala as it would be cool to see an Indian star in MLB but he's definitely not a lock to pan out by any means. What the Jays do in 2027-28 (and possibly beyond if they work out an extension with Soriano) is going to determine how this trade worked out in the end.

I have serious doubts that Barger will ever be ‘back’, given what he did to his arm. It sounds a lot like the injury that effectively put an end to Jose Bautista’s career (at least his career as it had been before the injury).

Sean Keys had a 1.019 OPS in the minors this year. In August, he had a 1.154 OPS in Buffalo. He got called up September 1st and has had a .901 OPS with the Jays. They've given him 19 PAs. I realize that he could have only played for Okamoto, Vlad, or Springer but surely, the Jays could have worked him into a few more games at least.

I’m not sure why people are assuming Nimmala won’t be a star in the majors. Since the trade he’s posted a superb 153 wRC+ in AA with substantial home run power, a high walk rate, and a moderate K rate. He’s only 20 (21 next month), so he’s very young for the level. And he’s apparently a true shortstop. Doesn’t that at least suggest star potential? He’s still *very* young and could well be breaking out for real.

Barger is turning 27 in November, which is still 2-3 years younger than Jose Bautista was when he finally broke out with the Jays. And Jose didn't hurt his arm with a possibly ill-advised throw trying to get a runner out at 1st until well into his 30s.

Barger's lost season & elbow surgery are certainly concerning. But a 5-8 years of age difference is an eternity when it comes to projecting recoveries & future outcomes.

Andres Gimenez certainly seems like a very old "28" because he debuted so young and his compiled so many subpar seasons since his MVP runner-up outlier campaign.

I have a soft spot for Gimenez. I have an ongoing unfounded hope that he will find another offensive gear.

My pragmatic side is concerned though that his first two seasons as a Jay have seemingly been marred by chronic lower leg issues even if he has stayed on the field throughout most of them.

I noticed during the Texas series that much like Springer, Andres seems to have a free pass to not run out groundballs to protect his delicate quads/hammies.

It's not a good sign when your barely playable, "in his prime" starting SS with the albatross contract has to be treated with kidgloves like an ageing slugger rather than the scrappy, hard-nosed dirtbag that would help to reclaim some of his lost value.

There is a rule of thumb that says the winner of the trade is whoever got the best player (at the time of the trade). Basically who has the most current ML value. In this case, that's Soriano. Now this rule of thumb is not 100%, but I think what it covers is the best upside for a prospect is almost always better than the ML player they were traded for, but the vast majority of prospects never reach - or even get close to - the best upside they have. So the expected true level is well below the ML talent that was traded. If you use survivors bias to only look at the talent that succeeded at close to (or above) their projected best upside then you'll call those trades involving them steals/busts, but those are usually the exceptions not the rule.

Soriano is a pitcher so they can always blow out their shoulder/arm and be done at any time, but we aren't talking about some veteran fringe reliever bulking up the middle of the bullpen for a partial season. We are talking about a starting pitcher at a controllable discount for the next two years who is above average for a starter, borderline very much above average. That has real value.

The prospect by contrast wasn't a top 10 "can't miss" (even though even some of those rarely miss) but instead a late top 100 prospect. People in that slot miss a lot, make the majors a lot, and when they make the majors sometimes they barely have any value, sometimes they hit their normal projections.

It is very hard to see this as a disaster for the Jays. There is a nonzero but somewhat small chance the Jays will get a lot less value than the Angel's and will have "lost" this trade, there is a large chance they receive more value and will have "won" this trade, and a decent chance both sides receive very roughly similar value and it will be a wash or win-win deal.

I don’t love that rule of thumb, as it’s so categorical and basically always privileges the major-league player over the prospect. Did the Cubs win the Gausman-Bateman trade as of the date of the trade?

