Jesús Sánchez designated for assignment.

Should free up some playing time for Keys.

was a matter of time for Sanchez. Santander and Schreck also both potential options soon. Just can't carry 2 DHs. I think it was a decent gamble that didn't work out but hated the lack of plan around it for Jays to balance the team better.

Sanchez was a good risk to take given his profile (hits RHP, hits the ball hard, etc) after Santander was deemed injured before the season, but it absolutely failed and he should have been moved or DFA'd around the trade deadline. Might be a case of too little too late, especially since he literally cost the Jays a game with his defense in Tampa (a game that means a lot right now), but can't turn back time. Just have to move forward.

Santander had a nice EV on one out.

"Should free up some playing time for Keys."

One would think but Jays don't seem to agree. Keys had 0 Abs against A's and only 3 PAs in last 6 games. That's with Springer being banged up too. I don't think they trust Keys in OF which is fair and don't ever want to sit Vlad (which is dumb) which means it's very hard to get him ABs. Smith playing which makes sense because he's so hot but playing instead of Martin because Schneider can't not play Ernie every day. (I don't really think you need to get Martin abs , it's just an overall frustration with sticking with players who aren't doing well over and over again when other options do exist.)

RHB have a .299 wOBA against Bassitt this season, while LHB have a .392 wOBA. Clement starting instead of stacking LHB is typical John Schneider managing with his favoritism.

I'm sure Clement will go 4-4 now since I've put it out in the universe, and I hope he does, but it's laughable how loyal Schneider is to his guys when the numbers suggest otherwise.

Even if it's just Keys as a pinch hitter for a guy like Straw, because they have another defensive guy to sub back in after.

Smith is in left-field tonight.  I think I can understand why Schneider has decided to not put Rudy Martin or Sean Keys in LF and play Smith at second base.  Springer DHing, if he's banged up still, is another question.  He's hitting .125/.160/.208  in 25 PAs in September. Maybe he's recovered after the day off.  

Bullpen plus Arrighetti pitches tomorrow.

Cease starts Sunday.

Arrighetti has made 4 long appearances for the Blue Jays and given up 15 runs in 15.2 innings and been full value for that.  I'm mystified why you would have him pitching in anything but a low leverage situation or an emergency (like running out of relievers in a long extra-inning game).  

Tonight's lineup


(Asterisk needs platoon imo)


CF Bateman L
DH Springer R
1B Guerrero R
C Alejandro R
RF Lukes* L (* = Straw?)
3B Okamoto R
LF Smith* L (* = McAdoo?)
SS Gimenez L
2B Clement R


Bench

UT Keys L
OF Straw R
IF McAdoo R
C Valenzuela S
OF Martin L

X: Santander S


For better or worse, i'm pretty sure we're ride or die with our elite playoffs performers vladdy and ernie all the way to the end.

Plenty of defensive cover now whenever they feel the need to use Keys as PH.

Vlad can't do that.

Inexcusable baserunning error by Vladdy. It's not enough that he has killed the team at the plate this year, he's also doing on the basepaths -- this time in a critical late-season situation.

A continuation of the crappy play from Oakland, Locked in this team is not.

Max is throwing cement mixer sliders tonight.

Feels a bit like the walls are closing in on the Blue Jays' season. All the injuries, mediocre play from Ernie and Vladdy, Scherzer (currently the #3 SP) looking toasty, Cease's velo declining, no #4 and 5 SPs.

They couldn't capitalize against the second-worst team in the AL (the A's), and now they're having to face a real team that is deploying competent starting pitchers in this series.

John Schneider not doing anything about Vlad all season is definitely a red flag to me. You can’t manage year to year based on reputation or favoritism. If there isn’t merit based decision making then the org is not looking at things objectively.

Looks like Tiedemann wants to start. At least he, Bateman, & Okamoto are showing up through 6 tonight.
Someone page me if the Jays get within 2

Congratulations Brett Bateman.

Bateman up to a 138 wRC+. What a debut season he’s having.

Speaking of Tucker, he was 3/3 with a grand slam and a triple today.

Easiest game of the year to turn off after the second inning. Bad baseball is hard to cheer for.

