'"The amount of writing and podcasting on his comments..."

Is not surprising, but is frustrating to me.

I must be the only fan in Jays-world that could not give less of a crap about those comments.

I'm much more interested in him getting his mental health balance right before next year than I am him saying out loud what you're not supposed to say out loud.'
So an interesting article on fangraphs about whether the WBC participants significantly underperform that season. The answer on the whole is not so much. But I could see Jr. being one of the individual ones who did get affected. Zero to back this on, but if Vlad got minorly injured but it lingered instead of going away (the back that had supposedly bothered him for a while), and it affected his mechanics (heard he has a complicated swing), and trying hard affected his mental health...Yeah. I think the only thing to hold on to Vlad is whether he kept quiet about the injury & tried to play through instead of resting and that aggravated or made it linger.Maybe not asking for help (medical, psychological, whatever). I think the team has a lot of responsibility for not sitting him when they found out, and otherwise trying to mitigate the issues (obviously we don't know what went on behind the scenes). And from what has come out about Vlad talking to Schneider, I think it's clear there's no team sports psychologist working with everyone (and maybe some players aren't comfortable speaking to any that are affiliated with the team, if there is ANYONE). It's a complicated situation where the rich player looks bad for being a human. Regular closed door business policies make knowing the truth difficult unless someone talks about it, but the team seems to have dropped the ball on their end. 

George Springer signed a $150m, six year contract with the Jays.

Over the six years he has delivered 15 WAR, so $10M per WAR.

Based on the dollars per WAR when he signed six years ago I think that's a small under perform versus pay.

In his previous six seasons with Houston he had 26 WAR.

I was sure Vlad was ready for a breakout season - his amazing playoffs (397/494/795) and his great WBC (.444/476/944) suggested he was ready for a signature season. Instead he flopped (263/335/360). Yet despite that flop he was worth 1.3 bWAR/1.2 fWAR suggesting he still had value - sub an average regular, but above replacement even in a nightmare season.

$10M a WAR is about average. It varies a bit with quality as a 0-1 win player might be more like $8 per WAR while a 3+ win player might be closer to $12M per WAR. So $150M for 15 WAR over 6 years - 2.5 per year on average - seems a fair contract. I don't think it is an underpay, but I also don't think it's an overpay. We paid for a borderline star player and that's what we got.

The Jays absolutely have psychologists on staff. It’s been written about a lot (and mocked by many when the team was less successful). If Vladdy didn’t avail himself of the resources, that’s on him.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/big-read-inside-toronto-blue-jays-high-performance-department/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-lannan-m-a-cmpc%C2%AE-267998b2?utm_source=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=member_ios

Yeah its $10M per WAR now but I think six years ago it wasn't that high.

I noted that Kaz Okamoto was interviewed on Sportsnet after the game but there was no gatorade shower. Has Vlad backed off or does Kaz get an exception?

Vlad was right. His contact is guaranteed.
He's not paid to hit 40 bombs. Santander is.

Obviously, he doesn't suck on purpose.
He trains hard and plays his position well.

Vladdy wasn't right about anything, and his comments were extremely idiotic. If he thinks that people are upset because he didn't hit 40 HRs (as opposed to absolutely sucking), he's truly clueless.

I won't comment on his training, because fans have no clue what the truth is there. Reading about how many swings he takes in the cage is meaningless.

It's fair to say one would never boo a player who looks like he's giving his all, but it's also fair if fans paying good money to watch the team to play boo its highest paid player who stinks. It would certainly happen in New York and Philadelphia.

Bichette wasn’t much better than Vladdy this year:

158 G, 686 PA, .261/.312/.393, 18 HR, 96 wRC+

His Savant Batting Run Value are in the 20th percentile, his Baserunning Run Value are in the 12th percentile, and his Fielding Run Value are in the 45th percentile (Vladdy’s metrics here are 23, 40, 81).

Bichette did improve somewhat in the second half (109 wRC+ versus 88 in the first half). Vladdy was worse in the second half than he was in the first half.

Bo is making $42m per year, albeit on a much shorter contract than Vladdy’s.

How the mighty have fallen. A year ago we viewed these players very differently.

Guerrero's interview IMO is the beginning salvo of a long, messy divorce from the Jays - I think there is probably more unreported clubhouse stuff that happened - With that interview the fans will not be as forgiving in the future, the FO will have to pivot to other players and it's unlikely things will ever be the same. I think Guerrero wants out - of course no team will take that contract now but if he has a big season next year or a couple of good seasons he will agitate to leave and the FO will probably accommodate and pivot to new stars. I expect Guerrero will be playing for another before we reach the midpoint of his contract.

