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The Blue Jays are rumoured to be in on Mike Clevinger, Lance Lynn, Mike Minor (??), Johnathan Villar, Brian Goodwin and almost every other name on the market.

Contrary to what some people were thinking a few weeks ago (including myself), it looks like there may be a number of deals today.

Hereís todayís open thread.

Short Season Trade Deadline Thread | 303 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#389593) #
Go big, jays.

One more frontline pitcher and the team might be legit.
bpoz - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#389594) #
Our young core is still developing. We need to wait. Shapiro and Atkins don't have to worry about their jobs. They may actually leave the Jays for better situations.

In the early 90s we went for it with expensive FAs and the D Cone trade that cost us J Kent who was blocked by Alomar. We got 2 WS titles from that. We also had the largest payroll. That payroll was before the craziness of today's spending.

Boston had to wait for their GM to fail (no playoffs) before firing him after 2019.



uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#389595) #
Dang, Padres get clevinger.
bpoz - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#389596) #
We definitely need more front line SPs and a closer. I am hoping for 3 more front line SPs. Pearson, Manoah, SWR, Pardhino I hope will give us 2. Pardhino has to move fast to get here and contribute by 2023.

I also think there will be surprise successes. Kay, Hatch, SRF, Borucki and others may become solid #3s. We will know more by the end of the season.
Thomas - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#389597) #
I'm not going to rue a missed opportunity on Clevinger until I see what San Diego paid.

He makes a ton of sense for their young core.
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#389598) #
Now, that is a big trade.

The supreme irony would be that one of the new Padres picks up the virus on the way.

bpoz - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#389600) #
Happy that NYY did not get Clevinger.

Boston should have gone for him. Clevinger, Sale, Evoidi and E Rodriguez are a good rotation when/if healthy for 2021 and 2022. Red Sox don't like rebuilds.
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#389603) #
I don't know what Boston could have offered.
They'll need another 2 years before they can trade the prospects they'll sign next year.

NYY might have decided to roll the dice with Garcia.

dalimon5 - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#389604) #
Quantrill, Naylor and Arias are all going to CLE...unless someone like Gore is added to this trade then you have to think this is a trade the Jays could have matched with Gurriel Jr, Kay and high upside low ball prospect.

Gurriel has more value, way more than Naylor. Kay has much less value than Quantrill who was a former first rounder and top prospect. So it's pretty even in my books.

This tells me Cleveland wanted Manoah or SWR and the Jays hung up.
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#389605) #
Gabriel Arias, a very good young shortstop who can replace Lindor. Only 19 but OPS over 800 at A+ ball last year. #6 in Padres system.

Cal Quantrill, Josh Naylor.

Thomas - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#389607) #
Robothal is reporting that Cleveland received two Canadians as part of the return.

Apparently, the deal is Greg Allen and Clevinger for Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges, Joey Cantillo, Gabriel Arias and Owen Miller.

That's potentially two or three Top 10 prospects, depending on your rankings, and at least Top 15, from a stacked farm system, as well as two MLB-ready contributors in Naylor and Quantrill.

It's a significant return, but San Diego didn't touch their Top 5 prospects (Gore, Abrams, Patino, Campusano, Morejon [some may have had Trammell, but he's not in the system now]).
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#389608) #
It always depends on the specific prospects, of course, but in general getting Clevinger for 3 B-/C prospects and 3 lesser ones seems like the kind of deal I'd have liked to make.
85bluejay - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#389609) #
Cleveland is apparently getting Josh Naylor as part of the deal - I like his LHB and wonder if the Jays can pry him away for maybe more experienced outfielder/package
dalimon5 - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#389610) #
Clevinger trade is a win for both teams. CLE get a huge haul. San Diego looks to compete against LAD. Their rotation looks stacked this year and next with more i the pipeline. It hurts to give up Quantrill but it's clearly best for the team. They have 2-3 high upside SP's who are pitching out of the pen right now (Morejon, Quantrill, etc).

Quantrill would have been nice in Toronto. Cal for Gurriel Jr would have been nice.
85bluejay - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#389611) #
That's a great deal for Cleveland and with their ability to develop pitchers, a great place for Quantrill to land.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#389612) #
He's also only a 5 hour drive from his family home in Port Hope now. He has his dad's Ford dealership to fall back on if it doesn't work out in the show...this kid went to school with my sister.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#389613) #
Does this haul cement Lindor to Toronto in the offseason? He has 2 years left on his contract. CLE and Antonetti might be supplanting the Rays as best run organization in baseball.
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#389614) #
Unless Bo can't stay healthy I don't see Lindor to Toronto whatsoever.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#389616) #
So the Padres prospects traded are:

Gabriel Arias SS ( Ranked 7 )
Joey Cantillo LHP ( ranked 9 )
Owen Miller SS/2B ( ranked 11 )
Austin Hedges C age 28 Starting catcher, had a poor year in 2019
Cal Quantrill RHP and Josh Naylor 1B/OF Canadians who have played a bit on the big league roster
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#389618) #
Even if Bo can't stay healthy and certainly not for a couple of years.
Thomas - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#389619) #
I'm not sure exactly where those rankings are from Island Boy, but generally, yeah.

And Quantrill and Naylor were both Top 10 prospects in San Diego's system last year, basically.

Also, San Diego's system is so strong, getting 7, 9 and 11 is probably equivalent to much higher prospects in many other systems.
Thomas - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#389622) #
Mike Minor to the A's.
85bluejay - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#389623) #
Minor apparently to A's , so maybe Cobb/Iglesias to the Jays? just walk across the diamond.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#389625) #
I got these rankings from MLB.com, Thomas. Just like any team, their ranking might be different at Baseball America or some other site but I just posted it so people could get a general idea of their value in the trade.
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#389629) #
By grades, 7-11 prospects in the SD system are very similar to 7-11 prospects in the Jays system.

Jays could have done 1 catcher, 2 middle infielders and one pitcher but they don't have a spare outfielder which is what Cleveland needs the most and I'm not sure Naylor helps there this year.
Also the Jays middle infielders are further away.

bpoz - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#389630) #
I saw the same thing ISLAND BOY.

Preller is doing well IMO. A desperate GM. Don't take on any rich contracts. Make the playoffs at least 2X in the next 4/5 years counting this year. You get to keep your job. Prellers should stop now while he still has his top 5 prospects. Actually he has a lot of young guys left in his top 20. So he can do this again next year.
Cracka - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#389631) #
I think Cleveland got a very nice haul for a guy that was recently voted off the team by his peers & leaders. He's certainly not the first guy to make a big mistake, but I can't remember another incident where an established veteran was rejected so thoroughly. I'm very glad we didn't try to match that offer.
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#389633) #
Minor is the most expensive player to be traded, so a bit surprised that the notoriously cheap A's are getting him without Texas retaining any salary.
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#389634) #
Dang, clevdnger and minor were the two legit Frontline guys. All the other guys are a likely step down.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#389636) #
I think the Padres made a heck of a deal to get Clevinger and gained a significant amount of value in the process. A lot of the players heading to Cleveland are post hype prospects.
Thomas - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#389640) #
The Jays have acquired Robbie Ray from Arizona, as well as cash, for Travis Bergen.
Cracka - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#389641) #
Robbie Ray? I sincerely hope we did not surrender anything of value for a guy who has walked 31 and allowed 31 hits in 31 IP this season.
Glevin - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#389642) #
Great move. Ray struggles with control but has amazing stuff. He's the kind of guy who can be dominant in stretches and maybe if you tweak something, you can get more and Bergen is a fungible reliever.
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#389643) #
Cleveland is maybe the best organization in turning undervalued raw material into legit starting pitchers.

Be a few years before the trade can be truly assessed, but I'm definitely giving the benefit of the doubt to Cleveland.
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#389644) #
Ray has been effective against lefties even this year.  You could use him in the pen and move Kay into the rotation. 
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#389645) #
Maybe like the Liriano trade with the the Astros where they moved him to the pen.
mathesond - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#389646) #
Ray was a key player on my fantasy league winning team from 3 years ago. For that reason there is a soft spot in my heart for him.
pubster - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#389647) #
Buy low sell high.

This move (and the Vogelbach move) seems to follow that principle fairly well.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#389648) #
Big thumbs up on the Ray acquisition, itís fair to see optimism in his three years prior and not 7 starts this year. I never held much stock in Bergen.
Glevin - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#389649) #
"Ray has been effective against lefties even this year. You could use him in the pen and move Kay into the rotation."

Yup but I'd rather give him a rotation shot. If he improves his command (which is a big if) he's an elite pitcher. I'd much rather take a shot on a guy like this then go for a Trevor Williams type.
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#389650) #
Ray wasn't an elite pitcher in 2018 or 2019. 
Magpie - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#389652) #
Ray wasn't an elite pitcher in 2018 or 2019.

But he was certainly pretty decent. The team obviously thinks there's something wrong mechanically that can be fixed, that it's not Steve Blass Disease. And hey - how much did you pay for the ticket?
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#389653) #
Right.  But, personally I like Anthony Kay's chances of being decent as a starter better than Robbie Ray's for the rest of the season. If it were May (Kay and Ray, there's a song there somewhere), I would be a lot more comfortable saying that you could fix Ray and he could give you give value over the remainder.  2020 is weird, as you have said.
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#389654) #
Well, we should be aware of how the jays work.

The value of course is there, as always. The upside is limited, though, and the downside is seen his 2020 stats to date.
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#389655) #
Apparently the Jays will end up paying over $1 million for a month of Robbie Ray. Seems a lot if they only use him in relief, even if that's where he may be best suited.
James W - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#389656) #
Jon Heyman's latest twitt says simply: "Villar to Jays".
Shoeless Joe - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#389657) #
Villar is a good fit, hopefully low cost
Magpie - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#389658) #
Villar is a switch-hitter with no real platoon split - he's probably a slightly better overall hitter RH though he seems to have a little more power LH.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#389659) #
Anything designed to cut back Travis Shaw's 3 hole in the line up is good by me.
pubster - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#389660) #
"The upside is limited"

Ray has averaged 12K/9innings for the past 4 seasons.

Thats pretty high upside. (Im thinking Brendan Morrow)
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#389661) #
He would seem to be a downgrade defensively at 3B from Shaw, and probably not an offensive upgrade.

Fully healthy I would slot Villar in as a bench guy still I think - though of course he is fully able to go on hot streaks that make him a useful starter too
85bluejay - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#389662) #
Ray again illustrates the folly of a non-contending team holding on to a diminishing asset too long.I like the gamble for the jays and would definitely use him as a starter initially and then you can move him to the pen if he falters.
grjas - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#389663) #
Given the injury record in the majors this year, Iím fine stockpiling pitchers that can start. Weíre one injury away from a challenge again, so having Ray around does offer some projections. I also would like to see them try Kay though and drop Ray into the bullpen to sort things out.

Villar should help. He can shift to third when Bo returns, and hopefully Panik is punted far from Buffalo.
85bluejay - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#389664) #
Would really like to see acquire a productive LHB.
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#389665) #
Man the stats really loves Villar's baserunning.

Fangraphs combined projections rest of year:

Shaw: 88pa, -0.4bat, -0.1bsr, +0.2fld, +0.2pos, +0.3war
Villar: 114pa, -1.3bat, +0.5bsr, -0.4fld, +0.6pos, +0.3war
Shoeless Joe - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#389666) #
I donít see Villar replacing Shaw, but I do see him as better than Joe Panik.

