Lukes still has one minor league option left and Schneider still has two. Lukes is the wrong side of 30, Davis is 26, so if any of them don't make the team they don't need to be traded, they can also play at AAA and be there for depth/injury replacements. I agree that maybe if a good trade is there and you don't have room for them you trade them; however, your hand isn't forced and having them flip between MLB and AAA as needed is still quite workable.

The projected wRC+ and WAR for 2026 are the same for 2025 all down the line....import the wrong numbers?

Crap. I'll have to double check which is which.

Fixed, the 2026 projections grabbed the 2025 data at first, so now it is correct.  Phew, good catch.  | really shouldn't put these out at 2 AM.

I was wondering why Andres Giminez was projected for 4.6 WAR for 2025 based on what we saw this past season. Looking at his career stats, starting in 2022 he had 7.4 WAR, 2023 5.0, 2024 4.0. and last season 1.1. His batting average was down 40 points and his OPS declined for the 4th straight year. I know injuries played a part in his output this past season but you have to be a bit concerned when a players batting stats keep going down each year.

That being said, he looked better with the bat in the playoffs.

Hitting projections are quite good, and basically are like scanning the back of a baseball card if your brain was good enough to value each stat correctly.

But I've always taken the defensive projections with a heaps of salt. A lot just seems to be age+position aging curves or something.

For example, here's Varsho's actual defensive value according to fangraphs the last few years:

2023: 581pa, +11.4, +12.8/650
2024: 513pa, +13.7, +17.4/650
2025: 271pa, +3.9, +9.4/650

and his current projection:

2026: 595pa, -3.7, -4.0/650


what criteria is it using to project him completely falling off he defensive cliff next year from elite to plain bad? i have no idea.

and a reminder that the fangraphs projections are just the STEAMER projections now. Eventually they will also incorporate the ZIPS projections to give us more fullsome projections.

In fact Dan just posted a sneak peak of his first team zips non-final projections for the rockies on twitter so hopefull we'll get a peek at the jays sometime soon.

An old Jay to check on is potential HOF'er Carlos Delgado whose career ended earlier than it should've (injuries).

Age 28-end: ended at age 37 with just 26 games played that year. But in that stretch had 33 bWAR which is a lot. But after the first 5 years just 7.6 (vs 25.4 in 28-32 years). A good reminder that any long term deal for Bo will be mainly for the first 5 years with years 6-end being to spread out the payments a bit (reduce tax hit). Funny, the Jays did his career perfectly - they had him through age 32, catching all his 3+ WAR seasons ($87,299,000), Marlins had one year at 2.8 ($4 mil), Mets paid a lot to get his bad years (4.8 WAR total for $55 million). JPR was very cold dumping on Delgado due to his contract (signed by Ash) then letting him go without the arbitration offer needed to get a draft pick for losing him. Boy I don't miss those days of the Jays acting like a small market team.

Assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense is leaving the Jays to join the Giants coaching staff.

Kind of surprised this didn't get a few more comments. Figured some debates about who would be more useful as a FA target would start up.

• The more I look the more I feel letting Bo go and signing Bellinger makes a lot of sense - he'll be cheaper than Tucker and has high end defense in the OF plus decent speed still to go with a 119 wRC+ lifetime figure and 125 last year (115 projected for '26). A LH bat he'd be perfect in the 2 hole between Springer & Vlad.
• If the Jays want to go bigger budget then Tucker works too - solid defense normally (poor stats last year, but maybe he doesn't like running into brick walls) 138 lifetime wRC+, 136 last year, projected at 136 for next. Again, a LH bat so he'd fit in the 2 hole very nicely. A high OBP guy.
• Lower budget? Eugenio Suárez at 3B could work instead - 113 lifetime wRC+, 125 last year, but entering age 34 season he'll need fewer years and $ to sign. 49 HR last year was a WOW, but just projected at 108 for next year. As a RH hitter he'd be a similar fit to Bo in the lineup. He actually is scarily similar to Santander in the respect of being an all power guy but with decent 3B defense vs Santander being a poor corner OF for defense. No QO so just cash needed.
• Alex Bregman? He is high budget per year, but fewer years due to entering his age 32 season. Great D, solid O with a 133 lifetime wRC+ and 125 last year, projected at 119 for 2026. If he was a LH instead of RH batter he'd be nearly perfect. Again, no QO so only costs cash.
• Gleyber Torres at 2B is possible - 114 lifetime wRC+, 113 last year, 112 projected. Meh to poor on defense though. Plus has a QO. I see him as an emergency 'we gotta get someone' option late in the winter ala Santander last year.
• Jorge Polanco had a great year in Seattle, 132 wRC+ but 112 lifetime, 114 projected. His defense was bad at 3B/2B so was mainly a DH last year. Another 'sign if desperate' option.

I list a lot of options above but those are the ones I see as most interesting. Most of the others I don't see as a real improvement over Schneider/Lukes in a corner and Clement/Barger in the infield which is the default until someone is signed. Bo would be nice, but I fear he'll age like Garciaparra did.

Apparently Buxton is contemplating waiving his NTC as the Twins seem to be burning it all down. He is a centre fielder but Varsho may be gone by year-end 2026. Byron has three years left on his contract, with a reasonable AAV. What could the Jays be willing / able to trade for him? Also, the Twins may be contemplating trading Joe Ryan and / or Pablo Lopez as starters as part of the tear-down plan’. Does this news open up other possibilities?

I think Kyle Tucker makes more sense than Bichette as a Jays target but it will come down to cost and years. Since 2020, Tucker and Vladdy have an identical wRC+ (141), and 12 months from now the Jays won’t have any starting OF under contract unless Barger becomes one full time. They could use a long-term OF option. The other added benefit to Tucker instead of Bo is that Barger would then move to 3B (presumably with Tucker and Santander in the OF corners). He passed the eye test there for me, and a competent 3B with his offensive potential is a much more valuable commodity.

With that said, sign the best player available to you. Realistically given their history, it might be Bichette for the Jays.

Buxton would be sweet - lifetime just 114 wRC+ but a 136 last year, 140 the year before that, just projected for a 119 in 2026 at age 32. More often than not a positive defensively but has always been a CF - would he adjust to a corner OK? Signed for 3 more years at $15.1 per but has up to $11 mil per year in performance bonus' available ($3-8 mil for a top 10 in MVP voting, up to $2.5 mil for 502 to 625 PA in $500k increments). Has full no-trade protection though so the Jays would need to sell him on coming here (I suspect Berrios & Varland would be a part of the recruiting effort, if Berrios is in a good mood about the Jays which he might not be).

What would he cost? Twins would want significant assets I'd think given he has a below market deal. Twins need starting pitching badly (as do most teams) and infielders who can hit (especially 1B). Not sure we have a good match there.

I think maybe the lack of discussion on this is all of us in a bit of shock that we're looking at the market and realistically thinking we might just sign 2-3 of the top names available.

A Varsho extension would be enough for me.

I think people are underrating just how good Tucker is. Since 2021, when Tucker became a full-time player, he is 10th overall in WAR. Every single season, he's been between 4.2-4.9 FWAR. He was also killed by Wrigley last season. 113 WRC+ at home and 156 on the road. He has skills that I think are likely to age well. I think re-signing Bo gives team more flexibility (Barger in OF and can come into IF if needed. If signing Tucker, Schneider becomes backup IF). Signing both would be awesome of course but very unlikely IMO as Jays #1 need is probably a front-line starter and they will certainly add at least one reliever. Of course, if they can trade for starter who isn't expensive (like Ryan), then maybe they can spend more on hitting. They have the money, they should use it.

One interesting thought is that Framber Valdez is an extreme GB pitcher. If you have Gimenez and Clement up the middle in that IF, you are really using your D to your advantage.

Valdez intentionally drilling his own C (and being completely unapologetic in the days afterward) is totally antithetical to what we just watched from the Jays in 2025. I think there is zero chance that the Jays have an interest in Valdez.

It's just for me so much of Tucker's value apparently comes from defense and baserunning. But this is a guy who is strictly a corner OF - despite his speed and apparently good defense, he's never played CF outside of emergencies - even though CF hasn't been a position of strength for many or most of his teams.

As for baserunning - I just don't know how much value I actually place on it, or how reliable and projectible it is.

His offense looks better when you include his half-season in 2024, but that half season really really looks like an outlier. His offense has consistently been in the good to very good but not great tier every other year of his career.

He's very good obviously, but i just can't see a strictly corner OF at best with a likely 135wrc+ being worth the top contract on the market.

Agreed, there is no chance the Jays go after Valdez. They had the perfect storm of team chemistry last season, and while there will be changes to the roster, I don't think they add someone who did what Valdez did to his catcher.

One thing the Jays value very much with starting pitchers is durability. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up paying big for Dylan Cease. At least 32 starts in each of the last 5 seasons, and averaged a 4.1 fWAR over that span. If the Jays are looking for a Gausman type of signing, then I think this is the one (obviously for more money/years).

Jays talked to Edwin Diaz' agents.

I have no love for spending huge on RP, but Diaz at least is a legit very very good one.

"He's very good obviously, but i just can't see a strictly corner OF at best with a likely 135wrc+ being worth the top contract on the market."

Since 2021, he has the exact same WRC+ as Vlad. Over the last 3 seasons, he has a 147 WRC+ which is 7th best in baseball (Vlad is 10th). He isn't Soto or Ohtani but he's an excellent player. Roughly, he's been Vlad except he has better secondary skills and is 3 years older. He's been a top-20 player in baseball over the last 5 years and over the last 3 years. Seems pretty damn valuable to me and pretty easily the #1 free agent on the market.

He is universally considered the best position player FA on the market.

Bichette, to me, is the 2nd.

yeah Glevin i don't find that particularly convincing.

("bat" = the batting portion of war)

Age 21-23: 372pa, 104wrc+, 2.0bat, +3.5bat/650
Age 24: 567pa, 146wrc+, 31.8bat, +36.7bat/650
Age 25: 609pa, 130wrc+, 20.3bat, +21.7bat/650
Age 26: 674pa, 139wrc+, 31.8bat, +30.7bat/650
Age 27: 339pa, 179wrc+, 30.7bat, +58.9bat/650
Age 28: 597pa, 136wrc+, 25.5bat, +27.8bat/650

Career: 3158pa, 138wrc+, 142.0at, +29.2bat/650


That half season in 2024 there is the only time Kyle has put up performance on a level that Vladdy gave us at ages 21 and 25, and then in the playoffs this year again.

There's a good reason why STEAMER projects Kyle at 136wrc+ next year and Vladdy at 153.

I think we know what to expect from Tucker - and it's very good - but i don't know if i'd want to lock in an elite contract to that production.

No idea why anyone would be surprised the Jays are fishing at the top end of the FA pond - they've been doing that since the winter of 2019-2020 (Ryu-Springer-Gausman-Bassitt-Santander were all top 10 (well, Bassitt was #13) FA guys. The past few they've gone hard for Ohtani and Soto - the top guys in each market, perhaps a bit too hard given they then flopped on the market after.

This year they are in on pretty much everyone - but now have the cache of being seen as a place you want to play. AL champions, 2 outs or 2 inches from a title depending how one looks at it. So who to chase hardest? Tucker, Bo, Cease are the top 3 and all would fit in quite nicely. #4 Munetaka Murakami could be a fit too - weird we haven't heard a peep about him in the rumor mill as he has to sign by 5 p.m. on Dec. 22 or he goes back to Japan. I'm guessing he is going through initial offers (remote presentations, etc.) before flying over to meet with his top few choices. #5 is Bregman who looked like a fit last time he was a free agent (last winter) and still could be. Valdez-Imai-Bellinger are 6-8 and all could fit too as could #10 Ranger Suarez. #9 doesn't (Schwarber-DH only)

That is the problem. Anyone who isn't a DH/1B or a C can fit in without an issue thanks to the flexibility this roster has. But with the quality of offense at every position outside of SS (assuming Gimenez stays there) a guy needs to be a 110+ wRC+ guy or he won't be any kind of upgrade, and might need to be a 120+ or have strong defense and a 110 bat. Those guys ain't cheap or easy to get. Thus why Tucker and Bo are both so very tempting to resign and what makes Murakami tempting (if he can actually handle fastballs).

For pitching I'm looking at Valdez due to his overall quality of play, even if he has a lower quality of attitude - I'd need guys to stand up for him before signing him (Vlad, Springer, etc.). Cease is more tempting due to that. Those 2 are the top of the market but Ranger Suárez isn't far behind but is hurt by a lack of durability (sub 30 starts every year, never qualified for the ERA title) and a slower fastball (91.2 last year). Woodruff & King are also solid starters but both also have durability questions. Tatsuya Imai becomes very interesting at that point - over 162 IP each of the past 2 years in Japan (not easy given 6 man rotations and a shorter season) with solid K and BB totals but not eye opening ones. Entering his age 28 season he becomes a very, very tempting target. Lots of top end starter possibilities. I suspect the Jays are focused on Cease-Valdez-Imai as they value durability a lot. So Suarez-Woodruff-King will be their backup choices.

For the pen it is interesting that they are looking seriously at Diaz given his high cost (QO plus $100 mil for 5 demand). He would be sweet to have, but boy is he expensive for 60 innings a year. Entering his age 32 season I'd hesitate to do what he wants (3/$60 makes a lot more sense) but the Jays might if they really feel he is the perfect guy. Lots of other closers out there like Devin Williams (seen as a top of the line guy pre-NYY), Robert Suarez (98.6 fastball), Pete Fairbanks, and others. Each with warts, each with potential to be a lock down. Plus options for setup such as Steven Matz (LH) since we could really use a reliable LH reliever and he'll be cheaper than most (yes, the same guy who started here in '21). Sean Newcomb is a guy who had a lot of relief games plus 5 starts and was over 90 IP so he could be a swingman potentially from the left side (started his first 5 of the season, then was in the pen the rest of the year - 4.43 ERA in those 5 starts so not bad, might be after a team that'll let him start).

Hopefully I'll get around to doing a page on the pitching options soon. But those are where the team can make the biggest gains - the spread from Lauer-Francis-etc. to an ace could be massive, and with 1-4 being Gausman-Bieber-Berrios-Yesavage there is a big risk of needing a #6 early on too. Remember, Yesavage is just entering his 2nd pro season so some regression is almost a guarantee. Lauer one can't count on as he signed a minor league deal last winter with the Jays (for over a million, but AAA none the less).

I think we generally agree Ugly. Tucker is a very good player but not worth Soto money or anything. For example, fangraphs crowdsourcing has him at 8/$280 which is $35M a year. Is it a lot? Sure, but I don't think it's insane to pay for a very good player. Ben Clemens has him at 10/$370 which I think is too much because you're adding way more to years where he's unlikely to have any value.

MLBTR says the Jays are in on almost every decent reliever - no shock at this stage of the offseason. Common sense to check what each wants and then decide which is the best combo of price vs value going forward. Diaz is high $/high reward. But many others could be high reward for meh $ or even low $. Ryan Helsley was damn good for 2022-2024 (1.83 ERA 82 saves, 3.2 BB/9 12.1 K/9) before a bad 2025 (4.50 ERA 21 saves, 4.0 BB/9 vs 10.1 K/9. His fb dipped a touch from 99.8 to 99.3 but not enough to go 'oh crap', his HR/9 jumped when he joined the Mets mid-season to 1.8 per 9 IP vs a 1.0 in StL and 0.41 in '24. The question becomes why did he suck so bad with the Mets. Much like Devin Williams with the Yankees - did going to NY just mess him up? Williams actually when one looks at the underlying data appears to have been a lot like he was pre-NYY but just had bad luck there. He looks like a good one to chase down. Pete Fairbanks is the oddball - his stats didn't look bad last year, but the Rays didn't pick up his option - makes one wonder if there is some problem we can't see there. Robert Suarez is also there (entering age 35 season) - led the NL in saves (40) 98.6 fastball, only guy with more saves than Hoffman last year who is available.

