Come on let's do our best work vs the frigging red stockings.

Sox have not been good at Fenway, but their .614 winning% on the road is the best in baseball.

SWR and McAdoo UP.

Estrada and Schneider DOWN.

Martin clears waivers and stays with Buffalo. MacIver DFA'd.

The pen was running on fumes and they can't yoyo the same couple of guys.

Schneider is a bit of a surprise.
He's running out of time to turn it around.

Nice to hear about McAdoo. Versatile and has legit pop from the right side. Hope he gets a chance. If Schneider carves out a big league career it's likely in another organization. He needs to go somewhere where he plays regularly (against RHP) and that's likely not happening here.

yeah i love Schneider but guy hasn't come close to making hard contact in months.


MacIver DFA is interesting - they might just keep him if he clears waivers but he might also make room for an Aaron Parker promotion.

The Red Sox are throwing three lefties against the Jays so the FO thought McAdoo was a better option than Schneider. For those of you who don't read the minor league updates McAdoo had homered in four straight games and has a multi hit game streak of six.

Plausible Best Lineup Using....



This Year's Stats Only:

1. DH Springer 378pa, .317obp, 103wrc+, 0.9war650
2. LF Sanchez 255pa, .318obp, 110wrc+, 0.3war650
3. 3B Okamoto 475pa, .299obp, 104wrc+, 2.2war650
4. 2B Clement 471pa, .308obp, 100wrc+, 1.9war650
5. RF Lukes 300pa, .323obp, 99wrc+, 2.6war650
6. 1B Guerrero 466pa, .339obp, 98wrc+, 1.4war650
7. C Alejandro 170pa, .324obp, 91wrc+, 4.6war650
8. SS Gimenez 383pa, .281obp, 79wrc+, 3.4war650
9. CF Straw 224pa, .271obp, 67wrc+, 0.9war650

B. UT Smith 171pa, .300obp, 70wrc+, -0.4war650
B. OF Schneider 140pa, .295obp, 70wrc+, -1.4war650
B. IF Urias 59pa, .322obp, 122wrc+, 3.3war650
B. C Valenzuela 215pa, .308obp, 97wrc+, 5.1war650

X. OF Clase 25pa, .360obp, 154wrc+, 7.8war650
X. UT Pianango 180pa, .306obp, 97wrc+, -0.4war650
X. OF Bateman 16pa, .313obp, 75wrc+, 4.1war650
X. IF Sosa 117pa, .207obp, 31wrc+, -3.9war650
X. UT Keys 37pa, .189obp, 25wrc+, -5.3war650
X. UT McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 14wrc+, -5.2war650
X. OF Barger 28pa, .213obp, 0wrc+, 0.0war650



Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:

1. DH Springer 556pa, .355obp, 136wrc+, 3.4war650
2. 1B Guerrero 634pa, .336obp, 100wrc+, 1.3war650
3. 3B Okamoto 475pa, .299obp, 104wrc+, 2.2war650
4. C Alejandro 311pa, .322obp, 103wrc+, 5.2war650
5. LF Sanchez 384pa, .297obp, 94wrc+, 0.0war650
6. 2B Clement 622pa, .303obp, 98wrc+, 2.2war650
7. RF Lukes 441pa, .307obp, 92wrc+, 1.9war650
8. CF Straw 289pa, .289obp, 81wrc+, 2.2war650
9. SS Gimenez 514pa, .275obp, 73wrc+, 2.7war650

B. UT Smith 318pa, .304obp, 69wrc+, -0.2war650
B. OF Schneider 228pa, .317obp, 86wrc+, 0.3war650
B. IF Urias 86pa, .291obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war650
B. C Valenzuela 215pa, .308obp, 97wrc+, 5.1war650

X. UT Pinango 180pa, .306obp, 97wrc+, -0.4war650
X. OF Barger 175pa, .251obp, 54wrc+, -0.7war650
X. IF Sosa 291pa, .241obp, 65wrc+, -1.3war650
X. C MacIver 54pa, .241obp, 34wrc+, -2.4war650

X. OF Clase 25pa, .360obp, 154wrc+, 7.8war650
X. OF Bateman 16pa, .313obp, 75wrc+, 4.1war650
X. UT Keys 37pa, .189obp, 25wrc+, -5.3war650
X. OF Santander 12pa, .250obp, 17wrc+, -5.4war650
X. IF McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 14wrc+, -5.2war650



Using Fangraphs Depth Charts Projections:

1. DH Springer 160pa, .335obp, 116wrc+, 2.0war650
2. 1B Guerrero 180pa, .370obp, 136wrc+, 4.0war650
3. C Alejandro 101pa, .346obp, 113wrc+, 5.8war650
4. LF Sanchez 121pa, .316obp, 108wrc+, 2.1war650
5. 3B Okamoto 165pa, .314obp, 110wrc+, 2.8war650
6. RF Lukes 124pa, .331obp, 105wrc+, 2.6war650
7. 2B Clement 164pa, .307obp, 98wrc+, 2.8war650
8. SS Gimenez 164pa, .304obp, 91wrc+, 3.2war650
9. CF Straw 98pa, .293obp, 74wrc+, 0.7war650

B. UT Smith 67pa, .329obp, 100wrc+, 1.9war650
B. OF Schneider 35pa, .327obp, 103wrc+, 1.9war650
B. IF Urias 24pa, .322obp, 101wrc+, 2.7war650
B. C Valenzuela 86pa, .285obp, 81wrc+, 2.3war650

X. OF Barger 0pa, 105wrc+
X. OF Schreck 4pa, .320obp, 101wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF McAdoo 2pa, .289obp, 89wrc+, 0.0war650
X. UT Pinango 48pa, .297obp, 88wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Clase 39pa, .294obp, 86wrc+, 1.7war650
X. OF Bateman 58pa, .324obp, 84wrc+, 1.1war650
X. UT Keys 7pa, .288obp, 83wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Sosa 7pa, .274obp, 83wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C MacIver 2pa, .279obp, 75wrc+, 0.0war650

Okamoto's knee is barking. McAdoo starts.

Urias out another couple weeks.

Yesavage seeing a specialist.

Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMatheson
·
12m
Spencer Arrighetti’s foot issue has now been diagnosed as Morton’s Neuroma.

Dr. John Schneider: “It is basically a skin buildup around the nerve in your foot, leading it to feel like you have a rock in your shoe.”

They hope he can pitch through it while it’s treated. #BlueJays

I think Okamoto's health explains the McAdoo for Schneider swap. It's been a long time since Schneider looked like he could hit anything at the plate.

I like Schneider and he has some great abs and sees tons of pitches but he just can't hit velocity at all and in today's game that's a killer.

I feel like by the eye test Davis Schneider's swinging strikeout rate must be through the roof.

He has so many great, prolonged PAs that inevitably end up with him swinging through strike 3 in the zone.

He's like Cavan Biggio's evil twin who actually eventually takes the bat off his shoulder (in vain).

I like Schneider and he has some great abs

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder...

Time to back up Taillon, boys. He showed up.

Mackadoodledoo!

Sounds like Taillon might be down for awhile.

Presumably SWR is the next to join the rotation with Spencer Miles' load management.

Taillon going down & SWR replacing him messes up the tired bullpen again. I suppose Taillon to the IL would allow one of the other 40-man guys still stuck on cooldown to be brought back up.

Thankfully Taillon got 4 innings in.

Need a bigger lead.

Andres is the mailman. He always delivers.

Nice.

Reminds me of the play where Bichette got injured.
Catcher is there blocking the plate but dropped the ball and George avoided contact.

The Blue Jays are snakebit. Players who are/have been injured this year:

Ponce
Kirk
Berrios
Yesavage
Bieber
Santander
Yimi
Lukes
Varsho
Scherzer
Corbin
Urias
Clase
Arrighetti
Mantiply
Francis

I mean, that is just sickening. Vladdy and Springer have probably also been dealing with some injuries.

And now Taillon, of course

Thank you very much.

Scoreboard operator had it at 2 outs. That's bad.

What happened?

It's up to the ump to notice it.

There was a play where Vlad trapped a ball and the scoreboard showed 2 outs where there was once.

So the runners didn't take or go back to base when the ball was caught for the second out.

How could they get a run?

