Kasevich's homer went 417 feet.  I thought of him as having little or no power, and maybe he's added some over the last year.  He looks stronger in the legs than I remember.  

Kasevich is one of the guys fighting to catch some eyeballs. He knows a backup IF position is there if someone can claim it - right now it looks like a bench of OF with some who can play the IF, but ideally a solid utility IF will emerge and grab a slot, if not opening day, then later in the season.

What a spring game today - 20 hitters used, 10 pitchers. More than can be used in a regular season game at any time. Pitcher who blew it - Yariel Rodriguez. Sigh. The one ML pitcher used sucked royally - 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Eloy Jiménez getting a couple of hits trying to earn his way back to the majors (RH OF). Spring is silly fun isn't it?

He’s bulked up fairly considerably since his Vancouver days. Not quite to the same extent as Barger.

Kasevich always hit the ball hard but on the ground. Kinda like Clement.

Eloy Jimenez is trying to earn the last bench spot as a DH/1B option.
They could use him rather than move Okamoto to first when Vlad DHs.
He's been taking reps at first with Vladdy.

Potential AAA Position Player Roster (asterisk = no options)


CF J.Clase 24
RF R.Schreck 25
LF Y.Pinango 24
3B C.McAdoo 24
SS J.Kasevich 25
2B L.Jimenez* 25
1B R.Tirotta 27
DH E.Jimenez 29
C B.Valenzuela 25

UT R.Lantigua 28 / D.Palmegiani 26 / J.Hornung 25
OF C.Mendoza 26 / J.Bohrofen 24
IF J.Rivera 25 / B.Cowles 26
C R.Brooks 27 / CJ.Stubbs 29

A little surprising that roster is all 24+ years old, isn't it? I'd think normally there'd be a prospect a bit younger than that hoping to break through.

Although I guess you are doing age differently as I have from baseball reference ages that Clase as 23 this year, along with Bastardo 23, Tiedemann 23, and Yesavage 22 for notable less than 24 year old players.

Funny that they thought Kasevich was someone who rose all the way from A ball last year but with very fairly bad numbers.

Michael i'm pretty sure baseball-reference has their ages for the upcoming season the same as the ones i listed.

and yeah, it's an older team than we'd like to see.

23 is usually what i consider solid age-apropriate for a prospect, and ages 22, 21, 20 for better than just solid prospects.

Guys we would hope to break into AAA at some point this year would be:

Guys probably starting in AA this year:

S.Keys 23
A.Pinto 23
A.Parker 23
J.Freethy 23
G.Martinez 23
E.Hernandez 23

V.Arias 22


uys probably starting in A+ this year

E.Duran 22
C.Coffey 22
T.Toman 22

S.Shaw 21

A.Nimmala 20

24 is absolutely fine for AAA especially for a college draft pick. Judge was 24 in AAA. So was Raleigh. It's very common.And that's talking about elite players. Players who are still good and useful can take different development paths.

Kasevich didn't rise through the minors last year - he was ticketed for AAA from the start but suffered a stress fracture in his back and those lower minor stops are rehab stops. It was actually the second back injury of his career so something to watch. And he's always been able to hit triple-digit EVs but as mentioned, mostly on the ground.

I've always felt Fernando Perez was the most overrated prospect in the system and he showed why today. 90-91 with underwhelming secondaries is not going to get it done even when he has control working. In the low minors, the hype was due to his above-average command/control for his age/experience but he's past that point where its impressive and the stuff never got good enough for a consistent period of time.

The Jays big gap is the SP depth in AAA and AA, and no easy way to fix it. In the AL East probably only TB has worst depth - even Baltimore has more SP depth.

Macko looked pretty good but is pretty much a guaranteed bullpen guy in the majors. Same with Van Eyk.

Jays making up for lack of starting depth in upper minors with 8 major league staters.

Lack of starting depth? You mean Tiedemann, Macko, Dallas, Bloss, Stanifer, King (AA), Perez (AA) isn't enough? I see that as a fair number of starting prospects in AAA/AA with more in A/A+ ball. They might not be top 100's (yet) but there is a fair amount of quality there. Yesavage technically hasn't graduated yet too and if it wasn't for the playoff run he'd probably still be seen as trying to make the team.

Mix in the ML rotation and it gets nutty. But with pitchers that does seem necessary doesn't it? 6 guys with 10+ starts last year, 5 more with 2+, 4 more with 1 each. Only 5 were pure starters (0 relief games), with 38 pitchers used overall (including 4 hitters used 6 times combined covering 6 IP 18 H 14 R/ER 0 BB 1 SO - there is a reason you avoid using hitters on the mound).

Our AAA/AA SP depth seems good to me. They need to stay healthy and perform at their usual level which will get them promoted.

Yariel Rodriguez and Fernando Perez were awful yesterday in their 1st ST outing. Hope Yariel is used as a starter in AAA if that is where he starts the season. IMO Fernando will spend the year proving himself mainly in AAA. I am hoping for a quick promotion to AAA. As mentioned by Marc his velo is low 90s which reduces his prospect status. The hitters will have to adjust to hard stuff when he is pulled.

"Tiedemann, Macko, Dallas, Bloss, Stanifer, King (AA), Perez (AA) isn't enough?"

Tiedemann and Macko are going to pitch relief this year and maybe permanently, Dallas isn't very good and coming off injury, Bloss is out most of the year, Stanifer has 8 innings in AA, King is nowhere near the majors, and Perez isn't very good. I don't think it matters much because there is so much major league starting depth, but no, Jays don't have good starting depth in upper minors. I expect by end of year, it will change. Maybe Bloss back, Tiedemann more stretched out, Stanifer closer to majors, someone else emerges, etc...

It looks like Sanchez starts in LF.
That leaves Heineman and Schneider on the bench. 
The other 2 spots could go to Straw, Lukes or Eloy Jimenez if he impresses. 
A bench job could keep him healthy and productive. 

Technically, Spencer Miles is a starting option if the Jays can stash him in the pen. 
Same is true of Bastardo who could be sent back to AAA after 90 days. 
Those guys should get a good look.  

Cease
Gausman
Bieber
Yesavage
Berrios

Ponce
Lauer
Tiedemann
Macko
Bloss

Stanifer
Perez

And then a guy like Estrada who we already used as depth last year. I guess maybe guys like Dallas and VanEyk would be a similar caliber of depth as him too.

The A team with one exception is out today.  Gimenez and Clement at the top of the order in the absence of Springer is interesting. Maybe it's just about getting them an extra PA or two before the WBC.  

When you can't complain about the starting depth at the major league level you have to look to AAA or AA to find a problem...

Remember last year when Gimenez was our cleanup hitter in April games. That was fun.

Gimenez had some clutch hits in the playoffs, but the team would do well to remember he posted a 73wrc+ in the playoffs, after a 70wrc+ in the regular season. That is not even bench quality hitting, let alone starting quality. Not to mention that defensively, he's probably only a good defensive SS not a great one.

His starting spot should be FAR from a lock, and he definitely shouldn't be higher than 9th in the order until he actually earns it.

Gimenez and Clement at the top of the order

This smacks of 1960s/70s lineup construction. Low OBP middle infielders bat at the top of the order -- duh! -- not the bottom. Kubek and Richardson setting the table for Maris and Mantle.

I don't believe that Schneider's intents are to go retro once the real games start. This feels like a wacky springtime lineup, not foreshadowing.

Gimenez over 2yrs:

Season: 1002pa, 78wrc+
Playoffs: 115pa, 68wrc+

The team has lined up their usual SPs for the coming week, so it doesn’t appear that anyone (other than Bieber) is being hampered by injury.

Cease, Gausman, Yesavage, Ponce, Berrios, Lauer — that’s six starters — plus Bieber (who is slowly ramping up) is pretty solid depth for now. But I would still like to see Scherzer added as a player-coach-fiery presence for the season.

Guys - it is spring. Batting order right now is to get maximum PA for guys who need it the most. Some guys like Vlad will hit in their usual spots but guys like Gimenez and Clement will be hitting far higher than they will in April.

Wouldn't be shocked if the Jays do a deal with Scherzer that is a 'player opt-out' setup, where if the Jays don't call on him by a certain date he is free to walk away. I could see it being a warm up in the minors in May, work up to full speed by July and has to be starting in the majors in August or be allowed to walk. Gives the Jays backup in case of injury or ineffectiveness, gives Scherzer a chance to get ready for the season with the pay being set up to be split with a decent amount while in the minors, back to a $15 mil pace while in the majors (prorated for 2 months of course).

that's some nice easy straightaway power from Okamoto.

yummy.

Jonah Birenbaum
@birenball
·
1m
Crushing a low-and-away pitch like this 431 feet is crazy work.

Only three right-handed batters hit a pitch located like this one farther in 2025: Julio Rodríguez, Zach Neto, and Aaron Judge.

Gimenez and Clement are the ideal platoon partners to have at SS or 2B. I just don't like the idea of either of them starting against same handed opposing pitchers.

Perfect world the Jays trade for someone high end for SS or 2B so Clement/Gimenez can share the other. Wonder if Arizona is willing to hear offers on Ketel Marte again?

lol Greenfrog and I have been banging the **** out of this drum for months now. Just get this done FO, this team would be one elite reliever short of "closed case," good.

Perfect world, Clement and Gimenez combines for 10+ WAR.
Gimenez is only 27 and was worth 7.4 WAR when 23. Clement produced 4.4 WAR last year.

If Clement makes that play in the 3rd inning today, Berrios gets out of it without allowing a run.

Okamoto looks pretty solid. Gimenez and Clement should cover a lot of ground.

They'll have to retool the outfield after this year, so not having to spend any resources on the infield would help. 

The thing I find intriguing with the ABS is that it's based on player height.
Umpires tend to call strikes over the zone to shorter guys and balls in the zone with taller guys like Judge or Stanson.
I'd train Varsho to lay off the high strikes he can't hit and to recognize the strikes he should appeal.

Berrios says he wasn’t fully healthy last year (elbow/biceps issue that started last spring and that he pitched through), but that he is fully healthy this spring, per Mitch Bannon of The Athletic.

I take a lot of encouragement from the Berrios story. The speculation has been "can he make the rotation?" but if I were guessing (what John will do) right now, I'd pencil him in as the 3rd guy in the opening rotation. If nothing else but to help rebuild the idea that they do in fact respect him.

He's going to have to increase his fastball velocity before the end of spring.

He's a couple of mph under but that doesn't change his status.
I believe he's been bumped to the pen and the second round of the WBC.

A lot of guys show up "fully healthy" in spring, so that has to be taken with a grain of salt, but if there is no structural damage to Berrios' elbow and whatever he went through last year was dealt with through rest & rehab, I like his chances to bounce back. He was cruising along nicely in the first half of last year.

Sounds like Berrios is in The Best Shape Of His Life.

If Berrios has a healthy arm, and Gimenez's high ankle sprain becomes a thing of the past, why, there's nothing this team can't do!

Shi Davidi@ShiDavidi

Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Ricky Tiedemann is shut down for a week due to left elbow soreness after a recent side. MRI revealed no structural damage.

Righty prospect Chay Yeager is at Dr Keith Meister today with surgery possible after soreness in live BP last week.

Berrios was throwing 90-92 in his start. It was just the first start in ST, so too early to get a read on it, and he might wait a bit to ramp it up, but he lost velocity last season and it hurt him. He needs to be at 94 by the time the season starts.

Sucks about Tiedemann but hopefully the team doesn't have any dreams of him as a starter anymore. Just put him in the big league pen (if he's healthy) and then hope he has enough bullets in his arm to help before it explodes.

