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So now that Bo is gone we can start to think about his legacy and where he ranks with the greatest Blue Jay shortstops.

There aren't a lot of guys who I'd put on this list. Just 14 Jays are listed with 'primary position' as shortstop with 750+ PA as a Blue Jay all time (via FanGraphs), I made it that low so anyone who had 2 seasons or more as a semi-regular would qualify. So to help dig in here is chart with assorted stats...


WAR Playoffs
Name G PA HR R RBI SB AVG OBP SLG wRC+ BsR Off Def Av Av/650 FG BR Series G PA BA OBP Slg OPS SB CS
Tony Fernandez 1450 5900 60 704 613 172 .297 .353 .412 107 -2.5 50.6 99.9 36.3 4.0 35.1 37.5 4 24 98 333 381 402 784 5 1
Bo Bichette 748 3292 111 438 437 60 .294 .337 .469 122 -1.6 85.1 1.8 20.5 4.0 20 21 4 13 52 311 385 400 785 1 0
Alex Gonzalez 890 3634 83 407 350 85 .245 .304 .386 77 -0.3 -112.2 65.5 8.85 1.6 8 9.7 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Marco Scutaro 289 1272 19 176 120 21 .275 .362 .384 101 2.3 4.5 23.7 8.5 4.3 7.2 9.8 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Yunel Escobar 338 1464 24 167 115 9 .272 .335 .373 94 -4.2 -14.3 19.9 7.2 3.2 5.8 8.6 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
José Reyes 305 1385 23 188 122 61 .289 .334 .404 105 11.6 19.1 2.9 6.9 3.2 7.2 6.6 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Manuel Lee 753 2357 16 231 199 26 .254 .304 .323 75 -1.6 -71.1 48.6 6.45 1.8 5.5 7.4 5 20 65 180 215 230 445 0 0
Tony Batista 324 1364 80 186 238 7 .258 .301 .507 97 -0.8 -5.4 23.7 6.2 3.0 6.3 6.1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Troy Tulowitzki 238 987 36 101 122 2 .250 .313 .414 95 -6.5 -12.2 15.9 4.5 3.0 3.8 5.2 5 20 83 215 253 380 633 0 0
John McDonald 549 1453 17 160 140 26 .243 .278 .340 60 2.2 -69.5 35.5 3.4 1.5 1.6 5.2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Chris Woodward 363 1188 26 147 135 6 .245 .298 .395 76 -1.3 -38.8 16.9 2.3 1.3 1.9 2.7 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Ryan Goins 449 1397 20 127 142 6 .228 .275 .335 64 -1.6 -60.8 20.6 2.1 1.0 0.6 3.6 3 14 46 146 186 244 430 0 0
Russ Adams 286 993 17 125 113 15 .247 .313 .372 78 3.7 -23.7 -17.7 -0.35 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Alfredo Griffin 982 3655 13 382 231 78 .249 .280 .327 62 -13.4 -176.0 28.8 -2.3 -0.4 -3.2 -1.4 3 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

I figured the more stats the better - easier to get a picture of each career this way imo.  
Extras...
  • Fernandez had 4 Gold Gloves, and 4 ASG appearances as a Jay, once making the top 10 in MVP voting even.
  • Bo made 2 ASG's and peaked at 11th for MVP and led the league in hits twice.
  • Tony Batista made an ASG as a Jay (hit 41 HR that year playing only at 3B)
  • Alfredo Griffin won Rookie of the Year as a Jay, and also made an ASG sorta - he only got in due to Alan Trammell pulling out at the last minute and he was there so to avoid the AL being short handed he was named as a replacement (was there to support his friend Dámaso García). Griffin also was on-deck when Joe Carter touched them all in '93 - imagine if they walked Carter and Griffin became the big hero - now that would've been weird and cool as it was his final ML game.
So going through the stats even lightly it is clear Fernandez is #1 and Bo #2 by a mile.  Both averaged 4 WAR per 650 PA as a Jay (using an average of BR WAR and FG WAR) which is beaten only by Marco Scutaro who was here only briefly but played his head off while here.  Found it very funny to see their playoff OPS were only 1 point apart over 4 playoff series each.  The quick 2 and done wild cards cut Bo's PA down drastically vs Fernandez though.  Fernandez' final 2 times as a Jay were odd - played 3B in the late 90's here, hit 400 over half a season, then went off to Japan for a year before going to Milwaukee briefly then being traded back here for a final farewell as a PH - thus far I think he is the only player to have his name put on the level of excellence while he was still playing - I was there to see it, we thought it was to be his final game, but they went on the road and he played 4 road games and 2 more home games to finish the year. 

So have hope Bo fans - if Fernandez could have 4 tours of duty here, Bo could return someday too, perhaps like Tony to win a World Series title.  Stranger things have indeed happened.
Best Jays Shortstops | 254 comments | Create New Account
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Michael - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 06:23 AM EST (#474945) #
Weird to have only 14 SS in the ~50 years, but yeah I agree Fernandez and Bo are clear top 2.
June Northey - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 10:00 AM EST (#474946) #
If I cut it down to 500 PA we get 20 players (add in Domingo Cedeno, Luis Gomez, Munenori Kawasaki, Tomas Perez, Felipe Lopez, and Dick Schofield). Go to 250 PA and you get 28 total (add in Freddy Galvis, Aledmys Díaz, Mike Bordick, Chris Gomez, Alex Gonzalez #2, David Eckstein, Hector Torres, and Richard Urena). At 100 it goes to 34 (Leo Jiménez, Royce Clayton, Tim Johnson, Rene Gonzales, Luis Sojo, and Adeiny Hechavarría). Note how it is primary position as stat splits by position aren't available at FanGraphs pre-2002. Checking guys who played at SS I don't get a lot more added in - just 10 guys have 2000+ innings at SS for the Jays, all on the list above. You need to get to under 1400 innings to hit guys not listed on the stats above - Luis Gomez and Dick Schofield the only ones over 900 innings who I didn't have on the stats listed.

Lists like this remind us of how young the Jays organization is compared to others. But also how lucky we have been to have Bichette & Fernandez here. The Astros (1962) have 3 SS's with 10+ fWAR - Correa (29), Dickie Thon, and Jeremy Peña. The last 2 are in the 14 range. The Angels (1961) have Jim Fregosi (42.6) as their only 20+ guy with Erick Aybar just shy of 20. The Braves have been around since 1871 (the maximum possible) and have NEVER had a SS with over 40 fWAR - best is 2 in the 30s (Herman Long 38.5 & Johnny Logan 31.3 when they were in Boston). Best while they've been in Atlanta is Jeff Blauser at 19.4. Wow. The Cubs, also from 1871 to now, have Ernie Banks (63.3), Joe Tinker (46.6), Ned Williamson (38) and Bill Dahlen (35) for the 30+ club - all retired years before the Jays existed. Heck, the Yankees only have 2 over 30 in Jeter (73) and Phil Rizzuto (41), followed by Roger Peckinpaugh (29.7) and just 2 more (Frankie Crosetti & Tom Tresh) over 20.

A shame Bo couldn't have stuck here longer, but like I said in the article, Fernandez returned a few times so nothing says Bo won't do the same someday and build his numbers higher (though probably at a different position). For now we can dream of the kids - Nimmala & Parker - hoping one of them can give us 3 over 20 someday.
greenfrog - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 10:02 AM EST (#474947) #
At his press conference with the Mets, Bo called NYC “one of the best cities in the world, maybe the best city in the world.”

At least he didn’t definitively say it was the best city in the world!

I hope the Blue Jays get to play the Mets in the WS.
June Northey - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 11:05 AM EST (#474949) #
Might as well try to get people to shift here for 'this day' talks too. Stuff like how Detroit is looking for starting pitching - wonder if they have any interest in Berrios? Their 1-4 look good, but #5 is weak. If I was them I'd just sign Bassitt and be good.
Ryan Day - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 11:22 AM EST (#474950) #
Tony Batista was such a fun player his first 2 years here, though I remember him as more of a shortstop than he actually was - only 98 games in 99, then moved over to third for the rest of his time in Toronto and his career.

More weirdo batting stances & pitching deliveries, please.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 01:20 PM EST (#474951) #
Bo also talked about how he liked that the NYM front office have a commitment to winning every year.

He mentioned that their fans are some of the best and he really wanted to play in front of them. Also talked about how the Mets stadium was one of his favourite to play in.

The conference was about 5 minutes long because nobody had any questions. No surprise that nobody wanted to ask him "do you have anything authentic to say other than kissing the buts of the fans and owner who just overpaid for your services?" Dude just came off a team that went to the World Series and is pretending like he's finally getting a chance to be on a competing team with strong fans.

Listen to the press conference and tell me it doesn't come off as a desperate attempt to cozy up to the NY media with BS comment/sentiments. It's only fair to call him out...
greenfrog - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 01:30 PM EST (#474952) #
To be fair, he probably said exactly what his agent told him to say. It’s boilerplate stuff. And Mets fans wouldn’t have wanted to hear about how great the Blue Jays, their fans, and the city of Toronto are (even if Bo believed those things).
June Northey - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 01:42 PM EST (#474953) #
Ah yes, good old Tony Batista - he was a lot of fun. Annoyed me when they moved him to 3B to make room for Alex Gonzalez #1 to be at SS during a high offense era. Just seemed silly at the time as A-Gon was not much at that point, nor would he ever be. Peaked with 2.2 bWAR at 23 and 24. He was off to a good start in '97 when he got hurt after just 38 games, which lead to Batista coming over and taking over at short. Just very, very poorly run teams back then. Scary looking back at the late 90's and the wasted years. Gillick left Ash a WS winner with a deep farm, strong scouts, etc. but by the end of the Ash era it was all gone. His only legacy being Roy Halladay who nearly flopped (10.49 ERA in 2000, then the one thing Ash did right - giving Halladay over to an old pitching coach to be rebuilt).

There were some fun times back then - the all offense teams which I now question on PEDs given 2 of the more infamous PED users were on the 98 team (Clemens and Canseco) and we saw a lot of guys hit more homers than expected, and others have career years. Ah well, with no testing what else did one expect?

Other fun batting stances were Fernandez (lightly holding the bat until the last second), and Garth Iorg (I used to imitate his crazy stance - not that it mattered, I couldn't hit regardless of how I stood, but I could get hit easily).
June Northey - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 01:57 PM EST (#474954) #
In the ex-Jay department - the White Sox signed Seranthony Domínguez for 2 years $20 mil total. Max Scherzer Could Wait To Sign After Opening Day - makes a ton of sense. Entering his age 41 season, his best value is in the playoffs so anyone signing him mid-season will be a contender who needs another starter (injuries/ineffectiveness/whatever) rather than wasting his innings in April/May/June.

On the trade front, MLB TR thinks there isn't much out there at this point. Donovan, Isaac Paredes (RH 3B/1B who can play 2B/SS, 115 OPS+ lifetime), Cubs might deal one of Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw. Boston has a few guys they might deal, but won't inside the division I'm sure. Washington is open to offers on CJ Abrams and CF Jacob Young but hasn't had an offer they liked yet. It'll be interesting to see if anything happens, but right now I suspect all will be quiet for a few weeks outside of some free agent cleanup going on (Valdez, Eugenio Suárez, Harrison Bader, Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Zac Gallen all hunting for jobs).
pooks137 - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 02:03 PM EST (#474955) #

It's pretty stark seeing the franchise encyclopedia drop off from Fernandez & Bichette at #1-2 at SS, to the homegrown 90s version of Alex Gonzalez who was always considered a bust for his tenure in TO.

Kind of surprising that all the other Jays SS had such a hard time compiling any WAR considering the position gets such a favourable position adjustment in the WAR formula for simply showing up & standing between 2nd & 3rd with your glove.

In the end, I'm okay with letting Bo walk. But the chart does portend that even league average SS are hard to find, keep & keep on the field.

Betting on history alone, it would suggest that the Jays likely can't just sit on their laurels with Gimenez & Clement. As past historical trends suggest that it's hard to extract value from non-generational homegrown SS year after year.

Mike Green - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 02:05 PM EST (#474956) #
 In the sequel to Bull Durham, Nuke is back in the minors on an injury rehab and Crash has made his way up from Visalia to triple A. Their reunion is touching.  The movie isn't out yet, but the trailer does include a clip of Crash updating his cliches for Nuke who will be a free agent at the end of the year and wants to know what he should say:
"I'm so glad to be here in the greatest city of the world playing for a team that wants to win the World Series every year, and the good lord willing, we'll win a few together"
bpoz - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 04:36 PM EST (#474957) #
Over time I have developed a gut feeling about which teams are good at developing which kind of players. If I was looking for a decent IF I would make a trade (minor trade) with Oakland. Developing IFs is their strength IMO.
June Northey - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 04:57 PM EST (#474958) #
For fun I thought I'd check what I posted last year. Comparison of Jays Past by Position. Might want to do an update of this for 2026. Best ever at each position was covered by fWAR.
  • C: 2022 7.9 (mostly Kirk/Jansen); 1B: 1993 8.3 (Olerud); DH: 2022 8.5 (Springer/Kirk)
  • 2B: 1992 6.0 (Alomar), 3B: 2010 8.7 (Bautista/Encarnacion), SS: 1987 5.2 (Fernandez)
  • LF: 2006 6.6 (Johnson/Catalanotto); CF: 1992 7.3 (White); RF: 2011 8.7 (Bautista)
  • SP: 2008 18.7 (Burnett/Halladay/Litsch/Marcum); RP: 1989 8.9 (Henke/Ward/Wells/Wills)
So what did the Jays get from each this year?

C: 6.7; 1B: 3.2; 2B: 2.0; 3B: 2.9; SS: 4.4; LF: 2.6; CF: 4.4; RF: 1.9; DH: 3.6; SP: 8.5; RP: 3.2 = 43.4

Not a 100% fair comparison as the old data is based on 'primary position' while this year is based on actual play at that position. Switch to primary position (guys get counted twice or more sometimes) and I get...

C: 6.8; 1B: 4.0; 2B: 5.1; 3B: 5.2; SS: 3.8; LF: 5.5; CF: 3.9; RF: 8.4; DH: 4.3; same for pitchers.

So RF almost catches 2011 but counts all of Springer & Barger even though both spent lots of time elsewhere, plus Lukes-Roden-Robertson-Santander (last 2 took a full 1.0 WAR off the total). Note the real total of 1.9 vs 'primary' of 8.4.

ZiPS has the 2026 Jays at...
C: 4.9; 1B: 4.2; 2B: 3.0; 3B: 3.1; SS: 3.4; LF: 2.3; CF: 3.5; RF: 2.1; DH: 2.3; SP: 12.9; RP: 3.9 = 45.6

Not bad. A straight comparison to how they really did in '25 puts them behind at C/2B/SS/LF/CF/DH but up at 1B-3B-RF-SP-RP. The overall score is actually projected higher for '26 than in '25. Huh. Of course, with injuries that can shift down quickly as someone always gets hurt, or becomes ineffective.
Michael - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 07:47 PM EST (#474960) #
I don't know if it is true this year or how you calculated the ZiPS but in the past they didn't tone down the playing time so if you add up the ZiPS for any team the total will be higher because all the players are assumed to play.
June Northey - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 08:10 PM EST (#474961) #
The ZiPs was based on the position chart he puts on the page. Look there and you see Varsho's name large type, Straw small type in CF meaning Varsho gets the bulk of the time/credit for WAR at that position. In RF 4 names about the same size split it (Barger a bit bigger, then Springer-Santander-Lukes). Full details at FG Depth Charts for playing time - but they use a different WAR estimator so the figures don't match.

FYI: FGDC WAR by position for the Jays for '26 from the page mentioned above...
C: 5.3; 1B: 5.1; 2B: 2.5; 3B: 3.5; SS: 2.8; LF: 1.9; CF: 2.2; RF: 2.6; DH: 2.1; SP: 15.0; RP: 3.5;
Total: 46.5 which puts the Jays in 4th place in the majors, Dodgers #1: 54.4, NYY: 47.7; NYM: 46.8; Jays; Atlanta; Seattle; Boston; Philly; Baltimore 43.1. Yeah, the AL East is a beast. Rays waaaay down at 37.0, but the ugly is the Rockies at 19.4 - the Dodgers pitchers are forecast to have more WAR than the entire Rockies team, Jays staff also in eyeshot. Hmmm... wonder if the Rockies might be interested in one of our salary dumps (Santander or Berrios) - lord knows they could use any help they can find.
ayjackson - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 09:34 PM EST (#474962) #
Interesting thread, but all I am left to ponder is what great world cities Bo has had the opportunity to visit during his lifetime. Especially during the Spring, Summer and Fall. Surely spent all the atime in American baseball towns.

uglyone - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 10:03 PM EST (#474963) #
"I don't know if it is true this year or how you calculated the ZiPS but in the past they didn't tone down the playing time so if you add up the ZiPS for any team the total will be higher because all the players are assumed to play."


ah, the beauty of war/650pa!
June Northey - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 11:14 PM EST (#474964) #
The top 100 prospects via MLB.com is out. Jays are #12 Yesavage, #45 JoJo Parker, and #77 Arjun Nimmala. Seems odd to have Nimmala behind Parker at this point as Parker hasn't swung a bat as a pro yet but we'll see. Fingers crossed both climb the rankings quickly. Orioles have 3 (8-69-93), Rays have 3 (63-76-85), Red Sox 4 (19-31-56-84), Yankees 4 (32-79-82-94). So only the O's have a better prospect than Yesavage, while the Sox and NYY have 1 more prospect each than the Jays do on the top 100.

