Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
It's the last series before the mid-summer break. The Athletics will want to give a better account of themselves this time around, which is enough to make me edgy. 

But enough about them. Let's talk about me.

Geography was never my best subject back in the day. Oddly enough, I like maps. I like looking at them. I'm especially fond of city maps, and used to have a collection of them. But my brain resists absorbing the information they provide. I even manage to get lost driving around the city at night - and this is my home town and I've lived here for a long, long time.

Give me a map and I'm confident I could find the famous islands - Australia, Japan - and the enormous countries - Russia, China, Brazil. I think I could locate the western European ones where all those books I read in university were written. The rest of the globe remains a persistent muddle. And this also applies to our large southern neighnbour. If you showed me a map with the fifty American states without the state names helpfully included - I'd be very lucky indeed if I got even a third of them right. Georgia is on the ocean? Who knew? Besides General Sherman. 

So every now and then I indulge myself with an exercise like the following in the desperate hope that something, someday, will stick. 

Even in my dotage, I try to improve myself! Please, admire the effort!

So where do Blue Jays come from?

All over the place, naturally. As for this group...

California, USA (4): Myles Straw, Tyler Heineman, Easton Lucas, Justin Bruihl, although the Straw family seems to moved to Florida by the time Myles was old enough for high school. There have been 2,514 major leaguers from California, and nowhere else on earth even comes close. So, as you would expect, the state has produced some pretty notable major leaguers - Barry Bonds is the WAR leader - other notables include Tom Seaver, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Randy Johnson and many other Hall of Famers. The greatest Blue Jay would be Dave Stieb. 

Colorado, USA (2): Kevin Gausman, Ryan Burr. There have been just 107 major leaguers from Colorado. The WAR leader is Roy Halladay, obviously also the greatest Blue Jay from Colorado. Another huge, hard-throwing RH from the state was Rich Gossage.

Connecticut, USA (1): George Springer. This is actually what got me started. I was watching the game and it occurred to me that I didn't know where Springer came from. I looked it up, and thought - Connecticut? How exotic. I didn't know baseball players came from Connecticut. I thought Yale University was all they had there. But it turns there have been 210 major leaguers from Connecticut, And George Springer is easily the best player from the state since Roger Connor. Who's been dead for 94 years., Connor last played in 1897.

Delaware, USA (1): Mason Fluharty. This really is exotic - there have only been 65 major leaguers from Delaware, the population of which is barely one million. The WAR leader, Paul Goldschmidt, was born in Wilmington but actually grew up in Texas. But Fluharty helped his Delaware high school to their first state championship. The most notable Blue Jay was Kevin Mench, who was a disappointment to us all.

Florida, USA (3): Bo Bichette, Bowden Francis, Alek Manoah - There have been 744 major leaguers born in Florida, and lots more who ended up living there. Athletes in general, and baseball players in particular, often end up living in Florida. No state taxes. Not much snow. It's also where most teams conduct spring training and it's nice to still be at home for those six weeks. But Dante Bichette was born in Florida and was living there during his Rockies days when Bo was born. The Florida WAR leader was the great southpaw Steve Carlton - other notables are Chipper Jones, Tim Raines, and Zack Greinke. The greatest Blue Jay is an argument between three years of steady elite production from Fred McGriff or two years of spectacular play from Josh Donaldson.

Georgia, USA (1): Nick Sandlin. There have been 569 major leaguers from Georgia, which goes right to the sea. I remembered! Is it just me, or has Sandlin not made much of an impression on us yet? He's been in and out of the lineup with injuries, but he's been rather good when he's been on the hill. The greatest Georgia player is obviously Ty Cobb, but Jackie Robinson, Johnny Mize, and Frank Thomas stand out just as much. As for Blue Jays - Ron Fairly was only here for one year. Colby Rasmus was born in Georgia but he was really an Alabama boy.

Missouri, USA (1): Max Scherzer. There have been 688 major leaguers from Missouri, and Mad Max himself is the WAR leader. This is a state that has produced some pretty impressive major league talent - Yogi Berra, Carl Hubbell, Zack Wheat - as well as a couple of outstanding players who may not make it to Cooperstown (and in fact spent most of their careers elsewhere) but still left a pretty large mark on Blue Jays history: David Cone and Mark Buehrle.

New Jersey, USA (1): Davis Schneider. There have been 483 major leaguers from New Jersey and Mike Trout is already the greatest player they've produced. But he's not alone - we also have Billy Hamilton and Goose Goslin. Derek Jeter was born in Jersey but he's really a Michigan kid. Al Leiter would be the most notable Bllue Jay.

New York, USA (2): Jeff Hoffman, Ernie Clement. There have been 1,280 major leaguers from New York and the WAR leader is Eddie Collins. Some of the other names are equally impressive - Lou Gehrig, Warren Spahn, Carl Yastrzemski, Alex Rodriguez. The most notable Blue Jays are Marcus Stroman and Frank Catalanotto.

Ohio, USA (2): Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer. There have been 1,080 major leaguers from Ohio but there's still almost no chance of me correctly locating the place on a map. Oh well. It was Cy Young's home state, of course, and he's your WAR champ. Ohio also gave the game Mike Schmidt, merely the greatest third baseman who ever lived, and a couple of 300 game winners who spent small parts of their careers in Toronto - Roger Clemens and Phil Niekro. Shannon Stewart and Clemens are the greatest Ohio Blue Jays. Clemens always seemed to think of himself as a Texas, but he didn't get there until he was 15.

Oregon, USA (1): Nathan Lukes. There have been just 145 major leaguers from Oregon so this also seems a little exotic. Not a whole lot of people actually live in Oregon, and it hasn't sent anyone to Cooperstown. Adley Rutschmann is working on it, but he's got a long, long way to go. It sure looked like Dale Murphy was on his way, but his career fizzled out. Mickey Lolich is probably the state's greatest player. The most notable Blue Jay so far has been Darwin Barney.

Pennsylvania, USA (2): Brendon Little, Joey Loperfido. There have been 1,508 major leaguers from Pennsylvania, more than anywhere except California (more than New York? Wow.) although Loperfido really grew up in Jersey. Honus Wagner, one of the greatest players who ever stepped on a baseball field, leads a very distinguished bunch - Stan Musial, Christy Mathewson, Ken Griffey. But I fear the best the Blue Jays can offer is Gary Lavelle, as there wasn't much left of Lance Parrish by the time he got here.

South Carolina, USA (1): Chad Green. There have been 253 major leaguers from South Carolina, although Green's family had moved to Illinois by the time he went to high school. The greatest player from the state was Joe Jackson, who isn't in the Hall of Fame and shouldn't be. Larry Doby and Jim Rice are both there, although Willie Randolph might have a better case, if you ask me. The most notable Blue Jays would be Orlando Hudsdon. And Whit Merrifield.

