I was disappointed to see Straw getting the start in CF today and then i saw Orelvis at 3B even though we know he's not making the team so no biggie really.


More interesting maybe is that Varsho is slotted in between Santander and Springer in the 4 hole, meaning Springer is bumped down another notch.

They continue to use Gimenez ahead of Kirk which does make some sense but also condemns Kirk to the bottom of the order....if Kirk gets back to hitting closer to what he used to it's gonna be hard to keep Gimrnez in front of him despite the DP thing. A good hitting Kirk would slot in the 4 hole.

I am not sure how dialed in Keegan Matheson is to the Jays FO/management, but he seems to believe that the 26-man roster on Opening Day will include both Barger and Loperfido. Given their ages and the glut of players in AAA as it is, I think I'd be fine with that even though I'd prefer Roden in there. That still leaves a bit of a glut in AAA, but a little less so. That would leave a AAA outfield of Roden, Clase, and Berroa/Straw/Lukes, and infield of Martinez, Jimenez, Kasevich, and Nunez, with Stefanic in there somewhere. Although I would still be surprised if we don't see a trade, even if it's minor, by the end of Spring Training.

of all the options they have, taking Loperfido and Barger seems likely to be the worst.

Varsho has really demolished some balls this spring.

That was a bomb for Varsho.  
Great pitching by some key relievers ... I've always viewed Garcia as a middle-reliever who could pitch in the late innings, but he looks tough to hit right now. 

Are they thinking Lucas might have a role down the road as an opener?  Not sure why he alone of the relievers keeps starting games otherwise.
Roden looks more 'ready' to me than Barger, unless they like Barger more for the ability to play some 3B?  Loperfido feels like the guy they might have liked going into spring, and he does seem to be toolsy, but I sure don't see him as a good choice for the bigs based on this spring.  I'd put Straw or Schneider ahead of Loperfido, and like John Northey said in the other thread, I think Lukes and Stefanic (too a lesser extent) are the likely choices to sit at the end of the bunch.
Internal evaluations of D remain the wildcard in my mind - do they see Lukes or Loperfido as legit CF?  Can Barger play some third to allow for late game moves?

That was a nice bunt by Stefanic, even if they got their signs mixed, and Bethancourt with two missiles to catch baserunners.  He is starting to feel like the third catcher.  

I'd stick to Varsho behind Santander until he stops hitting.
For pitchers with splits, you get 2 left bats in a row and it's not a great spot to bring in a lefty, Santander switches, Varsho can be pinched for.

Most of the AAA starters are behind; Kloff, Bash, etc...
Lazaro Estrada has looked pretty decent but he's heading to AA.
So is Jennings.
Bloss has shown an uptick or almost 2mph on the fastball. He could be interesting if he throws enough strikes.

Roden should definitely make it, but for whatever reason it looks likely that he starts in AAA, so the options beyond him and Martinez (who also looks like he will start in AAA) are interchangeable to me. Just take the ones with the highest potential upside. Barger actually has some upside even though he may not reach it (bat speed, exit velo) and Loperfido (while I wouldn't bet on him being anything at the big league level) has more upside than Berroa, Lukes, Straw, etc. The Jays need to get lucky with player development, and a lot of the AAA prospects are getting long in the tooth where they need to get some type of opportunity even if it's on the bench.

The Rays have cancelled their plan to build a new arena.
I could see insurance costs becoming a problem going forward.

Those Bauxites that are interested in Brent Rooker, here is his history & profile. A high draft pick in 2017 from college. His bat is his calling card. He K'd a lot in the minors and majors. A minor trade landed him in KC who lost faith and DFA'd him. Oakland claimed him and he provided great power in LF 2023 & 24. He is doing a J Bautista career path. Turned 30 years old in Nov.

There are plenty of minor league players that are similar with huge power, K a lot and have weak D. I suppose every org has a few of this type of prospect.

I really don't care who makes it at this point. There is no rhyme or reason guys have good springs or bad springs outside of the fact they could be injured. You can't read anything into it; you can cite so many cases of guys looking great in spring or looking terrible in spring, then they go out and have a great April. In fact, somewhere there are papers and case studies of spring training stats meaning very very little. Same with spring training batting orders and final roster spots. It makes for great fodder when spring training is so long and covered so closely, but the bottom line is health.
The only bad news this spring (and yes, this includes the Guerrero saga) is that a key bullpen piece (Swanson) has been replaced with a huge question mark (Tate) and that Scherzer has a thumb issue. I'd say that's a decent spring. I put absolutely no stock in the fact some Jays are having good spring trainings. There is a much greater chance Alan Roden is the next Simon Pond than Kyle Schwarber.

I'd love to go back to the days where the odd spring training game was on TV in mid March just to re-establish contact with the team, and a few games on radio just to hear the sounds of baseball.

Geez this turned into a crotchedy style argument, but I am really over this month and a half long fluff.

I'd love to go back to the days where the odd spring training game was on TV in mid March just to re-establish contact with the team, and a few games on radio just to hear the sounds of baseball.

It is nice to see some of the more unheralded prospects during garbage time of the second half of ST games. Particularly for those like myself that don't follow the minors.

Now that expanded Sept rosters aren't a thing anymore, there's fewer opportunities to see guys in the system.

If only to actually see what they look like and confirm that they do in fact exist. Particularly the RJ Schrek, Jacob Sharp, Eddison Paulino types acquired at the deadline in the firesale.

I love watching those spring game. It's just as entertaining as watching the games in July.
Yeah, they don't count towards the season, so what.
Some people only watch hockey once the playoffs start.

I think the spring games are a good indicator of April production. I don't think they mean anything with respect to performance in July or August.
Many hitters are still looking for their timing in April. If they can't square the ball in March, they might not be able to do it in April either.
A reliever who can throw 97+mph has a better chance of overpowering a hitter in April than in July. Especially if he mixes in a good breaking ball.

I don't think Tate will be ready by opening day. He's probably going to ramp up in AAA.
He signed a dual contract.

Roden is not the same type of player as Schwarber. The most interesting thing about Roden are his numbers at AAA last year.
The GM went out and challenged him at the start of camp and he has an OPS of 1.482 with 5 walks and 1 strike out.
He has a large burn on his chin from hitting the fence shagging balls.
Schwarber is a career .230 hitter who led the National League in strike outs in 22 and 23.

I don't mind if they gamble with Straw.
He's the best defender they have in CF.
He's hitting .476.
If he has a good March, they could probably flip him if they eat a good chunk of his salary.
He's also the type of guys they like to have on the bench. A defensive replacement who can pinch run.

but most of the games have been on tv no?

The Jays just signed Freigher Braco. 19 year old RHP for the DSL2 team.

They released Christopher Castro FSL LHP. I liked him.

A Nimmala had an exit Velo of about 106mph on a triple last year. 19 years old, 6'1" 170lbs. He will get bigger and stronger. I hope he gets to Vancouver soon next year.

Castro last pitched 2 shutout innings for Dunedin Sept 5th. So maybe not injured. I liked his stuff but his results were just OK.

F Braco is from Venezuela not Cuba. I don't know how much money he would get. IMO 19 year old Cubans would get more money, but I don't know.

Cubans cannot be signed out of Cuba. They usually get more money because they have enough experience to be signed to MLB contracts.

Adding to what pooks137 said about seeing players that you only recognize by their names, there was a Jay's player named Jay Harry who hit a home run on Sunday. He was totally unfamiliar to me but I see he was the return when the Jays traded Trevor Richards to the Twins last season.

Also, Will Robertson, who is a familiar name, cranked a home run to centerfield which is 414 feet.

get my IFA stuff from this guy

https://x.com/bkfan09

90% Mets stuff but get drips about other teams

metZZ 1986®️@bkfan09 · Mar 11
Yankees have $10M-$11M tied up in two players in the 2030 class

https://x.com/FAN590/status/1900595264513093915

Schneider on the bench spots: "There's still some battles going on there... there's probably three to four guys fighting for two spots."


which sounds like he's already got 2 slots selected (i.e. one starter and one bench slot), and i'm not sure who those two would be.

he seems to indicate Varsho is still a possibility to be ready to field by opening day.

Varsho's health will have a LOT to do with the opening day roster. Seems the Jays don't feel confident about Roden in CF even for a week (2 games in CF all spring), a bit more confident with Lukes & Berroa (4 games each), Straw they are very confident in (9 games), and Loperfido (6 games). Non contenders were Shreck (2), Clase (4), Brown (4), and Arias (2). Loperfido has faced the toughest opponents (8.1), then Berroa (7.4), Roden (7.3), Lukes (7.2), ... , Straw (6.6 - A+/AA level). So Straws stats are very much of the 'don't believe it for a second' level. Don't be shocked if the Jays trade him for peanuts before spring is over to someone thinking he found some magic. I see it as Loperfido if healthy and Varsho not 100%, Roden if Varsho is 100%. Last spot is Lukes I suspect (the guy would get into maybe a game a week, running for the catcher late, maybe).

