Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Features Post-Mortem and Post-Season
It is time for all the post mortems, although the Jays have been out of it for a while so many have been published already. Usually Ross Atkins speaks to the media after the season so that will happen in the next day or two.

The post season starts tomorrow. Who do you think will win and who do you want to win? The TV networks are hoping for a Yankee Dodger World Series but how about a Cleveland Milwaukee series. Or an all Chicago series would be fun too.

There should be no player movement until after the WS so its all speculation until then.

I am looking forward to the end of all those Michael Cera ads on TV, talk about over exposure.

Posted by Gerry on Monday, September 28 2026 @ 09:52 AM EDT.
Post-Mortem and Post-Season | 149 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Magpie - Monday, September 28 2026 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#484798) #
This Blue Jays season was like one of those hockey games where your team is trailing by three goals heading into the third period (or a basketball team down by 20 in the fourth quarter, or a foottball team losing by three touchdowns) - with a mighty effort, they fight their way back, actually draw level - but have expended everything they had just to get there, have nothing left to carry on with, and are quickly sent packing.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, September 28 2026 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#484800) #
Bring back Gaus.

Sign the two biggest bats we can afford, regardless of position.
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Monday, September 28 2026 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#484801) #
I'd like Bieber back first, would love to see Gausman moved to the pen 7/8 inning to max it out.

Trade for Abrams and platoon Gimenez and Ernie at 2B.

[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Monday, September 28 2026 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#484802) #
Ernie is a non-tender for me.
[ Reply to This ]
Michael - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#484803) #
Whilebwebare dreaming sign Skubal, acquire a good hitting middle infielder without losing anything and a good hitting OF (and sign the option on Straw keeping him. Not sure on the QO on Bieber - I'd want him back but 1 year ~23M might well be too rich, see if hell do less with incentives to make up the value difference), and have all our players health and at top performance at the start of a season that actually happens with no lock out. Heck, just for fun give a NRI to Guerriel Jr to help make Vlad feel goof and comfortable.
[ Reply to This ]
StephenT - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#484804) #
fyi: the TV announcers for the wildcard round are listed at https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2026-wild-card-series-airing-on-nbc-and-peacock
(e.g., Joey Votto is working the 2pm series in Atlanta for NBC, listed as announcer #4 of 5).
(The 2pm and 8pm games are also on SN1 Tuesday and SN Wednesday) (and the 5pm and 10pm games are on SN360 Tuesday and SN1 Wednesday).
(The above link also has all the possible Thursday start time scenarios.)
[ Reply to This ]
Kelekin - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 02:29 AM EDT (#484805) #
SP - One of Bieber or Gaus is not unreasonable. Rogers, Peralta.

RP - Vesia or Minter to help out Flu. Fans and org have a soft spot for Vesia so I like the fit.

Bats - Suzuki feels like the big target that fits our roster and takes care of the RHH corner OF issue. Arozarena and Happ are available. Kwan (LHH) will be in his final year. No excuses for not bringing in one. Would love Lowe at 2B.

I don't think Ernie will get not-tendered this year, but it'd be nice to see him back in the backup middle infielder role (or Gimenez platoon). Smith and Schneider are non-tender candidates.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#484806) #
Davis Schneider will earn around major league minimum. Ernie will earn around $6M. I don't see it likely to non-tender him either but he's absolutely not worth that and you can find a utility guy for much cheaper. I'd prefer Gausman to Bieber because Bieber has started 20 games in 3 years and I just don't trust him to be healthy at all but I'd take either as the #4 starter. Biggest need is 2 hitters. LF and 2B. One of Suzuki or Arozarena or Sato and one of Lowe, Chisolm, or Arraez and I think offense would be OK. Also need a CFer to split time with Bateman. Straw not ideal but can get by if enough offense upgraded elsewhere. Otherwise, Luis Robert Jr might be interesting gamble or maybe a trade with a team like Oakland to get another OFer. Can make things work in RF and DH with Lukes, Barger, Keys, Santander, etc...

I think bullpen is fine but should always be looking to add because there is so much volatility. Varland, Rogers, Miles, Little, Fluharty, Fisher, Rodriguez, Tiedemann, Stanifer, Dllas, Celucci, etc...is good and deep but can always add. Just don't think Jays should be spending too much there with much bigger needs elsewhere.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#484807) #
There's never been a RHH need. It's just that Sanchez and Lukes are platoon bats. Maybe Barger too.
A full time RHH corner bat doesn't really solve a problem.
What's actually needed are guys who hit lefties.
A left bat who can actually hit lefties would be so valuable for this team, especially when you consider that most lefty starters have reverse splits.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#484808) #
Sometimes it's the guys who have not been healthy who can hang around because they don't have as much mileage on their arm.
Just look at Miles.

I think Gausman needs to start every 5 or 6 days. I'm not sure he's a real bullpen option.
He lives by the splitter and it's a feel pitch thrown with blistered fingered.
Obviously, he's at least a decent 5th option but is his stock so down that he signs as a one?

Maybe Schneider hangs around but if he doesn't have a good spring traIining he's likely gone.
Arraez doesn't fit for me. We already have Bateman with a high OBP, defense and baserunning.
They need a bat with some power who can take a walk.
Chisolm is a fun guy but I'm not sure he's what John Schneider has in mind.

It's weird to see "don't trust him to be healthy" in front of Luis Robert Jr but not actually attributed to him.
That guy is a real injury concern because conditioning can't fix his problems.
And you want him playing on turf?

I think the bullpen is fine because there should be a number of options coming from the minors.
The pen always needs a pool of guys who can be on the Buffalo shuttle.
They don't need more guys without options.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#484810) #
Postmortem starts with not having enough starters at AAA.
Klein didn't look that bad although the pitch mix was weird.
He throws a 94.8 mph fastball but his cutter is at 86.6 mph the same as his change up.
Can someone teach him a proper grip? The cutter should be around 90mph at least.

Eric Lauer's selfishness lingers.
He went 1-5 with an ERA over 6.

Gausman went 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA.
Is there a reason why he never gets run support?
Almost the same ERA as Bieber who went 5-2.

Jeff Hoffman's struggles were also a big factor: 5 saves. 7 losses.

Straw finishes with 0.3 WAR and Bateman with 2.2.

Pinango looks like a DH.
Sean Keys looks like he could hit but will he get a chance in Toronto?

Why was Lenys Sosa on this team?
Will we ever know?

For those who thought they should have kept Leo Jimenez, he hit .199 for the Marlins and totaled -0.8 WAR in Miami.

I would have like to see Clase more.
He looked really good for a week and was gone.
Nobody's fault, but frustrating just the same.
The guy has tools.

[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#484811) #
"Most lefty starters have reverse splits"? Huh?

A full-time RHH corner bat definitely solves a problem. It pushes Lukes, a career .211/.303/.301 vs. LHP, into a clear platoon role. Otherwise, it's hard to run as many platoons as the Jays currently need as constructed (at least 2B, SS, LF, RF, and DH, and possibly CF). There's only 3 non-C bench spots.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#484812) #
"A full-time RHH corner bat definitely solves a problem. It pushes Lukes, a career .211/.303/.301 vs. LHP, into a clear platoon role."

Platoon with whom? If your OF is Suzuki, Bateman, and Barger, who is Lukes platooning with? This is the imbalance of the Jays OF which they never addressed this year. OF vs RHP Suzuki, Bateman, Barger/Lukes. OF vs LHP Suzuki, Straw? Lukes/Barger? Having Barger and Lukes both on team doesn't really make a lot of sense unless Barger is playing a fair bit of 3B. Benches are too small for this sort of setup and it will leave the team lacking somewhere else. Considering the Jays had Sanchez, Lukes, and Barger on team to start the year, I don't trust them not to make same mistake again.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#484813) #
They can't build their '27 roster assuming that Barger (vs. RHP) or Santander is an everyday piece of it, but I don't see what the issue would be with Barger at 3B and Lukes in RF vs. RHP.
[ Reply to This ]
jz6pwc - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#484814) #
They don't need Straw if they keep Lukes. From what I saw this year, I thought Straw has taken a step back on defense. Bateman gives you at least as much value in CF. If you can upgrade on Bateman sure, but not sure that is available either. Better to decline the option on Straw and spend the money on a 2nd or a corner outfield bat that should be an easier gap to fill.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#484815) #
It's going to be a strange off-season.  The lockout might resolve before the 2027 season would start, it might resolve in April or May or June, or it might last the whole season (I think this last is unlikely).  
For the Blue Jays, what happens with the lockout is a very important variable.  They have a bunch of pitchers, who they might reasonably believe are capable of throwing 80-140 good innings in a shortened season beginning in late May (say).  Cease, Yesavage, Miles, Soriano, Ponce with Berrios, Perry and King potentially available later.  What they might want is a pitcher who can throw 80 decent innings in the first half of the year as insurance against an early settlement of the labour dispute,  but you don't want to spend much for that insurance.  The key roles in the bullpen are set, with the only variable being Tiedemann's health (in my opinion).

