Many of the minor leaguers and non roster invitees have been sent to minor league camp. Starting pitchers should be throwing five or more innings and major league relievers getting plenty of work in support. Players trying to get the last couple of spots on the roster need to show now why they deserve it. The Jays play the Orioles today with almost an opening day lineup. Orelvis and Myles Straw fill the 8 and 9 spots. Could they do that on opening day?
Many of the minor leaguers and non roster invitees have been sent to minor league camp. Starting pitchers should be throwing five or more innings and major league relievers getting plenty of work in support. Players trying to get the last couple of spots on the roster need to show now why they deserve it. The Jays play the Orioles today with almost an opening day lineup. Orelvis and Myles Straw fill the 8 and 9 spots. Could they do that on opening day?
More interesting maybe is that Varsho is slotted in between Santander and Springer in the 4 hole, meaning Springer is bumped down another notch.
They continue to use Gimenez ahead of Kirk which does make some sense but also condemns Kirk to the bottom of the order....if Kirk gets back to hitting closer to what he used to it's gonna be hard to keep Gimrnez in front of him despite the DP thing. A good hitting Kirk would slot in the 4 hole.
Great pitching by some key relievers ... I've always viewed Garcia as a middle-reliever who could pitch in the late innings, but he looks tough to hit right now.
Are they thinking Lucas might have a role down the road as an opener? Not sure why he alone of the relievers keeps starting games otherwise.
Roden looks more 'ready' to me than Barger, unless they like Barger more for the ability to play some 3B? Loperfido feels like the guy they might have liked going into spring, and he does seem to be toolsy, but I sure don't see him as a good choice for the bigs based on this spring. I'd put Straw or Schneider ahead of Loperfido, and like John Northey said in the other thread, I think Lukes and Stefanic (too a lesser extent) are the likely choices to sit at the end of the bunch.
Internal evaluations of D remain the wildcard in my mind - do they see Lukes or Loperfido as legit CF? Can Barger play some third to allow for late game moves?
That was a nice bunt by Stefanic, even if they got their signs mixed, and Bethancourt with two missiles to catch baserunners. He is starting to feel like the third catcher.
For pitchers with splits, you get 2 left bats in a row and it's not a great spot to bring in a lefty, Santander switches, Varsho can be pinched for.
Lazaro Estrada has looked pretty decent but he's heading to AA.
So is Jennings.
Bloss has shown an uptick or almost 2mph on the fastball. He could be interesting if he throws enough strikes.
I could see insurance costs becoming a problem going forward.
There are plenty of minor league players that are similar with huge power, K a lot and have weak D. I suppose every org has a few of this type of prospect.
The only bad news this spring (and yes, this includes the Guerrero saga) is that a key bullpen piece (Swanson) has been replaced with a huge question mark (Tate) and that Scherzer has a thumb issue. I'd say that's a decent spring. I put absolutely no stock in the fact some Jays are having good spring trainings. There is a much greater chance Alan Roden is the next Simon Pond than Kyle Schwarber.
I'd love to go back to the days where the odd spring training game was on TV in mid March just to re-establish contact with the team, and a few games on radio just to hear the sounds of baseball.
Geez this turned into a crotchedy style argument, but I am really over this month and a half long fluff.
It is nice to see some of the more unheralded prospects during garbage time of the second half of ST games. Particularly for those like myself that don't follow the minors.
Now that expanded Sept rosters aren't a thing anymore, there's fewer opportunities to see guys in the system.
If only to actually see what they look like and confirm that they do in fact exist. Particularly the RJ Schrek, Jacob Sharp, Eddison Paulino types acquired at the deadline in the firesale.
Yeah, they don't count towards the season, so what.
Some people only watch hockey once the playoffs start.
I think the spring games are a good indicator of April production. I don't think they mean anything with respect to performance in July or August.
Many hitters are still looking for their timing in April. If they can't square the ball in March, they might not be able to do it in April either.
A reliever who can throw 97+mph has a better chance of overpowering a hitter in April than in July. Especially if he mixes in a good breaking ball.
I don't think Tate will be ready by opening day. He's probably going to ramp up in AAA.
He signed a dual contract.
Roden is not the same type of player as Schwarber. The most interesting thing about Roden are his numbers at AAA last year.
The GM went out and challenged him at the start of camp and he has an OPS of 1.482 with 5 walks and 1 strike out.
He has a large burn on his chin from hitting the fence shagging balls.
Schwarber is a career .230 hitter who led the National League in strike outs in 22 and 23.
He's the best defender they have in CF.
He's hitting .476.
If he has a good March, they could probably flip him if they eat a good chunk of his salary.
He's also the type of guys they like to have on the bench. A defensive replacement who can pinch run.
They released Christopher Castro FSL LHP. I liked him.
A Nimmala had an exit Velo of about 106mph on a triple last year. 19 years old, 6'1" 170lbs. He will get bigger and stronger. I hope he gets to Vancouver soon next year.
Was Castro hurt?
He has a 2 year gap in his playing history for '22 and '23.
Presumably the money to sign the new guy is some of the Miles Straw allotment?
F Braco is from Venezuela not Cuba. I don't know how much money he would get. IMO 19 year old Cubans would get more money, but I don't know.
