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The Jays hosted the Royals ten days ago and lost two of three. They need to win at least two of three in KC to keep their playoff position. After KC they head out west to Sacramento before returning to face the Orioles.

SCHEDULE

Friday: Taillon vs Lynch

Saturday: Scherzer vs Lugo

Sunday: Opener/Arrighetti vs Dobnak


The Jays do not have their best starting pitching lineup in this series. When KC came into Toronto recently they were riding a nine game winning streak. They stayed hot in TO but now they have cooled off somewhat, going 6-4 in their last ten games.

We continue to wait and see which Vlad will show up for this series? Will Wednesday's Vlad reappear?

Jays at Royals; Sept 4-6; Time for Revenge? | 186 comments | Create New Account
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uglyone - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#483805) #
Just TKOB please.



Since the deadline.....



1. CF Bateman 102pa, .429babip, .380obp, 122wrc+, 6.4war650
2. DH Springer 92pa, .354babip, .348obp, 122wrc+, 2.8war650
3. 1B Guerrero 85pa, .239babip, .282obp, 81wrc+, 0.0war650
4. C Alejandro 103pa, .312babip, .379obp, 141wrc+, 8.2war650
5. 3B Okamoto 106pa, .270babip, .292obp, 96wrc+, 1.8war650
6. RF Lukes 109pa, .244babip, .274obp, 89wrc+, 2.4war650
7. 2B Clement 106pa, .227babip, .245obp, 41wrc+, -2.5war650
8. SS Gimenez 93pa, .354babip, .333obp, 94wrc+, 4.9war650
9. LF Straw 85pa, .323babip, .345obp, 118wrc+, 4.6war650

B. UT Smith 40pa, .313babip, .368obp, 153wrc+, 8.1war650
B. OF Sanchez 57pa, .300babip, .351obp, 110wrc+, 0.0war650
B. IF McAdoo 55pa, .371babip, .345obp, 108wrc+, 3.6war650
B. C Valenzuela 39pa, .182babip, .256obp, 41wrc+, 1.7war650

B. OF Cameron 25pa, .235babip, .200obp, 49wrc+, -5.2war650
B. UT Schneider 8pa, .000babip, .500obp, 125wrc+, 0.0war650
B. UT Keys 6pa, .667babip, .500obp, 170wrc+, 10.8war650
B. IF Urias 4pa, .333babip, .250obp, 102wrc+, 0.0war650




SP Cease 6gms, 6.2ip/gm, 41era-, 66fip-, 74xfip-, 7.7awar/32
SP Bieber 4gms, 6.1ip/gm, 62era-, 87fip-, 95xfip-, 4.8awar/32
SP Soriano 6gms, 5.5ip/gm, 105era-, 93fip-, 102xfip-, 2.1awar/32
SP Scherzer 5gms, 5.3ip/gm, 99era-, 97fip-, 118xfip-, 2.2awar/32
SP Taillon 2gms, 4.0ip/gm, 81era-, 115fip-, 118xfip-, 2.4awar/32

SP Yesavage 1gms, 2.0ip/gm, 0era-, 110fip-, 183xfip-, 1.6awar/32
SP Arrighetti 3gms, 3.7ip/gm, 158era-, 147fip-, 126xfip-, -2.7awar/32
SP Dallas 2gms, 2.8ip/gm, 230era-, 120fip-, 98xfip-, -4.0awar/32



RP Varland 12gms, 1.1ip/gm, 1.90gmli, 33era-, 67fip-, 74xfip-, 2.4awar/65
RP Rogers 14gms, 1.0ip/gm, 1.48gmli, 64era-, 116fip-, 126xfip-, 0.7awar/65
RP Miles 13gms, 1.1ip/gm, 0.96gmli, 32era-, 53fip-, 88xfip-, 2.5awar/65
RP Fluharty 16gms, 0.8ip/gm, 1.38gmli, 0era-, 74fip-, 130xfip-, 2.2awar/65
RP Fisher 16gms, 1.0ip/gm, 1.30gmli, 14era-, 96fip-, 112xfip-, 1.2awar/65
RP Little 13gms, 0.9ip/gm, 1.09gmli, 59era-, 93fip-, 82xfip-, 0.8awar/65
RP Sewald 7gms, 1.0ip/gm, 0.48gmli, 0era-, 81fip-, 136xfip-, 1.4awar/65
RP Tiedemann 2gms, 1.3ip/gm, 0.93gmli, 81era-, 92fip-, 120xfip-, 0.0awar/65

RP Waldron 4gms, 1.1ip/gm, 0.45gmli, 251era-, 74fip-, 150xfip-, -1.6awar/65
RP Lorenzen 2gms, 1.5ip/gm, 0.06gmli, 217era-, 169fip-, 127xfip-, -1.6awar/65
RP SWR 5gms, 1.7ip/gm, 0.42gmli, 208era-, 139fip-, 109xfip-, -2.6awar/65
RP Estrada 4gms, 0.9ip/gm, 2.25gmli, 178era-, 152fip-, 202xfip-, -3.3awar/65
RP Lee 4gms, 1.2ip/gm, 2.00gmli, 186era-, 191fip-, 172xfip-, -4.9awar/65
RP Mantiply 1gms, 1.3ip/gm, 1.18gmli, 326era-, 270fip-, 93xfip-, -6.5awar/65
RP Van Eyk 1gms, 1.0ip/gm, 0.03gmli, 0era-, 145fip-, 255xfip-, 0.0awar/65
uglyone - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#483806) #
Cleveland down 6-1 in gm1 of their doubleheader.
chris_jays - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#483807) #
Sigh… 6-6 now

Thanks for nothing Tigers
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#483808) #
Rocchio grand slam to tie it up. At least we got out of town before anything like that happened in the last couple of games.
uglyone - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#483809) #
Lol my bad sorry
GabrielSyme - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#483810) #
I'd be thrilled to get two of three without Cease or Soriano going.

Scherzer looked absolutely vintage against Seattle, and while it's too much to expect something along those lines, he has looked pretty good of late. If we do make it to the postseason, he'd be the third starter right now.
TamRa - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#483811) #
Interesting discussion Wilner had with Mantiply/Sewald including a reference to the '23 D'Backs who got in with 84 wins as the sixth seed and then swept the Brewers and Dodgers, upset the Phillies in the NLCS to get to the World Series.

They had three good hitters, 2 good starters and a mediocre pen.

As of September 3, there were four contenders effectively tied for the 6th seed including the D'Backs. The went 14-11 in their remaining 25 games.

Also, their RS/RA was -26 on September 3
TamRa - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#483812) #
Danial Lynch !V has started five games, his ERA in those 6.32 over 15/2 IP

We don't know what we're going to get from Tillon but the opportunity to keep the offensive improvement going is on the table.

