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Well, things going nuts in the one thread so we need a clean one, especially for big news like this.

Teoscar Hernandez has been traded to Seattle for setup man Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko.

Swanson is a RHP who had a 222 ERA+ last year, 11.7 K/9 vs 1.7 BB/9 but career is 9.7 K vs 2.0 BB 99 ERA+ (was used as a swingman before) - not a free agent until after the 2025 season.
Macko I suspect was key to this deal too - 21 years old last year in A+, should be in AA at some point in 2023 - a LH starting pitcher with 14.1 K/9 vs 4.7 BB/9 last year but just 38 IP over 8 starts. He needs to be stretched out big time obviously but dang, an arm like that will always make teams drool. He is from Slovakia but went to high school in Alberta. He threw 13 1/3 IP in the fall league but was hit hard (6.08 ERA, just over a K per inning) but that was just to get him innings I suspect.

I suspect this was a deal done for a few reasons, cash not the least of it, but control too (Teoscar is a free agent after 2023 and is getting over $10 mil in arbitration). I suspect this is domino #1 to fall, with more coming soon. A LH CF perhaps?
Teoscar Traded | 74 comments | Create New Account
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John Northey - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 12:40 PM EST (#424261) #
So the new pen: Romano-Swanson-Garcia-Bass-Mayza-Cimber with 2 slots for Richards, Pop, White and/or Kikuchi to fight over.
Glevin - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 12:41 PM EST (#424263) #
Teoscar's trade value was never going to be super high (Very good power hitter, 1 year/roughly $15M left on deal) so I think return is decent especially with how expensive reliever market was looking in free agency. Loved having him on the Jays but he also exemplified a lot of what was best and worst of the Jays in the last few years. Tons of power and passion but lots of Ks, didn't get on base well, prone to slumps and dumb plays.
Glevin - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 12:44 PM EST (#424265) #
"So the new pen: Romano-Swanson-Garcia-Bass-Mayza-Cimber with 2 slots for Richards, Pop, White and/or Kikuchi to fight over."

Think Pearson will be a candidate as well if he stays healthy in Spring.
Nigel - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 12:55 PM EST (#424267) #
I know others feel differently but that's a very good looking pen for the regular season but its short of ideal for a playof ream. If I were building a team for the playoffs it would have another high leverage LH reliever in it. I appreciate that's likely a luxury the Jays, operating as an upper mid market team, won't be able to afford.
Cracka - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 01:12 PM EST (#424270) #
The Astros just won 13 playoff games and the world series without using an LH reliever. This has made me rethink whether teams NEED lefties. The 3-batter rule made southpaws relievers with big splits much less valuable and now you can't really carry an LH who can't get RH hitters out. I still would be happy to see another high-leverage guy added, but times have definitely changed.
uglyone - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 01:48 PM EST (#424271) #
I'll repeat what I said in the other thread - this is a trade where we lose quality for "value". Even if Swanson repeats his career year, we still come off second best in on field quality. So the argument is that we really need the extra payroll flexibility, and there's a lot of value in that. except Atkins disagrees:

By trading Teoscar Hernandez, who’s projected to earn $14.1 million by @mlbtraderumors, #BlueJays do free up payroll flexibility. That said, “we didn’t need it,” GM Ross Atkins said.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) November 16, 2022
uglyone - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 01:56 PM EST (#424272) #

Atkins says Blue Jays feel they can replace Hernandez's production from within and they will pursue other external opportunities, as well

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) November 16, 2022
sure you do, Ross, sure you do.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 02:05 PM EST (#424273) #
That's a silly comment.  Obviously the club does not have anyone in the minors who can hit the way Hernandez does.  They want Springer in right-field, and they'll have to acquire a centerfielder. 
85bluejay - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 02:10 PM EST (#424274) #
I don't put much stock on what the FO say but rather what they do and we will see how the offseason plays out - If Atkins had said the Jays needed to move Hernandez's salary then he'd be subjected to all kinds of questions from media/fans about payroll and whom the Jays could afford etc. - most FO say they don't need to move payroll even if that isn't so and few teams admit they have financial constraints - almost always say "the money will be there if we need it.

scottt - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 02:13 PM EST (#424275) #
Swanson has a limited track record but that's always the case with controllable relievers.
He throws hard and strikes hitters out. That's something the Jays needed.

