I was disappointed to see Straw getting the start in CF today and then i saw Orelvis at 3B even though we know he's not making the team so no biggie really.


More interesting maybe is that Varsho is slotted in between Santander and Springer in the 4 hole, meaning Springer is bumped down another notch.

They continue to use Gimenez ahead of Kirk which does make some sense but also condemns Kirk to the bottom of the order....if Kirk gets back to hitting closer to what he used to it's gonna be hard to keep Gimrnez in front of him despite the DP thing. A good hitting Kirk would slot in the 4 hole.

I am not sure how dialed in Keegan Matheson is to the Jays FO/management, but he seems to believe that the 26-man roster on Opening Day will include both Barger and Loperfido. Given their ages and the glut of players in AAA as it is, I think I'd be fine with that even though I'd prefer Roden in there. That still leaves a bit of a glut in AAA, but a little less so. That would leave a AAA outfield of Roden, Clase, and Berroa/Straw/Lukes, and infield of Martinez, Jimenez, Kasevich, and Nunez, with Stefanic in there somewhere. Although I would still be surprised if we don't see a trade, even if it's minor, by the end of Spring Training.

of all the options they have, taking Loperfido and Barger seems likely to be the worst.

Varsho has really demolished some balls this spring.

That was a bomb for Varsho.  
Great pitching by some key relievers ... I've always viewed Garcia as a middle-reliever who could pitch in the late innings, but he looks tough to hit right now. 

Are they thinking Lucas might have a role down the road as an opener?  Not sure why he alone of the relievers keeps starting games otherwise.
Roden looks more 'ready' to me than Barger, unless they like Barger more for the ability to play some 3B?  Loperfido feels like the guy they might have liked going into spring, and he does seem to be toolsy, but I sure don't see him as a good choice for the bigs based on this spring.  I'd put Straw or Schneider ahead of Loperfido, and like John Northey said in the other thread, I think Lukes and Stefanic (too a lesser extent) are the likely choices to sit at the end of the bunch.
Internal evaluations of D remain the wildcard in my mind - do they see Lukes or Loperfido as legit CF?  Can Barger play some third to allow for late game moves?

That was a nice bunt by Stefanic, even if they got their signs mixed, and Bethancourt with two missiles to catch baserunners.  He is starting to feel like the third catcher.  

I'd stick to Varsho behind Santander until he stops hitting.
For pitchers with splits, you get 2 left bats in a row and it's not a great spot to bring in a lefty, Santander switches, Varsho can be pinched for.

Most of the AAA starters are behind; Kloff, Bash, etc...
Lazaro Estrada has looked pretty decent but he's heading to AA.
So is Jennings.
Bloss has shown an uptick or almost 2mph on the fastball. He could be interesting if he throws enough strikes.

Roden should definitely make it, but for whatever reason it looks likely that he starts in AAA, so the options beyond him and Martinez (who also looks like he will start in AAA) are interchangeable to me. Just take the ones with the highest potential upside. Barger actually has some upside even though he may not reach it (bat speed, exit velo) and Loperfido (while I wouldn't bet on him being anything at the big league level) has more upside than Berroa, Lukes, Straw, etc. The Jays need to get lucky with player development, and a lot of the AAA prospects are getting long in the tooth where they need to get some type of opportunity even if it's on the bench.

The Rays have cancelled their plan to build a new arena.
I could see insurance costs becoming a problem going forward.

Those Bauxites that are interested in Brent Rooker, here is his history & profile. A high draft pick in 2017 from college. His bat is his calling card. He K'd a lot in the minors and majors. A minor trade landed him in KC who lost faith and DFA'd him. Oakland claimed him and he provided great power in LF 2023 & 24. He is doing a J Bautista career path. Turned 30 years old in Nov.

There are plenty of minor league players that are similar with huge power, K a lot and have weak D. I suppose every org has a few of this type of prospect.

I really don't care who makes it at this point. There is no rhyme or reason guys have good springs or bad springs outside of the fact they could be injured. You can't read anything into it; you can cite so many cases of guys looking great in spring or looking terrible in spring, then they go out and have a great April. In fact, somewhere there are papers and case studies of spring training stats meaning very very little. Same with spring training batting orders and final roster spots. It makes for great fodder when spring training is so long and covered so closely, but the bottom line is health.
The only bad news this spring (and yes, this includes the Guerrero saga) is that a key bullpen piece (Swanson) has been replaced with a huge question mark (Tate) and that Scherzer has a thumb issue. I'd say that's a decent spring. I put absolutely no stock in the fact some Jays are having good spring trainings. There is a much greater chance Alan Roden is the next Simon Pond than Kyle Schwarber.

I'd love to go back to the days where the odd spring training game was on TV in mid March just to re-establish contact with the team, and a few games on radio just to hear the sounds of baseball.

Geez this turned into a crotchedy style argument, but I am really over this month and a half long fluff.

I'd love to go back to the days where the odd spring training game was on TV in mid March just to re-establish contact with the team, and a few games on radio just to hear the sounds of baseball.

It is nice to see some of the more unheralded prospects during garbage time of the second half of ST games. Particularly for those like myself that don't follow the minors.

Now that expanded Sept rosters aren't a thing anymore, there's fewer opportunities to see guys in the system.

If only to actually see what they look like and confirm that they do in fact exist. Particularly the RJ Schrek, Jacob Sharp, Eddison Paulino types acquired at the deadline in the firesale.

I love watching those spring game. It's just as entertaining as watching the games in July.
Yeah, they don't count towards the season, so what.
Some people only watch hockey once the playoffs start.

I think the spring games are a good indicator of April production. I don't think they mean anything with respect to performance in July or August.
Many hitters are still looking for their timing in April. If they can't square the ball in March, they might not be able to do it in April either.
A reliever who can throw 97+mph has a better chance of overpowering a hitter in April than in July. Especially if he mixes in a good breaking ball.

I don't think Tate will be ready by opening day. He's probably going to ramp up in AAA.
He signed a dual contract.

Roden is not the same type of player as Schwarber. The most interesting thing about Roden are his numbers at AAA last year.
The GM went out and challenged him at the start of camp and he has an OPS of 1.482 with 5 walks and 1 strike out.
He has a large burn on his chin from hitting the fence shagging balls.
Schwarber is a career .230 hitter who led the National League in strike outs in 22 and 23.

I don't mind if they gamble with Straw.
He's the best defender they have in CF.
He's hitting .476.
If he has a good March, they could probably flip him if they eat a good chunk of his salary.
He's also the type of guys they like to have on the bench. A defensive replacement who can pinch run.

but most of the games have been on tv no?

The Jays just signed Freigher Braco. 19 year old RHP for the DSL2 team.

They released Christopher Castro FSL LHP. I liked him.

A Nimmala had an exit Velo of about 106mph on a triple last year. 19 years old, 6'1" 170lbs. He will get bigger and stronger. I hope he gets to Vancouver soon next year.

Castro last pitched 2 shutout innings for Dunedin Sept 5th. So maybe not injured. I liked his stuff but his results were just OK.

F Braco is from Venezuela not Cuba. I don't know how much money he would get. IMO 19 year old Cubans would get more money, but I don't know.

Cubans cannot be signed out of Cuba. They usually get more money because they have enough experience to be signed to MLB contracts.

Adding to what pooks137 said about seeing players that you only recognize by their names, there was a Jay's player named Jay Harry who hit a home run on Sunday. He was totally unfamiliar to me but I see he was the return when the Jays traded Trevor Richards to the Twins last season.

Also, Will Robertson, who is a familiar name, cranked a home run to centerfield which is 414 feet.

get my IFA stuff from this guy

https://x.com/bkfan09

90% Mets stuff but get drips about other teams

metZZ 1986®️@bkfan09 · Mar 11
Yankees have $10M-$11M tied up in two players in the 2030 class

https://x.com/FAN590/status/1900595264513093915

Schneider on the bench spots: "There's still some battles going on there... there's probably three to four guys fighting for two spots."


which sounds like he's already got 2 slots selected (i.e. one starter and one bench slot), and i'm not sure who those two would be.

he seems to indicate Varsho is still a possibility to be ready to field by opening day.

Varsho's health will have a LOT to do with the opening day roster. Seems the Jays don't feel confident about Roden in CF even for a week (2 games in CF all spring), a bit more confident with Lukes & Berroa (4 games each), Straw they are very confident in (9 games), and Loperfido (6 games). Non contenders were Shreck (2), Clase (4), Brown (4), and Arias (2). Loperfido has faced the toughest opponents (8.1), then Berroa (7.4), Roden (7.3), Lukes (7.2), ... , Straw (6.6 - A+/AA level). So Straws stats are very much of the 'don't believe it for a second' level. Don't be shocked if the Jays trade him for peanuts before spring is over to someone thinking he found some magic. I see it as Loperfido if healthy and Varsho not 100%, Roden if Varsho is 100%. Last spot is Lukes I suspect (the guy would get into maybe a game a week, running for the catcher late, maybe).

So DH is Varsho or Roden, with Wagner also in the mix along with Schneider. Loperfido or Roden on the roster, but not both. Bench infielder (who will get splinters in his butt from sitting so much) I'm still betting on Stefanic as I don't see anyone else the Jays would be OK with having sit most games. Hard to see where the battles are that Schneider is talking about. Wagner-Schneider-Stefanic-Lukes the most likely bench with Roden trying to grab a shot over Wagner at DH. Loperfido wanting that CF job until Varsho is 100% but isn't doing enough to win it (608 OPS vs 8.1 quality), Straw has hit amazing (1.145 OPS) but against weak pitching. Barger might be pushing his way into the argument for DH/backup with his 1.149 OPS vs 7.5 quality though (hadn't noticed how much better he is doing after a slow start).

The more I dig the more I see battles. That is a very good thing. Right now cases can be made for Barger (1149)-Roden (1482)-Wagner (670 but damn good 2024)-Schneider (1240) for the DH slot (plus backup 1B/LF/RF/3B depending on player). Barger actually fits the desired profile best with his RF/3B time (covers for Santander and could be a bat at 3B when needed, shifting Clement to SS if Bo needs a day off, has a dozen games at 1B in the minors). I suspect Schneider is a lock (only RH bat) and one of Barger-Roden-Wagner gets the other slot (LH) with the 2 guys I mentioned earlier for the far end of the bench. If Varsho has to DH then the LH kid DH doesn't get a shot yet, but Loperfido does in CF.

Backup catcher was to be a battle, but Heineman has been solid (625 OPS, solid D), Bethancourt the #1 contender behind Heineman but 174 OPS kills that. The others have seen very weak pitchers (6.5 or less) and done poorly (3 hits over 23 AB's) so they'll all be in the minors with Heineman likely to be there all of 2025 unless he gets hurt.

If you assume Varsho is starting in CF and Wagner is the DH, then the bench is probably Schneider, the backup catcher, the 4th OF, and then one more. I know there seems to be conflicting reports about Straw and his impact on the CBT, but the Jays are paying him $11M over the next two years regardless, so if he actually looks like he's capable of filling a bench role, then he might be the guy they end up going with. The last spot is a little harder to identify. Ideally they start Roden at DH and use Wagner in a utility role as he can cover multiple positions (2B/3B/1B) and none of them well enough to start there, so he's practically a utility player anyway. However if they intend to start him at DH, then the last spot becomes a bit tricky. Barger might be a good bet as he's already on the 40 man roster, and can cover two positions (3B/RF). Won't be Jimenez as he only covers 2B/SS, and Martinez is still too good/young of a prospect to use in a bench role.

5 hopefuls in the lineup today.

1B Wagner and DH Schneider at the top of the lineup.

LF Loperfido CF Lukes SS Jimenez at the bottom.

Caught some of the Jays in 30 last night.

Bethancourt looked good in the highlights throwing out two runners.

Heineman likely has the backup job but Christian looked good throwing at least.

Even if Varsho isn't ready to field on opening day, I think he'll make the team given how he's been hitting. He's hitting the ball really hard on a consistent basis, and the club can't afford to leave him off, especially with other teams like NYY and BOS dealing with injuries.

Assuming no injuries, this is what I think the Jays will do (not what I would do):
Catchers: Kirk and Heineman
Infield: Guerrero Jr., Gimenez, Bichette, Clement, Barger, Schneider
Outfield: Santander, Loperfido, Springer, Lukes
DH: Varsho
SP: Berrios, Gausman, Bassitt, Scherzer, Francis
RP: Hoffman, Green, Garcia, Little, Sandlin, Yarbrough, Rodriguez, Pop/Nance

*Add Wagner if Varsho is on the IL to start the year

I see Wagner playing 1B when Vlad is the DH. Not Barger or Schneider.

CF is a race between Loperfido and Straw. I haven't seen Loperfido hit in a Jays uniform.

Well this is embarrassing for management.

“They asked me to oversee the hitting last year and that didn’t go great.. so they kinda push me back.. to the bench, defensive, base-running role again." - Don Mattingly on Blair & Barker

I think Wagner is close to a lock on the team. Hit very well last year in minors and majors and can backup a bunch if spots and is best option for DH. Think Schneider, Loperfido, Barger, Lukes, Straw, and Roden are fighting for three spots. Think it will be Schneider, Barger and probably Loperfido.

If Loperfido can get his bat going, I think I've seen mention that he's quite a strong defender at 1B. The problem is that you don't want him there until his offence is in the same range as Wagner's.

Is Eric Lauder pitching his way onto the radar? He has looked good, and still only 29.

For fun I just read that the Jays 2nd game (first night game) will be on 'bleck' Apple TV. Nice for the handful who have it, sucks for the rest of us. Last year I found by searching a few sites that had it on despite Apple's best efforts to prevent that, but it is a royal pain when you pay for Sportsnet and can't watch what you pay for.

MLB needs to fix this tv nonsense. Want to watch as much baseball as possible? Get mlb.tv. oh, you can't watch your team's games though. Get Sportsnet for that. Oh, and we'll also move some other games around during the season so you can't watch them.

Right now it seems they are trying to get to a NFL setup where MLB has ownership of all games for all teams. Some will be harder than others to get (Yankees & Dodgers won't want to give up local rights, nor will the Jays for example), but MLB can always use a very heavy hammer to force it if they need to. Still quite annoying - still, beats what I grew up with (I remember how big it was when TSN would have 40 Jays and 40 Expos games on during a season to go with 10-20 on CBC and CTV, plus no internet so no gamecast, stats were once a week in USA Today, minor league once a month in Baseball America).

Swanson has median nerve entrapment.

Will springbreakout game be televised? Would like to get a look at Yesavage and some other guys.

It’s on Sportsnet+ only

https://www.mlb.com/video/spring-breakout-twins-vs-blue-jays-prospects

free on mlb.com

Yep, my bad. It’s working on the mlb app

That was comically bad CF defense by Loperfido.

Yesavage looks extremely mature and polished for someone making his professional debut. Just struck out a side of Twins prospects (#7, #14, #21). He looks like he could move up the system very quickly...

Nimmala is looking good today. There is a debate as to whether he starts in Dunedin or Vancouver. Based on today's small sample, I would say Vancouver.

Fun game - Nimmela and Yesavage looking great out there, probably both starting 2025 in A+, but both could climb to AA quickly. Lots of guys hustling out there, legging out doubles from singles. Fun seeing guys play who I've only read name of in the minor league reports here. Lets hope a few earn shots by mid-season. Yesavage could be up by years end even - but I suspect the Jays will keep him in the minors unless absolutely necessary.

Bloss, Yesavage, Stephen, and Rojas are up to 7 IP, 8K, 0 BB, 5 H, 0 ER. Yesavage struck out side in his second inning. It looked like Bloss hit 98 on stadium gun and was dominant. Would be cool if they did a few of these games tbh. Like getting a look at guys who I otherwise wouldn't see.

