One more trip to Buffalo for Lazaro Estrada. Paul Sewald has arrived.

that's his last option for the year. If he comes up again he has to stay or be put through waivers. Not sure I would have wasted that on a paternity leave.

Feels like today is the fullest lineup we've seen in a long while, especially given straw nevwr feels like a starter even when he might be.

Anthony Santander update...he is hitting off a tee. That's all I got.

As you may have noticed, I haven't been paying much attention to this 2026 baseball season. (Not sure why, although it's possible I knew in my bones that after 2025 whatever came next could only be a letdown.) But one of those weird questions rumbled unexpectedly through my cerebral cortex, one thing led to another, and just when I thought I was out....

What is the most common batter-pitcher matchup that resulted in a home run? Or a strikeout? Or a hit?

Well, that last one might be easy. It would surely come from the time before 1960, when there were just eight teams in each league, and you played the other guys more than 20 times every season.

This applies to home runs as well, but to a lesser degree - they're not nearly as numerous as hits or strikeouts, which gives weird random things a chance.

And strikeouts have exploded on the game these last few decades - well, hitters are striking out far more often than ever before although although individual pitchers are accumulating fewer.

Anyway, Bridgekeeper, I think I've found the answers to these questions three.

Thanks Gerry. Springer looks busted in his shoulder. If Santander could ramp up for the last 10 games or so it would be huge if healthy and the team still competing.

Ben Nicholson-Smith@bnicholsonsmith

Heard Blue Jays are strongly considering a Ricky Tiedemann promotion & he could be in the majors as soon as tomorrow

As a founding member of the “ride em hard and put em away wet” school of pitching volume management, I am entirely for this.

Feels like this series could go very well (scraping out 2+ wins) or very badly (getting dominated by the quality NYY starting pitching and winning 0-1 games). Hoping Toronto can stay hot.

Last year I (controversially) suggested Rice might produce more value than Vladdy especially given their respective contracts. I won’t list their current stats and salaries, as that would be mean.

I'm just accepting the likely loss tomorrow. Wouldn't be stunned if they got no-hit. I'm hoping they off-set that by winning the other two.

Strong first inning for Bieber. Mostly pitched on the edges, established his FB, changed speeds, no walks.

Would love to see the Blue Jays build a lead instead of going scoreless for half the game or more.

Vladdy. Stop doing that. Cole set him up perfectly with a FB on the outside edge. Of course Vladdy was going to swing at that; of course it would be a DP ball.

You don’t want to overstate it, but that gift could really set the Yankees up for success in the series, with Cole off the hook and on a very low pitch count.

I can’t remember the last time I saw Vladdy work the count.

greenfrog, you compared him to Vladdy with the big value difference being that Vladdy cost WAY more than Rice did which made Rice a lot more "valuable." I found that comparison silly because you were comparing a rookie to a player who just reached free agency. There was likely no scenario where Vlad would have more "value" than Rice when one signed one of the largest free agent deals compared to another on the 2nd year of his professional career.

A better comparison would have been to compare Vlad's value in year 2 of his career to Ben Rice or to project what Ben Rice will make in his first year post free agency.

It turns out that Ben Rice has actually been the better player for long stretches of the past 2 years compared to Vlad, but that was never your argument. It was always "The NYY are getting good or better value from their 1B compared to Toronto," which is not something this FO could control anyhow unless they got rid of Vlad to try to find another 1B making no money and producing numbers.

I still don't understand the fixation you have with Ben Rice compared to Vlad or former players this FO doesn't sign who have some level of success (long or short) like Dwight Smith Jr, Bergen, Otto Lopez, etc.

At this point I will not question the validity of any premise centered around "Ben Rice is really really good and on a really good player contract right now which really really helps the Yankees." Can't doubt that anymore, that's for sure.

The Yankees are loaded with left bats.
Tiedemann makes a lot of sense.
Sewald would have to face 2 lefties unless they walk one.
Not good.

When you have good chances to score against Cole in the first couple of innings and you squander them, it usually doesn’t end well for your team.

It’s too early to know if they are permanent but Okamoto has Varshoesque holes in his swing. It will be fatal to his being an everyday player if those are permanent.

Great defensive play by Lukes.

Not much to say other than Vlad is literally abysmal... very, very curious what they do with him in the off-season.
Uglyone, I know your projections will say he still projects for a 130 wRC+ or something for the remainder of the season but I'll bet my life savings on the under for that.

Yes that play helped saved Bieber from a potentially painful inning.

The Blue Jays have done pretty much the opposite of what they wanted to do against Cole. Zero runs and hacking early in the count is setting Cole up for a long outing.

We’ve learned that Bateman has a pretty good arm so that’s a plus.

I know I’m probably alone in this but I’d take a flyer on Bieber next year if he was willing. I know that the underlying numbers are bad and he making some bad pitches. But, you can also see flashes of quality pitching. It isn’t consistent and the SL looks to have lost some bite that maybe never comes back. There’s a chance that a healthy off-season could bring more of the quality forward. Gone are the days of him being an elite starter but I could see a return to being a very useful mid rotation starter. But that’s just me.

Nigel, would you make a QO to Bieber? I imagine some team will make him at least a two-year offer.

Can I reserve judgment on that for a couple more starts? Lol

Today I wouldn’t but I could see making him a 2 year $20m offer with some incentives (or something like that.

Good inning by Bieber. He’s showing some grit tonight. Wish the Blue Jays could do *something* — anything — on offense.

FWIW Bieber may be invented to take a one year deal to help restore his value even if he’s offered multiple years.

No idea why autocorrect changed incented to invented:(

The two key PA for the Blue Jays in the first half were Vladdy’s first inning one after Lukes walked, and Okamoto’s with runners on second and third with one out. Neither went well.

Cole has been working the outside half of the plate with his FB. Unfortunately, for the most part, the Blue Jays have been trying to pull that pitch instead of driving it the other way.

Probably the ballgame. I don’t think Toronto is going to score a run tonight.

Because incented is a made up word used to trick students

Nigel, come on now. That’s less than Ponce got and is essentially Straw money. I don’t think Bieber will have a hard time getting more than 10M per year.

Incentivized maybe.

Love the rally.

Don’t love the way VGJ looked after the collision.

Guessing Vladdy will be placed on the 7-day concussion IL.

Damn, then I’m incented (a real word mind you:)) to find a different word.

Sure, call me crazy, I’m often wrong about contracts but Bieber has thrown less than 100 innings total in the last 3 years and has been replacement level or so in those innings. There may be a lineup of teams wanting to give him 2/30-2/40 but the Jays should not be one of them if there are.

If Vlad does go on the IL, I’d love to see Daz Cameron come up but I’m guessing it would be Keys.

I could see a team like LAA or LAD coming up with a one- or two-year deal with incentives to land Bieber (who is from California).

On the other hand, he and his wife seem to have appreciated their time in Toronto.

It seems incent is Yankee speech. Something Trump would use.

Bateman is incredible. Lifesaver and high end Kawasaki.

Might be short a setup guy here.

They're almost all left bats but they have right bats on the bench.

Good bullpen management by Schneider. Pitching staff has stepped up so far. One inning to go.

Good use of Flu. Going after guys who they won't pinch hit for.

Incent is American business speech. My "trick students" comment was a joke stolen from Creed Bratton in the great "whomever" debate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTQ7vhtp23w

Welcome to the Big Leagues.