I do not find it hard to envision the Angels winning the trade. I can see Nimmala becoming a good major-league shortstop for the next decade (maybe starting in 2028), while Soriano pitches around 300-350 innings of 4ish ERA baseball (barring an injury which is conceivable) on an aging Blue Jays roster that is weak in the middle infield.

I probably wouldn't have done the Soriano trade because I think there was no need to do this sort of thing at the trade deadline and could have waited for off-season to see if they had other options. As others have said, there are tons of free agent pitchers out there. Also, Jays have a very weak system when it comes to hitters and way more depth with pitching. That being said, getting 2 years of a good pitcher who you have a chance of getting more out of is high value so Nimmala as a cost makes sense.

Varsho (coming off a 4.3 WAR season) was the best player in the Varsho/Moreno trade at the time and you won't find one person who thinks the Jays got the better end of that one. I think the Varsho deal was more defensible because it was right towards the middle of the team's competitive window and they were trading from a position of depth for a position of need. The Nimmala/Soriano deal is a bit more complicated. The Jays made the trade when they were awful (August run aside, it's been a bad season), and they are staring at the possibility of 2 last place finishes in 3 years (the 2025 magical season just happens to be sandwiched in between). Nimmala also wasn't trading depth, it was trading one of only two impact prospects in the system from the hitting side, and they easily could have fit both him and Parker in the same infield if/when they ever came up.

While the Soriano trade itself was fine from a value-standpoint, and may even end up being really good, I'm not sure this is the move you make given that context. If Nimmala turns into something and Soriano doesn't take a leap forward, then that's where hindsight makes the deal look different.

There is a Vladdy interview in Spanish floating around social media, and assuming the transcribed quote is real, then it's going to a fun 13 more years with this mindset:

"They didn’t pay me to hit 40 every year. They paid me for what I already did. I want people to understand one thing. The money they gave me wasn’t for what I’m going to do. It was for what I already did. They didn’t pay me because I’m going to hit 40 every year. They paid me for what I already accomplished. People are confused about that, but I think the same way they do. Like, sometimes I even say to myself: bro, they gave you all that money and you’re out here doing nothing. I try."

Has there been any mention of Santander since the Jays got to Baltimore.

If that quote is accurate ... wow what a terrible attitude to have.

If the Jays lose out they could really move up the draft table.

Nimmala was drafted 20th overall and I believe Yesavage around then too. The picks lately have been good.

You can easily lose context and nuance and meaning in translation of a quote in another article. Heck even articles in one language frequently mislead and misrepresent people. The Vlad quote could conceivably just be saying he isn't motivated by the money, but by a desire to excel and win. Similarly it could instead be a (mostly correct) view that teams in ML baseball usually sign big contracts reflecting the level of quality people have already shown (which is why guys with great platform seasons do much better - beyond what mere projection would suggest - than people with bad platform years. Or many other things that aren't necessarily negative. I.e., maybe just a way to push back on a question of why he struggled this year if he's being paid so much.

"It's not regardless of position.
Vlad is locked at 1B.
Okamoto is pretty much locked at 3B."


yeah it's literally regardless of position imo. if we sign a big bat 1B/3B and those 3 share the DH spot that is more than fine.

Cease to IL. Rodriguez, who pitched today, optioned.

CJ Van Eyk and Chase Lee added.

Vladdy clarified his comments in a Sportsnet interview.

I think he’ll have a better year next year.

Vlad is probably winning another Gold Glove at 1B this year.
Okamoto has been pretty good, but he had to make adjustments.
He should be better next year. He's played 2 games at DH. Vlad 15.

Given Kirk's trouble with the base running, he's probably the one getting more DH.

Van Eck, not just based on this game but his whole career, is not a major league pitcher. At least not any team that's thinking about contending

So...roster maintenance since Shi wrote about it

Current 40 man has one open spot
Jays have eight pending free agents, but two are on the 60 day IL and are therefore irrelevant to this speculation.
So that puts them at 33.
There are 7 other players on the 60 which will need to be re-added - full roster.