The key for Yesavage will be throwing strikes with his fastball and trusting the cutter/slider enough to give hitters another look.

Kendry Rojas with easy 96-97 mph velo... nice slider, too.

Khal Stephan was underwhelming. Sitting 92-93 mph with meh secondaries. Not a good look for a second-rounder. Looks like a No. 5 type.

Bloss was good against much less advanced competition. Stuff not near the level of Yesavage/Rojas but he has well rounded secondaries.

Rojas hitting 97 from the left side, impressive.

Was Yesavage getting lots of swinging strikes?

Never understood or liked Stephen pick (you need 5th starters, but you don't need to draft them in 2nd round) but I really hope he can find another couple of miles or jays can work on his other stuff. Other starters all looked good though.

Was Yesavage getting lots of swinging strikes?"

6 whiffs.

https://youtu.be/xH69G_2cbk8

The condensed 11 min Spring Breakout game is available on the Mlb.com YT.

Not that it matters, but the Twins defense was atrocious.

Yesavage is really an over-the-top chucker. Not sure who he reminds me of. Joe Musgrove maybe?

The ugly Twins defense really shows why the Jays are so focused on it - that defense gave the Jays a few hits and extra baserunners through actual errors. I think we've been spoiled with Varsho, Kiermaier, Clement, and others the past few years. The Jays minor leaguers looked nearly ready for the majors while the Twins looked ready for A ball.

The interesting thing about Stephen is the movement on the fastball.
He's got no usable secondary pitch, but if he develop one average breaking ball, he becomes an interesting relief guy.
He sits around 92mph, but he's touched 96 here and there.

Looks like Varsho won't be DH-only which makes a lot more sense to me. Most likely scenario is short IL stint to begin season.

Today's lineup has all the starters in save clement. Orelvis is at 3B.

Roden in at CF.

Orelvis looked a little flat-footed on the sharp grounder in the first, but we didn't get the best shot of the play.

The funny thing about Stephen is that the Jays apparently liked him in college because of his ability to shoulder a strong workload (ie. Innings) but his repertoire very much suggests reliever. He was max 92-93 mph during the breakout game and his second best offering is a change. He reminds me of Deck McGuire.

Bloss was tops 95-96 mph on the legit gun... but it's kind of straight at that max speed. Orelvis just needs to move to LF or more likely 1B and prepare for Vladdy's departure. Mind you, the club may be showcasing him right now and he's more attractive as a 3B or 2B...

I'm really starting to worry Schneider is actually going to bat Gimenez 4th/5th during the regular season. At least George hasn't sniffed leadoff but 5th for him is also too high.

I think people are too hard on Bloss. I don't think he's an ace but he started last year in high A and when Jays got him, had pitched 15 innings above AA. He seems like a smart pitcher so think he has room to develop into a 3/4 starter.

Gimenez should be hitting 8 or 9. Hitting Roden or Wagner 1/2 makes lineup so much better. Pushes everyone down to a better spot.

I think the Jays were impressed by his performance in the Cape Cod League.
His era there was comparable to Manoah's.

Also, King, who was drafted 3rd, received a bigger bonus.

McGuire was drafted in 2010 and was pitching in AA the next year.
Stephen will obviously need several years to develop.

A quick reminder that lineup order has a minimal effect on scoring. This has been proven many, many, many times. I know back in university (around 1990) I put together a simulator on a tiny computer that had about 4 kb of memory (yes, KB, not MB or GB) and did full seasons, then wrote the results down (that much memory didn't hold much). The spread when using a leadoff hitter who was hitting like a pitcher vs Rickey Henderson was not that large (maybe 10 or so runs a year) if both were in the lineup either way. The spread for more sane things like Gimenez 4th vs 8th or Springer 5th vs 9th would probably result in no more than 10 runs over a full season, in fact I suspect closer to 3-5 runs at most.

Yeah, it is annoying to see Springer in the top 5, same with Gimenez. I suspect if Roden makes the team and so does Wagner that we'll see changes quickly. Reputation/seniority works for a bit, but eventually shifting will happen. Last year there just wasn't anyone to put in there instead of Springer, especially after his WOW month of July (274/343/505). June was his only other month with a 700+ OPS at 724. To really split it up - after the May 25th game he was at 188/264/273, May 26-July 21st he hit 279/364/545. July 22nd-the end 201/288/314. Ugh. So what to do with him? 2 horrid long stretches (combined around a 600 OPS), 1 WOW stretch (over 900 OPS). No rhyme or reason for the slumps or the peak from what I saw or anyone saw. The peak saw NYY, Boston, Baltimore, Houston, Detroit (none weaklings), plus Arizona, SFG, Seattle, Cleveland, 2 A's, Pittsburgh, and 3 ChiSox games. So not a ton of horrid teams (just 5 vs horrid teams in A's and ChiSox), the rest were teams that were contenders or who dreamed of being that ala the Jays.

I get why the Jays would still hope Springer has something - they owe him $48.3 mil still after all, plus that hot streak wasn't short enough to write off or just vs horrid teams. It isn't easy to know what to do with a guy like him who is near the end, but might have a solid year in him still while you are paying a lot to him. If anyone out there is willing to risk it and take on most of that salary then woohoo. I suspect with Roden in CF again today the Jays are probably going to put him in CF until Varsho is ready rather than use a no-bat guy like Straw (yeah, hot spring, but realistically no chance in regular season), and Loperfido has burned himself with a sub 600 OPS and scary looking defense out there (at least when I've watched games - only seen a few), and Clase isn't ready while Berroa was never really in the conversation I suspect (despite his 948 OPS this spring). Lukes I suspect will be up as the defensive replacement late in tight games vs a flyball hitting team.

Last ST game is March 23 opening day is 28th. The Jays will leave Dunedin maybe 24th with set rosters. AAA starts March 28th so their roster will also be set by the 25th.

Interesting to look at MLB.com stats. Their 'top prospects' leaders are waaaay off as their stats claim to be spring but have Roden at 875 for OPS which is far off his actual 1.428. So I went to the Jays stats and adjusted filters there to qualified rookies and get Robert Brooks at #1 (1 for 1 HR with a walk for a perfect 5000 OPS). For guys with 10+ AB's Alexander Vargas of the Yankees is #1 with a 1.957 OPS (wow). For 20+ AB's it is Matt Gorski of Pittsburgh at 1.530. 25+ AB's Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) at 1.500, tied with the Red Sox Trayce Thompson. But at this point I see major issues as I see Dalton Varsho and Matt Chapman on the list who clearly aren't qualified rookies with Roden inbetween them. Among players listed as qualified (30+ AB's it seems) just 7 have a 1000+ OPS, just 1 over 1200 (that Red Sox I mentioned).

The MLB stats are really messy - did multiple filters and got weird results (rookies doesn't count Roden, but qualified rookies does but that adds in odd stuff like Varsho). For team OPS the Jays are 7th right now, just behind the Red Sox and Yankees with the Rays at #10 while the O's are down at #21. By ERA the Jays are 17th, Yankees 6th, Rays 15th, O's dead last (6.52 ERA).

Starter Locks

* SS Bichette 27 R: 40pa, 5.0b%, 15.0k%, .367bip, .353avg, .243iso, 143wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 37pa, 5.4b%, 13.5k%, .345bip, .344avg, .171iso, 115wrc+
* LF Santander 30 S: 36pa, 13.9b%, 13.9k%, .292bip, .231avg, .133iso, 113wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 26pa, 11.5b%, 19.2k%, .286bip, .350avg, .682iso, 239wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 36pa, 11.1b%, 11.1k%, .370bip, .321avg, .129iso, 135wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 38pa, 10.5b%, 15.8k%, .308bip, .242avg, .167iso, 126wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 33pa, 0.0b%, 18.2k%, .500bip, .429avg, .258iso, 195wrc+
* RF Springer 35 R: 31pa, 19.4b%, 16.1k%, .167bip, .136avg, .043iso, 67wrc+

Bench Locks

* C Heineman 34 S: 19pa, 10.5b%, 10.5k%, .214bip, .200avg, .000iso, 48wrc+


Competition for the remaining 4 slots, in order of playing time this spring:

* UT Schneider 26 R: 33pa, 27.3b%, 27.3k%, .429bip, .333avg, .250iso, 172wrc+
* OF Lukes 30 L: 31pa, 19.4b%, 19.4k%, .235bip, .190avg, .167iso, 110wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 29pa, 0.0b%, 20.7k%, .318bip, .280avg, .143iso, 69wrc+
* OF Roden 25 L: 29pa, 20.7b%, 6.9k%, .375bip, .412avg, .421iso, 249wrc+

* IF Jimenez 24 R: 29pa, 17.2b%, 10.3k%, .200bip, .190avg, .087iso, 74wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 28pa, 3.6b%, 28.6k%, .500bip, .375avg, .185iso, 144wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 28pa, 10.7b%, 25.0k%, .222bip, .174avg, .160iso, 45wrc+
* UT Barger 25 L: 27pa, 7.4b%, 29.6k%, .467bip, .381avg, .333iso, 174wrc+

* OF Straw 30 R: 26pa, 3.8b%, 15.4k%, .500bip, .458avg, .208iso, 187wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 26pa, 7.7b%, 26.9k%, .438bip, .333avg, .167iso, 130wrc+
* IF Stefanic 29 R: 24pa, 16.7b%, 16.7k%, .400bip, .353avg, .000iso, 114wrc+
* OF Clase 23 S: 16pa, 12.5b%, 31.3k%, .111bip, .071avg, .071iso, -10wrc+

Lukes leading off and in CF today. The only two regulars in the lineup Kirk and Clement right behind him in the order.

Schneider at 2B today.

Barger jimenez loperfido berroa in the lineup fill out the bottom of the lineup.


No straw again. I'm thinking Lukes might be winning any battle for fill-in CF at the moment.



One more thing - i don't include any cut guys in the stats i just posted, even though some have more PA than Clase. But Rainer Nunez is in the lineup again today and has more PA than Clase and is kinda crushing it this spring so even though he's technically been cut already i'd say he's putting himself in a very good position going forward.

Berrios has been named the opening day starter. I find that weird that I thought Gausman was a shoo-in. Anyone else find this weird?

Not really. Gausman had a tough year in 24.
A healthy Schwerzer might have gotten the nod. 

Straw starting home game vs Yankees
Lukes starting away at Phillies

Berrios had the best pitching stats last year so it doesn't seem weird to me that he is the opening day starter.

Does Hector Gomez have any credibility ? He has reported that the Jays are making a new offer to Vlad in the 14-15 year range worth 550 to 600 million.

If the Jays offer Vlad a $550-$600 mil present day value deal to Vlad and he doesn't take it he is a fool imo. I'd believe a deal with overall value of that, but present day around $450 mil.

As to the battles - playing time and quality of opponent are the best indicators for us. Loperfido at 8.1 has the toughest, 7.5+ are Lukes, Schneider, Wagner, Jimenez & Barger, 7-7.4 are Roden & Stefanic, sub 7 means not seeing much above AA Clase, Orelvis & Straw. Think I covered all the contenders there. Clearly the Jays wanted Loperfido to run with it, but he tripped instead (head first into the CF wall as I recall).

Today, playing the A game vs the Yankees has to be seen as big for getting the most attention. Wagner (1B), Roden (LF), and Straw (CF) all in the starting lineup there.

ah poop mendocino didn't notice the split squad today.

so there goes my CF theory.

Sounds like Scherzer’s thumb injury is actually significant — could be the weak link in an otherwise healthy 40-year-old pitcher. It feels like there is a fair chance he doesn’t pitch a lot this year.

Based upon his last spring start does Scherzer go into the HOF with a Jays hat on?

Springer looking a LOT like last year - line drive into a double play, line drive out next PA. Hitting it hard but right at people.

Davis Schneider had a good game today with the bat and glove at 2b

Orelvis was hit by a pitch in the Philly game and immediately removed from the game. Details to follow....

Zach Pop being Zach Pop

I just noticed that it was Jordan Romano who hit Orelvis? Was it deliberate? Just kidding.

Scherzer not being healthy would be a huge blow. Francis is a massive regression candidate, and I think Yariel is better off in the pen. The depth beyond that is pretty slim. Hopefully they can squeeze about 15-20 starts out of Max in 2025. They will still need some capable depth behind him until hopefully Manoah is healthy mid-season (and even he isn't a lock to be effective once he comes back).

Any chance they could trade Springer for an equally overpaid SP?

Schneider said last year he was too focused on making contact and not doing damage and this year he's moving back. In a completely unrelated note, Mattingly has been moved away from helping with hitting.

Would be super cool if Schneider could get back on track. No reason he shouldn't be a solidly above average hitter.


A refresher on the lats 2yrs oF AAA performance:


* Schneider 24-25: 392pa, .309babip, 142wrc+
* Stefanic 27-28: 638pa, .396babip, 142wrc+
* Roden 23-24: 286pa, .345babip, 140wrc+
* Wagner 24-25: 383pa, .360babip, 137wrc+
* Lukes 28-29: 453pa, .389babip, 137wrc+
* Clement 27-28: 320pa, .338babip, 136wrc+
* Orelvis 21-22: 565pa, .310babip, 114wrc+
* Jimenez 22-23: 303pa, .287babip, 113wrc+
* Barger 23-24: 646pa, .304babip, 106wrc+
* Loperfido 24-25: 327pa, .322babip, 105wrc+
* Berroa 24-25: 354pa, .330babip, 105wrc+
* Clase 21-22: 426pa, .335babip, 97wrc+



Schneider, Roden, and Wagner are still the three clear-cut standouts here in terms of sustainable elite performance at a young enough age. I'd love it if all 3 made the team.

I saw that quote from Davis Schneider, and my first thought was Mattingly as well. Mattingly in 2024 might end up being what Game 2 of the 2022 Wild Card round was to this franchise; a huge catalyst for change. Hopefully we see some positive developments from it, especially with the younger players.

Orelvis update....he was hit in the hip and has a contusion/bruise.

They added Lovelady to the 40 roster. Is he in line for the bullpen over Pop and Nance?

MLBTR suggest there might have been an opt-out and added Lovelady to keep him around longer but doesn't mean he's made the team.

"Schneider said last year he was too focused on making contact"

Maybe I'm out to lunch on this, but the idea that if he was focused on power over contact would have amounted to better than a .191 Average is a bit suspect. I do however believe it's possible that trying to not be yourself could impact your ability to hit the ball.

Either way, sophomore slumps are pretty natural, and I am sure he will put up a better season (how good is the question, though).

I think you got it backwards, but yeah. His strike out percentage was about the same. The difference seems to be his line drive rate dipping from 30% to 22% in favour of ground balls. He pulled the ball a bit less.

I don't know what they are teaching but the idea has always been to take good hacks until you get to 2 strikes, then protect the plate and make contact.

Bloss was included in BA’s March 17 piece, “20 Standout Prospect Performances from Spring Breakout.” BA says his repertoire in his recent outing included “a four-seam fastball that sat 94-96 mph and touched 98 at peak, high-80s slider, upper-70s curveball and mid-80s changeup” and noted that he “kept hitters off balance with good stuff and command.”

They also listed Gunnar Hoglund as a standout pitcher. At the time of the Chapman trade (March 2022), I wrote: “The loss of Hoglund (as I predicted upthread) stings. Otherwise it's a reasonable package of prospects to ship out.”

Greenfrog you never miss a chance to remind us of your many comments that turn out true. How do you search past comments on topics from this site?

5gms left in ST. The homestretch.


