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Yep, we got him.

$15.5M deal for 1 year. No deferrals. Pending a physical.

Max Scherzer will be the first HOF lock on the team in a looooong time (sorry, Vlad doesn't qualify yet). Seems like the last one was Roy Halladay. Max is a lock with 3 Cy's, 216 wins, 5 more times in the top 5 for Cy voting. For such a great pitcher kind of odd the Jays will be his 7th team. 7 years in Washington, 5 Detroit - he will go in the HOF as one of those 2. Drafted by the Cardinals out of high school (43rd round) but didn't sign. Arizona took him later in the first round (11th overall) way back in 2006 - 3 picks later the Jays took Travis Snider who many here will remember. Max isn't the best of that round though - Clayton Kershaw leads with 79.4 bWAR, then Max at 75.4, then Evan Longoria at 58.6 - all taken in the first 11 picks. Brandon Morrow was the 5th pick (by Seattle).

BR projects Max at a 6-5 record over 97 IP 3.71 ERA. FG Steamer has him at a 2.1 fWAR over 128 IP 3.97 ERA, ZiPS has him at 1.4 WAR over 107 IP with a 103 ERA+. I'd say the rotation is now set with Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Scherzer-Francis and a pen of Hoffman-Green-Garcia-Swanson-Sandlin-Little-Rodriguez and the final slot a big battle for Nance-Pop-Burr-and whoever else is in camp.

As others have said in the other thread - he is one of the best to ever pitch here, should he be healthy enough to. In HOF: Halladay (earned it here)-Niekro (0 wins here sadly)-Clemens* (2 pitcher triple crowns here in 2 years, worthy of HOF except by PED moralizing writers)-Jack Morris (ugh) - damn good guys who were close to HOF careers - Dave Stieb (should've won a few Cy's, deserves more HOF consideration imo)-David Wells (53 WAR, 15 of that here)-Jimmy Key and tons of others who were damn good for a few years (Hentgen especially with a Cy here, Carpenter who won a Cy after being developed here).
Mad Max time | 195 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:08 PM EST (#456350) #
Nice. After Verlander signed, I had this to say here: "If you like Verlander, Scherzer is still available. I get the "raise the floor" argument for Quintana but would prefer to raise the ceiling with Scherzer. He'd be worth a lot more if healthy at the deadline."

If he's only making 15M it tells you what the market thinks about his stuff/health, but it's a good move nonetheless. Not the frontline SP I was hoping for, but a good roll of the dice for just cash. If they can get 100-150 innings out of him, boom.
Eephus - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:09 PM EST (#456351) #
As I said in the other thread, when/if he throws a pitch for the team he'll immediately be one of the best pitchers career-wise to ever do so. Halladay, Stieb, Clemens... Jack Morris? Frank Viola? Henke? Mad Max would be a Top 5 without a doubt I think.
John Northey - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:14 PM EST (#456352) #
Agreede Eephus - as I've added to the article, wanted to get it up quickly so we could talk about him here. He'll be the 5th HOF'er to pitch here I think (could've missed someone but I don't think I did). Niekro was at the end here, sad that he didn't get more of a shot (was at his first game as a Jay and it was fun to watch him, sadly Jimy Williams had no clue what to do with a knuckleball pitchers - that they need TONS of innings and to be used often as he left him on the bench for 10 days at a time).
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:16 PM EST (#456354) #
Projected payroll for Blue Jays 2025 post Mad Max signing

273,000,000

Thresholds
241,000,000
261,000,000 *currently past
281,000,000
301,000,000
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:21 PM EST (#456355) #
Realistically, is this it for Blue Jays signings this off-season? Or are they going to make one more splash?

Sometimes-accurate Hector Gomez saying that more good news will be coming for Blue Jays fans. Meaning...?
John Northey - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:29 PM EST (#456356) #
Just 2 things left - either sign Alonso and/or sign Vlad long term. Nothing much else outside of a big trade.
John Northey - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:31 PM EST (#456357) #
Cot's with Max included has the Jays at $267,230,535 for luxury tax purposes. So an Alonso signing would push them up to the final threshold (roughly $30 mil based on rumors). A long term $40 mil per deal for Vlad would push them to the edge of #3.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:33 PM EST (#456358) #
I assume a Vlad extension would start in 2026 (to preserve some payroll space for 2025).
JohnL - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:34 PM EST (#456359) #
John: He'll be just the fourth HOFer to pitch here. You seem to have installed Clemens ahead of the voters ;-)
John Northey - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:36 PM EST (#456360) #
Oops, I always mess that up - Clemens was such a dead on lock. Makes no sense to me that the voters who were hyping up the PED users like mad in '98 thus leading to Clemens and Bonds both saying 'screw it' now moralize on it.
John Northey - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:42 PM EST (#456361) #
So 12 of 13 slots I'd say are locked in stone for the pitching staff, the lineup?
  • C: Kirk/Heineman; 1B: Vlad; 2B: Giménez; 3B: Clement; SS: Bo; LF: Santander; CF: Varsho (when healthy); RF: Springer; DH: ???
  • Backups/DH: take your pick of Jimenez (2B/SS/3B), Schneider (2B/LF), Straw (CF - super unlikely if his pay doesn't count against the payroll right now), Loperfido (OF), Clase (OF), Berroa (OF), Lukes (OF), Orelvis Martinez (2B/3B/SS)
Yeah, Alonso really would look good right now as the 1B/DH with Vlad as 3B/DH/1B in some rotation with Clement mixed in. That'd lock down the team nicely for 2025.
bpoz - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:03 PM EST (#456362) #
I am blown away by the Max Scherzer signing. The Jays chose to overspend for 2025. So 2025 is not a rebuild which I once speculated about. Also 2025 is a minor youth movement rather than a major one IMO.

So no more talk it seems about us being out of it at the trade deadline. Scherzer is solid depth for the rotation. I am getting 2013 vibes at the moment.
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:06 PM EST (#456363) #
I’d expect another bat even if it’s not Alonso or Bregman, though I think the chances of one of them have increased a bit with this signing. A Vladdy extension if it happens will take effect in 2026 so I’m guessing Alonso would be the FO’s preference since they could sign him and hope he opts out after year 1, which would clear payroll room to reload again next winter.
JB21 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:23 PM EST (#456364) #
Couldn't agree more.
Nigel - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:29 PM EST (#456365) #
As I've said elsewhere, I don't totally understand the previous deals (Santander and Gimenez) in a world in which you aren't resigning either or both of Vlad or Bo. But this signing absolutely works in any circumstance and this is the exact swing for the fences for 2025 that they needed to do. Now, if they resign Vlad and move on from Bo, whether by his choice or theirs (after the season or at the trade deadline), then they will have had a pretty thoughtfully executed offseason.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:47 PM EST (#456366) #
Nigel you make it seem like its normal to run a payroll of sub 100 million if they can't resign Vlad and Bo. It's really not normal to spend like the bottom feeders because you don't have stars signed long term. I much prefer they add talent like Santander and Gimenez than not under any circumstance. Spending half a billion or more on two young players doesn't change that, does it?
Nigel - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:58 PM EST (#456367) #
There's no chance that the Jays would run a sub $100m payroll in 2026. That's not even what I've been remotely suggesting.
scottt - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 08:20 PM EST (#456368) #
I wonder if they'll do some kind of Thunder Dome promo.

The current roster is good enough for me.
I wouldn't mind a right bat that mashes against lefties, but it's probably better to get someone to steal ABs from Springer.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 08:22 PM EST (#456369) #
" I don't totally understand the previous deals (Santander and Gimenez) in a world in which you aren't resigning either or both of Vlad or Bo."

You're relating Vlad and Bo not signing to two other players signed for 5 more years. Why don't you understand those signings and trades existing in a world without Vlad and Bo? It suggests not signing or trading for those players based on their salary, so take away Vlad, Bo, Santander, Gimenez for 2026. Take out Gauseman and Bassit snd Springer and more after that. You're essentially saying "resign Vlad and Bo" or don't spend money to compete, correct?
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 08:39 PM EST (#456370) #
Nightingale tweet after the signing: “$15.5 million….and still have interest in signing 1B Pete Alonso if he doesn’t return to the Mets.”
uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 08:49 PM EST (#456371) #
Nigel you see a thoughtfully executed offseason.....i see them throwing money at the problem in any way they can.....

....and i heartily approve.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 09:41 PM EST (#456372) #
AL EAST

NYY - 87 * Division
BOS - 84 ** WC
BAL - 84 ** WC
TB - 83.5
TOR - 83

AL CENTRAL

MIN - 92 * Division
KC - 81
DET - 81
CLE - 77
CWS - 63

AL WEST

TEX - 85 Division
HOU - 84 ** WC
SEA - 82
LAA - 76
OAK - 76

----------

NL East
ATL - 93 * Division
PHI - 87 ** WC
NYM - 87 **WC
WAS - 76
FLA - 72

NL Central
CHC - 83 * Division
STL - 82
MIL - 81
PIT - 79
CIN - 78

NL West
LAD - 94 * Division
AZ - 86 ** WC
SFG - 82
SD - 82
COL - 64
mathesond - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 10:29 PM EST (#456373) #
I usually take the optimistic view on their trades and signings, but for some reason I get a Jack Morris/Dave Stewart vibe from this signing. Granted, it looks like he slots in as a #4 starter, unlike Morris and Stewart, nevertheless I fear his numbers will be disappointing relative to expectations.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 10:35 PM EST (#456374) #
I don’t think there’s any mystifying rhyme or reason to the sudden spending which is why I said in October (and began to walk back, until the Jeff Hoffman signing) that we are about to enter unprecedented spending. The most obvious reason is that this team needs to make the playoffs this year or Shapiro and Atkins are both gone. It was true last June when it became obvious the team stunk and it is true now with it becoming clear the Jays have a good chance to be good if not great in ‘25. I couldn’t be happier. If this team is able to to pull off a Bregman or an Alonso, it will have done what they should have been doing ever since those losses in the playoffs which is act like a huge market team…because they are.
uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 10:51 PM EST (#456375) #
yep, and not just about making the playoffs but crucially about not suffering the disaster of losing vladdy.

so much at stake for this franchise right now. glad they realize it.
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 10:54 PM EST (#456376) #
From Hector Gomez: “SOURCE: Talks between the #BlueJays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are flowing satisfactorily regarding a possible contract extension. The Jays are getting closer to what Vladdy Jr. is looking for.”
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 11:03 PM EST (#456377) #
Rogers being willing to spend this much, and possibly more if Alonso is next, is a good sign moving forward regardless of how 2025 ends up. You can really see the potential this franchise has if they ever get to a point where they are developing talent well.
92-93 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 11:08 PM EST (#456378) #
The Jays O/U win total moved from 76.5 to 78.5 tonight. WAR in action.
Kelekin - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 11:15 PM EST (#456379) #
Glad to see the Scherzer signing and the team spending.