Lugo was awful in 4 of 6 August starts, and only had one really good one (which we are aware of) for an 8.31 ERA on the month
(Albeit the FIP is much better)

Dobniak got roughed up by the Marlins last time out but has been otherwise irrationally good for a journeyman guy with his track record.


greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#483814) #
6-6, 9th inning, Tigers have a runner on second
GabrielSyme - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#483815) #
Rocchio with a walk-off dinger to add to his earlier grand slam.

Just like they wrote it.
hypobole - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#483816) #
Only Angels, Pirates and Mets have been better at choking this year than the Tigers.

McClanahan on IL with forearm tightness.
Gerry - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#483817) #
Taillon activated and starts tonight.

Tiedemann optioned.

Luis Urias reinjured his quad prior to his rehab game yesterday so its back to square one for him.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#483818) #
Kauffman Park is pitcher's park with a roomy outfield.
The PCL park in Sacramento is the opposite.

In KC, the Jays need their best outfield and to make plays behind the starters.

The Royals are 37-32 at home. Cleveland is 34-38. The A's are 25-44 at home 
KC's pen has Nate Pearson, Craig Kimbrel and Anthony Gose.
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#483819) #
LRJ lines out to right-centre with runners on the corners and two out. Phew. Still 1-0 Boston after three innings.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#483820) #
That's the Forever Fountains City Connect unis.

Maybe they can get to the pen early.
Nigel - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#483821) #
It’s so nice to be on the other end of things for once. Taillon has given up rocket after rocket and he’s through two with only one run:)
BlueJayWay - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#483822) #
The Jays need to go into next season with 22 starters just to make sure
Nigel - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#483823) #
I wish nothing but health for Taillon and the pen is going to take a beating with his injury. However, in the narrow view of this game, Taillon’s injury is probably a good thing.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#483824) #
If he'd been feeling great, he would have used more breaking balls.
chris_jays - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#483825) #
Say what you will about Straw but he’s been great since the trade deadline!
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#483826) #
It's time for Chapman in Baltimore.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#483827) #
No Straw argument from me.
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#483828) #
Boston beat the O’s 1-0 behind Suarez (7 IP), Whitlock (1 IP) and Chapman (1 IP). That is their prototypical way of winning close games.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#483829) #
Unlike the Guardians, the Royals can be neutralized with lefties out of the pen.
Nigel - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#483830) #
Nice simple 32 pitch inning for Little. If Taillon avoids the IL then I’d assume Little gets sent down.
chris_jays - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#483831) #
I’d be shocked if Little went down… his ERA is under 2.00 now since his last recall.

I’d bet we’ll see Dallas for Taillon
scottt - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#483832) #
Pretty sure Taillon is done.
Elbow discomfort.
They can get a middle relief guy up and switch him back in 5 days.
Nigel - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#483833) #
You could send Dallas down but, at best, the team has three starters. The team needs multi inning relievers more than their third lefty reliever.
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#483834) #
CLE came back to tie it 3-3 on a two-run Bazzana HR after pesky Kwan worked a leadoff walk.

At least the O’s lost and the Rangers are losing.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#483835) #
Detroit pitcher was Jacob Waguespack.
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#483836) #
Grand slam Texas. Now 6-5 Tampa
scottt - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#483837) #
Cleveland won.
chris_jays - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#483838) #
Dallas isn’t up Nigel… I’m saying they’ll bring him up for Taillon.
Nigel - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#483839) #
We’re working at cross purposes here. My point was that if Taillon somehow wasn’t put on the IL then they would send Little down for a multi inning reliever. I agree that if Taillon goes on the IL that’s a different situation.
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#483840) #
The hapless Tigers blew another one. Cleveland wins 4-3 in the 10th.
TamRa - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#483842) #
Kinda wonder how Hinch can keep his job after stuff like this.
uglyone - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#483843) #
Tigers are the worst. F run diff.
Glevin - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#483844) #
Well, I understood trading Skubal but Tigers could have still competed without him but they didn’t try at all. They had best run differential by far of contenders but traded off pieces and didn’t add anyone. Lots of teams just don’t try to win. Anyway, huge win. It feels like there have been a lot of these games where bullpen has had to go like 7 innings and has done it well.
greenfrog - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#483845) #
I think Delauter left with a wrist sprain and Martinez left with a shoulder contusion. Cleveland still won but those injuries could hurt them this month if they linger.
TamRa - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#483846) #
If they bring Dallas up again, he has to STAY up or they risk losing him (he's already been optioned 4 times)

Van Eck got kinda pounded tonight but if they want some length Wednesday they might still go with him rather than put themselves in a corner on Dallas.

Alternately, they could DFA Celluci and bring Estrada back since he's already passed through once, they might think that's a safer move.
SK in NJ - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#483847) #
Needed a laugher tonight, and it’s nice to have a long man being used like a long man. Leverage arms all fresh for next two games.

Sucks that the Guardians won both of their games. They also have an “easy”schedule down the stretch, so it’s not going to be easy to overtake them. Just have to keep playing like this and let the chips fall where they may. The Jays haven’t really had an extended winning streak all season. If they can just get one little 5-6-7 game win streak here then it would make a huge difference. Going to be tough to do with the rotation so depleted.
scottt - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#483848) #
Detroit is tanking and it's a road game for them .
TamRa - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#483849) #
Just seeing the Urias post - in that case shifting him to the 60 might be the obvious play if they need a 40 man spot.


It's too bad that the two starters we got in deadline trades (at AAA) are both kinda sucky.

Here's a bold idea - call up Nolan Perry.
hypobole - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#483850) #
Josh Winkowski just threw 3 shutout innings for Dunedin. 38 pitches, 26 strikes.
TamRa - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#483851) #
A key point in the remaining season:

While the Jays play the hapless Tigers, the Guardians will be playing the Yankees.
TamRa - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#483852) #
and at the same time Texas will be playing Boston.
chris_jays - Friday, September 04 2026 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#483853) #
Hmmmm. Think you mean Cleveland will be playing the white Sox?

No more Yankees for them this season.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#483854) #
King better than Perry at AA.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#483855) #
DeLauter has been great this season (133 wRC+, 147 wRC+ in the second half). He’s arguably their best position player right now. Vogt says he’s day-to-day for now with a right wrist sprain. It will be a big blow to Cleveland if he misses any significant time this month.
TamRa - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#483856) #
"King better than Perry at AA."

Marginally, in a small sample. But Perry is (depending on whether they still have to pretend the Rule 5 expectations apply) might have to be added this winter, King absolutely won't.