Dan & Joe were speculating on air last night about the rapidly approaching offseason & training regimens.

They presumed guys with heavy workloads like Mason Fluharty would initially relax for some time & do mostly nothing.

OTOH, they mentioned that the org was already putting an offseason plan in place for Guerrero Jr to maximize the coaching time between now & Dec 1st when the no-contact period begins with the pending lockout.

Certainly not ideal that there's only an 8-10 week window that the coaches & support staff have to "fix" Vlad before radio silence begins. And Guerrero Jr. is then left to cure what ails him on his own.

There was also insinuation that orgs would put pre-lockout coaching & training plans in place. But then it was completely up to the player if & how dedicatedly any of it was followed.

Vlad is an unmovable contract. Even if he and the team wanted a divorce and his performance was actually good, it would be nearly impossible to move him due to how long the contract is. They gave him a full NTC, a signing bonus structure for tax benefits, and probably other perks that Vlad put in there that Ed Rogers was more than happy to give him. It’s the most player friendly contract in sports. That’s not desirable to begin with, much less for a first baseman who has had 2 elite seasons in his career and makes quotes like the one he made the other day.

I’d say the likeliest scenarios with Vlad’s Jays career is either a mid contract DFA assuming the performance gets to the point of diminishing returns or more likely just keeping him for the next 13 years where he can retire a Jay and maybe reach some milestones that Rogers can milk for attendance/marketing down the road. Either way it’s a pretty dire situation when year 1 of the deal looks like this.

Arizona is designating Jesus Sanchez for assignment.

Vlad's comments being right or wrong isn't the focus...it's the timing and how tone deaf Mr. Guerrero is. I do agree with other poster that there is more than meets the eye/ear. Mr. G is clearly not happy. I also think Vlad will recover and have some big 4 WAR+ seasons and can be traded as salaries go up.

I think there's a fault within the org because Shapiro and Atkins were forced to do this contract by Rogers. To me his take by Vlad is very very bad. He said what was in his mind, disregarded the temperature in the room as if it doesn't matter, doubled down and then came back after his dad told him he was wrong and to apologize to everyone. This after one of his worse seasons with no in game adjustments to his approach mechanically. Just not a good look for him at all.

The worse it gets for him the worse it also gets for the FO who haven't done enough to get offensive support for him.

FWIW, Vlad in September: .289/.353/.421/.774

Not "normal" Vlad by any stretch but you don't want to go out hitting like he was in August.

(June was his worst month)

Sorry, Mike. ALL contracts are partly based on whats been done. Some more than others (yes, as a sign of what is possible in future over the term.) And it's always a bet.

Re the strike zone I've seen Guerrero cheated with bad pitches. Yes, that creates doubt, and bad decisions to challenge. That doesn't change the bad calls and effects of flaws in the system.

Of course, what's been done informs in part what one expects, but the reason Vladimir Guerrero Jr. received much more than Max Scherzer in 2026 has nothing to do with what each has achieved but what the team and the player expected of them based on their ages and what they have done so far.  Each is getting paid though based on expectations of what they would achieve in 2026.  

Has Vlad given up this year and just counting the minutes until the season is over?

His at bats today are abysmal.

In my opinion Vlad needs to spend some time with a sports psychologist.

I'm going to miss baseball during the lockout, but the sooner this season ends, the better.

Imagine if one of us wrote in the March predictions thread:

"The Blue Jays will trade for Brett Bateman (the Cubs #30 prospect) at the deadline and he'll hit .325/.400/.422 in around 180 PA and play a strong center field. He'll almost double the WAR that Vladdy will post this season in over 600 PA. Vladdy will be a very good defensive first baseman in this scenario."

What would be the odds of that happening?

The Vlad situation is unparalleled and highly likely to be untenable very soon in light of his attitude towards his contract and season long slump which was exposed by his comments...that's the mix of the issue.

Everybody has an opinion, or perhaps 100 opinions, so here’s mine.

From what I’ve seen of Vlad, he’s not blessed with absolutely top-drawer pitch recognition skills. In particular, he has trouble recognizing spin on pitches down and away. (This is a common failing among right-handed hitters with power and more or less upright stances - Joe Carter and Vernon Wells both had difficulty with this.) if he adjusts to this, he risks losing the extra fraction of a second needed to time up the fastball. (Hitting is hard!)

