Superman has retired. Not Kent, Pillar. Thanks for the memories, Kevin. Quite the career for a guy the Jays drafted 979th and signed for $1 K.

that's a helpful article for sure. well worth reading.


piggy-backing on the end of the last thread, about platooning stuff.

Looking at plausible platoon lineups using this year's stats only:

vRHP

1. DH Springer 226pa, 141wrc+
2. RF Barger 186pa, 128wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 283pa, 126wrc+
4. C Alejandro 203pa, 123wrc+
5. SS Bichette 296pa, 111wrc+
6. CF Varsho 81pa, 144wrc+
7. LF Lukes 163pa, 110wrc+
8. 2B Gimenez 164pa, 97wrc+
9. 3B Clement 201pa, 69wrc+

B. UT Santander 159pa, 69wrc+
B. OF Straw 88pa, 59wrc+
B. IF Schneider 18pa, 59wrc+
B. C Heineman 54pa, 110wrc+

X. UT Clase 81pa, 79wrc+
X. OF Roden 98pa, 69wrc+
X. IF Wagner 64pa, 46wrc+
X. C Sanchez 10pa, -56wrc+


vLHP

1. DH Springer 85pa, 136wrc+
2. 2B Clement 97pa, 211wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 85pa, 163wrc+
4. C Alejandro 76pa, 112wrc+
5. LF Schneider 49pa, 123wrc+
6. SS Bichette 83pa, 87wrc+
7. CF Straw 76pa, 87wrc+
8. 3B Barger 38pa, 84wrc+
9. RF Lukes 16pa, 76wrc+

B. UT Santander 50pa, 47wrc+
B. OF Varsho 19pa, -60wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 66pa, 22wrc+
B. C Heineman 31pa, 221wrc+

X. UT Clase 31pa, 45wrc+
X. OF Roden 13pa, 42wrc+
X. IF Wagner 10pa, 103wrc+
X. C Sanchez 1pa, 764wrc+




using 2 years of stats:

vRHP

1. DH Springer 695pa, 114wrc+
2. LF Lukes 240pa, 121wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 841pa, 151wrc+
4. RF Santander 644pa, 115wrc+
5. C Alejandro 489pa, 105wrc+
6. 3B Barger 374pa, 103wrc+
7. SS Bichette 570pa, 98wrc+
8. CF Varsho 490pa, 98wrc+
9. 2B Gimenez 625pa, 92wrc+

B. UT Wagner 128pa, 97wrc+
B. OF Straw 91pa, 60wrc+
B. IF Clement 508pa, 90wrc+
B. C Heineman 62pa, 97wrc+

X. UT Schneider 334pa, 91wrc+
X. OF Clase 119pa, 87wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 149pa, 86wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 96pa, 54wrc+

X. UT Loperfido 212pa, 78wrc+
X. OF Roden 98pa, 69wrc+
X. IF Stefanic 100pa, 51wrc+
X. C Sanchez 75pa, 15wrc+


vLHP

1. DH Springer 230pa, 96wrc+
2. 2B Clement 242pa, 127wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 224pa, 165wrc+
4. RF Santander 230pa, 105wrc+
5. C Alejandro 176pa, 103wrc+
6. CF Varsho 123pa, 103wrc+
7. LF Straw 77pa, 85wrc+
8. 3B Wagner 32pa, 71wrc+
9. SS Bichette 145pa, 52wrc+

B. UT Barger 75pa, 50wrc+
B. OF Lukes 30pa, 69wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 238pa, 53wrc+
B. C Heineman 39pa, 193wrc+

X. UT Schneider 187pa, 68wrc+
X. OF Clase 59pa, 53wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 63pa, 129wrc+
X. C Bethancourt 51pa, 88wrc+

X. UT Loperfido 50pa, 54wrc+
X. OF Roden 13pa, 42wrc+
X. IF Stefanic 49pa, 78wrc+
X. C Sanchez 32pa, 5wrc+

I’ll be pretty happy if the Blue Jays win one of the next two games (obviously two wins would be superb). Just keep playing good competitive baseball and good things will happen.

What a start!!!

they're beginning to believe.

feel free to post Yankees Reddit updates, folks.

Boone almost got tossed over a 4th ball call that was an actual ball.

The Yankees start a series against the Mets on Friday with Stroman on the mount.
I wouldn't mind if their pen is in a rough shape getting there.

Davis Schneider being good again would be a great development.

BP!

Bellinger keeps trying to bun to third. They must have been told that Wagner isn't a great fielder.

Gimenez trying to make up for last two months in one game.

The linked piece makes me favor a back end right handed SP who can show command and can ramp up velocity during short max effort bullpens.

Trade deadlines are weird. I turned off the Jays and Yankees thinking not is it 5-0 yet but thinking, "How is it 7-0 now?"

I don't think he's trying too hard, but he's doing fine.
Couple of bloop doubles for another run.
Great way to add.

Warren must be gassed by now.

well it's a game again.

think i preferred the blowout tho.

I was thinking that Berrios hadn't looked sharp all evening.
Mostly trying to stay away from using the fastball in the strikezone, but he wasn't reaching the glove side corner with the slurve.
Too many back to back pitches also.

We don’t care about run differential. Just win, baby.

phew that's a big out.

jays better put their big boy pants on cuz the yanks are pissed off and won't stop coming.

Best to aggressively secure some insurance runs now before this game unravels.

Yikes! It might be good to get some relief pitching... I just tuned back in after a long walk.

Really did not like that leadoff walk to Chisholm T7 in a one-run game. Let's see if Yariel can bob and weave his way through the next few hitters. (Goldschmidt strikeout: good start.)

Big moment to turn a double play. Nicely done fellas.

Meaningful baseball! Fun and oh so tense.

big boy pants on. big double play. huge 2nd homerun for Davis.

and if Davis finds his power again...he's a player.

Double play to end T7 and Davis Schneider opposite-field home run B7 to extend the lead? I’ll take it!

Tip o' the cap to uglyone who never stopped believing in Schneider.

Dreadful mistake to walk Rice. Also a mistake to pitch to Judge.

Why pitch to Judge ever?? Sigh.

Judge looks too comfortable in the box. Why not pitch at his legs?

I am not entirely joking.

The issue was walking Rice.

welcome back, Yimi!

I think Yimi is done. It’s a mistake to leave him in.

I guess Ned Flanders is going to have to hit homer #3 in the bottom of the ninth.

Is Springer having the best season of his career? lmao.

The Summer of George isn’t just about dingers. That run was all because of his legs.

Exciting stuff. Now can Hoffman close it out?

The manager talked about Springer being an OP, not a DH.

Straw-man ... a good get.

1st place!

First place.

Had 'em all the way.

And Bassit AT HOME going tomorrow.

Let’s go!

Incredible. This team just knows how to win.

Team has looked different from day 1 tbh.

Can't help but feel that re-upping Vladdy had a huge impact on the team from top to bottom.

The last couple years have been really rough and just a steady sinking feeling into despair. But something was different from the first crack of the bat this spring.

The 2022-24 Jays lose this game. There's a different feel with this team.

Got one more of these to go yet

This year's team has depth and experience.

Brian Swane
@BrianSwane
The last time the Toronto Blue Jays had at least a share of first place in the AL East later than April:
September 6, 2016

Long may they reign!

I'll just put it out there - i don't consider any of our prospects untouchable.

George Springer…Bringer of Reign!

Send our five best prospects to Pittsburgh for Skenes. Then start planning the parade.

"I'll just put it out there - i don't consider any of our prospects untouchable."


