Not sure if I just missed it but Jays signed former Marlin Elieser Hernandez, who had been pitching in the KBO... another Lauer-like reclamation?

Clearly sad to leave Canada and go back to the US:) (ducks)

Okay thanks for that. It seems you're including home games in there as well, no? 
That record on Sundays doesn't surprise me. That's also been a weird one. It could just be randomness.
Another thing that feels like it's happened a few times this year, though I'm way too lazy to check, is that road trips have started out well and then petered out toward the end. The last series of multi-city road trips has been bad, I'll wager.
Which doesn't bode well for the Miami series starting tomorrow.

(trying to manifest a reverse jinx here)

Yesavage gave up 4 hits in the 2nd (2 off of fastballs, 2 off of cutters), but also has 2 clean innings, and has 6 Ks through 3ip now, with lots of swinging strikes.

8ks thru 4. many more swinging strikes.

So how does everyone feel about expansion and realignment? I'm in favor of it, even though I doubt there is any hope of Montreal getting a team.

Favorites for new clubs are Nashville and Salt Lake with Charlotte and Portland probably next in line. Austin or San Antonio Texas, Raleigh NC, with Mexico City & Montreal the dark horses. While Trump is in power I'd be shocked if a club was added outside the USA or moved there.

For our Jays the big news is that it would lead to radical geographic realignment at long last - Jays in the same division as the Tigers (and Cleveland and 1 other depending on how you divide up teams). The schedule reduced to 156 games (12 games against each of 3 teams in your division, 6 vs other teams in your league, 3 vs other league). Assorted oddball realignments are out there (Forbes has a dumb one with Jays-O's-Brewers-Cardinals, Jim Bowen has Jays-Tigers-Reds-Guardians), ESPN goes with 8 team divisions so Jays-NYY-Phillies-Mets-Red Sox-O's-Nationals-Expos [expansion]. Lots of others out there, but that gives one an idea to start from.

I'm fine with realignment as a concept, I just don't trust baseball to not try to use it for something dumb. If they try to make smaller, more local divisions, it will be a disaster because the best teams are in northeast and southwest so you have a division with Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Red Sox that's just absurd. I assume they'll want to make more playoff teams as well despite it already being too many IMO. (the goal of baseball and most owners is that teams should be able to compete without spending anything.)

Looks like starting in 2026, the Home Run Derby will be exclusive to Netflix, Sunday Night Baseball will be exclusive to NBC/Peacock, and the Wild Card round is TBD. Also, for those with MLB.TV, that's now being sold to ESPN. I guess anything is better than more Apple TV games, but disappointing to see them sell off MLB.TV.

The real proposal I saw had two new teams, Colorado and Tampa swapping leagues, and eight four team divisions. Toronto in AL East with… wait for it… New York, Boston, Baltimore.

Thomas Nestico @TJStats · Follow Trey Yesavage was dominant in AAA today as he struck out 8 over 4.2 IP. His high riding fastball continues to exhibit elite iVB with the MLB ball and his changeup returned a bonkers 72.7 Whiff%

Should Yesavage be on the Blue Jays roster in September? If so, how should he be used? Maybe as a one-inning reliever in the sixth and seventh innings (for now)?

Who should the September callups be? Contenders for the two spots:

Loperfido
Schreck
Yesavage
Fisher

Anyone else?

And now KC is only 2 games out of a playoff spot.

Santander, Garcia, Sandlin

Pitchers: I figure will be someone who has been here or Yesavage. Garcia #1 if healthy, Fisher #2, Sandlin #3 if healthy, Yesavage #4, slim shot for Manoah & Francis once healthy/ready. Lucas, Pena, Schultz, Bruihl, & Estrada are on the 'if multiple guys are hurt/suck' list.

Hitters: Santander if healthy (massive if), Loperfido #2, Jimenez if IF needed, Orelvis if ... OK, can't think of why he'd be up, Clase if they want more raw speed (27 SB in 62 AAA games this year 101 wRC+ there).

For Sept 1st I'd expect Loperfido & Fisher, but as the month goes along watch for Garcia & Santander if they get healthy enough, maybe Sandlin & Jimenez if guys have issues. Yesavage is damn tempting but I'd hold off on him unless he really is dominating in AAA (a 7.11 ERA won't cut it even with all the K's).

Fun reading some of the old topics that come up on the side at random - Coaching Changes was really interesting to go through. Many here were ready to dump pretty much everyone after 2013's disaster. Who knew in 2025 we'd still have Pete Walker as the pitching coach after that disaster season? 2013 was his first as the Jays pitching coach after all, and we saw all kinds of disasters that year. There also was a comment about the clock ticking on AA after 4 years of failure as GM.