But on the surface, any of those guys would be a solid closer imo. Any 2 would probably cost about what Diaz on his own would cost. So how far do the Jays go? Diaz is the gold plated, diamond studded option, Suarez will want similar cash per year (fewer years - 3 is the max he'd get at his age, 2 far more likely) but won't get it. Helsley-Williams-Fairbanks are the might flop, but might be as good as Diaz options. Only Diaz has a QO attached. And of course, we have no idea if any solid relievers are available through trade. I'd lean towards one of the 3 cheaper options instead of Diaz or Suarez as if they slip you have Hoffman here to take over. Suarez is damn tempting if his price is right ($15 mil per for 2?). My guess is Helsley is the most likely (bad luck in 2025, might catch lightning in a bottle there), while Suarez is probably the best $/value guy unless he demands 3+ years or $20+ mil. Fairbanks might end up the bargain of the group in the long run, but Williams catches me as someone who could be happy to stay in the AL East and try to get revenge on the Yankees for not just leaving him in the closer role.

Sandlin was removed from the 40-man. Outright to AAA.

Tucker, Bichette, Framber (unless there are character issues there), and Diaz are a few FAs who could help the Blue Jays win in 2026 and beyond. If Toronto wants to sign a true closer this off-season, as opposed to targeting one at the trade deadline, Diaz is probably the one to get. Give him a five-year contract and accept that there could be at least a couple of bad years in that timeframe.

Other FAs who could be good additions include Bellinger (sort of a less-wealthy person’s alternative to Tucker), Williams, and maybe Okamoto.

And then there are the potential trade targets. I’ve liked Sonny Gray for a while (and suggested the Blue Jays target him when he was a FA after the 2023 season). Not sure how much he has left in the tank at age 36+, though.

Marc - that is a surprise to me - Sandlin looked decent when used, had some injuries but I was certain he was in the Jays plans going forward. Guessing this means they see lots of good opportunities in FA. If Sandlin survives the rule 5 draft then he'll be a nice asset in AAA.

Wonder if this means we'll be seeing someone signed shortly? Also on the 40 man bubble is Justin Bruihl, Paxton Schultz, among many others. 8 man pen as is: Hoffman-Garcia-Varland-Fisher-Little-Fluharty-Rodriguez-Nance. I see Nance, despite pitching well when needed, as a bubble candidate, not sure who'd be next. I suspect the Jays will look at trading a couple of guys if they can find takers. Rodriguez is overpaid for his role (but not to be a starter) so he might be trade bait (if someone else wants him as a starter - say, the A's). Plus of course, if/when a starter is signed Lauer will shift to the pen or be traded.

Right now I suspect the Jays are trying to find a deal where they clear out a few OF'ers - Clase, Loperfido, Lukes, Schneider are all easy ones to move without being a major nightmare on the team going forward - FYI: I expect at least 1 or 2 to survive any trades (Santander-Varsho-Springer-Straw I can't see moving unless the Jays eat a lot of Santander's contract). Plus of course we have Shreck & Pinango in AAA as future depth. I keep hoping we'll hear of a Varsho extension soon.

Fairbanks has Raynaud's syndrome which makes it very difficult to pitch in cold weather. That will keep his price down.

Yeah, that could be a big problem. The dome helps here, but wouldn't help in NY/Boston/etc. which cuts his market down a lot, plus makes him a liability for road games in the playoffs.

Releasing Sandlin shows the difference in the team in last couple of years to me. Sandlin is an OK middle reliever but a world series contender doesn't need to wait around for someone like that and the money is better spent on a high leverage guy. Don't accept mediocity. As of now, bullpen:

For sure:
Hoffman, Garcia, Varland, Fisher

Options:
Little, Lauer, Fluharty, Bastardo, Yariel, Nance

Ideally, you sign a couple of late inning guys and then only need 2 guys from second group and rest as depth options. Put Lauer as option because maybe Jays want him starting in Toronto as #5 or in Buffalo to fill in. If not, I think he's close to a for sure.

Lauer's in the final year of arbitration. If they offer him a contract next week (and they should), he's going to get too much money to pitch in AAA. His contract projection is $5.3 million... a solid No. 4/5 starter salary. He was very good for them despite a modest ceiling.

The question becomes how to spend the money left. $278 mil last year, $236 mil this year leaves $42 mil of space.

So how to spend that? Using MLBTR for estimates

• Bo: 8/$208 mil = $26 mil per year, leaves $16 mil
• Tucker: 11/$400 mil = $36.4 per, leaves about $6 mil
• Dylan Cease: 7/$189 mil = $27 per, leaves $15 mil
• Munetaka Murakami: 8/$180 mil = $22.5 per, leaves $19.5 mil
• Alex Bregman: 6/$160 mil = $26.7 per, leaves about $15 mil
• Framber Valdez: 5/$150 = $30 per, leaves $12 mil
• Tatsuya Imai: 6/$150 = $25 per, leaves $17 mil
• Cody Bellinger: 5/$140 = $28 per, leaves $14 mil
• Ranger Suarez: 5/$115 = $23 per, leaves $19 mil
• Edwin Diaz: 4/$82 = $20.5 per, leaves $21.5 mil
• Michael King: 4/$80 = $20 per, leaves $22 mil
• Devin Williams: 4/$68 = $17 per, leaves $25 mil
• Brandon Woodruff: 3/$66 = $22 per, leaves $20 mil
• Eugenio Suarez: 3/$63 = $21 per, leaves $21 mil
• Robert Suarez: 3/$48 = $16 per, leaves $26 mil
• Ryan Helsley: 2/$24 = $12 per, leaves $30 mil
• Pete Fairbanks: 2/$18 = $9 per, leaves $33 mil
• Gregory Soto: 2/$18 = $9 per, leaves $33 mil

Lots of options, but if you assume the Jays want to enter 2026 spending what they were spending leaving 2025 then the budget is limited. You could take Helsley as closer with Valdez starting and be done for example. But I don't see a way to get a closer/starter/hitter without blowing past the potential budget. Unless, of course, Rogers agreed to not factor Vlad's big deal into the budget fully (IE: Vlad makes $7 mil more than he did last year, so they give the team an extra $7 mil going forward) but I doubt that would be a big factor, and wouldn't cover the cost of Fairbanks, let along a big gun.

I'd be leaning towards Imai/Helsley/$5 mil left over for a half decent backup. While also pushing Rogers to pony up for Bo on top of that so the club can look good in marketing (or if Rogers is very happy, try to convince them on Tucker). The all Suarez method would be Ranger $23/Eugenio $21/Robert $16 = $60 mil or $18 over budget while adding a starter/hitter/closer.

The more I look the more I think the Jays management agreed with agents (via nudge/nudge/wink/wink) to be a 'scary budget breaker' in rumors in exchange for more consideration with marginal players like Lauer last year and other high end AAAA types.

Of course, in the end these guys won't get these figures, but this is as good a starting point as any. I know that site will be closer than any guesses I'd make.

Thank you, John - you add a ton of value to this site to give us a solid foundation for all the rest of us to make our speculations.

A couple of key questions for a naive person like me:
1) assuming Rogers was willing to pony up beyond last year, including taxes on any potential overage, at what levels do they start paying a price in terms of losing draft picks or international bonus pool money, or does that start at the same threshold as the taxes do?
2) How did the Dodgers evade those penalties via deferments and how much of that approach is accessible to the Jays, if their free agents are willing?
3) If next year opens up much more budget room, can we go over in 2026 knowing we are unlikely to need to repeat the following year?
4) Could we hope to lay off the Santander contract on some team desparate for power and open up room that way?

I recommend people review the threads or look online at the cost of Santander's salary. How does his salary compare to a qualifying offer for a departing free agent and is there any team in baseball that would non-qualify him if he was on their team with this salary? I don't think so.

There's a reason players like Green, Manoah and Sandlin get booted to save money while someone like Santander who is 1. underpaid and 2. offers something very very hard to find, does not.

Remember contracts that are not one year long shouldn't be graded based on one year and forecasted from that, especially when there is so much data pointing to a different picture. Imagine if Steve Cohen listened to Mets fans and found a way to get rid of Edwin Diaz and his bad performance last year. Dude is now firmly planted at the top of the free agent market. Players get injured and underperform all the time. Doesn't mean they should be cut or sent to another team for salary relief unless its some career-ending injury in which case why would anyone take them?

Good questions earlweaverfan (he was a fun manager way back when, ahead of his time, but so fun to watch argue with umps).

• full details here but the gist is if you are $40+ mil over the threshold to pay tax your first round pick is pushed back 10 slots (so the Jays have the 28th overall pick, would be pushed down to 38th). The base for the tax, since it is year 2 for the Jays being over, will be 30% on every dollar, 42% for any $20+ mil over the base, 75% on any over $40 mil, 90% on any payroll over $60 mil. $244 is the base, so the brackets start at $244-$264-$284-$304 million. Last year they were in the 2nd bracket, stayed just under the 3rd. I suspect they'll go into the 3rd this year and might touch the 4th so I'd guess a starting payroll around $290 mil so they have space come trade deadline.
• Deferments are basically a way to shift payments into the future - most players only take them to try to help their team be more competitive while not losing out on raw dollars, but they do lose on investment income from today until they get the cash. The Dodgers, despite deferments, still had a CBT payroll of $415 mil so they got hit with every penalty possible. They paid over $100 mil post 2024 in tax charges, and will be higher once the final figures are announced at some point soon for 2025.
• I don't see how the Jays avoid staying over the luxury tax unless something terrible happens - before factoring in any signings this winter or next they already are on the hook for $138 mil in '27 (Vlad/Berrios/Gimenez/Hoffman/Santander/Kirk/Garcia/Rodriguez) with arbitration for Clement/Heineman/Nance/Francis/Schneider/Lukes & Little.
• Doubt the Jays would be willing to eat the Santander contract right now, nor would any other club want it given no one else signed him last winter coming off a 44 HR season so why would they want him after his disaster of a 25? He is still owed around $40 mil over the next 4 years (over $52 in luxury tax). If he has a solid 2026 then he might be tradeable. FYI: If the Jays pay his salary to trade him then they are still on the hook for it for luxury tax purposes.

Always trying to get more discussion going with facts instead of feelings. By feelings I'd want Bo back, the Jays to go nuts with payroll ala the Dodgers, etc. Last winter most here (myself included) wanted Santander. Who knew he was a mistake to sign? Ah well. This time next year we'll probably say the same about someone in the top 10 free agents - why did team xyz sign this bum? Last year Corbin Burnes was #2 behind Soto, got 6/$210 mil and gave Arizona 11 starts (last June 1st). Yeah, he did well in those 11 but dang if that doesn't hurt. Snell was #4 (Dodgers 5/$182) 11 regular season starts, plus 6 post season games where in 3 the Jays pounded the crap out of him (6.92 ERA over 13 IP). If only IKF didn't slide he'd have had 3 losses. Jack Flaherty looked like a good deal (2/$35 mil) but had just an 89 ERA+ in 31 games. Good inning eater but the Tigers expected more. Sean Manaea for the Mets had a 3 WAR year in '24, but was negative in '25 not what they wanted for 3/$75 mil. That covers the top 10 guys. Some guys did 'wow' (Fried for example for the NYY) but free agency always carries risk. Probably why the Jays are hunting in the trade market for controllable guys.

There seems to have emerged a consensus online that Framber Valdez is simply too toxic (for throwing at his catcher and/or whatever else) and the Jays shouldn’t risk ruining the get-along-gang vibe….but…unless you have Lauer as a rotation piece the Jays potentially have no lefty starters and, much more compellingly (I think), Valdez is the best ground ball pitcher in the game and would have an elite infield behind him…especially if Bo is not one of the people behind him.

Valdez is one of those enigma's - is he a bad person to have on a team or not? As I've said a few times, get Vlad and Springer to talk to him or just to management and see what their opinions are. If both say 'sign him' then go for it, but try to get a discount due to the issues around him. I'd bid around $25 mil per and tell him you like his skills but the questions are hanging around him and you don't want to risk the way the team was so together last year. Perhaps see if he would talk with Kirk too in order to deal with catcher/pitcher issues.

In truth, if I ran a ML team I'd have my top players on speed dial all winter. Before any major signings I'd talk with them, perhaps even at the start of the winter go over the list of top free agents and ask for opinions on them. Tell the player we obviously can't get everyone but that you want to know opinions on if these guys will fit in or not and why not if not.

If the Jays sign just 1 player this winter over $5 mil per season who would you want it to be? For maximum value I'd go for a starting pitcher, Valdez/Cease/Imai/Ranger Suarez - one of those guys. If a hitter I'd say go for the gusto and get Tucker, as then you put Clement at 2B and the weakest fielder in the infield would probably be at 3B in Barger. The advantage of Imai or Suarez is there should be cash for a reliever on top of them, or more cash for mid-season trades (likely for more relief help). With Garcia hopefully healthy and Varland around from day 1 the pen should be a lot better no matter what. The worst case lineup (no additions) is still damn good. Barger & Clement in the infield with a corner covered by Schneider/Lukes with Loperfido fighting for a spot.

Tucker

If Tucker can be had on a 7-8 year deal (instead of 10+) then he’d be my choice. Bichette’s offensive profile scares me over a long term deal. Tucker’s seems like one that will age a lot more gracefully, and I think there’s real 5+ WAR upside for him if he’s healthy. The question is would signing Tucker prevent a SP signing? I think SP is a much bigger need. Maybe signing Tucker prevents them from going $25M AAV on a starter, which means they’d have to trade for one. If the Jays could afford Tucker, Imai, and a closer, then go for it. Spend big this year and then see what happens with the CBA afterwards.

I am waiting for Magpie's report card. The evaluations about who had a good year and great year.

Springer great.
Barger good.
Hoffman IDK.

There will also be players that had a bad year but should likely bounce back. Yimi Garcia and Santander.

How good will 2026 be? A) Better than 2025. B) Worse than 2025. C) A lot worse than 2025.

Arizona signed Corbin Burnes and he got injured. That injury could be a major factor in them not making the playoffs. This could happen to any team.

"If Tucker can be had on a 7-8 year deal (instead of 10+) then he’d be my choice. Bichette’s offensive profile scares me over a long term deal. Tucker’s seems like one that will age a lot more gracefully, and I think there’s real 5+ WAR upside for him if he’s healthy. The question is would signing Tucker prevent a SP signing? I think SP is a much bigger need. Maybe signing Tucker prevents them from going $25M AAV on a starter, which means they’d have to trade for one. If the Jays could afford Tucker, Imai, and a closer, then go for it. Spend big this year and then see what happens with the CBA afterwards."