The Jays being deeper in pitching prospects certainly makes it easier to rationalize making a big trade. Pitching prospects have way too high of a bust/injury rate to fall in love with them. Nimmala is the only player I'd be reluctant to trade. Otherwise, it really depends on the player coming back.

"And how on earth did we put up with Howard Cosell doing baseball. You young 'uns have no idea how insufferable he could get."

To be honest, I had to go take a look at 'Down Goes Frazier' once I heard Howard's voice in the Parker link.

Honestly, teams look for pitching in trades. Look for Toronto to load up at the draft in 11 days even without a second round pick. They've been linked to prep shortstops but I think they'll go Witherspoon in the 1st (and maybe his twin brother, too, in the 3rd).

No one is untouchable, but to trade Yesavage or Nimmala I'd want a Cy Young contender or MVP candidate. Orelvis, Tiedemann, Bloss, etc. I'd be fine with trading for strong help (closer, strong regular, #2/3 starter), everyone else for whatever. I see Orelvis, Bloss, Macko, any of the AAA OFers (including MLers Schneider & Wagner) as trade bait. Now, how much value any of those have is debatable - Orelvis might still have that top 100 shine on him despite a poor season/PED situation. Tiedemann despite injuries might still have some value too.

Nobody should ever be untradable but it's all about return. Are you getting a difference maker? Are you getting someone under contract longer term? Want to give talent to get Joe Ryan or Edward Cabrera? Sure. But you need to compete long-term which means you need a maintain a deep system both to help you graduate new talent and to give you more trade chips down the road.

The Dodgers were making a pretty huge deal out of Clayton Kershaw going after career strikeout 3,000 last night, and I thought to myself - is this really such a huge deal?

Yes. Yes it is. He's just the 20th pitcher to get there, just the fourth southpaw. There are 28 guys with 500 HRs, 33 with 3,000 Hits. When I was a little wee boy, back in the previous millennium, there was exactly one man with 3,000 strikeouts.

So well done, Clayton.

That would replace Biggio nicely in the top left corner...

Yes, an impressive accomplishment. It also makes you realize how incredible Nolan Ryan, the all-time strikeouts leader, was. He struck out 5714 batters, almost a thousand more than the second-place pitcher, Randy Johnson, who amassed 4875 strikeouts.

Anyone want to guess where Scherzer ranks on the career strikeouts leaderboard?

Scherzer is 11th at 3419.
Verlander is 10th at 3471.
Nolan Ryan is first with 5714.
Curt Schilling is 17th with 3116.
Zack Greinke stalled at 2979.
Roy Halladay tapped out at 2117.

Sorry gf, I posted the ones that seemed the most relevant to me.

Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMatheson
·
10h
Davis Schneider remembered details of his HR off Will Warren in AA. I asked how:

“I have a very fine memory of kind of everything … Barger had a homer against him in AA, too. Inside cutter out to dead-centre in Somerset … I’m just a baseball savant, so I know a lot of stuff.”

There was an interview last week where it was said that he can remember the count and exact pitch sequence for every AB that he hit a HR in. As I said last night, dude just looks hitterish at the plate lately. It's a shame they gave all those PAs to Clase instead.

But Roy had season where he just didn't care about Ks. It was obvious when you watched him pitch.

Including him on this list... seems odd.

Davis earned not being in the lineup for years.

Yeah my favourite Halladay memory was when he was pitching to contact pretty regularly at 94 MPH and posting 8 and 9 IP starts on the regular. He ran into trouble with bases loaded against the Twins. All of a sudden instead of Cutter sinker cutter sinker fastball cutter sequence which was his thing he transformed to strike out the side (Hunter, Mauer, Morneau) with 97-98 MPH fastballs, dominant curveballs and change up. Pretty insane to realize he was pitching throttled the entire time to dominate line ups with complete games.

One more thought. Johnson and Ryan and those elite talent types are "throwers" with command who mastered the skill that nobody else had. Halladay was that guy until he wasn't and he had to rebuild from scratch into the mold of "pitcher" with command who mastered the art. More in line with Greg Maddux.

On trade deadline '25:

I'm going to go against the grain and offer this up;

Trade "sell high prospects" like Nimmala and Yesavage for better "core" returns

Keep "sell low prospects" like Tiedemann and Bloss who will get you "rentals"

Personally I see the best value path as resigning Bo, trading Nimmala (for a core piece) and keeping Yesavage and Tiedemann.

There's enough depth in the system at SS to get by without Nimamala if it is bringing back a core piece.

Now if you're talking about a franchise player in the return like Skenes (yes very unlikely) then you pull a AA and tell the other team to write down the return needed.

Nimmala is in A+ ball and hasn't hit at all over the past month. He isn't likely to headline a trade for a "core piece". Any team trading a core piece is going to want a top prospect that is closer to the majors than that (and with much less risk).

Agreed in part dalimon5 - to get a franchise player you need to give up a TON.  See any big acquisition over the years.  Prospects are always suspects until they make it, so if you can get a key piece for years then sure, go for it. But under no conditions give up a Yesavage or Nimmala for a rental or a 'meh' guy.  For example, when the Jays gave up Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza (ugh).  In '92 they gave up Jeff Kent for David Cone (a rental, but boy was he big), in '15 they gave up Boyd (worth over 11 WAR since) & 2 others for Price (a rental).  Those rentals were clearly needed at the time and were key to pushing the team over the top towards a deep playoff run but in both cases we followed up after 1 more playoff year with years of 'ugh'.

my favourite Halladay memory was when he was pitching to contact pretty regularly at 94 MPH and posting 8 and 9 IP starts on the regular.

The way I remember that period - roughly 2006-2007 - is that he was generally working at about 89-90 mph most of the time, and only dialling it up to 94-95 late if he needed it. I almost had the impression that he was preparing himself for the future, learning how he could get hitters out after he lost his fastball. Skill once mastered, he went back to throwing 94-95 all the time in his last couple of years here.

All of Schneider Wagner Roden Clase earned their demotions (as did Santander and Gimenez). Don't know why Clase, the youngest of them by years, gets all the hate. Especially since he actually produced for good stretch there when all these others guys were terrible, and had some big clutch HR and SBs in there too. He's young, talented, and out of options next year so they wanted to take a look at him at a point where they really needed some help, and he helped for a good bit there. He still has better numbers on the year than Roden Wagner Santander and it's only very recently that Schneider and Gimenez started hitting to move on past him. Just weird to keep complaining about this kid getting a reasonably productive 100pa.

Jays minor league system is getting better but it's still probably in the 15-20 range overall.

There are really no hitting prospects of any intrigue beyond 2-3 players. And no, Orelvis does not have much (if any) trade vakue beyond maybe getting you a middle reliever. There's a bunch of intriguing, but unproven, arms but I wouldnt deal Yesavage, Stanifer or Rojas in anyrhing outside of an established, above-average player.

And the Low-A, Rookie and DSL leagues have very, very few intriguing prospects for the future (to fill in gaps created by any trades).

Metafour that's a strong statement - plenty of sellers at the deadline would prefer a better young prospect over an mlb ready one imo. Nimmala's production has dropped down from star prospect level over the last month sure, but he's still an easy top-100 prospect and likely top-50, and looks like he can stick at a premium position, with power.

Don't know why Clase, the youngest of them by years, gets all the hate.

It's not fair, I suppose, but Clase is a young player with impressive tools, but one who doesn't really know how to play baseball, who doesn't have particularly good baseball instincts. Which can be irritating to see. It sometimes felt to me that Schneider was often asking him to bunt, not because of the game situation but because it was Clase - "you're batting ninth, you're supposed to know how to do this."

"Davis earned not being in the lineup for years."

The last few years did seem to stretch on forever but....Schneider only ever had one bad year!