They took the force at first. The Red Sox didn’t tag. I don’t get this

Absolutely bizzare play.

If this were a soccer game, there'd be like 20 minutes of extra time.

It doesn't make ANY sense. Wheres the official protest? You hear about those, this seems like a pretty good time to protest the call.
There wouls need to be a specific rule to address something like this otherwise it would normally be ruled an out by general rules.

They took the force at first. The Red Sox didn’t tag. I don’t get this

I believe it is based on the following logic. Whenever a runner leaves early when a fly ball is caught, an umpire won't call him out unless the defensive team appeals. The confusion came since the Jays had recorded a third out and hence didn't feel the need (or have the opportunity) to appeal the runner on third having left early.

The whole need to appeal that a runner left early always seemed strange to me. The umpire knows that he did but must keep quiet unless somebody specifically asks him? I guess this is similar to check swings that are appealed. The umps knows the truth but will say nothing unless asked.

What kind of a BS call was that on the 3-0 pitch to Vladdy? Should be bases loaded, one out.

He did not tag, so he should be out, but they didn't appeal that he didn't tag because they were not told that he had scored.

Feels like a must-win game for the Blue Jays.

That need to appeal is ridiculous.

Same with that blown strike call.

I think Chuck has it right in terms of the logic of the rule, but I am not sure how the Jays could have appealed to third in that situation given that the umpires did not signal that the run had scored. They abandoned the field - and by extension their right to appeal - under the impression that the run did not count, based on the behaviour of the umpires. If they had, as they normally do, emphatically indicated that the run counted by virtue of having been scored prior to the recording of the third out - the Jays would have been alerted to the need and had the opportunity to appeal.

There are no more protests in MLB; this is officially impossible according to the rule book (and neither Dan or Caleb seemed to know this). Chuck explained it well - umpires don't call the play, it needs to be appealed, and because it wasn't, the run scores. Scherzer knew the rule, but apparently the issue was the umpires waved the team off the field before given them a chance to appear... but this isn't covered in the rules.

Two runners didn't tag up on a fly ball and the Jays took the wrong out. They should have thrown to third, not first.

Weird rule.

Valenzuela had two bad ABS appeals and that cost Vlad a walk that would have loaded the bases with one out.

Rogers rocks. What a pitch to ring up Durbin.

Umpires are not going to take any blame.

A major league umpire has never taken the blame for anything! But I agree with you, Gerry - a little more awareness from the Jays solves the problem before it ever arises.

Game is too close for comfort.

Teams get off the field every inning.
Boston appealed for the run after Boston had taken the field.

So touch third base before you leave the field and confirm that the run didn't score.

It's okay to make the out at first, but you must appeal that the runner didn't tag before you leave the field.

Appeal this!

Winning the taillon-grey matchup is a nice surprise.

Keep on rolling.

The big hit by McAdoo who wasn't supposed to play.

Always a pleasure to beat the Red Sox. For the life of me, I can't see why this team has such a good record.

Is that home runs in six consecutive games for McAdoo? Impressive!

Blue Jays could be 2.5 GB of WC3 if the Angels (Detmers) can beat Texas (Gore). 1-0 LAA at the moment with LAA rallying in the second inning.

The vaunted Taillon/SWR tandem starter was always going to dominate the Sox. It’s the rest of the series that’s going to be a crapshoot:)

Five home runs in a row for McAdoo.

The crapshoot is the Jays scoring against lefties.
Not that they scored a ton today.

Now ahead of Seattle by 1/2 a game. 1/2 a game back of Baltimore. 1 1/2 behind Cleveland, 2 behind Detroit & Minnesota. 3 back of Texas pending the result of their game (1-0 LAA in the 4th).

Well, this year could be interesting after all.

Funny how some posters seem to disappear when the team is playing better.

Overall the 7th inning confusion of both teams helped the Jays.
If both teams know what they're doing, the Red Sox still score on the sac fly, and the inning also continues with a Red Sox runner at first.

I'm not buying the argument the Jays didn't have a chance to appeal at third.
They made a mistake (not appealing at third), like the Red Sox made a mistake (not tagging up).

Sportsnet didn't show the Jays leaving the field (Sportsnet was on commerical, then never showed a replay of that part,
as the announcers (Dan and Joe) didn't know the Jays needed to appeal at third until the end of the 16 minute delay).

Sportsnet has a half-hour pre-game show before Tuesday's game and I'm hoping they'll show those mysterious umpire signs the Jays say they saw
(the 'run waved off at home' sign, the 'you must leave the field now' sign, etc.).

If the Jays play meaningful games in September, the bullpen needs A LOT of help. Tiedemann will play a huge role.

What’s the health status of Yimi Garcia?

Garcia is almost certainly done. Maybe for his career. Joe Mantiply might make it back but he hasn't started a rehab yet and the clock is ticking. Corbin is more than likely done.

It's technically possible to trade for a player who hasn't been on a 40 man roster this season, but how many such guys are there who still haven't been called up and could legit help?

You could maybe grab someone who's a FA or recently DFA'd that you have experience with and have some confidence in (is Borucki still free? No. Liam Hendricks is but there's a reason he's thrown 36 innings total since 2022. It looks like maybe Julian Merryweather is trade eligible. He's actually looking pretty good in AAA - in less than 7 innings, but you see where I'm going with this)

Actually, now that I've seen it, I kinda want them to go get Julian and see up close what he has.

More likely you'll get Chad Dallas when/if Tallion goes on the IL and otherwise get a regular dose of Chase Lee, CJ Van Eck, and Estrada (when he's recharged) cycling through the rest of this month. Though I hope-expect Ricky T to be added in September if he remains healthy.

Dallas (guessing) can come back because it's injury related even though he's been down only 5 days

Van Eck has now been down 12 days but there's no spot really (assuming SWR take a turn or two at least in the rotation) until Dallas is used and they need a swap)

Lee can come back in a week, Estrada in 9 days.

weirdly, the Jays are 42-48 vs RHSP and 15-15 vs LHSP

Make of this what you will.

That fly out, put out, no one tags, run scores play was very crazy. Sort of amazing the only run the Jays allow is what should have been a non-run.

Still just 3.5 games back now that Texas has won in extras. As we all thought about at the start of the year no one can contain our McAdoo and Gimenez led offense even when our top 2 offensive players are on the IL (Clase and Urias of course, 1 and 2 by OPS by a mile). :)

It should have been a sac fly.

The ump told the Jays the run didn't score but Boston reminded the ump that the run always score until there is an appeal.

SWR is out of options so they might stick with him.

Dalimon, you say “funny how some posters seem to disappear when the team is playing better”… not sure who that was directed at but a few thoughts:

1) I’m thrilled with the close games lately and how the Jays have had better results
2) I don’t actually think the team is playing any differently than prior months. They’ve got some good SP and clutch hits which has led to some wins
3) 10 games in to August, they have a wRC+ as a team of 73, good for 2nd last in the AL with an xwOBA of .255, good for last in the AL.
4) some of the hitters continue to look brutal despite Ugly saying the offence will get better. Vlad popped up meatballs down the plate each time last night.
5) in August, Springer: 75, Straw: 69, Vlad: 68, Bateman: 68, Clement: 24, Lukes: 18, Valenzuela: 6, Okamoto: 3. That’s 8 hitters in their current lineup well below league average this month. Sanchez and Kirk are the only ones actually hitting well right now.

Thrilled that the games are closer… but nothing here indicates to me the team is any different. With 3/5th of the rotation now being Max, Bieber and SWR, I’m optimistic for a run to the playoffs but also not naive to their current performance.

Scott, it was actually the umps that came together at the end of the inning and brought this to the attention of the teams; Boston did not raise it. I was at the game and watched this all play out. They went to Boston first, as they were taking the field, and then went to talk to Schneider.

The loss of Yesavage and Taillon (on top of all the other injuries) is a heavy blow to the team’s chances, in my opinion. The team still has a chance to make the WC round but it will be a steep uphill battle.

The 2027 roster looks promising, though (especially if Rogers is willing to continue to spend big in the offseason).

Is it just me, or are Jays getting worse with ABS challenges? It feels like something you should be improving on but almost every game, there is near pointless challenge someone misses early.

Fangraphs has a clutch stat which shows "how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.”