I'm still not optimistic our aging/declining rotation holds up, and we're not well served for a 3 game series, but we definitely are in with a chance.
Marc Hulet - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 09:13 AM EST (#456380) #
Yeah the signing is ok - much needed depth... Scherzer should bring some fire and inspiration to the pitchers but he's a fragile No. 4 starter at this point.

I'm fairly confident Vladdy will get done by the spring deadline but I'm skeptical that Alonso or Bregman are happening at this point.

The former would be a better fit for the lineup (pure masher) and from a contract length perspective (even if they added a 4th year) but the latter just doesn't improve the offensive enough to lock in for $28Mx6 or whatever it would take to get it over the finish line.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 09:40 AM EST (#456381) #
I really like this move! The team has ratcheted up the injury risk, but there is definitely a path to contention. Gotta love that!

The flip side, if things do go sideways (which I absolutely don’t want to see) the team is also set up to be massive sellers at the deadline which could help the system make an even bigger jump than last year.

One way or another, we’re all in for an entertaining season.
Marc Hulet - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 10:10 AM EST (#456382) #
That's the big thing for ownership... this team will now sell a lot more tickets (and just hope the team doesn't stumble out of the gate).

They have a very tough first two months with only two series against non-contenders. The other four AL East teams have noticeably easier schedules with Baltimore probably having the easiest.
mendocino - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 10:17 AM EST (#456383) #
https://www.tsn.ca/scott-mitchell-top-50-toronto-blue-jays-prospects-of-2025-1.2244625

Scott Mitchell (TSN) Top 50
scottt - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 10:22 AM EST (#456384) #
They will have to DFA someone. Probably a pitcher.
Then Manoah and Bastardo will go to he 60 IL until late in the year.
Nance and Pop are out of options and that last slot should end up with guys who can be optioned before long anyway.
Varsho, is also on the IL for a couple of months.
So, they could promote a guy and pick another on waivers.

The bench should be Heineman, Jimenez and a couple of outfielders, at least one of them a right bat.
There's a competition for DH, with Wagner probably in the lead and a left bat playing most of CF.

John Northey - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 11:01 AM EST (#456385) #
Thanks mendocino for the TSN link - I try to keep track of top 30/50 lists from assorted sources but it can be a pain as there are so many. Obviously cannot afford to subscribe to all the assorted sites (BP, BA, Athletic, etc.) so that limits it too. Ah, to be in my 20's with no kids and no commitments beyond a car payment and mortgage. Neither of those now in my 50's but I do have 4 kids who are far more expensive.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 11:29 AM EST (#456386) #
Steve Phillips commented that he wondered if Max Scherzer would have signed with the Jays if he didn't think that either Alonso or Bregman was going to be signed as well.

Bob Nightingale, on the other hand, thinks Alonso will land back with the Mets and that if Bregman doesn't go back to Houston, that he will end up in Detroit or Boston.

If the Jays sign Vlad to an extension, then I would consider it a good offseason, although I still don't see the team breaking much more than .500. A lot depends on what version of Bo Bichette we see this year, and if the team adds another bat.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 11:51 AM EST (#456387) #
I'm on board with the consensus that Alonso would be the better signing of the two (other bring Bregman).

Agree Max is okay but good signing.

Marc I think Vlad signs too. Wouldn't it be completely unexpected and awesome if Bo re-upped also?

Sucks to resign Vlad to be the third highest paid player in MLB when he isn't the third best player but that's what happens when you don't sign him during down years I guess. Gotta love that Tatis contract and I never ever anticipated that deal or 700 million for any player later.
uglyone - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 12:03 PM EST (#456388) #
"I usually take the optimistic view on their trades and signings, but for some reason I get a Jack Morris/Dave Stewart vibe from this signing."

I scanned past this comment yesterday - but it stuck in my head and i couldn't figure out why.

And then I realized today that it's because you were describing Morris/Stewart as BAD signings.....when i've always thought they were good ones.

We knew we weren't signing prime Morris or Stewart, but they both were very solid SP for us and key to those teams' winning. Morris was better regular season than playoffs, Stewart better playoffs than regular season, but both were good mid-rotation starters for us that we couldn't have gone without.

For me, getting a Morris/Stewart vibe from this can only be a good thing.


Unfortunately, i'm a bit more worried about Scherzer's health than consistent workhorses like Morris/Stewart.
mathesond - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 12:21 PM EST (#456389) #
I wouldn't say that I thought Morris/Stewart were bad signings, but rather that they didn't live up to the expectations we had of them as top of the rotation starters. I understand that Max is slotted in as the #4 guy, but I just don't see him moving the needle as much as we'd like.
johnny was - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 12:41 PM EST (#456390) #
It's a quirky bit of Jays trivia that Morris was the first 20 game winner in franchise history. Our defense in 1992 wasn't up to the standard he had in DET or for that one great year in MIN and he deserved better than an ERA of about 4, but on the other hand he was absolutely terrible throughout the playoffs. Walks and homers galore and a couple of undignified early exits. Giving him a multiyear deal was obviously a mistake, but there were much bigger problems for the team after 1993.

In the grander scheme, Morris is the Harold Baines of pitchers and someone undeserving of a spot in the Hall of Fame. I was at game 5 of the '92 WS, homerun territory in the 500 level behind left field, and he ruined my childhood (jk?) by giving up a grand slam to Lonnie Smith while I was in a long McDonalds line with my best friend. You never forgive an offense like this. I can't imagine what it'd have been like to see them clinch the first one at home...

uglyone - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 12:51 PM EST (#456391) #
I always thought that the depictions of Morris/Stewart as frontline SP when we signed them were more about our insecurity as market in not appreciating how good our own homegrown talent like Key Guzman Hentgen were.

I don't think that any stats back then would have shown that either should have been considered the best or even 2nd best SP on the staff when they signed.

Except of course Morris' legendary IP stats.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 12:55 PM EST (#456392) #
"I understand that Max is slotted in as the #4 guy, but I just don't see him moving the needle as much as we'd like."

How much do you want to move the needle and are you willing to pay Jack Flaherty to do it? Aside from that you need Scherzer and an Alonso type to "move the needle past 4 WAR.

uglyone - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 01:22 PM EST (#456393) #
thing is, signing a "good #4" IS a needle-mover for us. we needed it.
pooks137 - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 01:25 PM EST (#456394) #
The best thing about the Scherzer signing is that it pushes guys like Rodriguez out of the Opening Day rotation and lengthens the SP depth chart. Even if Max can't be counted on for a whole season's worth of starts.

I saw elsewhere that Shi Davidi claims that Rodriguez has a clause in his contract that he can't be optioned to the minors for 2025 & subsequent years.

If so, that makes it a lot harder to stretch him out as a 6th starter if he's chained to the MLB bullpen for the whole year.
Ryan Day - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 01:46 PM EST (#456395) #
Given that you probably can't rely on Scherzer for a full season, you could do a sort of Scherzer-Rodriguez combo - try for 5 innings from Scherzer & 3-4 from Rodriguez; maybe Scherzer skips a start every few weeks & Rodriguez fills in. That could keep Rodriguez ready to step in as a starter if/when needed.
John Northey - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 01:49 PM EST (#456396) #
So what was added/subtracted so far? Via FanGraphs, guys in brackets are non-factors imo (Buffalo churn) and one could argue the same for some of the guys I kept - numbers in brackets are projected WAR (steamer).
  • Added: Scherzer (2.0), Santander (2.7), Hoffman (0.9), Garcia (0.6), Gimenez (3.5), Sandlin (0.1), (Kloffenstein, Bethancourt, Lovelady, Walker, Sanchez, Lauer, Gowdy, Stefanic, Bastardo, Peterson, Straw)
  • Cut: Romano (0.3), Tate (0.0), Cabrera (0.0), Yarborough (0.0), Horwitz (1.8), (E Ramirez, Frias, Eisert, deGaus, Mitchell, Danner, Raposo, DeLosSantos)
So net add = 9.8, Cut = 2.1; net gain = 7.7 add to 74 wins and you have 81.7 wins - so all those changes and cash shift this team from a sub 500 to a 500 club. But... we all know Bo should do better, Vlad worse, Springer should be better, Gausman and Bassitt both should be better, Francis hopefully more than a 1 WAR pitcher as well. Mix those in and this club should contend for a wild card at least. Get some of that luck that always evades us and anything is possible. Runs for/against says the Jays are within 1 win each year outside of '21 when they should've won 99 (but got 91 and no playoffs), +3 in '20 to get in the playoffs, 2019 -4 (made no diff), 2018 +4 (again, no diff), 2017 +4 (no diff), 2016 -2 (made playoffs anyways), 2015 -9 (still won division but should've won 102). Get a +9 for once and things change drastically (ala the Rays in '08 who were +5 vs Jays that year -7, in a fair world the Jays make the playoffs instead by 1 adding to Cito's legend).

Ah well, enough on the speculation of the past. Lets look forward - a RH slugger who can DH (ideally mix in at 3B/1B and/or LF) is what the Jays want now. Bregman, Alonso obviously ideal but might be unrealistic as both want to go back home, others out there are Randal Grichuk (projected 100-109 wRC+), Justin Turner (90-108 range), Mark Canha (96-105), J.D. Martinez (101-107) and many others. To be honest, none of those guys seem interesting to me outside of a spring invite. Weird that Grichuk might be the best hitter left after the big 2 - he'd be useful as a 4th OF/DH possibly - had a 151 wRC+ vs LHP last year (nice), 121 lifetime. So he might work mixed at DH with Wagner handed some OF time to give our regulars a rest, etc. At this point of the winter he must be desperate for a contract too. Weird, never thought I'd think he would be good to bring back but here we are.
bpoz - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 01:56 PM EST (#456397) #
You need 6,7 or 8 SPs in a season. So we got that.
Ryan Day - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 02:48 PM EST (#456398) #
I don't think that any stats back then would have shown that either should have been considered the best or even 2nd best SP on the staff when they signed.