Also, Will Robertson, who is a familiar name, cranked a home run to centerfield which is 414 feet.
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Schneider on the bench spots: "There's still some battles going on there... there's probably three to four guys fighting for two spots."
which sounds like he's already got 2 slots selected (i.e. one starter and one bench slot), and i'm not sure who those two would be.
he seems to indicate Varsho is still a possibility to be ready to field by opening day.
So DH is Varsho or Roden, with Wagner also in the mix along with Schneider. Loperfido or Roden on the roster, but not both. Bench infielder (who will get splinters in his butt from sitting so much) I'm still betting on Stefanic as I don't see anyone else the Jays would be OK with having sit most games. Hard to see where the battles are that Schneider is talking about. Wagner-Schneider-Stefanic-Lukes the most likely bench with Roden trying to grab a shot over Wagner at DH. Loperfido wanting that CF job until Varsho is 100% but isn't doing enough to win it (608 OPS vs 8.1 quality), Straw has hit amazing (1.145 OPS) but against weak pitching. Barger might be pushing his way into the argument for DH/backup with his 1.149 OPS vs 7.5 quality though (hadn't noticed how much better he is doing after a slow start).
The more I dig the more I see battles. That is a very good thing. Right now cases can be made for Barger (1149)-Roden (1482)-Wagner (670 but damn good 2024)-Schneider (1240) for the DH slot (plus backup 1B/LF/RF/3B depending on player). Barger actually fits the desired profile best with his RF/3B time (covers for Santander and could be a bat at 3B when needed, shifting Clement to SS if Bo needs a day off, has a dozen games at 1B in the minors). I suspect Schneider is a lock (only RH bat) and one of Barger-Roden-Wagner gets the other slot (LH) with the 2 guys I mentioned earlier for the far end of the bench. If Varsho has to DH then the LH kid DH doesn't get a shot yet, but Loperfido does in CF.
Backup catcher was to be a battle, but Heineman has been solid (625 OPS, solid D), Bethancourt the #1 contender behind Heineman but 174 OPS kills that. The others have seen very weak pitchers (6.5 or less) and done poorly (3 hits over 23 AB's) so they'll all be in the minors with Heineman likely to be there all of 2025 unless he gets hurt.
1B Wagner and DH Schneider at the top of the lineup.
LF Loperfido CF Lukes SS Jimenez at the bottom.
Bethancourt looked good in the highlights throwing out two runners.
Heineman likely has the backup job but Christian looked good throwing at least.
Assuming no injuries, this is what I think the Jays will do (not what I would do):
Catchers: Kirk and Heineman
Infield: Guerrero Jr., Gimenez, Bichette, Clement, Barger, Schneider
Outfield: Santander, Loperfido, Springer, Lukes
DH: Varsho
SP: Berrios, Gausman, Bassitt, Scherzer, Francis
RP: Hoffman, Green, Garcia, Little, Sandlin, Yarbrough, Rodriguez, Pop/Nance
*Add Wagner if Varsho is on the IL to start the year
CF is a race between Loperfido and Straw. I haven't seen Loperfido hit in a Jays uniform.
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Kendry Rojas with easy 96-97 mph velo... nice slider, too.
Khal Stephan was underwhelming. Sitting 92-93 mph with meh secondaries. Not a good look for a second-rounder. Looks like a No. 5 type.
Bloss was good against much less advanced competition. Stuff not near the level of Yesavage/Rojas but he has well rounded secondaries.
6 whiffs.
The condensed 11 min Spring Breakout game is available on the Mlb.com YT.
Not that it matters, but the Twins defense was atrocious.
Yesavage is really an over-the-top chucker. Not sure who he reminds me of. Joe Musgrove maybe?
He's got no usable secondary pitch, but if he develop one average breaking ball, he becomes an interesting relief guy.
He sits around 92mph, but he's touched 96 here and there.
Roden in at CF.
Bloss was tops 95-96 mph on the legit gun... but it's kind of straight at that max speed. Orelvis just needs to move to LF or more likely 1B and prepare for Vladdy's departure. Mind you, the club may be showcasing him right now and he's more attractive as a 3B or 2B...
I'm really starting to worry Schneider is actually going to bat Gimenez 4th/5th during the regular season. At least George hasn't sniffed leadoff but 5th for him is also too high.
Gimenez should be hitting 8 or 9. Hitting Roden or Wagner 1/2 makes lineup so much better. Pushes everyone down to a better spot.
His era there was comparable to Manoah's.
Also, King, who was drafted 3rd, received a bigger bonus.
McGuire was drafted in 2010 and was pitching in AA the next year.
Stephen will obviously need several years to develop.
Yeah, it is annoying to see Springer in the top 5, same with Gimenez. I suspect if Roden makes the team and so does Wagner that we'll see changes quickly. Reputation/seniority works for a bit, but eventually shifting will happen. Last year there just wasn't anyone to put in there instead of Springer, especially after his WOW month of July (274/343/505). June was his only other month with a 700+ OPS at 724. To really split it up - after the May 25th game he was at 188/264/273, May 26-July 21st he hit 279/364/545. July 22nd-the end 201/288/314. Ugh. So what to do with him? 2 horrid long stretches (combined around a 600 OPS), 1 WOW stretch (over 900 OPS). No rhyme or reason for the slumps or the peak from what I saw or anyone saw. The peak saw NYY, Boston, Baltimore, Houston, Detroit (none weaklings), plus Arizona, SFG, Seattle, Cleveland, 2 A's, Pittsburgh, and 3 ChiSox games. So not a ton of horrid teams (just 5 vs horrid teams in A's and ChiSox), the rest were teams that were contenders or who dreamed of being that ala the Jays.