Of course Jays just can't bench Vladdy but what I and some others (I think) are talking about is sitting his guys sometimes. Like today, Bassit 3.21 FIP against RHP, 5.47 against lefties and Keys and Martin are on bench. Sit Vladdy sometimes, sit Clement more than that. Whatever is wrong with Vladdy isn't going to be fixed playing him 7 times a week vs playing him 5.

You could also move him around in the lineup more (leadoff earlier in the season, or bottom 4 off late).

But I don't pretend to know what would work. It seems to me like Vlad is fully trying to do as good as he can, but just not succeeding. Don't know if there is a hidden injury or just luck or need the off season or (hopefully not) this is just the new normal.

Schneider can’t permanently bench Vlad but he can move him down in the order, give him more rest days to get other bats in the lineup, etc. A team that lives on the margins needs to optimize whatever they realistically can. If a manager’s entire logic is “he’s my guy, he’s done this before, it’s just a matter of time” then it’s devoid of any context (how the player actually looks) and is more likely to hurt the team for that season. That logic works when it’s June, not when it’s September and nothing has changed.

If the Jays, not just Schneider, are going to operate like this for the remainder of Vlad’s contract, meaning Vlad’s going to be batting 3rd in the 2039 lineup, then “worst contract in sports” might be too lenient.

The only good news is this group is no longer constantly advising people of the optimistic 130+ wRC+ projections for Vlad for the remainder of this season.

He looks horrible and isn’t turning it around.

I was at the game last night, so I didn't have the best view of the pitches.

Was Scherzer noticeably better in innings 3-5 or did the Orioles just not hit the mediocre stuff like they did on the first two innings?

There was talk on the broadcast that Scherzer may have been tipping early on. He and Walker talking in the dugout a lot after the 2nd and he seemed to make an adjustment after that.

The only good news is this group is no longer constantly advising people of the optimistic 130+ wRC+ projections for Vlad for the remainder of this season.

I can’t imagine thinking this was good news. Odd.

Easiest game of the year to turn off after the second inning. Bad baseball is hard to cheer for.

You missed a team actually showing something by battling back. Hope they can take this into the next game. You also missed Bateman’s performance, which was exciting as heck.

I’ve cheered for every version of this team since it was first created. However, I was a baseball fan before I was a Jays fan. Unsurprisingly, there have been Jays teams that I have enjoyed watching more than others. For me, my enjoyment isn’t directly correlated to the W/L record. There have been some poor Jays teams (from a record perspective) that I have thoroughly enjoyed watching. I can enjoy watching a modestly talented team that plays well and hard but still loses more than it wins. This year’s team has been a hard watch. Poor fundamentals, more poor defense than good and there have been times when I think this group has been disinterested. At this point in the season, I’m conflicted. On one hand my Jays’ fandom would like to see them make the playoffs. On the other, my baseball fandom thinks this year’s team is entirely undeserving. I’ll watch more than I won’t from here on out but I’m tired of watching bad baseball. I’m sure some posters will think that’s poor fandom.

Yeah there's still some ppl revelling in the possibility of failure for Vlad and the Blue Jays. The discussion about optimistic Vlad numbers was in relation to the silly idea being promoted last month that the Blue Jays had virtually zero chance of making the playoffs. Not sure why it's being brought up a month later that it's good nobody is talking about why Vlad shouldn't be a below average hitter. Bizarre indeed, though I never myself promoted Vlad as returning to his superstar norm.

I’m as die hard as it gets when it comes to supporting the Jays but I’m not just going to blindly be optimistic like some other posters here.

My whole point was it was misleading to constantly promote the fact that Vlad was still likely to return to a 130+ eye test because the projections said so… literally nothing, game after game, is indicative of him improving.

Do I want him to hit 3 home runs today? Of course… but I’m not going to just continually bat him third every game in the naive hope he’ll turn it around this year.

The race for the last WC spot also has become a consolation prize in itself for a team that started the year expecting to compete for the division & go on a deep run again in the playoffs.