The position player situation from my perspective is pretty clear.  I tend to take a longer view of what to expect from players.  If you look at a 2 or 3 year backwards look for prime-age players, you get a pretty good rough look at what to expect.  Kirk/Valenzuela is an excellent catching team, Guerrero Jr. is a pretty good first baseman, Clement/Gimenez/Okamoto/McAdoo are all decent at 2B/SS/3B, Bateman/Straw is a fine way to cover CF and a 4th OF/pinch-runner.  That leaves the corner OF and DH, The club has Barger, Lukes, Schneider, Keys and Santander for these roles.  Lukes is a good platoon outfielder, but what to expect from the rest is very much unknown.  Seiya Suzuki would be a good addition, but he's 32 years old and probably only has a year or two good ones left.  A younger right-hand half of a platoon who mashes left-handed pitching and is capable in a corner outfield role would be ideal. Davis Schneider would be on my club- he did have a bad year, but with a .188 BABIP.  My expectation for him is in line with his career line of .206/.322/.396 or a 106 wRC+ with average defence in the corner outfield.  He has no splits whatsoever and he would be my starting leftfielder, unless the club finds a reasonable alternative option with a substantially better expectation.  Keys would likely be my DH.  

Blue Jay position players had an average of 26 fWAR/season in 2025-26.  I have the projections at 4 for Kirk and Bateman, 3 for Guerrero Jr., 2 each for Valenzuela, Clement, Gimenez, Okamoto, Schneider and Keys, 1.5 for Lukes, 1 for McAdoo and Straw.  That would be 26.5 and 1 for the platoon partner for Lukes.  That number is not exceptional, but would have been the second highest in MLB this year and 7th best last year.    

I don't expect much movement until the labour dispute is settled.  




 
[ Reply to This ]
Rich - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#484816) #
Mike Green, I have always had a lot of respect for your views but it seems you're suggesting they largely stand pat offensively after scoring the fewest runs in baseball?  Yes Vlad isn't likely to be this bad again but the middle infield and outfield absolutely need offensive upgrading in my view.  I don't think running back the same set of hitters is a recipe for success, even though it's not a great free agent market out there.  Some trades may be in order and I'd happily take Suzuki even at 32.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#484817) #
"They don't need Straw if they keep Lukes."

They definitely do need another CF. Lukes isn't a CFer. He played only 60 innings in CF this year and that was with a lot of playing time available there. Lukes takes good routes and has a great arm which make him a very good RFer but he is way too slow to play CF. His sprint speed would have put him 60/62nd for a CFers and it's a safe bet at 32, it will probably drop a bit more. I don't think Straw is best fit, but need someone else who can play regularly in CF if needed and the only person on roster now who can do so is Straw. I do think Denzel Clark is an interesting target if Jays want to go cheap with it and I can't imagine he would cost very much to trade for. A's have Bolte as CFer already and tons of other OFers. Clark is a bad hitter but fantastic fielder and very fast and might make a good 5th OFer.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#484818) #
There's a better chance of labor peace and no lockout in 2027 than there is of the Jays non-tendering Clement. In other words, no chance at all. Where I'm a bit optimistic is that Mitch Bannon (who seems to be the most connected of the Jays national media guys lately) had an article yesterday about the Jays off-season plans and mentioned that they were discussing a significant middle infielder at the deadline. That would imply that they are willing to move Clement into a utility role or trade him (I can't imagine they'd be moving off Gimenez due to his salary and defense at short). So if Clement is back with the team in 2027 and he's coming off the bench, then he'd be a pricey but useful depth piece. Whether John Schneider would use him as a depth piece or twist the lineup into a pretzel every night to get him into the starting lineup (ala 2025) would be the biggest question mark there.

I think the Jays make at least one big move before the lockout (as they did last time signing Gausman before the lockout in 2022).
[ Reply to This ]
TamRa - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#484820) #
Initial take:

LF - Go hard on Sato if you think he translates (including in left) the way you believed in Kaz. True, he's a lefty but he's also 27 and doesn't come with QO baggage - and most of all, in the same way that Kaz was a hedge against missing on Bo/Tucker, signing Sato means your whole offseason doesn't hang on winning Suzuki. If this fails then you have to be willing to go big on Suzuki if necessary.

2B - I can't make a case against Lowe, except that someone will probably have to give him more years than they are comfortable with. The higher profile trade targets will bring needed speed but be costly. Maybe you try to buy low on Jazz, but not if he has a QO. My dark horse here is to try hard to get the Giants to trade you Schmidt.

SP - In the "it's not my money" camp you could go for Skubal (but anyone who's down with that shouldn't complain about Vlad's deal - because it's not our money) but realistically, if I were going high end of the market I'd go for Trevor Rogers as a first choice, and I wouldn't let that stop me from bringing back Bieber.

Bullpen - I think it's pretty much fine, though you never really know what's sustainable in a bullpen. If I wanted to make a big splash, that's Morejon. Otherwise I'd just trust the team to know who fits what they are looking for.

Whether Miles is a starter or in the former Hoofman role, I'd like to see them try to use Tiedemann the same way they used Miles this year and work him back towards starting being on the table after '27

[ Reply to This ]
Michael - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#484821) #
"not having enough starters at AAA"

It isn't clear if you mean starting pitching (especially with the next line) or if you mean starting position players.

Even though we ran out of starting pitching towards the end of the year, I think it is hard to credibly have this as the post-mortem of the strategy of the season when the preseason concern was having too much starting pitching.
[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#484822) #
It was odd that the Jays seemed to acquire several non-prospect upper minors SP guys during their deadline sell-off for depth.

Then proceeded to use precisely zero of them for the next two months despite swapping Gausman for Soriano, Cease running out of gas, losing Yesavage & Bieber to injury & rolling with bullpen games 40% of the time.

[ Reply to This ]
TamRa - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#484823) #
I've done this before but - as always ASSUMING HEALTH - the inexperienced depth is pretty solid, though I'm not supposing they will risk having to rely on "kids"

If you assume for a second no signings, then you would probably pencil in Cease/Yesavage/Soriano/Ponce/Miles as your presumptive rotation going into spring. And Varland/Rogers/Fisher/Fluharty/Little/Tiedemann as the bulk of your bullpen with the other two spots being optionable players.

Beyond that group Buffalo will probably have

Arrigetti* (needs fixing)
Bloss
Stanifer*
Guerra*
Dallas*
Francis (rehabbing early)
Winkowski*
Klien
Perry (may get a month more in AA?)
Thompson (ditto)

Those with * would also be candidates to bolster the 'pen along with Celluci and Rodriguez.

If they did minimal work on bolstering the veteran depth, bringing back Bieber is an easy play (which might lead to Miles going back to leverage) and someone like Talion - or a similarly situated guy - taking a minor league deal with an opt-out (upward mobility) clause to the AAA group.

Off topic a bit: it seems to me that in the face of the work stoppage, if I was a player, particularly a pitcher, who's having injury issues or looking to rebound, I'd be eager to sign a minor league deal to ensure my access to the teams MiLB staff and facilities over the winter-spring to aid in my (hoped for) comeback.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#484824) #
I don't think there's such a thing as starting position players and bench position players at AAA.
You have position players and you have pitchers. The pitchers are starters or relievers.
I mean, I just mentioned that guy who wanted to be a starter and not a reliever.

Let's look at the Yankees for a reference point.
Schlitter made 33 starts. Warren 29. Ryan Weathers made 25. He was a AAA starter for the Marlins.
They traded him to the Yankees because he was out of options. He made 2, 16 and 8 starts for the Marlins over 3 years.
He's been exclusively a starter. He had a pretty good year but he is probably off the playoffs roster.
Then you got Cole, Fried and Rodon. They made 22, 20 and 16 starts. So they needed other guys to fill in.
Elmer Rodriguez started 6 games (21 in AAA). Luis Gill started 4 (1 in AAA, rehab probably).
Brendan Beck started 2 games (25 in AAA).

Maybe the Jays AAA starters don't show up as starters because the Jays love the opener.
I would like to see some guys at AAA who can actually start games for Toronto if needed, but maybe it's just how they like to run things now.
I remember a couple of starts where the other manager shuffled his lineup to neutralize the opener.
It's mostly a strategy to dodge star players and some small market teams don't treat their players that way.
[ Reply to This ]
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#484826) #
Sorry for double posting


I see Lukes as a prime trade candidate to bolster depth in another area. He's still controllable, has proven to be a reliable hitter against RHP and can play all three outfield positions. Ideally, he's either a useful throw in to get a deal over the finish line, or possibly an attractive "your depth piece for my depth piece move." With the return of Santander and Barger and the emergence of Bateman and McAdoo (not to mention Smith being an intriguing versatile, cheaper, piece) he is a bit redundant on the roster.

I had originally thought Keys was the guy to get moved, but I actually think the Jays think he might have Ben Rice potential.
[ Reply to This ]
TamRa - Tuesday, September 29 2026 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#484827) #
My take on Keys is that, unless they get a really compelling offer, they need to hold him as a safety net in case Santander fails again (either from health or rust or whatever)

Rice, perhaps unintentionally, provided the Yankees cover because it was so risky to count on Stanton being healthy. Turned out to be a smart move.
[ Reply to This ]
June Northey - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#484828) #
The Jays clearly have openings at DH/LF or RF and 2B where they can put a good bat without issue. Bateman is the CF for now, but lord knows if he can keep his high BABIP going (odds are against it). I fully expect Straw to be kept around as a security blanket there, with Lukes the backup to the backup.