I wouldn't read much into that ricky thing yet. elbow soreness in ST is pretty common and obviously ricky and the staff are gonna take every precaution with any little twinge.

Springer's resurgence played a huge role in the team's success last year. Anyone want to speculate about who might provide a similar unexpected boost to the team this year?

A few candidates might include:

-Gimenez hitting well (while playing good-to-great defense at short)

-Varsho upping his power output (to around 30-40 home runs) to go with very good defense in CF

-Okamoto turning out to be a very good MLB hitter while playing an adequate 3B

-Ponce emerging as a #2-3 calibre SP

-Fluharty becoming an elite LH reliever

Nice list greenfrog.

I go with Varsho sustaining the improved power from last year, while staying more healthy.

Greenfrog - Gimenez is a big variable, if his hitting is adequate then he jumps to a 4-5 WAR player (100 OPS+), if he hits well (120 OPS+) then he skyrockets to a 6-7 WAR. And he has done it before so it isn't impossible.

Varsho also is a big variable - if healthy he could be an MVP candidate (40+ HR, 320 OBP, wow defense), if not then we get more Straw.

Okamoto is a big question mark, but that 431 ft HR really jumped him in my eyes. Is it a one time thing or can he be another big power source? If he can then all bets are off and the division is the Jays for the taking. If he is more a 250/320/410 hitter then meh.

Ponce I'm not expecting a lot from - I suspect early on he'll do well, as it'll take a bit for the league to adjust to whatever he learned in Korea, but by mid-season a drop off is expected.

I'm looking at Vlad as a potential WOW this year - he learned what he can do in the playoffs and how it changes everything. He can be as good as Judge with the bat for short stretches, but can he do it over the long haul? Guaranteed he wants to and he seems to have come to camp more motivated than ever - this is HIS team now, he is here for 14 more years and the 'safety net' he had with Bo around is gone. I'm hoping for a big year ala his 2021. Favorite Toy has him at 11% for 500 HR, 20% for 3000 hits. Safe to say he wants to reach at least one of those 2 goals, if not both. That requires him to pound the crap out of the ball this year as lord knows what 2027 holds.

Another factor is Barger - easy to forget he ended with a 105 OPS+ after that wild playoff 1.025 OPS (second only to Vlad). Will he build on that or be just a 'meh' hitter? Could be a 1 WAR RF or a 4 WAR guy if his bat comes to life and his defense improves (more focus on being in RF only, little time at 3B I suspect this year).

The rotation will be very, very interesting. Cease has had his FIP better than ERA in all but 1 season so far, suggesting he hasn't had the best defense behind him, that won't be the case this year. Gausman is on his contract year, as is Bieber, Berrios has something to prove to everyone this year.

The season preview from Baseball Prospectus has the Jays at 88.5 wins. Sub 2 WARP at CF (1.9), SS (1.7), 2B (1.8), but solid everywhere else. 1B at 4.6 the best hitting slot. Bullpen at 2.6 is a bit weak. Projected to be in a tie with the Yankees.

My money is on Vlad to be the biggest improver compared to last year. He was red hot to finish 2024, red hot to finish 2025 and I hope he can find a way, distraction free, to dial in for a whole season so we can have discussions about who is more worthy of the MVP between him and that monster in the Bronx.

How did Bastardo look? He threw 6 change up, got 4 swinging strikes. 
He threw 5 96mph fastballs, plus on at 97 and one at 98.
Gameday thinks some of the balls were strikes on the corner. 

I don't know if I see anybody skyrocketing ahead of their performance last year. But if anyone was going to do it I agree with uglyone that Varsho seems most likely. All he really needs to do is stay health and a little more consistent and suddenly he's an All-Star level player. But overall, I see incremental improvements in the team from Varsho, Vladdy, & Giminez maybe with some incremental decline by Clementine, Gausman, Barger, maybe some greater fall back by Springer and the wildcards for me are Yesavich, Bieber, Ponce, Yokamato and Ned Flanders.

I'm surprised at the mention of Varsho in this context unless you mean "having him play more will be an additive benefit". With that I agree. Otherwise, he's one of the prime risks to significantly regress from a performance perspective. He has a career 99 wRC+ in nearly 2500 PA's. Last year's 122 wRC+ was a pretty significant outlier. It's hard to see where they could get improved performance from the position player part of the roster other than maybe a bit more bat from Gimenez and maybe a return to the first half performance from Barger. I think the optimism should come from the improved starting staff.

I'm on the Varsho camp. In the off season threads I talked about wanting to extend him. His improve hitting numbers came about due to change in approach and there's reason to hope that's sustainable. Yes there's some risk he falls back to average bat with superior defense, but I think good bat with superior defense is quite possible/likely. It is his walk year so he has that going for him too. I certainly don't expect him to challenge Vlad for hitting, but healthy/good Varsho could hopefully cover the expected Springer regression.

My musing about Varsho was based on a hypothetical of “plays a lot (stays healthy)” and maybe ups his overall offensive output a bit by leaning into his power stroke (focusing on using his “A” swing with Popkins’s help).

Last year he had a .250 BABIP and a 123 wRC+. This might have been a fluke, but maybe he modified his approach in a way that allowed him to have more success — i.e., more home runs — despite not being a classically skilled hitter.

"the first half performance from Barger"

I will keep my flag on this hill:

On August 10, Barger's OPS was .828 and he was on a 162-game pace for 31 HR.

Then he had a missive 18 game slump...figured him out?

Maybe not. Over the next 11 games his OPS was .949, then he finished the season in another 11-game slump (we all know about the post-season)

It may seem cherry picking but I have every confidence that those first 95 games represents a reasonable expectation for what his 2026 would look like, with the potential for more (particularly if his playoff success vs LH was a reflection of real progress)

Bastardo looked good - more electric than Miles in his first appearance; looked a little amped up but the control should be ok. The bullpen could sorely use the high-velo arms. The Jays just can't seem to draft/develop their own.

Grant Rogers might make the Majors one day as a 2-3 inning reliever who can chew up some low-leverage innings by getting tons of ground balls but, like Fernando Perez, there isn't really a big league starter there.

varsho's line last year was the same as always, except for the power surge. and he's always had untapped raw power.

and that power surge was there to start the year, and then after many months long layoff, the power was still there when he came back.

it might be a fluke, but i think there's been a legit change there.

but there was plenty of hitting underachievement and PAs given to the wrong guys last year that we can also expect natural bouncebacks from too.

Significant power surges at 28-29 are not unheard of. The Jays have experienced this with Bautista and Encarnacion. But, those examples are rare exceptions to the norm and come with questions about how the power surge was obtained. I’m not discounting the possibility of Varsho displaying enhanced power as he moves forward but he’d be beating pretty long odds to do so. Citing untapped power potential is possible just looking at him physically but isn’t really supported by even his minor league numbers once you factor in the Arizona minor league hitting environments he played in.

Varsho doesn't really need to do much except stay healthy to be a huge improvement. Of the other ones listed, I think it's possible Okamoto might end up being more like a 3.5 WAR player than a 2.5 one which would be massive.

Just to realign our expectations, here's how the postseason changed our hitters overall line for the season (regular season wRC+ then combined wRC+)

Vlad: 137 to 148
Springer: 166 to 164
Gimenez: 70 to 71
Varsho: 123 to 117
Barger: 107 to 117
Kirk: 116 to 118
Lukes: 103 to 101
Clement: 98 to 106
Straw: 91 to 84
Heineman: 120 to 116
Schneider: 127 to 125

Pretty marginal changes for some, but I think this does make a material difference for Vlad, Barger and Ernie. I should note that this doesn't account for the better pitchers faced in the postseason.

Just playing around with the rotation comps, mostly to feed my brain some baseball content. No advanced stats or anything, just quick and dirty.

One way to break down the rotation slots last year would be
Gausman -32 starts, 3.59 ERA
Bassitt - 31, 3.96
Berrios - 30, 4.17
Francis/Scherzer - 31, 5.57
Lauer/Bieber/Lucas/Yesavage - 30, 4.26
all others - 8, 7.48

So cross out Bassitt and replace with Cease, Pencil Yesavage in for that fourth line, and Bieber/Ponce in for the fifth line - and assume Lauer for the "everything else" games.

Of course something crazy could happen like, say, Gausman falls apart, but barring outliers...

Cease didn't get all that money to not exceed Bassitt's outcome
Should be a cakewalk for Yesavage to beat 5.57
I don't think it would be optimistic to expect Bieber/Ponce to meet-exceed 4.26
And Lauer will surely be way better than 7+ even if that's a small sample.

if you figure Gausman/Berrios to, combined, more or less repeat their outcome then (this will come as no shock) you have to like the upside for overall SP (health assumed of course)

I agree Tamra. The starting pitching last year was mediocre to poor, particularly when you factor in the team defense. I think there is a decent chance for the team’s run prevention to improve this year due to improved starting pitching. Health is definitely the wild card. The Jays have been fortunate on the pitching health front the past couple of years.

The rotation using the breakdowns TamRa gave and projections 2025 ERA vs 2026 PECOTA projection

• Gausman 3.59 ERA vs 3.54
• Bassitt 3.96 vs Cease 3.48
• Berrios 4.17 vs 4.49
• Francis/Scherzer 5.57 vs Yesavage 3.42
• Lauer/Bieber/Lucas/Yesavage 4.26 vs Bieber 3.77 & Ponce 4.14
• Others 7.48 vs Lauer 4.19 & Tiedemann 4.44 (PECOTA has him with 3 starts, now in doubt).

So using that one method we see same or better in all but Berrios' slot and he isn't off by that much (0.32) while Yesavage should slaughter Francis/Scherzer by 2.15 based on this method (wow!) not to mention Lauer vs the assorted crap a the end (3.29 spread).

There are actually some interesting battles this spring. I don't know who the last two spots on the offensive side are. Most likely are two of Lukes, Jimenez, and Schenider but Mendoza, Kasevich, Cowles, Schreck, and Eloy Jimenez can all put themselves in the conversation with a strong spring.

A couple of very early things I've noticed. Valuenzuela is lean and athletic for a catcher. Jake Casey is an interesting prospect. Terrible college career until last season and showed really good numbers in A ball. Probably gets exposed as he moves up but maybe he adjusts.

I'm hoping that Angel Bastardo keeps impressing in camp and wins a spot. I think he has a chance to be a big leaguer and his stuff is intriguing. Curious to see how the pen shakes out. Right now (with injuries to Bieber/Garcia), it's likely to be Hoffman, Rogers, Varland, and Lauer. That leaves 4 spots for Little, Fluharty, Fisher, Bastardo, Miles, Nance, Lee, and Macko. The latter two are long shots given they have no prior big league success and options, so it's really the first 6.

Are you suggesting, Nigel, that Bautista & Encarnacion had suspicious power increases? June's(?) Conjecture about Fernandez makes more sense, though I don't buy it.
Bautista was public about the frequency of his surprise testing. Encarnacion's ability to unlock ( I forget who) as a hitter as a guest coach suggests he has a good understanding of hiring mechanics.
Sometimes players get flukey, sometimes they make measurable changes, but at the moment there's no reason to generalize performance enhancement foebage related breakouts unless talking aboit a specific era.

"There are actually some interesting battles this spring. I don't know who the last two spots on the offensive side are."


If the Jays view Schneider as strictly a LF (which it appears they do), then I'm curious what they would do if it was between a rejuvenated Eloy Jimenez (remains to be seen on that) vs Schneider who they didn't trust to face any RHP in the playoffs when the alternative was IKF. A RHH LF who will be platooned while not being a platoon guy and who isn't trusted by the org to face anyone who throws harder than Jamie Moyer seems like a bubble player to me. One thing in Schneider's favor is that he's likely a big part of the clubhouse vibes.

