First very early (too early) returns from the hitters.....


Asterisk = promoted
Double Asterisk = demoted


AAA

3B McAdoo (24): 71pa, 11.3b%, 21.1k%, .400bip, .333avg, .238iso, 162wrc+
C Stone** (24): 3pa, 0.0b%, 33.3k%, .500bip, .333avg, .333iso, 159wrc+
C Simoneit (29): 23pa, 13.0b%, 26.1k%, .429bip, .300avg, .150iso, 131wrc+
OF Pinango (24): 74pa, 10.8b%, 23.0k%, .333bip, .277avg, .185iso, 121wrc+

McAdoo and Pinango the two clear standouts for us in Buffalo, with McAdoo flat out crushing it so far while Pinango more just in the good category. Both still young enough to be legit prospect age. McAdoo has been crushing it ever since they sent him all the way back to complex after a horrible start last year. He was at a 146wrc+ over his last 300+pa last year.

A bonus with McAdoo is his pure athleticism - he's leading the Bisons in stolen bases so far, after leading the Fisher Cats last year with 34. This while being a solid power prospect. Don't rightly now where he is with the glove right now though.


1B Jimenez (29): 43pa, 11.6b%, 20.9k%, .308bip, .257avg, .114iso, 108wrc+
2B Mendoza (26): 71pa, 19.7b%, 21.1k%, .325bip, .241avg, .037iso, 103wrc+
C Hackenberg (26): 6pa, 16.7b%, 33.3k%, .333bip, .200avg, .200iso, 100wrc+
C Valenzuela (25): 17pa, 11.8b%, 17.6k%, .182bip, .200avg, .200iso, 86wrc+
SS Kasevich (25): 69pa, 10.1b%, 13.0k%, .250bip, .226avg, .145iso, 83wrc+
CF Schreck (25): 78pa, 17.9b%, 11.5k%, .173bip, .175avg, .143iso, 82wrc+

Middling results from this group. Eloy we only care about if he hits in the majors right now. Mendoza is kinda sorta semi-interesting as potential depth but not really. Hackenburg is just an injury replacement for stubbs.

We want to see better from the three 25yr olds here but the overall lines are fine so far and low-babip-depressed. I don't know how well Schreck can handle CF but he's getting plenty of time there with Clase injured.


1B Tirotta (27): 53pa, 11.3b%, 35.8k% .208bip, .174avg, .196iso, 76wrc+
2B Lantigua (28): 55pa, 9.1b%, 25.5k%, .188bip, .184avg, .224iso, 74wrc+
SS Rivera (25): 59pa, 11.9b%, 27.1k%, .206bip, .173avg, .154iso, 62wrc+
CF Clase (24): 38pa, 15.8b%, 26.3k%, .190bip, .161avg, .097iso, 55wrc+
CF Ward (26): 10pa, 0.0b%, 60.0k%, .500bip, .200avg, .200iso, 49wrc+
C Stubbs (29): 24pa, 8.3b%, 50.0k%, .300bip, .136avg, .000iso, -3wrc+
2B McCarty (27): 20pa, 5.0b%, 35.0k%, .250bip, .158avg, .000iso, -4wrc+
SS Fitzgerald (28): 11pa, 0.0b%, 63.6k%, .500bip, .182avg, .000iso, -9wrc+

Clase the only one to care about here but he's been injured for a couple weeks now.

With our system full of overage hitters at most every level, I'd really like to see most of this last group dumped sooner rather than later to make room for some deserving players who really should be up here at their ages. I especially would like to see them finally pull the plug on Tirotta, and the fact that McCarty is up here taking a sport for no good reason just annoys me.




AA

Age Appropriate

IF Coffey (22): 52pa, 9.6b%, 40.4k%, .280bip, .156avg, .089iso, 33wrc+
C Saum** (22): 3pa, 0.0b%, 33.3k%, .000bip, .000avg, .000iso, -100wrc+

Rough, rough start for Coffey.


Slightly Old for Level

1B Keys (23): 56pa, 14.3b%, 25.0k%, .423bip, .356avg, .400iso, 206wrc+
C Parker (23): 24pa, 25.0b%, 25.0k%, .583bip, .389avg, .000iso, 169wrc+
OF Burgos (23): 37pa, 18.9b%, 16.2k%, .292bip, .241avg, .034iso, 88wrc+
IF Harry (23): 27pa, 3.7b%, 37.0k%, .467bip, .280avg, .040iso, 67wrc+

The start from Keys is pretty awesome. Even the high babip doesn't really matter given how high his average is and how much power he's showing. There's no rush to promote him, but if he's anywhere near this level come midseason then moving him up (in place of a guy like Tirotta) should be in the cards.