Agree except I would term it late-inning reliever and not closer and ideally, they'd get 2 of them. If you take Fangraphs crowdsourced numbers.
Tucker-$35M a year
Bo- $27M a year
Suarez/Gallen/King/Imai-roughly $20-25M a year
2 good relievers (say Helsley and Soto)-Around $20M a year

That's a little over $100M in yearly spending. With Bo, Green, Scherzer, Bassitt, and Sandlin coming off and saving around $75M. That's not including the trade deadline guys who combined made a couple of million probably. Now, Jays are already paying $16M to Bieber and there will be a few salary increases ( Vlad especially) but I don't think this spending would be insane for a team that makes as much money as the Jays do. Do I think the Jays will do it? No, but I think they can (and should). With Springer, Gausman, and Varsho all potentially coming off the books after 2026, Jays will need to replace those guys and this off-season looks a lot better than next for free agents.
That would theoretically make this team something like:
C-Kirk
1B-Vlad
2B-Bo
SS-Gimenez/Clement
3B-Clement/Barger
LF-Tucker/Santander
CF-Varsho
RF-Barger/Tucker
DH-Springer
Bench-Santander (rotating in regularly), Straw, Schneider

SP-Gausman
SP-Bieber
SP-Yesavage
SP-Imai etc...
SP-Berrios/Lauer

Bullpen
Helsley
Hoffman
Garcia
Soto
Varland
Fisher
and then 2 of Little/Fluharty/Bastardo/Lauer/Yariel/Nance

It's a dream for sure but I really hope Jays actually spend this winter.

Who's to say the Jays won't spend more than last year? Ownership has seen that more success equals a lot more revenue. I think Bo will be resigned but I wouldn't want to see a 10 year term.

He hasn't been mentioned much but I'd also like to see Bassitt resigned at less than he made last year for long relief, insurance if a starter goes down. There's a lot that can go wrong with the current rotation through age and past injury history, and even inexperience on Yesavage's part. He wants to come back and might take a good deal just to be on the team.

Tucker seems like a slightly better long-term bet than Bo, because he’s still a decent baserunner and fielder. Both players have had injury issues in recent years, but Bo’s leg issues seem somewhat more concerning going forward.

Maybe Toronto can lessen the impact of Tucker and/or Bo’s contracts on the roster by spreading out the total amount via deferred payments and a longer term.

I'm a bit shocked how much salary is a factor for Beauxites. I can't see a scenario where this team is over the luxury tax in 2027... So many contracts coming off the books and I have faith in the farm system and development improving.

You'd have to sign three contracts totalling over a billion and a half dollars over 10 years before I would start to get concerned about payroll. Having two players like Tucker and Vlad anchoring your team is about the safest place you can be when fielding a contender for years to come. I read a lot of "Sign X if he can be had for (insert fair market value evaluation here)"

Haven't we learned anything from Vlad? There are some players that simply change the equation. Vlad after his new contract made this team better on the field, off the field, during the season, during the post-season and most importantly for the future. I don't care about spending above market for a player of Tucker's caliber for example unless it means this team will be over the luxury tax, pay a penalty and have to cut budget like they did when they had Delgado making 25 million on a 75 million payroll. Does anybody see that happening? I don't think so...

If Bassitt would sign for sub $10 mil as a reliever who is the #6 starter then woohoo, but I don't see it happening - someone will give him 2/$20+ to start I'm certain. He is just too good to be locked into the pen in the regular season.

The payroll pre-free agent signings is already over $235 mil which limits how much more can be done. Vlad, Varsho, Bieber, are big costs, with Clement/Lauer/Heineman going to arbitration as well (net for those 3 is estimated at $10 mil). Schneider/Lukes/Little all reach arbitration in 2027.

So, how to spend the roughly $40-70 mil I figure they have available? First you try to trade away guys who are in arbitration or who have guaranteed contracts who are marginal for us, but would be valuable for others - guys like Lauer ($4), Straw ($7 mil + opt), Rodriguez ($6.4 for 3 more years), Berrios ($18.7 tax, but $19/$24/$24 for 3 years in cash). At the same time you negotiate with the best free agents, and the ones you think will provide the best value for the dollar. Some you have a short window for (Murakami/Imai have 45 day limits), some might have decent alternatives (assorted starting pitchers/closers) while others are clearly the best of their kind on the market (Tucker, Bo, Diaz). So choices need to be made - Signing one big gun is possible, but 2 or more is unlikely. Goals have to be a hitter, a starter, and 2 relievers. I suspect the pen is more 1 high end (closer or recent closer), 1 'meh' (setup or long guy who is reliable). The starter they might go high end (Valdez/Cease) or cheaper (King, Gallen, Woodruff) while accepting the risks of the cheaper options (less likely to stay healthy, less likely to be at an elite level). Hitter has to be elite or isn't worth getting. If not projected at least as a 120 wRC+ I'd have trouble seeing the value as they'd be replacing Lukes/Schneider in the lineup.

Eric Lauer had the third most WAR amongst Blue Jays' pitchers in less than 105 innings.

He obviously won't do that again with full seasons (hopefully) from Yesavage and Bieber, but I'm not sure how that performance at $4-5 million is "marginal." I also don't see a scenario in which they would get commensurate value in a trade for a 31-year-old a year away from free agency.

John, Bieber is not a big cost but a bargain.

I'm quite wary of Bo's production outlook. His defence might bounce back at 2nd base, or it might not, and as others have noted, I'm a little worried his offensive skill set is a little more risky to maintain as he ages.

Funnily enough, my two favourite targets aren't on John's list, so I'd add:

Ha-Seong Kim (2/$30m)
Kyle Schwarber (5/$135m)

I'd target Ha-Seong Kim, who actually had pretty decent underlying offensive indicators despite a superficial decline. Kim would allow you to either move Barger into RF or Clement into a super-sub role. Combined with his defence, I don't think you have a big drop-off from Bichette, and you can shift resources into pursuing Tucker or pitching. Gleyber Torres could

If we don't land Tucker, we need someone else in the outfield mix. If the Jays think Springer can be back in the OF, even on an occasional basis, I like the idea of Kyle Schwarber, the best pure hitter on the market. It's a poor fit with Springer and Santander both on the team, but a) Springer's contract runs for just one more year; b) I'm not at all confident that Santander will be playable and c) even if you have to put Schwarber in LF, his bat is good enough to let you grin and bear it. Schwarber's profile is exactly the kind of player you should think will age reasonably well - for one thing, he doesn't have any defensive value to lose. He's better, of course, but he makes me think of Matt Stairs, who aged very well and was a very good hitter throughout his 30s.

gotta be honest I always here this skepticism about Bo's bat but nobody ever explains what exactly is so risky about his profile.

the guy hits every type of pitch, is amazing at battling in tough counts, hits for contact and for power.....what do people find risky about his profile exactly?

Yeah, the risks to Bo are defense, speed, and health but not hitting. He was ineffective and/or unlucky two years ago, but he's an elite hitter that you can pencil in as being in the conversation for most hits in the AL any year he's healthy. It is true that he doesn't walk much, so if his bat becomes too slow to hit, he could have a steeper decline, but I don't see anything that points to that being likely, certainly not in the next 5-6 years.

Kim I have debated listing a few times, but figure the Jays aren't chasing a guy who isn't 100% yet and has a 100 lifetime wRC+, but just an 82 last year while coming back from injury and was actually a negative on defense in 2025. I'd want a lot of injury reports on him before signing that is for sure.

As to Schwarber - we have 2 guys sharing DH/LF right now, hardly need a 3rd no matter how good a bat he is - well, if he reached Bonds on PED level sure, but that only happens if he gets on super-PEDs.

I don't know that anyone has a good handle on how or whether different offensive skill sets tend to decline at different rates. Bill James had a theory that there were old-player skills and young-player skills; speed being the preeminent young-player skill, and batting eye and power being old-player skills. If I remember correctly, James thought players who lacked old-player skills could sometimes develop them, or lean more on them, and offset the decline in their other skills. If you take that theory for Bo, the problem is that it's kind of hard to see him either becoming more patient at the plate, or leaning into more pull-power as he ages. The other reason I worry about Bo's offensive decline is that he relies quite heavily on his great barrel control. Compared to other hitters, it seems like a narrower path to success. Obviously it does work for him, my only concern is that it might be more vulnerable to age-related decline than more balanced offensive skill sets.

Looking at the trade market the Jays need to be alert to teams dumping payroll. Arizona wants to cut payroll so might Ketel Marte be available? A 2B who had a 145 OPS+ last year, 121 lifetime, signed for 5 more years plus a player option for a 6th at a very low rate, but might be too much for a cheapskate owner - $15 mil next year, then $12 mil, then $20-22 mil the next 3. IMO they'd be nuts to deal him, but they could get some good prospects for him. He is their 3rd highest paid after Corbin Burnes (injured last year, had TJ, not available until mid season) and Eduardo Rodriguez - ERA+ of 85 the past 2 years combined over 204 IP, owed $40 mil over next 2 years plus $6 mil buyout in '28. I could see Arizona wanting to dump one of those 2 with Marte to save a lot of money. Rodriguez had a 111 ERA+ pre-Arizona, Burnes owed $178 mil more over the next 5 years with over $50 mil deferred. Lifetime 132 ERA+ and was very high endurance pre-TJ (190+ IP for 3 years running before it happened) - he could be a nice late season add ala Bieber this year, then a damn fine pitcher for 27-30. Combined Burnes & Marte = $52.3 mil in tax space, which might be in the Jays range (pushes them up to the edge of $300 mil) but would set them up at 2B and ace starter for 5 years. Rodriguez would give them a decent starter right away, but one who has had HR issues but has just a 2 year lock down and net of $40 mil per year in tax eating with Marte.

There might be a deal there. Might get away with just using secondary pieces in a deal too with Arizona being desperate to clear payroll. They say they just want to cut a little, but generally once a club decides on that they cut a lot more. I'm sure the Jays smell opportunity there and will dig into it.

Naylor $18.5 x 5yrs

Maybe a bit pricey, but Naylor is only 28 yrs 4 mos and he seems to be a great fit in Seattle. He actually likes hitting in T-Mobile Park, and Seattle has been consistently weak or mediocre at first base over the years.

Bo's is a very unorthodox hitter.
He's doing things that basically nobody else can do.
Isn't that the definition of risk?

He's got knee issues. He's lost a lot of speed.

So MLBTR had Naylor as the 12th best free agent and had him estimated at 5 year 90M. 5x18.5 is 5 year 92.5 M so that is pretty close (but maybe suggesting market slightly over MLBTR?).

As a reminder their top 5 were:

Tucker 11 years 400M
Bo 8 years 208M
Cease 7 years 189M
Murakami 8 years 180M
Bregman 6 years 160M

Pick your poison, which of those 5, if any would you want on those contract/lengths for the Jays this offseason? If you can have at most one, which is it.

Of those players/contracts, I would opt for Tucker. He can hit, hit for power, run, and play defense. He would slot in nicely as the #2 hitter in the lineup, and he hits lefties and righties well. He is relatively young. Apparently he is most comfortable as a strong supporting player adjacent to a marquee player, which would be the case in Toronto.

Bo is valuable too because of his exceptional hitting skill and I would want him back. But his lack of speed, his injury history, and his defensive ability probably make him a less valuable player overall.

Tucker but to bat clean up.

Looking at the MLBTR projections, if I had to choose one with those numbers, then it would be between Bichette or Cease. I’d probably lean Bo because there are more SP options in free agency, whereas the hitting market other than Bichette and Tucker is limited. I’d be hesitant with Bergman due to age, and 11 years for Tucker is nuts. I don’t think Bichette will age practically well but out of those deals he’s the youngest and the contract would be for his age 28-34 seasons, so fairly reasonable.

With that said, I don’t think Tucker is getting more than 8 years. The demand likely isn’t there due to lack of teams involved.

Hard to say. Tucker is the best player imo, but 11 years is a lot. Cease would be the biggest upgrade vs what is here but I get nervous with pitchers getting hurt.

Tucker 11 years 400M
Bo 8 years 208M
Cease 7 years 189M
Murakami 8 years 180M
Bregman 6 years 160M"

Easily Bo here. Probably Bregman second. Murakami last. Why would I pay more for Murakami who is a risky unknown with huge downside than for a guy who is a consistent 4-WAR player? I wouldn't want Bregman for that but if you look at normal decline his WAR would be something like 4.5/4/3.5/3/2.5/2 for the contract. Even if it's 1-1.5 WAR last couple of seasons, you're getting enough in other years. Tucker is just too many years and too much money. He's the best player available and I think he'll age well but that's Vladdy money minus three years but those years are age 26-29. Way too much for Cease too. And 7 years for a starter is crazy. Would rather get a second-tier starter than pay that for a non-ace. They have Michael King at 4/$80. Suarez at 5/$115, Gallen 4/$80, Imai 6/$150 Valdez 5/$150. I'd rather all of them at those prices over Cease.

Passan with a bunch of notes. Jays interested in Tucker and Bo. One thing he mentions that I dislike is that Jays are interested in Bellinger as a fallback option to Tucker. Bellinger is good player but he's helped enormously by Yankee Stadium because he's a lefty pull hitter in a park with a short RF. 152 WRC+ at home, 97 on the road. He's had such a weird up and down career too that it's very hard to trust him on a long-term deal. Last year, he was a salary dump. This year, he's a top free agent. In his last 5 years, his FWAR had been 4.9, 2.1, 4.4, 1.5, -1.

Bellinger is one I've been up and down on. He is a tough test for a front office. He has had 3 3 year groupings in his career.

1. 2017-2019: 4-3.8-7.8 WAR - IE: WOW
2. 2020-2022: 1.6-(1.0)-1.5 - 2020 is a lot better than it looks due to the 60 game season (adj it is a 4.3 and fits in with period 1)
3. 2023-2025: 4.4-2.1-4.9, not as good as the first set but damn fine. Right there with Tucker.

Strangely he is just entering his age 30 season. However, often players go off a cliff around age 32/33 so there are big time warning signs. NYY used him in all 3 OF positions and 1B last year. So he is the type the Jays LOVE - a guy who has multiple options for where to play. He has a 119 lifetime wRC+ which is damn nice. Solid baserunning and fielding stats too. Low K% (13.7% last year) which again fits in well here. Being a LH bat would put him in perfectly for the #2 slot. 5/$140 is $28 per which is cheaper than many other options (Bo, Tucker). But given 2021/2022/2024 there is a significant risk of him flopping too.

Bregman seems ideal in a few respects - solid defense at 3B to go with solid offense. Allows the IF to be 'wow' on defense, the OF to be a touch better with Barger's arm in RF. 6/$160 = $26.7 per so a touch cheaper than Bellinger but the years are all high risk years - age 32-37, if he'd go for 4 years I'd be more tempted. Those last 2 will almost certainly be write offs (see Jose Bautista - age 36/37 for a late bloomer 0.2 bWAR 87 OPS+). Few players are solid at that age and I can't imagine Bregman will be any different.

I'm getting the sense that their priority is to add a legit lefty bat for the 2-hole. Not sure i agree but that's what it looks like.

Bo for 26MM per year for his ages 28-35 seasons would be a great signing. Springer got 25MM for his ages 31-36 seasons, and that was 5 years ago.

If Bo's market is as extensive as Passan seemed to imply, then I think Tucker is becoming a more realistic outcome for the Jays. I get the sense Tucker's market is likely a lot less than people thought coming into the off-season, especially if the Dodgers are looking elsewhere.

I’m not sure Tucker is going to be so readily available to the Blue Jays. There is a lot of money in baseball, and some other team may step up and blow the others out of the water (the way Texas did when they signed Seager and Semien). Also, we don’t know how open Tucker is to playing in Canada.

It would be really really dumb if we lose Bo. an amazing player who meshes with these teammates and who loves it here.


really really really dumb.

It’s funny to me how much the narratives flip flop to suit the moment.

Maybe he loves it here, but wasn’t he also the one who hated the jacket and wanted it to die? He also didn’t seem like he was enjoying Toronto or his teammates in 2024.

Also, he’s a free agent. HE choses who he signs with. Are you saying it’s dumb of him?

>It would be really really dumb if we lose Bo. an amazing player who meshes with these teammates and who loves it here.

Does he though? The narrative up until this year (now that he needs a contract) was that he hated it here and wanted out - similar to Mitch Marner.

