Perhaps they are saving Cease and Gausman for the Rays.
I don't think the Rays are a team they need to beat at this point, but that's just me.
The Jays are in Tampa for 4, so that leaves Yeasavage, Cease and Gausman for Boston which is definitively a team they need to beat.

I see it as the Jays trying to measure if they can win in the playoffs by setting up a playoff rotation sorta for that Rays series - win or sweep that series and there is hope, lose or get swept and the hope is nearly gone. Very important to get that eye on what could happen come playoffs should they sneak in.

My bet right now is not on the Jays sadly. I want them to win, to prove me wrong. If Vlad gets going, if others can carry their weight plus, then anything can happen. If not ... well ... 2025 was so much fun I can live with a few years of suckitude. Survived the 1994-2014 period, I can endure a few years of that again if needed. We have some good looking kids coming soon. For now lets enjoy what we see and hope for the best for '26.

FYI: Love the accidental links that show up on the side (spammers cause old stories to pop up there sometimes). The Tucker to the Dodgers reminded me how we thought the Jays were after Bo (Mets for $42 mil per), Bellinger (seemed unlikely at that point), hoped Arizona would change their mind on Ketel Marte, with Brendan Donovan the guy who was most tradable. So what if?

• Bo: 0.0 bWAR first half, 86 OPS+ at 3B
• Bellinger: All-Star game MVP, 3.6 bWAR 114 OPS+. Crap.
• Marte: 1.7 bWAR 110 OPS+, bat down a bit, but overall solid player
• Donovan: 141 OPS+ but just 0.6 bWAR due to injuries (out since May 15th - groin strain but now up to 2 months on it - also had hip strain and missed more time too before that)
• Tucker: 0.9 bWAR 100 OPS+ - OK for a guy like Lukes, but for $57 mil you expect a bit more.

Ugh. Marte or Bellinger would've been sweet, but Tucker, Bo, and Donovan would've been ugly and expensive (cash or prospects). Getting Bellinger would've been a 7 game swing with the Yankees - putting the Jays within 2 of them potentially but still well back of the Rays (how the hell do they do this with no budget?).

I don't have much appetite for selling this year after being in the WS last year. I think the Jays would really have to bomb the next 16 games to convince me to be a seller. Otherwise, I remain a believer that this team is ready to go on a prolonged tear and be in the playoffs again.

Yeah this fanbase is way too eager to sell at the first sign of trouble imo. We went to the WS last year, and are a handful of games out of a playoffs spot at the moment with 4 of our best position players gone awol.

Are we really eager to start another decade rebuild.

I'm only interested in trading to improve chances of winning. Finding improved pitching and definitely offense for next year or ideally next year and this year. There's no reason it has to be a BUY or SELL rather than both.

Trading guys like Varsho, Barger, prospects, Sanchez, Yesavage can improve your team depending on what you get back or it can tank your team this year and in the future. It all depends on the results of trades and I'm glad I'm not the one that has to make the decisions.

One thing is definitely true for me though, the team is not good enough to go as deep as last year in my opinion and if they can improve the offense in any way, do it now!

There is no way they go full seller mode. They want to sell as many tickets (and merch) as possible - especially with 2027 likely being a write-off due to lockout... they may go soft-sell and/or look to add a younger player with multiple years of control like Varland... but it's also an extreme sellers' market with so many teams in the playoff hunt.

More pragmatically, they have very little to sell off the MLB roster that has any value unless they are moving players who have term or are pre UFA and I don't see any reason why they would be moving any of those players.

Nigel,

Wouldn't you agree that players who fit that mold include guys like Barger and Yesavage and wouldn't it be possible to turn those players into something that can dramatically improve the offense?

Example, trading the high ceiling possibility of Yesavage and Barger for the certainty of one offensive player coming back (if it exists)? You sell Yesavage as a #2 type rotation starter with Ace stuff in case he settles down into a #3 or #4. With Barger you sell high on the idea of a potential 30HR LHH OF with a canon arm before he's exposed as a 4th OF type.

I'm not going to pretend like teams will be lining up for Barger but definitely a team that is out of contention but feels ready next year, they might want to trade someone good now for these types of players.

The Twins, Angels, Athletics, Mets, Reds and Giants are prime teams that would probably jump on the chance to trade for guys like Barger and Yesavage while giving up players that can help now. I'm purely speculating obviously, but how about something like:

to SF
Berrios
Yesavage
Barger
Hoffman
Clement

to TOR
Schmitt
Ray
Arraez
Devers
Webb

Maybe you remove a bunch of the payers but the idea is to trade some pieces you don't want next year for pieces they don't want next year (Berrios/Devers). Also trade for some expiring contracts to help this year and sacrifice some guys who are under control but not helping you enough this year. Example, Jeff Hoffman for Robbie Ray.

The idea is to re-structure your team so you can have some more offense.

Otherwise you can just trade your top prospects for elite rentals like Skubal but who thinks that strategy would work?


Probably the best strategy is somewhere in between and more realistic:

to SF
Berrios
Hoffman
Bloss

to TOR
Ray
Arraez
Devers

Line up would look like:

2B Arraez
RF Springer
1B Guerrero Jr
DH Devers
3B Okamoto
C Kirk
SS Clement
CF Varsho
LF Lukes

So maybe to get that deal done for Devers, Arraez and Ray you have to end up including someone like Barger as well, and then you can also dump Gimenez on them to replace Arraez next year.

