Atkins said keeping three catchers is less than ideal so expect Kirk to be traded on big deal or McGuire to be jettisoned. Jays really need another IFer as well. Even a Brad Miller type would be OK but ideally, they'd get someone who can start regularly at 3B. Schwarber would be great as DH, occasional 1B/LF when needed.

I just skimmed it but I didn't see more than a few words on the universal DH in the last thread. The effects of the universal DH are going to ripple through both leagues allowing for better defense and offense in the NL. There is now more incentive and competition to better deploy the spot better hopefully generating better strategies than the "slow slugger who can't field" and the "half-day rest".

I was holding off on a new thread until Freeman makes up his mind but that might not be until April 6th at this pace. Sheesh. I expect the Jays are already preparing for plan B with Schwarber, and plan C and D are at the ready. Lets do a quick comparison of options via ZiPS (FanGraphs) WAR and wRC+...

• Freeman: 1B/LH - 4.0 135 wRC+ QO
• Schwarber: LF/LH - 2.6 125 wRC+
• Votto: 1B/LH - 1.7 115 wRC+
• Bryant: 3B/RH - 2.7 113 wRC+
• Correa: SS/RH - 5.2 132 wRC+ QO
• Story: SS/RH - 3.6 108 wRC+ QO
• Castellanos: RF/RH - 2.1 117 wRC+ QO
• Conforto: RF/LH - 2.5 121 wRC+ QO
• Rizzo: 1B/LH - 2.5 122 wRC+
• Suzuki: RF/RH - 3.7 141 wRC+
• Pederson: OF/LH - 1.5 106 wRC+
• Villar: 3B/SH - 1.2 95 wRC+
• Soler: RF/RH - 1.6 116 wRC+
• Dickerson: LF/LH - 0.8 101 wRC+

I think that is it for free agent hitters left out there who are any good. Suzuki's projection surprised me - if he is really that good then a $100 mil contract should be in his future, but I doubt any teams are projecting him that high. Rumors are more in the $60-80 mil range for 5 years. No question Correa would be sweet but $300+ mil needed plus he has to stick at SS moving Bo to 2B. Probably better for defense than a Freeman to 1B, Vlad to 3B situation. I suspect if Schwarber or another OF is signed we'd see a trade quickly form involving at least 1 of Grichuk/Gurriel/Hernandez in an effort to get more IF help. The Villar rumor still seems weird to me, even if he does on the surface appear ideal (switch hitter, plays 3B). IMO anyone who adds less than 2 WAR isn't worth it except as a backup (maybe Dickerson or Pederson if all else fails). Hadn't thought about Rizzo but he is tempting too - that bat would fit in nicely.

The more I think about it the more I like Votto and the presumably low cost to acquire him. It has nothing to do with the fact he is a Torontonian by birth.

Freddie Freeman too expensive.
Schwarber is almost the same as Rizzo when you look at that list.

No other solid LHH besides Votto.

Rizzo to Yankees.

Yep. It is a rule - as soon as I type out a list like that and say 'hmmm' that player disappears. Wonder if this means the Yankees feel they had to move to Plan B after Freeman? Lets hope. I really don't want Freeman in NY or Boston. I could live with Tampa Bay as we'd know that is it for their budget, but NY & Boston can absorb him with ease.

Last year Rizzo was not vaccinated so we'll see if that has changed. Huge overpay by Yankees IMO. He's a good hitter but not elite and seems to be declining. I'm not sure he's much better than Voit at this point.

Wow, $32 mil over 2 years for Rizzo. Good for him, but for the Yankees they are in danger territory - payroll up to $251 mil according to Cot's which means they are over threshold #2 now for the CBT ($250 mil) which adds a surtax of 12% on top of the 20% they are paying already. At $270 they get hit with 42.5% surcharge and having their first pic in the draft pushed back 10 slots. So signing another big free agent would put the Yankees in the big penalty box. At $290+ they would get hit with a 60% surcharge. For next offseason they need to deal with Judge, Chapman, Gallo, Green, and Tallion being free agents. Judge is looking at a $10+ million raise per year, Chapman probably nothing significant for a raise (as most teams hopefully don't want a wife beater on their club). Basically, at this point I'd be shocked if they signed any more big free agents this winter (Freeman, Correa, Story) as that would make this year go over the ugly CBT level and would make next year very hard to fit Judge and Chapman onto the roster.

Keep Freeman, Story, Correa and Schwarber away from the Red Sox and I’m happy.

Jays are getting Chapman. Let's see cost. Won't be cheap but he's a big upgrade at 3B.

Kevin Smith reportedly part of the package.

No matter who goes to Oakland, there may be at least one more shoe (another trade or acquisition) to drop.

Guessing Hoglund is in the trade.

Glad to see 3rd solidified. Doubt Freeman comes knowing he’d spend a good chunk of time DH’ing.

Ends Freeman and Ramirez talk I think. Jays just need a LH DH now. Schwarber or Votto would be great.

Suzuki to Cubs for 5/$70m.

Davidi hearing that Jays are now pessimistic about chances of landing Schwarber.

If Smith is included I’ll guess Groshans, Smith and Jiminez.

"Glad to see 3rd solidified. Doubt Freeman comes knowing he’d spend a good chunk of time DH’ing."

If Freeman comes in it is Vladi who will be seeing a good chunk of time as DH, not Freeman.

I think I might prefer to see Pearson traded over Hoglund. Smith, Pearson and Kirk would seem to be the most expendable assets at the moment.

The Jays absolutely needs a lefty masher in the lineup now.

It was reported as not including major league assets, so I think that would rule out Kirk and Pearson?

The Phillies have signed Schwarber.

With Chapman, Jays are, I think best team in baseball. Probably around a 95 win team with no apparent weaknesses except being righty heavy. Very exciting times!

“ I think I might prefer to see Pearson traded over Hoglund. Smith, Pearson and Kirk would seem to be the most expendable assets at the moment.”

My thoughts exactly.

Where do I find the stats for the Jays against RH vs. LH pitching for 2021? How much of a penalty are we paying for too few LH bats? Is this an issue we really need to solve?

Davidi reports that it's Smith, Hoglund, Logue, and Snead to the A's for Chapman.

"Davidi reports that it's Smith, Hoglund, Logue, and Snead to the A's for Chapman."

It's a lot but kind of what I expected and as long as they don't trade Moreno or Orelvis, I'm good.

A shame Hoglund had to be in it in particular, but I'm quite happy at the Chapman deal overall.

The loss of Hoglund (as I predicted upthread) stings. Otherwise it's a reasonable package of prospects to ship out.

I make it two prime prospects plus two longer shots. Smith was going to be blocked in Toronto with Chapman arriving. Hoglund is a loss but you have to give up value to get value. Starting pitching is a weakness in the Jays minor league system so it hurts to give up two starting pitchers. However the Jays are in a win now phase so its a trade that needed to be done.

Split    G   PA     AB    R    H     2B  3B   HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO    BA    OBP   SLG   OPS    
vs RHP 162   4483  4057  632  1072  213  10  195  614  66  16  357  888  .264  .328  .466  .793   
vs LHP 122   1587  1419  214   383   72   3   67  202  15   4  139  330  .270  .339  .467  .805  

To save you a click!