Using American business speech outside of business meeting makes one sounds lost and confused.

Sounds like the Blue Jays will be 1 GB if they can hold on.

Oh man. I hope we don’t lose Gimenez now too. Ouch

Fair enough. I’ll just say, I’m incented to be a Bateman fan. He looks like a major league player to me.

Not really passing anyone. 4 games below .500.

Using American business speech outside of business meeting makes one sounds lost and confused.

Are you the speech police? Using a word correctly, whether it's arcane or not, hardly makes one sound "lost and confused".

No idea what that means. Where's the incentive?

Anyway, fangraphs rated Bateman a 35+. Hit 35/55 run 60/60 Fielding 40/50 Throw 40.
Fielding might be subjective, but throw? Too much guess work, probably.

"Using a word correctly, whether it's arcane or not, hardly makes one sound "lost and confused"."

Whenever I heard incented used in conversation it was in marketing meetings that also used 'ladder' as a verb, and 'ask' as a noun.

If Brett Bateman needs a role model... Brett Butler was also a 5-10 centre fielder, who also batted and threw left handed. He was anoither unheralded prospect (drafted in the 23rd round) who made his MLB debut at age 24. Butler played 17 seasons and knocked out 2,375 hits. Just 54 of them were homers.

Get that OBP up above .370 and he'll be fine, methinks.

On that basis I will never use the word incented again. In any context! I feel dirty now:(. I don’t work in a world where marketing speak has any place:(

Fantastic win. Great defense was really the story but Bateman looks like a player to me.

In the end, it'll be the undying faith and optimism of battersbox.ca that gets our boys over the line!

Great work, everyone!

Bateman might have a bit of Luis Arraez in him (effective soft-contact hitter), but with more speed and less elite bat-to-ball ability.

Keep rolling! Winning is great. Beating Red Sox and Yankees is even better.

I hate that this game was inaccessible. One of the stupidest things about baseball? I lived overseas for a few years and got MLB app and could see every game I wanted. Move back to Toronto, and I need MLB app for non-Jays games, Sportsnet, and Apple and in the US it's even worse. Just so silly.

this was the night Tiedemann should have gotten in the game (2 days rest) which is either a sign he's held back to get promoted or...another sort of sign

Maybe we’ll see Tiedemann and Keys (or Davis?) added for tomorrow’s game…?

Would it be too much pressure on Tiedemann to be the opener tomorrow, pitching to Grisham Rice Jones before turning the ball over to SWR or another bulk pitcher?

Hey this is fun! We are getting wins, seeing kids play, what more could've we asked for? Bateman doing well - if Gausman being delt results in the Jays having a legit leadoff guy (speed, high OBP) that'd be wonderful. Kirk has returned to being himself lately. Vlad showing signs of life, lets hope he isn't hurt. Bieber looking decent, if he can be his best self the Jays have a great front 3 in Cease-Soriano-Bieber while Scherzer-whoever isn't the worst back end. Hope is here and alive somehow. It shouldn't be at 4 games sub 500, but it is.

Re: Ben Rice, https://x.com/TJStats/status/2088291733192724719?s=20

"Would it be too much pressure..."

I can't guess at the psychology of athletes in situations like this but looking at it as a sort of "simulation" logic - I can see maybe an argument for doing something like that in a game where the odds are stacked hard against you. Better in a way to just clear that pressure out of the way in a situation where the game is not on the line rather than, say, some 7th inning leverage moment.

Makes sense. I could see the opener conditions tomorrow — pitching the first inning at home, against the Yankees, in a pennant race, before a sold-out crowd — being a lot to ask of Tiedemann. But he might be up for it.

I think Bieber is definitely worth QO if he finishes the season pitching quality starts (don't even have to be as good as this one). As long as no injury and no blow ups. If he has 1 or 2 more blow ups and/or mostly struggles to put up 5-7 innings with no more than 3 runs than maybe not; and, if there's any sign of injuries likely to last than surely not.

I'd say he's unlikely to accept the QO as someone will likely give him 2-3 years at 15+M/year if he finishes the season well. But maybe not and 1 year at 22M or whatever it ends up being is good if he ends the year good.

Wilner reports that Fisher will Open tomorrow.

I tend to agree about the QO but think it's at least 50-50 he'd accept given the lock-out but it's worth noting that without a big free agent signing, there's a lot of moving parts for next spring, assuming health (which of course we dare not)

Cease
Soriano
Yesavage
Ponce
Arrighetti

Tallion* - seems like a pretty clean match to come back on a minor league or split deal to rebuild
Miles - can ramp up through ST and then be cut back to serve the Hoffman role if he's not needed in the rotation (or pitches so well they would be foolish to not find a rotation spot for him)
Bloss - assuming the new injury is healed
Tiedemann - smilar to Miles, ramp him up through ST even if you plan to use him next year similarly to how they used Miles this year
SWR - assuming he sticks on the roster all winter, which would be a sign they think he might help
Dallas - I mean, if you're down to the 10th guy...
Francis** - may or may not be ready and rehabbed when the season starts
Klien - see below
Stephan - neither of these guys have engendered hope yet
Perry - might be good enough to largely skip AAA, or be considered ready and just be staying ready until needed. Could easily leap past everyone here below Tiedemann
Thompson - if healthy I'd bet he pitches some important innings for the Jays next year but maybe not until the second half.

So I'd not be surprised if they thought to slide Bieber in front of Ponce since Arreghetti has options. But I don't think they are under intense pressure to add a top-5 guy because, other than mega-deal guys (which they might, who knows?) there's not a lot of guys that you'd feel real good about handing a multi-year deal on the market this winter.

Which - to come full circle - creates a certain appeal to adding a guy you know on a one-year commitment.

Gate 14 reporting Tiedemann will be up. They're pretty damn reliable and friends with the players.

1.0gms back

Is Texas in free fall? Losing four in a row to the Angels and A's is...not good. But I hope they continue. The out of town scoreboard could hardly have landed better than tonight, save Baltimore holding off the Rays.

As mentioned, I’m guessing Vladdy will end up on the IL for a stretch, the way Kirk and Springer did last year after head injuries. If Vladdy needs a mental and physical break, a week or two on the sidelines could be good for him. You just hope it doesn’t end up being longer than that.

I think a short IL break would be ideal for Vladdy. Let him mentally reset and come back and hit like he can.

Very good summary TamRa on the rotation next year.

Apparently the Jays have played way more games against teams with winning records (73) than any other AL team (60 max). They're 32-41 in those games.

They're 28-23 against the rest.

These 8gms left in a row against NYY and TB are the last games of the season against teams with winning records.

Shi says Ricky T and Daz Cameron are in the locker room.

Just posted this noon yesterday in response to the bad August stats discussion.
"Jays have played 13 August games, every one vs a team currently over .500. Shocking our stats aren't better. In fact, our stats will almost assuredly get worse over the next 9 days as its NYY, TB, NYY.

But our last 30 games are all against teams that currently have losing records, with 18 of those vs teams behind us in the standings. Wild guess that our stats will miraculously improve during that final stretch."

I would have personally given Sean Keys some run here instead of Dax Cameron.

It not being keys maybe means it's not a big injury for vlad.

The free falling teams are Cleveland and Seattle.

The Yankees are 32-31 since Judge went down, and 9-9 without Bellinger. Rice is ice cold. Tough to beat them in a series that has you facing Cole and Schlittler, so at least they miss Cole in the next one and have Cease and Soriano lined up for two of the games.