Teoscar is a QO target, so by trading him they lose a second round pick.
They get some of that back with Macko (7th round pick, but the Mariners' 8th prospect by Pipeline and Fangraphs) who has nice stuff but has some history of injuries.
Macko will have to be on the 40 roster next year.

A healthy Springer in right field opens the center to Merrifield.
CF isn't really the right place to look for a left bat.
They need a top 3 hitter who swings left, not a guy to replace Tapia.

scottt - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 02:20 PM EST (#424276) #
They can replace Hernandez's 2022 production from within.
At the very least they'll need to go hunting for a big left bat at the trade deadline, if not before.

They need to have Kirk's bat in the top 5 more than ever now.
Just need to find a decent left bat to platoon at DH.

Nigel - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 02:32 PM EST (#424278) #
Both of those are silly comments and not true. I long ago stopped listening to Atkins and just followed what he does.
Glevin - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 02:57 PM EST (#424279) #
"Both of those are silly comments and not true. I long ago stopped listening to Atkins and just followed what he does."

I mean, I think in this case, the thinking of the trade is pretty obvious anyway.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 02:58 PM EST (#424280) #
I think it's safe to say that the Jays are not going to go with the current internal options in the outfield, so Atkins saying that is meaningless. As far as payroll, as others have said, it's about action. Maybe there is a payroll crunch, or maybe they'd rather spread the $14M projected towards Hernandez out in a different way. The subsequent moves will tell the story.

Trading a catcher for a LH CF and then signing a LH OF/DH like Brantley or Conforto is probably doable within the budget.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 03:10 PM EST (#424282) #
I now fear that this team plans to keep Kirk in the line up starting day which means Moreno is likely on his way out for that top 5 in the order lefty bat.

If Hernandez, an elite power hitter can't get you Jared Kelenic then that's a very good sign for the Jays if they dangle Moreno or Kirk.
Nigel - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 03:40 PM EST (#424283) #
Glevin - I agree, which sort of makes Atkins' comments worse not better.

Do we know that Hernandez couldn't have been traded for Kelenic? I'm not sure that the Jays would be interested in that deal anyway. Of course Kelenic was a highly rated prospect but the M's themselves, through this deal, seem to have acknowledged that Kelenic may not be an answer to any of their OF problems. Having watched a fair bit of Kelenic over the past couple of years here on the West Coast there is ton of athleticism and a good sense of the strike zone, but Travis Snider sized holes in his swing.
Cracka - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 03:53 PM EST (#424284) #
The big problem that I see with Kelenic is that he only has one option remaining and can't hit major-league pitching yet. He had two good weeks (one in April, one in Sept.), but otherwise was like Bradley Zimmer at the plate. He's only 23, he's a good outfielder, and he's left-handed - he'll get plenty of chances, but I don't think we're the right team for him right now.
christaylor - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 03:58 PM EST (#424285) #
Trading Teo seems like a case of making a move early rather than (possibly) waiting on the deadline, getting nothing, or letting him walk as a FA. Teo was fun to watch and could come up big, but he'll be a risky FA for someone. The reliever market is bonkers right now, and Macko could make this look like a brilliant trade in just a couple of years.

Nimmo seems like a lousy deal waiting to happen, with the 5-year term being reported. His injury history is concerning already at 30, especially the hip and hamstrings.

I hope they can move Kirk, but the GMs all see what we saw. A player who can not be your everyday C, or he'll wear down -- how many teams want to carry 3 C to get his bat at DH? Moving Moreno could sting long-term, but he's the piece that nets a CF or a CF+ a valuable pitcher.

uglyone - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 04:11 PM EST (#424286) #
I'm sure it was mentioned elsewhere but I just wanted to get on record that it's pretty funny that the Jays had to DFA Tapia after just giving him 430pa for a team they thought was a contender.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 04:46 PM EST (#424287) #
Ugly, there's nothing funny about that. It does not look bad on the team. They tried to build a contender. They had injuries to Springer and Gurriel and their 4th OF option received 2/3rds a season's worth of playing time. He was their worst hitter. They DFA'd him and somehow that makes for a prime example that they were not serious contenders because they employed him as a 4th OF pressed into 3 OF duties? That proves that they weren't contending.

This is the forum for the Toronto Blue Jays. The real life professional baseball team with real life owners, real life managers and real life supply and demand. Just want to make sure you're not confusing it with some fantasy or video game forum.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 04:51 PM EST (#424288) #
Just checking our 40 man roster.

Young players/prospects: Danner, Zulueta, Moreno, Barger, Capra, Horowitz, Jimenez, Orelvis, O Lopez.