So DH is Varsho or Roden, with Wagner also in the mix along with Schneider. Loperfido or Roden on the roster, but not both. Bench infielder (who will get splinters in his butt from sitting so much) I'm still betting on Stefanic as I don't see anyone else the Jays would be OK with having sit most games. Hard to see where the battles are that Schneider is talking about. Wagner-Schneider-Stefanic-Lukes the most likely bench with Roden trying to grab a shot over Wagner at DH. Loperfido wanting that CF job until Varsho is 100% but isn't doing enough to win it (608 OPS vs 8.1 quality), Straw has hit amazing (1.145 OPS) but against weak pitching. Barger might be pushing his way into the argument for DH/backup with his 1.149 OPS vs 7.5 quality though (hadn't noticed how much better he is doing after a slow start).

The more I dig the more I see battles. That is a very good thing. Right now cases can be made for Barger (1149)-Roden (1482)-Wagner (670 but damn good 2024)-Schneider (1240) for the DH slot (plus backup 1B/LF/RF/3B depending on player). Barger actually fits the desired profile best with his RF/3B time (covers for Santander and could be a bat at 3B when needed, shifting Clement to SS if Bo needs a day off, has a dozen games at 1B in the minors). I suspect Schneider is a lock (only RH bat) and one of Barger-Roden-Wagner gets the other slot (LH) with the 2 guys I mentioned earlier for the far end of the bench. If Varsho has to DH then the LH kid DH doesn't get a shot yet, but Loperfido does in CF.

Backup catcher was to be a battle, but Heineman has been solid (625 OPS, solid D), Bethancourt the #1 contender behind Heineman but 174 OPS kills that. The others have seen very weak pitchers (6.5 or less) and done poorly (3 hits over 23 AB's) so they'll all be in the minors with Heineman likely to be there all of 2025 unless he gets hurt.

If you assume Varsho is starting in CF and Wagner is the DH, then the bench is probably Schneider, the backup catcher, the 4th OF, and then one more. I know there seems to be conflicting reports about Straw and his impact on the CBT, but the Jays are paying him $11M over the next two years regardless, so if he actually looks like he's capable of filling a bench role, then he might be the guy they end up going with. The last spot is a little harder to identify. Ideally they start Roden at DH and use Wagner in a utility role as he can cover multiple positions (2B/3B/1B) and none of them well enough to start there, so he's practically a utility player anyway. However if they intend to start him at DH, then the last spot becomes a bit tricky. Barger might be a good bet as he's already on the 40 man roster, and can cover two positions (3B/RF). Won't be Jimenez as he only covers 2B/SS, and Martinez is still too good/young of a prospect to use in a bench role.

5 hopefuls in the lineup today.

1B Wagner and DH Schneider at the top of the lineup.

LF Loperfido CF Lukes SS Jimenez at the bottom.

Caught some of the Jays in 30 last night.

Bethancourt looked good in the highlights throwing out two runners.

Heineman likely has the backup job but Christian looked good throwing at least.

Even if Varsho isn't ready to field on opening day, I think he'll make the team given how he's been hitting. He's hitting the ball really hard on a consistent basis, and the club can't afford to leave him off, especially with other teams like NYY and BOS dealing with injuries.

Assuming no injuries, this is what I think the Jays will do (not what I would do):
Catchers: Kirk and Heineman
Infield: Guerrero Jr., Gimenez, Bichette, Clement, Barger, Schneider
Outfield: Santander, Loperfido, Springer, Lukes
DH: Varsho
SP: Berrios, Gausman, Bassitt, Scherzer, Francis
RP: Hoffman, Green, Garcia, Little, Sandlin, Yarbrough, Rodriguez, Pop/Nance

*Add Wagner if Varsho is on the IL to start the year

I see Wagner playing 1B when Vlad is the DH. Not Barger or Schneider.

CF is a race between Loperfido and Straw. I haven't seen Loperfido hit in a Jays uniform.

Well this is embarrassing for management.

“They asked me to oversee the hitting last year and that didn’t go great.. so they kinda push me back.. to the bench, defensive, base-running role again." - Don Mattingly on Blair & Barker

I think Wagner is close to a lock on the team. Hit very well last year in minors and majors and can backup a bunch if spots and is best option for DH. Think Schneider, Loperfido, Barger, Lukes, Straw, and Roden are fighting for three spots. Think it will be Schneider, Barger and probably Loperfido.

If Loperfido can get his bat going, I think I've seen mention that he's quite a strong defender at 1B. The problem is that you don't want him there until his offence is in the same range as Wagner's.

Is Eric Lauder pitching his way onto the radar? He has looked good, and still only 29.

For fun I just read that the Jays 2nd game (first night game) will be on 'bleck' Apple TV. Nice for the handful who have it, sucks for the rest of us. Last year I found by searching a few sites that had it on despite Apple's best efforts to prevent that, but it is a royal pain when you pay for Sportsnet and can't watch what you pay for.

MLB needs to fix this tv nonsense. Want to watch as much baseball as possible? Get mlb.tv. oh, you can't watch your team's games though. Get Sportsnet for that. Oh, and we'll also move some other games around during the season so you can't watch them.

Right now it seems they are trying to get to a NFL setup where MLB has ownership of all games for all teams. Some will be harder than others to get (Yankees & Dodgers won't want to give up local rights, nor will the Jays for example), but MLB can always use a very heavy hammer to force it if they need to. Still quite annoying - still, beats what I grew up with (I remember how big it was when TSN would have 40 Jays and 40 Expos games on during a season to go with 10-20 on CBC and CTV, plus no internet so no gamecast, stats were once a week in USA Today, minor league once a month in Baseball America).

Swanson has median nerve entrapment.

Will springbreakout game be televised? Would like to get a look at Yesavage and some other guys.

It’s on Sportsnet+ only

https://www.mlb.com/video/spring-breakout-twins-vs-blue-jays-prospects

free on mlb.com

Yep, my bad. It’s working on the mlb app

That was comically bad CF defense by Loperfido.

Yesavage looks extremely mature and polished for someone making his professional debut. Just struck out a side of Twins prospects (#7, #14, #21). He looks like he could move up the system very quickly...

Nimmala is looking good today. There is a debate as to whether he starts in Dunedin or Vancouver. Based on today's small sample, I would say Vancouver.

Fun game - Nimmela and Yesavage looking great out there, probably both starting 2025 in A+, but both could climb to AA quickly. Lots of guys hustling out there, legging out doubles from singles. Fun seeing guys play who I've only read name of in the minor league reports here. Lets hope a few earn shots by mid-season. Yesavage could be up by years end even - but I suspect the Jays will keep him in the minors unless absolutely necessary.

Bloss, Yesavage, Stephen, and Rojas are up to 7 IP, 8K, 0 BB, 5 H, 0 ER. Yesavage struck out side in his second inning. It looked like Bloss hit 98 on stadium gun and was dominant. Would be cool if they did a few of these games tbh. Like getting a look at guys who I otherwise wouldn't see.

The key for Yesavage will be throwing strikes with his fastball and trusting the cutter/slider enough to give hitters another look.

Kendry Rojas with easy 96-97 mph velo... nice slider, too.

Khal Stephan was underwhelming. Sitting 92-93 mph with meh secondaries. Not a good look for a second-rounder. Looks like a No. 5 type.

Bloss was good against much less advanced competition. Stuff not near the level of Yesavage/Rojas but he has well rounded secondaries.

Rojas hitting 97 from the left side, impressive.

Was Yesavage getting lots of swinging strikes?

Never understood or liked Stephen pick (you need 5th starters, but you don't need to draft them in 2nd round) but I really hope he can find another couple of miles or jays can work on his other stuff. Other starters all looked good though.

Was Yesavage getting lots of swinging strikes?"

6 whiffs.

https://youtu.be/xH69G_2cbk8

The condensed 11 min Spring Breakout game is available on the Mlb.com YT.

Not that it matters, but the Twins defense was atrocious.

Yesavage is really an over-the-top chucker. Not sure who he reminds me of. Joe Musgrove maybe?

The ugly Twins defense really shows why the Jays are so focused on it - that defense gave the Jays a few hits and extra baserunners through actual errors. I think we've been spoiled with Varsho, Kiermaier, Clement, and others the past few years. The Jays minor leaguers looked nearly ready for the majors while the Twins looked ready for A ball.

The interesting thing about Stephen is the movement on the fastball.
He's got no usable secondary pitch, but if he develop one average breaking ball, he becomes an interesting relief guy.
He sits around 92mph, but he's touched 96 here and there.

Looks like Varsho won't be DH-only which makes a lot more sense to me. Most likely scenario is short IL stint to begin season.

Today's lineup has all the starters in save clement. Orelvis is at 3B.

Roden in at CF.

Orelvis looked a little flat-footed on the sharp grounder in the first, but we didn't get the best shot of the play.

The funny thing about Stephen is that the Jays apparently liked him in college because of his ability to shoulder a strong workload (ie. Innings) but his repertoire very much suggests reliever. He was max 92-93 mph during the breakout game and his second best offering is a change. He reminds me of Deck McGuire.