Realistic or video game fantasy?

I'm really not sure Barger has much value. I think that his complete reshaping of his body over the past few years and now the muscle injury issues that have followed will raise concerns about how often he can get on the field.

For sure Yesavage will have a lot of value. The problem is that there is no replacement for Yesavage coming from the system any time soon. For 2027 the team is in pretty dire need of SP. They need to trade for Yesavage not get rid of him. Any trade of Yesavage for hitting is robbing Peter to pay Paul in my view.

I'll just say that if the internal view is that you would be selling high on Yesavage right now (unlikely but not a crazy thought) then that's an entirely different kind of trade.

What's happening with Scherzer? Was supposed to throw a rehab start 3 days ago.

Saw some speculation in print and then Bunkis was talking about it this morning (unenthusiastically) but it provoked a minor brainstorm in me even though this is like 99+% unlikely.

If they Mets conclude they need a massive reset and they find a way to move Lindor (who apparently doesn't get along with Soto) and are willing to reconsider Bo...what would it look like if you trade for him if you condition it on them taking Gimenez in the deal in order to mitigate the cost?

In such a case, the money becomes a non-issue. You'd only be adding $19 million next year and '28 which is a contract you'd have signed last winter on top of Gimenez. Plus Gimenez has more years so you'd actually in total cost only be taking on a net $10 million or so.

Then you move Clement to SS and play Bo at 2B (if he really doesn't like it he'll opt out but having moved to 3B in NY he's kinda burned that bridge)

The gamble would be that both he and Vlad would be energized to go on a tear being reunited and the question before you is "how much prospect capital are you willing to bet on that proposition?"

Like - If I could trade Juan Sanchez and Greg Stanifer to take this chance...worth it?

I admit I find it intriguing.


Side note: BNS and Bunkis talks about Vlad needs a wing man (in general) but to me, that guy is here in Kaz. He might hit 40 homers this year. I don't think that **IF** there's a psychological thing with Vlad, it's not that he needs "somebody" but that he might need his best friend.

Yesavage is cheap. The Jays are way over the luxury tax. I don't see how he's in the conversation.
Same for Barger. Not established. No real trade value.

They've made the first adjustment by moving Springer to DH.
Now, they need to sit him a couple times a week against right handed pitching, until he starts hitting again.
If Springer is on the bench, he can pinch hit whenever a lefty comes up, otherwise, they have nobody to pinch hit for.

By August, if Kirk hasn't caught up, the catcher could be sharing the load.

On the pitching side, Cease could be more aggressive and walk fewer guys.
Yesavage needs to throw strike 1.
With Bieber and Gausman, it's just about executing.

Saw some speculation in print and then Bunkis was talking about it this morning (unenthusiastically) but it provoked a minor brainstorm in me even though this is like 99+% unlikely.

If they Mets conclude they need a massive reset and they find a way to move Lindor (who apparently doesn't get along with Soto) and are willing to reconsider Bo...what would it look like if you trade for him if you condition it on them taking Gimenez in the deal in order to mitigate the cost?

In such a case, the money becomes a non-issue. You'd only be adding $19 million next year and '28 which is a contract you'd have signed last winter on top of Gimenez. Plus Gimenez has more years so you'd actually in total cost only be taking on a net $10 million or so.

Then you move Clement to SS and play Bo at 2B (if he really doesn't like it he'll opt out but having moved to 3B in NY he's kinda burned that bridge)

The gamble would be that both he and Vlad would be energized to go on a tear being reunited and the question before you is "how much prospect capital are you willing to bet on that proposition?"

Like - If I could trade Juan Sanchez and Greg Stanifer to take this chance...worth it?

I admit I find it intriguing.


Side note: BNS and Bunkis talks about Vlad needs a wing man (in general) but to me, that guy is here in Kaz. He might hit 40 homers this year. I don't think that **IF** there's a psychological thing with Vlad, it's not that he needs "somebody" but that he might need his best friend.

It will be far easier to replace Yesavage in the rotation with prospects or free agents next year whereas an offensive top of the line up hitter you won't have the same opportunity.

In the minors the Blue Jays have Stanifer, King and Bloss who can all help with rotation spots. They also have Berrios and Ponce. On the free agent market they can sign Michael Ling, Skubal Gray, Ray, Gray, Severino, Gausman, Pivetta, Bieber etc... way more options.

For hitter free agents you have Springer, Imananga and Happ. I know where I would trade from and what I would trade for after taking stock of my inventory and what will be available.

*King not Ling

Don't know what's worse, watching Vlad struggle or thinking he needs an emotional support teammate to do what's expected of him.

Lindor has long been one of my favorite players in the game both statistically and personality-wise. There’s been a lot of talk during the Shapiro/Atkins era that the club has attempted to trade for him on a couple occasions. I seem to recall in the 2019 off-season they couldn’t pull off the trade, so they made the big splash with Springer. I just don’t know why he plays; he doesn’t supplant Giminez at short, does he? They did form a very good tandem in Cleveland but Lindor was younger.