During the last work stoppage they canceled the Rule 5 draft. If this applies again then that saves them the need to add players to protect them (there are at least three that would have made that cut) but if they want to add a player via free agency or trade, someone currently on the roster has to go.

My impression of the easiest cuts are roughly ordered like this:

Rudy Martin
Shawn Ross
CJ Van Eck
Chase Lee
John Klien
Jon Clase
Davis Schneider

Should be enough flexibility there. Obviously unpredictable trades might create room as well as cost you some roster room.

Jays need to sneak into top ten of draft spot to be protected from luxury penalty, correct? Will 2027 draft be based on current CBA or new CBA?

Sounds good TamRa - I'm very curious what they do with this team this winter. Santander is a wild card and should not be counted on even if healthy. An OF corner has to be a priority - Lukes and Barger, with Schneider, Smith, McAdoo, etc. could cover one corner but counting on that crew for 2 corners would be writing off 2027 imo. Keys might be good at DH for 2027 but I wouldn't count on it. Straw probably will be kept as insurance/backup for Bateman and late inning defense.

IMO 2B has to be improved too - Clement is a nice guy but was given a shot at a full time job and failed (mediocre defense, 86 wRC+, just not enough to be more than a very nice backup). Rotation is good, but getting one more starter would be sweet (c'mon Rogers get Skubal). The pen has lots of good stuff, but more is always a good idea.

So LF-2B-5th starter (ideally a 1/2 type)-more pen depth is my order of goals. What is possible - who knows? With the lockout coming lord knows if 2027's season will even happen. If the owners get stupid and demand cap or nothing then we'll see no MLB for '27 and '28 at the very least. Sigh.

Aren't there 7 lottery picks? I **THINK** those are protected, I'm inclined to think the others are not.

" I'm very curious what they do with this team this winter."

Predicting this sort of thing is really a fool's errand but we do it every year.

Second: there are four potential FA adds- Lowe, Arraez, Torres, and Chisolm. While it's true they need a slugger, and if they don't see a path to adding one for LF then Lowe is the obvious play here, I'm also intrigued by reformatting the offense by adding a fast lead-off type (Chisolm). In that vein, if I'm Ross I'd have a LONG talk about the cost of Otto Lopez (yes maybe it's a career year but that's what you pay your evaluators for). As a fallback if that price is just too high, see about Xavier Edwards. CJ Abrams would be fun but I assume you can't even have that conversation unless you start with Parker which...with Arjun gone I don't think so. Plus, this is 3 years in a row that Abrams has disappeared in the second half.

Beyond that would hoping to repeat the Clement trajectory with someone new.

In terms of left field, it feels like the pickings are more slim. There's Teruaki Sato but you have to really trust your evaluators. Can he play a competent LF? Is he going to be a Gallo-type hitter who runs into a lot of homers but comes up short on contact? I mean, a LH version of Kaz at a reasonable contract and no qualifying offer to worry about would help for sure. Beyond that, Seiya Suzuki seems an obvious play. There's maybe some similarity to the Springer signing, but shorter (because he's older). The only other comparable FA is Randy Arozerena but the way broadcasters talk he's *maybe* not the sort of personality they want to add? With the market so tight you might end up paying him for his 2026 production and getting a guy who hits like he did '23-'25
Trade wise I'd be interested in what the Giants would ask for Casey Schmidt but that would be an upside play (the kind of move you're more comfortable with if you made a big upgrade at 2B - which - he could also be a nice add at 2B). Schmidt's WRC+ is 114 and there's not a left fielder with a better number that you would be inclined to think would be really available in a trade (beyond the platitude that everyone is available at the right price)

So, adding Sato and Schmidt would play, adding Lopez and any of those LF would potentially be a big upgrade. There are some paths here.

I'm not going to get long-winded tonight about SP because there are just WAY too many potential paths for any speculation to carry much weight, ranging from giving insane money to Skubal to buying low on Bieber. Even I'm not THAT long winded...at least not tonight.