With refocused expectations, it's been a bonus to have meaningful Aug & Sept baseball. Brett Bateman is found money & has made everyone forget Daulton Varsho overnight. We've had some limited looks at McAdoo & Keys & Tiedeman. The farm system (minus Nimmala) was reloaded with some mid-level prospects that haven't been seen in the majors yet after years of being raided every deadline for mid-season rentals.

But WC3 is still a moral victory. Of course, anything can happen if you make it to the dance. But no one really expects this 2026 version of the Jays to make hay against mucn superior competition in the 5 teams above them that have separated themselves from the pack (perhaps minus Chicago). One of the worst offenses in the league. Two MLB caliber SPs. A Vlad lost in the wilderness.

Of course we're all cheering for this team to nab the final spot. But WC3 is really this team's championship this year, after which the "we're just happy to be here" energy takes over.

I would much rather have the first pick in the draft next year than miss the playoffs by a game or two. I just have zero faith this team can do anything in the playoffs, and I’m not very excited about a 2020/21/22/23 style finish. I wrote off the season in June, so all I care about is 2027 forward.

Bateman has been a delight, and Kirk getting back to hitting give me hope that next year will be better.

In terms of “being a good fan”, I mean, I gave up hope of them winning anything, but I still renewed my season tickets and watch the games when I’m home.

It seemed to me that he was hanging breaking balls. Pitches where ending middle high rather than towards the bottom of the zone.

The Jays are never getting the first pick in the draft.
It's weird thing to wish for. Baltimore is loaded with #1 and and #2 and is not a better team than the Jays.

The Jays can beat any team in the division.
The Rays is the best team and they're far from perfect.

The loss of Yeasavage and Bieber has hurt.
Soriano is the one who gives me hopes for next year.

Cease
Soriano
Yesavage
Ponce
Perry

Is a nice foundation for the 2027 rotation. I’m sure the front office will also add some more arms after what happened this year. Wonder if King could force his way into the rotation late next year as well.

As far as not doing anything in the playoffs - only the rays have been better in the AL in the (Jays') last 40 games. Houston is 21-18 and the White Sox are 20-21

It's not impossible for the WC3 team (whomever) to end up in the ALCS at all.

Scott, you know the MLB uses a lottery system now, right? I’m not hoping they come dead last. I want them to win the lottery. At the time of the deadline their odds were about 7%. I don’t think it’s weird at all to want your team to keep adding the best talent possible. It’s no different than hoping they sign they sign the top FA.

"It's not impossible for the WC3 team (whomever) to end up in the ALCS at all."

I agree with TamRa. As of yestersday and the day before the Jays stink. But they've been good over the last 40 and any team has a puncher's chance in MLB playoffs. I think what makes a really good team fly and a not so great team flounder are a few fickle feathers tucked or laced this way or that -- and of course the luck of fortune's prevailing winds. I never count out a team till they've actually been mathematically eliminated.

The "crapshoot" nature of the playoffs doesn't apply, or is much harder to apply, to teams that don't hit home runs. The 2025 team hit home runs. The 2026 team needs four singles to get one run. I really don't see how the 2026 Jays do much of anything in the post season unless they are winning games 1-0 or get a HR barrage out of Vlad, which at this point even the most blindly optimistic people will not be expecting this season.

Does anyone watch highlights or get nostalgic for the 2023 Jays? I'm assuming no. I would expect any WC series the Jays may get involved in this season to end similarly, but at this point I'd much rather they make the playoffs and lose than miss it entirely. Jays fans are no where near being spoiled when it comes to playoff appearances. Give me as many as possible, even if advancing is a long shot.

SK in NJ:

I think the difference between a homerun and fly ball is not as great people imagine it to be. Probably a millimeter here or there. A small adjustment can change a lot.

Bateman now up to a .406 OBP and a 140 wRC+. Very impressive.

Brett Bateman 2027's clean up hitter?

Oh man do I ever hope Bateman can be a dude for this team

Bateman, wow. Current stats:

.345/.410/.454, wOBA .382, wRC+ 148, 3:0 SB:CS, 8.8%BB, 19.1%K

Could be the beginning of a beautiful relationship (with Blue Jays fans).

Right on cue, I mention the lack of home run power, and this happens. They read this forum and take motivation from it.