What does it all mean? Impossible to say really. But it is better to have one or two top quarter ones (top 25) than to have a ton of bottom quarter ones (76-100). Jays having 1 in each of the top 2 quarters is good. Sox have 1 in each quarter (very good), O's having a top 10 is nice for them.

Weird they have 2 RHP ahead of Yesavage after that playoff he had. Nolan McLean (Mets - did very well for them in the majors last year 2.06 ERA over 48 IP with 57 K's), and Bubba Chandler (Pittsburgh - 4.02 ERA in the majors over 31 1/3 IP 4 BB 31 K's). Weird. I can see a case on the surface but, I mean 5+ no hit innings vs the NYY in the ALDS, 3.58 ERA in the playoffs overall over 27 2/3 IP with 39 K's - that is legendary.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 23 2026 @ 11:53 PM EST (#474965) #
Pitch tracking machine wasn't available for Yeaavage during the playoffs. Once the best major leaguers get to face home 100x before they actually face him the results will likely change.
scottt - Saturday, January 24 2026 @ 05:43 AM EST (#474966) #
Basallo has struggled in MLB so far.
Only the bat speed and pop up time have been better than average.
Chuck - Saturday, January 24 2026 @ 09:38 AM EST (#474967) #
Tony Batista was such a fun player his first 2 years here

Some Batista hijinx in Japan after an HBP.

BlueMonday - Saturday, January 24 2026 @ 01:26 PM EST (#474968) #
I remember being so excited when the Jays acquired Tony Batista. I had seen him before that on a baseball road trip in Cincinnati. My first thought was “who is this guy with the goofy batting stance, almost facing the pitcher. There’s no way that’ll ever work.” And his first at bat he launched a home run into the old Riverfront stadium outfield.
June Northey - Saturday, January 24 2026 @ 01:34 PM EST (#474969) #
Thanks for that video Chuck. Priceless.
June Northey - Saturday, January 24 2026 @ 05:58 PM EST (#474970) #
Was thinking about who might be about to go over a cliff thus be willing to do trades - What about Atlanta? After 7 straight playoff appearances (inc a WS win in the middle) they fell sub 500 last year, 20 games out. Their division is a killer with the Mets & Phillies spending like there is no tomorrow. Might be time for them to rejig things a bit. Wonder if Ozzie Albies, a switch hitting 2B, might be available? He is super-cheap at $7 mil this year and next (team options) with a 106 lifetime OPS+ but just an 89 last year. Despite that low OPS+ he still was a 2.1 bWAR player but just a 1.3 fWAR thanks to a -3 DRS and -4 OAA. Last year he hit lefties better than righties, same for his career so maybe he isn't a fit. Ah well. Was worth digging into. Also, don't bother with Acuna Jr. At just $17 mil per year for 3 more years (2 team options at that) he ain't available for what the Jays have (maybe if you mix in Yesavage plus a few others they wouldn't laugh at a request, but still probably wouldn't take it). I can only imagine what Acuna is dreaming of in the winter of 2030/31. More interesting would be the LH relievers they have - Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer. Neither are 'wow' but both would be solid middle/setup guys. Well, Lee is a wow with sub 2 BB/9 vs 10 K/9 last year.

Hard to think of who the Jays could trade for either now or mid-season. Come the end of April we'll have a much better view on how the Jays are doing and how the other clubs are doing which will lead to potential trades/call ups.
scottt - Saturday, January 24 2026 @ 07:37 PM EST (#474971) #
I'm sure Profar is available.
June Northey - Saturday, January 24 2026 @ 10:52 PM EST (#474972) #
scottt - I was surprised when I checked Profar's splits - almost dead even OPS both lifetime and in 2025. His 121 OPS+ last year would look nice in the lineup somewhere. $15 mil this year and next. But limited to LF/1B at this point. Last time he played more than 1 inning at 2B was 2021, 3B 2018, CF 2021, RF 2023, SS 2018. So while he was able to play all over he hasn't done so in years. So he'd be a guy we'd go after if Santander flops or Springer does (thus opening one of LF/DH) or if Barger fails, thus moving Santander to RF and opening LF (initially for Lukes/Schneider).

Honestly, outside of major injuries/ineffectiveness I can't see it happening. But he was interesting to check out. If Atlanta falls apart he'd be a good one for them to trade somewhere. The Jays also have to factor in that any additions they pay twice for. Right now the Jays are _just_ over the final threshold ($304 mil - they are at $304,194,604 according to Cot's). As a second time payor they will be charged 90% on any spending beyond $304 mil. The Dodgers as 3rd+ time will be hit at 110%. FG has the Jays at $310,590,764, it all depends on how one accounts for assorted things. In the end, unless the Jays fall out of it ala 2024 it won't matter to us. Just to Rogers. They showed a willingness to go way over for the right guy with that $35 per year offer to Tucker. Looking at highest AAV guys not many jump out at me. Maybe some from Houston could become available if they flop this year (8 straight playoffs, 9 of 10 since 2015 before missing in '25) as they are due to start dropping although I am shocked by how many sub 30's they have around despite that long contending period. Damn well run team.
scottt - Sunday, January 25 2026 @ 12:02 PM EST (#474973) #
The problem with Profar is his steroid splits.
Gerry - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 07:29 AM EST (#474974) #
Keith Law has published his top prospects.

Trey Yesavage #25
Jojo Parker #60
Arjun Nimmala #89
greenfrog - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 08:13 AM EST (#474975) #
Interesting that Law ranked Parker ahead of Nimmala (I mentioned the possibility of Parker surpassing Nimmala a couple of weeks ago in the Top 30 prospects thread).
scottt - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 09:37 AM EST (#474976) #
Batting left is a huge advantage for Parker.
He's not going to face a ton of sliders from lefties, so he should be making more contact than Nimmala.

Other than the hitting difference, there are very similar players with strong arms and average speed.

Parker was picked 8th overall and Nimmala 20th.
That will account for a lot of the rankings until they reach the upper minor leagues.


greenfrog - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 10:01 AM EST (#474977) #
I see them as two quite different players.

Parker is likely to end up at third base. He's "an outstanding hitter for contact" who "controls the strike zone well, has excellent hand-eye coordination, and takes a short path to the ball that ensures he'll put it in play at a high rate" (Law).

Nimmala is a true shortstop. He seems to be less of a contact hitter and more of a power-first hitter. Law writes that "if he hits enough to get to his power, his profile is 25-plus homers with plus defense at short."
mendocino - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 10:07 AM EST (#474978) #
Arjun Nimmala (BA) He’s an above-average defender at shortstop with a plus arm who looks likely to stick at the position.

JoJo Parker (BA) He lacks the quick-twitch mechanisms and range needed to play shortstop.

Juan Sanchez (BA) His lack of range and questionable actions likely mean a permanent move to third base in the future.

-----------------------
BA Breakout Prospects
Silvano Hechavarria, RHP
The Future: Hechavarria looks like a potential No. 5 starter but will need to prove his average stuff will play at the upper levels.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 60

Tim Piasentin, 3B
The Future: Piasentin is a high-upside corner infielder who could develop into an everyday regular with above-average power.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Field: 45 | Arm: 60

Jake Casey, OF
The Future: An underrated senior sign, Casey looks like he could develop into a second-division regular if his hit tool translates.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Field: 55 | Arm: 60
scottt - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 10:52 AM EST (#474979) #
If you have 2 shortstops--barring arm strength issues--the taller guy ends up at 3B.
Parker is 6'2" and Nimmala is 6'1", so the difference is pretty slim.
June Northey - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 11:14 AM EST (#474980) #
I find the low rankings for Yesavage funny - this is a guy who proved himself in the playoffs already, dominating the Yankees and doing fine vs the Dodgers and Mariners. Just 1 bad start out of 5 starts vs the best of the best. Yet somehow there are 24 players who are better prospects? Really? I think it is safe to say none of them will ever have 5+ no hit innings in a playoff start. Yesavage has already achieved more than most top 25 prospects ever do. Yeah, yeah, once people see him on that practice machine a few hundred times they'll do better. But what if they don't? Clearly pitchers adapt and thrive despite it (see any of the top starters in MLB) and he has Gausman, Bieber, and Cease to teach him how to deal with that successfully.

2026 will be interesting. I suspect many will rank Yesavage lower due to 'tricks' with his extremely high release point. I find it amazing he still hits the strike zone despite it. Bet hitters will hate when he leaves a game and Rogers comes in. Two super-extremes one after the other. It'll be fun to watch.
Mike Green - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 12:02 PM EST (#474981) #
Yesavage struck out 55 in 41.2 major league innings or 11.88 per 9 innings.  That's higher than any starter in MLB managed over the season.  And also consistent with his minor league K rates.  High K rates and good ERAs are what you look for statistically.  

He's 22.  Can he sharpen his control?  Seems like a reasonable possibility- it's not a huge issue for him, but it can help him adapt to changes made by hitters. Can he add a new pitch?  Maybe.  But if you're projecting how good he might be over the next few years, this isn't the main thing as far as I am concerned.  Yesavage threw 140 innings last year- his ability to bear 180-200 innings per year is a question mark, as it is for almost all young pitchers. And scouts may have an advantage in ascertaining whether a delivery is more or less likely to allow for that.  But there is a mystery to it that I don't think has been solved.  

Personally, I'd rather have Yesavage than any other pitching prospect in baseball, all things in.  
Gerry - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 12:04 PM EST (#474982) #
MLB Pipeline have Yesavage at #12, Parker at #45 and Nimmala at #77.
SK in NJ - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 12:19 PM EST (#474983) #
Putting 24 prospects ahead of Yesavage pretty much makes the list (Law's) worthless to me.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 01:25 PM EST (#474984) #
Nobody worried about Trajeckt Arc significantly ruining the advantage that Yesavage had in 2025? I for one don't think he dominates those line ups if they had hours to see and track his replicated pitches from the machine first.

2026 will level the playing field a bit and he will go from great to good.
uglyone - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 01:26 PM EST (#474985) #
Law likes his hate-clicks.
Hodgie - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 01:58 PM EST (#474986) #
"Nobody worried about Trajeckt Arc significantly ruining the advantage that Yesavage had in 2025?"

Not really. It might help hitters get more accustomed to his release point, but Trajeckt is not going to help hitters distinguish between his fastball and splitter - he does a great job of tunnelling the two pitches.

dalimon5 - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 03:57 PM EST (#474987) #
if Yesavage, Gausman and Rogers are 80% of the pitchers they were last year then this team will run away with the division. NYY still don't know which Rodon and Cole they are getting back. I've heard speculation Cole isn't hitting his usual velocity yet.

I also heard Ricky Tiedeman is back to 100% and will be ready by Spring.
Ryan Day - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 04:00 PM EST (#474988) #
People brought up Trajekt in the Yankees series, when Yesavage was a kinda-surprise starter and the Yankees didn't have access to Trajekt on the road. But Seattle and LA had plenty of time to study & simulate Yesavage; he dominated LA in game 5 even after they'd seen him in person 5 days before.
Mike Green - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 04:22 PM EST (#474989) #
As for Jo-Jo Parker and Arjun Nimmala,  I find ranking them pretty much impossible.  We have no performance data at all from Parker, and that will come soon enough.  As for Nimmala, everyone knows that his performance in Vancouver wasn't great.  However, it's interesting that his K rate was way down and his swinging strike rate was significantly lower, but his batted ball profile was much worse- line drive rate way down, ground ball rate way up, home run per fly ball way down.  Nimmala is young, with plenty of time to adjust and find his way to double A this year at the age of 21.  
greenfrog - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 07:26 PM EST (#474990) #
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say that there is no performance data for Parker. There is certainly an absence of performance data for him as a professional. Law noted that Parker is “an outstanding hitter for contact who barely swung and missed on the showcase circuit in 2024, when he was facing some of the best prep arms in the country.”

Law also mentioned that his Top 100 prospect ranking “is about future potential, about how I think these players and others will grow and develop over the next several years, how their skills and bodies will change over time for better or for worse. That means looking at their performance, at the underlying data, watching players live and on video, talking to scouts and analysts and more to try to come up with coherent projections for their near- and long-term outlooks.”
dalimon5 - Monday, January 26 2026 @ 07:35 PM EST (#474991) #
"People brought up Trajekt in the Yankees series, when Yesavage was a kinda-surprise starter and the Yankees didn't have access to Trajekt on the road. But Seattle and LA had plenty of time to study & simulate Yesavage; he dominated LA in game 5 even after they'd seen him in person 5 days before."

I read that when hitters use this system with the exact pitch imitations from all of the pitcher's previous starts they can literally practice hitting one pitch over and over again. You might see that pitch up to 10 times in 3 ABs against him. With Trajekt you could face that pitch 100x or more.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 10:24 AM EST (#474992) #
Ryan, to be clear, the Dodgers had Trajekt to use against Yesavage but they didn't have his profile ready. They were not able to simulate his pitches because there was not enough data for the AI to simulate. Therefore they did not have the advantage of using Trajekt against Yesavage.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 11:18 AM EST (#474993) #
According to Kike Hernandez, the Dodgers did have a Trajekt-Yesavage simulation, except the Trajekt can't physically replicate a release point as high as Yesavage (or coincidentally, as low as Tyler Rogers).

So they were able to approximate Yesavage, but not exactly, and the extent to which they'll be able to do so in the future is unclear.
Gerry - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 12:00 PM EST (#474994) #
Kiley McDaniel has his top 100 at ESPN.

Yesavage is #14, Parker #52, Nimmala #76 and Johnny King at #85.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 12:49 PM EST (#474995) #
Ryan, nice find! That's very interesting and raises my hopes that Yesavage may not fall off as much I thought he might have.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 12:51 PM EST (#474996) #
Top prospect lists are interesting. The chatter this winter was to look out for Gage Stanifer but he's not on any of these lists.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 01:14 PM EST (#474997) #
I'm fine with Yesavage being generally considered a Top-25 prospect. And let's remember that Tiedemann was also generally considered a top-25 prospect at ages 19-21 and only lost that status to injury. So that's two top-25 type talents.

Then the likes of Nimmala, Parker, King considered generally top-100 prospects but not yet top-50 prospects also works for me.

I'd argue that Stanifer has a very, very good case to be top-100 and it'll be very hard to keep him off if he picks up where he left off last year.

2 Top-25 type prospects and 4 other backend top-100 type prospects in my books.

And Sanchez has a chance to join those talks soon, too.
Nigel - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 01:21 PM EST (#474998) #
FWIW I think Nimmala has a swing decision issue rather than a strike zone control issue. What I saw over the summer was a player that fairly consistently swung at pitches with less than two strikes that he could do very little with. Then, it really looked like he started trying to hit everything 500 feet to make up for his struggles. All in all it led to a lot of weak contact. It wasn't pretty. He's very young for his level and I'd rather a young player have swing decision issues than strike zone control issues but there's enough red flags there that his future could go either way.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 01:32 PM EST (#474999) #
Keith Law recently mentioned that Nimmala was hurt in the 2nd half of 2025. Exact quote when asked if we should be worried about Nimmala's performance: "No. He played through some injuries last year, and when healthy was among the best hitters in his league."

Not sure how true that is since I haven't heard anyone else mention it (or I missed it), but that would certainly explain his incredible start followed by equally incredible slump. Regardless, he was 19 in A+ last season. I wouldn't write him off. If he can stick at SS, which it appears he can based on reports, then they should be patient with him. I do wonder if Rogers is even aware of Nimmala. If Arjun becomes even a Paul DeJong level starting SS, then I would imagine Rogers could easily monetize off that. The Indian market is massive, and hasn't been tapped in MLB before. Would be pretty cool to see it happen.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 01:41 PM EST (#475000) #
Aaron Sanchez has signed a minor league deal with the Royals after a good showing in the Dominican Winter League, per Mlbtr.
Glevin - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 01:57 PM EST (#475001) #
Prospect rankings don't mean much and aren't, IMO, very good ways to think of prospects. Tiers or grades are much better. For example, you look at Kylie's list today and here are the tiers.
1
2-14
15-45
46-probably like 150.