All 18 teams that miss the playoffs are in the lottery. The ping pong ball stuff is used to decide the first 6 picks, then everyone else is placed based on their record.

The Jays need to get into the top 6 to avoid their first pick being moved back 10 spots.

Thx good to know

No interest in Otto Lopez. Trading for guys having obviously career years doesn't make sense. He had an incredible first half, but second half had a 78 WRC+. Don't want to give up top prospects for this profile if I'm the Jays.

This off-season is going to be depressing because owners just seem hell-bent on fundamentally changing baseball to try to squeeze a little more money and are willing to shut things down to do so. I think there are real issues that need to be addressed but they can all be addressed without massive changes. Better sharing of TV revenue, no, or limited deferred contracts, salary floor, re-seeding playoffs, etc...I love baseball and resent trying to turn it into a different sport so some billionaire can sell his franchise for an extra $1.3 billion.

Before the Baltimore games we were in contention for a playoff position. We were the visitor in Baltimore so the Jay's revenue was not affected. The Jay's Cincinnati revenue I expect will suffer. So I presume that all home games except 3 produced decent revenue.

If we were on pace for 89 wins or 93-95 wins then there would be more excitement which possibly produces more revenue (highest for the 93-95 wins). This is what I think, but I could be wrong. My further thinking says that Shapiro's job is to produce the 93-95 win revenue because it is the highest. Especially with the Jay's market.

So how is Shapiro doing his job? And how should he do his job? I don't know the answer but he is smart. He can't get every FA he wants (see Ohtani). But he resigned Vlad, got FAs Springer, Gausman and Santander. Springer was OK but Realmuto was better IMO. Gausman was great VS Ray being a bad FA signing (injuries). Santander looks like a bad FA signing but he is not too expensive. So I conclude that you win some and lose some trades and FA signings. I do wonder about his thoughts and philosophy about the draft pick losses. He knows the penalty structure about the 1st pick going 10 picks back and losing picks in the 2nd-4th round.

I am 100% sure Bauxites are already planning 2027 with lots of discussion. Also 100% convinced the various media people will create rumors. I don't plan to get involved but others will/should enjoy speculating. My plan is to compare the 2025 results with the 2026 results. 1) 1 run win/loss record. 2) Injuries, bad performance. 3) Performance of the coaching staff.

On Nimmala, he obviously had a good run with the Angels' AA team getting to more power; but I wouldn't read too much into it - he swung more and made less contact, so the improved BB:K ratio isn't supported by the more fundamental numbers, and his overall batted-ball profile looks like it got a little worse with the Angels.

He's obviously a top prospect, but I don't really buy the idea that he found another level with Anaheim.

It will be interesting to see what the Jays do. For top hitting OF who is out there and who is available?

• FA OF: Randy Arozarena - 151 wRC+ this year, 128 lifetime but very poor on defense in LF - a born DH. Jake Bauers 144 wRC+ this year, just 100 lifetime so a risk, poor defense at LF/RF/1B.
• FA 2B: Brandon Lowe: 121 wRC+ this year, 123 lifetime. First really good year on defense for him so hard to know if he can stay at 2B long term. But damn would that be nice eh?

That is a fast check of the obvious FA targets. Any of those 3 would be a big plus. But obviously the Jays would do a TON of checking to make sure they are likely to not collapse in '27. IMO they should be scouting the crap out of Japan right now, seeing who might be coming over as Okamoto was a success 112 wRC+ 2.8 fWAR 2.4 bWAR in his first year here.

Keith Law’s preseason prediction for the Blue Jays was 85 wins, fourth place in the AL East. People got mad when I mentioned that back in March, saying that his prediction was unjustifiably pessimistic, but in the end he actually overestimated how Toronto would perform.