Bloss was tops 95-96 mph on the legit gun... but it's kind of straight at that max speed. Orelvis just needs to move to LF or more likely 1B and prepare for Vladdy's departure. Mind you, the club may be showcasing him right now and he's more attractive as a 3B or 2B...

I'm really starting to worry Schneider is actually going to bat Gimenez 4th/5th during the regular season. At least George hasn't sniffed leadoff but 5th for him is also too high.

I think people are too hard on Bloss. I don't think he's an ace but he started last year in high A and when Jays got him, had pitched 15 innings above AA. He seems like a smart pitcher so think he has room to develop into a 3/4 starter.

Gimenez should be hitting 8 or 9. Hitting Roden or Wagner 1/2 makes lineup so much better. Pushes everyone down to a better spot.

I think the Jays were impressed by his performance in the Cape Cod League.
His era there was comparable to Manoah's.

Also, King, who was drafted 3rd, received a bigger bonus.

McGuire was drafted in 2010 and was pitching in AA the next year.
Stephen will obviously need several years to develop.

A quick reminder that lineup order has a minimal effect on scoring. This has been proven many, many, many times. I know back in university (around 1990) I put together a simulator on a tiny computer that had about 4 kb of memory (yes, KB, not MB or GB) and did full seasons, then wrote the results down (that much memory didn't hold much). The spread when using a leadoff hitter who was hitting like a pitcher vs Rickey Henderson was not that large (maybe 10 or so runs a year) if both were in the lineup either way. The spread for more sane things like Gimenez 4th vs 8th or Springer 5th vs 9th would probably result in no more than 10 runs over a full season, in fact I suspect closer to 3-5 runs at most.

Yeah, it is annoying to see Springer in the top 5, same with Gimenez. I suspect if Roden makes the team and so does Wagner that we'll see changes quickly. Reputation/seniority works for a bit, but eventually shifting will happen. Last year there just wasn't anyone to put in there instead of Springer, especially after his WOW month of July (274/343/505). June was his only other month with a 700+ OPS at 724. To really split it up - after the May 25th game he was at 188/264/273, May 26-July 21st he hit 279/364/545. July 22nd-the end 201/288/314. Ugh. So what to do with him? 2 horrid long stretches (combined around a 600 OPS), 1 WOW stretch (over 900 OPS). No rhyme or reason for the slumps or the peak from what I saw or anyone saw. The peak saw NYY, Boston, Baltimore, Houston, Detroit (none weaklings), plus Arizona, SFG, Seattle, Cleveland, 2 A's, Pittsburgh, and 3 ChiSox games. So not a ton of horrid teams (just 5 vs horrid teams in A's and ChiSox), the rest were teams that were contenders or who dreamed of being that ala the Jays.

I get why the Jays would still hope Springer has something - they owe him $48.3 mil still after all, plus that hot streak wasn't short enough to write off or just vs horrid teams. It isn't easy to know what to do with a guy like him who is near the end, but might have a solid year in him still while you are paying a lot to him. If anyone out there is willing to risk it and take on most of that salary then woohoo. I suspect with Roden in CF again today the Jays are probably going to put him in CF until Varsho is ready rather than use a no-bat guy like Straw (yeah, hot spring, but realistically no chance in regular season), and Loperfido has burned himself with a sub 600 OPS and scary looking defense out there (at least when I've watched games - only seen a few), and Clase isn't ready while Berroa was never really in the conversation I suspect (despite his 948 OPS this spring). Lukes I suspect will be up as the defensive replacement late in tight games vs a flyball hitting team.

Last ST game is March 23 opening day is 28th. The Jays will leave Dunedin maybe 24th with set rosters. AAA starts March 28th so their roster will also be set by the 25th.

Interesting to look at MLB.com stats. Their 'top prospects' leaders are waaaay off as their stats claim to be spring but have Roden at 875 for OPS which is far off his actual 1.428. So I went to the Jays stats and adjusted filters there to qualified rookies and get Robert Brooks at #1 (1 for 1 HR with a walk for a perfect 5000 OPS). For guys with 10+ AB's Alexander Vargas of the Yankees is #1 with a 1.957 OPS (wow). For 20+ AB's it is Matt Gorski of Pittsburgh at 1.530. 25+ AB's Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) at 1.500, tied with the Red Sox Trayce Thompson. But at this point I see major issues as I see Dalton Varsho and Matt Chapman on the list who clearly aren't qualified rookies with Roden inbetween them. Among players listed as qualified (30+ AB's it seems) just 7 have a 1000+ OPS, just 1 over 1200 (that Red Sox I mentioned).

The MLB stats are really messy - did multiple filters and got weird results (rookies doesn't count Roden, but qualified rookies does but that adds in odd stuff like Varsho). For team OPS the Jays are 7th right now, just behind the Red Sox and Yankees with the Rays at #10 while the O's are down at #21. By ERA the Jays are 17th, Yankees 6th, Rays 15th, O's dead last (6.52 ERA).

Starter Locks

* SS Bichette 27 R: 40pa, 5.0b%, 15.0k%, .367bip, .353avg, .243iso, 143wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 37pa, 5.4b%, 13.5k%, .345bip, .344avg, .171iso, 115wrc+
* LF Santander 30 S: 36pa, 13.9b%, 13.9k%, .292bip, .231avg, .133iso, 113wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 26pa, 11.5b%, 19.2k%, .286bip, .350avg, .682iso, 239wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 36pa, 11.1b%, 11.1k%, .370bip, .321avg, .129iso, 135wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 38pa, 10.5b%, 15.8k%, .308bip, .242avg, .167iso, 126wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 33pa, 0.0b%, 18.2k%, .500bip, .429avg, .258iso, 195wrc+
* RF Springer 35 R: 31pa, 19.4b%, 16.1k%, .167bip, .136avg, .043iso, 67wrc+

Bench Locks

* C Heineman 34 S: 19pa, 10.5b%, 10.5k%, .214bip, .200avg, .000iso, 48wrc+


Competition for the remaining 4 slots, in order of playing time this spring:

* UT Schneider 26 R: 33pa, 27.3b%, 27.3k%, .429bip, .333avg, .250iso, 172wrc+
* OF Lukes 30 L: 31pa, 19.4b%, 19.4k%, .235bip, .190avg, .167iso, 110wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 29pa, 0.0b%, 20.7k%, .318bip, .280avg, .143iso, 69wrc+
* OF Roden 25 L: 29pa, 20.7b%, 6.9k%, .375bip, .412avg, .421iso, 249wrc+

* IF Jimenez 24 R: 29pa, 17.2b%, 10.3k%, .200bip, .190avg, .087iso, 74wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 28pa, 3.6b%, 28.6k%, .500bip, .375avg, .185iso, 144wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 28pa, 10.7b%, 25.0k%, .222bip, .174avg, .160iso, 45wrc+
* UT Barger 25 L: 27pa, 7.4b%, 29.6k%, .467bip, .381avg, .333iso, 174wrc+

* OF Straw 30 R: 26pa, 3.8b%, 15.4k%, .500bip, .458avg, .208iso, 187wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 26pa, 7.7b%, 26.9k%, .438bip, .333avg, .167iso, 130wrc+
* IF Stefanic 29 R: 24pa, 16.7b%, 16.7k%, .400bip, .353avg, .000iso, 114wrc+
* OF Clase 23 S: 16pa, 12.5b%, 31.3k%, .111bip, .071avg, .071iso, -10wrc+

Lukes leading off and in CF today. The only two regulars in the lineup Kirk and Clement right behind him in the order.

Schneider at 2B today.

Barger jimenez loperfido berroa in the lineup fill out the bottom of the lineup.


No straw again. I'm thinking Lukes might be winning any battle for fill-in CF at the moment.



One more thing - i don't include any cut guys in the stats i just posted, even though some have more PA than Clase. But Rainer Nunez is in the lineup again today and has more PA than Clase and is kinda crushing it this spring so even though he's technically been cut already i'd say he's putting himself in a very good position going forward.

Berrios has been named the opening day starter. I find that weird that I thought Gausman was a shoo-in. Anyone else find this weird?

Not really. Gausman had a tough year in 24.
A healthy Schwerzer might have gotten the nod. 

Straw starting home game vs Yankees
Lukes starting away at Phillies

Berrios had the best pitching stats last year so it doesn't seem weird to me that he is the opening day starter.

Does Hector Gomez have any credibility ? He has reported that the Jays are making a new offer to Vlad in the 14-15 year range worth 550 to 600 million.

If the Jays offer Vlad a $550-$600 mil present day value deal to Vlad and he doesn't take it he is a fool imo. I'd believe a deal with overall value of that, but present day around $450 mil.

As to the battles - playing time and quality of opponent are the best indicators for us. Loperfido at 8.1 has the toughest, 7.5+ are Lukes, Schneider, Wagner, Jimenez & Barger, 7-7.4 are Roden & Stefanic, sub 7 means not seeing much above AA Clase, Orelvis & Straw. Think I covered all the contenders there. Clearly the Jays wanted Loperfido to run with it, but he tripped instead (head first into the CF wall as I recall).