Brett Bateman is so much fun to watch.

Yeah, don't sign him to a 10-year extension, but who was the last guy who had that much fun playing the game?
Vladdy?

Hope Arrighetti gets over the bad umping. Looks like 2 low cb strikes got called balls.

Bateman is one of 21 AL rookies with at least 1.3 fWAR.

BAL, NYY, HOU, TEX, SEA have none.
DET, KCR, MIN, TBR 1 each.
ATH, LAA, BOS 2 each.
CWS, CLE 3 each.

That leaves one team and 5 rookies - the Blue Jays.

Bateman is fun to watch. I was shocked to see his HR yesterday not because he hit one but because of how long and easy it was. Maybe he's one of these guys who just works really hard and can improve more than you'd think. With his D and speed, he already has a high floor.

(ahem)
I think the difference between a homerun and fly ball is not as great people imagine it to be. Probably a millimeter here or there. A small adjustment can change a lot.

Will be interesting to see where the Bateman trade ends up ranking among Blue Jays trades.

Bautista
Donaldson
Teoscar
Devon Whyte
Vernon Wells (traded for Napoli and Rivera)
Varland
Alomar Jr.

Maybe Bateman will slot somewhere in there someday. (I’m probably missing some other all-time great trades.)

Miles might end up being one of the best Rule 5 picks as well.

Schneider is decent overall, but I think is either restrained by management or has a blind spot when it comes to Vlad.

I think Vlad is trying his hardest, but, when he repeatedly makes mistakes, there HAVE to be consequences or things will NOT change. I would have brought out Keys at 1B after Vlad got picked off / nincompooped on the bases YET (*&@(#*$& AGAIN. How many outs on the bases this year? Does he lead the league? This CANNOT just be glossed over or Schneider will lose the dugout, IMHO. 

Cleveland out to an early lead over Minnesota.

"Schneider is decent overall, but I think is either restrained by management or has a blind spot when it comes to Vlad."

His refusal to move Vlad in the lineup is absurd. Vlad has hit 2/3 all but 2 games this year (once 1st, once fifth). Contrast this with Okamoto who has been Jays best hitter overall this year and has hit 6-8th in the order 39 times already. Right now, is there any reason Vlad should be hitting 3rd and Okamoto hitting 6th? It doesn't make sense for the year but even worse looking at recent numbers. Since August 1st, Okamoto has a 117 WRC+ and Vlad has a 71 WRC+.

Has anyone asked Schneider why Vlad hasn't hit lower?

It is worth noting that even with the poor season Vlad is 2nd in the team regulars in OBP with 332 (Kirk 349). Bateman (404) and Smith (370) obviously doing well in the SSS. Okamoto that was suggested is at 309. Lukes 319, Springer 323. So the 2 spot for Vlad based on OBP isn't such an unreasonable place even with the terrible year. It is the power that has been missing from Vlad (I mean Straw has more ISO than Vlad this year, Gimenez almost as much).

Twins are hanging on, 4-3 over Cleveland heading to the bottom of the sixth in Minnesota.

John Schneider treating a 4 run lead like a save situation has always been one of his more baffling managerial traits (and he has a bunch of them).

Guess JS really wanted to lock down the four-run lead, hence Varland. I think I would have just used Rogers to pitch a second inning.

Schneider basically said that moving Vlad lower wouldn't change anything because of Vlad's personality. I don't know if anyone asked if batting him lower would lead to more runs.

when you invest $500m in a player he has the longest of leash and this is the first year of the deal - the jays are stuck!

Daaaaaaaa guardians lose!

1 GB

How about "outs on the bases PER time on base"? He hasn't been on base as much, hence less chances to screw up.

I'm not sure of an easy way to track times on base when you count fielders choices or what not, but a quick and dirty thing would be H+BB-HR for times you are a baserunner.

Vlad 131+52-8 = 175

Okamoto 123+52-31 = 144
Clement 149+21-9 = 161
Springer 106+43-14 = 135

Seems like Vlad's been on base more than others, much more than some. Statcast baserunning values give Vlad the most total advance attempts and most XB advance attempts (and have him at -1 run). Despite far less opportunities the Jay with the best baserunning value from statcast is Brett Bateman (at +1 run).