Texas, USA (2): Braydon FIsher, Will Wagner. There have been 1,181 major leaguers from Texas and Will Wagner isn't really one of them Like Guerrero, he happened to be born in the city where his father was playing at the time. The Wagners are from the Appalachians in southeast Virginia (and Billy Wagner's upbringing is a story!). But there have been many, many great major leaguers from Texas. Tris Speaker is the WAR leader. Others include Rogers Hornsby, Greg Maddux, Frank Robinson, Joe Morgan, Nolan Ryan, and Eddie Mathews. Cito Gaston is a Texan, of course, but the most notable Jays player was probably Mike Timlin.

Utah, USA (1): Paxton Schultz. There have been just 50 major leaguers from Utah, a state best known for its basketball team. Bruce Hurst is by far the most accomplished player. The only Blue Jay from Ohio before Schultz was Brandon Lyon.

Washington (1) Addison Barger. There have been 229 major leaguers from Washington state, led by a couple of long-time Cubs infielders: Ron Santo and Ryne Sandberg. They're both in the Hall, and the greatest Washington Blue Jay, Long John Olerud, has a decent case of his own.

Wisconsin (2) Daulton Varsho, Alan Roden. There have been 257 major leaguers from Wiconsin, led by Kid Nichols, the great pitcher from the turn of the last century. I think Varsho has already overtaken Eric Hinske as the best Blue Jay.

And there's also...

Puerto Rico (1): Jose Berrios. There have been 309 major leaguers born in Puerto Rico, which is of course neither an American state nor an independent nation. Roberto Clemente is the island's greatest player, but Ivan Rodriguez, Roberto Alomar, and Carlos Beltran all had Hall-worthy careers. Carlos Delgado is the greatest Blue Jay, of course.

As for those born outside the United States...

Canada (1): Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Maybe this one should have an asterisk? Vladimir Guerrero was certainly born in Montreal, but only because his father happened to be playing there in 1999. He mostly grew up in the Dominican Republic, of course. There have been 268 major leaguers born in Canada, and Ferguson Jenkins is the WAR leader. Larry Walker is in the Hall, and Joey Votto should get there as well. The greatest Blue Jay would be Russell Martin, although the omnipotent Paul Quantrill was always a favourite.

Cuba (2): Yariel Rodriguez, Lazaro Estrada - There have been 398 major leaguers from Cuba although Castro's revolution 66 years ago reduced the flow to the majors of Cuban born players to a trickle. Rafael Palmeiro, the WAR leader, moved to Florida when he was very young and grew up there. Tony Perez, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva are Hall of Famers from the Before Times, and Luis Tiant might have been the best of them all. The most notable Blue Jays are Yunel Escobar and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Dominican Republic (3): Yimi Garcia, Jonatan Clase, Robinson Pina. There have been a whopping 930 major leaguers from the Dominican Republic, almost all of whom played during my lifetime. Albert Pujols is the WAR leader for all non-US born players, and Pedro Martinez, Juan Marichal, and Adrian Beltre just scratch the surface of the many outstanding players from the eastern end of Hispaniola. I think Jose Bautista edges Tony Fernandez as the greatest Blue Jay, and George Bell, Edwin Encarnacion, Juan Guzman, and Damaso Garcia all loom pretty large in franchise history. Sil Campusano, maybe not so much.

Mexico (1): Alejandro Kirk. There have been just 152 major leaguers from Mexico, a huge country with a strong baseball tradition, but very well established Leagues of Their Own. The greatest Mexican major leaguers are a couple of LH from the 1980s who both threw lots of screwballs: Fernando Valenzuela and Teddy Higuera. The most distinguished Blue Jay before Captain Alejandro would be Marco Estrada, one of the better post-season pitchers in franchise history.

Panama (1): Leo Jimenez - There have been just 81 major leaguers from Panama, but they can boast a member of the 3,000 hit club in Rod Carew and the greatest reliever of them all in Mariano Rivera. The only Blue Jay of note is Juan Berenguer.

Venezuela (2): Andres Gimenez, Anthony Santander. There have been 496 major leaguers from Venezuela - at the moment, only one has made it to the Hall of Fame (Luis Aparicio) but Miguel Cabrera is obviously a sure thing, and there are others with a good chance to join him, Jose Altuve, Ronald Acuna, and Bobby Abreu in particular. Kelvim Escobar and Marco Scutaro are the most notable Blue Jays.

There are many other states in the union, and many other countries around the globe. They're just don't have any representation on the current Blue Jays roster. And that's about all the geography I can deal with for now anyway.


Matchups!

Fri 11 July - Scherzer (0-0, 4.76) vs Severino (2-10, 5.30)
Sat 12 July - Gausman (6-6, 4.13) vs Lopez (2-5, 4.26)
Sun 13 July - Berrios (5-3, 3.53) vs Springs (7-6, 3.92)
Toronto at … Sacramento?, July 11-13 | 113 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#463410) #
uglyone pointed out the Jays season has been 3 parts. Decent 12-8 start, a brutal 1-8 stretch, and then 41-23 since.

The A's are somewhat similar, just with a much more dramatic middle stretch. 22-20 start, 1-20 middle, 16-16 since.
John Northey - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#463411) #
For regions - Alabama isn't represented right now, but has the 6th best Jay (by bWAR) and Hank Aaron/Willie Mays/Ozzie Smith (wow). 8 HOF'ers and next in WAR after them is Jimmy Key, then 2 more HOF'ers including Satchel Paige. Later on are other good Jays like Doyle Alexander, Alex Ríos, Kendall Graveman, Roy Lee Jackson, and probably a few I missed. Also someone who should've been in Jim Canada (retired in '45, ah well but that name).

As to this series, I love that the Jays have lower ERA's for the starter in all 3 games. Will that result in wins? Who knows?
pooks137 - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#463413) #
Fascinating geographic historical MLB breakdown Magpie!

Hard to believe that NY has produced more ball players than TX.

Or OH has produced more than the entire DR.

I guess the frontloading of MLB historical demographics by the late 19th & first half of the 20th century gives those two cold weather states a significant head start.
scottt - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#463415) #
It's a series in a minor league park, which isn't great.
And the games are late, which is quite bad.
Here's a Friday game that might as well been on Apple tv.

There's been issue with the mound earlier in the season.
Zack Wheeler said it was terrible and felt like cement.
Joe Ryan blamed it for Pablo Lopez's injury.
Severino has been terrible at Sutter Health.
The A's have the second-worst home ERA behind only Colorado.

This could feel like spring training.
The clubhouses are in the field and there's no AC.

Overall, the A's are 18-30 at home and 21-26 on the road.

Cracka - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#463417) #
I'm a geography nerd, and I really enjoyed reading this Magpie. I'm fascinated by how different MLB players grew up. Bo was the Florida high school player of the year, while Myles Straw got cut from his high school team (don't get me started on Addison Barger).

One of the coolest pieces of Blue Jays random geographic trivia that I know is that our two winningest managers, Cito & Gibby, were raised in houses about 10 minutes apart from each other in San Antonio.