If I was going to argue with myself about Perry - Tallion's next turn in on 4 days rest, which Perry has only done twice this year.
TamRa - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#483857) #
"Think you mean Cleveland will be playing the white Sox?"

Indeed, I looked at the wrong column on my spreadsheet.

The Twins get the Yankees but ATM I'm not worried about the Twins.

On Monday Cleveland goes to Baltimore and I think I'd root for the O's with the knowledge that the Jays still have six games to settle their hash if they can.
June Northey - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#483858) #
With Cleveland getting hot, might be worth thinking about the White Sox - just need to beat one of them and the guys behind the Jays to get in. White Sox are 3 1/2 ahead of the Jays, 2 1/2 ahead of Cleveland. Texas 1 back of the Jays, O's 2 back, Twins 3 1/2, Mariners 4 1/2. Not impossible, not easy, but not impossible to pass the White Sox instead of Cleveland. Of course the White Sox play Minny, Pittsburgh, St Louis, Cleveland, Detroit, KC, and Colorado so their schedule isn't exactly hard.
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#483859) #
The Jays win brought them to .500 for the 1st time since June 22.

The last time the Jays were over .500 was when they were at 4 wins, 3 losses on April 3rd.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#483860) #

Ernie Clement:

“We're a really good baseball team. It was kind of only a matter of time before things started clicking.”
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 07:00 AM EDT (#483861) #
Michael Lorenzen picked up the 3 inning save last night.

Quiz - cHow many 3 inning saves do the Jays have this year?
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#483862) #
Giving Perry a start for the Blue Jays is a bold idea. I could see him pitching 4-5 good innings for the team. He just turned 23, so he’s no longer a very young prospect. The stakes would be very high, though, and there is no way to know for sure how he would handle the pressure.
pooks137 - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#483863) #
I guessed 3, as I had a vague notion that Lazaro Estrada & SWR might've had one each.

Which neither does.

One of the guys with a 3-inning save this year last had a save in 2016.

chris_jays - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#483864) #
Obviously very early days still in September but wRC+ for some players to watch:

Myles Straw: 191
Luis Robert Jr.: 172
Sean Keys: 170
Interestingly, Robert's defence is grading out quite poor so far.
85bluejay - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#483865) #
I would guess that veteran starter Michael Lorenzen gets first crack at a start.
chris_jays - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#483866) #
The risk with putting someone like Perry on the 40 man for a start is that if there's a lockout next year, all players on the 40 man are prohibited from playing.
The rest of the minors continues with the exception of 40 man guys so he'd lose some development time.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#483867) #
Good point about Perry. It’s a challenging situation. There are 20 games left and every win and loss is important (at least for now). I think you want to push your chips in as much as possible in an effort to win every single game, but at the same time you don’t want to compromise a key prospect’s offseason development.
Nigel - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#483868) #
One of the good parts of last night’s game, among many, was that Keys hit a breaking ball for his HR. He’d lost the plot entirely on breaking balls before he was sent down.
scottt - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#483869) #
He was instructed to focus on hitting breaking  balls when back in Buffalo.
He must have shown something there for him to be back.
There are a lot of junk throwers in AAA.
scottt - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#483870) #
I love that story about Bateman struggling to hit change up recently.
He moved to the front of the batter's box knowing that the pitcher/catcher would probably notice and throw a fastball so he shuffled back as soon as the pitcher started his wind up.
And he got a hit.
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#483871) #
Canada Day was bullpen day. Pat Corbin came on to start the 4th with a 5-0 lead, the Jays tacked on another 4 and Corbin finished the game for a 5 inning save.

That was the only other "3 inning save" this year, even if it technically wasn't. Coincidentally, that was also the game Keys hit his 1st and only other HR. So 3 inning saves and Keys HRs seem to be irrevocably intertwined.
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#483872) #
Keys still having issues with breakers. Thursday he struck out swinging twice on inside pitches, one labelled a sweeper, the other a slider. Both pitches broke so far inside they came closer to hitting him than catching the strike zone.
Nigel - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#483873) #
I’ll admit that I will be skeptical of Keys helping the team until I see him handle breaking balls (at least to some degree). He’s looked so completely lost against them to date that it’s a major concern. One AB doesn’t change that. However, credit where credit is due as last night did represent some progress.
pooks137 - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#483875) #
On both the broadcast & MLB Gameday, the curveball that Keys golfed to RF was several inches below the strikezone.

While it's hard to argue with the result (and was hit off a fringe bullpen type in a 8-1 ballgame IIRC), in terms of process, Keys' 2nd dinger of the season was struck on a pitch he would normally have no business offering at.

Nigel - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#483876) #
I agree that, in one sense, the process for Keys wasn’t great on that HR swing. It was clearly a ball. On the other hand, as hypobole noted, it’s that exact pitch (breaking ball down and in on the back foot) that he has been getting destroyed by so far. Sitting on it and hitting it hard has some overall process benefits going forward.
scottt - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#483879) #
Most breaking balls are out of the zone.
Most pitchers only throw the curve in the zone as a surprise first pitch.
The effectiveness of the curve is that it has to look like a fastball out of the hand.

They don't want Keys to walk. They want Keys to hit homers. They don't care if he has to golf curve balls to do it. 

Nobody had issues with Bichette fouling balls.
Nobody should have issues with a hitter hitting homeruns on balls.

TamRa - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#483880) #
"there is no way to know for sure how he would handle the pressure"

Plus, there's the different ball. Anyone going straight from AA to the majors is bold now days.

"if there's a lockout next year..."

I thought about that, because it had been on my mind relative to the report about the Rule 5 (if there's definitely not going to be a R5 draft then don't add any of the guys you'd normally protect so they can be assured of a normal spring) so yeah, absolutely part of the calculation.


Gerry - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#483882) #
Tiedemann's back in place of Taillon (IL).
chris_jays - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#483883) #
Has Max forbidden Sanchez to ever see the field now when he starts?
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#483884) #
Sal Perez has crushed Scherzer in his career: 14/38 with 4 HR and only 3 strikeouts. I guess we’ll see which aging veteran has the upper hand in the matchup tonight.
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#483886) #
Max: No Sanchez
Schneider: YES CHEF!!
scottt - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#483887) #
The problem last time was facing Perez with runners in scoring position.
pooks137 - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#483888) #
They don't want Keys to walk. They want Keys to hit homers. They don't care if he has to golf curve balls to do it.

Nobody had issues with Bichette fouling balls. Nobody should have issues with a hitter hitting homeruns on balls.

Bad ball hitters like Bichette or Vlad Sr. or Clement are the 1% of the 1% contact hitters who can consistently get away with things that even average MLB players simply can't.

If most breaking balls end up out of the zone, Keys should be working on recognizing them out of the hand & laying off them, not trying to golf pitches 4 inches below the zone over the RF wall like low-ball hitting freaks like Nathan Lukes & Jesus Sanchez regularly do.