Vladdy has been a negative player for 3.5 months now, so as crazy as it sounds they aren’t actually any worse if he needs to go on the IL. This allows them to shift Okamoto to 1B to get Clement at 3B on days Smith starts over McAdoo.

It’s great to use Tiedemann’s bullets at the MLB level, but he better be able to go more than one inning every three days.

Who can we least afford to lose for any lengthy stretch?

In my mind, 8 pitchers are high on the list - our 4 healthy starters, Varland, Rogers, Miles and Fluharty.

Kirk and Gimenez on the position side are the only ones in my top 10.

Genuinely curious if Cam Schlittler has faced a weaker lineup this year than the one the Jays are running out today.
Kirk, Sanchez and Kaz are probably the only MLB bats and they are all league average. 

Chris he definitely has faced a weaker line up, the last time he faced the Jays. Without Bateman and the recent improvements from guys like Kirk and Gimenez that line up he faced last time was spoiled rotten.

Schlittler has also been dominant on the road this year: 1.10 ERA.

Early this season I predicted Schlittler would win the AL Cy Young. Would be nice to see the Blue Jays put a dent in that possibility today, and elevate Cease’s Cy Young chances tomorrow.

I guess the Jays have decided to use whatever bullets Ricky Tiedemann has left before his arm falls off.

A couple of posters have mentioned this but there has been a noticeable uptick in team defence in the last 3-4 weeks. There have been some personnel tweaks but I think those changes should be (in theory) neutral. It all just reinforces my view that defence can slump like hitting and pitching. Moving Okamoto to first for a bit may further improve things.

Bateman seems to have helped as well. He caught 11 of the 27 outs last night.

Even with the godlike praise-demanding eliteness of Rice and Schlittler, the yankees are a .500 team since judge went out.

Tiedemann activated for Lee.

Jays waiting on concussion testing for Vlad. Cameron will be activated if he has to go on IL.

Tiedemann has pitched in three games for Buffalo. Three innings, five hits, two walks, WHIP 2.33. ERA 12.00. Four K's in the five innings.

Nice promotion if you can get it.

Batema’s defence does look promising but it’s early days. He definitely has a stronger arm than Varsho (super low bar after Varsho’s shoulder injury) but I don’t know if he represents an upgrade over 2026 Varsho or not. Bateman’s biggest contribution right now seems to be his energy/enthusiasm level.

Ricky got .500 babipped in his brief aaa stint.

The 3 run inning featured 2 infield hits and the 1 run inning caused partially by a kasevich error.

Lots of negativity about Ricky T's future health.

That's the sort of thinking that allowed us to grab Spencer Miles.

"godlike praise-demanding eliteness of Rice"

Did you see JB21's post yesterday? You didn't, did you?

Largest drops 1st half wRC+/2nd half wRC+

Tied for 1st with a 97 drop :
Ben Rice 168/71
Otto Lopez 137/40

Yep. I even made that same post a couple days ago!

The police are back.

say what you will about the Jays lineup today, the Yankees lineup features five hitters hitting .225 or less (yeah, i know, it's just BA but still)

Vlad to IL.

7 day IL

Lazaro DFA'd.  

Mildly surprised it's Estrada instead of Van Eck...but Laz can't be optioned again this season so they might think he's more likely to clear.

I’d like to see the Jays attempt a steal instead of bunting.

Sanchez' defense is so bad. Love what Bateman brings to the game. Jays just didn't have any speed guys. Want to see the Jays run with him some though.

Not sure Ricky is really ready for this yet but time will tell.

heh Ricky with the premature rookie strut.

good stuff kiddo, nice to finally meet you.

That inning definitely looked way better

Tiedemann looked good especially given that it was his first MLB outing and occurred in a WC race. This seems like a good role for him, 1-2 inning pitcher (eventual leverage arm out of the pen). Nice that he was able to post a K via his third pitch, the changeup.

steal 2nd

Really unfortunate for MacAdoo. Loved that AB from Bateman. They are working Schlittler.

Ricky

FA 96.1 swinging strike
FA 96.3 ball
SW 81.4 hit (85.0ev flare)

SW 80.8 ball
SW 80.8 pop out

SW 80.5 strike
SW 82.0 ball
FA 96.8 ball
SW 81.2 hit (87.3ev linedrive)

FA 93.8 ball
FA 96.6 strike
SW 81.4 out (107.2ev linedrive)

SW 81.9 foul
SW 81.8 strike
SW 82.2 swinging strike
SW 80.1 strike

SW 81.7 swinging strike
FA 96.2 ball
FA 96.3 ball
SW 82.4 out (98.6ev flyball)

FA 96.1 foul
SW 82.4 ball
SW 81.4 strike
FA 97.2 foul
SW 82.6 ball
FA 96.2 foul
CH 86.5 strike

Thank you Jazz hands.

Sanchez-Okamoto having a tough day.

Finally forcing a starter to throw a lot of pitches.

Beyond tired of Sanchez these days. The epitome of replacement level.

Leadoff walk to Lombard, who is fast…not good. Probably around 50% chance he scores.

Great play McAdoo

McAdoo's swing might not be pretty but i love the way he throws the ball.

8 pitches thrown by Schlittler in the fifth inning. His pitch count is not actually that high. He'll probably throw 6 or 7 innings.

Ok just make sure this is his last inning.

Love that PA by Sanchez. Worked the count full then walked. Stopped chasing balls. Upped the pitch count.

Ok Gimenez have a patented gritty playoff at bat here and knock him out of the game.

Oh nice they took him out anyways.

Let's win this thing.

i pinch hit clement here honestly.

Advantage Blue Jays at this point. Let’s see if they can capitalize.

Kids coming through big-time in this game. Bateman. McAdoo. Tiedemann. Spencer.

Hey Nigel, there's your Brett Butler bunt!

1) why not pinch hit Cameron for Lukes against the leftie?
2) what on earth was that bunt call?

who said Bateman couldn't bunt?

I’m sticking with my Butler comp:). He sure is a fun player and he would solve a bunch of roster issues.

There have been a lot of good ABs up and down the lineup today even if they haven’t always produced.

The 2026 Jays have weirdly morphed into a 1980’s Whitey Herzog Cardinals team.

The problem with Varsho is that they needed a high OBP left bat more than a high slugging left bat, which they already have in Sanchez.

Can't stop, won't stop.

Nice one, Nigel.

Brett Butler career wRC+ 115

Brett Bateman career wRC+ 114

Amazing. Go for a sweep with Cease tomorrow.

Incredible stuff. It feels like the Dome is to the Yankees what the Trop is to us. You love to see it.

Currently tied for WC3

Brett Bateman needs Huey Lewis and the News for walk up music before he leaves for his 8:30 Rez at Dorsia's.

3 games under .500.
Huge game tomorrow.

Who wants to post the playoff odds and compare them to 2 weeks ago...what was it, below 5% and no chance?

Vibes are starting to feel like 2025…the team has a different skillset but similarly resourceful. They are finding ways to win.

Props to the team for even getting to this point. Fun to watch the team scrap wins together.

4-way tie for WC3 is a pretty amazing run in the short time. Doubly so when the offense hasn't really woken up.

I think we should be listed as the top of the 4 teams since we are dealing with below 500 teams so the fact that we have 1 win and 1 loss on most of the teams should mean we are ahead of them since the teams we are tied with are slightly more likely to lose a game than win a game.

