What an ugly way for the Dodgers to make the LCS. The Phillies pitcher threw the ball away. 2 out, bases loaded. Ground ball hit right at him, he drops it, picks it up, panics and throws home missing the catcher by a lot while he had tons of time to throw to first and the catcher was off the plate pointing to first. What a nightmare way to lose. 2-1 in extra innings.

While waiting, I figured lets see how Vlad Sr did in the playoffs - 263/324/339 overall, made it to the World Series once (2010 age 35, went 1 for 14). His best series was probably the 2008 ALDS vs Boston for the Angels going 467/579/533 over 19 PA in a losing cause. 3 times in the ALCS, played the Yankees 3 times - two wins, 1 loss in those series with OPS of 762-985-615. Jr of course has a 308/378/564 line so far with that insane 1.609 OPS vs the Yankees the one time he has seen them in the playoffs. Jr's 3 HR vs the Yankees is 1 more than his Dad had in 10 playoff series (188 PA). His Dad still lead in RBI's 20 to 10 though. No doubt he gets reminded of that in the playful dad/son relationship they seem to have. Given Vlad Jr has 14 more years under contract odds are he gets a lot of chances to get those 10 RBI's and hopefully a couple of WS titles.

FYI: Dante Bichette hit 588/611/941 in his only playoff series - Colorado lost the NLDS to Atlanta in 1995 (Atlanta's only title during Bobby Cox' time as manager). So if Bo plays in the ALCS he will be deeper in the playoffs than his Dad ever was. Bo has hit 273/320/318 overall in the playoffs in 3 losing efforts with just 1 RBI (his dad got 3 RBI's).

ALDS Tale of the Tape:

Vladdy: .529/.550/1.059 5r 3hr 9rbi 2bb 1k
Rice: .182/.286/.273 1r 0hr 2rbi 2bb 5k

Also, Realmuto took a knee on knee hit on that play. The camera didn’t stay on him long enough to tell, but you can see him grimace on contact. I hope he’s not hurt

Vladdy had an incredible DS.

The only thing I would note about Ben Rice (if we're going to keep talking about him) is that this was his first postseason. He didn't do well in the DS, but he was good in the WC series (2/7 with a home run). He had a 97 wRC+ overall in the postseason.

Vladdy's stats in his first three postseasons were as follows:

2020: .143/.250/.143 (wRC+ 17)
2022: .125/.222/.125 (wRC+ -38)
2023: .143/.250/..286 (wRC+ 50)

So maybe we'll give Ben a pass in his first go-around.

Once again, the importance of defence.

Who was involved in the Berrios/Kikuchi decision, other than Schneider and Walker, back in 2023? Never found out, and no one else seemed to either. I remember some even accusing Atkins of making the call.

Found it interesting that Passan outlined the group that mapped out the bullpen day plan for game 4. From ESPN:

"Around 1 p.m., when they found out the Yankees' expected lineup, Schneider, Walker, assistant pitching coach Sam Greene, bullpen coach Graham Johnson and pitching game plan coordinator Luke Hoey started to map out their deployment plan. They wanted opener Louis Varland -- who the previous night had ceded a monumental and momentous Aaron Judge home run -- to get through six batters. He did, at which point, with three left-handed hitters among the next four batters, Schneider called on lefty Mason Fluharty."

Greene and Johnson were unfamiliar to me, although they are listed as part of the coaching. Hoey I had never heard of.

So, if the Jays can get to the WS will they have home field advantage? Reminder: Jays won 94 this year. 5th highest ever for a Jays team (2 of the higher won the WS, one other won the division, then there is 1987 which we don't talk about).

• Better record than Dodgers (93 wins), Cubs (92 wins)
• Worse record than Milwaukee (97 wins)

So we should, in theory, cheer on the Cubs in their game 5, then if the Jays win the ALCS they would have home field for certain in the World Series.

It's a shame that baseball is the only sport with a 7 game playoff series home field advantage being 2-3-2 - meaning if all games are won at home you face elimination twice with home field

I'm not sure home field with this structure is even an advantage.

I know its because of travel but think its unfortunate home field not worth more

Detroit has been more than the sum of their parts this year (well, for most of the year), and Seattle has been less than the sum of theirs.....but on paper Seattle is pretty scary. Scarier than the Yankees were imo.

Fangraphs Forward-Looking Combined Depth Chart Projections:

In the world series the team that starts at home in the 2-3-2 format wins about 58% of the series historically so it is probably an advantage. It is a little hard to tell as if the most wins set home field then that team might already be better, but usually the teams are somewhat similar in skill and also some years home field was determined by something mostly divorced from team quality like who won the all star game.

To Mike Green's point in the other thread about the jays utter dominance in round 1, Jayson Stark describes it thusly:

Seattle is a hard team to pin exactly because their home park is so extreme.