Robbie Ray just adds pitching depth. I agree with Mike that Kay might make a better starter and it might be better to put Ray in his slot in the pen.

Chase Anderson was also dealing today.
Glevin - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#389667) #
Griffin Conine the price for Villar. He's a good power prospect but a LOT of swing and miss in his game he'll need to figure out if he is going to move up levels.
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#389668) #
According to Craig Mish, the Marlins ďfelt Villar is still an extremely talented player but played reckless at times, and never fully bought in to what they are trying to do.Ē

Assuming the Jays pick up Villar's remaining salary, I don't expect much of a prospect going back to the Marlins.

And if that's true we have a response to the earlier comment "Well, we should be aware of how the jays work."
In this case just like pre-2015 AA, getting a bad makeup guy cheap.
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#389669) #
Depth Chart Projections, Rest of Season:

1. SS Bichette 116wrc+, 4.2war/650
2. 2B Biggio 107wrc+, 3.1war/650
3. 1B Guerrero 125wrc+, 2.6war/650
4. RF Hernandez 110wrc+, 1.8war/650
5. CF Grichuk 108wrc+, 2.5war/650
6. DH Tellez 102wrc+, 0.9war/650
7. 3B Shaw 97wrc+, 2.2war/650
8. LF Gurriel 94wrc+, 1.3war/650
9. C Jansen 85wrc+, 2.9war/650

B. PH Vogelbach 106wrc+, 1.8war/650*
B. OF Fisher 93wrc+, 1.6war/650*
B. IF Villar 91wrc+, 1.7war/650
B. C McGuire 66wrc+, 1.6war/650*

* = (misleadingly) based seemingly on a strict platoon projection


Magpie - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#389670) #
Kevin Pillar to the Rockies, who happen to have a black hole in centre field.
Cracka - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#389671) #
Griffin Conine reported as the return for Villar. A top power bat, not insignificant, but probably fair.
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#389672) #
Conine was no longer a real prospect from my point (not just horrific K numbers but old for his levels too).

So yeah - another value add with imo limited upside.

Still - I didn't like our depth coming into the year and villar/vogelbach are nice upgrades there.

uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#389673) #
Gotta say it made me happy to see Pillar handily outplay the always overrated Jackie Bradley Jr in Boston.
Magpie - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#389674) #
Wilmer Font? With a one-run lead?
Shoeless Joe - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#389676) #
According to future values Connine was a slight overpay, but I remain more upset that they traded Will Robertson than Conine.
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#389677) #
See other thread, Magpie.  I like Font better than you do, but I wouldn't have done that. 
James W - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#389678) #
Wilmer Font? With a one-run lead?

I believe the Jays will get a charitable donation credit in the state of Maryland for this...
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#389679) #
Pitching projections:

SP Ryu: 3.72era, 3.2war/32
SP Ray: 4.76era, 1.9war/32
SP Anderson: 5.06era, 1.6war/32
SP Walker: 5.05era, 1.3war/32
SP Roark: 5.16era, 1.3war/32
(SP Pearson: 5.14era, 3.2war/32)
(SP Shoemaker: 5.15era, 2.1war/32)
Magpie - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#389682) #
I'm in the Control Panel and I have selected the font I wish to delete.
greenfrog - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#389683) #
Conine was the Jays #18 prospect, according to BA.

He's a good high-risk addition for Miami. I don't hold out a lot of hope that he can be a quality major-leaguer, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility that he could succeed as a three true outcomes RF.
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#389684) #
I wasn't as high on Conine as the consensus.  I saw him in Vancouver, and was much more impressed with Otto Lopez.

It's been a nice and active deadline for the Jays.  They've acquired several pieces that will help them.  We'll see what they do after the game to make space. 
Glevin - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#389685) #
Montoyo sure has a quick hook. I mean, Anderson was dominant and only through 84 pitches. Why the need to go to a middle reliever there? It's something he does quite often as well.
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#389686) #
I am pretty sure that most of us would have preferred that he stick with Anderson. Or, if he was going to go with some other pitcher, that he choose somebody, anybody, other than Font.
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#389687) #
Montoyo didn't have a quick hook yesterday.
We have one of the best pens in baseball. Just has to be used properly, not Font protecting a 1 run lead.
85bluejay - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#389688) #
Montoyo can't win - yesterday there was criticism of him sticking with Roark and today for pulling Anderson - the life of a manager I guess.
Glevin - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#389689) #
"Montoyo can't win - yesterday there was criticism of him sticking with Roark and today for pulling Anderson - the life of a manager I guess."

I was fine sticking with Roark. He should have there. It just didn't work out. He has generally a very quick hook which is annoying. Ryu hasn't even thrown 100 pitches in a start yet this year and has been taken out twice despite cruising at under 90 pitches.
Cynicalguy - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#389690) #
Jays would see a big upgrade if Reese McGuire pulls a hamstring and they call up Alejandro Kirk :) And then call up Martin to play 3B.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#389691) #
It's all about Montoyo going with inferior options when a better alternative is available (whether leaving that person in the game or bringing them off the bench).
Magpie - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#389692) #
I'm actually fine with Montoyo's reluctance to go deep with his starters. It's a very weird season, and the starters did not have a normal spring training to get stretched out properly. (Because meaningful competition simply isn't how they normally get stretched out.) Having thrown them into battle with inadequate preparation, continued caution seems only prudent.

Which doesn't justify Wilmer Freaking Font.
Glevin - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#389693) #
Late trade. Jays getting Ross Stripling from Dodgers. He was a good pitcher in 2018 and 2019. No word on what Jays gave up but they really improved team this deadline.
Magpie - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#389694) #
The first thing I always check with any pitcher coming from the Dodgers is the Home-Road splits and Stripling doesn't appear to be a creation of Dodger Stadium. Home ERA is 3.32, Road ERA is 4.04 but that appears to be pretty random. Hits and HRs allowed is the same home and away. Slightly more Ks and BBs on the road.
Thomas - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#389695) #
The price for Stripling is apparently 2 PTBNLs. No word yet on who they may be.
Spifficus - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#389696) #
The one thing that jumps out at me is the change in Stripling's slider at midway through 2019, where it lost a few MPH, and gained more depth. I'm wondering if he might be better served going back to his old slider (or maybe not).
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#389697) #
Stripling was very good in September 2019. For whatever that's worth. 

He had some bicep tendinitis in July and spent some time on the DL.
Michael - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#389698) #
Trades this year seem good/smart. Not the impact of a Price, Donaldson, Tulo type trade (but this isn't the right time/team for that kind of trade), but just very solid depth / average players to add to the team for a reasonable sounding price. (assuming the PTBNL are all non-top prospects as generally reported).
Spifficus - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#389699) #
When I was looking, I figured that had more to do a good command stretch, but it's also possible one begot the other.
Spifficus - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#389700) #

Seems Eno Sarris confirms what I was thinking:

"Stripling has a new release point which has done weird things to his slider, but if he can correct that slide, heís got the "four pitches with command of all four" approach that he told me he tried to pattern after former/current teammate Hyun-Jin Ryu."

Of course, that doesn't mean revert back to the old one - he could simply mean get command of the new slider.

85bluejay - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#389701) #
I have to say i give a hearty thumbs up to this trade deadline for the jays - didn't give away the farm and took a gamble on some players that maybe can rebound plus trading away fringy guys like Bergen and Conine who would need 40 man roster spots this winter clears some needed room. This team isn't good enough yet to trade premium prospects except for long term assets.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#389702) #
Regarding taking Chase Anderson out of the game, I'm with Buck Martinez who said," Sometimes you just got to trust your eyes." Managers today are slaves to numbers and analytics but sometimes maybe they should just go by how the pitcher is performing. Anderson had retired 12 in a row, limited the Orioles to 3 hits, no walks, and had thrown 84 pitches. Maybe today was the day to let him pitch another inning instead of bringing in the guy with the 9.30 ERA.
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#389703) #
I can't get too excited about this deadline - nice to have the added depth but none of the new guys are even necessarily locks for the starting rotation or starting lineup if we get near healthy.
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#389704) #
Conine won't be Rule 5 eligible till after next season.

Maybe the Jays should have left Anderson in for another inning. Results would have been better than Font, who may be a DFA candidate when everyone reports. But I doubt the decision is just Montoyo and the analytics guys. Pete Walker would definitely have a say.
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#389705) #
Zero chance that they call up Kirk. He doesn't have to be added the 40 roster this year.
They could call Riley Adams though.

Will Robertson is the Jays 26th prospect (mlb).
Connine is 16th, but has not progressed, got that suspension, and is not in the 60 players pool.
No idea what the cost for Ross Stripling is though. That guy really wants to start and could be a decent 4th-5th guy in the rotation.

Font is one of the guy I'd like to see dropped to make room for the new guys, but I think he plays poker with Montoyo on Mondays.

greenfrog - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#389706) #
It seems that Bergen's stuff has ticked up a notch. This is from the Fangraphs article on the Ray-Bergen trade:

"Bergenís stock has risen recently, however, due to a substantial uptick in his velocity. Eric Longenhagen recently added him to THE BOARD, having this to say about his development:

"Both before and immediately after his shoulder injury, Bergen was pitching with below-average velocity, sitting 89-92. He has had a spike in 2020 and is now sitting 93-95 and touching 96. He also has a big-breaking curveball averaging nearly 2900 rpm. All of this has come in concert with a delivery that looks more fluid and explosive. Heís a big league-ready lefty middle relief piece with three options remaining, and I expect heíll live on the active roster membrane for a while.

Bergen has made just one appearance for the Blue Jays this season, striking out three batters in 1.2 innings. He should get ample opportunities to work out of the Diamondbacks bullpen, which has posted the seventh-highest ERA in the majors this season."
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#389707) #
First time through the lineup Santander doubled and Igglesias singled him home.
Second time, the top 3 all put balls in play.
They wanted some strike outs and they got one, but after Santander hit a double that scored the tying run.
I would have preferred Cole.

uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#389708) #
Lol Scottt! ;)


ShiDavidi's avatar
Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
The #BlueJays have added highly regarded catching prospect Alejandro Kirk to their taxi squad, per sources. He's flying with the club to Miami.

7:39pm ∑ 31 Aug 2020 ∑ Twitter Web App
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#389709) #
Yeah, the velo was fine, but he didn't seem to command the fastball.
Maybe he only got the call up as a showcase.

Borucki figures to live in the "active roster membrane" for he Jays, although he could only get one out today.

As things are going, I'd be surprised if Hatch doesn't earn a starting spot next year.

scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#389710) #
Taxi squad doesn't count as 40 roster spot, but interesting move.

85bluejay - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#389711) #
Thanks for the correction hypobole - it seemed Conine had been around longer and my low opinion of his prospect status didn't help.
85bluejay - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#389712) #
In gambling on fixing Ray and Stripling, the Jays are putting a lot of faith in Pete Walker and their analytics.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#389713) #
Stripling and Ray both have good fastball spin rates, which the Blue Jays tend to value.
Cynicalguy - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#389714) #
Things can get interesting in the Bullpen.
Need to add Ray and Stripling soon. Then 3 spots for Giles, Shoemaker and Pearson. Who do you take out from the bullpen. In reality, injuries would likely make the decision straightforward.