When he’s at his physical and mental best, he can wait on the outside pitch and shoot it to right and still launch fastballs if he guesses that one is coming. But he might not be at his physical best due to various nagging injuries, and he’s certainly not at his mental best.

My theory is that Vlad needs to be in a strong lineup - to be the first among equals. In a better-hitting lineup, he would take walks when pitchers give him nothing to hit and pass the baton to the next guy in the lineup. And, with other strong hitters in the lineup, they would be forced to pitch to him some or most of the time. But, because the Jays’ offense is so weak, pitchers don’t ever have to give Vlad anything - they can bust him down and away all day and give him the walk or the single to right. Thus, he can’t hit the home runs that the fans demand from him.

Toronto sports fans can be demanding and unforgiving. Vlad’s peaks - 2021 and the 2025 postseason - have been so high that he has been seen as a disappointment for most of his time here. And I fear that one more bad season or unfortunate comment will force the Jays to ship Vlad out of town, eating much of his contract, in order to placate the fan base (in much the same way that Jeff Hoffman, a perfectly functional relief pitcher, was sent away).

But getting rid of Vlad would be a disaster. He still his ability - he’s just gone into a dark hole of physical and mental adjustments. The worst-case scenario is not that Vlad doesn’t live up to his potential - it’s that he returns to being a star somewhere else. Do we really want to spend a decade, for example, watching highlights of Vlad hitting balls over the Green Monster as a member of the Red Sox?

I agree with your sentiment and analysis but don't see how or when the Blur Jays FO will get multiple strong offensive hitters to string into a line up. It will be Vlad, Kirk and Okamoto and maybe Lowe or Suzuki. To test your theory out the front office needs far above average hitters like in the past:

Below is how many performing strong hitters Vlad had around him that year:

Gurriel jr, Springer, Bichette, Kirk, Semien, Hernandez = 6 in 2021
Springer, Kirk, Bichette = 3 in 2022
Springer, Kirk, Bichette = 3 in 2023
Nobody = 0 in 2024
Springer, Bichette, Kirk, Barger = 4 in 2025
Springer (injured), Kirk (injured), Barger (injured), Okamoto = 2 in 2026

2024 Apringer and Bichette were awful and Kirk struggled. 2026 I'm counting Springer and Kirk as one player combined due to injuries. Maybe count 2.5 max. You can see there is a pattern matching Dave's hypothesis. Less offensive support directly leads to Vlad's bigger struggles.

Thanks Dave Till that was a thoughtful take on Vladdy. I think I agree with you on all points. I have four things to add:

1. My feeling about Vladdy is that he is kind of a sensitive character and that little things can throw him off his game and little things can also turn him into a beast. Some of this moodiness I think is inevitable but that mitigating the downside of the equation is something management and Vladdy need to work on this offseason.

2. There are some things out of the frame at the moment that we don't know yet, either physical or mental and probly both that are at play for his results this year. I expect this fall/winter we will find out a bit more if not the whole picture.

3. There is nothing that will dissuade me that Vladdy is a great hitter when healthy.

4. He is a hard worker and cares a ton. One only needs to see the defensive improvement at 1st base for evidence of that.

I pretty much agree with everything written here, especially the observations about his struggles with pitches down and away. I also agree that this was the kryptonite for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., just as it was for Joe Carter, Vernon Wells, and many other right-handed power hitters. In the case of Carter he adjusted by hitting that pitch until he got older.

I also think Valddy is so focused on hitting the ball harder than anyone else ever has that it affects his pitch recognition. I don't subscribe to the idea that he was injured all year, at least not any more than most everyday players are over the course of a season. (normal wear and tear)

I think somewhere around the middle of the season, the team needed to stop playing him every day. If John Schneider is such a big fan of Vladdy, why put him through that? He was clearly struggling and, for whatever reason, could not find a way out of it. Any other player would have been given a break to work on adjustments away from game action.

That leads to another observation that I haven't seen mentioned. Everyone talks about how hard he works, how many swings he takes, and how dedicated he is. But I rarely hear the hitting coaches discussed in relation to his struggles, or how they were working with him to make adjustments. Sometimes I wonder if he's effectively his own hitting coach. I can't remember a time when Vladdy himself talked about how his coaches were helping him. It seems strange that he never made an adjustment, that I noticed, all year long.