Today, playing the A game vs the Yankees has to be seen as big for getting the most attention. Wagner (1B), Roden (LF), and Straw (CF) all in the starting lineup there.

ah poop mendocino didn't notice the split squad today.

so there goes my CF theory.

Sounds like Scherzer’s thumb injury is actually significant — could be the weak link in an otherwise healthy 40-year-old pitcher. It feels like there is a fair chance he doesn’t pitch a lot this year.

Based upon his last spring start does Scherzer go into the HOF with a Jays hat on?

Springer looking a LOT like last year - line drive into a double play, line drive out next PA. Hitting it hard but right at people.

Davis Schneider had a good game today with the bat and glove at 2b

Orelvis was hit by a pitch in the Philly game and immediately removed from the game. Details to follow....

Zach Pop being Zach Pop

I just noticed that it was Jordan Romano who hit Orelvis? Was it deliberate? Just kidding.

Scherzer not being healthy would be a huge blow. Francis is a massive regression candidate, and I think Yariel is better off in the pen. The depth beyond that is pretty slim. Hopefully they can squeeze about 15-20 starts out of Max in 2025. They will still need some capable depth behind him until hopefully Manoah is healthy mid-season (and even he isn't a lock to be effective once he comes back).

Any chance they could trade Springer for an equally overpaid SP?

Schneider said last year he was too focused on making contact and not doing damage and this year he's moving back. In a completely unrelated note, Mattingly has been moved away from helping with hitting.

Would be super cool if Schneider could get back on track. No reason he shouldn't be a solidly above average hitter.


A refresher on the lats 2yrs oF AAA performance:


* Schneider 24-25: 392pa, .309babip, 142wrc+
* Stefanic 27-28: 638pa, .396babip, 142wrc+
* Roden 23-24: 286pa, .345babip, 140wrc+
* Wagner 24-25: 383pa, .360babip, 137wrc+
* Lukes 28-29: 453pa, .389babip, 137wrc+
* Clement 27-28: 320pa, .338babip, 136wrc+
* Orelvis 21-22: 565pa, .310babip, 114wrc+
* Jimenez 22-23: 303pa, .287babip, 113wrc+
* Barger 23-24: 646pa, .304babip, 106wrc+
* Loperfido 24-25: 327pa, .322babip, 105wrc+
* Berroa 24-25: 354pa, .330babip, 105wrc+
* Clase 21-22: 426pa, .335babip, 97wrc+



Schneider, Roden, and Wagner are still the three clear-cut standouts here in terms of sustainable elite performance at a young enough age. I'd love it if all 3 made the team.

I saw that quote from Davis Schneider, and my first thought was Mattingly as well. Mattingly in 2024 might end up being what Game 2 of the 2022 Wild Card round was to this franchise; a huge catalyst for change. Hopefully we see some positive developments from it, especially with the younger players.

Orelvis update....he was hit in the hip and has a contusion/bruise.

They added Lovelady to the 40 roster. Is he in line for the bullpen over Pop and Nance?

MLBTR suggest there might have been an opt-out and added Lovelady to keep him around longer but doesn't mean he's made the team.

"Schneider said last year he was too focused on making contact"

Maybe I'm out to lunch on this, but the idea that if he was focused on power over contact would have amounted to better than a .191 Average is a bit suspect. I do however believe it's possible that trying to not be yourself could impact your ability to hit the ball.

Either way, sophomore slumps are pretty natural, and I am sure he will put up a better season (how good is the question, though).

I think you got it backwards, but yeah. His strike out percentage was about the same. The difference seems to be his line drive rate dipping from 30% to 22% in favour of ground balls. He pulled the ball a bit less.

I don't know what they are teaching but the idea has always been to take good hacks until you get to 2 strikes, then protect the plate and make contact.

Bloss was included in BA’s March 17 piece, “20 Standout Prospect Performances from Spring Breakout.” BA says his repertoire in his recent outing included “a four-seam fastball that sat 94-96 mph and touched 98 at peak, high-80s slider, upper-70s curveball and mid-80s changeup” and noted that he “kept hitters off balance with good stuff and command.”

They also listed Gunnar Hoglund as a standout pitcher. At the time of the Chapman trade (March 2022), I wrote: “The loss of Hoglund (as I predicted upthread) stings. Otherwise it's a reasonable package of prospects to ship out.”

Greenfrog you never miss a chance to remind us of your many comments that turn out true. How do you search past comments on topics from this site?

5gms left in ST. The homestretch.


Tonight's lineup may well be the opening day lineup, if Varsho still can't take the field:

* 1. SS Bichette
* 2. 1B Guerrero
* 3. LF Santander
* 4. DH Varsho
* 5. RF Springer
* 6. 2B Gimenez
* 7. C Kirk
* 8. 3B Clement
* 9. CF Lukes

Straw is not on the 40 roster.
Lovelady, Pop and Nance are all out of options.
Yarbrough is not on the 40 roster and is on a minor leagues contract.
Lauer is not on the 40 roster and out of options.
Nick Robertson, Josh Walker, Dillon Tate, Brandon Little and Easton Lucas are all on the 40 roster with  options.
Tate is a just a few days short of 5 years which would give him the option to refuse a minor leagues assignment.

Scherzer's thumb issue shows up around 50 pitches.
So far, his main issue is that pitching with a sore thumb could lead to a more serious injury.
Otherwise, he's just sore the next day.

If it's three years later, and now Baseball America is saying "his stuff looks good" but he's neither made the majors nor had a history of success in the minors... his loss does not, in fact, sting.

You'd have to think that probably just one of Lovelady, Pop and Nance make the opening day roster, and quite possibly none. So that will clear out two or three 40-man spots.

You'd think that either Straw or Roden could get added to the 40-man, but not both. Doesn't seem to me that the Jays are likely to face any difficult 40-man decisions.

Hoglund had a good 2024, posting 8.2 K and 2.55 BB per 9IP (119 K and 37 BB total) in AA and AAA at age 24.

He lost some development time to TJ surgery a few years ago.

The “sting” was in losing a decent pitching prospect at the time. He’s still an interesting prospect and it’s good to see him continuing to pursue his dream. Not sure why anyone would want to run him down at this point, but that’s the nature of the internet, I guess.

I won't quibble over Hoglund's 2024 - good luck to the fellow. But both your own raising the "sting" comment in the context of BA's positive evaluation and dalimon's asking about quotes that turned out to be true seemed to imply the assessment remained apposite.

I'm certain if we went through every time the Jays traded a pitching prospect we'd find very few ever reached the majors, and fewer still were of significant value (5+ WAR lifetime, normally I use 10 but for this I'd think few even reach 2).

A shame there isn't an easily downloaded trade transaction file somewhere (at least none exist that I know of). A trade file, and a draft file (plus IFA one) listing who/when/etc. That is what I dream of for making those ugly neverending tables I make now and then. My last one seems to have not drawn any interest, but I'll dream up of something more useful one of these days.

Interesting to note that Craig Kimbrel finally signed - a 1 year non-guaranteed deal with Atlanta for $2 mil if he makes the team. He will go to AAA to get ready. He has 440 saves (88% conversion rate) to go with his crazy 14.1 K/9 rate (still over 12/9 the past 2 years - his worst was 10.8 in 2022). Very nice value signing by AA - Atlanta was where he started his career so he probably has good memories of his time there - I suspect he wouldn't have signed that deal here.

Kind of surprised no one signed David Robertson yet - he has been a solid setup/closer for over a decade outside of 19/20. Heck, I'd love to see the Jays sign him. Yasmani Grandal is a solid choice for backup catcher but no one has signed him either (100 wRC+ lifetime, 95 last year. J.D. Martinez is still out there with some saying the Jays should sign him (I don't feel that way myself - I'd rather see the kids get a shot). Lots of others whose names are familiar - from Alex Verdugo to Whit Merrifield & Aledmys Díaz (remember him?).

dalimon5:

As you've probably found out, search capability on the site doesn't exist. But you can use Google:
site:battersbox.ca

Well, that reply didn't work. Truncated my comment. Try again:

dalimon5:

As you've probably found out, search capability on the site doesn't exist. But you can use Google:
site:battersbox.ca (then enter search terms, with or without quotes as you would a general Google search.)

For a user's comments, clicking on the username will bring up their 10 latest comments, and some statistics. To see more comments put username after the site search above.

greenfrog - that Chapman trade is pretty much 100% in the books now.

• Chapman as a Jay 8.0 bWAR over 2 years
• Lost to FA, picked Nick Mitchell with the pick gained who had a 816 OPS in A ball at age 20 last year).
• Traded away was Gunnar Hoglund (minors only - was sent down to AAA on the 10th)
• Zach Logue - 3 teams over 3 years in majors (negative bWAR for each), A's lost him on waivers after he was a -1.1 bWAR pitcher for them
• Kevin Smith - 2 years in Oakland, 0.1 bWAR, became a free agent and left for NYY, currently a FA.
• Kirby Snead - -0.7 bWAR for the A's, made into a free agent, off to Seattle, 10 1/3 IP, 0 WAR, again a FA.