Something I love about this site - how easy it is to look back and see how right or wrong we all were about things. Good way to keep humble, and remember how hard it must be to be a GM/manager/coach/player where every bad choice is remembered/debated forever.

Well, a lot of us were ready to get rid of John Schneider last year and even into the first part of this season, including myself. It's funny how winning makes a person look smarter, although I still don't trust him to make the right pitching decisions in a playoff game.

Both the Astros and Mariners are slumping a bit and the Jays are now 4 games up on Houston in the win column, I'm hoping New York and Boston split their series and we takes 2 out 3, at least from Miami.

Marlins are 27-33 at home and 3-7 in their last 10.

Thinking of how wrong I was, Baltimore is less than 2 games behind Tampa and my preseason prediction.

Following up on the Bieber question in the previous thread, what do people think he commands as a FA this offseason? If he pitches well down the stretch and in the postseason, is a contract a bit less than Fried’s about right? Maybe six years instead of eight? Bieber is a year and a half younger than Fried. If he looks good over the next couple of months, I think he’ll be very sought after.

Fried and Burnes money. Teams are going to see elite control, strong command and ace mentality and figure he saved a few years of arm damage during recovery. His age and profile will make a bidding war and hopefully he really likes it here, but even if he loves it here he must figure 3/5s or more of the rotation is gone after 2026.

As I mentioned before he's a California player so I expect similar preference as someone like Matt Chapman had. Wants to be on West Coast and close to water. The hope I have is he signed with CLE last year when he probably could have signed anywhere to rehab. Did he do it to be loyal or did he do it because he thought the org knew him best and would allow him to return as his best self from injury?

Shapiro could point Bieber to the internal rotation replacements that are coming: Yesavage, Stanifer, King (among others). After chasing Burnes and Fried and Sasaki last off-season, you would have to think Shapiro would be interested in a long-term contract with Bieber.

the hardest thing for toronto is usually getting guys to come here.

most of the time, after they've already been here, they're much more inclined to stay. should only help that this team is both good and fun to be on.

and i'm 100% sure the FO was thinking extension for Bieber from the start.

It depends on how Bieber looks the rest of the way. As we have seen with Alcantara, it's not a lock to see immediate results coming back from that injury, and Bieber only has maybe 6-7 regular season starts + the playoffs to market himself to teams so it won't be a big sample size. If he looks amazing, then he will be in good shape. Anything short of that, and it's possible the player option comes into play as he could enter the market the following season (lockout notwithstanding) in potentially a much better position to cash out after a full season.

Either way, the one thing the Jays are clearly not afraid to do under the Shapiro regime over the last 5+ years is spend big on free agents. So if Bieber likes it here then there's a chance for something long-term, but there are so many moving parts to this that it's impossible to speculate at this point.

There's also the QO to consider.
Bieber is not eligible now, but he would be next year.
Personal preferences? He's from California and there are spending teams there.

It seems you're including home games in there as well, no?

Yes, I did. After I was done, I recollected that you had specifically said road games!

Oh well. Hey, some of the sample sizes would have been absurdly small. The Yankees have only played 6 mid week afternoon day games? How many were at home? Couldn't find the will to care!

I say we need to find out what's happening on Sunday...

It amazes me how much the media changes their stance on something after someone with real knowledge shares an opinion. There were a lot of Luke warm responses to the Bieber trade which since the Fangraphs article was posted (see link in other thread) have dramatically changed to "this move is the steal of the trade deadline and I love this trade." All because someone at Fangraphs has objectively pointed out results which were already kind of there at time of trade.

FWIW Bieber doesn’t really align with the big dollar FA pitcher signings of this FO. He’s a high risk from a health perspective. I agree that they will likely try but I’m not sure that they will empty the bucket to get it done even if he looks great for the rest of the year. It will be interesting to see how they approach this.

eh, at the time of the trade Biebs hadn't thrown a pitch above AA in almost a year and a half, and even his 4ip in AA had been just good not great.

Three mostly dominant starts in AAA since the trade have rightly changed the outlook significantly.

UO, are you basing that view on pre-trade MILB stats only? I’m sure the Blue Jays did some heavy scouting of Bieber and review of his medicals leading up to the trade.

[Bieber's] from California and there are spending teams there.

Ah, that's exactly what I said about Gerrit Cole.