Tonight's lineup may well be the opening day lineup, if Varsho still can't take the field:

* 1. SS Bichette
* 2. 1B Guerrero
* 3. LF Santander
* 4. DH Varsho
* 5. RF Springer
* 6. 2B Gimenez
* 7. C Kirk
* 8. 3B Clement
* 9. CF Lukes

Straw is not on the 40 roster.
Lovelady, Pop and Nance are all out of options.
Yarbrough is not on the 40 roster and is on a minor leagues contract.
Lauer is not on the 40 roster and out of options.
Nick Robertson, Josh Walker, Dillon Tate, Brandon Little and Easton Lucas are all on the 40 roster with  options.
Tate is a just a few days short of 5 years which would give him the option to refuse a minor leagues assignment.

Scherzer's thumb issue shows up around 50 pitches.
So far, his main issue is that pitching with a sore thumb could lead to a more serious injury.
Otherwise, he's just sore the next day.

If it's three years later, and now Baseball America is saying "his stuff looks good" but he's neither made the majors nor had a history of success in the minors... his loss does not, in fact, sting.

You'd have to think that probably just one of Lovelady, Pop and Nance make the opening day roster, and quite possibly none. So that will clear out two or three 40-man spots.

You'd think that either Straw or Roden could get added to the 40-man, but not both. Doesn't seem to me that the Jays are likely to face any difficult 40-man decisions.

Hoglund had a good 2024, posting 8.2 K and 2.55 BB per 9IP (119 K and 37 BB total) in AA and AAA at age 24.

He lost some development time to TJ surgery a few years ago.

The “sting” was in losing a decent pitching prospect at the time. He’s still an interesting prospect and it’s good to see him continuing to pursue his dream. Not sure why anyone would want to run him down at this point, but that’s the nature of the internet, I guess.

I won't quibble over Hoglund's 2024 - good luck to the fellow. But both your own raising the "sting" comment in the context of BA's positive evaluation and dalimon's asking about quotes that turned out to be true seemed to imply the assessment remained apposite.

I'm certain if we went through every time the Jays traded a pitching prospect we'd find very few ever reached the majors, and fewer still were of significant value (5+ WAR lifetime, normally I use 10 but for this I'd think few even reach 2).

A shame there isn't an easily downloaded trade transaction file somewhere (at least none exist that I know of). A trade file, and a draft file (plus IFA one) listing who/when/etc. That is what I dream of for making those ugly neverending tables I make now and then. My last one seems to have not drawn any interest, but I'll dream up of something more useful one of these days.

Interesting to note that Craig Kimbrel finally signed - a 1 year non-guaranteed deal with Atlanta for $2 mil if he makes the team. He will go to AAA to get ready. He has 440 saves (88% conversion rate) to go with his crazy 14.1 K/9 rate (still over 12/9 the past 2 years - his worst was 10.8 in 2022). Very nice value signing by AA - Atlanta was where he started his career so he probably has good memories of his time there - I suspect he wouldn't have signed that deal here.

Kind of surprised no one signed David Robertson yet - he has been a solid setup/closer for over a decade outside of 19/20. Heck, I'd love to see the Jays sign him. Yasmani Grandal is a solid choice for backup catcher but no one has signed him either (100 wRC+ lifetime, 95 last year. J.D. Martinez is still out there with some saying the Jays should sign him (I don't feel that way myself - I'd rather see the kids get a shot). Lots of others whose names are familiar - from Alex Verdugo to Whit Merrifield & Aledmys Díaz (remember him?).

dalimon5:

As you've probably found out, search capability on the site doesn't exist. But you can use Google:
site:battersbox.ca

Well, that reply didn't work. Truncated my comment. Try again:

dalimon5:

As you've probably found out, search capability on the site doesn't exist. But you can use Google:
site:battersbox.ca (then enter search terms, with or without quotes as you would a general Google search.)

For a user's comments, clicking on the username will bring up their 10 latest comments, and some statistics. To see more comments put username after the site search above.

greenfrog - that Chapman trade is pretty much 100% in the books now.

• Chapman as a Jay 8.0 bWAR over 2 years
• Lost to FA, picked Nick Mitchell with the pick gained who had a 816 OPS in A ball at age 20 last year).
• Traded away was Gunnar Hoglund (minors only - was sent down to AAA on the 10th)
• Zach Logue - 3 teams over 3 years in majors (negative bWAR for each), A's lost him on waivers after he was a -1.1 bWAR pitcher for them
• Kevin Smith - 2 years in Oakland, 0.1 bWAR, became a free agent and left for NYY, currently a FA.
• Kirby Snead - -0.7 bWAR for the A's, made into a free agent, off to Seattle, 10 1/3 IP, 0 WAR, again a FA.

Basically the only way the A's don't have this trade be a total disaster is if Hoglund can make a major improvement very, very soon (surprisingly this will be his first option used of 3).

If Mitchell develops then it becomes even more lopsided for the Jays (c'mon Mitchell!). The A's didn't even save much cash - for those 2 very good years Chapman only was paid $25 mil total by the Jays, or just shy of what SF will pay him in 2025-2030 every year. Dang, the Jays really did well there didn't they? Yeah, his first SF year was great (7.1 bWAR) but I wouldn't be shocked if the rest of the contract produces less than that 7.1 in total (he is entering his age 32 season - a notorious age for steep declines for players).

For those wondering (I was) - the post when Chapman was traded here is right here. Hoglund was the only one people seemed concerned about losing at all. A few didn't like getting him (looking at you scottt) while others loved it (uglyone, greenfrog). dalimon5 thought Pearson had lower upside than Hoglund (in the end neither has impressed) and would've preferred even Kirk going instead (but was happy to get Chapman). I called Oakland the Jays farm team (due to getting Donaldson, then Semien, then Chapman) and had been campaigning for the Jays to get Chapman for awhile then - nice that I got it right twice (Tulowitzki the other one I got right - where I said the Jays should get and did get in a trade - hey, give me this, I make 1001 wish trades so I'll take the 2 I got and just whistle quietly about the others).

"I think you got it backwards, but yeah."

Thank you for the correction scottt, I indeed wrote it backwards haha.

"If Mitchell develops then it becomes even more lopsided for the Jays (c'mon Mitchell!)."

@John - He was traded to Cleveland in the package for Gimenez btw.

Schwarber at 4/80 would've been an excellent signing by the Jays, he's been exactly what they needed.

There was a wide sentiment when he was drafted (and subsequently traded) that Hoglund would bounce right back from TJ surgery and be MLB-ready within a season or two. He may turn out to be a very good pitcher, but the trade can still be win-win because the Jays got Chapman when they were trying to win, and the A's got Hoglund because they like players who are cheap and don't have any specific plans to win baseball games.

Hoglund had 4 strikeouts in the 2 innings he threw in The A's breakout prospect game and was named to the breakout prospect all-star team, as was Jake Bloss and Trey Yesavage for the Jays.

The Jays got a 7 fWAR/8 bWAR out of Chapman over 2 years when they were high on the win curve and legitimate threats to compete for a World Series, which might be a bit clouded in hindsight given how both of those (post) seasons ended. It was a very good trade even if Hoglund ends up turning into a big leaguer.

With that said, the Jays do need to start getting some contribution from internal SP options. Francis was a nice surprise. Tiedemann (when healthy), Yesavage, and Bloss contributing would be nice.

Statistically speaking i can't find even one number that makes Hoglund look interesting. And unless something has changed significantly the scouting report doesn't seem to indicate a starter's repertoire.

Coincidentally, today BA posted an expanded writeup on Hogland (who I think would be a good player for the Blue Jays to acquire via trade). Here’s an excerpt:

It took some time for Hoglund’s velocity to return to pre-injury form. A healthy offseason in 2024 allowed Hoglund to take inventory of his arsenal and implement some changes to his pitch mix. He added a two-seam fastball, changed his slider to add more sweep and dabbled with a cutter.

Now, Hoglund has kicked his arsenal up another notch entering 2025.

So far this spring, Hoglund is sitting 93-96 mph on his four-seam fastball with plenty of ride, mixing in a two-seam variant at 93-94 mph. His secondaries have taken another step forward as his mid-to-high-80s changeup with nearly negative vertical break is his bread and butter. Hoglund is throwing a harder mid-80s sweeper and a slider with cutter like shape. This is the best version of Hoglund that we’ve seen as his arsenal continues to evolve and improve.

Blue Jays just signed Aiden Taggart, an unsigned Canadian prep pitcher out of Grimsby, ON who had been committed to the University of Utah. Aged 18, 6-4, 220 lbs... Fastball is 86-89 mph right now with a change, slider and curve. Long-term project.

I doubt the numbers will be significant, but I could see more of this Taggart stuff. I guess the more white people with proper visas get detained it might have international FA ramifications, but there will be bigger issues by then.

Fangraphs is doing a position by position leaderboard based on projected WAR.

• C: Jays 4th (O's 3rd) despite no real backup Kirk 422 PA, Heinemann 141 PA, Bethancourt 77 PA
• 1B: Jays #1 with a photo of Vlad there. Basically a big 3 then everyone else (Phillies & Dodgers). Vlad 602 PA (guess they don't expect a lot of DH/3B time for him), Wagner 56 PA, Santander 35 PA, Loperfido 7.
• 2B: 3rd place almost in a dead heat with Texas & Arizona. Slight drop then NYY & Rays, Reds, Cubs, and O's before a big drop for the rest. Giménez 630 PA, 5 guys with 14 PA each.
• SS: 12th place, behind KC/Baltimore who are far ahead of all others, just ahead of the NYY & Rays with Boston near the bottom. Bo 623 PA, Clement & Jimenez 35 each and 7 for Giménez.
• 3B: Jays 14th, but this is Cleveland by a mile in #1, then a lot of 'solid-OK'. Clement 273 PA-Orelvis 189, Wagner 140, 98 for others.

They haven't done the OF (Santander-Varsho-Springer and lots of playing time for Loperfido & Roden I suspect) or DH yet.

yeah if the BA report is right then finally a stuff upgrade might put Hoglund into starter's repertoire kind of stuff.

but it still seems pretty borderline - if his bread and butter is a high 80s changup then his fastball velo better get legit up into the high 90s to really make it work.

and the other "new" pitches have some pretty iffy descriptions there - supposed 2-seamers without any description as to movement, his slider now looks more like a cutter , and now he has a new "sweeper" (which is usually a slower spinnier version of a slider i think?).

before, his report just talked about his "slider" being his one potential plus pitch - i wonder if what his slider used to be is what is now being described as the sweeper, or the "slider that's more like a cutter".

FYI by fWAR the Jays were (in 2024) C: 9th; 1B: 2nd; 2B: 12th; SS: 21st; 3B: 17th, LF: 11th; CF: 19th; RF: 18th; DH: 12th; SP: 17th; RP: 30th (by over 2 WAR - ouch!).

The Blue Jays have so many position players floating around the minors. Wonder if they could flip two or three to Oakland in exchange for Hoglund. The team could use another controllable young SP in 2025 and beyond. Even if Hoglund is a #4-5 type who can throw around 150+ innings, that would have value for Toronto. And maybe he could be better than a #4.

I guess the more white people with proper visas get detained it might have international FA ramifications, but there will be bigger issues by then.

Not trying to start anything, but I don’t understand this statement about the young Canadian FA signing.

Is this some sort of commentary on the Jays, IFAs and the tariff war?

Or commentary on the sketchy nature of signing defectors out of Cuba?

Would the undrafted HS from Grimsby even count as an IFA against the Miles Straw money? Thinking about it further, wouldn't he be just like any other NDFA from the US?

I think this is the last offday of the spring, which i think is followed by four straight games and then we're done. I think.

So i'll get in one more off-day stats update before the end:


Starter Locks

* SS Bichette 27 R: 46pa, 8.7b%, 13.0k%, .344bip, .366avg, .366iso, 184wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 42pa, 7.1b%, 14.3k%, .344bip, .308avg, .154iso, 113wrc+
* LF Santander 30 S: 42pa, 16.7b%, 19.0k%, .280bip, .235avg, .118iso, 103wrc+
* RF Springer 35 R: 37pa, 18.9b%, 13.5k%, .130bip, .107avg, .036iso, 50wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 29pa, 10.3b%, 20.7k%, .250bip, .320avg, .600iso, 204wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 41pa, 9.8b%, 12.2k%, .323bip, .306avg, .111iso, 105wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 43pa, 9.3b%, 16.4k%, .300bip, .263avg, .237iso, 117wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 39pa, 0.0b%, 20.5k%, .464bip, .405avg, .216iso, 163wrc+

Bench Locks

* C Heineman 34 S: 22pa, 9.1b%, 13.6k%, .188bip, .167avg, .000iso, 26wrc+


Everyone is doing fine to great other than Springer, who better start hitting because i don't think they'll have much problem playing some of the guys below ahead of him. Oh and also Heineman can't hit but we know that.



Competition for the remaining 4 slots, in order of playing time this spring:

* OF Lukes 30 L: 38pa, 18.4b%, 21.1k%, .238bip, .200avg, .167iso, 102wrc+
* UT Schneider 26 R: 37pa, 24.3b%, 29.7k%, .467bip, .321avg, .321iso, 191wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 34pa, 5.9b%, 17.6k%, .280bip, .226avg, .129iso, 70wrc+
* OF Roden 25 L: 33pa, 18.2b%, 9.1k%, .368bip, .391avg, .348iso, 223wrc+

* IF Jimenez 24 R: 33pa, 18.2b%, 12.1k%, .227bip, .192avg, .077iso, 83wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 32pa, 12.5b%, 28.1k%, .263bip, .179avg, .179iso, 65wrc+
* UT Barger 25 L: 31pa, 9.7b%, 29.0k%, .471bip, .370avg, .296iso, 172wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 31pa, 3.2b%, 29.0k%, .450bip, .333avg, .167iso, 120wrc+

* OF Straw 30 R: 30pa, 6.7b%, 16.7k%, .500bip, .444avg, .185iso, 182wrc+
* IF Stefanic 29 R: 28pa, 14.3b%, 17.9k%, .389bip, .318avg, .000iso, 102wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 27pa, 7.4b%, 25.9k%, .438bip, .333avg, .167iso, 140wrc+


Lots of guys putting their best foot forward in this competition.

Roden the clear standout all-around here. Would be nice to see him rewarded. no guarantees of what happens with either player's performance this year but there's an obvious possibility that Roden over Springer could be a big upgrade in RF this year.

Schneider and Barger also having great springs, though in their cases there's still some concerning swing and miss going on, as well as super high babips driving the numbers. So not near-perfect lines like Roden's. But still great springs for both.

Wagner the big dissappointment so far (if anyone can really be a dissappointment in 34 spring PAs). Clearly getting lots of run by the team tho and still most likely to make the team.

Those 4 would likely be the highest-upside options to take up to toronto offensively, though of course none of them offer prime defensive cover so that might force the team to bring a guy who can more play a CF or SS instead of one or two of these guys.


Lukes so far getting the most run out of any of these borderline guys and doing exactly as expected - good D with a solid enough bat. I think he's their current choice if they need to keep a CF.

Jimenez and Loperfido obviously getting prime looks as well but both are struggling. Jimenez has the much better track record but SS defense is much less of a bench need than CF defense. Then again loperfido's defense is a big question mark too.

pretty funny that both Straw and Berroa are having great springs just to throw a couple wrenches in. Nobody wants Straw on the tam but he's having a better spring than most - though it's mostly a babip thing so i wouldn't get too excited and i doubt the team is being fooled there. Berroa is more interesting though as a cheap internal speed and defense CF - his track record is pretty decent at this point and he looks like a legit good depth option if CF continues to be a problem.


Maybe even funnier is that our "best" prospect Orelvis is actually having an awesome spring and nobody seems to have noticed. Ah well he should start in AAA anyways i guess.

You don't need prime defensive cover when both your 2B and 3B can play SS.

As I stated earlier this spring, both Schneider and Roden make sense for this roster even with Wagner on the team. If they do bring those guys north then the 4th OF should be Straw, just for pinch running and D.