Since 2020, the most clutch player in the majors (pretty easily) is Andres Gimenez. IKF is 14th, Bo is 16th, Varsho 27th (I guess they don't count WS),

Showed a graphic the other day that with RISP and 2 out, Gimenez had the highest BA for any Jay, .317 or .318, can't remember which. Then did it again last night.

Just look at who's not commenting right now and wait for the Jays to fall out of it again and look who will be very active posting at that time...

Jaime Campbell referred to that exact stat last night. I have no doubt that Sportsnet staff regularly trawl this site for ideas and content (without giving credit). Topics or views that are expressed here often pop up in Sportsnet articles/commentary within minutes, hours, or a day or two.

dalimon, why don't you scour DaBox and out all these supposed fairweather fans you keep bringing up. It's of utmost importance.

As to posters - there are LOTS who show up only when something big has happened, good or bad. Traffic jumps, and for a few days us 'regulars' can be overwhelmed by it. Now the team is slowly sneaking back in it seems. Hard with so many ahead, but Seattle is now behind us for the moment with Baltimore only 1/2 a game ahead. The games aren't easy but they are fun right now. With Cease-Soriano-Bieber-Scherzer we have a decent top 4 (among the 3rd WC contenders) but damn would it be nice if Yesavage was healthy. I get why Miles is being limited in innings (want him here in '27 and not on the doctors table), but geez, losing Taillon so fast is annoying. Still, at least the club didn't toss in the towel at the deadline like Baltimore did.

It isn't just you, Glevin, but they have been pretty bad at ABS challenges all year. Valenzuela is clueless when to use them, and at this point that's on the coaching staff. His D leaves a lot to be desired, despite the strong throwing arm.

And the loss of their ABS challenge hurt them a lot - Vladdy should have walked the bases loaded with one out, but he couldn't challenge the clear ball and ultimately the Jays did not score a crucial insurance run.

With respect to the bullpen, I hope they have a look at recently DFAed Matt Strahm. No idea what ailed him this year, but he was very solid in Philly the last few seasons.

Just read elsewhere that Schneider is excited by prospects moving up - sees the minors as practice. Fairly good view IMO.

Just look at who's not commenting right now and wait for the Jays to fall out of it again and look who will be very active posting at that time...

LMAO - he is obviously talking about me. Sorry guys, I'm leaving for Europe on Saturday and have a bunch of work to finish up before then. I'm not "not commenting" because the Jays won a few games. I'm glad the team is finding some better results and clearly hasn't given up, but what exactly has changed the outlook here? The pitching staff is decimated with Yesavage and likely Taillon down and the bullpen is thrashed. They basically need to play at this current pace over the remainder of the season, and hopefully they can find a way to do that, but its going to take a hell of a lot more from the offense (which is still below average, even through these recent series wins).

Dalimon you really don't have to start this kind of stuff.

92-93, statcast strongly disagrees with you on Valenzuela.

He and Dillon Dingler have been the best defensive catchers so far with 11 runs above average.

With Brandon, its +3 throwing, 0 blocking, +8 framing.

I think the big thing is we've all accepted this team doesn't deserve to reach the playoffs and in a normal year they'd be so far out it would be a joke. But this year is weird - 2 good teams in the AL (Rays & Yankees), then a whole lot of 500ish teams - Red Sox 10 over (thanks to an insane hot streak), White Sox 5 over, Astros 2 over, Rangers 1 over and those are the current playoff teams. Everyone else is sub 500. I wouldn't be shocked if 2026 sees the first sub 500 team in the playoffs outside of 2020. Only KC, A's, and of course the Angels are out of it (12 straight years with Trout and not making the playoffs, 6 of those years with both Trout & Ohtani - how the heck do you do that?).

Baseball can be weird. Whoever gets that 3rd WC I'd love to go all the way just because it'd be funny.

I don't see the disagreement, hypobole, but it could just be a reading comprehension issue. Valenzuela is not a good blocker and is terrible with challenges. The strong framing number does surprise me, though.

If the Jays manage to pass all those teams that were ahead of them and make the playoffs, it would be very much well deserved.

Bullpen's been heavily worked the past week but tbh i see it as a strength not a weakness at all.

Varland Rogers Miles Fluharty Fisher is a pretty great front 5 imo. And guys like Tiedemann Little Mantiply Dallas Stephan should be fine for the depth spots.

The rotation is a different story. Yesaveage injury is a killer. We absolutely need Bieber and Scherzer to at least be mediocre the rest of the way, which would be a huge upgrade on what they've been all year.

I can’t care about Taillon's injury too much because i doubt he's good anyways. SWR is probably similar. And i'm higher on the aforementioned Stephan than i was, because his 90xfip- in the PCL tells me he might be better than his raw numbers look.

"His D leaves a lot to be desired, despite the strong throwing arm."

Sorry for my reading comprehension, I guess I mistakenly took this as a negative comment.

His blocking may not be good, but it's not bad either. 52 catchers have caught 300 innings. 16 are positive, 20 are negative. Brandon and 15 others are neutral.

Didn't argue his challenges, because you are probably correct on that.

I'm surprised he's even neutral (-1 blocks above average) tbh, but that's probably just a function of how comfortable Kirk looks behind the dish.

92-93 - I think you've hit on the issue. We've become so used to Kirk's framing and blocking that pretty much everything else pales in comparison. Those stats for Valenzuela pretty much match the eye test for me: great arm (but not overly quick release), solid but not great framing and blocking, completely clueless on challenges (both accuracy and when to use them).

Remember than Valenzuela is only 25 and hasn’t even played a half-season’s worth of MLB games. He can still improve his defensive game.

What is nice is Valenzuela is learning now from Kirk, even if just by watching. I'm sure as time goes by he'll get better and better at it all. The challenges will be ... ahem ... challenging for him but I expect the club to tell him no more in innings 1-3, 4-6 only if runners are on or it is someone like Judge hitting, 7-9 use best judgement.

Valenzuela has been the best framer in mlb this year. I think what may be clouding our judgement are those 2 games he cost us with the poor throws.

Just by body type valenzuela will always have a tough time being as good at blocking as kirk.

Kirk had some awful challenges recently too.
Maybe they're fooling themselves with their elite framing.

TSN has the most back handed compliment stat of the year posted - apparently the Jays lead all of MLB in wins with 10 when scoring 2 or fewer runs.

I was poking around at the Baseball Savant and the data on "reasonable" challenges and opportunities is eye-popping and helps to explain some of the frustration that we're feeling. The term is obviously debatable, but in this case, a "reasonable" challenge opportunity occurs when at least one of the following is true: The original call was incorrect; the pitch is within 3 inches of the strike zone edge and an overturn would gain at least 0.3 runs; the pitch carries an expected challenge rate of at least 20%.

Our batters have had only 327 “reasonable opportunities” to challenge (30th or fewest in MLB); they’ve challenged these 22% of the time (10th best) and win most of them. But only 63% of their challenges are on reasonable opportunities; the other 37% are simply bad challenges (among the worst - 24th in MLB).

Similarly, our catchers have had only 322 “reasonable opportunities” to challenge (29th); they challenge 29% of these (9th best). But only 68% of their challenges are reasonable, and 28% are bad (25th in MLB).

There's clearly room for improvement on challenge selection and this matches the eyeball test -- way too many lost challenges in low-leverage situations and/or based on emotional reactions.

I'm still having a hard time figuring out when someone is challenging or not without the umpire taking his huge sidesteps to announce it to the crowd. Okamoto is the worst for me, touches his helmet after every pitch and I've only seen him challenge once.

Valenzuela challenged an 0-0 pitch with 2 outs and nobody on in the 2nd last night, and he was 2.1 inches off. The coaching staff needs to tell him that unless he thinks the entire ball was in the zone (pitcher missed his spot) he can't challenge there.

Remember than Valenzuela is only 25 and hasn’t even played a half-season’s worth of MLB games. He can still improve his defensive game.

I don't disagree that Valenzuela can improve defensively in principle. But Brandon is an "old" 25.

He's turning 26 at season's end Oct 2nd. Being an IFA, he started playing professionally in the Padres system at 17 way back in 2018.

He's been a pro for almost a decade in the minors. It's possible to improve at the MLB level. But it sure is a hard place to do it. And one would wonder why it took so long.