Here are their starters' ERAs at home and away
Gilbert: 2.24/4.74
Woo: 2.44/3.40
Castillo: 2.60/4.71
Kirby: 3.38/5.16

Fantastic staff at home, poor one on the road. Their offense is better away (116 WRC+_ to 108) but not by same margin. Obviously, Tigers look a lot easier on paper especially with Skubal being a non-factor first couple of games. Just don't think they are a particularly good team at all but in playoffs anything can happen.

yeah and those ERA/FIP projections there likely include home ballpark effects, so they're a bit misleading tbh.

but unfortunately they don't project for ERA- or FIP-.

the wRC+ projection gets rid of the ballpark effect tho so that's fine.

It’s a batting eye problem in Seattle. What it means is that Seattle’s pitching is bad to very bad and their hitting is elite. Rodriquez would have a case for MVP if he played in any other home park.

Julio home 236/306/369 (676 OPS)
Julio away 296/341/571 (912 OPS)

wow!

might as well finish of the Projections comp with the two likely NL finalists.....

I think it goes without saying that the Tigers are the more desirable matchup for the Jays. They'd only see Skubal once in the first 5 games, and the Tigers are fairly mediocre in general outside of him. Of course in a 7 game playoff series, anything can happen, but if you're just looking at the quality of opponent, it feels like the Mariners would be the much tougher matchup.

With that said, I really don't care who the Jays face. Just beat whichever team is in front of you.

To me, I think of the six teams it goes:

LA
Toronto
Seattle
Milwaukee
Detroit

With the closest two teams to each other Toronto and Seattle and clearer gaps between the other teams.

But obviously anyone can win in the post season, and Detroit does have the best single SP in these teams, so on days when he pitches Detroit might be as good or better than any of these teams.

Cubbies, Michael?

Skubal looks great, but how many innings will he be able to last tonight?

On the other side of the ledger, Kirby (no slouch himself) is off to an efficient start: 2 innings, no runs allowed, 17 pitches.

Tigers are so bad.

skubal's count way too high and tigers have no bats.

man would it be great if they somehow stole this anyways.

Skubal has really only made a few minor mistakes, if they can even be called that.

One — an inside strike FB to Polanco — ended up being harmless, a deep fly ball that went foul.

Another — not holding Naylor close at second base — hurt, as the Naylor SB led to a baserunner on third base with one out.

The only other mistake was the high strike at 98 on a 2-2 pitch that Garver hit for a SF. It was a good pitch to get an out, but perhaps the wrong pitch in that situation. A changeup low and away, or a FB several inches higher, or high and outside, might have gotten him out and kept the score 0-0.

He’s been brilliant otherwise. Can’t fault him for the Naylor hit — an excuse-me check-swing double on a 100 MPH FB on the outside edge.

leadoff double!

here we go.

Kirby out on 66 pitches and dominant just for one matchup with a good not great bat.

This is the kind of move that can bite you in the arse.

lol yep.

and now your dominant SP is out.

amazing turn of events.

Whoa. Kerry Carpenter home run, 2-1 Detroit.

Look for Skubal to go as deep as Skubally possible in this one.

now keep skubal in until his arm falls off.

137 pitches for the complete game win.

heh yep.

This is the kind of move that can bite you in the arse.

It's as if Wilson was hoping one run would be enough. It's almost never enough.

wow and now skubal is extra amped. just destroyed Cal.


i mean you gotta let skubal try to get the 7th in at least imo.

Shutdown inning B6. 101 to K Raleigh for the third out. Still has gas in the tank.

"It's as if Wilson was hoping one run would be enough. It's almost never enough"

it kinda felt like enough!.....with Kirby on the mound at least.

but as much as i can laugh at the call you know our manager woulda done the same.

I think Skubal gets the 7th and maybe even the 8th if he’s efficient getting there.

137 pitches for the complete game win.

Let's see... 99 pitches through 6... that's 16.5 per inning... he's need another 54....

He's not really going to throw 150 pitches? And strike out 18 or 19 guys?

The only thing is that Skubal had that injury scare late in the season. The organization may not want to push him and risk another physical issue. Those were six high-stress, high-octane innings for him.

It looks like Skubel is out to me by the way he's acting in dugout.

Man oh man. Taking out the best pitcher in the league on 96 pitches in a one run game....i dunno.

The are homers in most other parks.

Please please please baseball gods bail us out of this terrible pitching decision.

Inevitable. Tigers have such a bad bullpen I thought for sure Skubel would go one more.

Just an insane call in a do or die game. Man oh man.

Finnegan’s outing after taking over for Skubal:

-Very deep fly by Rodriguez
-Walk to Polanco
-Very deep fly by Suarez
-Single by Naylor

munoz looking nervous

gets out of it.

but it looks like the mariners have now burned all their good relievers.

unless they want to risk munoz going longer.

and i guess maybe they could use one of their SP.

at least let this keep going all night.

decent chance both teams are going to have to burn their top 2 SP this game.


that's nice for us.

Are you not entertained?

I don't care who wins. There are scores to settle with both of these teams.

yeah I agree with you there magpie.

I don't like bunting and I'd have hunted there.

Hoo boy!

wow this is good. baseball is fun.

(i still wouldn't have bunted there myself!)

An ideal result, both teams bringing in a starting pitcher in extra innings.
Yes, Jays have scores to settle from 1987 and 2022.