I've been saying for years that the A's would be trading Chapman around this time, but I still don't see him as a good fit.
Just the pay alone is lot of money for a marginal improvement.
He brings a lot of strikeouts, possibly a feast or famine offense that might not win more games.
The defense would have mattered more when the Jays had lots of ground ball pitchers.

This trade should really help the Jays. Stellar defense at third base plus a decent (maybe more than decent) bat that should slot in around fifth or sixth in the lineup, behind Springer (CF), Bichette (SS), Vladdy (1B), Teoscar (RF), and Kirk (DH). The team still needs a good left-handed bat, though. Not sure who that bat will be now that Freeman is unlikely to be added and Schwarber is off the market.

Nice deal.

All very expendable pieces.

I'd be happier if Pearson was the one shipped out instead of Hoglund. Not sure if his value is down a lot or if it's too high to the Jays but I'd prefer to keep Smith and Hoglund.


Kirk, Snead, Logue should have gotten this done, but then again maybe Kirk's value is down as well.

This trade is a big help. Would be even better if Chapman batted left but I guess you can't have everything. Should be at least a decent hitter (with potential, hopefully, to get back to what he was just a few years ago and be a really good one) and maybe the best defensive 3B on the planet. Trade price wasn't too steep as the Jays kept most of their really good prospects.

Thank you, Magpie, so not a big deal.

Maybe not a gap we need to pay a lot for and Schwarber would have been a lot of money.

This seems to suggest that we can have a DH slot without anyone needing to be assigned there. We can rotate our top position players there when we want to rest them.

The last 2 first round picks have now been traded prior to even getting a full season in the minors. Not a criticism, just unusual.

Marc Hulet made a good point. This deal clears space on the Jays 40 man roster. They could have lost players to waiver claims at the end of spring without this deal.

The team could still swing a Ketel Marte trade if they wanted to go that route.

Jays could look to trade a catcher for a pitcher or a left handed bat.

Or just use Kirk as your primary DH.

Looks like they wanted pitchers primarily. Pity about Hoglund but otherwise great to see the infield strengthened. I think Chapman’s bat will surprise..in a pleasant way. Also a pity about Schwarber but they’ll find an ok LH hitter.

Team looks very strong.

I can't see why you'd prefer to give away Pearson over hoglund - nate still has him beat in both floor and ceiling, and neither are the picture of health.

Hoglund has been healthy apart from TJ surgery. Pearson has had a range of health issues and he hasn't looked all that great in the majors. This could be a good consolidation year for him, though, where he potentially stays healthy and elevates his game.

Not always the best judge but A's fans almost universal hate this deal while Jays fans seem meh to positive, has to bode well for the Jays

Hoglund has same upside if not higher than Pearson. I think it was Law who ranked him as our best prospect. Didn't BA give him the highest possible grade of control, and recently he was hitting 96MPH which is close to where Pearson sits.


Control and off speed pitch is better than speed and lack of control.

Hoglund sits low 90s. He has a very good slider but likely not a Manoah-level one.

This is a good deal for the Jays. Losing Hoglund is disappointing but ultimately it's a deal the Jays had to make given their need at 3B. I've said for many years now that my preference for team building as always been older/veteran SP's mixed with young position players so I don't mind trading a good pitching prospect and keeping Moreno/Martinez/Groshans. As long as they are willing to spend on the Berrios, Gausman, and Kikuchi types (which they are), then it's likely the better way to build a sustainable winner.

The Jays have a real shot to win the division this year and for the next few years. One more bat, preferably a LH hitter (Conforto?), would be big.

Hoglund has been healthy apart from TJ surgery.

Aside from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the show?

TJ surgery recovery rates are good, but not perfect. And Nate Pearson also had a pretty clean bill of health before he'd thrown a professional pitch.

I think Hoglund is a great looking prospect, but it just seems wildly optimistic to assume any pitching prospect is going to avoid injury and have a perfectly linear, upwards development. Hoglund is all fantasy & projection right now, while Pearson is reality.

I don't love or hate this trade. I liked Hogland. Chapman looks like yet another guy who hits like Grichuk. How much of an upgrade is he over Espinal? Probably a similar OPS with better defense. So it's something. But now we'll never know how Vladdy would do at 3rd which I was really curious about and I think being there would make Vladdy happier. I think it's a marginal improvement with some downside. We'll see see how it goes I guess.

Two thumbs up - that the Jays potential rotation have contract stability mitigates the loss of Hoglund and also happy that Groshans staying put - too bad about Schwarber - how about Votto (57M including 2024 buyout) for Grichuk (20.67M) - saves the Reds over 36m and gives them someone to help replace Winker in the outfield - Votto may want his 2024 year picked up to move.

So what did Shapiro and Atkins get us in the post-season and how painful was the price? (*All assessments without unknown injury risks)
• Berrios locked up for the long term at a good price
• Gausman locked up for the medium-to-long term at a good price
• Kikuchi locked up for the medium term at a price that could be great or poor, depending on the upside from Pete Walker’s magic
• Chapman landed for one high-value prospect who was far from hitting the bigs, plus three decent to solid prospects who will make a real difference to Oakland this year but who were unlikely to do that for Toronto this year
• Garcia landed for a good price for two years
• Adding up to one of the best starting rotations in baseball, one of the better bullpens in baseball, and a replenished batting lineup where the loss of Semien’s production is made up for by Chapman plus a full year of Springer plus the continuing growth of Guerrero / Bichette etc. This means that we could repeat our #1 OPS ranking this year
• An improved defensive infield, with both Chapman and also Biggio back to his natural position

Can anybody quarrel with that record?

Plus, what prices did we not pay? We did not:
• Lose any of our top, close to MLB prospects (Martinez, Moreno, Groshans, Pearson) - not one!
• Block any of those top prospects with long-term deals if we prefer them to one of our current roster in a year or two (e.g., Ryu vs. Pearson; Chapman vs. Groshans). Indeed, those two swaps could really help our payroll in two years’ time
• Give up either of the trade picks we earned when Ray and Semien signed elsewhere
• Sign away so much long-term contract money that either Guerrero or Bichette might be too expensive to lock up

Will any of the other clubs be able to compete with this bravura performance?

Well, Chapman arrives as a solid enough complementary bat at the very least - except he's going from Oakland's Coliseum to Toronto's Dome. He's also going to an organization that has shown some ability in getting RH hitters to reduce their strikeouts.

And of course he'll be giving Scott Rolen an argument for the role of best defensive third baseman in franchise history. Chapman and Biggio/Espinal may only be a marginal upgrade on Biggio and Espinal, but once you've already made it to 90 wins most of your upgrades are often fairly marginal.

Fantastic trade! Chapman is arguably the best defensive 3B in the game, and certainly in the AL, and they kept their best prospects. The team is much better off with Espinal in the utility role. The Jays were a good team last year, but one thing they lacked was elite D really anywhere on the diamond, other than perhaps behind the dish.