Currently we have:
Bass
Borucki
Cole
Dolis
Hatch
Kay
Yamaguchi
Merryweather
Font
Reid-Foley
Waguespack
John Northey - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#389715) #
So, via MLB Trade Rumors... (in brackets the earliest season they are free agents after)
  • Acquired 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach (2024) from Mariners for cash considerations (was an All-Star last year)
  • Acquired RHP Taijuan Walker (2020) from Mariners for a player to be named later (great first start here)
  • Acquired LHP Robbie Ray (2020) from Diamondbacks for LHP Travis Bergen (12+ K/9 each of the past 4 years, walk an inning this year - welcome Nuke)
  • Acquired INF/OF Jonathan Villar (2020) from Marlins for a player to be named later (reportedly OF Griffin Conine) (leads NL in SB and in CS)
  • Acquired RHP Ross Stripling (2022) from Dodgers for two players to be named later (all star in 2018, 110 ERA+ lifetime but leads NL in HR allowed this year)
So added 3 pitchers, an INF/OF and a DH/1B over the past few days, losing cash, 3 PTBNL, a guy they temporarily had lost to Rule 5, and Conine.

Sounds good to me. Assuming the 3 PTBNL are not top 10 prospects or anything like that. Lots of buying low there plus 3 of the 5 new guys are free agents so not long term unless resigned. Stripling will be in the rotation for sure I'd think, Ray might be in the pen, Walker is a lock now. Next challenge will be the shuffling of players to the minors and taxi squad. Santiago Espinal is back in the taxi once Villar gets here (tomorrow I'm assuming), 2 pitchers need to go - hopefully Font, and probably Waguespack or SRF. Sadly I expect it to be Waguespack and SRF :(
hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:07 AM EDT (#389716) #
Bit surprised by our former wheeler-dealer ninja GM. He's got one starter who's pitched like a legit ace, a rookie who's made one start and a bunch of dreck for a rotation and his only move was Tommy Milone, who's first start for the Braves consisted of 7 outs and 7 runs.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:29 AM EDT (#389717) #
Wonder if Russell Martin would be interested in coming out of forced retirement to be the backup catcher as Reese McGuire has had a year from hell. Solid D but a negative OPS+ with a sub 100 Avg. Just 38 PA so a simple 4-4 would do wonders (could jump him from a .088 to .184 avg, adding nearly 200 points to his OPS). Of course, he is just 3-34 so far with 0 walks and 9 K's (when you have 3 times as many K's as hits you are in deep trouble). Maybe call up Caleb Joseph given he has been sitting on the taxi squad quite a bit (yeah 40 man slot needed, but surely there is someone who can be cut).
uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 03:27 AM EDT (#389718) #
Pitching projections with Stirpling:

SP Ryu: 3.72era, 3.2war/32
SP Ray: 4.76era, 1.9war/32
SP Anderson: 5.06era, 1.6war/32
SP Walker: 5.05era, 1.3war/32
SP Roark: 5.16era, 1.3war/32

SP Stripling: 5.00era, 1.1war/32
(SP Pearson: 5.14era, 3.2war/32)
(SP Shoemaker: 5.15era, 2.1war/32)
Jonny German - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 05:33 AM EDT (#389719) #
What's the source of those projections?

To me they look pessimistic overall. And I'd be interested to know how/if the model behind them accounts for usage - the Jays have been very quick to go to the bullpen this year, which naturally reduces starter's ERA.
grjas - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#389720) #
ďWho do you take out from the bullpen.Ē

Please let it be Font!

Good trade deadline for Atkins. Lots of SP depth in a year of injuries, very deep bullpen and maybe just maybe a half decent infielder floater. Excited to see Villarís running ability. Adds another dimension to the offence.
bpoz - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#389721) #
DFA'd Drury and Gaviglio. Drury has an option left I believe. So they risk losing him (probably Ok with the FO), unless they still believe that they can fix him.
scottt - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#389722) #
They didn't trade anyone form the current roster, which is good but that means DFAs.

Drury and Gaviglio were DFAed yesterday.

I would guess Panik and Font are next if more are needed.

Pannone has cleared waivers and is still in the players pool.

They can start both Ray and Stripling because of the Friday doubleheaders.


Mike Green - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#389723) #
There are special rules for catchers on the taxi squad.  In addition to traveling with the club on road trips, they can catch bullpens for the pitchers on the big club at home.  The addition of Kirk to the taxi squad seems to me to be significant from a development perspective- they are treating him as if he was close to being a major leaguer. 

Rowdy Tellez seems to have taken a step forward (sample size alert).  His K rate is way down.  His W rate is up.  His hard-hit rate is up (to an impressive 46%- major league average is 34%).  I'd like to see him playing every day.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#389724) #
Jonny those are the combined zips/steamer projections. Let me see if they changed any over night...

Pitching projections with Stirpling:

SP Ryu: 3.72era, 3.8war/32
SP Ray: 4.79era, 2.4war/32
SP Anderson: 4.85era, 1.6war/32
SP Walker: 5.05era, 1.3war/32
SP Roark: 5.16era, 1.6war/32

SP Stripling: 5.02era, 1.1war/32
(SP Pearson: 5.14era, 3.2war/32)
(SP Shoemaker: 5.15era, 1.6war/32)



Compared to their current stats:

SP Ryu: 2.92era, 5.0war/32
SP Anderson: 3.20era, 3.2war/32
SP Walker: 3.27era, 1.6war/32
SP Roark: 5.33era, -1.1war/32
SP Stripling: 5.61era, -2.3war/32
SP Ray: 7.84era, -1.8war/32

(SP Shoemaker: 4.91era, -0.6war/32)
(SP Pearson: 6.61era, -2.4war/32)


scottt - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#389725) #
Most likely Espinal has dislodged Drury for good.
They sort of liked Drury's attitude which was a lot like Grichuk's, but constantly failing is hard and Drury looked like a lost soul on the bench. He can't say he didn't get a fair shot. Ironically, they should have stuck with Urshela and his 68 OPS+ as their third base backup.

They have better options than Gaviglio and Pannone.

Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#389726) #
With the progress with Tellez I did not see the need for Vogelbach.
scottt - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#389727) #
Tellez can hit the junk if it's in the strike zone.

scottt - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#389728) #
Vogelbach is a project for Dante Bichette and Guillermo Martinez.

uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#389729) #
Rowdy's line still has weirdness in it.

vLHP he's got awful k/bb splits but a high babip thanks to a high line drive rate.

vRHP he's got great k/bb splits but a low babip thanks to a high flyball rate - but with a great hard hit percentage too.
bpoz - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#389730) #
I see 2 contenders whose position players know how to play the game very well. TB and Oakland. Maybe Cleveland too is V good.

CWS & Jays are loaded with V good inexperienced young players. NYY, Twins and Houston have experienced v good talent. Injuries and hot players can defeat them IMO.

Baltimore seemed horrible at playing the game well. They gave maybe 2 games in this 4 game series to the Jays. I do think they have some good young players that can compete in the ALE. R Mountcastle and Santander. Their catching duo are as good and any other ALE catchers and are not old. A Rutschman should also be good soon.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#389731) #
The bottom line is that Tellez does not have large platoon differences this season or over his career.  He's had issues with his K rate prior to this year, and he has gotten it under control this year so far- both against lefties and against righties. 

He looks much, much better than Vogelbach up there. 
bpoz - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#389732) #
Vlad is playing everyday because the playing time is for his development. Tellez and Vogelbach probably share 1B/DH until one of them consistently outplays the other. Just IMO, Tellez is ahead but Voglebach has not yet been given a fair chance. Doubleheaders and pinch hitting will give both some ABs. One of them can easily get injured which gives insurance to the LH power bat.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#389733) #
Taijuan Walker's expected ERAs per Statcast from 2015-2020: 4.19, 4.36, 4.21, 7.18, 5.22, 3.91.  In 2018, he threw 13 innings prior to TJ surgery.  In 2019, he threw 1 inning.  His career ERA, FIP and xFIP are 3.91, 4.23 and 4.16. 

Projection algorithms are going to give significant weight to his 13 innings in 2018 prior to TJ.  Personally, I wouldn't.  A number between 4 and 4.25 makes sense, given what we know about TJ and what we can see in 2020. 
uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#389734) #
You don't have to sell me on Rowdy. He's my boy.

But I don't think the projections are placing any undue weight on those 13ip for Walker in 2018. There's much more weight on the 4.62fip/4.91xfip/4.65siera he's put up this year even with a lowly .225babip.

Also note that his pitch mix is now much different than it was pre-injuries. He's now a sinker/slider guy, not a fastball guy.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#389735) #
Fair enough, UO.  Walker hasn't lost velocity on his FB though and the Statcast data is, if anything, better.  His EV is way down.  Statcast has him with a 27.7% hard-hit rate while Fangraphs has him at 36.2%.

The sample sizes for Walker over the last 3 years are so small that one game makes a huge difference.  I suspect that Statcast includes his last start batted ball data but Fangraphs does not.  In any event, the projections in a case like this are worth a lot less than for a pitcher who has thrown 300-600 innings over the last 3 years.
85bluejay - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#389736) #
I am confident that Walker will outperform your projections Mike Green. I'm hoping the Jays can extend him maybe a 2 year contract with an option.
bpoz - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#389737) #
I count 27 pitchers on the 40 man roster which includes Y Diaz and Thornton on the 60 day IL. Also Font has to improve or lose playing time.

The IF has Panik and Shaw who are veterans that may be useful as depth. Bo and Espinal can play regularly when Bo is back. One of Panik or Shaw can be DFA'd. If Drury is not claimed he can can stick around and be brought back as insurance if . Maybe Shaw and Panik if DFA'd also dont get claimed.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#389738) #
I'm a Rowdy fan, too and I think acquiring Vogelbach was kind of redundant. Tellez has only 522 major league at bats and at age 25 is only approaching his prime. He needs to get regular playing time, not sitting on the bench watching another big, left-handed hitter try to regain his form.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#389739) #
Bpoz, I wouldn't be surprised if Espinal is sent back to development camp and Panik is retained for the rest of the season. I don't think Panik is much of a hitter but the Jays might value his veteran presence on a young team.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#389740) #
As someone who complained about our terrible bench heading into the year, I have no problem adding vogelbach to it.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#389741) #
I see Vogelbach as a pinch hitter and emergency for 1B/DH if Tellez was needed in a trade for a key part - Mike Clevinger might have been the trade they were shooting for and had Tellez as a part of it maybe (Reyes to LF, Tellez as DH). Not sure who else would've been worth trading a guy hitting 117 OPS+ who is under team control for many years and still pre-arb. Vogelbach is under team control for a long time still (through 2024) so making him a bench piece dedicated to hitting for the weakest guys isn't a bad move in these days of a 28 man roster (26 next year), and with pitching slots limited in 2021 (13 iirc).

The biggest issue is how do the Jays shuffle these guys. Do they dedicate Vogelbach to being a PH/backup for Vlad & Tellez or do they try to get him extra playing time? He really isn't an ideal fit here by any stretch. Still he only cost cash so who cares? Can release him if there isn't playing time for him. Or try to demote him (wouldn't be bad to have him in the minors in case Tellez or Vlad gets hurt).

Ross Stripling is the only other guy gained who is under team control for 2021. So roster slots are just being used for this season. Jonathan Villar is the big question - if he is comfortable at 2B/3B do you resign him for 2021 and beyond? He'd make the IF very strong with Biggio/Bichette up the middle and Jordan Groshans/Austin Martin possibilities at 3B while Vlad and Tellez share 1B/DH. Could be a very expensive backup, but worthwhile if willing to sign.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#389742) #
Robert Murray
@ByRobertMurray
The Blue Jays were close on a deal to acquire Joe Musgrove from the Pirates, but the deal fell apart at the eleventh hour, according to sources with direct knowledge. Toronto wound up acquiring Robbie Ray, Ross Stripling instead.