So who is available? Randy Arozarena is a free agent (151 wRC+ at age 31, 128 lifetime), a nightmare on defense, but damn good bat. Seiya Suzuki is also a FA (134 wRC+, 128 lifetime at age 31), had a good year fielding this year but generally has been poor out there. Jake Bauers, 143 wRC+ at age 30, but just 100 lifetime and a poor defender (1B/LF/RF). Those are the first 3 to come to mind. Teruaki Sato is the best in Japan that might come over, with over a 1000 OPS this year, 856 lifetime, mostly at 3B but does play the OF as well. I suspect Suzuki is choice #1 but any of these guys could do the job, should be interesting to see how negotiations go.

2B: Shugo Maki is a good hitting 2B in Japan (293/347/517 lifetime) but hard to know how well that'd translate. Brandon Lowe is the best ML hitter at 2B available (121 wRC+ last year, 123 lifetime, this year he was 31). Limited number of guys there, but either of these should outhit Clement.

P: they'll be rumored to be in on Skubal of course, but odds are high he stays in LA. Assorted pitchers from Japan are always available. I expect the Jays to sign 2 guys, one a lock for the rotation, another as a 6th man (maybe even Mad Max).
[ Reply to This ]
TamRa - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#484829) #
Just noticed that the Jays added Deveraux Harrison to the 40 man roster on Monday and...just...why?
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 06:20 AM EDT (#484830) #
How is Straw a security blanket around Bateman's BABIP?
If Bateman stops getting on base, they can play Lukes in CF.
Straw is useful only as part of a platoon.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 06:31 AM EDT (#484831) #
By metrics, both fangraphs and Bref rate Bateman's defense as great and Straw's as average.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#484832) #
"Mitch Bannon (who seems to be the most connected of the Jays national media guys lately) had an article yesterday about the Jays off-season plans and mentioned that they were discussing a significant middle infielder at the deadline."

Bo always did make more sense than Kyle Tucker as a target.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#484833) #
I was advocating for the Blue Jays to sign Suzuki five years ago (Dec 2021). At the time he was very much an unknown quantity (he was ranked as the #20 FA) -- kind of like Okamoto last off-season. Suzuki was a bit challenged in his first year, but he ultimately posted 15.8 fWAR (16.2 bWAR) across his five years with the Cubs, or just over 3 WAR per year. Very good performance, and of course he was excellent in 2026. 
I would still be happy for the Blue Jays to land him this off-season. But he's probably going to command a lot of money, either on a long-term contract (say 5-6 years) or a shorter-term high-AAV contract. Could be something like a 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 1.5 WAR progression for him over the next five years (if the team is lucky) or maybe a 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 1.5, 1.0 progression (if the team is less fortunate).
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#484834) #
The current front office probably has a couple of more years to try to win a World Series (when Vladdy, Kirk, Yesavage, Cease, Soriano, Varland, Miles are all in their prime). It would make sense for the FO to add a win-now player like Suzuki who could help them go for a championship in 2027 and 2028.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#484835) #
They are not going to depend on unproven guys to produce around Guerrero.
It makes a lot of sense to have an open spot where guys can battle for ABs.
That spot can't be the middle of the order and they need a middle of the order bat.
Santander, Keys, Barger, even McAdoo can fight for one spot and hit in the bottom the lineup, but they need an establish bat to hit behind Guerrero.

I always hated Bo in that spot, as the RBI guy.
He doesn't walk, doesn't hit the ball far enough to clear the bases reliably.
It was all about his BABIP.
Unsurprisingly, it's been up and down.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#484836) #
"Bo always did make more sense than Kyle Tucker as a target."

Would be shocked if Jays were interested in Bo besides I wouldn't even classify him as a middle infielder right now. I think more likely were taking on salary of aging but still good but no longer great player like Lindor, Seager, or Marte but could have been an even bigger target like Abrams, Neto, or De La Cruz or someone not even on radar to be traded. I'd give up the entire farm system for De La Cruz.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#484837) #
Some FAs who could work out well for the Blue Jays:

SP: Skubal, Rogers
RP: Morejon
OF: Suzuki
IF: Arraez (short-term contract)

I could see all of those players being valuable regular season and postseason contributors.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#484838) #
The Jays ended up trading for Soriano so it’s possible they asked about Neto as well. Not sure they are absorbing a $30M AAV contract for an infielder (Lindor, Seager) but they had interest in both in the past so certainly possible. Bo’s AAV is even higher than that and both sides seemed ready to move on a year ago. I doubt anything has changed, especially on the Jays end. Marte is more interesting to me since he’s underpaid for what he is, and he’s a legit star when he’s on. The clubhouse issues make him unlikely though. The Jays value clubhouse and chemistry very much, especially lately.

I doubt Elly is available but if he is then the Reds can take their pick of the farm system as far as I’m concerned. I doubt that will be enough, though.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#484839) #
Every player goes into decline at some point. Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor were once heavily sought after by the Blue Jays, but both had rough years in 2026 (their age-33 or -32 seasons). Lindor might still have a few good seasons in him, but I'm not sure I would want to bet on that. His contract runs through 2031 (five more seasons). I doubt the Blue Jays were angling to bring Bichette back. I could see them having tried to trade for Arraez at the deadline. A couple of days before the Soriano trade I wrote: "If the team added a controllable SP (for example, Soriano or Detmers) — which they need to do anyway to restock for 2027 — and a decent middle infielder who can hit (Arraez would be a good choice), they could end up being a surprise team the rest of the way this year."
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#484840) #
Blue Jays have signed another Korean high schooler, Kwon Si-Woo.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#484841) #
Atkins and Shapiro press conference. Some highlights. Atkins took blame on himself. They think Vlad is going to be back as himself but not just sitting around waiting for it to happen. "As he lost a little bit of that rhythm and timing over the course of pretty early in the season, it started to impact his confidence. Once it impacted his confidence, in-game and in-season adjustments became very difficult.” That makes a lot of sense to me.

Cited need to get more power in majors and organization. Contact not enough on its own. Sees base running as an easy place to improve (good but need to change personnel for that to happen IMO). They're going to try to expand presence in Japan even more and look at market there. Not thinking about potential lockout and going ahead as if there won't be one (obviously). Happy with current coaching staff. Lots of generic positive comments about players that were asked about and hoping all injured players come back. Only comment that made my ears prick up was Atkins saying he thinks Clement can be a very good everyday player. Lots of obvious statements (we'll add if it improves the team, yadda yadda)

[ Reply to This ]
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#484842) #
Agreed, greenfrog. Although at the rate the Jays spend, they very rarely are going to have a core that isn't worth spending for one or two more pieces to put it over the top.

My guess the shortstop Bannon was talking about was CJ Abrams. The Jays probably would have had to give up Jojo Parker plus others in the deal.

Still, Abrams would be a huge addition to the core that greenfrog mentioned. Age 26 season, so pretty much entering prime BRef had him as a 5.1 WAR last season. Jays would have him for three years before free agency. Nationals have to decide whether to sell high after his best season or keep him to try and contend.

Lindor and Ramirez both have Shapiro/Atkins links, so I never really put them out. Lindor has been as durable as anyone, so if he has to DH the last couple years of that deal, hopefully he can still swing the bat.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#484843) #
I think Cease’s shoulder is a pretty big concern. If the team wants to win the WS next year, they may need 200+ innings from him. This year Cease pitched less than 170 innings before being sidelined with the injury (and it sounds as though the shoulder had been bothering him for quite a while).
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#484844) #
Lindor's season didn't quite match his best ones, but it was quite good.  He missed 1/3 of the season due to injury, but fielded well and hit well when in the lineup.  He may not have any more 6-7 WAR seasons, but I think he's going to be a 4-5 WAR player for a few more years.  If the Mets are selling, I'd be interested.

Ramirez had a significant drop in power at age 33 (but still managed to steal 37 of 41 bases).  He's now 34 years old and under contract for another 5 years.  He's a Hall of Famer, but I'm not sure I would expect that much from him in the next few years.  Besides, the club has Okamoto.
[ Reply to This ]
June Northey - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#484845) #
With Cease and all pitchers you know you have a limited amount of time before the arm blows up. I think planning on 25-30 starts per pitcher is the smart move. Just 3 guys got 20+ starts, Yesavage right on 20, Gausman 23 (32 in the end if you add Cubs games), Cease 29. Gausman if he wants to play another year would be nice with that stability/inning eating.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#484846) #
Atkins said that they didn't walked enough, didn't put enough balls into the seats, didn't get on base...

Don't wait for Atkins to say anything bad about a player. Clement could be an everyday player somewhere else.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#484847) #
While I like Lindor and think he could be an interesting acquisition, in general it would be preferable if the team got younger, not older, for 2027. The team will have already done this in some ways (by subtracting players like Gausman, Springer, Varsho and Heinemann, and adding/deploying Soriano, Bateman, Smith, McAdoo and Keys -- plus Valenzuela, Miles and Tiedemann). Perry is another young player who could make the roster in 2027. Of course, any free agent added will be in his late 20s or beyond. 
[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Wednesday, September 30 2026 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#484848) #
I'm wary about bringing Gausman back because of how reliant he is on his fastball as a two-pitch pitcher.