My guess is Eloy starts in AAA, and Schneider in the bigs. To me the real question is Lukes vs Leo Jimenez. With that said, I'm pulling for a Eloy breakout/bounce back.

lexomatic - I was not suggesting anything specifically about Bautista or EE. You are quite right that there can be a variety of reasons for late career power spikes. However, to deny that PEDs are one possible explanation would be naive. I legitimately hope that all positive outcomes are obtained through hard work and craft but that isn't always the case.

As to the legitimacy of PED testing regimes - as the uncle of an Olympic athlete in a sport riddled with PEDs, I can tell you that for the most part PED testing regimes are exactly as successful as the people doing the testing want them to be - which, unfortunately, in most cases is not very (otherwise the sport loses all credibility).

On Bautista, his power breakout was September 2009, and pretty clearly linked to a major change in approach. It's the power breakout where speculating about PEDs is most implausible and unfair.

Just a correction on Varsho's power history - not only did he always have untapped raw power as a prospect and player, but he actually had very good game power as well, for the most part.

20 (A-): 212pa, .223iso
21 (A+): 342pa, .164iso

Just a correction on Varsho's power history - not only did he always have untapped raw power as a prospect and player, but he actually had very good game power as well, for the most part.

20 (A-): 212pa, .223iso
21 (A+): 342pa, .164iso ---> the only stop where top-end game power didn't happen
22 (AA): 452pa, .220iso
23 (AAA): 87pa, .438iso

And his mlb game power seemed to be coming along nicely prior to being traded here, starting from solid average power and moving steadily up to well above average power by his last year in Arizona:

23 (ARZ): 115pa, .178iso
24 (ARZ): 315pa, .190iso
25 (ARZ): 592pa, .207iso

his power potential and likely batted ball data is a big reason why the jays valued him so highly at the time of trade. But that power just didn't happen in year 1 here. It bounced back in his 2nd year to a solidly above average power level. And then exploded last year.

26 (TOR): 581pa, .169iso
27 (TOR): 513pa, .194iso
28 (TOR): 271pa, .310iso

This could easily just be a fluke power streak, but a few things might give second thought to that - 1) Popkins clearly changed the approach of a number of hitters in the lineup, and it definitely seemed to suit Varsho. 2) this power surge survived a long months-long injury absence, which seems to take it outside of the realm of just some kind of fluke hot streak. 3) There's clearly always been legit high end power potential in his bat. 4) There's actually been a three-year launch angle trend for Varsho away from hitting groundballs and towards hitting flyballs. 5) maybe most encouragingly, there was a very large jump in Exit Velo and Barrel% last year, which means that even if it was a fluke hot streak, it wasn't a matter of just luck variation taking balls out of the park that wouldn't usually get out otherwise.

Not saying that he should be able to sustain a .300+ iso, but something in the mid-.200s range wouldn't surprise me at all tbh.

Of note, Varsho's power stats before this potential "breakout" power year last year was much better than the pre-breakout power that Bautista had shown, and about the same as Encarnacion:

Pre-Breakout Power

Edwin (23-28): 3098pa, .193iso
Varsho (23-27): 2116pa, .189iso
Bautista (23-28): 2038pa, .161iso



of course Varsho could easily just revert back to career norms, but if we're asking for opinions, I see some pretty good reasons to believe that Varsho will continue to show more power going forward than he did before last year. no guarantees though, obviously.

With the 3 players (yes, I was the one speculating on my favorite all-time Jay Tony Fernandez) I see Fernandez as the most suspicious due to the era, setting his personal best OPS+ marks 2 years in a row while playing with well known PED abusers (Clemens & Canseco) and with a trainer known for giving them out (the one who blabbed on Clemens), and a manager who was a well known liar (Johnson). Sadly everyone on that '98 team has to have an * beside them imo. Now, Bautista is a whole other ballgame - he (and Encarnacion) was known to have power and everyone kept waiting for it to show up, but until Gaston sat down with him no one knew how to get it out of him. For EE it was similar but without the obvious connection to Gaston - more he saw his career nearing an end if things didn't get better and finally it all clicked for him (traded by the Jays to the A's who let him go for nothing and the Jays grabbed him back, then he took off). Fernandez there is no logical explanation for his WOW '98 and '99 followed by going to Japan for '00. But for EE and Bautista there is a clear explanation for their power surges and the timing hits in their prime, not their late 30's (Fernandez' big years were age 36 and 37).

I'd like to be wrong about Fernandez, but his two years were just too weird, too coincidental, pre-testing sigh. JB and EE were tested up the wazoo though so little question on their being clean.

With Varsho a factor to consider is he was catching in the minors and at first in the majors. Moving out from behind the plate often comes with a jump in offense as a player doesn't need to spend so much time focused on defense and healing from the injuries that happen back there. So a breakout should be possible.

that's very nice velo anytime but especially for a first outing of spring.



Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
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In his first Grapefruit League appearance of the year, Cody Ponce sat 95.3 m.p.h. After a long at-bat he struck out Parker Meadows swinging. Also whiffed top Tigers prospect Kevin McGonigle. A 5-3 groundout completed Ponce’s first inning with the Blue Jays.

He's "sitting," fast it seems.

popkins effect?

Jimenez has always been a big swinger - in 2024, he averaged 92mph & had a max 112.3. He was still awful.

That said, he was one of the best prospects in baseball once upon a time. The power is real, there's a possibility someone could help him use it.

Clement with a 1400 OPS so far.

He must have heard about Bauxites’ comments about him hitting near the top of the order (or about a possible trade for Marte).

Underestimate Ernie at your own peril.

Did I say 1400 OPS?

I meant a slash line of .800/.857/1.400.

On the outfield logjam, if there isn't an injury, I think we are likely to see a trade of one of Schneider, Lukes or Straw. The Jays are unlikely to give up on Leo Jimenez (who I see as a likely regular at some point) and rely on Schneider as the only backup 2B. I would think all three would have a fit somewhere else, and I think optioning either Lukes or Schneider would be seen as unfair given what they did last year. There might be a public image reason to trade rather than demote Lukes or Schneider.

Might be beating a dead horse but i'd love to see Schneider given a chance to earn the fulltime starting 2B job before we dump him.

non-zero chance we have a cheap, 110wrc+ average glove 2B here, which would be a very solid player.

If he flops he flops but i'd give him a chance to show it, personally.

Schneider looks decent defensively in left field.
Clement has much more range at 2B.

Eloy has never been able to stay healthy, but he could be the next DH.
Could be a really good bench piece.

Leo Jimenez should be gone.
He's not able to hit off the bench and they have other options with Kasevich and Cowles.

Right now the bench is Heineman, Schneider, Lukes and Straw.
A catcher, a 4th outfielder, a 5th outfielder and a 6th outfielder.
I would bump one for Eloy but not for Leo. 
Lukes is probably the guy on the bubble with an option left even if he's 31.
Straw makes 7.4M. There's no surplus value there.

Agreed scottt. It isn't the 80's anymore, you can quickly call up someone if a guy gets hurt in a game, and find a way to get through that game even if you need to do something weird.

With Schneider you have a backup for 2B, Clement can cover SS or 3B as needed, Barger can cover 3B as well, plus in the minors all 3 played some SS/3B/2B so coverage is excellent (yeah, just 6 innings for Schneider at SS in 2019, but he has that in his resume and I figure it'd take a LOT going wrong for him to play there in a game that matters).

So really, no need to keep Leo Jimenez on the roster unless he earns his slot with a great spring. He hasn't shown much in the majors - 80 OPS+ in 242 PA. He has never played 100 games in a season as a pro, but has done well at every level other than the majors - 273/393/389. So maybe there is something there, but I wouldn't worry too much about it with the injury history and lack of stuff in the majors when given a shot.

Clement apparently reworked his swing in playoffs so maybe he's found a different level. Jays are going to face a ton of lefties. In AL East, Fried, Rodon, Weathers, Crochet, Suarez, McLanahan, and Rogers and Red Sox prospect guys. It's like half the starters on the division competition. Very hard to see how keeping 4 LH OF makes sense. Schenider makes a lot more sense to me as a vs LHP LF who can also start some against righties and play 2B if needed. Eloy off to a great start in spring but also hard to see keeping a backup RH DH. Just takes away so much flexibility. My guess, as of now would be Schneider and Leo Jimenez but a lot can change.

Jon Heyman@JonHeyman

Breaking: Max Scherzer goes back to Blue Jays

waiting for shoes to drop. No details but I'm almost coming around to the idea that they want to start Yesavage in AAA to manage his usage better. This makes no sense to me, honestly.

(yes, I know Max won't be built up for opening day so that's not really the obvious implication)

I'm just at a loss so I assume there's some more dominos to fall.

Shi: Max Scherzer is returning to the Blue Jays, as
Jon Heyman first reported. $3m in base a salary with up to $10m in incentives.

Curiouser and curiouser.

Wouldn't be surprised to see him in the pen.

I don't think Leo Jimenez can have a great spring. He's playing for Panama at the WBC.
It's more like a good showcase for a trade once he's DFAed.

He's likely at least a month behind. Maybe 2.
They could go 6 starters for a while.
Yeasavage or Pounce could go to the pen for a month or two.

It's going to be weird, but there are many options.
And then injuries happen.

Either the Jays trade one of Berrios or Lauer or they do what the Dodgers did last year and just are constantly resting guys/putting them quickly on the IL to save them for the playoffs. I get the Scherzer signing as depth as well as leadership and maybe a transition to coaching but I don't understand when people are saying they should save him for the playoffs. He's not very likely to be in Jays top-4 starters for playoffs.

This feels like a depth move. I don’t think they trade anyone unless the situation with Lauer gets to the point of not being worth the headache. Getting through a full season when it comes to starters is tough. This move helps them get through the season. I can’t imagine Max is sniffing a playoff roster unless he has a dead cat bounce.

I don't think Leo Jimenez can have a great spring. He's playing for Panama at the WBC.

Panama's playing Cuba and Puerto Rico, as well as an exhibition game against the Yankees, so that's potentially a decent showcase for Jimenez against quality opposition.

I think the Jays want to give him a chance to win a job - they had plenty of chances to trade or waive him before now.

I honestly think the Jays will tinker with tandem starts, like they did with Yesavagae/Stanifer last year in the minors.

Normally lots of days off in April, lets check the schedule and see how it goes with a 5 and 6 man rotation, starts March 27th...

• 1-2-3-4-5
• 1-2-day off-3-4-5
• 1-2-day off-3-4-5
• day off-1-2-3-4-5
• 1-2-3-4-day off-5
• 1-2-3-4-5
• 1 (end of April)-2-3-4-5
• 1-2-day off-3-4-5
• 1-2-3-day off-long stretch of 17 straight games no days off (sure to go to 6 man here)-4-5
• 1-2-3-6-4-5
• 1-2-3-6-4-5
• 1-2-3-day off-4-5
• 1-2-3-6-4-5
• etc...

so 4 days off in April, go through a 5 man 6 times plus 1 more for the #1 guy. May only has 2 days off, with a long stretch of none (May 15-31st). 3 off days in June, then a stretch from June 16-July 1st of non-stop games. July has the ASG (7 days off, 3 outside of the 4 day break), August 3 days off, September 3 off as well.