Chase Lee is back to replace Taillon.

Thanks for sharing that research, Cracka

Curious if others feel similar to me on this: Bateman seems to have had some fairly tough luck to date. Many of the balls he’s hit to date have been directly at fielders.

Taillon with forearm tendinitis. Becomes the 14th player currently on the Jays IL. Per Spotrac, that ties the Giants for most in MLB.

They've had 23 total IL placements so far. Not sure, but I don't think any other team has had more. Guardians have 2 on the IL and only 3 all season.

I can't say I'm as impressed by Bateman.

His expected BA, Slugging are all in the bottom 25% percentiles and his exit velocities are quite low as well.

Hopefully he can improve over time.

Bateman needs to improve his bunting prowess ASAP.

He looked awful trying to move runners over on 1st & 2nd with nobody out the other day.

It's criminal for a speedy 4th OF type with 20 grade power not to be able to drop bunts at will.

FWIW Bateman had 293 minor league PA's this year without a sac bunt.

Lenyn Sosa is alive. He starts a rehab assignment tonight.

Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMatheson
·
Follow
News: Trey Yesavage had surgery to repair his left meniscus.

The #BlueJays are not ruling him out for the year, and will evaluate him over the next few weeks. It will obviously depend on how competitive they are down the stretch, too.

Must be a partial meniscectomy with a 4-6 week recovery time.

It's good timing having Cease on the mound tonight. The bullpen could really use as many innings off as possible for a bit of a reboot. Rogers and Woods-Richardson are down and perhaps Varland and Fisher as well, so it might be up to Fluharty, Little, and Miles to protect a lead if the offense led by McAdoo and Bateman up top can build one.

"He's been a pro for almost a decade in the minors. It's possible to improve at the MLB level. But it sure is a hard place to do it. And one would wonder why it took so long."

I don't think it is entirely unreasonable to expect a player's 2nd season to be an improvement on their first.

Catcher defense, in particular, often improves for the first few years in the major leagues, while offence is completely unpredictable.  The catcher learns tricks of the trade which help on offence, but the body takes licks that make offensive development more variable than for any other position.  

Okamoto back in. McAdoo stays in but in LF.

It'd be really nice if we could at least get the remaining players to stay mostly healthy the rest of the way.

Low power means low exit velocity.
That's just physics.

What surprises me is that Bateman has been hitting a lot of balls in the air instead of on the ground.
Normally, a burner would hit everything on the ground.

Bateman has good plate discipline.
He seems to like to take the first strike, contrary to what happened in his first PA.

I actually like what I have seen from Bateman, he’s quick to the ball and very patient. I don’t think his stardust numbers will every look great, but he could be Ernie-light with discipline or left handed Myles Straw.

and now okamoto scratched again.

I like what I've seen from Bateman too. Butler is the comp that immediately comes to mind. Butler managed a career BB% a little over 10% and a career ISO of .080. I see the possibility of Bateman putting up those kinds of numbers. A LHH CF who could put up say a 270/350/350 slash line at the top of the lineup, work the pitch count in grinding ABs and steal some bases would be pretty handy for this roster.

How I feel about Bateman will largely come down to his defense. Is he an good fielding CF? If so, the path to being an everyday player isn't too hard to see. Is a below average fielding CF? In that case, pretty hard to see anything more than 5th OFer. I don't love the Butler comparison because Butler was a sub-HOF level talent with fantastic OBP skills who didn't strike out (and a horrible base stealer) and I don't that's likely for Bateman. He does feel like an old-timey player with those skills but also way more K's than those players had. Maybe someone like Gary Pettis?

Still no Boston lineup.

Bateman has been fun and if he does become a Brett Butler type that'd work nice for #1 or #2 in the order. 110 OPS+ 290/377/376 line. 558 SB but 257 CS (different era, was considered good then, safe to say the Jays wouldn't consider a 2-1 ratio of SB-CS acceptable today).

1 DRS, 1 OAA, 1 rARM already for Bateman in 40 1/3 innings in CF. Can't complain. Who knows, that trade might end up looking really good really quick if he can get that OBP up to the 350 range. At the very least he is fun to watch out there.

Ouch, just checked Varsho with Houston - 41 wRC+ 120/241/240.

Heineman in LAA: 222/271/289 56 wRC+

Gausman as a Cub: 2 ER allowed in 7 IP in 1 start.

Hoffman as a Twin: 3 G 3 IP 1 R allowed, 1 hold, 1 loss, other game came in losing 2-1 and held it there.

Nance as a Twin: 11 G 10 1/3 IP 1.74 ERA 5 holds, 1 blown save, 1 win (in the blown save game) so handling the pressure there much better than here.

Eric Lauer as a LAD: 10 G 9 GS 55 2/3 IP 112 ERA+ 5.41 FIP - so extremely lucky it seems (1.8 HR/9, 5 K/9 also suggests that 112 ERA+ ain't going last to last long).

One run against and nine extra pitches thrown by Cease because Kirk didn’t challenge strike 3 to the leadoff hitter. Sigh.

Nearly 60 pitches through 3 for Cease. Likely some heavy lifting for the pen again tonight.

Cease hasn’t been good tonight. Hard manager decisions now about how hard to lean on some tired leverage relievers

Seems pretty easy...stick with Lee, Little, and Waldron unless the offense gives you a reason not to. Miles and Fluharty should be in play if the Jays can score the next run.

Bateman now has the highest OPS in the lineup right now, hes a throwback but he’s athletic in his actions and quick to the ball.

3rd out of the inning
1st - Vlad
2nd - Ernie
3rd - Vlad
4th - Ernie
5th - Vlad

Team's hitting a bit today.

Might not have Rogers and Varland available, so might still get hairy

5 outs from Lee was huge. Let’s see where we go from here. Fun game.

Attaboy Kirky. Way to make up for another bad night with the ABS from the team.

Abreu's throw that nailed Vladdy went straight to 2nd, so if Fables hadn't held Bateman and Vladdy was hustling the whole way there would be some more breathing room here.

I really don't like pinch running for Kirk with a lead. If the Jays had a speedster who could steal a bag, maybe.

Wow what a play by Gimenez, one of his best of the year.

Boom. Red sux.

Very entertaining game tonight. 

Thumbs up on the pen management tonight. The AAA brigade of Lee, Bateman and McAdoo leading the way with Gimenez and Straw kicking in. Fun fun game.

Relatively good news on Taillon and Yesavage. Maybe they can contribute at some point in Sept/Oct.

Gimenez slides, spins and throws so fast, if he had a bit more arm strength he'd be fantastic. And he did this after taking a ball on the knee.

Glad to see the Jays were able to win a close game without using Rogers or Varland. Also nice to see Schneider not afraid of going with the hot hand and putting young players at the top of the lineup.

Straw came up short because the ball was hit near a fence with no padding. Turns out a out wasn't worth an injury, so good play overall.

Bateman is quite articulate.

Arrighetti becomes an important option if he can pitch through his foot discomfort.

Feeling good about my “prediction” for a Bateman slash line right about now:). (And, no, that is neither serious nor was it a prediction lol)

no idea how this team is winning but I'll take it! Incredible play by Gimenez to help seal the win.

Me i had a harder time understanding how they were losing.

3-1 LAA over Texas after 4.5 innings. Blue Jays would be 2.5 GB if Texas loses.

Biggest reasons we were losing - 30th ISO, 29th BB%, 29th wRC+, 28th HRs.

Best offensive stat and the only offensive reason we keep scratching out close wins - #3 in Clutch hitting. Only White Sox and Rangers have been clutchier.

Pitching has been really good at keeping games close allowing our putrid hitters to rise to the occasion.

The expanded playoffs are certainly doing their job. JP Ricciardi might still be a GM had this come into effect during his tenure.

Way to grind one out..

Running into outs even when he gets a hit - can we bench Vlad at some point? Like, for all of August or something? Or is he basically bulletproof at this point despite how much he's hurting the team? 

2.5gms out

5 games below .500.

Texas lost so 2.5 out now but also, only a half game behind Baltimore and Cleveland. And one game behind the Twins. Because the Twins and O's are playing each other while Detroit is at Cleveland, they can't lose ground on at least two of them even with a loss and can gain on two of them with a win.