Basically the only way the A's don't have this trade be a total disaster is if Hoglund can make a major improvement very, very soon (surprisingly this will be his first option used of 3).

If Mitchell develops then it becomes even more lopsided for the Jays (c'mon Mitchell!). The A's didn't even save much cash - for those 2 very good years Chapman only was paid $25 mil total by the Jays, or just shy of what SF will pay him in 2025-2030 every year. Dang, the Jays really did well there didn't they? Yeah, his first SF year was great (7.1 bWAR) but I wouldn't be shocked if the rest of the contract produces less than that 7.1 in total (he is entering his age 32 season - a notorious age for steep declines for players).

For those wondering (I was) - the post when Chapman was traded here is right here. Hoglund was the only one people seemed concerned about losing at all. A few didn't like getting him (looking at you scottt) while others loved it (uglyone, greenfrog). dalimon5 thought Pearson had lower upside than Hoglund (in the end neither has impressed) and would've preferred even Kirk going instead (but was happy to get Chapman). I called Oakland the Jays farm team (due to getting Donaldson, then Semien, then Chapman) and had been campaigning for the Jays to get Chapman for awhile then - nice that I got it right twice (Tulowitzki the other one I got right - where I said the Jays should get and did get in a trade - hey, give me this, I make 1001 wish trades so I'll take the 2 I got and just whistle quietly about the others).

"I think you got it backwards, but yeah."

Thank you for the correction scottt, I indeed wrote it backwards haha.

"If Mitchell develops then it becomes even more lopsided for the Jays (c'mon Mitchell!)."

@John - He was traded to Cleveland in the package for Gimenez btw.

Schwarber at 4/80 would've been an excellent signing by the Jays, he's been exactly what they needed.

There was a wide sentiment when he was drafted (and subsequently traded) that Hoglund would bounce right back from TJ surgery and be MLB-ready within a season or two. He may turn out to be a very good pitcher, but the trade can still be win-win because the Jays got Chapman when they were trying to win, and the A's got Hoglund because they like players who are cheap and don't have any specific plans to win baseball games.

Hoglund had 4 strikeouts in the 2 innings he threw in The A's breakout prospect game and was named to the breakout prospect all-star team, as was Jake Bloss and Trey Yesavage for the Jays.

The Jays got a 7 fWAR/8 bWAR out of Chapman over 2 years when they were high on the win curve and legitimate threats to compete for a World Series, which might be a bit clouded in hindsight given how both of those (post) seasons ended. It was a very good trade even if Hoglund ends up turning into a big leaguer.

With that said, the Jays do need to start getting some contribution from internal SP options. Francis was a nice surprise. Tiedemann (when healthy), Yesavage, and Bloss contributing would be nice.

Statistically speaking i can't find even one number that makes Hoglund look interesting. And unless something has changed significantly the scouting report doesn't seem to indicate a starter's repertoire.

Coincidentally, today BA posted an expanded writeup on Hogland (who I think would be a good player for the Blue Jays to acquire via trade). Here’s an excerpt:

It took some time for Hoglund’s velocity to return to pre-injury form. A healthy offseason in 2024 allowed Hoglund to take inventory of his arsenal and implement some changes to his pitch mix. He added a two-seam fastball, changed his slider to add more sweep and dabbled with a cutter.

Now, Hoglund has kicked his arsenal up another notch entering 2025.

So far this spring, Hoglund is sitting 93-96 mph on his four-seam fastball with plenty of ride, mixing in a two-seam variant at 93-94 mph. His secondaries have taken another step forward as his mid-to-high-80s changeup with nearly negative vertical break is his bread and butter. Hoglund is throwing a harder mid-80s sweeper and a slider with cutter like shape. This is the best version of Hoglund that we’ve seen as his arsenal continues to evolve and improve.

Blue Jays just signed Aiden Taggart, an unsigned Canadian prep pitcher out of Grimsby, ON who had been committed to the University of Utah. Aged 18, 6-4, 220 lbs... Fastball is 86-89 mph right now with a change, slider and curve. Long-term project.

I doubt the numbers will be significant, but I could see more of this Taggart stuff. I guess the more white people with proper visas get detained it might have international FA ramifications, but there will be bigger issues by then.

Fangraphs is doing a position by position leaderboard based on projected WAR.

• C: Jays 4th (O's 3rd) despite no real backup Kirk 422 PA, Heinemann 141 PA, Bethancourt 77 PA
• 1B: Jays #1 with a photo of Vlad there. Basically a big 3 then everyone else (Phillies & Dodgers). Vlad 602 PA (guess they don't expect a lot of DH/3B time for him), Wagner 56 PA, Santander 35 PA, Loperfido 7.
• 2B: 3rd place almost in a dead heat with Texas & Arizona. Slight drop then NYY & Rays, Reds, Cubs, and O's before a big drop for the rest. Giménez 630 PA, 5 guys with 14 PA each.
• SS: 12th place, behind KC/Baltimore who are far ahead of all others, just ahead of the NYY & Rays with Boston near the bottom. Bo 623 PA, Clement & Jimenez 35 each and 7 for Giménez.
• 3B: Jays 14th, but this is Cleveland by a mile in #1, then a lot of 'solid-OK'. Clement 273 PA-Orelvis 189, Wagner 140, 98 for others.

They haven't done the OF (Santander-Varsho-Springer and lots of playing time for Loperfido & Roden I suspect) or DH yet.

yeah if the BA report is right then finally a stuff upgrade might put Hoglund into starter's repertoire kind of stuff.

but it still seems pretty borderline - if his bread and butter is a high 80s changup then his fastball velo better get legit up into the high 90s to really make it work.

and the other "new" pitches have some pretty iffy descriptions there - supposed 2-seamers without any description as to movement, his slider now looks more like a cutter , and now he has a new "sweeper" (which is usually a slower spinnier version of a slider i think?).

before, his report just talked about his "slider" being his one potential plus pitch - i wonder if what his slider used to be is what is now being described as the sweeper, or the "slider that's more like a cutter".

FYI by fWAR the Jays were (in 2024) C: 9th; 1B: 2nd; 2B: 12th; SS: 21st; 3B: 17th, LF: 11th; CF: 19th; RF: 18th; DH: 12th; SP: 17th; RP: 30th (by over 2 WAR - ouch!).

The Blue Jays have so many position players floating around the minors. Wonder if they could flip two or three to Oakland in exchange for Hoglund. The team could use another controllable young SP in 2025 and beyond. Even if Hoglund is a #4-5 type who can throw around 150+ innings, that would have value for Toronto. And maybe he could be better than a #4.

I guess the more white people with proper visas get detained it might have international FA ramifications, but there will be bigger issues by then.

Not trying to start anything, but I don’t understand this statement about the young Canadian FA signing.

Is this some sort of commentary on the Jays, IFAs and the tariff war?

Or commentary on the sketchy nature of signing defectors out of Cuba?

Would the undrafted HS from Grimsby even count as an IFA against the Miles Straw money? Thinking about it further, wouldn't he be just like any other NDFA from the US?

I think this is the last offday of the spring, which i think is followed by four straight games and then we're done. I think.

So i'll get in one more off-day stats update before the end:


Starter Locks

* SS Bichette 27 R: 46pa, 8.7b%, 13.0k%, .344bip, .366avg, .366iso, 184wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 42pa, 7.1b%, 14.3k%, .344bip, .308avg, .154iso, 113wrc+
* LF Santander 30 S: 42pa, 16.7b%, 19.0k%, .280bip, .235avg, .118iso, 103wrc+
* RF Springer 35 R: 37pa, 18.9b%, 13.5k%, .130bip, .107avg, .036iso, 50wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 29pa, 10.3b%, 20.7k%, .250bip, .320avg, .600iso, 204wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 41pa, 9.8b%, 12.2k%, .323bip, .306avg, .111iso, 105wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 43pa, 9.3b%, 16.4k%, .300bip, .263avg, .237iso, 117wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 39pa, 0.0b%, 20.5k%, .464bip, .405avg, .216iso, 163wrc+

Bench Locks

* C Heineman 34 S: 22pa, 9.1b%, 13.6k%, .188bip, .167avg, .000iso, 26wrc+


Everyone is doing fine to great other than Springer, who better start hitting because i don't think they'll have much problem playing some of the guys below ahead of him. Oh and also Heineman can't hit but we know that.



Competition for the remaining 4 slots, in order of playing time this spring:

* OF Lukes 30 L: 38pa, 18.4b%, 21.1k%, .238bip, .200avg, .167iso, 102wrc+
* UT Schneider 26 R: 37pa, 24.3b%, 29.7k%, .467bip, .321avg, .321iso, 191wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 34pa, 5.9b%, 17.6k%, .280bip, .226avg, .129iso, 70wrc+
* OF Roden 25 L: 33pa, 18.2b%, 9.1k%, .368bip, .391avg, .348iso, 223wrc+

* IF Jimenez 24 R: 33pa, 18.2b%, 12.1k%, .227bip, .192avg, .077iso, 83wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 32pa, 12.5b%, 28.1k%, .263bip, .179avg, .179iso, 65wrc+
* UT Barger 25 L: 31pa, 9.7b%, 29.0k%, .471bip, .370avg, .296iso, 172wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 31pa, 3.2b%, 29.0k%, .450bip, .333avg, .167iso, 120wrc+

* OF Straw 30 R: 30pa, 6.7b%, 16.7k%, .500bip, .444avg, .185iso, 182wrc+
* IF Stefanic 29 R: 28pa, 14.3b%, 17.9k%, .389bip, .318avg, .000iso, 102wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 27pa, 7.4b%, 25.9k%, .438bip, .333avg, .167iso, 140wrc+


Lots of guys putting their best foot forward in this competition.