I'm guessing 5 man for April until mid-May, then a 6 man (see above for how I see it working), back to 5 for a rotation loop, then 6 again, and so on for the rest of the season. Health and effectiveness will change things here and there of course. I suspect Scherzer will start on the IL and be working his way to full speed for mid-May when 6 are needed. Lauer might get a start early on with the 7 straight to start the season, and the 7 straight at the end of April. Keep guys on a 6 day rotation instead of a certain number of men used might make sense. With Lauer stretched out to start the season and Max coming back mid-Mayish that could work well.

I'll say it again - i think the jays always wanted to be ahead of the curve with flexible starter usage and are super envious that the dodgers took that strategy and supercharged it, and now are going to go at it full steam ahead.

That means lots of 6 man rotations and tandem starts and long men and swapping roles.

Bob Nightengale@BNightengale

Details of Max Scherzer's one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays:
$3 million base salary
$1 million when he reaches 65 innings
$1M for 75IP
$1M for 85IP
$1M for 95IP
$1M for 105IP
$1M for 115IP
$1M for 125IP
$1M for 135IP
$1M for 145IP
$1M for 155IP
He can receive a total of $13M, same as Justin Verlander, although Verlander has $11M in deferrals.

He can earn $13M total

"He's likely at least a month behind. Maybe 2."

I doubt that - he's likely been following a very similar regimen so far as the pitchers in camp have.

That's the noble and (right) sentiment about the Jays' starter situation. That sentiment also works better if everyone's already got their bag. Unfortunately, the Jays aren't in that situation. All of the starter candidates other than Lauer have already been paid (other than Yesavage who really isn't eligible to be paid). So, we will see how everyone handles this.

yeah Lauer's definitely stickier - the jays might have been smarter not to fight him so hard in arby and just give him an extra couple mil to keep him happy in this kind of role.

If I'm Lauer I'm communicating my interest in asking around about a trade. Not pounding on the door, certainly not publicly, but he's old enough to have a strong interest in maximizing his walk year.

Still don't think there's a market for Berrios, especially when you can simply sign Gialito.I think that he'll be fine this year but teams will need to be impressed before the risk those option years.

On a conventional ST schedule, he's around 2 weeks behind but may take it slower depending on how he is physically now. He'll need a few turns in the minors just to get game reps so probably looking at something like when they come back from the West Coast in late April. Bieber, if he doesn't get a setback, probably a week, 10 days, ahead of that but he might take a bit longer on rehab then you would if you were in a hurry to get a guy back.

It's a tricky spot for everyone. Between health issues and the fact that Lauer was legitimately good over a pretty extended run last year, there's a sizeable chance that Lauer is one of their 5 best starting options. Personally, I'd start the season with him in the rotation and not push any of Bieber, Scherzer or Yesavage out of the gate.

Ben Nicholson-Smith@bnicholsonsmith

Blue Jays pitchers – including Max Scherzer – have been told that the starting rotation will be set via meritocracy.

“Their performance dictates it. Everyone’s a big boy. They understand where we’re at.”

The Scherzer deal is a mixed bag - it's great that we're not paying him a ton if he doesn't pitch a lot. On the other hand, he's very competitive and may push to pitch more to collect those bonuses, even if it's time to hang 'em up. Hopefully he's made enough $$ lifetime to not worry about a few more.

Blue Jays pitchers – including Max Scherzer – have been told that the starting rotation will be set via meritocracy.

Managers have to say things like this, but it's funny to imagine a scenario where Eric Lauer bumps Dylan Cease to the bullpen. Or that Shane Bieber doesn't return straight to the rotation when/if he's healthy, regardless of how anyone else happens to be pitching at the time.

Mitch Bannon@MitchBannon

Brendon Little just hit 98.1 mph with his four-seamer. It's a different pitch this year (on top of a new slider and his old sinker/power curve).

He topped out at 96.3mph with his old 4-seamer in '25 and sat 94.4mph with it. If he can zone it, that's intriguing #BlueJays

Totally agree Ryan - I'll believe regular season pitching decisions are based solely on merit when I see it.

The guy who looks unlikely to have a future in Toronto is Yariel Rodriguez. I have to admit that I never really understood the appeal in the first place but I am surprised that even a bullpen role may be a bridge too far for him.

the 6 Little 4-seamers today - 2 right on the line at the top of the zone for strikes, 1 right on the line at the bottom of the zone (challaneged and upheld for a strike), 1 high by a good bit for a ball, 1 low and outside by a good bit for a ball, 1 way outside for a ball.

Who management is giving early looks to - some of this is guys having set positions, some of it maybe giving some fringe guys some early looks before getting cut:



Outfield battle (noting that varsho may have had an ouchie to get 2 starts at DH instead of CF).

Varsho 4gms: CF x2, DH x2
Barger 3gms: RF x3
Lukes 3gms: CF x2, RF x1
Straw 3gms: CF x1, RF x1, LF x1
Schneider 3gms: LF x2, DH x1
Sanchez 2gms: RF x1, LF x1

Schreck won't make the team to start but does have a start in LF and 4 sub appearances RF/LF. Clase also got a start in CF in his only appearance so far.

Eloy has 2 starts and 2 subs, with only one of them in LF and 3 at DH.

Pinango and Lantigua both getting lots of time - 5 appearances as subs for each as OF.


Shortstop:

Gimenez 4 starts
Nimmala 1 starts, 1 subs
Cowles 1 starts, 1 subs
Kasevich 0 starts, 2 subs
Rivera 0 starts, 1 subs

Second Base:

Clement 4 starts
Jimenez 2 starts, 2 subs
Rivera 0 starts, 1 subs
Lantigua 0 starts, 1 subs
Coffey 0 starts, 1subs

Third Base:

Okamoto 4 starts, 0 subs
Kasevich 1 starts, 1 subs
McAdoo 0 starts, 4 subs
Mendoza 0 starts, 2 subs
Cowles 0 starts, 1 subs
Coffey 0 starts, 1 subs
Doughty 0 starts, 2 subs



Hard to know of Leo Jimenez is the favorite backup IF at the moment, or if they just feel the need to give him all the opportunities before making a tough decision on him.

We know that Clement would be the main backup at SS, so the SS subs don't seem to matter much.

Same could be said at 3B, with both Barger and Clement likely the main backups there.

I'm probably the high person on Jimenez around here but I don't see him making the roster and there's next to no chance that he would clear waivers. I think his chance will come somewhere else.

I wouldn't be surprised if the back up plan at SS if there is an extended injury to Gimenez or Clement is Kasevich. I don't think he can hit at all but he's a legit defender. And while I'm not high on his offensive profile, could he do much worse than the 70 wRC+ that the Jays carried last year with Gimenez? The Jays could muddle through with him.

The ultimate small sample size comment but I saw about a half dozen of Stanifer's pitches today (I didn't see the radar readings) - his stuff doesn't look nearly as electric as last season. I was wondering if he's physically 100%

I don't think the defending AL Pennant winners are going into the season with Davis Schneider as their backup infielder - and if ugly's summary is right, they aren't giving him any time there yet anyway. It's not that they couldn't get by with Schneider at second for a day when Clement or Gimenez have to leave a game, but they aren't going to want him there to give each of them an occasional day off and to cover for short-term illnesses and injuries that don't warrant a trip to the 10-Day IL. And it's not as if middle infield is an area of depth for the Jays - beyond Jimenez is Kasevich, but then it's Cowles, Lantigua and Rivera.

Nigel may think he's the high man on Jimenez, but he'll have to fight me for it. He's still only 24, he's hit decently in an extended major league audition, he can field shortstop, and he's demonstrated good contact ability and quality in the minors, hitting at every level. I'd get losing him if there was a well-established backup on the roster already, but there isn't. It really doesn't make sense to me to lose Jimenez to keep six outfielders. I don't think it's a competition - I suspect that the decision to carry Jimenez was made by Atkins at the start of the offseason.

Davis Schneider doesn't appear to be viewed as a 2B by the organization anymore, so I really don't see any reason why they'd start the season with Lukes (OF), Schneider (LF), and Straw (CF) as the bench. They need an infielder there, and Jimenez is both out of options and young enough to have some sneaky upside which the team could use. I believe he hit LHP better in the minors so he's a natural platoon option with Gimenez as well.

I also believe Jimenez makes the team barring a trade somewhere. I'd be pretty surprised if a team that values defense as much as the Jays go into the season with their 3 non-catching bench options all being outfielders.

Guys going to the WBC are getting more playing time now.

Clement was playing with a multitude of injuries last year, so I don't think there's any need for a backup 2B.
He played in 157 games.

Leo Jimenez was a shortstop but he seems to be viewed only as a 2B now.
They picked up Cowles who has 2 options left, he hit just as well as Jimenez so far which isn't saying much.
The sneaky upside guy is Kasevich.

When Little came over he was known for his sinker.
Here, they made him throw a ton of knuckle curves that nobody can hit.
Except after a while, people realized that the curve is never in the strike zone and laid off.
So, he ended up walking a ton of guys.

The Cubs only gave him one inning and he allowed 3 runs and only made 2 outs.
He had an ERA over 4 in AAA, 2 years in a row.

So, yeah. He's got an adjustment to make, but the knuckle curve has to be part of it.

It's early.

We don't need a tradotional glove first bench IF because both Gimenez and Clement are very good defensive SS.

Straw is more needed vmcuz Varsho is the only legit defensive CF otherwise, but it's a bit interesting that Lukes has two starts in CF already.

It is very early in spring to be reading too much into who is doing what, playing where, but my guess now for stuff...

• OF: Varsho-Barger locks, Straw near lock, Sanchez/Schneider the likely LF platoon, with Lukes vs Sanchez and Clase lightly in it (switch hitter), but mostly Eloy Jimenez vs Schneider for the RH side. Wouldn't be shocked if it is Sanchez/E Jimenez in the end, with Schneider having a shot to be in the mix as well so Barger can sit vs a lot of LH pitchers. Smith/Varsho in a semi-platoon in CF to keep Varsho healthy too.
• IF: Vlad-Clement-Gimenez-Okamoto the regulars, L Jimenez-Cowles in a fight for a spare slot with the assorted OF, with Kasevich trying to prove he deserves first call up for an IF injury, McAdoo getting lots of chances to show he deserves a shot at 3B, the rest mostly trying to get noticed. Schneider is an emergency guy if an in game injury happens or a guy needs a day off and no one else can cover.
• C: Kirk/Heineman duh. 5 NRI's and Valenzuela trying to prove they deserve the call up when one of the big 2 gets hurt (inevitable at catcher it seems)
• SP: yikes. Gausman-Cease-Yesavage-Berrios-Ponce then Scherzer-Lauer with Bieber on the IL. Overload. Half expected a trade today after Scherzer was signed, but instead tandem starts with Yesavage and/or Ponce seems likely (Yesavage/Scherzer - young/old combo maybe? Ponce-Lauer for 2 very different pitchers - give each 4 innings in a game, 5 if going well to keep all 4 healthy and stretched out)
• RP: Hoffman-Rogers-Varland-Little all locks, Fisher-Nance-Fluharty-Bastardo-Miles-Lee-etc. fighting for 2 slots. Bastardo & Miles rule 5 guys so have to make it or go on the IL to stick, Lee-Fluharty-Fisher-Little-Varland have options left so are all at risk to various degrees (Varland should be safe).

So many variables right now, but I could see things working out. Lots of good problems to have - too many quality guys to pick from for some roles.

Someone is posting Bowden Francis photography on Facebook and I gotta say, Addison Barger is such a dude. Surely he knows that his look is increasing his appeal not just as a player but as a fan-favorite person.

Much better than last year when Barnes and Lovelady made the team.