Gimenez has 3yrs/$71.5M left on his deal after this season, so he's not tradable at all unless it's for an equally bad contract. Bo at 2yrs/$84M (assuming he doesn't opt out) is exactly the type of contract swap that would at least be somewhat realistic if you wanted to move Gimenez. The biggest issue is the CBT implications. I believe it's been reported that the AAV on a contract is recalculated when a player is traded based on the remaining years, so assuming that's true, then Bo is a $42M CBT hit while Gimenez I believe when acquired was a $19M CBT hit (give or take). That's a significant difference. Getting out of the Gimenez contract one year early would certainly be a good thing though, especially with the team's two best prospects being infielders (Nimmala/Parker). It won't happen, but it's not without some logic, especially since Bo could easily bounce back next season and opt out, so there's a chance to get out of that deal even sooner. Hell, he could have a big 2nd half and opt out this winter (doesn't seem likely or smart with the CBA expiring, though).

Gimenez might be closer to a 1-2 WAR player at this point. The bat is legitimately bad (78 wRC+ since the start of 2024) and his injuries have likely contributed to his base running fall off. Defense is still good at least.

Springer is in left-field today, with Valenzuela DHing.  Thumbs up.  I'm hoping that this means more time for Keys.  

Bo has a 131wrc+ over his last 151pa.

.293/.330/.470 in his last 215 PA.

And I don't accept the premise that he would've had the same struggles to start his season if he remained a Blue Jay.

Injury updates:

Scherzer and Santander got cortisone shots.

Yimi Garcia and Jesus Sanchez are moving to throwing and hitting off live BP.

Barger is still hurting.

So no immediate help on the horizon.

Agreed 92-93.

Mike the fascination is that we know that he was a huge member of an elite team with an elite clubhouse last year. Losing one of the most important players on that team (and others) was always a risk of disrupting a good thing beyond just a raw individual stat input.

A chunk of the fanbase's fascination with Bo is recency bias and a part of it is real. Last year Bichette hit a remarkable (and completely fluky) .381 (1053 OPS, 190 wRC+) with RISP and led all of MLB in those stats by a mile. It felt like every time the team needed a big hit with RISP he delivered. While that level of performance was fluky he's one of those (relatively few) hitters who have a pronounced career outperformance in those situations. He's a career 143 wRC+ with RISP versus 102 wRC+ with the bases empty. For reference, Vladdy for his career actually hits a little worse in those situations and Springer hits pretty much the same in all. The team hasn't had any of that this year.

BNS said Scherzer got cortisone in his THUMB.

If he's having thumb issues again he needs to be thinking about giving up on continuing. A team with ANY faint thought of making a comeback can't do the thumb dance again.

For me it's not a fascination with Bo as much as not wanting to pay Gimenez $23M a year for the next 3 years as he puts up a 70 wRC+ and 15 steals. If you can flip him for a more useful player who has an equally bad contract, then I'm game.

Bo's contract is a LOT worse that Gimenez's. I mean Gimenez has been a significantly better player this year and he'll be making $20M a year less. It's one thing to pay for 3 WAR player and get a 2 WAR player and another to pay for a 5 WAR player and get a 2. 5 WAR player. I also don't think Jays' fans are prepared for how bad the team defense would be without Gimenez at SS. Gimenez has 10 OAA. Next best infielder for the Jays are Urias and Clement with 1 OAA. Bo is - 2 OAA. I would trade Berrios for Bo probably but cause I think Berrios is a $25M a year 5th starter. In general though, Bo isn't a great fit for this team. Jays need power and/or athleticism/defense. Yordan Alvarez a fantastic fit IMO. Buxton a great fit. Etc...

the only way Gimenez' WAR makes any sense this year is if you believe he's the best defensive SS you've ever seen.

Who's better than Gimenez defensively??

Schneider said that the team was looking to come out after the break and make a statement of intent. Statement appears to be fairly clear.

The question for a bad contract trade is what to expect in '27 and beyond. '26 should be reasonably predictable now. There is fan value in getting Bo back, but what about Francisco Lindor for Gimenez & Berrios? Lindor gets $34.1 a year for 26-31 (yikes) but Gimenez & Berrios are $23.6 for 3 (Gimenez) and $24.7 for 2 for Berrios (after this year) = $96.6 for 27/28 and $23.6 for 29 and $2.5 for buyout = $122.7 mil. Lindor is 5 years = $170.5 - getting a lot closer to a deal, and Vlad and Lindor appeared to get along in stories when the Jays were looking at Lindor. The question becomes did Lindor drop from a 120 OPS+ guy to an 82 this year or is it just a slump. While Lindor isn't as good as Gimenez on defense he is close (multiple GG, high fielding scores throughout his career) and with the bat potential this could be a steal, or a nightmare. But with $123 mil nearly written off between Gimenez & Berrios the risk is $47 mil roughly over 5 years - negligible if the Mets are willing. I suspect they'd want a prospect mixed in and we'd want one back too. This could work and wouldn't be a white flag for either club. Both would have ways to spin it for fans.

Varsho swung at at least 4 balls in that AB. Maybe 5.

Varsho needs to be benched. He's injured and not good, defensively or offensively.

Schneider needs to stop managing 2-3 steps ahead and just manage inning by inning. Coming out of the all star break and you're down 8-4 with your pitchers used being a mix of Miles, Macko and Corbin. How about trying to take a lead and using your best pitchers at this point to try to get to that point?

You can't tell from the telecast but pretty much EVERY hitter is standing at the back of the batters box for both teams.