It would obviously be great if they could still add a LH OF that can play CF, but if all they get from here are some depth pieces (an RP, a Dickerson type of player) they are pretty set. Can always pick up some more balance around the deadline.

Jays bought low on Chapman - I think they paid less for Chapman (who has had two 7plus war seasons) than the Braves paid for Matt Olson who is coming off a career year.

The Jays are capitalizing on some recency bias here.

2018 - MVP 7
2019 - MVP 6

That is an elite player. If Chapman was traded with 2 years of control before 2020, he would have commanded a monster return.

2020 and 2021 did happen, so yes, there is that floor. But holy crap what an upside.

For the record I love this deal. I am a big fan of Matt Chapman. I would just like it more if Pearson was included or Kirk instead of Hoglund.


"Hoglund is all fantasy & projection right now, while Pearson is reality."

Quite the opposite. He's upped his speed to 95MPH+ and has insane Maddux level control. He's had Tommy John. If that's the biggest risk that's quite normal now. He's the perfect piece to become our next ace in 3-4 years.

Pearson never had a clean bill of health, unless you include having a 3 inch screw in your elbow as normal.

https://www.thespec.com/sports/baseball/2019/03/07/blue-jays-prospect-nate-pearson-a-bionic-wunderkind.html

Not sure if it's been mentioned here, or was on MLBTR - the stellar 3B defense can maybe help Bo stay a bit further towards 2nd and/or mask any holes in his defense..

Another benefit of the trade is that it allows the Jays to take their time with Groshans and Martinez and not rush them to the majors to fill a void at third base.

Chapman's floor appears to be a league average bat with great defense, so that's probably a ~3.5 WAR type of player. However, his ceiling is an elite player, with two 6+ WAR seasons in his career. Maybe his hip injury has made the floor more likely than the ceiling moving forward, but that's still a huge upgrade over Espinal, and it's possible the bat might improve from 2020-21 with better health and/or adjustments.

the big question with Chapman, of course, is whether his hip injury has permanently impacted him.

As MLBtraderumors has noted, Chapman is now more than 18 months removed from major surgery which probably was partially responsible for a dip in his offense - I wasn't aware of his surgery, so now I'm even more bullish on the potential return of his bat.

Per Rosenthal: "Blue Jays have spoken to Guardians about trade for José Ramírez, with idea of playing Ramírez at 2B, sources tell @TheAthletic. Other teams showing interest in Ramírez as well. Still unlikely Guardians will move him. Ramírez under club control for two more seasons, combined $24M."

Not expecting that to happen, but an infield of Chapman-Bichette-Ramirez-Vlad would be kinda good.

I'll be shocked if Hoglund this year is able to match what Pearson did at age 22:

Pearson 2019:

A+: 6gs, 46.7k%, 4.0bb%, 0.86era, 1.64fip, 1.07xfip
AA: 16gs, 28.3k%, 8.6bb%, 2.59era, 2.90fip, 3.12xfip
AAA: 3gs, 21.7k%, 4.3bb%, 3.00era, 4.07fip, 4.45xfip

The trade improves the team's infield depth as well. Espinal would be available to cover 3B/SS/2B if needed.

I would probably do Moreno for Ramirez.

Moreno is very good but would still be fortunate to turn out as well as Ramirez has.

I'm happy now to not go all in for Freeman or Ramirez. As others have pointed out, we finally have stars at MLB level and solid pieces developing in the minors. Keep it this way, please.

I would trade from our MLB roster to bolster our team now or cheaper free agency. Examples:

Sign Conforto
Trade for Votto


At the trade deadline we can trade for an elite pitcher like the Dodgers did with Scherzer last year.

Fangraphs released their playoff projections yesterday with the Jays having the best odds in the AL, and only the Dodgers better overall. This move will only help.

I like that the Jays didn't throw 4/80 at Schwarber. That would have been too much for a poor defender with a career 118 wRC+.

If this Cleveland rumour is true (even if not likely to materialize), you have to love the news that the Jays are not content with a huge off-season. They are exploring what they could do to achieve a humongous one!

Last year we had a nice offseason but still came up blatanttly short in the pitching department, and had to fill that hole at the trade deadline..... when it was already too late.

We've had another nice offseason this year, but we again have a blatant hole that needs filling - another legit big bat - and it would be pretty unfortunate to once again go into next season knowing that we need a clear upgrade there.

This is a great trade. Bought low on two seasons of a guy whose floor is probably avg bat/best defensive 3B in MLB. Immediately pushes Biggio to 2B and Espinal to UT, where they should be able to impact much more positively. Didn't give up any of our top position player prospects.

Atkins and Co. deserve a heck of a lot of credit for the trades and signings they've made the last couple of years. This team has a great shot at the Division.

It’s hard to argue with the deal from a Jays perspective. It accomplishes one key goal which is to get everyone in the infield into their proper positions and roles. I think that’s important. The lineup still really needs some balancing though. The As are taking a huge gamble on Hogland, because the rest of the package is, how should I say this politely?, light?

I could see a scenario where the Jays manage to acquire Ramirez and hold
on to Moreno and Orelvis. Trade Groshans, Kirk, Gurriel, and a decent fourth player like Tiedemann or Lopez.

When it comes to free agents we assume that they want to come here. I think this is true for Toronto and true for Seattle. So, you have to either overspend, or acquire via trade.

I am excited. Another 30 hr bat. I also think Biggio at 2b all year will help him. If not, there is always the trading deadline.

For the outfield\Left handed bat, I think the Jays need to play who they got. I think the market is not there for Gurriel\Grichuk. Might as well keep them and see if they can increase their trade value.

There are still alot of moving peices available, but other than a bullpen arm, I have to believe the Jays are done.

I do find the Freeman\Correa\Bryant\Story sweepstakes interesting. There are less and less places for them to go. I think the Yankees are done now too.

I think Freeman will be at somewhere off the radar. He would be a franchise changing addition in Seattle.

"I could see a scenario where the Jays manage to acquire Ramirez and hold
on to Moreno and Orelvis. Trade Groshans, Kirk, Gurriel, and a decent fourth player like Tiedemann or Lopez."

I think you're onto something but it would have to have Pearson added to your list and take out Gurriel or Groshans.

So Pearson, Kirk, Groshans and decent fourth player like Tiedemann or Lopez. That'll get it done.

Then you have Groshans, Orelvis and Moreno as the core of the "next wave" for when Vlad and Bo may leave (if they aren't resigned) and as other players like Ryu, Kikuchi, Hernandez, etc come off the books.

" I think Freeman will be at somewhere off the radar."

Nah, I think it will be the Dodgers. Just hope to God it isn't the Red Sox. The Rays would be off the radar in my opinion. Also I don't believe in the narrative that free agents don't want to come to Toronto. For Kevin Gausman, it was the great reputation that Pete Walker has working with pitchers that swayed him to come here.

Thumbs up on the Chapman trade, too. Hoglund is the only player I mind giving up and Chapman is saying he's feeling the healthiest he's ever been so his batting may improve at the Roger's Center.

So, who will be the 13th position player? Will the Jays start Kirk at AAA and look for a left-handed bat for the bench?