Old for Level

C Stone (24): 9pa, 0.0b%, 11.1k%, .625bip, .625avg, .250iso, 251wrc+
IF Goodwin (24): 36pa, 19.4b%, 11.1k%, .333bip, .280avg, .120iso, 158wrc+
OF Bohrofen (24): 60pa, 13.3b%, 30.0k%, .269bip, .245avg, .367iso, 149wrc+
OF Micheletti (24): 60pa, 16.7b%, 20.0k%, .361bip, .300avg, .220iso, 142wrc+
C Planchart (24): 21pa, 19.0b%, 23.8k%, .500bip, .375avg, .000iso, 138wrc+

The two catchers are just tiny sample babip inflated lines so far, but the other 3 are all very good lines - from 3 overage prospects that I still consider potential legit prospects. There's a bit more urgency for these guys to be up a level imo, so i'd hope they make room for them in AAA in midseason if they're hitting anywhere near this level. I don't think any of these 3 guys are just throwaway filler guys.


Too Old for Level

OF Munguia (27): 36pa, 13.9b%, 8.3k%, .500bip, .481avg, .111iso, 191wrc+
1B Hornung (25): 61pa, 4.9b%, 26.2k%, .537bip, .397avg, .190iso, 162wrc+
OF Ward* (26): 27pa, 11.1b%, 44.4k%, .500bip, .250avg, .042iso, 73wrc+
IF Doughty (25): 39pa, 12.8b%, 30.8k%, .318bip, .206avg, .029iso, 54wrc+

just organizational depth at this point. not worth focussing on at this age unless they're doing something interesting in AAA.




A+

Young for Level

SS Nimmala (20): 57pa, 14.0b%, 24.6k%, .226bip, .208avg, .250iso, 118wrc+

Bumpy but overall very nice start to the year for a guy who's still young for this level. Still the same good patience and power with questionable contact skills package, but still a very good overall package.


Age Appropriate

1B Chirinos (21): 38pa, 5.3b%, 39.5k%, .412bip, .265avg, .265iso, 135wrc+

Nice start for Chirinos but issues with strikeouts and babip inflation.


Slightly Old for Level

UT Toman (22): 48pa, 16.7b%, 25.0k%, .500bip, .368avg, .211iso, 198wrc+
IF Beltre (22): 43pa, 7.0b%, 23.3k%, .207bip, .179avg, .103iso, 43wrc+
C Duran (22): 12pa, 0.0b%, 33.3k%, .000bip, .000avg, .000iso, -100wrc+

Rocket start from the no-longer-switch-hitting Toman. Though the sky high babip will be tumbling down very soon so we'll see how those numbers settle. Still legit encouraging though.

Anyone know Duran's injury?


Old for Level

OF Casey (23): 5pa, 20.0b%, 20.0k%, .500bip, .333avg, .000iso, 200wrc+
IF Latta (23): 55pa, 20.0b%, 21.8k%, .333bip, .273avg, .159iso, 143wrc+
OF Hernandez (23): 53pa, 13.2b%, 26.4k%, .375bip, .267avg, .111iso, 108wrc+
UT Gleed (23): 41pa, 9.8b%, 17.1k%, .357bip, .294avg, .000iso, 99wrc+
UT Freethy (23): 59pa, 25.4b%, 28.8k%, .148bip, .091avg, .023iso, 57wrc+

Like at every level here's another group of decently prospect-ish guys who are old for the level and you'd hope to see move up midseason. Though to be fair only Latta here is actually hitting like a guy who could be promoted.

Personally really disapponted that Casey was injured in game 1. I thought he had a chance to come out of nowhere this year and turn into a legit prospect. Hopefully the injury isn't too serious.


Too Old for Level

OF Vallee (25): 4pa, 0.0b%, 25.0k%, .667bip, .500avg, .250iso, 240wrc+
UT Cunningham (25): 73pa, 12.3b%, 28.8k%, .375bip, .310avg, .397iso, 198wrc+
C Sharp (24): 23pa, 4.3b%, 26.1k%, .400bip, .316avg, .211iso, 115wrc+
UT Orf (24): 38pa, 23.7b%, 44.7k%, .333bip, .138avg, .069iso, 77wrc+
OF Scannell (24): 35pa, 11.4b%, 42.9k%, .333bip, .172avg, .069iso, 58wrc+
C Gilliland (24): 31pa, 9.7b%, 32.3k%, .294bip, .185avg, .037iso, 57wrc+


Weird thing here is that Cunningham is crushing it, and i personally kinda think he still has potential - but the team seems to think so too, because he's actually leading the team in plate appearances - by a lot. They clearly want to be giving him lots of playing time so they don't consider him just org depth. But he's 25 in A+ which makes it hard to believe they consider him a real prospect. So i don't really know what's going on here.

and I wouldn't ever write off any catchers even when they're too old for the level so Sharp still worth keeping an eye on.