Anyway, every star player has a down year. I expect Vladdy to be right back to his normal numbers next season. Maybe he even takes it to another level if he learned something from this year's disaster.

I also believe they need to add two legitimate power bats to the lineup. I don't think those players exist in free agency, which creates a problem. It probably means making a major trade and parting with some prospects we would rather keep. Otherwise, we're looking at another half-baked solution that could easily result in another season outside the playoffs. Especially since I doubt the stars will align again where we will see a .500 team sneak into the postseason like this year.

Springer signing was a pretty easy success. $/WAR isn't linear. Would do that signing again every year. I think Vlad has a lot of mental issues but his inability to adjust is biggest concern for me. It's hard for any player to make changesz but seems almost impossible for Vlad. I am hopeful he'll figure it out because the skills are there and I don't see much point in being worried about what happens in five years.

The Springer signing was really saved by George's outlier 2025 which perfectly coincided with the rest of the club's Cinderella run.

The other 3 of the last 4 years Springer was a league average or below bat whom was quickly becoming unplayable in the field.

That's certainly not the worst scenario for the tacked-on years of a FA contract. George did manage to stay on the diamond more in his older age than he did at the start of his contract.

George also brought other intangibles when it came to marketing, to positive energy, to clubhouse chemistry, etc.

But his 150 mil deal looks a lot different without the completely unexpected career year during the 5th year of the contract.

Without 2025, essentially the club only received 1.5 years of prime Astros George.

A few thoughts: 

-WAR is a rate state, right? The more you play at the same level, the more WAR you accumulate (or don't accumulate). Springer had significant injuries, so that he played the equivalent of 4.8 seasons (775 / 162). 14.8 (BWar) / 4.8 = 3.1 (some rounding off). 3.1 WAR / season (when in the lineup) is a pretty good to very good player, especially for a DH who gets no defensive adjustment (I could be wrong on that). And he seemed like a great guy while here. If we had let him recover more from injuries (we always needed him back yesterday), his WAR/650 might have been even higher, but less time on the field. Like this year, clearly playing hurt for what, 50+ games, just to give us a chance?

-Vlad's comments: the way I initially took them was that he meant that the Jays weren't paying him to hit 40 HR every year, but to keep hitting like he had been, OPS > 850, regardless of how many HRs, etc. If he just hit 100 doubles every year, who cares about HR? But if he really meant that this was a "thanks" for past service and nothing more, with zero expectations going forward? Hoo boy, is it going to be a long, long drawn out thing.. Especially if the Leafs are mediocre to start the season and the Toronto sports media needs clicks.. (if the Leafs are hot or a hot mess starting the season, then there's plenty to write about there and offseason baseball will fade a bit, IMHO).

-While cheering for Vlad as a Blue Jay, and thinking he seems like a nice human being overall, I was never a huge fan of giving him this kind of contract -  too many gut feelings of: remember Prince Fielder - another "big" guy who swung really, really hard, or Ryan Howard or Miguel Cabrera - all of those guys were essentially finished by 30-32, .. I just saw too much variation in Vlad, too much bravado / look at me, and the type of body that doesn't age well - I should know..  He wants to be David Ortiz, but I don't think he's quite that. When Bichette clearly wanted out, and we couldn't land the other big fish (Soto, Ohtani), we basically only had Vlad left as a consolation prize, flaws and all. So here we sit and wait and hope that we didn't sell the farm for a pumpkin..

Doubt the Jays do a Verlander for Scherzer today - it'd be cool to have his kid come out for him but after it was done yesterday I can't see it being done today. What would be funny is having Verlander drive up here from Detroit to pull him though.

As long as LF doesn't drop a ball, it should be OK.

When it's all said and done. the Jays will end up with 78 or 79 win and the last wild card spot winner will have 80 or 81.

They choked against weak teams in September, just like they choked against weak team in April.
April: Colorado 1-2, White Sox 0-3. Twins 1-2. 1-2 Arizona.
May: 1-5 against the Rays
June: Houston 1-2, Texas 0-4.
July: Seattle 1-2, Rays 1-3August: actually a good month

I saw a comment from Donaldson that Guerrero isn't a 500M player.

Donaldson, himself, had an 8 HR season in his last year in Toronto.
He cashed on later on a 37 HR season with Atlanta but hit 6, 26, 15, and 13 in the following years.