2022 (23): MLB 0pa, ---wrc+ / AAA 75pa, 121wrc+ / AA 190pa, 131wrc+ / A+ 189pa, 129wrc+
2023 (24): MLB 141pa, 174wrc+ / AAA 392pa, 145wrc+
2024 (25): MLB 454pa, 79wrc+
2025 (26): MLB 71pa, 133wrc+ / AAA 160pa, 104wrc+


And even that one bad year last year actually started off with a full two months of him posting a fantastic 134wrc+, before utterly falling apart the rest of the way.

2024 APR-MAY: 181pa, 134wrc+
2024 JUN-SEP: 273pa, 43wrc+


I've kept trying to convince myself that his unbelievably terrible end to 2024 was every bit as fluky as his unbelievably terrific end to 2023, and that he'd eventually end up in the middle somewhere.

Schneider’s value may edge upwards if an ABS or challenge system is implemented at the MLB level, allowing his keen eye at the plate to be reflected more accurately in his OBP.

MLB pipeline released the latest to 100 prospects and Nimmala is #50 and Yesavage #57.

Tiedemann is unranked which is bonkers to me when someone like Andrew Painter is still #10 overall. Tiedemann pitched his last year throttled with injury. His numbers before that were quite impressive and his stuff is best in the org. I still think the top 3 pitchers in the next 24 months after the dust settles will be Tiedemann, Yesavage, Manoah.

yeah Magpie that can be frustrating, but usually fans actually love the toolsy guys despite them being unrefined - like Barger last year, who was a complete mess at the plate and in the field, didn't look like he knew anything about baseball at all.

anyways i don't want to belabour it anymore - I was fine with Clase getting the look that he did, and I'm fine with him going down. We have a whole lotta quality borderline guys this year and I'm happy to see them sorting through them, giving them all legit chances, and playing or demoting them when they deserve it. Not many teams have this kind of depth of borderline MLB options, and I'm glad to see us taking full advantage of it.

I just looked at Alejandro Kirk’s Baseball Savant page. How often do you see this combination:

Baserunning Run Value: 1st percentile

Fielding Run Value: 100th percentile

Because that is who Kirk is in 2025. He might be the first player in MLB history to achieve that statistical pairing.

For guys with 50+ PA we have 3 with negative fWAR value - Santander (-0.8), Wagner (-0.3) and Clase (-0.2). I think that explains the 'hate' towards him. He has negative value in batting and defense with +0.3 value in baserunning. Roden, despite his nightmarish start, is a net positive at 0.1 (-0.3 baserunning, -4.7 bat, +2.4 fielding - no idea how that works out to a positive, but it does). Clase has 1 more PA than Roden (112 vs 111).

Going from the start of June to now we see Clase has a 45 wRC+ in that time, Straw a 24, Lukes 65, and Bo 88. Everyone else is 101 or better who has 20+ PA (Gimenez 101, rest 116+). So it was Clase at 45 or Roden at 116 wRC+ with Roden playing far better defense in June, yet Clase kept getting chances. FYI: Schneider from June 1st to now has a 168 wRC+ and has earned more playing time.

On a different note, I was reminded today that I was originally excited about Clement as one of those borderline useful guys when we got him two years ago....based entirely on his offensive statistics. I had no idea he was actually great defensively (him being a '2B' actually made me think he was probably weak defensively). If i had known he was a wizard defensively i'd have been way more bullish on him, and i was pretty bullish just on his bat already.

But it's going to be very interesting if Schneider and Wagner keep hitting. Especially since neither of them has any platoon splits to worry about.

Schneider could easily steal Lukes' starting job away even if Lukes keeps hitting well like he has. And since he has no platoon issues, Schneider starting would mean Straw goes into his proper pure defensive OF 13th man role, not a guy getting regular PAs.

Wagner's bar is tougher, just because Clement and Gimenez are so much better defensively. But if he starts hitting as well as he did last year again, then it's going to be hard not giving him regular playing time.

And this is all before even considering what happens when Santander comes back.

"Schneider’s value may edge upwards if an ABS or challenge system is implemented at the MLB level, allowing his keen eye at the plate to be reflected more accurately in his OBP."

where i can find the pretty stats/graphs which show which players have been most victimized by strike zones?

By the way, compared to other winning teams from the past few years:

Included players in updated top 100:

SEA - 8 players (insane)
PHI - 6 players (shocking excellent)
MIL - 6 players (excellent)
LAD - 5 players (insane)

TB - 3 players (good)
ARZ - 3 players (good)

TOR - 2 players
SD - 2 players
NYY - 1 player
BAL - 1 player
HOU - 1 player (barely)
TEX - 1 player
ATL - 1 player

SEA, LAD and MIL are godly. PHI shocked me.

"Going from the start of June to now we see Clase has a 45 wRC+ in that time, Straw a 24, Lukes 65, and Bo 88. Everyone else is 101 or better who has 20+ PA (Gimenez 101, rest 116+). So it was Clase at 45 or Roden at 116 wRC+ with Roden playing far better defense in June, yet Clase kept getting chances. FYI: Schneider from June 1st to now has a 168 wRC+ and has earned more playing time."

don't really by the "recent hotness/coldness" thing tbh.

if we look at the last 2 weeks instead of the last month:

Roden 8pa 131wrc+
Clase 25pa 96
Barger 47pa 92
Lukes 36pa 75
Bichette 48pa 75
Straw 37pa 33
Heineman 15pa 12


anyways, i've had my say on it and i'll stop now.

Lots of great ideas in this thread for the Sportsnet and other writers who lurk here trawling for things to write about.

Lots of great ideas in this thread for the Sportsnet and other writers who lurk here trawling for things to write about.

Any team that is trading a "core piece" is going to have almost every playoff contending team interested in that player. And several of those teams have higher-ranked prospects than Nimmala, who are also more MLB ready, and therefore less volatile.

I guess it depends on what you consider to be a "core piece". Dalimon's post (which is what I was responding to) differentiated rental players from core pieces, so I'm assuming that we are talking about difference-maker players who have 1.5 years of control or more remaining. Players of that calibre who are also not rentals don't typically get traded for a package centred on a struggling High-A hitter, regardless of what that hitter's "upside" is. Barring a strong turnaround, Nimmala is going to start next season back in A+. Hard to imagine that some other playoff team doesn't have a Top 30-50 prospect in AA or AAA who also isn't struggling considerably.

And note that I'm not suggesting that other teams wouldn't be interested in Nimmala. I'm only commenting on his viability as a headlining piece for a "core player".

Keep in mind that the new playoff format and subsequent draft-lottery (which disincentivizes tanking) has also made it more enticing for teams that are sellers at the trade deadline to look for faster turnarounds.

I just noticed that Clase was in Buffalo's lineup last night, while Roden hasn't played yet since being sent down near a week ago.

Was Roden banged up maybe?

D.Schneider has so far been such an extreme FEAST or FAMINE player that it's very hard to know what he is - but J.Schneider seems to have decided to make both their lives simple and give him one job - mash lefties. Despite the fact that D.Schneider was as helpless as a little kitten against them last year. Of his 71 PApps so far, 50 have been against LHP, which is a lot.

This is an unusual team in some ways. I have no idea, for example, which three guys are going to be starting in the outfield tonight and where they will be lining up. Not today, and not ever! This is the new normal around here. Once Varsho comes back, it will get a little more predictable. Until then, every day's lineup is the Unfolding of a Mystery.