Morris pitched one of the greatest world series games in history the year before, and had shut down the Jays on his way there. Stewart was also a WS MVP, and had slapped the Jays around around in the playoffs in 92 & 89. There was definitely a sense that they, like Winfield & Molitor, were the polished pieces that would put the team over the top.
scottt - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 03:06 PM EST (#456399) #
Grichuk is actually very solid against lefties. He's a very decent bench bat, assuming the manager knows when to pinch hit.
mathesond - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 03:28 PM EST (#456400) #
Maybe you folks are right. I might be letting the fact that I'm living through a terrible country music song (wife died/got laid/landlord wants me to move out without cause) affect my outlook. Perhaps I should view the signing as a beacon in an otherwise gloomy time.
mathesond - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 03:29 PM EST (#456401) #
That should read 'got laid off'. Talk about yer Freudian lingerie!
John Northey - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 03:33 PM EST (#456402) #
mathesond - I find looking at bright sides of things helps in dark times (wife died just over 10 years ago, leaving 4 daughters and me so lots of headaches in the recent past - felt a need to move due to an assortment of issues, could go on, lots of country music songs here). I hope you are getting help with those headaches in your life. Life can be rough, finding ways to bounce back and survive is critical. Part of what I love about baseball - so many stories of players doing that, bouncing back.
greenfrog - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 05:24 PM EST (#456403) #
Accordingly to Bob Nightengale's latest piece in USA Today, Bregman is likely headed for one of three teams (Houston, Detroit, Boston), with the Cubs as a dark horse possibility if Bregman is willing to sign a short-term contract.

He also says Alonso is likely headed back to the NYM: "The Toronto Blue Jays really have been Alonso’s only serious suitor outside the Mets, and if Alonso really wanted to sign there, or anywhere else on a short-term deal, it likely would have happened already."

greenfrog - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 05:35 PM EST (#456404) #
* According (not accordingly) … dang autocorrect

Mathesond: sorry to hear you are going through all of those things.
soupman - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 06:41 PM EST (#456405) #
This is the FA crop at first next year:

Vlad
Goldy
Josh Naylor
Carlos Santana
Max Muncy
Wilmer Flores
Evan White

The Yankees and Mets have no one signed in 2026 to play 1B. I suspect the lack of Vlad extension is holding up Alonso's decision to return to Queens.
John Northey - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 06:51 PM EST (#456406) #
Wonder what the Jays are planning as plan 1, 2, 3, etc. right now?
  1. Sign Bregman to be 3B, Vlad is still 1B, DH is mix match to give days off and Clement in infield, Lukes or whoever in OF
  2. Sign Alonso to be 1B, Vlad at 3B, both get 20-40 DH games, Clement at 3B often, lots of mix/match situations to try to keep solid defense despite obvious issues - Schneider earns his pay this way
  3. Clement 3B, Vlad 1B, find someone else (trade/whatever is left in FA) to be a RH bat in a semi-platoon at DH with Wagner or another kid (open spring battle for that slot between Wagner, Loperfido and whoever else)
  4. Clement 3B, Vlad 1B, pray Wagner or Schneider or someone is ready to be DH.
Option 1 is expensive - 6 years, $28.5+ per year (he is reported as not wanting his average pay to go down from 2024).

Option 2 is also expensive - 3 years, $30 mil per is rumored to be what it'll take

Option 3 is probably cheap, I listed Randal Grichuk above as an option - should be available on a 1 year deal at this point for sub $10 mil.

Option 4 is basically free - uses what is here already, but lord knows if it will work.
Glevin - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 07:28 PM EST (#456407) #
I still like the trade route. 3B is biggest issue I think. The issue I have with Clement is that his value at 3B (good D) isn't really what the Jays need. Would much rather have an average fielder who's a better hitter even at same WAR. Neither Alonso (position) or Bregman (length and size of contract) are great fits for Toronto. Reds make a ton of sense for me. They have like 3 3Bman (Steer, Marte, CES). Maybe Jays can do something there.

Jays could get another corner Of too but Jays do have a lot of CO depth in minors so I think less needed.
Marc Hulet - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 09:16 PM EST (#456408) #
I really don't see Bregman as realistic. Everything I read suggests he's even less inclined to play for Toronto than Alonso. The only thing keeping them in the conversation is Boras and leverage.
JohnL - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 09:17 PM EST (#456409) #
@mathesond: So sorry to hear about your great loss. Hope remembering all the good times you had together will help you through the tough times.

As for the job, I really did wonder about the "getting laid" problem.
vw_fan17 - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 09:23 PM EST (#456410) #
@mathesond Sorry to hear about your sorrows. Hopefully you have good family/friends to help you through.
John Northey - Friday, January 31 2025 @ 09:56 PM EST (#456411) #
The rumors seem to suggest the Jays are the non-Houston team to offer Bregman 6 years (wouldn't shock me - they know they need to add years to get people). But those same ones say he wants $200 mil over those 6 years - $33 mil a year. Ouch. No way I'd go that far. Given the Jays spending this winter I'd suspect they are closer to 6/$150 ($25 mil per) which makes a lot more sense. They might be willing to make it 6/$200 where a chunk is deferred thus reducing present value to the $150 range.

For Alonso most feel it is purely a Jays vs Mets situation where he is using the Jays to get the Mets to pay more. He is in eyeshot of the Mets all-time HR record (Strawberry 252 vs Alonso 226 in 3rd behind Wright's 242) which I'm sure is a big draw, every player wants all-time records of some kind. If he comes here there is no chance of reaching Delgado's 336, especially if Vlad re-ups long term (then he'll claim that title at some point, currently #8 with 160, could get as high as #5 Joe Carter with 43 HR this year). Regardless, Alonso has 3/$70 on the table it seems, so that is the minimum to get him, I'm betting 3/$90 is what the Jays would need to offer with opt-outs mixed in.
electric carrot - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 09:45 AM EST (#456412) #
"I'm living through a terrible country music song"

Ugh mathesond -- sorry to hear that about your wife and the shitstorm that followed. We live in a time with profound empathy deficit -- landlords/bosses/political will -- it sucks to be an actual human being sometimes. But you clearly still have a sense of humor -- and better than those replicants who are making life so hard.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 11:17 AM EST (#456413) #
Jays are reportedly offering just shy of $30M per year for Bregman. Not sure about referrals or opt outs... still hoping that doesn't happen. I've heard the Jays with the six-year offer for about a week now so I'm pretty sure it's legit... but Bregman has also been sitting on it for awhile.
SK in NJ - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 11:52 AM EST (#456414) #
The Astros apparently offered Bregman 6yrs/$156M early in the winter and it was turned down. If that offer still exists then I would imagine the Jays would have to go somewhere close to 6yrs/$180M to have a shot. Otherwise there are too many benefits for Bregman to stay where he is (familiarity, tax advantages, etc). I agree, it’s a contract that the team signing him will regret in a couple of years. Maybe the defense will remain effective enough to where he’s not as much of an albatross, especially if he can play multiple positions during that time, but a 6 year deal covers ages 31-36. It’s likely going to get ugly quick, especially if his decline phase actually began already.

Alonso is the better scenario to me, even if it means a lot of Vladdy at third. Shorter term, adds a dimension the team lacks (home runs), and multiple opt outs will keep him motivated.
John Northey - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 01:35 PM EST (#456415) #
Let's look at the last 2 3B the Jays imported...
  • Josh Donaldson: age 29-32, MVP year 1, arguably better year 2 (higher OPS+), then injuries started age 31, collapsed age 32 and was dumped. Was damn good ages 33,35 decent at 36 (2.2 bWAR) but missed most of age 34. cliff dove at 37 (0.1 bWAR) and retired, not by choice.
  • Matt Chapman: arrived age 29, stayed for 30, left. 3.6 and 4.4 bWAR, very solid. 7.1 for SF at 31 and now has a deal though age 37 at $25.17 mil a year
Other past Jay 3B...
  • Troy Glaus: ages 29-30, 4.3, 3.3 bWAR, had 3 more years in him just good for 31 (4.4) then 0 net WAR over 32/33.
  • Scott Rolen: ages 33-34 3.4, 3.9 bWAR (just 88 g here in year 2 before traded for EE). Solid at 35, OK at 36 (1.6 bWAR in 65 G), surviving at 37 but injuries just too much and retired.
  • Edwin Encarnación: yes, he was a 3B when he came at age 26, but by 29 was a full time DH/1B, we all know how big he was here
  • José Bautista: arrived at 27 as a 3B but quickly was moved to the OF where he thrived. MVP type up to age 34, then collapse at 35, just 1.5 bWAR from 35-37.
  • Corey Koskie: came with such hope at 32, a 116 OPS+ lifetime, but only had 2 years left. 1.4 bWAR here, then dumped and 1.1 in Milwaukee (retirement home for old Jays) who paid the remaining $12 mil on his contract (phew).
  • Eric Hinske: traded for when ready for majors at 24 with a ROY 4.0 performance. Here until 28 then dumped. Just 3.9 bWAR after his rookie season, 1.9 of that in year 2.
  • Tony Batista: traded for at 25, did fantastic at SS so of course they moved him to 3B for Alex Gonzalez #1, TONS of power, no plate discipline. Dumped at 27, done at 33. 6.0 WAR here, 7.8 elsewhere.
  • Tony Fernández: 1998/99 - was hitting 400 in June of 99, in Japan in 00. His age 36/37 were freaky good (over 6 WAR combined) but check the year and you might guess why. That 98 team had Canseco & Clemens on it after all.
  • Ed Sprague: home grown - here ages 23-30, 5.8 total WAR. Never that good, but that HR in the WS will never be forgotten (he was worth 20.6% cWPA that series thanks entirely to that HR). He was an all-star at 31 for Pittsburgh despite being worth just 0.2 bWAR. Done at 33
  • Kelly Gruber: rule 5 pick at 22, at 26 he became something special, 2 years of 5+ WAR, then a 4, then the neck issues. released after 92 at age 30, played at 31, tried a comeback at 35 but didn't get up to the majors again.
  • Rance Mulliniks: came at 26 in what Gillick said was his most forgettable trade. 120's OPS+ often from 27-34 in a platoon role. kept kicking until 36 when he sat on the bench for the first Jays WS title.
  • Garth Iorg: shared 3B with Mulliniks - never a good hitter outside of '85, just 3.5 bWAR lifetime, 72 OPS+, finished his career and the Jays season in '87 with a pathetic, sad, PA while many better hitters were on the bench at age 32.
  • Danny Ainge - see NBA
  • Roy Howell - damn good player, here at 23-26 9.3 bWAR, over 2 each year but never reached 3. Never had 2 in a season anywhere else. Done at 30. Very odd to be as good as he was as young as he was and still end so fast.
Funny, didn't intend to go through that many, but it just was too fun going through old memories. Yeah, I've been at games when Roy Howell played (May 19th, 1978 to be exact) and I was there for Tony Fernandez' final game when they put him on the level of excellence (still have the shirt somewhere). Generally these guys are done by 35/36, the only one to do well has a big * due to when it happened and how far out of the norm it was (Fernandez). Some HOF'ers had trouble too - George Brett final good year was at age 37 (4 WAR, under 1 after that), Wade Boggs final one was age 39 (2.0) but kept going to 41 to get 3000, Schmidt was MVP level at 37 (6+ WAR), OK at 38 (1.9), done at 39 (-0.4 retired mid-season refused to go to ASG despite winning fan vote saying he didn't deserve it).