Well, a little Googling and stuff, and we learn that while Bieber got married in Malibu, he's got a $4.6 million home in the Phoenix area. Cleveland, of course, is one 15 teams that does spring training in Arizona. The Blue Jays aren't. So maybe Bieber will want to stay in the Cactus League - and did you know that the Cactus League was yet another Bill Veeck innovation! It doesn't matter - Veeck will mainly be remembered as the guy who sent a midget up to hit. But still...

yeah greenfrog just on his actual milb performances at the time.

and I bet all the contenders were looking at Bieber's medicals just like the Jays, but even with Bieber's upside, the Jays still won the bidding war by only giving up one decent-to-good prospect.

Now, 3 very good AAA starts later, i'm thinking some teams are already kicking themselves.

the hardest thing for toronto is usually getting guys to come here.most of the time, after they've already been here, they're much more inclined to stay. should only help that this team is both good and fun to be on.and i'm 100% sure the FO was thinking extension for Bieber from the start.

I 100% agree on this, uo.

Bieber said the food scene in TO has impressed him but the traffic has been bad. Hopefully by Oct/Nov his impression of the city + team is a good one!

In other news, the Orioles have extended a catcher, but it's Basallo, not Rutschman.

He has a great arm, but he might be Gary Sanchez at best behind the plate.

There's a long version of this story, but Veeck got the Cactus League going because he furious with Jim Crow policies in Florida. He integrated the AL by signing the great Larry Doby a couple of months after Jackie Robinson broke with the Dodgers. Veeck would be a great candidate for a baseball biopic--make in happen, Hollywood!

"Now, 3 very good AAA starts later, i'm thinking some teams are already kicking themselves."

I expect that the FO of interested teams had lots of information on Bieber that would have predicted his future performance in his 3 starts since the trade deadline. In my mind it would go something like "We are interested in Bieber, please send us what you have..."

Cleveland then sends a USB stick with pitching metric recordings, 3D renderings of pitches, spin rate, etc comparing his stuff to pre injury as well as video of his rehab. Atkins went on record after the trade to say they saw him pitch live and the stuff looked better than pre-surgery and called him "Elite," and that was before any of the last 3 starts.

They fully intend to resign him because he's great and because they have Gausman, Scherzer and Bassitt coming off the books and the free agent starters besides Bieber are not that good. What's the alternative, re-signing Bo and then running Manoah, Yesavage, Tiedeman out there behind Berrios and Lauer in their mid 30s?

There were also reporters post trade deadline who has spoken about Shane Bieber not being a trade candidate and that the Blue Jays and Cleveland made the deal quickly and Bieber wasn't shopped around. That would indicate the opposite of the idea that Toronto took a flyer on Bieber while other teams passed.

Generally speaking I also wonder why there are so many that write about Bieber as a project, risk or flyer. Tommy John success rates are extremely high. He's been elite. Control was always off the charts to the point that Bieber with less control is probably still top of the league. Lastly, he was never a fireballer so to speak. I don't know, maybe a lot of unfamiliarity with him but for me it would be similar to someone like Halladay or Brandon Webb or Logan Webb getting Tommy John surgery and some people wondering if they will come back strong. It's a foregone conclusion in my mind...

So in your mind Bieber was a near lock to return to elite form this year, everyone was aware of this, but Cleveland just gave him away to Toronto for an ok prospect, just for fun.

The Orioles just signed Samuel Basallo to an eight year extension?

Adley Rutschmann, call your agent.

Nope, in my mind I disagree with your suggestion that Toronto took a chance on Bieber and now other teams are kicking themselves for not doing the same since the past three rehab starts "have revealed" something they couldn't have otherwise seen or predicted.

No need to go to extremes to disagree.

And Khal Stephen is a top 100 prospect and climbing. I'd imagine most would not classify him as "decent to good prospect." No top 100 prospects were traded at the deadline unless for elite players like Mason Miller, right?

Bieber also missed three months of the 2021 season with a bad shoulder.

If Bieber comes back anywhere near what he was for the rest of this year, you better believe other teams will be kicking themselves for not beating our offer.

Food scene in Toronto good, traffic bad?  Hard to argue with that appraisal.

The Jays typically do pay more for durability, but I don't think they trade for Bieber as a ~8-10 start rental (counting on the post season) unless they intend to at least try to bring him back. Maybe he has no interest in playing for Toronto long-term and it ends up being a rental, but I don't feel like they make this move without trying to nail down some type of extension with him. Then again, you can certainly rationalize Khal Stephen as the cost of increasing the team's upside in a season where they have a chance to win the division and get a bye, even if it ends up being a rental. If they were fighting for a 2nd or 3rd Wild Card spot and made this trade, then adding him as a very brief rental would have made less sense.

Jays now rank 4th in MLB in fangraphs' projected rest of season WAR - though the teams around them mostly have more games left to play.