Hits+BB+HBP

Guerrero 186
Okamoto  178
Clement  172
Springer 150
Gimenez  135

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2026-batting.shtml

Getting more granular, BBRef has expanded baserunning stats for individual players if you scroll down far enough on the team offensive stat profiles.

It includes hard to find on-base data like Catcher's Interference & Reached on Error.

It also has baserunning stats like % of Extra Bases Taken.

"It is worth noting that even with the poor season Vlad is 2nd in the team regulars in OBP with 332 (Kirk 349). Bateman (404) and Smith (370) obviously doing well in the SSS. Okamoto that was suggested is at 309. Lukes 319, Springer 323. So the 2 spot for Vlad based on OBP isn't such an unreasonable place even with the terrible year. It is the power that has been missing from Vlad (I mean Straw has more ISO than Vlad this year, Gimenez almost as much)."

Sure, but most of that OBP for Vlad is April. He had a .438 OBP in April and a .298 OBP and 74 WRC+ since May 1st.

Criticizing Vladdy for his base running seems odd to me. He’s had some world class slides recently. Subjectively, he has taken an extra base at close to an elite level. He’s not quick but, once he’s up to speed, he’s an above average runner. Occasionally, he does something stupid on the base paths but it’s not frequent. Base running feels like the least likely place to criticize Vladdy.

Maybe the frustration stems from the pickoff of Vladdy at second base in game 2 of the WC series against Minnesota. Seeing it happen again in a key situation with the season potentially on the line might be triggering for some fans.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-guerrero-jr-picked-off-with-bases-loaded-leaves-fans-fuming/

There is a pretty thin margin from this bad season for Vlad and a normal season for him. As covered above he's still been getting on base a bunch, it is the power that is missing. In a typical year Vlad hits 25-30 HR if you look at his HR/PA rate and give him a healthy season. His line this season is now:

259/331/352 683 OPS

If you just once every 10 days or so change 1 PA from an out to a HR (so 3 extra HR in April, May, June, July, August, and 2 extra for March/Sept to date) you'd get 17 extra HR to take him from the 8 HR he currently has to 25 HR on the season with 2 weeks left which would be a totally normal season for him. That change would give him a stat line of:

293/361/487 848 OPS

which would be more or less on his career 285/362/478 840 OPS line.

His career best 2021 when he had 48 HR which is about as far from his norm rate as this season (just over norm rather than under norm) so if you gave him an extra 34 HR instead of 17 (so this is changing roughly 1 PA every 5 days or so) he'd be at 42 HR so far this season and his line would be a MVP like:

327/391/622 1013 OPS

So it is a relatively small adjustment from this year's bad Vlad to normal Vlad (17 PA total on the season so far, roughly 1 every 10 days). About half of those PA would be in games the Jays already won (maybe more even as it is easier to feast on bad pitching), so say 8 of those HR might have been in games the Jays lost, and probably at least half of those the Jays would have still lost. So we're probably looking at something like 2-4 more games won at most if you do make this change. Not a lot, but maybe enough when you are as close to the edge as we are.

just for fun I took your idea and ran with it, checking the results of every tenth day and adding one run.

Yes I know it's VERY slopy, like I said, just for fun.

Five times in those games...the Jays lost by one run.

Interesting thought experiment. But even accepting this methodology, 2-4 more wins im 2026 would have the Blue Jays in a significantly better position in the standings. They would be in WC3 by a small-to-substantial margin.

Also — I think it’s clear from watching Vladdy this year that something is wrong with him mentally or physically. His mechanics/approach look off, sometimes badly off. This not a situation of “good approach / unlucky results.”

Based on his contract, you would hope that Vladdy is a perennial 4+ WAR player (in his prime at least). By way of comparison, Miguel Cabrera posted a wRC+ between 129 and 193 every year from age 21-33. He never had anything like this season happen to him during those prime years.

Baseball Savant gives Vladdy a 17th percentile Batting Run Value this year, which is very low for a superstar hitter. Interestingly, his Savant page suggests that Launch Angle is a big part of the problem. His Launch Angle Sweet Spot% is in the 3rd percentile.