For example, complaining about arbitration, etc. Now that he had a down year, and then a great recovery year (but with a late injury and question marks about how good he'll actually be next year), all of a sudden he loves it here?

It's hard to know which one is the "real" story, or whether - like most athletes - Bo doesn't care one way or the other, as long as he gets paid. It's not like Bo grew up wearing Blue Jays pajamas and would take any kind of discount.

Everything Bo has ever said has been positive. The negative narratives have been pure speculation, fuelled by the perpetually pessimistic types who also told us Vlad would be gone and Shatkins would never build a winner.

"It would be really really dumb if we lose Bo. an amazing player who meshes with these teammates and who loves it here.


really really really dumb."

Don't get this at all. Meshing with teammates/loving it here is only one part of a player's value and it isn't a particularly high one either. Tons of players would mesh and love it here. What if Jays' internal projections have Bo being a 0 WAR player by the time he's 32? Should they sign him for $30M a year until he's 36 because he wants to play with Vlad? I'd love for them to re-sign Bo but the worst thing a team can do is make decisions based on sentimentality. That's how the Rockies operate. It has to make sense.

exactly right Jonny German.

and Glevin - the proof is in the pudding. We know Bo fits here because he's fit here already. We know exactly what he can do here on the field and his effect in the clubhouse.

Throwing that away and gambling on some other expensive player who may or not be better than Bo, and may or may not fit well on this team, is just silly imho.

I figured out a solution. Sign Bo and Tucker. Use lengthy contracts and deferred money to spread out the AAV so that the team payroll doesn't get too lopsided. Add a couple of depth SPs and relievers (in a deep FA/trade market), and everybody will be happy.

The Springer contract has worked out, thanks in part to his remarkable 2025 season. It would look even better had he not suffered some unlucky or flukey injuries during his tenure in Toronto (quad injury 2021, knee injury 2021, head injury during collision with Bo 2022, concussion 2025, knee injury 2025...the list goes on).

With Bo, both things may be true - he may have hated it here, and now loves it. But part of that comes with off the field realities. He has spoken about not being in a good place at times in the past, and there's no question what impact that can have both on yourself and your teammates, as well as alter your perspective on the situation. If he's in as healthy a place as he says he is, and having such a fun year of baseball, he may in fact now love it here.

"and Glevin - the proof is in the pudding. We know Bo fits here because he's fit here already. We know exactly what he can do here on the field and his effect in the clubhouse."

Except those aren't the important questions. The important question is what will Bo do in the future? Being liked in the clubhouse is nice but tons of guys will be liked in the clubhouse. It is a very very small factor. If you compare to Springer at the time, Springer just had a way wider set of tools. He was coming off 2 seasons of WRC of 155 and 143. He was an everyday CF, a very good baserunner, he walked, had lots of power etc so he had different ways to decline and still retain value...Bo...I don't know. He has one amazing skill which is bat control/hand-eye coordination. How does that age? I don't know but if it goes downhill, it might go very fast because he doesn't have any other plus skills to sacrifice and make adjustments. Maybe he ages slowly or figures something out but there is massive risk.

And then there's his D. Does he want to stay at SS? He is worst defensive SS in baseball so not great if he does. Can he be a decent or even good 2Bman? Maybe but it isn't guaranteed. He was 1st percentile range at SS. 2B is easier but it is still a very hard position. Maybe he takes path of Semien and goes from bad defender at SS to a good defender at 2B or maybe he takes path of Gleyber Torres who went from bad defender at SS to bad defender at 2B? His body type and quickness is more similar to Torres than it is to Semien. It's another unknown and another massive risk. (if I had to guess, I'd guess in between. Maybe average 2Bman for 2-3 years then below average for 2-3 more and then DH).

"he likes it here" just isn't a reason to spend $300M on someone. Maybe it makes sense for the Jays for baseball reasons (I hope it does) but that's the only reason the Jays should sign him. (And incidentally, I don't know his effect in the clubhouse. He isn't Vlad who is the clear team leader. He isn't someone like Ernie or Straw who get called out as leaders all the time and are visible and chatty. I'm sure he's liked but I'm even more sure sure the team wouldn't fall apart without him here.)

Semien was a great baserunner and still is, in addition to good defense at 2B. Even as his offense has eroded at age 34, he was still worth a 2 WAR in 2025 while underperforming his xwOBA. He's probably still close to league average with the bat, which makes him a ~3 WAR contender if it holds. Bichette doesn't have those secondary attributes to fall back on. Once his bat dips, it's likely over for him. He was super slow and bad defensively before messing his knee up. Maybe better health and a position change fixes that, but it's definitely not something you can bank on.

I don't mind a reunion with Bo if the numbers make sense and doesn't hinder them from signing/acquiring a SP, but I don't think it's a slam dunk signing if the money/term is crazy.

I disagree entirely Glevin. treating players as replaceable robots is exactly why so many teams fail. And anyone who thought Vlad was just a numbered asset who should be moved should doublecheck their priors after seeing the dramatic impact the team committing to him had on the entire team. If a team catches fire like the Jays did this year, losing a core piece like Bo and importing an unknown replacement for him is just asking for trouble. All the contract estimates for Bo seem absolutely reasonable and not one of them should scare us off even a little bit.

And I see zero reason to think his Bat is any special risk of decline - i've given countless examples of similar profiles that literally all aged just fine. Many improved after age 27. In fact I'd argue his batting profile as an elite contact hitter who has thrived adjusting his approach for all hitting situations is actually one that should age very well.

And while Bo isn't likely to take any huge discount from his shortstop price, there's no reason why he would demand to stay at SS for any team he signs for. Just unnecessarily limits any team he plays for and puts himself in the worst situation possible.

P.S. Semien's offense didn't erode.

Age 22-27: 2647pa, 96wrc+
Age 28-34: 4436pa, 116wrc+

Lets try to get close to apples to apples here...

• Springer: signed 20/21 winter: previous 3 years 133 OPS+, 11.5 bWAR (adj 2020 to 5.9 and it becomes 15.2) while playing mostly CF plus a fair amount of RF. Signed 6 years/$150 mil ranked #3 that winter as he entered his age 31 season. Bauer #1 (flop), Realmuto #2 (19.0 bWAR over 5 years, 109 OPS+). Springer has been 14.4 bWAR over 5 years 123 OPS+.
• Bo: previous 3 years 8 bWAR, 114 OPS+, entering age 28 season as a pure SS (regular season), pure 2B (post-season). Ranked #2 behind...
• Tucker: 14.8 bWAR past 3 years, 150 OPS+, entering age 29 season pure RF with some DH time. All-Star all 3 years, missed a big part of the middle year. Poor playoff performance overall at 233/317/376 but as Vlad showed this year you can flip that in one season but that is over 7 seasons/279 PA.

So based on past 3 years Bo is a very poor 3rd place among this crew. He is young but the injuries have sapped his speed and his defense wasn't good before the injuries. If you cut out emotion he is clearly not the best choice. Tucker would be a far better choice from a winning baseball POV. Regardless of 'clubhouse' pluses (which, incidentally, didn't help much from 2019-2024 with the 0 playoff wins)

Perfect world they resign Bo (cleanup hitter) and get Tucker or Bellinger (12.0 bWAR past 3, 125 OPS+, entering age 30 season) to bat second. Don't see that happening, but it ain't my money.

Tiedemann added to the 40-man.

Funny cuz Bo and Tucker had identical bats last year, and it'd be interersting to see what the defensive stats would have looked like if Kyle had to play CF and Bo got to play 2B.

As mentioned, I like Bo’s bat a lot. But here’s a 2025 Baseball Savant comp:

-Batting run value: Tucker 90th percentile, Bo 86th percentile

-Baserunning run value: Tucker 78th percentile, Bo 10th percentile

-Fielding run value: Tucker 52nd percentile, Bo 4th percentile

And 2025 was something of a down season for Tucker among recent years.

Huh. Surprised, Tucker 136 wRC+, Bo 134. Of course, that was the best Bo has ever done (outside of 2019 in 46 games) while Tucker was below his lifetime 138 figure. As to defense, Kyle in CF wasn't good, 29 innings back in 18/21 -2 DRS (yikes). Bo though is established as the worst at SS among regulars. Neither is likely to win a gold glove in the future.

Basically the question becomes which bat do you want and which position would you be willing to weaken on defense a bit? Bo at SS I think is a non-starter here now after Gimenez was there for September/October/November. Bo looked good at 2B in the WS but if he wants to be a SS going forward he'll have to go elsewhere. Tucker in RF is solid, but it would force Barger to be at 3B (basically league average there in 2025), while putting Clement at 2B (probable gold glove there). Same if Bellinger is signed - 125 wRC+ last year (a touch below Bo, but in eyeshot of an average Bo season). Net positive defense in LF and RF (where he'd play mostly) while average at 1B (to give Vlad a day off here and there).

The more I look the more I'd prefer Tucker or Bellinger over Bo going forward. Higher ceiling, I like Barger at 3B more than RF, Clement at 2B over 3B. Stronger defense, lower odds of a sudden collapse (like many I fear Bo doing a Garciaparra - flopping post 30 - 3.0 WAR total - after perpetual all-star status pre-30, 5 ASG, 6 years of 6+ bWAR, 1 year lost to injuries at age 27 damn fine age 28, damn good 29 too before it ended). Players post 30 are a massive risk and the Jays know that. But there are signs to watch and hopefully they know what those signs are (I'd think major injuries are a big red warning light).

Tucker is likely a better bet than Bo in the abstract for equal contract value/length. But if the choice is:

Tucker 11 years 400M
Bo 8 years 208M

I think that greatly, greatly favors Bo.

Bizzare trade.Orioles trade Grayson Rodriguez for Tayler Ward. Don't get it. Rodriguez has tons of upside still and Ward only has one year left on deal and is a solid but not great hitter.

G-Rod is talented but racking up injuries every year. There was a lot of concern around his elbow and things may still get worse. It's still a weird trade.

Ward is a solidly above average player. Career 111 OPS+ and has been above average for 5 straight years (107-134-105-110-116). While he's old at going to be 32 next year, he's still arbitration eligible so he's not going to be super expensive (probably 10-12 M). He's only a little below average on defense in the outfield (and worse than that at 3b).

Rodriguez is a SP, so that would make him seem super valuable; however, he didn't pitch at all last year. He's had lots of injuries. And while he was once a hyped prospect even if you take his 2 previous years (where he was only about 120 IP each season) he's more middle rotation than top. In the last 3 years there are 181 pitchers with at least 150 IP as a SP. Of those, by ERA he's 84. By WAR (which penalizes less IP) he's 91. It is true that if you go by xFIP he's 39, and it is true that you have 4 years of control for him. But I'd think there is enough risk there that the expected value is not a #1 or #2 pitcher - even if that's certainly the upside.

Ward is the higher floor, lower ceiling player. But yeah, I probably wouldn't make that deal as Baltimore unless I didn't think Rodriguez was going to be healthy again.

Basically giving up on Rodriguez and Taylor O'Neil.
Ward is a much better right bat.

Michael that's really good insight into Bo vs Tucker.

Ward is a a very good player, not a star and he'll be 32 next year. One year of that for a potential ace with injury issues under control until 2030 seems insane to me unless Rodriguez' arm has basically fallen off especially as this is a team that needs starters more than anything else. I assume Orioles will make more trades but this move is bizzare on its own. I think there will actually more trades than usual this off-season.

P.S. Semien's offense didn't erode.

Age 22-27: 2647pa, 96wrc+
Age 28-34: 4436pa, 116wrc+

Age 28-32, 3184 PA, 123 wRC+
Age 33-34, 1252 PA, 96 wRC+

Semien's definitely in decline but I also don't think he's a great comp for Bo because he again, has a much wider base of skills. (Athleticism, speed, defense, power, etc..). It is really hard to find good comps for Bo because he is a unique player.

One note from Ben Clemens at fangraphs about Bo that I thought was interesting. He has Bo 8th in FA class.

"For me, Bichette’s lack of impact defense means that he’s one of the players who WAR overvalues most; sure, he’s a shortstop, but he’s one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball."

For me, I always WAR was mostly inaccurate by overvaluing defense (especially BWar)and undervaluing hitting. 1Bman/DH especially get undervalued by WAR (someone like Vlad) and catchers especially get overvalued. What Clemens is saying is that getting a huge positional bonus for being very bad at your position doesn't really make sense. SS I think is +7.5. Anyway, it's an interesting thought.

You'd think any team signing Bo would like to move him to second base. I'm torn on the Jays signing him because, while I'd like to see him back, you might only get 4 good years on an 8 year contract.

Another factor to consider is the new CBA coming up. Owners seem, for the most part, want to institute a hard cap. If that ever came to pass, and the players will fight it tooth and nail, a team wouldn't want expensive deadwood clogging up the roster.

Just think of it as 4/160 then and 4/48 for his declining years. I don't know how defensive WAR is calculated but is it possible that his defensive value actually goes up by going from a bad defensive SS to an average+ 2B? Because I certainly think Bo is capable of that.

Watching the playoffs he looked good at 2B, but I suspect he really wants to stay at SS. Someone will offer him that plus $200 mil over however many years. Ideally that wouldn't be the Jays as much as I'd love to keep Bo here, I see too much of a risk there. It is funny with free agency - some guys took the QO I didn't expect (Woodruff, Trent Grisham) plus we're probably going to see some movement soon.

Like most years, the big fish needs to start moving - Tucker and Cease need to set the market, then the logjam can open up. Murakami has to make a choice by December 22nd. Imai by January 3rd.

why would you expect Bo to suddenly drop off at age 31.

I think you'd expect to get 5-7 years without that much of a drop off. It could be less or more, but usually 33/34 is more the drop off point for very good/great players. 31 is possible, but very unlikely IMHO.

I’m pretty sure that there is research (now dated) that suggests that middle infielders and, weirdly, 2B in particular, decline at an earlier age than other position players. It might even have been done by Bill James. Now, with changes in the sliding rule at 2nd and the overall decline in GB rate that may no longer be the case.

Nigel - exactly what I was thinking of - many 2B especially in the past have declined fast after 30, often with no warning. I figure the sliding into 2B is what did a lot of the damage, which now is drastically reduced. Plus the spinning for throws which has to hurt the back when they go up the middle (a 180 degree spin sometimes at top speed). Lets do a basic check on that theory. Using FanGraphs and primary position (not perfect, but should get a good idea) from 2000-2020 (so recent but not active necessarily) lets see what we see...

• C: 10k PA: 0; 7500+ PA: 4; 5k+ PA: 15 (inc. 7500)
• 1B: 10k: 2; 7500+: 11; 5k+: 37
• 2B: 10k: 0; 7500+: 6; 5k+: 28
• 3B: 10k: 2; 7500+: 6; 5k+: 24
• SS: 10k: 1; 7500+: 7; 5k+: 30
• LF: 10k: 0; 7500+: 9; 5k+: 28
• CF: 10k: 1; 7500+: 7; 5k+: 30
• RF: 10k: 2; 7500+: 6; 5k+: 32
• DH: 10k: 0; 7500+: 3; 5k+: 11

I figure DH is mostly due to few players being primarily a DH so we'll ignore that. LF/2B/C the positions without a 10k guy. 2B had the second fewest with 7500+ but tied with RF/3B - no shock C had the fewest. 5k+ sees 2B 3rd lowest behind C and 3B.

Not exactly what I expected, but interesting. 2B rarely gets the extreme length it seems. Expand them to 1980-2025 and you get just 2 10k guys (Biggio & Alomar), 17 with 7500+, 69 with 5k+. 3B in the same frame has 6 over 10k, 22 at 7500, and 69 with 5k. C has 1 10k (I-Rod), 9 7500, 30 5k.

