Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Toronto at Miami, August 22-24

On to south Florida. Quickly, before the seas rise and leave it all underwater.

In the Pirates thread, I took a quick look at how deep AL starters were going into games. I called the metric I had come up with Depth Points. It was a goof, based on simple accumulation., It simply assigned everyone 1 point for completing 5 innings, an additional 2 points for completing 6 innings, another 2 for completing 7, and 2 more for making it through 8 or 9.

This is some real high-level analysis here, folks. But look, how much did you pay for the ticket? That's right - exactly what I'm getting paid for the product.

I also threatened to produce a Data Table with the complete findings, but in the meantime it occurred to me - wouldn't it be cool if I could call my metric Depth Charges? It just sounds neat.

But a Depth Charge is something you probably want to avoid. I'm not a military man, but I do prefer to avoid charges whenever possible. They seldom seem a good thing, especially when law enforcement gets involved. So while I had originally just accumulated the Goodness of pitching deep into the game, I instead needed a nifty way to chart the Badness of getting knocked out early.

First I simply reversed the formula, assigning the same penalties on the same sliding scale for progressively earlier exits from the game. That didn't seem to work. The pitchers with the smallest Depth Charges were guys like Clarke Schmidt and Tyler Mahle - because they've only started 14 games, which puts a ceiling on the accumulation of Badness.

A simple solution presented itself. I took my Depth Charges, divided them by the number of starts, and hey presto! Did I get something a little more meaningful? Let's not get carried away. Not quite as meaningless, perhaps.

But, by some happy (and completely unanticipated!) coincidence, you may regard the resulting Depth Charge as something that measures what will be required from your bullpen after this starter hits the showers.

                                     Completed Innings          DEPTH
Pitcher & Team          STARTS  0  1  2  3   4  5  6   7  8  9  CHARGES
      
 1  Woo  SEA               24   0  0  0  0   0  0 18   6  0  0  3.50
 2  Crochet  BOS           25   0  0  0  0   1  6  7   8  2  1  3.52
 3  Valdez  HOU            25   0  0  0  0   1  5 10   6  2  1  3.60
 4  Skubal  DET            25   0  0  0  0   1  6  7  10  0  1  3.68
 5  Giolito  BOS           19   0  1  0  1   4  0  1   8  3  1  4.00
 6  Brown  HOU             25   0  0  0  0   1  7 12   4  1  0  4.24
 7  Houser  TBR            14   0  0  0  0   1  4  6   2  1  0  4.29
 8  Fried  NYY             25   0  0  0  1   1  8  7   8  0  0  4.40
 9  Rodon  NYY             26   0  0  0  0   1 10 10   4  1  0  4.46
10  Gausman  TOR           25   0  0  1  0   2  8  7   4  3  0  4.48

11  deGrom  TEX            24   0  0  0  0   1 10  8   4  1  0  4.50
12  Ryan  MIN              24   0  0  0  0   0 11  8   5  0  0  4.50
13  Eovaldi  TEX           21   0  0  1  1   1  5  7   4  1  1  4.57
14  Bubic  KCR             20   0  0  1  0   1  7  5   6  0  0  4.70
15  Kremer  BAL            24   0  0  0  0   3 11  3   6  1  0  4.75
16  Bello  BOS             22   0  0  0  0   5  3 11   2  0  1  4.82
17  Castillo  SEA          26   0  0  0  0   4  8  9   5  0  0  4.85
18  Soriano  LAA           26   0  0  0  2   4  6  6   8  0  0  4.92
19  Pepiot  TBR            26   0  1  0  0   2  6 15   1  1  0  4.92
20  Wacha  KCR             25   0  0  0  0   2 12  8   2  1  0  4.96