So one list might have Yesavage 11 and another 22 but that really isn't different. Especially as you move down lists, the differences are basically not there. The difference between prospect 50 and prospect 100 is nothing. For the Jays list for example, I have the following tiers:

1) Yesavage: Already an impact major leaguer
2) Nimmala, Parker, Sanchez, Tiedemann, King, Stanifer: High upside guys either hurt or (mostly) not close to majors
3) Cook, Bloss, Schreck, Arias: Lower upside guys or more flawed
4: About 15 other guys with more question marks.

soupman - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 03:03 PM EST (#475002) #
I was going to post some of the old prospect reports on Max Scherzer. When he came up, he was one of those guys I always heard scouts down on. This probably made the rounds here last year, but there was a fangraphs interview with Max going over on particular BA report, but has a lot of his reflections on how the D-Backs handled him. It reflects poorly on the organization at the time, but also gives some insight into the degree of ego and confidence that even top prospects out of college probably need to have to make it to the show.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-addresses-his-2008-baseball-america-scouting-report/

All that to say: I agree that outside of the odd can't miss prospect (who do sometimes still miss (usually because of: injury, drugs, doping), prospect rankings seem to do more harm than good. Jose Bautista was the Pirates...the PIRATES...#12 prospect in 2005, for example. Like many things, they're a snapshot in time. There's so much context (Max talks about a hand injury) that is missed, and I enjoy reading the details about players, but rarely see the ranking itself as written in stone or a destiny.

PS: Why am I forgetting how the UBB code works? I tried putting the link both in the box and naming it, and tried just linking to the URL...what's the correct way?
mendocino - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 04:55 PM EST (#475003) #
Scouting the Blue Jays' latest international free agent class
Shi Davidi

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/scouting-the-blue-jays-latest-international-free-agent-class/

Alieski Torres, RHP, Cuba ($200,000)

The 18-year-old is six-foot-five, 240 pounds, and while Tinnish knows it’s “going to sound crazy,” Torres reminds him of Trey Yesavage at 18. “It's less crazy when you look at the pattern,” he continues. “When Trey was 18, he was different and (Torres) has a fairly similar fastball shape, less spin. Trey wasn't at a seven-(foot)-one release height then. He was like six-(foot)-six, with some carry and kind of a narrower shape to it. Torres is very similar. Similar carry. Similar in that it's narrow, not a lot of tail, not horizontal, same release height, similar short extension, similar velo, similar spin efficiency, things like that. That Trey fastball didn't model great, but it's more the point that Torres can get high and come off a cliff and maybe create an uncomfortable at-bat and maybe that can like climb even more as he moves forward.”
June Northey - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 07:23 PM EST (#475004) #
Prospect talk is always fun. Especially looking back and going 'whaaaa?'

IMO the biggest miss by MLB was Mike Piazza - a massive power hitter who could've made it at any position but was a catcher (very good framer, bad thrower) and only drafted as a favor to a friend by the LAD - he was the godson of their manager. 62nd round pick in 1988, reached the majors in 1992, All-Star, Silver Slugger, ROY, top 10 MVP in '93. His only slowdown in the minors was repeating A+ after a 670 OPS year one. For a 62nd round pick to climb that fast and be that good right away is insane.

IFA are harder to know as we don't have a lot of data on how big their bonus' were but I'd say it is safe to say Kirk is one of the best bargains at sub $50k for his bonus (conflicting reports) for a guy who so far is an 11.3 bWAR player, 2 time All-Star, Silver Slugger, 846 OPS in the playoffs so far. If he hadn't signed that extension he'd have been a free agent post 2026. Phew.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 27 2026 @ 09:48 PM EST (#475005) #
The summer trade deadline this year will be Monday, Aug 3 at 6pm ET, per MLB.
June Northey - Wednesday, January 28 2026 @ 01:26 AM EST (#475006) #
Interesting. The Jays last 6 before the deadline are facing NL teams (Washington & St Louis). Immediately after it is a very hard stretch - Houston, Philly, Boston, NYY, Tampa, NYY. Crazy hard 19 game stretch.
scottt - Wednesday, January 28 2026 @ 07:55 AM EST (#475007) #
Framber Valdez still not signed.
Nobody seems willing to overlook his incident with his catcher.

Pitchers and catchers are reporting in 12 days.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, January 28 2026 @ 09:24 AM EST (#475008) #
To return to the them of Blue Jays Shortstops, in 1994 BA ranked Alex Gonzalez the 4th-best prospect in baseball - ahead of Carlos Delgado, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Derek Jeter (who was ranked 16th!).
Glevin - Wednesday, January 28 2026 @ 12:06 PM EST (#475009) #
I don't understand moving the deadline. Isn't it always July 31st? I think it should probably be a week or two later going forward with how much parity there is in baseball and therefore how many teams are in holding patterns at that time.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 28 2026 @ 12:26 PM EST (#475010) #
Johny King made Keith Law’s “just missed the top 100” prospect list.

He seems like someone who could get moved (with great reluctance) if the Blue Jays need to make an impact trade between now and Aug 3 at 6pm.

Maldoff - Wednesday, January 28 2026 @ 12:40 PM EST (#475011) #
McDaniel's "Just Missed" list included: Ricky T (151) and Sam Shaw (167).
Michael - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 05:13 AM EST (#475012) #
"I don't understand moving the deadline. Isn't it always July 31st?"

The flexible deadline is a feature of the 2022 collective bargaining agreement. Under previous CBAs, there was a fixed July 31 deadline. MLB now has the freedom to set the deadline on any date between July 28 and August 3.

MLB prefers to have the deadline on weekdays. They set the cutoff in the evening so there are no ongoing games. That reduces the chances of a player being traded mid-game and "hug watch" scenarios. MLB has at least one day game scheduled for each of July 29-31 of the preceding week.

This is the first time that MLB has chosen the latest available date.

From https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/mlb-sets-august-3-trade-deadline-for-2026-season.html
Gerry - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 08:06 AM EST (#475013) #
Keith Law ranks the Blue Jays system at #25, noting they traded pitchers for the stretch drive and they lost a draft pick for signing Santander.
bpoz - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 08:54 AM EST (#475014) #
Thanks Gerry. #25 is ok by me. Losing Kendry Rios, Watts-Brown and Kal Stephen all would have been in my top 15 and all are close to the the Majors. Yesavage is still a prospect but only needs 10 innings to reach 50. So I sort of discount him.
Glevin - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 09:42 AM EST (#475015) #
#25 doesn't mean much to me. Jays have 7 very interesting prospects and a few other guys who could join that list. There is a mix of close to the majors and guys pretty far away. I like the system. I was looking at the 2021 MLB prospect list if you want to see how these things can go badly. Jays had 4 top-100 prospects. Pearson #10, Martin #22, Groshans #46, and Wood Richardson #86. Not on top-100 were Kirk, Moreno, and Manoah.
Glevin - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 09:50 AM EST (#475016) #
Nice article on Athletic about Jake Cook one of the most interesting Jays prospects. He has tools to be a speed and defense guy which would make him very valuable as is but he's trying to add more power to his game.
uglyone - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 10:50 AM EST (#475017) #
eh, ranking the system 25th just seems silly, and the usual trolling on Law's part. yeah online jays fans are great for click harvesting, and yes jays prospects get less attention than many other orgs so it's easier to play these types of games with.

Law has 1 jays prospect in his top 30, 2 in his top 60, 3 in his top 90, and 4 in his top 120. By his own rankings, the top of the system is pretty much exactly bang on average.

Dropping the system all the way down to 25th would mean he's saying that the depth in the system is legit terrible - and just looking at it it's clear that that's not true at all, even before factoring in that that the org has had consistent success in getting mlb value out of non-elite non-top-100 type prospects in recent years.



And of course all the other individual prospects rankings were higher on the jays prospects than the Law rankings which had them as perfectly average per ranking.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 11:13 AM EST (#475018) #
How many prospects drafted or otherwise acquired by the current FO have the Blue Jays developed into good MLB players? Not many. The org seems to be more on track these days, but we don’t really know yet.

The Latin American IFAs acquired by the FO have not worked out (so far — Sanchez looks promising).
mendocino - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 12:05 PM EST (#475019) #
don't expect a high ranking when your top prospects haven't played above A ball. Trades hurt the system but that's the cost of winning.
uglyone - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 01:16 PM EST (#475020) #
what if your top prospect just dominated the world series, tho?
greenfrog - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 01:29 PM EST (#475021) #
We all love Yesavage, but his stellar 2025 performance doesn’t automatically make the farm system a strong one. Anyway, should he even still be considered a prospect? Technically, maybe, but he has already graduated and the farm system looks a lot weaker without him.
metafour - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 01:42 PM EST (#475022) #
Yesavage is absolutely still qualified as a "prospect". He is factoring into the rankings.

Also, Kiley McDaniel just released his team rankings and he has the Jays at #16. So Law's ranking isn't exactly unanimous, and as mentioned by Ugly, having ~4 Top 100 prospects on top of clearly not-awful "depth" behind them would seemingly line up more accurately where McDaniel has the system at, and not as "one of the worst systems in baseball".
greenfrog - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 01:53 PM EST (#475023) #
Sure, he still counts, but if we’re being real and looking at future talent that could bolster the MLB roster — which now includes Yesavage — then we’re necessarily looking at other prospects in the system. And most of the very best prospects in the system, like Nimmala and Parker and Sanchez and King — are a long way from the majors.
uglyone - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 02:09 PM EST (#475024) #
I mean i was responding to a claim that "top prospects in A-Ball" is a reason to downgrade a system. Except our consensus #1 prospect literally just dominated the world series, so the opposite should apply, no?
Nigel - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 02:43 PM EST (#475025) #
I’m a bit more optimistic about the system than say #25 implies but I don’t think that’s a crazy take. Most of the interesting guys either have an injury history or have very little (or no) pro data to guide us. There’s very little at high A or better to get too excited about.
mathesond - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 03:08 PM EST (#475026) #
Has anyone here done an in-depth study of the 24 franchises Law has ranked higher than Toronto to see which ones the Jays should outrank?
mathesond - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 03:08 PM EST (#475027) #
Has anyone here done an in-depth study of the 24 franchises Law has ranked higher than Toronto to see which ones the Jays should outrank?
Glevin - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 03:22 PM EST (#475028) #
Fangraphs just released their projected standings based on ZIPS. AL EAST:
Jays 90-72
Red Sox 90-72
Orioles 88-74
Yankees 87-75

That's 4 teams essentially tied. Insane division, easily the best in baseball.
uglyone - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 03:55 PM EST (#475029) #
ah thanks Glevin - just noticed that Zips are finally fully updated on fangraphs, which means that we now have the full Fangraphs Depth Chart projections based on both Zips and Steamer:

Top-5 Teams by projected WAR:

1. LAD: 57.1war (35.8bat / 21.3pit)
2. TOR: 48.0war (30.6bat / 17.4pit)
3. NYY: 47.6war (30.7bat / 16.9pit)
4. NYM: 47.5war (31.9bat / 15.6pit)
5. ATL: 47.2war (28.9bat / 18.4pit)

and then there's a bit of a drop down to the next group with SEA 45.7, PHI 45.6, BOS 45.6, BAL 45.0
greenfrog - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 04:14 PM EST (#475030) #
You can see why the Dodgers wanted Tucker so badly. If the Blue Jays had signed him instead, the two teams would have had about the same projected WAR totals for 2026. By adding Tucker, LA remains in the pole position (where they feel entitled to be) by a large margin.
uglyone - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 04:17 PM EST (#475031) #
And our team by the Combined Depth Chart Projections:

(Player Order selected by yours truly, in my infinite wisdom)


1. DH Springer (36): 595pa, .343obp, .191iso, 122wrc+, 2.8war/650
2. 3B Okamoto (30): 560pa, .330obp, .204iso, 117wrc+, 3.4war/650
3. 1B Guerrero (27): 679pa, .380obp, .228iso, 149wrc+, 4.7war/650
4. C Alejandro (27): 488pa, .350obp, .150iso, 117wrc+, 6.5war/650
5. RF Barger (26): 483pa, .316obp, .194iso, 110wrc+, 2.4war/650
6. LF Santander (31): 567pa, .309obp, .215iso, 109wrc+, 1.6war/650
7. CF Varsho (29): 595pa, .292obp, .218iso, 103wrc+, 2.9war/650
8. 2B Clement (30): 644pa, .307obp, .127iso, 96wrc+, 2.6war/650
9. SS Gimenez (27): 595pa, .313obp, .129iso, 95wrc+, 3.1war/650

B. IF Schneider (27): 294pa, .329obp, .187iso, 109wrc+, 2.9war/650
B. OF Lukes (31): 322pa, .334obp, .135iso, 108wrc+, 2.8war/650
B. C Heineman (35): 154pa, .309obp, .104iso, 83wrc+, 3.4war/650
B. OF Straw (32): 133pa, .295obp, .084iso, 74wrc+, 1.0war/650

X. OF Schreck (25): 1pa, .323obp, .170iso, 102wrc+,
X. IF Jimenez (25): 77pa, .329obp, .123iso, 93wrc+, 1.7war/650
X. OF Loperfido (27): 28pa, .300obp, .152iso, 92wrc+,
X. C Valenzuela (25): 13pa, .273obp, .126iso, 68wrc+,





1. RH Cease (30): 32gms, 5.7ip/gm, 3.61era, 3.56fip, 3.6war/32
2. RH Bieber (31): 24gms, 5.8ip/gm, 3.77era, 3.75fip, 3.0war/32
3. RH Gausman (35): 31gms, 5.9ip/gm, 3.91era, 3.86fip, 2.8war/32
4. RH Yesavage (22): 34gms, 3.8ip/gm, 3.84era, 3.83fip, 1.7war/32
5. RH Ponce (32): 44gms, 3.4ip/gm, 4.09era, 3.99fip, 1.3war/32

X. RH Berrios (32): 47gms, 2.9ip/gm, 4.44era, 4.57fip, 0.6war/32
X. LH Tiedemann (23): 19gms, 2.0ip/gm, 4.32era, 4.42fip, 0.3war/32


1. RH Hoffman (33): 63gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.42era, 3.61fip, 1.0war/65
2. RH Varland (28): 67gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.55era, 3.60fip, 0.5war/65
3. RH Rogers (35): 74gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.89era, 4.05fip, 0.3war/65
4. LH Little (29): 54gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.59era, 3.86fip, 0.2war/65
5. RH Fisher (25): 52gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.88era, 3.98fip, 0.1war/65
6. LH Lauer (31): 50gms, 1.1ip/gm, 4.16era, 4.34fip, 0.1war/65
7. LH Fluharty (24): 42gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.97era, 4.14fip, 0.0war/65

X. RH Garcia (35): 60gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.85era, 3.84fip, 0.5war/65
X. RH Nance (35): 58gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.82era, 3.83fip, 0.3war/65
X. RH Rodriguez (29): 36gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.12era, 4.34fip, 0.0war/65
X. RH Lee (27): 25gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.92era, 3.98fip, 0.0war/65
X. RH Miles (25): 20gms, 1.0ip/gm, 4.20era, 4.07fip, 0.0war/65

dalimon5 - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 04:59 PM EST (#475032) #
Law has always had either a conflict of interest or biased opinion of the Toronto system as an employee and former employee. I wouldn't put much stock into his analysis if you aren't also willing to give the same weight and credibility to JP Ricciardi since he was his assistant.
Ryan Day - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 05:11 PM EST (#475033) #
For reference, Fangraphs' projected standings for 2025:

Orioles: 88-74 (off by 13 wins)
Red Sox: 87-75 (very close!)
Yankees: 87-75 (off by 7 wins)
Jays: 83-79 (off by 11 wins)
Rays: 82-80 (off by 5 wins)
greenfrog - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 05:16 PM EST (#475034) #
Law’s writeup is actually very complimentary toward the Blue Jays. He notes that “in fairness, they nearly won the World Series, and traded a lot of prospects to get there” and they “nailed their first pick last year, prep shortstop JoJo Parker.” He also lauds the Blue Jays for spending money in an effort to win, and suggests that, in any event, winning the pennant is more important than winning the annual prospect rankings.

I think the “biased against the Blue Jays” claim is a lazy and meritless criticism of Law.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 05:24 PM EST (#475035) #
I can argue it's just as meritless to judge someone's character from their latest article while ignoring a long history, greenfrog.

Sure you can call me lazy but then you sure as heck better apply that same label to Law who lazily down-rated the Blue Jays for the better part of two decades since he was let go. He waited two decades until his previous owner started to spend money (which enver happened under his time there) and then start to give a less biased opinion... not suspect at all.

Not sure if you've ever listened to him speak (in person or on air) but it sure doesn't sound like it. His TSN hits were basically smear campaigns against Rogers during AA's entire tenure and most of Shapiro's. So... take the whole picture before throwing daggers like calling me lazy, please.