So yeah, this is my very long winded way of saying a 3B being effective at 37 is rare and unlikely. 36 not likely either, outside of HOF level guys like Rolen, Brett, Boggs, Schmidt - it happens, but often they are really pulling all the stops to make it happen then. So a 6 year deal you are writing off the 6th year, 7+ years is a pure write off for years 7+.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 03:07 PM EST (#456416) #
Let's assume one of Bregman or Alonso are willing to take the Jays' money. Because they may very well have the high offer for both (but will only sign one), Boras (who reps both) won't allow a deal to be officially consummated until he has acceptable offers for both players. Otherwise, he loses leverage on whichever player doesn't agree first. It's not one player holding up the process, it's both.

As well, if the Jays do agree with Vladdy on an extension, it's in their best interests to wait on Alonso's decision before announcing. If they announce early, teams that are holding back in hopes of participating in Vladdy's FA could decide to jump back in on Alonso. Boras could also be trying to wait out the Vladdy contract deadline for the very same reason
..
dalimon5 - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 03:45 PM EST (#456417) #
Marc those are two brilliant points and insights. Sounds very plausible from Shapiro and Boras.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 04:15 PM EST (#456418) #
The funny thing is that I posted that same thought on Twitter/X and Mike Elias (Orioles GM), who has followed me for years going back to my FanGraphs days and his Astros days, liked my post... lol
John Northey - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 04:28 PM EST (#456419) #
Excellent points there Marc. The Jays seem to be working a lot with Boras - perhaps there is a bit of quid-pro-quo going on. Once Bregman and/or Alonso has a deal from a non-Jays source that they feel is good then things will start to happen. One signs elsewhere, the other with the Jays, the Jays then sign Vlad long term all within the next 2 weeks. Could happen. But hopefully the Jays have a backup plan set in case things fall apart quickly.

Read a rumor that the Jays are now into the Nolan Arenado sweepstakes but no idea how that could work out. He is signed for 25-27 for $74 mil (solid deal) for ages 34-36. The past 2 years he has been a 2 1/2 WAR player after hitting over 7 in '2 at age 31. Just a 101 OPS+ last year, but 'wow' defense. I'd be a bit nervous about him, but 3 years isn't too bad. But to get him to come here I'd think he'd insist on a 4th year being added (he has a full no-trade clause). He already rejected a Houston trade so coming here seems very unlikely but who knows? See my earlier post about how poorly players age in their mid 30's and you can see the massive risk involved. The Cards right now are in a dumping phase for the first time I can recall. Just 4 signed for over $15 mil a year, Arnenado, Sonny Grey ($65 mil for 25/26 plus 27 buyout), Willson Contreras (3 years $18 per) and Miles Mikolas (1 year $17.7 mil). Matz is the only other over $10 mil at $12.5 for 2025. Contreras is a damn good catcher - they'd be nuts to deal him but if they want to I'd be happy (he and Kirk could DH and C often). Grey would've been nice pre-Max but now would just make the rotation too crowded and I doubt StL wants to trade him unless they get a kings ransom for him.

Should be an interesting 2 weeks pre-spring training.
Kelekin - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 04:48 PM EST (#456420) #
Congrats Marc, you made it to Reddit!
https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/s/MYh726SVqZ
John Northey - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 04:59 PM EST (#456421) #
Interesting viewpoint online - says Alonso would pay more in taxes in NY than in Toronto. Roughly $2.73 mil over a $70 mil contract. Basically there is no tax disadvantage in this case it seems. Unusual given the way things are normally reported, but interesting none-the-less.
SK in NJ - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 05:06 PM EST (#456422) #
Something is definitely holding up the Alonso market. By all accounts he has only two suitors, and neither of them are looking like they will change their valuation of him, so there's no reason to stall at this point. He's either willing to hold out until Spring Training on the hope that 1 or both teams significantly increase their offer (rather than move on entirely), or the Boras not wanting Pete to sign with the Jays until Bregman finds a deal theory might have some merit. If Alonso had a handful of teams in the running then I'd understand. No reason for this to take so long unless there's something we are missing.
uglyone - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 05:16 PM EST (#456423) #
I'll give the FO some credit here - it sure does sound like they have two legit high bids out there that the other teams don't want to match. this seems to be a legit effort.
uglyone - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 06:14 PM EST (#456424) #

Someone who spent time with Roki Sasaki during his MLB "job search" seems convinced the pitcher was not the driving force behind his move to the Dodgers.https://t.co/mxcDimpAnD

— Jim Allen (@JballAllen) January 31, 2025

scottt - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 06:57 PM EST (#456425) #
Every year Boras has players who sign either in camp or after the season start. It no longer a novelty.
pooks137 - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 07:02 PM EST (#456426) #
Interesting viewpoint online - says Alonso would pay more in taxes in NY than in Toronto. Roughly $2.73 mil over a $70 mil contract. Basically there is no tax disadvantage in this case it seems. Unusual given the way things are normally reported, but interesting none-the-less.

I was watching some of former Twins/Mets/As pitcher Trevor May's YT channel backlog the other day.

Someone asked him in his comments how much of the 15.5 mil/2 yr deal he took home that he signed with the Mets prior to the 2021 season as a RH reliever and a marginal SU type guy.

May responded that he took home just under 7 mil after taxes and agents fees.

I suppose it makes sense given what is known by regular working stiffs about salary at the highest tax brackets.

But it's still pretty shocking that the athlete only ever sees half of the big numbers that are thrown around daily.

greenfrog - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 07:07 PM EST (#456427) #
If Shapiro has been able to persuade Rogers to spend at this level — spending close to 6/$180m on Bregman to complete the off-season — then it may be worth keeping him around in future seasons. Because the Blue Jays payroll is getting very high and they seem to keep pushing for more acquisitions.
uglyone - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 07:17 PM EST (#456428) #
honestly feels to me like this is more top-down from Ed than bottom-up from shapiro.
dalimon5 - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 07:31 PM EST (#456429) #
It has Keith Pelley's footprints all over it.
greenfrog - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 07:59 PM EST (#456430) #
Very different from the days when AA had to ask players to chip in to cover Ervin Santana’s salary (and even then Santana signed elsewhere).
JohnL - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 09:45 PM EST (#456431) #
"feels to me like this is more top-down from Ed than bottom-up from shapiro"

That reminds me a bit of Rogers opening up the purse strings a few years after trying the JP/Moneyball approach when they signed Corey Koskie for the 2005 season. Whoever was the Globe & Mail sports columnist then (I think Stephen Brunt, but possibly Blair) claimed it was prompted by Ted Rogers - who had no real interest in sports - sailing with some of his buddies, when one of them asked "Why is your baseball team so crappy, Ted?" (This must have been 2004, which kind of defined "crappy.")

Koskie came (and went) that year, AJ Burnett & BJ Ryan were bigger free agent signings the next year.
uglyone - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 09:58 PM EST (#456432) #
yeah people forget just how filthy rich rogers is both as family and a corp. all of this is pocket change.
John Northey - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 10:07 PM EST (#456433) #
True enough Macleans says the Rogers family is worth $12.47B which is a heck of a lot. Cohen is at $21.5 billion and is the richest MLB owner. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/mlb-owners-net-worth.html has a list from 2021, no one other than those 2 were over $10 billion.
92-93 - Saturday, February 01 2025 @ 10:26 PM EST (#456434) #
Perhaps Ed is trying to make the Jays great again.

Rogers stock is down 46% over the last few years.
John Northey - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 03:47 AM EST (#456435) #
For 2025 who has to make the team or be released (who is in danger of that)?
  • No Options: Heineman, Nance,
  • Final Option: Lukes, Jiménez, Francis, Orelvis Martinez, Barger, Clase
  • 2 Options: Straw (NRI), Little, Loperfido, Berroa, Bloss, Macko
  • 3 Options (full set): Wagner, Schneider, Sandlin,
  • Special case: Yariel Rodríguez has a clause that makes sending him down not an option.
Everyone else is not on the 40 man thus not a factor right now.
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 09:19 AM EST (#456436) #
Zack Pop has to make the team or can be cut.
greenfrog - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 11:45 AM EST (#456437) #
I hope the Blue Jays are a good team this year. I’m going to need the occasional diversion from world events, especially those happening on our own continent.

Wonder if we’ll be hearing some US anthem boos at the RC.
electric carrot - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 11:55 AM EST (#456438) #
"I’m going to need the occasional diversion from world events, especially those happening on our own continent."

This would really be a great year for a CAD team to win the World Series.

(Or maybe I should just say this would be a good year for a CAD team to be the one who loses to LA in the World Series.)
John Northey - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 02:05 PM EST (#456439) #
Crap - price of doing this at 3 AM I missed a lot of the pen. Now including NRI's.
  • No Options: Heineman, Nance, Pop, Lovelady (NRI), Lauer (NRI), Stefanic (NRI), Ali Sánchez (NRI), Bethancourt (NRI)
  • 1 Option: Lukes, Jiménez, Francis, Orelvis Martinez, Barger, Clase,Burr, Robertson, Walker
  • 2 Options: Straw (NRI), Little, Loperfido, Berroa, Bloss, Macko, Lucas, Peterson, Kloffenstein (NRI)
  • 3 Options: Wagner, Schneider, Sandlin, all NRI's not listed
  • Special case: Yariel Rodríguez has a clause that makes sending him down not an option.
John Northey - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 02:30 PM EST (#456440) #
Every so often I click on a link and find myself on Twitter again without noticing at first. Then I go 'oh crap' and leave. But this time I saw something about Alonso and how Mets fans are certain he is coming back and how with him they are all great, without screwed. Now I really want him signing here just to piss them off.
scottt - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 02:33 PM EST (#456441) #
Hopefully no booing at the RC, but it could be a quiet spring training.
John Northey - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 04:28 PM EST (#456442) #
I suspect the booing will depend on what happens between now and then. I suspect a lot fewer people will go to spring training from Canada than in the past. I know I stopped going to the states years ago and have zero interest in going ever again - I used to go for weekends and planned to do trips there once I moved here (London ON) as it is 2 hours to Detroit, 2 hours to Buffalo, 2 hours to Toronto so I could see lots of baseball easily. But that border is now a brick wall as far as I'm concerned.