On the other hand, the Mets didn't think Alonso was worth multiple years at 30M+.
It's not easy to hit like Alonso did when you're switching leagues.

An other way to look at it is the walks.
Vladdy had 86 walks in 21, down to 58 in 22, but gradually increasing back to 67, 72, 81 but down this year to 56.
So, there's probably a few dozen bad pitches that he swung at this year that he would not have last year.

Donaldson's 5 HR campaign in his final year with the Jays came in an injury-riddled season with only 159 PAs before his controversial trade to Cleveland for the playoffs at the end of August.

Vlad had already accumulated that many PAs in his awful 2026 by mid-May. During a time when his April numbers were still very Vlad-like (but still without a SkyDome bomb).

there's no real defense for the end of season fade after they spent a day in playoff position (6-12 since is pretty indefensible) but for me, looking back on the season, I think they were really hurt by that Houston-Texas homestand.

There's what should have been three more wins right there in a single week. I don't know if that would have made any part of the rest of the season better, but it was a hole they shouldn't have been in.

I wish we had seen more of this Scherzer when it mattered. I don't mean that in a negative way, just that he wasn't able to perform like this on the regular.

Anyone else feel he's decided to hang 'em up, and just wants to leave it all on the field today?

The season has been bad but today is fun.

I don't see how Bateman doesn't get a LOT of rope next year.. 

Bateman is not a .300 hitter but he's someone who gets on base, steal bases and play defense.

I don't think he needs rope.

Now, they might decide to play someone else in CF. They have Lukes, Barger, Santander. They could pick Straw's option. Clause could have an amazing spring. They could sign somebody else.

That  was the 2026 Blue Jays season. Now let us never speak of it again.

The debacle in Baltimore in early June when they had climbed all the way back to .500 and then blew a four run lead in the ninth, stung. I was at the Sunday game of the home Texas series during late June the home stand and the collective disgust and disbelief in the full house RC crowd that day was palpable. You’d could feel even the players were starting to believe it wasn’t going to happen this year, getting swept four games at home against a team that just wasn’t that good.

They never had another head punch (the Bregman game at Wrigley gets a pass, because they battled back in that game and Clement made the catch of the year to save it). They played great ball for over a month, but the Monday loss to the Tigers sealed it for me. I made no bones about the fact it was unacceptable to use a pitcher such as Joe Mantiply in such a key spot in crunch time of the season. I ended up being vindicated, in my view, since about a week later they used Rogers three times in three games and DFA’d Mantiply soon after. We went down with our last gasp being Joe freaking Mantiply. Ugh.

Anyways. I am a big Santander fan, one of the few. I hope he comes back strong and starts to live up to the faith the front office put him. Obviously, Vlad Jr. needs a complete offseason to heal both mentally and physically….because man was that tough to watch.

And as always, I will continue to hope (confidently so) the team swings for the fences both in dollars spent and in prospects given up to bring elite talent to the Toronto. Because, for as many Spencer Miles there are, there’s a million Glen Sparkman’s or Joe Biagini’s or Elvis Luciano’s or Bill Risleys. I lived through the years we were excited we were trading all stars for Luke Prokopec, or that Tanyon Sturtze would give us 200 innings, or Joe Lawrence was going to blossom into a solid major league second baseman.

My point is, it’s fun to be a Jays fan these days. Toronto is a destination again. They spend a ton of cash, they’re the talk of the country for 4-5 months a year and a year they miss the playoffs is a major disappointment. We legitamtley believe they could acquire almost anyone during the winter. I’m preaching to the choir here, but man….that was not the case here for many, many, years.

Thanks all for another fun season.

Longenhagen (Fangraphs) chat Sept 25:
12:29
appayipyip: Brett Bateman ran an unsustainable BABIP, but the contact ability seems real. With his speed and defense is there an everyday CF in there? Or is he a 4th OF who ran an unsustainable BABIP?
12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: The thing about him that I think is bunk are his defensive metrics. That’s a fringe CF for me. Love the bat to ball piece and think his move in the box allows him to get more out of his little body than I expect. Think he’s a piece but not a 50 or anything like that.

I noticed that in the Friday chat and didn't think his response worthy of comment at the time. He's obviously not watching Blue Jays games and his opinion of Bateman's defence is pretty well worthless.

I don't disagree but I think it's early to draw conclusions about how good of a major-leaguer Bateman is (take a look at another Brett -- Lawrie -- for an example of someone who came on extremely strong in his first 170 PA in the majors, but then never came close to regaining those heights).