I can’t see them emptying another whack of prospects for Ramirez at this point. They value the farm system and may well be looking for ways to replenish it. Signing Conforto would provide a lefty bat and then they can trade Kirk and Gurriel for prospect pitchers and outfielders to replenish the system, or hold Kirk for a while to see if they can increase his value.

I think this is one of those trades that is good for both teams. The Jays gave up quite a bit -- Hoglund was a real prize in the draft last year, and Smith has the potential to be a very good regular. They are going for it and play in the AL East, so this deal makes sense. It fills a big hold immediately, although it weakens the pipeline considerably. I saw Hoglund as their only front-line SP prospect.

Oakland was faced with the probability of Chapman leaving in two years and some non-trivial downside risk that his performance of the last two years continues. They spread that risk out over multiple players and many potential years of control. This deal could turn out very well for them.

When Gurriel is hot, he wins almost wins games single handed. I have a hard time believing that he is easily replaced.

I think Biggio needs one more try at 2nd. Mind you, I wonder if Trevor Story would like to be this year's Semian? :)

Checking Fangraphs for 2022 projections. Espinal is around .8 for 400 plus at bats. Biggio is at 2 for almost 500 at-bats. Lets say thats around 1.6 if they combined to play third for an average season.

Chapman is at 4.5. So the Jays pick up around 3 wins with this trade.

The next couple of years is the time for the Jays to go for it (this is basically 1992-93 for the current version of the Jays). You never know what the team is going to look like in a few years, especially the pitching staff. The Jays pretty much had to make a move like this, at a minimum.

I believe Chapman will earn about $10mil in Arb. So the payroll seems fine.

We have a lot of potential 30Hr players in the lineup.

If Chapman leaves as a FA we probably get a draft pick. I am not sure about this.

From Oakland we got Donaldson and Semien. Chapman may also be good. Actually Chapman is good but does not fit into Oakland's budget.

I never understood why SPs are considered so much better than relievers. Zeuch, Hatch, Kay and Thornton compared to Romano, T Richards or D Phelps. A lot of pitchers fail. I suppose I value the successful more than the failed ones.

Hoglund could be good/great. Time will tell.

"I never understood why SPs are considered so much better than relievers"

Probably because they pitch more innings.

Thanks mathesond. I did know that.

However there are many things that I don't know. I would have been happy if Matt Boyd and Kendell Graveman had become good relievers for the Jays. They over performed which is good for them. Neither was the center piece in the trades they were involved in.

Sorry for changing the topic SP vs RP. Morrow and Cecil became good relievers. Better relievers would have helped Montoyo last year. P Walker could not fix the pen.

Well, guess Oakland is our farm team now? First Donaldson, then Semien, now Chapman (wonder if he likes ice cream).

This is the trade I was hoping for. Chapman was a 7+ WAR guy twice - 2018/19. His floor appears to be around 3.5 WAR (last year). Basically his floor is Espinal's ceiling. ZIPs has him projected at 4.5 for next year with a 116 wRC+ which is damn fine. Compare to the list of free agent hitters above I listed and you'll see he is the 2nd best choice for WAR vs any of them. The best was Correa at 5.2 (but requiring a $300+ 10+ year deal), then Freeman at 4.0 (going into his 32 and beyond years needing a 6 year deal).

Now the cost... very different from anything I would've expected in Gunnar Hoglund, Kevin Smith, Zach Logue, Kirby Snead. Snead is a throw in imo. Smith I lost faith in as anything but a backup last year durig his trial here, Logue is interesting but entering his age 26 season with 92 2/3 IP in AAA - he had an impressive year in 2021 but I wouldn't bet high on a guy who hadn't reached the majors by age 26. The big piece is obviously Gunnar Hoglund - entering his age 22 season (geez, I have a daughter older than him) he was excellent in the NCAA but hasn't thrown a pitch as a pro yet. In many respects it is like trading a draft pick - a high one, but a total wild card. None are on MLB's top 100 prospect list, Kevin Smith made Keith Law's top 100 at #89 but that's it. BA/FanGraphs/BP had none of these guys on their top 100's. So the Jays got an all-star 3B who has had 7+ WAR pre-COVID for a package of non-top 100 prospects. Wow.

So probably one more move to come - getting a LH hitter who can play the OF ideally, most likely via a trade involving our RH OF'ers and a prospect or two. Freeman or Votto still would be nice but much more unlikely now I figure as that would certainly lock up DH/1B between one of them and Vlad - Votto's 2-3 year deal fits in but he has that no-trade clause and seems to love Cincinnati.

So new lineup... project WAR (ZiPS) in brackets

• C: Jansen (1.8)/Kirk (1.6)/McGuire (0.7) - some combo of them.
• 1B: Vlad (5.7)
• 2B: Biggio (2.0)/Espinal (0.7)
• 3B: Chapman (4.5)
• SS: Bo (5.2)
• LF: Gurriel (1.8)
• CF: Springer (3.3)
• RF: Hernandez (2.0)
• DH: rotation of Vlad/Springer/Hernandez/Bo/Kirk
• OF: Grichuk (1.0) (plays when an OF is DH'ing or Gurriel at 1B with Vlad DH)
• UT: ???

Net WAR of 30.3 - last year the offense was a net of 30.5 fWAR so projection matches last years actual almost dead on before factoring in any other new players. Only Houston had more offensive WAR last year (SF & TB at 30.0, Houston 33.9).

11-12 hitters there depending on 2 or 3 catchers. Leaving 1-2 slots open depending. A pure DH could fit in, with Kirk or another catcher being traded as part of a package to get a better LH bat, then sign a career utility infielder or use Mallex Smith as your backup OF (pure speed guy). Lots of possibilities still, hard to guess what comes next but I'm betting on a LH bat of some kind showing up.
Pitchers...

• Rotation: Gausman (3.3), Berrios (3.1), Ryu (2.6), Manoah (2.1), Kikuchi (1.8)
• Bullpen: Stripling (0.9), Richards (0.8), Borucki (0.7), Romano (0.6), Mayza (0.6), Cimber (0.4), Phelps (0.2), Merryweather (0.1)
• Backup starters: Hatch (0.6), Pearson (0.5), Thornton (0.6), Kay (0.2)
• Traded: Logue (0.7), Snead (0.3)

So WAR there is 12.9 starters, 4.3 bullpen, 1.9 6/7/8/9 starters, just 1.0 WAR traded away. Net for starters/pen is 17.2. Last year the Jays pitchers produced 14.6

So the net from everything done this winter, based on projections for 2022 vs reality for 2021, is 2022: 47.5 2021: 45.1 - so a net gain of 2.4 wins so far. Doesn't sound like much but also look at low the projections for Gurriel and Hernandez are. Clearly room for improvement there. A shame Suzuki ended up costing $100 mil over 5 years - I get why the Jays didn't want to risk that much on a guy coming from Japan given the spotty history of guys coming over plus his no-trade clause which I know the Jays see as a no go.