21  Cecconi  CLE           16   0  0  0  1   3  4  4   3  1  0  5.00
22  Kirby  SEA             16   0  0  0  1   1  5  7   2  0  0  5.00
23  Martin  CWS            18   0  0  0  0   1  8  8   1  0  0  5.00
24  Severino  ATH          24   0  0  0  1   3  8  8   3  1  0  5.00
25  Lugo  KCR              24   0  0  0  1   3  6 13   0  1  0  5.08
26  Bibee  CLE             25   0  0  0  0   5 10  5   4  1  0  5.12
27  Schmidt  NYY           14   0  0  0  1   2  3  6   2  0  0  5.14
28  Cameron  KCR           18   0  0  0  0   3  6  8   1  0  0  5.22
29  Berrios  TOR           26   0  0  0  1   4  8 10   3  0  0  5.23
30  Kikuchi  LAA           27   0  0  1  0   2 13  7   4  0  0  5.26

31  Mahle  TEX             14   0  1  0  0   0  6  5   2  0  0  5.29
32  Baz  TBR               25   0  0  0  3   3  8  6   4  1  0  5.36
33  Bassitt  TOR           26   0  0  2  0   2 10  9   3  0  0  5.46
34  Sugano  BAL            24   0  0  0  2   5  7  5   5  0  0  5.50
35  Spring  ATH            24   0  0  2  2   2  4 12   2  0  0  5.67
36  Williams  CLE          25   0  0  1  2   3  8  9   1  1  0  5.68
37  Paddack  DET           25   0  0  0  1   4 14  3   2  1  0  5.68
38  Lorenzen  KCR          19   0  0  1  0   5  5  5   3  0  0  5.68
39  Bradley  TBR           21   0  2  0  0   3  5  8   3  0  0  5.71
40  Ober  MIN              21   0  0  1  1   4  6  6   3  0  0  5.71

41  Mize  DET              21   0  1  0  2   2  7  6   3  0  0  5.81
42  Hendricks  LAA         24   0  0  0  3   2 10  8   1  0  0  5.83
43  Anderson  LAA          24   0  0  0  0   7  8  9   0  0  0  5.83
44  Evans  SEA             15   0  0  0  0   4  8  2   0  1  0  5.87
45  Allen  CLE             23   0  0  0  2   4  9  7   1  0  0  5.91
46  Eflin  BAL             14   0  1  0  1   1  5  5   1  0  0  6.00
47  Hancock  SEA           15   1  0  0  0   2  6  5   1  0  0  6.00
48  Corbin  TEX            23   0  0  1  1   3 13  3   1  1  0  6.00
49  Flaherty  DET          25   0  0  1  2   4  8  9   1  0  0  6.00
50  Morton  DET            21   0  0  2  1   2  7  9   0  0  0  6.10

51  Lopez  ATH             16   0  1  1  1   3  3  3   4  0  0  6.13
52  Sears  ATH             24   0  0  0  2   4 12  6   0  0  0  6.17
53  Gilbert  SEA           18   0  0  1  1   2 10  3   1  0  0  6.22
54  Rasmussen  TBR         25   0  0  2  1   2 13  7   0  0  0  6.24
55  Buhler  BOS            22   0  0  2  1   6  5  5   3  0  0  6.27
56  Lauer  TOR             14   0  0  0  2   4  4  3   0  1  0  6.29
57  Povich  BAL            14   0  0  0  1   5  4  4   0  0  0  6.43
58  Leiter  TEX            22   0  0  0  4   4  9  4   1  0  0  6.55
59  Smith  CWS             22   0  0  1  2   5  9  5   0  0  0  6.64
60  Gusto  HOU             15   0  0  1  2   4  3  5   0  0  0  6.80

61  Burke  CWS             20   0  0  0  5   4  6  4   1  0  0  6.80
62  Kochanowicz  LAA       22   0  0  1  3   6  6  6   0  0  0  6.82
63  Warrren  NYY           26   0  2  0  2   5 12  4   1  0  0  6.85
64  Woods-Richardson  MIN  16   0  0  0  1   7  7  1   0  0  0  7.00
65  Rocker  TEX            14   0  1  0  3   3  4  2   1  0  0  7.29
66  Ortiz  CLE             16   0  0  0  3   6  6  1   0  0  0  7.38
67  Francis  TOR           14   0  1  0  3   4  3  3   0  0  0  7.57
68  Cannon  CWS            17   0  1  3  2   6  4  1   0  0  0  8.59