He was still dialing it up in the first half this year. But it only takes him losing a tick or two before MLB hitters can either just sit on one pitch. Or where 50%+ of his pitches will suddenly be ineffective. Sort of how we've witnessed with Scherzer over the last two seasons.

The successful late career reinvention of Gausman hasn't shown much creativity or flexibility. He currently has an effective high fastball & an otherworldly splitter. And a slider that's effectively not used. Or only very rarely to only one handedness of batter.

At least when Scherzer lost his velo, he had a deeper grab bag of pitches in his arsenal to mix & match as a junkballer.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 05:46 AM EDT (#484849) #
Cubs and Red Sox both gone without doing anything at the plate.

The 3rd wildcard is better than the second one, even in the National, it seems.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#484850) #
Cubs had no pitching and it's hard to win in playoffs with no pitching. Astros are just bad. The playoff format is awful though. Needs to be re-seeded after first round. Yankees and Rays are two best teams in the AL and face each other while a couple of mediocre central teams also face each other. It's so annoying that Jays didn't make playoffs because it was such an easy year to do it. It makes me think of the 2021 team which I think was best in baseball at end of year and didn't even make playoffs with 91 wins and this year the Jays could have got in with just not being horrendous on offense and they just couldn't do it.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#484851) #
Astros have a number of good players.
Yordan is the AL MVP. Paredes is a solid 3B. Pena is a pretty good shortstop.
Altuve is done and they're keeping him for sentimental reasons.
Why they can't find a half-decent outfield in a park that's like a reverse Yankee Stadium is beyond me.
Jake Meyers, Varsho, Taylor Trammell, Cam Smith, Lamonte Wade Jr, Loperfido, Braden Shewmake, etc...
Ditch the left bats.  20 HR with an OBP below .280 is not good. Go for contact and defense.
Add another dead pull right hand bat. There are many obvious fixes.

I'm under the impression that the owner doesn't want to pay for pitching.
They had a tremendous run of finding value in aging IFAs.
Nothing last forever.

It's not the pitching that failed the Cubs. They scored 1 run in 2 games.
PCA played it like Judge.
PCA, Bregman, Busch, Ramirez, Happ, Shaw and Conforto all went hitless.
Suzuki is the only regular who did anything.
Poor Gus can't ever get any run support. Some things never change.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#484852) #
I’m intrigued by the quotes from Shapiro about making an effort in the Japanese market. Over the last few years the highly rated hitters coming from Japan have all hit in the Majors (Suzuki, Yoshida, Murakami, Okamoto). If the Jays believe Sato’s power will transition well in MLB then I’d be fine taking that gamble due to his age. Suzuki likely fits the Jays needs a bit more though (more predictable performance, RHB). Age is where the real difference comes in.

I disagree about the playoff format. They definitely need to reseed based on record but adding more playoff teams is a necessity in today’s sports landscape even if it leads to a bit more mediocrity getting in.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#484853) #
Abrams is so many years younger than Lindor, but I'm actually a lot more worried about his future than Lindor's.  He's a poor fielder at shortstop as of age 24-25.  He's probably got enough pull power to be a competent third baseman or right fielder for a few years, but he's not likely a middle infielder you want to have on a winning club.  
[ Reply to This ]
June Northey - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#484854) #
As always it will be an interesting winter, at least until the lockout. I'm really hoping for the Rays to beat the Yankees thus locking in a bottom 3rd team in payroll for the World Series (Cleveland, ChiSox, and Rays all bottom 10 in payroll). Ideally Milwaukee faces them (#19 in payroll). That'd put the lie to the 'we need a cap to survive' garbage.
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#484855) #
"but he's not likely a middle infielder you want to have on a winning club."

Agreed but he's perfect if you want to turn a losing club into a winning club.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#484856) #
I think that Abrams is likely to be a 2-3 WAR player over the next few years, and yes, that would have value to the Blue Jays when they next play as an outfielder.  But, he's going to be seen as much more valuable than that- as a player worth as much or more than Lindor because of his youth, the fact that he hit 33 home runs in 2026, is a very effective base-stealing threat and that he played shortstop.  
[ Reply to This ]
June Northey - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#484857) #
Part of the fun of being a Jays fan in '26 is we know the team can and will spend. In the 00's it sucked as the team sucked and was cheap and we were watching Montreal lose their team. Not fun. Now we can speculate on the Jays chasing the top free agents - doubt they'll get Skubal but Teruaki Sato from Japan is seen as a solid hitter who is mostly 3B but played the OF as well - could work. If defense doesn't matter (it does) then Randy Arozarena is an option. Seiya Suzuki drastically improved his defensive stats but is that real? No idea, but the Jays might chase him too.

My betting is on Sato or Suzuki being signed. The Jays have the advantage of deep pockets thus can give a big bonus up front for a guy which few other teams can or are willing to do.
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#484858) #
Well I agree he isn't a Lindor in his prime level player that's for sure.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#484859) #
Abrams is a terrible SS but that's near top of the defensive spectrum so he can move down and still be valuable. Could he handle 2B? CF? Maybe. He played around 100 innings this year at 2 and looked about average. The big difference between Lindor is that Abrams is almost exactly 7 years younger and making $30M a year less. In the past decade, there have been only 22 players 35 and older who have even had 400 PAs in a year at SS and 2B. Of those, 13 had WARs of 1.2 or lower. . I mean, this year, there were only 11 hitters with more than 300 PAs 35 or over in all the majors and more than half under 1 WAR. All that is to say, that very few players 35+ are successful and it's even rare for middle infielders. Lindor's contract ends when he's 38 and will be paying $34.1M a year.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#484860) #
In my experience, a player who arrives at shortstop in his early 20s and is immediately terrible and remains so is unlikely to be anything more than bad as a second baseman.  It is true that Abrams could convert successfully to centerfield, as Billy Hamilton and BJ Upton (as he then was) did.  However, acquiring a centerfielder isn't (thankfully) one of the Jays' chores for the off-season.  

Lindor is presently 32 and already is a Hall of Fame shortstop, in my view.  The aging curves of players of that quality is more gentle on average.  There is the odd one whose career came to a halt (like Lou Boudreau), but most like Luke Appling, Alan Trammell, and Barry Larkin chug into their mid-30s or longer. The Hall of Fame shortstop in their early 30s has more ways to longevity.  Lindor hits enough that he can move if he has to, but that's not likely to happen for several years. Now whether the Jays can afford his contract is another question entirely.  


[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, October 01 2026 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#484861) #
I don't like the idea of reseeding.
It's just the usual Yankees whining.
What annoys me is that the Yankees get a day off Sunday.
Why is the extra day off by leagues?
It would make more sense if both AL and NL had one game each day.
The top seed should play 2 games-one day off-2 games and the second seed 1 game--1 day off--1 game--one day off-2 games.
The Rays lose some of the benefits of having a bye because the Yankees have plenty of rest.
[ Reply to This ]
Michael - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 03:11 AM EDT (#484862) #
I think there should be no days off in playoff series. Just 1 day off between the maximum games in a series and next series (more if the team wins the series early/quickly).

No days off mean harder to ride top 2 sp though playoffs.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#484863) #
The games are scheduled to maximize viewership.
Which is another way to say that they schedule the games to advantage the teams they would like to win.
[ Reply to This ]
mathesond - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#484864) #
I would also add they try to avoid going head to head vs the NFL as much as possible.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#484865) #
There's no football on Monday?
Have to make sure people who don't care can see it live?

Schlitter can start the wild card and then the second game of the division series on extra rest and then possibly start game 5 on regular rest.
[ Reply to This ]
Michael - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#484866) #
The Wild Card round started on Sept 29th (off day for everyone on Sept 28th, Sept 27th last day of regular season) and the playoffs are scheduled to go through Oct 31st this year (if the WS goes to game 7) with a best of 3 game WC Series, a best of 5 game Division series, a best of 7 game League series, and a best of 7 game World Series.

So 33 days for at most 22 games. That is way to many off days.

In my ideal you'd start with a best of 5 WC series (no off days) from Sept 29-Oct 3. Oct 4 off day. Then a best of 7 Division series (no off day) from Oct 5-Oct 11. Oct 12 off day. Then a best of 9 game League series (no off day) from Oct 13-Oct 21. Oct 22 off day. Then a best of 11 game World Series from Oct 23-Nov 2. You'd end only 2 days later at max (and a best of 11 is more likely to end early than a best of 7) and you'd have up to a max of 32 games in the 35 days (although a team that played all 4 series and won in the minimum would only need 18 games in the 35 days if they swept each series). If you really needed to end the playoffs on the exact same time period you could even make the last two series end on scheduled double headers (most series wouldn't go the full distance, but if it did, it would be the double header ending). With modern travel you can still make it from one home site to the other overnight, and you could do travel games as day games before night game at the next site.