Jays might only do minor shifts now, getting someone like Dickerson in as a LH bat or something. But I wouldn't be shocked if another shoe is going to drop at some point. I can't imagine they'd get Ramirez for 2B (lots of prospect cost there for sure but 5.9 fWAR projection would shift the Jays well into the 90's for win potential depending on what goes the other way). My gut says the Jays get another OF and find a home for one or two of Hernandez/Gurriel/Grichuk.

The more I look at these lists the more I think one of or a mix of Biggio, Hernandez Kirk and Gurriel will be traded soon for a LH bat. Add Pearson to a mix of above and you can get Ramirez and become the favourite to win the World Series.

So gains and losses so far... Gains...

• Hitters: Matt Chapman
• Starters: Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi
• Relievers: Yimi Garcia, Bryan Baker, Shaun Anderson
• Draft picks: 2 between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Losses...

• Hitters: Corey Dickerson, Marcus Semien, Breyvic Valera, Kevin Smith, Jarrod Dyson
• Starters: Steven Matz, Robbie Ray, Zach Logue, Gunnar Hoglund
• Relievers: Joakim Soria, Kirby Yates, Kirby Snead

A few more minor guys lost too. Not a bad winter imo. Ray & Matz hurt to lose from a today POV but Gausman and Kikuchi should pretty much match them. Semien hurt to lose, but Chapman should be an equivalent going forward (unlikely to match Semien's near MVP year in 2021 but then again neither is Semien). Gunnar Hoglund is the only prospect lost that might bite the Jays hard later (I see Noah Syndergaard potential), Logue might be like Kendall Graveman (nice to have kept, but hardly a killer to include). The 2 draft picks are of some value, but not great value. They'll be around the 70th pick (only 3 70th overall picks have ever had 10+ WAR) which can produce quality but odds are it'll just be more trading chips - I'd rather those as being similar to Logue in value but far below Hoglund. Of course, Bo Bichette was a 66th overall pick in 2016 so the old youneverknow applies.

John

The Jays signed RP Andrew Vasquez to a major league deal too.

Thanks Ducey - always a few transactions missed. He lands under the 'minor transactions' category though with his 6 2/3 ML innings, 61 ERA+. His K/9 was amazing last year and if for real he could be a part of the pen.

For other potential trades... wonder what Arizona would want for Ketel Marte - a CF/2B who had a 143 OPS+ last year and is a switch hitter (112 OPS+ lifetime) signed for a great deal ($8.4 mil in 2022, $8 mil option 2023, $10 mil option 2024). He could take over a corner and cover CF when Springer needs a day off. But I'm certain the cost would be nuts in prospects. Ah well.

Before the Chapman deal the rumors were either Freeman or Schwarber.

Well, Chapman isn't as good a pickup as Freeman but way better than Schwarber, so I am happy.

Greinke signs with the Royals for $13 mil. Freeman still hanging around and now some are thinking his agent pushed it too far as the Yankees, Atlanta, and Jays all seem to have dropped out of the chase for his services. Dodgers, Red Sox, Rays, and Padres are left. SD appears desperate to move Eric Hosmer (LH 1B in line for $60 mil over the next 4 seasons) to create room first - odds are they'd need to bribe someone with prospects to clear him out. Wonder if they'd take Grichuk and give the Jays someone useful in the future with him? Hmmm...

Freeman is probably headed to LAD right now. The Rays I'd rank as the dark horse - as they have the cash if they choose to spend it. I really hope he doesn't end up in Boston though.

Bryan Baker belongs in the loss column, John. He was claimed on waivers by Baltimore in November.

Bryan Baker isn't a measurable loss.

Ray & Matz hurt to lose from a today POV but Gausman and Kikuchi should pretty much match them.

Pretty unlikely that Gausman and Kikuchi can match a Cy Young year from Ray and a career year from Matz.
However, having Berrios and Manoah for a whole year could pick up the difference and then some.

The 2 draft picks are of some value, but not great value. They'll be around the 70th pick (only 3 70th overall picks have ever had 10+ WAR) which can produce quality but odds are it'll just be more trading chips.

Freedie Freeman was drafted 78th overall.

The Jays have lost their first and second round picks from last year, so those 2 draft picks could turn out to be very important.

7/$182m for Bryant. Wow. The Chapman trade looks even better now.

SD appears desperate to move Eric Hosmer (LH 1B in line for $60 mil over the next 4 seasons) to create room first - odds are they'd need to bribe someone with prospects to clear him out. Wonder if they'd take Grichuk and give the Jays someone useful in the future with him? Hmmm... I looked at that. Part of the problem is the structure of the contract. Hosmer gets $22M this year and then $13 M for the next 3. However, he can opt out after this year. So if the Jays trade for him they dont know if they are getting 1 yr or 4. Grichuk has this year and next at $10 M per. Hosmer is just a 1 WAR player who will jam up 1B/ DH. It doesnt seem like a good fit at all unless SD takes a lot of salary and throws in maybe a bunch of international signing room or a very good prospect.

Yup. I would want SD do pay all, send a player and then just release Hosmer.
I cannot believe Bryant got 182 over 7.  Jays must've had some clue about that and noped out.If he's healthy he could be massive for the life of that contract... he'll only be 36 apparently for the last year.I just don't really understand that signing with no real team around him. There's no farm to build around.
Just. That franchise is awfully  run.

Well, Meadows is available. Maybe the Jays can get the Twins to acquire him than trade him back here.

LH bats to dream on
... Joey Votto a nice story from Toronto, 2 year window commitment plus good role model/tutor, buy out 3rd yr and commit to a trade back to Cincy

... Robinson Cano from the Mets, possible horror story but probably cheap (at least prospect wise) ... I don't know what his status is but he's not on the 40 man roster and didn't the Jays just sign his younger brother

... Ketel Marte from Arizona, Vlad's cousin-in-law, 2nd base/CF, 28 yr old .377 ob%, .900 OPS ... probably 2 plus prospects (Kirk Biggio Grichuk Pearson) but still not as expensive as Ramirez

Baerga saying big day for jays tomorrow.

Baerga has a strong track record (Semien, Springer, other predictions)...if Freeman is signing in LA then what could the big day be for the Jays tomorrow?

Is Baerga's latest tease about Ramirez on his Instagram page? My Spanish isn't what it used to be.

He's saying tomorrow is a big day and that there's less than 15% chance Ramirez stays with Indians. He thinks Jays will send Biggio to CLE and the package wont be as big as everyone thinks.

Source: random untrustworthy people translating on twitter.

Dodgers and Freeman making progress on 6 year $160 million dollar deal. That's a real good price for that caliber of player that should age well.

6 years $162 mil not bad for Freeman, he got that critical 6th year he wanted. Age 32-37 (2022-2027). ZiPS has him at 4.0 for 2022, 3.4 for 2023, 2.8 in 2024. So dropping by 0.6 per year so lets be generous and just go half of that drop per year after so 2.5, 2.2, 1.9 for the last 3 years = 16.8 WAR or $9.5 mil per WAR. Not bad, fairly reasonable. If he drops by 0.6 instead in each year then those last 3 become 2.2, 1.6, 1.0 for a total of 15 or $10.8 mil per WAR. Still not crazy but not a good deal. Basically the Dodgers are counting on Freeman being better going forward than history would suggest for a 1B in his age 32-37 seasons.