Go back to 1901 to 2025 (so called 'modern era') and you get 2B: 8/38/146, 3B: 14/48/150, C: 1/18/70 - clearly catching has been helped a lot by modern medicine and equipment. 10k PA guys are rare, and at 2B they are a once in a decade maybe thing. Bottom line is 2B is a tough one, as is 3B and C. All are similar (outside of C) for getting to 5k (a 8-10 year career roughly), and keeps up to 7500 (12-15 years) but drops off fast after that for 3B/2B. Might do a real study on this someday for fun.

I think it is more the stronger the hitter is, the longer they can have a career as they still provide value even when they drop 10-20% from their peak. If you are barely there as a hitter, a drop makes you fall off. If you are 30% above average, if you lose 20% from your peak you are still above average. You also have the fact that defense tends to decline a little with age (especially speed based defense).

I think the only position that is wear and tear related is C.

Lets check similar players to Bo for aging. 134 wRC+ in his age 27 season, how did guys with a 130-139 wRC+ at that age in 500+ PA do afterwards? Lets check shortstops first. Total of 200 players with 500 PA who mainly played SS at age 27.

• 129 were sub 100 so not a reasonable point of comparison
• 53 more were sub 120, again not comparable to Bo.
• 7 were 140+ wRC+, a level Bo has yet to reach.
• 4 were in the 130's including Bo. So it is rare, they were Carlos Correa 2022, Derek Jeter 2001, and Jeremy Peña this year. Obviously very limited options there. Pena is worthless to use as he hasn't even had his age 28 season. Correa has plantar fasciitis which messes him up as a clean comparison (rare disease) but in the 3 years since age 27 he has hit well overall, wRC+ of 94-154-106 8.5 fWAR. Solid, but odds are low of him keeping it up. Jeter had 2 more years in the 130's (age 32 & 35), 45.7 fWAR left in him, including 5 years of 4+ WAR ages 28-32. Didn't drop below 2 fWAR until age 39 (injuries). Clearly Jeter is the best case.
• high 120's: 1993-Jay Bell; 1901-Bobby Wallace; 1988-Cal Ripken Jr.; 1993-Jeff Blauser. Bell had 4 more years of 3+ WAR in him but by 34 was not valuable (below 2 WAR total age 34-end). Wallace was a regular until age 36, semi-regular for 3 more years, then bench sub 100 PA for 5 more years (different era) - last good year was age 36, last great year age 34. Ripken - HOF'er with a 10+ WAR year at age 30, 3+ WAR through age 35, excellent part time season at age 38 (140 wRC+ in 354 PA), fell apart at 40 - 49.4 fWAR post age 27 - OK this is the best case now. Blauser - 3 meh years 28-30, 5 WAR age 31, barely over 0 total for 32/33 then done like dinner.
• Other 3 who were 120+ but sub 125 were 1976-Toby Harrah, 1918-Ray Chapman, 1903-Freddy Parent - none did well. Harrah was the best but very inconsistent, you never knew if you were getting the 4/5 WAR guy or the 1/2 guy so very not like Bo. Chapman died from HBP at 29 (solid age 28/29 seasons before a bean ball ended him). Parent was like Harrah but more so with most value being from defense, not offense.

Not sure we can read much into this. A few 'wow' guys like Ripken & Jeter, some solid but not 'wow' in Harrah, Blauser, Wallace, Bell. Correa looks good so far but he is a very different player from Bo and has a big time foot injury which changes any projections for him. All depends on which guys you think Bo is more like - Ripken & Jeter or Harrah/Blauser?

Vlad was a terrible player to project value over 14 years. He will fall off a cliff. So glad the team made the right decision and signed him.

Raisel Igelsias has gone back to the Braves on a $16M one year contract.

Francys Romero said the Jays made a similar offer. Ben Nicholson Smith says the Jays were interested but didn't make an offer. Who to believe?

Francys Romero@francysromeroFR

Correction here: The Blue Jays were very interested in Iglesias, but technically they never made an offer.

My apologies for the error.

With that $16 mil for Igelsias I'd say the market says 1 year deals will be good for quality closers but multi year might be tougher to get. He was expected to get a 2 year $26 mil deal (MLBTR) but not a crazy difference at $13 vs $16 mil and might be the premium needed to get that safe for the team 1 year deal. It'll be interesting to see how other non-Diaz closers go after this. Will a few start signing or will teams up the pressure to get them on the dotted line? Seems the market for him was Atlanta/LAD/Jays - so 2 WS teams and a regular contender. Robert Suarez, Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley are the 3 I expect to be thinking about 'should I sign soon'. Díaz should make up his mind as if he waits then he either will be in a cat bird seat (last one standing) or be screwed (teams filled their closer slot and don't have cash left for him).

Me, I'd avoid Díaz with the QO unless I got a good deal, as Suarez/Williams/Helsley all look damn fine to me with Fairbanks a good fallback. No QO for any, all have been solid in the past. Yeah, Diaz would be nice but you want some draft picks should the Jays sign any top hitter or starter (unless they are going all Japan - no QO then, but higher risk).

Williams seems like the best option, but I’ll wait till I see the final numbers.

Our old pal Nate Pearson signed with Houston - didn’t see it mentioned yet. Maybe they can finally unlock his potential.

For hitters, projected WAR has just 2 over 4 in Tucker & Bo, 3.9 for Bregman, 3.0 for Bellinger, Eugenio Suárez 2.7, then sub 2.5's elsewhere (ie: not an impact player). At least among 2B/SS/3B/OF which is all the Jays will be looking at (no need for a 1B/DH or C). Polanco and Kim are also 2.0+ so at least league average regulars, but that ain't what the Jays are after. Murakami is projected at -0.4 (Steamer) up to 3.4 (ZiPS) so he is the biggest 'risk/reward' this winter I suspect (heavy emphasis on the risk).

As to starting pitchers, the top 4 projected WAR guys have QO (Cease, Valdez, Ranger Suarez all 3+, King 2.8), Merrill Kelly is a no QO guy, then Zac Gallen has a QO, then Bassitt and Zach Eflin are the last 2+ projected WAR starters. Tatsuya Imai is the mandatory Japan import listed at 1.0 (Steamer - no ZIPS projection), while Cody Ponce is trying to make it here from Korea (same projection expected to get half the cash and years of Imai). Hadn't checked out Ponce - he threw 180 innings in Korea last year in 29 starts. 12.55 K/9 vs 2.04 BB/9 0.5 HR/9 - a guy worth checking out if you run a ML team. Just 55 lifetime ML innings with a 5.86 ERA (4.69 xFIP so might have had some bad luck while being used as a swingman). Suarez is damn tempting but has never started 30 or qualified for the ERA title over 4 years as a full-time starter so unlikely to fit the Jays model of 'best ability is availability'. Valdez fits that criteria plus killer results (4 years of FIP- between 78 and 82 with 176 to 201 IP each of those years) but character issues now dog him. Cease is everyone's favorite, FIP- inbetween 76-87 over the past 5 years, 32-33 starts each of those years, 165-189 IP those years too, but his worst of those years was last year (worst FIP-, 2nd lowest IP, but highest fastball - trying too hard?). Hard to argue against going for any of the best of that crew, but I'm certain the Jays will be looking very closely at medicals for all of them. Last thing you want is a Strasburg (just 8 starts after signing massive long term deal, just 31 IP for over $200 mil) or a (Jays nightmare reference) Mike Sirotka (0 IP after Jays gave up a 4.8 bWAR David Wells 3rd in Cy voting to get him - largely seen as the final straw to get Ash fired).

Erik Swanson has announced his retirement.

The reason I said if Bo signed an 8 year contract, the Jays might be lucky to get 4 good years out of him is that I compared him to Troy Tulowitzki and Nomar Garciaparra. Troy and Nomar had almost exactly the same career WAR ( 44.3 and 44.8) and both were pretty well done of their careers at age 32, mostly due to injury.

There were others like Jeter and Ripken, and lesser names who played much longer but they seemed to avoid serious injuries and we all know that they are a concern with Bo.

Our old pal Nate Pearson signed with Houston - didn’t see it mentioned yet. Maybe they can finally unlock his potential.

The Astros Nate Pearson signing actually dates back to the middle of the Jays' WS run. I vaguely remember seeing the announcement. I went back to try to find it in the MLBTR archives and it went all the way back to Oct 21st.

The MLBTR piece mentions Houston is giving Pearson a chance to start on 1/1.35 guaranteed MLB deal with something like 125k in incentives. Looking back, Pearson hasn't been a full time starter since 16 starts as a 22 y/o in NH back in '19. Low risk, but also pretty optimistic on the Astros part (including taking up a 40-man spot all offseason/ST).

I'm not terribly bothered by the old Teo/Swanson deal. I do find it interesting though that Teoscar in the end lasted longer in the league than Erik. My memory of the justification of swapping Hernandez' walk year contract was the 4 years of control that Swanson came with as a cost-controlled potentially late game reliever.

It didn't really work out, as the Jays did get 3.5 years of MLB service out of Swanson, but only really one effective & healthy season.

Given the fact that Swanson came with the 4 years of control, I would've thought he was actually younger than Teo. But looking it up with his retirement announcement today, he's actually only a year younger than Hernandez having turned 32 this fall. And would've been 33 next Sept even if it was technically his 32 y/o age season as calculated by stats sites like BBRef (with a July 1st cutoff).

I personally am still suffering from the heartbreaking WS loss existential malaise. I've been skimming my usual baseball sites out of mostly boredom since the loss, but my heart isn't in it to enjoy the usual offseason machinations and hope for 2026.

I've been on the site for two decades dating back to the Wednesdays with JP days, but I have a nagging desire to simply give up on the Jays and baseball and move on to something else. I've had some shorter hiatuses from the Jays during the Shapiro-Atkins era between 2016-2021, but this one feels different.

While my heart isn't in it though, I still haven't been able to break my daily Internet habit of skimming the Jays & MLB scuttlebutt yet. Though I would like to.

It must be because I suffered so much being a Leaf's fan over the past 50 some years, but I got over the Jay's loss in about a day. Sure it was disappointing to come so close, but this past season and postseason provided more great Blue Jay moments and memories than the past 30 years combined. If you go on a train trip, it's not just arriving at the destination, but it's also appreciating the scenery along the way.

I also have confidence the Jays will return to the playoffs. This year will just make them hungrier to get back and go all the way. Don't give up, pooks 137. The best is yet to come.

Random trivia question.  Which three players (in order) have the highest wRC+ in post-season play with 150 or more PAs?

Agree, ISLAND BOY - after suffering with the Leafs, losing in game 7 isn't as big a hit as it is for others, I guess. I never expected them to go that far - was "hoping" for a couple of wild card games.

Mike, I feel like Carlos Beltran is one of the three. Maybe second overall? Just a guess.

I want to believe Vladdy and Springer are in there before i run and check.

2nd hint.  The all-time leader if the PA threshold was lower would be Lou Brock.  

Pujols is another player who comes to mind.

I'll be away from my computer for an hour or so.  

George Brett?

George Brett is 3rd.  The other two did not feast on the Blue Jays in the playoffs.

Our SPs should be every deep. 8 SPs/season should be enough.

Gausman, Bieber, Berrios, Yesavage, Lauer, Francis and Varland makes 7. So no urgency in getting another but any upgrade would be good.

Two Yankees top the post-season hitter list.  I guess that's not too much of a shock.

The Jays need to think of not just 2026 but also 2027 and beyond. If you sign a top free agent you are planning on him being here for 5+ years. Tucker is entering his age 29 season so a 10 year deal covers his career and that is what he is after - a career deal (he has said so, just can't find the quote now) of 10-12 years (last few would be purely for luxury tax purposes, reducing the AAV). Bo is going into his age 28 season. Others sub 30 are Dustin May (RH SP never had 2 WAR in a season or 140 innings in a season), Michael Soroka (RH swing man - had a great year in 2019 but hasn't cracked 100 innings in a season since but would be a nice long man/6th starter). The Japanese players Tatsuya Imai (RH SP) is 28, Munetaka Murakami (LH 3B) is 26. A few others are out there - mostly non-tender types who teams let go thus of minor interest (useful on AAA deals, but for a WS team they won't be guaranteed a deal here, maybe the A's will).

If I was running the Jays I'd be very, very, very careful with the 30+ crowd. Bregman 32, Cease 30, Valdez 32, Ranger Suárez 30, Bellinger 30 - all very good players who could be difference makers in 2026 but by 2028 might be weights on the payroll with minimal contributions. There are exceptions of course (Springer this year, Gausman) but most guys in their mid 30's are more like Springer '24 than Springer '25. Any big signing you need to be careful with - ideally you'd stick to 3 years or less but few will sign for that.

As to the trivia - Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth probably are up there (pre-1970 it is hard to get 150 PA in the playoffs outside of being a Yankee). Reggie Jackson (Mr. October) had a great rep for the playoffs but I don't think his overall numbers were there. Can't recall who was 'wow' for the A's of the 70's or the Reds of the '70's during the playoffs. Both were dynasties which had lots of HOF'ers who could've had wow figures.

Gotta be Gehrig then mixed with Ruth - what a scary combo that must've been back in the 1920's.

Yep. Ruth, Gehrig and Brett.

Kershaw said some nice things to Rob Lowe.

I appreciate that.

With the free agency stuff going on I keep dancing in my head with the 2026 lineup. I'm guessing it is going to be...

1. DH: R-Springer
2. RF: L-New guy (Tucker or Bellinger)
3. 1B: R-Vlad
4. 3B: L-Barger
5. C : R-Kirk
6. LF: S-Santander
7. CF: L-Varsho
8. 2B: R-Clement
9. SS: L-Gimenez

Bench (4): S-Heineman (C); R-Schneider (2B/LF); R-Straw (OF); R-Jimenez (IF) with Lukes fighting with Schneider for a spot, assorted AAAA types in spring fighting for the utility position with Jimenez. Loperfido feeling forgotten. Not hard to imagine a trade or two clearing out a few of these backups for pen help.

Rotation

1. R-Gausman
2. R-Bieber
3. R-Yesavage (3 options)
4. R-Berrios
5. L-Lauer (0 options)

Backup starters: Francis (R-1), Lucas (L-1), Tiedemann (L-3), Bloss (R- 1 option - TJ so might be out all year), Adam Macko (R-1), Estrada (R-2), Bastardo (R-rule 5 pick so can't be sent down without offering back to Boston), etc.

Pen: Hoffman (R), Garcia (R), Varland (R-1), Fisher (R-3), Little (L-1), Nance (R-0), Fluharty (L-2), Rodriguez (R-0)

Others for pen: Bruihl (L-0), Schultz (R-2)

Phew. Lots there. Bruihl is the definition of 'replacement level' btw, with 0.0 fWAR lifetime, and a 0.0 each of the past 2 years, 0.1 the year before that. The rotation is acceptable as is, as is the pen. But I fully expect some upgrades to happen. Plus a few AAAA types signed for the pen in Buffalo, along with another starter down there I suspect - shifting at least one of the backup starters to the pen to train as a fill-in for injuries. I'd be very shocked if Yesavage is sent down, unless he shows up to camp arrogant over his success last year in the playoffs (no reason to expect it outside of him being a young kid).