Doubt he predicted 0 guys would start 30, Gausman traded after 23 starts (2nd most on team behind Cease's 29), Yesavage at 19 (probably gets a 20th this weekend), Scherzer 17 with a 6.14 ERA, and #5 is Patrick Corbin with 15 starts. 11 for Bieber, 10 for Fisher (!). Also 8 for Spencer Miles (rule 5 pick). 16 different guys getting starts. But a 113 ERA+ despite that somehow.

The killer was the 90 OPS+ though - just 7 guys at 100 or better (Springer dead on 100 at the moment). For 100+ PA Bret Bateman leads at 124 OPS+, for 250+ Kirk at 112, for 500+ Okamoto at 106. Vlad at 92 was a massive disappointment.

Now, if by some miracle Vlad has a hot final weekend he could climb back to 100, but it is super-unlikely. More likely is Springer dropping back under 100.

Predicting that Miles would be a stud or that Guerrero would not hit 10 homeruns would have impressed me.

Law predicted that the Orioles would win the division and that the Rays would have an early fire sale. 

"Keith Law’s preseason prediction for the Blue Jays was 85 wins, fourth place in the AL East. People got mad when I mentioned that back in March, saying that his prediction was unjustifiably pessimistic, but in the end he actually overestimated how Toronto would perform."

IF you keep taking one random comment out of many and use it as a point to try to prove others opinions were wrong or that you were justified in your own opinions because the one you decide to highlight in retrospect worked out while the rest of them did not...how do you not expect to get eye rolls around here? It's every year all year...

You do not need to have something proven right to validate your opinion and picking the comments you made in the past that didn't fail miserably to defend your opinion after the fact is pointless and irrelevant because we all know most of the points didn't pan out.

There's what, 10 regular posters on this site? The ones that are the most accurate are the ones that post the least and if you go through the archives they NEVER come back to say "hey just so everybody knows I made a comment (insert however many months or years ago it was) and it turns out I was right. *pats himself/herself on back.

Come on man...

Paging Mark Hulet ... I am reading online that Jojo Parker may be an option next year in the bigs. I've read elsewhere 2029 is more realistic which sounds normal. Is it in the realm of likelihood or even 50/50 that Jojo Parker could be a realistic regular by end of next season?

He's an option if he puts out the numbers, but why would anyone put that kind of pressure on the kid.
Parker is only 20 years old.

Arraez has been a flop with Philadelphia. 82 OPS+.
He was great with the non-contending Giants.

Keith Law’s preseason prediction for the Blue Jays was 85 wins, fourth place in the AL East

And for fifth place in the AL East, he chose... Tampa. And the Mariners over the Mets in the World Series.

He somehow missed the complete and utter collapse of Vladimir Guerrero Jr, too.

It’s worth going back and looking at the predictions thread from March. Basically, we were all wrong, sometimes wildly wrong, in our predictions for 2026. Which proves, yet again, that nobody knows anything.*

* Except Keith Law, occasionally.

If you always predict the Blue Jays to be bad, you will well do well from time to time.

That my friend, nobody can argue.

Let's predict if and how bad Vlad gets booed tonight by the home fans. The amount of writing and podcasting on his comments is more than the trade deadline coverage...

I was more optimistic than most I had the Jays at 93 wins and 1st Wild Card. So off by about 15 wins or so.

"The amount of writing and podcasting on his comments..."

Is not surprising, but is frustrating to me.

I must be the only fan in Jays-world that could not give less of a crap about those comments.

I'm much more interested in him getting his mental health balance right before next year than I am him saying out loud what you're not supposed to say out loud.

I similarly don't care about the comments. And I'd clap and give an ovation to Vlad if lots of people are booing. I don't think booing is appropriate for struggles that are trying. I'd leave booing for villains and people who obviously aren't trying.

I agree. I think this is mostly just the media needing something to cover and generate clicks/views from. I think overall Vladdy is a good teammate and a hard worker. He’s had a tough season, let’s give him a break and a chance to reset for a mentally and physically healthy and productive 2027 season (if we have a season).