If Springer and Barger are back next week, who gets demoted? Eloy and Lukes are the two obvious candidates right now, they need a big next six games to try and save their spots.

We're approaching the point at which he gets optioned.

Lauer is already a reliever.

Around the horn on a late game start for the Blue Jays...

A good start for Bassitt tonight: 5 shutout innings. Unfortunately for Baltimore, Cleveland broke open a 0-0 tie with a Schneemann grand slam in the seventh. It's now 4-0 Guardians.

Boston and Detroit are tied 0-0 entering the seventh.

The Yankees are winning 2-1 after six innings.

Early prediction: Cam Schlitter (who I touted last year and earlier this year) is going to win the AL Cy Young Award in 2026. What has he done so far this year? He has a 1.95 ERA (0.78 FIP and 1.73 xFIP), and in 27.2 IP, he has allowed 17 hits and 0 HR. He has a shockingly good 2:36 BB:K ratio.

Sosa DH’ing is funny - in the saddest possible way.

I like your updates gf, saves me from having to visit other sites. I don't think your pick for Cy Young in the AL will make it through the season injury free.

Why would you use one of your best leverage relievers as an opener?

Not sure if bats could have looked more feeble first time through.

Yeah, who knows about Schlittler. But he’s only 25, so maybe he can stay healthy, throw around 200 IP, and win the award. BB:K ratio is one of the best predictors of success, and his is otherworldly. He throws 98 and doesn’t walk anyone. 98th percentile pitching run value and 100th percentile FB run value on Savant. He’ll have to keep working on his secondary stuff, though.

Also, just to be cheeky invoking the comparison I floated early in 2025, here are Vladdy and Ben Rice’s stats in 2026:

Vladdy: .323/.436/.431 (1 HR) 150 wRC+

Rice: .339/.459/.746 (6 HR) 229 wRC+

I was so wrong about the Straw acquisition.

Is Varsho becoming an injury-prone player?

Becoming?

Safety squeezing in the 3rd/4th inning is becoming a thing with this team. On the one hand it’s a terrible strategy. On the other hand, it’s Sosa tonight so probably a good idea. Weird.

Per chance, Lauer has recovered his strength?

You can’t really blame John Schneider for doing anything he can to break up the offensive deep freeze.

The bats look terrible right now. Heinemann just struck out on what otherwise would have been a HBP. Okamoto is struggling to hit secondary stuff and fastballs off the black. Clement is all over the place, swinging at everything.

Man, baseball is just no fun when the bats are colder than the surface of Neptune*…

(I am presuming that Neptune is the coldest planet, or indeed has any kind of surface)

These Arizona uniforms look like softball jerseys. BAD softball jerseys… and I actually like the colour combination. A shame.

Knew soreness for Varsho which isn't good. He was like one of only 3 Jays who I thought might get ever get a hit too.

it seems like a big crowd considering the Phoenix Suns are hosting the NBA play-in tournament down the street.

Hard to imagine this lineup scoring 4 runs, Lauer has been ok but his stuff still seems off from what we saw last year.

Okamoto has to challenge that 2-0 strike call, I think.

Sure they can't but but they also can't field!

Well, Magpie did say there would be pain (as there is every year).

I just didn’t realize there would be so much physical pain (Ponce, Kirk, Barger, Springer, Varsho, Vladdy). I thought he meant emotional pain!

There had to be bad karma to offset all the good karma from 2025.

Not sure how long they can afford to keep playing Okamoto every day. It’s getting worse not better. Not sure what the issue is but it looks like he’s cheating to hit velocity and then anything off speed wipes him out.

The problem is that you can't sit Okamoto because Jays don't have anyone. They're hitting a White Sox cast-off fifth! It's just a mess and there really isn't anything you can do except wait to get healthy.

They could help themselves by making the basic defensive plays. They have lost a few games this year by failing to execute on relatively easy plays.
Offensively, it always starts with forcing the pitcher into the strike zone. The team is chasing way too much (balls and difficult-to-hit strikes).
Did Sanchez injure himself? There was the dive onto his wrist the other day, and last night at the plate he seemed to be wincing and grabbing his side as though he had an oblique issue.

they can obviously sit Okamoto if they want tho. Clement at 3B with Schneider or Sosa at 2B. and of course McAdoo crushing the start to AAA.

but they're not gonna give up on Okamoto yet anyways.