That Macko performance was non competitive. Topping out at 92/93 and throwing junk curves at 72mph...

3 ChiSox pitchers, all ex-Jays.

I think Kirk is struggling to recover from his thumb injury. Is Varsho struggling to recover from an injury? Serious question.

He's trying to play through a wrist injury and has been wearing wrist guards. It's painful to watch. He gets inflammation constantly when swinging.

Thanks

"the only way Gimenez' WAR makes any sense this year is if you believe he's the best defensive SS you've ever seen."

Gimenez is way behind Bobby Witt defensively and bunched with Swanson, Perdomo, and Rocchio. That's not the best defensive SS I've ever seen, that's a very good defensive SS which is not surprising. This is Gimenez's fifth straight year with at least 10 OAA. He's a very bad offensive player and an excellent defensive one at a premium position. That might get him 2-2.5 WAR which is not unreasonable.

Well, that was a depressing game. At least we didn't need to see it (thanks AppleTV). Miles had a bad inning but otherwise was good, a learning experience for him. Macko had nothing, Van Eyk got to be broken in. Only key pitcher used was Fisher for 6 pitches (so fully available tomorrow). Corbin I don't care - he could be released tomorrow and I doubt any of us would mind. Urias is forcing them to play him more I think. If a team out there wants Gimenez I say make the deal even if you eat a chunk of his contract. Clement can handle SS, Urias at 2B (see if he is worth holding onto for 2027), if he flops you can call up Schneider or McAdoo or Kasevich. Might as well see if there is anything there for the future. Tampa's SS have sucked royally so they might be in the market (eat salary to get prospects back), Boston too. Hate to deal within the divisioin but why not if the deal is right.

I don't like Apple TV's graphic for challenges as I kept thinking it was number of outs in the condensed game replays.

I don't know why folks are keen to trade Yesavage. He's the sort of piece you rebuild around, not trade. And he wouldn't be "selling high", that would have been in the offseason. Maybe he flames out and this is his peak value, but if so, that is unlucky, and I don't think anyone is going to give you the stud value for him, so you want to hold as the upside risk is too good. And the team isn't in a "win now no matter what" point which is the only time you'd sell a resource like Yesavage.

The Jays rank dead last in MLB in xwOBA, 23rd in wRC+, 28th in ISO, 29th in BB%, 27th in runs, 29th in barrel%. That’s just the hitting side, that doesn’t account for ranking 24th in starter ERA. Only 9 teams in MLB have a worse run differential, and now the Jays have been lapped by the Red Sox in the standings, making the slim path to a WC spot even slimmer.

At some point they need to stop looking at the games back and look at common sense. This team needs to trade Gausman, Springer, Varsho, Hoffman, etc, and replenish as much of the farm as they can while they retool for next season. Let players like Keys, Clase, etc get extended looks in August/September. No one actually wants that, I think we’d all rather gear up for October baseball, but there is a fine line between hope and delusion.

Literally only one person advocated for trading Yesavage and that was me. If anyone else commented it was just to ask "what the heck for?"

I feel like posters read "trade Yesavage," and instantly jump to some intense fan overreaction as the reason for the idea. I've laid out why it can make sense and it's because he is the type of player "you build around not trade away," which is the only type of player another team would want to give up a bonafide offensive player for. Simple.

The Jays have lots of starting pitching coming up and lots of SP free agents they can sign. That elusive offensive player to help them be better than bottom of the league? Non existent.

Francys Romero says Lazaro Estrada has been recalled. That's it for CJ Eyk, possibly?

Brendon Little is also in Toronto, bye bye Macko?

Macko looked really poor last night. Not sure he’s playable right now.

I'm not sure why they need to see guys implode in-game before making important decisions. If they spent a lot of time optimizing their rotation coming out of the break as they say then why didn't they use information from the pitching lab or bullpens to prevent a move like Macko going into a 3 run game? You should be able to see his FB velocity is down significantly and he's not likely to succeed with his stuff right now. What could they have done instead? Bring in another pitcher in a 3 run game instead of Macko who quickly doubled the deficit. It's moves like this that just seem to add more pressure and deepen the challenge for the players that I can only imagine makes it harder to stay motivated.

By the way, yesterday at the game Clement was focused during breaks, checking his position card. Springer and Vlad spent multiple commercial breaks talking with either the opposing players or the bullpen players. I liked the hustle I saw from George in-game but I was disappointed with the teams give. Between the constant chatting between innings and the Goo Goo Doll and Aerosmith walk up music, the game just sucked. I have never been to a live MLB game and seen such uncompetitive stuff from a pitcher in what I felt was a must win game.

Yes I know, it was not a must win game and playing rock music for a walk up song instead of soft rock won't magically turn a player into a better one. To spend the time and money to park and see some of the junk I saw yesterday...forgive me for venting.

Schneider seems to have been using Adam Macko as his 1st man out of the pen a lot in a similar fashion to how he leaned so heavily on Mason Fluharty last year.

By rough count, Macko was the 1st reliever out of the pen in 9 of his last 12 relief appearances.

It was also notable that it was Macko who Schneider turned to in an emergency situation recently where Yesavage was walking the world and couldn't make it out of the second inning. A situation where one would think is the very reason you are keeping Patrick Corbin around in the pen as long man.