Musgrove this year: 6.75era, -1.1war32
Musgrove projections: 4.54era, 2.4war32

Buy Low is pretty much religious dogma for them, eh?
tstaddon - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#389743) #
Guys like Conine project to be are not hard to find at the Major League level. Domingo Santana, for example, was just DFA by Cleveland. He doesn't have the arm Conine is reported to have, but has a similar offensive profile. The Jays or any other team could have had him this offseason, or could acquire him now for very little. So it's a good bet. Hard to see Conine turning into Joey Gallo - that'd be the 95-99% outcome.
Cracka - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#389744) #
Tellez was sitting at 227/288/455 when they acquired Vogelbach. I think they were, and maybe still are, considering optioning Tellez. If he's down for less than 20 days, he doesn't burn his final option, which may be valuable for 2021. But Tellez has picked it up at the plate and is likely better defensively (though still below average) than Vogelbach, who hasn't played in the field this season.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#389745) #
Never too soon to debate both this years playoff bench and 2021's...

Infield backups:
  • Santiago Espinal (years of control and cheap) - has no bat, but good speed and strong defense, from all reports a great attitude too
  • Joe Panik (free agent post 2020) - no bat for past 3 years, turns 30, meh.
  • Jonathan Villar (free agent post 2020) - around a 100 OPS+ bat (96 lifetime), will probably want to play everyday in 2021 thus unlikely to resign unless handed 3B.
  • Travis Shaw (1 year of control, free agent post 2021) - not hitting enough for a guy limited to 1B/3B, I expect to be released post 2020 if a good replacement found or if felt one of the kids is ready or if the Jays choose to put Vlad back at 3B.
I suspect this offseason if Villar isn't willing to be an everyday (more or less) 3B, or Shaw doesn't pick it up a LOT more, the Jays will go out and sign another guy for 3B while using Espinal as the utility infielder (thus making Vogelbach a must as PH for Espinal). Hopefully it doesn't all result in Vlad at 3B again.

Outfield Backups:
  • Derek Fisher - expect more playing time for him this year, although the current trio makes it hard
  • Jonathan Davis - will stay in the minors all year but should be back in 2021 as the 4th man since he covers CF and has speed. Might be put on the roster for post-season when a pinch runner could make all the difference.
  • Billy McKinney - lands under the 'eating a 40 man spot for some reason' category.
I expect little change here. As much as the Jays want a defensive upgrade they are kind of stuck with their current OF as long as they keep hitting. Unless of course they use one of them as trade bait (Gurriel is most often listed this way, but I see Hernandez as a strong trade bait piece for a top quality starter with years of control and a great bat this year).
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#389746) #
"Buy Low is pretty much religious dogma for them"

The FO seems to have a strong preference for (1) retaining its better prospects and instead trading lower-end prospects for reclamation projects or value plays, versus (2) cashing its best prospects for highly-sought-after players.

Although the team did reportedly consider offering a top prospect (Bichette?) to the Marlins for Yelich.
scottt - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#389747) #
They could go with a 5 men bench until Bichette is back.
Then they need to clear at least one spot.
They could send Espinal down, but they didn't do that went he was hurt.
Keeping Panik means you also need to find a 40 roster spot or move someone to the 45IL.

Font has 10.6 K per 9 innings but that's misleading.
He has an incredible 15.5 hits per 9 innings.
So Waguespack has a better K rate.

hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#389748) #
Panik - He's looked better at the plate lately. He's been driving the ball more, although for him that's only doubles, he has almost no power. One thing with him is the K's. He's over 22% this year. His previous 5 years have all been sub-10%. His problems seem that when he's chased outside the zone, he hasn't made contact as in the past. His K's have improved, though. 10 K's his 1st 10 games, 5 K's his last 10.

Espinal/Panik will lose playing time with Villar here. Espinal would be best served going to Rochester playing regular sim games, Panik can sit on the bench.

uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#389749) #
Nice breakdown, John.

A couple things I'd mention:

1. I would not be surprised at all if the jays see Villar as potential OF depth as well (possibly even an upgrade on Gurriel - even potentially a solution in CF with his speed). And I donít think any of Davis/Fisher/McKinney bring anything.

2. I'm a bit more bullish on Shaw - mostly because he seems to be a true Corner IF defensively, which imo takes slightly differently skills than the middle IF. But also because I think his bat will likely trend back up to average .


And it's funny, Cracka....

Rowdy (25): 573pa, 102wrc+ (104vR/96vL), 1.0war650
Vogie (27): 773pa, 98wrc+ (111vR/54vL), 0.4war650


Rowdy's been better younger and much less of a platoon guy than vogelbach. Vogelbach has the edge in walks, but rowdy has dropped his K rate down to a level vogelbach has never seen before. I guess perhaps vogelbach gets better exit velo than rowdy but rowdy has put up better ISO power numbers than vogie at pretty much every level.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#389750) #
Hmm. We gave up Kendall Williams for Stripling. I liked him more than that I think.
bpoz - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#389751) #
I really liked K Williams.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#389752) #
Hrm... knew it would take something decent to get Stripling. Sigh. Kendall Williams was a 2nd round pick in 2019, just 18 last year but kids with a good/great arm in rookie ball at 18 often blow out while Stripling before this year had a 3.60 FIP and 115 ERA+ (ugly year) and has 2 more years of control during the Jays current window of opportunity (which is now open). I see the logic here. Hate losing good prospects, but this was getting a potentially solid starter for 2 1/2 years of a contention window in exchange for at most 2 prospects. Williams was #13 on the Jays prospect list by MLB.com. If you aren't willing to trade guys outside of the teams top 10 then trades will never be of significance. Hopefully it doesn't end up like the infamous Dickey for oah Syndergaard trade (where it looked like the Jays would regret losing Travis d'Arnaud most - now hitting well for Atlanta but 3.5 WAR lifetime vs Thor's 15.7 and just 1 year before a free agent and on the DL all year with Tommy John. Dickey got 7.1 WAR here and is long retired now).
Glevin - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#389753) #
Williams is a good prospect. Stripling under contract for another year so I am OK with that as long as other PTBNL is nothing.
85bluejay - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#389754) #
I think Stripling is under control for 2 more years so I'm was expecting someone like Williams to go.
85bluejay - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#389755) #
I was expecting someone like Williams to go and I don't think the other PTBL is nothing.
85bluejay - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#389756) #
It's funny, the jays were reportedly willing to include Bo but not Vlad - I'm sure the Marlins are probably thinking we should have taken BO and the better secondary prospects that the Jays would have included to offset not including Vlad - reminds me of when Riccardi apparently turned down a nice package from the Phillies because he wanted Kyle Drabek and/or Dominic Brown instead of Carlos Carrasco
hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#389757) #
How about the ex-Marlins FO guy admitting they were offered their choice of the "Big 3". They took Nicolino because he was a lefty.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#389758) #
Ray has a profile (like most if not more extreme) of being much better first two times through the lineup. This means heíll likely fit in the 5 inning SP or opener role for the team.

I wouldnít be surprised when Pearson returns if he does so as a long reliever going 2ip or so to minimize further injuries and get him in there more regularly.
pubster - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#389759) #
Stripling hits free agency in 2023. So the Jays have him for 2 more seasons after this year.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#389760) #
Stripling (30)

Career as SP: 59gs, 4.9ip/gs, 3.93era, 4.13fip, 3.66xfip
Career as RP: 84gms, 130.0ip, 3.12era, 3.36fip, 3.59xfip
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#389761) #
Not surprised Williams was the main PTBNL. Stripling has two more years of control after this one, and was good prior to 2020. It wasn't going to be cheap even with his poor 7 starts in 2020. The 2nd PTBNL likely isn't nothing either. This FO seems to put a lot of weight into spin rate, and Stripling's velocity is right in line with his career this season to go along with above average FB/CB spin. There's a decent chance he resembles the pitcher he was prior to 2020, assuming he stays healthy, but pitchers can be unpredictable.

In the end, the Jays kept their top 10 prospects, and if they feel the window of serious contention is 2021-25, then adding players like Stripling fits that time frame. I'd be fine with dipping into the top 10 prospect pool to add a significant piece, but that piece has to be at least controllable for more than a season for it to be worth it.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#389762) #
There seems to be a bit of confusion on which side of the trade the second PTNL is. The official websites seem to suggest its coming Torontoís way but thatís likely a mistake. Regardless the second name will likely be someone further down the org.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#389763) #
Kendall Williams in the Dodger develop system will be interesting to follow, he has big time upside. In the past the Jays have traded Kevin Komer, Noah Syndergard and Joe Misgrove as big high schoolers in A ball
or below, which represent the three outcomes for this deal.

Stripling to me was viewed as expendable by a contending team, so Iím not convinced I his trade will end up very well.
Glevin - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#389764) #
"Stripling to me was viewed as expendable by a contending team, so Iím not convinced I his trade will end up very well."

Umm...have you seen the Dodgers' depth? Kershaw, May, Buehler, Gonsolin, Urias and an excellent bullpen. Besides, this argument makes no sense. Clevinger, deemed expendable by a contending team is obviously going to suck with SD?
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#389765) #
It's a weird year.  Playoff bound teams selling current assets for prospects at the deadline is not what you usually see.  I guess there's a payroll reduction bit happening. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#389766) #
I don't love the Stripling trade. In the last couple of years, the Jays have been able to acquire controllable/useful starting pitchers (Ryu, Roark, Anderson, Shoemaker, arguably Hatch) without giving up any prospects of note. Plus the recent short-term acquisitions of Walker and Ray (presumably acquired for lesser prospects than Williams).

The trade could work out well for the Jays if Stripling rebounds, but the loss of Williams could sting if he develops well and Stripling proves to be just another back-end starter.

Here's an article from last month that includes discussion of Williams:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/blue-jays-farm-director-gil-kim-on-pitching-prospects-and-disparate-development-during-a-pandemic/
John Northey - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#389767) #
This winter will be quite interesting both from a free agent pov and from a trade one. Will teams be dumping contracts big time? The Jays seem to be in better fiscal shape than most - very few long term deals, lots of young cheap players, an ownership that owns the TV station, the stadium, the cable network, etc. Lots of ways to draw in revenue immediately in 2021. Plus the Jays play in a sane nation vs the insanity down south where COVID might be big still well after a vaccine comes out as 40% of the US will distrust it depending on who is in power. Sad mess.

Hopefully the Jays can take advantage of this and see sky high ratings in the fall with the Jays going to the playoffs and hopefully getting to round 2 at least. With only the Canucks left in the NHL and likely gone after tonight, and the Raptors likely to be done soon (Boston seems to have their number) that leaves the Jays with a clear path to viewership for all of September/October. If they get millions of viewers Rogers will have the incentive to let the team go nuts on payroll if appropriate.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#389768) #
Yeah, the Dodger system might well make the deal look bad eventually, even if Stripling reverts to his previous cromulent levels.

That's normal thinking. But different teams have/have had different abilities with player development. Let's say 2 guys like Williams were traded for players who gave us 2.5 WAR for a couple of years. One went to the Red Sox. A decent relief pitcher would probably have been his best outcome. The same type of guy went to Cleveland and became a 4 WAR SP. One trade a win, the other a loss even though the Jays got exactly the same return from both trades.