I get why the Jays would still hope Springer has something - they owe him $48.3 mil still after all, plus that hot streak wasn't short enough to write off or just vs horrid teams. It isn't easy to know what to do with a guy like him who is near the end, but might have a solid year in him still while you are paying a lot to him. If anyone out there is willing to risk it and take on most of that salary then woohoo. I suspect with Roden in CF again today the Jays are probably going to put him in CF until Varsho is ready rather than use a no-bat guy like Straw (yeah, hot spring, but realistically no chance in regular season), and Loperfido has burned himself with a sub 600 OPS and scary looking defense out there (at least when I've watched games - only seen a few), and Clase isn't ready while Berroa was never really in the conversation I suspect (despite his 948 OPS this spring). Lukes I suspect will be up as the defensive replacement late in tight games vs a flyball hitting team.
The MLB stats are really messy - did multiple filters and got weird results (rookies doesn't count Roden, but qualified rookies does but that adds in odd stuff like Varsho). For team OPS the Jays are 7th right now, just behind the Red Sox and Yankees with the Rays at #10 while the O's are down at #21. By ERA the Jays are 17th, Yankees 6th, Rays 15th, O's dead last (6.52 ERA).
* SS Bichette 27 R: 40pa, 5.0b%, 15.0k%, .367bip, .353avg, .243iso, 143wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 37pa, 5.4b%, 13.5k%, .345bip, .344avg, .171iso, 115wrc+
* LF Santander 30 S: 36pa, 13.9b%, 13.9k%, .292bip, .231avg, .133iso, 113wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 26pa, 11.5b%, 19.2k%, .286bip, .350avg, .682iso, 239wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 36pa, 11.1b%, 11.1k%, .370bip, .321avg, .129iso, 135wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 38pa, 10.5b%, 15.8k%, .308bip, .242avg, .167iso, 126wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 33pa, 0.0b%, 18.2k%, .500bip, .429avg, .258iso, 195wrc+
* RF Springer 35 R: 31pa, 19.4b%, 16.1k%, .167bip, .136avg, .043iso, 67wrc+
Bench Locks
* C Heineman 34 S: 19pa, 10.5b%, 10.5k%, .214bip, .200avg, .000iso, 48wrc+
Competition for the remaining 4 slots, in order of playing time this spring:
* UT Schneider 26 R: 33pa, 27.3b%, 27.3k%, .429bip, .333avg, .250iso, 172wrc+
* OF Lukes 30 L: 31pa, 19.4b%, 19.4k%, .235bip, .190avg, .167iso, 110wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 29pa, 0.0b%, 20.7k%, .318bip, .280avg, .143iso, 69wrc+
* OF Roden 25 L: 29pa, 20.7b%, 6.9k%, .375bip, .412avg, .421iso, 249wrc+
* IF Jimenez 24 R: 29pa, 17.2b%, 10.3k%, .200bip, .190avg, .087iso, 74wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 28pa, 3.6b%, 28.6k%, .500bip, .375avg, .185iso, 144wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 28pa, 10.7b%, 25.0k%, .222bip, .174avg, .160iso, 45wrc+
* UT Barger 25 L: 27pa, 7.4b%, 29.6k%, .467bip, .381avg, .333iso, 174wrc+
* OF Straw 30 R: 26pa, 3.8b%, 15.4k%, .500bip, .458avg, .208iso, 187wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 26pa, 7.7b%, 26.9k%, .438bip, .333avg, .167iso, 130wrc+
* IF Stefanic 29 R: 24pa, 16.7b%, 16.7k%, .400bip, .353avg, .000iso, 114wrc+
* OF Clase 23 S: 16pa, 12.5b%, 31.3k%, .111bip, .071avg, .071iso, -10wrc+
Schneider at 2B today.
Barger jimenez loperfido berroa in the lineup fill out the bottom of the lineup.
No straw again. I'm thinking Lukes might be winning any battle for fill-in CF at the moment.
One more thing - i don't include any cut guys in the stats i just posted, even though some have more PA than Clase. But Rainer Nunez is in the lineup again today and has more PA than Clase and is kinda crushing it this spring so even though he's technically been cut already i'd say he's putting himself in a very good position going forward.
A healthy Schwerzer might have gotten the nod.
Lukes starting away at Phillies
As to the battles - playing time and quality of opponent are the best indicators for us. Loperfido at 8.1 has the toughest, 7.5+ are Lukes, Schneider, Wagner, Jimenez & Barger, 7-7.4 are Roden & Stefanic, sub 7 means not seeing much above AA Clase, Orelvis & Straw. Think I covered all the contenders there. Clearly the Jays wanted Loperfido to run with it, but he tripped instead (head first into the CF wall as I recall).
Today, playing the A game vs the Yankees has to be seen as big for getting the most attention. Wagner (1B), Roden (LF), and Straw (CF) all in the starting lineup there.
so there goes my CF theory.