Law has also openly spoke against Rogers due to his bad split, along with other former employees including Richard Griffin, Mike Wilner and Mal Romanin.
uglyone - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 05:28 PM EST (#475036) #
TOR v NYY

1B Guerrero (27) 149wrc+, 4.7war650 --- LF Judge (34) 173wrc+, 7.4war650
DH Springer (36) 122wrc+, 2.8war650 --- 1B Rice (27) 123wrc+, 2.9war650
3B Okamoto (30) 117wrc+, 3.4war650 ---- RF Bellinger (30) 115wrc+, 3.4war650
C Alejandro (27) 117wrc+, 6.5war650 --- 2B Chisholm (28) 112wrc+, 3.3war650
RF Barger (26) 110wrc+, 2.4war650 ----- CF Grisham (29) 110wrc+, 3.3war650
LF Santander (31) 109wrc+, 1.6war650 -- DH Stanton (36) 111wrc+, 1.3war650
CF Varsho (29) 103wrc+, 2.9war650 ----- C Wells (26) 100wrc+, 4.6war650
2B Clement (30) 96wrc+, 2.6war650 ----- 3B McMahon (31) 91wrc+, 2.2war659
SS Gimenez (27) 95wrwc+, 3.1war650 ---- SS Volpe (25) 92wrc+, 2.7war650

IF Schneider (27) 109wrc+, 2.9war650 -- OF Dominguez (23) 106wrc+, 1.9war650
OF Lukes (31) 108wrc+, 2.8war650 ------ IF Rosario (30) 90wrc+, 1.3war650
C Heineman (35) 83wrc+, 3.4war650 ----- C Escarra (31) 93wrc+, 2.8war650
OF Straw (32) 74wrc+, 1.0war650 ------- IF Caballero (29) 87wrc+, 1.9war650

IF Jimenez (25) 93wrc+, 1.7war650 ----- IF Cabrera (27) 90wrc+, 1.0war650
OF Schreck (25) 101wrc+, xxxwar650 ---- OF Jones (25) 95wrc+, xxxwar650
OF Loperfido (27) 92wrc+, xxxwar650 --- IF DeJong (32) 75wrc+, 0.9war650
C Valenzuela (25) 68wrc+, xxxwar650 --- IF Vivas (25) 84wrc+, xxxwar650




For pitchers i'll try averageing ERA with FIP.


RH Cease (30) 5.7ip/gm, 3.59avg ------- LH Fried (32) 6.1ip/gm, 3.39avg
RH Bieber (31) 5.8ip/gm, 3.76avg ------ LH Rodon (33) 5.5ip/gm, 4.01avg
RH Gausman (35) 5.9ip/gm, 3.89avg ----- RH Cole (35) 5.9ip/gm, 3.99avg
RH Yesavage (22) 3.8ip/gm, 3.84avg ---- RH Schlittler (25) 5.2ip/gm, 4.10avg
RH Ponce (32) 3.4ip/gm, 4.04avg ------- LH Weathers (26) 3.0ip/gm, 4.17avg

RH Berrios (32) 2.9ip/gm, 4.51avg ----- RH Warren (27) 2.9ip/gm, 4.20avg
LH Tiedemann (23) 2.0ip/gm, 4.37avg --- RH Gil (28) 1.9ip/gm, 4.47avg
LH Lauer (31) 1.1ip/gm, 4.25avg ------- LH Yarbrough (34) 1.2ip/gm, 4.53avg
RH Francis (30) 1.2ip/gm, 4.52avg ----- RH Blackburn (32) 1.1ip/gm, 4.41avg



RH Hoffman (33) 1.0ip/gm, 3.52avg ----- RH Bednar (31) 1.0ip/gm, 3.26avg
RH Varland (28) 1.0ip/gm, 3.57avg ----- RH Doval (28) 1.0ip/gm, 3.54avg
RH Rogers (35) 1.0ip/gm, 3.97avg ------ RH Cruz (36) 1.0ip/gm, 3.41avg
LH Little (29) 1.0ip/gm, 3.73avg ------ RH Bird (30) 1.0ip/gm, 3.94avg
RH Nance (35) 1.0ip/gm, 3.83avg ------- LH Headrick (28) 1.0ipgm, 4.04avg
RH Garcia (35) 1.0ip/gm, 3.85avg ------ RH Schmidt (30) 1.9ip/gm, 4.05avg
RH Fisher (25) 1.0ip/gm, 3.93avg ------ RH Santos (28) 1.0ip, 4.09avg
LH Fluharty (24) 1.0ip/gm, 4.06avg ---- LH Hill (36) 1.0ip/gm, 4.24avg

RH Rodriguez (29) 1.0ip/gm, 4.23avg --- RH Rodriguez (22) 1.0ip/gm, 4.14avg
RH Lee (27) 1.0ip/gm, 3.95avg --------- RH Castro (27) 1.0ip/gm, 4.45avg
RH Miles (25) 1.0ip/gm, 4.14avg ------- RH Chivilli (23) 1.0ip/gm, 4.49avg

dalimon5 - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 05:47 PM EST (#475037) #
It really is too bad that the Dodgers went mad and signed Tucker as it would have been a nice story to see the Jays and Dodgers as two titans in baseball as close to destined as possible to meet for a re-match.
June Northey - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 05:49 PM EST (#475038) #
The 'winning the prospect battle' is a good point.

In 1993 the Jays were ranked #1 for organizational rankings (basically how good your minors were) by BA. They won it all that year, then flopped for decades. 3rd in '94, 3rd in '95, etc. 2013 they were 15th, same in '14, 10th in '15, no rankings after that listed at BR. Ah well. I remember in the 80's the Brewers were seen as having amazing prospects year in year out, but they didn't make the playoffs for a loooong time (well after all those great prospects were long gone). Leading on those lists is nice, but doesn't really mean much. You need to get the players, then develop them and/or have good luck.
Michael - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 06:33 PM EST (#475039) #
It is a bit crazy that the gap from the Jays in #2 to the Orioles in #9 is just 3 WAR compared to the 9.1 WAR between LAD at #1 and Jays at #2. More than 3 times the gap! Where does the same gap below the Jays put you in the team rankings (38.9 WAR IIRC)?

Even with Tucker, not sure the Jays catch LAD from this list as Tucker wouldn't be moving from 0 on either side, the LAD replacing him would likely still be some 2ish WAR player, and the player he'd be replacing on the Jays would be some 2ish or 3ish WAR player, so likely this would swing more like 5-6 war not fully swing the 9.1 gap.
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 06:38 PM EST (#475040) #
A lot of the Jays top prospects are very young, lower in the minors, and/or have no pro data yet (Nimmala, Parker, Sanchez, King, Cook, etc). Even Stanifer only had 2 starts above A+. I'd probably lean towards middle of the pack as well, but I can see the hesitation in going too high. A year from now as those players get pro data and rise up the minors, then that's where we might see the system valued more highly across the board.
scottt - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 06:55 PM EST (#475041) #
Toronto had over 28 million visitors last year which injected over 9 billion in direct spending.

Go Jays!

Yeasavage only played 7 games last year. He's certainly a prospect.
I don't see the difference between him and a guy whom a team would keep in AAA to avoid the Super 2 status.
I figure Cody Ponce is higher risk than him.

They currently have a couple of highly ranked rule 5 pitchers.
They could be returned or they could be contributors.
That's the highest variance possible on prospects in my book.

System rankings seems to put a lot of value on the number of 40+/45+ prospects.
That's very subjective. A 45 prospect is not supposed to be a difference maker.
It's supposed to be a below average player.
You just enough of these guys to make necessary trades.
2 years ago, the Jays acquired a load of these guys at the deadline.
How much did they actually contribute last year?
Wagner -0.5 WAR. Clase -0,2 WAR. Loperfido 0.6 WAR.
I think that's it.
metafour - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 07:51 PM EST (#475042) #
"Sure, he still counts, but if we’re being real and looking at future talent that could bolster the MLB roster — which now includes Yesavage — then we’re necessarily looking at other prospects in the system. And most of the very best prospects in the system, like Nimmala and Parker and Sanchez and King — are a long way from the majors."

But the leaguewide rankings are compiled by looking at the FV of each prospect in each system, and then comparing them and slotting teams against each other. There is also generally priority given towards "impact" prospects, so having 5-6 Top 100 prospects is generally going to lead to a higher team ranking than having 2-3 Top 100 prospects but with more "depth" in the system. The whole argument here is whether Law's #25 system ranking lines up with how he rates the individual pieces in the system, and there seems to be some ambiguity there.

For example, he ranks the Cubs at #18 and a full tier above the Jays, and on his Top 100 they possess #41 (Alcantara), #47 (Ballesteros), and #79 (Rojas). The Jays by comparison possess #25 (Yesavage), #60 (Parker), and #89 (Nimmala). So comparing the Top 100 prospects, we see fairly similar data. The Cubs' #2 and #3 guys are marginally higher than the Jays' #2 and #3 guys, but Yesavage is the clear cut best prospect out of all of the players between the two teams. Ok, so naturally we should then conclude that the Cubs rank 7 spots higher because the rest of their system must be stronger (ie: prospects not ranked in the Top 100). But look at his writeup for the Cubs:

"The Cubs graduated two top 100 prospects last year, then traded two guys off their top 10 this January for Edward Cabrera, so they’re down a little bit, and what’s left now is mostly hitting, with eight hitters in their top 10 and nobody who’s a dead-lock to be a major-league starter. (I do like Jaxon Wiggins, but there’s real reliever risk there.) They draft off the model, and most models will steer you towards a position player since they are more valuable with today’s usage patterns. They’re still in this tier because they have four-to-five players with substantial upside atop their system; after that it’s a lot of role player and extra guy types."

So his writeup basically says that the Cubs have those 3 Top 100 guys, plus 1-2 other guys with upside who rank outside his Top 100, but apart from that they don't have much in the system beyond that. When you look at the Jays he has 3 players ranked in the Top 100, and we know that Johnny King just missed his Top 100...so there is 4 players there, plus you have former Top 100 guys like Tiedmann and Bloss who are hanging around that range and only dropped due to injury, and Stanifer who must be in the ~Top 150 range himself. No matter how you look at it, his individual player rankings and writeups of the Cubs' and Jays' systems are very similar...and yet one ranks 7 spots higher. He even repeats the same talking point in both writeups: both teams traded away a few Top 10 prospects at the last trade deadline.

Now, when you look at his writeup for why he has the Jays so low, the talking points come off as very over-exaggerated. He says that they traded "a lot" of prospects to get to the World Series, but really it was just Rojas and Khal Stephen. Roden was an arrow-down prospect who looked terrible in his MLB sample, and while Juaron Watts-Brown took a step forward, none of the prospect lists ranked him as a "top prospect", Keith Law included. Next, he claims that they traded "nearly all of their top pitching prospects after Trey Yesavage", but again, it was just 2. They still have Stanifer, on top of Tiedemann and Bloss who are in the upper-minors and both of whom are easy candidates to end up back in the Top 100. Finally, he goes on about the lost draft pick for signing Santander, and having the 1str round pick in 2026 knocked down 10-spots, but surely this isn't going to explain the reason why he says very similar things about the Cubs, but yet ranks them 7 spots higher. Are we going to argue that the 2nd round pick in 2025 would have shot our system up into the teens had we not lost it LOL?

Also, I don't buy the argument that he must have ranked us so low because we have a few young players in A-ball and below as top prospects. This is the case for nearly every other team as well. Its not like every other team ranked above the Jays has all of their best prospects in AA and AAA. Furthermore, its also not even objectively true that all of Toronto's best prospects have barely any data or are incredibly far away. As mentioned, Yesavage is in the MLB rotation, Standifer is an AA, and Bloss and Tiedemann are ~AAA pitchers. Past that you have a guys like RJ Schreck and Victor Arias who are in AAA and AA respectively. These two aren't "top prospects", but they are both Top 10 prospects in the system with legit ability/production. 5-6 of the Jays' Top 10 is currently in AA or above.

June Northey - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 07:59 PM EST (#475043) #
Traded for prospects don't always produce year one. In fact, I'd bet most don't for a few years. In '24 the Jays big trades brought in ....
  • June: Braydon Fisher for Biggio
  • July:
    • Jacob Sharp (minors) and Jonatan Clase for Garcia
    • Gilberto Batista (minors), Cutter Coffey (minors) and Eddinson Paulino (minors) for Danny Jansen
    • Yohendrick Pinango (minors) and Josh Rivera (minors) for Nate Pearson
    • RJ Schreck (minors) for Justin Turner
    • Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner for Kikuchi
    • Charles McAdoo (minors) for IKF
    • Jay Harry (minors) for Trevor Richards
    • Ryan Yarbrough for Kiermaier.
On August 7th they bought Tommy Nance from SD, Aug 19 Easton Lucas off waivers (via Detroit), Sept 1 Dillon Tate off waivers via Baltimore, Sept 16th Tyler Heineman off waivers from Boston. Plus others who did nothing of note.

Not bad really - waivers did the heavy lifting so far (Heineman did great as the #2 catcher, Nance was big in the regular season eating innings effectively, Lucas & Tate were around). Sharp, Batista, Pinango, Coffey, Paulino, Rivera, Schreck, McAdoo, Harry all haven't had a shot yet. Yarrough, Wagner are both gone after showing hope in '24. A few of those kids will never make it (Sharp had a sub 500 OPS in AA last year so I'm betting against him for example), a few have had cups of coffee (Loperfido had a big few weeks), a couple are now serious prospects (Schreck the best so far). In truth, with how little the guys lost were worth to the Jays in '24 and how all but 1 was a free agent post '24 (IKF who they reacquired for nothing - if only he ran a bit faster/didn't slide) with one of those free agents coming back (Garcia) prospect here, Rivera on the 'also of note' list for FanGraphs as is Batista, we have Schreck at #8, Bloss at #9, Pinango #14, McAdoo #18, Coffey #21. Not bad. Without those trades our system would look a bit worse. Wagner was traded away (to SD) for Brandon Valenzuela (minors) who we didn't rank but FG had at #28 as did BA. So those trades arguably resulted in 6 real prospects on the club, plus a useful ML'er in Loperfido (7th or 8th OF here, 4th elsewhere or part of a platoon).
June Northey - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 08:11 PM EST (#475044) #
metafour - agreed that these system rankings often make little sense vs their top 100's or even their comments with each team. The #1 goal is clicks not accuracy (and even in accuracy days pre-internet it wasn't always that good). ESPN has the Jays system at #16 with notes on Tiedemann, Sam Shaw, and Juan Sanchez as non-top 100's who could surprise this year. Johnny King (#85) and JoJo Parker (#52) are also shown some love here with Yesavage (#14) but no mention of Nimmala (#76) - guess there was only so much space per team allowed - ESPN's top 100 is here.
uglyone - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 08:36 PM EST (#475045) #
good stuff metafour.

and remember the rabid and huge canadian fanbase is very touchy and very good for clicks.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 09:12 PM EST (#475046) #
The Cubs and Blue Jays systems are pretty close together in Law’s ranking (Tier 5 and Tier 6). I respect metafour’s effort in comparing a handful of the prospects in each system, but I don’t see how it establishes any unfairness or bias on Law’s part in ranking each organization’s farm system as a whole.

One point. Law doesn’t “go on” about the lost draft pick for signing Santander. He actually frames the lost pick as a virtue because it indicates the team is doing a good thing — spending money on the MLB roster in an effort to win. He writes “tsk tsk” as a tongue-in-cheek way, not as a literal criticism. And he does this very briefly. He doesn’t go on about it at all.

As for bias, Law has been extremely positive about the Blue Jays recent first-round picks (Nimmala, Yesavage, Parker), and he’s a huge fan of Marc Tramuta, saying he was a great hire.
uglyone - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 09:27 PM EST (#475047) #
thanks, Keith!
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 09:29 PM EST (#475048) #
What's the purpose of sharing information from Keith Law, reading other posters who question the validity of his views (based on a long standing bias he's had with the team) followed by your criticism of some of these posters (me) followed by your defense of your initial post ... all while refusing to comment or acknowledge the history and only discuss the single referenced article as if nothing else before it exists?

If Keith Law only ever wrote one article in his life and it was the one you referenced then nobody would be criticizing it. Defending it does not remove his clear bias from his history. What were you saying about lazy?
June Northey - Thursday, January 29 2026 @ 10:30 PM EST (#475049) #
Law, like all reporters, has his own biases and around here we all know his pretty well. However, remember, he has been away from the Jays for nearly 20 years now (2002-2006 was his time here). Since then the front office has switched over entirely twice. I'd be surprised if he has any strong feelings regarding the Jays vs any other team at this stage, not many of us can hold a grudge that long against a company where pretty much everything has changed over.