For example, if the Jays win and Baltimore & Cleveland lose, then there's only three teams between them and the WC spot.

Again, I don't really think that they'll end up in the playoffs, yet I'd be satisfied if we didn't know the answer to that until the last week of the season so that it feels like they are playing, as they say, "meaningful September baseball"

But I don't think it's impossible either.

Stros lose too. So they're only 3gms up on us, keeping another team firmly in the playoffs battle.

Looking through the scores and noticed Sugano got his 12th win for the Rockies. That's quite a few, I thought to myself. Then it dawned on me we're 120 games into the season and I've checked all sorts of stats this year and I've never once checked pitcher wins. Times have really changed, for me at least.

So I took a look. Philly's Sanchez leads with 15. Cease leads the Jays with 7. Jays are dead last with 24 wins by SP's; Sugano's win pulled the Rockies ahead of us.

On the other hand, with Lee's win tonight, we're now alone in 1st with 34 bullpen wins.

"Me i had a harder time understanding how they were losing.
Me i had a harder time understanding how they were losing"

The #1 and #2 hitters in the lineup were both in AAA last week. Jays don't have a single hitter with a WRC+ over 109. They have a team WRC+ of 91. Last year, it was 112. Their two highest batter WARS are Gimenez and Valenzuela. It's not very complicated. Their offense stinks. They are winning and that's great, but this isn't a good team. It's just that almost all other teams are also not good. The Red Sox have a good record, but are they better than the Jays? Maybe if Crochet and Anthony are healthy but I don't see how this team went 30-5. The NL has a few good teams and I guess the Rays are decent and Yankees are good if they are healthy (they aren't) but baseball is just filled with mediocrity.

Texas owning the tiebreaker means the Jays are effectively 3.5 games out of a WC spot.

If the jays are playing meaningful games in September despite the plethora of injures, the BP running on fumes and the faceplant by the $500M man, it will be a minor miracle. The newcomers have added much needed energy.

Joey Votto has provided his analysis of what ails Vlad. Via X.

Yes glevin i understand that the hitting has been terrible, but i still don't understand why.

Like there's also a simple answer to why they're on a 9-4 streak - they've posted a 2.57era over that stretch.

is that actually an answer tho?

Watching the game last night, I noticed from the broadcast that Andres Gimenez & Adley Rutschman's "baseball card stats" were nearly identical

Gimenez - .239, 8 HR, 48 RBIs

Rutschman - .252, 8 HR, 47 RBIs

And yet per BBRef, Adley has been 20 batting runs more valuable than Andres (15 to -5).

Now Gimenez has an extra 102 PAs on the year given Rutschman's days off as a catcher & his time off with injury. Meaning a whole lot of extra outs (over a third more by back of the napkin math) to get the same counting stats.

Still I find it interesting that an extra hit or two per hundred PAs, a few dozen more walks and a little bit more power from Rutschman makes the difference between a 4 WAR catcher over a full season and a borderline unplayable offensively Gimenez who is getting by completely on his defensive prowess at SS.

Rutschman's OBP is ~50 points higher, and his SLG is ~70 points higher. Their BA may be close, but that's about it.

The Jays are 9-4 in their last 13 with a team wRC+ of 86 and xwOBA of .268 during that span. That's pretty bad. They have a 2.57 team ERA during that span (2nd in MLB) which explains the winning. This team is going to need to win games like the 2023 did, behind outstanding pitching. The AL is so bad and the schedule eases up tremendously in 2 weeks that maybe it's possible, but there are a lot of teams either ahead of the Jays or in their vicinity so it's going to rely a lot on how bad other teams are just as much as how good the Jays are.

Hopefully some of the young players (McAdoo, Bateman, etc) provide the spark the team needs. If I'm the Jays I'm calling up Tiedemann and putting him in high leverage immediately. He (like all pitching prospects but especially him) has a limited amount of bullets in his arm. If he looks good then call him up and let him use those bullets in the big leagues.

I'll take Kirk and Gimenez over Rutschman and Monastario or Rutschman and Mead. I think the Orioles made a very smart move scooping up those prospects from the Red Sox.

If Toronto had at least two above average offensive players then Gimenez wouldn't be such a lightning rod for criticism. He's Andrelton Simmons at the worst and Gleybor Torres or Bryson Stott offensively at best. That'll play.

The winning record in August is the result of two things: a) excellent pitching (as noted above); b) "clutch hitting" - the Jays have been at or near the bottom in hitting with RISP in all of MLB for most of the year - in August they are in the top 10 in both hitting with RISP and in "High Leverage" (Fangraphs). In other words, excellent hitting and some normalization of hitting luck is doing the trick - long may it last.

To further SK's point about the schedule, was pointed out after the Cards series Jays would play 20 games in 21 days, all against playoff teams. Tonight will be the halfway point, and the team is 6-3 so far. Once the Jays are through the next 11 games, not one of the last 30 games are against an opponent with a current winning record.

Something numbers won't tell you which has made a difference, I think, is John Schneider's better management of his better roster. Bateman and McAdoo have been used great. It's amazing to me how to kept utilizing Varsho in the same role as last year despite the drop off in performance all year. Same thing with how long it took him to remove Hoffman from the 9th inning. Sometimes the best way to improve the managing is to simply change the players he can use.

Paul Sewald claimed on waivers; 24 saves this season... just don't pay much attention his other numbers.

Strangely despite his over 6 ERA he was 24-3 in saves-blown and stranded all 6 inherited runners he saw. High leverage 177/243/403, low leverage 268/328/643. Basically he needs the adrenaline rush of pressure to do well, kind of the opposite of Hoffman (high: 272/361/383 low: 216/275/365). His only real problem has been the long ball - 12 in 39 IP vs 2.1 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9. Big problem, but if used in clean innings might work well. Only making $1.5 mil this year so no big item on the budget, free agent post '26.

if you squint there's some gamble-worthy stuff there.

Pre-Jun15: 26.1ip, 3.08era, 3.77fip, 4.33xfip
Post-Jun15: 12.2ip, 12.79era, 9.63fip, 4.42xfip

was pitching pretty well, then completely fell apart.

even if he just gets back to his xfip there (which has stayed consistent over both the good and bad streaks) he might be kinda useful.

but i doubt it.

He's had plenty of high leverage experience and success. Which pretty well seems every inning the Jays pen has to cover. LH batters have torched him and he's actually faced more LH than RH. Guess opposing managers pinch hit a lot when they face him.

Bloss recalled and placed on the 60 day, ending his season. Curious, what benefit is there to recalling him before the IL placement? He gets major league pay, but for the Jays??

The benefit is that he is now off the 40 roster.

Context: there isn't a 60IL in the minors to avoid this being a 40-man loophole: you only get the extra spot from people accruing major league service time.

Seward is a side armer.
He throws a 91mph 4-seamer and a sweeper.

Chase Lee throws at 3 degree angle. Seward at 12 degree.
Lee's fastball is 90mph and has some drop.
Lee throws the 4-seamer only 15% of the time.
He throws a sinker and a sweeper 38% each, plus a change 10% of the time.

Seward has never found a 3rd pitch.
He throws the fastball 60% of the time.

He looks like a right hand bat specialist.
Not sure Schneider will be able to use him effectively.

So the Jays can't put him on the 60 day while he's in the minors?

Ok joe, thanks.

I don't follow other teams too closely. Sewald was who I thought we were getting in the Teoscar trade (we got Swanson). I guess now we got him too..

This is a relatively expensive move. Bloss now gets MLB salary and service time, and I'm 99% sure the placement is backdated to July 12th, which is the day after his last AAA appearance. Same scenario with him last season, but because his injury happened in early May, they chose to keep him injured on the 40-man roster all year rather than move him to theh 60. It saved them about $500k (and nearly a year of service). This time, it's about $270k* and a half-season of service time. (*MLB daily minimum is $ 4,192; AAA daily is $706, times ~77 days).

The Jays were very hesitant to use the call-up loophole last year in 2025 to free up a 40-man roster spot while Jake Bloss was out for the year recovering from TJ IIRC.

In 2025, they cut some other players like Manoah ahead of Bloss when the roster crunch came around repeatedly. When calling up Bloss & putting him on the 60-day IL would've only cost them some prorated MLB salary, some benefits & a few months of MLB service time.