But of course since 2 of them are playing tonight we are most likely to be 0.5 games back at the end of the day, so enjoy the tie while we can.

In theory with Cease going tomorrow we should be favorites, but it would be nice if we could score some runs early and take some of the pressure off the bullpen/starters who are clearly more than doing their job carrying the team.

Wonder if the Blue Jays can catch Boston.

Now the task is to overcome the Sunday curse.

Last Sunday win on June 7, 0-8 (and a rainout) since.

(Continuing to re-engage...) I see that Nigel beat me by days, if not weeks, on the Butler-Bateman comp. Clearly, I have some catching up to do. One more thing there - Butler came up at age 24, but he really didn't emerge as a good [player until his age 28 season.

As for my three questions earlier, as best as I can tell....

Duke Snider hit 19 HRs off Robin Roberts, edging out the 18 Willie Mays hit against Warren Spahn. For a more recent HR hitter, the most David Ortiz hit against anyone was 6 (off Roy Halladay.) Miguel Cabrera hit 7 against Phil Hughes. Barry Bonds topped out at 8 against Chan Ho Park and some other guys.

Hits had what I thought was an obvious answer, and yeah, Ty Cobb had 118 hits against Walter Johnson. Derek Jeter, sixth on the all-time list, played 20 seasons in the AL and didn't have that many at bats against anyone. (His most, for H and ABs, was 34-114 against Tim Wakefield.) Stan Musial is the only other guy I found with more than 100 hits against the same pitcher (104 against Spahn.)

The matchup most likely to result in a strikeout was Bert Blyleven pitching to Reggie Jackson, which resulted in 49 whiffs. Comfortably ahead of Tom Seaver-Tony Perez and Bob Gibson-Willie Stargell (41 in both cases.)

Bateman's minor-league stats across four seasons:
1383 PA, .280/.396/.341, 83:18 SB:CS, 220:254 BB:K
Butler's minor-league stats across four seasons were better:
1668 PA, .338/.461/.452, 161:59 SB:CS, 302:183 BB:K
Bateman as Butler-lite would still be a very good find for the Blue Jays.

What I know is that I don't want the Jays to catch Boston.
Wildcard series in Yankees Stadium would be OK, maybe but then a series against the Rays with Cease and Soriano only pitching once if at all? Hard pass.

Wildcard series against the central or AL West and then facing the other one in the semis? That would be great.

Odds of getting that last wildcard slot is still only around 15%.

FG says the Blue Jays have a 21% chance of making the playoffs. They were down to about 5-6% a couple of weeks ago.

I haven’t beaten anyone to anything in weeks in a loooong time:).

The odds of Bateman being as good as someone who would be in the Hall of the Very Good are low. One big difference between Butler and Bateman is that Bateman k’s way more than Butler. That’s a big issue for someone with little power. I do think they profile in similar ways. I’m more optimistic of what he could be than the bulk of the industry of minor league profilers.

Look at the Jays’ needs that he could fill: CF, speed, LHH OBP, lead off hitter, game starting pain in the arse for the opposition.

People need to remember that Butler was playing in a lower strikeout environment than now. I havent done the translation, but I suspect he'd still be better than the 7 games or so Bateman has,as well as his minor league record. But it would be closer.
I would be happy with a Butler -lite.
Hopefully it's a performance he can keep up.

Bateman might not be high end but the improvement from 2026 Varsho to Bateman is astronomical. Varsho's been bad, Hoffman's been mediocre and Gausman continues to be inconsistent with another 6ER start this week.

The front office did some tidy business this trade deadline to shore up the roster for now and then.

Yep and Bateman has zero service time, so he is way cheaper than Varsho or Straw. If he can play CF and post 2+ WAR next year, that would be a big win for the Blue Jays. It's early days in his career, of course. 

Bateman might be a bit like Steven Kwan as well, 170lb LH contact-oriented bat who can hit near the top of the order, steal a base, and play good OF defense.

Hoffman gave up 1 run over a two plus month span and you call that mediocre??

Yeah given how they were playing this year Hoffman was the real loss at the deadline. Hoffman was very, very good once he was removed from the closer role.

The pitching has been excellent since the deadline, but even though the bullpen has been very good in that period, we've been both lucky and good especially in the non-top 2-3 guys where Hoffman would have lengthened the pen.

But yeah, even at the trade deadline a bunch of us were saying that we were only marginally worse this year post trade, and potentially better for next year forward, so it wasn't a total white flag trades at the deadline.

Still I don't think many of us expected us to hit a (tied for) WC spot so quickly, especially without our offense kicking back into gear. I thought we likely needed Vlad to turn into VLAD! to have a good chance, which was completely orthogonal to any deadline deals made or not made.

on one hand it's gratifying to see that the Rays CAN lose at home, on the other hand it's not supposed to be Baltimore doing it.

If Cease pitches 5 or 6 innings tomorrow in a close game, who pitches the rest of the game for the Blue Jays?

Lázaro Estrada pitching 3 days in a row was definitely an exception.

Hoffman

w/Jays: 116.0ip, 102era-, 92fip-, 78xfip-
w/Twins: 5.0ip, 54era-, 92fip-, 129xfip-

Mediocre.

Bullpen since deadline

Varland 7.2ip, 2.35era
Rogers 8.1ip, 1.08era
Miles 6.0ip, 3.00era
Fluharty 6.0ip, 0.00era
Fisher 9.0ip, 0.00era
SWR 5.1ip, 1.69era
Little 4.2ip, 1.93era

(Hoffman 5.0ip, 3.60era)

Tiedemann 1.2ip, 5.40era
Lee 4.2ip, 7.71era
Estrada 3.2ip, 7.36era
Waldron 2.1ip, 11.57era
Dallas 3.0ip, 18.00era

Fluharty and Fisher were used like rented mules earlier this year and they both went through a bad performance blip in late June and July as a consequence. Little giving a little (pun intended) blast of performance has lowered Fluharty’s usage and he’s trended up. Fisher is still being leaned on hard but Miles has taken some of his leverage role so that has helped. The pen has been great recently but tomorrow things are very thin.

Chris, obviously I am referring to Gausman, Varsho and Hoffman's stats since the trade deadline... Ugly you understood perfectly.

It seems insane to me, looking at run differential, that the Jays at -56 and Tigers at +85 have the exact same record.. And the Rays at +60 are 14 games ahead of the Tigers.. Pythagoras who?

And at the time you posted it Dalimon, Hoffman had pitched 4 innings and given up 1 run…

Be interesting to see how they manage the bullpen today as I'm sure they are really hoping for 7-8 innings from Cease.

Have to figure that all of Varland, Rogers, Flu, Tiedemann and SWR are unavailable ...

Likely see Sewald make his first appearance today and Waldron is fresh.

Angels and A's are 2 of the 4 worst teams and have 2 of the 4 worst run differentials; a combined -260.

One would think that would inflate the other 3 AL West teams, but they all have negative run differentials as well.

Seattle is best at -24, but only played A's/Angels 12 times. Houston at -29 has played them 16 times. Texas at -44 has played them 19 times.

All you had to do was look at the teams that were ahead of them and think: Are the Jays really going to punt a season and trade players they don’t really have to just because the majority of the fan base is mad? The teams ahead of them are not good. This wasn’t 2024 where they were actually out of it. There was a unique opportunity, and so far, they’ve made the most of it.