Not young but finally getting a chance: Matt Gage, Lukes

Not young but not good at the ML level so far: Hatch, Kay, Merryweather, Thornton.

A mystery to me: Pearson, M White.

That is 17 players with only Moreno that I have faith in. I also had a lot of faith in T Snider.

Speaking of faith, young players very often fail. For example Travis Snider, A Alford and so far J Kelenic. So Barger, Orelvis could all disappoint me.
Magpie - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 04:51 PM EST (#424289) #
the Jays had to DFA Tapia

Should probably read "were able" to DFA Tapia. His great virtue, as everyone foresaw when the deal was made, was that he was not-Randal-Grichuk.
scottt - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 05:00 PM EST (#424290) #
Tapia was a 4th outfielder. Teams don't like to pay guys to sit on the bench.
Is it funny that Teoscar, Springer and Gurriel all miss considerable time?

Teoscar produced 2.8 WAR this year, down from 3.9 the year before.
He's 29 and should still be productive for several years, but he's likely looking for a long contract extension.

A healthy Springer who mostly plays in right field was producing 5+ WAR for Houston.
Merrifield can handle CF and had a 118 OPS+ with the Jays last year.
Gurriel produced 2.8 and 2.2 WAR the last 2 years.
Right now the 4th and 5th outfielders are Lukes and Horwitz.
LF/DH is the obvious position to improve.

Merriweather is out of option. So is White and there is also Kikuchi.
The rotation is the big question mark now. 

Ducey - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 05:06 PM EST (#424291) #
For what its worth, The MLB top 30 prospect list for the Jays puts Macko at #8

He's ahead of #9 Gabe Martinez who will be left exposed in the Rule 5 draft.
#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 05:09 PM EST (#424292) #
I saw Adam Macko pitch twice in Vancouver back in May. I had this note on him when he threw five shutout innings against the C's in which he struck out seven.

''The Slovakian-born lefty—raised in Ireland and Alberta—bamboozled Addison Barger with curveballs at 65 and 67 miles per hour before dialing it up to 94. Macko was up to 95 at one point.''

I was very impressed that I had to use the word bamboozle, a word that should only be used for the proper occasion.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 05:12 PM EST (#424293) #
This will be an interesting winter for the Jays. Teoscar was a favorite of mine mostly due to seeing him early on playing for the Jays in Minnesota - was there with my daughter & her best friend who both were in a gymnastics competition. It was a lot of fun and I've been cheering him on ever since as has she. Luckily she is now addicted enough that she'll still follow the team regardless (she still misses Tulo).

In my mind the Jays now have one of their big needs partially covered, another big arm in the pen would be nice though. I expect a trade for a CF or powerful LH RF soon though - probably involving one of the catchers and/or one of the second-basemen and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Pearson mixed in as a 'final piece' or to help get a prospect back who has options and is 2 or 3 years away (ideally not on a 40 man roster too).

Now, Nimmo is very interesting - 274/367/433 last year as a leadoff hitter, 269/385/441 lifetime (so hardly a career year). Only a CF last year, but has time in LF and RF over the years too. Entering his age 30 season but has injury issues (last year his only one over 140 games, only 1 other over 100 games (140 on the nose in 2018) so I'd be a bit nervous after the Springer experience. Mix in his being a leadoff hitter and you have potential conflict with Springer who likes being leadoff. At the very least the Jays should talk with Springer before doing anything as a sign of respect towards him.

My preference is a trade instead - ideally with Arizona of for (in order) Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Daulton Varsho. Free agency has many tempting targets of course - from Nimmo (very expensive) to David Peralta (109 OPS+ last year, 111 lifetime, entering age 35 season so probably cheaper than many other options). Plus many others like Andrew Benintendi (120 OPS+, 109 lifetime, entering age 28 season), and Michael Brantley (125 OPS+, 117 lifetime, entering age 36 season, only played 64 games last year). Then there is the Japanese option - Masataka Yoshida entering his age 29 season after hitting 336/449/559 last year but is a left fielder, but bats left - overall I doubt he is a strong target.