I very much like what we've seen from Bateman, but we should have a better sense of how good he is after he's played a full season or two in the majors. MLB pitchers will no doubt find some new ways to attack him in 2027 (if there is a MLB season).

RE Longenhagen's opinion:

**IF** he's right about the defense, that offense likely doesn't carry him anywhere else and that makes him a 4th outfielder. You can accept marginal offense from a good CF (see Kwan for example) and an above average catcher or SS (Gimenez, albeit for not-so-much money) but not elsewhere

Bannon talking about Bieber and his impression that Bieber *REALLY* wants to stay. It strikes me is that they should offer him a deal like we've seen a few times before that has a base of 10 or 12 and escalation based on starts - say he can progress from 10 million to 20 million if he reaches 30 starts or whatever. Maybe build in a two-year mutual option that kicks in at something like 25 starts.

Question for posters who watched the games. Do you agree with Longo's assessment of Bateman's defence? I don't.

I haven't seen any causes of concern with Bateman's defense in CF.

He has a surprisingly strong arm. He would've had an outfield assist today throwing behind the runner at 2nd if Gimenez had held on to the throw.

He almost robbed a HR recently. His range & reads seem fine.

A backhanded compliment concern might be that he's a dirtbag between his all-out play & his D3 coaching father pedigree. This might lead him to getting hurt more often. He had a catch this weekend where he ran full-speed into the wall in a nothing game.

I saw it suggested elsewhere that Schneider pulling Scherzer after 7+ innings actually costed Max a million bucks. As his strong start in this final game left him one out short of 85 innings on the year and his next innings bonus.

A costly walk to the leadoff batter in the 8th. Obviously no intent on Schneider's part as Max was closing in on 110 pitches, his most since 2022.

One would hope that cheap Rogers would give Max the million as a retirement gift anyway considering his final Quality Start put him within hand grenade range of his performance bonus.

Bateman is a 4th OF/bench player or so we thought at time of trade. Now that he has had his first cup we can see what his ceiling is. Once pitchers adjust and we see his worst then we should have a better idea.

The important thing is that his floor is higher than Myles Straw, his mid is higher than Lukes and his ceiling is big time WAR level on the cheap. The point is that he's the best option for 2026 in CF to start.

Guy looks like an amazing 8/9 hitter to me on a team *not with Luke's, Schneider and Straw playing the OF with him.

I'll reiterate for something like the tenth time that we should pick up Straw's option but that Straw should not be a starter but should be a LIDR and PR and backup CF/OF. 140+ GP, but at most 30 GS.

I think Bateman's defense has looked pretty good, and we've had Kiermaier, Varsho, and Straw as CF over the past few years so if Bateman looks OK to us Jays fans we have an above average baseline that we are comparing him to. It has been a small sample size but I'd be much, much more skeptical of his hitting than his glove. But obviously he could give back some of his hitting and still be a good starting CF. I don't think you want to count on him if there is someone better in FA, but think he should be in the mix and should be well ahead of Straw or Lukes in the expectations for CF next year. And a middle infielder who can hit is higher on the wish list if one could be found (fixing Vlad is highest on the needs list, but that isn't really an obvious FA thing. Getting a better lineup helps a little but I think this thread oversells it: A better lineup always helps everyone as you get to play more PA against weaker parts of opponents hitting and better/power hitters feast the most on that by crushing those AAAA bullpen arms and overworked tired starters that have been hit around).

Terrible take by Longenhagen. An admission he doesn't watch him tbh.

Not only does Bateman pass the defensive eye test with flying colours, but it's supported by any flavour of defensive statistic you prefer.

Of all CFs in baseball statcast has him top 5 in reaction, burst, feet vs avg, feet covered, out% and out% on 90th percentile plays. #6 in arm strength.

Agree with Ugly. I don't think defensive stats in short samples are very useful but when defensive stats and eye test both say the same thing, I don't get why you would think that it's misleading. Like how many times has he seen him in AAA where he thinks that overrides his major league performance? 3? Maybe Bateman isn't elite and he's only very good? Ok. Possible. He was very lucky by BABIP and will regress offensively. For sure. But to say he isn't a CF seems bizarre when he very clearly looks the part and nothing says otherwise.

Mike, I think you were higher on Lawrie than most after his hot start…?