If Varsho isn't ready they'll probably go with Lukes.

I don't know the entire ins-and-outs regarding IFA rules but Canada is not part of the world covered by IFA rules. They're covered under Domestic rules, as is Puerto Rico.

The only way Taggart signed as an IFA is if he has dual citizenship and was registered as a citizen of a foreign country long enough to appease MLB. It's happened a few times with US-born Dominican players moving back to the Dominican to skirt the domestic budgets.

Otherwise, he signed for $100,000 (draft max without pool penalties plus any of the few dollars leftover from the previous draft class).

Undrafted college or high school kids from the previous year's draft class can sign as UFAs up until the next draft... as long as they don't attend school. So Taggart would have been draft eligible in 2024, went undrafted and didn't follow through on his commitment to U of Utah (or deferred enrollment).

The Jays have signed a few free agents out of Canada... mostly out of Quebec with the most notable being catcher Nicolas Deschamps.

$150,000 now the max.

'06 Owen Gregg (Oakville) signed after draft last year.

College portal makes it tough on incoming freshmen.

Jays signed another big bodied pitcher, IFA RHP Jarlin Ugarte 6'4 220, will have a few in the DSL this year

When it comes down to it, I don't have any strong opinions about who should break camp. Assuming Wagner has a job, you can make a decent case for any of Roden, Straw, Lukes, Berroa, Schneider, Stefanic or Barger. None of those guys would be silly to put in Buffalo either. The only guys in the mix who I think should be in Buffalo are Loperfido and Orelvis. Orelvis because he's coming off the suspension, and Loperfido because he doesn't look like he's back on track yet.

To me any kids on the bench need to play if not everyday then at least in a platoon type role. Doubt the Jays would platoon Springer, but dang it has to be tempting right now to do that with him and Roden. Then you can put Wagner in the DH role as a mix/match with Schneider leaving only 1 bench slot as 'splinter city' which should be Lukes (so we have a backup CF). If they are determined to keep Springer as a full-time player despite his bad 2024, mediocre '23, and poor spring '25 then I'd only keep one of Roden or Wagner up while the other plays everyday in AAA as you'd have 2 slots at the end of the bench who would rarely play (ideal slot for Stefanic).

Unless the Jays are willing to put Springer into a part-time role or find a trade partner for him or release him (that'd be a major shocker with $50 mil left) I don't see how you can keep Roden and Wagner on the roster. Well, maybe if they put Roden in CF until Varsho is ready.

Maybe the take was about cancelling his US university commitment?
He still has to play in Florida, but he's playing for a Canadian team and can study in Canada.

The way things are, the Blue Jays crowds in cities like Seattle and Minneapolis will be tiny compared to previous years. 
Detroit is probably OK, but maybe not.
We shall see.

As to Straw - his numbers are suspect due to a high BABIP, but also due to his facing the lowest quality pitchers of any contender for a job in the majors. 6.5 (between A+ and AA level). The only other remote contender in the 6's is Clase. Everyone else is in the 7's (AA+) or 8 (Loperfido is the only Jays batter with an 8 level - or AAA level opposition on average).

I'd rotate Roden with Santander and Springer in the corners/DH.
Wagner can back up 3B/1B and would play less.  

The words from Spinger aren't very encouraging.
First he thinks he fixed something but it sure doesn't look like it.
Then he talks about working on the process, not the results.
That's not why he's getting paid 25M.

Wonder if the Blue Jays would keep Roden in the minors for a bit to secure an extra year of control over him. Maybe use Lukes, Loperfido or Straw in the meantime. Not saying I agree with that strategy, but it could be a factor in the front office’s decision-making.

Straw is 30. He was walking a bit more, 10% vs 9 or 8 when he was close to an average bat, but the strike out rate is the same and he's never hit homeruns.
So, babip will always factor in his results. That's the difference between hitting .221 and hitting .285.
I don't see any variations in his ground ball/line drive/ fly ball numbers.
He stole 30 bases in AAA last year and was only caught once, so I don't think he has slowed down either.

ah that's revealing John.

maybe even more about how it tells us what kind of pitchers the team is letting him face.

amount played against mlbers is a better indicator of who they're thinking of going with than just overall playng time.

The year of control thing is usually only for top prospects, especially high school players and international free agents who are younger.
Roden is 25. He'll be 31 in that "extra year of control". 

Agreed, but the Blue Jays system is a bit short on quality prospects. They might want to secure as many years of control as possible from their shortlist of good young players. And Roden’s age-31 season could be valuable — if he turns out to be a good MLB player (still a big if).

Anybody catch Vladdy's latest interview cementing his heel-turn? Apparently he says his floor is 500 million and with another good year he expects Soto money.

Won't be surprised to hear him booed quickly after his first slump.

Someone needs to have a talk with Vladdy about two things. 1) you can't say you don't want to be a distraction and then talk to media every second day about the contract. 2)he is wildly misreading his market. if he has another year like he had in 2023, I don't think he's breaking $250M. Fangraphs had zips do contract projections if he had an identical year in 2025 that he did in 2024, and even after that, his contract value was something like $450M. Someone woukd likely give him more but not by that much.

I'm not sure who helped Loperfido with his new batting stance but he appears to have poor balance, which is a terrible idea for someone with contact issues as it is... and he's really far away from the plate, although I think he may have moved a little closer recently.

I still see nothing there. Perhaps even less now than I did in 2024.

I doubt service time manipulation is the reasoning behind Roden possibly/likely not making the team out of spring training. At least I hope it’s not. Worrying about getting Roden’s age 31 season under team control instead of bringing the best talent to the Majors in a season they are trying to contend would be ridiculous. A 20 year old Vlad is the type of prospect you worry about service time.

My guess is the reasoning behind Roden not making it would be that he’s not on the 40 man roster, they don’t want him to be a regular DH, and the veterans (Santander/Springer) may have indicated that they want to play in the field more. Since Wagner doesn’t really have a position he plays well, they may not mind if he’s a utility bat that DH’s often. Roden’s playing time is probably intertwined with Springer’s place on the roster. If Springer looks washed in May/June, then maybe that’s when they pull the trigger.

With Pop suddenly stuck on the IL rather than getting DFA'd, that's one less 40-man roster spot to use, which hurts Roden/Straw.

Berroa is starting in CF today so hopefully he's in serious consideration for a roster spots. The few games are usually all about getting those breaking camp ready.

interesting change today:


* 1. 3B Wagner
* 2. 1B Guerrero
* 3. LF Santander
* 4. SS Bichette
* 5. 2B Gimenez
* 6. RF Springer
* 7. DH Varsho
* 8. C Kirk
* 9. 3B Clement


They sure seem to want to keep pushing springer down the lineup.

Bo does work better in the middle than at the top too, while Wagner if he hits to expectations is definitely more of a top lineup profile.

Swap Clement in for Berroa here and this could easily be a healthy starting lineup.

Shapiro with some actual candid comments this morning. That was unexpected/refreshing.

What did Shapiro say?

Yes please share.

https://x.com/ShiDavidi/status/1902738150205555104?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

as well

https://x.com/ShiDavidi/status/1902741924756304356

Other than having Gimenez bat 9th, that would be how I would set that lineup.

gotta be honest he has to know it's a meme by now so it's legit funny for him to lean into it.

gotta be honest he has to know it's a meme by now so it's legit funny for him to lean into it.

For those like me who avoid Twitter, Here is the Sportsnet version.

I wonder if incentives could be added in - ones like the Yankees had with A-Rod for reaching major milestones (need MLB permission for those) like 500 HR or 3000 hits, or more basic MVP ones.

.285/.421/.532 Soto
.288/.363/.500 Vladdy

Guerrero is receiving some very bad advice if he thinks his floor is 500MM and that he's in the same league as Soto right now. Soto hits like a HOFer, while Vladdy hits like an all-star. On June 19th, 2024 he was hitting .278/.365/.394 with 7 HRs. It's great that the Jays will have such a motivated hitter for this year, but he's making a big mistake if he forgets that only a few months ago some of baseball's biggest writers thought he wouldn't even clear 300MM. Hopefully he wins MVP and makes the Jays pay up.

Marc Hulet, why do we want Berroa to be in consideration for a roster spot? Is he faster and/or a better defender than Straw? I don't want that last roster spot getting starts anyway.

Francis looks very hittable.

I'm not sold on Wagner like others are, but I agree I like the lineup where Springer is batting 6th instead of pretending like he's a capable #4 hitter. If Wagner at the very least can sustain a high OBP, then he should be fine in the lead off spot even if additional power doesn't materialize.

interesting development:

https://x.com/Sportsnet/status/1902772363751559399

nice day for wagner. 2/2 with a double and a walk, and that nice play in the field. now carrying a solid .775ops in spring.


and as much as spring stats really don't matter, Mr.Springer is having such a dooze of a spring that he may actually be playing himself on to the bench, or at least to a very, very short leash. maybe a mystery DL stint at this rate tbh.

Respect FO comment on the Vladdy saga. Well played.

03/20/25 Toronto optioned LHP Josh Walker to Buffalo Bisons.
03/20/25 Toronto optioned RHP Jake Bloss to Buffalo Bisons.
03/20/25 Buffalo placed RHP Chad Dallas on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 Buffalo placed RHP Connor Cooke on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 New Hampshire placed RHP T.J. Brock on the full-season injured list.
03/20/25 Vancouver placed RHP Carson Pierce on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 Dunedin placed RHP Nolan Perry on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 Dunedin placed RHP Kelena Sauer on the 60-day injured list.

Asked Mark Shapiro about ticket sales going into the season.

Acknowledged single game tickets “have dipped” since last year, but April is traditionally a slow month. Fans will come to see winning product.

New Club 328 tix have sold out. There is a waitlist for premium seats.

— Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) March 20, 2025

No surprise the luxury seats are doing well. Seems those with money will always pay for premium stuff. Trick is finding ways to get the place over 3 million, tougher with just 40k seats roughly than it was with 50k. Need to average 37k a game to get there, thus a poor April makes 3 mil nearly impossible.

Agree with Ugly. Spring stats don't need much but man, Springer looks terrible. I don't think you give up on him yet but Jays can't have him playing like this and win and I'm not sure he can play any better. Hopefully, I'm wrong. Having Roden in RF makes the team much better.

Wagner looked good at 3B today. Not sure how he'd be full time but would be happy if he got some 3B VS RHP if it got another bat in the lineup. It gives the Jays another option for sure and their infield has some excellent flexibility and depth.

Watching Springer play is painful now. You can see how frustrated he is, he knows it wasn't that long ago he was a solid, even great, player. But now he just keeps hitting into double plays, watching strikes, etc. I'm sure the Jays check for this, but I can't help but wonder if his eyesight has issues and he needs glasses or contacts or laser surgery to keep at a ML level.

Hittable Francis is the best version.

The odd thing about Springer's spring is that his walk and strikeout rates are just fine - and those are the statistics that mean most in spring - but he's gotten absolutely nothing out of his balls in play.

And that's been the story of his decline over the past few years: his contact and swing decisions look pretty much the same, but the quality of contact has consistently declined. My impression is that's an unusual mode of decline.

Didn't see it mentioned, but Orelvis Martinez was Optioned to Minor League Camp with a slew of other guys with no chance of coming north.

Mildly surprising. That's a potential candidate out of the 3B rotation.

Orelvis isn't ready for majors and don't think he's an infielder either (except maybe 1B). He has a ton of stuff to work on. Clement, Wagner, Barger, and Vlad can all play 3B anyway. Would have been shocked had he made the team.

nice spring for Orelvis but for me yeah he should always have been starting in AAA this year. Let him legitimately crush that level before calling him up.

Toronto Blue Jays
@BlueJays
·
3h
ROSTER MOVES:

The following players have been reassigned to Minor League camp.

🔹 LHP Mason Fluharty
🔹 RHP Kevin Gowdy
🔹 RHP Hayden Juenger
🔹 C Matt Whatley

The following players have been optioned to Triple-A.

🔹 RHP Jake Bloss
🔹 OF Jonatan Clase
🔹 INF Orelvis Martinez
🔹 RHP Dillon Tate
🔹 LHP Josh Walker

Orelvis started off strong and then disappeared in the 2nd half of spring. His numbers are buoyed by that and misleading.

Fluharty is probably the most MLB-ready AAA reliever... but he has a 7th-inning ceiling... he lacks reliable weapons against RHHs that could be an issue at the MLB level.

If Varsho starts on the IL (and Wagner is at DH/3B/1B), my vote is Heineman/Betancourt, Schneider, Barger, Berroa with Straw starting in CF. BUT I think having to keep Pop and probably Nance means they don't have a clear guy to cut for Straw unless it's Robertson. Plus Straw impacts the budget and pushes them into a more dangerous penalty scenario. They also have to get Yarbrough on the 40-man. So then the other OF job goes to Lukes.

Wagner's play today convinced me he can handle 3B. He made some very nice plays. Sure handed, has just enough arm, and the only real question is the range when he has Bo (with questionable range himself) beside him.

Since Tate is on a split deal and has a minor league option remaining, he can be sent to Triple-A Buffalo without first needing to clear waivers — at least for the time being. He’s at 4.144 years of major league service, placing him just 28 days away from the five-year mark. Once players reach five years of MLB service time, they can’t be optioned without their consent.

MLBTR

Interesting that Tate still has an option left, making it easier to have him build up. At least for now.

Cuba and Venezuela will be on Trump's travel ban list. 
It's not clear if athletes on visa will be able to enter from Canada.

Varsho gets a rest today.

All the other starters are in.

With Lukes in CF and Barger in RF.

I'm getting fairly encouraged that they're going to be taking Lukes as the CF insurance.

There is nothing great about Lukes but he gives us at least a realisitic shot at getting some mlb average part-time performance, which is pretty unlikely from any of straw/berroa/loperfido even if they are better defensively.

Ugly, who do you see as the everyday CF while Varsho is still recovering? It would have to be one of those other 3 then, no? Or are you expecting Roden?

well i am hoping that lukes can be not-awful defensively, but i don't really know that i'm just hoping.


do you not think Lukes can handle it defensively?

or are you thinking it's a waste to have him hit vs lefties?

Roden, Lukes, and Loperfido are all lefty swingers... Berroa is switch and Straw is a righty... either of those two would give left/right CF options.

If you keep Roden, you essentially burn a 40-man spots needlessly if Varsho is back in 2-3 weeks because Roden would then go down to play every day.

Unless you cut Springer.

"Unless you cut Springer."


This is absolutely the correct solution to the roster crunch. Unfortunately in a world with guaranteed contracts, minor league options, front office ego (ex. they signed him), etc, a true meritocracy is not always realistic, but the Jays are a better team by cutting/trading Springer and replacing him with internal options, IMO. I guess there's still a chance that could happen, but it would be remote at best. More likely they'll see the home run he hit today as a sign that he's turning things around. I hope for the team's sake they are right.

I don’t like to psychoanalyze individual players, but it’s not a stretch to assume that cutting springer would be terrible for team morale. Just look at that reaction he got in the dugout after hitting the homer.

I’ve always thought Lukes a pretty perfect compliment to Springer. I don’t think we should be thinking of players as full or part-time only. Springer will get plenty of off days, they will pinch hit and pinch run for him, quite possibly defensive replacements.

Try to maximize what he still does reasonably well and give him a few more months. I can’t see them giving him regular status if he continues to struggle for a few months, and if we’re still in the race at that point, the players will come around to the move as well.

Popkins interviewed on the broadcast.

Popkins definitely speaks the new agey language of the Schneider Clubhouse. Not that that’s a bad thing, necessarily, since I think the players get to the bigs already fluent in that language.

Popkins compared Bob Bichette to Jon Jones of UFC infamy, and it was kind of a genius analogy if you know Jones style.