Any chance they could trade Springer for an equally overpaid SP?
A refresher on the lats 2yrs oF AAA performance:
* Schneider 24-25: 392pa, .309babip, 142wrc+
* Stefanic 27-28: 638pa, .396babip, 142wrc+
* Roden 23-24: 286pa, .345babip, 140wrc+
* Wagner 24-25: 383pa, .360babip, 137wrc+
* Lukes 28-29: 453pa, .389babip, 137wrc+
* Clement 27-28: 320pa, .338babip, 136wrc+
* Orelvis 21-22: 565pa, .310babip, 114wrc+
* Jimenez 22-23: 303pa, .287babip, 113wrc+
* Barger 23-24: 646pa, .304babip, 106wrc+
* Loperfido 24-25: 327pa, .322babip, 105wrc+
* Berroa 24-25: 354pa, .330babip, 105wrc+
* Clase 21-22: 426pa, .335babip, 97wrc+
Schneider, Roden, and Wagner are still the three clear-cut standouts here in terms of sustainable elite performance at a young enough age. I'd love it if all 3 made the team.
Maybe I'm out to lunch on this, but the idea that if he was focused on power over contact would have amounted to better than a .191 Average is a bit suspect. I do however believe it's possible that trying to not be yourself could impact your ability to hit the ball.
Either way, sophomore slumps are pretty natural, and I am sure he will put up a better season (how good is the question, though).
I don't know what they are teaching but the idea has always been to take good hacks until you get to 2 strikes, then protect the plate and make contact.
They also listed Gunnar Hoglund as a standout pitcher. At the time of the Chapman trade (March 2022), I wrote: “The loss of Hoglund (as I predicted upthread) stings. Otherwise it's a reasonable package of prospects to ship out.”
Tonight's lineup may well be the opening day lineup, if Varsho still can't take the field:
* 1. SS Bichette
* 2. 1B Guerrero
* 3. LF Santander
* 4. DH Varsho
* 5. RF Springer
* 6. 2B Gimenez
* 7. C Kirk
* 8. 3B Clement
* 9. CF Lukes
Lovelady, Pop and Nance are all out of options.
Yarbrough is not on the 40 roster and is on a minor leagues contract.
Lauer is not on the 40 roster and out of options.
Nick Robertson, Josh Walker, Dillon Tate, Brandon Little and Easton Lucas are all on the 40 roster with options.
Tate is a just a few days short of 5 years which would give him the option to refuse a minor leagues assignment.
Scherzer's thumb issue shows up around 50 pitches.
So far, his main issue is that pitching with a sore thumb could lead to a more serious injury.
Otherwise, he's just sore the next day.
You'd think that either Straw or Roden could get added to the 40-man, but not both. Doesn't seem to me that the Jays are likely to face any difficult 40-man decisions.
He lost some development time to TJ surgery a few years ago.
The “sting” was in losing a decent pitching prospect at the time. He’s still an interesting prospect and it’s good to see him continuing to pursue his dream. Not sure why anyone would want to run him down at this point, but that’s the nature of the internet, I guess.
A shame there isn't an easily downloaded trade transaction file somewhere (at least none exist that I know of). A trade file, and a draft file (plus IFA one) listing who/when/etc. That is what I dream of for making those ugly neverending tables I make now and then. My last one seems to have not drawn any interest, but I'll dream up of something more useful one of these days.
Kind of surprised no one signed David Robertson yet - he has been a solid setup/closer for over a decade outside of 19/20. Heck, I'd love to see the Jays sign him. Yasmani Grandal is a solid choice for backup catcher but no one has signed him either (100 wRC+ lifetime, 95 last year. J.D. Martinez is still out there with some saying the Jays should sign him (I don't feel that way myself - I'd rather see the kids get a shot). Lots of others whose names are familiar - from Alex Verdugo to Whit Merrifield & Aledmys Díaz (remember him?).
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- Chapman as a Jay 8.0 bWAR over 2 years
- Lost to FA, picked Nick Mitchell with the pick gained who had a 816 OPS in A ball at age 20 last year).
- Traded away was Gunnar Hoglund (minors only - was sent down to AAA on the 10th)
- Zach Logue - 3 teams over 3 years in majors (negative bWAR for each), A's lost him on waivers after he was a -1.1 bWAR pitcher for them
- Kevin Smith - 2 years in Oakland, 0.1 bWAR, became a free agent and left for NYY, currently a FA.
- Kirby Snead - -0.7 bWAR for the A's, made into a free agent, off to Seattle, 10 1/3 IP, 0 WAR, again a FA.
If Mitchell develops then it becomes even more lopsided for the Jays (c'mon Mitchell!). The A's didn't even save much cash - for those 2 very good years Chapman only was paid $25 mil total by the Jays, or just shy of what SF will pay him in 2025-2030 every year. Dang, the Jays really did well there didn't they? Yeah, his first SF year was great (7.1 bWAR) but I wouldn't be shocked if the rest of the contract produces less than that 7.1 in total (he is entering his age 32 season - a notorious age for steep declines for players).