If Keys is being coached to sit breaking ball, he should be trying to identify mistake pitches & hanging curves that MLB sluggers regularly punish. Not chasing pitcher's pitches in the dirt.

It was one swing though in a laugher of a game as a sub for the regulars.

I like the notion from one of the above posters that Keys might've been working on hitting backfoot breaking balls in a MLB blowout game.

But just because Keys can sometimes launch pitcher's pitches curveballs into the stratosphere doesn't mean it's a good ongoing plate discipline approach.

scottt - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#483889) #
That's was predictable.
KC is running 6 left bats, 1 switch hitter plus Witt and Perez.
hypobole - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#483892) #
Some really good position players last year have had huge drop offs this year. The two here, Cal, Trea, Bo elsewhere. Different reasons why for the different players, but one reason I have not seen or heard for any has been lack of effort.

However there seems to be one outlier, one that for the Jays seems to be a dodged bullet - Kyle Tucker.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0iEXcqN3gY
lexomatic - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#483893) #
Curious how much more often the Jays are scoring in the first compared to before the trade deadline.
Nigel - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#483894) #
Scoring in the first becomes significantly easier when your leadoff hitter has a .400 OBP:). I’m scratching my head to remember the last truly elite OBP hitter that the Jays have had as a leadoff hitter?

World class slide by Vladdy.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#483895) #
Bear down, Scherzer…
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#483896) #
Mad Max is done, I would rather run Perry out there at this point.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#483897) #
Springer had a .399obp last year!
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#483898) #
Phew. That could have been much worse for Scherzer B1.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#483899) #
Do not let Lugo off the hook. I’ve seen this happen with him before. His pitch count is high. Crush him now before he settles in.
Nigel - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#483900) #
I guess you could use Springer but he hit in various spots in the lineup though.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#483901) #
Disappointing PA by Springer and Vladdy after a promising start to the second inning. Springer especially chasing a 1-0 low pitch to fly out with Lugo on the ropes (very high pitch count and runners on base).

On the positive side of the ledger, looks like Scherzer may be settling down.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#483902) #
6-0 Tigers over Guardians eighth inning. I don’t think they’re going to blow this one.
scottt - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#483908) #
4 hits for Okamoto.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#483909) #
Bullpen gets 3 innings here and we're the 3rd wild card.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#483912) #
Great test to see if Sewald can actually be a clutch ROOGY for us.
Magpie - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#483913) #
Springer had a .399obp last year!

He actually had a .435 OBP when he was the leadoff hitter. Thing is, he was only the leadoff hitter in 39 games.

A .400 OBP is a very high bar - in 50 seasons, only 15 Jays have managed it, and none of them batted leadoff (OK, Alomar for 10 games one year.) And it's never been a characteristic of this franchise to have a good leadoff hitter. They did once go three years having Alfredo Griffin lead off...

The best leadoff hitter in franchise history, by a comfortable margin, was Shannon Stewart from 1999-2001. The team also got surprisingly decent production from a Russ Adams-Reed Johnson combination in 2006.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#483914) #
I'm enjoying the Sewald experience.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#483915) #
Iirc George was our leadoff guy thru the playoffs, no?
chris_jays - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#483916) #
The tough thing with baseball and stats is the consistency required.

Vlad has a great game a few days ago but then a couple average games in a row feels like it’s right back to the prior Vlad.

It’ll be interesting to see where his wRC+ for the month ends up falling.
Nigel - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#483917) #
A .400 OBP is a totally unrealistic standard. Funnily enough, Stewart was the player I had to go back to as a comp.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#483918) #
Wildcard.

First time we've been above .500 since gm7 of the season on apr3. Hilarious.
Nigel - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#483919) #
Hilariously, Mad Max is currently the game 3 starter in a playoff series. I wonder if 2027 has entered anyone’s thoughts?
June Northey - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#483920) #
Jays in playoff position and over 500!!!!
greenfrog - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#483921) #
Rangers, O’s, White Sox all losing. Great night all around (so far) for the resurgent Blue Jays.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#483922) #
Daaaaaaaaa rangers lose!
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#483923) #
Daaaaaaaaa white sox lose!
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#483924) #
Daaaaaa orioles lose!
SK in NJ - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#483926) #
Loving how the team is playing and has played for the last month plus. Fun baseball again.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#483927) #
Daaaaaa astros lose!
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#483928) #
Would be pretty funny if we caught both HOU (1.0gms back) and CHX (2.5gms back) and the AL East finished top 4 in the league.
uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#483929) #
Last 41 Games: 26-15, .634, +30, +.73/gm

Since Deadline: 20-11, .645, +25, +.81/gm

Last 27 Games: 18-9, .667, +28, +1.04/gm
TamRa - Saturday, September 05 2026 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#483930) #
"Last 41 Games: 26-15, .634"

Top of the list:

Tor 26-15; 177 runs, 143 against
TB 26-15; 183-166
Bost 26-16; 213-174
NYY 24-16; 163-133
Hou 23-16; 172-164


Baltimore during the same period: 19-21
Chicago 20-21
Cleveland 18-22
Texas 19-23

But the first six games there were 3-3 for the Jays.
Mark it from July 28 instead: 23-12 (.657)
Keep that up and they win 84






TamRa - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#483931) #
And Seattle loses.

Every other team that was considered a legit contender a month ago lost tonight except the Twins.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#483932) #
As much as we worried about 'catching/passing" other teams, truth is that it's no coincidence that we got the wildcard the day we finally got over .500. The other teams' performance didn't really have much to do with it looks like.
Michael - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#483933) #
"the last truly elite OBP hitter that the Jays have had as a leadoff hitter?"

I know he wasn't at his best during the rental but I think the GOAT lead off hitter who was with the Jays for one significant part of one season would be the late great Rickey Henderson. His career OBP is over 400 and his OBP was over 400 every year from 1989 through 1997. We had him for 1/4 of 1993 and he slashed 289/432/474 for a 906 OPS good for a 148 OPS+ with 53 SB against only 8 CS in 1993. Unfortunately that was based on 90 games in Oakland with a 327/469/553 1.023 OPS (a 182 OPS+) and a much more modest 215/356/319 675 OPS (a 83 OPS+) in 44 regular season games for us. Still flags fly forever and 1993 was a win.
92-93 - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#483934) #
The notion that how many GB the Jays were didn’t matter because of how many bad teams were ahead of them was always silly. If the Jays started to play well, they would be fine.
92-93 - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#483935) #
Honourable mention to Yunel’s .369 in 2011. He hit .326/.418/.432 leading off the game.
Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#483936) #
The team also got surprisingly decent production from a Russ Adams-Reed Johnson combination in 2006.