Glevin - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#389769) #
Alberto Rodriguez the PTBNL for Walker. Fangraphs had him as #17 prospects for Jays. Not on Pipeline's top-30. They definitely gave up some talent for what they got but only way to improve team is to give up something.
Paul D - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#389770) #
The Dodgers have been an ERA+ of 160 this year.

That is not a typo. They have talent to spare (and I've wanted the Jays to go after Stripling for years, I'm quite happy with this deal)
hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#389771) #
Vogelbach has also been DFA'd along with Drury and Gaviglio.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#389772) #
The Dodgers pitching depth is what a contending team looks like. If the Jays want that depth you donít trade for Stripling while giving up real assets.

Iím more ok trading Alberto Rodriguez than the earlier report of Will Robertson.
Cynicalguy - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#389773) #
The 40 man roster is getting pretty tight. Not too many useless relievers left that you normally see on the 40 man.
mathesond - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#389774) #
If the Jays want that depth you donít trade for Stripling while giving up real assets.

Because Stripling isn't a real asset, of course.
Paul D - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#389775) #
Question for everyone - are you now hoping that the prospects traded away fail?

I understand that instinct, but I try to avoid it. I hope Stripling is a solid number 3 starter next year, and if the prospect turns into something, so be it.
Glevin - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#389776) #
"The Dodgers pitching depth is what a contending team looks like. If the Jays want that depth you donít trade for Stripling while giving up real assets."

The Dodgers are easily the best team in baseball and have the second best pitching in baseball. The Jays right now have the 6th best pitching in baseball. Stripling is an upgrade for the Jays while the Dodgers could afford to give him up because they have so much depth. And yes, someone like Stripling is going to cost real assets. His value in 2018 and 2019 about $30M in excess value over his contract. If you think he can get back to that range ($10-$15M a year) and have him for 2+ years, you'd be willing to trade around another $30-35M back in value which is more than Williams is worth. There is risk and there is always a chance that Williams puts it together but you aren't getting a cheap and pretty good pitcher with control for nothing.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#389777) #
Stripling provided that excess value during his pre-arb years. He is now projected to provide 4.2 million of excess value over his arb years.
mathesond - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#389778) #
Excess value is a lovely metric, but will he help win games?
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#389779) #
If he gets back to his old form, sure.
85bluejay - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#389780) #
Apparently Robbie Ray will pitch in the pen - also I'm really impressed by Merryweather and even though it's been mentioned that he hasn't pitched much the last few years, I still hope the Jays give him a run as a starter.

Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#389781) #
Jonathan Villar is batting third in his Blue Jays debut.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#389782) #
What's really killed Stripling and Ray this "year" are HR's. They are #1-#2 in HR/FB of the 78 pitchers with 30 IP. An interesting name at #4 on that list - Gerrit Cole.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#389783) #
Putting Villar at 3 is...perplexing.

And a number of people are describing the pitching adds as clear upgrades and im not sure they're necessarily that...though I'll grant that they do increasing the ODDS of better pitching.
Lylemcr - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#389784) #
First. Drury is in DFA'd. I am so happy.

Second. The prospects were too much IMO. If Walker resigns or Ray/Stripling work as a reclaimation project, this is a huge win. A starting 3 of Ryu, Pearson, and Walker\Ray would be an exciting base to start from.

Plus, the Jays could be in the playoffs! You never know what happens when you get there.
grjas - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#389785) #
Putting Villar at 3 is...perplexing.

Montoyo often seems to do bizarre things in his lineups. I presume he has some rationale, just not sure what it is.
grjas - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#389786) #
And of course as I post this, it kinda works out.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#389787) #
It's been an excellent deadline period.  Obviously it didn't have the excitement of 2015, but it was quietly efficient and productive.  Two thumbs up.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#389788) #
Julian Merryweather 7.1 IP, 14.73 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 0 ERA, 2.43 xFIP and just 2 hits allowed.

He is quickly becoming must see TV.
James W - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#389789) #
I presume he has some rationale, just not sure what it is.

I think his rationale is just to not group up lefties or righties.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#389790) #
Maybe Merryweather is the real Nate Pearson...
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#389791) #
Someone in the Jays organization (not sure who) has a good eye for identifying pitchers with breakout potential. In the last couple of years weíve seen the Jays acquire a number of pitchers, some not very highly regarded, who have turned into real assets for the team.
grjas - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#389792) #
Yamaguchi as well as turning out to be a pleasant surprise.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#389793) #
After his first few outings I was harsh on Yamaguchi, but he looks sharper and the statcast data loves his split finger fastball.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#389794) #
Jays bullpen ERA was 3.12 coming into tonight's game. Despite Wilmer Font (it's 2.65 without him.)
Glevin - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#389795) #
Another stupid loss. Jays are tied for first in baseball with 17 outs on the bases not including CS. That is utterly insane for a team that is not particularly fast. It's been an absolute killer.
rtcaino - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#389796) #
Someone in the Jays organization (not sure who) has a good eye for identifying pitchers with breakout potential.

Hopefully they can share some secrets with the people who identify hitters.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 01 2020 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#389797) #
Fun times - debating if too much value given up to get assets to win now. So much more fun that the other way around 'dang, should've traded player xyz earlier to get more prospects'. Team is probably set now until it is all over.
  • CA: Jansen/McGuire (if only the bats of these two could improve...sigh)
  • 1B: Vlad - becoming a solid guy at 1B but geez does he drive you nuts at times
  • 2B: Biggio - seems people have figured out to just throw strikes to him and hopefully he'll start hitting the other way soon
  • 3B: Shaw/Villar/Bichette - we'll see what happens when Bo returns - he might need to go to 3B to reduce strain on his knee
  • SS: Bichette/Villar - see 3B
  • LF: Gurriel - like Vlad, so dang good, but so darn frustrating at times
  • CF: Grichuk - when he is good, he is very very good.
  • RF: Hernandez - bat = great, field = nightmare at times, but nice arm
  • DH: Tellez - with Vogelbach gone after 5 PA (0-4 with a walk) he is locked in with his 117 OPS+ before today
  • UT: Panik (ugh), Espinal (speed & D), Fisher (hits for other 2, gives OF'ers a day off)
And that is it for the hitters. I'd say that is set in near stone with Bichette the big variable, then Shaw/Villar splitting playing time once Bo is back.

Pitching...
  • Rotation: Ryu, Anderson, Walker, Stripling, Roark (I'd rather see Merryweather & pen in the 5 hole), Pearson might be put back in when healthy, but #5 will be Shoemaker if he returns.
  • Bullpen: Bass/Dolis/Cole/Hatch/Yamaguchi/Borucki/Kay/Ray - plus Giles & Romano when they come back.
Dang - that staff is getting very crowded. 10 relievers before adding in Pearson and Merryweather and Roark (have to think he loses his slot when/if Shoemaker returns). Font has to be toast soon. SRF will go down too.
Jonny German - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 05:03 AM EDT (#389798) #
I think his rationale is just to not group up lefties or righties.

That's his stated rationale - and yet he still ended up with Shaw-Fisher-McGuire-Biggio at 7-8-9-1 in the lineup yesterday.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#389799) #
376 batters have 40 PA's. Reese McGuire's -49 wRC+ is dead last of those 376.

Why does Villar remind me of 2015 Jose Reyes?
Jonny German - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#389800) #
It's because they're both speedy switch-hitting Dominican shortstops who aren't great at defence. But more importantly, Villar is better than Panik to the same degree that Tulo was better than Reyes.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#389801) #
And McGuire's terrible start hasn't been the product of any particular bad luck.  His exit velocity and launch angle are both terrible, leading to an xBA of .129 and an xSLG of .180.  He hasn't walked yet either.  I don't know if the unfortunate events in the spring are affecting his performance, but you can't tolerate that level of suckitude for long. 
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#389802) #
If Hernandez was healthy, then there was no excuse to give him a day off last night. There are less than 30 games left in the season and every win matters. I can almost tolerate the weird lineups (almost!) as long as the best players are on the field. I don't know why Montoyo is so bad putting a lineup together when it should be one of the easier jobs for a manager.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#389803) #
Villar -0.2 bWAR, 0.1 fWAR
Panik -0.3 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR

Panik hasn't committed an error all season. Villar's error was his 4th in his past 9 games.

I don't know the minds of players, but a guy booting or throwing away an easy play on multiple occasions seems more deflating than a steady presence who doesn't have the range or arm. But maybe that's just me.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#389804) #
One day off for Hernandez in a 60 game compressed season is probably a good idea.  That is enough though.  The club has days off September 10 and 14.

The team as a whole does have a tendency to press when the hits aren't coming and that's when the baserunning errors multiply. I think that they need to let Jansen run with the catching job for a while.  The usual guidelines for catcher usage have less effect in a 60 game season- if they play 50 games out of the 60, that is fine. 
uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#389805) #
they did know when they got him that Villar is an athletic but very sloppy fielder. Can't be surprised that that arguably cost us the game in his first game. Can't say it's too great to see their SP deadline addition being used as a 50-pitch tandem SP, either.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#389806) #
Interesting to look at LA - Team ERA+ of 161 (wow), OPS+ of 117. Sterling was a spare part and probably 7th in their starting rotation depth at this point. No wonder Ryu was allowed to leave as a FA and now Sterling for prospects when they are contending. Their only real hole is 2B (64 OPS+ from Enrique Hernandez who lifetime is a 97 and plays everywhere). Their regular LF is a bit weak in Joc Pederson with a 94 OPS+ but was over 120 the past 2 years, and 3 of the past 4 so safe to say this is a blip, not a trend for him.

Boy, that team is 5 games up in the NL West, and 2 games up on everyone in MLB (Tampa is 2nd - the AL East is one heck of a tough division).
bpoz - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#389807) #
The Tigers are beating some good teams.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#389808) #
Don't look now but Detroit is suddenly a half game behind the Jays for the last playoff spot thanks to a unexpected winning streak.

I, too, would have liked to have seen Teoscar in the lineup last night but sometimes you got to give the manager the benefit of the doubt. Hernandez seemed to be dealing with a stiff back in a recent game where they had him DHing. He was riding a stationary bike and doing other things to loosen up throughout the game so maybe he needed a night off yesterday.

The Jay's are in a stretch of a lot of consecutive games and after today face 5 games in 4 days against the Red Sox. A win today against Miami and beating Boston 4 out of 5 would be ideal. Man, I hope Bo gets back soon.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#389809) #
John, the guys name is Stripling. He's definitely not Sterling, especially this year.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#389810) #
With Kendall Williams going the other way, I wondered if the headline for the deal would be "Stripping for Stripling".  Assets not clothes, I rush to add. 
scottt - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#389811) #
Two years ago Atkins was describing 2019 as less competitive, 2020 as more competitive, and 2021 as competitive.
Now he's talking about being in every games, winning games and finally expecting to win every games.

Being in every games is a good description of this year's team.

John Northey - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#389812) #
Oops, good old typo - ah well. Miami has a guy Sterling Sharp but I can't use that as an excuse.