I suspect the Jays will sign one of Brantly or Peralta as a backup (the Tapia role) while chasing Nimmo or a big trade for the main role (ideally a CF or a RF with big power - no not Judge unless Rogers has more money available than any of us know).
John Northey - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 05:23 PM EST (#424295) #
Hmm... just checked CF in the majors in 2022 - among guys who played there often enough to count for FanGraphs only Judge & Trout had 30+ home runs. While 500 slugging percentages only to those 2 and Michael Harris II (Atlanta) and Julio Rodriguez (Seattle) (both are 21)- none of those 4 will be Jays in 2023. FYI: next is Springer, then Bryan Reynolds (available but expensive with poor defensive marks last year).

For OF'ers with 30+ HR you get Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez, Mookie Betts, Anthony Santander, Giancarlo Stanton, and Kyle Tucker - none of whom I see as being available. 500 Slg% is the same plus Joc Pederson who took his QO from SF.

Hrm, hard to find real power that is available in the OF isn't it? That makes Nimmo a lot more tempting as he is good at getting on base, vital for scoring runs of course. It also makes any younger players that teams are willing to deal a lot more tempting too. Atkins has his work cut out for him this winter imo.
Magpie - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 05:26 PM EST (#424296) #
More to come, presumably (hopefully!), but the initial takeaway for me is that Atkins has decided not to run it back, and put his trust in "internal improvements" or "bounce-back years." Winning 90 games and getting into the post-season isn't good enough anymore, and changes will be required to get where they want to go. There's obviously an element of risk involved, but I approve of the ambition.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 05:28 PM EST (#424297) #
I agree with UO about Tapia. He was not that bad for the 4th OF. 430 PAs. Almost everyone is saying that his 2023 salary was going to be too high as the main reason for the DFA. He covered the injury time for Springer, Teo and Gurriel well enough. The Jays need to replace him/4th OF. Maybe Merrifield is the guy. Sorry but I don't feel Otto and Lukes are the answer for 4th OF. But I have been wrong before. I will admit that I like Chavez Young.

As far as the Jays being a contender OR thought they were, IMO many thought Baltimore was a contender. In the NL Milwaukee definitely was a contender IMO. So did SF think they were a contender (see last year) but they had a bad year and are going to try again for 2023. SD????? Seem good on paper BUT... They kind of squeaked in.

Gerry - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 05:37 PM EST (#424298) #
Tapia was a 0.3 WAR player in 2002 with BRef and Fangraphs agreeing on the 0.3.

Fangraphs says that WAR has a value of $2M. He was paid $4M for a net negative value of $2M.

In 2023 he was expected to make $5M. At age 29, would he deliver more WAR to turn that negative into a positive? He delivered one WAR in Colorado in 2021 so if he was to replicate that in 2023 he would be around break even. But that's a big "if".

Will another team give him $5M? I don't think so.
jerjapan - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 06:09 PM EST (#424299) #
The tapia deal saved us money, improved lineup balance, and brought us a prospect.

Cost? Nothing.

Why are we still talking about tapia?
John Northey - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 06:34 PM EST (#424300) #
Tapia - 1 year later, Grichuk had 0.3 bWAR and is owed $10.3 mil next year ($4.3 mil paid by Jays - net savings of $6 mil), got prospect Adrian Pinto (age 20 in 2023, hit 242/375/363 in A ball last year at SS/2B/CF 18-7 SB-CS). Tapia gave the Jays 0.3 WAR in 2022, so equal to Grichuk, but from the left side in a RH heavy lineup. So I'd say the Jays win overall with the prospect and $6 mil saved since Tapia was released.

Now, for 2023 what can that get, mixed with the $12 mil saved by trading Teoscar? $18 mil is almost a QO. Should get something half decent. Masataka Yoshida is listed as a potential target, as is Nimmo via MLB Trade Rumors - far less power, far better OBP ability, no idea on defense. Of course, he has hit 20+ HR a year in Japan, but those parks are a lot easier to hit them out of than in the majors.

So much to think about. It'll be interesting when the next shoe drops. Will they go nuts and sign Nimmo (provide a ton of baserunners for Bo & Vlad with Springer/Nimmo as 1/2 in the lineup) or make a big trade involving one of our catchers to get someone out of Arizona to cover CF or sign minor OF'ers to mix/match to cover Teoscar's slot? So many options still. A week or two from now many of those will start vanishing so it is time to strike. I'm glad the Jays are getting started.
Magpie - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 06:50 PM EST (#424301) #
Why are we still talking about tapia?