Hope this game goes at least 15. Use all your pitchers guys!

Btw, I like not having the strike zone box on the screen all the time. Not used to it at all but I like the look much better.

Crawford was 6-7 in sac bunt attempts this season - only four guys in the league had more sac hits (Isbel, and three Jays - Straw, Clement, Lukes.) So it really is surprising that he was swinging away.

Detroit hitters not named Kerry Carpenter have gone 1 for 33 tonight. And the game goes on....

27 pitches for Gilbert now.



Force him back out for more, tiggies.

Every Tigers ab every pitch is like:
Tigers hitter "they haven't thrown a fastball yet, maybe they'll throw one this time. Let me look fastball" and the Mariners pitcher just keeps throwing sliders and splitters and change ups.

ok so this bunt i agree with

I take it back. bunts are useless and wasteful and always wrong.

that hand may well be broken.

but that was clearly a foul.

Replay system is so broken.

Quite the game in Seattle

This really is a tough place to hit!

What a run prevention comeback by Detroit in the bottom of the 12th. From runners on first and second, none out, and a 3-0 count on Crawford, to a fly ball not advancing the runners and then a 1-4-3 DP to complete the scoreless inning.

You are getting tired, so tired, my pretties, but you must press on, to the point of exhaustion and beyond…

"This really is a tough place to hit!"

you can say that again!

Tigers apart from Carpenter are 3/40 with 15 K's. Is that good?

And I think to myself, "why do I watch this?"

lol 78 curve with the full count. cojones.

Jack “Houdini” Flaherty

Are you kidding me?

Jesus H. Christ in a blender

What if this game ends at 8pm on Sunday? Do they start game 1 of the ALCS eight minutes later? :)

Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
2m
History.
The longest winner-take-all postseason game in MLB history.
14 innings and counting.

Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
9m
What kind of game is this? Three of the four starting pitchers this series for both teams have pitched in it.

Flaherty approaching 50 pitches.

This is insane.

gunshow from behind the plate. wowza.

This where you need a knuckleballer in reserve in case all else fails.

foul

I wanted Detroit but if SEA continues to burn through its pitchers maybe it's better to avoid Skubal.

Interesting Gifs, UO. It looks like nobody told him The Death Star exploded a few days ago.

Prediction: Seattle wins it this inning (15th)

SPs tonight



Detroit

Skubal 99 pitches
Flaherty 43
Montero 32
Melton 17
Mize 0


Seattle

Kirby 66
Gilbert 34
Castillo 15
​Woo 0
Miller 0

Oh well, Seattle deserved it. Much better team.

and...fin.

Mariners

Detroit could have won it if they’d let Skubal go one more inning.

please be healthy, Bo.

So Seattle it (finally) is. The only batter in the starting lineup hitting over .707 in the playoffs is Raleigh. The even weaker lineup of the Tigers took them to 15 innings in 5 games. It will be interesting to see if the Jays' offense also flatlines in Seattle. But as of now it looks promising for the good guys.

Cal Raleigh is exhausted.

Well, he just caught 15 innings and 209 pitches.

Seattle might need to DH Raleigh in game 1 - he has to be dead tired and flying cross country overnight won't help him rest up for Sunday.

Interesting question what time of day will they travel.

Fangraphs has Seattle as 58-42 favourites. That seems right. It's a really good pitching staff.

As someone said above, it's an interesting what if to think about Hinch leaving Skubal in for a little longer. Giving up a hit to Rivas to tie the game is brutal, from Detroit's point of view.

Just checked Fanduel and it has the Jays -120, Mariners +102 to win the series.

It's a really good pitching staff.

They're possibly not quite as impressive when you get them out of Seattle. Here are the two ALCS staffs in neutral parks:

W   L   W-L%   ERA   IP     H    R   ER    HR   BB IBB   SO HBP    BF  WHIP   SO9 SO/W   BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS																				
40  41  .494  4.46  698    675  384  346   90  258  15  686  34  3012  1.337  8.8  2.66  .251  .322  .411  .733
39  42  .481  4.50  710.2  725  389  355  102  237  14  653  42  3076  1.354  8.3  2.76  .264  .328  .431  .759

You tell me which is which.

The flip side, alas, is that it's a much more dangerous lineup than it nay appear. They outscored the Jays 414-367 in neutral parks. Their hitters were getting killed by their own ball park - they lost 30 points of BAVG and OnBase, 50 points of slugging.

Fangraphs has Mariners in 4th at 53.6 projected war and the jays 6th at 50.0. Mariners are +1.6 in the position players at +1.9 on the pitching side.

Both teams have one key injury that we don't know if they can make the roster yet - Bo and Woo, and their injuries have similar effects on the projections.

The one part of the fangraphs projections that has bugged me for a while now is they project Varsho as only a decent defensive CF instead of an elite defensive value CF, even though he puts up elite defensive value every year including this year. That one difference would close the gap between the position player war projection between the two teams.

On the pitching side, the one variable in the jays favor is that Yesavage's projection may be underrating him just because any projection system would be regressing his small sample significantly. If he keeps being excellent then that completely closes the pitching gap too.