Roden the clear standout all-around here. Would be nice to see him rewarded. no guarantees of what happens with either player's performance this year but there's an obvious possibility that Roden over Springer could be a big upgrade in RF this year.

Schneider and Barger also having great springs, though in their cases there's still some concerning swing and miss going on, as well as super high babips driving the numbers. So not near-perfect lines like Roden's. But still great springs for both.

Wagner the big dissappointment so far (if anyone can really be a dissappointment in 34 spring PAs). Clearly getting lots of run by the team tho and still most likely to make the team.

Those 4 would likely be the highest-upside options to take up to toronto offensively, though of course none of them offer prime defensive cover so that might force the team to bring a guy who can more play a CF or SS instead of one or two of these guys.


Lukes so far getting the most run out of any of these borderline guys and doing exactly as expected - good D with a solid enough bat. I think he's their current choice if they need to keep a CF.

Jimenez and Loperfido obviously getting prime looks as well but both are struggling. Jimenez has the much better track record but SS defense is much less of a bench need than CF defense. Then again loperfido's defense is a big question mark too.

pretty funny that both Straw and Berroa are having great springs just to throw a couple wrenches in. Nobody wants Straw on the tam but he's having a better spring than most - though it's mostly a babip thing so i wouldn't get too excited and i doubt the team is being fooled there. Berroa is more interesting though as a cheap internal speed and defense CF - his track record is pretty decent at this point and he looks like a legit good depth option if CF continues to be a problem.


Maybe even funnier is that our "best" prospect Orelvis is actually having an awesome spring and nobody seems to have noticed. Ah well he should start in AAA anyways i guess.

You don't need prime defensive cover when both your 2B and 3B can play SS.

As I stated earlier this spring, both Schneider and Roden make sense for this roster even with Wagner on the team. If they do bring those guys north then the 4th OF should be Straw, just for pinch running and D.

If Varsho isn't ready they'll probably go with Lukes.

I don't know the entire ins-and-outs regarding IFA rules but Canada is not part of the world covered by IFA rules. They're covered under Domestic rules, as is Puerto Rico.

The only way Taggart signed as an IFA is if he has dual citizenship and was registered as a citizen of a foreign country long enough to appease MLB. It's happened a few times with US-born Dominican players moving back to the Dominican to skirt the domestic budgets.

Otherwise, he signed for $100,000 (draft max without pool penalties plus any of the few dollars leftover from the previous draft class).

Undrafted college or high school kids from the previous year's draft class can sign as UFAs up until the next draft... as long as they don't attend school. So Taggart would have been draft eligible in 2024, went undrafted and didn't follow through on his commitment to U of Utah (or deferred enrollment).

The Jays have signed a few free agents out of Canada... mostly out of Quebec with the most notable being catcher Nicolas Deschamps.

$150,000 now the max.

'06 Owen Gregg (Oakville) signed after draft last year.

College portal makes it tough on incoming freshmen.

Jays signed another big bodied pitcher, IFA RHP Jarlin Ugarte 6'4 220, will have a few in the DSL this year

When it comes down to it, I don't have any strong opinions about who should break camp. Assuming Wagner has a job, you can make a decent case for any of Roden, Straw, Lukes, Berroa, Schneider, Stefanic or Barger. None of those guys would be silly to put in Buffalo either. The only guys in the mix who I think should be in Buffalo are Loperfido and Orelvis. Orelvis because he's coming off the suspension, and Loperfido because he doesn't look like he's back on track yet.

To me any kids on the bench need to play if not everyday then at least in a platoon type role. Doubt the Jays would platoon Springer, but dang it has to be tempting right now to do that with him and Roden. Then you can put Wagner in the DH role as a mix/match with Schneider leaving only 1 bench slot as 'splinter city' which should be Lukes (so we have a backup CF). If they are determined to keep Springer as a full-time player despite his bad 2024, mediocre '23, and poor spring '25 then I'd only keep one of Roden or Wagner up while the other plays everyday in AAA as you'd have 2 slots at the end of the bench who would rarely play (ideal slot for Stefanic).

Unless the Jays are willing to put Springer into a part-time role or find a trade partner for him or release him (that'd be a major shocker with $50 mil left) I don't see how you can keep Roden and Wagner on the roster. Well, maybe if they put Roden in CF until Varsho is ready.

Maybe the take was about cancelling his US university commitment?
He still has to play in Florida, but he's playing for a Canadian team and can study in Canada.

The way things are, the Blue Jays crowds in cities like Seattle and Minneapolis will be tiny compared to previous years. 
Detroit is probably OK, but maybe not.
We shall see.

As to Straw - his numbers are suspect due to a high BABIP, but also due to his facing the lowest quality pitchers of any contender for a job in the majors. 6.5 (between A+ and AA level). The only other remote contender in the 6's is Clase. Everyone else is in the 7's (AA+) or 8 (Loperfido is the only Jays batter with an 8 level - or AAA level opposition on average).

I'd rotate Roden with Santander and Springer in the corners/DH.
Wagner can back up 3B/1B and would play less.  

The words from Spinger aren't very encouraging.
First he thinks he fixed something but it sure doesn't look like it.
Then he talks about working on the process, not the results.
That's not why he's getting paid 25M.

Wonder if the Blue Jays would keep Roden in the minors for a bit to secure an extra year of control over him. Maybe use Lukes, Loperfido or Straw in the meantime. Not saying I agree with that strategy, but it could be a factor in the front office’s decision-making.

Straw is 30. He was walking a bit more, 10% vs 9 or 8 when he was close to an average bat, but the strike out rate is the same and he's never hit homeruns.
So, babip will always factor in his results. That's the difference between hitting .221 and hitting .285.
I don't see any variations in his ground ball/line drive/ fly ball numbers.
He stole 30 bases in AAA last year and was only caught once, so I don't think he has slowed down either.

ah that's revealing John.

maybe even more about how it tells us what kind of pitchers the team is letting him face.

amount played against mlbers is a better indicator of who they're thinking of going with than just overall playng time.

The year of control thing is usually only for top prospects, especially high school players and international free agents who are younger.
Roden is 25. He'll be 31 in that "extra year of control". 

Agreed, but the Blue Jays system is a bit short on quality prospects. They might want to secure as many years of control as possible from their shortlist of good young players. And Roden’s age-31 season could be valuable — if he turns out to be a good MLB player (still a big if).

Anybody catch Vladdy's latest interview cementing his heel-turn? Apparently he says his floor is 500 million and with another good year he expects Soto money.

Won't be surprised to hear him booed quickly after his first slump.

Someone needs to have a talk with Vladdy about two things. 1) you can't say you don't want to be a distraction and then talk to media every second day about the contract. 2)he is wildly misreading his market. if he has another year like he had in 2023, I don't think he's breaking $250M. Fangraphs had zips do contract projections if he had an identical year in 2025 that he did in 2024, and even after that, his contract value was something like $450M. Someone woukd likely give him more but not by that much.

I'm not sure who helped Loperfido with his new batting stance but he appears to have poor balance, which is a terrible idea for someone with contact issues as it is... and he's really far away from the plate, although I think he may have moved a little closer recently.

I still see nothing there. Perhaps even less now than I did in 2024.

I doubt service time manipulation is the reasoning behind Roden possibly/likely not making the team out of spring training. At least I hope it’s not. Worrying about getting Roden’s age 31 season under team control instead of bringing the best talent to the Majors in a season they are trying to contend would be ridiculous. A 20 year old Vlad is the type of prospect you worry about service time.

My guess is the reasoning behind Roden not making it would be that he’s not on the 40 man roster, they don’t want him to be a regular DH, and the veterans (Santander/Springer) may have indicated that they want to play in the field more. Since Wagner doesn’t really have a position he plays well, they may not mind if he’s a utility bat that DH’s often. Roden’s playing time is probably intertwined with Springer’s place on the roster. If Springer looks washed in May/June, then maybe that’s when they pull the trigger.

With Pop suddenly stuck on the IL rather than getting DFA'd, that's one less 40-man roster spot to use, which hurts Roden/Straw.

Berroa is starting in CF today so hopefully he's in serious consideration for a roster spots. The few games are usually all about getting those breaking camp ready.

interesting change today:


* 1. 3B Wagner
* 2. 1B Guerrero
* 3. LF Santander
* 4. SS Bichette
* 5. 2B Gimenez
* 6. RF Springer
* 7. DH Varsho
* 8. C Kirk
* 9. 3B Clement


They sure seem to want to keep pushing springer down the lineup.