Here's another way to look at it:

AL Starter Most Likely To Complete:

5 Innings - Joe Ryan and Bryan Woo. Every single time, and you can't beat that. We can also single out Carlos Rodon, Garrett Crochet, Framber Valdez, Tarik Skubal, and Jakob deGrom - they've each come up short just once. (Least likely? Jonathan Cannon, Bowden Francis, Luis Ortiz)

6 Innings - Bryan Woo. Again, every single time and this morning the Athletic noted that he was the first pitcher to work through six innings in each of his starts since Zack Greinke in 2015. Still six weeks to go, of course. Also impressive are some of the usual suspects: Valdez, Crochet, Skubal. (Least likely: Cannon, Ortiz, Simeon Woods-Richardson)

7 Innings - Lucas Giolito. This is extremely weird, but if Giolito can just make it through four innings - something not at all guaranteed - he's going deep into the night! Crochet and Skubal are next in line. (Least likely? well, a dozen of the 68 AL starters here have not once made it through 7 innings this season. The four who've already come up - Cannon, Ortiz, Francis, Woods-Richardson - plus Povich, Gusto, Rasmussen, Anderson, Morton, Sears, Kochanowicz, and Smith)

8 Innings - Lucas Giolito, still. Next in line are Crochet, Skubal, and Kevin Gausman. (Least likely? Almost everyone. This is terra incognita for 44 of our 68 starters)

**************************

OK, enough of this nonsense. What's happening tonight?

Well, Cal Quantrill was the scheduled starter for the Fish tonight. Seeing as how the Braves just claimed him on waivers, it seems rather unlikely now. They'll find someone, I'm sure. Meanwhile Shane Bieber makes his much-anticipated Blue Jays debut.

In the second half of July, the Marlins put together a nice stretch of baseball, winning 13 of 17 and drawing even at .500 (55-55) for the first time since mid-April. Did they dream of getting hot, and sneaking into the post-season, just as they had in 2023? They were, at that time, six games back of the final Wild Card spot. But a long, painful road trip (3-9) has probably put any such fantasies to rest. They may only be one game further back, but those two weeks have come off the schedule and they're not coming back.

Matchups

Fri 22 Aug - Bieber (---,-.--) vs S.Guy (?-?, ?.??)
Sat 23 Aug - Berrios (9-5, 4.00) vs Junk (6-2, 4.04)
Sun 24 Aug - Gausman (8-9, 3.78) vs Perez (5-3, 3.48)

Posted by Magpie on Friday, August 22 2025 @ 04:43 PM EDT.

Toronto at Miami, August 22-24 | 123 comments | Create New Account

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scottt - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#466767) #

Ryan Gusto recalled from AAA for the start.

scottt - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#466768) #

I was wondering about games starting at 6:40 in Pittsburgh. Apparently it's to boost attendance and concession sales.

Mike Green - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#466769) #

Mucho Gusto in South Florida?

If he had a big-time fastball, it would work and appropriate given the next starter for the Marlins.

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#466770) #

I was going to make a joke about Miami calling 1-800-GOT-JUNK when they needed a SP, but thought better of it. Besides, he pitched well against Crochet and Boston in his last start. I don’t want to provoke him into doing it again against the Blue Jays.

Magpie - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#466771) #

Carl Yastrzemski is 86 today. It goes against the grain to think well of anyone associated with the Red Sox, but for Yaz I can make an exception.

Glevin - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#466772) #

I've seen enough. Extend Bieber!

SK in NJ - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#466773) #

Bieber looked great in the first.

Magpie - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#466774) #

Might be a keeper.

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#466775) #

I guess someone has moved on from calling Khal Stephen an “insane price” to pay for Bieber (yes, I looked at the trade thread yesterday)…

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#466776) #

Repeating the question I asked a few series ago, is Varsho making a Cal Raleigh-type giant leap forward? Maybe with the help of Popkins & co?

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#466777) #

Props again to dalimon, who recommended the Blue Jays acquire Bieber leading up to the deadline, when everyone else was focused on SPs like Ryan, Keller, deGrom, Kelly, etc. Great call.