Perhaps the coaching staff is treating Corbin with kid gloves in terms of time required to get warm as a reliever as as lifelong starter. Whereas Macko is more trusted to get loose quickly with his conversion to a fulltime reliever over the last few seasons.

Brendon Little since July of last season has a -0.2 WAR, 7.27 ERA, and 7.53 BB/9 in 46 innings. Not counting the 7.03 BB/9 in 32 AAA innings this season. Macko may not be the answer, but we have a pretty good idea that Little isn't either.

Amen SK and more to my point. If you want to contend bring another guy up.

I just don't think it makes much sense to have some sort of tear down unless the Jays are like 10 games out at deadline for three reasons.
1) The guys Jays would trade don't have much value. Gausman and Varsho would get you something but not much with the way they are playing. I don't think Springer would get you anything and he's a major clubhouse guy and playing decently now. You don't trade Hoffman unless you're getting a fair bit back because you just need to replace him next year.
2) The guys Jays would free up time for aren't generally great prospects.
3) Even if Jays are 5 back with plenty of teams ahead of them, a hot streak gets them into playoff position and trading Springer for an A-reliever and to get Sean Keys more PAs doesn't make sense in that case.

If they are way out of it, obviously, trade the expiring contracts and get what you can get and if someone is willing to give you excellent value for anyone else, I'd take it as well. Not a single person on the team I wouldn't consider trading.

I agree that Little isn’t the answer. It’s clear that hitters have figured him out. The problem is that I don’t think that there is a better option in Buffalo.

Confirmation from the Jays that Van Eyk and Macko have been optioned.

Little and Estrada up.

Bloss has a Teres Major injury in his shoulder. Jays unsure of timing for his return.

Would it really hurt his development if the FO just promoted Gage Stanifer or Fernando Perez? Nolan Perry?

I was at that trainwreck too, dalimon5, and agree on the poor bullpen usage. The game was 5-2 in the 5th inning, surely they could have gone to Fisher if they insisted on saving Fluharty for the lefty pocket later in the game.

out there blasting "Right Now" for the ceremony and I remember that all last fall I was banging the drum for that exact song to be used all over the place for the playoff run.

I remember in 2015 someone did a FMV using "Thunderstruck" for that team and if I had ANY skills for that sort of thing I'd have made one for the '25 team using "Right Now"

Maybe he just looks better in comparison to some earlier weak efforts but that first inning looked materially better from Bieber.

Oh, and about the fascination with Bo - he was basically the same as hitter as Derek Jeter in his pre-FA seasons (context-adjusted), and he hit a legendary 3-run HR on one leg at home in Game 7 of the World Series. The dude was pretty good.

Thanks Joe Carter for calling out the 2026 Blue Jays. Vladdy is H-E-A-T-I-N-G up.

Sometimes the All-Star breaks rest help players and sometimes they get rusty. 
Macko must have been pretty bad to force them to bring Little back up.
At the same time, if Little is not playable, they might as well move on before he's out of options.
So, nothing wrong with checking if he's fixed anything as long as they don't use him in high leverage. 

And unlike the Clutch God, Bo, as I noted above, actually has a case for long term outperformance in the clutch.

Big win. Vladdy definitely looking better in last week of games. Springer too. Great to see Bieber pitch well too. A glimmer of hope.

With Bo, we'll always have the memories, but physically, he has not aged well.
It would be nice to have the version that stole 25 games back but we'll find that in another body. 

I'm not following him at all, but I imagine in NY, it's all about making him feel good enough about himself to opt out.
He's at 0bWAR, 86 OPS+. I don't see why he'd leave when nobody knows what the next CBA will be like.

There is the killer variable with all trades/free agent signings right now - the CBA and what happens in 2027. If players 'win' things will be very similar to now and teams will feel safe trading vets for prospects, and the like. If a cap comes we'll have nothing in '27 and probably '28 as well thus making any deals bad ones. Lord knows what a cap would do to teams like the Jays-Dodgers-Mets-Yankees who are well over the luxury tax levels and have long term guys signed.

Jays commitments...

• 2027: $204.763 mil
• 2028: $185.664 mil
• 2029: $126.369 mil
• 2030: $77.541 mil (Vlad/Cease/Gimenez buyout/Kirk)

Vlad under contract through 2039, Cease 2032, Kirk 2030.

So worst case, hard cap 2+ years lost, we'd have Vlad-Cease-Kirk and whatever is allowed from prospects (gotta figure Buffalo would be overflowing by then, as would New Hampshire). Draft/IFA unable to be signed during that time (part of collective agreement) would lead to an insanely deep 2029 draft/IFA signing period. The chaos would be interesting if any of us still cared at that point. If MLB is closed down for 2 years I'd find it hard to care anymore. The NHL losing 1 1/2 years made me stop caring about that league (no idea who the best players are anymore).

More likely is a tighter cap, but higher. I suspect instead of dropping 10 slots you'd just lose your top pick if you are over a certain amount. Maybe even be prevented from signing free agents over a certain dollar figure should you go Dodgers with your budget (outside of resigning your own guys) - players would fight that hard, but I doubt it would be a big enough deal to keep them from playing. That would need to be a crazy high dollar figure, maybe $500 mil for team payroll (Dodgers cracked $400 last year) but would become a near cap.