I am curious who he puts as the Jays top prospects (dropped my sub to the Athletic as I mentioned a few threads ago). Haven't been that impressed with Baseball Prospectus now that I subbed to it for a year, but once it runs out I'll probably go to Baseball America which I used to enjoy a lot back in the 80's and 90's in the paper format (back then it was pretty much the only way to get info on the minors, always a month late, but it was something). I did notice a few sites are publishing their lists - Prospects 1500 is a minor site imo but they do a decent job - lots of details about the Jays prospects they list (50 of them) and the first to list Kazuma Okamoto as a prospect (I disagree with listing guys over 25 from Japan as prospects, but whatever). FanGraphs list has been discussed, Baseball Prospectus has their list up too, as does Baseball America. MLB Pipeline will eventually have their updated list up. TSN should be up soon too, ESPN is next week, FanTrax has their top 500 prospects with 17 Jays on the list (about average - perfectly even for 30 teams is 16 2/3 each). Any other sites with top prospects for the Jays listed? Other than our own of course.
mathesond - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 04:24 AM EST (#475050) #
What use are Canadian clicks to American advertisers?
Glevin - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 07:56 AM EST (#475051) #
I find the idea that Law holds some grudge against the Jays becuase he worked here 20 years ago, silly. He's just another prospect guy and I find him mostly interesting. #25 seems low, but it's quite possible that there's very little difference between system #16 and #25 anyway. They might be in same tier. Anyway, I like our system and there are a whole bunch of fascinating guys to follow this year.
uglyone - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 09:37 AM EST (#475052) #
more of a grudge against jays fans, tbh.

deep in his heart, Law has always loved trolling. I respect his trolling game.
scottt - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 10:16 AM EST (#475053) #
Traded for prospects don't always produce year one.

It's not that they were traded. It's that they were 45+ type prospects. 
It seems that the view is that the rankings are statistical.
Many 60 prospects fail along the way and man 40 prospects end up contributing in MLB.
So, having a large number of middling prospects has value, but how much?
How many guys outside the top 500 equal a top 10 prospect?
I wouldn't trade a top 10 for 20 of those guys.

The cumulative value of the subjective values of the prospects isn't even objective.
It's all hand waving.
Nigel - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 11:57 AM EST (#475054) #
I think its a problem to just dismiss, out of hand, any of these perspectives from knowledgeable prospect reviewers. These are all subjective reviews. The greater the number of subjective reviews the better the overall perspective is likely to be. The world suffers far to much these days from "there's only one view" echo chambers.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 12:15 PM EST (#475055) #
Gents (and ladies) I don't disagree with any of this. With respect to Law, his POV of the Blue Jays (or their fans) was brought up by me in relation to his lower ranking of the Toronto system when most things pointed to a higher expected ranking compared to other prognosticators. There's no personal vendetta or echo chamber. I wouldn't take Keith Law's lowered Blue Jay ranking over other comparable scouts, personally.

My post regarding not putting much weight into Law's opinions if you don't also do the same for Ricciardi was done in light of the fact that I've read most posters bash Ricciardi here over the years. It's interesting to me to dismiss one baseball mind while accepting another mind when both were a team in the FO. Now let me update that I've actually gone into the archives of battersbox via Google search and most of the posters from that time are actually not part of the site anymore, which was surprising.

Mike Green - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 12:28 PM EST (#475056) #
I haven't yet found a single place where I agree with almost all prospect ratings.  Fangraphs has Jake Bloss as the Blue Jays 3rd best prospect  and Yohendrick Pinango as their 11th best, and Jake Cook not mentioned at all.  I don't agree.  But they have Adrian Pinto and Trey Yesavage rated appropriately in my view.  

The ad hominem criticisms of Keith Law are tiresome, particularly because when Law left the Jays, the GM made unnecessary ad hominem comments which Law handled in his stride.  Anyways, who really cares whether the Blue Jays have the 25th or 18th best system because their second and third tier of prospects are better or worse than some other team in that range, according to one reviewer?  You'll never really know because the Adrian Pintos and Ernie Clements and Davis Schneiders of the baseball world will develop or not- as it depends on so many things.


Glevin - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 12:28 PM EST (#475057) #
"I think its a problem to just dismiss, out of hand, any of these perspectives from knowledgeable prospect reviewers. These are all subjective reviews. The greater the number of subjective reviews the better the overall perspective is likely to be. The world suffers far to much these days from "there's only one view" echo chambers."

I agree and I think prospect evaluators are more likely to bunch than most. "Everyone loves this guy. I thought he looked OK but I better play it safe).
greenfrog - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 12:32 PM EST (#475058) #
It’s pretty clear that Keith Law is a hot-button issue for some posters, producing instant outrage when his name is mentioned.

But maybe it’s now time to consider that Law has probably developed and matured as a writer and analyst. The Law/Ricciardi era in Toronto was a long, long time ago. Law has been a writer for ESPN and The Athletic for many years since then, and he’s written a couple of well-regarded books (Smart Baseball and The Inside Game). He’s also a Harvard and Cornell grad.

Maybe, just maybe, he has a few valid things to say. Worth a ponder.
June Northey - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 12:42 PM EST (#475059) #
dalimon5 - it is amazing how much turnover happens everywhere. I go back in the archives and am always surprised how long it took me to come over here from usenet (joined in 2005, over a year after the site was going). For the past 21 years it has been a blast - don't worry, not going anywhere (sorry to anyone sick of my POV's)

Law it is safe to say has changed a lot since 2006 - in 20 years we all grow up a lot, regardless of age at the time. 20 years ago I was married with no children. Now I have 4 daughters and 7 grandchildren (we adopted a few of my girls) but no wife (she died over a decade ago). I was working hard back then - 60 hour weeks for little pay. Now I am semi-retired but keeping an eye open for work as well, ready for the next phase of life (big changes coming soon).

20 years ago Law was a guy who was a writer made into a top consultant at the Jays, his big break. Then he went back to writing and has been at it ever since. Safe to say his skill set has improved in a lot of ways since then. Odds are anyone from back then will be very different now. He isn't always my cup of tea so to speak, but others are also annoying out there. Jayson Stark's bit used to be a lot of fun but now is dull to me (same bit he's done for over 20 years now - cute now and then, but c'mon guy, do something different, expand beyond 'here is the odd stuff from the past week'). Hrm. Where was I going.... sigh... price of old age. Ah well. Bottom line, we all change and that is good. Reading multiple opinions is good. In a few weeks I'll be posting a summary of the prospect lists from as many as I can (have Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, Prospects 1500, Fantrax HQ, and Batters Box of course). #1 across the board is Trey (gasp! shock!) with 3 guys sharing the #2 slot. By my scoring system Arjun Nimmala and JoJo Parker are tied for 2nd right now with Johnny King and Ricky Tiedemann clear 4/5's. Up to 86 prospects so far with many named just once.
June Northey - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 01:04 PM EST (#475060) #
Just noticed the Angels are up at FG: 36 are 35+, 2 50's, 2 45+'s, 28 40 or higher. Jays were 40 35+, 3 50 or better, one 45+, 33 total 40+. So clearly the Jays system is better than the Angels system via FG. Seattle was 8 50 or better (wow), 15 40 or better (not as good), 25 total 35+. So a very, very top heavy organization. Cleveland has 6 at 50 or more (including ex-Jay Khal Stephen), 34 at 40 or more, 46 at 35+ or more. Clearly stronger than the Jays in depth and high end, although none in Cleveland ranked at 60 like Yesavage, plus they NEED to be strong in the minors or they won't survive.
uglyone - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 03:45 PM EST (#475061) #
"consider that Law has probably developed and matured"

nah
mathesond - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 05:10 PM EST (#475062) #
Well, if we haven't then why should he?
uglyone - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 05:25 PM EST (#475063) #
exactly!
uglyone - Friday, January 30 2026 @ 10:55 PM EST (#475064) #
Very good Davis Schneider thread:

https://x.com/DownToBlack/status/2017344755181457784?s=20
greenfrog - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 07:36 AM EST (#475065) #
BA lists Tiedemann as one of "15 MLB prospects who could bounce back in 2026."
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 09:54 AM EST (#475066) #
I am very very excited about Ricky.
Glevin - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 10:19 AM EST (#475067) #
Could definitely see Ricky in a late inning spot this season if he can stay healthy. Being a starter long term would be great but staying healthy is most important right now and likely easier as a reliever this year (and where Jays have bigger need). One prospect I don't think mentioned that could surprise is Jake Casey. Small school, was bad until draft year but some good skills and great debut. Probably will have problems as he moves up levels but maybe he can adjust and become something.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 10:19 AM EST (#475068) #
My hope is that he logs some consistent and healthy innings as a reliever during the regular season, and can amp up to be a dominant RP in 1-2 IP outings in the postseason.
SK in NJ - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 10:45 AM EST (#475069) #
Wouldn’t mind seeing Tiedemann as a multi inning reliever out of the pen in 2026 to 1) give him a decent innings ceiling for 2026, and 2) fill a need in the Jays pen. They can convert him back to a SP in 2027 but I can’t imagine he will be throwing that many innings regardless in 2026 due to coming off injury and his lack of innings prior to the injury, so might as well maximize them to help the big league team.
uglyone - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 10:53 AM EST (#475070) #
Ricky was throwing off a mound already all the way back in July/August. He has likely been on a continuous progressive strengthening and readiness program since then.

He'll be up to 8 or 9 months of active continuous healthy rehab by the time opening day rolls around.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 11:00 AM EST (#475071) #
Like Nate Pearson, Tiedemann has a long history of injuries in his early career. If the Blue Jays can get a few healthy and productive RP seasons from him before he breaks down again, I would count that as a win.
uglyone - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 11:27 AM EST (#475072) #
Except that Pearson hasn't had any injury issues the past few years, he just isn't very good. Mostly because in the end all he was was a one pitch pitcher. His Slider never turned into a good pitch and he could never locate his curve.

And even then, the Jays didn't give up on Pearson until age 26.


But Ricky is a much better prospect than Nate was.

Tiedemann at 19 was better in AA than Pearson was when he finally got there at age 22.

Tiedemann at 20 was better in his first AAA stint than Pearson was when he got there at age 22.

greenfrog - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 12:08 PM EST (#475073) #
Could be. Hard to say how much Tiedemann's injury issues and lost development time will impact his future path. I figure if he has a few good seasons as a reliever, then he'll have worked out pretty well for Toronto. That is more than most pitching prospects produce in the majors.
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 12:54 PM EST (#475074) #
Ricky has elite stuff and pitches from the left side. That is insanely precious and his upside is someone like Christopher Sanchez. I hope they take the TB approach and have him pitch and dominate (as a starter) in the minors until he is ready to be called up not unlike Manoah and Yesavage before him.

I think he'd be a bit wasted coming from the bullpen with his 3 pitches (not counting any others he may be developing with the team).
June Northey - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 04:21 PM EST (#475075) #
I agree dalimon5 - I suspect the Jays will be watching him closely this year - using him as a starter with a strict pitch limit/inning limit every game - doubt he'll get more than 5 IP in any game until the 2nd half, if then. Come September he might be called up and used either as a starter or long relief depending what is needed. A solid LH option would be nice to have in either role. But if others are doing better or he is hurt then he won't be up. The pressure to use was higher with Pearson than Tiedemann as the Jays are in far better shape now. It all depends on health and need.

There are a few kids who could be in the Yesavage role come September - Tiedemann the obvious. Fernando Perez, Jake Bloss, Johnny King, Gage Stanifer - all have the potential to do a Yesavage this year - climb fast to the top and be used in a critical role in September if needed. In 2027 Buffalo could have a killer rotation.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 08:03 PM EST (#475076) #
Arraez to the Giants, 1/$12m. Seems like a reasonable move for the team, and it's not a terrible outcome for the player. If he rebounds a bit this year (closer to the 130 wRC+ hitter he was in 2022-2023), Arraez could get a better contract next off-season. He's still only 28 (almost 29).
Marc Hulet - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 10:38 PM EST (#475077) #
John, your enthusiasm is a little misplaced... King is 19 with less than 40 innings at Low-A ball... nowhere near the same case as Yesavage... and 2026 will likely be mostly a right-off for Bloss rehabbing from Tommy John. He should be ready for game action May-July but has a lot of build up to do. None of the Jays' 3 or 4 TJ-rehabbers looked good last year when they returned.
June Northey - Saturday, January 31 2026 @ 10:59 PM EST (#475078) #
Marc - with pitchers development can be fast. Remember, Osuna went from A+ at 19 to the majors at 20 (skipping AA/AAA entirely until age 23 on rehab, just before being dumped on Houston) - he was in Japan last year at age 30. Hope he never returns to the majors.

I'd be surprised if Bloss comes back this year to the majors to be honest, but I had forgotten about his TJ surgery. He is a strong possibility for Buffalo in '27 though, and while King is just in his age 19 season this year, 19 year olds jumping can happen. Rare, but it can happen - I just had him as a possibility, not a likely. Tiedemann and Stanifer are the likely ones. Bloss is least likely, followed by King. Perez is a decent possibility entering age 22 season with some AA experience and 121 innings last year. A good year by Perez, Tiedemann, or Stanifer should put those 3 in competition for a slot in August/September if anyone is hurt/ineffective in the majors at that point thus in the Yesavage slot. King would need a year like Yesavage had last year to do it (very unlikely), Bloss would need to come back strong from TJ. So those 2 are unlikely, but not unheard of. Yeah, I shouldn't have included them on my list of likely cases the more I think about it, but they are strong candidates for a killer 2027 AAA rotation. I like the looks of the Jays rotation for '27 and beyond with those 5 and Cease-Yesavage-Ponce, potentially Berrios too. 1-2 slots are all that are open for '27 it appears for the rotation if all goes close to planned. Hopefully at least one of Tiedemann-Stanifer-Perez is ready for 2027 as well.
Glevin - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 07:58 AM EST (#475079) #
Baffling signing by Giants because Arraez just is not any good. Even if he bounces back to the 109 WRC+ OF 2 years ago, there's nothing else there. Worse even, is the Giants signed him to play 2B where he is awful. He will be the worst defensive 2Bman in baseball. He was two years ago and I doubt he's going to get better as he gets older. The left side of their IF is Chapman and Arraez and right side is Arraez and Devers.

I love King as a prospect but he's also the one guy out of the top-7 I'd be most willing to trade because a pitcher low in the minors has so many ways to fail as a prospect.
greenfrog - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 09:28 AM EST (#475080) #
I think the Giants' logic is probably something like (1) the team's current second base options are abymsal, (2) the asking price for Donovan is too high, (3) Arraez is around a projected 1.5-2.5 WAR player (and he was a 3.4 WAR player as recently as 2023), (4) he suffered from a low BABIP in 2025 (.289), and (5) a one-year, $12m contract is a modest financial commitment.
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 09:47 AM EST (#475081) #
The logic for their new World Series winning leader Buster Posey may be as simple as "I don't care about WAR I've seen the anemic offense and need someone who can get on base reliably."

Of course Buster has an entire analytics driven team on his side so it would be easy for him to make "exceptions" to players that don't grade great on a WAR scale. I would put Santander in the exact same type of value plain as Arraez. When he's going he's one of the hardest players to get out in baseball and that's worth something which WAR can't evaluate. It's not every day you find a .317 career average hitter coming off down years with an average of .292.
greenfrog - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 10:22 AM EST (#475082) #
Posey was a HOF-calibre player, but that doesn't mean he'll be a great President of Baseball Operations. Last year the Giants had a .500 record under him.

You have to be careful about valorizing one-attribute players, because you're also acquiring their other less-positive attributes. Atkins made this mistake early in his career when he signed Kendrys Morales. He hit 49 home runs across two seasons for Toronto, but he was not a good player overall (0.3 fWAR in 1079 PA).

As mentioned, Arraez's contract is for one year (unlike Morales' 3/33 contract), so it's low-risk for SF and I think it could work out fine.
scottt - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 11:10 AM EST (#475083) #
Berrios is one of 10 players from Puerto Rico who have been denied insurance coverage for the WBC.
His injury has been tagged as "chronic" because he didn't finish the year on the 26 roster.
That much really sting for a guy who was called "the machine" for never being hurt.

Puerto Rico is considering withdrawing all-together.
That would be weird since they are one of the 4 hosts.
uglyone - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 11:56 AM EST (#475084) #
for 1yr/$12m it's a good risk imo. $12m isn't even "gotta start him" money tbh.

even at his worst he's been an above average bat, and was a great bat just a couple years ago, and he's 29.

Projections:

Arraez (29): 109wrc+, 2.6war/650
Santander (31): 108wrc+, 1.6war/650
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 12:03 PM EST (#475085) #
I don't think Atkins (or any good GM) grades a contract or player based on their individual accomplishment or rating only. Will this player improve the wins overall for the team, yes or no? That's the important question. I'll take a guy who hits 49 HR over 2 years if my team is low on offense and high on defensive runs saved and we will lose less games without adding offense.

Again, WAR is a vacuum stat for measuring individual performance. It does not mean that the player with the higher WAR will contribute to more overall team wins compared to a player with a lower WAR rating. I feel this limit of WAR is always overlooked.