Even if some of the games would be less ideal for TV broadcasters, more games help more than offset that, and the more games also helps reward team depth and helps the better teams be slightly more likely to win than the shorter series.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#484867) #
From MLBTR, projected arbitration salaries:

Toronto Blue Jays (8)

Ernie Clement (4.168): $7.6MM
José Soriano (4.121): $5.6MM
Josh Smith (4.116): $3.7MM
Bowden Francis (3.098): $1.3MM
Spencer Arrighetti (2.166): $1.9MM
Louis Varland (2.163): $3.8MM
Nathan Lukes (2.145): $2.1MM
Davis Schneider (2.142): $1.3MM
[ Reply to This ]
June Northey - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#484868) #
This is where radical realignment could be a big plus - everything regional based. Then playoffs are East vs West for the WS, but until the WS you aren't traveling across more than 1 or 2 time zones - well the west might be more as getting 16 teams for 'west' isn't easy (assuming expansion) - Pacific Time has 6, then Arizona, then Colorado gets you to 8. Add in a new team in Utah or Oregon and you have 9. So 7 more needed - central time has Twins-Brewers-Cubs-Sox-Royals-Cardinals-Texas-Houston which is 1 team too many. Brewers or Twins the easiest to move (neither a major market) geography be damned. Everyone else is eastern time.

Then you could make the division series and championship series go without offdays or maybe 1 offday (one series gets it between games 2 and 3, other between 5 and 6 - I'm assuming MLB expands DS to best of 7 here). The west would have issues, but strong division setups could cut it down (central time only and west/pacific only round 1 & 2, they face each other round 3). It is complicated, and probably not super-fair but could be done.
[ Reply to This ]
June Northey - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#484869) #
I suspect the Jays won't dump any of them pre-arbitration. While Arrighetti and Francis aren't likely to be big in '27 both are good 'plan B's at a total of $3.2 mil. Smith a decent backup at $3.7, if used as a backup Ernie is a bit much at $7.6 but not an issue here. With a $250+ mil payroll the average is over $10 mil per player so guys sub $5 mil are 'so what' and even at $7 mil it isn't a big deal.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#484870) #
Per Shi Davidi Cease is going to rest for a couple of weeks then head to India.

“I’m going to southern India, where Sadhguru, a Yogi, his ashram is,” he said. “I’m going to maybe spend like two weeks there, or something like that. They have such an interesting spiritual culture there, up and down the country. It's incredible.”
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#484871) #
Well, I hope Sadhguru is an uplifting guy.
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#484872) #
Time for Ernie to go.
[ Reply to This ]
Jacob - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#484873) #
In 2025 I really enjoyed watching Ernie Clement field the ball. For some reason, all I remember about his 2026 is his inability to go to his gloveside while playing 2B. He was constantly sliding into the ball when going back and to his gloveside. This either resulted in simply knocking the ball down but with no throw because the ball was not gloved cleanly or simply smothering the ball.

I just went to check Baseball Savant and indeed he went from a +2 Outs Above Average (OAA) on plays towards 1B when playing 2B in 2025 to -6 OAA in 2026. This is as hard to understand as the team forgetting how to hit. If I remember correctly, this went on the whole season without correction.

Unfortunately, I cannot figure out how to find video of individual fielding plays on Baseball Savant so cannot verify the distribution of these plays throughout the season. Such fielding plays used to be found under gamelogs-Statscast but the site seems to have changed.
[ Reply to This ]
Jacob - Friday, October 02 2026 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#484874) #
Update: Videos of individual fielding plays can now be found on Baseball Savant's website by clicking on "Statcast" and then "fielding". Scroll to the bottom of that page where there is a "Statcast Fielding Breakdown" figure. Tapping or clicking on each individual play dot will open a tab with the video of that specific play. Cool.
[ Reply to This ]
TamRa - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 01:28 AM EDT (#484875) #
I keep going back and looking for the "ideal" replacement for Ernie at 2B and...I'm not sure there is ne.

Abrams, yes, if you want to be an eye-watering price that probably includes Parker
Lowe, yes, but what if the one-year defensive improvement is an outlier? If you want to go into the contract knowing he might DH in the back half then sure.
Chisolm? Probably, but the speed would work better if he were better at getting on base.
Arraez? I don't think so for a team that can't afford to not add power.
Lopez? Maybe? Is he available for a reasonable price and how much do you believe in one crazy good half-season?
Schmit? Maybe? They didn't play him much at 2B this year and I'm not clear on how good he is there. His injury stole the chance to show his worth after the deadline.
Marte? Oh yes! But...the character thing? and would they even?

I mean, maybe you pull a rabbit out of your cap like trading for Turing as his arb estimate approaches $10 million (I'm guessing the Brewers hold for one more year) which would be costly (similar to Abrams because this guy brings the leather) but whatever they do, there will probably be this little gremlin in the back of your brain going "I can see how this could go wrong"
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#484876) #
I just went to check Baseball Savant and indeed he went from a +2 Outs Above Average (OAA) on plays towards 1B when playing 2B in 2025 to -6 OAA in 2026. This is as hard to understand as the team forgetting how to hit. If I remember correctly, this went on the whole season without correction.

That tracks to what I watched. He had a lot of problems on grounders to his glove side while playing 2B. So many times he would knock the ball down and not field it cleanly when going to his left. It seemed to me though that most of the problems with that particular play occurred in the first half and he got a lot better later on.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#484877) #
I already mentioned that Gimenez isn't really a platoon player.
His split for 2026 was .660 OPS vs right and .623 vs left.
Clement had reverse split .660 OPS Vs right, .626 vs left. 
That's an awful platoon.

Gimenez improved slightly .640 OPS in the first half and .665 in the second half.
Clement faded away .751 in the first half and .493 in the second half.

Gimenez will be making 23M for the next 3 years.
Clement is projected to make 7.6M in arbitration next year.
So, there's no trade value for either of them.
Josh Smith is projected to make 3.7M.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#484878) #
"That's an awful platoon."

One reason why I would non-tender Ernie. Since the Jays are probably stuck with Gimenez and his salary, give him a competent defender who can hit LH pitching as a platoon partner. Edmundo Sosa is a FA, same age and projected to make about the same as Ernie. Not a sexy name, but a better fit.
[ Reply to This ]
Michael - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#484879) #
Even if the Jays sign someone else for 2B (and they should, say Arraez or Lowe) you should probably keep Clement at the $7.6M amount as a backup utility player (and possibly LIDR). This is similar to Straw in terms of being a good backup to have, and use in a non-starting role (outside of surprise injuries). Good position flexibility.

I don't buy the Schneider overplays his guys narrative, as the GMs and data people should be able to dictate to Schneider who to start (and signing people clearly better than Straw/Clement should also make that clear).
[ Reply to This ]
TamRa - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#484880) #
one consideration - if they did move on from Clement altogether (I'd be shocked) they could probably convince Urias to re-up for less than Smith is projected to make (and Smith has options)
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#484881) #
Smith is too old to send back to AAA and too expensive.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#484882) #
Positional flexibility was a thing back when you could have 14 pitchers and 12 position players.
Now, the best use of the bench are platoon bats.

Straw is useful if you have bad defenders in the outfield. 
He was worth 2.8 WAR last year which is very good.
He was worth only 0.3 WAR this year, that's not good at all.
His OPS+ went from 86 to 78, that's not a huge difference.

Savant says his range went from 95 percentile to 88th.
I think part of it is playing more LF and less CF. 
DRS down from 18 to 2. OAA down from 9 to 5. 
FRV down from 8 to 3. 

Gold glove defense is valuable. Average defense is not. 
 
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#484883) #
So far today, almost all the runs were scored by HR.
Back to boring baseball.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#484884) #
What an impressive start by Rasmussen for TB.

The Skubal trade showed its worth for LA today. Tucker and Teo also had good games.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#484885) #
"data people should be able to dictate to Schneider who to start"

Maybe they should, but they don't. Analytics folk make suggestions. Managers make decisions.
[ Reply to This ]
TamRa - Saturday, October 03 2026 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#484886) #
"Smith is too old to send back to AAA and too expensive."

He's not much older than Schneider but, upon a closer look, he may well have too much service time to be demoted without his consent.
[ Reply to This ]
June Northey - Sunday, October 04 2026 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#484887) #
For next year the question for Clement is - do the Jays have better ways to spend that roughly $7 mil he'll cost them? Maybe. His top value right now is backing up SS and being an acceptable full time 2B or 3B. Josh Kasevich has a good rep on defense, hit 282/364/363 in AAA last year over 572 PA. He bats right and is entering his age 26 season - basically he is a younger Clement (played at SS/3B/2B 15+ games each, 3 times at 1B) who would cost the league minimum in '27. From a brutal dollars and cents method you let Clement go and use Kasevich instead (if the stats/scouts feel he is solid enough for the role). Other IF backups who are cheap are McAdoo, Schneider (neither a SS but both can cover 2B). Plus of course Josh Smith who has covered in the past 2 seasons 20+ games at 1B/2B/3B/SS/LF with a touch of time in CF/RF as well. Plus before this season was a decent hitter (who knows maybe he can be again) but is a LH hitter - so a good platoon partner with many of the options (RH Schneider/McAdoo/Kasevich/Clement).