If the Tigers get something insane for Skubal we'll know owners expect a nightmare coming up, and whoever gets him said 'screw it, I want a title'. The Rays would be most interesting if they do it - super smart club, they will know what is likely to happen and know a title would help them a LOT if there is a long lockout.

With Bo I'd say the Jays cut bait at the right time. After his Mets deal ends he might be nice to bring back depending how he is playing at that point. But odds are he will only come back as a 'farewell tour' type thing. Ala Gary Carter and Tim Raines with the Expos near the end of that franchise.

I don't think there's any real chance at a hard cap on the proposed terms because of that specific issue - the complexity of winding down the top teams who are well over the proposed cap. I'd suspect that they deliberately proposed such a low cap just to get the concept on the table and see if the players responded with something like "we can talk about it, but not something so stupidly low"

I doubt they will bite but I don't think even the owners imagine they could get a cap that low in their lifetimes.

As for the future, even if you said "there's no space to spend big on a free agent for the next few years" I don't think that they would be in trouble apart from the rotation.

C - set through at least '30, and potentially longer depending on how legit Valenzuela is and how the prospects come
1B - set for as long as Vlad goes until he moves to DH (say at least '32 or ;33)
2B/SS - Ernie through '28 (though it's fair to expect a decline) and Gimenez likely unmovable until '29. If Arjun and Jojo live up to their promise you have options beyond. For example, fair chance Arjun breaks camp as their SS in '28, pushes Gimenez and Clement into a 2B platoon type situation.
3B - settled through '29, Parker on track to take over in '30. If you want to spend some money to keep Kaz try to sign him to DH (mostly) and you have a safety net if Parker starts out slow.
DH - a big variable but Santander is technically under contract through '29 if he doesn't opt out.
RF - Barger is under control through '30
LF and CF are the only positions you have to consider spending any money on the rest of the decade, and you might be skilled enough to fill one or both via trade (laying aside wishing on developing guys we already have)

The bullpen has Varland, Fisher, Rogers and Fluharty under control for more years than all of them will likely be effective, and there are others in the minors one or two of which might bubble up. It's their way lately to supplement through free agency but we're not talking about huge money here.

BUT - there's a lot of moving parts in the potential rotation, particularly when there are guys who should be pushing for spots who keep getting hurt. It's not their way to rely on kids so here's where it gets cramped IF there was a severe cap. Instead of signing a horse, you'd be looking more at someone like, well, Shane Bieber or maybe Trevor Rogers.

You'd need some creativity and some better fortune in the health department. In theory there would be some internal help.

Miles could hold up and continue to impress;
Francis could be back next spring but we'd not know which one was going to show up;
Bloss and Tiedemann could be healthy next spring - or not;
Dallas and SWR might still be hanging around the margins but that's just emergency depth;
Perry, Stanifer, maybe even Thompson would be potential call-ups mid-late 2027 (though Stanifer more likely in the 'pen unless he sorts the control issue)
King might be banging on the door in early '28

Not saying you WANT to say "we got kids, we'll be fine" but IF you really had no money to solve this problem, it's not irrational to think that at least a couple of these guys end up being useful if not better.


All that rambling aside...I go back to the fact that I'd be stunned if they managed to get a hard cap that would inconvenience the Jays and if I'm wrong, I don't think lack of money will be that big a problem. Of course, all the guys they already control might not hit but that's a different question.

Players don't get paid by the owners if they don't play, correct?

If you mean they don't play because they are injured or ineffective, generally the owners still need to pay the player.

If you mean during a lockout/strike, then no the players lose the salary for the games lost (prorated) generally unless something is negotiated differently in the wrap up. The union provides some compensation funds for players during work stoppage (means a lot more for the fringe players and rookies than big money guys), but it would be nothing like the top highly paid guys get from their contracts.

Neither side make money during lock out/strike.
It's between the union and the owner majority who represent the small market teams--that is the billionaires who bought cheap teams and want to make massive capital gains.

Thanks Michael and Scott. Did anybody else read from Passan that there's the wild card option if Trump gets involved? I suppose he would be in the owners side but how would he pressure the union? Passan mentioned indirectly that clubhouses are 95% Republican which I was a bit surprised by.

The Blue Jays announce that Duane Ward has passed away. He did come to Toronto for the 92-93 ceremony but did not take part in the ceremony.

He was only 62.

Once Americans make large salaries, they tend to favor low taxes over everything else.
Ironically, it's not like Democrats raise taxes significantly for individuals.

And then, there's a minority opposed to Pride celebrations, gender affirming care and the like.
Remember Anthony Bass? Basically ended his career over the necessity of communicating his feelings on social media.

The last 3 Democratic Presidents each supported higher taxes on high earners like MLB players. Biden's proposals didn't succeed though, that part is true.

Scottt, the part that surprised be was that there was such a high majority slant when including ALL players including non American.

Ricky Tiedemann has been designated for assignment. Check that, Nate Pearson, the other bonafide can't-miss Blue Jays pitching prospect and oft injured player has been designated for assignment. I always have a soft spot for these Dustin McGowan types.

Non Americans are neither Republicans nor Democrats.
They don't vote. They are not registered anywhere.
They don't count.

Loved the Varsho AB.
Take the high fastballs and lock in on the bottom of the zone.
Appeal if the ump tries to expend the zone.

Sometimes I feel like someone should give a rookie like Keys the take sign on a 2-0 count.
90% of the time a chase pitch is coming.

