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This should be the easiest of the remaining series for the Jays. The A's are 57-87 and have lost a lot of players to the IL. Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson are all on the IL. The Jays start Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano...good Jays pitching and a depleted A's lineup should equal two easy wins and they just need to add the third on Wednesday.

SCHEDULE

Monday: Cease vs Lopez

Tuesday: Soriano vs Perkins

Wednesday: TBA vs TBA


At this stage of the season the big question is which hitters will step up and carry the load for a while. The Jays have been taking turns doing that but one or two players need to take their turn.

Jays at Athletics: Sept 7-9; Sweep Required | 152 comments | Create New Account
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hypobole - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#484016) #
PCA hit his 40th HR Sunday, the 1st Cub since Derreck Lee in 2005.

How many times has a Blue Jay hit 40 since 2005, and who did it?
JB21 - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#484018) #
Joey x2, EE x3, Donaldson, Vlad?
JB21 - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#484019) #
Guardians lose. Rangers/Astros both have the day off.
scottt - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#484021) #
Very similar to the Cleveland/Detroit series.
It's like Cleveland is the sponsor for those early pay out gaming ads.
They fall behind early on and then plate a bunch of runs in the 9th.
Came just short 6-4 today.
hypobole - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#484022) #
Jose x3, EE x2, Josh, Vlad plus 1 more.

Hint: 3 of the 5 had an Athletics commonality.
92-93 - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#484023) #
The last one must be the best one-year signing the Jays have ever made.
hypobole - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#484024) #
I can't think of a better one
June Northey - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#484025) #
For WOW 1 season signings I'd go Dave Winfield (seen as the key part of the '92 WS team emotionally to make them winners), Marcus Semien with his WOW 2021 7.1 bWAR season nearly pushing the Jays to the playoffs is easily the best single season signing stats wise (he is up to 50 WAR now, a near HOF career but I think he needs those final 293 hits to get to 2000 and 33 HR to get to 300 to make it, a likely no logo guy for the HOF, most years in Oakland, most WAR in Texas, wonder if he'd be worth bringing back for next year? Nah, 75 OPS+ this year at 35, odds are low he can get that higher gear back but maybe).
June Northey - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#484026) #
Oh, and yes, he hit 45 that year.
June Northey - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#484027) #
Was thinking about best leadoff for the Jays. Did a FanGraphs filter, 2002-now - the highest wRC+ from leadoff was last year at 130, just being 2021's 128. Best OBP was 2006 at 374 while 2009 372 was close. 2020 was 367, 2002 355, 2003 350 is it for 350+ OBP leadoff. 3 sub 300's (2024, 2012, and 2017 at a horrid 285). For pre-2002 I'd need to dig deep into BR and I'm not in the mood for that right now.
pooks137 - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#484028) #
My guesses for the holdout 40-HR hitter were Frank Thomas (topped out at 26, cut second year), Matt Chapman (never hit 40 in his career, personal best as a Jay was 27) & Justin Smoak (came close in '17 with 38, but no Athletics connection).

I eventually guessed correctly on my 4th try with the help of the hints above.

Even though it happened not that long ago, I had completely forgotten that Mr. Thrice-Bronze-Position-MVP-Runner-Up had sent 45 over the wall that photo-finish year.

June Northey - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#484029) #
For other spots...

4th: 161 wRC+ in 2003 (mostly Delgado), 141 in 2015, 139 in 2016. with 2019 the worst at 72 (Randal Grichuk got the most PA there at 187 with a 56 wRC+).
9th: 102 wRC+ in 2018 (only one to crack 100), 37 in 2006 (WOW - Russ Adams got 135 PA with a 24 wRC+ that year, John McDonald had a 50 in 278 PA, Aaron Hill a 9 in 89 PA, Edgardo Alfonzo 30 in 43 PA, everyone else sub 15 PA).

That was an ugly 9th place 'hitting' in '06 wasn't it?
92-93 - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#484030) #
I cringe when I read “two easy wins”. May it be so.
June Northey - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#484031) #
Fingers crossed it goes well so I can sleep at a reasonable hour tonight. And that my college daughter doesn't call me at 3 AM again (she had a great night and just had to talk about it with me).
uglyone - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#484033) #

Lineup with best wRC+ vRHP

1. CF Bateman 140
2. DH Springer 119
3. LF Sanchez 119
4. RF Lukes 116
5. 3B Smith 108
6. C Alejandro 105
7. 1B Okamoto 100
8. 2B Clement 95
9. SS Gimenez 80

B. UT Guerrero 82
B. UT Schneider 85
B. OF Straw 88
B. IF McAdoo 49
B. C Valenzuela 96

X. UT Keys 67


vLHP

1. CF Bateman 133
2. 1B Guerrero 126
3. 3B Okamoto 133
4. C Alejandro 114
5. LF McAdoo 107
6. DH Springer 90
7. 2B Clement 84
8. RF Straw 83
9. SS Gimenez 75

B. UT Sanchez -1
B. UT Schneider 58
B. OF Lukes 33
B. IF Smith -32
B. C Valenzuela 77

X. UT Keys 45




2yr stats

vRHP

1. CF Bateman 140
2. DH Springer 153
3. 2B Smith 113
4. C Alejandro 113
5. RF Lukes 110
6. 1B Guerrero 109
7. LF Sanchez 110
8. 3B Okamoto 100
9. SS Gimenez 80

B. UT Schneider 127
B. UT McAdoo 49
B. OF Straw 89
B. IF Clement 85
B. C Valenzuela 96

X. UT Keys 67


vLHP

1. CF Bateman 133
2. 1B Guerrero 146
3. 3B Okamoto 133
4. SS Clement 116
5. C Alejandro 114
6. DH Springer 111
7. 2B McAdoo 107
8. RF Straw 88
9. LF Schneider 88

B. UT Sanchez 23
B. UT Smith 32
B. OF Lukes 61
B. IF Gimenez 60
B. C Valenzuela 77

X. UT Keys 45
uglyone - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#484034) #

🌊🌊🌺 Hula Girl 🌺🌊🌊
@wildwahine808
·
Sep 6
BREAKING: Airline passenger who had to be duct-taped to seat after n-word meltdown ID'd as Arizona realtor…another MAGA racist
Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
1m
Anthony Santander will begin a rehab assignment with the triple-A Buffalo Bisons on Wednesday

Plan is for him to DH his first game and then begin playing the outfield. He'll need several games to regain timing before Blue Jays activate him.
uglyone - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#484035) #
heh only meant to post one of those tweets. you guess which one.
uglyone - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#484036) #
Arden Zwelling
@ArdenZwelling
·
1m
Trey Yesavage (knee) threw a 34-pitch bullpen in Dunedin, Fla. on Monday. Next step for him is two innings vs live hitters on Thursday.

Shane Bieber (shoulder) extended his flat ground catch play to 75-feet on Monday in Sacramento.


So that would mean if all goes well then Yesavage gets a rehab start on the weekend, and then might be on track to pitch in the bigs after that.


Apparently they're sketching out Bieber as about one week behind yesavage.
chris_jays - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#484037) #
So potentially Santander comes up September 18 for Texas?

Who goes down? McAdoo or do they pull the plug and DFA Sanchez?
SK in NJ - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#484038) #
I would guess it’s Sanchez that goes for Santander.
TamRa - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#484039) #
it seems unlikely Trey would come right back to the majors without a rehab game, Tuesday in Buffalo most likely as that would put him on regular rest to start on the 20th
TamRa - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#484040) #
Lopez is a trap.