A

Very Young for Level

IF Sanchez (18): 13pa, 0.0b%, 23.1k%, .300bip, .231avg, .000iso, 36wrc+

Nice to see him up here at this age. Refreshing.


Young for Level

IF Parker (19): 61pa, 19.7b%, 21.3k%, .375bip, .298avg, .255iso, 186wrc+
OF Bullard (19): 55pa, 9.1b%, 36.4k%, .240bip, .196avg, .261iso, 102wrc+

That's about as great a start as we could have hoped for from Parker. Showing across-the-board hitting skills at a very high level. I wish there was less of a gap between his babip and average but that's a tiny nitpick.

Bullard also off to a nice start as an underager but with some contact issues.


Age Appropriate

IF Ramon (20): 42pa, 14.3b%, 21.3k%, .318bip, .273avg, .273iso, 175wrc+
OF Bonilla (20): 33pa, 6.1b%, 33.3k%, .474bip, .323avg, .129iso, 134wrc+
IF Gaxiola (20): 52pa, 5.8b%, 25.0k%, .233bip, .217avg, .261iso, 122wrc+

Ramon having one of the best starts of anyone in the system, with no holes anywhere on the line and a shocking amount of power for a little guy. His defensive chops seem for real too.

The other two having good starts but Bonilla's seems mostly babip-fuelled, while Gaxiola's line actually looks very good all around other than a low babip.


Slightly Old for Level

OF DeLosSantos (21): 28pa, 7.1b%, 39.3k%, .400bip, .231avg, .000iso, 59wrc+

eh.


Old for Level

C West (22): 33pa, 3.0b%, 18.2k%, .560bip, .469avg, .156iso, 213wrc+
OF Licourt (22): 50pa, 22.0b%, 48.0k%, .300bip, .162avg, .270iso, 138wrc+
IF Snow (22): 52pa, 15.4b%, 15.4k%, .286bip, .238avg, .095iso, 111wrc+
C Saum (22): 16pa, 0.0b%, 43.8k%, .250bip, .143avg, .071iso, 20wrc+
C Cresswell (22): 27pa, 3.7b%, 59.3k%, .222bip, .083avg, .000iso, -19wrc+

Not much to care about here. Catchers are always worth tracking tho. Licourt showing power but with silly K numbers.


Too Old for Level

UT Williams (25): 38pa, 15.8b%, 21.1k%, .409bip, .345avg, .241iso, 181wrc+
IF Pinto (23): 14pa, 21.4b%, 14.3k%, .250bip, .273avg, .273iso, 174wrc+
OF Scannell* (24): 7pa, 28.6b%, 28.6k%, .333bip, .200avg, .200iso, 148wrc+
OF Smith (23): 44pa, 13.6b%, 20.5k%, .207bip, .162avg, .054iso, 54wrc+

I'm hoping this is a very brief rehab stint for Pinto who has already hit great in A+ two years running. Maybe more of a weather thing. TBH he should be in AA this year.

Thanks UO. McAdoo has a bit of a weird statcast so far - 85th% in launch angle sweet spot, 71st% barrel, but 10th% in Average EV and 12th% in Hard Hit rate. Middle of the pack in many other categories, but the result is his wOBA is almost 100 points higher than his xwOBA. This likely means he's taking quality swings and making quality contact, over hard contact. Regardless, good to see for a guy who struggled mightily in AA the first half of last year.

For Pinango, he's crushing the ball, but extremely tentative in the zone, and even when he swings in the zone, he misses a lot. If his approach changes, he'll make it to the majors, though whether that's with us is another question.

Parker's statcast keeps going up - now 98th percentile average EV, 82% barrel rate, 98% hard hit rate. Great BB and K% rates. The only knock on him so far is his tentativeness. It shows that he has a good, patient approach, but his 1st% Z-Swing and 16th% swing means he's giving away a lot of free strikes.

Even better news is he has been crushing it against both fastballs and breaking pitches, with only change-ups giving him struggles.

Licourt's statcast is hilarious. His power data is amazing, but he can't hit a breaking ball to save his life. And by can't hit a breaking ball, I mean he has a .000 average on breaking balls so far this season with a 65% whiff rate.

Alright last one from me, but checking in on the AAA pitchers.

I think Chad Dallas legitimately is the most impressive arm we have at AAA (not that there's much competition). Compared to pre-TJ, his sweeper has 5 more inches of horizontal break, combined with almost 100 RPM more spin. It's taken an average pitch and turned it into a weapon. His curveball doesn't sweep as much, which helps differentiate between the two. I think he has the best chance of being a back-end starter for us.