WAR is an incredible stat for helping to measure players on an individual basis. At a certain point it reaches its limits and cannot inform roster decisions.
uglyone - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 12:14 PM EST (#475086) #
i mean dalimon you have the exact wrong interpretation of WAR. your arguments against it apply much more to stats you like, like HR, than they could ever apply to WAR.
Glevin - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 12:26 PM EST (#475087) #
Arraez is bad. He's a slightly above average bat but will maybe be worst fielder in baseball and can't run either. In his last season as a regular 2Bman (2023) he had - 11 OAA. He's going to be worse this year. His average exit velocity when he had those two good hitting years was 29/48th percentile. Last two years, it's been 9th and 6th percentile. His skills have degraded significantly. Would take Santander over him every day of the week.
June Northey - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 12:38 PM EST (#475088) #
dalimon5 - one big thing about WAR people forget is it isn't 100% accurate.  There are so many variables even today that cannot be accounted for.  Intuitively we know 'clutch' exists but no one can prove it exists as a skill.  Same for other stuff like 'leadership' and 'ability to gel within a team'.

Also, if a team is scoring and allowing very few runs, how much more do you gain by improving defense further?  Can you save enough runs to compensate for the weak bat once a team gets to a certain point?  Same for the opposite, if you are, say, the 1995 Rockies can you score enough to overcome poor defense?  There is a limit to each direction.  Right now the Jays can afford a weak defensive corner OF as they have 2 amazing defensive CF'ers in Varsho & Straw thus can afford a bit of weakness in Santander as they can pull him late if leading and put in Straw.  Similar in the IF with Gimenez being a 'wow' defender plus having Clement who also is a 'wow', mixed with Vlad who is good at saving bad throws (wonder how his defensive stats will change with no Bo throwing balls all over).  The team has space to mix in a poor defender if needed in the IF as well.  Okamoto is a 'to be seen' guy on defense (GG equivalent in Japan at 3B and 1B but is he still at that level at 3B?).

Now, I'm doubtful that Santander can cover up his warts with his hot streaks, but I do see how a streaky player can be a bigger asset if you have a steady team around them.  A hot week from Santander could add a couple wins, while a cold week might not cost too much depending on assorted circumstances.  For now I'll try to be hopeful that he produces enough to make it work.  Not much choice as fans really.  But if he flops I hope the Jays move quickly to plan B (Schneider/Lukes) or to a plan C (trade or call up someone) and don't hold off too long.  This is a killer division and you can't afford to sit and hope (4 of the top 10 teams in MLB are in this division based on assorted rating systems).
bpoz - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 04:39 PM EST (#475089) #
We have had our share of bad base running players and guys that get picked off too often. These are usually young guys. Vlad and Bo I believe had these problems. Biggio I don't think had this problem and Kirk as well did not. Kirk is a slow runner but very smart.

IMO Ernie has adjusted. Not sure about Barger and Schneider. Hopefully Loperfido, Schreck, Leo and Kasevich are quick learners.
uglyone - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 05:00 PM EST (#475090) #
nobody thinks any stat is perfect.

but WAR actually specifically addresses the issues Dalimon brings up that are the downfall of any isolated stat, like HR.

you can argue that different combinations of stats with the same resulting war might be more or less valuable to certain teams, obviously. you can even argue that certain WAR always under or over rates certain stats (though you probably want to show your work there0.

but in general WAR has proven itself as a pretty solid basis for any comparison of how players contribute to team wins.


Glevin - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 06:39 PM EST (#475091) #
Suarez signed for 1/$15 with cinci which is absurdly cheap for a guy with 4 straight 3.5 WAR seasons. Didn't make sense for Jays but Red Sox, Pirates, and other should have beaten that easily.
scottt - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 06:48 PM EST (#475092) #
Or what the Mets are paying Bichette to play 3B.
June Northey - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 09:21 PM EST (#475093) #
A bit of a surprise how cheap Suarez was, but at this stage of the winter not a shock. I suspect Valdez will be a lot cheaper than expected now, and Zac Gallen will pretty much take what he can get, regretting not taking that QO at this point I'm sure. Nothing that catches my eye for the Jays unless they want to go with Valdez and find a home for Berrios (eating a big chunk of '27 and '28's salary).
dalimon5 - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 09:44 PM EST (#475094) #
Ugly, you overestimate my gripe with WAR.

"you can argue that different combinations of stats with the same resulting war might be more or less valuable to certain teams, obviously."

THIS. This is exactly my argument against using WAR to criticize a contract or player addition to a team. That's my only complaint about the way people apply the stat. "Player x is only worth x WAR therefore it's a bad deal or signing." People take an individual stat and use that to evaluate the value of the signing to the overall team which is not the same thing. Essentially "Arraez is not worth x amount of money because of his WAR" is a valid point in my books but "signing Arraez to that deal is a terrible move because he's not worth that WAR," is not IN SOME INSTANCES WHRRE THAT TYPE OF PLAYER IS MORE VALUABLE TO THE TEAM based on skill set not WAR. I think it's one of those cases of both things being true.
greenfrog - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 10:01 PM EST (#475095) #
I'm sure that is the case -- teams valuing different components of WAR differently for a particular player -- but I doubt there are huge discrepancies in this regard.

For example, a team might place a bit more weight on Santander's home run power, or Arraez's contact ability, than they do on the other components of those player's overall WAR. But that weighting wouldn't make the player in question *much* more valuable to the acquiring team than his WAR would indicate. Maybe a bit more valuable, depending on the team's ability to use the player optimally.

This is because the player's other attributes, such as baserunning or defense, still matter. For example, a GM might like Santander's power -- but if his OBP is .290, he's a slow baserunner, and his outfield defensive is lackluster, those aspects of his game will still drag down his value (i.e., his ability to impact the team's W-L record). Ignoring this mathematical reality is just magical thinking.
Michael - Sunday, February 01 2026 @ 11:30 PM EST (#475096) #
Seems like a team friendly deal as 15M for Suarez in only 1 year is a deal that can't be too wrong, and certainly has upside to being right. They may play him as much or more at 1B/DH than 3B which may cut into his WAR since he may be more an average player at that position instead of above average at 3B, but still I think 2+ WAR should be the case 2/3 to 3/4 of the time, and 3+ WAR isn't out of the question and a 1/5 or 1/6 chance of 4+ WAR even (4.1 WAR is his career best, but he's been 3.5 or above 5 times including last year by br). And 15M is like 1.5-2 WAR payment, so I think that's quite good for the team signing.
92-93 - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 10:47 AM EST (#475097) #
Suarez made perfect sense for the Jays before they signed Okamoto. Let's hope their Asian scouting is good.
Mike Green - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 10:59 AM EST (#475098) #
Speaking of Blue Jay shortstops, the 2026 version is Andres Gimenez and I'm bullish on him.  He's 27 with a variety of talents, and coming off a very unlucky season.  Last year, he had an xwOBA of .303 (his career average) but didn't get the results thanks to a .239 BABIP.  He hit line drives (over 22%) and ground balls (he still has above-average speed) and he has some power.  As lucky as Tyler Heineman was last year, Gimenez was equally unlucky.  Defensively, Statcast's Outs Above Average suggests that he has been about as good at shortstop over his career as at second base (in under 1/5 of the opportunities), which is pretty impressive.  Over his career, Gimenez has had only a small platoon split and hit well enough against LHP.  

I expect a good year from Gimenez and wouldn't be at all surprised if he delivers a great one.  
Glevin - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 11:50 AM EST (#475099) #
Jays are going to build a statue to commemorate the 92/93 winners. Finally!! Hopefully, it's first of a number of statues.
greenfrog - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 01:19 PM EST (#475100) #
Fangraphs playoff odds are up. Here are the AL East odds:

NYY: Win Div 29.7%, Make Playoffs 68.2%, Win WS 6.1%

Bos: Win Div 24.0%, Make Playoffs 61.7%, Win WS 5.1%

Tor: Win Div 23.8%, Make Playoffs 61.8%, Win WS 4.7%

Bal: Win Div 18.6%, Make Playoffs 55.0%, Win WS 3.6%

TB: Win Div 3.9%, Make Playoffs 20.6%, Win WS 0.7%

The off-season isn't quite over, so those odds could still evolve in the coming weeks.
uglyone - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 01:37 PM EST (#475101) #
even better, Glevin - they're taking down the statue of Ted Rogers!

nepo baby Ed jr. is turning out to be ok.
June Northey - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 02:25 PM EST (#475102) #
For statues I saw on Mike Wilner's bluesky feed a few ideas - 1985 Bell/Fernandez after the catch to clinch the AL East for the first time, the bat flip, Winfield's double in '92, Stieb's no-no. I've tried to think of stuff for the dead zone (1994-2014) but only came up with Delgado's 4 HR game. A generic Halladay throwing a pitch could be a statue but he never had a big moment here (perfect game and playoff no-hitter for Philly). Springer's Dinger will be there someday (once the pain of the WS loss fades), while I figure Vlad will have a bigger moment someday. No statues until they retire so Vlad had 14 years to do something 'wow' - even more than his last playoff.

A Jays HOF would be nice too. Only 21 Jays have 20+ bWAR here with McGriff and Ernie Whitt just shy. Vlad is 11th with his 25.9 WAR, just behind Lloyd Moseby with Hentgen and Vernon Wells in eyeshot. Barfield and Key he'll have to have a strong year to pass (29.5 & 29.6 so almost a 4 WAR year needed). Delgado's 36.8 would require a historic year to reach so top 5 will have to wait a year or two. Above Delgado are Stieb (56.8)-Halladay-Bautista-Fernandez. 3rd he'll reach fairly soon (Bautista 38.4) but top 2 will be harder. Halladay is 48 WAR. Btw, Bo finishes tied with Juan Guzman and just ahead of Alex Rios with Bell 0.2 ahead of him. Kirk, Varsho, & Gausman are all in the 11's, so 2 or 3 good years from reaching the top 24. Springer is at 14.4 (I hear the modem) so he could crack the top 24 (BR lists the top 24 for a franchise) with an excellent year but I am not betting on it. I figure he'd need to resign for another year or two to make 20 here.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 03:27 PM EST (#475103) #
There was a big shake up in Minnesota. Falvey is out after 10 years. He was steering the ship this past deadline where much of the roster was purged. Buxton, Lopez and Ryan were not traded, however.

They are projected for 4th place (77 Wins) in the Central. The new guy is talking about contending, but when and how if it's in 2026? Anyone else wonder if Buxton can be gotten now whereas before he couldn't?
uglyone - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 04:56 PM EST (#475104) #
Donovan to Seattle
dalimon5 - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 05:03 PM EST (#475105) #
Is it me or is Atkins asleep?
dalimon5 - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 05:04 PM EST (#475106) #
Let me try again

"Who wants to wake Atkins up?
bpoz - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 05:30 PM EST (#475107) #
Shapiro and Atkins are probably done with their off season shopping. They moved fast and IMO they did a great job. The start of ST is 10-12 days away.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 06:21 PM EST (#475108) #
eck, I don't love 2 of Barger, Schneider and Clement starting every day in addition to Gimenez and Varsho playing everyday.
Glevin - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 07:48 PM EST (#475109) #
Donavon is a good players but Seattle gave up one 50 FV, one 40+ FV, and a young player who has a chance to be an everyday player but likely more of a platoon guy. For the Jays that's something like Nimmala, Stanifer, and Schreck or maybe King, Sanchez, and Kasevich. Either way, doesn't make sense for a team in Jays position IMO.
greenfrog - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 09:10 PM EST (#475110) #
Seattle has a top-tier farm system and a team that almost made the WS last year. This move makes sense for them. Also, they had the best playoff odds in the AL *before* this move. Their odds are probably up to around 73-75% now.

The Blue Jays have one of the weaker farm systems in MLB, so Donovan (or Marte) was always something of an unlikely acquisition for them.

Sure wish they’d been able to snag Tucker, though.
greenfrog - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 09:18 PM EST (#475111) #
If Seattle faces Toronto again in the 2026 postseason, Donovan will be a useful LH bat for them against the RHP-heavy Blue Jays (Cease, Gausman, Bieber, Yesavage, Ponce, Hoffman, Garcia, Rogers, Varland, Fisher).

Smart move.
dalimon5 - Monday, February 02 2026 @ 11:51 PM EST (#475112) #
The Blue Jays absolutely have the pieces to acquire Donovan or Marte but decided against it, to Glevin's point. If Toronto had the top farm system in baseball I still don't think they would have made the move which I think was Glevin's point. He didn't comment on the merit of Seattle's decision to trade for Donovan only that it was too steep a price for a team like Toronto presumably because he thinks they are a better team than SEA.
bpoz - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 08:59 AM EST (#475113) #
Some people are putting Ponce in the rotation at the expense of Berrios. They are not explaining why. IMO if healthy Berrios "has" to be in the rotation. My explanation is that he has 10 years in the majors, so going to the pen is an insult. He will unhappy but worse all the other ML veterans will take note of this "insult" which will reflect badly on the Jays. I remember Kikuchi volunteering to go to the minors and R Martin sitting so that Jansen and McGuire could play. Casey Janssen lost his closer job to A Sanchez after the AS break and he complained but he was bad at the time. So that is my reason but I could be wrong. However it may not matter because the #6 will probably get a lot of starts.
scottt - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 09:05 AM EST (#475114) #
Seattle's second baseman last year was Cole Young who only produced 0.5 WAR. He was eventually replaced by Polanco who started as their DH.

Clement was worth 4.3 WAR last year.
Donovan was worth 2.7.

We will see if Okamoto is better than Clement at 3B, that's the gamble we took.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 09:58 AM EST (#475115) #
The Jays clearly view Clement (and Gimenez vs RHP) as everyday players so once Okamoto was signed, they were probably done adding to the infield. My guess is they are done with the significant roster moves but if they do make a trade for a position player then I think it’s in the OF.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 10:08 AM EST (#475116) #
I think the jays rightly were looking to add a clearcut fulltime impact bat (like tucker or Bo), but feel no real need to add another platoon-ish 3war-ish type guy to the mix.

they have plenty of those already.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 10:09 AM EST (#475117) #
I notice that scherzer and bassitt are still out there.

I'd be happy to welcome them back at any time.
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 10:11 AM EST (#475118) #
I think there would have been room for Donovan on the roster, either because Gimenez/Clement are not quite everyday players, or because of depth needs due to injuries. As I’ve previously mentioned, there would have been strong L/R platoon or pinch-hitting advantages to having all three of Gimenez, Clement and Donovan on the roster, especially in a highly competitive division where a marginal win or two could put one team over the top.
92-93 - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 10:53 AM EST (#475119) #
Barger can cover 3B, but there is not enough depth behind Gimenez and Clement unless they are willing to play Schneider at 2B. Davis should really benefit from the ABS challenge system - uglyone posted a great twitter thread on that earlier.
Mike Green - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 11:06 AM EST (#475120) #
It reminds me of the Ben Zobrist situation in 2015, with one key difference.  This is taking place in the spring with a player who has 2 years of control, rather than at the deadline with a player who will be a free agent at the end of the year.  Zobrist was a similar left-handed hitter then playing second base and the outfield (although he didn't have an arm issue so could play right field).  

Anthopoulos received some criticism (including from Shapiro) for trading away so many prospects in the Price and Tulowitzki deals.  He responded that he wished that he had gone further and traded Tellez for Zobrist.  In hindsight, he was probably right about that, much as I liked Rowdy.  He ended up acquiring Ben Revere, and that wasn't quite enough.

I don't know if the Jays were interested in Donovan (he would be a definite upgrade on Lukes and Santander in the outfield and a useful role player in the infield and he hits enough to be a better option than Santander when Springer isn't DHing), but they ought to have been.  On the other hand, I doubt that St. Louis would have been satisfied with the prospect(s) that the Jays could offer.





June Northey - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 11:10 AM EST (#475121) #
Donovan would've been a nice to have, but who knows what St Louis wanted from the Jays for him. I know I wouldn't give up Nimmala for him.

As to Scherzer and/or Bassitt - either would be nice, but where to put them on the overloaded roster?
SP: Gausman-Cease-Bieber-Yesavage-Berrios or Ponce
RP: Hoffman-Garcia-Rogers-Varland-Little-Lauer-Berrios or Ponce-Nance or Fisher or Lee or Fluharty or (1001 other names).

For any addition someone gets cut. As is we have 3+ guys who probably deserve time in the pen who won't be there plus 2 rule 5 guys who need to stay or be offered back to their old teams (Bastardo & Miles). I wonder if Scherzer is planning a Clemens - out until mid-season that is - so he has a shot at the Jays if someone is hurt/ineffective (almost inevitable to happen with pitchers). It'll be interesting to see what happens. OF course, we also have Tiedemann-Francis-Estrada-Macko (recovering from injury) and others knocking on the door in AAA and even more lower down (King-Stanifer-Perez-etc.). And least we forget Yariel Rodriguez getting paid millions to pitch in Buffalo at the moment.