Before July 10 his ERA was 7.04 (53.2 IP)
Since it's 2.28 (51.1 IP)
greenfrog - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#484041) #
3-0 green light for Vladdy…groundout
Nigel - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#484042) #
Pretty poor first few innings. Walking leadoff hitters, failing to advance runners, errors, bad challenge and bad failure to challenge.
Glevin - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#484043) #
Ugly game reallyso far. Just a lot of poor play and decision making and just couldn't stop A's from running wild.
uglyone - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#484044) #
it's past their bedtime.
TamRa - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#484045) #
They could (and should) do what the Guardians did to Detroit this weekend...but they probably won't.
TamRa - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#484046) #
See? Don't bunt. Hit doubles.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#484047) #
Gimminy Clutchhit
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#484048) #
jiminy crickets wtf was that gimmy
Nigel - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#484049) #
Tough watch tonight. This reminds me of games before the Break.
chris_jays - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#484050) #
Santander can’t come soon enough…

Vlad is a tough watch again
James W - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#484051) #
He is GIM.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#484052) #
Gimminy Clutchhit!
TamRa - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#484053) #
what a high contrast game. Multiple examples of frustrating sloppiness* and, to be fair, they should lose....

and yet...


*travel and fatigue probably involved here
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 12:50 AM EDT (#484054) #
Please don't have both cease and varland lose this for us.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#484055) #
Ouch.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#484056) #
They had no business being in that game with the way they played but that’s salt in the wound to lose like that.
Michael - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 03:03 AM EDT (#484057) #
Was a really nice play by Vlad to get the lead runner, too bad it was all for not. A lot of crushed balls for HR, but I guess Sacramento is 2nd only to Coors in terms of pro-offense park factor.

The baserunning was really the difference with the steals for Oakland and the picked off Jay being quite the contrast.
Gerry - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#484058) #
I just watched the highlights/lowlights.

Did Cease cost himself the Cy Young last night?

Cease's vulnerability to steals cost him as two runs came after double steals of second and third.

The Jays were sloppy. There was the botched rundown, Ernie's error and Gimenez getting picked off. I am not sure if Okamoto had made a better throw to Kirk would Bolte have been out at home.

The Jays were out of challenges in the ninth when Varland should have had a ball changed to a strike but the challenges were used up.

Two infield hits and two walks cost the Jays the game in the ninth.
Glevin - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#484059) #
One of the worst losses on the season. Just such a winnable game and Jays messiness just cost them.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#484060) #
It’s almost like they’re allergic to being over .500. Some of their worst losses have been while trying to get over the hump.
Glevin - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#484061) #
Since July 1st, Ernie has a 63 WRC+. He leads the Jays in PA in that period. Think it's probably time for a Smith, Clement, McAdoo, Gimenez rotation through the MI spots rather than just running Ernie out there every day. Also, would love Keys to get regular time vs RHB. His numbers in AAA were fantastic and Jays need to get offense but Schneider hasn't even been able to move Vlad down the lineup so can't imagine he won't play him everyday.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#484062) #
Schneider has proven that he’d rather lose with his guys than deal with the unknown. He’s not benching Clement, or moving Vlad down in the order, or taking a -1.1 WAR (from May-Sept) Hoffman out of the closer role in 2025, etc. The Jays either make the playoffs with Clement and Straw playing everyday or they’ll miss it. Schneider will be fine with either scenario. Expecting big lineup shakeups is not going to happen.

Either way, losses like last night will be looked at very closely if the Jays end up missing the playoffs. Absolutely should not have lost this game.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#484063) #
The offence has been fine with Bateman, Kirk and Okamoto leading the way.  It would obviously help if one of Guerrero Jr., Springer or Keys contributed the way that any of them can, and it does appear that the tried and true are likely to be the ones who will be given the chance to do so.  

The big issue is the pitching and getting through until some of the wounded return.  The club scrambled and moved Cease up a day but that didn't work out well (although Cease has pitched about as well on 4 days or 5 days rest over his career).  At the end of a season, a pitching coach might very well form the opinion that despite the overall numbers, 5 days rest would be better.  Soriano has pitched noticeably better on 5 days rest than 4 days and even better than that on 6 days or more.  I think what they are trying to do is get quite a few innings out of Miles on Wednesday, which I can understand.  Schneider/Walker have a really tough job figuring out what is the best thing to do.  
Nigel - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#484064) #
For me, not close to the worst loss of the season as they never remotely looked like they were playing well or deserved to win. However, if the test is in which loss did they "shoot their own foot off with a double barreled shot gun" then definitely near the top of the list on the season. Today's a new day.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#484065) #
Can't really blame it on the offense. They scored 5 against even with a pretty hot pitcher on the bump. This one comes down to two Cy contenders blowing it. Really hurts.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#484066) #
The only other loss of the top of my head that was on par with last night was the game Hoffman blew in Baltimore. Otherwise I can’t think of a worse 2026 loss than last night. Had your ace on the mound against one of the worst teams in the sport (with a massive amount of injuries to their offense) with less than 20 games to go in a season where every loss is magnified, and you blow it with bad pitching and sloppiness. Jays fans were cursing the Tigers over the weekend for blowing games against a better team while the Jays do this with Cease on the mound against the A’s. This season is infuriating because the AL is so bad and none of the WC3 contenders really deserves a playoff spot and the Jays still can’t seem to take advantage of it.
pooks137 - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#484069) #
Since July 1st, Ernie has a 63 WRC+

I looked at Clement's awful Aug stats.

One thing that stood out was that Clement was hitting a lot more popups than all previous months. And hence his average launch angle was about double than the rest of the year. This also fits the pattern I've been seeing on the broadcast, particularly with men on.

Other than that, nothing else really stood out. His BABIP was down about 70 points. He had a little bit more soft contact. His ISO was about half its usual rate (only 3 XBH all month).

Couldn't find monthly splits for chase rates. But his BB/K numbers were in line with his better months.

Not sure what exactly can be gleaned from Clement's struggles. But it certainly seemed more like a quality of contact problem rather than any glaring changes in his approach.

TamRa - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#484070) #
I'm guessing fatigue was a big part of the messiness yesterday. Strategically I think if I was Schneider I'd insist that you never challenge a pitch through the first 5 or 6 innings.

Looking at the schedule ahead, they do have a chance to move up the extra day for Cease (and Soriano). The cost of that choice is to have Arrighetti pitch in the Baltimore series (as opposed to Detroit) rather than Soriano. They just have to weigh that trade-off.

If you do that, Arrighetti lines up with the next off day and can be skipped if you want, then if you do get Yesavage back you have one other game to figure out (Arrighetti, Lorenzen, etc) in the middle of the series at Baltimore.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#484074) #
Tonight's lineup has Sanchez at DH and Keys on the bench. Someone please make sense of this.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#484075) #
Is that our first back2backs this year?
chris_jays - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#484076) #
Nice to see the back to back…

Honestly no clue why Sanchez is on the team, let alone starting.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#484077) #
Smith up to a 96wrc+ on the year now, not far off the 101 and 113 of his last two years.....with plenty of upward regression available on his .262babip still.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#484078) #
Sanchez doesn’t look good at the plate right now. Maybe next time try Keys against a RH starting pitcher? He might bring some more energy/production to the lineup.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#484079) #
More challenge problems for the Blue Jays.
pooks137 - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#484080) #
Smith up to a 96wrc+ on the year now, not far off the 101 and 113 of his last two years.

The Adam Macko trade was definitely one of the biggest headscratchers at the deadline.