Not looking forward to seeing the ballpark in Sacramento, but visiting teams are apparently coping better than the "home" squad.
Magpie - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#463418) #
I recall doing an exercise like this some years ago, and on that occasion my original point of departure was the greatest major leaguer born in each major league city. Since then, Oakland (birthplace of Dennis Eckersley) has lost its team. So for this brief, shining moment, the pride of Sacramento would be Stan Hack, the old Cubs third baseman. But not for long. Las Vegas' own Bryce Harper is already by far the most accomplished of Nevada's 55 major leaguers. Though I always rather liked Barry Zito.
Magpie - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#463419) #
I guess the frontloading of MLB historical demographics by the late 19th & first half of the 20th century gives those two cold weather states a significant head start.

Absolutely. The game begins while the west was still being settled. At the beginning of the 20th century, when both major leagues were in full operation, California's population was barely one million. Now it's got more people than Canada and the fourth biggest economy in the world.
Magpie - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#463420) #
I said "settled" - maybe I should have said "driven out the people already there."
scottt - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#463429) #
Burr back on the 60IL.
Tommy Nance selected.
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#463430) #
Clemens always seemed to think of himself as a Texas, but he didn't get there until he was 15.

This surprised me. Clemens was always going on about Texas and until now I assumed he was from there.
vw_fan17 - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#463438) #
Ohio's basically "across Lake Erie" for the western part of the lake, but not touching the actual western tip, that's Michigan. Ok, so I've lived in the US for 20+ years now, and my wife had a sister in Ohio for ~10 years, so we did the road trip around Erie multiple times to visit family in Ontario and then Ohio..

But it's still way easier to find, than say Tennessee or Missouri or Kentucky or such, IMHO.
John Northey - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#463439) #
Poor Burr - that has to suck, just getting back then right away put on the 60 day IL again. Funny thing is he will be arbitration eligible after this season despite 99% of the year being on the IL (I suspect he'll be DFA'd once the year is done, no more options left). Also funny is his 0.1 bWAR for his 2 shutout innings is more than he got last year over 32 2/3 IP (0.0 WAR). Stats can be weird sometimes.

Nance is very meh to me. He did good in AAA (12 K/9 vs 2 BB/9 with 58% ground balls) but will it translate? Guess we'll find out.
pooks137 - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#463440) #
Hard to imagine Burr surviving offseason roster 40-man roster crunches when he and the other 60-day IL guys have to be added back after the World Series (which will be a few days after the Jays parade).

Nance seems like a placeholder on the 40-man like Will Robertson was. He's 34 and has no options either.

Nance might not survive the ASB with the team, let alone the upcoming trade deadline for reinforcements.

Silver lining for Burr is an entire year of MLB pay desite only two official appearances and another whole year of service time.

The service time could also work against Burr and increase the chance he gets non-tendered considering it pushes him into 1st year arb.
John Northey - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#463441) #
Vlad with 1000 hits now, Bo still 171 away so won't reach it as a Jay unless he resigns this winter. Kirk is closing in on 500 and can reach it this year.

As the Jays go up 4-0 while I type. Vlad stealing second, Springer going home and probably missed the plate but went back while the catcher ignored him. The A's have a lot of issues clearly.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 11 2025 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#463442) #
This offense against a nasty Severino was extremely tough and impressive. Never saw this once in '23 or '24. Feels like they would fare much better in a playoff series against an ace. Severino looked like Gerrit Cole.
Glevin - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 01:08 AM EDT (#463443) #
Made that close at the end but a win is a win. Loving Lukes hitting leadoff against RHP. Imagine hitting a guy who gets on base leadoff?
blu-j - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#463445) #
Had 'em all the way...
vw_fan17 - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#463446) #
The broadcast crew mentioned the Jays possibly targeting Severino in a trade a couple of times. Based on today's outing, I would consider that - he's signed for ~$21M (IIRC) for the next 2 years as well. I mean, Scherzer is probably not here next year anyway..

Since it seems to happen with every pitcher, I'm guessing it's a catcher (Kirk? Heinemann? Both?) thing - get 2 outs quickly, get up 0-2 on the next guy, then go fishing for 4 pitches and walk them, next guy gets a hit, pressure is on, etc.. It just seems to happen SO often that I wonder if maybe they're being a bit too careful at times..
Dr B - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#463447) #
Yep, planned to perfection.

I must admit I was mildly surprised they didn’t use one of the lower leverage arms when they were up by four. If they got into trouble, they could always bring in Hoffman to bail them out…
uglyone - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 02:29 AM EDT (#463448) #

ALE .533
NLC .513
ALW .499
NLE .488
ALC .481
NLW .480
pooks137 - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 02:41 AM EDT (#463449) #
Severino was only striking out 6 per 9 going into this game, which seems low for a guy who isn't a GB pitcher, under 40% this year.

He did look nasty with his heater and breaking pitches tonight. But only striking out 15-16% of batters faced seems like a little bit of a red flag for a guy you are acquiring for term.
scottt - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 06:58 AM EDT (#463450) #
Vlad is on many of the Blue Jays top ten list.
He's 10th in hit and could pass Damaso Garcia, Joe Carter and Shannon Stewart this year.
He's 9th in total bases. 8th in home runs, just 7 behind Barfield.
He's 9th in RBIs. 10th on walks.
He's 8th in bWAR for position player.

And yet, he's at least a year away to reach the top 10 for games played,
scottt - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#463451) #
I don't think the catcher has any impact on Scherzer's pitch selection.
It's the same with Bassitt and Gaussman is a basically a 2-pitch pitcher.

With 0-2, most pitchers don't want to throw a strikes and the hitters know it.
I assume that if the relievers are throwing lots of breaking stuff and trying to get hitters to expend even with 3 balls, that they are doing what the coaches want them to do.

Pitching is changing speed, moving the ball around and hitting the spots, but relievers are often just trying to execute the pitches they have.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#463453) #
The heat looked absolutely atrocious in Sacramento. Here in Southwestern Ontario, it already feels like we are increasingly experiencing U.S. (or Southeast Asian) style weather year after year. I can only imagine how hot it is going to be on Sunday afternoon.
hypobole - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#463454) #
A's took a lot of heat taking Kurtz over Caglianone last year, even after he signed for $500 K less. Early returns are sure making the A's look like they might have made the right call.  Both have huge power, but  Kurtz 15  degree launch angle is putting balls in the seats, Caglianone at 6 degrees isn't.
metafour - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#463455) #
Nick Kurtz has very extreme home/away splits. Don't forget that Sutter Health Park (where Oakland plays their home games) is grading out as an extreme hitters park this season (#2 in the league, just barely behind Coors Field).

Kurtz at Home: .295/.382/.695 for a 182 wRC+
Kurtz at Away: .202/.269/.372 for a 77 wRC+
electric carrot - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#463456) #
2025 Jays are the Just Enough To Win It Team (JETWIT). Let's hope it continues to play out with wins.

hypobole - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#463457) #
A's at home 58 HR, (10th) .426 SLG (10th)A's on road 65 HR (6th), .404 SLG (11th)
So as a team, their splits are fairly normal, with more HR's on the road.I think it's their pitching that makes the park seem so extreme. They have allowed 300 runs at home, behind only Colorado's 333. 28th place are the Nats at 257.
Glevin - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#463462) #
Some people upset that Springer got left off all star game even if he was deserving but I don't care about the all-star game so would rather guys get rested anyway. Misoriowski being named after five starts is crazy though when there a bunch of more deserving pitchers who have pitched all year.
pooks137 - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#463464) #
Probably best for Springer to actually get 3 proper rest days for the AS break.