Because he was weird, and irritating, and polarizing, and once in a while, utterly delightful. I will remember his inside the park slam the same way I remember Coghlan's Leap. (The best part was the way he hung his head in utter despair after hitting a routine fly ball to centre with the bases loaded and two out.)
Nigel - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 07:00 PM EST (#424302) #
Why are we still talking about Tapia? Because, from the date of the trade, cutting him was always the way for the Jays to win that trade (by saving his '23 salary). How many players can you say that about? Then he went out and got 400+ ABs to help prove that point.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 07:17 PM EST (#424303) #
We’re talking about Tapia because one poster who likes to bully and nitpick Atkins tried to use Tapia as an example as to why the 2022 Blue Jays were not a true contending team. That’s why.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 07:32 PM EST (#424304) #
Don't forget me when I'm gone. (Sans scorn)
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 07:33 PM EST (#424305) #
I think this is a fair trade for a good but not quite elite corner OF with iffy defence, one year till FA at a ~$14M price tag. That has some value but wasn't going to bring a haul in return.

We'll have to see what they do now. Use the savings to sign Nimmo? Trade for another LHH OF and use the savings on pitching? Many dominoes yet to fall...
Magpie - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 08:11 PM EST (#424306) #
And at least he was better than Aaron Hicks...
Lylemcr - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 08:26 PM EST (#424307) #
I can't imagine the mariners giving up on Kelenic yet. This guy was supposed to be Jrod good. He is just in his head. (Too revved up). You can't sell low on this guy.

The question I am wondering... Is this good or bad for the clubhouse? I think Teo and Vlady were tight. That being said, something in the clubhouse just seemed off to me. Sometimes, there were not engaged in the game as much as I would like. The Jays seem to have a lot of mental errors.

This comes from the show Shoresy. "It's not that they don't love to win.. it's that they don't hate to lose. "

(Sorry for the language.)

I agree with that. I think that is the edge that Semien brought to the game. He had the anger in his belly. It made him want to constantly improve.

I sure hope the Jays are at hope mad as hell that they lost to the Mariners (in dramatically embarrassing fashion). Maybe, they will come to camp with a little more fire in the belly to take it to the next level.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 08:27 PM EST (#424308) #
Um!! Nobody here understands baseball!! Example Ray tries to rebuild his value. Result Cy Young!! What happens the next year and the next 3 years??

Ray was a fluke?? How much was Stripling paid in 2022?? What did he do??

How about disappointments?? Syndergaard?? He cost big $$ plus a pick. Ryu?? Price??
Lylemcr - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 09:00 PM EST (#424309) #
You learn more from losing than winning and the good players turn what they learn into something they can use.

This is why when the Jays are losing, it drives me nuts when they are messing around in the dugout. Pay attention. Learn.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 09:01 PM EST (#424310) #
As an FYI: Manoah came in 3rd for Cy Young in the end with Verlander winning it unanimously. Not a shock, but I was hoping for 2nd place for Manoah. Full voting is here. 7 second place vote, 9 for Ohtani who came in 4th and 14 for Casse who came in 2nd. Gausman got the pity vote (1 5th place vote).
BlueMonday - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 09:10 PM EST (#424311) #
Why are we still talking about Tapia?
Sorry for another post on this, but ... Cuz we can look at stats! From Fangraphs, I looked at all the playoff teams to see about their Low War and High Plate Appearance players. I’ve arbitrarily listed the players with War less than 1 and more than 300 PA's:

Nobody: LAD, NYY (FYI Aaron Hicks 453 1.5), Philadelphia

Atlanta Adam Duvall 415 0.9
Cleveland Owen Miller 472 0.6
Houston Maldonado 379. 0.5
Seattle Jesse Winkler 547 0.4 (phew - dodged a bullet there...)
St. Louis Nolan Gorman 313 0.5
Toronto Raimel Tapia 433 0.3

NYM: Ramon Laureano 393 0.9, Nick Allen 325 0.5

San Diego: Luke Voit 344 0.4, Eric Hosmer 369 0.4, Austin Nola 397 0.2

Conclusions: Toronto is not an outlier in the playoff teams. The highest budget teams can spend their way to avoid this.
Magpie - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 09:17 PM EST (#424312) #
Italics begone?
Magpie - Wednesday, November 16 2022 @ 09:18 PM EST (#424313) #
Begone, I say.
John Northey - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 02:10 AM EST (#424314) #
So what is the better use of that $18 mil plus whatever else the Jays have? Blowing it on a top end starting pitcher or on a top flight OF? $50 mil probably gets you Judge, $40 gets you Verlander, $30+ for Correa, $20-$25 Nimmo. Kodai Senga, a top Japanese pitcher, is expected to cost $75 mil for 5 years. So many options at so many price points. Of course, there is also trades where the majority of the cost is the prospects sent. Part of me wants the big splash of a Verlander, but the saner side says 'go for Nimmo and Senga'.
bpoz - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 07:37 AM EST (#424315) #
There may not be any or just a few bats as big as Teo available. We scored the 2nd most runs in the AL and our RA was 7th best for a differential of +96. I don't know how good/bad our 1 run games and low RS games were.