Vs. RHP:

C Kirk
1B Guerrero
2B Gimenez
3B Barger
SS Bichette
LF Lukes
CF Varsho
RF Santander
DH Springer

Vs. LHP:

C Heineman
1B Guerrero
2B Schneider
3B Clement
SS Bichette
LF Springer
CF Straw
RF Santander
DH Kirk

These exercises are always pointless because of injuries and days off, but that's how I imagine things going when the team is at full strength. I don't actually expect Schneider at 2B or Straw in CF, but perhaps one of Varsho/Gimenez would get their day off each time the team faces a lefty and pieces would be moved around accordingly. I don't really see a spot for Wagner should the team ever be at full strength.

Roden was only activated yesterday by Buffalo. It's possible the tram let him have a few days to clear his head or he took a quick trip to the hitting lap in Florida.

Painter is on the top prospect list because he's back pitching and his stuff has rebounded. Tiedemann is still hurt and we have no idea what his stuff will look like (see Maroudis, Barriera and McElvain for cautionary tales). Plus he had some reliever risk prior to getting hurt.

Magpie owes me 3 cuttlefish if this lineup prediction for tonight’s game is correct:

DH Springer
RF Barger
1B Guerrero
SS Bichette
C Kirk
LF Schneider
2B Giménez
CF Straw
3B Wagner

A Nimmala centered package (with little more added) would be for a core player that is not a franchise player. A good player with minimum 2026 under control who the FO can try to extend like they did with Berrios. Cabrera or Alcantara are two examples. You can bet your buttocks that Miami would be interested in a deal like that and I would argue Nimmala would be more than enough on his own for either of those two pitchers. If not you can easily "back fill" (as writers like to say now) to put in lower prospects to fill out a package.

For a franchise player under control...I'm thinking someone like Jose Ramirez, you would have to have Nimmala, Yesavage and some lottery players to get it done.

For a franchise player with an ERA under 2.00 who projects to get better (Skenes), you would have to trade Nimmala, Yesavage, Manoah, Barger and probably Clement...plus whatever else their FO felt like requesting.

I don't think Ramirez or Skenes are untouchable. The Guardians won't make the playoffs this year and the Pirates won't make the playoffs in the next 2 years minimum. I don't think they let Skenes leave with less than 1 year of control left with a watered down return when they could very easily double or triple his value in WAR by trading him in 2025 or 2026. His value to a contending team is far higher than to a rebuilding team with a long runway to take off.

Ramirez can't be traded without his permission but man would he be nice to have.

I've already mentioned this twice, once in the Cleveland thread and once in the Red Sox thread, but you still haven't responded to my cuttlefish bet that Skenes will not be traded to the Jays or any other team this deadline.

Sandy Alcantara is a good buy low candidate, but at this point I don't see him commanding a huge package. Maybe a better package than his numbers would suggest, but not "top 50-100 prospect" packages (Nimmala). He currently has a 6.98 ERA (4.69 FIP) and other than velocity, he's looked bad in every other metric. Cabrera is more likely to fetch a big time package at this point, given his age, years of control, salary, etc. I think Sandy does fit the type of pitcher the Jays like, though, even if he never reclaims his Cy Young glory. Will eat up innings and he's someone the Jays defense should be able to help a lot. Pete Walker has a good track record with MLB starters, so might be a good fit for all involved. The fact that he comes with possible top of the rotation upside is icing on the cake. Good target depending on what the Marlins are asking for, and the $17M he's owed in 2026 is reasonable even if he doesn't bounce back. The Jays are paying 40 year old Scherzer a little bit less than that this season.

Rather have that Judge guy.

"Luis Ortiz suspended for potential gambling." this story brought to you by Fanduel.

If Kirky makes the All Star team (which he should), he'll be the 1st catcher in franchise history with multiple selections.

On the flip side, Justin Verlander has made 13 starts for the Giants. He is 0-5, the 1st Giants pitcher since at least 1901 to start 13 consecutive games without a win.

Wow, baseball has never been tarnished by gambling before.

Dalimon, I think that you are being overly optimistic with your trade outlooks. Alcantara is under control until the end of 2027, which means that its 3 potential playoff runs of a former Cy Young winner who isn't old and who is paid under the FA market rate for a starter of his upside. What recent history do you see where a pitcher with those qualities was traded for a single struggling ~Top 50 hitting prospect who hasn't even mastered High A? Nimmala looks like he is 3 years away, if he ever even makes it. Yes Alcantara is struggling after missing all of last season, but the years of control minimize the effect of the struggles.

That Skenes hypothetical doesn't even make sense. If Pittsburgh is years away from doing anything, then what value does Manoah give them (who is older, has less years of control, and hasn't done anything in two+ years plus is a complete unknown coming off injury)? Same thing with Clement, who is 30 years old next season and is a great utility player for a contending team, but serves little value to a bottom-barrell team.

C'mon lol; a player like Skenes isn't getting traded unless its for MULTIPLE elite prospects going back. Nimmala and Yesavage are not "elite", and the throw-ins don't balance the scale. Why wouldn't teams like Detroit, Baltimore, Boston, or the Dodgers be jumping all over Skenes? All of those teams have higher end prospects than Nimmala/Yesavage to dangle for a 23 year old elite starter with all sorts of control. Shit, if I'm Pittsburgh why wouldn't I ask for Roki Sasaki plus more for Skenes?

Skenes isn't being traded and if he were, Jays wouldn't have a chance. Too many other teams with better prospect/young player packages. I do think O'Neill Cruz is available and while he isn't an elite player, he has elite skills and there is a potential superstar there.

Alcantara wouldn't come cheap. He's not an ace but he's a very good pitcher under a lot of team control. Lots of teams will be after him.

put together a little chart:

Still no Bo tonight.

1. CF Lukes
2. DH Springer
3. 1B Guerrero
4. RF Barger
5. C Kirk
6. SS Clement
7. 3B Wagner
8. LF Schneider
9. 2B Gimenez



Anyone heard anything about Varsho?

Trades are fun to dream of, but hard to make happen in real life. For Berrios (a damn fine #2/3 pitcher) with 1 1/2 years of control it cost a top 20 prospect and a top 100 prospect in Austin Martin and SWR. Martin flopped after and was showing signs of that pre-trade (now an oft injured OF/2B who counts on walks for a chunk of his value - think of Cavan Biggio), while SWR looked very promising and is now a #4 starter type (ERA/FIP in the 4's a touch under 5 IP per start worth about 1-2 WAR a year).

That Berrios trade is a good reminder that getting solid pitching is expensive and that even top 20 prospects can flop (Martin peaked at #19 BA pre-the year he was traded).

I expect Sandy Alcantara to be expensive, but his last game (7 ER in 6 IP 10 H 0 BB 4 SO) hurts (5 runs in one inning, then threw 2 more innings) and his 68 ERA+ overall isn't impressive. I can't imagine Miami will trade him unless someone gives up something that appears to be high value, but isn't really (see Austin Martin). If they'd take Orelvis Martinez and a few of our OF glut then it might work out (they get a top 100 prospect who is down on his luck plus a few guys they can use immediately) but I'm certain they'll demand Yesavage and/or Nimmela which imo is too much unless the Jays are certain Alcantara is going to be his old self.

I'm not sure running a two-man bench against the Yankees (or any team, really) is the smartest move...

"Dalimon, I think that you are being overly optimistic with your trade outlooks. Alcantara is under control until the end of 2027, which means that its 3 potential playoff runs of a former Cy Young winner who isn't old and who is paid under the FA market rate for a starter of his upside. What recent history do you see where a pitcher with those qualities was traded for a single struggling ~Top 50 hitting prospect who hasn't even mastered High A? Nimmala looks like he is 3 years away, if he ever even makes it. Yes Alcantara is struggling after missing all of last season, but the years of control minimize the effect of the struggles."

