Now that we've had an amazing 2025, what does the future hold for this team? Let's look at projections and top free agents to start
So, with that info what do we see as possible improvements? Jays are likely to get one top player for one of 2B/3B/LF/RF (Clement & Barger's flexibility enables this) but after doing that we'll have a few guys left hanging = you can't have Straw/Loperfido/Schneider/Lukes all on the bench after all. There is a 13 batter limit meaning just 4 on the bench. One bench slot is for Heineman, then comes an IF and an OF with 1 last slot probably for another OF (although Schneider has the advantage of being both OF and 2B thus very useful off the bench, I expect them to work on his defense at 3B and 1B in spring as well). Straw is the only backup who has a guaranteed contract for 2026 which gives him a major leg up, mixed with his high end CF defense (highly valued by this club). So I expect at least one of Lukes/Schneider to be traded if not both. With IKF, a spring invite yes, but guaranteed deal? The other guys on the market who are super-utilty types would probably be better suited (Castro can play everywhere but had a poor year on defense after being solid in the past, Rosario has historically been a negative on defense but has a 100 wRC+ bat, Rengifo had a poor year in all respects but had 3 years of 100+ OPS+ before that mostly at 2B/3B). In truth the more I look at it the more I like just using Jiménez as the backup infielder with IKF in AAA if he'll take it.
Using FanGraphs (easy to do mergers of multiple data sources there via assorted ID's they provide). Blue Jays current and 2025 players first.
A Y under 26 means they are still with the team as of today. Projections are from Steamer (not the best imo, but only one fully available at the moment).
| Real stats | Projected '25 | Spread | Playoffs | Projected '26 | ||||||||||||||
| 26 | Pos | B | Name | G | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | WAR | wRC+ | BsR | WAR | wRC+ | WAR | wRC+ | wRC+ | A/O/S | WAR |
| Y | DH | R | G Springer | 140 | .309 | .399 | .560 | 166 | 5.2 | 107 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 59 | 3.0 | 147 | 107 | .241/.322/.396 | 2.2 |
| Y | C | R | A Kirk | 130 | .282 | .348 | .421 | 116 | 4.7 | 113 | -0.9 | 3.8 | 2 | 0.9 | 132 | 114 | .267/.344/.394 | 3.8 |
| Y | 1B | R | V Guerrero | 156 | .292 | .381 | .467 | 137 | 3.9 | 147 | -1.4 | 4.4 | -10 | -0.5 | 241 | 147 | .291/.371/.500 | 4.4 |
| -- | 2B/SS | R | B Bichette | 139 | .311 | .357 | .483 | 134 | 3.8 | 120 | -0.9 | 3.5 | 14 | 0.3 | 165 | 120 | .286/.330/.444 | 3.5 |
| Y | 3B/2B | R | E Clement | 157 | .277 | .313 | .398 | 98 | 3.2 | 95 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 1.2 | 171 | 95 | .263/.294/.395 | 2.1 |
| Y | CF | L | D Varsho | 71 | .238 | .284 | .548 | 123 | 2.2 | 106 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 16 | -1.1 | 97 | 106 | .225/.297/.432 | 3.3 |
| Y | RF/3B | L | A Barger | 135 | .243 | .301 | .454 | 107 | 2.2 | 110 | -1.1 | 2.5 | -3 | -0.3 | 188 | 110 | .245/.316/.417 | 2.5 |
| Y | C | S | T Heineman | 64 | .289 | .361 | .416 | 120 | 2.1 | 76 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 44 | 1.2 | -100 | 76 | .215/.305/.290 | 0.9 |
| Y | OF | L | N Lukes | 135 | .255 | .323 | .407 | 103 | 1.8 | 109 | -0.7 | 1.8 | -5 | 0.0 | 90 | 109 | .272/.333/.392 | 1.8 |
| Y | OF | R | M Straw | 137 | .262 | .313 | .367 | 91 | 1.8 | 78 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 13 | 0.3 | -26 | 78 | .238/.301/.314 | 1.5 |
| Y | LF/2B | R | D Schneider | 82 | .234 | .361 | .436 | 127 | 1.3 | 111 | -0.1 | 2.6 | 16 | -1.3 | 110 | 112 | .220/.323/.411 | 2.6 |
| Y | SS/2B | L | A Giménez | 101 | .210 | .285 | .313 | 70 | 1.0 | 109 | 2.4 | 4.6 | -38 | -3.6 | 73 | 109 | .266/.328/.398 | 4.6 |
| Y | OF | L | J Loperfido | 41 | .333 | .379 | .500 | 148 | 0.7 | 99 | -0.2 | 1.7 | 48 | -1.0 | -100 | 100 | .230/.300/.403 | 1.7 |