There is also the potentially synergistic effect of (in Schneider’s words) “when (Vladdy) goes, it seems like it's easier for everyone else to go, too.” So Vladdy hitting well may provide some additional benefits to the team beyond the “home run every ten days” mentioned upthread.

Some quotes from John Schneider on August 26th:

"I don’t want to punish him. I think if there were guys tearing the cover off the ball, that would be a little easier to think about, too."

"I want him up in important spots.”

“He’s pretty fine with [hitting] anywhere, but I think that he deserves to be somewhere in the middle of the order, looking in relation to who else is on the roster.”

"That was reactionary and me being young in the job … and dumb. I think Bo is different than Vlad. You can strategically try to piss him off to get him going. I don’t think that strategically pissing off Vlad is going to change much.

The only hitter that has been worse since then is Clement, and the only one who hasn't been significantly better is Gimenez.

Maybe Valenzuela is learning to challenge after all.

He did it!

VGJ home run at home! Best contract extension ever. 2026 WS championship awaits.

B2B2B home runs!

Glad to see Vlad got the monkey off his back. Hopefully that helps him turn the page.

I missed the start of this game - what the heck happened in the first with Cease?

Vladdy’s OPS is now in the 700s…

SK in NJ can you please assert that the Blue Jays won't hit home runs before the Tigers series too?

Coming in to today jays were tied for 7th best wRC+ in mlb since the deadline. Probably top 5 after today.

Jays are now in 6th place in the AL.

1.5gms out of 4th.

It is fun to see the HR after the conversation here over the past day about his HR hitting/hitting this season. Hopefully this is the start of Vlad heating up for the end of regular season and playoffs.

"SK in NJ can you please assert that the Blue Jays won't hit home runs before the Tigers series too?"

My pessimism has to come organically for it to work. I can't fake it.

Cleveland isn't letting up any time soon it seems.

The White Sox and Guardians both have an easy schedule down the stretch. The team most likely to crumble down the stretch between those two is the White Sox, but the Jays don't hold the tiebreaker there. The Rangers aren't going away either. Going to be a tough final two weeks, but at least it's meaningful baseball.

Hazel Mae
@thehazelmae
Trey Yesavage will pitch Wednesday in Buffalo and should line him up for Sunday or Monday in Baltimore.

“Most likely Monday.”

- John Schneider


Hazel Mae
@thehazelmae
·
1m
Blue Jays now say Tuesday in Buffalo

12 games left. Needed record to make the postseason…8-5? 9-3? 10-2?

I’ll guess 9-3, given that DeLauter and Martinez are back in the Cleveland lineup. But honestly, could be 10-2

I can't fake it.

Nice! this was funny to me.

The White Sox and Astros falling back might have scaled back a bit the need for the Jays to get super hot. If the Sox go 6-7, then 8-4 by the Jays (with a series win vs. Texas) almost assuredly gets them in.

FG make playoff odds:

White Sox 76.6%
Guardians 68.0%
Blue Jays 43.4%
Rangers 23.6%
M’s 8.5%
O’s 1.6%

Better way to read the fangraphs odds imo:

3rd Wildcard odds

CHI/CLE 44.4%
TOR 43.7%
HOU/TEX 8.7%
Other: 3.3%

Either way the Blue Jays chances of making the postseason are currently around 43%. That number will start moving up and down a lot with each win and loss in the next couple of weeks.

Way to go Vlad! That's the 2nd big day this month (IIRC) and gives some hope he's recovering a bit!

Great way for Cease to battle.

I agree that it seems most likely that we'll catch CWS rather than CLE at this rate. But the best part is that they play each other next, so that for the next 3 games, only one of those two can win. If we get hot and things break right, we could be ahead of BOTH of them in 3 games. Even if we win 2/3, we'll make up ground on one of them, and then we can almost sorta control our own fate! And it would be kind of sweet to (more or less) eliminate the Tigers, and then the Rangers and then the Os!

Here's hoping the Royals go on a late season bender (they play both CLE and CWS)! 

White Sox @ Guardians - jays need a sweep by either team.