Phew, so many pitchers. Lets hope they do well.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 11:55 AM EST (#475122) #
Note that Donovan isn't even likely to play much 2B for the mariners. They want Young to play 2B.

Donovan likely shares LF/DH with Arozarena for the most part.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 11:57 AM EST (#475123) #
unless they intend for Donovan to play 3B, I guess.

though i didn't think he had the arm for that.
June Northey - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 12:31 PM EST (#475124) #
Interesting that Donovan isn't likely to be at 2B. Fangraphs has him at 3B for Seattle, leading off. Much like moving Bo to 3B seems to not be the wisest use of resources. Guess we'll see how that goes for both teams. Here we have everyone at the right spot it seems to me. Okamoto the only one being pushed a bit, but was a top quality 3B in Japan not long ago so who knows?
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 01:17 PM EST (#475125) #
If a versatile player has an established track record of hitting RHP (130 wRC+ career — better than Bichette), you find a way of getting him in the lineup against those pitchers. Especially when he can sometimes sub for a player (Clement) who has a career 82 wRC+ against RHP.


dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 02:06 PM EST (#475126) #
No kidding.
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 02:12 PM EST (#475127) #
If you want to win the World Series and you can’t compete with the Dodgers on spending for players like Tucker and Yamamoto to complete your roster, then you could do worse than acquiring players like Donovan to try to leverage platoon splits. Guerrilla tactics in roster construction.

Seattle should have a pretty good team this year. I could see them making it to the WS (the Blue Jays have a good team as well).
uglyone - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 02:26 PM EST (#475128) #
jays already have a 2B that's done this vRHP in his career so far tho:

2025: 155wrc+
2024: 93wrc+
2023: 133wrc+
dalimon5 - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 02:53 PM EST (#475129) #
* as a platoon hitter with not great defense
** including Babe Ruth freak debut numbers
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 03:05 PM EST (#475130) #
I think the Blue Jays have always tried to curate Schneider’s PA to make sure he had favourable batter-pitcher matchups.

And even with that special treatment, he’s a career 112 wRC+ against RHP — solid, but well below Donovan’s 130 mark.

It will be interesting to see how Davis does in 2026. With Bichette’s departure, he has become a more important player for the team.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 03:33 PM EST (#475131) #
Line ups using Last year's stats

vRHP

DH Springer 178wrc+
2B Schneider 155
1B Guerrero 129
CF Varsho 129
C Kirk 116
RF Barger 115
3B Okamoto ---
LF Lukes 104
SS Gimenez 80

C Heineman 95
OF Straw 89
IF Clement 75
OF Santander 70

OF Loperfido 155
OF Clase 78
IF Jimenez -100


vLHP

1B Guerrero 163
SS Clement 146
DH Springer 132
C Kirk 113
3B Okamoto ---
2B Schneider 106
LF Lukes 99
CF Varsho 98
RF Straw 93

C Heineman 183
UT Barger 69
IF Gimenez 39
OF Santander 32

OF Loperfido 123
OF Clase 45
IF Jimenez 26




2 years:

vRHP

1B Guerrero 147
DH Springer 138
LF Santander 115
RF Lukes 111
2B Schneider 108
C Kirk 106
3B Okamoto ---
CF Varsho 103
SS Clement 87

UT Barger 104
C Heineman 90
OF Straw 89
IF Gimenez 86

OF Loperfido 99
OF Clase 87
IF Jimenez 74


vLHP

1B Guerrero 165
CF Varsho 121
SS Clement 114
3B Okamoto ---
C Kirk 106
DH Springer 103
LF Santander 101
RF Straw 92
2B Schneider 76

C Heineman 169
OF Lukes 91
IF Gimenez 56
UT Barger 53

IF Jimenez 109
OF Loperfido 67
OF Clase 53



3 years:

vRHP

1B Guerrero 137
DH Springer 125
LF Santander 116
2B Schneider 112
RF Lukes 109
3B Okamoto ---
C Kirk 101
CF Varsho 93
SS Clement 90

UT Barger 104
IF Gimnenez 89
C Heineman 84
OF Straw 75

OF Loperfido 99
OF Clase 87
IF Jimenez 74


vLHP

1B Guerrero 152
SS Clement 114
CF Varsho 113
LF Santander 109
3B Okamoto ---
C Kirk 106
2B Schneider 105
DH Springer 102
RF Lukes 83

C Heineman 186
OF Straw 78
IF Gimenez 75
UT Barger 53

IF Jimenez 109
OF Loperfido 76
OF Clase 53
SK in NJ - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 03:42 PM EST (#475132) #
If the position player group stays the same and Lukes makes the team as the 4th outfielder, then Schneider is definitely going to play 2B (by default). They have no one else on the bench with any ability to play the infield (Lukes and Straw being the other two non-catchers). If Schneider is going to play more 2B, then I think that's a positive for the team. He had 2 HR's off position players last season and was heavily protected in terms of matchups, so the overall numbers likely look better than they should, but he absolutely should have played more over IKF and whoever else they played over him. He's probably a league average level bat and that works at 2B.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 04:18 PM EST (#475133) #
Nobody's expecting a 127wrc+ from Schneider in non-sheltered duty, obviously.

It's kinda funny how much this board disrespects Schneider and Lukes tbh. Two guys who unsurprisingly performed very well after projecting well based on previous performance.


Nigel - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 04:33 PM EST (#475134) #
Once a narrative of someone being a AAAA player has taken root, it is very difficult to turn that ship around regardless of the data. All of which ignores that players often develop in non-linear ways. I won't be surprised if the next player to make the jump from AAAA player to an average major league player (extremely useful on a near league minimum salary) is Jimenez. There's probably a better than even chance that that development occurs on another team's roster though.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 04:50 PM EST (#475135) #
one thing i'd like to see on Jimenez is his milb L/R splits.

because he's only been able to hit lefties in MLB. did he hit righties in milb?

but yeah, before his injury last year, he was still well within the legit prospect track, not the AAAA track at all.



92-93 - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 04:53 PM EST (#475136) #
I'd keep Jimenez over Lukes to start the season in the unlikely event the roster is healthy. There just isn't much playing time for Lukes if Okamoto is an everyday player, because Santander and Barger will man the corners vs RHP. Maybe they sign a SS for Buffalo, but for now there really isn't anyone down there to backup the middle infield and you don't want to be put in a spot where one injury leaves you with just 2 of Gimenez, Clement, and Schneider. If the plan is to start Barger at 3B vs. RHP so Lukes can start in a corner, they should add another MI to the organization now so they aren't left scrambling for one in a time of need.
Nigel - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 05:29 PM EST (#475137) #
Baseball Reference has minor league split data - unfortunately it only gives you OPS data. In 2023 (Jiminez's last full minor league season) he had fairly normal splits (better against LHP but still over .800 OPS against RHP). Prior to 2023, he had pronounced reverse splits. For his minor league career he would appear to have been a better hitter against RHP.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 06:06 PM EST (#475138) #
that's good to know.
June Northey - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 07:45 PM EST (#475139) #
Jimenez is a tough one - FG has him projected as an 88-94 wRC+ hitter next year, solid for a middle infielder, but his defense is 0 DRS & -4 OAA at SS (330 innings), +2 DRS & +2 OAA at 2B (243 innings). So solid at 2B but poor at SS. Not good for a backup IF. I don't think that level of defense detail is available for the minors anywhere yet. I think he'd be adequate as a backup, if an injury to Gimenez or Clement happens he'd be adequate at 2B with the other guy at SS. If both go down then we have headaches with Jimenez at SS and Schneider at 2B, but not impossible ones to deal with.

The question becomes what do the Jays want from the last guy on the bench - IF fielding skills or OF? A LH or RH bat? Which of Lukes/Schneider/Jimenez (Lukes & Schneider have options left) is best as a pinch runner? Lots to debate. I figure Straw is a lock to backup Varsho thus leaving just 2 slots for those 3, which also means there is an advantage for Schneider & Jimenez with their ability to play the IF while Lukes is a pure OF. Without Straw Lukes would be safe as a backup CF.

Right now I'd bet on Lukes going to Buffalo (poor guy, deserves better) and Jimenez sticking (0 options, plays the IF). Gimenez is the only guy you'd pinch hit for, maybe Varsho & Barger vs a tough LH late. All 3 are LH so RH bats are all that is needed right now on the bench.
uglyone - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 09:27 PM EST (#475140) #
Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman have both "learned" that the Jays are one of several teams interested in Framber.

no other teams named.
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 09:52 PM EST (#475141) #
That rumour kind of makes sense. The Blue Jays could lose Gausman, Bieber and Berrios after 2026. They’ll need more starting pitching after Cease, Yesavage and Ponce. And (correct me if I’m wrong) the FA starting pitching market next offseason doesn’t look great — beyond Skubal, that is.

Adding Framber now could be a good move, especially if his market is somewhat depressed at the moment.
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 09:57 PM EST (#475142) #
Another reason Framber could make sense for the Blue Jays: his perennially elite GB%. That skill would be a good fit with Toronto’s very good infield defenders in Gimenez, Clement, Vladdy and Kirk.
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 10:34 PM EST (#475143) #
Piece by Ben Clemens yesterday in which he comps Donovan to Zobrist:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-fine-addition-to-their-collection-mariners-acquire-brendan-donovan-in-three-team-swap/
Glevin - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 11:22 PM EST (#475144) #
Valdez would be great. Let the Jays do the Dodgers thing of resting guys all year to make sure they're healthy for playoffs. If someone gets hurt which obviously happens with pitchers, you can absorb it.
June Northey - Tuesday, February 03 2026 @ 11:57 PM EST (#475145) #
It is funny. I posted on BlueSky asking Wilner if he thought the last decent free agent (Valdez) might sign here and he simply said 'I don't'. Pretty sure he and many others see it as a no-go. If they did sign him they'd 100% need to trade Berrios and pay his salary (if he takes the player options for '27 and '28). Ponce can go to the pen easily enough and share the 6/7th starter role with Lauer. I suspect most feel the Jays with their 'we are all a happy team' attitude would avoid Valdez - but I'd check with Vlad and Kirk to see how they felt on that first, plus we all know the media loves a good story and he was that last year.

If they did get Valdez then the rotation with ZIPs projection is...
Gausman (2.8), Cease (3.2), Bieber (2.5), Yesavage (2.1), Valdez (3.5) with Berrios (0.7) and Ponce (1.6) and Lauer (1.1) in the pen/trade bait. That makes for a top 5 = 14.1 - that would've been 5th in MLB last year plus a lot better than the 8.5 the Jays had (+5.6 wins). 14.1 would be tied with the 1996 Jays for 9th best ever for Jay starting pitchers. (best was 2008 at 18.7 - Halladay-Burnett-Litsch-McGowan-etc.)

Interesting that ZiPS sees Valdez as more valuable than anyone currently here for 2026. 5/$150 was the prediction at MLBTR but the price has to be lower now. Entering his age 32 season a 3 year/$75 mil deal with options that are health related could make a lot of sense, perhaps also big bonus' for Cy ranking/playoff MVP stuff.
Glevin - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 09:04 AM EST (#475146) #
I don't think Valdez will be super cheap no matter what. Since 2022, he has been the 5th best pitcher in baseball. Consistently great every year. Lots of teams are interested in him so someone will end up paying a fair bit. Maybe something like 3/$100 with opt outs? He makes a lot of sense for the Jays.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 10:05 AM EST (#475147) #
If the Jays don’t think Framber’s attitude will impact the clubhouse then it would actually be a no brainer signing. Valdez with the Jays infield defense and Kirk/Heineman behind the plate would be pretty enticing, and would give them a deep super rotation that would certainly make getting past 162 in a good spot a lot more feasible. Bieber may not be 100% and Berrios ended the season on the IL, plus Lauer seems like a massive regression candidate to me, so adding a ~4 WAR SP in the absence of an impact position player makes a lot of sense.

Obvious downside would be losing two additional picks, although they are getting one back for losing Bichette. Would they be willing to do that for a 1 plus opt out contract? Might make more sense to just give me a good four year deal with no opt outs and go into 2027 with more rotation certainty (Cease-Valdez-Yesavage/Ponce), but Framber may insist on the opt out.
Marlow - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 11:24 AM EST (#475148) #
One of the lessons that I recall Alex Anthopolous said he learned was that character matters. Before, he would try to just grab the best talent out there. Over time as he evolved as a GM, he realized, that being the right type of person matters just as much. It would be a huge mistake for the Jays to go after a person like Valdez.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 12:00 PM EST (#475149) #
If they signed George Springer to the largest contract in free agent history for the team when they did then...
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 12:24 PM EST (#475150) #
I think that, at a minimum, Framber gets Suarez money. Failing that, he’ll sign a short-term, higher AAV contract with one or more opt-outs.

The division is going to be even more competitive in 2026 if Baltimore lands him.
Nigel - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 12:48 PM EST (#475151) #
The Astros need SP and they aren't talking to Valdez. I think that gives you some insight into how keen anyone should be to take on a guy who plugged his own C and then was completely unapologetic afterwards. I think the chances that the Jays have interest in Valdez are close to zero.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 01:16 PM EST (#475152) #
Still doesn't explain why they wouldn't sign Valdez based on attitude and ethics if they signed Springer.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 01:19 PM EST (#475153) #
Your comment about no interest from the Jays also goes against mainstream reporting. Perhaps money, market and term are impacted but there are no hard, zero tolerance yes/no rules for players with bad attitudes that don't break the law.
mendocino - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 01:52 PM EST (#475154) #
Baseball America
17. Toronto Blue Jays
Top Prospect: Trey Yesavage, RHP

It was a banner season in 2025 for the Blue Jays’ farm system, as their revamped pitching development helped in the emergence of a World Series standout in Yesavage. The righthander leads a loaded top 10 group at the top of the system, but a lack of depth in the 11-20 range drags the system down.

Previous Ranks
2025: 23
2024: 24
2023: 15
2022: 19
2021: 4
Joe - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 02:03 PM EST (#475155) #
D.M. Fox is going to be covering the Jays minor league system for the Toronto Star!
Hey, everyone. I have some exciting news. I’ll be providing coverage of the Blue Jays farm system over the course of the season in the Toronto Star. Next to playing CF and hitting leadoff for the Jays, this is a dream come true. First piece will be in late March. Stay tuned….
uglyone - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 02:20 PM EST (#475156) #
congrats!
Joe - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 02:51 PM EST (#475157) #
for 100% clarity: D.M. Fox is not me :D
uglyone - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 02:52 PM EST (#475158) #
ha!

my bad.

99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 06:03 PM EST (#475159) #
Dalimon, I don’t see your Springer and Valdez as a valuable comparison. One was part of a cheating scandal that the entire team participated in, the other is accused of trying to deliberately harm a team mate(and just not being a very good one to begin with). George’s rep has been that he’s a leader and a great team mate, Valdez is the opposite. The issues are completely different and lumping them together misses the destinations.

On your second point about there being no rules outside of the law, tell that to Osuna, Anthony Bass and Yunel Escobar. Teams make roster decisions on character issues all the time.
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 06:11 PM EST (#475160) #
Osuna did break the law, no?

Maybe Valdez did too...assault with a weapon (a baseball) against a teammate?

Anyway, if he's contrite and his teammates say he's essentially a good guy and can be assimilated into the Blue Jays' friendship culture, it might be OK to add him.
Glevin - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 06:14 PM EST (#475161) #
Even the most uncharitable view of Valdez' s behaviour doesn't put him in the same stratosphere as Osuna.
June Northey - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 06:34 PM EST (#475162) #
Stateside what Osuna did qualifies you for the presidency (sadly). For Valdez if I was Atkins I'd check with Springer, Vlad, and anyone who might know Valdez to see if he would mix in well. If they all feel he would then I'd go for it.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 06:35 PM EST (#475163) #
If you won't sign players with known character issues then you don't. If you do then you do. Springer and other cheating scandal Astros were smeared and booed and their decision to partake in cheating was frowned upon. If you want to build a team only with the strongest character players then you don't sign that type of player. Shapiro also cut ties with Osuna and Bass. I don't think there is an all or nothing approach to signing players with baggage. Instead it comes down to what is best in the eyes of the FO for bettering the team without blowback. Nigel thinks there's no chance this FO has interest in Valdez based on an intentional cross up. I don't agree. Players get into scuffles all the time and Valdez didn't take a swing at anyone he threw a ball to a catcher with intent to cross up but the receiver was still protected.

If you are in a tight race and pass on 4 wins or whatever it is because of that then you have to have a whole lot of faith that "character" will make up the difference or that you don't need to be better. Most predictions don't have the Jays running away with the division.