So being V good at RS and just OK at RA we needed to improve RA. Earlier Atkins spoke about improving the rotation and the pen. He did not speak about improving the RS. And of course he wisely did not suggest making the offense weaker.

I don't think he has mentioned LHH or improving D. Or getting younger. I always approve when he speaks and says nothing. It allows us and the media to come up with our own ideas.
Cynicalguy - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 07:38 AM EST (#424316) #
Can't wait to see a late 2023/2023 playoff bullpen of:

Romano-Swanson-Garcia-Bass-Mayza-Cimber-Pearson-Tidemann :p
Jonny German - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 07:52 AM EST (#424317) #
Hurts to see Teoscar go, but it makes sense assuming it's part of a bigger Re-tool the Roster project. I joined the "Springer needs to move to right field" club this season, and this move makes it clear that management is now on board.

The possiblities now are exciting. It's conceivable that the team adds 3 lefty bats and a good starting pitcher while subtracting only a catcher and keeping payroll in the $205M range.

Nootbar-Bellinger-Brantley-Senga? It's possible!

Conforto-Thomas-Yoshida-Heaney? Why not!
dalimon5 - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 07:55 AM EST (#424318) #
I still don’t think our bullpen is that great.
Glevin - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 08:27 AM EST (#424319) #
I don't think Springer will move to RF, I just think that Jays want him to play less CF so maybe half CF, half RF with some DH mixed in. They don't need a fulltime CF, just someone who can play there and be fine.
bpoz - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 08:37 AM EST (#424320) #
A few years ago most of us concluded that our FO valued offense above defense. So we had the defensive OF specialist like Jonathan Davis and Zimmer. I expect 1 spot on the active roster to be used by this type of player and have 1-3 more in AAA/AA. I saw Chavez Young as the backup to Zimmer last year. I don't know who is the current guy. Could be a NRI.
electric carrot - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 09:29 AM EST (#424322) #
I will miss Teoscar. He was a fun guy to watch play. I am on board though with getting more pitching and so I get it. I was hoping though that we'd get a starter who could pitch next year.
SK in NJ - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 09:49 AM EST (#424323) #
I can definitely see the Jays adding two lefty bats, one capable of playing CF and the other more of a DH/OF hybrid. To piggyback off Jonny's post, a combination of Nootbaar (in a trade for one of the catchers) plus one of Conforto/Brantley via free agency would balance out the lineup well and would be close to salary neutral with Hernandez being traded. Which would leave a significant amount of payroll room for a SP. Will be interesting to see what the team does.
dalimon5 - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 11:01 AM EST (#424324) #
So basically what SK in NJ just said is what I think the Blue Jays are trying to do (and should do). I think it will cost Kirk or Moreno.

So essentially if they do this then they would be achieving the following:

Lose power hitting RHH on final year
Gain power bullpen arm with control

Lose long term C piece
Gain LHH long term piece

Spend money on SP

dalimon5 - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 11:16 AM EST (#424325) #
I’d be happy with Brantley as our main LHH pick up, Clevinger or Rodon as a SP pick up and Kiermaier as a 4th OF.

Glevin - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 11:38 AM EST (#424326) #
"I’d be happy with Brantley as our main LHH pick up, Clevinger or Rodon as a SP pick up and Kiermaier as a 4th OF."

Who plays RF then? Brantley is a DH-only with maybe a handful of games in LF. Kiermaier is a CFer but shouldn't be starting. Jays need an everyday RF/CF type.