I remember an old Bill James rule was that if you couldn't picture a trade happening a year earlier then it was a good one to do. Stripling has been a swingman for LA but a dang good one - pre 2020 ERA+ of 115, 2.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9. I expect the Jays to lock him into the rotation to justify giving up Williams, and due to the need. I suspect (hope) they talked with Ryu about him to see about makeup and the like from someone who shared a clubhouse with him. Would you give up a 2nd round pick for him? Sure. Round 2 tends to provide lots of talent, but checking a few - 2010 has just 1 guy over 10 WAR, 5 for 2009, 2 for 2008, 4 for 2007, 4 for 2006 - out of 30 each year. So odds of this being a blowout is low, decent chance of another Dickey/Thor situation but not a high odds of it. Each year more 2nd round picks never make the majors than make it.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#389813) #
I listened to Atkins on Tim and Sid. He gave a lot of good info. It is good to hear him say relevant stuff rather than talk and say nothing. I have been saying that he should talk and say nothing. Something has changed.

Regarding K Williams he said that here were a few high ranked prospects ahead of Williams.

We will find out over the next 7 years how Williams turned out.

Tim and Sid do a V good job IMO.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#389814) #
"Round 2 tends to provide lots of talent, but"

Bichette was a second-round pick.
Thomas - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#389815) #
Fangraphs has a ranking of the prospects traded at the deadline (excluding PTBNLs, so neither Williams nor Rodriguez are included).

For the second deadline in a row, Taylor Trammel is the highest-ranked prospect traded.

Conine and Bergen ranked 20th and 22nd, respectively.

The two prospects Colorado traded for Mychal Givens were ranked 2nd and 10th. I knew Baltimore did well in that deal, but I don't think I appreciated how well.
rpriske - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#389816) #
As usual, people overvalue marginal prospects. Is Williams too much to give up for Stripling?
Absolutely not.
(Not to say that makes it a good trade. There is still another player to be named.)
uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#389817) #
Which group of pitchers is better?

1.Deadline: Walker, Stripling, Ray
2.Offseason: Shoemaker, Anderson, Roark
85bluejay - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#389818) #
Walker,Stripling,Ray - lower floor,higher ceiling.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#389819) #
What's a 2nd round pick likely to produce?  There are about 30 of them every year.  To get a sense of what they are likely to do in their pre-free agency years, you can't look later than the 2010 draft year.  During the period 2007-10 period (about 120 picks), there were 10 players who got more than 15 WAR (Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman, Zack Cozart, Charlie Blackmon, Billy Hamilton, Nolan Arenado, Jason Kipnis, D.J. LeMahieu, Patrick Corbin and Andrelton Simmons) and 16 others who got 3-14 WAR (players like Eric Sogard, Drew Smyly and Brad Hand).  There were 4 really big hits (Stanton, Freeman, Arenado and Simmons), and that's where about 1/2 the value in the picks lay.

Is Kendall Williams worth more than the average 2nd round pick at this point?  Maybe a little.  He had a very fine debut in the GCL and there's no indication that he is not healthy.

I ran a BBRef Stathead Play Index to identify Stripling comps.  I used these search criteria for the period age 26-30: IP between 360 and 500, more than 50 starts and relief appearances and ERA+ between 100 and 120 (Stripling has 430 IP and an ERA+ of 110).  I got a very interesting collection: Brad Peacock, Tom Gorzelanny, Mike Minor, Mike Montgomery, Joe Price, Dick Kelley, Scott Garrelts, Stu Miller, Elmer Dessens, Whitey Moore and Bob Chipman.  Garrelts was done by age 29 and didn't pitch in his age 30 season.  Moore's last year was his age 30 season in 1942.  Montgomery is in the middle of his age 30 season like Stripling.  The others were mostly pretty good and usually in a relief role, aside from Minor and Dessens who both started at age 31. 

There's probably somewhat more value in the 2nd round pick than Stripling, but the difference is probably not large.  Stripling has more value to the Blue Jays than to the Dodgers, and that's the heart of the deal, I think.

85bluejay - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#389820) #
The high attrition rate of high school pitching prospects is also a factor to be considered.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#389821) #
It may be that high school pitchers in the 2nd round are worse bets than collegiate outfielders for instance.  I know the first round has been pretty thoroughly studied, but I don't know about the second. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#389822) #
Villar batting 3rd again tonight, and this time plays second base.  Grichuk DHs and Vladdy gets the night off. 
Glevin - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#389823) #
I can see the Jays strategy with pitchers is a little like Tampa's where you have a lot of good pitchers but you don't necessarily pitch them like traditional starters. Glasnow is averaging under 5 innings a start, Fairbanks leads the team in wins and hasn't started a game, 11 pitchers have started games already, they have lots of relievers who pitch multiple innings, etc... It's a legitimate strategy in the modern game with less than elite starters. I'm fine, for example going with Merryweather and Ray piggybacking. Or Stripling and Shoemaker or whatever.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#389824) #
I don't get the lineup here - isn't Villar here so we don't need to see Panik and Espinal start unless Shaw or Villar need a day off? Ah well, the versatility is nice. Hopefully Biggio does well in CF. Biggio being a 2B/RF/CF (and I assume 1B/DH and figure he could do 3B) mixed with Villar SS/2B/3B/OF means the Jays have lots of options to give guys days off. Funny - they list SB on the lineup at MLB.com and the Jays have 5 guys with at least 1 SB this year in the lineup while Miami has just 3 (8 by leadoff hitter, 2 and 1 by the other guys). Somehow didn't notice that Hernandez is up to 5 SB already (tied for 6th in the AL).

As to value for 2nd round picks - my point wasn't there isn't any, it was that guys there are at best a 50-50 shot at being as good as Stripling (3.9 WAR lifetime with 2+ years of control pre-free agency). For every Bo Bichette (and the Jays best 2nd rounder David Wells) there are many Chris Weinke's (1990 draft very hyped, got to AAA but no further). In fact, in Jays history (50 2nd round picks) only 4 had 4+ WAR (Wells, Derek Bell, Daniel Norris, Tim Crabtree) Bichette will be the 5th (3.4 so far), and I wouldn't be shocked if Sean Reid-Foley gets there someday. Griffin Conine also is a 2nd rounder as was J.B. Woodman (traded for Aledmys DŪaz who is very good at wearing out his welcome everywhere he plays). 2nd round picks have value - and the Jays just cashed in their chips on one pick to help 2020 (and 21/22) go to the playoffs. We hope.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#389825) #
The tandem starter concept has been debated a lot in the past but with a 10 man bullpen it can work easily.
  1. Ryu: Merryweather would be good to bring in next I think with that 98 MPH heat and different pitch types, plus Ryu goes deep enough that 2 more IP should be plenty.
  2. Anderson: mix with Kay (LH after the RH)
  3. Stripling: Yamaguchi might be good here, very different pitchers.
  4. Walker: Borucki as a LH after the RH
  5. Roark: Ray here - Roark counts on hitting his spots, Ray just needs to hit the strike zone
That could work, with 5 more guys used as needed (Bass/Dolis/Cole/Hatch/SRF) send Font home. SRF goes once Romano or Giles return. No idea who goes when the other of those 2 returns. Deep pen this year.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#389826) #
Villar trying to fit in, I see.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#389827) #
Can't anybody here play this game?
rpriske - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#389828) #
This is ridiculous. Between the baserunning errors and fielding errors that is already a 'four out swing'.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#389829) #
Is Villar still with the Marlins?
Magpie - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#389830) #
I have to get five outs this inning?

Fine. I'll get five outs.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#389831) #
Batting him third might have been a particularly bad idea in light of the focus issues.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#389832) #
Batting him third might have been a particularly bad idea in light of the focus issues.

How about batting him at all. I followed the deadline fairly closely and the only real makeup negativity I heard concerned Villar. Atkins blabbed about run prevention and then brought in a guy with major focus issues on a team that struggles with focus issues.
rpriske - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#389833) #
Again?!?! WTH?!
Magpie - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#389834) #
Seriously?
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#389835) #
The collective lack of focus has to stop, and I donít know if Montoyo is the man for the job.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#389836) #
Some of us oldtimers recall the Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell deadline swap as perhaps the most disastrous deadline deal of all-time, with the Jaysí swap of Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza not far behind. Never a good sign when a deadline acquisition calls those deals to mind.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#389837) #
So... was Brandon Drury really that bad?
hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#389838) #
yes.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#389839) #
Fair enough.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#389840) #
Sixto half a dozen the Jays win this one.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#389841) #
It's nice caring about the outcome of Jays games again, but man, I've never seen such an extended stretch of games where every game is so close.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#389842) #
Tom Seaver has died at age 75.
scottt - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#389843) #
Not really. He got 2 hits. It's too bad nobody got on base in front of him.
scottt - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#389844) #
They improved the pitching as the hitters were starting to cool off.

Gurriel should have just continued to second there.

It's lame to get caught at 3rd after the catcher stepped in front of the plate and gave signals.
You have to know where the 3rdbaseman is.
Nobody calling the ball in the outfield in a quiet stadium is mostly Teoscar's error.

Great interview by Rowdy. What does it mean to have Ryu starting? It means we only need 2 runs.

greenfrog - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#389845) #
Scoreboard watch: the Brewers are 3 outs away from beating the Tigers.

Checking the boxscore, I noticed that Eric Sogard is hitting .182/.277/.239 this year. Hard to believe that only a year ago he hit .290/.353/.477. I guess not keeping him wasnít such a big mistake after all.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2020 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#389846) #
Smoaky is below the Mendoza line as well for the Brewers.

And speaking of ex-Jays on the Brewers, don't remember it being mentioned, but Angel Perdomo made his MLB debut with them earlier this year and put up some eye-popping numbers.

3 games, 2.2 IP, 16.88 K/9, 23.63 BB/9, 20.25 ERA

He also hit a batter and had a balk.

Yeah, he got sent back down.
John Northey - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#389847) #
Tigers lose, Yankees lose, Jays now 1 game back of the Yankees for 2nd in the AL East, 1 1/2 games back of Minnesota for the first wild card, 1 1/2 ahead of Detroit for the final playoff slot. Detroit and all teams lower have a negative run for/against while the Jays are +14.

Advantage of first wild card is avoiding Tampa in the first round most likely. Of course, the best is to just keep winning and move ahead of the Yankees but that will be tough.
scottt - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#389849) #
So, 8 outs, 5 of those Ks, 3 hits, and 7 walks, one intentional.

I'm guessing the kind of outings where you get 2 outs and load the bases then the next guy comes and let everybody scores.

scottt - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#389852) #
The second wild card is likely out of reach. However the pecking order is the 3 first place teams, then the 3 second place teams, then the 2 wild cards. Pushing the Yankees to face the Rays in the first round would be HUGE.
For now, it's just about not losing to Boston (minus Moreland) and trying to stay close to the Yankees before the 2 team meet with the Jays throwing Ryu/Walker/Roark out there while the Yankees are going to use Garcia/Cole/Tanaka against Baltimore. So if all go well we'll see Happ, Montgomery and Garcia.

grjas - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#389853) #
Ryu is looking like our best pitcher since Price, and this time we get to keep him. His quote today in SN says it all about his mindset, even when players mess up. Hope Pearson is taking notes.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#389855) #
Looking at the pitching from a high level this staff gets high ranks on a lot of key statcast metrics.

xWOBA - 4th
xWOBA Contact - 2nd
xBA - 3rd
xBA Contact - 1st
Weak % - 3rd
Hard % - 8th
Offspeed Pitches Thrown - 5th

Conventional stats:

ERA - 5th
xFIP - 13th
K% - 10th
BB% - 22nd

It looks like to me the Jays are sticking to their strategy of using an increased percentage of offspeed pitches to limit hard contact, and its working so far.
bpoz - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#389857) #
The last 20 games of the season for both NYY and the Jays they play 10 against each other. If you subtract the last 3 games it is 17. Final 3 games NYY/Miami and Jays/Orioles.
Cracka - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#389858) #
I was very intrigued when Alejandro Kirk was added to the taxi squad in addition to Caleb Joseph. As crazy as it sounds, I think we're going to see Kirk on the roster as early as next week. Atkins called him a "major-league hitter" in spring training. He's now practicing with the team, catching the MLB pitchers. Shulman said that "Atkins didn't rule out using him this season".