Stay on the bus. Thankfully, ownership and the front office stayed the course.

I'm still surprised at how much anger and vitriol the fans gave a team that was in game 7 of the world series last year.

You must be new to sports!

And again, this is all part and parcel of being a massive market and ownership/management recognizing that. Toronto fans/media aren’t used to this type of rarified air, so the reaction leading up to the trade deadline wasn’t surprising.

Don’t get me wrong. I understood the vitriol. But like, I even remember 1998 when the team was 10 games out in late August and managed to sweep Boston at home and get within five into September. That was worth it. This team was 6.5 out in late July and people were so convinced there was nothing to be had. It’s mostly because the fanbase is largely made up of people who joined in 2015.
It’s all good.

This team isn’t the 2015 team where the run differential mid year told you it was a good team that was weirdly struggling to find ways to win. This has been a bad team all year long by both run differential and the eye test. Now, the state of the league and the team’s run prevention capabilities give it a chance. They’ve also had all the bad luck the Baseball Gods needed to balance out the massive doses of good luck last year’s team was blessed with. Maybe the Baseball Gods have taken their foot off the gas?

Chris, you demonstrated a better understanding of advanced metrics than me. I'm surprised you're going by runs to compare Hoffman as a Twin to the dominant Hoffman from June and July as a Blue Jay. His advanced numbers are not as good and if you happen to watch the games he is labouring out there.

Maybe it's easier if you just focus on Varsho to understand the point of the post which is that the Blue Jays are much better post deadline because of the roster changes they've made.

Run Differential isn't the only stat to look at to see if a team is over or underachieving.

Run differential isn’t the only metric to judge a team but after the sample size is big enough - 50-80 games (depending on who you listen to) - it’s the best probabilistic predictor of outcomes we’ve yet to come up with. In 2026, the run differential and eye test for the Jays are in complete alignment. Of course, probably isn’t the same as certainly:)

Has Anthony Santander entered the witness protection program?

They’re not out of the woods yet. Lots of guys in the bullpen are leading the ML in appearances, the rotation is still man short, and there is a month to go.

I don’t think they can maintain the 2.88 ERA they’ve put up since the deadline, and they’re just scraping by teams. This stretch has been great - the most fun this season’s had by far - but I still see a lot of flashing red lights.

I heard he purchased a water access only property on Kawagama Lake (not really). He's hitting off a tee.

Anyone know the regular rehab time for the surgery he had and if it's realistic to expect him by seasons end or even playoffs if they made it? Would he be good enough to want to put into the line up or do posters think he's permanently a lesser player now due to injury?

They're a bottom third team competing with the rest of the bottom 3rd for the most pretend playoff spot in sports. We all get that. The team is not good and needs significant offensive improvement in the off season.

Run Differential is just one predictor. There are many other numbers to look at.

I don’t think that they need a major offseason overhaul. The bones of an excellent run prevention team remain in place for 2027. A return to health of some starting pitching, an offseason reset for Vladdy, a return to mid pack RISP hitting, a return to above average to good team defense and the addition of an OF who can hit and this is a solid team.

Little is back, Tiedemann back to AAA.

The Jays are one of seven middling teams vying for the coveted 3rd WC spot and the easier side of the bracket. The jays play 18 games against 5 of the 6 other teams ( no Minnesota) during the remaining schedule - That should go a long way to deciding the Jays fate and likely to last until game 162.

Run Differential can be funny.

In 10gms decided by 8+ runs we're 2-8 with a -60 rdiff.

The rest of the year we're 59-56 with a +4 run diff.

uo - sample size mattters. Pick and choose small sample and those numbers will tell you anything you want them to. You are quite correct that run differential is only one metric but it happens to be the best we have (at this point in the season). You’ve watched the team all season - what part of the Jays run differential do you find misleading? To my eye, they’ve earned every bit of it. They’ve played some bad baseball for much of the year.

The surge back into contention is great for fans and the team. Hopefully it will spur ownership to keep spending on payroll in the coming seasons, as they again see the heightened buzz around the team leading to higher revenue for ownership.

And FWIW your small sample size is confirmatory rather than not - record in blowouts are also predictive over a certain sample size. Good teams blowout their competition more often and vice versa.

greenfrog. They already did that. They’ve already BEEN encouraged and showed us what they’re doing. They’re going to spend money. They’re going to spend a lot.

Agreed. They showed that last year. But it doesn’t hurt to be reminded again! Suddenly the Blue Jays are back in the spotlight. Instead of complaining about the team, people are buzzing about the team.

Fluharty, Rogers, and Varland may be down today, but the bullpen should still be fine with Cease on the mound and a day off Monday. Sewald, Waldron, and Little are very fresh, and Miles and Fisher should be available. A big hit with all those runners on to blow open yesterday’s game could have really helped though.

I would have just swapped out Waldron for Little and kept Tiedemann. Sacrifice today a bit for the 6 games after.

>Run Differential is just one predictor. There are many other numbers to look at.

In the end, run differential is how they decide which team gets a W and which team gets an L for every single game. Can't really get much more "direct" than that. Sure, there are other numbers - which one(s) paint this as a good team? You can have "WRC+" or "WAR/650" to the moon and back if you can't actually score runs. And by that measure (runs scored), we are 2nd last in the entire league. And it's not like our RA is that great.

There are only three teams in the entire league that have scored less than 500 runs so far: TOR, CLE and SEA. And I don't think anyone is calling out SEA and CLE as "will turn it around any day now" powerhouses. And in fact, both of them have given up less RA than TOR. They are at -24/-27 differential and behind us in the standings.

It is ENTIRELY smoke and mirrors at this point, and even more luck than last season. I'd be much less surprised to see DET go on a run - they have scored 71 more runs and given up 74 less. Sure, they traded Skubal, which probably affects the "runs given up" a bit going forward..

Is it fun to watch? Absolutely. I'm watching every game and enjoying it. But we're playing WAY over our heads at this point.

Nigel not only have we watched these players this year, we've watched them in previous years too. We can argue about at what point run differential becomes more predictive than projected war, and we can argue about what meaning we're actuslly trying to glean from 10 extreme blowout games, and these are actual real arguments to be had with context, not something to just brush under and say "run diff is the only stat for fans anad management to bother with at the deadline to figure if they're in or out".

"run differential is how they decide which team gets a W and which team gets an L for every single game. Can't really get much more "direct" than that."

Actually you can get much more direct than that - just look at wins and losses.

Looking at cumulative run diff is a step away from using the most direct measure of wins and losses - and a significant step away, based on how wildly the two measures can diverge.

McAdoo came within 2 inches of having more HR at home than Vlad this season. I hope Vlad recovers fully (concussion is always scary), but I also hope he plays a lot less going foward - he's hit like what, barely 600 OPS since May? We have to hope a few weeks off gives him a full reset, or that he can recover in the offseason. 

Or, perhaps, instead of DHing Vlad, just give him a full day off? DH seems to be part of the problem:
as 1B: 425 PA, OPS 733
as DH: 60 PA, OPS 438
733 OPS isn't great, but will play. 438 OPS as DH?!? I'm sure we could find someone else to do a bit better than that.. Maybe instead of "I'm a bit banged up, I'll DH today" should actually be a full day of rest?