I also don't see Rodon because I think the Jays have an excellent 1/2 in the rotation and have 3 starters locked up for 4 more years so spending big on another starter seems less useful than signing a position player to longer-term deal. Jays only have Springer as an OFer under contract after this year and nobody in the minors who seems very close.
John Northey - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 12:15 PM EST (#424327) #
The best RF/CF type who is out there is sadly a RH hitter or he'd be nice to get :)

What do the Jays want? LH obviously, can play CF and RF. Ideally high OBP or high Slg. So lets see who is the best with 300+ PA who played a lot in CF...
  • Judge: #1 in OBP and #1 in Slg (shocking I know)
  • Nimmo: #3 in OBP (Trout #2), #11 in Slg%
  • Byron Buxton: #3 in Slg (Trout #2) but signed long term with Minny so not available, similar for Michael Harris, Julio Rodriguez who are also high on the Slg list.
  • Bryan Reynolds: #7 on Slg just behind Springer and 6th with a 345 OBP just ahead of Springer. Hasn't played RF since 2019, but is mainly a CF so it could work well with Springer, free agent after 2025 so fits quite well. But Pittsburgh probably wants a fortune for him given they don't have much else (team OPS+ of 84, ERA+ of 90).
  • At this point we get to the Arizona crew - Daulton Varsho (235/302/443), Alek Thomas (231/275/344 but just his first ML season, 313/389/499 in minors lifetime), Corbin Carroll (260/330/500 in 32 games, 310/426/588 lifetime in minors) - any of those 3 could work, all play CF, all are LH hitters, all have some time RF either this year or last (20+ games) - Varsho the most in RF, Thomas the best CF defensively.
Basically the way I see it is either a trade with Pittsburgh for Reynolds, signing Nimmo, or trading for one of the 3 LH CF'ers the Diamondbacks have (would almost certainly cost Kirk or Moreno for Carroll or Thomas, Varsho is probably a lot cheaper and can catch as a bonus). Of course, the dream is Judge but I don't see it, Nimmo fits well but what will he cost (MLB Trade Rumors thinks $20-$25 per year for 5 years)? The trade price for Reynolds or any of the Arizona crew is supposed to be high, will the Jays be willing to meet it? I don't see any other practical options for a contending team like the Jays are otherwise. Lars Nootbaar is a RF who can play CF (10-20 max a year I'd figure given his history - only 3 games in minors in CF, more time in LF than CF in college) plus I don't see St Louis trading him for short of a kings ransom given his age and just over 1 year service time.
85bluejay - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 12:55 PM EST (#424328) #
Pablo Lopez (Marlins) - #4 starter ( can they throw-in Sixto Sanchez as a lottery ticket - hasn't pitched since 2020)

Alek Thomas/(Dream Corbin Carroll) - trade from Arizona using Kirk as the centerpiece of trade)

Andrew Benintendi - reasonable cost FA leftfielder ( moving on from Lourdes) - too much concern about Brantley injury recovery timeline & 36 next May)

If Texas Rangers are moving on from infielder Josh H. Smith and cost is reasonable - buy low candidate.

jerjapan - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 01:01 PM EST (#424329) #
With Hernandez out of the lineup, gotta wonder if Moreno is more likely to be traded thank Kirk?
92-93 - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 01:03 PM EST (#424330) #
A hungry Conforto on a pillow contract might be ideal.
85bluejay - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 01:18 PM EST (#424331) #
A healthy Conforto is better than Benintendi but you'd probably have to give him a player option 2nd year as protection and I'm leery about that.
Glevin - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 02:15 PM EST (#424332) #
Benintendi doesn't interest me very much. If he were a CFer, fine, but a LF who has no power...meh. I mean, he's OK because he walks but has very low upside (even when he's good, he's just OK) but hasn't played CF since 2019 and can't play RF either so don't see a fit.

I would be absolutely shocked if the DBacks traded Carroll but Varsho and Thomas would probably be available and might be good fits.
dalimon5 - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 02:48 PM EST (#424333) #
The last 10 posts are all perfect. All good players to target and trade for and also all good criticisms. Brantley is getting older and also isn't a RF. What I like about him is it means a short term contract and lower annual pay.

Rodon I like because the projections are not for many years.

Kiermaier I like as a 4th because he brings lots of speed, baserunning and defense. Having him and Merrifield would be great off the bench.

The best scenario is to get a top pitcher, good bench pick up and to trade Kirk or Moreno for one of those Arizona players or someone like Chisholm out of Miami if he's ever available.

how come nobody includes Jake Mccarthy among the ARZ targets? Dude was the best of the bunch this season.
hypobole - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 02:52 PM EST (#424334) #
How good a CF is Bryan Reynolds? Not impressed by what I've read and seen.
Lylemcr - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 03:36 PM EST (#424335) #
I agree. The bullpen is still not great. Swanson was a moveable piece for the Mariners. They weren't using him in high leverage situations. He does have good strikeout rates and there were times I wished the Jays had someone better.