Eloy Jimenez is mostly 1B/DH. Should be more obvious once WBC starts.

Cowles is like 2022 Clement. He's from Rochester. 
He's a Yankees farmhand.

Interesting - BR has added WBC stats to their minor league pages. So Freddie Freeman you can see has hit like crap in it (364 OPS in 2017, 473 in 2023). Full 2023 Canada stats here. Berrios has played 3 times in it (missing this year) 9 2/3 IP 13.97 ERA. Ouch. He was 19 the first time he played for PR in 2013.

Kind of fun digging into these things. That 2013 PR team had ex-Jay José Molina on it.

Huh, just noticed Alex Rios was on that team too.

2006 was the first WBC. Fun to look back. Vernon Wells played in '06 (745 OPS), the 3 oldest US pitchers were all ex-Jays (Timlin, Leiter, and Clemens). Too fun, gotta stop.

OF: ... but mostly Eloy Jimenez vs Schneider for the RH side.

Jimenez has only played 1/4 games in the outfield so far this spring, and is DHing again today. He's been primarily a DH for most of his career - the last time he played the field more than DH was 2021.

That almost makes it a Jimenez-Springer competition, or maybe pushing Schneider out so Springer can play outfield more regularly. Jimenez is really going to have to hit to make that happen.

He's also been better vs RHP over his career, similar to Davis Schneider. He probably doesn't fit a strict platoon role.

Lukes getting his 3rd start in CF today.

Schneider's first look at 2B.

Jimenez' first look at SS.

The worst possible outcome is if both Leo and Eloy both make the team, and we have to deal with Jimenez/Jimenez/Gimenez all season.

I haven't seen any reporting whether Eloy has an opt-out at the end of spring training or later on. If he can go to Buffalo and hit, he's great depth in case injury hits Springer or Vlad. I can't see him making the team outside of injury or trade though.

"I haven't seen any reporting whether Eloy has an opt-out at the end of spring training or later on."

I think it was on mlb.com, but Eloy gave an interview and stated that he would be fine if he needed to start in Buffalo. He signed with the Jays because of the faith they showed in him last season.

Eloy doesn't make much sense to me. Carrying a backup RH DH who doesn't have big splits just isn't a good use of a roster spot. He's also been a terrible hitter in majors and minors for a couple of years. Let him play at AAA and if he hits, he can be used if Springer gets hurt.

Hadn't checked his splits, but who knows if the Jays have seen something we haven't. I remember long ago seeing a study that said the platoon differential is universal and while guys will sometimes have reverse splits for a time, they always will migrate to the norm (something like a 100 point OPS spread). For guys who play everyday and bat right they can get reverse splits due to how rarely they see LHP, and then mainly seeing the best ones. We'll see how it goes though.

My most likely is E Jimenez & sadly Lukes in AAA, Schneider/Sánchez in LF with Straw semi-platooning in CF to keep Varsho healthy, the other times vs LHP Straw in RF to give Barger a break. L Jimenez on the bench so he isn't lost for nothing.

Eloy not being able to play defense is going to hurt his chances of making the team. I think he begins the year in AAA and comes up only in case of injury or if he's completely lighting up AAA pitching and the Jays need an offensive spark.

Leo Jimenez with a 110.6 mph single off Ryan Pepiot today. Pulling for him to make the team.

Tbh i think the jays would want eloy to pound aaa pitching before calling him up.

As I said yesterday, I think that Jimenez is likely headed elsewhere this season. However, I will say this crazy thought I've had out loud - if Gimenez is only the 70-80 wRC+ hitter that he has been the past two seasons then Jimenez might be the better player. Gimenez is probably the better defender at SS (obviously the better defender at 2B), but I'm not sure that the defensive gap at SS is huge. Anyway, I'm optimistic about Gimenez hitting better this year so it's hopefully irrelevant.

Clement on Okamoto (per Sportsnet):

“He’s very smooth in everything he does,” Clement said. “He’s got one of the smoothest right-handed swings that I’ve ever seen, honestly, and then he’s really smooth in the field. He’s going to fit right in and make a really, really big impact with us.”

A bench of Schneider (LF/2B), Jimenez (2B/SS), and Straw (CF/OF) makes a lot more sense for this roster IMO, especially with Lukes having an option remaining. I still think that's the route they end up going. I know they added an optionable middle infielder from the Cubs recently but they were going to need another AAA infielder regardless of what happened with Jimenez, so I don't think that move relates to any decision needed on Leo.

Against LHP, have Schneider in LF and Leo either at 2B or SS (depending on where they want to play Clement). With that said, I think it's very possible that the team is higher on Kasevich than they are on Jimenez, so if they feel comfortable losing Leo and adding Kasevich when a need arises, then maybe that's the direction they go. Not the direction I'd choose.

The other possibility is that a trade happens.

If the front office can pull off a multiple-players-for-one-impact-position-player trade somewhat like the Donaldson and Chapman ones — we’re probably talking about Marte here — that would sort out some of the roster issues.

The gamble with Eloy Jimenez is that he could be the next Encarnation/Bautista.
He was a silver slugger 4 years ago but his career got derailed by injuries to a point where he was ready to retire.
The spot for him would be a bat off the bench and a start once a week backing up Vlad, so Okamoto can focus on playing 3B in the majors.

As much as i like Lukes i'm under no illusions that he may well be the guy sent down. or traded.

Just hope we don't waste the asset.

I've watched on tape all of Okamoto's PA's and time in the field so far. Initial (I mean really initial:)) impressions are really positive at the plate (he's hit velocity up in the zone) and much less positive in the field. It's super early.

If the Blue Jays traded for Marte (admittedly unlikely until at least late July), they could use Clement at third base more often, with Okamoto doing more of a rotation between third base, DH, first base (occasionally), and pinch-hitting.

Currently the Blue Jays are heavily relying on Okamoto playing third base a lot of the time. That may or may not be feasible over a full season.

Lukes is a tough case because on one hand, I think you want to treat players well and if he's not going to play, sending him to somewhere he will and getting an asset makes sense. On the other hand, he's a perfect backup in many ways and would be the first guy up if any Of or Okamoto or Springer got hurt so it's very easy to see 300+ PAs even if he started in minors. Maybe Jays can replace that with other guys (Schreck, Etc...) but it's very useful depth to have.

re Eloy - the typical minor league deal for veterans in his situation have opt out on June 1 (unless it's stated as earlier) and he'll be trying not just to impress the Jays but scouts for teams like the Marlins and D'Backs who don't have a presumptive DH incumbent.

Sean Keys has been getting plenty of looks so far in spring, but exclusively at 1B.

The idea of him ever being a 3B might be over.

Cease pitched 1.2 innings (33 pitches). Is that a normal workload for a first start in ST?

Loving everything I've read about Scherzer coming back - that his wife and daughter wanted him to come back here. Badly. Says the Jays are doing the right thing by putting a family focus on the team. No sane guy would ignore what his wife and daughter tell him to do.

Also for today - 3 shutout/no hit innings from Berrios so far (no idea if he is going further). McAdoo off to a good spring so far, nowhere for him to play in the majors but hopefully he has a strong AAA season and is taught more than 3B so he can have a shot later in the season in the event of an injury. Seems good when I saw him in games on TV outside of screwing up on a play, trying to go to 3B but Kirk was there and not moving.

Ben Nicholson-Smith@bnicholsonsmith

Trey Yesavage might not be fully stretched out by the time the season opens, an interesting wrinkle for the Blue Jays.

The 22-year-old is still a big part of their plans, of course. “He’s proven that he belongs on the team.” More @sportsnet

Makes sense - could see him being in a tandem start situation for awhile - either with Scherzer or Lauer depending on situation. Good way to stretch him out while getting some innings in the majors from him.

McAdoo has looked great at third and that's all I need to know

Another great game from Kasevich. 1 hit, 2 walks, 2 stolen bases including a beautiful stop to let Schreck score. And a great catch in the outfield.
If Bo could run like that there's no catastrophic crash to end the playoffs in 22.

Solid game from Shreck as well. Leaping catch to end the game with the tying run in play.

Bastardo still looking good. Easy 98mph.
I really hope he doesn't go back to Boston.

Venenzuela is like the opposite of Kirk.
He sure looks the part.

Solid start from Berrios against the Yankees A lineup.
Velo back to 94mph.

https://x.com/BlueJays/status/2027852988941836721?s=20

The ABS challenges are intersting.

• AAA Pitchers for Jays 2025: From Adam Kloffenstein (9 won, 4 lost) to Justin Bruihl (5 won 9 lost)
• 7 catchers in AAA for the Jays in 2025 from Phile Clarke going 18-11 to Christian Bethancourt going 36-33. Kirk was 0-1 in his brief time in the minors, Valenzuela 11-13
• 22 hitters challenged from Davis Schneider 10-2 to Yohendrick Pinango 3-10

Interesting to look at. It'll be interesting to see how it goes in 2026 with the challenges. Hopefully they don't get wasted early in games.

uglyone - for those who don't want to use a site run by Musk, https://bsky.app/profile/bluejaysbot.bsky.social/post/3mfx4yuemhk2m goes to the game winning catch by Schreck. Dang he is a fun one to cheer on.

Bastardo was in the system for a full year last year (on the 60-day DL) so all he has to do is stick in the majors for 90 days and then the Jays can option him down at the end of June, barring injury. That's a huge win, especially given how good he looks (albeit with control issues).

I'd much rather see them run him out for 3 months in a low leverage role to secure his high-octane arm than watch Nance pitch, and they can run optional assignments on Fluharty and Fisher. Jays badly need high upside, high velo arms... I'm sure Boston would love to get him back if he actually gets through waivers if Toronto doesn't keep him.

And maybe the club can work out a trade for Miles if they can match up with SF. It's not a huge loss given how few inning he threw for them and that also gets him off the 40-man for Toronto - at least until Novemeber... getting something for him is better than losing him on waivers before he gets back to them.

111mph+ exit velo for Nimmala off of Skubal.

unfortunately turned into a DP, but still.

Keys also laced one 107+ off of Skubal for a double. lefty on lefty.

and Clase is having a day.

Javen Coleman confused with Fluharty.

If i were to try reading the tea leaves from playing time distribution so far, without at all considering options or anything like that, this is how it kinda looks so far.....

1. 13 hitters have had a number of starts and zero appearances off the bench....and they're the ones you'd expect:

CF Varsho 6 starts - CFx4, DHx2
RF Barger 5 starts - RFx4, DHx1
LF Lukes 5 starts - CFx3, RFx2
3B Okamoto 4 starts - 3Bx4
SS Gimenez 5 starts - SSx5
2B Clement 5 starts - 2Bx5
1B Guerrero 5 starts - 1Bx4, DHx1
DH Springer 2 starts - DHx2
C Kirk 5 starts - Cx5

UT Schneider 5 starts - LFx3, 2Bx1, DHx1
OF Sanchez 5 starts - LFx3, RFx1, DHx1
OF Straw 4 starts - CFx2, RFx1, LFx1
C Heineman 1 starts - Cx1


2. Then we have a group that has many appearances, with some starts but mostly bench appearances. Though none of them have been used as 3rd stringers. This looks like the AAA pool:

CF Clase 2 starts - CFx1, LFx1 / 2 subs - CFx2
RF Schreck 1 starts - LFx1 / 6 subs - RFx4, LFx1, DHx1
LF Pinango 1 starts - RFx1 / 7 subs - LFx4, RFx3
3B McAdoo 2 starts - 3Bx2 / 6 subs - 3Bx4, 1Bx1, DHx1
SS Kasevich 1 starts - 3Bx1 / 5 subs - SSx4, 3Bx1
2B Leo 4 starts - 2Bx3, SSx1 / 2 subs - 2Bx2
1B Tirotta 3 starts - 1Bx3 / 5 subs - 1Bx4, DHx1
DH Eloy 4 starts - DHx3, RFx1, LFx1 / 2 subs - DHx2
C Valenzuela 3 starts - Cx3 / 2 subs - Cx2

UT Lantigua 1 starts - 2Bx1 / 7 subs - CFx3, 2Bx2, LFx2
UT Mendoza 0 starts / 6 subs 2Bx3, LFx2, 3Bx1
IF Cowles 3 starts - 3Bx2, SSx1 / 2 subs - SSx1, 3Bx1
C Stubbs 1 starts - Cx1 / 2 subs - Cx2

UT Hornung 0 starts / 1 subs - 1Bx1
OF Munguia 0 starts / 2 subs - CFx2
IF Rivera 0 starts / 4 subs - SSx2, 3Bx1, 2Bx1
C Brooks 0 starts / 2 subs - Cx2


that looks like the AAA squad, though obviously the last 4 guys there are probably only on the team if there's injuries.