The best character player the Jays had was Cavan Biggio. Character is crucial but let's not pretend this Free agent (Valdez) has some crazy beliefs and is about to upend and break up the make up of 25 other grown men. He'd been sitting on the market because he's old, has less character than some others over already signed and is probably asking for too much $$$.
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 06:38 PM EST (#475164) #
Stateside what Osuna did qualifies you for the presidency

Or maybe a position on SCOTUS.
92-93 - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 06:53 PM EST (#475165) #
Has there been an MLB closer who went on to become POTUS?
uglyone - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 06:56 PM EST (#475166) #
I mean they gotta due diligence obviously but if it was just an isolated incident from an ultra competitive guy i'm sure they'd be fine signing him.
uglyone - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 07:06 PM EST (#475167) #
best news of the offseason:


Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
6m
Source confirms: Free-agent infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa in agreement with Red Sox. First:
@ChrisCotillo
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 07:17 PM EST (#475168) #
Rosenthal also says that the Pirates have emerged as an aggressive suitor for Valdez.

He lists the O’s, Braves and Padres as other teams interested in him, and that “other clubs, including the Toronto Blue Jays, could enter the mix if Valdez’s price falls to a level they deem acceptable.”

Doesn’t sound like a high likelihood he’ll end up in Toronto.
June Northey - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 07:47 PM EST (#475170) #
Love that Boston went from chasing Bo and Bregman to signing IKF. Hehehehe.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 07:54 PM EST (#475171) #
Are the NYY really as good as these projections maintain??? They just don't seem like the best team or close to it when you watch them. Boston I can see.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 08:01 PM EST (#475172) #
IKF signing with Boston is fantastic news. Hopefully they keep him all year so Atkins doesn't get tempted.
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 08:09 PM EST (#475173) #
The 10 WAR from Judge (or 7-8 WAR if you accept the projections) just vaults them into a great starting position. Add a strong rotation of Cole, Fried, Rodon, Schlittler; a bunch of competent-to-good position players; and a good closer in Bednar, and you have a pretty good foundation (even if their team defense can be sketchy at times and some of their position players are middling).

Also, they always seem to have some prospects available to trade for someone like Bednar at the deadline.

Channeling Buck Martinez, I don’t really enjoy their brand of baseball, though.

greenfrog - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 08:22 PM EST (#475174) #
I doubt the Red Sox are done yet. Probably they’ll add a stronger infield bat and IKF will end up on the bench.
uglyone - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 08:48 PM EST (#475175) #
Yankees look really good to me. Remember they didn't have Cole last year.
uglyone - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 08:56 PM EST (#475176) #
Valdez to Tigers

3 x $38
soupman - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 09:49 PM EST (#475177) #
I would have rather seen the team sign Valdez to that than Cease with the numbers they came in at, but I'm likely in the minority. I just don't like betting on upside on free agent pitchers. at some point they are what they are. Sure the Jays get to pay Cease for 7 years, but, like Berrios...will they want to?

I think they got burned (no pun intended last offseason) by Corbin and locked up a starter early. I don't dislike the move, just in a vacuum, I think most people would take Framber for around half the cost of Cease.
uglyone - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 10:03 PM EST (#475178) #
It's not an upside play tho.

Over the last 5yrs Cease hasn't missed a start, has put up 3.6war per season, with a 90era-, 80fip-, 88xfip-, and we're paying him $27m per year.
Glevin - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 10:24 PM EST (#475179) #
Good for the Tigers for finally spending where they needed to. Central divisions are a joke so even modest spending vaults you to the top. I'm mostly happy Valdez didn't go to Baltimore. The other options still on market (Gallen and?? ) are significantly worse.
June Northey - Wednesday, February 04 2026 @ 11:56 PM EST (#475180) #
Well, $38 per for Valdez sure wasn't a discount, but the 3 years was. Meanwhile Cease gets $27 per from the Jays. $11 mil less, but 4 more years and is 2 years younger. I like how that works for the Jays. If Valdez signed for closer to $30 mil per for 3 years I'd have been unhappy with the Jays, but $38 is a bit much imo. Good for Detroit though, as in the Central that should push them over the top in the last year they have Skubal.

Seeing that IKF got $6 mil from Boston blew my mind. This is a guy who was released in late August last year and I thought he'd be lucky to get a guaranteed contract and might need to settle for a minor league deal. Wow, I was wrong. Straw is probably getting those options picked up ($8 mil and $8.5 mil for '27 and '28) as those now look like the price for a decent backup. Wonder what Varsho is asking for now on a long term deal. My guess is he'll want at least $25 mil per, maybe $30 per for 5, when a few months ago I figured a $20 per for 4 might be do-able.
Michael - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 04:02 AM EST (#475181) #
Yeah, I think absent injury/ineffectiveness this year Straw is worth picking up for $8M even as a non-starter backup.

I wonder if you could get Varsho to take a 5 year $100M deal right now (counting the current year as one of the 5 and the current year salary as part of the $100M. I.e., replace the 10.5/1 year contract he's currently on with a 100M over 5 year deal). I'm optimistic that Varsho will hit much better in a full walk year and be unavailable at that price as a FA (unless the lockout scraps the FA class or something).
greenfrog - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 07:35 AM EST (#475182) #
The Blue Jays have had a good offseason, but it feels as though they failed to make a capstone addition (Tucker, Bo, Donovan, maybe Bellinger or Valdez) that could have made them favourites in the AL East and the AL generally.

The summer trade deadline is a long way away, so hopefully the team can overachieve again in the first half of 2026 and stay close to the top of the division.
Katie - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 09:00 AM EST (#475183) #
I don't think the Jays are favourites in the AL or outright favourites in the AL East, although I think that's close to a coin flip

However, I'm not sure I understand why Brendan Donovan is counted as a capstone addition, but Kaz Okamoto isn't, or why Valdez is counted as one, but Cease isn't.

Unless you mean they just needed to add more talent overall to the team, but I would argue there's lots of players that would fit that description in a vacuum, such as Ranger Suarez or Edwin Diaz.
SK in NJ - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 09:42 AM EST (#475184) #
The Jays added arguably the best SP on the market, and while they whiffed on Tucker (dodged a bullet imo if it was a 10 year offer), they signed Okamoto who projects as a well above average bat at 3B. The team does look one big bat away from possibly creating some distance among their peers, but it’s been a good off-season either way. With that said, there will be very little margin for error with how tough the division looks. The Jays won the division and the AL last season with their closer having a -1.1 WAR from May-September. They can’t afford to have that level of patience again most likely.
scottt - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 10:04 AM EST (#475185) #
Varland ran into the same type of problems.
Yariel Rodriguez vanished in the playoffs and he was outrighted to Buffalo but he was the Jays top relievers with 73 innings last year.

The pen will be the most interesting to watch this spring and what we'll see might not translate very deep into the regular season.
Mike Green - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 10:24 AM EST (#475186) #
It's early February, but my subjective take is that the club has improved greatly in run prevention from last year's full season numbers (798 runs scored and 720 runs allowed).  I have them at roughly 790 runs scored and 620 runs allowed.  This would give them a Pythagorean record of 99-63, and I'll be bold and say that this will be the first Blue Jay team to win 100 games in a season.  
Mike Green - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 10:37 AM EST (#475187) #
The pitching staff that they had in the playoffs was a lot closer to what they will have in 2026. The Jays outscored their opponents significantly in each of the playoff series and overall outscored them 99-75 in 18 games.  They allowed just over 4 runs a game against 3 of the best offences in the game, and I anticipate that they will be a little better than that over the season.  The offence was, of course, hot during the playoffs and won't be able to keep up that pace over the season.  But won't need to.  
dalimon5 - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 11:57 AM EST (#475188) #
You have to look at greenfrog's comments in context. He's been hammering on the idea of what the Blue Jays are missing to be at the top of the league, to be clear cut favourites in the AL. It went from "Jays are near the top and may close the gap to LAD" with Bo, Tucker and others on the market to "Yankees, Orioles, Mets and LAD all got better and the Jays probably got better."

I think the point is that the gap between the Jays and the teams behind them has narrowed and the gap between the Jays and the teams in front of them has widened. I completely agree with his points and feel that the Jays really could have become the behemoth of the AL if they could have some how landed Tucker or Bichette to finish their offseason and if that couldn't happen then Donovan (or Kwan oetc) became an acceptable Plan B upgrade to ensure the Jays improved more than they have at this present date.

There's too many question marks on the hitting side now to put Toronto as a favourite.

Santander - one dimensional player who might not hit HRs if still injured
Schneider - needs protection against certain pitchers, platoon bat
Clement - pretty much a platoon bat
Gimenez - platoon bat with every day bat upside
Barger - platoon bat with every day bat upside
Varsho - mediocre bat with elite power upside (small sample size)

So you have Vlad, Okamoto, Springer and Kirk as your core of offensive catalysts which is likely better than what you had last year if Santander is healthy. But not much better on the offensive side.
Glevin - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 01:48 PM EST (#475189) #
Jays aren't clear favourites but that's almost impossible in the AL East. Even if they added Tucker, they'd likely be favourites but only by a win or two. The AL East is just brutal with Yankees, Jays, and Red Sox being close to a toss up and Orioles not too far behind. I like the Jays position and think their major league depth and rotation depth give them better cushion for injury or poor performance than most teams. I don't think small upgrades really make sense at this point. ZIPS projects Jays to get 3+ WAR out of 6 positions and 2+ WAR out of the remaining 3 positions. It's just very hard to move the needle right now. I'm happy to go into the season with this team which can compete for the World Series.
dalimon5 - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 01:58 PM EST (#475190) #
You're right about the current state but if they added Tucker they clearly would have been ahead of the rest in a category for themselves. Adding Donovan makes them stronger compared to the NYY and BOS based on giving them the edge. Having him go to the Mariners just makes it more even between NYY, BOS, TOR and SEA.
greenfrog - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 02:45 PM EST (#475191) #
The AL East currently looks really close. I’ll take a closer look at the contending teams around prediction thread time. It’s worth remembering that there may be more moves to come this off-season.

One good thing about Valdez signing with Detroit — he didn’t end up with the O’s.

June Northey - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 02:50 PM EST (#475192) #
The wild card race will be ... well ... wild. 3 teams in the AL East (outside of the winner of the division) plus either Cleveland or Detroit (whichever doesn't win the division), plus 2 of Seattle-Houston-Texas. Although I'm expecting Houston to start slipping with Altuve 36, Correa and Walker on the wrong side of 30 as well, losing Valdez. They have a good deep pen, but from free agency their big get was Tatsuya Imai - damn good in Japan, but projected for sub 2 WAR here with an ERA in the 4's. They spent under $60 mil total in free agency and I didn't see any game changing trades on their list.

Texas' most expensive signing was Danny Jansen. Yep, that guy. $14.5 mil over 2 years. Under $25 mil total spent in free agency. MacKenzie Gore was a nice get for their rotation and Brandon Nimmo should help in the OF but cost Marcus Semien. So Texas and Houston might not be big factors this year, leaving the west to Seattle.

Cleveland was their usual - no big signings, very boring offseason for them. Detroit getting Framber Valdez changed them from boring to AL Central favorites. The rest of the Central could surprise, but that is exactly what it'd be if any crack 500 - a surprise.

So Jays vs NYY vs Red Sox vs O's with Tampa lurking as always. Shift any of them to the Central or West and they'd be favorites (well, not Tampa, but the rest). But at least 1 will not make the playoffs. Fingers crossed for good healthy through spring and then for a fast start.
greenfrog - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 04:22 PM EST (#475193) #
Right now my sense is that the Blue Jays are about an 88-91 win team. I think it's a good team but potentially a bit light at a few positions and in the bullpen. There are a few injury/age risks with Springer, Gausman, Garcia, among others.

I'll put my final prediction in the predictions thread, though.
dalimon5 - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 05:13 PM EST (#475194) #
Bo got away and there was at best an equivalent offensive addition made (Okamoto) to negate the offensive loss of Bo. No additional offense moves means this offense is largely the same for 2026 as in 2025 if all the players perform as they did last year which I am not expecting.

Varsho, Clement and Gimenez concern me from the offensive side, and I'm particularly concerned as a fan for RHP days where Schneider steps in for Clement at 2B.
Michael - Thursday, February 05 2026 @ 05:39 PM EST (#475195) #
On the plus side the Jays made some decent acquisitions and are arguably better than they were last year. On the minus side, some might argue the Jays are worse - especially on offense - than they were last year with the acquisitions not being enough to cover the loss of Bo.

While the Jays did win 94 games last regular season, they only won 74 in 2024, so the plexiglass principle (regression to the mean) as well as "law of competitive balance" (regression to the mean again) might suggest that there will be some step back by players/team where there keep everything the same expectation might be a good chunk less than 94 wins.

I think the Jays are in the mix with Bos and NYY at the top of the division with all teams within an expected win or two of each other. If the Jays would have signed Tucker - and also done all the other deals they did this offseason and all the other teams doing the identical offseasons - then I think there would have been a decent enough gap between the NYY/Bos and the Jays that you could say the Jays were the favorites, but it would still only be around 3 to 4 win gap. Also Jays + Tucker would still be behind LAD - Tucker, but it would have been much closer. As it is LAD are clearly the best team in baseball (but anyone can win short playoff series - but favorites are still going to be favored).
soupman - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 10:28 AM EST (#475198) #
A lot of credit last year went to Popkins. For those who put any stock in that thesis, there is some bad news.

The Orioles who looked like world beaters with a young core until last year fired their hitting coach prior to last season. A lot of fans blame the outgoing crew (it was sort of a committee from my understanding) for their struggles - especially Rutschman's. The new guy (Lind...Dustin, not Adam) sounds a lot like Popkins in his rhetoric, but I mean...I'm guessing everyone on the job market typically parrots what's in vogue. Oh, and they still employ Blue Jays Owner, Ryan Mountcastle. All that to say: I think the O's are on the level.

I also am not ready to count out the Rays. McLanahan is supposedly healthy, and the rotation with Rasmussen and Pepiot behind him is strong, even if their lineup seems weak...hasn't it always? While the Rays might not project at the same level of the rest of the division, they're clearly a contender if you put them in either Central division.

Should be lots of good games this year.
uglyone - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 10:40 AM EST (#475200) #
I get the regression to the mean argument, but it's really hard for me to see a drop in performance this year.

On paper Cease, Bieber (7 starts last year), Yesavage (3 starts), Ponce over Scherzer/Bassitt/Francis/Lucas just seems like too large an upgrade to me.

and on the hitting side Santander imploded last year and Varsho missed most of the year (gimenez also missed half the year).

And in general people seem to forget how many of the jays projected regulars last year completely imploded either by performance or injury or both....


From the projected starting roster last year:


CF Varsho 271pa, 123wrc+, 2.2war
LF Santander 221pa, 61wrc+, -0.9war
2B Gimenez 369pa, 70wrc+, 1.0war
3B Wagner 132pa, 86wrc+, -0.1war
RF Roden 113pa, 67wrc+, 0.2war


SP Francis 14gms, 149era-, -0.8war

RP Garcia 22gms, 95era-, 0.1war
RP Green 45gms, 137era-, -0.8war
RP Sandlin 15gms, 54era-, 0.1war
RP Swanson 6gms, 373era-, -0.2war


That's 40% of the projected starting roster that was either useless or significantly injured or both.

All credit to the front office again last year for quickly cutting their losses on most of these guys, and going with a pretty firm reset on many of these positions just a month into the season.
scottt - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 10:46 AM EST (#475201) #
The Rays won 77 games last year.
In 2024, they won 80 with 4 regulars having OPS+ under 80.
In 2023, they won 99, but they still had Wander Franco--for the most part.

This year, they have Steven Matz and Joe Boyle at the end of their rotation.

The Orioles are going to run 4 platoons, so that's 6 left bats against RHP but only 1 against LHP.
Their rotation is thin though.

soupman - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 12:30 PM EST (#475204) #
The Jays won 74 games in 2024 and their off season additions were Santander who was a negative value for them in the few games he did play and Scherzer who was hurt most of the year. I stopped counting the Rays out in February a long time ago.

Rogers and Bradish are excellent and a cut above anyone the Jays have imo. Maybe Rogers being elite was a one off, but the expected stats say he’s found something else.

I don't know how the division will shape out, I’m just saying that I don’t think the gap from TOR/BOS/NYY is as large as many fans suggest.
uglyone - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 01:32 PM EST (#475208) #
i'm not 100% sure how the Rays projected prior to last year, but i don't think they projected very well.

But the Jays definitely projected much better than a 77 win team prior to the 2024 season. That result was very much on the lowest end of expectations going into that year, so a bounceback wasn't too surprising.
soupman - Friday, February 06 2026 @ 02:57 PM EST (#475209) #
Last year ZIPS had them at 84-88 wins, iirc. Dan Szyborski said "Sum it all up and the Rays have a solid offense with a lot of depth and a real future, but I’m not sure the upside will be realized this season". So, add a year to that with a fully healthy rotation, and I think that is still a reasonable projection. Again, I don't think there's a large gap between any of the teams. I think their ceiling is higher than the top tier's floor, so I am not saying the Rays should be looked at as a threat to win the division as much as it would be less surprising to me if any other the presumed top flight teams end up finishing last.
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