Reese McGuire has been awful at the plate and still has an option left. I believe that he would keep that option for 2021 if he spends 19 days or less on assignment during the season, which would be the case if he was demoted after September 7th.

It's a bold move to bring up a catcher directly from A-ball and put him 40 man roster over a year ahead of schedule. But he might be our best hitting catcher right now and I could see him on the roster at some point next season anyway. Our catchers are hitting "a buck thirty" with .471 OPS. It's like giving away 4 PAs per game (unless its a bunt situation - both are great bunters). Kirk has the ability to change this. Who knows if he's ready - but Reese is no longer having competitive at-bats and I don't think this can continue during the stretch run. Someone would have to come off the 40-man roster but that's a solvable problem (perhaps someone goes on the 45-day IL). They obviously think he's close to MLB-ready, so let's find out.
bpoz - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#389861) #
Well thought out Cracka. By being on the taxi squad he is getting familiar with the ML pitchers.

He can be like Ken Dryden. Play a handful of games and earn the #1 goal keeper spot.
hypobole - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#389863) #
For any pitching junkies, there's a very interesting article up at FG on Devin Williams' one-of-a-kind changeup. How good is it?

"When batters swing at the pitch, they miss 58.9% of the time. Thatís the highest whiff rate for any changeup thrown more than 50 times by almost 10 points. And if a batter makes contact with the pitch, theyíre likely to put it on the ground; the pitch has a groundball rate of 63.6% on 11 balls in play. Williams has collected 21 strikeouts off the pitch and he hasnít allowed a single hit off it."

One note that wasn't mentioned was the scouting report that showed his change as a 40 grade. Just a guess, but I imagine the thinking was "That's not what a good change is supposed to look like"

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/devin-williams-and-the-unicorn-changeup/
John Northey - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#389864) #
Based on sOPS+ (OPS+ vs only players at the same position) the Jays catchers rank 29th out of 30 - only Cleveland is worse (120/259/188 vs the Jays 130/240/231). The sOPS+ is 39 - remember that is vs other catchers only. Ugh. If Kirk is decent on defense and can hit then it might be time to say 'screw it' to service time issues and call him up. McGuire's negative OPS+ (even vs just other catchers - he is -29 vs other catchers while Jansen is a 68) is a bit much no matter how good on defense he is.

  • 1B: 17th sOPS+=90, Tellez doing best.
  • 2B: 7th sOPS+ 129, even Panik doing well (109) when at 2B
  • 3B: 30th sOPS+ 49, ugh. Drury dragged this down badly, Shaw is an 84, Panik 70, Drury -41.
  • SS: 12th sOPS+ 102. Bo 176, Panik 60, Espinal 52 - others just 1 game each.
  • LF: 9th sOPS+ 109. All Gurriel, no one else has 10 PA there. (9 for Alford with a 101)
  • CF: 1st sOPS+ 157. Wow. Grichuk 144, Hernandez 299 in 26 PA (wow!), Biggio & Alford just 14 PA between them
  • RF: 11th sOPS+ 116: Hernandez is just a 103 here, Biggio 157, Fisher 120, McKinney went 1-1 here.
  • DH: 11th sOPS+ 117: Vlad 152, Tellez 118, Grichuk 70, no one else has 10 PA
So the Jays are in good shape vs the league at all but 3B, 1B, and CA. CA and 3B being black holes but helped at 3B by releasing Drury at long last. 70 at 3B moves the Jays to 26th, 80 to 23rd (Baltimore). Adding Villar should help with the 3B black hole via the infield shuffle it creates. If Vlad gets it going 1B should be above average too. That leaves only CA as a pure black hole offensively. Thus if the Jays are serious about contending this year it might be time to try Kirk. Jansen on his own would rank 23rd, one point below Tampa Bay's catchers. Joseph lifetime is a 69 OPS+ so I doubt he'd do anything significant to help offense. Kirk's 918 OPS+ in the minors looks good, but just 71 games in A+, 0 in AA/AAA so that would be a major stretch to call him up already (Delgado had 4 years in the minors including 140 games in AA before called up to catch 2 games for the WS champs in 1993 then back to the minors for most of the next 2 years for example).
hypobole - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#389865) #
Don't know why people keep wanting to put Villar at 3rd base. It was tried in 2015/2016 and he was awful.

Our coaching staff did a really good job turning Danny from a mediocre defensive catcher to one of the best. If they could even come close to that with Kirk it would be great.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#389866) #
Since August 4 the Jays have played 27 games and in 16 of these they have won or lost by 1 run. A further 5 have been won or lost by 2 runs.

Anthony Alford hit a home run last night for the Pirates. I hope he gets playing time with Pittsburgh.
scottt - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#389868) #
He is quick behind the plate, blocks well and is an accurate thrower. He earns praise for his solid arm strength and catch-and-throw skills that helped him throw out 38 percent of attempted basestealers in 2019.

Kirk is too short to play first but could pinch hit.
I don't think he runs well at all.

If everybody get suddenly healthy there is going to be some tough decisions.
uglyone - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#389869) #
Maybe Kirk's good arm and glove make him a 3B.
Mylegacy - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#389870) #
I fell in love with Kirky when I heard the Jays had signed a 5' 8" Mexican pitcher for $10,000 that they were going to convert to a catcher. I remember thinking, "Oh well, at least the guy will have a good arm." Then I heard he was, wait for it, 265 pounds (120 kilograms to those of you metrically inclined). My interest spiked off the charts. A tiny freak of nature. Interesting. Then the results showed he could hit. Seriously, hit. THEN - FINALLY - I saw some film of him...
My scouting report: Behind the plate Alejandro Kirk is surprisingly agile. He gets down low, sets up as an excellent target and can get anything he can reach. His arm, as advertised, is very good. His accuracy on throws to 2nd is very good. With the bat - WOW - the man has excellent strike zone awareness. He has, and will get even more, perhaps prodigious power.
BUT - SOMETHING sets him apart from almost any other hitter I've seen. He is a 265 pound, short armed, ball of granite. When he makes it to the Bigs I suspect his arms may end up being among the shortest in Major League history. These short arms STOP him from swinging for a ball too far, up, in or out.  His 21 years of living in his body have taught him that 6 inches outside might as well be 18 inches to his longer armed teammates. His swing only covers the strike zone! Just like a 6'2" hitter almost never swings at anything over a foot off the plate, Captain Kirk rarely swings at anything 3" off the plate.
I suspect when his career is over, his fame will be such that advertisers will pay him millions to play the "Most interesting man in the world" in countless thousands of advertising campaigns.
I love the guy. In a manly sort of congenial way, naturally...
John Northey - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#389872) #
Wonder if the Jays have tried Kirk at anything other than catcher during the summer camp? If he could cover 3B as well then his value jumps to this team with the 'meh at best' 3B situation (worst OPS+ at 3B of any team, but that was big time affected by Drury, but Shaw is no great shakes). Given hypobole saying Villar cannot play a decent 3B we need options there. I'm assuming Biggio could do it as he seems good anywhere they put him (he does have 381 innings at 3B in the minors, 7 games there last year before called up).

Hmm... so ideal lineup once everyone is healthy?
CA: Jansen/Kirk
1B: Vlad
2B: Villar
SS: Bichette
3B: Biggio
LF: Gurriel
CF: Grichuk
RF: Hernandez
DH: Tellez
UT: Shaw/Panik/Espinal/Fisher (one has to go to keep that 10 man pen, probably Espinal)

If Shaw starts to hit then Villar goes back to the bench, Biggio to 2B. I like the idea of Kirk being up if he is ready with the bat and glove. McGuire has had 41 PA and only 3 hits. I don't think he is about to start hitting.
scottt - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#389874) #
Biggio doesn't have a good arm. I don't think he works at third base.
 
Villar has really bad fielding% at 3B, but not quite as bad as what he's done at 2B and SS as a Blue Jays.

rtcaino - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#389876) #
Montoyo said he would prefer to put Biggio there, as opposed to Villar. For what it's worth.
hypobole - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#389880) #
Villar has really bad fielding% at 3B, but not quite as bad as what he's done at 2B and SS as a Blue Jays.

You made me chuckle. Yeah, 1 error per 9 innings is a difficult pace to maintain for very long.
hypobole - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#389889) #
Mentioned the rough year Smoakie has had with the Brewers. He's just been DFA'd and replaced by waiver claim Daniel Vogelbach.
Magpie - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#389890) #
Kirk may be an extreme example, but baseball history is simply full of squat short-armed guys who could really hit, from Yogi Berra to Kirby Puckett. For all the reasons you were discussing - they literally can't reach bad pitches. (It didn't stop Yogi from trying.) But maybe even more important, the bat simply doesn't have as far to travel to get into the hitting zone.
scottt - Thursday, September 03 2020 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#389892) #
Sloppy game on both sides, but still fun to watch.
It's great to have lots of good pitching.
Another 5 games through the long weekend.

hypobole - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#389894) #
Sloppy is relative. We only had one runner killed on the basepaths. :)

Perez was impressive, as was Sixto Sanchez for Miami yesterday. Credit mostly to our pitching staff we were able to win both.

Don't think Joe Panik has had one good thing said about him by anyone but me. But prior to reaching base 3 times tonight, including that clutch single to drive in the 1st run, he's been pretty good the past 2 weeks - 103 wRC+. I know people hate SSS, but the past 2 weeks were over half his PA's on the season (34 of 66).
Lylemcr - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 03:11 AM EDT (#389895) #
Can they put Vlady back at 3rd?
scottt - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 06:27 AM EDT (#389896) #
Panik had his first RBI of the year. He's kinda hot right now.
Good for everybody.

Smoak got DFA on the logic that with so few games remaining, there isn't enough time to fix anything.
So they replace him with Vogelback who has been twice as bad.
Smoak had a 70 OPS+, Vogelbach, 31.

Alford hit a homerun in his first Pirate game.
Hitting .400 with a 1.4 OPS after 2 games.
Best of luck Anthony, there wasn't enough AB here.

ISLAND BOY - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 07:30 AM EDT (#389897) #
For those that didn't see the game last night, the Jays had men on second and third and 1 out in the tenth inning. The Red Sox made the dubious decision to pitch to Hernandez rather than walk him and take their chances with Vlad who is a prime double play candidate. It seems like the Jays have been playing in a lot of sloppy games with poor decisions by both teams lately.
Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#389899) #
Statcast has Villar as having 52nd percentile sprint speed now.  All of his Statcast batting metrics are also way off this year so far- exit velocity, barrels etc.  They don't have a goofball error % but he'd be way up there. 

It seems to me that reactions to the pandemic vary from player to player, as they do from person to person.  Villar may have taken a larger performance hit than most.  I agree with hypobole that it's time to cut losses.  Villar shouldn't be out there every day.  Let him earn it. 

Who had Ryu and Teoscar as the Blue Jays most valuable players this season on their bingo card?  Not me. 
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#389900) #
Teoscar currently has a wRC+ of 167.

Jose Bautista's wRC+ in his breakout season of 2010 (when he hit 54 home runs): 165.