Or, another way to look at it:
0 outs, 156 PA, OPS 745
1 out,   161 PA, OPS 770
2 outs, 151 PA, OPS 574
I'm sure everyone's average drops when there are 2 outs, but 200 points of OPS? Is he trying too hard? Get rid of those 2-out ABs, and again, he's not a black hole. Or maybe the fact that the 0/1 out numbers aren't higher are the problem, in that he needs higher heights to fall from with 2 outs to get to a decent overall result?

Whoever said any of that? Not me.:)

I assume the decision to keep Waldron over Ricky is a function of potentially needing a long reliever out of the pen that could be jettisoned without real cost should the need arise. Not sure it’s the decision I would have made but there’s logic to it.

Spencer Arrighetti is starting for Buffalo today. Seeing of the Jays have found something to help his foot issue.

Figuring out how to turn Vlad back into a superstar is not an easy task. Relying on him as your main offensive producer is very risky for next year. Finding an OF who can hit is a major off season project. They need to find a top 3 bat that can hit like a top performer in the league which is likely going to cost you top prospects.

Signing a Brandon Lowe for the INF and resigning Varsho or going after Arozarena or Chisholm Jr is not going to improve this team. I expect the FO to get a big bat via trade to replace George Springer and provide some protection against Vlad's inconsistencies. It will cost them dearly in pitching prospect capital which they can help offset by signing one of the better starting pitchers.

Butler was playing in a lower strikeout environment than now.

Indeed. In the minors, Bateman struck out 254 times in 1,383 PApps - that's 183 Ks per 1,000. In his minor league days, Butler struck out 183 times in 1,668 PApps - that's just 109 Ks per 1,000 PApps, or 59% of Bateman's rate.

Except that in Butler's day, Strikeouts happened just 67% as often as they do today. So all things being more or less equal, I would think that Bateman strikes out just a little more often than Butler would have done.

Another opposing starter on pace for a Maddux. The grinding ABs for this team come and go.

Honestly this offence is atrocious

Blue Jays Stats

Game 1-106
ERA 4.18 (14th)
OPS .682 (29th)
AVG w/ RISP .242 (23rd)

Game 107-125
ERA 2.92 (2nd)
OPS .662 (22nd)
AVG w/ RISP .250 (15th)

Dazzling.

not so dazzling.

WTF is even happening?

Baltimore is pounding the snot out of the Rays and about to win their third in a row IN Tampa.

I don't know whether to be encouraged about the Jays chances next week or not.

The way the jays are hitting (straw up next) and the yanks are fielding I'm not sure I disagree with the idea of making the yanks make the play at third. Last time they threw to third the jays scored.

Trying to win every single game 2-1 isn’t easy on the ticker.

never, ever be encouraged by the jays chances in tampa, TamRa.

last two at bats have put the 7th in jeopardy for cease.

looks like cease told schneider he's definitely coming back out for another inning.

I don't know whether to be encouraged about the Jays chances next week or not.

The Jays going to the Trop and 'encouraged' should never be in the same room 

Pen is Seabold, Little, Waldron.

Miles and Fisher must be available, no?

Tampa doesn't waste decent pitching when trailing.

Bateman needs to learn how to bunt…

is that good baserunning or bad baserunning by young bateman?

MacAdoo is having a heck of a series.

Thanks for the math Magpie. That all makes sense. But, and I say this without confidence, it’s the absolute k rate that is an issue for the no power guys like Butler and Bateman not the k rate relative to peers. I have to think some more on this though.

Bateman needs to learn how to bunt…

he is!

Hold on to your butts.

Great jump by Bateman on that line drive.

embarrassing

That was spectacularly bad all around.

So much for the solid D this month. That play was horrible…

But… as I keep saying, we simply can’t win every game 1-0 or 2-1…

Jays single-handedly trying to bring back complete games by starters

pretty funny how surprised the ump sounds after each of these many overturned strike calls.

umps really trying to catch that early flight out of town.

Not exactly an umpiring clinic today.

oof bateman just missed tying it. damn.

Ugly, you keep saying the projections show the offence will come back to life… but it’s actually been worse since the trade deadline.

So frustrating

and you said the jays wouldn't start winning and they have.

not so frustrating.

ben rice double agent.

come on george. just one good at bat today please.

They need to DL Springer. Really hurting the team right now.
Jay’s should have bunted there. If you’re willing to safety squeeze to tack on runs, you have to bunt to give yourself two chances to win the game.

DL time for George. He isn’t helping the team

yanks are trying to give it to us. I say we take it.

lol BOOM tied

please let Miles be available.

If ever the Blue Jays needed Okamoto to come through with RISP…

friggin ben rice

If Ben Rice was a good first baseman Ben Rice doesn’t get a hit in this series.

gimmy knows clutch.

tigers lose.

twins cough up the lead in the 8th. down 2.

For all the talk about how amazing Bateman is, he was 0 for 5 today and is now at a .651 OPS…

“Karma vibe like that” (Taylor Swift)

A few home runs would go a long way.

Chris_jays, you may not be getting the full view of the batters box. You have to go to "Features," at the top of the site and deactivate "only show positive posts that boil my blood" feature. That should help you out.

As others constantly point out to you Dalimon, who assigned you as the moderator of this site?

Today’s game was lost when they stranded all those baserunners yesterday. Needing perfection from the bullpen is not a winning strategy.

TEX loses. CLE down 3 in the 8th.

4:37 "For all the talk about how amazing Bateman is, he was 0 for 5 today and is now at a .651 OPS…"

4:02 "Ugly, you keep saying the projections show the offence will come back to life… but it’s actually been worse since the trade deadline.

So frustrating"

3:31 "So much for the solid D this month. That play was horrible…

But… as I keep saying, we simply can’t win every game 1-0 or 2-1…"

3:09 "Bateman needs to learn how to bunt"

2:29 "Honestly this offence is atrocious

Blue Jays Stats

Game 1-106
ERA 4.18 (14th)
OPS .682 (29th)
AVG w/ RISP .242 (23rd)

Game 107-125
ERA 2.92 (2nd)
OPS .662 (22nd)
AVG w/ RISP .250 (15th)"

Yesterday was more of the same, what do you need others to write so we don't need to hear how bad this team is, every, single, post?

Frankly, it’s been an accumulation of close games putting strain on the pen. Today the situation was pretty acute. If today’s game came down to a battle of the pens the Jays were always going to be short of ammo.

So jays went 11-6 in their 17 days in a row stretch.

Lots more offdays the rest of the way.


Aug17 OFF
Aug18 Soriano 5 days rest
Aug19 Scherzer 5
Aug20 Bieber 5
Aug21 #5
Aug22 Cease 5
Aug23 Soriano 4
Aug24 Off
Aug25 Scherzer 5
Aug26 Bieber 5
Aug27 #5
Aug28 Cease 5
Aug29 Soriano 5
Aug30 Scherzer 4
Aug31 OFF
Sep01 Bieber 5
Sep02 Cease 4
Sep03 Soriano 4
Sep04 Scherzer 4
Sep05 #5
Sep06 Bieber 4
Sep07 Cease 4
Sep08 Soriano 4
Sep09 Scherzer 4
Sep10 OFF
Sep11 Bieber 4
Sep12 Cease 4
Sep13 Soriano 4
Sep14 Scherzer 4
Sep15 #5
Sep16 Bieber 4
Sep17 OFF
Sep18 Cease 5
Sep19 Soriano 5
Sep20 Scherzer 5
Sep21 Bieber 4
Sep22 #5
Sep23 Cease 4
Sep24 OFF
Sep25 Soriano 5
Sep26 Scherzer 5
Sep27 Bieber 5
Plyff Cease 4

Cease 7 starts + 1st playoff start
Soriano 8 starts
Scherzer 8 starts
Bieber 8 starts
5th SP 5 starts

Pretty sure there are numerous posters pointing out the flaws of this team but if you want to be blindly optimistic, go for it.