It doesn't seem like the Rangers were particularly enthralled with Macko considering they immediately sent him down to AAA.

So it would seem it was more Toronto driving the trade with greater interest in taking on Smith as a reclamation project. And a 1st year player in Macko was the price of getting it done.

I personally aren't that bothered with the loss of Macko. Prospects that get converted to relievers become a lot less exciting in terms of future value unless they are immediately elite (or at least contributing MLB regulars like Fluharty or Fisher).

Still interesting as to why the Jays gave up on Macko fairly early on after his first exposure to the MLB level & tons of control left. With only an erratic Brendon Little & a rehabbing Joe Mantiply in the pipeline as 2nd lefties.

Obviously the front office, the coaches & the minor league development staff had seen enough over the years since the Teoscar trade that they were comfortable enough that his value was low enough that it could be exchanged for a preview & an option on non-tendering a hard-luck Josh Smith.

Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, September 08 2026 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#484082) #
Leaside Cowboy is a little bored with 1980s heavy metal.  Do we have any suggestions for other music?
TamRa - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#484083) #
Kenny Wayne Shepard maybe?
TamRa - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#484084) #
Sad to report that the Rangers are pounding Seattle.

At least they gained a game on Baltimore.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#484086) #
Good time to check out different genres. Stuff you may have never heard.

Salsa - Harlem Youth "Welcome to the Party"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0rja1U2BQg

New Orleans Jazz - Sidney Bechet "Blues My Naughty Sweetie Gives To Me"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtkAax6ntaE

Paris 1930's/40's Jazz - Reinhardt/Grappelli "Minor Swing"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTlo809EIlo
92-93 - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 06:41 AM EDT (#484088) #
A bullpen day in front of an off day might actually be the Jays 3rd best "starter". They should have 9 arms available today and even Miles in case of emergency. Lorenzen is on 4 days rest.

Tonight's Cle @ Bal game features a 15-4 Griffin vs. the 5-15 Baz and Vegas considers it a tossup.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#484089) #
Obviously, they were not trying to move Macko. They were trying to acquire Smith.
Many clubs trade guys as they reach arbitration.
Slugging left bats have more value in ALE than in ALW, just because of the parks.

Nigel - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#484090) #
One of the more interesting offseason things to follow will be what role the team envisions for Miles in 2027.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#484091) #
I won't be too upset if they try to make him a starter, though i do sometimes have visions of Varland/Miles being our new Henke/Ward for years to come.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#484092) #
His injury history might dictate one role or the other (depending on which role they feel taxes his arm more). The decision is more important that just his individual future - making him a starter probably allows them to avoid spending on further starters but probably requires finding another leverage arm (or the reverse).
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#484093) #
Nigel, I was wondering the same thing. Is he a starter? A closer? High leverage reliever? He's been absolutely dominant out of the pen.

I actually came here to talk about him, because we really haven't talked enough about his season.

Been waiting for FG to update, but BRef has and they have Miles behind only Cease and Varland in value. His ERA as a reliever is now under 1.70. Last night was his 18th Shutdown vs only 3 Meltdowns.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#484094) #
It's a bit of a miracle that he's showing he can be a dominant reliever. Almost seems like pushing their luck to try and go for more. While he has four pitches, only 2 of them grade as plus this year (Sinker, Curve), while the 4 seam and the slider have been below average. And i think they might have learnt to appreciate how having a lockdown pen this year can really boost the team even when almost everything else goes sour a bit.

They do have Cease, Soriano, Yesavage, Ponce lined up to start next year already. You would think they have at least some hope the likes of Perry, King, and maybe Bloss being able to contribute as starters next year. And I don't know that even if they try Miles as a starter that that would make them comfortable forgoing not signing a top FA pitcher if there's one that fits. Or even re-signing a guy like Bieber if the price is right.


But yeah if they think he can be a starter, still makes sense to try it i guess.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#484095) #
As a reliever, Miles's Sinker has graded as 14.8 Runs Above Average. No other reliever in baseball has a pitch that has graded higher.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#484096) #

The 8th inning belongs to Rogers.
Bref credits Miles with 2.2 WAR and Rogers 1.6.
That's because Miles has tossed over 87 innings and Rogers less than 65.

I don't think they will pencil him as a starter next year.
They might stretch him in spring training just in case and go from there.
It really depends on what happens over the next 2 months.
It's possible they feel he needs a long break and hold him back next year.

Things can change quickly.
Maybe Tiedemann can be a solid contributor next year. Or not.
That's just one example.

The key thing is that the roster has 13 pitchers in April and the reserve can only hold 14 guys--the 40 roster--and right now that's 9 pitchers.

uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#484097) #
If the starters ever get healthy, I think Miles might steal that setup role from Rogers tbh.

or, at the very least, Miles gets used in the Varland role from last year - high lev fireman no matter which inning, and multiple innings if necessary.

except this time they have a Varland as the closer closer, instead of a Hoffman.


come on get healthy, starters. i want to see this bullpen at full strength already.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#484098) #
My "off the wall" idea for Miles is actually tied to Tiedemann and both of their arm histories and the need to limit innings. One idea is using them as tandem starters but that doesn't seem to fit the team's philosophy. How about using them throughout the year as starters (not alternatively but say first half of the season/ second half of the season) and then moving them into leverage reliever roles once they are not starting? Unconventional for sure.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#484099) #
Isn't the bullpen at full strength right now? Miles has been used in very high leverage his last two appearances. I agree that it would be extremely valuable having an arm like his to deploy whenever you need it, leaving Rogers in the 8th inning role.

I also expect Bieber to be back next year (if the Jays want him), as I can't really see a team being willing to give him a big multi-year deal at this point.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#484100) #
So FG finally updated. Miles's sinker now 15.7 RAA, the best pitch by any of the 150 relievers listed..

But his curve isn't just above average, it's the 2nd best by RAA of the 58 relievers who throw a curve.

As a RP even his 4 seamer is slightly above average.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#484101) #
yeah the bullpen is technically at full strength --- aside from the fact that they keep on having to plan and save for bullpen days twice every 5 days.

This is forcing them to use the likes of Sewald and Little in a bit higher leverage than they'd ideally be used in i think.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#484102) #
They do have Cease, Soriano, Yesavage, Ponce lined up to start next year already.

Yeah, but remember how many guys they had lined up to start this year?
Nigel - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#484103) #
And assuming that Ponce is actually going to be a solid MLB starter is something that hasn't been tested yet. I'd guess that the Bieber option (or equivalent) and keeping Miles in the pen as the most likely outcome.
TamRa - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#484104) #
Given what happened this year I think they stretch Miles out as a SP next spring with the flexibility to adjust based on circumstances and with the knowledge that he can do the high-leverage gig if that's where they need him most.

I have this conception of them learning from the "Miles Model" and using it to handle Tiedemann's buildup next year. Ultimate destination dictated by results. Primary difference is that Miles has never shown control issues and Ricky will need to smooth that out next spring.

The thing that lingers in my mind is the '24 bullpen. They came into the season with largely the same group that had been a beast in '24 and then Romero, Swanson, and Mayza all went sideways at once.

On paper they should be mostly set already for the '27 'pen
Varland
Rogers
Miles (if not starting
Fluharty
Fisher
Little (2.37 ERA since he came back, 30 K in 19 IP)
Tiedemann

They could throw money at a veteran reliever (I confess that I lust after Morejon) if they think they're more inclined to start Miles, and there's an unfilled spot there but the 8th guy is usually best filled by players who can move up and down like Dallas.