Magpie - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#466778) #

is Varsho making a Cal Raleigh-type giant leap forward?

It would sure be cool, but I don't dare hope!

Besides, I'm suddenly distracted by an unexpected insight:

Brendon Little = Mitch Williams. They might as well be the same guy.

Possibly different personalities, I wouldn't know.

dalimon5 - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#466779) #

Thanks Greenfrog. Just happy the Jays got a top of rotation arm. I really enjoy watching Bieber's control. This guy can completely control a line up like Halladay did. I remember watching Halladay just dominate a line up with one pitch and it was incredible. Bieber can basically live where he wants in the zone and force hitters to try to beat him that way. It's almost Maddux like but death by 1000 paper cuts. By the third time through the order the opposing hitters are just hoping to make contact never mind a hit.

Bieber either lost command on 4 or 5 pitchers tonight or he got lazy and challenged the hitter center cut...Marc can probably provide insight...typically Bieber wouldn't put a pitch in the middle on a 3-2 pitch for example.

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#466780) #

Remember when Bautista, in his age-28 season, hit 10 HR in 125 September PA in 2009 and everyone was like, what the…?

In his age-28 season (he just turned 29 a month ago), Varsho has an even more impressive 14 HR in 159 PA.

Magpie - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#466782) #

What Bautista suddenly became in September 2009 was... completely out of the blue. He'd been in the league for years, he'd been a regular for several seasons, he'd never hit more than 16 HRs in a single season.

Varsho merely has a chance to establish a new career high for home runs in a single month. But he hasn't done it yet. He hit 9 homers in the final month of 2022.

But what I haven't seen from him nearly as much is all the futile flailing away at the fastball at the top of the zone.

pooks137 - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#466783) #

I remember lots of people, including Bauxites, wanting JPR to outright release Bautista after the Robinzon Diaz trade. Much like modern day Ty France.

scottt - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#466784) #

Bieber has the ability to pound the outside corner with breaking balls, both sides. Hard to get hurt there. He's also painting the edges with the fastball.

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#466785) #

Varsho ISO

2020 .178
2021 .190
2022 .207
2023 .169
2024 .194
2025 .343

Varsho xwOBA

2020 .288
2021 .323
2022 .298
2023 .302
2024 .261
2025 .355

Maybe it's just a hot streak, but he's having his best offensive season by a lot (admittedly in a somewhat modest sample size). It feels like maybe he's figured some things out under Popkins.

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#466786) #

Also, Varsho is doing this with the lowest BABIP of his career (.233).

Magpie - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#466787) #

wanting JPR to outright release Bautista after the Robinzon Diaz trade.

Tee hee. I just reviewed the threads here when Bautista was acquired, and the one a few days later when Diaz turned out to be the guy named later. I'm happy to report that I... had no comment whatsoever. That was prudent!

I do remember being somewhat surprised by it all. The team really did need a backup third baseman. The Hall of Famer they had at the time also got injured an awful lot. But I didn't think of Bautista as a bench guy. I thought of him as not-so-great everyday player, and thought he was a strange guy to get for a backup role.

Magpie - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#466788) #

Varsho is doing this with the lowest BABIP of his career (.233).

Well, natch. He's not putting the ball in play. He's putting it out of play.

He's now hit a home run in every 10.28 ABs this season. The career leader, Mark McGwire, hit one every 10.61 ABs. That alone makes me want to pause, and tap the brakes a little.

But it really does look, to me as well, as if he's taken a big step forward. It might be a little early to know how big a step.

Glevin - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#466789) #

I remember lots of people, including Bauxites, wanting JPR to outright release Bautista after the Robinzon Diaz trade. Much like modern day Ty France."

Holding on to every mediocre player in case they suddenly become great seems like a less than ideal way to run a team.