I'm not freaking out over Okamoto yet.

Since there is no protection for him and he's prone to push himself (and chase in these circumstances), I would move Vlad to top of the order until Springer and Barger are back. Give him more at bats and force the other pitcher to give him more pitches or put him on base. This approach worked for Bautista under Gibbons, and I don't see many other options. It also gives him a better chance to come up to bat with Gimenez and Clemente on base compared the Lukes/Schneider.

Option Lukes when Barger returns. I'd actually go super aggressive for the next 5 games to try to win 4/5 and get closer to .500 ball with key players returning soon. The Jays can come back to Toronto with Yesavage, Springer and Barger on the cusp with a close to .500 record or they can be 7-10 games under .500.

Vs RHP
Guerrero Jr 1B
Schneider/Jimenez DH
Sanchez LF
Clemente SS
Varsho CF
Okamoto 3B
Gimenez 2B
Straw RF
Heineman/Valenzuela C


Vs LHP
Guerrero Jr 1B
Schneider LF
Clemente SS
Jimenez DH
Varsho CF
Okamoto 3B
Gimenez 2B
Straw RF
Heineman/Valenzuela C

They gave Okamoto $60M. He's not being benched anytime soon even if he continues at a 60 wRC+ pace for a few months. His bat speed and hard hit rates are still above average, and he's experiencing MLB pitching/velocity for the first time. He should get a little bit of rope here. I think the bigger issue for him is that he's -2 in DRS and -3 in OAA in a couple of weeks of playing 3B. If he's not a 3B long-term (or even short-term) then it really hurts his value to the team and puts more pressure on his bat.

Again, way too early to get too concerned, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Apparently Lukes has dizziness and vertigo which makes me less horrified of his start but also, why not IL him and let him recover? For those of us who remember Ken Dayley, we know vertigo can be disastrous for your career.

There’s a big gulf between saying the Jays need to consider whether they can afford to pencil Okamoto into the lineup everyday and giving up on him. He certainly needs to be given time to adjust but the Jays are supposed to be a contender this year and, while not desperate, things are getting rocky for the Jays. I’m somewhat optimistic about his offense but the longer term issue is complicated by his defense. If he’s really just a 1B and DH then he’s a poor roster fit. If you’re going to grit your teeth and play a below average to poor defender at 3B then the player has to hit quite a bit to make that work. Barger’s return will be the point when hard decisions need to be made on the daily.

gold glove inning from vladdy.

So Lukes has vertigo and has had trouble driving, but its OK for him to stand in against guys throwing 95 mph at him?

Yeah, seems insane to have Lukes playing.

"I can't see and I keep falling over."

"Sounds rough Nathan, you're hitting second today."

Only 1 K for Scherzer.

Those milestones are often really hard to reach.

Well, in the spring they thought it was allergies.
Once they figured it was vertigo they put him on meds.
Maybe they should have backed him up a bit at that point.

This is the most 2025 Jays game that they’ve played in a long time.

pull him.

Hoffman looks terrible again.

lol.

DFA this bum already.

I will actually be surprised if he lasts the season.

To boldly go and discover frustrating new ways to lose…. These are the voyages.

Absolute disaster. second straight game where he can't find the zone and comes in nibbling.

I've been more patient than anyone (other than John Schneider) because Hoffman was generally pitching well and two of the three blown saves had asterisks of a sort) but THIS?

This I can't defend. Gotta lower his leverage until this command/control gets sorted out.

If Hoffman is gonna stay, he should only pitch in blowouts. The guy is brutal, but I'm glad this happened early so he shouldnt get any high leverage innings for the rest of the season. Fisher can move up in leverage.

lol.

DFA this bum already.

Ok, ok. I admit defeat. DFA him. I assume Brendon Little is raring to go.

Schneider is currently managing a AAA-calibre lineup so it's hard to blame him for too much, but demoting your struggling closer to an even higher leverage spot is just horrendous managing.

Schneider was a genius last year and terrible this. Most of his questionable moves came up aces last and are blowing up in his face this. Maybe it’s just all dumb luck.