And of course the projections are currently blind to the fact that all our pitchers are rested and ready to go while they're goijg to have big issues trying to get their guys back near normal rest.

Seattle is a very good team. They have a very deep lineup with no weak spots and a couple of elite hitters, a deep rotation, and an elite closer and solid bullpen. Let's hope they play as poorly as they did against Detroit. Their rotation doesn't scare me although their best pitcher Woo looks likely to be back next round. Jays have some interesting choices to make. If Bo is healthy, he's obviously on for IKF but pitching has a lot more options. I'd add Scherzer and Bassit with Bassit pitching in relief and Scherzer and Lauer combining in some way (if Scherzer has looked good in throwing on side, I obviously don't know).

OCT12 Gausman (7 days rest)
OCT13 Yesavage (7)
OCT14 Off
OCT15 Bieber (7)
OCT16 Bassitt/Scherzer/Berrios (a million)
OCT17 Gausman (4)
OCT18 Off
OCT19 Yesavage (5)
OCT20 Bieber (4)

Seems like best Mariners can do in terms of starters for game 1 and 2 are Bryce Miller on short rest and Luis Castillo who pitched last night. Neither of those pitchers are scary on regular rest. Luis Castillo is not the same pitcher we faced in the 2022 playoffs. Big chance to take two at home.

Then they get back on regular rest with their horses, Kirby, Gilbert and probably Woo. Although Woo would be pitching for first time in 3+ weeks when he comes back.

T-Mobile Park may the kryptonite to the Jays offence in one sense. The park suppresses offence in two ways. The first is that it suppresses the quality of contact due to being at sea level, its large dimensions (Center and LF) and heavy marine air (particularly at night). The second is more important. The hitting eye issues juice K rates (particularly for RH pitchers). The K Rate Park Factor for T-Mobile for 2024 was 124 and for 2025 was 117. In other words, strike oit rates are 20% higher at T-Mobile than the average park. This isn’t driven by the Mariners having a strikeout heavy staff as their home and away K rate stats align to confirm it’s the park juicing their K rates. Given that one of the Jays key offensive drivers is contact, it will be interesting to see how that issue unfolds.

Miller and bullpen game game one. Would be great to get to Miller early (was bad on the road) and make the Mariners use a lot of relievers in game one. It's a big advantage of being able to set up your rotation while Seattle's is messy. Jays need to take advantage of it.

I think Seattle is going to be tougher than the Yankees. But Yesavage, home field and the Mariners rotation not ideally aligned and depleted will be key factors.

My concerns on the Jays side are with Bieber, Santander, Bo & Bassitt. Feeling strangely okay with the bullpen and pretty great about the hitting. I still think Vladdy should hit #2.

I have Jays winning in 6 or 7. (I predicted Jays winning the last series in 4 or 5 here on BB, so, so far my luck has been good.)

I think the ballpark juicing strikeouts should (relatively) help the jays, not hurt them. The fact so few Jays strikeout should mean a +20% strikeout has less impact (relatively) than on other hitting teams. In contrast, Jays pitching can benefit more from the k boost.

Seattle has 'talent', but they get a LOT of credit for supposed tools that really haven't materialized at all in the win/loss column. Even after the trade deadline, their results were up and down. You just saw them barely beat a flawed 87-win Detroit team that collapsed this season.

So when you say: Seattle has an elite lineup, elite power, elite starters, elite bullpen....the results do not match to all of these supposed individual traits.

Its the playoffs and anyone can win at this point, but I think that the Jays are the better team.

One thing I'll say is that the Mariners have kind of been less than the sum of their parts all year, and i'm not sure they impressed anyone by barely squeezing by a significantly worse tigers team.

heh - or what metafour just said better!

Frankly, I think the teams are very similar. Both have mediocre to bad pitching and both have very good to elite hitting. I think the Jays have a materially better defensive team. I suspect the randomness of hitting with runners in scoring position will determine the winner.

As that game wore on and on, it got less exciting and more revealing of two offenses that don't make much contact or move the runners. Having JP Crawford abandon the bunt attempt in whatever inning it was when SEA had a chance to end it was just baffling.

Where does this notion that Seattle has mediocre to bad pitching come from? Frankly. that's ridiculous.

Seattle is probably going to roll with four starters who have ERA's of 2.94, 3.44, 3.54 and 4.21, all of whom made at least twenty starts. (It seems likely that the Mariners may go with a bullpen game in Game 1, so I'm not counting Bryce Miller, if he starts that game, and including Woo, who seems likely to make the ALCS roster.) They all have WHIPS under 1.2. I could go on about having a rotation where George Kirby is my fourth starter.

Their top three relievers all have a K/9 of at least 11. Their fourth-best reliever has a K/9 of 9.4. Those four all have ERAs under 2.65.

My kingdom for a pitching staff with those as my top eight pitchers.

because their home park is legitimately that tough on offense.

ERAs

Woo 2.44 home / 3.40 road
Gilbert 2.24 home / 4.74 road
Castillo 2.60 home / 4.71 road
Kirby 3.38 home / 5.16 road
Hancock 4.98 home / 4.82 road
Miller 5.80 home / 5.56 road

Woo is the only one that hasn't been an absolute pumpkin on the road.