So yeah, logically Clement should be let go - he won't be as that is a PR hit the Jays don't need right now. I expect them to offer him a $4-5 mil deal and see if he bites. If not then chase down Brandon Lowe or someone else and try to get them on the dotted line before they need to commit to Ernie.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Sunday, October 04 2026 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#484888) #
Poor Padres.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Monday, October 05 2026 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#484889) #
On one hand, $7M is a ton for a backup infielder under team control. On the other hand, IKF signed with Boston for $6M this off-season so $7M doesn't seem like that much. My answer is really it depends what else the Jays do and what the their internal metrics think. If the Jays think he can rebound some because they don't really have anyone else who can backup SS right now. If they trade for Lindor or Neto or someone, that calculus can change. My worry is that Schneider likes him too much and will play him regardless if he deserves it or not. From July 1st on, he had a -1 WAR and he played pretty much everyday. Also, concerned that he might just be toast like Espinal sort of career path and the Jays will hang on too long. I also think it is possible that he was exhausted. He had barely played in his career before Toronto and last year, and then in 2025 played 157 games, plus 18 in the playoffs, plus went to the WBC, and then played 158 more games this year. Does he bounce back with rest? I don't know.
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Monday, October 05 2026 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#484890) #
Moving on from Straw and Ernie combined gives you more than enough to cover the difference between an offer to Peralta vs Rogers or to simply upgrade from internal players to Brandon Lowe.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Monday, October 05 2026 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#484891) #
I don't think hitters can get exhausted like pitchers.
He played in 158 games out of 162.
Nobody played more.
Okamoto 156 games.
Gimenez 148.
Straw 146.
Guerrero 144.

It's not like there was no other options.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Monday, October 05 2026 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#484892) #
Lowe is 32 and will turn 33 in the middle of next season.  He had a big year in 2026 after 4 mediocre ones.  Defensively he had by far the best numbers of his career- up until age 31, he was -24 DRS over his career and -22 OAA over his career.  This year he was +13 DRS and +15 OAA.  The projection systems have him as average next year, and that, if anything is optimistic. Offensively, he had a good year but his W rate was down from his prime, his K rate was up and his BABIP was .319- 20 points higher at least than you would expect from him.  In the result, he had 5 fWAR this year, but the projections are for 2.4 fWAR next year.  And he'll want to get paid for what he did in 2026, not what you can realistically expect from him.  

Over the last 3 years, Lowe has delivered 9.6 bWAR and Clement 8.7 bWAR.  If you take the average of those figures per season (3.2 for Lowe and 2.9 for Clement, you've likely got the difference between the two players although in both cases the figure is a little high).  The major difference is that Lowe will probably want $25M and Clement probably $5-$6M, and he might even sign for a couple of years.

Since the beginning of 2023, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has produced 3.6 bWAR per 162 game season with 702 PA per season.  Ernie Clement has produced 3.2 bWAR per 162 game season with 575 PA per season.  The main difference has been that Guerrero Jr. has had 127 more PAs per year.  I think that the Blue Jays should hold on to both and hope for a return to some kind of form, with the money difference making it an easy call in the case of Clement.  
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Monday, October 05 2026 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#484893) #
Ideally, JoJo Parker plays SS in 28 and Gimenez moves back to 2B.

Clement has produced 3.3 WAR in 24 and 3.4 in 25, but that's because he was playing 3B and SS.
Gimenez has more range and less arm and can really take advantage of second.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Monday, October 05 2026 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#484894) #
That first inning in Cleveland didn't look like playoffs baseball.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Monday, October 05 2026 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#484895) #
"Over the last 3 years, Lowe has delivered 9.6 bWAR and Clement 8.7 bWAR."

You can look at the last 3 years but absolutely cannot weigh them equally. For example, in the last 3 years, Jarren Duran and Jackson Churio have the same WAR but Churio is coming off a 4.6 WAR season and Duran had 0.5 WAR. You think they have anything approaching similar value going into next year? (even if age and salary were even). Again, from July 1st on, Clement was -0.9 WAR player. There is a real chance that he just isn't a major league player anymore. I don't know if Lowe will age well or if his defensive improvement will stay, but if you want to win, you can't go "maybe this guy who was one of the worst players in baseball for half a year will be good so let's let him be."

Vlad is a different question because A) it's clearly a mental issue not some sort of decline which means he may be able to fix it B) 4 of his previous 5 years, he was a very good hitter. Ernie was never a good hitter but great D as an average hitter. C) Jays don't have a choice. He is one of highest paid players in the game.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#484896) #
I would avoid Lowe. His age combined with the ridiculous improvement in defensive value this season after years of being well below average doesn’t look sustainable at all. A 3-4 year deal will not age well. Same thing with Arraez. I don’t think the FO would even consider Chisholm so that’s not worth mentioning.

The Jays lack young talent. It doesn’t appear they are close to getting any on the position player side after trading Nimmala. So on that note, I think my preferred target would be Sato. Highly touted Japanese position players have been able to adjust to big league pitching just fine over the last few years, including someone the Jays signed (Okamoto). You have a chance to land someone who is still reasonably young with big time power versus a free agent class whose best available talent are all in their 30’s. This is where Atkins has to hedge a bit between short term improvement and long term upside.

As far as 2B/SS, that’s a bit harder to see where a younger player can fit. Given how this FO has operated, JoJo Parker is probably more likely to be traded than given years to develop, and all the external options are older. I’ve said before I think Marte might be the move to make. It shouldn’t cost much anymore due to the D-Backs wanting to shed payroll and possibly move off him due to off field issues, and he’s very close to Vlad which means he (Marte) might be more willing to waive his NTC to come here and acquiring him may or may not help Vlad come out of his funk. It’s worth pursuing, IMO.
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#484897) #
Forget comparing 4 years. Mike, Brandon Lowe is far superior to the Blue Jays not because of his overall value but because of the type of value he brings. WAR surmises Value = Value. It's like measuring water in a cup. Realistically it doesn't matter how similar two players are in total WAR when they have completely different skill sets.

Perhaps the best way to state my point is that with Ernie Clement the Jays will remain one of the lowest scoring teams, lowest power teams and lowest OPS teams in the league whereas they would improve all of those numbers with Lowe instead of Ernie, even though "overall" both players being similar total value.
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#484898) #
For the record I wouldn't go after Lowe for the reasons already mentioned. I also wouldn't go after Marte. I am interested in a short term deal for Arozarena and a deal for Chisholm Jr. They both have the power and speed that this team lacks and Arozarena can be a positive influence on Vladdy.

Arozarena is too old and Chisholm is a brat, so there's that but then again I like these two better than everyone else.
[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#484899) #
I'm not sure that I could handle watching a full season of Chisholm and his attitude.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#484900) #
As mentioned upthread, these are some FAs I think could be good acquisitions for the Blue Jays:

SP: Skubal, Rogers
RP: Morejon
OF: Suzuki
IF: Arraez (short-term contract)

I don't know anything about Sato. Apart from his hitting ability (which may or may not translate to MLB performance), it sounds as though he might not be a good defensive fit on the Blue Jays roster.

I'm not as down on Clement as some people are. I think he could be a good player again in 2027 if used properly as a super-utility player.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#484901) #
Pass on Chisholm. Not incidentally, his poor defense yesterday contributed to the Yankees' loss to TB. His defense was bad in 2025 as well, including in the postseason, if I remember correctly.
[ Reply to This ]
electric carrot - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#484902) #
Also not a Chisholm supporter. He bugs me.
[ Reply to This ]
June Northey - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#484903) #
Chisholm seems to be the anti-Jays approach - poor teammate, poor defense, good hitter.

I'm certain the Jays are working on A) full season evaluation of every player in the system (and others) with projection going forward (scouts, stats, coaches mixed together) B) trade talks for 2B/LF or RF/pitching.

Right now that is all they can do - free agents can't be talked to until post-WS although feelers out to their agents might still occur (not 100% within rules, but as long as you don't go beyond 'would your client consider us' odds are good it won't be an issue). I'm sure the Jays have a plan A set up already for the offseason, maybe plan B as well. Right now is perfect to figure out what minor leaguers you are good with trading away and for what, which ones you want in the system and what you'd give up for them. Someone will be digging through every last scouting report on potentially available guys from Japan and Korea.

I'm very curious who the Jays sign/trade this winter. Chisholm I see as a 'no way in hell' signing. I see Randy Arozarena as a likely target (LF/DH, proven hitter) as is Seiya Suzuki (same thing).
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#484904) #
If you're working with the premise of "improve the god awful offense" then Chisholm becomes a realistic option. If you want Grade A characters, elite defense and free agents in their early 30s coming in to replace guys like Lukes or Clement then I can understand Chisholm being a pass.

This management should be looking for ways to improve offense without sacrificing the above average defense.

That should be fairly easy to do by limiting the bad defensive players coming in (Santander + Chisholm for example).

Probably this FO will refuse bad character types like Chisholm and will go hard after free agents like Suzuki, Arozarena and Lowe.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#484905) #
Bring back Bo.
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#484906) #
Might as well free Willy, uglyone. He's stuck in that trap of a contract which I am sure he is happy to wallow in. He'd actually be perfect though at 2B.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#484907) #
Ideally, a competing team should be able to find ABs for young guys at the back of the lineup. 
The Jays seem to be reserving those spots for Gimenez and Straw.