The funny thing about this evaluation on Bateman’s defense is that the typical error for outfielders made by prospect evaluators is to watch a super athletic player and assume that that makes them a good defender (even if they are not). Bateman has obvious athletic traits for an OF (speed, arm strength, etc). To evaluate Bateman as a poor defender would require extensive in person viewing which I do not believe most, if any, of these prospect evaluators to do. This feels like small sample size error evaluation. Bateman has looked like an above average defender (not elite) by my eye test so far.

There have been a few Brett Lawrie mentions in the thread regarding caution in putting too much stock in a SSS rookie debut.

There’s certainly some wisdom in that concern.

A big difference though is that there were makeup concerns with Lawrie from Day 1. IIRC, those red flags were part of the reason that a 1st round talent like Brett was available for the relatively low price of a lightly-used Shaun Marcum.

Back in the Internet 1.0 era when small blogs like TamRa's still dominated Jays' discourse, there was an infamous pic of Lawrie partying like a bro with 40s taped to his hands that circulated constantly.

Baseball is hard & cruel, but it certainly seemed as though makeup issues played a large role in Lawrie flaming out of baseball entirely while chronologically still being in his athletic prime.

Bateman might still fail even if he is industrious & affable with a good pedigree. But at least so far, it seems people around him are saying all the right things about him. So he has that going for him as well.

what Lawrie did at 21 was beyond exceptional. Elite across the board with no glaring warnings of any specific flukes built in. Unfortunately he just wasn't a serious person.

Lawrie also looked fantastic in AAA with a 153 WRC+. His BABIP in the majors was only .318. Obviously, there was going to be some regression but he looked genuinely fantastic. I think he has a very different career with a different personality. He was out of baseball at 27 years old despite being good enough to play somewhere.

Bateman is not the same. He has a massively inflated BABIP and he does not hit the ball hard at all. He deserves playing time next year but you can't just pencil him in as a starter or anything. I think most likely outcome for Bateman is like a worse version of Steven Kwan. Like a 95 WRC+ sort of guy with solid D and very little power.

Even if Bateman turns out to be a 95 wRC+ hitter, with his plus speed that will make him pretty close to as valuable as Varsho (Varsho is a career 95 wRC+ hitter). A little less defense and a little more base running. I don’t remember people worrying that Varsho wasn’t an everyday player. I think Bateman has a decent chance to do better than 95 wRC+ but I agree that one should expect BABIP regression.

Taking a quick look at Steven Kwan's career, he certainly has an unusual profile.

He's a 4x Gold Glove winner, but exclusively in LF.

I had no idea how much of his value is derived from him corner OF defense. As per bWAR, he's accumulated double the Fielding Run value than his Batting Runs that I tend to attribute to him more as a contact-heavy pesky leadoff hitter.

He's also had a few ~95 OPS+, ~.700ish OPS offensive season that were still in the 4 WAR range due to defense & baserunning contributions. And he's only stealing 20 or so bags annually.

Kwan is doing all this despite losing some positional value as almost exclusively a corner OF as per the WAR metrics.

This made me wonder why such an elite defender is playing exclusively LF. And whom have the Guardians playing been playing in CF for the last 5 years keeping Kwan to the LF corner.

The answer isn't entirely clear. Cleveland hasn't had a regular CF since they banished Myles Straw to the minors for 2024. For Kwan's first few seasons, Myles did get the majority of the CF starts, which makes sense at least for defensive purposes.

There was a half season of old friend Bradley Zimmer's starts in CF as well.

But since the start of 2024, it seems there's been a whole carousel of mediocrity lining up to Kwan's left - Angel Martinez, Tyler Freeman, Daniel Schneerman?. None of these guye are household names. Or can keep an OPS over .650.

Kwan finally got a half season's worth of CF starts in 2026 with 77.

There’s obviously some good explanation for Kwan being kept out of CF for so long despite elite corner OF defense (? arm strength, ?lack of range, etc).

While a Steven Kwan would be a very high-level outcome for Bateman (Kwan already has a 14 HR season), there are certainly a few advantages working in Brett's favour - true CF defender, no positional adjustment penalty, possible potential for more baserunning value via the SB, can still be a very good 3-4 WAR player even by simply clearing an OPS .700, etc.

There’s obviously some good explanation for Kwan being kept out of CF for so long despite elite corner OF defense

I don't know what the answer is, but Cleveland similarly kept Andres Gimenez at 2B despite not having any clearly superior options at short.