3. Then we have a 3rd group that has had some looks, mostly on the bench, including 3rd string appearances - but due to lack of track record in AA are likely going to start the year in AA. The big question here is whether kids like Nimmala and Duran (and Toman) are sent back to A+ to try and dominate that level or if they're pushed up to AA right away despite not totally earning it. I tend to think they'll all start in A+ but we'll see - it does kinda look like they might be looking at Nimmala moving up tho.

and of course if we don't lose anyone and guys like Rivera / Brooks / Munguia / Horning come down to AA then some guys here are forced to A+.

It's been interesting to see Keys and Coffey getting so many looks this spring so far.

CF Casey (23) 0 starts / 1 subs - CFx1 / 1 2nd sub - CFx1
RF Ward (26) 0 starts / 1 subs - RFx1 / 1 2nd sub - CFx1
LF Micheletti (24) 0 starts / 2 subs - RFx2
3B Doughty (25) 0 starts / 1 subs - SSx1 / 1 2nd sub - 3Bx1
SS Nimmala (20) 3 starts - SSx3 / 3 subs - SSx2, DHx1
2B Coffey (22) 1 starts - 3Bx1 / 3 subs - 2Bx2, 3Bx1
1B Keys (23) 3 starts - 1Bx3 / 4 subs - 1Bx4
DH Cunningham (25) 0 starts / 1 subs - DHx1
C Parker (23) 0 starts / 2 subs - Cx2 / 1 2nd sub - Cx1

OF Harry (23) 0 starts / 2 subs - CFx2
UT Freethy (23) 0 starts / 1 subs - LFx1
IF Goodwin (24) 0 starts / 1 subs - 3Bx1 / 1 2nd sub - SSx1
C Planchart (24) 0 starts / 1 subs - Cx1 / 1 2nd sub - Cx1

C Duran (22) 0 starts / 0 subs / 1 2nd subs - Cx1
IF Toman (22) 0 starts / 0 subs / 2 2nd subs - DHx2
OF Latta (23) 0 starts / 1 subs - DHx1

They gave the guys going to the WBC their playing time.

Cowles has 2 options and will certainly be in AAA--barring injuries.
Clase still has 1 option. Same deal.

Right now they have too many left hitting outfielders.
Playing Lukes in center could indicate the possibility of dropping Shaw.
Sanchez has faced a lot of lefties so far--that's a huge waste of time.

It doesn't look like they will try Okamoto at 1B.
Maybe we will see Eloy at 1B this week.

Cowles was apparently just claimed back on waivers by the Cubs. Not sure why we dropped him so quickly, but perhaps the plan was to try to sneak him through waivers and keep him on an outright assignment in Buffalo until needed.

yeah Cowles was always getting sent down and tbh he'd have been hard pressed to play regularly in AAA anyways imo.

this lets Rivera keep his spot in buffalo probably.

Part of it might be Kasevich looking really good this spring.
Part of it must be that they need the 40 spot for someone else. Eloy, maybe?

Kasevich, Rivera, and Mendoza is plenty depth in middle IF in AAA (assuming Jimenez makes team). Kasevich has looked very good. Mendoza has looked good as well. Just a lot of high quality abs and taking a lot of pitches. Obviously spring doesn't mean much but I expect both guys to be at least competent call-ups. Schreck is interesting because scouts don't like him much but models really do. ZIPS has him as #104 prospect in baseball. No scouts would have him close to that.

BA has liked Schreck for a while. They rank him as the #8 Blue Jays prospect (between Juan Sanchez and Jake Bloss) and describe him as “a well-rounded player with strong plate skills and the ability to fill in at all three outfield positions.” They conclude that he “looks like a second-division regular with a bat-driven profile.”

Scouting Grades Hit 60 / Power 50 / Run 50 / Field 45 / Arm 50

Schreck could be a more athletic Schneider or he could be Roden redux. We'll see.

Roden Redux could almost be a John Updike novel title.

Spitballing about Cowles - feels like they thought they could sneak him through, because it would have been easy enough to put Santander on the 60. Didn't work obviously.

If they picked him up, all other teams had passed.
Maybe they should have tried before the 60IL.

Speaking of Roden - off to a hot spring again - 500/563/714 over 16 PA for the Twins but his projection for '26 is a horrid 227/297/364. For his sake I hope he has a good year. Btw, Austin Martin is 4 for 12 for the Twins (0 walks, 0 extra bases).

For the Jays most PA is Sean Keys at 16 (188/235/438), then Eloy Jiménez at 15 (400/438/733) so both of them are getting a lot of looks early on. At 14 PA you get McAdoo, Sanchez, and Varsho. So clearly the Jays are trying to get a good feel for these guys early on, but it is way too early to judge anything from their stats. Keys was in A+ last year with a 773 OPS so I suspect the Jays are debating if he is ready for AA or not. McAdoo's 938 OPS suggests his bat at least is ready to move up to AAA, but like I said, very early to judge anything from the stats. But I'd say McAdoo is one to watch. He won't make the team but he could be in good shape for a callup if he keeps this up.

Barely relevant trivia: Martin last year vs. LHP:

.346/.404/.481/.884 in 57 PA

If that wasn't such a random tiny sample one could get interested in him as a lefty-basher off the bench

So obviously the WBC impacted playing time so far...and now with Gimenez Clement Okamoto and Jimenez away at the WBC we'll see other guys get IF looks that maybe they would have already got if the other guys weren't leaving camp.

Today unsurprisingly it's Barger getting his first start at 3B, Schneider getting his 2nd start at 2B, and Kasevich at SS.

If we see heavy use of Schneider at 2B during the wbc then he's in the 2B picture after all.

If there's only 1 start at 2B or less per week, he's definitively in the picture. 
Neither Clement nor Gimenez are platoon players.

I mean Gimenez certainly should be a platoon player.

never usually a fan of mlb pipeline....but this ranking seems really good to me tbh. (knowing that once you get much beyond top-10 the specific ranks don't matter so much.)

Jake Casey getting a decent amount of looks this spring, all in CF.

he had a legit huge last year in NCAA and A, at age 22. wouldn't be shocked if he skipped A+ and moved straight to AA, but wouldn't be shocked if he didn't either.

Gimenez' career numbers vs. LHP > Clement's vs. RHP.

True, although like almost everything about Gimenez's career offensive stats, his line against LHP is distorted by his 2022 season. In 2022 he put up a 159 wRC+ against LHP. In 2025 it was 39 wRC+ and in 2024 it was 64 wRC+. Trying to figure out exactly what one can expect from Gimenez is almost impossible. I'm optimistic about a bounce back, but I would be surprised if he put up either a 110 wRC+ season or a 75 wRC+ year.

Try again - that should be "wouldn't be".

In his breakout year, in 22, Geminez hit .336 against LHP with a .887 OPS.
He's got more power against RHP, but that's not a reason to platoon him.
Jesus Sanchez hits .181 against LHP with a .231 OBP.
Geminez hits .256 with a .310 OBP.

Last 3yrs vRHP / vLHP


Guerrero 137 / 152
Springer 125 / 102
Santander 116 / 109
Alejandro 101 / 106

Schneider 112 / 105
Lukes 109 / 83
Sanchez 113 / 38
Clement 90 / 114
Varsho 93 / 113
Barger 104 / 53
Gimenez 89 / 75
Straw 75 / 78


2yrs

Guerrero 147 / 165
Springer 138 / 103
Santander 115 / 101
Alejandro 106 / 106

Schneider 108 / 76
Lukes 111 / 91
Sanchez 112 / 35
Varsho 103 / 121
Clement 87 / 114
Barger 104 / 53
Gimenez 86 / 56
Straw 89 / 92


I dunno, Gimenez looks as platoon worth as anyone on the team. That's if he even deserves to start full time vRHP, which i'm not sure he does.

The same is true of his line against RHP.
He had no splits in 20, 22, 23.

Most starting lefties have reverse splits.
So, of course, it could make sense to pinch hit for him against a tough reliever, but in most cases it's probably better to have his glove in there against a tough starter.

Obviously, the real platoon is Sanchez who is not even a solid defender.
Next is Barger. 
  
Gimenez looks more like regression waiting to happen.

The worst possible outcome is if both Leo and Eloy both make the team, and we have to deal with Jimenez/Jimenez/Gimenez all season.

I mean, worse still would be Buck calling the games, trying to keep them straight.

It would be fun on double plays sometimes - ball hit to Jimenez, he throws it to Gimenez and the throw to Jimenez is in time for the double play!

Guessing no one noticed that Grichuk has signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. I thought he might have been a good combo with E Jimenez for LF - Grichuk 118/92 wRC+ vs LH/RH lifetime but just 89/69 last year so he might be washed up, but on a AAA deal like E Jimenez got would've been worth the tiny risk.

Ah well. Odds are nothing will come of him, just like 90% of minor league deals. Still, so hard to find a guy with big splits to mix/match with it seems nowadays - used to be tons around, but not so much anymore.

Eloy Jimenez is a much better option than Grichuk.
Schneider has looked good in left field and there's Shaw.

Jimenez would provide that scary bat off the bench in late innings.
He would basically have the Ty France role.

The last few times that the Jays have tried a right bat, it hasn't worked out.
France, IKF, Stefanic, Kennedy. Jordan Luplow in 23.

just wanted to check some defensive metrics for the potential outfielders. I'll look at last 2yrs. These stats are rate stats (per 150gms/1350inn) - DRS, URZ, and Statcast FRV:

CF

Straw: 546.1inn, +34.6drs, +22.9uzr, +17.3frv
Varsho: 1221.1inn, +28.7drs, +16.6uzr, +15.5frv
Springer: 77.0inn, +17.5drs, +77.3uzr, 0.0frv
Lukes: 240.0inn, -16.9drs, -9.0uzr, -16.9frv
Clase: 122.0inn, -22.1drs, -53.8uzr, 0.0frv
Sanchez: 63.0inn, -64.3drs, ----uzr, -42.9frv


RF

Lukes: 504.1inn, +24.1drs, +13.8uzr, +16.1frv
Sanchez: 1598.0inn, +4.2drs, +1.1uzr, +2.5frv
Barger: 587.0inn, -4.6drs, +5.2uzr, +4.6frv
Santander: 1242.1inn, -9.8drs, +1.6uzr, -5.4frv
Springer: 1313.1inn, -8.2drs, -6.0uzr, -10.3frv
Straw: 45.0inn, -30.0drs, ----uzr, 0.0frv


LF

Varsho: 404.1inn, +40.1drs, +16.2uzr, +26.7frv
Lukes: 338.0inn, +36.0drs, +31.7uzr, +8.0frv
Straw: 121.0inn, +44.6drs, ----uzr, +22.3frv
Santander: 58.0inn, +46.6drs, ----uzr, +23.3frv
Sanchez: 251.0inn, +16.1drs, -15.5uzr, +5.4frv
Schneider: 981.2inn, -2.8drs, -0.9uzr, +1.4frv
Clase: 287.1inn, +9.4drs, +1.4uzr, -9.4frv
Springer: 86.0inn, -15.9drs, ----uzr, -15.9frv
Barger: 55.0inn, -24.5drs, ----uzr, 0.0frv



Sanchez actually seems to be a solid enough defensive corner OF. And athletic enough that his managers have used him in CF more than a few times.