If no LH OF or IF is signed then I expect Lucas to be hitting 2nd (Schneider vs LHP) with those 2 sharing LF and Santander moved to RF. If Bo is signed then Clement goes to 3B - Barger to RF, and probably Barger hitting 2nd, Bo 4th, Santander 5th, Kirk 6th. Lukes and Schneider still fighting for 1 job between them. I can't see the Jays dumping Straw as he is a gold glove calibre CF who can play 'wow' defense on the corners as well - very useful with Santander out there everyday (comes in close and late). That lineup with or without an addition is pretty strong, but add Tucker and it is potentially a killer. Of course, that assumes Springer doesn't regress to 2024 version, that Barger is more like playoff Barger (1.025 OPS), May/June/July Barger (855 OPS) and not August/September Barger (630 OPS). Plus we have to hope Santander is more like his career 106 wRC+, than 2025 61 wRC+ and ideally like his 2024 128 wRC+. Not a lot of big 'if only this' for the lineup imo. Similar for the rotation - Gausman to keep being as he has been here, Bieber to be closer to his career 74 FIP- than his 106 FIP- last year, Yesavage to continue to be the kid he was last year, Berrios to be the solid #3/4 guy he has always been (inning eater), Lauer...please don't be another Francis 1/2 season wonder. The pen is the biggest 'not a clue' as always. Sign the best you can and hope for the best is about all you can do there.

Non tender deadline is fast approaching.

Jays signed minor league free agent Carlos Mendoza. Very much a Jays sort of player. Flexible, doesn't K, BBs. Had a 137 WRC+ last year in AA/AAA.

The Athletic has a piece on the top FA starting pitchers this off-season, as ranked by some scouts (there is no clear consensus about the correct order). Here is the overall ranking:

1. Valdez
2. Cease
3. Imai
4. Suarez

Best of the rest: King, Gallen, Giolito, Kelly

I’m not sure I love any of these choices. I’ve liked King for the last few years (ever since the Yankees converted him to a SP and he dominated opponents in impressive fashion, including the Blue Jays). But he may be on the decline after his recent injury issues.

Gallen might be worth a flyer to see if he can rebound. Imai could be a nice mid-rotation option. I think I’m out on Valdez after the C incident.

I’m still hankering after Tucker and/or Bo (bit more for Tucker than for Bo)…

Atlanta Braves
@Braves
·
39s
The #Braves today declined to tender contracts for the 2026 season to RHP Alek Manoah and RHP Carson Ragsdale.

Mendoza's MaxEV of 109 mph in triple A this year suggests that he might have some power potential too.  It's a good depth signing.

Hard to imagine Manoah is still just 27 with a career ERA of 3.34 and career WHIP of 1.164 and nearly a strikeout per inning with 412 K in 420 IP in 75 GS (so over 5 and half innings a start on average). Normally those stats would make someone very valuable, but given it has been 3 years since he made any positive contribution he may not get signed or not for much despite the fact that there is potentially high upside there (but high risk and no real floor to how bad).

The pitchers are interesting but I think I've dug way too much into them - will be doing another post soon about pitching (damn it is complicated).

As to ex-Jays non-tendered, in addition to Alek Manoah there is a catcher Reese McGuire. Plus Josh Winckowski (minors only here), Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo. Plus the nephew of a former Jay - Mark Leiter Jr.

If Manoah has cooled his ego down (hard to imagine he didn't get knocked down a lot of pegs) I'd sign him to a AAA deal, same for McGuire, Thornton, and Saucedo - all had decent stats at one time and you never know if they might regain their form - just what you want from a guy on a minor league deal/spring invite/with escape clause for them if they see a better opportunity.

Non-tenders are always dumpster diving. Sometimes you find gold (Lauer) sometimes you don't. But that is where you get nice surprises at low cost if you do it right. I suspect someone will give Manoah a ML deal though (based on his age and peak value) so I doubt he comes back. Saucedo is getting old (33 next season) but as a LH reliever he could be useful, and a AAA deal isn't a big risk if he'll sign.

Other former Jays non tendered are Sem Robberse and Nick Frasso.

Sem Robberse underwent TJ surgery so he is out for 2026 most likely. Frasso is said to have ended 2025 hurt after missing all of 2024. His K/9 collapsed to 7.9 after being over 10 for years. I remember how many felt letting him go for Mitch White was a mistake, but at least White pitched in the majors for us (-1.6 bWAR so maybe that wasn't a good thing). Moises Brito, the other guy sent away, hasn't pitched as a pro since 2024. Sheesh, just checked and all the minor leaguers traded away in the mid-season 2022 trade deadline flopped. '23's deadline guys look bad too but 1 did 'wow' this year, another was decent for a bit but no more - Robberse dumped, Kloffenstein came back, Matt Svanson did well for the Cards this year (1.94 ERA in 60 IP in relief - dang, like him back instead of the corpse we got for him - Paul DeJong), Trent Thornton did well for a bit, but now is a non-tender. So '22 and '23 cost 1 decent reliever and 1 meh reliever in the end.

A good reminder that prospects guarantees by any stretch. Last years prospect haul was Jacob Sharp, Jonatan Clase, Gilberto Batista, Cutter Coffey, Eddinson Paulino, Yohendrick Pinango, Josh Rivera, RJ Schreck , Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner, Charles McAdoo, Jay Harry, Ryan Yarbrough. A few showed hope (Wagner looked great in '24, Yarbrough helped a lot in '24 too) but are gone now, others are still growing in the minors (Loperfido, McAdoo, Bloss, Schreck, Pinango, Coffey), the rest are ... well ... we'll see I guess but most of the others I expect to be gone before '26. Clase is out of options so he is toast (can't see a role for him here).

This years minor leaguers traded away include Khal Stephen (could be an ouch as soon as '26), Kendry Rojas, Alan Roden, Will Wagner, and Juaron Watts-Brown. Rojas has a lot of wildness but one never knows with those guys (pen move might be needed). Roden we were all high on entering '25 but he flopped (27 OPS+ post-Toronto, 53 overall in 153 PA after a 918 OPS in AAA). Wagner also sucked post-Toronto (OPS+ of 6 in 17 PA, 739 OPS in AAA for SD). But that got us Bieber, Varland, France, Dominguez, and Valenzuela (minor league catcher). Without Bieber/Varland/Dominguez I doubt we'd be morning a game 7 11 inning loss in the WS, but instead morning a lost opportunity season (ie: losing in an earlier round, probably WC round again).

So my point is, if the Jays trade a few prospects this winter don't be shocked or afraid. You need to risk losing the odd Syndergaard to get shots at glory.

Some interesting non-tender names for minor league deals and invites. Evan Phillips probably most interesting on major league deal.

Evan Phillips would be interesting but only on a minor league deal as he had TJ surgery last year in June so might miss all of 2026, or just be back for September/playoffs which would have value but you'd rather not use up a 40 man slot until spring on a guy who might not pitch at all, unless he signs a 2 year deal (ie: you get a full year post-TJ).

Right now, outside of spare parts to be stashed in AAA and maybe a backup IF/backend bullpen pieces, the Jays should only be interested in top 10 calibre hitters, and #1/2 starting pitchers. Anything less won't be a significant upgrade on what they have now, or will just be a marginal (not worth it) upgrade.

So what is available? Using 2025 fWAR to decide top 10 and placements

• C: Kirk is #2 and Cal Raleigh ain't available. Heineman came in 17th - hard to do better as a backup.
• 1B: Vlad is there for the next 14 years.
• 2B: Clement was #5, top 4 not available, Jorge Polanco a FA (132 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR due to bad defense/lots of DH time)
• 3B: Clement was #8, #4 Eugenio Suárez is a free agent (no QO 49 HR 125 wRC+ so a lot like Santander), Alex Bregman #7 free agent (no QO), Barger #15, wild cards are Murakami & Okamoto (Japan).
• SS: Bo #10 (FA), Ha-Seong Kim is probably the best (sub 1 WAR last year, projected at 2.4) free agent. None of the top 10+ appear to be realistically available in trade unless someone is dumping salary (Texas rumored to be but I doubt they'd trade Seager even with his entering the decline years (32 next season) and owed a fortune (6 years-until 2031, $32.5 per for tax purposes, $31.5 cash)
• LF: Lukes/Straw/Schneider all in the 23-26 range, Cody Bellinger #1 is a free agent (no QO), Harrison Bader #7 (more a CF, 122 wRC+ RH no QO), Steven Kwan a perpetual trade target of the Jays it seems (Cleveland, just a 99 wRC+ last year but WOW defense, 112 wRC+ lifetime)
• CF: Varsho is #15 (was on pace for #4). Harrison Bader #7 is a FA.
• RF: Springer #5 (he ain't being out there a lot in '26), Barger #16, Lukes #18. Bellinger #6 here, Tucker #7 (great year for Bellinger, bad one for Tucker who has a QO). No one else of note.
• DH: Springer #3 - #1/2 are Judge/Ohtani so we ain't upgrading here. Schwarber (FA) was #4 but it would make zero sense to sign him - unless you really want Springer in RF all year.
• SP: Gausman #10. Ranger Suárez (FA) #12, Framber Valdez #13, Dylan Cease #23. No one else in the top 30 catches my eye as available. Kind of surprised Suarez was that high (4.0 fWAR in just 157 IP) - he might be worth looking at closer. Those 3 all have QO attached and all 3 are projected to be in the 3's for fWAR in '26. Wild card is Imai (Japan FA).

I put the Japanese players as wild cards as they could be very good or not. The move to MLB from Japan is such a tough thing to project. Must be a nightmare for ML teams outside of painfully obvious cases like Ohtani & Sasaki (both got minimal deals due to their age when they came).

Looking at this I'm less fearful of Clement playing everyday, and can see the advantage of signing Kim to be at SS or 2B depending on where Gimenez is best suited, although if the Jays sign an IF Bregman/Suarez/Bo are all a lot more tempting depending on how each is expected to age. LF/RF Bellinger is damn tempting as is Tucker (contract size a big issue with both) but right now I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays do a push for Kwan from Cleveland (weaker bat but his strong D and every other year 120+ wRC+ habit makes him damn tempting as 2026 should be a good bat year). I wasn't a fan at first of Ranger Suarez as a starter but the more I look the more I like - makes me think of Gausman, someone who seems damn close to being an ace but just needs a few things to break right (or in his case not break with his shortage of innings each year).

I didn't look at all at the pen as it is such a crapshoot. No idea who they will sign there. A trade or going cheap is very possible.

I'd note our front office has a track record of FA that deserves a fair bit of benefit of the doubt. One of their stronger track record is generally hitting a lot more than missing with the FA they sign. The guys we want may not end up choosing us, but if the front office signs someone, I'd generally expect it to work out at least as well as expected based on the past track record of success.

I predict they will sign one of Schwarber or Tucker, probably Schwarber and then Bo or Bellinger. Try to get 1 "expensive guy" and 1 "less expensive guy" for the line up. Then they will sign the best pitchers on the most palatable contracts they can. Think Bassitt or Gallen for rotation innings with Dominguez and Helsley for more velocity in bullpen.

I think I remember this FO trying really hard to sign Schwarber in the past due to his projected profile before he broke out as the lefty and righty masher he now is.

I think it would be difficult to fit Schwarber, Santander and Springer into the same lineup. I'd rather a younger Tucker if I had a choice.

Agreed in ideal scenario but if Springer has chronic injuries and is off the books after next year then maybe you just deal with Springer and Santander in the OF and use Schwarber as DH. Certainly not ideal but may be better than overpaying for Tucker or Bo if it gets to that point.

We may not sign any big name FAs. I have faith in Atkins building a 2026 team in other ways.

I would be surprised if Schwarber landed in Toronto. I like him as a hitter and he would be great to have around for a championship run, but he just had a career year and I don't see him fitting easily on the roster with Santander and Springer both being best suited to DH. He'll be 33 in a few months, so injuries and decline could start anytime for him.

If the team adds two of Tucker, Bo, Schwarber and Bellinger, I'll be very happy. You could make an argument for including Bregman in that group (if the Blue Jays signed him, they would presumably move Clement to 2B and keep Barger in RF).

They could also add Kim to play SS and move Gimenez back to 2B, then add one of Tucker, Bellinger or Schwarber to play a corner OF position.

Schwarber doesn't make sense for Jays really ( he'd have to play LF with Santander in RF. That's pretty brutal defensively) but lots of ways Jays can add beyond just Bo and Tucker. Okamato or Suarez can play 3B, Polanco can play 2B, Kim can play up the middle, Bellinger can play anywhere in OF, etc...

I'd be 100% shocked if Schwarber ended up here. Like trading for Skubal seems more realistic - and that one ain't realistic at all. I expect a top 10 FA to be signed - not sure which, one of Bo-Tucker-Cease-Bregman-Valdez-Imai-Bellinger-Ranger Suarez. If the trade market is kind then they might go for a guy in the 10-20 range like Diaz-King-Gallen-Williams-Eugenio Suarez. My gut is one of Bo-Tucker-Cease-Bellinger with Valdez-Ranger Suarez as the backups.

The more I look at it, the more likely resigning Bassitt to be the #5 guy becomes. He probably would sign a one year deal for $15 mil given the depth of starters, but only if the Jays get a top hitter. Lots of pen options that are decent to become a secondary closer, leaving Hoffman as the primary to start 2026, but with Garcia as a backup and hopefully a fresh guy also as a backup. Varland is too valuable in he pen to move to the rotation this year imo, but in '27 he might be needed there (Gausman-Bieber-maybe Berrios all free agents).

I suspect the Jays focus has to be on finding a top notch starter for after 2026 who can help in '26. With the potential of needing to fill 3 rotation slots in '27 you'd rather lock one down in '25/26. Yesavage is the only real lock for '27 right now. Tiedemann seems likely. Macko-Johnny King-Stanifer-Bloss-Fernando Perez among others could be part of the discussion depending how their 2026 goes but it is safe to say the Jays will want at least 1 guy who shaves in the rotation for '27.

Which combo of players would you rather sign for $350m total?

1. Bo + Bellinger

2. Tucker + Kim

Years matter on all the deals, not just total dollar amounts, but if the years/contracts were exactly the same (say 7 years 50M/year for both pairs of players) I think Bo+Bregman is better than Tucker+Kim.

Kim doesn't make much sense to me as we have a glove first middle infielder and several people who can cover ss/2b. And it isn't clear that Kim isn't past the peak for speed/defense.

Tucker + Kim

Bellinger will fall off a cliff faster than Kim.

Having a lot of depth can allow a team to go far, as we saw with the Blue Jays in 2025. But adding another 4-8 WAR (probably 4-5 WAR) player like Tucker would give them some extra margin for error. The team could still rely on its strong depth in 2026, but having another star in the lineup would allow them not to have to count on the entire roster, from Vladdy all the way down to Heineman, having a good year again.

Speaking of depth, 25-year-old RJ Schreck could be an interesting piece for the Blue Jays in 2026. He had a 139 wRC+ in A+/AA in 2024, and a 143 wRC+ across four levels in the minors (mostly AA and AAA) in 2025, with a 16.4 BB% and a 21.3 K%. Pretty good numbers. He could be a factor if the team needs another bat at DH/LF at some point during the 2026 season. Or he could be part of a trade package to acquire another player.

Bellinger will fall off a cliff faster than Kim.

Er, didn't Gailileo disprove this with his tower experiment?

Sources say Marcus Semien to the Mets for Brandon Nimmo.

Who to sign as a combo - Bo & Bellinger = 4 + 3 fWAR = 7 fWAR in 2026. Tucker & Kim = 4.4 + 2.4 = 6.8 fWAR so pretty much identical (anyone who thinks projections are within 0.2 is dreaming). In either case you are forcing either Clement or Barger to the bench. So not an ideal use of resources to sign 2 hitters imo.

So how about one of Bellinger/Bo/Tucker & Imai? 3 + 1 = 4 fWAR so not as much but you'd be benching our 5th starting pitcher (moved to pen, dumping our 8th reliever) instead of Barger or Clement. Or Bo ($208) + Ranger Suarez ($115)? or Bregman ($160) & Cease ($189)? Those 2 combos make a lot more sense.