It may be that, like hitting, Cleveland believes that the value of incrementally better fielding is not linear. Having someone play a position at which they are an elite defender rather than a good defender has value over and above the marginal increased value at another position at which the might merely be “good”. I don’t know if that is true or if it is what they think but it is true for hitting so why not fielding?

Yep, weeks ago I mentioned Kwan as a possible alternative comp for Bateman (when others were floating Brett Butler as a comp).

Mike, I vaguely recall you predicting a 10 WAR season from Lawrie at some point. I could be wrong (or maybe someone else made that prediction).

The team OBP cratering was something that I highlighted earlier this year as the team's biggest problem. The reasons for the team's offensive decline were multiple, but in order of significance I would order them as follows: a) cratering team OBP; b) cratering hitting with RISP; and c) mid range decline in power. Put another way, last year the team was extraordinarily lucky (it led all MLB with hitting with RISP (and by quite a bit)) in its hit sequencing but the 2025 team also deserved credit because it put itself in good position for that luck to be maximized by getting runners on base.

In the OBP department, Springer's decline and the change from Bichette to Okamoto played a much more significant part.

Amusing to consider a hacktastic talent like Bo to be the missing link to the OBP puzzle for the awful 2026 offensive decline.

Bo certainly had an awesome offensive year in '25 with an OBP of .357. But it was almost entirely fueled by his contact ability, riding a .311 BA and a below league-average IIRC BB% of 6.4.

Okamoto as a TTO player had a more disappointing debut season wrt to getting on base with an OBP of .310. So he's losing you 47 points of OBP to Bo the superstar.

But somewhat surprisingly, with a walk rate over 9%, he's essentially 50% better than Bo at receiving the free pass.

The main difference is that Kaz is also losing 80 points of BA to Bichette's career walk year.

Bateman covers lots of ground, doesn't take bad routes and has a strong arm.
I don't think I've seen him make amazing grabs, but lots of balls hit his way are routine play.

He might not hit .300 but even hitting .275, he fouls enough pitches and has enough plate discipline to get on base at a reasonable clip.
If he can steal a few bases--and everything suggests he can--he's great to have on base in front of Vlad.  By contrast, Clement has great ball to bat skills,  but swings at everything and doesn't walk much.

The Jays have drafted a lot of athletes with great speed who couldn't get on base enough for it to matter.
Bateman is not like that.

Btw, Eric Pardinho came out of the pen to get the final 3 outs as the Ottawa Titans won the Frontier Leagues Championship.

People didn't worry about Varsho being an everyday player because he was an elite defender who had a track record of handling lefties. Even if you liked Bateman's MLB defense, his MiLB track record shows a guy who struggled against LHP. His .293/.333/.362 at the big league level would certainly play, though.

Bo carried the Jays offense for large parts of the '25 season. It's not always about OBP, it's about grinding the opposing pitcher in big spots consistently. While Okamoto finished with a fantastic and valuable season line, before September his season mostly consisted of two extremely hot 7-10 day stretches surrounded by some abysmal weeks.

Varsho also joined a Jays team in 2023 that listed very much to the right and was looking for everyday LH bats.

Varsho had just enough power to make his bat playable. He also originally had some unique tools like the ability to drag bunt for a base hit.

But he also had some huge, frustrating holes in his offensive profile. He struck out a lot. He was vulnerable to the high fastball. He had contact issues. He could be very streaky. He had OBP issues, sometimes struggling to maintain .300.

Varsho felt like an interesting player that the FO acquired hoping he could find another gear (like Cease & Jesus Sanchez). He had an interesting profile as a former catcher whom somehow converted into a GG type CF defender.

But despite Varsho providing value & being popular, it does seem in the end that his next-level offensive potential never materialized.

Makes me think a little of Colby Rasmus. Though Rasmus seemed to have makeup concerns both pre & during his Jays tenure. And Rasmus' future potential was more concentrated in his bat.

I see Lukes as a prime trade candidate to bolster depth in another area. He's still controllable, has proven to be a reliable hitter against RHP and can play all three outfield positions. Ideally, he's either a useful throw in to get a deal over the finish line, or possibly an attractive "your depth piece for my depth piece move." With the return of Santander and Barger and the emergence of Bateman and McAdoo (not to mention Smith being an intriguing versatile, cheaper, piece) he is a bit redundant on the roster.

I had originally thought Keys was the guy to get moved, but I actually think the Jays think he might have Ben Rice potential.