Let me break this down. You describe Sandy Alacantara as a pitcher nobody that no longer exists. You are taking pre-tommy john version and using that to create his value. Speaking of recent history let me turn around the question and ask you what suggests he isn't the following: a) not a Cy Young candidate anymore b) overpaid for performance on a small market team (making 17 million (going up to 21 million) and c) is 29 years old .. I guess you can say "not old"? He's making over 20% already of his entire teams payroll. Maybe if he was on a contender with a budget higher than 67 million I could understand him having value to that team. Not on the Marlins. Nimmala is 19 competing in a league with an average age of 23. I don't think scouts share your opinion that he is struggling and hasn't mastered Single A. If they did he wouldn't be climbing up lists.

"That Skenes hypothetical doesn't even make sense. The hypothetical was "give us whatever the hell we want and we might trade him to you."

I suggested you'd have to start with all of those players and then add more. Also, I agree there isn't a a trade with Skenes where it makes sense for Pittsburgh if you're simply looking at the value of each player in return to decide if it makes sense. How many WAR will Skenes bring? Lets say he brings 5 WAR to your team but you get back 5 players that bring back 2 WAR. Doesn't that improve the overall team and performance from 5 WAR to 10 WAR while also maximizing return on a player you will lose anyway? If you don't see that then you will never see the value in a trade where you are giving up the best player. Simple.


"C'mon lol; a player like Skenes isn't getting traded unless its for MULTIPLE elite prospects going back. Nimmala and Yesavage are not "elite", and the throw-ins don't balance the scale. Why wouldn't teams like Detroit, Baltimore, Boston, or the Dodgers be jumping all over Skenes? All of those teams have higher end prospects than Nimmala/Yesavage to dangle for a 23 year old elite starter with all sorts of control. Shit, if I'm Pittsburgh why wouldn't I ask for Roki Sasaki plus more for Skenes?"

The answer to your question is very simple. Multiple elite prospects are more valuable than Paul Skenes. You can't see that because he's the best player. Milwaukee could have traded "multiple elite" prospects last year like Misiorowski, Luis Pena and Jesus Made. Boston could trade Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell...any of these trades would be terrible value for the team acquiring Skenes which is why it doesn't happen.

Looking at last year's trade deadline the NYY traded for a younger player than Alcantara in Chisholm and gave up. This is a player with 2+ years of control making 5.8 million not 17-20 million like Alcantara. None of those prospects were on the top 100.

Also Isaac Paredes was traded with 3+ years of control making 6.6 million and he brought back Chris Morel and two low prospects.

I think you need to re-adjust your expectations of what these players will bring back for their teams and also the value that all stars have to teams that cannot contend or afford them in the future. Alcantara is even worse since he is no longer performing to his contract.

"I've already mentioned this twice, once in the Cleveland thread and once in the Red Sox thread, but you still haven't responded to my cuttlefish bet that Skenes will not be traded to the Jays or any other team this deadline."

No, not interested in this bet as the odds are stacked against him being traded and even if they weren't I don't see value of a bet on a message board. If you want to offer up something more substantial such as a user name change and make a prediction other than "the most valuable trade commodity in baseball won't be traded" then I'd be intrigued.

Prior to yesterdays game, Schneider said Bo was feeling better and they were hoping he would be available off the bench if needed. Heard anything since?

FWIW, I saw a shot of him late in the game during some tense moments and he didn't look like someone that might get called into the game...

The Skenes trade prediction came from you, not me. I merely disagreed. And your tune has changed since you posted
"What were you offering to make it worthwhile? I'm good!".

“I'm not sure running a two-man bench against the Yankees (or any team, really) is the smartest move...”

Just imagine how many more games up the stupid Blue Jays could be in this series if they made a different move.

(PS Giménez and Jiménez are actually two separate dudes, it’s a 3-man bench)

Doesn’t much matter what you or I think. We aren’t the Miami GM. But if it was me and I didn’t like the offers I was getting for Alcantara I would just hang on. If he shakes off the post TJ rust and recovers his old form, the offers will improve this winter or this time next year.

Maybe I'm misjudging Alcantara's trade value, but I think there's a much better chance of the Marlins keeping him to trade him next summer than there is of the Marlins getting a great package in return for him right now. Of course, if he has like 3-4 great starts in July, then that could change.

Well actually the Skenes trade talk came from everyone.

Greenfrog proposed some ideas and noted it likely wouldn't happen. Michael made a note that this team really needs a true ace and noted that they are almost impossible to get.

I posted "I actually think Paul Skenes is more of a realistic trade target than most of these other guys. Pittsburgh won't be competing while he is there under contract. Offer the farm for him. You could likely get him for Tiedemann or Yesavage + Nimalla + Barger + low A pick (4 players). Then you re-sign Bo for SS. Makes a lot of sense actually."

Those other targets mentioned by posters were Freddy Peralta, Seth Lugo, Reid Detmers, Sandy Alcantara etc ... the discussion came off the heels of the Devers trade and Turnbull DFA as well as a Kiley McDaniel article with those names referenced by Greenfrog. It's not like out of the Blue I started advocating to acquire Paul Skenes. There's also been discussions on the radio with Jason Stark and Jeff Passan both discussing the possibility.

I don't like absolute posts proclaiming things like "this will never happen." Saying this I understand I can't control posts. Having gone back and looked at the Cleveland thread (notes from above pulled from) I would say I went too far in jumping from the names above to Skenes. I still maintain it makes a lot of sense but no, he is not a more realistic trade target than most of the other names like I said.

Team Stats

APR: 86wrc+ (#25), 3.47 runs/gm (#25)
MAY: 120wrc+ (#2), 4.86 runs/gm (#8)
JUN: 107wrc+ (#11), 5.00 runs/gm (#7)

TOT: 106wrc+ (#9), 4.57 runs/gm (#12)



APR: 106era- (#22), 106fip- (#21), 97xfip- (#12), 4.60 runs/gm (#20)
MAY: 92era- (#14), 96fip- (#11), 90xfip- (#6), 3.96 runs/gm (#13)
JUN: 113era- (#26), 107fip- (#21), 110xfip- (#25), 4.77 runs/gm (#19)

TOT: 105era- (#23), 104fip- (#20), 100xfip- (#16), 4.50 runs/gm (#21)

Pittsburgh won't be competing while [Skenes] is there under contract.

If the Pirates don't start competing while Skenes is under contract, Cherington will be looking for work. He's been there since 2019. He's not going to want futures.

Their owner is spending less money on the entire roster this year than Toronto is on one player. I don't think Cherington will be evaluated based on wins and competing. Owner clearly wants to keep payroll as low as possible and field a team competitive enough. I looked up payroll and saw 35 million for this year...is that accurate? They're going to unload some contracts. To quote Mr Belafonte...how low can you go?

Owner clearly wants to keep payroll as low as possible and field a team competitive enough.

In which case, you hang on to the guy who a) is your best player, and b) isn't even arbitration eligible yet.

You shop Mitch Keller.

After the game, Schneider said that they don't want to repeat the mistakes of previous years and bring Bo back before he's ready.

I think Skenes is unrealistic. Alcantara, I can't see the Marlins dealing yet. If they do, the Jays probably don't have the capital to get it done.

I've always been a huge DeGrom fan, have been since the Mets days and I thought the Jays missed a bet by not signing him in free agency before he went to the Rangers. Obviously injuries have taken a massive toll on his stellar career. I think he'd be a realistic trade target; mostly because his contract could probably only be taken by the Jays, Yankees, maybe the Dodgers or perhaps even the Tigers. He's pitching like an ace this season, and should the Jays take on his salary he wouldn't cost as much in prospects as Alcantra or some of the other bigger names. I'm hoping the Rangers stay out of the wildcard race so he's available.