They're two different players, of course. But what a season Hernandez is having so far. Impressive.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#389901) #
I expected Ryu to do well. The surprise is that Pearson didn't. He was so dominant back in March.

The Jays are still missing Bichette who was their best player and Giles who was their best reliever.

They did a fantastic job of finding good bullpen arms left and right. Yamaguchi/Dolis from Japan, Bass on waivers, Hatch on a trade, developing Romano. Good mix of youth and veterans.

greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#389902) #
Looking at the free agent starting pitchers that the team (and Bauxites) were considering in the off-season, in 2020 at least, Ryu has significantly outperformed the much more expensive Cole.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#389903) #
The biggest turnaround for me is that this outfield was not projected to be good, but has been a huge strength ranking 3rd in WAR league wide.
Cracka - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#389904) #
Taijuan Walker at $2M might have been the best value free-agent SP acquisition in the offseason. Every start like last night pushes his price tag up by a least a million dollars. If he continues like this, he could be looking at a significant multi-year deal. He just turned 28.
Kasi - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#389906) #
I'd say that is unlikely unless his velocity holds more to his first start than to the second. He needs to be around 94 not 92 to get there. If he pitches like yesterday he's a better Roark nothing special.

I echo the brining up Kirk point. Our catchers our giving us nothing and if Kirk is considered a good pitchers catcher I'd go with him because of the better bat. Right now Jansen and McGuire are giving us nothing. Also please come back soon Bo, it's both annoying he's been out this long and amazing the Jays have done so well without him. Getting him and Giles back would be big and hopefully near end of season we get Romano and Pearson back too and just have a huge power pen. (I don't think Pearson will start other than as an opener anytime this year)
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#389907) #
If Pearson is healthy, I expect him to be very good in time. It's not unusual for a player to struggle in his first go-around in the majors. This is perhaps especially so when the expectations of the player are so high and he hasn't spent a ton of time in the minors.
chris_jays - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#389908) #
I don't love how FanGraphs tracks this. They count all of Biggio's WAR in the Jays OF rankings but then also include his full WAR in the 2B rankings. How can he count in both areas?

Shouldn't it be based on at bats while playing as an OF?
dalimon5 - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#389909) #
"Looking at the free agent starting pitchers that the team (and Bauxites) were considering in the off-season, in 2020 at least, Ryu has significantly outperformed the much more expensive Cole."

I think most evaluators would still pick Cole as having the better season so far. Remember, it's heavily rumoured that Toronto had one of if not the highest bid for Gerrit Cole who chose his child hood Yankees instead.

-------------------------------

I had Ryu, Hernandez and Alford as the top 3 players for this year. I still think Vlad will be the 2nd coming of Delmon Young and Bichete just an average hitter over his career. I would trade Vlad in a heart beat if I can get back a top 15 pitcher either MLB or prospect.

-------------------------------

Question - if the Jays were to trade Vlad (unlikely due to his massive potential and still young age, but IF), what would a fair return be? Curious to know what Beauxites would expect back in return and if they would slant the return more towards Vlad's potential or Vlad's actual performance, which of course is still very good for a player his age.
Kasi - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#389910) #
I'm sure most people would take Cole long term no doubt. But no one argues that Cole hasn't been disappointing. Ryu is easily having the better season. Not that Ryu is the best of the free agent SP signings. Wheeler I think is doing better and there is a couple others as well in the mix.
hypobole - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#389911) #
I think most evaluators would still pick Cole as having the better season so far.

I think they all would pick Cole as the best in the future, but not so far. Ryu has given up 3 HR's in 43 IP so far. Cole 12 in 48 IP. No pitcher has given up more. Ryu 2.72 ERA 2.72 FIP. Cole 3.91 ERA 4.83 FIP.
Kasi - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#389912) #
Yeah Ryu clearly is having the better season by both types of WAR. I don't see how there is any debate on who is having a better 2020 season. Ofc long term you likely still take Cole, but you better hope he returns to form next year.
uglyone - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#389913) #
Yeah Ryu was always a very good signing. His numbers have consistently been legit elite - as good as anyone's, even Cole's.. Age and injury are different part of that equation imo - and im never as concerned with those as much as most seem to be. I was pleasantly surprised when they signed him.
bpoz - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#389916) #
NYY and the Jays have identical records. Tied for 2nd in the ALE.
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#389917) #
Cole did throw a lot of innings last year. And this season hasnít exactly been a normal one in terms of preparation and routine. Cole probably still has a number of good seasons left in him.
dalimon5 - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#389918) #
Cole has a lot of starts coming up against the Jays and Orioles and you will see him rack up another 60K for the season and get his HR under control. It's completely out of line for him. That said, yes, it is accurate to say that up until now Ryu has been the better starter, even if you factor in "analytics" over general overall wins and value to a teams success. So I hereby retract my earlier comment about Cole having better season in eyes of evaluators.
hypobole - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#389919) #
Jays playoff odds now 82% at 538, 84.8% at FG. Tigers around 17% at both sites. No other team behind us with better than 3%.

My cuttlefish bet with Mike still looking good, which is even more important than the Jays playoff hopes. I kid.

christaylor - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#389920) #
I think Vlad is essentially untradeable. I can propose a little thought experiment. Let's consider a 1-1 challenge trade for a pitcher. I don't have any current names, but let's reach into the past to prospect Drabek (forget what happened) or young AJ Happ (again, ignore what happened). Even if Vlad is the player he is now for a decade are those deals appealing? Deep breath, forget the hype, yes, Vlad could be Travis Snider or something, but he's not yet. He might be Prince Fielder. He is not, nor ever was, going to be his dad. I suggest time is better spent enjoying watching him play and letting his own misestimation of his own speed and athleticism amuse you rather than infuriate you. If 2020 teaches us anything it is to remember, "We bought the ticket, now enjoy the ride." (with apoligies to Bill Hicks and Amanda Palmer for kicking this line)
hypobole - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#389921) #
Right now, Cole's scheduled starts going every 5th day will be O's X 2, Jays, Red Sox, Marlins.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#389922) #
Pitchers fluctuate based on lots of things.
Health is a major concern and the only thing you can do is have depth.

Bautista was an All-Star from 2010 to 2015. People remember the 2015 run, but 2013 was a complete failure that can be compared to the Angels in 2020--or any year in the last decade--and 2014 was a wasted year because most of the rotation was injured and they didn't want to spend money on getting new pitchers.

hypobole - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#389923) #
Chris, you reminded me of an analogy I'd thought of for Vlad. Years ago my kids got a kitten. It would race around and scoot under the buffet. One day I heard a whack. The kitten, which was now a cat, had been racing around and had just found out it didn't fit under the buffet anymore. Never heard or saw that happen again. I'm just hoping Vlad is smarter than a cat.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#389924) #
Today's doubleheader  appears to be Roark vs Godley and Stripling vs Mazza.
It's nice that every decent Red Sox reliever pitched yesterday.
I think there's an extra guy in the second game. SRF, maybe?
I got a huge bag of popcorn. 
Parker - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#389925) #
One day I heard a whack. The kitten, which was now a cat, had been racing around and had just found out it didn't fit under the buffet anymore. Never heard or saw that happen again. I'm just hoping Vlad is smarter than a cat.

I'm hoping the VladdyCat's owners aren't just shimming up the legs on the buffet each time he smacks his head on it.
Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#389926) #
Thanks for the cuttlefish bet update, hypobole.  Minnesota is 3 games ahead of the Tigers and the Yanks are 2 games ahead.  Nothing would make me happier than the Tigers nudging out the Yankees for the last playoff spot on the final day of the season.    The National League is much tighter.

Today's lineup for the opener: Biggio 4, Grichuk 8, Tellez 3, Hernandez 9, Guerrero Jr. 0, Gurriel 7, Shaw 5, Panik 6, Jansen 2.  I hope they score 15 runs with this lineup, so we see it more often. 
hypobole - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#389927) #
Twins Randy "Smoke-and-Mirrors" Dobnak vs Tigers Matt "Meatball" Boyd in the 1st of 2. Boyd just gave up his 9th and 10th HR's to the 1st 2 Twins batters.
hypobole - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#389928) #
Actually that's 10th and 11th for Boyd, now 1 behind MLB co-leaders Cole and Stripling.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#389929) #
SRF added.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#389930) #
The Yankees have just placed Urshela on the IL and recalled Miguel Andujar.
hypobole - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#389931) #
And the Tigers lose the 1st game 2-0. Jays 2 1/2 games up.
bpoz - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#389932) #
Tigers lost and are a game under 500.

Hope Vlad has a good game. Villar not in the lineup.
John Northey - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#389933) #
What a weird year. It has been said 1001 times, and it will be said 1001 more times. 36 games in, 20-16 tied for 2nd in the AL East. In 2019 15-21 at this point (Ugh), 19-17 in 2018 54-72 after. Hernandez hitting 247/302/526 then, Kevin Pillar 309/356/537, Yangervis Solarte 264/347/519. Marcus Stroman having a nightmare start 0-5 7.71 ERA. Just a good way to remember that so far so good, but in a 'real' season the Jays would not have established anything with this run beyond a bit of fun. Instead they are looking like playoff locks. Weird.
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#389934) #
And now production from the bottom of the order. This team is starting to become pretty good.
hypobole - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#389935) #
Great to see the Shaw and especially Danny with the HR's. Also Dan pointing out that Panik has been having good at bats lately, so it's not just me.
Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#389936) #
I hope they score 15 runs with this lineup, so we see it more often

They might need 15 runs to win this game.
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#389937) #
Panik: Walk. Run when you get the sign. Dive into the bag. Above all: Donít panic. Weíve got this.
Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#389938) #
Panik's EVs last few weeks have been noticeably high.  After starting out slow, his hard-hit rate is actually a touch above major league average.  And he's swinging at strikes. 
krose - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#389939) #
Interesting to see some shared doubt regarding Vladdyís future projection. Has always been apparent to me that the upside had a high probability of being limited. Yes, he had an unusual upside potential. Maybe itís the educator in me. Iíve seen so many young people with great potential. One of my advisers used to quip, ďIntelligence (natural ability) is necessary but itís insufficientĒ.
uglyone - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#389940) #
Shaw just a tick under league average hitting now. With plus defense.
Four Seamer - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#389943) #
These mini-revivals from Shaw and Panik are good reminders about the dangers of small sample sizes, particularly when dealing with veterans, and are about the only reason I'm biting my tongue on Tanner Roark right at the moment.
krose - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#389944) #
Shawís and Panikís hitting uptick improve a couple weak spots, but man this team is hard to watch.
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#389946) #
Shaw is a triple away from the cycle. It could happen, especially in Fenway.
grjas - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#389953) #
Clearly Merryweather was uncomfortable with us winning by more than a run.
Cracka - Friday, September 04 2020 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#389965) #
I tend to overreact sometimes, but here's what I'd do tomorrow. DFA Derek Fisher and drop Espinal to the taxi squad. Then I'd add Jonathan Davis & Alejandro Kirk from the taxi squad and keep 3 catchers until Reese McGuire can be "optioned" without actually burning his final option (~Sept 8?). This might coincide with Bo Bichette being activated. I'm fine to keep Reese in the organization but I don't think he's playable if he can't hit AND makes stupid decisions as a catcher with the bases loaded. Davis is ready to go and would instantly become our best outfield defender, best pinch-runner, etc. Fisher just doesn't do anything well enough to justify his spot. And I think Kirk is the best available bat that's not on the roster.
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