Some recent top 1B for 32-37 - Fred McGriff: 12.7 WAR, Eddie Murray 14.4, Albert Pujols 12.9, Jeff Bagwell 23.0, Frank Thomas 15.5, Carlos Delgado 10.5, John Olerud 14.6 (ended at 36), Miguel Cabrera 9.4, Todd Helton 13.5, Joey Votto 20.8, Mark Teixeira 6.5, Jim Thome 18.6
Steroid assisted: Mark McGwire 28.8, Rafael Palmeiro 26.8, Jason Giambi 15.0

Interesting to look at. So for Freeman to be worth it he need to be a 15+ WAR guy like Thome, Votto, Thomas, Bagwell, and the PED crew. The nightmare is if he is like Cabrera, Delgado, Teixeira (near 10 WAR). The more I look the happier I am with the direction the Jays ended up going.

For defense, Fangraphs does allow for some all-time sorting. Jays defense career as a Jay - best is 99.9 for Fernandez, 80's for Barfield and White, Whitt at 79 (!), Alex Gonzalez #1 at 65.5, Martin at 55.5 covers all the 50+ guys. Whitt surprised me as I don't recall him being rated high on defense when he played. Only 22 guys cracked 20. Chapman so far in his career is at 55.4 in 5 seasons 573 games or 14.5 per 150 games. At that pace he'd move into the top 20 in Jays history in just his 2 seasons pre-free agency (20th is Aaron Hill at 21.9). Kelly Gruber was the best for primary 3B at 21.6, Garth Iorg who also spent tons of time at 2B was at 28.9. So 2 seasons for Chapman and he'd be #1 for all 3B in Jays history with his normal level. Scary. Rolen had 9.8 in his brief 203 games here. Donaldson 14.4 in his 462.

Basically we're going to see defense at 3B like we've never seen in Jays history in 2022 and 2023. Wow. Better than I dared dream. Sweet. Suddenly Ryu and Kikuchi will be looking a LOT better - links are to maps of balls in play vs them (I think - haven't used that site before but dang is it pretty).

One more chart - with all 5 starters in it. Just for 2021.

The price is Semien is gone at 2b (+10) replaced by Biggio (around a 0) and Espinal (no time at 2B yet in the majors). Unless of course that crazy rumor about Ramirez happens, then lord knows what to expect at 2B (worth 32.3 on defense over 980 games = 4.9 per 150 games at 3B mainly). Of course, if the Jays pull that off then I think we'll all just sit back and enjoy watching other teams be pummeled to death in 10-whatever score games.

Both Schwarber and Freeman ended up with contracts that are overpay.
It's similar to when the Jays were chasing Fowler.
Those left bats always seem to fetch a premium.

A lot of hype in 2013 that did not translate into success.

Depth is Atkins strong suit. When Tulo and Travis were injured in 2017 Goins had to play everyday. Our fragile players seem to be relievers Borucki and Merryweather as well as Pearson. Atkins has depth to cover that. Springer, Biggio and others in 2021 was covered by the career years of a few players. The pen has more reliable arms now on paper anyway. Lets see what happens.

Great trade, exactly the right type of move to be making for this roster. I LOL'd at the comment that Chapman is a marginal improvement... have you seen Hyun Jin Ryu's groundball heat map??

I'm happy for Kevin Smith, he deserves a real shot in the bigs.

Chapman's batting line away from home in 2021: .234/.330/.461. On the other hand, his career home and away splits are equal. On the other hand, his career line is .243/.330/.478. He's going to be huge. This generation's Devon White.

Looking forward to see where this pattern goes...

3B Eric Hinske -> Oakland to Toronto -> ROY

3B Josh Donaldson -> Oakland to Toronto -> MVP

3B Matt Chapman-> Oakland to Toronto -> ???

You forgot Semien and forgot that Kikuchi is also a lefty who should have a lot of rights pulling to Chapman.

" I LOL'd at the comment that Chapman is a marginal improvement."

ZIPS has Chapman at 4.5 WAR and Espinal at 0.7. Hard to upgrade bigger than that. It's a huge improvement. Let's also not forget that Chapman had 2 seasons of over 6 WAR. Since 2018 when he played his first full season, he's been the 10th most valuable position player in baseball in between Soto and Story.

Defensive ability is understated in my opinion. Chapman saves a lot of runs every year with his glove. The Jays need more of that, IMO.

If the jays land Ramirez, it is almost cheating then. Other than an upgrade for the DH position, and maybe another bullpen arm, there is really not much more they can do to improve without spending alot of money\prospects and getting marginal upgrades.

brought a big smile to my face ... John, Great Line ! ... (if the Jays get Ramirez) ... " I think we'll all just sit back and enjoy watching other teams be pummeled to death in 10-whatever score games"

Ah ... Ain't baseball spring training Grrreat !!! ___ The sun is out ... snow is melting ... it's warming up ... Covid numbers declining ... delusional dreaming !!! ___ still, I raise a metaphysical glass of single malt and toast Mylegacy's perpetual optimism

Lots of free games on MLB.TV including the Jays and Phillies on Sat.

https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/2022/03/17

Twitter gossip says Cleveland asked for Manoah, Moreno, and Orelvis for Ramirez.

Pretty sure that's not going to happen.

I think we can close the books on a Ramirez acquisition. With Chapman, Bo, Vlad and Teoscar - there is nowhere for Ramirez to play. I don't think he would play DH if Teoscar is traded. He isn't a 1B and he won't play 3B or SS or 2B so...can we put this one to bed as Bauxites?

Side Note: I find Biggio's upside tantalizing with the limit of the shift. Does anyone know what the actual rule change is on the shift and how it will be policed? I've only heard people saying the shift is going to be limited but nothing official about it.

Don't think Jays need to make a move now. Yes, a LH DH/OF would be nice but Jays are probably best team in AL as is. Kirk/Springer/Biggio (playing Grichuk/Espinal as D) as DH is good enough for a stacked offense.

I heard an interview with A Friedman of LAD. He lost C Seager and had not yet signed Freeman so he chose to say nothing about Freeman other that he is a V good player. Comparing Seager and Freeman you have 10 vs 6 years of commitment before financial "freedom". I think that is huge!

I believe Shapiro and Atkins have figured out something. A V good player for 2 cheap years like Chapman/Ramirez makes a good team better for the 2 years most likely. At $10 mil/yr is cheap or maybe not depending on opinions. 1 year of Semien or Kershaw at $17-18 mil is more expensive than 2 years of Chapman/Ramirez for $25 mil each for 2 years. Under the new agreement all 4 should get a draft pick upon leaving. But I am not sure.

Looking at the recent past the Jays gave up a lot F Barreto for Donaldson. Also a lot G Hoglund for Chapman. I understand fretting about this because I did. I did not fret when we cut G Urschela. Some may actually have hurt to lose like Syndergaard and Stroman. It seems that I have seen enough drafts and me prospect gushing and top 100 lists to realize that my high hopes in the past were wrong. But will still do it I figure.