I wouldn't rule Harrison out, though the outcome is less likely. He's gone from primarily a 4-seam/sweeper guy to an even distribution of his sweeper, curveball, and cutter behind the 4-seamer. The cutter and sweeper have steadily improved.

Yariel is still a work in progress when it comes to consistency but he has all the tools to make it back to the bullpen. His slider hasn't been spinning as much, but he's made significant improvements on his splitter. Since his rough season debut where he walked 3, he has 2 BB to 15 K in 7.2 IP.

The move to the bullpen has helped Macko - an extra 2 MPH on the heater. His slider is still inconsistent, either getting whiffs or getting crushed.

Little getting time in AAA will be good for him. They are letting him throw the 4-seamer and slider more to try to work out the kinks. He seems to have dropped the cutter entirely.

Sean Keys at AA and Nolan Perry in A ball have been named players of the week in their respective leagues.

Kelekin, where did you find that Licourt info on facing breaking balls?

Thanks

Hey Gerry, it's one of the apps provided by Thomas Nestico (tjstats.ca). Some of the data is free, some paid.

For Licourt, see if this data is viewable: https://tjstats.ca/player/yorman-licourt-827326/

Thanks Kelekin. I didn't realise he had such detailed stats.

Also add Daniel Guerra and Tucker Toman to the player of the week awards.

His stuff is presented really nicely, especially his batter/pitcher summaries. I give him a lot of credit for what he's put together, so I'm happy to support his content (plus, he's Canadian).

Thanks for the link Kelekin - Yariel has the highest Wiff% in AAA at 57.1%, but is 3rd in K% with #2 being good ol' Trevor Richards (now with the Phillies).

I had drafted a post about McAdoo, but looks like I never posted it. Anyways, for the reasons Kelekin points out, I'm not getting excited by McAdoo's early season performance. On the positive side, his 90% exit velocity is not nearly as low as his average EV.

If you look at his hits, there's about a half-dozen infield singles on weakly-hit balls which are pulling up his overall slash line.

His overall contact rate is up even as he's moved up a level, so I wonder if this is a concerted effort to make more contact at the expense of impact.

You can watch Nimmala's homers on his milb.com player page.  Easy power both pulling and going the opposite way.  I haven't seen centerfield power yet, but I'm sure it's there.  If he can hit .260, he's going to be very good.  

McAdoo's max EV hit 110 do far and he's got hrs doubles and triples so it can't all be soft.

And he's got very good speed which should help beat out infield singles - especially if IFs are playing back respecting his power.

This is a guy who has shown good power at every level, with a dip only after coming to the jays, but even that seemed to be fixed after his complex stint last year.

With PIT:

A (21): 114pa, .208iso
A+ (22): 248pa, .224iso
AA (22): 118pa, .221iso

Trade to jays

AA (22): 143pa, .137iso
AA (23): 132pa, .067iso (pre-complex stint)
AA (23): 362pa, .202iso (post-complex stint)
AAA (24): 71pa, .238iso

It's not overwhelming power, but it's legit good power at every level, sans the one big dip there.

Still very early obviously but a lot of promising starts from a lot of bats.

Keys was #4 on BA's Hot Sheet this week.

VERY early but COULD be the start of a helluva comeback story if this isn't a fluke.

Tucker Toman so far: .368/.500/.579/1.079

Shoulda given up switch hitting 2 years ago.

Without looking I'm going to guess he has a robust BABiP

Most switch hitters are natural right handed hitters who tried hitting from the left side because of the obvious advantage but keep hitting from right because they've had years of practice doing so.
Toman doesn't seem to have any power from the right side.

Ugly, it's obviously not all soft contact, but McAdoo's overall impact has been surprisingly weak this season. There isn't a player in the majors who maintains even average power with an average EV in the vicinity of where McAdoo's stands right now in AAA. In fact, it's lower than every single qualified MLB hitter last year.

So the question isn't really whether he can have sustained success at that level, but whether it's a slump, bad luck, clustering or otherwise unrepresentative of his underlying skills and he can bring it up. There are reasons to be optimistic - his contact rate is up this year, and he has a track record of above-average power. But I would put no stock in his early-season production since it just doesn't match up with the underlying contact metrics.

Gabe do you think you could snapshot a list of all his individual EVs this year?

Good result from Troy Guthrie. I think he is on a pitch limit 4IP only 54 pitches.

Sean Keys sees your posts about the short RF wall in NH so he goes oppo in Reading tonight.

Vancouver is still playing but they scored 16 so far tonight, Arjun is 3/5with 2 doubles, Toman is 2/3 with a triple, and Moroudis threw 3.2 shutout innings striking out 4 and (importantly) walking none.

Even though it is too early to think of promotions, I have started thinking about that.