Oops. They got very middle-of-the-pack leadoff work from Adams-Johnson in 2005 - it was Sparky and Rios doing the good work in 2006.

Can I still make a Data Table? And what handy metric serves to rank leadoff seasons? (I dunno, I'll go with sOPS+ because it's right there.)

The following are the best work by leadoff hitters over the many, many years...
	Players	                     G	 PA   AB   R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB   SO  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS GDP HBP  sOPS+
																					
2000	Stewart 136, Cruz 25	   162	776  712  129  223  49  5  31   93  23  5  51  110  .313  .363  .527  .889  13  7    135
2001	Stewart 101, Cruz 53	   162	768  712  114  206  53  6  24   66  29 10  50  122  .289  .340  .482  .822   7  5    125
2021	Semien 88, Springer 56	   162	749  670  129  178  42  2  42   99  12  3  69  168  .266  .337  .522  .859  12  5    123
2006	Johnson 104, Rios 34	   162	763  682  118  208  47  4  21   87  13  5  57  119  .305  .374  .478  .852  12 20    123
2025	Bichette 82, Springer 39   162	761  699  111  203  42  1  30  100  11  4  51  121  .290  .344  .482  .826  13  7    118
2002	Stewart 124	           162	761  690  119  201  42  8  14   53  15  5  58   80  .291  .355  .436  .791  13 11    117

2020	Biggio 46	            60	284  238   41   61  18  0   9   33   7  0  39   67  .256  .367  .445  .813   3  4    116
1991	Whyte 156	           162	755  680  111  189  41 10  17   61  36 11  57  142  .278  .337  .443  .780   8  7    115
2003	Johnson 72, Stewart 71	   162	787  699  128  201  38  4  19   84   6  5  54   96  .288  .350  .435  .785  11 20    114
1986	Fernandez 102, Garcia 28   163	768  724   96  219  35  7  16   82  23 12  31   69  .302  .335  .436  .771   9  6    114
1987	Fernandez 115, Liriano 36  163	768  724   96  219  35  7  16   82  23 12  31   69  .302  .335  .436  .771   9  6    114

1999	Stewart 139	           162	781  697  118  216  37  3  11   74  40 16  68  104  .310  .377  .419  .796  11  9    111
2009	Scutaro 144	           162	782  666  120  186  38  2  18   76  14  5  97   94  .279  .372  .423  .795  12  6    110
1993	Whyte 103, Henderson 44	   162	766  663  140  175  37  5  18   55  51  7  90  115  .264  .358  .416  .774   3  8    110
2022	Springer 126	           162	758  680  106  175  29  4  27   92  15  2  59  133  .257  .322  .431  .753  12  8    110
1983	Garcia 89, Collins 54	   162	760  698  114  211  30 10   6   51  47 18  51   74  .302  .351  .400  .750   7  3    110
Hey, I still got it.
92-93 - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#483938) #
I don’t understand why Escobar doesn’t make that list.
hypobole - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#483939) #
In 498 P A's, Yunel hit .292/.366/.423 out of the 1 hole. But a number of others hit there as well. Rajai and McCoy combined for 248 pretty awful PA's.

So the combined line of 755 PA's was only .262/.335/.375.
92-93 - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#483940) #
Oh, we're looking at leadoff spots, not hitters? I definitely missed that, as most of those don't even add up to 162.
chris_jays - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#483941) #
Hypothetically, if you had to set the playoff roster today, does Sanchez make it?

Or do you choose Keys over Sanchez? Smith over Sanchez?
Nigel - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#483942) #
Thank you Magpie:). From memory, ranking just by OBP, I would have ranked the all time leadoff hitters as Stewart, Fernandez and Whyte. Seeing that list, that sort of feels right but only if you add longevity/frequency of doing the job to the criteria. I had forgotten just how good Scutaro was in that role.
Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#483943) #
I don’t understand why Escobar doesn’t make that list.

Not his fault, he was perfectly good in his 110 games at the top of the order. These are team numbers, and it was the guys in the other 52 games - mostly Mike McCoy and Rajai Davis - who dragged the team's leadoff nunbers down into the ditch.
pooks137 - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#483944) #
The issue with having 5-6 teams ahead of you in the Wildcard Race is that it's really hard to make up ground on the entire field.

When you win, you only gain ground on the few teams that lost. When you lose, you lose ground on mostly everyone.

The only way to climb is to consistently win and make small gains on the field in aggregate. You can't simply rely on the team above you going cold or beating them in a head-to-head as you can when chasing a single team.

Of course, playing 6 weeks of .630 baseball cures a lot of problems.

It also helps that all the teams ahead of the Jays have played like the sub .500 mediocre ballclubs that they are over the same stretch. While a depleted Toronto somehow found it's 2015 & 2025 post-ASB form.

Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#483945) #
As hypobole already pointed out...
Mike Green - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#483946) #
Keys hits sliders fine.  He does sometimes swing on excellent sliders that he shouldn't, but he and everybody else does that (including Springer, Guerrero Jr. and just about everybody else).  He regularly tattoos sliders in a mediocre location from RHPs, let alone hanging sliders.  And he lays off bad ones away from RHPs.  

Keys does have an issue with the sweeper inside from a RHP, and he will need to learn how to lay off that. 

I'd give Keys the start today.  It's a 9 day stretch of games and resting Springer on a day game after a night game is a good idea.  Springer's speed has been ticking up as the season has gone along (it's now up to average), and not overdoing it is important.  Personally, I doubt that there is much, if anything, separating Keys and Springer vs. a RHP at is point, and having Springer at this best (including the ability to steal a base now and then) is worth it.  

The big issue is the pitching, of course.  How does Nolan Perry fit in?  You could imagine Perry and Yesavage forming a nice tandem and effectively being the 3rd starter behind Cease and Soriano at the end of the season and into the playoffs.  Whether Perry is ready for that from both a pitching and emotional/maturity standpoint, I have no idea.  With Yesavage, the issue is simply about his physical readiness.  And as for the impact of the lockout, I'm not sure which way it cuts. Obviously if it's a full-season lockout, it's better if the player is in the minor leagues and can develop.  But if it's a 1/4 season lockout, it might work to the advantage of a player like Perry by constraining his seasonal workload.  I have no idea what the right thing to do is.  
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#483947) #
"The issue with having 5-6 teams ahead of you in the Wildcard Race is that it's really hard to make up ground on the entire field."

I think the point is that that is mostly an illusion.

Just hit the target wins and it doesn't actually matter how many teams were in front of you.