You have highly regarded guys like Guerra, Stanifer, and Coleman who could either ride that shuttle or seize the job and run with it.

You just have to hope things don't get weird again.
Katie - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#484105) #
I don't see any reason that Miles would, or should, "steal" the 8th inning role from Rogers.

Rogers has been excellent this year and has allowed one homer. He is doing exactly what he was paid to do, which is keep the ball in the ballpark, not walk many batters and induce weak contact. He allows a lower hard-hit percentage than Varland or Miles, fwiw.

Rogers works well in tandem with Varland, too, as on the days he ends up giving up some singles as opposed to ground ball outs, Varland's excellent K percentage gives them a good chance to escape the inning unscathed.

Meanwhile, Miles has been incredibly effective in his versatile role where he can do multiple innings, like last night, or pitch one inning. He has a lower K Percentage, so he doesn't work quite as well following Rogers, and he works better in a more versatile role, as he can pitch 1.2 innings or something if a starter needs relief in the sixth, as opposed to Rogers who is more closely a one inning guy.

I don't see any reason to deviate from having Rogers and Varland as the 8th and 9th inning guys, with Miles as the ace reliever who can be deployed in any slot, and then trusting Schneider to make adjustments in the game, as necessary, such as deploying Fluharty in a random 8th inning if you have 3 lefties in four batters or Miles if you have some hitters who appear particularly susceptible to his pitch mix.
mathesond - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#484106) #
I could see Miles being used the way Cleveland used Andrew Miller in the mid-2010s - a dominant reliever who could go multiple innings if necessary.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#484107) #
I just think the temptation of two dominant rubber-armed 100mph relievers like Varland and Miles taking care of 3ip per game all by themselves many nights could take over.

Rogers is great but just a guy you maybe have to be a little more careful/selective with.

At least i'd be tempted to want to use Miles and Varland against the top of the other team's order in the late innings.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#484111) #
This year vRHP

1. CF Bateman 80pa, 131wrc+
2. DH Springer 319pa, 117wrc+
3. LF Sanchez 267pa, 118wrc+
4. C Alejandro 177pa, 106wrc+
5. RF Lukes 323pa, 115wrc+
6. 1B Okamoto 421pa, 103wrc+
7. 3B Smith 174pa, 113wrc+
8. 2B Clement 384pa, 93wrc+
9. SS Gimenez 333pa, 80wrc+

B. UT Guerrero 413pa, 83wrc+
B. OF Straw 134pa, 88wrc+
B. IF McAdoo 39pa, 49wrc+
B. C Valenzuela 181pa, 96wrc+
B. UT Keys 43pa, 67wrc+

X. UT Pinango 148pa, 112wrc+ -- Cameron 4pa, 192wrc+
X. OF Clase 17pa, 180wrc+ ----- Barger 24pa, 0wrc+
X. IF Urias 24pa, 182wrc+ ----- Sosa 72pa, 18wrc+
X. C Ross 5pa, 158wrc+
X. UT Schneider 64pa, 85wrc+


vLHP

1. CF Bateman 45pa, 122wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 141pa, 126wrc+
3. 3B Okamoto 151pa, 140wrc+
4. C Alejandro 88pa, 123wrc+
5. LF McAdoo 46pa, 107wrc+
6. SS Gimenez 129pa, 87wrc+
7. DH Springer 145pa, 84wrc+
8. 2B Clement 182pa, 83wrc+
9. RF Straw 159pa, 80wrc+

B. UT Sanchez 32pa, -1wrc+
B. OF Lukes 76pa, 41wrc+
B. IF Smith 30pa, -34wrc+
B. C Valenzuela 68pa, 77wrc+
B. UT Keys 3pa, 44wrc+

X. UT Schneider 76pa, 57wrc+ --- Pinango 32pa, 29wrc+
X. OF Clase 8pa, 98wrc+ -------- Cameron 21pa, 22wrc+
X. IF Urias 35pa, 82wrc+
X. C Ross 0pa
X. UT Sosa 45pa, 52wrc+ -------- Barger 4pa, 4wrc+



2 Years vRHP

1. CF Bateman 80pa, 131wrc+
2. DH Springer 756pa, 152wrc+
3. 2B Smith 616pa, 115wrc+
4. C Alejandro 539pa, 113wrc+
5. LF Sanchez 689pa, 110wrc+
6. 1B Guerrero 934pa, 109wrc+
7. RF Lukes 708pa, 109wrc+
8. 3B Okamoto 421pa, 103wrc+
9. SS Gimenez 616pa, 80wrc+

B. UT Keys 43pa, 67wrc+
B. OF Straw 287pa, 89wrc+
B. IF Clement 785pa, 84wrc+
B. C Valenzuela 181pa, 96wrc+
B. UT McAdoo 39pa, 49wrc+

X. UT Schneider 163pa, 127wrc+ - Cameron 14pa, 94wrc+
X. OF Barger 437pa, 109wrc+ ---- Clase 98pa, 96wrc+
X. IF Urias 286pa, 97wrc+ ------ Sosa 476pa, 86wrc+
X. C Ross 5pa, 158wrc+ --------- Stubbs 2pa, -100wrc+
X. UT Pinango 148pa, 112wrc+ --- Santander 166pa, 70wrc+


vLHP

1. CF Bateman 45pa, 122wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 300pa, 146wrc+
3. 3B Okamoto 151pa, 140wrc+
4. C Alejandro 232pa, 117wrc+
5. 2B Clement 369pa, 115wrc+
6. DH Springer 294pa, 108wrc+
7. LF McAdoo 46pa, 107wrc+
8. RF Straw 305pa, 86wrc+
9. SS Giminez 215pa, 68wrc+

B. UT Sanchez 107pa, 23wrc+
B. OF Lukes 129pa, 65wrc+
B. IF Smith 151pa, 31wrc+
B. C Valenzuela 68pa, 77wrc+
B. UT Keys 3pa, 44wrc+

X. UT Schneider 204pa, 88wrc+ - Pinango 32pa, 29wrc+
X. OF Barger 93pa, 66wrc+ ---- Clase 39pa, 56wrc+
X. IF Sosa 185pa, 91wrc+ ----- Urias 103pa, 53wrc+
X. C Stubbs 1pa, -100wrc+ ---- Ross 0pa
X. UT Santander 55pa, 32wrc+ - Cameron 53pa, 29wrc+



3yrs vRHP

1. CF Bateman 80pa, 131wrc+
2. DH Springer 1225pa, 132wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 1492pa, 129wrc+
4. LF Santander 651pa, 116wrc+
5. C Alejandro 825pa, 106wrc+
6. RF Lukes 785pa, 113wrc+
7. 3B Okamoto 421pa, 103wrc+
8. 2B Smith 1067pa, 112wrc+
9. SS Gimenez 1077pa, 84wrc+

B. UT Sanchez 1111pa, 113wrc+
B. OF Straw 290pa, 89wrc+
B. IF Clement 1092pa, 89wrc+
B. C Valenzuela 181pa, 96wrc+
B. UT McAdoo 39pa, 49wrc+