Too much political risk here - back to baseball. If no Alonso or Bregman who do the Jays go for? Any opinions/ideas?
uglyone - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 04:46 PM EST (#456443) #
hopefully lots and lots of booing at the RC.
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 05:00 PM EST (#456444) #
Wilner mentioned there were rumours of Bassit trade with signing of Scherzer to make budget room. I haven't seen anything but he also mentioned in the past the Vlad offer before it was in the news.
scottt - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 06:07 PM EST (#456445) #
Apparently Bassitt is the one who got Scherzer to sign. They were the anchor of the Mets rotation a few years back.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 06:09 PM EST (#456446) #
I've also heard rumors of a Bassitt trade - with San Francisco being a possible destination before they signed Verlander.

I would be absolutely shocked if Bregman or Alonso came here now after the booing and the tariff wars, etc. That dream is probably dead.
soupman - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 07:13 PM EST (#456447) #
Doncic trade makes me wonder if the Cardinals would let go of Jordan Walker. He looked like a star in August.
vw_fan17 - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 08:15 PM EST (#456448) #
With the stuff currently going on, I would say the odds of a disruption (whether in spring training, the season, etc) has gone from 0 to somewhat greater than 0. And the odds of the Blue Jays (as "Canada's team") being barred from playing this season (or forever) have gone up significantly, at least into the single digit percentage points. The longer this drags on and the more it escalates, the more likely it is, IMHO. And be very glad if that's the worst of the damage.
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 08:31 PM EST (#456449) #
There is no chance the Blue Jays are not allowed to play while all other teams are. 0.
uglyone - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 09:02 PM EST (#456450) #
bassitt being traded would make zero sense tbh.
scottt - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 09:55 PM EST (#456451) #
Less than zero. I think the rumors follow the trade deadline when folks were expecting Bassitt to be traded because the Jays were not contending in 2025.

He's the 3rd starter and would have to be replaced if traded. Maybe they could do that by trading prospects for a starter but who would take Bassitt's salary at this point?
John Northey - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 10:21 PM EST (#456452) #
A Bassitt trade might have made sense if the Jays had signed Burnes or Fried. Maybe. Or if they trade for Cease now. But otherwise it would not be a terribly smart move. Mid-season is a different story. If the Jays are out of it in July then all bets are off and Bassitt, Vlad, Bo, Scherzer, Green, and Swanson are all on the table (free agents post 2025) = $102,500,000 in luxury tax ($109,883,333 in actual dollars) for a full season. For the final 1/3 of the season it equals $33,825,000 which is actually enough to get them back under the luxury tax threshold again should they do what they did in '24 and not have to pay any of the salary - they'd have roughly $7 million of space to play with. Crazy eh?

So basically right now the Jays are in a very good position for 2025 - if they contend, woohoo, if not they can dump and get lots of prospects again and avoid the payroll tax. Both paths have pluses and minuses. Contending is fun for us, and should get tons of cash for Rogers (TV revenue, gate, etc.) but also puts the team at risk of penalties in '26. Flopping sucks as we like to cheer on a winner, but it would restock a thin minor league system and probably push Rogers to dump Shapiro/Atkins post '25 which would make some people very, very happy.

I'm 100% in the camp of 'lets contend and figure it out later'. Ideally they sign Vlad long term (rumors are that a $450 mil deal is close to being signed) and say 'screw it' to the luxury tax.

2026's rotation will be interesting - Gausman, Berrios both signed already as is Yariel Rodriguez. Manoah and Francis are both in arbitration for 2026. So that is a 5 man rotation, but with obvious issues (Manoah health, Francis and Rodriguez who knows if they'll be effective, Gausman on his final year and in his mid-30's, Berrios could be on his final year as he has an opt-out post '26). Really hope the kids on the farm have a good year down there - Tiedemann, Macko, Rojas, Bloss, Yesavage - gotta figure at least one of them will be ready for a rotation slot in '26 right? But 1B/SS/pen could all need replacements too. Jimenez is possible at SS, 1B who knows? The pen is always a crapshoot and needs fixes every year - never assume a good year will be followed by another good one in the pen.
vw_fan17 - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 10:22 PM EST (#456453) #
@dalimon5 All it would take is a baseball fan in Trump or Elon's buddy group that is mad the World Series went outside of the US in '92 and '93. You seriously underestimate the anger / resentment / revenge tour these guys are on.
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 10:36 PM EST (#456454) #
Do you know the rules of the league? Toronto would have to contract or be sold or relocated. It's a private league by owners, Rogers being one of them. Trump and Musk don't have any power to force Americans where to work. WhT your suggesting is far beyond control of a president.
John Northey - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 10:50 PM EST (#456455) #
When it comes to US politics right now it is best to stay out of it unless you have some power over it. It seems Elon Musk is the real president and is doing whatever the heck he wants. Hopefully he enjoys baseball and won't touch it. They are all too busy destroying the US economy (and the world's as well) while figuring out how to maximize their own wealth via doing that.

But again, lets avoid the politics. Is there anyone in the Jays system right now who could take over for Vlad in '26 if needed? Riley Tirotta had a solid '24 (247/385/433 overall) and should be starting in Buffalo for '25 at age 26. This is his 5th year as a pro (signed out of college) and he has time at 3B (more innings/games than at 1B, barely) plus time at 2B/RF/LF. Rainer Nunez at 23 is younger, but was in AA all of 2024 (275/349/416) and last played 3B at age 17 so is a pure 1B/DH now. Hopefully will get lots of time in Buffalo this year to unlock his power (rated a 60 in '23) - a video of a great game is here. And that is about it for guys who caught my eye with a quick look at Jays 1B/DH at BR.

Yeah, the system is very thin at 1B, but of course, you can always move guys around to 1B fairly easily (see Vlad for an example). Plus 1B tend to not have a ton of value in the market (see Alonso who probably regrets not taking that long term deal a year ago).
greenfrog - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 10:58 PM EST (#456456) #
Flaherty to Detroit. Maybe this makes them less likely to land Bergman?
John Northey - Sunday, February 02 2025 @ 11:17 PM EST (#456457) #
Interesting deal - $25 mil for '25, $10 mil for '26 (opt out for Flaherty) that goes to $20 mil if he makes 15+ starts this year. He says he always wanted to be in Detroit (he was there before, and was traded away). Doubt that is enough to shift Detroit away from Bregman. After this deal it seems the Tigers are at (for CBT) $164.6 mil which is very far from the luxury tax (over $75 mil away). Their highest ever was $212 mil in 2016 (CBT payroll) so they have spent a LOT more than they are set to right now. Plus in the AL Central adding Bregman and Flaherty would make them big favorites I'd assume. FG has Jace Jung as their 3B right now (0.1 WAR last year in 94 PA as a 23 year old rookie, projected from 0.6 to 2.5 WAR for 2025, just one has him over 2 - ZiPS with an 88-104 wRC+) so the potential gain from Bregman is bigger for Detroit than for the Jays. If I was betting on it I'd bet on Bregman going to Detroit right now.
pooks137 - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 01:29 AM EST (#456458) #
Do you know the rules of the league? Toronto would have to contract or be sold or relocated. It's a private league by owners, Rogers being one of them. Trump and Musk don't have any power to force Americans where to work. WhT your suggesting is far beyond control of a president.

I agree that the likelihood of any disruption for the Jays other than currency fluctuations (and perhaps FAs being leery) is very low, but it's not zero.

Cuban defectors like our very own Yariel Rodriguez have had to play black market immigration games for decades because of geopolitics.

Teams in Finland & Latvia had to fold and leave the Kontinental Hockey League in 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine.

Obviously a kinetic war is a lot different than a childish tariff dispute by dummies on both sides.

But there is some precedent for politics affecting pro sports across international borders.

scottt - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 09:38 AM EST (#456459) #
I don't see Bregman coming over.
In 2021, we had a deal with Brantley and he balked off and went back to Houston.
So, I don't think Springer has any influence on Bregman, either.
Springer just took the best deal available and called it a day.
That's not good enough for Bregman.

Americans professional athletes are leaning on the right heavily.
We saw that with Bass who ended his career for ideological ideas.
Bregman is from New Mexico. Canada is not likely to appeal to him.

Alonso if from Florida and has only played in New York.
That's a bit more relatable, but he's played in the NL and hasn't crossed the border much.
He's only been in Toronto once for a 3 game series.

I think it makes more sense to focus on Latino players like Santander.
They are more likely to sign a reasonable contract and they're probably more open to playing in Canada.
Extending Vlad would only help on that front.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 11:45 AM EST (#456460) #
Or we can assume nothing and remove stereotypes like how we all don't know baseball, live in igloos and drink maple syrup (to some). There's examples everywhere to prove any stereotype you want.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 11:57 AM EST (#456461) #
Alonso and Bregman may land back with their old teams just because they want familiarity and liked playing in those cities. The more it drags out, the more likely that this will happen. I wouldn't be opposed to a Randal Grischuk reunion as a 4th outfielder.
92-93 - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 12:14 PM EST (#456462) #
John, how many times are you going to subject us to your political views, only to immediately say after some version of "enough with the politics"?
dalimon5 - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 12:26 PM EST (#456463) #
here here ... in the most positive way possible. Love everybody's contributions on this site.
vw_fan17 - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 12:26 PM EST (#456464) #
My last word on the subject (unless conditions change, obviously). Mlb has a congressional anti-trust exemption that other leagues don't have. Congress has used this for the Mitchell (steroids) report, etc.  They actually have a stronger influence / control over baseball specifically.
scottt - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 12:51 PM EST (#456465) #
The Congress and the Senate, not the president.
The president can't sign decrees affecting MLB.