For those wondering (I was) - the post when Chapman was traded here is right here. Hoglund was the only one people seemed concerned about losing at all. A few didn't like getting him (looking at you scottt) while others loved it (uglyone, greenfrog). dalimon5 thought Pearson had lower upside than Hoglund (in the end neither has impressed) and would've preferred even Kirk going instead (but was happy to get Chapman). I called Oakland the Jays farm team (due to getting Donaldson, then Semien, then Chapman) and had been campaigning for the Jays to get Chapman for awhile then - nice that I got it right twice (Tulowitzki the other one I got right - where I said the Jays should get and did get in a trade - hey, give me this, I make 1001 wish trades so I'll take the 2 I got and just whistle quietly about the others).
Thank you for the correction scottt, I indeed wrote it backwards haha.
@John - He was traded to Cleveland in the package for Gimenez btw.
With that said, the Jays do need to start getting some contribution from internal SP options. Francis was a nice surprise. Tiedemann (when healthy), Yesavage, and Bloss contributing would be nice.
It took some time for Hoglund’s velocity to return to pre-injury form. A healthy offseason in 2024 allowed Hoglund to take inventory of his arsenal and implement some changes to his pitch mix. He added a two-seam fastball, changed his slider to add more sweep and dabbled with a cutter.
Now, Hoglund has kicked his arsenal up another notch entering 2025.
So far this spring, Hoglund is sitting 93-96 mph on his four-seam fastball with plenty of ride, mixing in a two-seam variant at 93-94 mph. His secondaries have taken another step forward as his mid-to-high-80s changeup with nearly negative vertical break is his bread and butter. Hoglund is throwing a harder mid-80s sweeper and a slider with cutter like shape. This is the best version of Hoglund that we’ve seen as his arsenal continues to evolve and improve.
- C: Jays 4th (O's 3rd) despite no real backup Kirk 422 PA, Heinemann 141 PA, Bethancourt 77 PA
- 1B: Jays #1 with a photo of Vlad there. Basically a big 3 then everyone else (Phillies & Dodgers). Vlad 602 PA (guess they don't expect a lot of DH/3B time for him), Wagner 56 PA, Santander 35 PA, Loperfido 7.
- 2B: 3rd place almost in a dead heat with Texas & Arizona. Slight drop then NYY & Rays, Reds, Cubs, and O's before a big drop for the rest. Giménez 630 PA, 5 guys with 14 PA each.
- SS: 12th place, behind KC/Baltimore who are far ahead of all others, just ahead of the NYY & Rays with Boston near the bottom. Bo 623 PA, Clement & Jimenez 35 each and 7 for Giménez.
- 3B: Jays 14th, but this is Cleveland by a mile in #1, then a lot of 'solid-OK'. Clement 273 PA-Orelvis 189, Wagner 140, 98 for others.
but it still seems pretty borderline - if his bread and butter is a high 80s changup then his fastball velo better get legit up into the high 90s to really make it work.
and the other "new" pitches have some pretty iffy descriptions there - supposed 2-seamers without any description as to movement, his slider now looks more like a cutter , and now he has a new "sweeper" (which is usually a slower spinnier version of a slider i think?).
before, his report just talked about his "slider" being his one potential plus pitch - i wonder if what his slider used to be is what is now being described as the sweeper, or the "slider that's more like a cutter".
Not trying to start anything, but I don’t understand this statement about the young Canadian FA signing.
Is this some sort of commentary on the Jays, IFAs and the tariff war?
Or commentary on the sketchy nature of signing defectors out of Cuba?
Would the undrafted HS from Grimsby even count as an IFA against the Miles Straw money? Thinking about it further, wouldn't he be just like any other NDFA from the US?
So i'll get in one more off-day stats update before the end:
Starter Locks
* SS Bichette 27 R: 46pa, 8.7b%, 13.0k%, .344bip, .366avg, .366iso, 184wrc+
* 1B Guerrero 26 R: 42pa, 7.1b%, 14.3k%, .344bip, .308avg, .154iso, 113wrc+
* LF Santander 30 S: 42pa, 16.7b%, 19.0k%, .280bip, .235avg, .118iso, 103wrc+
* RF Springer 35 R: 37pa, 18.9b%, 13.5k%, .130bip, .107avg, .036iso, 50wrc+
* CF Varsho 28 L: 29pa, 10.3b%, 20.7k%, .250bip, .320avg, .600iso, 204wrc+
* C Kirk 26 R: 41pa, 9.8b%, 12.2k%, .323bip, .306avg, .111iso, 105wrc+
* 2B Gimenez 26 L: 43pa, 9.3b%, 16.4k%, .300bip, .263avg, .237iso, 117wrc+
* 3B Clement 29 R: 39pa, 0.0b%, 20.5k%, .464bip, .405avg, .216iso, 163wrc+
Bench Locks
* C Heineman 34 S: 22pa, 9.1b%, 13.6k%, .188bip, .167avg, .000iso, 26wrc+
Everyone is doing fine to great other than Springer, who better start hitting because i don't think they'll have much problem playing some of the guys below ahead of him. Oh and also Heineman can't hit but we know that.