Speaking of the last spots on the roster, I don’t think there’s anything to worry about in terms of 40 man roster space. Guys like Lovelady either get hot at the right time or they get designated with the org hoping to keep them.

Similarly, I no longer think the FO sees value in keeping guys like Nance and Pop simply because they are out of options. I expect the FO will be aggressive cycling through those last few 40 man spots all season..

Barger sure looks the part of a big league power hitter. That homer was a bomb.

Springer still projects as a good hitter. He might be toast he might not be, but cutting him in spring training would be pretty rash. He was far from our worst performer last year.

In general, this Spring has gone about as well as you could hope for the Jays with the exception of Scherzer's injury and the bullpen. Unsurprisingly, much (not all) of the bullpen work has had an odoriferous aspect to it.

UO, if Springer starts the season hitting poorly (60-90 wRC+), how many PA would you give him before you relegate him to a bench role? Or would you give him a full season to try to turn it around?

Per MLBTR:

“Left-hander Ryan Yarbrough is going to trigger his upcoming opt-out in his minor league deal with the Blue Jays, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The team has until 1pm Central on Sunday to decide whether or not to add him to the roster. If they don’t give him a spot, he will become a free agent.”

Loperfido and Jimenez cut.

I was really worried to start spring that Loperfido would be kept up even though I couldn't think of one possible reason that would be a good idea, so this is good news.

Jimenez being cut kinda sucks because he's solid, but also the right call cuz there's just not room or need for him at the moment. He might be very good trade bait this year if he hits as i expect he will in AAA.

It would be foolish to write off Springer before he plays a single game this year. He had a monster month. He had a forgetful season. He is in decline. We're talking about Loperfido, Lukes and a prospect who's never played in the show before as his replacements. Give the guy a leash at least.

Are we summoning Bo to be cut before the season starts based on his 2024 season numbers? Springer is in decline for sure and should be cut back accordingly, not cut from the team.

If you're going from spring stats then pinch yourself and whisper "Gabriel Gross"

greenfrog - i get the feeling that playing time in the 3B/DH/OF slots will be pretty evenly shared with the bench guys. I could be wrong but I really don't think they'll feel obligated to play Springer every day.

I see jer said something similar about springer's playing time - i agree.

Scherzer going on the road for the start tommorrow. Target is 60-65 pitches. fingers crossed.

Looks like there's 8 guys left for the last 4 slots. Unless my count is wrong.


Wagner, Schneider, Barger, Roden, Lukes, Straw, Berroa, Stefanic.

Wagner is probably still an automatic, especially his spring line looks pretty solid now.

Schneider, Barger, and Roden have all put their best foot forward and have just hammered the ball this spring.

but all of lukes straw stefanic berroa have been solid too and provide some valuable defense.

I guess the risk with Springer has to do with his track record and brand (and contract). Let’s say he has an 85 wRC+ in June. The team may be tempted to keep playing him because he’s “George Springer” and maybe he’ll get hot soon and carry the team. Whereas a young player like Schneider or Barger with the same level of performance might not get the same rope.

The fact that the Jays haven't just stuck Springer in the leadoff spot bodes well I think. They should give him playing time but he shouldn't be guaranteed it and if is terrible, they need to not play him.

Honestly, I think the whole team would appreciate a thoughtful Schneider-type approach to Springer's playing time.  You want to put your young guys in positions to succeed, but you also want to put your vets in situations to decline gracefully.  If the team can manage this respectfully, that goes a long way to the 'culture' everyone likes talking about this time of year. 

To me, it does seem a good team 'culture', and Popkins certainly seems to fit the vibe. 

Buck and Dan spent several minutes today explaining why what I had just written about Lovelady in my last post was wrong, so just disregard that bit. 

Everyone was talking up Wagner and Roden on the broadcast, Popkins was talking of them as a like-minded duo, informed, prepared, 'smart' players. 

That's a nice grouping of the candidates there Ugly, four legit prospects who will get real playing time, four journeymen fighting for depth jobs.  Assuming two from each group make the cut, I can see the case for each of Barger, Roden, Schneider and Wagner in the prospect group. 

Straw still feels destined for Buffalo given his contract, and the flexibility gained by stashing him there, so I still like my mid-spring predictions of Lukes and Stefanic, as the 'right kinda guys' for the end of the bench? 

It has been fun having actual roster battles to follow this year!

There are different approaches the Blue Jays could take. I think Keith Law recommended just benching Springer and starting Roden or Santander (I can’t remember which) in RF.

I think rotating Springer through the OF and DH, with a number of off-days, is also a reasonable approach in the short term. Just don’t wait too long to bench him if he’s toasty and performing badly.

I'm advocating for Springer to play regularly to start the season based on his total career and concussion injury. I'm advocating for a short leash. If he sucks after 2 weeks you cut his playing time. If he sucks after a month and still gets regular playing time at the bottom of the line up then that's a different story.

BA’s staff prediction for the AL East standings in 2025:

Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays

Seems like a fair prediction after the Yankees early injury issues (Cole, Gil, Schmidt, Stanton, others). I can see a path to the Blue Jays making the postseason, though (it would help if they get 5+ win seasons from Bo, Vladdy and Gimenez).

dalimon5 - There is a name I hadn't thought of in a long time - Gabe Gross. He was top 10 for Avg/OBP and BB% in 2003/AA with a 319/423/481 line then spent 3 years in AAA (ages 23-24-25) with a brief call-up at ages 24 and 25. -0.2 bWAR as a Jay, then traded with 2 others (Dave Bush & Zach Jackson) to Milwaukee for Lyle Overbay and Ty Taubenheim. 88 OPS+ lifetime 4.6 bWAR (had a good year in Milwaukee with a 118 OPS+ right after being traded). Now he is an assistant coach for Auburn in the NCAA-division 1. As a prospect he peaked as the Jays #2 prospect (BA) in 2002 (2 years before we started rookie rankings here). Sadly the Baseball Cube doesn't have spring stats for his Jay years, just his Milwaukee ones and beyond. Dug through a lot of sources (The Star's archives, Internet Archive, The NY Times archive, my old Jays media guides) but no sign of a spring for Gross that was 'wow'. It was a fun hunt though - Internet Archive has all kinds of old baseball books available for free to read.

Bichette is 27 coming off a down season due to multiple injuries. Springer is 35 coming off two straight healthy down years, and last season saw him play like he doesn’t belong in the league for 5 months (amazing July skewing his numbers). I don’t see the connection there. Springer is clearly on the downswing and you don’t want to put too much weight into career numbers when he’s at this stage in his career. If he has a dead cat bounce in him, then I’d love to see it, but it’s way more likely that he’s a below average hitter moving forward. I just don’t see the upside in keeping him when there’s a potentially better option in house with a high floor. If you want to start Roden and use Springer as a 4th OF, then I’m perfectly fine with that, but on this team Springer is most likely either a starter or not on the team at all, with no in between.

Yea, put me in the camp that doesn't have much faith in the 2025 Springer. I'd give him a short rope and the kids a way longer one.

My favorite Gabe Gross memory (from 20 years ago!): Tie-game on the road in Tampa, bottom of the 10th inning, winning run on 3rd with 1 out... and Gibby brings in Gross - the former Auburn QB - for Frank Catalanotto to play LF. Sure enough, the batter hits a fly ball to Gross who catches it and launches a missile to home to complete the double play, and the Jays go on to win the game. Perhaps the greatest mid-inning defensive substitution in franchise history....

Looking at The Baseball Cube - they have spring stats back to 2006 (at least for premium members, which I am). Looking back at guys with 30+ PA and top OPS for the Jays...

• 2006: Eric Hinske 310/408/810 - had an injury filled year but his highest OPS of his career at 866.
• 2007: Reed Johnson 438/449/750 - disaster season, 625 OPS after an 869 the year before.
• 2008: Aaron Hill 447/500/723 - just 55 G 685 OPS
• 2009: Jason Lane (32 yr old OF) 358/375/736 with 5 HR stayed in AAA Vegas all year, started to pitch the following season, by 2014 reached majors as a pitcher.
• ....jump ahead to recent years....
• 2021: Vlad 421/511/737 - yeah, we know what came next. Also Joshua Palacios hit 353/421/706 at age 25 and got just 13 ML games for that 493 OPS, still kicking but has yet to have a 700 OPS in the majors in any season.
• 2022: no one over 1000 OPS over 30+ PA.
• 2023: Rob Brantley 438/486/625, 46 AAA games, 751 OPS in Buffalo.
• 2024: Vlad 463/511/707, Springer 415/510/707 - 2 guys who had very different '24s despite similar springs.

So can we conclude anything from this? Just that spring stats mean very little. They are fun, but that's about it. Also of note: Horwitz had a horrid spring in '24 - 125/255/150 but was perfectly fine once called up.

Loperfido cut along with Jimenez - both going to Buffalo.

Yarbrough has triggered his opt. He'll have to be added to the 40 by 13:00 Sunday.

Pop will join Burr and Swanson on the IL once the season start

The final spot on the pen will depend on Scherzer.
If he goes on the IL, Rodriguez will move to the rotation.
If not, one of Nance or Lovelady will have to make way for Yarbrough.

In the broadcast yesterday, Buck was talking about Stefanic providing leadership in the infield at Buffalo.
There's a case for Schneider adding a right bat.  Wagner looked locked in at 3B/1B/DH. He made some nice plays at both ends.
I don't see Berroa making the team.

Varsho starting on IL which makes sense. Give those abs to Barger/Wagner/Schneider. Let Varsho recover.

"I just don’t see the upside in keeping him when there’s a potentially better option in house with a high floor."

I'm at the same point as everyone else, but after 1 month, not now. He deserves the chance to prove his value for the first month of the season before being cut or relegated. Cutting him before the season starts for a minor leaguer that may or may not struggle out of the gate is not a move I would make. There's also the dynamics of the team. Chances are high that the critics of Springer can apply the exact same logic to Gausman and Bassitt. Doesn't mean those guys should be cut if there was a "potentially better option" in the minors (not that there is in there cases, yet).

Springer is pretty much 0 value offensively but he offers more value defensively than pretty much all of the other options for the OF. Are you guys really ready to plug in Loperfido, Luke's or Barger every day in RF to start the season? The o ly realistic guy to me is Rosen. Fine. I think he will be better, but bring him up in May once Varsho is back.

It's easy to say, "cut Springer after a month if he's performing poorly." The problem is that a month isn't much of a sample size. Lots of good players have played horribly in April and proceeded to have excellent seasons.

I think Springer will be with the Blue Jays until at least the trade deadline. The question is, how much is he going to play over that stretch? I think it's a manageable situation as long as John Schneider doesn't fall into the trap of regularly starting a worse-but-experienced veteran ("because veteran") over a younger-but-better player.

Cutting Springer for a young player also feels unfair to the young player replacing him.  Certainly, if you think about the way teams in general value veterans (I was a willing-to-show-up track coach that disliked running track, I leaned hard on my 16-year old veterans), how this organization, specifically, speaks to values, how often the veteran players bring this up. 

It's a values debate, I think?  Human values are intangible, the projections and analytics approach just chooses to ignore what it can't quantify?  I get the debate - the team should prioritize winning or the team should prioritize team.  Reasonable people can disagree on this. 

Not to imply this about the discussion here anyway, it just reminded me of a book I recently finished, 'When McKinsey Comes to Town'.  There is chapter on Jeff Luhnow and the 'Enron Astros', the whole 'smartest guys in the room' thing, that really disturbed me.  The whole book is disturbing, McKinsey has backed bad people, but as a baseball fan, I was appalled by the default amorality of Luhnow and his team.  It gave me a different perspective on them trading for Osuna, that's for sure, and I am pro giving the tried and convicted a second chance.  I did not have a personal moral problem with the idea of trading FOR Osuna, but I was appalled by theirs. Plus, they are the first cheaters on this scale since the Black Sox, forever-gross in my eyes, although most involved seem to have payed no real price, unlike those poor dupes on the Sox.

Has anyone else read this chapter/book?  Certainly worth perusing at your local bookstore, whilst buying something else of course, if a depressing work of investigative journalism, about an evil corporation, isn't your cup of tea.

That's interesting Scottt, Buck talking about Stefanic as 'veteran leadership' for Buffalo.  I imagine that's what he is hearing in the locker room, and imagine Stefanic may have come into camp understanding this, with a promise of future playing time, 28th guy on the chart sort of thing.  The Lukes model.  Lukes came in with a similar broad skill set, a good emergency back up, lots of minor league experience, grinding overachievers perhaps?  There is value in attracting these types of players to the organization, even if they make no impact on the big league team, or have to wait a long time for a chance like Lukes. 

I predicted Stefanic makes the team, but this changes that.  Maybe they go with three 'prospects' and, say, Lukes? 

And of course, Varsho opens a spot.  Probably the right move for the team, as well as the player. 

Greenfrog your right that one month sample isn't a lot but it's enough for Springer since he had all of last year. That's all he gets in my books. One month good will support as a full time player in the bottom of the line up. If he bottoms out you start benching him in April. If he plays mediocre you start cutting him back 50%. If he does well, great!

Reports from Florida say that Davis Schneider and Tyler Heinemann have been told they made the team. There are comments that Alan Roden needs to play every day so he looks to be Buffalo bound.

Thanks, Gerry. Good that Schneider and Heinemann made the team.

Springer starting in RF and Roden in AAA represents the first decision point on this issue in 2025. There will be more. When does Roden get promoted? How much rope should Springer get?

The front office loves depth so they probably like the idea of Roden being able to step in in the event of injury. Conservative FO, as always.

Do the Jays let Straw's $6M salary push the club over the luxury tax level, just to plays semi-regularly until Varsho is back and then sit on the bench?

He's had a good spring, is the 2nd best defensive OF after Varsho and has a 91 mph average exit velo this spring... tied for sixth on the team - Barger at 100 mph and Vladdy/Bichette/Schneider at 94 mph, Kirky at 93 mph.

I'm sure the Jays don't want to do this, but I'd rather put Springer in Centre to get Roden /Barger regular abs than play Lukes regularly. Interesting decision re:Straw who deserves to make team but lots of complicated money decisions there. If they really want Straw maybe they can restructure his contract to pay it out over 5 years or something instead of 2. Win/win as Straw gets to play in majors and Jays don't have to worry about financial ramifications.

Sorry for the double post but it'll be a fun game to watch today with all the roster bubble players in the lineup... except Barger. Perhaps somewhat telling that Straw is in CF.

But also interesting to note that a few teams could use a CFer, like Houston, Detroit, Tampa Bay, A's, Washington...

The luxury tax threshold isn’t calculated until year end. Having Straw on the roster at the outset doesn’t push them over it. They traded for Straw’s $12m of salary. They must like him. The allocation money that came from Cleveland (that doesn’t carry forward and is almost impossible to spend) doesn’t explain why they acquired Straw. They must like Straw - I understand the cognitive dissonance - there’s no good reason for that but it must be true. Frankly, you should hope that they like him - otherwise they have blown $12m for nothing and that’s not a good look.

I realize this may be a JBJ-type situation (center fielder who can no longer hit), but could 30-year-old Straw actually be a modest rebound candidate this season, with excellent defense and enough hitting (say 80-100 wRC+)? If so, that could help the Blue Jays stay in contention in 2025.

If that was the case Nigel why would they be playing around with him? If he was just a trade for a $12m player then he'd be an automatic on the team, not a bubble guy, even if Varsho was healthy.

The "Roden needs to play every day" thing sounds a bit weird. He's 25yrs old not some young kid.

It’s also a bit weird that Atkins singled out Roden as a player he was super excited about this spring, Roden proceeded to have a massive ST, and Atkins rewarded him with a trip back to the minors.

The FO loves years of control, so perhaps Roden is only sent down for a short time?