Magpie that only works if you think you can realistically compete with a 35 million dollar budget.

Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
·
29m
Bo Bichette did full pre-game work "and if we need him, he'll be ready to roll," said Blue Jays manager John Schneider.

Andres Gimenez (jammed ankle) might be available off the bench.

"Probably for both of them, especially Bo, tomorrow very realistic to start," said Schneider.

Fangraphs Projected Team Rest of Season WAR:

Total:

1. LAD 24.6
2. NYY 22.9
3. ATL 21.3
4. TOR 21.0
5. PHI 20.9

Bat

1. LAD 15.7
2. NYY 15.0
3. CHC 14.5
4. TOR 14.0
5. ATL 13.9

Pit

1. PHI 9.6
2. MIN 9.1
3. LAD 8.9
4. HOU 8.6
5. DET 8.5
6. BOS 8.2
7. NYY 7.9
8. SEA 7.7
9. TEX 7.6
10. ATL 7.5
11. KCR 7.5
12. SDP 7.1
13. TOR 6.9
14. TBR 6.9
15. CLE 6.9
16. PIT 6.9

LA seems a little high. Muncy is injured and Yoshi is fading in the heat.

It's unprecedented how much of the NYY and LAD numbers are raised by one player on their team. Truly unbelievable.

I love Bo. However he seems like Mitch Marner... But I am happy to be wrong and he'll sign a fair value contract to stay with Vlad.

How does one get past Skenes is unrealistic. A generational talent for a franchise that needs hope. Nope.

Dalimon, I can't tell if you are being serious. These takes are wild.

#1 - on Sandy Alcantara: He is under 30 years old and his velocity is already more or less back to what it was pre-injury. I can take a look at the long history of TJ surgeries and combine it with his age, to deduce that there is no reason to assume that he is "finished" being a good pitcher. His control is off, which is the last thing that comes back from TJ surgery. I never said that he would revert back into a Cy Young pitcher; the point is that he doesn't even need to be that good to be worth much more than just Nimmala alone given that he has 2.5 seasons of control. Past trades of similar pitchers have confirmed this. His contract over the the next 2.5 seasons is an absolute steal given the potential upside he brings (ie: a 4+ fWAR starter). You seem to be forgetting that we had to pay 41 year old Max Scherzer $15.5 million on the open market: a pitcher that is 10x more volatile than Alcantara due to not only injury risk, but also likelihood of expected success.

I'm not sure where you are trying to go with respect to the point about how much of Miami's payroll he takes up. They aren't going to give him up for a bargain because he takes up "20% of their entire payroll". The fact that their payroll is so low and they have little hope of contending actually implies that they have zero reason to rush to trade him. You realize that with 2.5 years of control left, they can just hold onto him and reasonably expect him to NOT pitch at a near 7.00 ERA level next season and therefore return a bigger trade package at next year's deadline, right? Even the stupid Marlins aren't going to just punt away 2.5 seasons of their top asset.

Nimmala rose up prospect lists because he came out of the gate hot, but you seem to be completely oblivious to the fact that he has been horrible at the plate for over a month straight now. You want to seriously argue that he isn't clearly struggling? Since May 1st he is hitting just .222/.316/.384 with a 90 wRC+. That is two months of baseball, and 2/3rds of his season. Since June 1st it is even worse: .165/.252/.262 with a 40 wRC+. He is young, but his wRC+ is down to 105 on the entire season. Unless he starts turning it around, he will actually DROP on prospect rankings by the end of the season if his struggles continue. He rose up lists because he had a 141 wRC+ in April, but he has collapsed since then.

#2 - on Paul Skenes: Sir, I don't think that you understand that this a Top 3 pitcher in baseball who just turned 23 years old, and who doesn't become an UFA until 2030. He is on pace for ~8 WAR this season my man. This is a SUPERSTAR player with YEARS of control. You won't find a comparable trade because talents like this don't get traded with 4+ seasons of team control, but you can start with the Juan Soto trade to the Padres to see what a a package would begin to look like. The Padres gave up MacKenzie Gore (former Top 10 overall prospect who was already up to the MLB), CJ Abrams (Top 10 overall prospect in baseball who was already up to the MLB), Robert Hassell (Top 25 overall prospect in baseball), James Wood (Top 100 overall prospect in baseball), plus a low level lottery pitcher (Jarlin Susana). It was 2-3 elite prospects (two of whom were already MLB ready) and another Top 100 prospect with elite upside (Wood).

Keep in mind that this package was for FEWER years of control oF Soto than what Skenes would currently bring to any acquirising team. Skenes is absolutely as good as Soto was when he was traded, and may actually be better. He put up 4.3 fWAR in just 133 innings last year, and on pace for ~8 fWAR this season. Soto didn't put up his 8+ fWAR season until last year, at age "25".

Your argument about adding up a bunch of hypothetical ~2 WAR players and saying that this is more than what Skenes would bring is nonsense, and absolutely no MLB front office behaves this way when it comes to assigning trade value. What you are missing is this: a single ~8 WAR player is worth considerably more than four ~2 WAR players because the 8 WAR player occupies just one starting slot on your roster, and is considerably harder to replace on a 1-to-1 level. The four 2 WAR players take up four starting slots, and none of them are difference-maker players, which means that the overall upside of your roster is capped because a team with a bunch of barely-above-replacement level players has less room to optimize. Unlike the 8 WAR player, the single 2 WAR players are also generally available and not hard to replace. The team with the 8 WAR player has three more open roster slots to add in further WAR.

Hence then teams do trade "star players" (ie: 5-6+ WAR players) they expect to receive at least one prospect back minimum that has elite upside themselves. Absolutely nobody is trading a 5 WAR all-star player for six 1 WAR players who are barely above replacement level, regardless of the fact that if you combine them together it adds up to 6 WAR (which is more than 5 WAR). That isn't how WAR works when it comes to actually building a winning baseball team.

Multiple elite prospects are absolutely NOT worth more than Paul Skenes. Are you insane? They aren't worth more because the likelihood of any single one of them turning out to be as valuable as Skenes is extremely low, and this is baked into the trade value.

Jazz Chisolm was a lesser player than Alcantara at the time of his actual trade. He was a ~2-3 WAR player with Miami, and has became better after joining New York. Alcantara was a ~6 WAR player just two seasons ago, and 4.3 WAR the season before that.

When the Rays traded Parades, they were hopeful that they were buying low on a comparably talented MLB starter in Morel. The main part of that package was Morel, not the two prospects. It was a stupid trade for Tampa Bay at the time, and has not worked out to date. Keep in mind that starting pitchers are always more valuable at trade-deadline time than specific position players. A position player has far fewer fits among playoff contending teams, because they only make sense if a particular team has a hole at their position. Whereas almost every playoff team can always use MORE starting pitching. Hence pitching comes at a premium, so saying "well look at what Parades was traded for" isn't a 100% comparable to a potential top of the rotation starter like Alcantara.

I noticed last night that Jiménez was a defensive sub for Giménez in the 9th. I was surprised. Any thoughts? Is Giménez not 100%?

I hope Bassitt isn't tipping his pitches tonite.

I hope Bassitt isn't tipping his pitches tonite.

I suspect he hopes the same.

Giminez twisted his ankle on a sb attempt. Clearly was hurting in his next AB.

an attempt to tag out an sb attempt, to be precise.

phew. clutch pitch to get out of an inning he really shouldn't have been in trouble in.