I think he needed the IL stint. He’s look a lot better at the plate since coming off it.

His September OPS is now nominally below .900 but he’s looked his regular self to me since coming off the IL. The ball is coming off hard and hasn’t been beaten into the ground right to where the 6 is standing. He’s been spraying the ball more- he was about two feet away from an opposite field shot today. He has had several similarly hard hit balls recently.

It remind me of the year he battled a wrist injury - the year he won the HR derby but had mysteriously lost about 10-15 feet on his fly balls. Obviously it’s concerning if a guy signed for so much for so long is seemingly so close to being barely playable…but I’ve been encouraged by the signs of life over the last month. He couldn’t have picked a more crucial time to get right.

in the first 108 games (2/3 of the schedule) the Jays were 49-59 and they scored 3.94 runs per game, while allowing 4.52

Since then they're 37-16, scoring 4.44 and allowing 3.53

Side note - if the Jays were .500 the rest of the way their pace for the last third of the season would be the equivalent of a 99 win season

Vlad has a 53.8% hard hit rate in September so far, easily best of the season so there's something there. If he can even be last year's version of himself, Jays have a much better shot. What they really need is another one of the starters back: Yesavage or Bieber. Right now, Rotation is Cease, Soriano, Scherzer, Arighetti/bullpen, Miles/Bullpen. To be able to get a guy who can give you 5-6 decent innings would be huge. Jays do have 2 off days the next 2 Thursdays which helps some.

Tigers are tricky. They aren't great but they have a better run differential than Tampa does and they are a decent team. Jays will face Melton who is an excellent pitcher but then maybe 2 bullpen games? They have a very deep lineup with a ton of young talent. Their big weakness is end of rotation and bullpen. Hopefully, Jays can channel some of that 2025 Jays stuff and see a lot of pitches and make it difficult on the starters to get to bullpen early. Melton is excellent for example, but he's gone under 6 innings in 4 his past 5 starts. Tire bullpen from day one and you put yourself in great position for series.

I don't think a CWS/CLE sweep is needed, as it would mean losing a game on one of the two teams unless the Jays manage their own sweep.

Those runs in the 8th last night were really big. They allowed Varland to sit down, so the Jays now have him along with Little, Mantiply, and likely Sewald/Fisher available tonight. Hopefully Soriano has another 7 inning start in him.

Ideally, it's a CWS sweep vs the Guardians.

I still think it's best to keep both teams in reach. Especially since I think CLE is just better than CHI.

my ideal is sweeping the tigers while CLE takes 2 of 3. That would put us in 4th place with both those teams having to pass us down the stretch.

The Pale Hoses are 4-9 recently and have been swept by the Bucs last week. What are the odds they sweep the Guards? Not even 1%, I think. Could they fumble their way out of the playoffs? It will be hard as they face Detroit, KC and Colorado for another 10 games.

They Jays will likely need 82 or 83 games, that means going 7-5 or 8-4. That's the 40% odds they have. Making it with 81 wins is very unlikely.

The Detroit run differential overstates their quality since pre-deadline that included Skubal pitching for them. Post deadline they really white flagged it. Nonetheless a sweep by Jays is hard and it is really one game at a time, but we shall see.

BTW a number of articles are suggesting Skubal might be looking at/might get a $500M contract in the offseason and the Jays are one of the 3 teams or so people are thinking might be in on Skubal for next year. A healthy/effective Vlad + Skubal would sure make this team much stronger next year than this.

Oh what a rotation that would be - Skubal-Cease-Soriano-Yesavage-Ponce with Miles-Arrighetti-Tiedemann-etc. as backups. Solid top 4, maybe a solid 5 depending on Ponce's recovery. The next few are decent backups, heck Miles could deserve a slot regardless. Plus Johnny King, Nolan Perry, and other prospects working their way up.

I mean, if Skubal's price is decent or Jays want to get to Dodger-level spending, I'd go for him, but really feels like Jays need offense WAY more than they need pitching. Cease, Soriano, Yesavage, free agent at Bieber level, Ponce, Berrios, Bloss, Arighetti, Perry, King seems like more than good enough to me in both quality and depth.