Hoffman was a -1.0 WAR pitcher for the last 5 months of 2025, pitched in mostly blowouts in the post season except for essentially 3 high leverage spots (when the Jays were either leading by 3 or less or the game was tied) and blew 1 of them (the biggest one). The fact that they put him back in the closer role to begin with is astonishing to me. They deserve everything they get for that decision.

Man this is on Schneider. Just looks like the injuries have ruined Achneiders ability to adjust. Looks like Hoffman is done and now Schneider is simply making things even harder for himself. He has no offense, some how he's managed the bullpen foolishly...mostly by playing Hoffman and Little like he has.

Fischer, Rogers then Varland... use those guys 789...stop with the "I got my guy's back" managing with Little and Hoffman. This season is blowing up in managers face.

Hoffman cost Schneider a World Series, and pretty soon he’s going to cost him his job if he doesn’t bury him deep in the pen where he belongs.

Occasionally, I imagine a world in which Jeff Hoffman never failed his physical with Baltimore and the Jays signed Carlos Estevez instead and are currently the defending World Series champions and Varland is currently closing, as Estevez is hurt.

Blech. As soon as Hoffman went 2-0 on Carroll, I called it.. "grand slam coming". He's just not playable in tight situations.

A phantom IL trip makes most sense to me. Jays can't just keep running Hoffman out there in key spots like this. Not that the Jays would have won anyway, they can't score more than 1-2 runs a game, but it's demoralizing.

Schneider saying post game that he plans to continue using Hoffman as his closer while "he goes through it." I imagine the players have privately lost confidence in Hoffman and soon will on Schneider if this keeps happening.

Scherzer was good. Okamoto with a nice at bat to get the tying run. Vlad is okay just needs some protection.

Had Scherzer not walked the first batter or kept him at first, he would have been a lot better.

I thankfully did not watch. Dan Shulman needs to turn down the intensity in his calls; I find he’s now treating regular season games with the same anxiousness in his cadence as he did during last years pennant race and playoff run. It’s a little off-putting to hear every single play of every game. I could deal with a ratcheting down of the excitement.

But the Jays score so infrequently - every hit and run needs to be treated with that level of excitement:)

Someone on Bluebird Banter suggested using Hoffman as the opener for an inning. It’s actually a good idea, I think. It would be a lower pressure situation and remove the possibility of him blowing up the game in the late innings.

Agree on Schulman and I've noticed it as well as my partner. Buck Martinez helped to colour and tone down the "fake radio voice calls" of Schulman. Now with Siddal there is less contrast overall to balance each side out. There's also a bit too much "insight," for my liking. Nothing wrong with channeling your inner Scullly, Dan.

Hoffman as an opener is an interesting idea. Put Vlad lead off and Hoffman opener.

Putting the team behind the 8-ball from the start is a bad idea. Either Hoffman is ready for high leverage or he is not. If he is not, leaving him as the closer or demoting him to pitching in 3-4 run margins is preferable to bringing him in to tied ballgames.

kinda don't know why Giménez isn't in the top 2 the way he's been rolling this month. Fastest regular on the team, been producing better than either Lukes or Clement so far

Hoffman as Jay:

81gms, 4.77era (116era-), 4.74fip (112fip-), 3.48xfip (83xfip-), -0.3fwar, -0.6ra9war, -0.4awar/65


He was never a closer before being a jay, and our manager simply decided that he HAS to be the unquestioned full-time closer for us no matter what.

it's pretty crazy tbh.

I'm not even close to jumping on the Schneider bashing bandwagon because I think 90% of successful managing happens out of our sight. However, I do think that Schneider's carefully cultivated cohesion from last year - that "everyone has everyone's back" feel good mentality has sort of trapped him a bit this year. Hoping struggling pitchers pitch their way out of it, running Lukes out there while he's dealing with vertigo (assuming it was disclosed) and such like.

At some point that meritocracy thing has to trump loyalty.