X. UT Pinango 148pa, 112wrc+ --- Sosa 724pa, 79wrc+
X. OF Barger 625pa, 100wrc+ ---- Clase 136pa, 99wrc+
X. IF Schneider 479pa, 105wrc+ - Urias 340pa, 97wrc+
X. C Ross 5pa, 158wrc+ --------- Stubbs 2pa, -100wrc+
X. UT Keys 43pa, 67wrc+ -------- Cameron 114pa, 24wrc+


vLHP

1. CF Bateman 45pa, 122wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero 439pa, 152wrc+
3. 3B Okamoto 151pa, 140wrc+
4. C Alejandro 332pa, 111wrc+
5. 2B McAdoo 46pa, 107wrc+
6. SS Clement 514pa, 103wrc+
7. LF Santander 235pa, 101wrc+
8. DH Springer 439pa, 97wrc+
9. RF Straw 306pa, 86wrc+

B. UT Smith 292pa, 76wrc+
B. OF Lukes 143pa, 64wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 387pa, 66wrc+
B. C Valenzuela 68pa, 77wrc+
B. UT Sanchez 222pa, 30wrc+

X. UT Sosa 306pa, 100wrc+ ------- Cameron 139pa, 94wrc+
X. OF Barger 130pa, 52wrc+ ------ Clase 67pa, 59wrc+
X. IF Schneider 342pa, 87wrc+ --- Urias 158pa, 75wrc+
X. C Stubbs 1pa, -100wrc+ ------- Ross 0pa
X. UT Keys 3pa, 44wrc+ ---------- Pinango 32pa, 29wrc+
soupman - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#484112) #
Elly De La Cruz is in his final pre-arb year and the Reds look absolutely rudderless this year. I'm not familiar with their system, and of course the Central is always up for grabs, but with him not signed long term and putting up another great year - how good would he look in Blue Jays blue?

mathesond - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#484113) #
He can throw 105 mph...
92-93 - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#484114) #
Really pathetic from Vladdy there. Sure would've been nice having Kirk up instead.
blu-j - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#484115) #
I’m not looking up the numbers, but that seems like at least the 1,000th time this season Vladdy has grounded into a killer double play, give or take.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#484116) #
As I said earlier in this thread, John Schneider would rather lose with his guys than do something different with an unknown result. He could have pinch hit for Straw in the 4th with a RHP now on the mound, but Straw's his guy. Vlad has been batting 2nd/3rd all season despite being one of the worst players in the league since May, and predictably doesn't come through in a big spot when the lineup easily could have been shuffled to move Kirk and Okamoto up.

This type of managing is probably a good thing for players, but it's not going to squeeze as many wins as possible out of a flawed team.
Glevin - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#484117) #
Vladdy ranks 23rd in WRC+ for qualified 1Bman. If he were even an average 1Bman, Jays are easily in playoffs.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#484118) #
I don't know where you get the rubber-armed from. Miles is coming off TJ.
He didn't pitching in 23. Threw 7.1 innings in 24 and 8.2 in 25.
Because he's a rule 5 pick, they can't shut him down unless it's to put him on the IL.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#484119) #
I don't know why Straw is needed in a PCL park.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#484120) #
Vladdy has a 683 OPS at the moment.

I can’t statistically validate this, but would the Blue Jays currently be in a playoff position if he had posted even a 750 OPS? Probably?
mathesond - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#484121) #
I would depend on what games you are converting outs into positive plays, I suppose.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#484122) #
Varland has no business pitching here.
TamRa - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#484123) #
2 on? GIDP of course
Bases empty? Deep fly ball because why not.

Game has a very first-half vibe.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#484124) #
yeah, even just a 'subpar' season from vladdy would have the jays in the playoffs.

uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#484125) #
Jonah Birenbaum
@birenball
·
7m
Since integration, only 51 players have managed a wRC+ of 137 or better over 2,000+ PA's through their age-26 seasons.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of them.

That group, in their age-27 seasons, put up an average wRC+ of 142.

Median wRC+? 152.

Guerrero's wRC+ is currently 93.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#484126) #
gut/nut punch.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#484127) #
I find this game to be way more upsetting than Monday. Getting shut out by the worst pitching staff in the sport (5.7 r/g) is very 2026.
Cracka - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#484128) #
Agreed; there were a lot of non-competitive at-bats today, with Vlady's GIDP in the 5th as a prime example. If Cleveland and Texas both lose, it softens the blow a little bit... but they'll still need to win 10 or 11 of their last 15 games, which feels challenging based on the current state of the team. The bullpen has been absolutely elite over the past six weeks and it's a real shame to see that go to waste.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#484130) #
I don't know if I am alone in this, but I would have pinch-hit Keys for Ernie with 2 outs in the ninth.  Facing a hard-throwing right-hander and needing a home run to tie the game, Keys would have been my choice.  

I generally am content with Clement as an everyday second baseman, and to my eye, he's been better defensively since the first couple of months of the season.  Over his career, he's been above average in the middle infield and I felt that a couple of the errors that went his way early in the year were more poor receiving from Vladdy.  But he's not the guy I want up facing a hard-throwing right-hander with 2 outs in the ninth and needing a home run to tie the game.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#484131) #
It was unrealistic that the Jays, with a negative seasonal run differential, were going to keep playing above .600 ball. Even really really good teams don't do that very often. They are going to need help from here forward. Tomorrow is a new day.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#484132) #
We're back to the coughing baby offence they've had for most of the year.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#484133) #
Yes it is unrealistic, Nigel. Notwithstanding the realism, they need to play better than that the rest of the way if they’re going to make it
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#484134) #
Varland pitched because tomorrow is an off-day.

They just can't get over .500.
Glevin - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#484135) #
Clement is just not an everyday player this year and it's an easy place for Jays to upgrade next season and Ernie would be ideal as a utility infielder. It's not like Jays are replete with great hitters and Ernie isn't terrible or anything so he should still be playing regularly, but Jays would be better if they sat some guys occasionally.
TamRa - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#484136) #
Unless they want to spend big on Brandon Lowe, the best plan B for 2B next year might be to give Smith a clean shot at winning the job outright
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#484137) #
Agreed Nigel. The team was playing .650 ball (24-13) for an entire month plus after bottoming out to 48-58 before that stretch. This team still ranks dead last or close to it in most of the important offensive categories. They have 2 starters, or 3 at best depending on which version of Max shows up. It's just not a good team. Hopefully they can still squeeze into a playoff spot at the end, but as you said they will need help.

As far as Clement, the Jays will have a difficult (actually easy, but difficult for them) decision in the off-season. They clearly need to upgrade 2B, but Clement has started for two consecutive seasons, is popular, and the manager loves him. It might be a scenario where they either start him again due to 2025 success or trade him. I don't think they reduce his role.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#484138) #
The good  news is Texas lost, and Baltimore just put up an 8 spot in the 3rd to lead Cleveland 8-2
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#484139) #
O's up 8-2 on the Guardians. Help might be happening tonight.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#484140) #
Nobody wants to win 83 games.
Meaningful baseball will continue.
scottt - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#484141) #
Cleveland comes back to 8-5.
Then the next inning Jose Ramirez drop an easy pop up along the third base line and Mayo puts the ball in the bird bath on the next pitch. 9-5.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#484142) #
Clement is a 1 WAR player in 566 PA this year. Mike, is that acceptable production for you?

I think if you pare Clement (who is now 30) back to around 400-500 PA over the course of a full season, and give him PA primarily at 2B/SS and also at 3B as needed, he’ll be better/healthier and the team will be better. This — along with caution/conservatism — is one of JS’s weaknesses as a manager. He will stick with his set plan — whether it’s using Hoffman as closer, Vladdy as 2/3 hitter despite an OPS in the 600s, Clement as full-time 2B, or even 2025 IKF — for a long, long time, even when the performance occurring is very poor.