Bassitt is from Ohio.
Springer is from Connecticut.
Gausman is from Colorado. He grew up in the shadow of Halladay and spent his first 6 years in the division.


There's not a lot of precedent for signing a top free agent from the red states.
I don't think it's a coincidence.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 01:00 PM EST (#456466) #
New Mexico is a blue state the last two elections...

Jays have signed lots of players from all over the continent and world. BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett, Vernon Wells are all from "Red States," as if every person in one place is the same.

We don't know which factors will determine a decision but logically speaking, its unlikely to be one generic label of type that determines a decision like that. Josh Donaldson is from Florida, his wife is from Toronto I think. You get the idea.
John Northey - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 01:30 PM EST (#456467) #
To be honest I doubt red state, blue state makes one iota of difference for free agents. They all follow the green first, then go for personal preference (ie: live close to home, family, staying where they've played or always wanted to play). I have no clue where 99% of American players are from, nor do I give a damn. I recall one free agent who said his wife kept him from signing here - Storm Davis as his wife panicked over the Montreal Massacre and how everyone was speaking French (the killing of innocent women, no big deal, but people speaking French? Can't have that). Lucky for the Jays as he had just 5 years left in his career with a total of 2.9 bWAR 21-34 record (back when that was what many cared about), 92 ERA+ (his ERA never looked that good).

As to recent signings (2020-now) ignoring guys from outside the USA you get - Blue: IKF Hawaii, Turner California, Clement NY, Hoffman NY Yates Hawaii, Springer Connecticut, Semien California, Gausman Colorado; Red: Kiermaier Indiana, Belt Texas, Bassitt Ohio. Clearly Rejected by Ohtani, Soto, Sasaki (all non-US). Non-US signed: Ryu, Santander. So more blue than red states, but it doesn't appear to be a real pattern imo. The big rejections were all non-Americans (thus red/blue irrelevant) unless I'm forgetting someone who signed elsewhere that the Jays were clearly chasing hard after. Alonso is from Florida (ruby red right now, but was swing until the past decade or so), Bregman New Mexico (blue, never voted for Trump) for what that is worth. IMO nothing, but worth checking just to see if there was anything to it (just because I don't expect anything doesn't mean it isn't there).

In the 80's the Jays were often seen as odd due to the border, but post 92/93 they were just another team to most players (see Winfield, Molitor, Morris, etc. all signing here and later on Roger Clemens and others). Just checked and Clemens was from Texas. Yeah, the Jays should've built up that Dominican pipeline a LOT more back then (Ash and Interbrew blew it), but they didn't. Now is a good time to rebuild it and/or another one from other nations. Take advantage of the political situation to get non-American players at younger ages - why not leverage every advantage you got? It'd be interesting to know if IFA see any issues with signing with certain teams. Doubt there is a practical way to find out. As always #1 is the cash - who pays most. #2 is opportunity (for the kids signing as IFA). Then way down the list comes which team it is/where it is. Unless, of course, you are someone like Sasaki who is being courted by all teams and can take whatever cash he wants up to the max allowed.

I will try harder to refrain from adding my POV to political crap that keeps flowing into here. We all need to try harder on that. I added in new topics to try to get people back into Jay mode but it seems few want to discuss the rotation's future, the options outside of Alonso/Bregman, what kids might break through in 2025, or anything else lately.
uglyone - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 01:45 PM EST (#456468) #
Anyways, CAL/NY seem to be kicking the asses of TEX/FLA in terms of player additions in all sports right now.
John Northey - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 01:52 PM EST (#456469) #
Checking populations - right now roughly (did basic rounding) Florida 22 mil, Texas 30 mil, California 39 mil, NY 20 mil. So NY/Calif > Florida/Texas for population overall. Who knows how the hurricanes that regularly hit Florida and Texas affect things (I'd guess many non-MLB owned/managed fields are destroyed and not repaired right away). Now, the fires in Cali might affect them for the future thus cutting things down a bit.
scottt - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 02:54 PM EST (#456470) #
If you bundle top players with guys in minor contract, it doesn't mean anything.
The Jays have as many players as the other teams and draft as many as they are entitled to draft.
AA had a huge issue with getting draft picks to sign, but that was an other era. 
Springer does endorsements. Bichette doesn't. Guerrero does but his lack of English limits him.

It feels the Jays should build the Cuban pipeline.
It should be possible to sign players in Cuba directly.
The issue is probably that the independent leagues also play across the border.

greenfrog - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 06:44 PM EST (#456471) #
“MLB Fires Umpire Pat Hoberg For Violation Of Gambling Policy” (MLBTR)

More evidence that gambling is becoming a significant problem in professional sports. There are so many opportunities for corruption.

Too bad for Hoberg to blow his career on something like that.
scottt - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 06:46 PM EST (#456472) #
He was the only umpire to ever call a perfect game (all balls and strikes called properly).
mendocino - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 07:48 PM EST (#456473) #
PECOTA Projections:
NYY 89.7
BAL 89.2
TOR 84.5
TB 81.9
BOS 77.6

https://x.com/TodayJays/status/1886485340493353147
scottt - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 09:09 PM EST (#456474) #
That puts the Jays playoffs odds at 49%.
greenfrog - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 09:22 PM EST (#456475) #
I'm still hoping that Alonso signs with the Blue Jays. I'm not that keen on Bregman. Schoenfeld highlights some of the concerns surrounding Bregman (age, trends in his offensive profile, overall decline in his athleticism).

I think I would rather see Alonso on a 3-4 deal than Bregman on a 6-7 year deal.

Neither player is ideal, though, and as Marc suggested, it may be unlikely that either player ends up in Toronto in any event.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 03 2025 @ 10:15 PM EST (#456476) #
This is interesting. PECOTA 2025 vs 2024 sees almost a 4 win drop for the Blue Jays. I guess they see Bo not rebounding and Vlad cooling off.
scottt - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 12:45 AM EST (#456477) #
They rank the Jays about a game worse than Seattle who has missed the playoffs by 1 game the last 2 years.
bpoz - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 08:47 AM EST (#456478) #
Are the PECOTA projections reasonably accurate? I fully expect their projections to be better than mine because mine are usually quite wrong. IMO this can be tested if we could find the PECOTA projections for the last 5 years for example.
bpoz - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 09:04 AM EST (#456479) #
Sorry but after reading the 2023 and 2024 PECOTA projections I realized that they were guessing/speculating because their projections were quite wrong. Basically it is more off season nonsense. I did not say BS out of respect for people that put faith in these projections.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 09:20 AM EST (#456480) #
I agree.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 10:26 AM EST (#456481) #
I actually didn't know Baseball Prospectus was still a thing. I've never been a fan of computerized projections and have never seen any proof they're more accurate than an in-tuned analyst. They're projection for 2024, which I just looked up, was not good. But then I was the only person that said Toronto was a fifth-place team (twitter repeatedly told me I was an idiot lol).

The lack of news about Pete tells me the decision has probably been locked in for at least a week. It's likely either Toronto or New York. Sounds like Bregman should decide hopefully by end of week, which will then allow for the Alonso news to be announced. And Scherzer... the fact that Scherzer hasn't been announced has me favoring Alonso to Toronto FWIW.

I'm also hearing $480-$500M for Vladdy, just not sure on the length. Good chance it gets done by the deadline.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 11:19 AM EST (#456482) #
Projections and analysts are often wrong.

The one thing projections have going for them is that they're 100% unbiased.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 11:23 AM EST (#456483) #
Also a good hedge against the error bars in any projection is to combine multiple projections.

But they will still often be wrong, because players often over or under perform their expected level.

That's sports. That's life.
John Northey - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 12:00 PM EST (#456484) #
I see projections as reasonable guesses. I figure the experts will do a better job than I will at it so I use theirs to guesstimate what to expect in 2025. Combining multiple to get a range seems reasonable - if everyone thinks the Jays are a 85-90 win team then odds are they'll be close to that, if the range is 75-80 then odds are that is where they'll be. However, every year there are injuries and unexpected surprises - good like Schneider in '23, bad like Bo in '24 (when healthy). We can just hope the Jays get lots of good surprises in '25.
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 12:06 PM EST (#456485) #
One thing that makes me a bit nervous for 2025 is that the Blue Jays are a fairly old team (in terms of the veterans they’re counting on, especially in the starting pitching department).

Also the outfield could be weak if Varsho needs the year to fully recover from his shoulder injury.

On the plus side, the team has pretty good position player depth with guys like Jimenez, Clement, Loperfido, Wagner, Barger, Roden, etc.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 12:19 PM EST (#456486) #
Thanks for the update Marc. If that bears fruit then what are you hesring or have heard about Bo? Would he stay with Alonso, Scherzer and Vlad all onboard?
uglyone - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 12:25 PM EST (#456487) #
Speaking of combining multiple projections, Fangraphs finally has added the full Zips projections in with the Steamer Projections to make their Depth Chart projections.

The Jays' 44.6 projected WAR sits 11th MLB, 7th AL, and 3rd ALE.

* 1. NYY 49.7 (#3)
* 2. BAL 47.7 (#4)
* 3. TOR 44.6 (#11)
* 4. BOS 42.5 (#14)
* 5. TBR 41.5 (#15)
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 12:42 PM EST (#456488) #
Does ZIPS include all the off-season acquisitions including Scherzer?
John Northey - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 12:54 PM EST (#456489) #
The ZIPS projections don't seem to account for playing time in a reasonable way - Berrios 29 starts, Gausman 28, Bassitt 27, Tiedemann 25, Bloss 23, Wallace 22, Harrison 22 - if any of those last 4 are right I'd be 100% shocked, plus Berrios has had exactly 32 starts in 2021-2024 each year. So just straight adding the WAR is not anywhere near accurate.

Scherzer was not included either. He is still listed as blank for team in the projections (probably because the deal isn't 100% official yet) 1.7 WAR over 20 starts 107 IP though.
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 12:58 PM EST (#456490) #
Thanks, John.

Fangraphs piece on which teams would be most helped by the addition of Bregman:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bregging-the-question/
uglyone - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 01:24 PM EST (#456491) #
one of the good things about fangraphs is how quickly they update.

Scherzer was updated on to the jays' depth charts within minutes of him signing.

John - you can find Scherzer's zips projections on his player page and on the Texas zips projections.

And you are right that zips never tries to predict playing time.