In 2026, the super utility role was mostly LF.
In 2027, I'm hoping to see an established outfielder in LF with some guys trying to push Bateman and Barger.
Given that they already have Straw and Lukes and possibly Santander, I don't see Josh Smith getting much time there.

Clement could be a platoon for Gimenez, but that's an awful platoon.
Vlad and Okamoto aren't going to sit. So, there's probably no super-utility in 2027.
Just some middle infielders and maybe a DH who can play the infield corners.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 06 2026 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#484908) #
Another dominant postseason start by Yamamoto. He is so good. And 37-year-old Freeman keeps on performing in the playoffs.

I have no love for the Dodgers, but I think a Rays-LAD World Series could be competitive and intense.
[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 01:32 AM EDT (#484909) #

Clement could be a platoon for Gimenez, but that's an awful platoon.

One thing that I noticed recently is that Clement had an awful 2026 against LHP as well. His OPS was somehow 40 points lower against LHP than his putrid performance against the right.

This also confirms my biased eye test watching the live games. Supposed lefty masher Ernie seemed similarly inept against lefties when coming up in key spots.

This seems to suggest that Clement's 2025 platoon split with an OPS above 900 and a performance boost around 50% against portsiders was just an outlier.

His career platoon splits have now normalized to essentially no advantage whatsoever. The only real difference is about 50 extra points of slug against LHP.

Ernie only has about 4 full seasons of batting data in aggregate. But if Clement has no real platoon splits similar to Davis Schneider, he becomes much less value as a bench/super utility type. As it becomes much more difficult to maximize his value by picking platoon matchup for starts or high leverage PHing situations.

[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 01:41 AM EDT (#484910) #

Cumulative minor league splits are hard to come by.

But brute forcing it, Ernie doesn't seem to have much of a platoon split before establishing himself in the majors either.

Only his 2019 minor league season had a notable L/R platoon split of 760/613 OPS in any season with a significant number of ABs with 400+.

Seems to suggest more & more than Clement's 900 OPS in '25 against the left is the statistical anomaly.

[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#484911) #
The AFL has started. Jake Cook & Jake Casey are showing good speed. The pitchers are showing good velo. Fernando Perez has yet to play.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#484912) #
Clement was so valuable in 2024 and 2025 because he hit adequately while playing excellent defense at third base and second base. In other words, much of his value comes from his glove. If he’s no longer an above-average fielder, then he isn’t going to have much value to the team.

I think the best chance of maintaining his offensive and defensive value is to give him roughly 2/3 playing time (maybe 400-500 PA) with starts mostly at second base and to a lesser degree (when needed) at third base or shortstop.
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#484913) #
At 7 million and with so many needs to improve the offense I think that money is important to use elsewhere. Assuming Gimenez is unmoveable.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#484914) #
I wonder if the Jays will take a look at Ketel Marte. I don't know what his issues were this season and if they would cause the Jays to take a pass.

But he seems to have worn out his welcome in Arizona and he is coming off a bad season, for him.

This suggestions obviously has two big "ifs". If his issues are non disqualifying and if he can be traded for relatively cheaply.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#484915) #
They're not really in a position to deal with more personal issues. Personal issues can be very impactful. Gambling. Drug abuse.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#484916) #
As I read the news reports, the difficulty with Marte is that he just takes off and his teammates don't care for him as a result.  He sounds a bit like Dick Allen- very talented and difficult to get along with.  If the reports are right, you'd think that the club wouldn't be interested given the tenor of Guerrero Jr.'s comments after the season.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#484917) #
In fairness to Marte, it started when he just left the team when his mother died in a car accident in 2017.  There was an incident in 2025 when he was heckled by a fan in Chicago about the death of his mother and he broke down in tears.  There's probably more to it than that, but grief seems to be a part of what is behind his behaviour.

Marte is married to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s cousin.  


[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#484918) #
Austin Riley is a cautionary tale for the view that "Vladdy is just going to be fine and rebound". There are differences between them as hitters but Riley has cratered at the plate the past two seasons.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#484919) #
Very close game in Atlanta with the series on the line. 1-1 in the 6th.

I'm hoping TB summarily dispatches the Yankees tonight.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#484920) #
LA advances, Atlanta is eliminated.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#484921) #
Wow. Short porch oppo HR for Vilade off Fried. 2-1 TB
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#484922) #
Riley broke a hand and had core surgery.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#484923) #
Yankees swept. What a shame….


Marte would be interesting but personal issues seem too much. It wasn’t some unsubstantiated rumour, he just quit on the team. It wasn’t like Allen where racism played a big favour in how he was perceived. marte quit on the team without explanation he then was spotted at a casino during a game.
[ Reply to This ]
TamRa - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#484924) #
Saw a video that said the Phillies would love to move Trey Turner (good luck with that, unless you are willing to get someone like Xander Bogarts back) and maybe wouldn't mine moving on from Bryce Harper.

I don't presume the Jays could meet that price but there's a bat I'd be happy to slide into Springer's old job.
[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#484925) #
I’m a petty baseball fan. I don’t hate the Yankees with nearly the passion that I hate the Red Sox. But a Yankees sweep on top of a Sox sweep makes 2026 a semi satisfying baseball season. Petty, I know.
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Wednesday, October 07 2026 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#484926) #
Honestly Vlad's collapse makes everything muted for me this year.
[ Reply to This ]
June Northey - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#484927) #
Nice MLBTR did a review of each position for free agency.
  • Second Base: Luis Arraez (30) a pure BA guy with low K's - the type the Jays often seem to like. Not ideal by any stretch (meh defense) but worth a kick of the tires (no QO); Brandon Lowe (32) power, poor defense (mixed signals from different measures) K's a lot. Look good on the surface, but the Jays tend not to be fans of high K guys; Jazz Chisholm Jr. (29) - attitude issues up the wazoo; Gleyber Torres (31) - solid guy, not a 'wow', steady just over 100 OPS+ hitter.
  • Corner OF: Randy Arozarena (32) - killer bat, yikes defense; Teruaki Sato (28) from Japan, hit 316/395/626 in Japan, but will it translate? Big K guy too; Seiya Suzuki (32) - steady 130s OPS+ hitter so far but poor defense normally (stats jumped this year but are they real?); Jake Bauers (31) - great year (140 OPS+) but lifetime just a 96 so major risk.
  • Starting Pitching: the high rent district. Tarik Skubal, LHP (30) - super expensive but worth it; Freddy Peralta (31); Trevor Rogers (29); then a big drop to ex-Jays Chris Bassitt (38) & Kevin Gausman (36) among others.
  • LH Relievers: Adrian Morejon (28) 2.58 ERA the past 3 years, 2.7 BB/9 10.0 K/9 8 saves, 60 holds, 11 blown - this guy would be nice to add to Varland/Rogers at the end of games; Lots of others but this one guy stands out.
They haven't done RH relievers or closers yet. Still, I could see the Jays chasing Morejon, Suzuki or Sato, and Arraez (to cut K's and maybe teach our CF Bateman how to be an even more effective singles hitter). That'd work out well I think. Plus getting Gausman back for a year (inning eater, should be affordable).
[ Reply to This ]
Michael - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 04:07 AM EDT (#484928) #
Yeah, I'm a fan of wish casting the free agents:

Sign Skubal (say 6 years $264, that's $44M/year) if he's willing.

Sign Arozarena (say 3 years $72M, that's $24M/year). Again I'm signing the option on Straw and he's a good LIDR for Arozarena (as well as backup CF) and PR for Kirk for net ~$6M over opting out.

Sign Arraez (say 4 years $60M, that's $15M/year). Again I'm still keeping Clement as backup IF for ~$7M, as he easily rates to be worth that even as a backup, but getting a better first option is good.

That adds $83M/year to the team. However, we are losing compared to start of 2026: Springer ($24.2M/year), Gausman ($16.1M/year), Bieber ($16M/year), Hoffman ($9.8M/year), Varsho ($9.2M/year), Scherzer ($5M/year), Sanchez ($6.3M/year), and Lauer ($4.4M/year) among others. That amount listed totals $91M/year and hence is more than enough to cover the 3 folks I listed above (even counting that we still owe $3.75M for Hoffman next year).

I don't think you want to go too far past these top guys at the positions though. Maybe Torres at 2B or the Japanese guys in OF or very minimal 1 year deal for old guys (Gray, Bassitt, Gausman) at SP or DH (Springer); but for the most part I think it is stars and scrubs, and as a big money team with some freed up space we can afford to get a couple of stars. We do need to improve the offense and replace Springer's bat, we can hope on Bateman and Santander, but we'd be in a better place if we only need one of them to be a contributing regular.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 07:03 AM EDT (#484929) #
Harper at this point is a platoon 1B/DH who expects to play every day.
Suzuki has reverse splits, but he's still very good against RHP.

Harper is a different type of leaders than Springer.I'm not sure how that would work out.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#484930) #
I don't see Chisholm as a guy with attitude problems. Gleyber Torres is that guy. Bad plays. No hustle.  Confrontational.
Jazz is more like a guy with ADHD. Lots of talent but can lose focus.

Arraez has great contact skills but doesn't hit the ball hard and is around the 25th percentile sprint speed.
He doesn't strike out but barely walks.