It's Springer who needs to play every day.

Just a guess, but I think semi-regular play (with some recovery days and days where he’s a late-inning defensive replacement) might be best for Springer. He’s not as young as he once was, and he’s had a lot of injuries. Lightening his workload by 10-20% might make him a more valuable player this year, and this would free up some playing time for the up-and-coming prospects.

There's no years of control thing with Roden, the extra use would be when he's like 32. Roden deserves to play but the way the team is constructed, it makes some sense to me to have him down until Varsho can play CF. Barger also had a great spring and is already on 40-man so he should make it. With Barger and Roden on the team, where would the AB's come from? Starting once a week in RF, once a week at DH. Meh. Better have someone who can play CF well while Varsho is out. This is the difficulty Jays have in general. They are decent everywhere so it's hard to upgrade easily. My preferred option would still be to try to trade Bo if you could get decent value instead of losing him for nothing eoy, slide Gimenez to SS, Wagner/Clement to 2B, Santander to DH, Springer to mostly VS LH, and just start Roden/Barger almost everyday but I doubt Jays would do that. It does feel like they need to make a trade though. Just too many bodies. Jordan Montgomery for Springer might make sense if Arizona weren't already overloaded at OF.

If his FA isn’t delayed, Roden’s first year of free agency would be his age-31 year. That could be valuable to the Blue Jays. Lots of good players are still plenty good at that age. I could see the front office considering years of control as a factor in the roster composition decision, even if it isn’t the overriding factor.

Remember, we’re talking about a GM who touted “42 years of control!” obtained via the Aaron Sanchez trade.

The Twins' shaky, low rez camera is mildly vomit inducing.

Teams don't keep guys like Roden down for service time. I don't think I've even seen it done once ever. It's used sometimes for top prospects. That's it.

Eric Longenhagen with some interesting notes re Jays pitching in a chat. Says that Jays went too data heavy instead of looking at pitcher's bodies/athleticism. Also said Barriera looked great in his first bullpen back.

Glevin, sometimes you make categorical claims about something always/never being the case, but without any supporting data, reasoning, or quotations. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but I don’t find that style of argumentation persuasive.

For example — considering the issue from first principles, why wouldn’t a team take into account years of control in the case of someone like Roden? If there is financial value in retaining the extra year of control, and you can do so without significantly impacting the roster early in the season (because you have depth at the position), why not do it? That is just logical. Simply claiming that “teams never do this, conversation closed” is not a compelling argument.

Roden is the type of players they can sign to an extension with team options any time they want.

Long boring interview with a guy wearing a "Jesus won" t-shirt and a gold plated cross.
Next inning something about adventures on the water or something...
$324 for all home games? That's pretty cheap.

Once again, the manager calls for a hit and run against a pitcher who is struggling to throw strikes.
Boo!

Good game so far for Roden (2/2), Straw (2 BB) and Scherzer (4 IP, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K).

Scherzer could be a fantastic addition if he can keep injuries at bay enough to capably pitch 100-130 IP or so. Especially if he can be effective in October.

I am not sure how much study there has been on the sociology of major league clubhouses. Basically, seniority means a lot. every player wants to get to be a veteran and have the respect that comes with that.

Springer is a veteran and has the respect of the clubhouse. I would bet that most players on the roster expect Springer to bounce back and 100% of them want Springer to have the chance to play himself into form. Sitting Springer at this stage is likely to create unrest in the clubhouse. So the club will not move Springer into a part time role so Roden can play every day. That time might come later in the year but its not here now.

I am not saying this is right but it is what it is.

My god, are we actually talking about extensions for a guy who hasn't played a big league game yet? It's spring training.

Alan Roden is probably the next Kevin Barker. Can we please calm down?

The team made it through spring training mostly without injury, and now Swanson is throwing again. They're starting with a homestand, and not on a ridiculously long road trip, which I think is going to help them not get out the gate so slowly. And it's an afternoon home opener on opening day to boot, something they haven't had in twenty years.

The Yankee and Oriole injuries have changed the dynamic of the division race, and it doesn't seem far fetched the Jays could challenge for the division if Vlad and Bo have big seasons and the starting staff remains healthy. Sure seems lightyears away from how bleak things looked in December.

remember that Springer was better than much/most of the competition last year, and projects better than much/most of the competition this year still.

this isn't a charity case here.

it's probably best if you mentally throw out his contract in your mind and just treat him like a minimum salary player. the contract is sunk.


on another note, it's pretty hilarious that Straw is actually legit earning a spot with an amazing camp.

from BA 2024 draft review

Best Day Three Pick (Or NDFA): Righthander Jonathan Todd (15) has an elite pitching frame at 6-foot-6, 225 pounds with well-developed musculature, and the
Blue Jays are excited about his fastball/slider combination. Todd posted a 4.00 ERA over 36 innings out of the bullpen with Western Carolina last spring
and sits in the 92-95 mph range with a high-carry heater. He signed for just $5,000 in the 15th round.

Jays are Grapefruit League Champs!

banner time!

Roden is a much better prospect than Barker was back in the day. Here are some of their minor-league stats:

Barker minors career (1538 games): .272/.358/.481, 26:28 SB:CS, 742:1258 BB:K

Barker age-25 season (AA-AAA): .269/.358/.419, 0:2 SB:CS

Roden minors career (266 games): .298/.407/.453, 43:6 SB:CS, 149:152 BB:K

Roden age-24 season (AA-AAA): .293/.391/.475, 14:1 SB:CS

In summary, Roden walks more, strikes out less, hits for more power, and runs way better than Barker did.

There's not much differences between extensions and extra years of control.
Did anybody cared about Kevin Barker's years of control?

The Jays got Geminez and Straw because they got extended and Cleveland later regretted it.
They didn't get extended to keep them after their year of control, but to avoid paying more in arbitration.

Ryan Bass@Ry_Bass
#Rays ace Shane McClanahan just left this game accompanied by head trainer Joe Benge. Here’s video of his final pitch, showing some serious discomfort. He immediately signaled toward the dugout. Will update when I know more.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/rays-lhp-shane-mcclanahan-exits-game-with-apparent-arm-injury/

There is clearly an important difference between years of control and extensions. Years of control give the team optionality (as Warren Buffet puts it). Extensions bind the player and the team.

You can cherry pick examples of extensions that didn't work out for the team, as well as examples of ones that did work out. This doesn't prove anything.

The key thing is to improve your odds of success as an organization over the long-term, and to make individual decisions along the way that help you do this. Each decision will necessarily be context-specific.

uo - I really can’t figure out your pushback on the notion that the FO values Straw. You think they’ve eaten $12m of salary because…..? Cleveland has dirt on Shapiro? If they don’t like him but agreed to eat his salary then that would be a level of incompetence that you can’t seriously pin on this FO.

Greenfrog, the problem with trying to avoid playing an underperforming Springer and instead putting a "prospect," in his place is that there are only so many at bats to make that happen.

1) for Springer to be underperforming he's going to need 150 or so at bats.

2) replacement prospect can't get said at bats because other positions in line up are also filled with regulars and other similar "prospects"

3) Schneider can't make a mistake playing Springer over the other option, imho, unless Springer gets 150 at bats and sucks and then the prospect comes in to replace him and gets 150 at bats and is demonstrably better...that's June at the earliest

In short, I'm fine with leaving Springer out there in the bottom third with his above average defense and seeing if he can be valuable by May/June and provided the replacement fares better. I guess my point is that there is no point future-complaining about Springer getting too much playing time right now when there needs to be a month or two of games played to let the stats speak for themselves. I can already see him struggling in May with a post by you referencing one of the seeded posts you've done today so we can all be reminded that you told us so. I enjoy your posts so please don't take the wrong way but they also have a hint of "fear-mongering meets thinking aloud to them."

Options are totally different from years of control.
Players can't be optioned after 5 years in MLB.
That extra year of control is the 4th arbitration year in which an elite player makes more money than many teams care to pay.
That's about delaying free agency by one year.
Extended players can be traded or released. It's just money, as is the case with Shaw.

How much the Jays pay Roden doesn't not factor in the equation. The Jays are not the Rays.
It's really all about Springer--the largest contract in team history--and his role with the team.

Scottt, I was using optionality in the general sense, as in this AI definition:

“In the context of investing, when Warren Buffett uses the term ‘optionality,’ he means having the flexibility or freedom to choose different investment strategies or actions based on changing market conditions, without being forced into a specific course of action.”

I wasn’t referring to “option” in the sense of being able to option a player to the minors. I thought this was self-evident from my post, apologies if it wasn’t.

Glevin, sometimes you make categorical claims about something always/never being the case, but without any supporting data, reasoning, or quotations. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but I don’t find that style of argumentation persuasive."

How am I supposed to give examples of something that has never happened? I can't prove a negative. Keeping guys in the minors for an extra year is pretty rare in its own right, but it's always done with top top prospects who are young. I have never seen a 25 YO borderline top-100 guy kept down for service time reasons. If you have examples, please, happy to see them.

Whoever was pointing out the real world clubhouse ramifications of Springer is accurate. This isn't fantasy baseball. Guys have friends, are respected, etc... These things don't decide things for you, but it means you can't just treat people like numbers. Jays have to give Springer some AB's for a variety of reasons. If he struggles, you give him fewer abs, if he keeps struggling, you can move on. Cutting a well-liked veteran because he had a bad spring doesn't make any sense for anyone.

Also: the Blue Jays may not be the Rays, but that is not a reason to give up optionality (in the sense I mentioned) or financial resources unnecessarily. The more resources available in any given context, the more choices you have.

"that would be a level of incompetence that you can’t seriously pin on this FO."

Sounds like a dare.

There’s a good piece in The Athletic on Scherzer’s thumb. Basically he feels good otherwise and is pitching at a high level even with FB 91-94. But the thumb is a big question mark that will dictate how his season goes.

I liked this quote from Byron Buxton today:

“Even though the velo says it’s dropped, he hasn’t changed as far as who he is,” Buxton said. “And if you ask me, it seems to have gotten better. Ten out of 10 strikes and none of them was in the heart of the plate. None. Dot, dot, dot, dot — that was impressive.”

I tend to agree that you don't accept $11M of dead money in that scenario (for $2M in international money) without actually liking the player, and Straw is almost exactly the type of player this FO would target in a bench role. However, logically, adding Straw doesn't make sense. Him and Berroa are the same type of player, except Berroa is younger and already on the 40 man roster. Straw cannot refuse a minor league assignment, so they'd still have Straw in the org even if they don't bring him to Toronto. Berroa makes much more sense in this scenario. Unless the plan is to trade Berroa and use his 26 man spot on Straw, which would be inconsequential either way, but selfishly it's much easier to root for Berroa than Straw, and neither one is likely to be all that good anyway.

Hopefully they just stick Roden in CF for a month.

I felt that Roden, Barger and Loperfido were all trade candidates via showcasing this spring. Shapiro has talked about Kasevich, Yeasavage and Roden as part of a core, if that means anything.

The Guardians have signed Tanner Bibee to a five-year extension that buys out at least one FA year (club option for a sixth year). $48-68m total, depending on how it plays out. Seems like a solid move that is in the “sweet spot” for the ballclub and player.

I’m beating a dead horse here so my last post about Straw:)

I hope Straw makes the roster. I have zero idea why anyone would want Straw at that salary (I’d actually be surprised that he was currently a better player than Berroa) or to put him on a major league roster but I’d feel better if this FO feels like there is a useful player in Straw and they are putting that belief to the test by putting him on the roster. All other outcomes are utter incompetence.

A lot of good AL East starting pitchers being afflicted with injuries in the early going this year: Cole, Gil, Schmidt, Rodriguez, McLanahan, Bello. We’ll see if this gives the Blue Jays an opportunity to gain some traction in the race to make the postseason (of course, they have concerns about Scherzer’s thumb, so they’re not entirely free from SP health concerns).

Jays have signed Kirk to a 5 year, $58 million extension.

Love the extension. Good for both parties I think.

Huge thumbs up on the Kirk deal.

Woohoo to the Kirk extension. $58 mil for 5 years for a top quality catcher is a steal. $6 mil signing bonus, no deferred money. Covers up to and including his age 31 season so it is for the 5 years after this one, thus 4 years of free agency plus his final arbitration year. Excellent. Now get Varsho and Vlad signed and we'll all be very happy I suspect. Bo is a nice to have, but 2 young SS will be ready for 2026 (Jimenez, Kasevich) with a 3rd for 2027 or 2028 (Nimmala) depending how hard the Jays push him.

With no real catching prospects in the system this was a critical signing. Jacob Sharp looks nice but is in A+, barely out of college, and was a 17th round pick so odds are low on him. Robert Brooks was the only other catcher as young as or younger than Kirk in spring training and isn't much of a prospect (entering age 26 season and has yet to get to AAA, just 185 pro PA).

I say Varsho would be nice to sign as there aren't any other quality CF'ers in the system who have defense and offense. Vlad is an obvious one, Bo like I said is a luxury item they'd have to move somewhere at some point but where? His arm is a 3B arm, but Giménez is a WOW 2B who might move to SS so Bo could go to 2B but would that be ideal or would Bo accept it? I'd be shocked if Bo is here in 2026.

I wouldn’t be keen to extend Varsho. Almost the entirety of his value is tied to his defence. Age is undefeated as it relates to CF defence. Varsho is already past his likely prime.

Varsho is entering his age 28 season, Kiermaier, another guy known mainly for defense, played solidly through age 33 before collapse at 34. A deal for ages 29-32 plus this year would match the length of Kirk's and would end a year before KK collapsed. Seems an ideal time. I don't like signing guys past 32, but signing up to 32 is fine as long as you accept that last year might not work out, but odds are good it will be OK. It all depends on cost. Varsho is signed for $8.2 mil this year, Kirk $4.6 mil. Odds are Varsho would demand more than $58 mil, but not much more than $100 mil I suspect. Varsho is established as a 3-5 bWAR/2-4 fWAR player so if you could get him for 5/$100 mil that'd be a solid deal (starts after 2025 like Kirk's) - I'd hesitate about going further than that, but I suspect he'd go for it.

Vlad is obviously the big fish - $450 mil I'm good with for him, going to $500 mil is pushing it a bit far imo but I suspect the Jays will give in and do it, perhaps even this week. I'm betting they sit with Vlad and his agent in Toronto between Monday-Thursday to try to make it work.

FYI: Kiermaier had bWAR of 11.0/9.1 fWAR for 28-32, 87 OPS+ most value from defense of course. I think Varsho has more potential with his bat than KK did, but even without that he probably can match 10 WAR over those 5 years and avoid the Jays having a hole in CF filled with someone who can't handle it defensively or who hits like Straw does. I'd try to get him to sign for 5/$75 mil ($15 mil per year) but be ready for 5/$100 as a max.

Probably the three best defensive CF’s (Devon White, Andruw Jones and Mike Cameron) of the last 25 years were washed as significantly above average defenders by 31, 30 and 30 respectively. Varsho is almost 29. Betting on Varsho to give you much of anything 2-3 years from now is definitely possible but a poor bet.

Signing Kirk is a great decision. He's become an excellent defender and if he can even have a league average bat with that defense he's more than worth it. The ship needs its captain.

Unless Clase takes a big step forward, they probably should re-sign Varsho.

Also, don't know much about Schreck's arm or defense, but that throw in the 9th was crazy.

Credit to Mile Green, who recommended this type of extension for Kirk months ago.

Roden sure is forcing the Blue Jays hand, isn’t he? The conservative FO would love to have Roden come up in June or July in nice orderly way (after a prudent couple of months of seasoning in AAA), but Roden keeps kicking down the door and making the status quo uncomfortable.

At this point it feels like he should be on the team. He’s 25 and outclassing some of the other players in camp. He’ll probably end up in AAA, but it leaves a sour taste to reward mediocrity over merit.