Probably would've been ideal for Vlad and Kirk to have gotten a full vacation as well.

The broadcast has noted a few times that the number of everyday players 35+ like Springer is in single digits. And it only climbs to about 15 if one drops it to 34+.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#463466) #
It's getting harder to envision Hoffman closing games in October. Fisher also looks gassed... the Schneider bullpen experience is not for the weak of heart.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#463467) #
What did Schneider do last night that was so bad, Marc?
hypobole - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#463468) #
Yankees lost 6 in a row, highlighted by the Jays sweep, but still scored almost 6 runs per game. They've won 5 in a row since, averaging over 8 runs per game.

Matt Boyd has thrown 7 shutout innings at them today. 76 pitches, 3 hits.

99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#463469) #
Also, the Jays are currently tied with the Astros for the second best record in the AL.
hypobole - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#463470) #
Boyd finished with 8 shutout innings. Keller starts the 9th and one out later it's 5-2. Cubs win though, guaranteeing the Jays having sole possession of 1st at the AS break.
John Northey - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#463472) #
The rest at the break will probably be good for a few pitchers and Kirk (yes, he is at the ASG but has Wed/Thursday off after it).

Post break the tough games begin - 3 vs SF, 3 vs Yankees, 4 in Detroit, then a "breather" vs Baltimore for 3. If the Jays are still in 1st at the end of that stretch, they'll be set on the trade deadline, knowing they are very serious contenders for a title this year.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#463473) #
https://www.thestar.com/sports/blue-jays/blue-jays-thoughts-does-contract-status-of-shapiro-atkins-lead-to-big-swing-at-mlb/article_036ef1df-8a4b-4edf-8f87-4d24b6f1b457.html

Gregor Chisholm has hit the nail on the head here.

As I wrote back the day Ed Rogers bought MLSE, the days of the Jays being mid-market or even mid-upper tier are over. They are firmly in Mets/Dodgers/Yankees territory. Needless to say, Mark and Ross would both want new contracts under this new reality; with the full weight of the Rogers empire behind them. I don't think what Arjun Nimmala or Trey Yesavage may become in 3-4 years interests them.

Expect a big trade or two.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#463474) #
It's easy to say to expect a big trade or two but there are a lot of contenders with better young players to offer than the Jays and half the league will still be contending. I'm also not hearing a lot of big names available and what is there will be highly contested. I expect a smattering of mid-tier moves, mostly RPs.
John Northey - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#463475) #
For those scared of giving up a prospect (I know I am) just look to our closer for the last really big 'oh god don't trade him' prospect who was traded - Jeff Hoffman. For Colorado over 5 years he gave them negative WAR. Just 3.7 lifetime as is. BA had him as the #69 prospect pre-2015 (before the trade), climbing as high as #36 pre 2017. BA had Nate Pearson as high as #7 overall in 2020, Jose Silva #10 in 1994 is the only other Jays pitcher to make the top 10 BA list. Pearson (12.66 ERA this year) and Silva both were flops (negative WAR lifetime) by any measure. TISSTAAPP is something to keep in mind, but also every so often that prospect develops (see Noah Syndergaard) but even then they can blow up in a second (see Syndergaard again - gave the Mets 4 very solid years, 1 got him some Cy votes even but 2020 to now is 0.7 WAR for over $50 mil, now in rookie ball with the White Sox at age 32).
Petey Baseball - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#463476) #
That's my point, Marc. Half the league doesn't have the Jays financial might. The Jays might have only one or two (or none) serious competitors for Jacob DeGrom, simply because they would be able to take on the contract. They'll have tons of competition on the mid level guys.

Do the big swings on Ohtani, Soto, etc not hint us to anything? This team has taken some big swings and have yet to connect. The GM is on life support, the President is one the who hired him, so he has a vested interest in winning this year.

Make no mistake, if this team craps out in the playoffs or, even worse, collapses down the stretch, Atkins will be replaced. There are so many boxes checked in the "the Jays are going all in" category.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#463477) #
I partially agree. I think the front office will be aggressive at the trade deadline. There are lots of valid reasons to do this. And because they have substantial financial resources and the farm system is improved this year, they should have the wherewithal to make two or three strong moves for good (and maybe controllable) players like Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, or Edward Cabrera.

On the other hand, their MO has been to make judicious trades (like the Berrios and Donaldson trades), not rash ones. I don’t expect that to fundamentally change this summer. They will still be looking to improve the team beyond 2025.



scottt - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#463478) #
If they wanted to "go all in" they wouldn't have extended Guerrero.
To me, this is all very similar to the Othani flight path. 
The luxury tax is at 241M, the payroll is already at 255M.

The team doesn't have any glaring weak spots.
They do have several guys on their last options and they should probably focus on trading those guys for whatever they can get.

electric carrot - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#463479) #
I agree with Marc. I don't think there are going to be any big trades for the Jays. This does not feel like a year analogous to the 2015 season to me.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#463480) #
The systems better but the enviable prospects are Nimmala, K. Rojas, Yesavage, Stephens, Stanifer and J. King

Then a drop down to V. Arias, E. Duran, RJ Schreck and Watts-Brown... then a further drop to O. Martinez, McAdoo, etc...

Plus fringe MLBers like Jimenez, Loperfido and Clase.
Glevin - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#463481) #
I wouldn't be surprised if Jays made a big move but it will be in line with this front office's thinking. It will have to show some value and make sense.
hypobole - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#463482) #
Jimenez with his 1st of the year. Not just with the Jays, but including his 88 minor league PA's as well.
Magpie - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#463483) #
Heineman is certainly having a night.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, July 12 2025 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#463484) #
The walk was nice…
hypobole - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#463485) #
Huge AB coming up for Barger.  
Glevin - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#463486) #
Why is Lukes bunting?? He's been one of the Jays best hitters VS RHP all season.
Glevin - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#463487) #
Well, some rare bad D and 1-12 with RISP cost us this one.
christaylor - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 01:06 AM EDT (#463488) #
Their appreciation of value, which includes and knowing their constraints is 100%, which is why I've been on board with the FO for the last decade. I hope I'm wrong but the Santander signing was perhaps their biggest misstep, but an expensive change the narrative signing. Fingers crossed I'm wrong and he mashes when he gets back.

Michael - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 03:13 AM EDT (#463489) #
Santander has been a zero, but if his early play was injury related, and if he can come back healthy in the second half, then that may be the "big add" the jays do just with that health change (add Varsho back too). On the pitching side, maybe Manoah gets healthy and returns to his rookie form? That would likely be as good an add as they can do.

As I said weeks ago their number one need is a true ace, but those are near impossible to get, and the Jays don't have the prospects for that.