Relievers this year + last year, in order of leverage index when entering the game:


Hoffman: 77.1ip, 1.72li, 4.77era (116-), 4.74fip (112-), 3.48xfip (83-), -0.3fwar, -0.6ra9wa, -0.4awar/65
Little: 72.0ip, 1.37li, 4.13era (100-), 3.56fip (80-), 3.39xfip (81-), 0.8fwar, -0.3ra9war, 0.2awar/65
Rogers: 88.0ip, 1.31li, 1.84era (45-), 2.93fip (73-), 3.32xfip (79-), 1.4fwar, 2.8ra9war, 1.6awar/65
Garcia: 21.0ip, 1.31li, 3.86era (95-), 3.85fip (91-), 3.86xfip (92-), 0.1fwar, 0.1ra9war, 0.3awar/65
Varland: 83.2ip, 1.29li, 2.58era (63-), 2.86fip (68- ), 2.91xfip (69-), 1.8fwar, 1.7ra9war, 1.4awar/65
Fluharty: 59.2ip, 1.10li, 4.53era (111-), 3.74fip (88- ), 4.08xfip (98- ), 0.4fwar, -0.2ra9war, 0.1awar/65
Fisher: 60.2ip, 0.92li, 2.37era (58- ), 2.95fip (69-), 3.39xfip (81-), 1.0fwar, 1.4ra9war, 1.3awar/65
Nance: 39.1ip, 0.76li, 2.97era (72-), 2.29fip (53-), 2.96xfip (70-), 0.8fwar, 0.3ra9war, 0.9awar/65

Having Hoffman pitch an opener inning isn't about putting the team behind the eight-ball from the outset. It's about using him in a completely different context to see whether he performs better away from the type of late-inning, high-leverage situations in which he has been regularly melting down. After the grand slam yesterday, Hoffman got three straight outs, two of them via the strikeout. Maybe this is at least partly a psychological issue that requires mixing things up in a substantial way, at least temporarily.

Nelson had had a decent start to the season so this sure is nice.

Lukes looks back.

lots of nice swings from him the last few games.

It's great to see a good offensive start.
The thing Inhate about this kinda game is how the Jays suck at spreading offense around. A run here ir there foe Gausman or Cease could be 3 or 4 wins.

Okamoto and Lukes with our first two extra base hits with the bases loaded this year - our 2nd and 3rd hits of any kind with the bases loaded this year.

This is a good start!

There's Hoffmann in the first!

Again - if Jeff needs a break, putting him into a tie game and potentially costing the team from the outset is not a good idea. Let him pitch as an RP in games with 4+ margins.

yeah just put Jeff in regular middle relief for now. don't overthink it. I just hope we didn't break him completely.

Not sure Eight is Enough for Hoffman.

two best swings from Okamoto that we've seen since very early on.

Using Hoffman as an opener might or might not be a good idea, but none of us knows for sure how it would work out. Openers are a recent phenomenon, to be sure. I know that new or unusual ideas can sometimes be unsettling to older/recalcitrant commenters.

Huge win because it feels like just getting through this period is key.

Wow. The Mets have lost 11 in a row and are 7-15 and 7.5 GB in the NL East.

After today's 0/4, Bo is hitting .217/.255/.283 with a 5.1 BB% and 23.4 K% and a subzero WAR.

Most likely Bo will turn it around, but his current offensive numbers are quite similar to (actually a bit worse than) his 2024 stats.

I don't have any experience with team psychology but I speculate that it must be helpful to occasionally play a game that's not close or tied and tense all the way through

Yeah, not much question the Jays are off to a tough start, but today was a LOT of fun, especially in the first. But for guys the Jays chased I doubt any would've made a massive impact - Bo is at a 54 wRC+ at 3B but his defense is a net positive surprisingly (0.6 runs to the positive at FG). Tucker has been OK with a 111 wRC+ at the moment (256/347/390 sure doesn't feel that good) and a slight negative on defense (-0.2 in RF). Bregman is at 81 for wRC+ (ugh), Bellinger off to a hot start with a 141. Torres a few wanted - 96 wRC+. The trade target we just saw play against us (Marte - 84 wRC+).

So basically the 'winner' would've been getting Bellinger who I don't think the Jays were too serious about. Tucker would've been nice but if he was doing that here we'd be hearing all kinds of complaints I'm sure. Far too soon to judge any player too strongly - just look at what Lukes did today after me blasting him in the story here. After the Springer comeback last year I will default to the Jays knowing what they are doing, even if it seems weird at times to me (and everyone here). I'll still complain (hey, it is fun to do that) but will rest easy knowing that there are many things I don't know.