* Mike Green

and

* a nice orderly way

The Kirk extension would push the Jays over the next tax level so now keeping Straw doesn't have the impact we thought it would (on the tax).

It looks like Kirk's deal starts next year, so it shouldn't affect the luxury tax threshold for 2025. (Though I'm not sure how signing bonuses are accounted for.)

That's a really good deal for the team. Kirk is a legit top defensive catcher and the statcast metrics suggest he could get back to what he was with the bat. If he does, this is a total steal.

The contract is not without risk for the Blue Jays, but I think it's a good deal for them. Nice to see Kirk being set for life financially, as well.

I believe for payroll tax purposes long term deals including signing bonuses take the full value of the contract and average it over the years so signing bonuses or larger dollar amounts later are averaged. So Kirk should count as 11.6 million a year or whatever (if it is 58 over 5).

Springer starting in CF today which is interesting. Would maybe be my preferred cf starter so Roden/Barger can play every day. I don't worry about the luxury tax stuff. Just too complicated so need to just assume the Jays know what they're doing.

Straw and Lukes both make the team. Barger sent down. Really don't get this. Barger played fantastically and has huge upside. Lukes is the definition of a fifth OF. Not going to get too worked up though as this will all change many times through the season and if someone earns a shot they'll get it.

On the other hand, Roden did make the team!

Really happy to see Roden on this team. He was singled out six weeks ago and absolutely delivered -- it would been a bad look to demote him after the way he has handled himself.
I believe it's been 23 years since we've had someone in the opening day lineup making their MLB debut -- and that guy won the Rookie of the Year (Eric Hinske).

Good to have Kirk signed long term. No long term deal for Kirk would make our FO a failure in my eyes.

Today is the last ST game. Thursday the 1st regular season game. I only see CWS as not competing in 2025. So 14 teams are in play for an 85-89 record which I define as competing. Good/bad luck and health will affect the record as will the 1 run W/L record (luck?). So I expect the Jays to grind the whole season which was hard on me in 2023. I handled 2024 quite well after I realized we were out. No point in being stressed. I expect a lot of stress in 2025 from the Jays BUT I am v excited by our minor league prospects.

Tanner Bibee was a 5th round, 2021 pick that turned out V well for Cleveland. We picked G Hoglund, Tiedemann, C Dallas and I Carter before Bibee was picked. I believe that Hoglund got a big signing bonus and Carter got $850,000 which was over slot. Don't know Bibee's signing bonus. These types of results bug me.

Straw and Roden have made the team, joining Wagner and Schneider.
They will need to clear 40 roster spots for Roden and Straw. 
Add another one for Yarbrough, most likely.

Some more changes are inbound.

Figured only 1 of Roden-Barger would make the team opening day.

The Angels and the A's are not really competitive.
The Angels won 63 games last year.
The A's won 69.

Bibee was a 5th round pick. All 30th teams passed on him multiple times.
The draft is like that.

Lukes and Straw will alternate at CF until Varsho is back.
There would have been no playing time for Barger.

Excited about the roster. Great to hear that Roden made the team. Straw too, weirdly. And Scherzer’s thumb is feeling good today. ST went about as well as it could for the Blue Jays this year. Looking forward to the season!

Yarbrough did not make the team, he is a free agent.

Man they actually made the right choices. That makes me happy.

Barger despite the great spring could really use more AAA time. Unlike Roden who's already crushed AAA and has an advanced approach.

Lukes for me has long deserved a bench spot.

And in the absence of varsho it's hard to argue that straw didn't earn a spot. I doubt he keeps hitting heading into the regular season but maybe we catch lightning in a bottle for a few weeks.

earlweaverfan - Sunday, March 23 2025 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#457616) #
Can anyone describe how capable our bullpen will be, especially once you get past Hoffman, Garcia, Green, Swanson and Rodriguez? In general, am I going to be moderately pleased, displeased or held in suspense? Does Swanson start the season with the team?

Would much rather have Roden up than Barger if I had to choose one or the other, so that was the right call. A bit disappointed that Straw made it over Berroa but I get it. You don’t absorb the type of money they did with Straw if you don’t think you can get value out of him. Let’s see if they are right. I am indifferent to Lukes but seems like he’s the most likely to go down to the minors once Varsho returns.

Again something has to give with the AAA roster. Way too many bodies down there. I think we might see a trade in the new few days.

Hard to argue with the position player choices. I don’t love cutting Yarbrough, particularly with Scherzer’s thumb issue. He’s the ideal mop/up, multi-inning, spot starter that every team can use. The pen looks to me like the weakest part of the roster by a wide margin.

Based on today's lineup looks like gimenez might get the first crack at cleanup.

But maybe more importantly it looks like springer has dropped below the catcher slot and is hitting 6th to start.

A bit disappointed that Straw made it over Berroa but I get it. You don’t absorb the type of money they did with Straw if you don’t think you can get value out of him"

I don't get this. Straw was way better than Berroa in spring and is an elite defender. Maybe he just deserved to make the team and it has nothing to do with Straw's salary.

So a good spring. No major injuries (maybe a small one for Scherzer, but he probably is there opening day anyways); Varsho not ready, but his bat is; guys hurt are Pop, Burr, and Swanson - nice to haves for the pen, but not critical.

Signing Kirk for 5 years is a Woohoo! at $58 mil - doesn't cover age 32 up, which is when most players collapse. Wilner thinks Varsho is next on the extension list (I hope he is right).

The pen is remade and looking like it is Hoffman-Green-Garcia-Sandlin for key moments, Lovelady-Little for LH situations, Nance-Rodriguez for the rest. Sandlin and Little are the only ones of those with options, making it hard to keep anyone else on the roster right now. Sad for Yarborough, but wouldn't be surprised if the Jays keep him in AAA on a new deal which has options for him to leave at any time if a ML team gives him a ML opportunity. This isn't locked in yet though.

Rotation exactly as expected - Berrios-Gausman-Bassitt-Francis-Scherzer with Yariel Rodriguez the #6 guy. Bloss the only other starter on the 40 man, everyone else has to prove themselves (Yesavage, many others) or get healthy (Manoah, Macko, Tiedemann, Dallas). Let's pray for health.

Lineup has no shocks - Kirk-Vlad-Giménez-Bo-Santander-Varsho when healthy-Springer-Wagner. CF for now is Straw/Lukes/Roden, maybe Springer in CF so Roden can be left in RF (ideal imo). Roden the only surprise there, but a spring line of 423/556/731 with a K% of 8.3% will turn heads.

Bench of Schneider-Heineman (plus whoever sits of the 3 headed CF) is not surprising either imo. I thought they'd not call up Straw to avoid possible luxury tax stuff but I guess that is secondary right now.

Agreed about Yarbrough. I would rather see him on the roster than one or two of the low-end bullpen arms.

I'm in the camp of not understanding Yarbrough getting cut in favor of someone like Lovelady given his usage down the stretch last year would fit this roster well. He looked good this spring and he seems to understand his new MLB role well.

Every other move makes sense.

I don't get the Yarbrough thing in the face of it but he also just isn't very good so maybe Jays just saw mode in other guys.

Straw was likely never in a “camp battle”.

Maybe it’s just spring optimism, but I think many commentators are underestimating the Blue Jays this year., maybe because of their off-season misses like Burnes and Sasaki. They aren’t seeing the strengths of the team and organization (including spending power) right now.

They ended up needing 5 of these guys due to varsho's injury.


* OF Lukes 30 L: 42pa, 16.7b%, 19.0k%, .240bip, .206avg, .147iso, .710ops, 95wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 42pa, 9.5b%, 14.3k%, .290bip, .243avg, .135iso, .712ops, 90wrc+
* UT Schneider 26 R: 38pa, 23.7b%, 28.9k%, .500bip, .345avg, .310iso, 1.155ops, 199wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 37pa, 2.7b%, 27.0k%, .360bip, .278avg, .139iso, .714ops, 82wrc+
* OF Roden 25 L: 36pa, 16.7b%, 8.3k%, .409bip, .423avg, .308iso, 1.286ops, 228wrc+
* UT Barger 25 L: 35pa, 11.4b%, 28.6k%, .444bip, .367avg, .367iso, 1.162ops, 189wrc+
* OF Straw 30 R: 35pa, 14.3b%, 14.3k%, .458bip, .414avg, .172iso, 1.072ops, 181wrc+
* IF Stefanic 29 R: 31pa, 12.9b%, 16.1k%, .333bip, .280avg, .000iso, .647ops, 81wrc+
* IF Jimenez 24 R: 34pa, 20.6b%, 11.8k%, .227bip, .192avg, .077iso, .651ops, 84wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 33pa, 12.1b%, 27.3k%, .300bip, .207avg, .207iso, .717ops, 66wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 28pa, 7.1b%, 25.0k%, .412bip, .320avg, .160iso, .873ops, 131wrc+


Lukes and Wagner didn't have awesome springs but were decent and have the track records to expect they will hit. Lukes can also field CF and is the only bubble CF that projects as a capable mlb hitter.

Roden and Schneider absolute crushed it this spring and have already crushed AAA before so no reason to send them down again.

Barger and to a lesser extent Orelvis both had very good springs but imo i always wanted both starting in AAA this year until they show they can legit dominate that level. They're the two guys on this list most in need of AAA time imo.

Straw hilariously clearly earned the Varsho injury replacement spot. He even improved as the spring went on and started to show patience and not just babip. Still unlikelu to hit this year but he earned a shot to start.

None of the other guys projected to be amongst the best here and none of them had good springs either to force the issue.

Good calls all around imo.

I have a hard time caring about the last couple names in the bullpen i just assume that the last few slots will end up being filled with fungible replacement peformance by a bunch of guys shuttling between mlb and aaa.

Per Sportsnet:

Roden, a 2022 third-round pick, is set to make his big league debut when he steps on the field for the first time in the regular season. The 25-year-old corner outfielder was on fire in the spring, slashing .423/.556/.731 with two home runs and six RBIs.

"It was the most emotion I'd seen out of him... with a big fist pump," Blue Jays manager John Schneider said about Roden's reaction.

"I was just excited, said Roden. "I said, 'Let's bleeping go,' just pumped."

Jacob Barnes and Richard Lovelady have made the team, per John Schneider. Looks like Tommy Nance will be DFA'ed to make room for Barnes.

Nance has not been good, He has a great curve but can't seem to throw it reliably.

Barnes hasn't been good either. 6.75 ERA in in the spring.
ERAs of 5.64 in 22, 5.93 in 23, 4.36 in 24. That's not very exciting in the pen.
He's mostly dropped his slider and threw 49% cutter, 47% 4-seamer, 4% slider last year.

Lovelady wasn't great this spring either. 6.48 ERA.
He had a 3.77 ERA with Tampa last year, so he can probably do better.

It seems like they signed Yarbrough hoping that he'll stick in AAA until they need him.
They'd rather have Lovelady for 1 inning outings.
They have Bloss if they need a starter.

The only guys in the pen with options are Little and Sandlin.
I don't expect Barnes to stick very long giving that.

They really could go with a very young AAA squad, other than at C.

* 2B Jimenez (24, RH)
* RF Barger (25, LH)
* DH Orelvis (23, RH)
* LF Schreck (24, LH)
* 1B Nunez (24, RH)
* 3B McAdoo (23, RH)
* SS Kasevich (24, RH)
* CF Clase (23, SH)
* C Bethancourt (34, RH)

* UT Bohrofen (23, LH)
* OF DevBrown (25, RH)
* IF Rivera (24, RH)
* C Sanchez (28, RH)


But obviously some of these guys are going to be pushed down to AA to make room for some of these guys:

* CF Straw (30, RH)
* 2B Stefanic (29, RH)
* RF Berroa (26, SH)
* LF Loperfido (26, LH)
* 1B Tirotta (26, RH)
* DH Robertson (27, LH)
* 3B Palmegiani (25, RH)



I wouldn't be shocked to see a kid like Clase go back down to AA to start.

Curious to see what relievers end up on waivers. Ottavino is the most interesting, so far. Obviously, he's 39, but still had strong peripherals last year.

A very different looking bullpen if Swanson and Burr are healthy.

Looking at that list UO, I think the for sures going to AA would be Bohrofen and Rivera. McAdoo very likely to start at AA, Schreck a toss-up but still thinking they'll start him in AA. Devonte Brown may be one who gets sent down to make room, especially with all the CF reps to split.

I don't like the Yarbrough cut. Perhaps they will try to sign Ottavino, Stripling or Dunning. I would prefer they cut Yarbrough who complimented this staff. Also would have liked to see a Barnes dropped for an Ottavino or Dunning.

“I don't get this. Straw was way better than Berroa in spring and is an elite defender. Maybe he just deserved to make the team and it has nothing to do with Straw's salary.”

Straw has been awful (legitimately awful) in the majors and minors for 3 years now. They made one of the most head scratching moves of the off season by acquiring him and eating up as much money of his contract as they did. It was 100% due to his salary. As mentioned before the Jays making that trade and then leaving Straw off the team would have looked borderline incompetent on their part. They wouldn’t Berroa will be lucky to carve out a big league career but he’s at least younger and coming off a good season in AAA, and Rogers just wrote a story about his struggle to there’s a better story there. The difference between Straw and Berroa is probably nothing, but Berroa is younger, was already on the 40 man roster, and was at least coming off a good season in AAA. This decision was purely based on the contracts.

Maybe they think they can fix Straw and turn him into a better offensive player, if that’s the case then I hope they are right, but looking at it realistically, as mentioned there was probably never a real battle for the 4th OF spot.

Excuse the last post, I pressed submit instead of preview so didn’t properly edit. You get the gist of it.

Last 2 years MLB / AAA:


* SS Bichette: MLB 937pa, 105wrc+ ----- AAA 20pa,156wrc+
* 1B Guerrero: MLB 1379pa, 142wrc+
* LF Santander: MLB 1321pa, 124wrc+
* DH Wagner: MLB 86pa, 125wrc+ ------- AAA 383pa, 138wrc+
* RF Springer: MLB 1295pa, 100wrc+
* 3B Clement: MLB 504pa, 99wrc+ -------- AAA 32pa, 136wrc+
* CF Varsho: MLB 1094pa, 92wrc+
* C Alejandro: MLB 808pa, 95wrc+
* 2B Gimenez: MLB 1249pa, 90wrc+

* UT Schneider: MLB 595pa, 103wrc+ --- AAA 392pa, 142wrc+
* OF Roden: MLB n/a --------------------- AAA 286pa, 140wrc+
* OF Lukes: MLB 122pa, 115wrc+ -------- AAA 453pa, 137wrc+
​* C Heineman: MLB 63pa, 91wrc+ ------- AAA 364pa, 96wrc+


Extras

* IF Jimenez: MLB 210pa, 102wrc+ ------ AAA 303pa, 113wrc+
* UT Orelvis: MLB 3pa, 92wrc+ ---------- AAA 565pa, 114wrc+
* OF Clase: MLB 66pa, 87wrc+ ---------- AAA 426pa, 97wrc+
* OF Berroa: MLB 45pa, 74wrc+ --------- AAA 354pa, 104wrc+
* OF Loperfido: MLB 262pa, 74wrc+ ---- AAA 327pa, 105wrc+
* UT Barger: MLB 225pa, 70wrc+ -------- AAA 646pa, 106wrc+
* C Bethancourt: MLB 479pa, 71wrc+ --- AAA 40pa, 15wrc+
* OF Straw: MLB 542pa, 68wrc+ --------- AAA 494pa, 72wrc+




Fangraphs combined Depth Chart Projections 2025:


* SS Bichette (27, RH): 117wrc+
* 1B Guerrero (26, RH): 152wrc+
* LF Santander (30, SH): 127wrc+
* 3B Wagner (26, LH): 117wrc+
* C Alejandro (26, RH): 115wrc+
* RF Roden (25, LH): 109wrc+
* 2B Gimenez (26, LH): 106wrc+
* DH Springer (35, RH): 108wrc+
* CF Varsho (28, LH): 103wrc+

* UT Schneider (26, RH): 107wrc+
* OF Lukes (30, LH): 107wwrc+
* IF Clement (29, RH): 99wrc+
* C Heineman (34, SH): 77wrc+


Extras:

* UT Barger (25, LH): 106wrc+
* IF Jimenez (24, RH): 103wrc+
* UT Orelvis (23, RH): 94wrc+
* OF Loperfido (26, LH): 91wrc+
* OF Clase (23, SH): 87wrc+
* OF Berroa (26, SH): 86wrc+
* C Bethancourt (35, RH): 86wrc+
* OF Straw (30, RH): 72wrc+

Kirk's deal is basically paying him what Christian Vasquez is getting.