This is where adjusted stats like ERA- really help out.


Woo 77era-
Gilbert 90
Miller 92
Kirby 110
Hancock 128
Miller 148


Compared to the Jays

Yesavage 79
Gausman 88
Bieber 88
Bassitt 97
Berrios 103
Scherzer 127

Yeah Gausman, Yesavage, Bassitt, (maybe Scherzer) and definitely Bieber should excel there.

and RP

Munoz 2.38 home / 0.95 away
Brash 1.48 home / 3.52 away
Speier 1.60 home / 3.81 away
Bazardo 2.16 home / 2.92 away
Ferguson 3.02 home / 4.56 away
Jackson 3.74 home / 4.67 away
Vargas 3.96 home / 3.99 away


Overall you have two guys who have been legitimately potent outside of their home park - Woo and Munoz. The rest haven't been terrrible but have been far from fearsome.

If the thread above doesn’t explain the distortion created by the park I’m not sure this will but I’ll try. Seattle’s pitching was 24th in the MLB in road ERA and 21st in road FIP.

yep.


SEA Home: #22 .702ops / #3 3.28era, #6 3.63fip
SEA Away: #2 .776ops / #23 4.50era, #21 4.34fip

Overall: #2 113wrc+ / #18 101era-, #18 99fip-


Elite offense, middling pitching. Almost exactly like a certain other team...

SEA: #2 113wrc+ / #18 101era-, #18 99fip-
TOR: #4 112wrc+ / #19 103era-, #20 101fip-

should probably add in defense there...


SEA: #3 113wrc+, #26 -43.6def / #18 101era-, #18 99fip-
TOR: #4 112wrc+, #1 +20.6def / #19 103era-, #20 101fip-

Seattle has named Bryce Miller as game 1 starter. This is great for the Jays not only because he was terrible this year, but also they’ll have to choose between carrying 5 starters or starting him again in game 5. Jays will roll Gausman/Bieber/Yesavage twice each, only need 1 other starter.

Weirdly enough given the park effects, the Jays scored 21 runs in 3 games in Seattle this year (May 9-11) and 10 runs in 3 games in Toronto (April 18-20). Jays won 4 of the 6.

As I said above, the one clear difference between the teams is in team defence. I watch a lot of Mariners games here on the West Coast and those defensive metrics for the Mariners match the eye test. As Jonny says, Miller as a Game 1 starter is huge. It feels important to take advantage of the starting pitcher edge in Game 1 just like Game 1 of the Yankees series.

no roster announcmenet today?

Only two questions about roster I think are Bo or IKF and Bassit or Scherzer or Bassit and Scherzer? I mean, maybe they surprise but I think those are the choices.

pretty big question imo!

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
44s
John Schneider says there's likely room for some more length on the Blue Jays' ALCS roster this time, with Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt both earning consideration for spots. Both feeling good.

10am tomorrow


Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
33s
Bo Bichette hit live pitching yesterday & is running the bases today for the first time per manager John Schneider. That'll help determine whether he's good to go for ALCS roster. Decision due tomorrow morning at 10 a.m. ET.

bo video


https://x.com/hoodiegausman34/status/1976756608131608831

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
3m
Not confirmed, but John Schneider says it's a “definite possibility” that Trey Yesavage would start G2 ALCS followed by Shane Bieber G3.

Schneider also notes that "Trey wasn't pitching in Game 4" against the Yankees. He was a decoy.

Okay, that's fair that the park factors are bigger for Seattle than I thought. I still think that the strikeout numbers show that Seattle's top end relievers are problematic (not just Munoz). It will be interesting to see how the Jays contact-first approach fares.

The Mariners will start Miller in game one, but he won't go super deep and they'll probably do their own bullpen day. Miller was on the ALDS Roster, so I imagine he'll go back to his bullpen role after Game One and Woo will replace their most disposable reliver.

Essentially, Seattle will be doing the same thing the Jays are and adding a starter for a reliever. Toronto's advantage is that, notwithstanding that, they are doing a quasi-bullpen day.

No news on Bo yet eh?

Amazing to think that, after all the exciting ball thus far, we are only now at the point where the playoffs began in 92-93.

The game sure has changed, but playoff baseball remains my favourite of all the playoffs.

Having a team this fun certainly helps, all these kids and scrappy underdogs are easy to support. I could do with less swearing though....

Thinking back to Spring Training, the way this team was constructed, this is likely an ideal outcome. Schneider coming in to his own as a manager certainly helped a team with a lot of moving parts.

I'm picking the Jays in six. Let's go!

Has anyone other than me simply been assuming that of course Yesavage would get Games 2 and 6 and that this wasn't a question.

They might hold back Gausman until Game 6 for the extra rest.

I think the only time he's had just 4 days rest in the past couple months was the last day of the season vs. the Rays when he allowed 4 runs in 3.2 IP.

My guess for rotations....