Lacking that, some bullpen help around the edges would be nice - and if anyone gets injured they might need to patch up that with trades - but otherwise I expect them to mostly stand pat. Maybe trade depth for prospects or RP or both.

scottt - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#463490) #
Santander is just a very streaky player. When he gets hot he can carry a team for a week or three.
I think you just put him in the lineup and see what happens, just not in the top until he deserves to be there.
Glevin - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#463491) #
Agree mostly with Michael although I do think a trade for a frontline starter is possible. Joe Ryan I could see them getting but also unlikely. I can also see a trade for someone like Severino who should cost basically nothing but has a lot of upside on a different team.

The cool thing about where the Jays are right now is that they are in first place with a fair bit having gone wrong and nothing really unsustainably good happening. Heineken obviously gets much worse but those aren't a lot of abs, Springer probably regresses some and maybe Barger gets figured out but Santander has averaged like a 120 WRC+ over the last 5 years and its 63. Varsho has been hurt, Giminez has been hurt, Vladdy should be better! Clement, Bo, Kirk all very reasonable numbers. On pitching side, Jays went most of the first half with no #4/5 starters. That should be better after break. No pitcher is really pitching much better than expected. Fans have every reason to believe in this team.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#463495) #
I think standing pat would send the wrong message to the players. The team has one of the best records in MLB. The front office should reward that by making a couple of moves to strengthen the team, as they did in 2021 when they added a quality controllable SP in Berrios. I think the front office will look to do that again, whether this is a controllable SP (Ryan or Cabrera type) or a controllable RP (Duran type).

At a minimum, I expect the team to add at least one quality leverage relief arm (controllable or not).
greenfrog - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#463496) #
The team's need for an ace has come up a number of times on this site. Is there an ace -- or at least a #1 starting pitcher -- available at the trade deadline?

Skenes is almost certainly unavailable, but inquiries should be made (and will no doubt be made) about him in the coming weeks.

Ryan arguably falls into the "#1 SP" category. He's also pitching very well right now. He's allowed a total of 3 ER over his last four starts (with 3 BB and 25 K).

Sale arguably fits this description as well, but he's now injured (fractured rib cage).

Is there anyone else who falls into the "ace or #1 SP" categories who could conceivably be acquired this month?

I say all this noting that Manoah could strengthen the rotation when he returns, as Michael pointed out.
Glevin - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#463497) #
Pirates aren't trading Skenes and if they were, other teams could offer much more attractive packages than Jays. Atlanta will likely not trade Sale because they want to compete next year and trading Sale makes that much harder. DeGrom similar but maybe a little more likely. Ryan is possible. Lopez would be if he were healthy. Maybe Washington moves Gore if they want to reset their timeline but I doubt it. Frontline starters are hard to get. It makes much more sense to try to sign Framber Valdez or Cease or Suarez or... Etc... Than to try to trade for someone of same caliber. If Jays think they can fix Gallen, then trading for him might make sense and give them a leg up on re-signing him but cost can't be that high for a struggling rental.
SK in NJ - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#463498) #
The Jays aren’t going to stand pat but anyone expecting a 2015 redux will probably be disappointed. This trade deadline will likely be no different than a typical Atkins deadline when the team is competitive. Multiple trades for areas of need. Whether we see another Berrios trade is the question, but that largely depends on what’s available and/or whether the Jays can compete with other offers.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#463499) #
Glevin,

You're basically saying the Jays cannot acquire an ace until free agency unless Joe Ryan is available or unless Gore becomes available or unless deGrom is moved... so no chance an ace is acquired unless it happens, ok. So wait for free agency instead when the season is over and you get the ace for next year. How does that help address the need/want for a "Non number 3/4" starter?

I get you're pessimistic about the chances of an ace being acquired... I don't believe there is a single person here that thinks "Jays can decide to trade for an ace and make it happen." We all understand that an ace or strong #2/1A will be very costly and hard to attain but as many have pointed out, the Blue Jays have prospects and young players they did not have before and yes while other teams have better prospects they may not have the same needs as Toronto or trajectory.

This FO may or may not want to be more aggressive than before considering this is the highest point of their 10+ years in terms of performance and popularity.

Also their owner has put someone else in charge who has already fired the three equivalent FO leaders in the past 3 months (Shanahan, Ukiri and argos boss).

Seattle has better prospects to trade than Toronto but they don't look like a real contender so less likely they give up more than Toronto even if they have better players.

How do you know the Jays don't plan to include someone like Barger in a deal? Probably a terrible idea but my point is we just don't know what the analytics and everything else this FO uses is saying.

There's also this teams larger payroll which many other teams don't have.

If the Phillies, Red Sox or Dodgers want to outspend the Jays I'm sure they could but there's still so many options and scenarios where they just won't. I'm probably the most ignorant on this site when it comes to prospect knowledge and values but how many teams can outbid the Jays right now if they wanted to include Yesavage and Nimmala and more in a deal? Barger, Nimmala and Barger is probably a package that could get you any player you wanted.

Like I said I'm not experienced or knowledgeable like others on prospects here but I feel it's short sighted to dismiss the Jays as unlikely or even unable to 1) acquire an ace and b) not be outbid by others
John Northey - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#463500) #
If there was a David Price type out there the Jays would be chasing him for sure, but there isn't AFAIK. Teams are doing far more to sign guys long term now so they don't get into the 'dump a rental' situation. Now, could there be a surprise out there? Sure. Lets hope something good happens.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#463501) #
Also if I were Shapiro I would be pooping bricks with the idea that my team is over performing and entering a hard part of the schedule coming out of the break with the Red Sox and NYY likely to improve their rosters. I would be expecting a losing streak or drop in the standings and I would do everything I could to avoid being the team that sneaks into a wild card spot with the poor performances this team has had in those playoff series. I would more than ever be willing to find a way to include prospects and young players I wouldn't ordinarily include in a deal so I could make my team stronger and continue the momentum.

If Bo won't resign I'd still look to deal him to a fringe team like Seattle for pitching. I'd load up some prospects to acquire a Joe Ryan type and then Insould stick to the "tier A-/B+" relievers like Bird rather than A+ guys like Clase.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#463502) #
Also I'd be expecting the NYY to add something like Kelly and Suarez and the Red Sox to add Cabrera and Naylor...so again I'd feel some urgency to add big if I was Shapiro.
metafour - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#463503) #
Why would Seattle want 3-months of Bo Bichette when they have Crawford and Polanco both producing at SS and 2B? And nobody who is looking to be competitive (which Seattle falls into) is going to trade away useful pitching, especially when in Seattle's case you can't even argue that they "need" Bichette.
Glevin - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#463504) #
Jays aren't getting an ace for two reasons 1) there aren't aces available 2) Other teams have way better young player/prospects to trade.

I was all aboard the trade Bo train until last month. Jays are in first place and a legitimate contender. The small prospect capital you'd get for Bo isn't worth messing with team chemistry and making the team (a little) worse.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#463506) #
"Why would Seattle want 3-months of Bo Bichette when they have Crawford and Polanco both producing at SS and 2B? And nobody who is looking to be competitive (which Seattle falls into) is going to trade away useful pitching, especially when in Seattle's case you can't even argue that they "need" Bichette."