Bo does work better in the middle than at the top too, while Wagner if he hits to expectations is definitely more of a top lineup profile.

Swap Clement in for Berroa here and this could easily be a healthy starting lineup.

Shapiro with some actual candid comments this morning. That was unexpected/refreshing.

What did Shapiro say?

Yes please share.

https://x.com/ShiDavidi/status/1902738150205555104?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

as well

https://x.com/ShiDavidi/status/1902741924756304356

Other than having Gimenez bat 9th, that would be how I would set that lineup.

gotta be honest he has to know it's a meme by now so it's legit funny for him to lean into it.

gotta be honest he has to know it's a meme by now so it's legit funny for him to lean into it.

For those like me who avoid Twitter, Here is the Sportsnet version.

I wonder if incentives could be added in - ones like the Yankees had with A-Rod for reaching major milestones (need MLB permission for those) like 500 HR or 3000 hits, or more basic MVP ones.

.285/.421/.532 Soto
.288/.363/.500 Vladdy

Guerrero is receiving some very bad advice if he thinks his floor is 500MM and that he's in the same league as Soto right now. Soto hits like a HOFer, while Vladdy hits like an all-star. On June 19th, 2024 he was hitting .278/.365/.394 with 7 HRs. It's great that the Jays will have such a motivated hitter for this year, but he's making a big mistake if he forgets that only a few months ago some of baseball's biggest writers thought he wouldn't even clear 300MM. Hopefully he wins MVP and makes the Jays pay up.

Marc Hulet, why do we want Berroa to be in consideration for a roster spot? Is he faster and/or a better defender than Straw? I don't want that last roster spot getting starts anyway.

Francis looks very hittable.

I'm not sold on Wagner like others are, but I agree I like the lineup where Springer is batting 6th instead of pretending like he's a capable #4 hitter. If Wagner at the very least can sustain a high OBP, then he should be fine in the lead off spot even if additional power doesn't materialize.

interesting development:

https://x.com/Sportsnet/status/1902772363751559399

nice day for wagner. 2/2 with a double and a walk, and that nice play in the field. now carrying a solid .775ops in spring.


and as much as spring stats really don't matter, Mr.Springer is having such a dooze of a spring that he may actually be playing himself on to the bench, or at least to a very, very short leash. maybe a mystery DL stint at this rate tbh.

Respect FO comment on the Vladdy saga. Well played.

03/20/25 Toronto optioned LHP Josh Walker to Buffalo Bisons.
03/20/25 Toronto optioned RHP Jake Bloss to Buffalo Bisons.
03/20/25 Buffalo placed RHP Chad Dallas on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 Buffalo placed RHP Connor Cooke on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 New Hampshire placed RHP T.J. Brock on the full-season injured list.
03/20/25 Vancouver placed RHP Carson Pierce on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 Dunedin placed RHP Nolan Perry on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 Dunedin placed RHP Kelena Sauer on the 60-day injured list.

Asked Mark Shapiro about ticket sales going into the season.

Acknowledged single game tickets “have dipped” since last year, but April is traditionally a slow month. Fans will come to see winning product.

New Club 328 tix have sold out. There is a waitlist for premium seats.

— Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) March 20, 2025

No surprise the luxury seats are doing well. Seems those with money will always pay for premium stuff. Trick is finding ways to get the place over 3 million, tougher with just 40k seats roughly than it was with 50k. Need to average 37k a game to get there, thus a poor April makes 3 mil nearly impossible.

Agree with Ugly. Spring stats don't need much but man, Springer looks terrible. I don't think you give up on him yet but Jays can't have him playing like this and win and I'm not sure he can play any better. Hopefully, I'm wrong. Having Roden in RF makes the team much better.

Wagner looked good at 3B today. Not sure how he'd be full time but would be happy if he got some 3B VS RHP if it got another bat in the lineup. It gives the Jays another option for sure and their infield has some excellent flexibility and depth.

Watching Springer play is painful now. You can see how frustrated he is, he knows it wasn't that long ago he was a solid, even great, player. But now he just keeps hitting into double plays, watching strikes, etc. I'm sure the Jays check for this, but I can't help but wonder if his eyesight has issues and he needs glasses or contacts or laser surgery to keep at a ML level.

Hittable Francis is the best version.

The odd thing about Springer's spring is that his walk and strikeout rates are just fine - and those are the statistics that mean most in spring - but he's gotten absolutely nothing out of his balls in play.

And that's been the story of his decline over the past few years: his contact and swing decisions look pretty much the same, but the quality of contact has consistently declined. My impression is that's an unusual mode of decline.

Didn't see it mentioned, but Orelvis Martinez was Optioned to Minor League Camp with a slew of other guys with no chance of coming north.

Mildly surprising. That's a potential candidate out of the 3B rotation.

Orelvis isn't ready for majors and don't think he's an infielder either (except maybe 1B). He has a ton of stuff to work on. Clement, Wagner, Barger, and Vlad can all play 3B anyway. Would have been shocked had he made the team.

nice spring for Orelvis but for me yeah he should always have been starting in AAA this year. Let him legitimately crush that level before calling him up.

Toronto Blue Jays
@BlueJays
·
3h
ROSTER MOVES:

The following players have been reassigned to Minor League camp.

🔹 LHP Mason Fluharty
🔹 RHP Kevin Gowdy
🔹 RHP Hayden Juenger
🔹 C Matt Whatley

The following players have been optioned to Triple-A.

🔹 RHP Jake Bloss
🔹 OF Jonatan Clase
🔹 INF Orelvis Martinez
🔹 RHP Dillon Tate
🔹 LHP Josh Walker

Orelvis started off strong and then disappeared in the 2nd half of spring. His numbers are buoyed by that and misleading.

Fluharty is probably the most MLB-ready AAA reliever... but he has a 7th-inning ceiling... he lacks reliable weapons against RHHs that could be an issue at the MLB level.

If Varsho starts on the IL (and Wagner is at DH/3B/1B), my vote is Heineman/Betancourt, Schneider, Barger, Berroa with Straw starting in CF. BUT I think having to keep Pop and probably Nance means they don't have a clear guy to cut for Straw unless it's Robertson. Plus Straw impacts the budget and pushes them into a more dangerous penalty scenario. They also have to get Yarbrough on the 40-man. So then the other OF job goes to Lukes.

Wagner's play today convinced me he can handle 3B. He made some very nice plays. Sure handed, has just enough arm, and the only real question is the range when he has Bo (with questionable range himself) beside him.

Since Tate is on a split deal and has a minor league option remaining, he can be sent to Triple-A Buffalo without first needing to clear waivers — at least for the time being. He’s at 4.144 years of major league service, placing him just 28 days away from the five-year mark. Once players reach five years of MLB service time, they can’t be optioned without their consent.

MLBTR

Interesting that Tate still has an option left, making it easier to have him build up. At least for now.

Cuba and Venezuela will be on Trump's travel ban list. 
It's not clear if athletes on visa will be able to enter from Canada.

Varsho gets a rest today.

All the other starters are in.

With Lukes in CF and Barger in RF.

I'm getting fairly encouraged that they're going to be taking Lukes as the CF insurance.

There is nothing great about Lukes but he gives us at least a realisitic shot at getting some mlb average part-time performance, which is pretty unlikely from any of straw/berroa/loperfido even if they are better defensively.

Ugly, who do you see as the everyday CF while Varsho is still recovering? It would have to be one of those other 3 then, no? Or are you expecting Roden?

well i am hoping that lukes can be not-awful defensively, but i don't really know that i'm just hoping.


do you not think Lukes can handle it defensively?

or are you thinking it's a waste to have him hit vs lefties?

Roden, Lukes, and Loperfido are all lefty swingers... Berroa is switch and Straw is a righty... either of those two would give left/right CF options.

If you keep Roden, you essentially burn a 40-man spots needlessly if Varsho is back in 2-3 weeks because Roden would then go down to play every day.

Unless you cut Springer.

"Unless you cut Springer."


This is absolutely the correct solution to the roster crunch. Unfortunately in a world with guaranteed contracts, minor league options, front office ego (ex. they signed him), etc, a true meritocracy is not always realistic, but the Jays are a better team by cutting/trading Springer and replacing him with internal options, IMO. I guess there's still a chance that could happen, but it would be remote at best. More likely they'll see the home run he hit today as a sign that he's turning things around. I hope for the team's sake they are right.

I don’t like to psychoanalyze individual players, but it’s not a stretch to assume that cutting springer would be terrible for team morale. Just look at that reaction he got in the dugout after hitting the homer.

I’ve always thought Lukes a pretty perfect compliment to Springer. I don’t think we should be thinking of players as full or part-time only. Springer will get plenty of off days, they will pinch hit and pinch run for him, quite possibly defensive replacements.

Try to maximize what he still does reasonably well and give him a few more months. I can’t see them giving him regular status if he continues to struggle for a few months, and if we’re still in the race at that point, the players will come around to the move as well.

Popkins interviewed on the broadcast.