That’s probably right uo - although they might go fifth starter a bit more to help Scherzer and Bieber with a bit more rest. When you lay it out like that, what’s been obvious for a bit becomes more so - the season rests on Scherzer and Bieber (and a bit of hitting with RISP :)). That’s fun in and of itself.

Yeah bieber and scherzer have to be at least mediocre the rest if the way. Good news is that they've been much better than that the last few times out.

Oh and there's a decent chance that 5th starter is Yesevage the last few times around.

It's mid August and the baseball is very meaningful.

What I didn't like was the first Yankees run. A walk, stolen bases, sac fly. 
I'd like the Jays to be more aggressive in stealing third with a lefty on the mound.
Or just stealing second when the pitcher is throwing breaking balls after breaking balls.

Second thing I didn't like was Kirk GIDP when he could have walked to load the bases.

Still, pretty entertaining overall.

A month ago we'd have never believed the Jays right now would be 1 game out of the playoffs, with Vlad still being blah and hurt, using 2 rookies in the lineup nearly everyday (McAdoo & Bateman), with Yesavage on the IL. This is bonus fun imo. Lets enjoy it all. The wins, the close losses, the great plays, the joy.

Dylan Cease should be in top 3 of Jays all time season strikeout list after this year. Might have had a chance to pass *Clemens for #1 if he didn't get injured.

I wonder if the Jay's revenue is doing ok. This is after all a struggling year.

I think this is the oddest year of baseball I remember. The American league has 0 good teams. Like, the Rays are not bad and maybe the Yankees are if Judge and Bellinger are healthy but they aren't. National League is a little better but not much.

Beyond that, there are so many big names struggling. We all know about Vlad and Raleigh, but tons of stars across the league aren't playing well. If you look at the top-10 FWAR guys from last year, they had 67.4 WAR. This year, those guys have combined for 27.8 WAR. You'd expect a drop from the group but not half. Even consistent stars like Jose Ramirez are struggling. Ketel Marte has a 105 WRC+. Kyle Tucker has a 97 WRC+. Gunnar Henderson has a 98 WRC+. Corey Seager has a 96 WRC+, Trea Turner has an 89 WRC+, Vlad has a 97 WRC+, etc...these are guys who are great hitters pretty much every year for years and they all kind of suck this year.

It's not just them either. The league is filled with guys who were good last year who just aren't this year. And injuries too. Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Wood, Lindor, half the A's team, etc...A lot of this stuff happens every years but it just feels like more this year and the product on the field hasn't looked as good as it has in previous years to me.

I wonder if the Jay's revenue is doing ok.

They are drawing 40,000 people per game. I would guess that the TV viewership has been holding strong as well (if the in-game attendance is any indicator).

They are drawing 40,000 people per game. I would guess that the TV viewership has been holding strong as well

Complete speculation, but I would guess that TV viewers drop off faster than in-game attendance when the team is bad.

Lots of tickets were pre-sold during the offseason when the halo from the World Series run was still fresh.

It's much easier (and much less sunken cost) for the casual fan watching at home to simply tune out or cut the cord when the team stinks.

It would also be interesting to see if there's been any ratings bump over the past two weeks when the remaining core has shown signs of life in the WC race after being dead in the water for the 1st 4 months.

Of course the diehards like those here at da Box will continue watching no matter what. But I feel as though vibes for casuals are more from 10,000 feet and change more slowly. I had some casual fans unsolicitedly tell me IRL how boring/disappointing the experience was bringing their kids to the Dome because there were no dingers & the Jays putrid offense with the stars they knew could only manage a handful of singles.

From the broadcasting side, I would imagine Rogers would still be doing okay even with a ratings dip as I would imagine they managed to still lock in 2025 post-WS hype ad rates for their advertisers for most of the summer.

There are not doing OK. They're #2 in the league for attendance.

I can only speak for myself, but I wouldn't cut Sportsnet just because they are out of it in August. Most people will hold on for the hockey season anyway.

Reminds me of 2016.
The hitters were all in decline and it's the pitching who carried the team in the playoffs.
Unfortunately, there was no ABS challenge and the umps screwed the Jays by calling tons of outside strikes.
Those Jays were built on pulling the ball and had no response.

The difference is that the only guy who could be in decline this year is Springer who is having a decent season when he's healthy.
The rest of the team is still young.

Is there any correlation between the ABS challenge and the decline in hitting?
I would have thought that the challenges would have helped the hitters, but it seems easier for the catchers to challenge bad calls.

Plausible Best Lineups Using....


This year's stats only....

1. CF Bateman 43pa, .326obp, 87wrc+, 3.0war650
2. C Alejandro 191pa, .351obp, 107wrc+, 5.8war650
3. LF Sanchez 267pa, .318obp, 107wrc+, 0.2war650
4. 3B Okamoto 493pa, .300obp, 104wrc+, 2.2war650
5. 2B Clement 493pa, .306obp, 98wrc+, 1.9war650
6. 1B Guerrero 486pa, .337obp, 97wrc+, 1.3war650
7. RF Lukes 322pa, .316obp, 93wrc+, 2.4war650
8. DH Springer 398pa, .309obp, 96wrc+, 0.3war650
9. SS Gimenez 410pa, .287obp, 80wrc+, 3.8war650

B. UT McAdoo 48pa, .292obp, 94wrc+, 0.0war650
B. OF Straw 240pa, .274obp, 69wrc+, 0.8war650
B. IF Urias 59pa, .322obp, 123wrc+, 3.3war650
B. C Valenzuela 225pa, .304obp, 94wrc+, 5.2war650

X. UT Smith 178pa, .294obp, 65wrc+, -0.7war650
X. OF Schneider 140pa, .295obp, 70wrc+, -1.4war650
X. IF Sosa 117pa, .207obp, 31wrc+, -3.9war650
X. C ---

X. OF Clase 25pa, .360obp, 154wrc+, 7.8war650
X. OF Cameron 4pa, .250obp, 102wrc+, 0.0war650
X. UT Pinango 180pa, .306obp, 97wrc+, -0.4war650
X. UT Keys 37pa, .189obp, 25wrc+, -5.3war650
X. UT Barger 28pa, .214obp, 0wrc+, 0.0war650



Past 1 Calendar Year Stats....