My takes are serious and not wild. Drop Paul Skenes as I already mentioned I went to far with him in regards to trade proposals in another thread. But... in my response to you I completely disagree that Skenes is worth more than multiple elite prospects (see the examples I gave of Red Sox and Brewers top prospects). No chance those teams trade two of those players for Skenes. Skenes will be making 40-50 million in arbitration in a few years. He's pre arb next year and full arb after that. Free agent after 4 years. If he's as valuable as you say he is (which he is) then how will a 35 million dollar payroll team afford one player who will be making more than that in arbitration?

I see your points about Alcántara but don't agree on his value. He won't get Nammala + + and the risk of his performance not rebounding (and Miami getting less in return) is higher imho than yours. One note on Nimmala...one month doesn't write the kid off.

A lot of your arguments are one sided (Alcantara can return to being dominant but Chisholm was only a 2-3 WAR player last year). If you're going to grade one player in a "best case possibility" then do so for the other. Isaac Paredes trade was stupid is not an explanation of why a good player f
With 3+ years and low salary was moved for 2 nothing prospects and a major leaguer with major holes in his swing.

I respect your opinions on why these players are good but don't agree on why they won't be traded or won't be traded for a top ranked prospect in baseball aged 19.

Starger

I love Bo. However he seems like Mitch Marner...

They seem like completely different personality types, and I don't think Bichette has been designated as the local scapegoat, the one to blame for the team's disappointing post-seasons, the uncomfortable weather, the price of meat.

That said, he may also have come to a similar conclusion - that it's time to move on.

meh, Mitch was the most loved of the core 4 for most of his time here. He somehow managed to turn himself into the most hated by astonishing tone-deafness and every possible misstep.

Of course that has nothing to do with Bo. Mitch was much more of an elite player than Bo, and a much more insecure and defensive person. And the toronto hockey market is a completely different beast than the toronto baseball market.

And suddenly, with Vladdy signed longterm, with the Jays playing very well up and down the lineup, and with Bo's performance being just good and not great, all of a sudden him re-signing here for a reasonable amount seems much more likely imo.

Bassitt playing with some serious fire so far.

3rd time through the order gonna be interesting.

Georgeous swing.

Springer's Best Offensive Seasons:

2019 HOU: 556pa, 12.1b%, 20.3k%, .305bip, .292avg, .299iso, 155wrc+
2025 TOR: 318pa, 13.2b%, 20.1k%, .311bip, .277avg, .223iso, 145wrc+ --- IN PROGRESS
2020 HOU: 222pa, 10.8b%, 17.1k%, .259bip, .265avg, .275iso, 143wrc+
2017 HOU: 629pa, 10.2b%, 17.6k%, .297bip, .283avg, .239iso, 140wrc+
2021 TOR: 342pa, 10.8b%, 23.1k%, .286bip, .264avg, .291iso, 140wrc+
2022 TOR: 583pa, 9.3b%, 17.2k%, .285bip, .267avg, .205iso, 133wrc+

You're the number nine hitter, you're supposed to be able to do this.

best at bat of the season.

what a battle. i love lukes.

That was some at bat.

That was amazing.

Bassitt's been dicey all night.

But this is the key inning.

....and he has his best inning of the night.


He's at 94 pitches. 8 and 9 hitter due up next inning. Tired bullpen.

I think I let him go 2 more hitters at least.

Starger

gutsy gutsy outing from bassitt. good stuff.

Just tuning into the broadcast now. Lukes 14-pitch PA before his go-ahead double. Incredible. What a team!

Time for the pen to step up, please.

Looks like Bo is a go if needed. 

Little, Rodriguez, and Hoffman would all be going for the 4th time in 5 days if they pitched tonight and Garcia is probably down after 34 last night, so this one aint gonna be easy to close out.

It could be on the shoulders of Bruihl and Sandlin.

I was thinking leave Fisher in even though he was struggling but manager was smart bringing in Green. Would be nice if Green started finding his form again.

Green against the top of the order, of course, is a whole different ballgame.

fingers crossed.

thank you, The Human Element!

this game has everything.

Hoffman going for the 4th time in 5 nights.

It's a very big game so I get it, but man i hope we don't break him again.

Summer of George!

wow

Might not need Hoffman now...

Simply unbelievable. I can't believe this series.

Springer is incredible. Please sit down Hoffman!

this series is the most fun i've had watching baseball in....


....a long friggin time.

Amazing amazing amazing.

well done, boys.

After that HR, I never would have pulled Bruihl with a lefty up and a switch hitter who can't hit lefties following.

First 4-game sweep of the Yankees at the Dome ever. Just wow.

All-timer regular season series. Just incredible.

How sweep it is!

Our bullpen is pretty chewed up, but these were 4 huge wins.

Me too, me too.

Guerreo and Bichette get three hits between them in the four games. Jays sweep.

That wasn't on my bingo card.

Stay with me here for a sec.

What a series! Fun (and stressful) games with a playoff atmosphere.

According to Sportsnet: "Blue Jays have 49 wins through 87 games for the first time since 1993".

Josh
@Josh_theJaysFan
·
44m
“If it’s not broken, I’m not coming out of this game.”

- Vladdy (per John Schneider when asked about his foot)

YordiMLB Twitter-

https://twitter.com/YordiMLB/status/1941014837942755759#m

Apparently Lazaro Estrada is getting called up to Toronto to make his debut. Presumably as long relief if any of the starters over the weekend get knocked out early. Especially with the taxed pen after the Yankees sweep.

Or maybe Scherzer's thumb is worse than they are letting on.

Nice to have a proper long man in the pen again. Hopefully they actually allow Estrada to pitch some length if needed.

He'll require spots on both the 26th and the 40. Presumably Bruihl is going down. Perhaps Santander to the 60?

Incredible series, this team is so fun right now.

I had a terrible thought - the Jays DO have the key piece they could move in a major trade. It's a terrible thought because I don't want them to do it. But it could very well be justified for a top starter. And there is a very strong paralell to the '92 World Champs.

It's Addison Barger.

Trade a young, breakout player with power and a cannon of an arm? To me, that's a horrible idea.

Jeff Kent is close to being a Hall of Famer. Do the Jays regret the David Cone deal?

Like I said, I don’t want them to do it. But I can see the case for it.

Jays aren't trading Barger. Kent was viewed as expandable because he was behind Alomar at 2B. The funny thing about Kent is that he wasn't a great player until he was like 30. He was good mostly with New York but never even had a 3 WAR season. After he signed with SF, he had 9 seasons over 3 WAR including a couple over 6. Jays wouldn't have had those seasons under team control. Anyway, Barger is a middle of the order hitter with the Jays and Kent was a blocked prospect. Very different situations.

I don’t understand MLB’s scheduling. The All-Star break should be closer to the mid point of the season. We’ll be at almost 100 games by the time next Sunday rolls around. From the Jays perspective, they’ll be headed out on a multi timezone road trip right before the break, which has to very taxing.

At any rate, it’s as exciting to be a fan of this team as it has been since the ‘15 and ‘16 season. I say that because, while we believed the team was a playoff team in years since, there is an “it” factor and a resolve to the ‘25 squad that other teams didn’t have.

The close call with Ohtani sucked the life out of the organization for last year, the ‘22 and ‘23 teams never felt as serious because the team so obviously lacked offence and relied too heavily on the starters, and the ‘21 team figured things out too late to even make the playoffs and had three other very good teams in the division to deal with.

It feels different to me too, Petey. I hope this feeling turns out to be true.

If anyone has listened to the new Jays/baseball pod, 6ix inning stretch, Merrifield said that the 2023 team thought they were going to win it all as well. I hope this team has more success than they did.