Fangraphs Depth Charts does try to predict playing time tho, simply using their own expertise and knowledge, so it will adjust both the Zips and Steamer projections to their educated non-computer playing time predictions.


you can find the depth chart projectios here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14



for our SP they've predicted this playing time:


* Gausman 192ip, 3.78era, 3.1war
* Bassitt 177ip, 4.09era, 2.0war
* Berrios 194ip, 4.18era, 1.9war
* Scherzer 116ip, 3.76era, 1.9war
* Francis 147ip, 4.34era, 1.5war
* Rodriguez 52ip, 3.98era, 0.7war
* Bloss 23ip, 4.73era, 0.1war
* Manoah 9ip, 4.13era, 0.1war
* Macko 8ip, 4.38era, 0.1war

uglyone - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 01:50 PM EST (#456492) #

During his address at the team's annual media luncheon, Dana Brown twice spoke about Alex Bregman in the past tense, saying once that the team "lost Bregman."

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) February 4, 2025
pooks137 - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 02:19 PM EST (#456493) #
On the plus side, the team has pretty good position player depth with guys like Jimenez, Clement, Loperfido, Wagner, Barger, Roden, etc

A little surprising that from all the tweener types on the roster and the upper minors, only Horwitz has been shipped out to exchange surplus depth for other positions of need like Gimenez and Sandlin.

The Jays have too many guys without a position or without a clear opportunity on to make the roster. Also a lot of guys 25+ who are ageing out of prospect status and option years.

The FO seemed to use a "Best Player Available" philosophy last deadline in converting expiring contracts into future assets. But it resulted in an entire haul of marginal position player AAAA types and prospects that likely project to be average MLB regulars at their high end.

The other half of choosing talent over need in both the draft and in trades is that you have to be bold and willing to convert the surplus depth into other useful things. Instead of simply hoarding marginal assets that depreciate quickly if they don't perform immediately or are lost for little to no return as they fall off the back of your 26 & 40 man roster.

uglyone - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 02:21 PM EST (#456494) #
Fangraphs Depth Chart combined projections for our hitters.

I've as usual added in a war/650pa pace stat because i like it.

I've also sorted it into two full lineups plus a bench, because we've got so many interesting depth options. Some of these guys aren't actually projected to get any playing time by Fangraphs, because it's unlikely that all of them do, but I do think that any of these guys could earn themselves playing time this year if they play well.



* SS Bichette (27): 616pa, 116wrc+, 3.6war, 3.8war/650
* DH Wagner (26): 336pa, 116wrc+, 1.1war, 2.1war/650
* 1B Guerrero (26): 672pa, 152wrc+, 4.8war, 4.6war/650
* LF Santander (30): 672pa, 126wrc+, 3.2war, 3.1war/650
* C Alejandro (26): 436pa, 114wrc+, 3.9war, 5.8war/650
* RF Springer (35): 616pa, 108wrc+, 2.0war, 2.1war/650
* 2B Gimenez (26): 637pa, 106wrc+, 4.1war, 4.2war/650
* 3B Clement (29): 343pa, 98wrc+, 1.5war, 2.8war/650
* CF Varsho (28): 567pa, 102wrc+, 2.6war, 3.0war/650

* RF Lukes (30): 112pa, 106wrc+, 0.4war, 2.3war/650
* 3B Stefanic (29): 0pa, 109wrc+
* LF Roden (25): 28pa, 109wrc+
* DH Schneider (26): 217pa, 107wrc+, 0.6war, 1.8war/650
* 1B Barger (25): 196pa, 105wrc+, 0.7war, 2.3war/650
* SS Jimenez (24): 77pa, 103wrc+, 0.3war, 2.5war/650
* CF Loperfido (26): 161pa, 91wrc+, 0.2war, 0.8war/650
* 2B Martinez (23): 210pa, 94wrc+, 0.4war, 1.2war/650
* C Heineman (34): 141pa, 76wrc+, 0.6war, 2.8war/650

* OF Clase (23): 35pa, 87wrc+
* OF Berroa (26): 7pa, 86wrc+
* IF Kasevich (24): 0pa, 84wrc+
* C Bethancourt (33): 77pa, 85wrc+, 0.3war, 2.5war/650
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 02:25 PM EST (#456495) #
I'm not sure the addition of better talent around him and a long-term deal for Vladdy would be enough for Bo, but it might be. Either way, I expect him to test free agency.

Even before that nugget on Bregman and the Astros, the tea leaves were suggesting to me that it's down to 1. Cubs, 2. Tigers, 3. Red Sox.

But I also wouldn't be surprised if they got the physicals done before announcing the two deals publicly.

John Northey - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 03:42 PM EST (#456496) #
The FanGraphs piece on Bregman was quite interesting - KC gains 14.6% on their odds of making the playoffs, down to the White Sox going from 0.0% to 0.1% odds (would love to see that 1 in a 1000 time they make it with him). The Jays grow from 40.7% to 47.9%, a 7.2% gain. 11 teams gain less, 18 gain more. Detroit gains the 2nd most at 12.4% so clearly their interest should be a lot higher than the Jays interest, plus they are a mile away from being hit with the payroll tax. The Cubs gain far less than the Jays at 3.6%, Astros (8.2%), Red Sox (10.8%) are the other teams looking at him.

Basically I'd say the Tigers and Red Sox should be the favorites but the Red Sox appear to have a cheap owner right now so I'm betting on the Tigers. Then we hope to get the entertainment of the Jays getting Alonso which will lead to tons of 3B time for Vlad in 2024 and maybe beyond.
scottt - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 04:05 PM EST (#456497) #
I must admit, I never imagined Bichette could be a replacement player.
I, however, was projecting Tampa and Boston to be no better than .500 teams.
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 07:16 PM EST (#456498) #
Grichuk to AZ.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 07:54 PM EST (#456499) #
I don't think he qualifies as a headline or warrants a post here on da Batters Box.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 07:55 PM EST (#456500) #
tongue/cheek
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 08:12 PM EST (#456501) #
He had an excellent 2024, so credit to him (and the Arizona coaches?) for that.
scottt - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 09:09 PM EST (#456502) #
Petersen DFAed for Mad Max.
John Northey - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 09:31 PM EST (#456503) #
Grichuk was one of many 'might as well' options - guys who could fill a role here if needed. At just $5 mil ($2 mil this year, $3 mil buyout on a $5 mil mutual option for 2026) he wasn't that expensive. Seems Arizona is a good place for ex-Jays with him, Gurriel Jr, and Moreno all there now.

Latest rumors at MLBTR is that Boston is now chasing Arenado as they don't want to go to 6 years for Bregman. Arenado is entering his age 34 season though and has had 2 years of wRC+ in the 100-110 range, a valuable player but not the $25 mil level he will be paid at ($74 mil for 3 years, ages 34-35-36) and odds are he'll ask for another year to be tacked on or for the 3rd year to be increased in value (full no-trade clause).

IMO the Jays are down to Alonso, Bregman, or just go with what they got. Hopefully those 2 sign somewhere soon so things can be settled pre-spring training. Also hoping Vlad signs as the rumor mill is nutty on him (Jays to meet his $450 mil demand, he has rejected their final offer, he will sign, he won't, he will be traded, etc.) so it'll be nice when spring starts so we can get past that one way or the other. Can't see a trade unless someone makes an insane offer pre-mid-season if the Jays are out of it. If they are in it then he will stay all of 2025 no matter what.

Michael Petersen designated for assignment as the Max deal is now complete (he passed his physical).
John Northey - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 09:49 PM EST (#456504) #
So the FA tracker at FG shows the Jays this winter so far have gotten an OF (power), a starter, 2 relievers, and a catcher.

Projected WAR (FG) has Santander #2 for OF (Soto #1), Bethancourt 10th among C (#5 Yasmani Grandal and #8 James McCann are still out there), Hoffman #1 among RP, Garcia #8 (#5 David Robertson still out there). Max Scherzer #11 for SP (#7 Nick Pivetta still out there).

Just 3 guys left projected to be worth 2+ WAR in '25 - Alex Bregman, Nick Pivetta, and Pete Alonso. The best projected LHR is Jalen Beeks but he isn't that exciting. Few are at this stage of the winter. At this point I'd look at Ryan Yarbrough if the Jays feel they need one more reliever from the left side, but I doubt they feel that strongly about it. Vlad and Alonso are their focus (with some on Bregman) I figure right now. Odds are they are looking for trade possibilities too but I don't see much on that front, although if the Red Sox get Bregman or Arenado they might be dumping Masataka Yoshida who would be an interesting one for the DH/LF mix - he could be a decent later middle of the order bat (#5/6 area).
mendocino - Tuesday, February 04 2025 @ 11:46 PM EST (#456505) #
Kiley McDaniel .. cut the check for Vladdy

https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/the-jd-bunkis-podcast/jays-farm-report-and-why-vladdy-is-a-great-bet-w-kiley-mcdaniel-is-this-an-all-in-season-for-the-leafs-w-frank-seravalli/
mendocino - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 02:21 AM EST (#456506) #
Héctor Gómez@hgomez27 · 4h
The wait will soon be over...

Hubble@Hxbble · 10h
Day 93 of posting Vladimir Guerrero Jr until the Blue Jays sign him to an extension
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 07:56 AM EST (#456507) #
Shi's recent Sportsnet article suggests the Blue Jays may be done making off-season moves:

"Max Scherzer and the Toronto Blue Jays finalized their $15.5-million, one-year contract Tuesday night, the formal addition of the three-time Cy Young Award winner crossing off the last item from the club’s winter to-do list.

"While further moves remain possible – and the Blue Jays are looking to be opportunistic if markets develop their way – their roster picture is somewhat clearer now that Scherzer is set to join the rotation."

A Vladdy extension in the next week or two seems plausible to me. A Bregman or Alonso addition less so (but not out of the realm of possibility).
SK in NJ - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 08:13 AM EST (#456508) #
A Vladdy extension makes any further move less important, IMO. Obviously maximizing 2025 wins is a good thing regardless, so if someone like Alonso falls on your lap then do it, but knowing Vladdy is going to be on the roster for 10+ years would lessen the pressure for further 2025 investment dramatically. It no longer makes 2025 do or die with this group, so they can sign Alonso/Bregman or go internal, and either direction would be sensible in that scenario. Without a Vladdy extension, they need Alonso/Bregman.
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 08:18 AM EST (#456509) #
I somewhat agree with that mindset — but only up to a point. Vladdy’s remaining peak seasons will be around 2025-2030. 2025 may be the best chance the team has in the next few years (if not longer) to be good, so they should maximize their chances of making and advancing in the postseason this year.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 08:37 AM EST (#456510) #
This reporting becoming prevalent is irresponsible. "This might happen if this and this happens but also it may not happen at all if nobody wants it to." It's a nonsense style born out of fact checking which happens easier now when reporters and journalists post bite-sized items to X which is easy for public to criticize if wrong. I noticed since the Ohtani fiasco with JP Morosi nobody wants to say anything that can be wrong so they all end up saying nothing.