I feel like we had a similar discussion about Santiago Espinal. He had that one good partial season in 2021, and then we kept trying to see a better player than the one who was actually there. He had almost 750 PA with Toronto after that until he was finally let go.
JB21 - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#484143) #
Guardians lose!
TamRa - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#484144) #
As did Texas. But it remains effectively a three team race.

If one assumes (at this point) that the Jays can win this with 83-79 then they have to go 10-5
To stay in front of them, the Guardians likewise would have to go 10-5 (certainly not impossible)
Texas only needs to tie the Jays IF Cleveland falls back. They hold the tiebreaker on both. So at least 11-5 to get to 83

Baltimore would need to go 12-3 to get to 83 wins
Minnesota 14-2 (which means they have nothing to play for this weekend except to try and spoil Cleveland)
Seattle 15-1
Detroit 16-0

Even if you presuppose the third wildcard goes to team with 81 wins, Baltimore has to go 10-5 while the all three in front of them win less than half or less of their remaining games. And the three behind Baltimore are still not realistic possibilities.

At least the out-of-town scoreboard was kind tonight. The Jays are going to need some help from Boston the rest of the way.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 09 2026 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#484145) #
Remaining Skeds


#13 CLE .503

3 @BOS #8 .544
3 vCHX #11 .517
3 @MIN #20 .473
3 @KCR #26 .442
3 vATH #28 .401


#15 TOR .497

3 @TEX #16 .493
3 @BAL #19 .483
3 vBAL #19 .483
3 vCIN #20 .473
3 vDET #24 .459


#16 TEX .493

3 vBOS #8 .544
3 @ARZ #10 .531
3 vTOR #15 .497
3 @MIN #20 .473
1 @SEA #22 .466
3 vNYM #22 .466


#19 BAL .483

3 vMIL #1 .619
3 @NYY #5 .572
3 @TOR #15 .497
3 vTOR #15 .497
3 @NYM #22 .466

Glevin - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#484146) #
"I feel like we had a similar discussion about Santiago Espinal. He had that one good partial season in 2021, and then we kept trying to see a better player than the one who was actually there. He had almost 750 PA with Toronto after that until he was finally let go."

I thought Clement was way better than Espinal was but I looked and no, they were similar. Espinal had 3.7 WAR/650 PAs from 2020-2022. Ernie had 3.5 WAR/650 PAs from 2023-2025.
soupman - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#484147) #
The Jays ought to trade for Elly; Gimenez can slide back to 2B. Probably means giving up Parker, but I would still do it.
92-93 - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#484148) #
That should be the focus this winter - acquiring a bat that pushes Ernie into a 10th man kinda role, one where he will still start most days but where the manager doesn't hesitate to PH for him with a lefty in a situation like yesterday's game.

As Mike Green pointed out, using Keys (or Sanchez) vs. the righty and hoping for a blast should have been an easy decision, but Clement has earned far too much rope and it was never going to happen.
uglyone - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#484149) #
Thing is Ernie is within a hot streak of getting to his usual production at the plate, and he's always been streaky.

And his absolute nosedive in the defensive metrics is completely out of whack with everything he's done before....and defensive metrics are inherently small sample.

Also, i wishh fangraphs gave an option to combine regular season and playoffs stats just for interest's sake. Last year Ernie had a 107wrc+ combined.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#484150) #
Not hitting for Vlad was a worse move than not hitting for Clement, IMHO. Vlad is just so unplayable right now, good defense at 1B notwithstanding. 
Glevin - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#484151) #
"And his absolute nosedive in the defensive metrics is completely out of whack with everything he's done before....and defensive metrics are inherently small sample."

He can get a hot streak and be back where he often is and I expect he will at some point but he's a below average hitter normally. (WRC+ of 94, 98, and 90 last 3 years) what made Ernie valuable was his defense. If he were 26, I might not be worried, but 30 is an age where a lot of player start to decline defensively and his range has gone from 92nd and 98th percentile to 10th percentile. Having say, a 95 WRC+ is very valuable if you have elite defense or even very good defense, but he might be done with those days. What would I project for him next season? 95 WRC+ with average defense is a reasonable but optimistic projection (both better than he's been this year) and I still wouldn't have that as a starting 2Bman. There's very little upside and a ton of downside with Clement too. He isn't going to turn into a good hitter at 31 but he could fall off a cliff and be this second half version of himself. I don't think Jays should be DFAing him or anything but it is an area where they could upgrade and Ernie is better suited being a utility guy than an everyday player.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#484152) #
To add to what UO said.  Clement has generated 1.6 bWAR in 2026 and 10 bWAR in 1660 PAs since he arrived in Toronto.  A reasonable projection for him, combining fWAR and bWAR, would result in 2-3 WAR in 2027, which is more or less what ZiPS is saying so far.  

That's the analytical side.  On the subjective side, I am entirely happy  with the Blue Jays down the middle for 2027- Kirk/Valenzuela, Clement, Gimenez and Bateman is a fine defensive and offensive core.  I wouldn't mess up a double play combination when they have entirely solveable issues to deal with- finding a leftfielder, helping Keys become an everyday DH and helping Guerrero work on whatever is preventing him from being the very good hitter we know he can be.  

Enough about the future.  Let's see them through to the playoffs please.  
greenfrog - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#484153) #
That all sounds reasonable in theory, but Clement has looked worn down for quite a while in 2026. His wRC+ by month this year: 110, 121, 100, 92, 33, 55. In total, his second-half wRC+ is 54.

That looks like a player who might well have benefited from some additional down time this year.

My point is not that Clement is not a good player. I think he is. I just don’t think he is someone who should necessarily be playing every day without fail. It is possible to have a more flexible and effective approach. But that is how John Schneider manages.

92-93 - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#484154) #
Defense is nice and all but you just can't play Bateman, Lukes, Clement, and Gimenez every day and expect to have a good offense, especially when Straw is the guy you use vs. LHP and you'd be thrilled for Vladdy to be a 140 OPS+ guy.
soupman - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#484155) #
Heading into last night Vlad was slashing 313/324/438 since we flipped the calendar. Not great, but not unplayable - especially not on this team. Since he came off the IL he has been, to my eye at least, hitting the ball off the barrel a lot more frequently and even the outs have been more encouraging than the previous few months. Also, his plate appearances have generally just been a lot better- he’s looked a lot less helpless. With that said, I think we all expect him to do better than a 761 ops even during bad years- not for that to be a sign of light.

85bluejay - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#484156) #
I haven't watched any games so I don't know but every few weeks as soon as Vlad has a good game someone will post some arbitrary stats. and say that Vlad has been hitting the better lately and surmising that he is on the verge of breaking out. This has become quite comical. Of course all jays fans are hoping he breaks out but I'm not holding my breath.
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#484157) #
Agreed about not being able to field a good lineup with all of Bateman, Clement, Gimenez, Lukes, and Straw playing everyday. Too many spots with limited or no power. Of course, 2026 Vlad isn't helping matters either. It's almost comical that Schneider feels that is their best lineup at this point. Smith is on a HR streak and is a perfectly adequate offensive player, especially against RHP. Running a Smith/Clement platoon down the stretch is very optimal. The bigger issue is that Sanchez is unplayable in LF, and Keys doesn't have much experience there, but there's really no excuse to have Straw starting in an outfield corner. I'd honestly just put Keys there and pray for the best. At least it's a high upside young bat with power added to a lineup that desperately needs it. The fact that Schneider started Sanchez at DH instead of Keys a few games ago is very telling of how much, or little, faith he has in Keys. If they are not giving him a start over a player they are almost certainly going to non-tender in 2 months, then something is missing there.