So the Jays are playing pretty much worst case with ... deep breath .... IL pitching: Berrios-Bieber-Estrada-Francis-Ponce-Yesavage-Garcia; IL hitting: Kirk-Barger-Santander-Springer

So basically 4 starters we were counting on, 2 strongly counting on (key parts of WS rotation). Then you add in 4 key parts of the offense all out, including the one guy we all felt was hardest to replace in Kirk. Yet with all of that the team is still just 4 1/2 out of first, 2 1/2 out of a WC slot. I'd say that is pretty good with other starters still slumping too (Scherzer averaging 4 IP per start, 7.16 ERA for example).

There's no such thing as worse case.
Depth is very important.
April baseball is always all over the place.
It's nice to win as many of those games as possible but they are not predictive of the season.

Well, worst case would be the team plane going down and crashing into their AAA team's hotel I guess. But realistically losing 4 key regulars and 2 key starting pitchers plus the top 2 backup starting pitchers, plus 2 of the depth starting pitchers, plus a guy you planned on being your setup man before mid-April is pretty damn bad. Hard to think of a worse injury setup at the start of a season for the Jays ever and I went to a game in '78 so I've been around awhile.

After the last WS appearance, in 1994, they had Ward (closer) go down for his career (4 games in '95 was all that was left), Delgado - the hotshot rookie - was sent down after a killer start (275/373/765 after the game of April 20th) and a horrid slump (177/340/228 the next 29 games he played) and wouldn't get another real shot until 1996. Joe Carter was a sub 1 WAR player (but 10th in MVP voting), Sprague and Borders both negative WAR, all 8 guys used after regular hitters were negative WAR (!). Just 7 starting pitchers used - but only 2 had 100+ ERA+'s (Hentgen & Stottlemyre) while 3 were ineffective but healthy (Stewart, Guzman, and Leiter). 3 guys did well in the pen but that was it (Hall, a AAA guy made into the closer, Castillo a solid LH, and Woody Williams who never got respect here). In 1995 it fell apart completely (2 guys with 3+ WAR, Leiter who left as a free agent after the season, and Cone traded mid-season for crap). The offense died (Carter negative WAR, Alomar sulked after the Jays quit mid-season, Olerud had a bad year for him, Green sub 1 WAR, Net WAR for hitters was 6.9).

This team isn't that bad. but yeah, things can collapse quickly post-WS and right now they are on that path, but Vlad is here for many many more years, Kirk is here long term and should return at some point, etc. 1.9 bWAR from hitters so far, on pace for 15.4 before tonight so better than the '95 team by a lot but only half of last years 30.9 from the hitters. I still have lots of hope.

this is annoying.

Team Pitching

xFIP-: 85 (#3)
FIP-: 93 (#10)
ERA-: 108 (#24)
ra/9: 5.22 (#26)


as is this:

Team Hitting

Based Empty: 94wrc+ (#14)
Runners On: 104wrc+ (#19)
With RISP: 72wrc+ (#29)

Owen Hill
@_ohill
·
3h
Kazuma Okamoto has been devastated by breaking balls so far. He's got a .186 xBA against them and is whiffing at them more than 41% of the time... But he hit one for a home run yesterday.

The adjustment is here.


https://x.com/_ohill/status/2046245457127416158?s=20

yeah Mike and Hoffman had 20% of his flyballs leave the park last year too.

hard not to think this is the pressure of the role just not being something he's very good at handling.

I think at this point, Hoffman is shell-shocked, and afraid of leaving any pitch in a hittable spot. Which is leading him to nibble further and further out of the strike zone, with the result that the better hitters are able to lay off the nibbles, and hit the meatball out of the yard.

Which is why I like gf's radical idea of starting him for an inning or two for a few weeks.

Anyone else a bit shocked at Garrett Anderson's passing?

Not yet. Waiting on the toxicology report.

I'm thinking he's one of many middle aged men with clogged arteries.

Varsho is back in the lineup today, with Straw and Schneider in the corners against the lefty.  

FYI: Edwin Diaz out until mid-season it seems. The closer we'd have LOVED to add who went to (of course) the Dodgers has loose bodies in his right elbow. Ouch - sounds painful. Imagine if the Jays had signed him - might have 1 or 2 more wins but also would now be cursing that injury bug.

In other news, Twins have called up the prospect traded with Roden for Varland. Kendry Rojas.