Popkins definitely speaks the new agey language of the Schneider Clubhouse. Not that that’s a bad thing, necessarily, since I think the players get to the bigs already fluent in that language.

Popkins compared Bob Bichette to Jon Jones of UFC infamy, and it was kind of a genius analogy if you know Jones style.

Speaking of the last spots on the roster, I don’t think there’s anything to worry about in terms of 40 man roster space. Guys like Lovelady either get hot at the right time or they get designated with the org hoping to keep them.

Similarly, I no longer think the FO sees value in keeping guys like Nance and Pop simply because they are out of options. I expect the FO will be aggressive cycling through those last few 40 man spots all season..

Barger sure looks the part of a big league power hitter. That homer was a bomb.

Springer still projects as a good hitter. He might be toast he might not be, but cutting him in spring training would be pretty rash. He was far from our worst performer last year.

In general, this Spring has gone about as well as you could hope for the Jays with the exception of Scherzer's injury and the bullpen. Unsurprisingly, much (not all) of the bullpen work has had an odoriferous aspect to it.

UO, if Springer starts the season hitting poorly (60-90 wRC+), how many PA would you give him before you relegate him to a bench role? Or would you give him a full season to try to turn it around?

Per MLBTR:

“Left-hander Ryan Yarbrough is going to trigger his upcoming opt-out in his minor league deal with the Blue Jays, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The team has until 1pm Central on Sunday to decide whether or not to add him to the roster. If they don’t give him a spot, he will become a free agent.”

Loperfido and Jimenez cut.

I was really worried to start spring that Loperfido would be kept up even though I couldn't think of one possible reason that would be a good idea, so this is good news.

Jimenez being cut kinda sucks because he's solid, but also the right call cuz there's just not room or need for him at the moment. He might be very good trade bait this year if he hits as i expect he will in AAA.

It would be foolish to write off Springer before he plays a single game this year. He had a monster month. He had a forgetful season. He is in decline. We're talking about Loperfido, Lukes and a prospect who's never played in the show before as his replacements. Give the guy a leash at least.

Are we summoning Bo to be cut before the season starts based on his 2024 season numbers? Springer is in decline for sure and should be cut back accordingly, not cut from the team.

If you're going from spring stats then pinch yourself and whisper "Gabriel Gross"

greenfrog - i get the feeling that playing time in the 3B/DH/OF slots will be pretty evenly shared with the bench guys. I could be wrong but I really don't think they'll feel obligated to play Springer every day.

I see jer said something similar about springer's playing time - i agree.

Scherzer going on the road for the start tommorrow. Target is 60-65 pitches. fingers crossed.

Looks like there's 8 guys left for the last 4 slots. Unless my count is wrong.


Wagner, Schneider, Barger, Roden, Lukes, Straw, Berroa, Stefanic.

Wagner is probably still an automatic, especially his spring line looks pretty solid now.

Schneider, Barger, and Roden have all put their best foot forward and have just hammered the ball this spring.

but all of lukes straw stefanic berroa have been solid too and provide some valuable defense.

I guess the risk with Springer has to do with his track record and brand (and contract). Let’s say he has an 85 wRC+ in June. The team may be tempted to keep playing him because he’s “George Springer” and maybe he’ll get hot soon and carry the team. Whereas a young player like Schneider or Barger with the same level of performance might not get the same rope.

The fact that the Jays haven't just stuck Springer in the leadoff spot bodes well I think. They should give him playing time but he shouldn't be guaranteed it and if is terrible, they need to not play him.

Honestly, I think the whole team would appreciate a thoughtful Schneider-type approach to Springer's playing time.  You want to put your young guys in positions to succeed, but you also want to put your vets in situations to decline gracefully.  If the team can manage this respectfully, that goes a long way to the 'culture' everyone likes talking about this time of year. 

To me, it does seem a good team 'culture', and Popkins certainly seems to fit the vibe. 

Buck and Dan spent several minutes today explaining why what I had just written about Lovelady in my last post was wrong, so just disregard that bit. 

Everyone was talking up Wagner and Roden on the broadcast, Popkins was talking of them as a like-minded duo, informed, prepared, 'smart' players. 

That's a nice grouping of the candidates there Ugly, four legit prospects who will get real playing time, four journeymen fighting for depth jobs.  Assuming two from each group make the cut, I can see the case for each of Barger, Roden, Schneider and Wagner in the prospect group. 

Straw still feels destined for Buffalo given his contract, and the flexibility gained by stashing him there, so I still like my mid-spring predictions of Lukes and Stefanic, as the 'right kinda guys' for the end of the bench? 

It has been fun having actual roster battles to follow this year!

There are different approaches the Blue Jays could take. I think Keith Law recommended just benching Springer and starting Roden or Santander (I can’t remember which) in RF.

I think rotating Springer through the OF and DH, with a number of off-days, is also a reasonable approach in the short term. Just don’t wait too long to bench him if he’s toasty and performing badly.

I'm advocating for Springer to play regularly to start the season based on his total career and concussion injury. I'm advocating for a short leash. If he sucks after 2 weeks you cut his playing time. If he sucks after a month and still gets regular playing time at the bottom of the line up then that's a different story.

BA’s staff prediction for the AL East standings in 2025:

Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays

Seems like a fair prediction after the Yankees early injury issues (Cole, Gil, Schmidt, Stanton, others). I can see a path to the Blue Jays making the postseason, though (it would help if they get 5+ win seasons from Bo, Vladdy and Gimenez).

dalimon5 - There is a name I hadn't thought of in a long time - Gabe Gross. He was top 10 for Avg/OBP and BB% in 2003/AA with a 319/423/481 line then spent 3 years in AAA (ages 23-24-25) with a brief call-up at ages 24 and 25. -0.2 bWAR as a Jay, then traded with 2 others (Dave Bush & Zach Jackson) to Milwaukee for Lyle Overbay and Ty Taubenheim. 88 OPS+ lifetime 4.6 bWAR (had a good year in Milwaukee with a 118 OPS+ right after being traded). Now he is an assistant coach for Auburn in the NCAA-division 1. As a prospect he peaked as the Jays #2 prospect (BA) in 2002 (2 years before we started rookie rankings here). Sadly the Baseball Cube doesn't have spring stats for his Jay years, just his Milwaukee ones and beyond. Dug through a lot of sources (The Star's archives, Internet Archive, The NY Times archive, my old Jays media guides) but no sign of a spring for Gross that was 'wow'. It was a fun hunt though - Internet Archive has all kinds of old baseball books available for free to read.

Bichette is 27 coming off a down season due to multiple injuries. Springer is 35 coming off two straight healthy down years, and last season saw him play like he doesn’t belong in the league for 5 months (amazing July skewing his numbers). I don’t see the connection there. Springer is clearly on the downswing and you don’t want to put too much weight into career numbers when he’s at this stage in his career. If he has a dead cat bounce in him, then I’d love to see it, but it’s way more likely that he’s a below average hitter moving forward. I just don’t see the upside in keeping him when there’s a potentially better option in house with a high floor. If you want to start Roden and use Springer as a 4th OF, then I’m perfectly fine with that, but on this team Springer is most likely either a starter or not on the team at all, with no in between.

Yea, put me in the camp that doesn't have much faith in the 2025 Springer. I'd give him a short rope and the kids a way longer one.

My favorite Gabe Gross memory (from 20 years ago!): Tie-game on the road in Tampa, bottom of the 10th inning, winning run on 3rd with 1 out... and Gibby brings in Gross - the former Auburn QB - for Frank Catalanotto to play LF. Sure enough, the batter hits a fly ball to Gross who catches it and launches a missile to home to complete the double play, and the Jays go on to win the game. Perhaps the greatest mid-inning defensive substitution in franchise history....

Looking at The Baseball Cube - they have spring stats back to 2006 (at least for premium members, which I am). Looking back at guys with 30+ PA and top OPS for the Jays...

• 2006: Eric Hinske 310/408/810 - had an injury filled year but his highest OPS of his career at 866.
• 2007: Reed Johnson 438/449/750 - disaster season, 625 OPS after an 869 the year before.
• 2008: Aaron Hill 447/500/723 - just 55 G 685 OPS
• 2009: Jason Lane (32 yr old OF) 358/375/736 with 5 HR stayed in AAA Vegas all year, started to pitch the following season, by 2014 reached majors as a pitcher.
• ....jump ahead to recent years....
• 2021: Vlad 421/511/737 - yeah, we know what came next. Also Joshua Palacios hit 353/421/706 at age 25 and got just 13 ML games for that 493 OPS, still kicking but has yet to have a 700 OPS in the majors in any season.
• 2022: no one over 1000 OPS over 30+ PA.
• 2023: Rob Brantley 438/486/625, 46 AAA games, 751 OPS in Buffalo.
• 2024: Vlad 463/511/707, Springer 415/510/707 - 2 guys who had very different '24s despite similar springs.

So can we conclude anything from this? Just that spring stats mean very little. They are fun, but that's about it. Also of note: Horwitz had a horrid spring in '24 - 125/255/150 but was perfectly fine once called up.

Loperfido cut along with Jimenez - both going to Buffalo.