Yeah I don't disagree with this at all. I through Bichette in because it came to mind spur of the post and Seattle isn't a serious contender and they always have lots of pitching. I didn't actually look to see if SS was a problem for them.
John Northey - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#463507) #
I think people need to stop thinking of Bo as an elite SS. He is 13th in fWAR among guys whose primary position is SS (qualified PA). Just below Xander Bogaerts, barely ahead of Otto Lopez (0.1 fWAR between them). What is funny is the poor year a few big names are having at SS - Willy Adames, Mookie Betts, Trevor Story are 1.5-1.7 fWAR so far (18-20th overall at SS).

Bo is a decent SS, but not elite. He can be elite and that is the hope in the 2nd half. His xwOBA is 377 vs wOBA of 332 suggesting he should be doing a lot better. Hopefully he does.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#463508) #
I love how confident you are that they 100% won't be getting an ace. Love it and I hope they're one of the teams that (almost every year) trades for an ace.

"It makes much more sense to try to sign Framber Valdez or Cease or Suarez or... Etc... Than to try to trade for someone of same caliber."

If you take your "100% not happening" trade logic and apply it to free agency then they have no chance to sign Valdez, Cease or Suarez. Why do you feel they can outspend teams in money but not outbid teams in trades?

If it's simply that teams aren't willing to trade an ace then lets look at the past ..


UPDATE
After looking at the deals of the past 4 years I was actually surprised to see that not many aces were actually traded at the deadline. I count Verlander, Scherzer (twice) and Berrios. That's it. So maybe Glevin is actually right.

In that case overpay for Joe Ryan (below ace).
hypobole - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#463509) #
2 PA's by Springer caught my attention last night. Clement on 2nd, no outs and Straw on 3rd, one out. Both times Springer grounded out to 3rd and neither runner advanced.

Has had issues the past few years of hitting too many grounders, so I checked. I brought up league average on grounders, but then I remembered LH hitters times to 1st are faster than RH, so I changed it and got a shock. Every year from 2021 to 2025, RHH have a higher wRC+ than LHH on ground balls, despite their slower times to 1st base. Huh?

As for George, it's not pretty. League average RHH wRC+ vs George wRC+ on grounders, year by year.

2025 44 / 15
2024 44 / -2
2023 39 / 40
2022 41 / 29
2021 36 / 5
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#463511) #
Reports suggesting that the Twins owners have a deal on the table to sell:
https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-sale-report-pohlads-have-a-deal-on-the-table


There was lots of reporting that the Twins needed to unload payroll this year but did they?

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/minnesota-twins-reportedly-looking-to-offload-contracts-to-balance-payroll-christian-vazquez-chris-paddack-willi-castro-trade-rumors-01jc11yzb6yt

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3200798

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2025/03/10/mlbpas-clark-bothered-by-twins-shrinking-payroll/


The Twins have gone 7-3 and are still 1 game under .500 and with 4 teams tied or ahead of them for the final wild card spot.

TWINS PAYROLL DETAILS
CARLOS CORREA 37 Million (signed to 2032 with vesting years for last 4 based on plate appearances)
BYRON BUXTON $15 million to 2028

This is where I would dig for arbitration players like Duran and Ryan and use a mix of prospects and salary relief to make it happen. Eat Correas salary and if the Twins are desperate enough then we can eat Buxton's salary too.
scottt - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#463513) #
I think it's the other way around. Dumping some of the guys who got you there could be a killer in the clubhouse.
Santander is coming back. Gimenez is coming back. Varsho is coming back. Where could they upgrade?

In 2021, Stripling started game 2. Zeuch started game 3. Tanner Roark started game 5.
Robbie Ray started the season on April 12.
Manoah debuted on May 27.
They still needed one more starter to push Stripling back into the pen.

This year Lauer has been very good. Scherzer is going to pitch if healthy. Nobody has options.
I suppose they could go with a 6 man rotation and/or using Lauer as long relief.
Francis and Manoah can be optioned if they are not needed once they are done their rehab.
Another 6th starter on his last option could probably be had for cheap.

It's pretty clear that Scherzer, Gausman, Bassitt and Berrios all want to start in the playoffs.

Clearly, they can use another relief arm or two.
scottt - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#463514) #
CF, SS and C are key defensive position and often offensive players have to be moved out of those spots as they age.
We just saw with Boston that it can be hard for teams to move veteran players out of their preferred position.


dalimon5 - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#463515) #
They could all start in the playoffs. Doesn't mean they all should.

Here are the top three players in rotations of the current AL playoff rosters:

HOU
Valdez
Brown
Javier

DET
Skubal
Olsen
Flaherty
Mize

TOR
Berrios
Gausman
Scherzer
Bassit

NYY
Fried
Rodon
Stroman

BOS
Crochet
Bello
Giolito

TB
McClanahan
Rasmussen
Pepiot
Baz

SEA
Gilbert
Castillo
Woo
Gilbert

I would not want to be in a 3 game or 1 game playoff with BOS, SEA or TB
greenfrog - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#463517) #
The more I think about it, the more I expect Toronto to be a serious bidder for Ryan (if Minnesota is a seller). His level of performance, age, and controllability make him a great match for the Blue Jays.

He’s a bit like Berrios in that he has a very consistent track record of being good. Ryan doesn’t have quite the same track record of durability across numerous seasons and high IP, but he has better BB and K rates than Berrios.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#463527) #
I think you guys are missing the point.

The difference between past trade deadlines and this one is that Atkins no longer has the runway to make safer deals. I don't see it as business as usual.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#463528) #
And, like the point I made before, the adds around the margins to raise the floor have not led to successful results. You guys act as if this is the way go; as if the Seattle series, the Minnesota series and the '21 missing the playoffs never happened Is there playoff success to back up these "value" based moves? No. Their most successful record (as I pointed out earlier) post deadline was the year they acquired Berrios for, wait for it, two of very best "prospects" they had in the system.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#463529) #
greenfrog, respectfully, do you really think Atkins cares about years of control? This isn't 2019, and Arash Madani isn't around to ask him the question where he will total up the years of control on the players they acquired. If they don't improve on their past shortcoming, he will be gone.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#463530) #
Somebody mentioned earlier that this does not feel like 2015. I couldn't disagree more. Anthopolous either knew he was done no matter what, or knew that if the team didn't wasn't a contender, he was done. Same with Beeston. That is a similar scenario to this year.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#463532) #
It was mentioned this week on the radio from Sportsnet insiders (I think BNS and Arden Zwelling) that Alex Anthopoulus has now gone on the record to say that only the Tulowitzki deal would've gotten done if he knew he was staying. Once he found out that Beeston was not being retained and he was passed over for the replacement role he then decided to trade for Price.
Glevin - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#463533) #
Jays can't get back their injured guys soon enough. These lineups are brutal especially when they decide to rest anyone.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#463534) #
Woof, team hasn't looked the same since the Yankees left town...
lexomatic - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#463535) #
<radio really made that Schneider situation confusing.
He got tossed, but was allowed to finish the at bat? Was made because he thought a ball was a HR but was called a foul, then hit a HR? I don't think k I've ever heard of that happening mid at-bat. What a mess.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#463536) #
Somebody needs to complain to Rogers or the Jays about Eric Smith. Love him as a radio host, knowledgeable basketball guy, but is so far over his head in baseball play by play. It really is embarrassing. Very difficult to follow the game.
That was an excellent display by John Schneider. Hopefully that gives the team a little life today.
lexomatic - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#463537) #
The way this game is going, you'd hint the records were reversed.
I think I'll check out now.