| -- | 1B | R | T France | 37 | .277 | .320 | .372 | 92 | 0.2 | 113 | -1.0 | 1.7 | -22 | -1.4 | 37 | 113 | .262/.340/.398 | 1.7 |
| Y | IF | R | M Stefanic | 9 | .182 | .280 | .182 | 40 | 0.0 | 109 | -1.0 | 2.0 | -70 | -2.0 | -- | 109 | .277/.354/.359 | 2.0 |
| -- | IF | R | IKF | 19 | .233 | .258 | .367 | 72 | -0.1 | 81 | 0.2 | 1.0 | -8 | -1.0 | 7 | 81 | .262/.307/.346 | 1.0 |
| Y | OF | S | J Clase | 34 | .210 | .288 | .300 | 69 | -0.3 | 90 | 1.6 | 2.0 | -21 | -2.3 | -- | 90 | .223/.293/.369 | 2.0 |
| Y | IF | R | L Jiménez | 18 | .069 | .129 | .172 | -19 | -0.3 | 105 | -0.7 | 2.1 | -125 | -2.4 | -- | 105 | .234/.339/.355 | 2.1 |
| Y | DH/LF/RF | S | A Santander | 54 | .175 | .271 | .294 | 61 | -0.9 | 128 | -1.1 | 3.3 | -68 | -4.3 | 29 | 128 | .249/.321/.489 | 3.3 |
Now for the top free agent hitters and projections - I'm sure I'll have missed someone but I tried to limit to those with a 1+ fWAR projection. Murakami is Japan stats for 2025 of course with his projection from ZIPS.
I split off the DH/1B only types as obviously the Jays won't be after those no matter how good they may be. I was tempted to cut off the catchers too as I can't imagine they'll go for a new backup but one never knows.
FYI: there are tons of others, you can find the ML free agents at Free Agent Tracker on FanGraphs. The * after their name indicates they have a Qualifying Offer thus cost draft picks. Jays made a QO to Bo but that doesn't affect them with signing him.
| Real stats '25 | Projected '26 | ||||||||||
| Pos | B | Name | G | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | WAR | G | wRC+ | WAR |
| RF | L | K Tucker* | 136 | .266 | .377 | .464 | 136 | 4.5 | 125 | 136 | 3.7 |
| 3B | R | A Bregman | 114 | .273 | .360 | .462 | 125 | 3.5 | 143 | 119 | 3.6 |
| 2B | R | B Bichette | 139 | .311 | .357 | .483 | 134 | 3.8 | 131 | 120 | 3.6 |
| 3B/1B | L | M Murakami | 56 | .273 | .379 | .663 | 210 | n/a | 122 | 126 | 3.4 |
| 2B | R | G Torres* | 145 | .256 | .358 | .387 | 113 | 2.6 | 143 | 112 | 2.8 |
| OF/1B | L | C Bellinger | 152 | .272 | .334 | .480 | 125 | 4.9 | 137 | 115 | 2.7 |
| 3B | R | E Suárez | 159 | .228 | .298 | .526 | 125 | 3.8 | 141 | 108 | 2.4 |
| CF | L | T Grisham* | 143 | .235 | .348 | .464 | 129 | 3.2 | 110 | 106 | 2.0 |
| IF | R | H-S Kim | 48 | .234 | .304 | .345 | 82 | 0.3 | 120 | 100 | 2.0 |
| 2B/3B | S | J Polanco | 138 | .265 | .326 | .495 | 132 | 2.6 | 111 | 114 | 1.9 |
| C | R | J.T. Realmuto | 134 | .257 | .315 | .384 | 94 | 2.1 | 103 | 94 | 1.6 |
| CF | R | H Bader | 146 | .277 | .347 | .449 | 122 | 3.2 | 108 | 92 | 1.2 |
| CF | L | C Mullins | 133 | .216 | .299 | .391 | 94 | 1.3 | 98 | 92 | 1.2 |
| UT | S | W Castro | 120 | .226 | .313 | .366 | 92 | 0.6 | 120 | 91 | 1.1 |
| UT | R | A Rosario | 63 | .276 | .309 | .436 | 106 | 0.4 | 70 | 96 | 1.0 |
| UT | S | L Rengifo | 147 | .238 | .287 | .335 | 73 | 0.0 | 88 | 94 | 1.0 |
| C | R | D Jansen | 98 | .215 | .321 | .399 | 103 | 1.3 | 76 | 99 | 1.0 |
| OF | L | M Yastrzemski | 147 | .233 | .333 | .403 | 106 | 2.3 | 98 | 102 | 1.0 |
| C/1B | S | V Caratini | 114 | .259 | .324 | .404 | 104 | 0.8 | 65 | 102 | 1.0 |
| DH/OF | L | K Schwarber* | 162 | .240 | .365 | .563 | 152 | 4.9 | 143 | 130 | 2.7 |
| 1B | R | P Alonso | 162 | .272 | .347 | .524 | 141 | 3.6 | 147 | 125 | 2.3 |
| 1B | L | J Naylor | 147 | .295 | .353 | .462 | 128 | 3.1 | 133 | 119 | 2.2 |
| 1B | L | L Arraez | 154 | .292 | .327 | .392 | 104 | 0.9 | 128 | 109 | 1.4 |
| DH | R | M Ozuna | 145 | .232 | .355 | .400 | 114 | 1.2 | 113 | 116 | 1.1 |
| 1B/DH | L | R O'Hearn | 144 | .281 | .366 | .437 | 127 | 3.0 | 102 | 111 | 1.1 |