As to Schreck - this year is critical for his career, like last year was for Roden (and he flopped in the majors thus is now in Minny with Austin Martin 106 OPS+ in LF/CF). Once you hit age 25 your career has to move fast or you will most likely be looking at a few cups of coffee until your options are out, then hanging on in AAA begging for someone to get hurt/traded so you get a full shot. If Schreck can have an 850+ OPS again, then get a shot and not blow it, he could make a full career and maybe even a good one. As a LH bat he would mix in well with Schneider if Lukes is traded. Lukes could be useful in a trade as an add on to get over the line with a club where that other team has a hole somewhere in the OF (any of the 3 slots) or with a contender that needs a solid 4th OF. We're kind of buried in those here so Lukes becomes the easy odd man out (100 OPS+, 2.0 bWAR in 135 games - very useful but not a 'wow' at age 30 - The A's 3 OF were LH, all 3 in Pittsburgh were sub 100 OPS as was their DH and all backup OF'ers so they might be a good spot, Dennis Santana is a solid RH reliever well into arb years but low K's so might be cheap enough that Lukes + minor prospect gets him or him plus something).

Jays need to look for utility IF, star level for one of 3B/2B/LF/RF, high end starter, high end reliever, a mid-level reliever or two (ideally a LH). At least one of those will be covered by free agency, the rest who knows? Ace/closer/star won't be cheap but utility IF/back end relievers could be covered with AAAA type pickups (FA/minor trades) and we might not even notice them when acquired. Who heard of the Jays signing Carlos Mendoza for example? He is a super-utility guy with 0 ML experience. who hit 287/394/409 in AA/AAA for Detroit last year at age 25 playing 2B/3B/RF and has time in the past in CF and LF (12-6 SB-CS last year after 33-5 in '24). Another potential Clement? Wait and see.

Weird trade - Semien had a 97 OPS+ last year, his worst since pre-Jays days and has 3/$72 left on his deal (ages 35-37). Nimmo had a 114 OPS+ last year with 5 years left (33-37 $102.5 mil, $20.5 per year). I can see why Texas did it, but why the Mets? Feels very much like another shoe about to drop as this leaves the Mets with a hole in LF and Jeff McNeil out of an everyday job at 2B (he is more a super-utility guy really). Texas RF was Adolis García who was just non-tendered.

Semien still an excellent fielder and has the upside of an MVP candidate. Whereas Gimenez….hey that first week as a Jay was memorable.

I thought a Semien and DeGrom trade would be good, but if the Rangers are going scorched earth Seager and DeGrom would be even better.

Seems like a fair trade. Semien is an up-the-middle player but is now 35. Nimmo is younger (32) but seems to now be a left fielder. Both players are still owed quite a bit of money in the coming seasons. Both might benefit from a change of scenery. It wouldn't be surprising if each is around a 2-3 WAR player in 2026, maybe a bit better than that. And there's always the chance that one or both has a Springer-like late career resurgence next year...

Springer's trade value is high this off season. I would be or not surprised if he is traded.

I’d rather give the utility IF spot to Jimenez than spend any real resources to get an IKF level player to fill that role (or god forbid IKF himself). Jimenez projects reasonably well offensively, is still young, can cover 2B/SS, and is out of options. He also historically hits LHP much better than RHP so he’s a good fit on the roster as a platoon mate with Gimenez. The bigger issue is what they do with Lukes. I don’t think he’s a starting caliber OF and having both him and Straw on the bench limits roster spots for players with greater defensive utility (like Jimenez). If the Jays add an OF then either Straw or more likely Lukes should be dealt, IMO. I’d rather have Lukes as a 4th OF but Straw can play CF and apparently was a big part of the clubhouse culture so I don’t think they’d move him even if he’s more movable now.

Good point SK in NJ - I was thinking a lot about it and what would be ideal for backups. Lets assume a hitter is signed or traded for (Bo/Tucker/Bellinger/whoever) that would mean that 1-9 would be Springer-new guy-Vlad-Varsho-Kirk-Santander-Barger-Clement-Gimenez with Gimenez the only black hole on offense, Santander the black hole on defense. That leaves 4 slots - Heineman is the backup catcher. 3 slots left - Straw a lock for a backup OF slot, so 2 left. Ideally 1 IF, 1 OF. Jimenez & Lukes or Schneider would fill it at minimal cost. Odds are, especially if Schneider is the backup OF, that the backup IF would rarely play so might as well use Jimenez who is out of options and would make league minimum. Given the massive flexibility this roster has with Clement & Barger you could keep Lukes & Schneider and skip the backup IF (Schneider covers 2B, Clement shifts to 3B or if we resign Bo to play 2B then Schneider covers 2B when Bo needs a day off, Barger covers 3B when Clement needs a day off, Clement covers SS when Gimenez needs a day off, etc.)

A guy like IKF I'd only sign to a AAA deal to backup everyone if needed. Carlos Mendoza might cover that in AAA as is (newest signing - a pure minor leaguer so far but has shown hope with his bat to go with covering 3B/2B and a bit of OF). If injuries happen at 2B/3B/SS who comes in becomes the question - Schneider playing everyday for 2 weeks at 2B is endurable but you don't want him there for 2 months if you can avoid it. Charles McAdoo, Mendoza, Josh Kasevich (if not rule 5'd), are all realistic options for 2026 injury situations. Arjun Nimmala, JoJo Parker, and others will try to climb the ladder fast this year and force the issue ala Yesavage, but that is rare to happen so I wouldn't count on it - those guys are more 2027 or 2028 options.

Biggest gains/changes will probably be to the pen. Starters I'm sure will see 1 big addition (FA or trade) while the pen should see some churn - 2 or 3 pitchers added, a few subtracted. Relievers are such a crapshoot though it is so hard to guess who'll come and who'll go. Ideally at least 1 LH reliever though - I don't think many of us can survive another full year of Little being used in high pressure situations (nor can John Schneider I suspect).

Just saw on MLBTR their summary of fan voting for where free agents will end up. Biggest blowout was Bo Bichette back to Toronto at 81.5% picking that. Jays also led with Ranger Suarez (13.2%), Chris Bassitt (30.8%), Seranthony Dominguez (25%), Gregory Soto (14.3%), and Max Scherzer (33.2%). Jays came in 3rd on Robert Suarez (7% behind the Dodgers & Mets). Tucker is Dodgers (39.9%) and Yankees (17.8%).

Of those, it'd be nice to have Bo return, Suarez would look good in the rotation, Soto is a LH reliever (would be nice), but I really doubt any of Dominguez/Bassitt/Scherzer will return.Robert Suarez would be nice as a closer/high level setup.

Do they have a link to the results page yet?

I think you guys are nibbling around the edges of why Bos is a better signing for us than tucker or another OF.

Signing an OF means needing to add an IKF or replacement to the roster while losing a Lukes or Schneider.

Signing Bo means losing nobody (unless we decide to clearly upgrade on someone) and not needing any IKF type.

Tucker would hit second between Springer and Guerrero. Lukes would move to the bench.

Keeping Bo would mean having him at second--hopefully--so Clement has to play third and Barger is in the outfield.
That still means Santander in left so Lukes is on the bench anyway.
Sticking to Bichette in the clean up spot, we'd probably see Varsho or Santander hitting second.

I like Lukes but you're not making long-term decisions because of a 31 YO 4th OFer. Anyway, they wouldn't even need to add someone if they saw Schneider as a 2Bman or maybe Leo Jimenez is ready to play in the majors. He's been really good in AAA. Even if they felt like they needed to add someone it would be someone better than IKF. There are plenty of utility IF available as fee agents. Would be very happy with either Bo or Tucker (or both) but this isn't a reason to choose one or the other.

Lukes had an 89 wRC+ in the 2nd half (90 wRC+ in the playoffs), is 31 years old, and it appears can't be relied on to play CF defensively. When weighing the pros and cons of Bo vs Tucker, I don't think "how does it effect Nathan Lukes?" would even be in the top 20 factors to consider.

Scottt - you got it. Uglyone - that isn't how it works. If Bo is added then the lineup is 2B:Bo, 3B: Clement, RF: Barger, if Bellinger or Tucker is added then 2B: Clement, 3B: Barger, RF: Tucker - in both situations Lukes/Schneider are benched. Unless you really think Clement or Barger will be moved to the bench to allow Lukes/Schneider to share an OF spot.
Lets look at career-Last year-projected '26 wRC+ for the key players...

• Clement: 87-98-99 age 30 IF
• Barger: 95-107-110 age 26 RF/3B
• Lukes: 106-103-109 age 31 OF
• Schneider: 109-127-105 age 27 LF/2B
  

  ---

• Bo: 122-134-121 age 28 2B
• Tucker: 138-136-136 age 29 RF
• Bellinger: 119-125-115 age 30 OF
• Bregman: 133-125-120 age 32 3B
• Eugenio Suárez: 113-125-108 age 34 (see this as an emergency choice in January)
• Kim: 99-82-100 age 30 IF (also emergency signing)
• Schwarber: 126-152-130 age 33 DH (others mentioned him, see no chance there)

So any signing has to outhit whoever is benched or be an incredible fielder. Established Lukes/Schneider projected for 109/105 so 115 has to be the minimum to justify benching them (with above average fielding), 120's or better ideally with league average fielding. Bo might work at 2B (not at SS), Tucker clearly qualifies as an upgrade. Bellinger is a marginal one. Bregman is a clear upgrade. Suarez/Kim/Schwarber aren't unless other moves happen to make it work.

I was thinking Bellinger made sense and I keep flip flopping on him. He is affordable most likely, but how much of an upgrade could he be? His hard hit % is just 37.9% last year 38.3% lifetime. Schneider is 41.1%/38.9% for comparison. Lukes is 36.7%/35.3%. That makes me very nervous about Bellinger. Tucker is 40.2%/44.0%, Bo 48.8%/46.9%, Bregman 44.4%/38.4%. Boy that makes me like Tucker/Bo/Bregman a lot more, especially Bo. I think we've been spoiled by him over the years and start to forget just how good a hitter he really is.

In the end #1 is how well will that player fit. Bo if he will play 2B fits fine (Clement to 3B, Barger to RF). Tucker/Bellinger/Bregman all can fit in fine too (RF/OF/3B respectively with Clement at 2B and Barger either RF or 3B depending). Ideally a LH hitter to bat 2nd (Tucker/Bellinger) but I see that as more of a preference thing, not mandatory. Positioning is mandatory and no way on earth I want to see Bo at SS outside of emergency situations ever again if he returns. If the Jays are feeling rich (LAD level) then they have $100+ mil open to get to $400 mil (doubt it is the case) then they can get 2 hitters plus a starter. But then more guys get benched (probably Clement to super-utility role where they try to mix him in somewhere everyday).

If Bo only is signed, both Lukes and Schneider stay on the team.

If Tucker only is signed, one of Lukes or Schneider is gone and someone like IKF is added.

Mattingly acknowledges in an interview what many of us believed at the time: the coaching staff made a mistake when they told IKF to stay extremely close to the third base bag.

https://x.com/JonHeyman/status/1993119616265052434?s=20

uglyone - how do you see that working? No backup IF outside of Schneider (for 2B) and Barger (for 3B)? Bench of Heineman, Schneider, Lukes, and Straw? Or do you put Clement on the bench, Barger at 3B, so Lukes/Schneider can play in the OF? I really don't see anyway on earth the Jays bench Clement so Lukes and Schneider can play. Projections have L/S in the mid 100's for wRC+ while Clement would be at 99. How can you see that working? 3 backup OF makes no sense - and drove me nuts quite often when the Jays did that last year at times.

Jimenez almost certainly will be the backup IF with a slight shot at IKF or another vet being signed to cover that role (I figure that is a spot the Jays can easily save a bit of cash). I expect Lukes to be part of a trade (a small part) due to his value as a 4th OF which isn't needed here. Straw is a lock as 4th OF due to his high end defense and high contract that no one will want unless they want him everyday in CF and with Varsho's injury history you don't want to go without a high end backup on defense at least. Schneider's value as an OF/2B who can cover 3B in an emergency and I suspect will be working out at 1B this spring too is higher than Lukes as a pure OF - at least here in Toronto.

As to Mattingly - I heard him saying that same thing on the Wilner Podcast (Deep Left Field) earlier. Btw, on his podcasts when he reads letters John from London is me in case anyone was wondering. I send in way too many emails just because it is fun to hear him read them even if he often cuts chunks out now and then (yeah, I ramble in emails too) and has odd interpretations at times.

IMO right now (I keep juggling) - the best combo value wise is probably Bo at 2B (8/$208=$26 per), Imai SP (6/$150=$25 per), Fairbanks (2/$18=$9 per) = $60 mil per year for the next 2 years with Imai and Bo around long after. I figure the Jays have $42 mil available right now, but Rogers should be willing to up the payroll a bit for 2026 to shoot for a WS win. That'd cover off all needs - keeping the offense strong, new starter, and a new closer. Hard to see how the Jays get there for less. Plus 0 draft picks lost, keep a full IFA budget. No QO involved other than Bo's (so no bonus pick from losing him). Trade Lukes and others to get new arms in the pen (could see Rodriguez sent to a team desperate for starting help, Berrios could be too if the Jays are trying to clear some payroll but Berrios would be harder to deal).

Yeah with Gimenez Bo Clement on the team no need to carry another defensive IF on the bench, regardless of which guys are starting where.

With only 2 of those guys on the team then yeah you need a 3rd defensive middle IF on the bench.

Bo isn't a defensive middle infield.
Technically, Schneider can play 2B.
They might want to sit Barger or Gimenez against a lefty, so a right bat works best here.

If they get Tucker, they only need an 8th or 9th batter to play 2B.

Lots of guys hit the IL this year.
Depth matters, but that means they need playable guys in AAA.

The mistake is that Varsho was tasked with hitting a fly ball and he didn't.
They were not set for the contact play but they sent the runner anyway and it was close.

If they lose Bo, they are 100% going to add an IKF type to the roster, at the expense of a Schneider or Lukes. It's unavoidable.

Well, another spare part signed for AAA - Rodolfo Castro - 84 OPS+, has games in the majors at 2B/SS/3B - just 627 PA in the majors though over 3 seasons, entering his age 27 season. Hit 235/324/421 in AAA for Philly last year (SS/3B plus a touch of CF/LF/RF/P).

Scott: why limit yourself to one way to score (fly ball) when you can create two viable pathways to scoring (fly ball and ground ball).

That was Mattingly’s point.

Had IKF been a step or two further down the line, he still could have scored on a fly ball, and he also could have scored on the ground ball. He wasn’t going to get doubled off on a caught line drive because Varsho doesn’t hit line drives to third. Mattingly explained all this in the video. He said the coaching staff would have had IKF take a bigger lead, had they (the coaching staff) had more time to think this through properly. They made an overly conservative decision in the heat of the moment, and the team paid the price.

The Red Sox traded their number 5 prospect to the Cardinals for Sonny Gray.

Davis Schneider is improving offensively. The power seems to be there 11Hr in 227PA in 2025.

At first blush, this looks like a very good trade by the Red Sox. Gray can start in the postseason next October (and he’ll help them get to the postseason).

A trade for Gray makes more sense than giving a huge amount of money to a FA pitcher like Cease or Valdez (in my opinion).

It didn't go well for Sunny last time he pitched in the AL East.