I'm very sick about hearing the name Antholopoulos
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#463538) #
John Schneider was tossed, not Davis.
Davis then homered on the next pitch.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#463539) #
"I'm very sick about hearing the name Antholopoulos"

Amen, you won't hear it again from me.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#463542) #
Petey, I don’t think Atkins cares about years of control the way he did at the time of the Aaron Sanchez trade (when he trumpeted “42 years” of player control acquired). But other things being equal, I do think he would prefer to acquire multiple years of control of a good player (like Ryan) if possible, setting the organization up for success in 2025 and beyond, as opposed to 2025 only. I think this is a situation where he may be able to have his cake and eat it too.
Michael - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#463567) #
Looking for top starting pitchers, as of right now there are 20 qualifying SP with a WHIP under 1.1 (15 of them ERA under 3, worst ERA Zach Littell TB with 3.56 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 116.1 IP.

Those from 14 teams with losing records (I.e., those that might be out of it):

DeGrom 0.91 WHIP/2.32 ERA/112.1 IP/113K (Texas 48-49 3 GB of last wildcard, 8.5 of division)

Ryan 0.91 WHIP/2.72 ERA/109.1 IP/121K (Min 47-49 4 GB of last wildcard, 11.5 of division)

Skenes 0.93 WHIP/2.01 ERA/121.0 IP/131K (Pit 39-58 13 GB of last wildcard, 18.5 of division)

Schwellenbach 0.97 WHIP/3.09 ERA/110.2 IP/108K (Atl 42-52 10 GB of last wildcard, 11.5 of division)

Kelly 1.05 WHIP/3.34 ERA/116.0 IP/113K (AZ 47-50 5 GB of last wildcard, 10.5 of division)

Lugo 1.08 WHIP/2.67 ERA/101.0 IP/88K (KC 47-50 4 GB of last wildcard, 12 of division)

If we round out with any of the qualified starters with ERA under 3.5 from losing teams we add:

Bubic 1.16 WHIP/2.48 ERA/108.2 IP/113K (KC 47-50 4GB of last wilcard, 12 of division)

Gore 1.20 WHIP/3.02 ERA/110.1 IP/138K (Wash 38-58 14 GB of last wildcard, 16.5 of division)

Kikuchi 1.37 WHIP/3.11 ERA/113.0 IP/115K (LAA 47-49 4 GB of last wildcard, 9 of division)

Keller 1.14 WHIP/3.48 ERA/119.0 IP/92K (Pit 39-58 13 GB of last wildcard, 18.5 of division)

For a reminder and comparison the Jays have only three qualified starters (as starters):

Gausman 1.16 WHIP/4.19 ERA/109.2 IP/104 K
Berrios 1.24 WHIP/3.75 ERA/115.1 IP/97 K
Bassitt 1.36 WHIP/4.16 ERA/106.0 IP/103 K

And non-qualified 3+ starters (only starter innings):

Lauer 1.24 WHIP/3.72 ERA/36.1 IP/41 K
Scherzer 1.26 WHIP/4.70 ERA/23.0 IP/24 K
Francis 1.53 WHIP/6.05 ERA/64.0 IP/54 K
Lucas 1.53 WHIP/7.41 ERA/17.0 IP/19 K

So of those 10 ace / near-ace pitchers on losing teams, which might be available?

Not possible, the player is too young and valuable:
Skenes - 23 year old untouchable (every prospect in the Jays org combined wouldn't be close to enough)
Schwellenbach - 25 year old untouchable

Unlikely arb eligible or about to be arb eligible guys that have cost control years past this:
Bubic - 27 year old, 3M this year, arb eligible next year, FA 2027
Gore - 26 year old, 2.9M this year, arb eligible next year, FA 2028
Ryan - 29 year old, 3M this year, arb eligible next year, FA 2028

Unlikely with no trade clause and multiple years:
DeGrom - 37 year old, 40M this year, 38M next, 37M next, 37M option (which may have triggered already?) for next + the no trade clause

Multiple signed years left still:
Kikuchi - 34 year old, 21.2M this year, 21.2M next 2 years too, then FA eligible in 2028
Keller - 29 year old, 15M this year, 16.9M 2026, 18.4M 2027, 20.4M 2028, FA 2029

Last two are most likely to be tradable by age/contract:
Lugo - 35 year old, 15M this year, player option for 15M next year
Kelly - 36 year old, 7M this year, FA 2026

So other than Kelly who is FA this offseason and hence might be tradable, and Lugo that people think will opt out and not take the option as he's underpaid at 15M, I'm not sure the other guys are really available (and some of these teams 4/5 games back of wildcard might win a couple of games or still think they are in it).
John Northey - Sunday, July 13 2025 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#463577) #
While a #1 starter is the obvious way to seriously upgrade, it is also damn hard to get. If the Twins are realistic they are out of it and need to plan for the long term - Detroit, KC, and Cleveland all have solid parts for the future so it'll be a tough division going forward. Joe Ryan won't be there long - just this year, 26, and 27 thus his value will go down for them unless they think he'll sign a 'home team discount' which I seriously doubt (California born, so doubt Minnesota has any hold on his heart).

For relief help, Griffin Jax of the Twins is damn tempting (31.1% K rate, 6.8% BB rate, 97.2 fastball, 4 years in a row of being a solid reliever at age 30, not a free agent until after 2027, same as Ryan). Wonder if the Twins would do a 2 for prospects deal? Solidify the rotation and get a solid setup guy/backup closer for a few years. Correa is having a bad year and owed a LOT ($100 mil for next 3 years, plus what's left of his $37 mil this year) so taking him on would slash the cost in a trade for anyone else. Now, Correa had a 152 OPS+ last year so his bat could recover from its current 88 OPS+ but after a 94 in '23 one has to wonder if that 152 wasn't a dead cat bounce. If I was the Twins I'd be petrified about that (they can't afford that big of a dead contract). No idea how the Jays would handle it for 2025 (Bo, Correa both at SS, Gimenez at 2B, Clement at 3B. Correa's DRS is -8 (yikes) this year but +1 for OOA so FG has him at a net 0 for fielding. Bo for comparison is -6 DRS, -3 OAA, -2 net value. Wonder if either could handle 3B or LF. It'd be a complicated situation.

I'm thinking 'closer' is the Jays priority though with Hoffman being hot and cold, plus Garcia being a 'who knows' with his injuries lately. In which case Emmanuel Clase becomes damn tempting. Also Kyle Finnegan of Washington (but his xFIP is 4.28 so I'd be careful there). David Bednar of Pittsburgh we've talked about before and is still damn nice (34.1% K rate, 7.1% BB rate).