I can't actually remember if they ended up caving in the end. If they did, it seems they held off calling Bloss up until the very end of the year between Sept 29 & Oct 4th as per his Milb transaction log.

I don't know but MLBTradeRumors says it will cost the jays 47 days of MLB service and about $196K but the Jays will still control Bloss for 6 more years.

they don't HAVE to backdate it, you only do that if you expect him back this season which they don't. What the really saved last year was on option that they might have used this year (looking ahead from when they made that choice)

As for Sewald, I scoured over the numbers thinking "well maybe he just gave up a lot of homers out there" or something but...he's just not that good. I don't expect a long stay.

Sewald used to be really good. He never had much 'stuff' though even when he was. I don't know if he can get back to that.

"So the Jays can't put him on the 60 day while he's in the minors?"

Correct.

I was looking at this the other day, as one does and the 60 is so crowded it's going to cause a roster crunch just after the Series.

Current 40-man roster pending free agents: 6 (assuming they pick up Straw's option)

Current players on the 60 who are not pending free agents: 8 - though you can easily non-tender Sosa to save one spot.

That's still one too many in all. Then you have to have room to add Perry, Stanifer, and probably Stephan to the 40 for Rule 5 protection. That's 4 spots needed just to get back to 40.

Probably coming out of Mantiply (though I'm sure they'd like to have him back on a minor league deal if he doesn't find a better elsewhere) Waldron, Lee, and Van Eck but might also lead to Sanchez and/or Davis Schneider leaving the roster.

Barring trades in the meantime.

If you want to sign free agents (probably after the lock-out is resolved) then you still have cuts to make.

You only backdate so the player can be recalled 60 days after the injury date. Not a factor here.

They definitely used an option. Backdated to spring training might save an option but would cost a full year of service.

Springer has to be in bad shape for Sanchez to be starting against a LH.

they haven't ever actually taken him off the IL (he was still rehabbing the elbow when he hurt the shoulder) so I'm not sure he was ever optioned this year. It's possible that he was technically injured, not optioned, the whole year. f he was it would be a reasonable possibility that he (and maybe Tiedemann?) could be awarded an extra option year as sometimes happens when you lose a whole year to injury.

I'm not confident in my understanding of how the option rule applies when you spend the whole year injured and are never technically assigned to a regular minor league roster.

MLBTR seems to feel Jays will get a 4th option year for Bloss.

Davis Schneider is hot and has a .750 career OPS against Suarez. He would be a much better choice than Sanchez to start against Suarez.

Unfortunately for the Jays Schneider has shown absolutely nothing vs. LHP this year in ample opportunity and the team can't afford to carry him. McAdoo has looked good the last couple of games.

We (and Davis) will always have that leadoff HR in Game 5 of the World Series vs. Blake Snell though.

lookin good, soriano.

Six outs on 21 pitches is a great way to start a game.

Jesus Sanchez is 2/7 with 5 K in his career against Suarez.

Note the strategic diss of Sanchez to generate production tonight…

Vladdy has had more than ample opportunity against LHP and RHP this year, and is rocking a sub-700 OPS.

Davis Schneider is in Buffalo because he can't hit major league pitching. He went 1 for 5 with 4 K's last night.

Suarez is a seemingly better opponent for him (low-velo pitcher). And Davis had a 1.013 OPS in AAA in July.

But yes, Davis appears to be a AAAA hitter who generally just isn’t good enough to hit at the MLB level.

Of course, Sanchez against LHP is not legit either, and his defense is suspect, so pick your poison.

One thing that was appealing about Soriano is that while it's often hard to improve what a pitcher does, the Angels are truly one of the worst organizations in baseball, so it's easy to see how the Jays might identify some easy improvements to make.

Angels just fired their pitching coaches.

Giving Soriano a little more run support than a single run would be nice.

man mcadoo's got an ugly swing. but sometimes looks aren't everything.

BATEMAN IS BUNTMAN

The Varsho special.

Vlad hasn't been in this situation very often. I predict a HR

Abreu is so good... solid at bat by Vladdy though.

oh man vladdy stung that. crap.

Getting down to crunch time, 1-1 with both starting pitchers nearing the end. Couple runners on with Contreras up.

Superb pitching by Soriano. Blue Jays rotation could be very good next year.

not sure why they're taking soriano out at 89 pitches with the bottom of their order coming up.

i thought our bullpen was spent.

Probably because Soriano is their prized SP acquisition and he’s had two TJ surgeries in his career. The Blue Jays want to keep him healthy for the next 2.5 years, and not break him in his first month with the team.

lol he threw more pitches his last start.

Also Fluharty has been pitching well and he gets a couple of LHB here.

Pulling Soriano after 90 pitches in an extremely tight ballgame is reasonable. Also he walked a batter last inning (on a bit of a wild pitch), which is sometimes a sign of fatigue creeping in. I would trust Walker/Schneider on this one.

Relievers on 2 days rest looking very good.

ha that was some great luck on that drop.

and a great slide by vladdy.

Great all around base running by Vladdy. Great read, great rounding the bag and a great slide.

attaboy erndog

A guy who throws nothing but fastballs, 2 days in a row. Yeah.

floodgates!

ha that waldron strut!

The BB by Waldron with a 6-1 lead…not acceptable

Goes with the knuckle ball.
Well, it made things interesting.

The Blue Jays are playing pretty well for a bad team!

Tor make playoff odds went from about 11% to 15.2% with tonight’s win.

Huge win. Let's get the sweep done tomorrow!

Great win!

That resembled a 2025 win. Keep it going.

Team victory! That was fun to watch!

LAA ahead of Texas right now, so it could be down to 1 1/2. Moved ahead of Baltimore with Cleveland just 1/2 a game ahead. Seattle now 2 1/2 back of us. Twins and Tigers a game ahead. This is fun! Sure didn't expect this when they were closer to dead last in the majors than to the playoffs.

Turns out we weren't delusional.

1.5gms back

Moreover, Cleveland is in free fall and the Twins are hovering a little below .500 over the last few weeks. The Rangers are too but have a softer schedule. The only ones playing well right now are the Jays and Tigers.

And hey, not only is it possible but it's already happening over in the NL:

https://www.mlb.com/news/padres-wild-card-spot-after-being-buyers-at-trade-deadline

Quote:
And on July 10, the Padres were 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot, sitting in 11th place in the National League.

What a difference a month makes.

On Wednesday, the Padres completed a sweep of the league-leading Brewers with a dramatic walk-off victory, 4-3 in 11 innings. They’ve since reinforced their rotation -- at the time their biggest weakness. And in the span of a few weeks, they’ve leapfrogged six would-be contenders in the NL Wild Card race.

By the time Sung-Mun Song slid in safely under the tag of Brewers catcher Gary Sánchez -- by the time Luis Campusano was mobbed on the infield after his first career walk-off hit -- the Padres were squarely in playoff position, having passed both the Phillies and Diamondbacks, who each lost on Wednesday afternoon.

There’s still plenty of baseball to be played. About a quarter of the season, to be precise.

“Now it’s that 40-game sprint,” said Padres second baseman Jake Cronenworth.

But the fact that the Padres made it to this point is somewhat remarkable. Their offense was the worst in baseball through mid-June. Their rotation was crumbling amidst injuries and inconsistent performance.

In the month leading up to the Deadline, the Padres would play a stretch of 17 games in 17 days before the All-Star break, then begin another with 26 games in 27 days. It was hard to see a way through.

And yet, somehow, they’ve made it through even stronger.

Yeah, pretty amazing that the Jays are only 1.5 games back of WC3. Helps that WC3 is under 500. Really of the teams chasing the wild card only Detroit by RS/RA looks much better than the Jays - and Detroit did sell at the deadline their top starters (Skubal and Mize).

Certainly if our offense finds its way back to "normal" expectations and the pitching keeps anything like it has been playing, the Jays have a great chance.

Last year, on August 13, the Cincinnati Reds had 17.5% playoff odds.

Admittedly, this is not a common occurrence, and the Reds were 5 games over .500 at that point, but the Reds were basically in the same spot the Jays are in now in terms of likelihood to make the postseason and still got there.

Since Sanchez is here predominantly to bat against RHP why consider switching him for Schneider?

Brendon Little has gone on the paternity list. Estrada back up.