He's been one of the top fielders in baseball this year by OOA, but usually the worst in baseball or very close every other years.
Rogers Centre and the Trop are supposed to be the fastest infield in baseball because of the turf...
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#484931) #
Chisholm produced a lot of value for the Yankees from 2023-2026. Probably around 5 WAR/650 PA (to use UO's methodology), although he took a step backwards in 2026. Some of that value came from his defense and baserunning. I'm not sure how those aspects of his game, and his hitting (which was 23rd percentile run value in 2026 per Savant), are going to hold up over the course of a new multiyear contract.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#484932) #
I don't think Chisholm has big attitude issues. He can be outspoken but this isn't a Marte situation. He's the best guy at 2B as he'll only be 29 next year and has 3 straight years at 3.5 WAR (in very different ways). Arraez, like Lowe seems to have taken a massive step defensively at 2B. His offense seems to have stabilized at 105-110 WRC+ which with good defense is very valuable but with bad defense isn't valuable at all. Both his and Lowe's range did a reverse Clement and went from 1st-5th% to 97th-98th%. Don't see it staying there but also don't see full regression as likely. No free agent is perfect (except maybe Soto or Ohtani) but all three of those guys are massive upgrades on Clement. I can also see trades for Neto or Abrams and moving them to 2B. There are a lot of ways to improve the position and they need to do it.

For the expensive veteran options:
Lindor: Like it if Mets take on some salary back (Lindor for Berrios or Santander?)
Turner, Bogaerts-Absolutely not even if they took all the bad contracts Jays had.
[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#484933) #
I don’t think Chisholm and Marte’s situations are similar but Chisholm hasn’t exactly been a popular teammate over the years. I think the failing to run out groundballs, letting pop ups drop and bat flipping solo HRs when his team is losing badly (all things he managed in a single game with the Marlins) wears on teammates after a while. His Marlins teammates were less than complimentary about him after he left. He’s a very good player but he comes with issues.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#484934) #
Also, Arizona Fall League has started. Cook went 3/5 with 2 SB in his debut. casey not off to a very good start. Bloss through 2 scoreless innings and was averaging 94.6 on his fastball with high of 95.6 which is where he should be. Rojas and Barriera also with 2 scoreless innings so far. Definitely a more interesting group in Arizona than we often have. A bit odd how few Abs Jays guys have got so far though. There are 10 layers on Mesa with at least 10 Abs and only one is a Jays player (Casey).
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#484935) #
The best guys character and talent wise are Lowe and Arozarena but they are most likely to age fastest. I don't buy a big defensive improvement in metrics as something sustainable for the case of Lowe or Arraez and many times this can simply be attributed to who they play with (they cover more or less ground compared to a previous year and infield mate).

I really really like Lowe and have for many years but I also have seen him go through LOOOOOONG periods of being awful during a season before getting hot. I don't think he's a good match for the team unless his Pittsburgh consistency is something he can repeat because with the Rays he was always AMAZING-SO SO- TERRIBLE -AMAZING-TERRIBLE etc etc
[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#484936) #
Bryan Baker is having a superb year, had a nice year with Buffalo in 2021 and a cup of coffee with the Jays who chose not to protect him.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#484937) #
Reverse splits are when a player does the opposite of what is normally expected. Suzuki does not have reverse splits; he is a good hitter vs. RHP, and even better vs. LHP.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#484938) #
MLB is proposing dropping the games played in a season from 162 to 154 in 2029. The teams would play six games a week, like in the minor leagues, Mondays off. There would be 1-2 games on a Monday so it wouldn't be totally baseball free.
[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#484939) #
Bryan Baker is having a superb year, had a nice year with Buffalo in 2021 and a cup of coffee with the Jays who chose not to protect him.

I just can't get myself worked up about the relief pitchers & utility players that "got away".

The Jays lost Baker to the Orioles when they DFAed him after the 2021 World Series in November & his 1-inning cup of coffee, likely needing 40-man roster spots as 60-day IL guys needed to be put back on the 40 for the winter.

He was turning 27 the next month. He hadn't pitched professionally for 2020 because of the pandemic. He had put up 40 very good innings in Buffalo over 2021 where he was unhittable with only 18 knocks allowed.

He's had a very serviceable career since with BAL & TB. But his true breakout 3 bWAR season didn't happen until 5 years later at 31-32.

There are simply so few spots on the backend of the 40-man to horde guys who might someday pan out.

You can drive yourself crazy regretting the Bryan Bakers & the Otto Lopezes.

[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#484940) #
Hope MLB expands WC to 5 games with a 2-2-1 format. 3 games all in one park doesn't work for me, no rhythm to the series.
[ Reply to This ]
TamRa - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#484941) #
Interesting stuff there, but my preference would be - after expansion - to go to 8-team divisions so that all division winners get the first round bye. the four first round teams in each league would all be wild cards.

But I don't see a reason to object to the shorter season.

I'd have to mull a bit about picking your opponent but at first glance it seems fine.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#484942) #
The problem with the playoffs isn't the 3rd seed choosing the 5th or 6th team (which feels kind of childish anyway( it's that the second best team is often the 4th seed to begin with. This year it would have been Houston choosing between Red Sox and White Sox. So what? Probable was Houston shouldn't have been 3rd seed and bracket which was Houston/CHW/CLE/ was a joke. Yankees were easily second best team in league and had to play 3rd best team and best team. How does that make any sense? Fix that before I worry about gimmicks.

154 games is OK but all the records and way we think about things from how a season is to what HoF means would have to change which is a bigger deal than you might think. I think they could accomplish the same making first round one game instead of 3. Game 1 winner wins like 90% time anyway. The real reason the owners are pushing for 154 is that MLB shares revenue during regular season more evenly and playoffs give a lot of money to owners and very little to players.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#484943) #
You fix it by winning the division.

The wild cards are consolation prizes and are meant to go through an ordeal.

If you're the Rays, do you want to host the Yankees in a best of 5 or best of 7? If the division series is 7 for both than yeah, start with the White Sox.

Season was 154 until 1960.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#484944) #
Apparently the Jays plan to sign 16 year old Junior Fortunato for over 3M.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#484945) #
"You fix it by winning the division."

Yes, but winning the East is hard and winning the other divisions is easy.
[ Reply to This ]
electric carrot - Thursday, October 08 2026 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#484946) #
"Apparently the Jays plan to sign 16 year old Junior Fortunato for over 3M."

I don't know anything about that player -- but his name is fantastic! I'm for it.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Friday, October 09 2026 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#484947) #
Reducing the amount of regular season games seems like a no brainer. There's no need for that many regular season games in the current playoff format, and even less so if they expand the playoffs even further to add more teams (which I'm sure MLB will want to do).

Looking at the list of FAs and realistic trade targets, it's leaning a little too much on the older side. Lindor will be 33 next season. As will Marte. As will Seager. Lowe will be 32. Suzuki and Arozarena will both be 32 as well. Arraez will be 30 with the same type of massive defensive turnaround that Lowe had (not something I'd bank on moving forward). They wouldn't touch Chisholm with a ten foot pole to I'll exclude him even though he fits the age the Jays should be looking at.

I don't know what it would take to get CJ Abrams, but I think I'd lean towards a trade like that + Sato, and then hope for internal improvement (Vlad specifically). I don't mind an old rotation with a young offensive core, but don't want the Jays to become the opposite. Someone like Abrams (doesn't have to be him...someone in that mold...arb eligible and young) plus a 28 year old Sato mixed with Vlad, Gimenez, Kirk, and Barger who are still sub-30 as well (also Bateman) would make me a bit more optimistic about the team beyond 2027 rather than acquiring a bunch of 32 year old's and hoping for that same sustainable success.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, October 09 2026 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#484948) #
If the league moves to a 154 game schedule with Monday off every week, a tandem starter setup becomes much more possible.  Let's say a club has two pitchers who are very good and starting pitcher quality who can go for 6-7 innings on 6 days rest.  They pitch on Tuesday and Friday.  The club than has 4 pitchers- two right-handed and two left-handed with one of each in a tandem.  Tandem 1 goes on Wednesday and Saturday and Tandem 2 on Thursday and Sunday.  Each member of the tandem goes 3 innings, with the order depending on any weakness in the opposing starting lineup.  Tandem members get 2 days rest until the next outing and then 3 days rest for the following.  Obviously there is some flexibility- if a pitcher doesn't have it on a particular day, you take him out and ideally have a dedicated long man ready for that situation and to fill in if injury strikes one of the tandem.  If a team lacks any front-line pitchers, it could run entirely on tandems.  

It seems to me that the regular moderate workload and regular rest could lead to improved performance from pitchers in tandems.  


[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Friday, October 09 2026 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#484949) #
With a few notable exceptions, more and more teams are making every playoff game some variant of a bullpen game. They've decided that strategy is the one that gives them the best chance to win the game. At some point, some bright spark is going to ask themselves why, if that's the case in the playoffs, some variant of that strategy isn't the best strategy during the regular season.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, October 09 2026 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#484950) #
The bright sparks in Tampa have, I am sure, thought about this in great depth.  The opener began in Tampa, and I imagine that the "Tampa Tandem" will be a thing when it suits the talent cheaply available to them.  
[ Reply to This ]
Post-Mortem and Post-Season | 149 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.