1. DH Springer 576pa, .348obp, 130wrc+, 3.0war650
2. C Alejandro 314pa, .341obp, 113wrc+, 6.0war650
3. 3B Okamoto 493pa, .300obp, 104wrc+, 2.2war650
4. LF Sanchez 377pa, .308obp, 99wrc+, 0.3war650
5. 1B Guerrero 631pa, .331obp, 95wrc+, 0.9war650
6. 2B Clement 622pa, .306obp, 95wrc+, 2.0war650
7. RF Lukes 447pa, .309obp, 92wrc+, 2.2war650
8. CF Straw 296pa, .298obp, 88wrc+, 2.4war650
9. SS Gimenez 531pa, .278obp, 73wrc+, 2.9war650

B. UT McAdoo 48pa, .292obp, 94wrc+, 0.0war650
B. OF Bateman 43pa, .326obp, 87wrc+, 3.0war650
B. IF Urias 72pa, .319obp, 109wrc+, 1.8war650
B. C Valenzuela 225pa, .304obp, 94wrc+, 5.2war650

X. UT Smith 304pa, .305obp, 68wrc+, -0.4war650
X. OF Schneider 219pa, .312obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Sosa 265pa, .242obp, 63wrc+, -1.5war650
X. C ---

X. UT Pinango 180pa, .306obp, 97wrc+, -0.4war650
X. OF Clase 25pa, .360obp, 154wrc+, 7.8war650
X. UT Barger 155pa, .258obp, 54wrc+, -0.4war650
X. UT Keys 37pa, .189obp, 25wrc+, -5.3war650
X. UT Santander 12pa, .250obp, 17wrc+, -5.4war650




Fangraphs Combined Depth Chart Projections...

1. DH Springer 135pa, .333obp, 115wrc+, 1.9war650
2. 1B Guerrero 129pa, .370obp, 135wrc+, 3.5war650
3. C Alejandro 84pa, .351obp, 116wrc+, 6.2war650
4. LF Sanchez 101pa, .316obp, 108wrc+, 1.9war650
5. 3B Okamoto 136pa, .315obp, 110wrc+, 2.8war650
6. RF Lukes 109pa, .328obp, 104wrc+, 2.4war650
7. 2B Clement 135pa, .308obp, 98wrc+, 2.9war650
8. SS Gimenez 135pa, .306obp, 91wrc+, 3.4war650
9. CF Bateman 76pa, .324obp, 84wrc+, 1.7war650

B. UT Smith 59pa, .328obp, 99wrc+, 2.2war650
B. OF Straw 49pa, .295obp, 75wrc+, 1.1war650
B. IF Urias 12pa, .323obp, 101wrc+, 0.0war650
B. C Valenzuela 74pa, .284obp, 81wrc+, 1.8war650

X. UT Pinango 25pa, .297obp, 89wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Schneider 6pa, .326obp, 103wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF McAdoo 56pa, .295obp, 92wrc+, 1.2war650
X. C Stubbs 1pa, .248obp, 56wrc+, 0.0war650

X. UT Keys 5pa, .291obp, 86wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Clase 22pa, .294obp, 86wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Sosa 5pa, .275obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C ---

Is there any correlation between the ABS challenge and the decline in hitting?

scottt piqued my interest. Stats are current this year / through Aug 18 last year

2026 stats / 2025 stats
PA: 141371 / 141425
HR: 4313 / 4302
Runs: 16736 / 16641
BB%: 8.9% / 8.4%
K%: 22.1% / 21.9%
BABIP: 289 / 291
AVG: 243 / 246
OBP: 318 / 316
SLG 401 / 403
wOBA 316 / 313

I believe that 8.9% BB rate is the highest since 2009, (other that the 2020 partial season). Noticed a jump in the minors when it was implemented there as well.

Is there any correlation between the ABS challenge and the decline in hitting? I would have thought that the challenges would have helped the hitters, but it seems easier for the catchers to challenge bad calls.

This feels at least partly true. It feels to me like the umps have relaxed on their accuracy due to ABS ("they can always challenge it") and are calling much worse games overall, making the hitters unsure of what is a ball and a strike. While "they can always challenge it" is true, it's not always true (you can easily run out of challenges) and not every batter trusts themselves (or has their team trust) to actually challenge bad calls.

As a result, there are way more bad calls overall, making it really difficult for the hitters to know whether a pitch is a ball or a strike. Especially when an ump decides on a zone NOT aligned with the "actual" zone (i.e. will not call the high strike), so the hitter goes with that, but then the catcher challenges, and the hitter is now off-balance and swings at a too-high pitch and misses it.

At least so far, catchers are winning the ABS war: They've got the most challenges and the best success rate, at 58.6% calls overturned. Hitters are lagging behind at only 48.5%. Pitchers rarely challenge, and aren't very successful at 37.5%.

Maybe, to level things out, teams get one Offensive challenge and one Defensive challenge.

I wonder if the abs would be effecting things by helping newer players and hurting established players. Basically a lot of umpires seemed to give the benefit of the doubt to established players and squeeze newer players (on both sides), so I wonder if with the abs umpires have tried to be more uniform in their calls, and this has hurt some of the consistent good offensive players (and helped some of the rookies)?

I haven't noticed umpires calling worse games from the abs, if anything I think they've tried to be better, but I'm not 100% on the statistics.

My impression is that we're no longer seeing days where the ump has a large or small strike zone.

I haven't seen a lot of ejection for arguing balls and strikes.

In a given AB, if the player appeal an win, the ump seems to correct himself.

There has been terrible calls, many by the Jays.

Some guys whom I thought would take advantage--like Varsho--haven't.
Davis Schneider has made some challenges which should have helped him but he's having a terrible year. 
Some guys like Springer and Okamoto seems very hesitant to challenge. It's new to both of them.

Generally, it seems to me that most teams have more left bats than the Jays and that the right bats are being pitched away most of the time.
Nobody has really adjusted by leaning over the plate--although McAdoo does.

whatever's wrong with the Tamba Bay Rays...may it continue through Friday.

Baltimore did eventually lose, but the Tigers are up pretty big and the Twins are up 4-0 through 3.

If there are no comebacks that would result in a three-team tie for the WC with the Jays and Twins tied a half-game out.

In any case - SEVEN teams within 2 games.

Detroit choking it up...

A month and a half to go, most teams will have good and bad stretches. Jays need to go back to .500 before I pay attention to other teams.

That's no fun.

5 teams within .5 gms.

games in hand

BAL 61-64 --- .488 5-5 L1 -1g
TEX 61-64 --- .488 4-6 L1 -1g
DET 61-64 --- .488 5-5 W1 -1g
MIN 61-65 0.5 .484 4-6 W1 0g
TOR 61-65 0.5 .484 7-3 L1 0g
CLE 60-65 1.0 .480 3-7 L1 -1g
SEA 59-66 2.0 .472 3-7 W2 -1g

Looking ahead beyond hell week, the next task is to hold at or near the top of this race through September 10.

15 games making up 5 series that they should win and all with at least some chance of a sweep....if they continue to play as well as they have the last 20 games. If they bungle this like they April, then, well, there goes the "meaningful games" aspirations.

THEN it's very possible they will still be tightly bunched with Baltimore and Detroit at that point. (Texas has a harder path) - and as it happens, this is why I draw a line on the schedule. Before they get to Cincinnati arriving for the final series, they have:

Baltimore for 3
Detroit for 3
@ Texas for 3
@ Baltimore for 3

if they arrive at this stretch still slightly ahead/behind of their rivals, those will - win or lose - definitely be "meaningful September baseball"

I'm not too bothered by strength of schedule except for very bad teams playing poorly. Like A's should be relatively easy unless some of their guys get healthy before then but the difference in talent between bad teams and good teams right now, isn't that big. I do hate the schedule from a general perspective. September should be filled with division matchups IMO. Jays don't play Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox in September. You also shouldn't end the season on an interleague matchup. You want two teams vying for a spot to be playing each other. Tigers play their last two series against Nationals and Pirates which is really silly.