In a "neutral context" the idea that Schneider is better than Sanchez against a LH starter is pretty undeniable. However, I don't think that you can ignore that Schneider has looked broken for some time now. He just hasn't been able to hit anything in months. He needs a reset (at least) in AAA. The bigger issue for me was that Lukes should have been playing ahead of Sanchez for no other reason than defence. I suspect that Sanchez was in because they are facing three LH starters in a row and they didn't want Sanchez to sit for too long. At this point in the season that wouldn't bother me one wit. But that's why I'm not a major league manager:)

Gerry is there any update on Santander?

For everyone - who's the 5th starter right now?

Have not heard anything about Santander.

I think Simeon Woods Richardson is the 5th starter now until Spencer Arrighetti gets his foot sorted out.

Is Corbin out for the season? It would be nice to have a bit more SP depth in case the team loses another SP or two.

Hoping Taillon is back in 2-3 weeks and Yesavage is back in late Sept or early Oct.

Still not understanding the Sanchez/Schneider discussion. The manager couldn't play Schneider yesterday, because Schneider had been returned to Buffalo. During his last promotion in 12 games he hit .067/.364/.133. 77 wRC+.

Bang on Nigel, that's exactly why Sanchez was in the lineup over Lukes. A defensible decision too, considering Lukes hasn't hit lefties this year either.

A note on the "playoffs odds" being bandied about.

The Jays are essentially a pick'em proposition for the last wildcard vs TEX CLE DET MIN SEA BAL. And if you like the jays roster better than how they've played this year, then even better.

The reason why those other division teams have significantly better 'playoffs odds' than the jays is not because they're significantly more likely to win that wild card spot, but because they also still have decent shots at winning their divisions, as HOU and CHX are projected only a 1 or 2 better.

I'm not sure it was a defensible decision though. I agree that Lukes was no more likely to hit a LH than Sanchez but he is so much better in the field that should have been the trump card. Anyway, Sanchez worked a BB in one of his ABs and he didn't screw anything up in the field so onwards we go:)

it is a bit funny that we're beating up on the Sox despite them throwing nothing but lefties at us, when we're rammed full of lefties that can't hit lefties - especially with springer and okamoto missing games to injury.

But today it looks like we have close to our rightiest lineup

LF McAdoo
2B Clement
1B Guerrero
DH Springer
3B Okamoto
SS Gimenez
C Valenzuela
CF Straw
RF Lukes

gonna need it - Tolle is pretty tough.

Mad Max, time for one of your big games.

Defensible in that you don't want a guy you supposedly like vs. RHP to sit for too long, as you astutely mentioned.

Interesting to note that the first 3 or 4 games that Bateman played with Straw it was Brett in CF, and last night that was switched to Myles.

Sanchez/Lukes argument makes sense. Maybe there was granular data that showed Sanchez over Lukes for Suarez pitch types or as Nigel suggested just getting Sanchez in for a day.

Schneider is having to put out some pathetic lineups no matter what, shades of 1977. Except for the clutch.

As for Boston, was wondering why we hadn't seen Whitlock. Turns out he has been battling injury and was just IL'ed.

92-93, I think that was about making sure Bateman was comfortable while he was integrated into the team, and not a statement about who they think is a better defender. It’s about letting the player get acclimated in the role they are most accustomed to ( in my view, anyway)

Quick quiz of the day - what two ex Jays are in the top 30 of both WAR leaderboards (BR and Fangraphs) in all of MLB? (one is easy)

Tolle has significant reverse splits so far in his career.  It might be a fluke, but 7 HRs in 147 PAs by LHH is suggestive that there is something going on.  Andres Gimenez has been hitting well in August, so maybe this is going to be his day to shine.  

How to endear yourself to a fanbase despite having a weak line, brett bateman edition:

Overall 29pa, .259avg, 83wrc+

Bases Empty 15pa, .067avg, -59wrc+
Runners On 14pa, .500avg, 236wrc+
With RISP 11pa, .500avg, 232wrc+

Low Leverage 10pa, .000avg, -100wrc+
Med Leverage 13pa, .364avg, 168wrc+
High Leverage 6pa, .500avg, 235wrc+

Ty France is having a great year so I assume it's him and the Canuck.

Ah I see now that it's not Ty. "Should of kept".

I assume it’s Otto Lopez and Moreno

It is Lopez and Moreno. Moreno has become the player that his minor league numbers (and earlier MLB years) suggested he would be (he's just managed to stay on the field more this year). Nothing about Lopez's history suggested that this is what he would become. Kudos to the Marlins.

Arrighetti's foot is a nerve issue which is difficult to treat.
The last news was that he was trying to throws in spite of it.
I would expect him to demonstrate that in AAA first, so SWR for now, I think.

Another absolutely clueless challenge by Valenzuela on a 2-0 pitch in the first inning with 2 outs and nobody on base. Even if the pitch was close, which it wasn't, he has no business challenging that. At this point it's on the coaches, not him. He needs to be made to understand how much value he is giving up with these horrendous decisions.

Most starting lefties have reverse spliits.
That's the case for all 3 Boston starters.
When it comes to facing lefties, the split of the hitter matters more than the split of the pitcher.
So, basically, they have reverse splits when facing hitters who are not platoon players.

Gimenez is not a platoon hitter.
Lukes and Sanchez are.
I don't know yet about Bateman. Normally, players don't face that many lefties in the minors.

making it worse - both Abreu and Contreras would have been struck out if valenzuela had challenged the two actual strikes that were called balls.

that run is entirely on valenzuela.

And with the way this ump looks early, it's likely to cost them way more than a run. So frustrating to watch, and something not picked up by Statcast.

I don’t disagree on the challenge stuff, but I have a different response. I wish they dropped the overlayed strike zone. We have more precise information than the players on the field and all it does is contribute to our frustration because we expect the players to be reacting based on what we say. Unfortunately there is an information imbalance and that’s not possible.

Why take away the overlaid strike zone just to protect players who make moronic decisions?

Valenzuela is actually a very good framer, so the fact that he keeps throwing away challenges early in completely pointless moments of the game on balls that aren't even close to the zone is wild. These are just outright brain-fart moments and he deserves criticism.

Someone literally needs to sit him down and tell him that he has zero business challenging a call in the 1st inning with nobody on base unless the entire ball is clearly in the zone and the umpire only missed it because there was a mixup between the pitcher and catcher which made a clear strike look like a ball.

man that's a costly error even if we don't give up any runs.

he was out of the inning with the bottom of the order due up in the 5th with him under 70 pitches. Now he's up over 80 pitches with the top of the order coming up. dang.

Not sure how many pitches Mad Max has in him these days so those are costly pitches. Having said that, you can't really complain about what Max has given the team since coming of the IL.

Way to get out of it, Max. Especially after Valenzuela didn’t challenge strike 3 to end the inning.

phew. but now max will be lucky to get through 5. if they even let him face the top of the order again.

Blue Jays are making Tolle’s afternoon pretty easy. Very low pitch count for the Red Sox starter. Guess they’ll just have to keep Boston from scoring any more runs and then eke out a couple of runs of their own.

Those were some really poor ABs in the 4th. Springer looks toasty again but that may be the lingering injury.

i really, really like Rafaela (which is rare for me with a red sock) but man these baserunning gaffes are taking him down a notch for me.

I doubt they'll bring back max on 92 pitches against their 3-4 hitters but i'd be tempted!

I am surrounded by Red Sox fans at my work (it almost makes me want to quit) and Rafaela is the subject of many of their conversations. What seems universal among even Sox fans is that Rafaela's baseball IQ is the worst of any Sox player that they can recall. It drives them nuts - for which I am eternally grateful.

Heh that's good to hear.

Didn’t watch the first half of the game but the line suggests Scherzer was great. If missed ABS challenges allowed the lone Boston run to score, then Scherzer absolutely rose to the occasion today.

The offense seems to be having one of its putrid days but it’s still only a one-run (winnable) game.

Rafaela worse baseball IQ than Manny? Manny was the worst fielder I ever layed eyes on I think -- and it wasn't all from lack of speed.

(He's still my favorite Red Sock however.)

The remarkable thing about Spencer Miles is that even when there ends up being a couple abord I'm not really concerned that anyone is gonna score because, almost always, they don't.