So, with that info what do we see as possible improvements? Jays are likely to get one top player for one of 2B/3B/LF/RF (Clement & Barger's flexibility enables this) but after doing that we'll have a few guys left hanging = you can't have Straw/Loperfido/Schneider/Lukes all on the bench after all. There is a 13 batter limit meaning just 4 on the bench. One bench slot is for Heineman, then comes an IF and an OF with 1 last slot probably for another OF (although Schneider has the advantage of being both OF and 2B thus very useful off the bench, I expect them to work on his defense at 3B and 1B in spring as well). Straw is the only backup who has a guaranteed contract for 2026 which gives him a major leg up, mixed with his high end CF defense (highly valued by this club). So I expect at least one of Lukes/Schneider to be traded if not both. With IKF, a spring invite yes, but guaranteed deal? The other guys on the market who are super-utilty types would probably be better suited (Castro can play everywhere but had a poor year on defense after being solid in the past, Rosario has historically been a negative on defense but has a 100 wRC+ bat, Rengifo had a poor year in all respects but had 3 years of 100+ OPS+ before that mostly at 2B/3B). In truth the more I look at it the more I like just using Jiménez as the backup infielder with IKF in AAA if he'll take it.
Now, sign 2 hitters and suddenly Clement probably becomes a super-utility guy and lots of shuffling goes on. Or you deal Barger to get some high end pitching. Or any of 1001 other possibilities. The ways this puzzle can be made had me go back and forth on how to write this up. Jays current payroll (Cot's) is at $237,038,723 vs last years $278,806,692 (payroll tax payroll that is). So in theory the Jays have $41 mil left over to spend. The threashold went up by $4 mil year over year so that makes it more like $45 mil. You want a star starting pitcher, a solid hitter, and a closer ideally. Each costs $20-$30 mil for top end talent, perhaps as much as $40 if you want Tucker. Bo right now is expected to be around $25-$30 mil per for 8 years, I could see the Jays going for a lower per year but for more years (ages 28-40 perhaps - so 13 years at $20 per = $260 mil, seems high but would lock him and Vlad together for their careers no matter what while reducing the tax burden today, if he'd take some deferred it'd go down further - $260 would tie him with Nolan Arenado for 21st all time, ahead of A-Rod's first contract, Cano, Yelich, Correa to name a few infielders). Note: BR has Dante Bichette as lifetime $42.8 mil while Bo is at $33.6 right now so he is a lock to make far, far more than his Dad did - and he'll likely lock in more than Vlad Sr made lifetime ($125.5 mil).
So, the big question is how will the Jays navigate this winter? Will they do big long term lock in's hoping to lock up a long term team regardless of cost? No one knows what the market will look like next winter (lockout likely) or if there will be a 2027 ML season (if owners decide they want a salary cap or nothing then we all get nothing) or how the luxury tax or whatever is setup post negotiations will work. Lots of variables. I just hope they go for it in 2026.
So, the big question is how will the Jays navigate this winter? Will they do big long term lock in's hoping to lock up a long term team regardless of cost? No one knows what the market will look like next winter (lockout likely) or if there will be a 2027 ML season (if owners decide they want a salary cap or nothing then we all get nothing) or how the luxury tax or whatever is setup post negotiations will work. Lots of variables. I just hope they go for it in 2026.
Note: I didn't add minor leaguers who didn't have ML time in 2025 as few hitters are that close (Brandon Valenzuela will get some catching time, Charles McAdoo or Josh Kasevich might get some IF time, RJ Schreck or Yohendrick Pinango could get some time in the OF, but that's about it and only as injury cover). I'd be very shocked if any of them got more than 50 PA outside of a major injury situation or the team collapsing.