We knew that if we got above .500 we'd likely be in a playoffs spot regardless of the fact so many teams were ahead of us at the time.
Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#483949) #
Another thought that has started turning round in what's left of my mind - wasn't this team like 10 games underwater? Wasn't that just a couple of weeks ago? Weren't they about to give up and sell all their free agents at the deadline? Didn't they do that very thing? And now this?

So I'm looking at the most dramatic turnarounds over the final two months in franchise history. As you know, I'm a simple fellow and I like simple methods, and what could be simpler than comparing the team's winning percentage over the first four months with its winning percentage over the last two?

It's almost certainly never going to get more dramatic than 2015 - that team played .510 ball through July and .690 ball the rest of the way. That's a .180 swing in the winning percentage, The other most impressive closing kick came from the 1998 team, which played .491 ball through July and .654 ball (plus .163) the rest of the way. Right now, the 2026 team is nestled right in between those two teams. Remarkably, matching the 2015 turnaround is actually within reach - if pretty unlikely - for the current squad (they would need to go 13-6 the rest of the way.)

We all remember what happened in 2015 - Anthopoulos made multiple additions at the deadline, some big, some small, all useful (Price, Tulowitzki, Revere, Lowe, Hawkins) - and the team promptly put together the best month in franchise history. The 1998 team went the other way, dumping multiple regulars (Guzman, Myers, Stanley, Sprague, Phillips) at the deadline. Which turned out to be addition by subtraction, mostly because the team defense went from ghastly to pretty decent. This year's team did neither of those things. Or both.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#483950) #
What's interesting is that it doesn't even feel like we've been particularly red hot or that all the players are going near their best or anything.
scottt - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#483951) #
The issue with having 5-6 teams ahead of you is that you have to play better than all of them.
If only 1 of those teams goes on a 10 games winning streak, it's mostly over.
You would need a 10 games winning streak of your own to get back a few games behind them.

Winning series against teams ahead of you helps a lot.

Now if all those teams play .500 ball, it doesn't really matter.

Fangraphs has the Jays playoffs odds at 50.3%.
Bref has it at 53.1%.

Just half the way there.
Having another 5th starter would help.

Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#483952) #
Soriano for Gausman is pretty much a wash. The one clear upgrade has been in CF, where Bateman has been much, much better than Varsho.

Two key RH bats (Kirk and Springer) have come back to life. One more would be ideal.
92-93 - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#483953) #
Yep. It was thought this couldn’t happen without Vladdy and well…it has. And that’s with Bieber and Yesavage going down too.

Turns out all the smart baseball people were wrong about pretty much everything.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#483954) #
I think they should give Perry a shot, especially if they get a bit of separation in the WC race. With Cease and Soriano at the top of the rotation, a strong bullpen, and the team playing well, they should go all in to win it all (noting that on March 27 I predicted a Blue Jays WS championship this year).
92-93 - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#483955) #
As for leadoff hitters (not spots) - I like to look at what a guy does to lead off innings, and especially the first one. That can set the tone for the whole game. Escobar’s ‘11 was leaps and bounds better than Scutaro’s ‘09 in that regard; Scutaro was simply just the better hitter overall.

Bateman has ridiculous numbers leading off innings so far (.526 in the 1st). When he got picked off yesterday I thought to myself - well at least he worked a walk and the pitcher was already 10 pitches in before recording an out.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#483956) #
Here's the way I saw it.  The records of both the 2015 and the 2026 team at the deadline were not reflective of their actual quality.  The .500 record of the 2015 team at the deadline was a reflection of gross underperformance vs. Pythagoras.  The below-.500 record of the 2026 team was a reflection of gross injury luck, and gross underperformance from their 27 year old offensive lynchpin .Kirk recovered from his finger injury about a month after his return to the lineup.  He was hitting ,202/.273/.315 on July 12, and it has been a steady climb since then.  

With Bateman's addition and Kirk's recovery, they have an offence even if Guerrero Jr. is not hitting, and a very good one if he does (or if Keys hits the way I think he will sometime very soon). And if it turns out that Yesavage is ready, they can have a good front three of Cease, Soriano and either a Miles/Yesavage or Perry/Yesavage tandem, with a terrific ace reliever and a fine setup man.  

I'd put this season firmly in the youneverknow category.  
92-93 - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#483957) #
As for Perry - I had never really heard of the guy until the other day, but if he's one of their 5 best starting options he is an absolute no-brainer to call up. Maximizing your chance at a HOU/CWS path to the ALCS is well worth the risk that a prospect can't pitch in the minors next year. That shouldn't even be a consideration.
SK in NJ - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#483958) #
The Jays were 48-58 right before the trade deadline with a -52 run differential. The only reason they were anywhere near a playoff spot was because the AL was, and still is, horrendous. The FO didn't even have optimism in this team as they literally sold whatever they could get reasonable value for at the deadline. Soriano has two years of control beyond this season so that was the logic in acquiring him.

I'm glad the Jays are playing well, and hope it turns into a playoff spot in a few weeks, but not sure what the argument here is. Nothing has changed except the Jays have played .650 ball since that 48-58 record. I think most people would have agreed that if the Jays had a .650 run in them then they'd have a good shot at a third WC spot. It was just hard to see them actually doing it.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#483959) #
Sure there was a chance another wildcard contender got hot, but it was always unlikely that the 3rd WC would end up significantly better than the .500 level it had sat at all year long.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#483960) #
I didn't find it hard to see this jays team playing at that kind of level tho. They had already shown us they could do it before.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#483961) #
Is the AL actually horrendous tho?

Jays now only 3gms back of the NL wildcard, and i'd say we're a better team than the Dbacks, too.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#483962) #
Ugly, what is the “target wins”? You’re glossing over the exact reason why having more teams in the race creates uncertainty and lowers the odds - more teams means a wider range of outcomes and allows more opportunities for someone to get hot. So far, thankfully, the hottest team has been Toronto but that was not inevitable. They still only have 3 starters, holding this position will not be easy.

Also, I think Brett Bateman’s performance easily qualifies as red hot. A 400 OBP and a 125 WRC+ were absolutely not within the range of expected outcomes when he was called up. Thankfully, he’s been amazing and the team has greatly benefited. Scherzer had his best start in years last week, that’s a massive outlier IMO. Seawald has also greatly surpassed expectations.

I have seen the past two weeks as an exceptional run, and I hope they keep catching breaks and can stay hot, but just because it happened doesn’t mean it was destined to happen
scottt - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#483963) #
Perry is not really built.
They already have guys who can go 3 innings.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#483964) #
I think the WC has sat at .500 all yrwr long so that was the base target, but likely a bit better than that given that the team that grabs the spot is the hottest down the stretch.