1. Gausman vs Bryce Millar
2. Yesavage vs Bryan Woo (pen day basically)
   ---Offday---
3. Bieber vs Luis Castillo
4. Pen/Bassitt vs Logan Gilbert
5. Gausman vs Millar or Kirby
   ---Offday---
6. Yesavage vs Woo/Millar/Kirby depending
7. Bieber vs Gilbert (everyone available but starters of game 6) Remember - Friday night saw Kirby start (66 pitches), Gilbert (34 pitches) and Castillo (15 pitches) relieve. I could imagine them using Castillo game 2 but boy would that be risking his arm on short rest even with just 15 pitches thrown. So game 2 has those guys with 2 days rest. Woo is recovering - last pitched September 19th. I'd put him in the Bo category of 'might be ready but hasn't had real in-game experience in a long time now' which is a bigger issue for pitchers than hitters imo.
   
   No question the Jays have a massive advantage pitching wise to start this series. By game 3 things even out but if Woo isn't ready that is another big blow for Seattle. Plus I seriously doubt Raleigh will be at 100% behind the plate Sunday.

Easy for Schneider to say now, but I highly doubt if Hoffman blew the game that Yesavage or Gausman weren’t coming in instead of Bruihl or Nance. And really, what did the decoy accomplish?

Make of it what you will but Bo and Scherzer both taking photos for ALCS media day.

Bo didn’t look good running the bases today.

They could hold Gausman back for Game 6 and start Yesavage in Game 7, but I really don't see them doing that.

The price of getting Gausman one extra day rest is to have a bullpen game (presumably in Game 5, but the specifics don't matter) over a second Shane Bieber start (in Game 7). And, that bullpen game would happen on one of three games in a row, presumably after a Max Scherzer start, which could be quite short based on how Mad Max's recent outings have gone.

Even if they take Bassitt for the pen over Nance, I don't see them doing a Bassitt/bullpen day, right after Scherzer and then leaving Bieber to start once. Just my opinion.

John, I'm pretty sure Seattle's announced Woo will start in Seattle to give him more time to get healthy and, presumably, that means Castillo goes in Game 2 given how few pitches he threw yesterday.

Bo Bichette's status for the Blue Jays in the ALCS remains uncertain after he walked off the field in apparent discomfort after attempting to run the bases"

Shi Davidi.

Not ideal. There's video too and he's grimacing.

he's faking. mind games.

Reverse Decoy.

Mariners used 12 hitters in the ALDS - just 2 had 5+ PA and a wRC+ over 100 in Cal Raleigh (197) and Victor Robles (108). Their backup catcher did play (he had just a 46 wRC+ in 7 PA over 4 games). 2 hitters didn't play (they went with 14 hitters/12 pitchers) in Harry Ford (3rd C), and Ben Williamson (a 3B who was in the minors...weird). Pitching wise they used 11 of 12 - so zero trust in Emerson Hancock (RHP - 77 ERA+ over 90 IP split start/relief). Near zero in Caleb Ferguson who faced just 7 batters and got only 2 out while allowing 3 runs (ouch).

Clearly Dan Wilson doesn't run his team like Schneider does - if you are in his doghouse you ain't playing. 3 guys had over 700 PA for them vs a max of 680 for Vlad on the Jays, with only Bo also cracking 600. So no matter what Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena, and Cal Raleigh are in every game for all innings. J.P. Crawford is damn close (654 PA). Jorge Polanco was the only other guy to get over 300 PA (524) on that team. So 5 spots settled, 4 he juggled all year with some emerging (Dominic Canzone, a corner OF/DH, had a 141 wRC+ but was mostly off the bench at DH for the playoffs so far after being down except for 2 games pre June 9th). Weird, Canzone hit like a house on fire in September 365/414/635 but was mostly benched in the playoffs - he hits left handed so in a platoon he should've been in more you'd think. Weird.

Josh Naylor also is a regular, with a 137 wRC+, who was a big trade acquisition. He has 20-30 HR power. Eugenio Suárez was THE acquisition mid-season though with his 49 HR on the year (total combined) but just a 91 wRC+ for Seattle plus a 4 in the playoffs so far. A guy to watch out for as, like Santander, he'll want to show it wasn't a mistake to get him. If he gets hot he is damn dangerous, but if he stays cold...

With the Jays you know all 26 will play at some point and have a clear role to play. With Seattle there are going to be 2-4 guys who will sit and be cheerleaders only. If you are a pitcher and weren't even used in a 15 inning game then odds are you are nothing more than a cheerleader.

Dodgers vs Brewers to see who gets to the World Series. Tonight's game was anti-climatic after that wild 15 inning affair last night, but good on the Brewers, working to join the Jays to create the nightmare WS for US TV after they had their dream last year (NYY vs LAD).

Can't recall if anyone dug into the arbitration figures posed at MLBTR recently - Varsho at $9.7 mil the highest, Laurer $4.4 mil, Clement $4.3 mil, Sandlin $2 mil, Tate $1.7 mil (expect him to be non-tendered or just released), Heinemann $1 mil, Burr $800k. Nothing too 'wow' there. I suspect the Jays will try to do a long term with Varsho, might touch on one with Clement (3 years of arb left) but the rest are pure year-to-year guys at this stage. FYI: Manoah expected to get $2.2 mil from Atlanta.