However each year we have a draft. Looking at AA's drafts years 1-3 and then 4-6. These are 3 year segments. I am hoping for a total of 6-10 good players over the 6 years. Year 1-3 drafts Syndergaard, Sanchez (S Nolin, S Dyson), Pillar, D Norris ( Musgrove, DeScalafani), Stroman & Borucki. Year 4-6 drafts Jansen, Mayza, J Davis, R Tellez (Boyd, C Greene, K Graveman. Romano (Hoffman, SRF). T Saucedo. There was a turnover of personnel. Stroman had to be traded and others left for other reasons. I cee a pretty good and deep rotation in those 6 drafts. But no hitters.

On paper the Jays offense is worse than last year's. Last year they were right near the top offensively but in a pack of good offensive teams. This year they'd likely be a bit lower.

imo it would be pretty half assed to not make an easy offensive upgrade in a slot like DH.

Ugly, we will have Springer all season.

Moreno will be up.

Chapman can eat into Semien's career year.

we'll have significant injuries again this year, though, whether its springer or other guys.

you're right that a kid like Moreno could plausibly come up and be a fulltime impact bat right away but i don't think we can count on that.

Re: Shift Rules. The new rules being used in A/AA this season - and presumably in MLB next season - have two components. #1) Teams must have at least four players on the infield dirt - and not in shallow outfield. 2) Teams must have at least two infielders on either side of second base.

For Biggio, this could be very significant. For example, the Rays would sometimes align against him with four deep outfielders, two corner infielders, and a "rover" in shallow right-field. Next season, two of these fielders will need to move to the infield, and one will need to stay on the left-side... leaving three (instead of five) outfielders to defend all the open space.

uglyone - check my quick WAR check - the Jays lineup (including defense/offense) works out to 30.3 WAR vs last years 2nd best in the majors 30.5 The spread is minimal. Basically the only lineup change vs last year is Chapman vs Semien. Projected wRC+ for Chapman is 116, for Semien 127 - a spread but not an insane one. Biggio covers that on his own with the expected rebound - 84 last year vs projected 99 (was over 110 both years before last so not an unreasonable expectation). Of course there will be lots of fluctuations and I'm going to have to do some real lineup digging for a new thread. But bottom line is the Jays offense shouldn't be worse than last year unless someone does a Tellez like crash in the lineup (132 in 2020 to 62 in 2021 while here, 89 overall last year).

yeah John - Chapman makes up for semien's WAR loss quite well, but that comes mostly via defensive improvements, while the offense takes a hit.

as of now our offense only has one true dependable big bat, though it has very good depth.

one more legit big bat and we can finally go into a season without worrying about any significant holes.

UO's point has some merit. I see it as addressing depth due to injuries in some way.

But DH upgrade? How and who? Players rotated into the DH slot last year. Springer, Vlad... Atkins will expect injuries like Springer and days off from the field like Vlad. Hardly ever we had a weak DH last year I think.

Injuries will happen very likely. An injured Jansen means Kirk does not DH I suppose. Lucky we have Moreno as a great replacement on paper.

I am too impressed with Atkins so far so I expect that he has thought about everything. I cannot come up with anything.

Vlad: “Last year was the trailer. Now you guys are going to see the movie.”

In 2021, Toronto DHs hit .221/.305/.401 with 24 HRs - it was one of the weakest spots in the order. Only third base was worse (yes, even the catchers were better) and they seem to have addressed the third base issue.

A bleacher report rating of the AL East post trades that puts the Jays first https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10029958-power-ranking-the-al-east-race-amid-a-flurry-of-trades-free-agent-signings

But what I loved best was the shade at the end of the article:

The Baltimore Orioles are also a professional baseball team that plays in the American League East. For a change, they hope to lose fewer than 100 games in 2022.

I think Kirk could be a pretty good DH a lot of the time. The team does need a good left-handed bat, though.

I can't see this years offense being a downgrade at all.
1. Everyone is 1 year older
2. Springer should be healthy at some point
3. I have high hopes for Biggio still.
4. Home games are in Toronto and there will be fans!
5. We still have the trading deadline. If the Jays need a DH or a 2b, then they can do a trade. They have some pieces where they can do that.

I would love to see some more depth. Correct me if I am wrong. The only team that I see that has a deeper lineup than the Jays is the Dodgers.

Plus, we are only talking offense. IMO, if the Jays offense was in the middle of the pack, they could still make the playoffs with that pitching staff. It is the best I have seen for a long time.

So now we know what we know about Chapman, could we re-visit the Ketel Marte idea? I wasn’t keen on him as an EITHER-OR, but could he be an AND? He brings positional strength in both 2B and CF, roles we could usefully shore up. He is a switch-hitter (yay)! And he does not take up a DH spot, which we can keep for players rotating through.

The downsides? Well, he might be more costly in prospects than we have stomach for, having given up a few. If we trade Biggio for him (among se others), we don’t net out an added LHH, just a better one. We’d also need to find a new home for Grichuk.

I guess it would all depend on the price…

Thanks for the DH info Magpie.

Was it Rowdy Tellez than was the weak link in the DH poor performance? Probably was. He had a bad year.

Rowdy, Kirk and Dickerson in the DH slot I think.

could we re-visit the Ketel Marte idea?

I dunno, although it's very possible that the Brandon Drury experience has made me wary of everyone who established themselves out in the Arizona desert. Away from Phoenix, Marte has hit .278/.335/.444. Biggio was better than that in 2019-20 (he was, of course, quite a bit worse last year.) Marte's big seasons in 2019 and 2021 were driven in part by his BAVG, which was in turn driven by the goddess of BABiP turning her smiling face his way. But she's a fickle one.

Villar to the Cubs. C Dickerson to the Cardinals.

Was it Rowdy Tellez than was the weak link in the DH poor performance?

The biggest culprit was George Springer who started the most games at DH (38) and didn't hit much while doing so (.212/.320/.411). Vlad was the next most used DH (28 games) and he was okay, just not as good as when he was playing the field.

But Rowdy was pretty bad too in his 19 games. Gurriel was awful in his 14 games. Grichuk was okay in 12 games, and Hernandez was sensational in 11 games.

Thanks Magpie. If Atkins does not address this AND we get the same results then it is a pattern. Get the injured player's bat (Springer) in the lineup to keep him happy. But he hits badly.

Jays had highest OPS in majors last year. Fangraphs projects them as 2nd best offense this year. If they can add to the team to get better, great, but the Jays offense is a strength. They don't need to improve it to win.

When Springer was DHing after his knee injury, he barely even looked like he could stand, never mind swing a bat properly. And four of Gurriel's games at DH came at the end of the season, when he was trying to hit with stitches in his hand and he went 0-16.

There's probably a lesson somewhere in there.

the Jays offense is a strength. They don't need to improve it to win.

On the one hand... true. They have a good offense, third in the league in runs scored last year (although two months in Dunedin didn't exactly hurt.) Anyway, it's definitely not a weakness.

On the other hand... when you already have a good team, with no apparent glaring weaknesses (I will cast a wary eye on the bullpen), you improve wherever you can improve. I'm old, so I think of 1993, when they needed pitching. They couldn't get pitching, so they got Rickey Henderson instead.