I don't think it was reasonable to think that a WC that had sat at .500 all year would end up needing a .550 or anything in the end.
hypobole - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#483965) #
One big reason that's been hardly mentioned for the Jays hot streak has been the bullpen. 4.29 FIP is 21st, 3.34 ERA is 9th. 116 IP is 3rd. 10 W tied 1st. 13 SV 1st.

RP WPA Leaders past 30 days

TOR 4.73
NYY 4.47
ATL 3.71
PHI 3.48
PIT 2.82

Shutdowns/Meltdowns past 30 days

LAD 44/19
TOR 38/14
BAL 32/15
NYY 32/12
BOS 31/12






pooks137 - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#483966) #
The issue with having 5-6 teams ahead of you is that you have to play better than all of them. If only 1 of those teams goes on a 10 games winning streak, it's mostly over.

You would need a 10 games winning streak of your own to get back a few games behind them.

scottt's post puts my thoughts into words better than my own.

Playing since the trade deadline at a 100-win pace both fixed a lot of problems & was highly unlikely after the preceding 100+ game performance from the 2026 squad.

But even with the 2026 team's historic second half run, they are still barely occupying WC3 with 19 games left to go.

Playing at a 100-win pace wasn't itself sufficient to get back into the playoff picture.

Like scottt mentioned, it required the stars to similarly align where none of Cleveland, Texas, Baltimore, Minnesota, Seattle or Detroit even played >.500 baseball themselves to resemble comeptition as playoff contenders.

Picking 6 middling MLB clubs & relying on none of them to play above their true talent during any given month is a risky bet.

Nigel - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#483967) #
Yeah the idea that they were behind 5-6 teams being irrelevant isn’t correct. Obviously, the Jays own performance is the biggest chunk of the story but the odds of all of the teams ahead of them floundering were low too.
hypobole - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#483968) #
One stat few if any mentioned that made the Jays seem worse than they actually were is SOS. Jays had played the toughest schedule in the AL by far.

Kinda lucky that we have one of the easier schedules remaining now that were down to a Spahn and Sain starting staff.
chris_jays - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#483969) #
Orioles place Robert Jr. on the IL with a hamstring injury.

Wow, dodged a bullet there!!
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#483970) #
The teams ahead of them haven't floundered tho. They've just kept on being mediocre teams like they were.
hypobole - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#483971) #
It's only money.

Does anyone think Rogers cares that the FO saved them potentially flushing $8 million down the toilet?
chris_jays - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#483972) #
Yes? Otherwise they’d have an unlimited budget and would have made the move regardless of any risk.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#483973) #
good point on the SOS, hypo. that was always a big factor both in their previous record and their recent record.

I also don't think anyone really believes that we're on some kind of "historic run" here. We know that there's a whole bunch of ways this team could have been even better on this run.

and as for our FO's actions at the deadline, i don't think you can use that to say they were giving up on the year - quite the opposite. I think Soriano had been better than Gausman this year and they expected that to continue. I think it's clear now that the "light" return for Gausman was simply our FO being much more confident that Bateman was already an excellent defensive CF - it explains the return for Gausman and the willingness to lose Varsho. The 126wrc+ from bateman is an unlikely surprise, but even if he was more at his projected 85-90wrc+ level that still plays for a good defensive CF and at least matches what they were getting from Varsho. I don't think they thought they were losing much in Hoffman and I think they thought there was a good chance that Smith could be valuable the rest of the year. Obviously wasn't an "all-in" deadline but I think they felt there was a good chance the team was upgraded.

In the end it comes down to just how good you thought the team was, and I don't think just looking at the season totals to date was ever a good measure of that. For me it was pretty easy to feel that of all the teams in the wildcard race that the Jays were the best team and likeliest to win the race.

on a more "baseball philosophy" note, I know that people find the Playoffs Odds valuable, and in general the prevailing wisdom is that losing streaks are in the past and shouldn't be expected to be balanced out by future win streaks, and there's definitely truth there, but I've always had a bit of a problem with that. Baseball Seasons aren't endless dice rolls, they're groups of individuals that inevitably go on losing streaks and winning streaks during a season. I know the prevaiing wisdom is that if you project a team to be, say, a .600 team before the season, and then they play start the year with a .400 month, that you should still only expect a .600 record the rest of the way, not an even better record to bring the season total up to .600 - but i've never quite bought that theory. You look back at any .600 teams and there will be long stretches above and below that mark - I've never really had much problem thinking that a good team can make up for longterm underperformance with long stretches of overperformance - in fact i think it's likely.



All that being said, they haven't won the spot yet and still can't afford any kind of losing streak the rest of the way.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#483974) #
The Tigers and Seattle are floundering. I would say the Os losing 5 in a row also qualifies as floundering.
hypobole - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#483975) #
I used to just post stuff sometimes as a joke. People kept thinking I was serious, so I started adding a :). Failed to do so this time and look where it got me.
chris_jays - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#483976) #
Honestly can’t ever tell in this group… glad there was sarcasm on your post because I’m sure Rogers, the capitalistic entity, is thrilled they dodged this bullet… despite how much the majority of this group wanted Robert Jr.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#483977) #
I think it's fair to say the Twins, Tigers, and Mariners have floundered since the deadline.

With the Jays and Royals surging since the deadline. Also all the top teams TBR NYY BOS playing even better since the deadline.

hypobole - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#483978) #
Wasn't just here, the media was also pushing hard for Robert. One reason Shapirokins :) are still here more than 10 years in is that unlike fans and media, for them the term "risk aversion" is more than some vague concept.
uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#483979) #
ach. Arrighetti pretty good at digging his own holes. Bad fielding, non competitive walk after going up 0-2, and then a pitch right in the yeti's wheelhouse.
Cracka - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#483980) #
Today should be the last time Sanchez starts in LF; I know the sun was factor, but it's almost as if he's developed a case of the "yips" (unprecedented for an outfielder) and has lost all confidence in his ability to track and catch balls. He's basically a struggling DH/PH at this point...
TamRa - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#483981) #
"The teams ahead of them haven't floundered tho. They've just kept on being mediocre teams like they were"

Seattle has. The others, apart from Cleveland, have been marginally below .500 (Texas, Minnesota, Detroit 6 under)

At the end of play on July 28, the Jays were 5.5. back of Cleveland with 5 teams between them. Houston was one of them as Texas held the AL west for a moment there.