Lukes looks near elite in the corners, but so far hasn't been good at all in CF. But maybe he just needs reps there.

Ponce's outing yesterday gave off some Yariel Rodriguez vibes. Great FB velocity (95-97) but without a lot of movement and none of his secondaries looked overly impressive. His control looks better than Rodriquez though. He'll be interesting to watch for the rest of the spring as I'm not sure he's a lock for the starting rotation.

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan
BREAKING: Atlanta Braves designated hitter Jurickson Profar is facing a 162-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug for the second time, sources told ESPN.

I assume there are players who are cheating and getting away with it, so you really have to wonder about a guy who got caught two years in a row. Profar's making good money - couldn't he have hired a better trainer/pharmacist?

No kidding. Testing regimes are literally trying not to catch people - avoiding it isn't hard. Example -only 6 NFL players were suspended for PED's last year - so not exactly a challenge to avoid "surprise testing".

Players are tested at least once during the year and once during spring training as part of their physical.
So, obviously, a player shouldn't take anything before reporting.

In 2024, Profar tested positive for Chorionic Gonadotrophin a testosterone producing hormone.
No word on what he was using this time.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/03/out-of-options-2026.html

Out of Options

Angels
Jo Adell, OF
Vaughn Grissom, IF
Oswald Peraza, IF
Chase Silseth, SP/RP

Astros
Nick Allen, IF
Roddery Muñoz, RP
Isaac Paredes, IF
Nate Pearson, SP/RP
César Salazar, C

Athletics
Andy Ibáñez, IF
Luis Medina, SP/RP

Blue Jays
Ernie Clement, IF
Tyler Heineman, C
Leo Jiménez, IF
Tommy Nance, RP
Jesús Sánchez, OF

Braves
Bryce Elder, SP
Ian Hamilton, RP
Grant Holmes, SP
Joel Payamps, RP
José Suarez, SP/RP
Joey Wentz, SP/RP
Eli White, OF
Brett Wisely, IF/OF
Danny Young, RP

Brewers
Rob Zastryzny, RP

Cardinals
Justin Bruihl, RP
José Fermín, IF/OF
Iván Herrera, C
Riley O’Brien, RP
George Soriano, RP

Cubs
Jacob Amaya, C
Tyler Austin, 1B
Edward Cabrera, SP
Justin Steele, SP

Diamondbacks
Jorge Barrosa, OF
Pavin Smith, 1B/OF

Dodgers
Brock Stewart, RP

Giants
José Buttó, RP
Jerar Encarnación, 1B/OF
Matt Gage, RP
Sam Hentges, RP
Luis Matos, OF
Heliot Ramos, OF
Randy Rodríguez, RP

Guardians
Gabriel Arias, IF
Connor Brogdon, RP
Joey Cantillo, SP/RP
Matt Festa, RP
Nolan Jones, OF
Brayan Rocchio, IF

Mariners
Eduard Bazardo, RP
Cooper Criswell, RP
Casey Legumina, RP
Miles Mastrobuoni, IF/OF
Luke Raley, 1B/OF
Gabe Speier, RP
Carlos Vargas, RP

Marlins
Ronny Henriquez, RP
Janson Junk, SP/RP
Otto López, IF
Christopher Morel, IF
Tyler Phillips, RP

Mets
Vidal Bruján, IF/OF
Bryan Hudson, RP
Ben Rortvedt, C
Mark Vientos, IF

Nationals
Luis García Jr., IF
Richard Lovelady, RP
Keibert Ruiz, C
José Tena, IF

Orioles
Blaze Alexander, IF
Dietrich Enns, RP
Rico Garcia, RP
Jackson Kowar, RP
Bryan Ramos, IF
Colin Selby, RP
Leody Taveras, OF

Padres
Luis Campusano, C
Bryce Johnson, OF
Ron Marinaccio, RP
Randy Vásquez, SP
Matt Waldron, SP

Phillies
Jonathan Bowlan, RP
Rafael Marchán, C
Zach Pop, RP
Cristopher Sánchez, SP
Garrett Stubbs, C

Pirates
Joey Bart, C
Oneil Cruz, OF
Justin Lawrence, RP
Yohan Ramírez, RP

Rangers
Cole Winn, RP

Rays
Jonathan Aranda, 1B
Bryan Baker, RP
Garrett Cleavinger, RP
Yoendrys Gómez, SP/RP
Manuel Rodríguez, RP
Cole Sulser, RP
Edwin Uceta, RP
Ryan Vilade, IF/OF

Red Sox
Jovani Morán, RP

Reds
Sam Moll, RP
Tony Santillan, RP

Rockies
Jimmy Herget, SP/RP
Edouard Julien, IF
Jake McCarthy, OF
Mickey Moniak, OF
Keegan Thompson, SP/RP

Royals
Bailey Falter, SP/RP
Alex Lange, RP
Nick Mears, RP
Drew Waters, OF

Tigers
Drew Anderson, SP/RP
Jahmai Jones, IF/OF
Zach McKinstry, IF/OF

Twins
Anthony Banda, RP
Kody Clemens, IF/OF
Alex Jackson, C
James Outman, OF
Simeon Woods Richardson, SP

White Sox
Luisangel Acuña, IF/OF
Derek Hill, OF
Anthony Kay, SP
Korey Lee, C
Curtis Mead, IF
Everson Pereira, OF
Lenyn Sosa, IF
Miguel Vargas, IF

Yankees
Osvaldo Bido, SP/RP
Jorbit Vivas, IF

Not expecting any dumpster diving by the Jays in March, but they might sign a guy or two to AAA deals like they just did with Joe Mantiply (a meh reliever for years in Arizona who had a couple of good years, a few bad ones, overall 0.3 bWAR over 256 games 216 IP). Lots of guys like that hanging around. Guys who might get 5-20 IP for the Jays this year when injuries happen or guys get tired and the Jays call someone up for a few days.

Every year I aggregate the big professional prospect lists and usually there's 7. I've been waiting for Scotty Mitchell's Top 50 but a little research indicates that he never drops it this late - and a little more seems to indicate he's basically disappeared from TSN's site altogether. Anyone know what's up with Mitchell?

Anyway, that list aligns with the MLB list above perfectly on the top 8 positions, and the next six are the same guys just in varying orders. Three of the six sources have at least one outlier guy in the top 10.

With the caveat that a couple of the lists only go to 10 names so you get more vague the further down the list you go.

"Guys who might get 5-20 IP for the Jays this year when injuries happen or guys get tired and the Jays call someone up for a few days."

I wonder if there will be some of the remaining guys who see there's no major league opportunity available who might like to get a minor league deal with a team which has a great development reputation even it's just for the first couple of months before veterans can start opting out. Who knows (from their point of view) if events break in such a way that you get a call up.

Someone like Luis Urias for example, although you have to really squint to see anyone you'd think might get lucky.

But then, I don't really think Mantiply or Hahn or Seabold or Alcala or any of the other veteran journeymen will be a contributor either. Eloy's probably the only one with any kind of real shot.

as an aside, while trying to figure out the Mitchell mystery, I checked on Twitter to see if there was anything relevant there (no) and while I was there I looked in on Chris Black who was literally the last and only reason I ever still open it and he had posted last week that he was going to bail (though not for the noble reasons one might hope) but because he was going to stop giving away his (excellent) content and try to find a way to monetize it (presumably with a substack or something but I'd love to see his breakdowns in video format).

So, that's pretty much the last excuse I will ever have to open up the nazi cesspool.

lot of random chatter about whether or not the Jays run a six man rotation but I think maybe they don't clarify well enough. Even with 5 starters, when there are multiple off days in a month most games will have the SP going on 5 days' rest. Si I'd suggest that you use the 6th SP as a way to keep them on five days (but avoid whenever possible more than five)

With just 5 SP (and health) you can go through the first 20 games with only 2 being on 4 days (and 2 on 6 days because they're off on the 9th and 13th)

That provokes the question of what they intend to do with Yesavage which being slow-walked is arguably behind Scherzer now in terms of readiness. But if he's in the majors but presumably you want to use him before 4/29 and there's no an obvious opportunity. Even if they really mean the meritocracy thing, are they going to move off of Scherzer or Berrios or Ponce after only 3-4 turns?

But anyway, my point is that without adding a sixth SP to the schedule 23 of the first 29 games would see the SP have 5 (or more) days rest.

After that there's an opportunity to use a six man group for most of the rest of the first half with minimal adjustments to keep down the occurrence of more than 5 days off between turns. In other words, 5 days rest can/should be the default, rather than 4, just because it happens so regularly. (for teams that have the depth to)

Still, by the time you're on your 30th game you'd assume Yesavage is well beyond being ready and probably Bieber is too. Interesting times.

Still wondering if a significant trade could happen before the season. The Blue Jays have a lot of SPs and outfield depth.

The rotation as is will need to be doing some piggybacking...

• 5-7 IP day one: Gausman, Cease, maybe Berrios
• 4-6 IP, good for tandem starts: Ponce, Yesavage, Scherzer, Lauer - I see the Yesavage & Lauer as likely 2nd man in, with Ponce & Scherzer starting and going up to 5 IP, with the 2nd guy going 4, pen covers 8th/9th if needed.
• Pen: Hoffman-Rogers-Varland-Little-Bastardo-Fisher
• AAA: everyone else, but Nance is gone on waivers most likely, might keep Nance and send down Fisher for 90 days - the time Bastardo needs to be on the ML roster to keep him around.

This is constantly changing of course, with Bieber, Garcia both locks to be on the staff when healthy, plus Spencer Miles is a keep on the roster or lose him. Fluharty certainly deserves to be in the pen, and Lee is good enough too. It'll be a battle.

but because he was going to stop giving away his (excellent) content and try to find a way to monetize it


This sucks. Totally legitimate, but like a lot of things I wont be able to follow.

Not sure what a significant trade could look like at the moment. A few pitchers could be dealt, but only Nance is at high risk of being dumped along with the Rule 5 guys. The OF has a few extras, but none who'd be lost entirely, only sent to Buffalo. So the pressure isn't high imo, more a rejigging of assets - can you get anything decent for any of the assorted OFers and relievers? Maybe for one of the starters/potential starters? Unlikely right now, and with proper juggling they can all be used for the first month or so until Bieber comes back without too much trouble imo.

This is cool. Mark taking the time to personally conduct the tour really makes a difference

https://bluejaysaggr.com/media/watch/inside-the-blue-jays-100m-player-development-complex/309317

Jays don't really have anyone that would fetch anything in a trade, just guys out of options which other teams could claim on waivers.
At most, another team could offer a bit of cash to jump the waiver line.
Shaw would become a free agent and the Jays would end out paying is salary anyway.
Lukes has one option left even though he's getting old for AAA.
Schneider is the super utility guy right now.