As I said before, Clement will never be a role player on this team again. Teams typically don't operate that way with players they have used in starting roles for years, even if it makes sense to do so. It would be the smart thing to do, though. Clement as a super utility player makes a lot of sense. As an everyday player, I think what we are seeing now is closer to what he will be moving forward given his age. His offensive profile tends to age like milk as a player moves into his 30's.
pooks137 - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#484158) #
The other thing is that the Jays don't sit their regular 2B/SS/3B enough to cushion the blow to Ernie's ego of a demotion to the bench even if they wanted to. And while in theory Clement can cover LF/1B/DH, it really makes no sense to rotate Ernie through any position other than the 3 leftmost infield positions because so much of his value is defensive.

The Jays are only giving Okamoto at 3B the odd load management day despite his streakiness & rookie status. Certainly less than a day off weekly.

Gimenez occasionally sits against a tough LHP when he's banged up. But he doesn't really get platooned either given his relatively neutral awful overall splits. So not much available playing time there either.

Whomever replaces Clement everyday at 2B is likely coming from outside the org. Thus unlikely to be many weekly starts at 2B because you want your 2B upgrade playing daily.

So a benched Clement is likely only starting 3x a week max. And that's likely still generous as the Jays don't do regular weekly load management for all their starters.

Even if the coaching & front office agree to stop playing Clement daily, it's hard to see a realistic scenario where it works out that he's suddenly only getting 40-50% of the playing time that he'd previously been accustomed to.

SK in NJ - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#484159) #
Yes, Ernie is either starting next season or on another team. No middle ground.
Glevin - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#484160) #
I mean, there are two major issues with the Jays offense. First is that they don't have an elite or even very good hitters. There is no middle of the order at all. Second is that they also have a ton of not very good hitters. You could survive with one or the other but not both. I mean, how many guys would you bet good money on to have over a 120 WRC+ next year? Right now I'd say none. How about a 100 WRC+ next year? I'd say Kirk and Okamoto are pretty decent bets but that's it.
uglyone - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#484161) #
Lukes this year 102wrc+
Lukes 1 calendar year 102wrc+
Lukes projected 106wrc+

stop besmirching the Lukes!


the "bottom order" guys aren't the problem really. it's the supposed big boys unfortunately.


wRC+

TOR ------ NYY ----- TBR ----- BOS

1B Guerrero 93 --- LF Judge 147 ---- 3B Caminero 147 -- 1B Contreras 156
DH Springer 106 -- DH Rice 142 ----- DH Diaz 135 ------ RF Abreu 119
CF Bateman 127 --- 1B Garcia 134 --- C Hicks 126 ------ 2B Sogard 116 (I don't trust any of these lines to stay this high)

C Alejandro 112 -- RF Bellinger 115 - 1B Aranda 122 --- CF Rafaela 108
3B Okamoto 110 --- 2B Chisholm 99 --- RF Mesa 110 ----- C Rutschman 107
LF Sanchez 105 --- CF Grisham 98 ---- 2B Palacios 97 -- DH Anthony 104

RF Lukes 102 ----- SS Caballero 84 -- LF Simpson 96 --- 3B Durbin 98
2B Clement 90 ---- 3B McMahon 79 ---- CF Mullins 79 --- LF Duran 69
SS Gimenez 82 ---- C Wells 65 ------- SS Walls 71 ----- SS Story 61


IF Urias 122 ----- OF Jones 115 ------ UT Vilade 121 -- UT Gasper 148
UT Smith 92 ----- UT Goldschmidt 114 - IF Madrigal 105 - OF Yoshida 108
C Valenzuela 88 -- OF Ramos 95 ------- OF Deluca 95 --- UT Jones 100
IF McAdoo 83 ----- IF Lombard 88 ----- C Fortes 88 ---- IF IKF 97
OF Straw 82 ------ C Sanchez 59 ------ IF Mateo 64 ---- C Wong 85

X Factor: OF Santander n/a - OF Stanton 96 - 2B Lux 104 - DH Mead 132




Projected wRC+

1B Guerrero 131 --- LF Judge 169 ----- 3B Caminero 138 - 1B Contreras 130
C Alejandro 116 --- DH Rice 132 ------ DH Diaz 131 ----- DH Anthony 120
DH Springer 115 --- RF Bellinger 118 - 1B Aranda 119 --- RF Abreu 115

3B Okamoto 110 ---- 1B Garcia 118 ---- C Hicks 113 ----- C Rutschman 111
RF Lukes 106 ------ CF Grisham 110 --- RF Mesa 94 ------ 3B Durbin 104
LF Sanchez 106 ---- 2B Chisholm 108 -- LF Simpson 91 --- CF Rafaela 99

2B Clement 94 ----- C Wells 92 ------- CF Mullins 89 --- LF Duran 97
SS Gimenez 91 ----- SS Volpe 91 ------ 2B Palacios 92 -- 2B Sogard 92
CF Bateman 90 ----- 3B McMahon 89 ---- SS Walls 73 ----- SS Story 85


UT Smith 102 ----- UT Goldschmidt 109 - UT Vilade 99 --- UT Gasper 112
UT Schneider 101 -- UT Jones 108 ------ OF Deluca 89 --- OF Jones 111
IF McAdoo 89 ------ OF Ramos 105 ------ IF Madrigal 86 - IF Gonzalez 97
C Valenzuela 80 --- IF Caballero 87 --- C Fortes 82 ---- C Wong 87
OF Straw 77 ------- IF Lombard 85 ----- IF Mateo 71 ---- IF IKF 82

X OF Santander 106 - OF Stanton 109 --- 2B Lux 93 ------ DH Mead 110

electric carrot - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#484162) #
Really I think the key to winning more games from this point forward is to never write "Sweep Required" on any batter's box article from this point forward. Let's at least try that out and see how it goes.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#484163) #
It's true that the Blue Jay offence is 29th in MLB vs. LHP in 2026.  Kirk, Bateman, Clement and Gimenez are at 124 wRC+, 107, 86 and 84 or about 100 on average.  Okamoto has been very good and even Guerrero Jr. has been good against LHPs.  You're missing two corner OFs and a DH who can hit LHP pretty well.  McAdoo and Keys might be two of them.  Straw ought to be a 4th outfielder/pinch runner, rather than a platoon corner outfielder.  The assignment for the FO should be pretty clear.

They gave 32 PAs to Jesus Sanchez against LHP and he went .133/.188/.167, which is only slightly better than his career mark.  Lenyn Sosa and Yohendrick Pinango were pretty terrible against LHP.  
Glevin - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#484164) #
"It's true that the Blue Jay offence is 29th in MLB vs. LHP in 2026"

Biggest mistake this FO made this off-season. Was really an obvious area of need and many of us were saying this at the time so not at all hindsight and Jays started season rolling with 3 LH corner OFers for reasons I will never understand especially because fix was so easy. Would be a worse sin if Jays weren't also 20th against RHP.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#484165) #
They're at 98 wRC+ against RHP 20th, but in a big knot with the Red Sox and Yankees between 12th and 22nd.  They would have been pretty good had Guerrero Jr. hit something more than an 82 wRC+ agaisnt RHP this year.  I don't see what the FO could have done about this- the acquisition of Josh Smith has turned out as did many other moves .
Mike Green - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#484166) #
For those who care about such things, the ZiPS ROS projection for Keys found at the link below is inaccurate.  I clarified this with Dan Szymborski in one of the Fangraphs threads.  The correct current projection for him is comparable to the Steamer projection of .226/.305/.412 which is a 100 wRC+.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/sean-keys/35094/stats/batting
greenfrog - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#484167) #
Julio Rodriguez just hit a three-run home run in the bottom of the seventh to give Seattle a 4-3 lead over Texas.
uglyone - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#484168) #
good catch Mike.
uglyone - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#484169) #
i think you mean.....daaaaaa rangers lose!
greenfrog - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#484170) #
The Blue Jays have had incredible luck with their WC competition falling flat on their respective faces in recent weeks.