Shi Davidi has always been wishy washy in his hits but he's really tumbled this year. First by reporting that there was a self imposed hard cap on budget, then saying they wouldn't sign Santander (i think) then saying Alonso is likely not coming to Toronto (news is Toronto has offer out to Alonso by credible sources). Now he is saying they are done unless they aren't. Really no different than Hector Gomez other than writing an essay.
mendocino - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 10:54 AM EST (#456511) #
BA Farm System Rankings

1 BOS
6 TB
17 BALT
23 TOR
25 NYY
mendocino - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 12:12 PM EST (#456512) #
checking Milb transactions

SS Elaineiker Coronado assigned to DSL Blue Jays 2.

have Jays added a second DSL team?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 12:41 PM EST (#456513) #
What is the hold up with Alonso, Bregman and Vladdy? Players start reporting in a week.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 12:53 PM EST (#456514) #
"I somewhat agree with that mindset — but only up to a point. Vladdy’s remaining peak seasons will be around 2025-2030. 2025 may be the best chance the team has in the next few years (if not longer) to be good, so they should maximize their chances of making and advancing in the postseason this year."


With a Vladdy extension, I think the team is better off trying to find another Gimenez trade rather than signing Alonso or Bregman. Even acknowledging that maybe 2025 could be their best short-term chance, I think the more sensible approach if you know Vladdy is sticking around is trying to find him more long-term running mates. Without a Vladdy extension, I'm going all in on Alonso or Bregman to make sure 2025 maximizes the one year of contention the team has left. Either way, a Vladdy extension changes the perception of this team moving forward. There won't be the same level of urgency for 2025 success, so if Alonso falls on your lap, then it's a luxury and not a necessity.
Glevin - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 01:39 PM EST (#456515) #
I agree with SK. With a Vladdy extension, it extends the Jays window so it makes more sense to have 2,3,5 (but not 4!) years ahead in mind. Even now, I'd rather a trade than Alonso or Bregman.

uglyone - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 02:03 PM EST (#456516) #
choosing not to add an Alonso or Bregman would just be the same thing they've done for the last 10yrs - just enough to be good, never willing to take the risk to be great.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 02:03 PM EST (#456517) #
Honestly. I'd rather the money to sign Bregman for 6 years go toward Vlad's extension. If the Jays can afford either Alonso or Bregman and a Vlad extension, that's fine, but I'd rather keep a home-grown star than invest in an older player on the decline.
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 03:07 PM EST (#456518) #
Impressive that Boston has the #1 farm system in MLB after trading multiple prospects for Crochet.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 03:53 PM EST (#456519) #
It's entirely possible for the FO to sign Bregman or Alonso while extending Vlad and maybe even Bo while bringing the payroll below tax threshold by 2027.

next year - Bassitt, Bo and Scherzer removed = 54,500,000
year after - Gausman, Springer and Green removed = 57,500,000

That's 115 million off the books. Increasing Vlad's salary from 28.5 to 40 million and ... there is still plenty of room (let's say 100 million+) before arb increases.

uglyone - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 04:16 PM EST (#456520) #
yeah that's an important point. most of the current committments aren't longterm.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 05:42 PM EST (#456521) #
*112
scottt - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 06:15 PM EST (#456522) #
The pitchers will have to be replaced.
Would you replace Bassitt by Bregman this year?
Should we go without Gausman and his equivalent for the next 6 years so we can pay all that money to a declining Bregman? 

Extending Vladdy is not an issue because he's not over 30.
I think we'll have more of the type of trades that brought Berrios and Chapman over in the next few years.
That's better than overpaying for guys that nobody else want.

92-93 - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 08:56 PM EST (#456523) #
Bassitt stunk last year for a guy with his salary so yes, I would replace him with Bregman this year.

It would be phenomenal if the Jays could land Bregman like they did Semien.
scottt - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 09:25 PM EST (#456524) #
Meh. They didn't have enough pitching and missed the playoffs that year. They can add a DH later if nobody steps up.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 09:51 PM EST (#456525) #
After 2025: Bo, Bassitt, Scherzer, Green, Swanson

After 2026: Springer, Kirk, Varsho, Gausman, Berrios (player option), Garcia, Straw

So they will have plenty of payroll room in the next 1-2 years even if they extend Vladdy, but they'll also need to replace quite a few spots and not many of them have internal options at the moment. They will still have to be smart with how they use the payroll space, and obviously they need some good health (Manoah, Tiedemann, etc) and development. I'd avoid Bregman on a 6 year deal. Alonso on a 2-3 year deal with opt-outs sounds more reasonable, though as I said I hope there's a trade for a younger, more controllable piece. Someone like Luis Robert, even with the performance/health risk involved with him, would be an ideal pickup.
uglyone - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 09:53 PM EST (#456526) #
never seen a fanbase so against adding good players just for money.
uglyone - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 10:00 PM EST (#456527) #
Alonso just signed with the Mets.
JB21 - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 10:00 PM EST (#456528) #
Alonso back to the Mets
pooks137 - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 10:01 PM EST (#456529) #
Kind of interesting that the Jays only climbed one ranking in the 2024 v 2025 BA farm rankings despite selling off all their rentals at the deadline for new blood.

Not that many graduations other than Horwitz (and Zulueta being lost to waivers).

I suppose the bad luck wrt to TJS injuries to almost all of the Jays higher ranked pitching prospects counteracted some of the new marginal position player talent coming into the system through selling off veterans.

Really makes one wonder just how many ranks the system might've fallen in the event that the Jays had decided and failed to go-all in at the deadline last year and either stood pat or traded some prospects for rental help.
uglyone - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 10:07 PM EST (#456530) #
$30m for 1yr plus a $24m player option.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 10:14 PM EST (#456531) #
With the contract Alonso got, I think the Jays interest may have been overblown. For a Boras client that’s a lot less than I would have expected, which might signify that interest elsewhere just wasn’t there.
Glevin - Wednesday, February 05 2025 @ 11:07 PM EST (#456532) #
I am pretty sure Jays beat that offer but also felt like Alonso just never really wanted to leave NY. Bregman, I also think doesn't want to come to Toronto and has more suiters than Alonso. Looks like trade market is best fit. I think there are a ton of guys potentially available at different costs/talent but Jays do need to add one more bat.
uglyone - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 12:05 AM EST (#456533) #
Other than bregman i don't think there's a bat worth adding at this point. Give the internal options the chance now, like we should have last year instead of adding mediocre free agent bats.
soupman - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 12:12 AM EST (#456534) #
Mets are still in a good position to chase Vlad with this deal.

John Northey - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 12:40 AM EST (#456535) #
Agreed that the Jays probably beat the offer, but I'm not surprised he chose to stay in NY. He can be their all-time HR king for a bit next year, at least until Soto beats him in a few years. As to the Jays, it is probably best to go the trade route and to focus on signing Vlad. Bregman would be nice for '25 and '26, but I see disaster potential all over him after that.

Finding a solid bat to DH would be good now but where from and at what cost? Wouldn't be surprised if they go sign one of the better relievers now to try to up the pitching and hope the kids can hit.
scottt - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 04:24 AM EST (#456536) #
The pen is pretty much done. They could use another lefty, but one with options.
Jonny German - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 08:06 AM EST (#456537) #
Little is the lefty with options. What they need is a higher leverage lefty.
greenfrog - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 08:15 AM EST (#456538) #
If MLB is going to adopt a salary cap sometime in the next few years, that might be an argument for the Blue Jays to sign Bergman now and go for a high-payroll competitive team now, while they still can.
John Northey - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 08:34 AM EST (#456539) #
The only way they get a cap is if they do an NHL - take a full season or two off. In which case I'll lose all interest in MLB as will millions of others.
uglyone - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 08:38 AM EST (#456540) #
NHLPA was really dumb to hold out that long. It was always worth it to NHL owners to miss a season to get a cap, even if it was painful. Payrolls were far too high as a percentage of revenue and rising fast.

Thing is in MLB i don't think payrolls are out of whack with revenues yet, so it's not in the owners' financial interests to shut down the league until they get a cap.
Glevin - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 08:53 AM EST (#456541) #
Imagine looking at baseball and thinking the issue is the few teams spending a lot and not the 20 teams who don't bother trying.
Glevin - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 09:01 AM EST (#456542) #
If Jays don't get Bregman, not much on hitting side that is exciting. I wouldn't mind Austin Hays though or even JD Martinez. They absolutely murder LHP. Jays are not a very splitty team but it can be an advantage to have a guy with a 139/95 WRC+ split than someone who is 104/108 or something. I like Hays more because he can play OF and I don't think there'd be much temptation to play him vs RHP the way I'd be worried Schneider would want to play Martinez.
Katie - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 09:21 AM EST (#456543) #
Austin Hays is a Red and Martinez is a pro pickleballer (or trying to be).
dalimon5 - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 09:44 AM EST (#456544) #
There are still trade options out there with teams that want to shed salary.

Lane Thomas
Luis Robert
Ryan Helsley

For the bullpen there isn't much left on the free agent market, especially from the left side. I'd prefer they bring Yarbrough back or signJalen Beeks as added depth against one or two starters going down. Matt Moore combined with Pete Walker could be interesting. David Robertson is only "plus" guy available but it a righty. At that point just trade for Helsley with your depth players and try to match up your bullpen against the Yankees.

If the Jays can get another bat like Bregman, Robert or Thomas, resign Vlad and add one more bullpen piece then this will be an A+ off season and make it much easier for the player development side to better develop players and recover the system over the next few years.

SK in NJ - Thursday, February 06 2025 @ 01:11 PM EST (#456545) #
Fully on board with trading for Luis Robert. I think he's the perfect fit with an extended (hopefully) Vladdy plus Gimenez and Santander. More controllable high upside talent closer to Vladdy's age is ideal. I can't see why the White Sox would sell this low on him, but they also have no reason to keep him considering how far away they are from competing, so who knows.

But I agree, other than Bregman, I'd probably avoid the FA market altogether. No needle movers after him.
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