I would have taken Barger over Schneider as I think the 3B/RF/DH options would be more useful than LF/DH (maybe 2B but that's a stretch at this point). The club could really use that left-handed power.

Barnes and Lovelady are super-weak options. The Schneider interview on the broadcast made it sound like it wasn't their option to walk away from Yarbrough. The pen is a big weak spot (I don't have much faith in Sandlin, either). The lack of optional arms and good options in AAA is worrisome.

It's going to be interesting to see how the Jays get Roden and Straw on the 40-man without a good player being subtracted... maybe Berroa? One or both of Robertson and Walker could also go. Or Burr to the 60-day?

Kasevich is injured (back stress reaction) so he won't be back for a while. Hitters is AAA will probably be:

Catchers: Bethancourt, A. Sanchez
Infield: R. Nunez, Palmegiani, Stefanic, Jimenez, O. Martinez, Turconi
Outfield: Barger, Berroa, Clase, Rpbertson, Loperfido

Whatley, P. Clark, Tirotta and Schreck are bubble guys.

Yarbrough wanting out makes more sense than the Jays cutting him. Yarbrough isn’t very good but he’s better than a couple of the guys that they’ve kept. The pen looks bad so here’s hoping that the aging starters can bounce back after a rough year last year.

If the starting rotation needs reinforcements in the second half of the season (or before then), who are the likely best internal options? Rodriguez? Bloss? Maybe Yesavage or Tiedemann?

* RHH (6): Guerrero, Bichette, Kirk, Springer, Clement, Schneider, (Straw)
* SWH (2): Santander, Heineman
* LHH (5): Wagner, Gimenez, Varsho, Roden, Lukes

i haven't paid any attention to the bullpen situation because in general i was pretty pleased with what we did with the top end of the pen in the offseasons and i don't really think the bottom of the bullpen makes a whole lotta difference in the end as long as the team doesn't stay wedded to any particularly bad players.

but let's take a look at what the projections think of the releivers at least:


Asterisk = injured


* Hoffman: 65gms, 1.0ip/gm, 2.97era, 3.11fip, 1.5awar, 1.5awar/65gms
* Rodriguez: 57gms, 1.7ip/gm, 3.99era, 4.07fip, 0.8awar, 0.9awar/65gms
* Garcia: 61gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.60era, 3.71fip, 0.5awar, 0.5awar/65gms
* Green: 63gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.94era, 4.12fip, 0.3awar, 0.3awar/65gms
* Lovelady: 56gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.75era, 3.79fip, 0.2war, 0.2awar/65gms
* Burr*: 44gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.55era, 3.66fip, 0.1awar, 0.2awar/65gms
* Sandlin: 60gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.98era, 4.27fip, 0.1awar, 0.1awar/65gms
* Little: 55gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.86era, 4.10fip, 0.0awar, 0.0awar/65gms
* Swanson*: 42gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.99era, 4.15fip, 0.0awar, 0.0awar/65gms
* Pop*: 35gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.27era, 4.29fip, 0.0awar, 0.0awar/65gms


* Walker: 32gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.91era, 4.02fip, 0.0awar, 0.0awar/65gms
* Robertson: 39gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.04era, 4.10fip, 0.0awar, 0.0awar/65gms
* Tate: 26gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.17era, 4.23fip, 0.0awar, 0.0awar/65gms
* Nance: 59gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.16era, 4.26fip, 0.0awar, 0.0awar/65gms
* Fluharty: 22gmsm, 1.0ip/gm, 4.14era, 4.30fip, 0.0awar, 0.0awar/65gms
* Lucas: 24gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.31era, 4.47fip, 0.0awar, 0.0awar/65gms
* Yarborough: 50gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.34era, 4.62fip, -0.1awar, -0.1awar/65gms
* Barnes: 52gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.60era, 4.55fip, -0.2awar, -0.2awar/65gms


Projections definitely don't think much of Barnes but they like Lovelady a good bit.

They also don't think much of Yarborough, and think we have a number of fungible replacement arms that could give us similar or better performance.

Of the injured guys the projections don't think a ton of Swanson or Pop. But they do like Burr. Do we have injury updates on these guys?


Projections don't have a strong preference at the bottom of the pen but they think the best 7 RP are likely to be Hoffman, Rodriguez, Garcia, Green, Lovelady, Burr, and Sandlin. With Little probably squeezing into the 8th slot.


They obviously see something in Barnes that they like but who knows what that is.

Greenfrog don't sleep on Manoah

It's really the same thing. Yarbrough could opt out if he was wasn't added to the 26 and the Jays figured that Rodriguez can handle the long relief and they like Lovelady better as a second lefty.

Well, the FO outperformed my expectations this off-season- the acquisitions of Gimenez and Scherzer, the Kirk extension and the Roden promotion all get big thumbs up from me. Fangraphs has them as right in the heat of the battle for a playoff spot and competitive for the division title, and I agree with that. Their position players are as good as anybody's. The pitching though is thin, and they will need to get lucky in avoiding pitching injuries to win. For this reason, the minor league player to watch is Trey Yesavage who may be needed by the second half. Enjoy the season, everyone.

Starting with 6 OF seems a bit excessive IMO. Just 5 IF - Wagner the only backup (3B/2B/1B) with Schneider also one at 2B/1B. Wouldn't be surprised if the Jays do a minor trade of one of Straw/Lukes/Schneider for a utility IF who can cover SS. Although I suspect they hope Barger (or Orelvis) can get better at 3B so they can call that guy up and put him at 3B full time and move Clement to a utility role. In fact I was expecting Barger to stick around and do just that (except part time with Clement at 3B). Once Varsho is back I suspect Lukes goes down, Straw stays as a backup OF, and the big question comes up with Roden vs Springer.

last year (min 10pa):


* CF: Varsho 320pa, 95wrc+ / Kiermaier 216pa, 54wrc+ / Loperfido 50pa, 8wrc+ / Clase 23pa, 186wrc+ / Lukes 14pa, 129wrc+
* RF: Springer 509pa, 96wrc+ / Barger 73pa, 44wrc+ / Biggio 38pa, 82wrc+ / Lukes 31pa, 52wrc+ / Berroa 31pa, 79wrc+
* LF: Schneider 295pa, 77wrc+ / Varsho 183pa, 106wrc+ / Loperfido 93pa, 83wrc+ / Lukes 44pa, 134wrc+ / Barger 25pa, 28wrc+ / Berroa 12pa, 51wrc+
* 3B: Clement 277pa, 89wrc+ / Falefa 126pa, 99wrc+ / Barger 115pa, 93wrc+ / Guerrero 50pa, 187wrc+ / Santos 29pa, 44wrc+ / Turner 19pa, 189wrc+
* SS: Bichette 336pa, 71wrc+ / Clement 149pa, 93wrc+ / Jimenez 136pa, 125wrc+ / Falefa 48pa, 140wrc+
* 2B: Horwitz 151pa, 119wrc+ / Schneider 143pa, 99wrc+ / Falefa 102pa, 136wrc+ / Biggio 83pa, 98wrc+ / Wagner 79pa, 128wrc+ / Jimenez 72pa, 53wrc+ / Clement 11pa, 102wrc+
* 1B: Guerrero 518pa, 172wrc+ / Horwitz 145pa, 115wrc+ / Turner 44pa, 79wrc+
* DH: Turner 278pa, 114wrc+ / Guerrero 128pa, 129wrc+ / Springer 96pa, 99wrc+ / Horwitz 75pa, 154wrc+ / Vogelbach 68pa, 65wrc+ / Kirk 21pa, 211wrc+ / Jansen 13pa, 123wrc+
* C: Kirk 358pa, 88wrc+ / Jansen 210pa, 97wrc+ / Serven 70pa, 40wrc+ / Heineman 13pa, 45wrc+

Adding to what Mike Green said, I thought the acquisition of Anthony Santander was important as a big bat to give Vlad protection in the lineup,

Despite the usual optimism as opening day approaches, I think the expiring contracts of Bichette and Guerrero will hang over the club all season. If the present situation is the same at the trade deadline, what will happen? If the club is still in contention, will the Jays let both players finish out the season and lose them for nothing? Will both be more interested in padding personal stats than team wins? ( I don't think so)

the way I see positional coverage this year:


* CF: 1.Varsho, 2.Lukes, 3.Springer, (4.Straw)
* RF: 1.Springer, 2.Roden, 3.Santander, (4.Barger)
* LF: 1.Santander, 2.Roden, 3.Schneider, (4.Barger)
* 3B: 1.Clement, 2.Wagner, 3.Guerrero, (4.Barger)
* SS: 1.Bichette, 2.Clement, 3.Gimenez, (4.Jimenez)
* 2B: 1.Gimenez, 2.Wagner, 3.Schneider, (4.Jimenez)
* 1B: 1.Guerrero, 2.Wagner, 3.Santander, (4. Barger)
* DH: 1.Wagner, 2.Schneider, 3.Guerrero, (4. Barger)

I'm optimistic, as usual, that this will be a breakthrough year for the Jays. Much more fun to think about what can go right than what can go wrong. Vlad & Bo both have big incentives to be 100% this year. Kirk is locked in for years now thus can focus on health (critical for catchers) and not worry as much if he slumps. Clement knows he needs to prove himself still. Santander & Giménez both have long term deals, but are new to the Jays thus will want to give good impressions year one. These are all very good things.

Guys one last year of contract: Bo, Vlad, Bassitt, Scherzer, Green, Swanson - all have an obvious reason to be 100% focused on playing well. Green might get annoyed if not given many closing opportunities.

2 years left: Springer, Gausman, Varsho, Garcia - no real pressure in any direction with these guys beyond 'stay healthy, play decently'.

Guys in arbitration for 26/27: Manoah, Clement, Sandlin, Lovelady, Pop, Burr, Nance, Heineman, Francis, Schneider - these guys are on pay for performance annually, hoping to do well enough to get offered a long term deal or in some cases to get guaranteed a roster slot for '26.

Long term deals: Berrios (can opt out post '26 or stay until '28), Yariel Rodriguez (through 2027, with a $6 mil player option or $10 mil team option for '28), Straw (signed through '26, 27/28 team options for $7/$8 mil or buyouts of $1.75 for 27, or $500k for 28).

Everyone else on pre-arb or 1 year minor league/small ML deals. Phew. Jays $27.4 mil over the tax threshold which puts them into tier 2. $6.4 mil expected taxes to pay. Note: Straw is a $6.3 mil hit, so he didn't push them over a threshold but did make it harder to get back under one.

I feel much better about this team than I did last year at this time. As mentioned, SP health is going to be very important, and they’ll need an unexpected bullpen breakout to happen, but I think it’s a team that could contend for a Wild Card spot.

Screw wild card - division title! NYY missing their ace and lost Soto (down 1.9+7.9 WAR) also traded Nestor Cortes (2.6) for reliever Devin Williams (1.4) so that is 11 wins gone with nothing to replace it. Getting Max Fried (3.5), Goldschmidt (1.3), and Bellinger (2.2) helps but doesn't cover it all (7 vs 11 still a 4 win loss) and given their ages/recent performances Goldschmidt and Bellinger are not locks to repeat what they did. Plus one can't forget injuries to Luis Gil, DJ LeMahieu, Clarke Schmidt, and Giancarlo Stanton. Baltimore had a bad spring (sub 500) and didn't add a lot in the offseason (Tyler O'Neill, Charlie Morton, Andrew Kittredge is about it - Kittredge is the only one I'd like from that group but at $10 mil might not provide value). Mix in injuries to Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Bradish (TJ), Grayson Rodriguez, and Andrew Kittredge and they could be in for a rough start at least.

We will see how this all works out, but I do like the Jays odds when their 2 key rivals are having issues. Fingers crossed the Jays stay healthy - one of the most important things in sports.

Our starters are aged 40, 36, 34, 31, 28, soo we are not only hoping for good health, but staving off further regression. I do expect significant improvement offensively, with a lot of breakout potential and a ton of ability to get on base against righties. I still feel we're a team that would struggle in the playoffs with our current rotation, but anything can happen if you just get in. And I think we could get in - as a wild card team at best, most likely.

Another season of prospect watching begins. Despite the poor farm rankings due to the lack of top 100 guys, I see a lot of interesting names to watch.

In AAA you have Martinez, Jimenez, Barger, Clase and Kasevich are close, and one of Jimenez or Kasevich could become the starting SS next year. Could Nunez finally break out?

In AA (most likely) you'll have Rojas, Estrada, and Jennings. Longenhagen really likes Grant Rogers too. For hitters we have Bohrofen, Schreck, McAdoo as the three most interesting.

In A/A+, you'll have Yesavage, Stephen, Holcombe, JWB and Fernando Perez. Curious to see a full season from Parker, Keys, Victor Arias, and a healthy season from Pinto. Nimmala if they're a bit more aggressive. Micheletti is a sleeper who reminds me a lot of Roden and could be our next underrated breakout.

*remove the "aggressive" assignment for Nimmala (originally had A+ and A separate)

Micheletti Jr. is a guy I've seen a handful of times now that I just can't get excited about. Roden... I saw him play a couple times in Dunedin during his draft year and bought in right away. I don't see much of a comparison. Michelleti is more of a power guy with a bad-ish body and low athleticism although it looks like he's in a little better shape this year. Doesn't have anywhere near the athleticism or natural feel for the barrel that Roden does.

Grant Rogers is another player I don't see much in... Right-hander who tops.out 90-91 mph with the fastball and next best pitch is a changeup. Soft and softer despite standing 6-7.

Kendry Rojas, though, is criminally under-hyped. He, along with relievers Estrada, Tolhurt, and maybe Pardinho are the most interesting AA arms.

How about Tiedeman, Manoah, Barriera and Maroudis. That's a big amount of upside arms in a system that has none.

I'd take Pardinho over Barnes any day.

Thanks Marc. I wasn't impressed looking at Rogers' statcast data last year either, so I was surprised to see Longenhagen give him a shoutout.

Fangraphs is close to wrapping up their position wrappings. Only SP remaining. Here's where we're at:

C - 4th
1B - 1st
2B - 3rd
3B - 14th
SS - 12th
LF - 11th
CF - 16th
RF - 15th
DH - 13th
RP - 19th

My lord, I need to proof-read.

I will chime in with agreement that the Kirk extension is a great move for the Jays. I'd love to know if anyone has done a comparison of the aging curve for catchers as opposed to other position players - it's received wisdom that catchers sometimes take longer to develop, of course. Kirk doesn't quite fit into that prototype since he came up young, but I still wonder if catchers are better extension candidates due to a gentler aging curve.

I think the story of this roster is that there's lots of depth on the position player side (apart from catcher) and not much on the pitching side. If some of the younger guys show well this year - Wagner, Barger, Roden, Jimenez, Schneider, et al, the Jays could have some nice trade chips come July.