Competition for the remaining 4 slots, in order of playing time this spring:
* OF Lukes 30 L: 38pa, 18.4b%, 21.1k%, .238bip, .200avg, .167iso, 102wrc+
* UT Schneider 26 R: 37pa, 24.3b%, 29.7k%, .467bip, .321avg, .321iso, 191wrc+
* UT Wagner 26 L: 34pa, 5.9b%, 17.6k%, .280bip, .226avg, .129iso, 70wrc+
* OF Roden 25 L: 33pa, 18.2b%, 9.1k%, .368bip, .391avg, .348iso, 223wrc+
* IF Jimenez 24 R: 33pa, 18.2b%, 12.1k%, .227bip, .192avg, .077iso, 83wrc+
* OF Loperfido 26 L: 32pa, 12.5b%, 28.1k%, .263bip, .179avg, .179iso, 65wrc+
* UT Barger 25 L: 31pa, 9.7b%, 29.0k%, .471bip, .370avg, .296iso, 172wrc+
* OF Berroa 26 S: 31pa, 3.2b%, 29.0k%, .450bip, .333avg, .167iso, 120wrc+
* OF Straw 30 R: 30pa, 6.7b%, 16.7k%, .500bip, .444avg, .185iso, 182wrc+
* IF Stefanic 29 R: 28pa, 14.3b%, 17.9k%, .389bip, .318avg, .000iso, 102wrc+
* UT Orelvis 23 R: 27pa, 7.4b%, 25.9k%, .438bip, .333avg, .167iso, 140wrc+
Lots of guys putting their best foot forward in this competition.
Roden the clear standout all-around here. Would be nice to see him rewarded. no guarantees of what happens with either player's performance this year but there's an obvious possibility that Roden over Springer could be a big upgrade in RF this year.
Schneider and Barger also having great springs, though in their cases there's still some concerning swing and miss going on, as well as super high babips driving the numbers. So not near-perfect lines like Roden's. But still great springs for both.
Wagner the big dissappointment so far (if anyone can really be a dissappointment in 34 spring PAs). Clearly getting lots of run by the team tho and still most likely to make the team.
Those 4 would likely be the highest-upside options to take up to toronto offensively, though of course none of them offer prime defensive cover so that might force the team to bring a guy who can more play a CF or SS instead of one or two of these guys.
Lukes so far getting the most run out of any of these borderline guys and doing exactly as expected - good D with a solid enough bat. I think he's their current choice if they need to keep a CF.
Jimenez and Loperfido obviously getting prime looks as well but both are struggling. Jimenez has the much better track record but SS defense is much less of a bench need than CF defense. Then again loperfido's defense is a big question mark too.
pretty funny that both Straw and Berroa are having great springs just to throw a couple wrenches in. Nobody wants Straw on the tam but he's having a better spring than most - though it's mostly a babip thing so i wouldn't get too excited and i doubt the team is being fooled there. Berroa is more interesting though as a cheap internal speed and defense CF - his track record is pretty decent at this point and he looks like a legit good depth option if CF continues to be a problem.
Maybe even funnier is that our "best" prospect Orelvis is actually having an awesome spring and nobody seems to have noticed. Ah well he should start in AAA anyways i guess.
As I stated earlier this spring, both Schneider and Roden make sense for this roster even with Wagner on the team. If they do bring those guys north then the 4th OF should be Straw, just for pinch running and D.
If Varsho isn't ready they'll probably go with Lukes.
The only way Taggart signed as an IFA is if he has dual citizenship and was registered as a citizen of a foreign country long enough to appease MLB. It's happened a few times with US-born Dominican players moving back to the Dominican to skirt the domestic budgets.
Otherwise, he signed for $100,000 (draft max without pool penalties plus any of the few dollars leftover from the previous draft class).
Undrafted college or high school kids from the previous year's draft class can sign as UFAs up until the next draft... as long as they don't attend school. So Taggart would have been draft eligible in 2024, went undrafted and didn't follow through on his commitment to U of Utah (or deferred enrollment).
The Jays have signed a few free agents out of Canada... mostly out of Quebec with the most notable being catcher Nicolas Deschamps.
'06 Owen Gregg (Oakville) signed after draft last year.
College portal makes it tough on incoming freshmen.
Jays signed another big bodied pitcher, IFA RHP Jarlin Ugarte 6'4 220, will have a few in the DSL this year
Unless the Jays are willing to put Springer into a part-time role or find a trade partner for him or release him (that'd be a major shocker with $50 mil left) I don't see how you can keep Roden and Wagner on the roster. Well, maybe if they put Roden in CF until Varsho is ready.
He still has to play in Florida, but he's playing for a Canadian team and can study in Canada.
The way things are, the Blue Jays crowds in cities like Seattle and Minneapolis will be tiny compared to previous years.
Detroit is probably OK, but maybe not.
We shall see.
Wagner can back up 3B/1B and would play less.
The words from Spinger aren't very encouraging.
First he thinks he fixed something but it sure doesn't look like it.
Then he talks about working on the process, not the results.
That's not why he's getting paid 25M.
So, babip will always factor in his results. That's the difference between hitting .221 and hitting .285.
I don't see any variations in his ground ball/line drive/ fly ball numbers.
He stole 30 bases in AAA last year and was only caught once, so I don't think he has slowed down either.
maybe even more about how it tells us what kind of pitchers the team is letting him face.
amount played against mlbers is a better indicator of who they're thinking of going with than just overall playng time.
Roden is 25. He'll be 31 in that "extra year of control".