Incidentally, Eephus reports that he's been watching Matt Chapman highlight videos and enjoying it immensely. So I watched some myself. Man, but he reminds me of Graig Nettles in the field. (I told you, I'm old!) Plays deep like Nettles, very economical in his movements, no wasted actions. Probably easier to get along with...

They don't need to improve it to win.

They don’t need to, of course not… but it’s low-hanging fruit! As the roster shapes up today Randal Grichuk will be an everyday player and a 4-man bench will include Mallex Smith and Otto Lopez.

My guess is that the front office is looking at possible big additions via trade now, and if they don’t find a fit they like then they’ll make a more minor addition late in spring training. That will give them a chance to assess whether any of the in-house options are worth some significant run.

(It’s very much a long shot, but I’d love to see Mallex Smith make an incredible comeback and take all of Grichuk’s playing time.)

If you slot in Kirk at DH then the current bench is Grichuk, Espinal, McGuire, and Lopez/Palacios.

"On the other hand... when you already have a good team, with no apparent glaring weaknesses (I will cast a wary eye on the bullpen), you improve wherever you can improve."

Absolutely they should improve if it makes sense but they also shouldn't be forcing anything.

So the 1st game is already here. Twins - Red Sox ongoing.

If you slot in Kirk at DH then the current bench is Grichuk, Espinal, McGuire, and Lopez/Palacios.

It’s going to take an injury for McGuire to make the roster.

Sale being out with a rib fracture is going to hurt Boston's chances this year.

"the Jays offense is a strength. They don't need to improve it to win."

Why wouldn't we want to improve it?

One more chart - with all 5 starters in it. Just for 2021.

Can someone tell me how to read that chart / graph? I keep trying to make sense of the picture, and it just looks like a bunch of different color dots around 2B / 1B superimposed on a partial infield diagram? I don't even see 3B in that diagram. As far the numbers, it seems we had 7 OAA (outs above average) from 3B? How is Chapman supposed to affect that? Or is that projected? If so, how does it compare to last year? This is one of those "not obvious at first glance" stats for me..

Of course Jays should want to improve but there's a huge difference between staying the course and waiting to see if you can improve versus needing to get someone to improve. Jays are fine as is. No weaknesses except who knows with pens ever..

As a wise man once said, everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the face. Once they start playing the games, we shall see. Whatever we see.

What does "fine" mean?

Why is "fine" a satisfactory goal?

They could hang on to McGuire until a catcher on another team gets injured.
Hopefully, everyone is over his ... issue.

If Moreno is the catcher of the future, is Jansen the backup?

For the DH, it's mostly going to be an outfielder.
Kirk was good against lefties, but you can play Grichuk and DH any of the other 3.

BTW, 2 new starting pitchers to learn.

Jays have a top-3 offense in baseball. That's fine. And yes, getting a top-3 offense on baseball is a satisfactory goal. I'll be happy if they make more loves but I am confident the team won't make desperate moves.

I can see this years offense being a downgrade.
1. Everyone is 1 year older (Most player decline year over year, even the young ones.)
2. Somebody will get injured. It's more a matter of how good the backups are and they might not be very good.
3. Biggio will probably be better, but Espinal will have a hard time producing 2.5 WAR again.
4. Home games in Toronto! Dunedin and Buffalo were extreme hitters parks.

The pitching should be a huge upgrade.

Now let's just get to opening day in one piece.

"Why wouldn't we want to improve it?"

1. Costs too much. Handcuffs the team from signing future free agents
2. Trade return would leave the cupboard bare. It seems to be a real sellers market this year.
3. The free agent we want, does not want to come to Toronto.

vs_fan17- yeah, that is confusing at times - it is showing where balls were hit vs them the bigger the squares the more balls were hit to that area. Colours indicate Outs Above (or Below) average - blue = very bad, red = very good. You can see the effect of extreme shifts via the attempts in shallow right by guys playing second base but in the outfield. There is a fair amount of red around 3B - probably all from Espinal who is an excellent defensive player (plus whoever was there for the 2 new guys last year). I suspect we'll see more red at 2B and SS thanks to Chapman indirectly - Bo playing more up the middle and Espinal at 2B more often. Look at Oakland's chart, the the Jays chart to get an idea. Some very dark blue at SS (Bo) and some blue around 3B (probably when Biggio was there). But Oakland? I don't see Blue at 3B, some at SS and 2B but not as much as the Jays had.

Defense is like pitching staffs - adding a strong player can make the rest look better too by allowing them to be used better. It'll be interesting to see how things go this year with that improvement. Should also help Vlad as he might not need to do the splits so much :)

Ok, so if I squint, and after you pointed out where to look for 3B, I guess I can sort of figure it out now?

Ah, damn. It's a firefox thing - chrome shows it properly and it makes perfect sense. I hate that firefox is no longer considered relevant enough to test on..
Try it on firefox and see why I was confused :-) It zooms in the background graphic to only show 2B, 1B, pitcher's mound and almost to home, and then the blobs are distributed around 1B and 2B. It looked like it was only data for balls hits to 2B and 1B.. So I was wondering where you were getting 3B data from on that diagram..

Scott
I am much more optimistic - I can see this year’s offence being a significant UPGRADE (both absolutely and relative to the rest of the league):
• Sorry, but most young players don’t typically deteriorate - for that to be true, most players would have to peak in their first full year and get worse thereafter(!) This young team has plenty of growth potential
• A trio of core players should bounce back from last year for reasons specific to them - Springer, with a full season; Chapman after full recovery from surgery and Biggio, now back in his preferred position
• The Jays have several hitters who are dedicated to advancing their skills year over year and have shown an ability to do so. I particularly refer to Guerrero, Hernandez, Bichette and Gurriel. The only major counter-example is Grichuk who stands out, because he is the glaring exception
• Kirk could have a huge hitting upside if he gets a full season at DH/C; Montoya thinks he is the best hitter for his age on the team
• The Jays are already hitting with unusual discipline that can be maintained through a mixture of analytics and mindset (last year they not only led in HR but also in fewest strikeouts! Now they are reportedly committing to driving up their walks. If they succeed at that, look out! Earl Weaver’s 3-run homers are a big deal…
• Also re the analytics, the Jays coaches in their tech labs are teaching hitters how to be better at recognizing / waiting on pitches they are likely to hit well (in their personal hot zone, with pitch types they can hit, knowing pitcher patterns etc.) plus laying off the others
• The only hitters I feel sure will have lower WAR than last year are Grichuk Espinal and McGuire) - in each case, with fewer innings this year
• You rightly warn about injuries; then the question is who are the backups? I would take the hitting of Moreno (C), Groshans/Lopez/Martinez (IF) or Grichuk (OF) over their counterpart backups on any other team. Of course, multiple OF injuries would set us back, but we still have tradable assets in the cupboard and room to spend more on traded-for salaries that other teams lack
• As for the 3 parks of last year vs. the dome, agreed, but is that offset with happier players being located in their home park with their home crowd?

It’s all still a crapshoot between potential and actual results but I LOVE the potential!