But that is stuff to really dig into after (hopefully) a WS victory parade. Varsho certainly is helping his case with that wild 438/471/1.000 line in the ALDS.

I think it would be a mistake to put Bichette on the ALCS roster. Don't want to lose one of Lukes or Santander for a Bo that can't run. I also don't see how he can come back for the World Series if he is grimacing to run. Luckily, Vlad is maxing out right now which really gels well with the rest of the offense. If Springer can pick up his pace and Santander continues to get up to speed then I'm optimistic they can win this series without Bo.

It sounds like the Mariners did their media responsibilities in Seattle before flying from 4pm to 8:27pm ET Saturday (according to the Internet speculation I found most plausible).

I'll guess before they left that some of them also did Trajekt practice against Gausman, maybe some relievers, and whoever they think is starting Game 2.

No Bo sucks but having a guy who can't run or field doesn't make any sense. Mariners have all righties and only one lefty in pen so we might not see Straw except later in games as pinch runner/defensive replacement and hopefully means no IKF starts.

Has anyone other than me simply been assuming that of course Yesavage would get Games 2 and 6 and that this wasn't a question.

I've been assuming he starts Game 2 for sure. 

Even leaving aside fielding and running, I wonder how well Bo would be able to hit with a knee that is 60-70% or whatever it is right now. Might be better to continue with the rehab and target the WS for a possible return.

Bichette off the roster

Bassitt and Scherzer in for Nance and Bruihl.

...which probably should have been the choices in round 1 too tbh.

Position players exact same, which is fine. Would've prefered IKC off and Joey L in.

The roster has 5 infielders and five outfielders plus Davis Schneider who can play both. If IKF was left off Schneider would be the only infield backup.

Loperfido would make it seven outfielders, including Schneider. I think including IKF makes the roster more balanced in case of injury.

If there was an injury you're able to replace the injured player.

Not in the middle of a game.

Seems like a pretty conservative reason to include an inferior player in case of two injuries to infielders in one game.

Records vs Playoffs Teams:

TOR: 66gms, 38-28 (.576), +0.49runs/gm
SEA: 51gms, 24-27 (.471), -0.20runs/gm
NYY: 62gms, 28-34 (.452), -0.31runs/gm
DET: 56gms, 25-31 (.446), -0.23runs/gm

Probably not too shocking that SEA/DET was a tight series with a slight edge to SEA, while TOR blew out NYY.

You know who had the lowest FIP on the Jays, minimum 10 innings pitcher?

Tommy Nance.

It makes sense to drop the reliever Schneider doesn't trust to get length in this series, especially with the uncertainty around Scherzer, who will presumably start Game 4, but I don't seem how you can argue that the Jays should have added a fifth starter over him to ALDS, when the Jays didn't even use a fourth starter, and had an off-day ever third day.

I think schneider got a bit cute in round 1 and probably realizes he was a bit lucky. The pitching staff wasn't far off from being in really bad shape, especially if it had gone to 5gms. He's lucky the yanks bats were as bad as they were or else it could have gone sideways quick. And then he saw Warren eat up 5 innings in a blowout loss and realized that that kind of asset is more valuable in a series than a short reliever you don't trust (Nance had super duper low leverage this season and then got torched last series).

I'm assuming Bassitt is the game 4 starter tho. Max is probably the mop up guy.

In the ALDS you had to factor in the many good LH hitters the Yankees had, now you need to factor in how Seattle is a set lineup team that doesn't do a lot of PH or defensive subs. So guys who can last might be more important that matchups. Seattle's normal lineup has 3 LH, 4 RH, 2 Switch with DH being a platoon of Canzone and Garver it seems. Never a set of LH bats grouped together or RH bats grouped. Closest seems to be at the top with R/S/R/S but given most switch hitters do better from the left side (more in game swings) odds are it isn't wise to focus on matchups. Thus no need for LH specialists.

Seattle has released their list - the injured Woo is back, just 2 LH pitchers on the roster so expect our LH hitters to get lots of playing time (Barger, Lukes, Gimenez) which probably contributed to not rostering Bo as well (few chances to use him as a PH). The 2 LH are Ferguson (70 G 65 IP 3.58 ERA) and Speier (76 G 62 IP 2.61 ERA) - 4 2/3 IP total between them in the ALDS. If used they will face the minimum of 3 and that is it from what I'm seeing here.

Scherzer’s main problem this year was HRs, so it makes sense to start him @ Seattle. Bassitt does weird well, and will be a reliever.

Nance’s FIP isn’t relevant if Schneider isn’t using him as a high leverage guy.

I think Scherzer most likely for game 4 because I think Bassit probably way more comfortable out of pen. Nance would have been I dropped too. He's pitched well but very small sample size and pretty much only low leverage.

We can discuss role suitability and all but i think we forget that Bassitt was actually solid this year, while Scherzer just wasn't.