Vlad's clear effort on the basepaths and in the field make his struggles at the plate even tougher to watch.

Tolle may throw a Maddux:(

Not going to argue Rafaela's IQ, but DRS has him as the 4th best defensive OF in MLB, (ahead of PCA), statcast 2nd behind only PCA.

Looking for some heroes in innigs 7, 8 & 9. How about you George?

Kazuma?

oof. nice at bat okamoto.

I refuse to believe that Tolle is *this* good. 7 IP, 2 H, no runs, 79 pitches, pitching on the road in Toronto.

I think it’s partly that the Blue Jays lineup is weak / tired / banged up.

hey we're holding tolle to only 3 Ks!


vladdy overaggressive in the field gonna hurt us i think. not much room for error with chase lee up against the meat of their order.

Tolle may throw a Maddux:(

Good chance if they leave him in, though Aroldis last pitched 4 days ago and "may need the work".

chase lee. yep.

Chase Lee :(

Sewald and Tiedemann over Lee and Waldron in the pen would be pretty welcome additions at this point.

At least no Varland or Rogers needed which is something and 3/4 against Red Sox is still great.

Gameday says ball 4 to Abreu was actually strike 3. And ball 2 to contreras was strike 2 (and strike 2 was strike 3).

Huh? Abreu walked on strike 3 because Valenzuela had already burned a challenge earlier in the AB and subsequently chose not to challenge a pitch that would’ve ended the inning.

Vlad being a 1 WAR, 97 wRC+, and .094 ISO player in well over 100 games is incredibly frustrating. As bad as this season has gone, they are probably clinging to the 3rd WC right now if Vlad is even what he was in the regular season last year (which still wasn't elite). One of the most disappointing seasons for a star player that I can remember.

Lots of talk about pitching. Can’t win when you score 0 runs on 2 hits.

Jays finished the season 9 W, 4 L against the Red Sox.

Jays are 3 W, 4 L against the Yankees. Winning 4 of 6 would give the Jays that season series as well.

Jays are 2 W, 8 L vs Tampa so need to win 7 in a row. *Unfortunately* only have 3 left.

The Red Sox games have been the highlight of this otherwise dreary so far season. I love beating the Red Sox. If Vladdy hits .500 for the rest of August and September with 20 homers and the Jays get into the playoffs -- then altogether I'll be happy with the Jays year.

2 games out - Tigers, Rangers tied for 3WC at 1 game sub 500, Twins 1 back, Guardians 1 1/2 back, Jays & O's 2 back, Seattle 3 1/2 back.

Tie Breakers...

• vs Tigers: Jays up 2-1, 3 to go
• vs Rangers: down 0-4, 3 to go (lost series)
• vs Twins: down 3-4, done
• vs Cleve: up 2-1, 3 to go
• vs O's: up 4-3, 6 to go

So the Twins and Rangers have the tie breaker vs the Jays, the rest it is up to the Jays to decide, up by 1 in all 3 cases.

Final 3 of the season are at home vs Cincinnati - hopefully they either have the WC or are still fighting for it then. A week ago I'd have doubted it, but now ... well, hope springs eternal.

Texas now down 6-0 through 5

Getting outscored 15-13 and taking 3/4 games is a pretty efficient use of your offense, so hats off. Here's hoping we can continue like that - unless our offense catches fire all of a sudden, it's the only way to go on a run, IMHO.

looking ahead and projecting a bit

I think by the 24th the Tigers will hold the WC unless they sweep the White Sox this weekend then it would be Chicago. Texas will be very close because of their cushy schedule but they are not exactly on fire no. The Jays might well be next, but they'll be 3-4 games back unless they can find a way to win in Tampa.

From there they have 30 games to try and overcome that deficit.

When do we see Ricky T?

Tiedemann is still only throwing one inning every 3 days, and this bullpen can't afford that limitation. Let's see how he looks tonight.

Jays were 5-1 (the one loss being in the 12th inning) with Bateman in the lineup, then lose 7-0 when he sits.

Coincidence???

Jays offence is on track for their worst month so far at a 76 wRC+ with the lowest xwOBA in the AL.

Bateman is at 83 which isn’t great and Vlad even worse at 70.

I know everyone thinks the Jays are on fire this month but all the numbers offensively show the opposite which won’t trend well.

Pitching and defense are also part of winning baseball games tho!

The D is first in the AL this month but their pitching xFIP is last in the AL while the xERA is middle of the pack…

Does anyone think Vlad will actually turn it around this year?

"Pitching and defense are also part of winning baseball games tho!"

In August, Jays are 18th in FIP, 29th in XFIP, and 26th in WRC+ and are 8-5. Nothing has fundamentally changed. They still can't hit and have half a rotation. To my eye, they have been playing better defense and making fewer mistakes on bases but with below average to bad pitching and very bad hitting, that isn't going to make a difference in the long-run. If the Jays want to go on a real run, they are going to need to start to hit and that starts with Vlad.

Which includes many disastrous innings from the bottom of the staff - used in games when they were already trailing.


Doing Standings by AL Team WAR This Year

DIV

NYY 34.4
DET 29.1
TEX 27.5

WC

BOS 33.1
TBR 31.8
CHW 27.2

BAL 27.0 (-0.2)
CLE 26.9 (-0.3)
TOR 24.4 (-2.8)
SEA 24.3 (-2.9)
MIN 23.2 (-4.0)
HOU 21.0 (-6.2)

LAA 17.9
KCR 16.1
ATH 12.0


The Jays are entirely deserving of where they are in the actual standings right now.

And they're projected to be right in that mix the rest of the way:

AL Projected Remaining WAR

SEA 11.8
NYY 11.8
BOS 11.7
TBR 10.8

CLE 10.3
HOU 9.9
TEX 9.8
TOR 9.7
DET 9.6
BAL 9.6
MIN 9.2
CHW 9.0

KCR 8.1
LAA 7.1
ATH 6.9

But Uglyone… wouldn’t that also apply to all the other teams as well? “Bottom pitchers on staffs while trailing”…

The jays are a 75-80 win team as they’ve shown all year.

Jays have played 13 August games, every one vs a team currently over .500. Shocking our stats aren't better. In fact, our stats will almost assuredly get worse over the next 9 days as its NYY, TB, NYY.

But our last 30 games are all against teams that currently have losing records, with 18 of those vs teams behind us in the standings. Wild guess that our stats will miraculously improve during that final stretch.

If they can get lucky and get that win totally to 81-83 they might end up in a WC spot.

Does it matter?
Waldron allowed 3 runs in 0.1 inning.
He's not pitching high leverage innings.

The Jays destroyed Tyron Guerrero.
Boston has some bad pitchers too, in Justin Slaten and Brayan Bello.

Unfortunately, the Jays will have to try beating Cam Schlittler,  Ryan Weathers and Guerrit Cole.
The Yankees have a decent pen with Bednar, Blackburn, Headrick, Cruz and de los Santos.
They offloaded Doval and Bird.

The Jays didn't fortify the bullpen at the deadline.
On the contrary, they offloaded Hoffman.
They will have to keep overusing the top bullpen guys.

39 games left, and the Jays are 59-64.

To get to .500, they need to go 22-17. That’s not impossible, but we’ll see where they are after the next 9. The pitching staff is on fumes and for whatever reason Tampa is a house of horrors.

Brayan Bello has been a bad starting pitcher. Moved to the pen. As a reliever 48 IP, 0.75 ERA. That's lowest among relievers with 40 IP.

Next lowest ERA Mason Miller 0.88, then Varland 1.30, then the Yanks Headrick 1.47.

"When do we see Ricky T?"

When they get an extra man in September, IMO

chris... The Jays being one of the worst offensive teams yet being more competitive and better able to get the WC#3 spot are not mutually exclusive.

It's definitely weird "competing" for a "playoff" spot as you "move up" to .500 while all basic metrics point to a bottom feeder team. It's an exceptionally unexceptional year I guess.

Dalimon, I'd argue that their "wins and hot streak" over the last 2 weeks is largely due to clutch hitting, not solid offensive performance which isn't sustainable and unlikely to lead to future success...

I would that, from my perspective, the fact that the worst offense in baseball has never made the playoffs (according to ChatGPT) does mean that it’s mutually exclusive