Francys Romero@francysromeroFR

The Toronto Blue Jays have called up Cuban right-hander Lazaro Estrada to MLB, according to sources.

Estrada, 26, thus completes a long eight-year journey with the Blue Jays, which included undergoing Tommy John surgery.

I figured someone would bring up trading Barger at some point but he's such an important element to this club now that I can't see it happening. His growth has been incredible to watch and he has legit 30 homer pop, which the Jays have long sought... plus the defensive versatility and the arm. It would be almost impossible to give him up now.

Lazaro Estrada's call up has also been confirmed by Francys Romero. I first tweeted about Estrada in 2022 and thought he was a future big leaguer. High spin fastball (93-95 mph) that plays up because of the spin... and a very good curve (also high spin). Recently added a slider and splitter.

99 I think the ‘22 and ‘23 teams were justified in thinking they had a chance, so I don’t think Merrifield is wrong. He was there everyday and playing on the team, so obviously he’s much closer to the action.

However, it just seems this years team has fertile ground for a division title as it just simply doesn’t have many obvious weak spots. There’s nobody that’s weighing the team down having a horrible year, and it seems each week brings a new player that put the team on its back, where in previous years they relied on outstanding starting pitching or a ridiculous Bo hot streak to keep them winning. It’s pretty solid all the way around.

Was researching FG where I found an answer to the upcoming series when I stumbled across something surprising. The Yankees are tied with the Dodgers at 121 wRC+, the best in the majors. But here are the 4 worst clutch teams in baseball so far:

SEA: -3.69
CWS: -4.27
COL: -5.33
NYY: -6.68

I am really enjoying us getting carried away about a team with +9 run differential. I am believing all of it.

It's not totally surprising. Judge provides a lot of their offense but has only 67 ABs with runners on scoring position.

A lot of it has to do with Gausman, Berrios and Bassitt getting blown out here and there.

The Yankees' fortunes seemed to turn when they faced the Dodgers in LA, starting with 5-8 and 2-18 losses.
They went 1-5 against Boston, then 1-3 against the Angels at home.

They play the Mets, Mariners and Cubs before the All-Stars game.
Meanwhile the Jays play the Angels, White Sox and A's.

Kent was deemed expendable because he played the same position as Alomar. Barger is currently the 2nd best starting position player on the team by wRC+ and can play 3B and RF (two positions not filled by anyone else better than him). That’s not a piece you trade when there’s a realistic shot at the division. If the Jays are going to make a big trade this month then it will involve prospects, as it should if you want to maximize 2025 wins.

The 2015 Jays were a .500 team at the deadline.
A lot of the excitement came form having the MVP, but that team had lots of holes.
Also, the Yankees won 87 and the rest of the division were .500 teams, so it was all open.

The 2022 team had Chapman, Teoscar, Gurriel and Merrifield.
Kirk, Merrifield, Chapman, Kiermaier, Guerrero and Springer all had down years in 2023.

Interesting to think about Kent. He wasn't a big time prospect - not even sure he made any of our top 10 lists - but clearly baseball people liked his power potential. His milb numbers were very solid and the team promoted him pretty quickly, including skipping him right past AAA, albeit he was already 24 at the time.

He also wasn't doing nearly what Barger is doing now, offensively or defensively. Then again, that's small sample stuff.

Iirc he was playing as a fill in for the injured Gruber at 3B, but wasn't really a 3B defensively. Also wasn't good defensively at 2B either.

Jays didn't want to give up on Gruber at the time, and they also had another 24yr old 3B who was hitting up AAA very well at the time in Ed Sprague.

In retrospect, Gruber was in fact toast and they traded him after the season anyways. And Sprague never became a good mlber. But Kent wasn't a 3B anyway. Tho he still would probably have been a huge upgrade over Gruber the rest of that year so the trade definitely hurt in that slot. But Kent was just good that year (and in his time with the mets)....i don't know if Barger can keep this up but i don't think we can risk losing a guy who's giving us a 6+ war pace. He's giving us Alomar level contributions this year, not Kent level. It's guys like Schneider this year or Jimenez/Wagner last year that are giving us 1992 Kent level contributions p

But more importantly, the jays rotation was a bigger issue that year. Key and Guzman were great but iirc Guzman was injured near the deadline. Morris was an innings eater but not great. Stottlemyre was always an adventure and not a guy they wanted starting playoff games. While old Stieb and young Wells were a disaster that year.

The jays could use an SP upgrade this year, but at the same time if healthy they do have 4 guys that they're good with starting in the playoffs, while Lauer is doing a much better job than anything in the 5th slot was doing for the jays that year.

So while the jays took a hit in the lineup with that trade they also filled a gaping hole in the rotation with an Ace, so it made sense.

I don't think we have that kind of gaping hole to fill at the moment. And i think we need Barger's contribution badly this year - we may lose it just by him falling off anyways, but we can't just guarantee that by giving it away.

I feel like 93 ended pretty well. Here's hoping we keep the good vibes going!

Don't want to pin it all on him, but starting the day after Santander played his last game, I present the Jays offence:

fWAR: 8.5 1st (TB 2nd at 7.6)
Defence 11.0 1st (STL 2nd at 4.9)
wRC+ 123 2nd (TB 1st at 128)
BA 278 2nd (TB 1st at .280)
OBP .347 1st (MIL 2nd at .344)
SLG .447 5th (TB 1st at .466)
BABIP .300 10th (TB 1st at .329)
K% 15.4% 1st (KC 2nd at .18.3)

This why the Jays have the 3rd best record in that span at 21-10 (behind only HOU 22-9 and LAD 22-10) despite their 26th place 4.88 ERA.

"I am really enjoying us getting carried away about a team with +9 run differential. I am believing all of it."

2021 Blue Jays had a run differential of +183 and missed the playoffs.

I'd be curious to see what the run differential estimate would be rest of way. Take away Francis from the starting rotation for the first half. Use those adjusted numbers to estimate rest of way for 2025 season. Then adjust in a few weeks for trade additions.

I would take the run differential with a grain of salt... the Yanks absolutely bombed some teams (very oddly, I might add) in April at home.

Great piece on Lazaro Estrada: https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/with-big-spin-and-electric-fastball-lazaro-estrada-has-put-himself-on-blue-jays-prospect-radar/

I think this was one of the best, if not the best, midseason Blue Jays series ever, given the importance of the series, the dramatic tension and plays throughout the series, the fact that it was the first-ever four-game sweep of the Yankees by the Blue Jays at home, and the fact that Toronto ended the series in sole possession of first place in the AL East.

Brilliant stuff, and it seems to have supercharged the Toronto fan base. This bodes well for a splashy move or two at the trade deadline.

I don't think we have that kind of gaping hole to fill at the moment. And i think we need Barger's contribution badly this year - we may lose it just by him falling off anyways, but we can't just guarantee that by giving it away."

Agree with Ugly on this. If the Jays can get a top-line starter, great, but other than that, the needs are relatively small. A RH bat would be nice, but Schneider is hitting well now. A bullpen piece would be good, but bullpen is pretty strong if they aren't overworked so it isn't necessary. Barger is middle of the lineup hitter this year and likely a big part of Jays going forward. (most likely scenario next year is Bo somewhere else, Clement to SS, Barger to 3B and playing time for one of the AAA outfielders). Trading Barger makes no sense.


Happy to see Estrada up. Always like when long-time minors guys get the call. Jays badly needed a long-man up as well. Hopefully, Lauer and Estrada can handle most of the innings tonight and bullpen can get reset.

Thanks, Marc, for the Estrada link. The videos are great and we can see how much movement he has on his pitches.