On the other hand, Jays offense is weak and is losing Springer. Jays could really use a 2Bman, LFer, and CFer at least next season.

Since the deadline (per fangraphs, with AL Ranks):


Hitters

Runs/gm: 1.TBR 5.21, 2.BOS 4.85, 3.CLE 4.57, 4.KCR 4.51, 5.NYY 4.45, 6.TOR 4.44

wRC+: 1.BOS 112, 2.TBR 109, 3.TOR 108, 4.SEA 105, 5.NYY 103

BSR: 1.KCR 1.5, 2.TBR 1.4, 3.MIN 0.7, 4.TOR 0.7, 5.ATH 0.5

DEF: 1.TOR 9.4, 2.KCR 3.2, 3.CLE 2.3, 4.TEX -0.3, 4.BOS -1.7

WAR: 1.TOR 7.6, 2.BOS 7.2, 3.TBR 6.9, 4.KCR 5.6, 5.CLE 5.6



Pitchers

Runs/gm: 1.NYY 3.43, 2.LAA 3.68, 3.TOR 3.74, 4.KCR 4.11, 5.DET 4.16

ERA-: 1.NYY 75, 2.LAA 82, 3.TOR 82, 4.BOS 87, 5.DET 91

FIP-: 1.LAA 85, 2.BOS 87, 3.NYY 92, 4.CLE 94, 5.TBR 96, 6.BAL 97, 7.TOR 98

xFIP-: 1.NYY 89, 2.BOS 91, 3.LAA 93, 4.CLE 94, 5.TBR 96, --- 11.TOR 104

fWAR: 1.BOS 6.1, 2.LAA 5.8, 3.TBR 4.5, 4.NYY 4.2, 5.HOU 4.0, --- 10.TOR 3.4

ra9WAR: 1.NYY 7.8, 2.LAA 6.5, 3.BOS 6.3, 4.TOR 6.0, 5.KCR 5.6

avgWAR: 1.BOS 6.2, 2.LAA 6.2, 3.NYY 6.0, 4.TBR 4.9, 5.TOR 4.7



Team

Win%: 1.TBR .658, 2.NYY 622, 3.TOR .605, 4.BOS .564, 5.KCR .541

Rundiff/gm: 1.NYY 1.03, 2.TBR 1.00, 3.BOS 0.72, 4.TOR 0.71, 5.KCR 0.41



The defense is getting much of the credit for the run prevention, though the pitchers themselves are pretty good, especially given they're doing multiple bullpen days every time through the rotation.



The stats for the actual pitchers that'll be on the roster if we're ever healthy:

Starters (Cease, Soriano, Yesavage, Bieber, Scherzer):

84era-, 91fip-, 99xfip-

Relievers (Varland, Miles, Rogers, Fluharty, Fisher, Mantiply, Little, Sewald, Tiedemann):

33era-, 80fip-, 96xfip-

CFer? Careful, Glevin, those are dangerous waters to be treading in right now. They'll be fine if they add two of the guys from your list in the last thread.

Just realized the typo - 26-16 (not 37-16 obviously)

Only the Rays and Padres have been better.

5th in the AL in runs scored, second in runs allowed.

Over the same period Detroit is 19-22
Texas is 19-24
Baltimore is 20-22
Cincinnati is 20-23 (and has given up the most runs in the majors)


Among (other) competitors:
Cleveland 21-20
Houston 21-20
CWS 21-22

The top 4 teams are all AL East

This is Rotographs from 4 days ago:

"Bateman has strong plate discipline skills, with an 83.1% contact rate and a 6.9% swinging-strike rate. In the minors, Bateman regularly stole 20+ bases. Bateman is a high-end athlete with an 87th-percentile Sprint Speed, 92nd-percentile arm strength, and strong defensive metrics. Though Bateman’s 7% stolen base opportunity rate is low, one should expect more steals with a larger sample."


CF is close to the least of the Jays worries next year.

Bateman's arm strength has been another pleasant surprise.

I'm not sure he's actually cut down any runners.

But there's been a few times he's effortlessly arced a throw back into the infield from RF or from pretty deep that looked impressive from the broadcast view.