Won't be surprised to hear him booed quickly after his first slump.
I still see nothing there. Perhaps even less now than I did in 2024.
My guess is the reasoning behind Roden not making it would be that he’s not on the 40 man roster, they don’t want him to be a regular DH, and the veterans (Santander/Springer) may have indicated that they want to play in the field more. Since Wagner doesn’t really have a position he plays well, they may not mind if he’s a utility bat that DH’s often. Roden’s playing time is probably intertwined with Springer’s place on the roster. If Springer looks washed in May/June, then maybe that’s when they pull the trigger.
Berroa is starting in CF today so hopefully he's in serious consideration for a roster spots. The few games are usually all about getting those breaking camp ready.
* 1. 3B Wagner
* 2. 1B Guerrero
* 3. LF Santander
* 4. SS Bichette
* 5. 2B Gimenez
* 6. RF Springer
* 7. DH Varsho
* 8. C Kirk
* 9. 3B Clement
They sure seem to want to keep pushing springer down the lineup.
Bo does work better in the middle than at the top too, while Wagner if he hits to expectations is definitely more of a top lineup profile.
Swap Clement in for Berroa here and this could easily be a healthy starting lineup.
https://x.com/ShiDavidi/status/1902741924756304356
.288/.363/.500 Vladdy
Guerrero is receiving some very bad advice if he thinks his floor is 500MM and that he's in the same league as Soto right now. Soto hits like a HOFer, while Vladdy hits like an all-star. On June 19th, 2024 he was hitting .278/.365/.394 with 7 HRs. It's great that the Jays will have such a motivated hitter for this year, but he's making a big mistake if he forgets that only a few months ago some of baseball's biggest writers thought he wouldn't even clear 300MM. Hopefully he wins MVP and makes the Jays pay up.
https://x.com/Sportsnet/status/1902772363751559399
and as much as spring stats really don't matter, Mr.Springer is having such a dooze of a spring that he may actually be playing himself on to the bench, or at least to a very, very short leash. maybe a mystery DL stint at this rate tbh.
03/20/25 Toronto optioned RHP Jake Bloss to Buffalo Bisons.
03/20/25 Buffalo placed RHP Chad Dallas on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 Buffalo placed RHP Connor Cooke on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 New Hampshire placed RHP T.J. Brock on the full-season injured list.
03/20/25 Vancouver placed RHP Carson Pierce on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 Dunedin placed RHP Nolan Perry on the 60-day injured list.
03/20/25 Dunedin placed RHP Kelena Sauer on the 60-day injured list.
Asked Mark Shapiro about ticket sales going into the season.
— Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) March 20, 2025
Acknowledged single game tickets “have dipped” since last year, but April is traditionally a slow month. Fans will come to see winning product.
New Club 328 tix have sold out. There is a waitlist for premium seats.
Wagner looked good at 3B today. Not sure how he'd be full time but would be happy if he got some 3B VS RHP if it got another bat in the lineup. It gives the Jays another option for sure and their infield has some excellent flexibility and depth.
And that's been the story of his decline over the past few years: his contact and swing decisions look pretty much the same, but the quality of contact has consistently declined. My impression is that's an unusual mode of decline.
Mildly surprising. That's a potential candidate out of the 3B rotation.
@BlueJays
·
3h
ROSTER MOVES:
The following players have been reassigned to Minor League camp.
🔹 LHP Mason Fluharty
🔹 RHP Kevin Gowdy
🔹 RHP Hayden Juenger
🔹 C Matt Whatley
The following players have been optioned to Triple-A.
🔹 RHP Jake Bloss
🔹 OF Jonatan Clase
🔹 INF Orelvis Martinez
🔹 RHP Dillon Tate
🔹 LHP Josh Walker
Fluharty is probably the most MLB-ready AAA reliever... but he has a 7th-inning ceiling... he lacks reliable weapons against RHHs that could be an issue at the MLB level.
If Varsho starts on the IL (and Wagner is at DH/3B/1B), my vote is Heineman/Betancourt, Schneider, Barger, Berroa with Straw starting in CF. BUT I think having to keep Pop and probably Nance means they don't have a clear guy to cut for Straw unless it's Robertson. Plus Straw impacts the budget and pushes them into a more dangerous penalty scenario. They also have to get Yarbrough on the 40-man. So then the other OF job goes to Lukes.
Wagner's play today convinced me he can handle 3B. He made some very nice plays. Sure handed, has just enough arm, and the only real question is the range when he has Bo (with questionable range himself) beside him.
Since Tate is on a split deal and has a minor league option remaining, he can be sent to Triple-A Buffalo without first needing to clear waivers — at least for the time being. He’s at 4.144 years of major league service, placing him just 28 days away from the five-year mark. Once players reach five years of MLB service time, they can’t be optioned without their consent.MLBTR
Interesting that Tate still has an option left, making it easier to have him build up. At least for now.
It's not clear if athletes on visa will be able to enter from Canada.
All the other starters are in.
With Lukes in CF and Barger in RF.
There is nothing great about Lukes but he gives us at least a realisitic shot at getting some mlb average part-time performance, which is pretty unlikely from any of straw/berroa/loperfido even if they are better defensively.
well i am hoping that lukes can be not-awful defensively, but i don't really know that i'm just hoping.
do you not think Lukes can handle it defensively?
or are you thinking it's a waste to have him hit vs lefties?