1. LAD (34gms): 11.0war (.324war/gm)
2. NYY (35gms): 10.6war (.303war/gm)
3. PHI (35gms): 10.5war (.300war/gm)
4. TOR (34gms): 10.1war (.297war/gm)
5. SEA (34gms): 10.0war (.294war/gm)
6. NYM (35gms): 10.1war (.289war/gm)
7. SDP (34gms): 9.8war (.288war/gm)
8. CHC (34gms): 9.3war (.274war/gm)
9. HOU (34gms): 9.0war (.265war/gm)
10. BOS (34gms): 8.8war (.259war/gm)


Upshot: current projections think these Jays are pretty much as good as any team not named the Dodgers.

Jays got Hoffman after 2 other teams passed after looking at medicals.
Santander didn't have a strong market.
Jays were not successful with other free agents.

Bieber will want to get paid.
I don't see how he picks the option unless he's back on the 60IL.
What happens after that depends on a lot of things.

Veeck would be a great candidate for a baseball biopic--make in happen, Hollywood!

The book "Our Team", by Luke Epplin, would be great source material for such a project!

Khal Stephen was also injured (and still is) at the time of the trade with a shoulder impingement (same thing Francis and Garcia had). That lessened his value and I don't think any of the top prospect evaluators saw him as a Top 100 prospect. No. 4 guy with an arrow up for possibly more especially in an org like Cleveland that really knows how to develop pitching.

"you better believe other teams will be kicking themselves for not beating our offer."

Again, the pundits have said that Bieber was not shopped. It was a deal that a Boston Red Sox writer says that the Boston FO was upset about not being notified by Cleveland that Bieber was even available.

Hard to pass on someone when you aren't even aware they are available.

Bieber's price will partially depend on who else is available. We know Scherzer and Bassitt of course, Framber Valdez is damn good (entering age 32, 175+ IP 3 years in a row and likely this year too, ERA+ of 120 or better 6 years in a row including this one, 4th straight year of 3+ bWAR); Dylan Cease has had a down year but is damn good too, led his league in starts 4 of the past 5 years including this one, 110 ERA+ lifetime, just a 91 this year at age 29 but a 3.65 FIP suggests he is unlucky. Both of these guys fit the Jays usual MO with starters - guys who can pitch a lot of innings and are well established as above average pitchers. Ranger Suarez is a solid guy but never has started 30 in a season or reached 160 IP so he is a likely Dodger (fits their usual target). Brandon Woodruff is a lot like Bieber - damn good when available but is recovering from missing all of 2024 and most of '25.

So if the Jays like Bieber but can't sign him then Woodruff is very similar, but Valdez is the #1 guy on the mound this winter. Cease will get paid. Suarez/Bieber/Woodruff are the 'you get quality when healthy but how many innings is a crapshoot'. Lots of others but those are the ones that jump out. I wouldn't be shocked if the Jays resign one of Scherzer or Bassitt if Bieber goes elsewhere, but expect them to be chasing hard for Bieber and if they lose him to be after Valdez.

dalimon5 - interesting that Boston didn't know Bieber was available. The advantage of the Jays having strong relations with Cleveland's front office I guess - they probably talk regularly and Cleveland knows if they want to get rid of a contract the Jays are there. If I was a Boston writer I'd be mad at the front office there for failing to make those relationships and not calling obvious cheapskates about anyone who is expensive there.

"Hard to pass on someone when you aren't even aware they are available"

When you see a pitcher as good as Bieber likely to be a free agent and already rehabbing with half a season left you best be asking about him, not waiting to be notified.

I'm sure teams knew he was available. The Jays had the luxury of being able to wait on him for almost a month because they already had 5 competent SP's and had over a 90% chance of playoffs at the deadline.

Most other teams were in much more dire straits on the SP front and needed immediate help, which I'm sure tempered his market.

There were also reporters post trade deadline who has spoken about Shane Bieber not being a trade candidate and that the Blue Jays and Cleveland made the deal quickly and Bieber wasn't shopped around.

It was mentioned by Dan Shulman during the broadcast that the Cleveland GM informed Bieber at 8:15 am on trade deadline today that he was heading to Toronto. After which he contacted Myles Straw to let him know he was Toronto-bound, along with starting a group chat with Andres Gimenez, Nick Sandlin & Ernie Clement.

Dan Shulman mentioned that Bieber later texted them a Forrest Gump "Waiting" meme while in limbo waiting for it to become official.

So at least according to Bieber's account, the groundwork for the trade was done on Wed the day before the Thurs deadline. It certainly doesn't sound like a last minute deal like the Louis Varland may have been.