I’d have thought swapping Schneider for Keys was a fairly clear roster move right now. Keys doesn’t look ready to hit major league breaking balls and should be playing every day.

Keys can't hit a curve right now so he saw 3 in his first ab. Because he was looking curve he was late on the only fb he saw.

yeah nigel, seems clear.

I think most 1B would have had that groundball by Montgomery. Keys didn’t get a good jump off the bag. He then went after the ball in a very rigid/awkward way.

Third time through the lineup for Yesavage:(

"I’d have thought swapping Schneider for Keys was a fairly clear roster move right now"

Agreed!

I am also not impressed with Keys defence at first. That ball hit to first in the fourth was a double play ball, and his reaction/glove positioning was poor. It was definitely not an easy play, but a big league first baseman needs to pick that.

ok vladdy. come on now.

Schneider for Keys or Clase makes sense but doesn't seem like it would matter too much. Team just looks like toast.

I am glad that Bieber and Trey seem sorted but I am not encouraged by this series.

Looks like 2025 may have been the outlier season

Jays have looked better the last two days. Good pitching and good defence. Managerial decisions seemed reasonable in my mind. Doubtful they can make a run with the Rays and Boston up next. Not a bad thing me thinks. Some retooling to close out 2026.

There are only 3 teams worse than the Jays in the AL right now: the A's, Royals, and Angels. Not only have the Red Sox turned things around, but the Orioles and Tigers are getting there as well. The Jays are cooked this year, unfortunately.

The guys the Jays should probably trade is Clement. They won't because he's such a great clubhouse guy and cheap but the steep defensive decline likely means he's more of a utility guy than an everyday guy in a couple of years. So still very valuable for a contender but much less valuable for a team looking to the future. Jays need to clear out some of their 2 WAR players to create some room for guys who can be better. Vlad, Kirk, and Okamoto aren't going anywhere. Gimenez and Santander would be great to move but difficult to impossible. Springer and Varsho (and a Straw) are free agents. That leaves Clement, Lukes, Barger, and Sanchez. None of those guys feel like core guys going forward to me. Barger doesn't make sense to trade because of his lost season, but move any of the rest of the guys if return is solid.

Also, re Barger, always had the idea that a really muscular body just isn't good for baseball. Maybe it's some sort of bias, but feels like being as built up as Barger is, is going to keep creating health issues.

The Red Sox have won 18 of 20

I think I know where the '25 magic went.

SP: Cease, Yesavage, Miles, Estrada, Tiedemann, Bloss, Ponce, Perry, Stanifer, Berrios.
RP: Varland, Rogers, Hoffmann, Fischer, Fluharty, Macho
OF: Clase, Lukes, Pinangio, Sanchez, Schneider, Straw, Santander
IF: Kirk, Valenzuela, Guerrero, Urias, Okamoto, Gimenez, Clement, McAdoo, Keys

Lots of potential for a DH from that group. Of course there will be additions and subtractions from this list.

It's not dark yet, but it's getting there

Sell. Sell some more. Then sell anything not nailed down. This season is done, lockout may be coming..

This is not a bad roster to build from. The Jays certainly need some security in the starting pitching area, but that should be available to them. The team must find out what they have in the outfield before next year. The infield has lots of depth. Lots of moving parts all over the field. SP is the obvious place to begin.

Will Brick signed. $2.5M
Ties record for position player chosen after the third

Jays apparently have about $65k left to (presumably) try to sign that other high schooler

So Brick for $2.5 mil, Carlton for $2.4 mil, rounds 5-10 signed cheaply - $210.23k. Big fish left is Ryan Cooney round 2 - cap of $762.9k, but lord knows what he wants (ranked a touch lower than drafted so shouldn't be pushing for much more). Rounds 11-20 have just 1 guy ranked - round 18 Jake McCoy Ranked #152 (that pick in the draft had a $472.50k cap value, but post round 10 the cap is $150k, anything above that comes out of the cap the team has. If the Jays spend 5% over their cap they are OK, but no more than that. No team has every spent more than 5% over to date so I doubt anyone will start now. Based on the draft page at MLB.com the Jays have $5,541,400 to spend, add 5% and you are at $5,818,470. They've spent $5,110,230 leaving $708,240 for Cooney (max) and anyone in rounds 11-20 who they are willing to give more than $150k to (maybe McCoy). So Cooney could get close to his cap, but not over. Doubt they sign McCoy unless he really wants to go pro right now (given he is 21 imo he has to decide if he wants to be a pro-ballplayer or whatever his major in college is). If McCoy doesn't sign the Jays are in trouble as they'd be over the cap (they'd lose his $762.9k plus the 5% over) and I doubt they would do that. So odds are Cooney has a deal in place, they just haven't announced it yet.

If one assumes a lockout and that 2027 might be in danger and feel the Jays of '26 aren't worth investing more in, then who should be traded?

• Free agent post 26: Springer, Gausman, Bieber, Varsho, Garcia, Scherzer, Corbin, Straw (team options for '27 and '28)
• Post 27: Sanchez, Hoffman
• Post 28: Berrios, Rogers (option), Ponce, Yariel Rodriguez

So that is who is on the 'should trade if '26 is written off' list. Some are untradable (Berrios) others are popular locally thus hard to deal (Springer, Gausman), but the others are up for auction I'd think. Bieber is starting to show enough (mixed with his pedigree) that he could get a bidding war going. I'd be 100% shocked if Rogers was traded. 0% if Hoffman is.