Almost every team has a Leo Jimenez, a guy who played SS but hasn't hit at the MLB level.
Jays have Kasevich, Nimmala and Parker. Josh Rivera, Riley Tirotta and Rafael Lantigua could be used in a pinch.
Tommy Nance is a borderline  middle reliever. Even with Bastardo (or Miles) in the pen, the Jays have depth with Fluharty and Lee.

Scottt, I don't think a "big trade," refers to bubble guys struggling to stay on the 40 man. A big trade would mean trading away a player like Barger, Berrios, Santander or some hot shot prospects like Nimmala, Stanifer or King.

Example: Barger, Berrios, Tiedeman, Nimmala and cash balancing for Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall (or Royce Lewis) and Taylor Rogers.

That's what a "big trade," would mean for me.

I don’t think everyone has a Leo Jimenez unfortunately. Leo HAS hit at the mlb level. And at a young age.

Jimenez

A (20): 242pa, 168wrc+
A+ (21): 294pa, 109wrc+
AA (22): 333pa, 125wrc+
AAA (22): 77pa, 65wrc+
AAA (23): 226pa, 135wrc+
MLB (23): 210pa, 101wrc+

---- mystery injury ----

AAA (24): 71pa, 134wrc+
MLB (24): 32pa, -19wrc+


So there were 32 useless MLB PA for him last year coming off the mystery injury, but otherwise he's always hit, at fairly young prospect age for his levels.

He has a decent chance of being a league average hitter with a solid IF glove.

I think it's pretty clear that the jays have always really liked Kasevich beyond what his numbers suggest so far, and now he's having a scorching spring.

This could have an immediate impact on roster decisions.

I like both Jimenez and Kasevich, and I'll guess that the organization would like to keep both just in case.  It's good to be backed up with players who can play shortstop, and Nimmala and Parker are both likely a couple of years away at least.  

I'm biased - I a big fan of Jimenez and don't think Kasevich can hit as I've said before. A couple of things to note - Jimenez is actually 6 months younger than Kasevich and, as uo says, he's actually you know hit in the minors. So there's that. In Kasevich's favour I will note that he's a legit defender and he's bulked up so maybe that will help his offence. The difference for me is that I think Jimenez has more upside than Kasevich but if they lose Jimenez you can do a lot worse than Kasevich who you know will at least be able to give you good defence.

I think defensive scouting unless a prospect is on extreme ends of the spectrum, is one of the hardest parts to get down. Is Kasevich an excellent defender or a decent one? I don't know. When Jimenez first came up, he looked for very poor in the infield but that could have been nerves in a small sample size. Jimenez has showed a much better bat in the minors but Kasevich has all his options and Jimenez has none which is a big deal for utility types. I assume Jays will want to try to hold on to both for now. I would.

I agree about defensive scouting Glevin. I will say that I was at the Nat for a lot of games while Kasevich was in Vancouver. He played both SS and 3B while there. I thought Kasevich was almost exactly like Clement in the field. By that I mean, I thought he was above average to potentially a plus defender at 3B and at least average and maybe above average at SS. Even 15-20 games is still a small sample size though. He did put on one of the most putrid offensive displays I've ever seen from someone who was supposed to be an advanced college bat when drafted.

Bases loaded, one out.  Sale against Jesus Sanchez.  A 110 mph ground-ball into a double play, but it could just as easily have been a 2 run single.  I'll count that one as a win for Sanchez.  

https://x.com/BlueJays/status/2029624653535199556/photo/1

Spring Breakout Roster

PITCHERS (19)
Brandon Barriera, LHP, No. 22
Jake Bloss, RHP, No. 8
Micah Bucknam, RHP, No. 18
Austin Cates, RHP, NR
Javen Coleman, LHP, No. 23
Daniel Guerra, RHP, NR
Silvano Hechavarria, RHP, No. 14
Johnny King, LHP, No. 4
Adam Macko, LHP, No. 21
Landen Maroudis, RHP, NR
Carson Messina, RHP, No. 28
Fernando Perez, RHP, No. 16
Nolan Perry, RHP, NR
Grant Rogers, RHP, No. 30
Yondrei Rojas, RHP, NR
Jared Spencer, LHP, No. 27
Gage Stanifer, RHP, No. 6
Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, No. 5
Trey Yesavage, RHP, No. 1/MLB No. 12

CATCHERS (3)
Edward Duran, C, No. 19
Aaron Parker, C, NR
Brandon Valenzuela, C, No. 24

INFIELDERS (10)
Cutter Coffey, 3B, No. 25
Josh Kasevich, SS, No. 13
Sean Keys, 3B/1B, No. 17
Charles McAdoo, 3B/1B, No. 26
Arjun Nimmala, SS, No. 3/MLB No. 77
JoJo Parker, SS, No. 2/MLB No. 45
Tim Piasentin, 3B, No. 20
Adrian Pinto, INF, No. 29
Josh Rivera, SS, NR
Juan Sanchez, 3B, No. 7

OUTFIELDERS (8)
Victor Arias, OF, No. 12
Jace Bohrofen, OF, NR
Blaine Bullard, OF, No. 15
Jake Casey, OF, NR
Jake Cook, OF, No. 11
Eddie Micheletti, OF, NR
Yohendrick Pinango, OF, No. 10
RJ Schreck, OF, No. 9

Clubs initially submit a preliminary 40-man player pool on Thursday, March 5, which will then be pared down to the official 23-27 man rosters on March 18.

My bad

Nice to see that Schneider has started every game at 2B since the WBC guys left.

Barger also has had every 3B start since.

Kasevich had the first SS starts, but today Nimmala got the start.

How the heck is Jake Bloss on the Breakout roster? He can't be game ready yet. Is it basically just permission to be there and hang with the team?

My bad. Official roster in about 2 weeks

With respect to Kasevich, his exit velocities have never been the problem (they've always been pretty good), it's that he doesn't pull the ball in the air very much, so he doesn't use his strength to actually generate power. Making that adjustment is more important than having more raw strength.

Yes my recollection of Kasevich's scouting report (which admittedly I haven't looked at in at least a year) is that he hit the ball surprisingly hard for someone with his profile but rarely for damage. Besides that he seems like a high floor, high intangibles player based on Pipelines description. If Popkins and the hitting staff can figure out a way for him to maintain his great contact skill while adding a bit more damage in there, then he becomes an interesting player, especially if he can stick at SS. He's in the right organization for someone with his skill set.

A large trade involving several regulars in the middle of spring training would be fairly disruptive.
It might be surprising to some but players like stability.

I'm not expecting any "big trade" until the deadline--depending on what the team might need.
They accumulated depth to avoid that type of scenario.

MLB pipeline has the Jays as having the #15 system which I think is fair.

As for trade possibilities, I kinda expect a marginal one or two but more in terms of roster management.

Tommy Nance, Angel Bastardo, and Spencer Miles (at least) are three guys n the margin that won't fit in one roster spot. Assuming health, they are not all going to stay in the system without trades. The Rule 5 guys you can keep if you can give the source team someone they'd rather have. Would the Giants let you keep Miles if you gave them Leo Jimmenez (for example)?

Similarly, they can be traded to another team willing to keep them in the majors for the required period of time. For example, let's presume the Pirates would let go of Nick Gonzales because Griffin is on the doorstep (just to set up the example, I have no idea if they would) and they would do so in order to take a chance on Bastardo. It's just 90 days, right?

As for Nance, I understand the fungibility and the chance that any reliever - particularly one that blossomed so late in life - might turn back into a pumpkin limits their value...but I also why a team like the Giants (they have Matt Gage potentially making the roster) or Cardinals (Justin Bruihl) among others wouldn't give up a little something more than cash to jump the waiver claim line. Maybe, probably, a complete lottery ticket but I don't get it when a team just lets a guy go for nothing.

Same applies to Jimenez. Is he better than Brooks Lee (Twins)? Maybe. Do the Braves need to shore up after Kim's injury? Maybe. Not a few teams have mediocre hitters who lack above average defense at 2B. He'll get a job, but will any team try to jump the line. I dunno, but it's possible.

I don't disagree that you're not going to go out and nab Marte or Abrams or whomever in March though.

I sort of get the feeling that if they just keep trading their prospects, it feeds the narrative that they are not that good and it comes with diminutive returns.
They need some good cheap position players as much as any other team.
Also, guys parachuted here in March don't always land on their feet.

As for Nance, I understand the fungibility and the chance that any reliever - particularly one that blossomed so late in life - might turn back into a pumpkin limits their value...but I also why a team like the Giants (they have Matt Gage potentially making the roster) or Cardinals (Justin Bruihl) among others wouldn't give up a little something more than cash to jump the waiver claim line. Maybe, probably, a complete lottery ticket but I don't get it when a team just lets a guy go for nothing."

It depends what you mean by lottery ticket. If you mean a 19 YO starter who throws hard but is wild, you're not getting that for Nance. If you mean a 26 YO pitcher in AA who has a chance to be a middle reliever or a 22 YO in A ball who has change to be 5th OF, sure, you can maybe get that but you probably don't particularly want that because you already have a bunch of guys like that. End of roster guys are let go for nothing because they generally have no value. There are just tons of guys like Nance around. A young player like Jimenez would get you back something but lack of options mean his market is very limited and his value is diminished enormously. Jays better off keeping him probably and seeing if he can prove some value.

somehow i think that health/milb eligibility will save them from making any tough pitching calls to start.

None of Bieber, Yesavage, Scherzer, Hoffman, Garcia, Tiedemann have thrown in a game yet and they could use reasons/shenanigans to keep any of them off the roster for a bit.

The guys expected to make the team that have actually thrown in games so far:

Gausman
Cease
Ponce
Berrios
Lauer

Varland
Rogers
Little
Fisher
Fluharty
Nance

Of the fringey guys, Lee and Bastardo have pitched and looked good, Yariel and Miles have pitched and looked bad.

I think that's right uo. I think Scherzer is the one starter who might be ready for opening day - in which case it would be between Lauer and Ponce for the rotation. I'd bet on Lauer right now but there's miles to go. I think Yariel is headed for Buffalo at best.

Yariel likes pitching for Cuba, looks like. 7 up 7 down.

Manager's health reports today were very positive for Bieber, not positive at all for Tiedemann, and cautious for Yesavage.

Unfortunately, Davis Schneider hasn't hit a lick this spring.

Canada doing well today - up 7-2 after getting things a bit nervous in the 8th - Columbia had the go ahead run up to bat in Geo Urshela (Canada up 4-2 at the time with 2 on 2 out). 9th still going as I type this. Lots of fun to watch.

Columbia making outs on the bases.
Harold Ramirez looking really bad in left field.

Caissie on his HR, "He hung the sh*t out of it."

8-2 final. Yay! Gotta keep runs against low as that is the tiebreaker after head to head.

Huh, Scherzer 4 no hit innings, 1 walk, 1 K, 40 pitches 29 strikes-11 balls. 2 ground outs, 3 fly outs. Nice.

Nice to see Aumont do his thing, maybe for the last time at 37.

Collision between Otto Lopez and Denzel Clark and they still make the out.
For some reason, Colombia didn't use their challenge even though there was many close plays.

Impressive result for Scherzer considering that he only managed to throw one strike during his outing. Per Sportsnet:

The veteran righty went four innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday in his spring training debut and gave up zero runs or hits with one strike and a walk in that span

It looked to me like Aumont was throwing a R.A. Dickey knuckleball

1-nothing win.
Neither team did much today.
Maybe everybody is watching the WBC?