It will be interesting, and I wouldn't be shocked if a big deal happens between now and Friday (probably post-ASG and pre-Friday).
Petey Baseball - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#463624) #
The argument I've tried to make John, is that I believe the cost of a #1 pitcher addition in a couple weeks (to which DeGrom is the only one talked about so far) will be predominately be money, which the Blue Jays have increasingly been willing to spend. That makes it more likely to me they are going to swing bigger than a mid-rotation guy to strengthen their odds of going further this year.

If the cost of getting Brad Keller or another mid-rotation guy is going to put a dent in prospect capital, or a complete emptying of the cupboard (which is going to be the price for Ryan if he is dealt, and I doubt the Twins are interested in dealing him) then why not spend the extra cash to get a guy who you know is your #1? If I'm Ross Atkins, and I know that the team I've been the GM of for almost a decade hasn't won a playoff game, and another crap out is my ticket out of town, I'm not trading my best prospects for Brad Keller.
Petey Baseball - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#463626) #
It's also clear the team not only needs an ace, but someone else to close games if they are serious about winning a series vs Detroit, Houston, or Boston (who are increasingly looking like the team that will challenge for the division, especially since they are well positioned to add at the deadline).

I would see the Twins as a match only if they were willing to part with Jhoan Duran. That would almost certainly cost them either Nimmala or Yesavage.

dalimon5 - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#463631) #
As pointed out the Jays could likely wipe out the cost of any prospects to be included if they simply take Correa's awful contract for a team wanting to lower payroll.
Petey Baseball - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#463632) #
greenfrog, I agree to a certain extent. I just view 2025 as a particularly unique situation. In the years '16-23 the Jays still behaved as a middle market in a lot of ways, and yes, in those circumstances their oxygen and energy would have gone to acquiring a Joe Ryan, a Brad Keller or someone with more control.

In 2025, post Ohtani, post Soto, post Roki Sasaki, post Vlad extension, post playoff flameouts, post terrible '24 season, etc, I would think has changed the landscape for the front office. Ed Rogers now has full control of the the team, and has stated his goal is to win championships in sports.

I don't think they value contractual control as much as trying to win a World Series every year.
Petey Baseball - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#463637) #
That is a long way of saying that, of course more years of control is ideal, but if it comes down to just adding another 33.5 million to the payroll to bring them a major piece to a World Series in 2025 (and all the extra tickets and people in the refurbished Rogers Centre, extra Sportsnet playoff games, etc that would bring), I think they are swinging big and I hope they do. Something has to justify those Sportsnet+ price hikes right?
greenfrog - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#463640) #
The thing is, if you acquire deGrom, you’re getting a pitcher who is always a pitch away from another long IL stint. Someone like Ryan is probably a lot more likely to stay healthy and deliver value this season and beyond.

Also, Ryan has been just as effective as deGrom in 2025. He actually has better K and BB rates than deGrom this year.
Petey Baseball - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#463643) #
It's true. Ryan has had a very, very, very good first half. But he's got enough innings under his belt where you'd not put him as an ace according to his career. He's a strong #3 or a decent #2.

DeGrom has been injury prone his entire career. I don't think that should be an impediment to acquiring someone of his caliber, though. If he was a shell of his former self, or even 3/4 of what he was (or is this season, again) he's probably not worth it. All the peripherals and the shallow stats show he's the same guy now who was arguably the best pitcher in baseball for a number of years.

It may be moot. The Rangers played a little better coming into the break, and may try to take one more crack at contention.
Petey Baseball - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#463644) #
To further that point, I look to how the team operated this off-season to predict this trade deadline. The team spent a ton of cash and took a ton of risk, and evidence points to the fact they wanted to spend even more than they did. Hoffman had arm issues, they still paid him. Santander has had basically had one very good season, they still paid him. Max Scherzer had barely pitched in two seasons, they still gave him a pretty hefty one year contract. There were credible rumors they still wanted to add Alonso after all that, but he was intent on returning to New York. Even the Giminez trade with Cleveland was largely about money.

In all those cases where they did sign (especially Scherzer) there were cheaper, safer, more flexible options available. In my opinion, this is definitely a shift from past years, and is reflective of the new reality of the franchise and also partly because of Atkins' job status.
Gerry - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#463652) #
RIP Jim Clancy, one of the best starters back in the day.
mathesond - Monday, July 14 2025 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#463654) #
Oh man. He was such a workhorse for those early teams.
soupman - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 04:58 AM EDT (#463689) #
Is Ohtani injury prone? He’s been more hurt with more issues than DeGrom ever was. DeGrom has basically only ever had throwing arm issues and the shoulder probably was a result of playing through elbow pain. He’s had the elbow fixed three times and the previous two times his return from surgery gave him five and six years of clean health. Where does the “injury prone” narrative come from?
adrianveidt - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 06:17 AM EDT (#463690) #
I'm guessing there have been fewer and fewer voices calling for firing the front office and Schneider?
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#463692) #
deGrom's annual IP totals since 2019 (all as a SP):

68.0
92.0
64.1
30.1
10.2
112.1

Where does the “injury prone” narrative come from?

I can't imagine where!
hypobole - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#463696) #
They are a bit jumbled, but look like Jim Clancy season totals.
soupman - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#463698) #
“Since 2019”

He was fully healthy and led the Mets in starts in 2020. I seem to remember something limiting every pitchers innings that year.

2021 was the year he was on pace to set every record imaginable before his elbow issues set in. He pitched through the elbow issue until going under the knife in 2023. Now he’s back and healthy and can still reach 100
hypobole - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#463705) #
You people are like my family and that's not a compliment. :)

Was hoping someone would catch my attempt at humour with the Jim Clancy comment.

Jim Clancy season totals using deGrom's totals.

Year 1
Spring 68 IP
Summer 92 IP
Fall 30.1 IP

Year 2
Spring 64.1 IP
Summer 112.1 IP
Fall 10.2 IP

scottt - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#463719) #
The odds of the season ending just a few weeks after the trade deadline are rather low.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#463721) #
In Colorado, the season ended just a few weeks after it started.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 15 2025 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#463723) #
Ouch hypobole. Mean, but accurate. April 1st the Rockies were at 0.0% odds already, the White Sox at 0.1%, Marlins 1.6%.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#463734) #
Do you remember Dan Serafini. He pitched part of seven seasons in the major leagues.

Today I learned that he was just found guilty of murdering his father in law and of attempting to murder his mother in law.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 16 2025 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#463742) #
Read that as well, Gerry.  Just like in life, there have been some ugly people in the game. 
On a more positive note, Nate Eovaldi probably should have made the All-star team, but didn't. He had a $100 K bonus in his contract for being an All-star. Rangers paid the $100 K bonus anyway.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, July 17 2025 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#463761) #
Varsho is joining Rookie ball today, along with Paxton Schultz. Easton Lucas, Manoah, Kasevich, and Schreck are also rehabbing in Rookie ball games.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, July 17 2025 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#463766) #
Still nothing on Santander. You wonder if the Jays aren't releasing information as a smokescreen to keep teams from gouging them at the deadline. We will wait and see.
scottt - Saturday, July 19 2025 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#463874) #
It's great to have all the vets rehabbing together.
Toronto at … Sacramento?, July 11-13 | 113 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.