If you keep Roden, you essentially burn a 40-man spots needlessly if Varsho is back in 2-3 weeks because Roden would then go down to play every day.
Unless you cut Springer.
This is absolutely the correct solution to the roster crunch. Unfortunately in a world with guaranteed contracts, minor league options, front office ego (ex. they signed him), etc, a true meritocracy is not always realistic, but the Jays are a better team by cutting/trading Springer and replacing him with internal options, IMO. I guess there's still a chance that could happen, but it would be remote at best. More likely they'll see the home run he hit today as a sign that he's turning things around. I hope for the team's sake they are right.
I’ve always thought Lukes a pretty perfect compliment to Springer. I don’t think we should be thinking of players as full or part-time only. Springer will get plenty of off days, they will pinch hit and pinch run for him, quite possibly defensive replacements.
Try to maximize what he still does reasonably well and give him a few more months. I can’t see them giving him regular status if he continues to struggle for a few months, and if we’re still in the race at that point, the players will come around to the move as well.
Popkins interviewed on the broadcast.
Popkins definitely speaks the new agey language of the Schneider Clubhouse. Not that that’s a bad thing, necessarily, since I think the players get to the bigs already fluent in that language.
Popkins compared Bob Bichette to Jon Jones of UFC infamy, and it was kind of a genius analogy if you know Jones style.
Speaking of the last spots on the roster, I don’t think there’s anything to worry about in terms of 40 man roster space. Guys like Lovelady either get hot at the right time or they get designated with the org hoping to keep them.
Similarly, I no longer think the FO sees value in keeping guys like Nance and Pop simply because they are out of options. I expect the FO will be aggressive cycling through those last few 40 man spots all season..
Barger sure looks the part of a big league power hitter. That homer was a bomb.
“Left-hander Ryan Yarbrough is going to trigger his upcoming opt-out in his minor league deal with the Blue Jays, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The team has until 1pm Central on Sunday to decide whether or not to add him to the roster. If they don’t give him a spot, he will become a free agent.”
I was really worried to start spring that Loperfido would be kept up even though I couldn't think of one possible reason that would be a good idea, so this is good news.
Jimenez being cut kinda sucks because he's solid, but also the right call cuz there's just not room or need for him at the moment. He might be very good trade bait this year if he hits as i expect he will in AAA.
Are we summoning Bo to be cut before the season starts based on his 2024 season numbers? Springer is in decline for sure and should be cut back accordingly, not cut from the team.
If you're going from spring stats then pinch yourself and whisper "Gabriel Gross"
Wagner, Schneider, Barger, Roden, Lukes, Straw, Berroa, Stefanic.
Wagner is probably still an automatic, especially his spring line looks pretty solid now.
Schneider, Barger, and Roden have all put their best foot forward and have just hammered the ball this spring.
but all of lukes straw stefanic berroa have been solid too and provide some valuable defense.
To me, it does seem a good team 'culture', and Popkins certainly seems to fit the vibe.
Buck and Dan spent several minutes today explaining why what I had just written about Lovelady in my last post was wrong, so just disregard that bit.
Everyone was talking up Wagner and Roden on the broadcast, Popkins was talking of them as a like-minded duo, informed, prepared, 'smart' players.
That's a nice grouping of the candidates there Ugly, four legit prospects who will get real playing time, four journeymen fighting for depth jobs. Assuming two from each group make the cut, I can see the case for each of Barger, Roden, Schneider and Wagner in the prospect group.
Straw still feels destined for Buffalo given his contract, and the flexibility gained by stashing him there, so I still like my mid-spring predictions of Lukes and Stefanic, as the 'right kinda guys' for the end of the bench?
It has been fun having actual roster battles to follow this year!
I think rotating Springer through the OF and DH, with a number of off-days, is also a reasonable approach in the short term. Just don’t wait too long to bench him if he’s toasty and performing badly.
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Seems like a fair prediction after the Yankees early injury issues (Cole, Gil, Schmidt, Stanton, others). I can see a path to the Blue Jays making the postseason, though (it would help if they get 5+ win seasons from Bo, Vladdy and Gimenez).
- 2006: Eric Hinske 310/408/810 - had an injury filled year but his highest OPS of his career at 866.
- 2007: Reed Johnson 438/449/750 - disaster season, 625 OPS after an 869 the year before.
- 2008: Aaron Hill 447/500/723 - just 55 G 685 OPS
- 2009: Jason Lane (32 yr old OF) 358/375/736 with 5 HR stayed in AAA Vegas all year, started to pitch the following season, by 2014 reached majors as a pitcher.
- ....jump ahead to recent years....
- 2021: Vlad 421/511/737 - yeah, we know what came next. Also Joshua Palacios hit 353/421/706 at age 25 and got just 13 ML games for that 493 OPS, still kicking but has yet to have a 700 OPS in the majors in any season.
- 2022: no one over 1000 OPS over 30+ PA.
- 2023: Rob Brantley 438/486/625, 46 AAA games, 751 OPS in Buffalo.
- 2024: Vlad 463/511/707, Springer 415/510/707 - 2 guys who had very different '24s despite similar springs.