And yet Toronto is still a game out, due to their own feckless play in Oakland against the lowly and injury-plagued A’s.

I guess one team from this unimpressive lot is going to back into the postseason.
uglyone - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#484171) #
I can think of one team from that lot that's been impressive!


Records before --- after Deadline

Big Risers

KCR .407 --- .559 (+.152)
TOR .464 --- .600 (+.136)
NYY .563 --- .618 (+.055)
TBR .586 --- .629 (+.043)

About the same

BOS .541 --- .556 (+.015)
CLE .504 --- .500 (-.004)
HOU .513 --- .500 (-.013)
TEX .491 --- .486 (-.005)
BAL .482 --- .486 (+.004)
ATH .402 --- .400 (-.002)
LAA .384 --- .382 (-.002)

Big Fallers

CHX .532 --- .471 (-.061)
SEA .487 --- .412 (-.075)
DET .482 --- .382 (-.100)
MIN .496 --- .394 (-.102)
uglyone - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#484172) #
Since the deadline:


C Alejandro 125pa, 143wrc+, 8.3war650
CF Bateman 129pa, 127wrc+, 6.6war650
LF Straw 99pa, 117wrc+, 4.6war650
3B Okamoto 132pa, 115wrc+, 3.5war650
SS Gimenez 112pa, 104wrc+, 5.2war650
DH Springer 109pa, 103wrc+, 1.2war650
RF Lukes 131pa, 97wrc+, 2.5war650
1B Guerrero 110pa, 74wrc+, -0.6war650
2B Clement 127pa, 43wrc+, -2.0war650

UT Smith 51pa, 173wrc+, 8.9war650
IF McAdoo 62pa, 111wrc+, 3.2war650
OF Sanchez 63pa, 98wrc+, -1.0war650
C Valenzuela 45pa, 20wrc+, 0.0war650

UT Keys 9pa, 232wrc+, 7.2war650
UT Schneider 8pa, 125wrc+, 0.0war650
IF Urias 4pa, 102wrc+, 0.0war650
OF Cameron 25pa, 49wrc+, -5.2war650




SP Cease 7gms, 6.0ip/gm, 57era-, 6.2war32
SP Bieber 4gms, 6.1ip/gm, 63era-, 4.8war32
SP Soriano 7gms, 5.7ip/gm, 98era-, 2.3war32
SP Scherzer 6gms, 4.3ip/gm, 103era-, 2.1war32
SP Yesavage 1gms, 2.0ip/gm, 0era-, 1.6war32

SP Taillon 3gms, 3.3ip/gm, 87era-, 1.1war32
SP Lorenzen 4gms, 2.2ip/gm, 151era-, -0.8war32
SP Dallas 2gms, 2.8ip/gm, 231era-, -4.0war32
SP Arrighetti 4gms, 3.9ip/gm, 195era=, -7.2war32



RP Miles 14gms, 1.1ip/gm, 28era-, 2.8war65
RP Varland 15gms, 1.1ip/gm, 42era-, 2.2war65
RP Fluharty 18gms, 0.8ip/gm, 0era-, 2.2war65
RP Fisher 19gms, 1.0ip/gm, 12era-, 1.2war65
RP Rogers 17gms, 1.0ip/gm, 52era-, 1.0war65

RP Sewald 10gms, 0.9ip/gm, 0era-, 1.6war65
RP Little 15gms, 0.9ip/gm, 50era-, 0.9war65
RP Tiedemann 3gms, 1.4ip/gm, 50era-, 1.1war65
RP Mantiply 4gms, 1.5ip/gm, 73era-, 0.8war65

RP Van Eyk 1gms, 1.0ip/gm, 0era-, 0.0war65
RP Waldron 4gms, 1.1ip/gm, 251era-, -1.6war65
RP SWR 5gms, 1.7ip/gm, 209era-, -2.6war65
RP Estrada 4gms, 0.9ip/gm, 178era-, -3.3war65
RP Lee 4gms, 1.2ip/gm, 187era-, -4.9war65
TamRa - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#484173) #
BNS says on ATL that 9 of the Jays' 27 outs in the third game were on at-bats of two pitches or less.

Seems like a not-new problem at that should be correctable, even mid-game.
scottt - Thursday, September 10 2026 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#484174) #
That's not necessary something to correct.
Sometimes they do very well by being aggressive.
Sometimes Vlad takes 2 pitches over the plate and then protects the plate by fouling balls.

A good AB is swinging at good pitches to hit.
Sometimes those come early.

92-93 - Friday, September 11 2026 @ 07:06 AM EDT (#484175) #
If the Jays acquired a good 2B/SS, Clement would effectively be backing up 5 positions - 1B/2B/3B/SS/DH. Okamoto or Vladdy would move to DH if that guy is getting a day off or hurt, leaving Clement in a premium defensive spot. Gimenez would sit vs. LHP. When you factor in days off and IL stints (SS/1B/DH have hit the IL this year, and the Jays have arguably been lucky on that front), that’s a whole lot of playing time left for Clement. It’s 450 PA, easily: They are more likely to acquire a premium hitter at LF/DH though, unfortunately.

There isn’t much luck in mediocre, .500 teams playing mediocre, .500ish ball.
Glevin - Friday, September 11 2026 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#484176) #
2B and LF are the two easiest positions to upgrade in off-season I think. Here re the free agent 2Bman:

Arraez-114 WRC+, 4.1 WAR (who saw this defensive improvement coming???)
Lowe-114 WRC+, 4.1 WAR
Jazz-99 WRC+, 3.4 WAR
Gleyber Torres. 116 WRC+, 1.3 WAR in 377 PAs
Vs.
Clement 90 WRC+, 1.2 WAR

LF
Arozarena: 143 WRC, 4.3 WAR
Suzuki: 134 WRC, 4.1 WAR (playing RF this year but can also play LF)
Happ: 107 WRC+, 2.3 WAR

Vs. Straw/Sanchez/Etc... 91 WRC+, 0.4 WAR

Get one of each group (and not two bottom guys) and Jays are in decent shape.
uglyone - Friday, September 11 2026 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#484177) #
The jays are calling up martin for some reason.
greenfrog - Friday, September 11 2026 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#484178) #
Pinch-runner?
JB21 - Friday, September 11 2026 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#484179) #
Do they have to make room for Martin? What does “who is expected to make his debut” mean? Per Passan.
SK in NJ - Friday, September 11 2026 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#484180) #
Maybe Springer on the IL?
Cracka - Friday, September 11 2026 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#484181) #
It's not the time for a "feel-good story call-up", so there's obviously something else going on... my guess is that Springer is going on the IL or Jesus Sanchez is being DFAed. My bet would be on the latter, given that it's another LH bat and not Daz Cameron. But very weird timing to make this move regardless...
JB21 - Friday, September 11 2026 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#484182) #
Sanchez DFA’d.
Jays at Athletics: Sept 7-9; Sweep Required | 152 comments | Create New Account
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