So the Jays have a couple of valuable trade pieces. Now they are 4 1/2 back of the 3rd WC and 7 games sub 500, tied with Houston and Detroit. In a 3 way tie for 8th worst in MLB, 1/2 a game from 7th worst, 4 'back' of 6th and 5th worse, 4 1/2 back of 4th worst (Mets). So they are as close to being 4th worst in MLB as they are to the playoffs. Yuck. I want to believe, but if I was Atkins I'd be ready to press 'sell' shortly - by the end of the Tampa series (4 games) they will know - lose the series or get swept and it is over. Win or sweep and some hope lives, split and lord knows.

"Big fish left is Ryan Cooney round 2 - cap of $762.9k, "

Cooney signed.

$597,500

Maybe I'm too skeptical about value for trades, but I also recognize that there's so much uncertainty about how many teams will sell that it's possible nominal values might get inflated due to a forced scarcity.

Gausman - three turns left before the deadline, would have to impress scouts that (like last year) he's shaken off a bad June and is on track for a good second half

Bieber - 2 more starts, similarly he has to pitch well in both

Scherzer - won't be healthy in time

Hoffman - I'm a little skeptical but there's every chance they will get their best offer for him and not be willing to say no. (Maybe something involving Jett Williams if they think he can be a quality CF?)

Garcia - similarly, no one should count on him

Corbin - fringy return if anything (which might still turn out nice, but not someone any of us have heard of now. That kid they got for Seabold has shown well early)

Little - if anyone thinks they can fix him?

Springer - if he's convinced anyone with his .753 OPS in his last 38 games? I could see a team like the Braves thinking decent offense and vet leadership might be an asset. He'd have to agree to it (5/10)

Varsho - the horrific offense since he hurt the wrist really drags him down, but while he's no longer a premium CF, the Phillies, Astros, White Sox, Rays, and Marlins all might see him as an upgrade. A Hot streak would help

Straw - not going to get a premium return but a confident contender would like to improve at the margins.

Sanchez - again, a marginal add but a team with a need at DH as well as some outfield reps - Cleveland for example - could be interested

Gimenez - I don't know how, but it would be deeply stupid to pass on any opportunity

Lukes? Doesn't seem like they'd particularly want to but I could see there being teams that would find him interesting.

They'll get calls on Clement but that would be REALLY ballsy.

Could be as many as 6 or 7 deals out of that group IF Ross is cold-blooded enough to go full-reset.

Rogers might get a really good return.. If 2027 is a write-off, you'd be holding on to him for 1 year..

Varland would have to be like 3 top-100 prospects or something.

Add Vlad to the untradeable list. Right now, my bet is you couldn't give him away with that contract.

Clement is absolutely a logical trade piece due to his age and where the team is (plus his diminishing defensive ability), but there's a better chance of MLB labor peace and no lockout this December than there is of the Jays even entertaining the idea of trading Ernie. Given the FO's track record, I'd be moderately surprised if anyone other than the impending FA's are traded.

It's not who you trade, it's who you get back.
Trades are often used to reduce expenses rather than bring significant returns.

The 2024 sell off was remarkable, but the biggest return has been Wagner but only because he was turned into Valenzuela. 
Pinango has brought some marginal upside but was part of the return for Nate Pearson. Not exactly an asset sale.

Trading players to open playing times for AAA guys would make sense.

Regardless, the team could heat up late in August/September and they should do nothing to prevent that.

The 2024 deadline was great in terms of value but think the Jays also made a philosophical mistake (and said so at the time) where they should have gone for a mix of close to majors guys and far off guys and instead went only close to majors. The Jays have a lot of OK players. They need to take some home run swings at guys who have a chance to be stars sometimes. If Jays do decide to sell, the good news is that it is likely to be an excellent sellers market. Very few teams are going to be selling and most don't have a lot to deal. Gausman and Bieber might both be able to fetch some very good prospects.

There's also the very unpopular, extremely unlikely and eye rolling idea of trading good young prospects and eating a ton of money to bring in immediate and transformative players like Mike Trout and Byron Buxton. Sure it would require a waiving of a no trade clause but if the offer is good and your team comes to you and tells you they don't want you then you're likely to waive that clause.

https://x.com/mike_petriello/status/2079244781893349487?s=20

This is it in a nutshell.

Exactly, but, if those guys starts producing at last year's level for a couple of months, they're easily in the playoffs.

The problem with selling starting pitching is that they are struggling to get 5 innings from anyone right now.
They can't just put a guy in and make him throw 120 pitches over 5 innings.
There would be a complete meltdown.

When you say easily in the playoffs do you mean the real playoffs or the Wild Card or the fake wild card? In any of those events do you think they have any real chance to progress past the wild card round with their current offensive team?

The FO should have expected Springer to fall back to earth and also should have expected Vlad to fall back if he didn't have enough protection or elite bat like Bo hitting around him.

The FO should have traded for a bat after failing to add Tucker and Bo and they definitely should have traded for a bat after learning Santander was injured and they most definitely should have traded for a bat when they learned Barger was injured and absolutely they should trade for a bat now that...wait, no they've lost their chance now.

Especially when you see all the bats that were traded before now.