Since then:

Texas 15-21
Cleveland 17-17
Minnesota 14-20
Houston 19-15
Seattle 12-22
Baltimore 17-18
Detroit 14-20
Toronto 23-12

uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#483982) #
I'd rather Lorenzen get these starts tbh. Arrighetti is lucky it's only 5-0.
Nigel - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#483983) #
Every time I watch Arrighetti only one thing comes to mind - how on earth did he ever earn Pitchrr of the Month honours? The stuff is so modest.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#483984) #
Can Patrick Corbin come back....
Glevin - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#483985) #
Vlad seems to be hitting ball hard recently but on ground so almost all outs.
electric carrot - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#483986) #
"Last 41 Games: 26-15, .634, +30, +.73/gm

Since Deadline: 20-11, .645, +25, +.81/gm

Last 27 Games: 18-9, .667, +28, +1.04/gm"


I don't want to put too fine a point on this but I think the most important inflection point this season is the game Kirk stole a base.

Since Aug. 29th
6-1 .857


greenfrog - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#483987) #
Go Tigers.
hypobole - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#483988) #
This is a fiendish plan devised by the position players and Arrighetti to save wear and tear on the pitching staff by only having to cover 24 outs instead of 27.

Oh yeah :)
TamRa - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#483989) #
Describe disappointment in three words:

Gurrero grounds out
greenfrog - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#483990) #
Hapless Tigers fail to score the ghost runner T10. Now headed to B10 tied 2-2
greenfrog - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#483991) #
Bumped out of WC3 spot by Cleveland
SK in NJ - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#483992) #
Only having 3 starters is a big problem. They've survived somehow, but it's not going to be easy down the stretch.
TamRa - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#483993) #
Detroit better be this pathetic when they come to Toronto
Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#483994) #
I'd rather Lorenzen get these starts tbh.

Might be worth trying. He was getting absolutely killed by Coors Field (gosh!) and the opposition BABiP against him has been insane this season (.365, career .293. I wouldn't necessarily expect him to be good, but he's likely not as bas as that.

Hey, someone's gotta pitch.
Nigel - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#483995) #
RIP Joe Morgan. Still my all time favourite player and the one that got me interested in baseball in the analytical sense. I thought that his importance to The Big Red Machine went beyond the raw numbers (and they were great) and that led me (years later to the early analytics community. At 95 he had a good run so no complaints, but I’m still taking the news a little hard.
TamRa - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#483996) #
There's a path to minimize the thin rotation problem the rest of the way, barring further setbacks:

7th A's - Cease
8 A's - Soriano
9 A's - bullpen*
10 off
11 Balt -Scherzer
12 Balt - Cease
13 Balt - Soriano
14 Det - Arrighetti (or replacement)
15 Det - bullpen
16 Det - Scherzer**
17 off
18 Tex - Cease
19 Tex - Soriano
20 Tex - Yesavage***
21 Balt - Scherzer
22 Balt - Arrighetti (or replacement) or bullpen
23 Balt - Cease
24 off
25 Cinn - Soriano
26 Cinn - Yesavage
27 Cinn - Scherzer****

* the Jays have an excellent record in bullpen games
**that series may be taxing on the 'pen
***according to the announced schedule, barring setbacks
****if the last game matters.

Out of 18 games, that's 4 games that fall to Arrighetti, or whoever replaces him, or the bullpen. IF Trey comes back as planned. And three of those fall against teams that should be easier to beat.
pooks137 - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#483997) #
RIP Joe Morgan. Still my all time favourite player and the one that got me interested in baseball in the analytical sense. I thought that his importance to The Big Red Machine went beyond the raw numbers (and they were great) and that led me (years later to the early analytics community. At 95 he had a good run so no complaints, but I’m still taking the news a little hard.

Seems to be a case of mistaken identity, Nigel.

The Joe Morgan whom passed away recently at 95 was a former MLB player but not with Cincinnati. He was apparently mostly known for coaching the Red Sox.

The more famous Joe Morgan, HOF 2B for the Reds & somewhat divisive broadcaster, passed away previously in 2020 at the age of 77.

I had to look it up myself, because 95 today seemed too old for the better known Morgan to have played for the Reds in the 70s.

Magpie - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#483998) #
This Joe Morgan took over the Red Sox at the All-Star Break in 1988- they were in fourth place, 9 games back of Detroit. They instantly ran off a 12 game wining streak and won the division.
TamRa - Sunday, September 06 2026 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#483999) #
Looking at the schedule ahead, if one assumes that the Jays take care of their business versus Baltimore, then the stretch run is all about Cleveland.

If you just do a "win probability" in your head for each series...there's vanishingly little daylight between the two of them. We need Baltimore and Boston to play well against them and for KC to stay hot enough to win the series.

(not that you can really predict baseball but, ya know)
Nigel - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#484003) #
My apologies to all especially “my Joe Morgan”. That is an embarrassing senior’s moment.
92-93 - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#484004) #
It would hardly be a surprise if the Orioles swept the Guardians. It's arguably Baltimore's three best SPs against Cleveland's three worst and it's in Camden Yards. Cleveland really only has one "easy" series left - the 3 at home vs. the Athletics.

It's fun to scoreboard watch but I continue to maintain that if the Jays just play well, they will make the playoffs.

Apropos of nothing, Valenzuela is hitting .155/.246/.259 since the All-Star break, and basically the same since Kirk's return from injury.
hypobole - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#484006) #
Brett Bateman up to 1.3 fWAR/1.4 bWAR. He's batting .347 thanks partly to a .448 BABIP.

Of the 431 players with 110+ PA's, he's 1 of only 3 with a BABIP over .400.

These 3 players are also the leaders in another category. Any guesses?


hypobole - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#484008) #
Brandon Valenzuela has been the best defensive catcher in the league per statcast.
92-93 - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#484009) #
And he's been even better defensively as a backup - Valenzuela has a 7 Fielding Run Value to Kirk's 8 since Alejandro's return in less than half the innings. The Jays' catching is incredible.
scottt - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#484010) #
Being a back up off the bench is not easy.
A regular hitter can afford to be patient and not swing at bad pitches.
A part-timer must be more aggressive and not waste any good pitch to hit.

Hitting is very secondary for a back up catcher.

Mathematically, Baltimore has a 55/45 advantage in those games.
That puts the odds of a sweep under 10%.
No wonder sports betting is making so much money.
Nigel - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#484011) #
I’ll bite on the question hypobole - LD%?
hypobole - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#484012) #
Right idea Nigel, but no. The 3 are Brett, Samad, and Lockridge. Samad does have the highest LD% of the 431 players at 35%. But Brett is only slightly above average at 20.3% and Lockridge the 10th lowest at 12.7%.

The commonalities among the 3 are plus to plus-plus speed and minimal power (1 HR total).

The answer: the only 3 players with a BABIP above .400 are also the only 3 players with a FB% under 20%.
Nigel - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#484014) #
Cool. Thanks hypobole.

Bateman - human or ai robot designed by the underground cult of Whitey Herzog devotees?
Gerry - Monday, September 07 2026 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#484015) #
I would have thought that Chandler Simpson would have been one of the three.
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