If I was a Mariners fan, I would be a little disappointed. Teo is good, but Houston still beats the Mariners next year in the playoffs. Teo just replaces Haniger. They need that true #3/4 hitter. The good news is that they have a great pitching staff so they don't need a lot of offense. They also have lots of money left, prospects\extra pitching to trade and some open spots in the lineup. Maybe it is time to become a mariners fan! :)
dalimon5 - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 04:03 PM EST (#424336) #
They're biggest strength right now is young OF to trade from.
SK in NJ - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 04:22 PM EST (#424337) #
Alek Thomas would be a great fit. My only concern would be that acquiring him would likely cost Kirk, and if you subtract Kirk and Hernandez from the 2023 lineup while sliding in Thomas who (despite tremendous upside) put up a 71 wRC+ last season, it is pretty risky in terms of maximizing 2023 wins. They would have to be bullish on Thomas' bat coming around right away as well as Moreno developing quickly, and they would also need to add at least one middle of the order bat via free agency in that scenario.
jerjapan - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 06:45 PM EST (#424338) #
Moreno for Thomas and a starting prospect
Glevin - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 06:54 PM EST (#424339) #
Think Varsho is maybe a better fit because he's a better player right now. He's an elite defender with some pop. Don't think the Jays can trade for a guy with potential right now as a main piece in a big deal.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 07:51 PM EST (#424340) #
Arizona just traded a catcher for an outfielder.

It just makes too much sense to connect with them now. They have excess outfielders and not much catching.
scottt - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 08:39 PM EST (#424341) #
With Hernandez out of the lineup, it seems Kirk has to be the main catcher so they can replace Teoscar's bat via the DH. Moreno has to learn as the backup. He doesn't need to DH and can run for Kirk in the late innings.

Kirk is a fantastic bat for a catcher but nothing special as a DH.
Jansen has just 2 years of control left.

John Northey - Thursday, November 17 2022 @ 11:57 PM EST (#424342) #
Just looked at the guys in that Arizona trade - a nothing for nothing deal it looks like on the surface. Lewis a 54 OPS+ last year, 112 career but just 130 games in his career. Hit well in AAA last year though (over 900 OPS) so who knows? Cooper Hummel who Arizona lost was used as a PH more than catching - a 66 OPS+ will do that. But again, solid in the minors with a 900 OPS in 2021 and 2022. Two guys who are 'who knows'. Doubt it budges the bar one bit on a potential Jays/Diamondbacks deal, but it was their 10th trade this year, after 10 the previous year. The Jays, for comparison had 13 in 2021 (offseason 2020/21 to end of 2021/22 off season) and 12 from Nov 2021 to now. Both teams GMs like to make trades (for extreme the other way 1987 Nov to 1989 March 1 trade for the Jays thus why he was nicknamed 'stand Pat' Gillick for awhile). Of course, a GM can be quiet and do big deals - 2012 Nov to March 2014 only 5 trades by the Jays but what trades - from one that was minor (Yan Gomes for Esmil Rogers) but hurt later (Gomes becoming a really good player), to 7 guys to Miami for Buehrle, Reyes, Johnson, and 2 others, to d'Arnaud & Thor for Dickey and 2 knuckleball catchers - it was quite substantial. The other 2 deals were 'meh' then, 'meh' now.

FYI: I included Jake McCarthy on my list of Arizona targets - RF his primary position in 2022 but was CF as #1 in 2021. Mix in LH hitting and under team control through 2028 and he would be sweet to get with that 118 OPS+. In truth I'd take any of (in this order) Carroll, Thomas, McCarthy, or Varsho as each has advantages and all are LH hitting players who can play CF and RF (some stronger in LF than RF it seems). All depends on cost. Gotta figure Arizona wants to deal one of them for catching help. I'd send Moreno or Kirk & Pearson (give them a project for the rotation) for Carroll, the other 3 I'd need more from them to send Moreno or Kirk there. Fun times.
bpoz - Friday, November 18 2022 @ 08:24 AM EST (#424343) #
Kyle Lewis was traded so that Seattle could save a 40 man spot. It seems that he was a strong non tender candidate. IMO contenders have to do that.

Arizona got damaged goods that is going to receive Arb. I believe that Lewis has options. If so then they can wait and see if he can recover his health and regain his past performance. So a very good gamble for the cost of a backup C.
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