Gray is a weird pitcher. Still very good despite not throwing hard but prone to games where he gets absolutely shelled. I think AL East will be a lot tougher for him. He pitched two games against the East last year and gave up 9 runs in 10 innings. Don't think that's what he'll do but he won't get to face Pirates three times either. Red Sox also have up a fair bit to get him. Both guys are legitimate prospects. He only has a one year contract with option but it's $40M. He definitely improves the Red Sox but it isn't a move I'd be happy if the Jays made.

Per MLBTR, St Louis is "including $20MM of cash to help offset Gray’s salary."

Gray's 2025/26/27 salary is $25mil, $35mil and $30mil ($5mil buyout).

IMO Gray is not better than Berrios whose 2026 salary is $18mil and 2027/28 is $24mil/each. If Berrios can have his usual yearly performance I think he may opt out after 2026. Looking for a longer deal.

How long before Dodger slayer, Tatsuya Imai is officially a Jay?

If Bo leaves, I could see the Jays rolling with an infield of Barger at 3B, Gimenez at SS and Clement at 2B, with Schneider able to cover 2B and Leo Jimenez as the main backup at all three positions. I like Jimenez, and Steamer sees him as just shy of a league-average hitter. But there is no denying that is a thin infield bench, and Jimenez is pretty untested. Pretty easy to see the appeal of an IKF-type in that situation, although I think that would be a mistake.

While I still like Ha-Seong Kim from a pure value position, considering matters a little further, he basically is a more expensive Ernie Clement - should be about average as a right-handed hitter, versatile, good glove. Since we have that guy, I don't see why it would make sense to get another, unless you treat one or both of them as a super-utility/backup. Clement was probably too good to take out of the everyday lineup (a 106 wRC+, if you include the postseason, on to of stellar defence) and Kim will be too expensive and sought after to sign to be a backup.

Sure Jimenez could be their choice for the IKF role but that still comes at the expense of ditching one of lukes/schneider.

But tbh i don't think they like Jimenez' defense enough for that role. And not sure he can hit RHP either.

Any iteration of this off season where Bo, Tucker or another front end starter are not signed means failure for this fan. This team finally has earned itself a label as a destination with winning culture and has lots of money coming off the books next year. Tucker and Bo are both comfortably below the superstar hotshot free agencies of Soto and Ohtani. Time to strike is now.

Agreed dalimon5 - One of Bo/Tucker should be signed or do a mega trade to get someone else with a big bat in there. Imai would be nice with his attitude of 'I want to beat the best' - perfect attitude for this club. He wouldn't let anyone rest easy after last year, not that Vlad would either. Of note: Imai's team the last 2 years was very poor, well under 500, in '23 they were good but they haven't made the finals since 2008, well before his time. So odds are good that he is desperate like Vlad was feeling and how Ohtani was when he signed with the Dodgers to get that playoff moment. He only saw the playoffs in 2022 (swept round 1) and 2019 (lost in a later round but didn't make finals). Yusei Kikuchi also played for that team in Imai's early years which could be a plus in selling him on Toronto (depending on his desire to be a groundbreaker and how big a groundbreaker he wants to be).

Yeah, Bo & Imai could be a nice combo at roughly $51 mil per based on estimates. Then just keep adding decent spare parts that will be shuffled until the right combo is found. That should fit the budget and give the Jays a real shot. Someone like Tucker or doing a trade for Seager would be nice, but either would be over $30 mil a year thus eating an even bigger part of the budget.

Easton Lucas dumped today - he is signing with a team overseas for 2026 it seems. He was never going to be much here, just a guy to shuffle between Buffalo and Toronto until options used up then released most likely. Hopefully things work well for him wherever he goes.

Corey Seager I have no interest in, he's getting up there in age combined with his injury history and that huge contract, BUT, holy yowzers look at the numbers he puts up. A WAR darling. Probably no room for him here with Gimenez though.

FYI: Pre-arb bonus pool cash handed out. 3 Jays got some - Heineman $304,942; Barger $248,511; and Lukes $222,545. The biggest bonus easily went to Skenes $3,436,343. Yesavage will probably get some next year - it is based on awards won and WAR (it doesn't say which version they use). The cost for this is shared by all 30 teams, so the Jays don't pay those amounts directly - all the cash from the 30 teams is put into a pool and shared among the players. Full details at the link.

Jays apparently interested in Ketel Marte who Arizona is trying to deal. He's 32 and signed until 2030/2031 (player option) but he's a fantastic player and his contract is so cheap that if he sucks last couple of years, it's still a major win. Would obviously take a haul to get him.

I remember mentioning him earlier, but agreed odds were very low of the Jays being able to take him from Arizona. The question is if they are dumping salaries now as sharing a division with LAD, SFG, and SDP you have 3 big budget teams so any window of contention will be short unless you are willing to shoot over $200 mil in payroll. Arizona tried that the past 2 years and it didn't work out (89 wins in '24, 80 in '25 post WS loss in '23). It makes sense to me they'd step back now and rebuild. Currently their 2 biggest per year deals are Burns at $32.9 mil per through 2030, and Eduardo Rodriguez $20 per for 26 and 27. I'd be surprised if they tried dumping any other deals, as the others look decent on the surface. Burnes had TJ surgery in June so he won't be back until last '26 or maybe not even until '27. This year is his age 31 season so you'd be paying for age 32-36 - basically he'd be insurance for those years against losing both Gausman & Bieber. Not hard to imagine Arizona trying to trade him. Rodríguez has had 2 bad years in a row - 0.5 bWAR over 204 IP combined 85 ERA+. Ick. Entering his age 33 season. K's in the 8.3 range per 9 IP vs 3.5 BB/9. Not someone I'd be after, but as weight to reduce the prospect cost might be worth it.

Bottom line is Marte won't be cheap - either eat a ton of the payroll being wasted by Arizona on Burnes or Rodriguez, or give up a lot of prospect capital. But damn, a 145 OPS+ last year, 154 the year before, 121 lifetime. Basically imagine Bo but with defense and a willingness to play 2B. If you can sign Bo that'd be the better option, but one has to knock on Arizona's door and see what they want for him. Can't hurt to check.

Jays also signed Rodolpho Castro to a minor league deal. He's a guy whose surface-level stats look blah but there's something interesting there. He gave up switch hitting last year and has a 129 WRC+ career vs LHP. He hasn't been in majors in a few years so a long-shot but having a lefty-mashing utility guy would be interesting. (I think having better vs lefty/righty bench guys is somewhere Jays can easily improve. Schneider is going to treat everyone like they have big splits so you might as well get players who actually do.)

Choices, choices. wRC+ 2025/career/proj 2026 per year salary 2026 (based on MLBTR estimates or real figures if applicable or Cot's contract arbitration estimate - using luxury tax hit)

• 2B: Clement (98-87-99 $4.5), Bo (134-122-121 $26), Marte (145-121-136 $19.4 plus prospects)
• 3B: Barger (107-95-110 $900k), Clement (98-87-99 $4.5), Bregman (125-133-120 $31), Eugenio Suárez (125-113-108 $20)
• corner OF: Lukes (103-106-109 $900k), Schneider (127-109-105 $900k), Barger (107-95-110 $900k), Tucker (136-138-136 $35), Bellinger (125-119-115 $27)

All other slots are locked in outside of IF backup.

So which combo works best? Current (Clement-Barger IF, Lukes/Schneider LF with Santander in RF), resign Bo/sign Bregman/sign Suarez/trade for Marte (Bo or Bregman or Suarez or Marte-Clement IF, Barger in RF, Santander LF) or sign Tucker/Bellinger (Clement-Barger IF, T/B in RF, Santander LF). Each has pluses, each has minuses. Current is by far the cheapest. Signing Bregman the strongest on defense. Tucker the best for pure offense. Some options just look bad anyway you cut it (Suarez especially). There is the question, and the challenge. Do the Jays wait and let someone else set the market, then go after whoever is left? Do they sit back and sign a starter (Valdez/Cease/Suarez/Imai/whoever) and see if someone falls through the cracks and becomes a cheap option for the lineup, risking no upgrade in the end? I think a big part depends on their own internal projections right now. Do the Jays see any of these players as significantly better than these early public projections do? Is Bo willing to play 2B from now on? Is Marte available at a reasonable price (equivalent of less than $7 mil per year for 5 years thus similar in cost to Bo)? Guess we'll find out what the Jays think at some point soon. Hopefully before I retype this basic stuff again as I keep repeating myself I think while trying to find other ways of juggling the numbers to see what is possible/what is not.

Baseball America has a new Jays top-10 prospect list out.

1. Trey Yesavage
2. Arjun Nimmala
3. JoJo Parker
4. Johnny King
5. Gage Stanifer
6. Ricky Tiedemann
7. Juan Sanchez
8. RJ Schreck
9. Jake Bloss
10. Jake Cook

Interesting list!

Suddenly there's a whole lotta upside at the of that list. Top-6 all have impact upside imo.

That's actually the list of available players submitted by Atkins to Antonetti this morning. Tucker is Plan B (I think).

Cook was a fascinating pick. Definitely in the "boom/bust" camp because of how raw he is as a hitter at 21, but we need to take shots at more guys like that (Parker, Piasentin, and Bullard are all interesting prep hitters).

Juan Sanchez will be fun to watch. The power is very real.

WE GOT CEASE

$30m x 7yrs

awesome. The one SP i wanted.

Wow. Lots of money but who cares? Jays get best pitcher. Rotation is now Gausman, Cease, Bieber, Yesavage, Berrios with Lauer as #6. Awesome! Now go sign Bo or Tucker.

In Atkins/Shapiro we trust.

I want to hear from Greenfrog and Marc before I make my official judgement.

(I remembered today that I once advocated for signing for Rendon...)

Would like to know if this means Jays needed to add an extra year.

There but for the grace of God go I.

(In reference to Rendon.)

MLBTR forecast seven years $189M, pretty close on the dollars. They thought he would go to the Red Sox, Orioles or Phillies.

Here is the first para of their write up:

Cease may be the most durable pitcher in baseball, but in recent years he’s alternated between dominating and disappointing. After a 2.20 ERA, second-place Cy Young finish in 2022, Cease followed with a 4.58 ERA. He bounced back to a 3.47 ERA/fourth place Cy finish in ’24, only to revert to a 4.55 ERA this year. You can imagine Cease ranking much higher on this list had those seasons occurred in a different order.

Interesting to know what this means for the budget left with respect to bats.

STEAMER

Cease 3.61era 3.59fip 3.71xfip
Bieber 3.86era 3.77fip 3.68xfip
Yesavage 3.86era 3.90fip 3.87xfip
Gausman 4.05era 3.95fip 4.02xfip
Berrios 4.52era 4.53fip 4.36xfip

Tiedemann 4.23era 4.35fip 4.27xfip
Lauer 4.55era 4.70fip 4.60xfip
Bloss 4.62era 4.66fip 4.57xfip

Cease is the best FA SP on the market (depending on your thoughts on Imai) so the Jays clearly shopped at the top of the market here. Not sure I like 7 years for a starter, so there is risk there, but short term this is great for a rotation that badly needed arms and upside.

FIP is more consistent in this years and a better indicator of future performance.

3.41, 3.10, 3.76, 3.10, 3.56

*these years

Like a lot of people, I don't love seven years at all, but Cease was my choice for best free agent starter on the market. (Not the best starter value-wise, but the best starter.)

I've seen a couple of lists, such as on Fangraphs, that had him as the third-best free agent after Tucker and Bregman and I think that's a pretty reasonable take.

Ignoring the length, I am pretty happy. Suarez might be a better choice for a one year deal, but I'd be hesitant to sign him for several seasons due to health concerns and worries about what happens once he loses a bit of velo. Framber I'd shy away away for obvious reasons. I like King, but there's a health risk. I think Gallen is done as an upper-end arm and Imai would be exciting, but he's not a Yamamoto-style ace.

Cease isn't without risk, but I think if they were going to go longer with someone, he's clearly the best option.

I like that the team bolstered the rotation and that Cease is only 29 (almost 30), compared to Framber (32). I wasn't all that high on Suarez (very good but durability issues), King (I used to really like him but lately he's had significant injury issues), or Imai (small stature, unproven in majors, one scout said he looked bored at times when he was pitching well). And as mentioned the other day, I checked out on Framber after the incident where he (allegedly) threw at his catcher.

I feel fairly good -- but not completely confident -- about Cease's chances of doing well under Pete Walker and amid a solid veteran rotation and clubhouse. At least in the early part of the contract.

On the other hand, 7/210 is a big contract for a SP who has logged quite a few innings and has already had TJ surgery earlier in his career. For what it's worth, Keith Law seems to be the low commentator on Cease (Law ranked him the #9 FA), saying on The Athletic that he's "a mid-rotation starter who has the raw materials to put together another 5+ WAR season, but his baseline level is more around 2-3 wins, with the added value of the likelihood that he gives his team close to 200 innings."

I am looking forward to 2026 and this signing adds to that anticipation. I hope the Blue Jays can bring back Bo or sign Tucker, or maybe pry away someone like Marte. I think they need another elite bat inserted somewhere in the top of the lineup.

For comparison Gausman signed for 5yrs at age 31 and Springer for 6yrs at age 31.



Also, sounds like jays are deferring a bunch of money.

If some of the money is deferred and this allows the Blue Jays to continue to add significant talent, then the signing looks better.

Jays absolutely needed an ace-type with Gausman and Bieber both FA's after this year. Cease also had one of the worst defenses behind him last year so he must be looking forward to Jays' gloves. I expect one more hitter and one reliever at least. I'm not sure if hitter will be Bo/Tucker or more like Polanco/Okamoto/Suarez. Much prefer the former but they could do the latter and still compete.

Signing Cease early in the off-season should send a positive signal to other FAs who might be considering the Blue Jays. The signal being, this is a team that is a legitimate postseason contender in 2026.

i honestly don't think money is much of a limitation at the moment.

Long term, high dollar contracts for pitchers are just a crapshoot. Who knows how this one will turn out. Even if this blows up in their face, it’s hard to criticize the FO for the process here. Like most of their free agent pitcher signings, Cease has an established history of durability. More importantly, this shows that the FO correctly identified that the team’s biggest weakness last year (by a lot) was it’s starting pitching - which could charitably be described as mediocre (the mediocrity being partially obscured by excellent team defense(. Thumbs up from me on this one.

I think this is a great signing. They have the money, players are eager to sign here, and they were able to get the best pitcher on the market. Over time, we may regret the length, but that's just part of going all-in to win now. Rogers profited greatly from the long playoff run and seems willing to spend big now to keep the momentum going... It's a very, very good time to be a Blue Jays fan.

High risk, high reward. Love seeing them take a shot. Jays with the first big FA signing of the off-season is pretty much unheard of.

One thing you have to like about Cease is the high K rate, one of the best ways to assess pitcher quality. 215 Ks in 168 IP last year.

BRef similar pitchers to Cease:

1. Jack Flaherty
2. Rich Harden
3. Noah Syndergaard
4. Josh Johnson (ouch)
5. Merrill Kelly
6. Pablo Lopez
7. Mike Clevinger
8. Connie Johnson
9. Freddy Peralta
10. Garrett Richards

Cease has made at least 32 starts in each of the last 5 seasons, and made 12 starts (full season) in the shortened 2020 season, so 2020-25 he's been about as durable a starter as you can have. The Jays clearly value durability so this move is consistent with that, except now there's great swing and miss rates to go along with it.

Who knows what the CBA will look like after 2026. Maybe it's more of the same, or maybe it's a cap (after a lost season), so the Jays see a window and had to take advantage of it. Props to the FO and ownership. Hopefully it works out.

"i honestly don't think money is much of a limitation at the moment."

Money was never an issue it was getting players to sign here when they had better markets to sign with. Now they need to keep pushing with another big signing for a bat and then tighten up that bullpen and resign Varsho.