Season:

Bassitt 5.5ip/gm, 97era-, 95fip-, 92xfip-, 2.3war/32gms
Scherzer 5.0ip/gm, 127era-, 118fip-, 109xfip-, 0.6war/32gms


Since Trade Deadline:

Bassitt 5.3ip/gm, 79era-, 92fip-, 101xfip-, 3.0war/32gms
Scherzer 5.0ip/gm, 133era-, 124fip-, 120xfip-, 0.2war/32gms


Bassitt was actually more than just solid towards the end of the year. I think maybe we thought his IR was a fake one, but he was actually on a dominant 5-game run right before his final start of the year:

5gms, 5.5ip/gm, 57era-, 59fip-, 76xfip-, 5.1war/32gms

it looked like he was heating up just in time for the playoffs but then he had the one bad start in TB and then went on the IR.



For me Bassitt should start because he was actually good this year, and Scherzer just plain wasn't.

Stats as SP only (awar = average of fipwar and ra9war):


Woo: 30gms, 6.2ip/gm, 77era-, 86fip-, 79xfip-, 4.5waar/32gms
Gausman: 32gms, 6.0ip/gm, 88era-, 80fip-, 90xfip-, 4.0awar/32gms

Kirby 23gms, 5.5ip/gm, 110era-, 84fip-, 77xfip-, 2.5awar/32gms
Bieber: 7gms, 5.8ip/gm, 88era-, 106fip-, 80xfip-, 2.7awar/32gms

Gilbert 25gms, 5.2ip/gm, 90era-, 83fip-, 70xfip-, 3.1awar/32gms
Yesavage: 3gms, 4.7ip/gm, 79era-, 55fip-, 77xfip-, 4.3awar/32gms

Castillo 32gms, 5.7ip/gm, 92era-, 97fip-, 98xfip-, 2.8awar/32gms
Bassitt: 31gms, 5.5ip/gm, 98era-, 95fip-, 92xfip-, 2.4awar/32gms

Hancock 16gms, 5.1ip/gm, 136era-, 134fip-, 113xfip-, -0.2awar/32gms
Lauer: 15gms, 4.9ip/gm, 93era-, 103fip-, 101xfip-, 2.1awar/32gms

Evans: 15gms, 5.2ip/gm, 114era-, 128fip-, 116xfip-, -0.1awar/32gms
Berrios: 30gms, 5.5ip/gm, 100era-, 108fip-, 106xfip-, 1.6awar/32gms

Miller 18gms, 5.0ip/gm, 148era-, 130fip-, 110xfip-, -0.4awar/32gms
Scherzer: 17gms, 5.0ip/gm, 127era-, 118fip-, 109xfip-, 0.6awar/32gms

Hitters since deadline:

TOR: 5.35runs/gm (#4), .328obp (#5), .186iso (#6), 117wrc+ (#5), -1.9bsr (#24), +9.9def (#1), 11.7war (#4)
SEA: 5.15runs/gm (#5), .321obp (#14), .197iso (#4), 117wrc+ (#5), +0.4bsr (#15), -11.3def (#25), 9.9war (#6)


Pitchers since deadline:

TOR: 4.31ra/gm (#15), 100k%+ (#17), 109bb%+ (#7), 99era- (#15), 98fip- (#15), 98xfip- (#15)
SEA: 4.19ra/gm (#10), 114k%+ (#4), 71bb%+ (#30), 102era- (#18), 94fip- (#10), 82xfip- (#1)

Key to seattle's pitching is not to chase. They walk a lot of guys.


Overall it's basically two very comparable offenses, while SEA has good (not great) pitching and TOR has average pitching, but then TOR has elite defense and SEA has terrible defense.

My guess is game 4 is Scherzer for a max of 2 times through, then Bassitt starts the next inning for a max of 2 more times through the order. So most likely 4 innings each then Hoffman to finish it. I suspect Bassitt would be best out of the pen due to showing a willingness to do so before but it would basically be a tandem start with a reliever to bridge it if Scherzer comes out early/mid-inning. Then you mix in that it'd be in a pitchers park thus reducing the issues with the long ball both have had this year and it works out well. Same for Bieber starting in Seattle. Gauzman has the best HR/9 among starters outsize of Yesavage and his 0 HR so far so having those 2 start at home makes a TON of sense. If game 5 and beyond are needed we'll see what the Jays do. If they are ahead they might get cute and try to have Gausman and Yesavage for games 6/7 with a pen day for game 5.

Milwaukee was 6-0 against the Dodgers this year. I hope that trend will continue.

Josh Naylor had 19 steals this season. He's also listed at 5ft10 and 235 pounds. Is he catching pitchers by surprise or just fast for his size?

"Is he catching pitchers by surprise or just fast for his size?"

Yes.

Is he catching pitchers by surprise or just fast for his size?

Strange year for Naylor and Soto on the bases given their Savant speed percentiles being 3 and 13, respectively. You'd think that pitchers would eventually cotton on.

Oh, and Naylor was 30-2 on the bases. 19 of those steals came as a Mariner in a third of a season.

They walk a lot of guys.

Except for George Kirby, whose 1.3 BB/9 (career-worst 2.1 this season) puts him somewhere on a top 20 list with a whole bunch of black-and-white photos on BBRef.