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#466790) #

Arguably best comment on the Bautista acquisition (21 Aug 2008):

The offensive junkpile grows higher. This move adds crap to crap in the infield. Hector Luna v.2.1

Arguably best comment on giving up Diaz for Bautista (25 Aug 2008):

No disagreement that it was idiotic to give up Diaz (or anything more valuable than $50 and a collectible spoon) for a band-aid

dalimon5 - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#466791) #

If you could sign one of Varsho, Bichette or Bieber for a top of market long term deal (for the position and player type...so Adames+ deal for Bo, Burnes + type deal for Bieber etc), which one would you sign and why?

dalimon5 - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#466792) #

Assume they are all market value deals (no discount) and Varsho is a free agent this year, just to make it fair comparison. I'm interested to see where Beauxites put their fake GM budget.

Magpie - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#466793) #

Bautista's sudden - well, it was like an explosion - transformation into the best hitter in the league was so unexpected that there was a great debate around here over whether it would be best for Anthopoulos to cash in on his hot streak, before the bubble burst. I can remember writing, around May 2010, that there were a host of good reasons to believe Bautista really could be a genuine late bloomer (his extremely twisted career path, the multiple seasons lost to injury). What ensued was still completely unforeseeable.

I think a more plausible path for Varsho might resemble Edwin Encarnacion - who always quite clearly had enormous power but had never put his game together. Encarnacion's career high in HRs was 26 when he came here. Varsho's is 27. There's a symmetry there!

greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#466794) #

I'm not saying Varsho is about to turn into a Cal Raleigh-esque home run hitter. But Varsho's profile reminds me more of Raleigh (apart from the switch-hitting).

Career BA: Varsho .225 / Raleigh .225

Career BB rate: Varsho 8.5% / Raleigh 10.6%

Career K rate: Varsho 24.8% / Raleigh 28.5%

Raleigh's ISO jumped from .216 last year to .341 this year. Varsho's ISO jumped from .194 last year to .343 this year.

To me, there is more of a resemblance there than the Varsho/EE comp. EE was a power hitter who walked a lot and didn't strike out much.

Magpie - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#466795) #

If you could sign one of Varsho, Bichette or Bieber for a top of market long term deal

Just one? I want them all!

Right now, I think Bichette is the safest, the one most likely to keep doing what he's done since he came to the majors. There are more things to worry about with the other two. But even so... A fairly recent Cy Young winner? A guy currently hitting home runs more frequently than Mark McGwire? I don't know, man. Ask again in six weeks!

92-93 - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#466796) #

The best part about what Varsho is doing is that it was only 3.5 weeks ago that half the fanbase wanted to trade him because they were worried he struck out too much and would ruin the great thing the Jays had going. They spent hours talking about it on 590.

Magpie - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#466797) #

Raleigh is indeed more similar than Encarnacion as the general type of hitter Varsho may be turning into. I've probably already decided, on the basis of nothing whatsoever, that this is simply Cal Raleigh's career year. A little like Bautista in 2010 or George Bell in 1987. He'll revert to being the same very good player he's been for the last few years, and this one season will jump out at us when we review his career. Probably. If we all live that long.

I do note that Raleigh's been DHing much more this year than in past years. He's not hitting very well as the DH - but he's hitting much better when he catches.

uglyone - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#466798) #

Bo Bieber Varsho should be the offseason imo and easily affordable

Glevin - Friday, August 22 2025 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#466799) #

I think this is pretty clearly Raleigh's career year. For one, he's been extremely lucky hitting HR's. Look at his statcast and you can see that in most parks he'd have like 10 fewer HR's. Still great, but I'd never bet on another season like this one from him. With Varsho, just tough to know who he is because it's still a small sample size. A lot of his future value for me comes down to his arm. Can he get his arm strength back next year? The difference in that question is whether he can transition to RF when he declines in CF or needs to move to LF which is a huge difference in value.

John Northey - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#466800) #

I'm leaning Varsho-Bieber-Bo in that order for priority. Bo's defense had always been an issue and there is nowhere to move him if he declines at all. Varsho is such a wow on defense that he could drop a lot and still be solid in CF, before moving to a corner. Bieber has the injury concern. As others are saying, check again in a month or two. I'm expecting the Jays to do a 5 year with Varsho then to chase Bieber or another high end starter hard this winter. Bo is the luxury item, nice to have but I'd hesitate on anything beyond 3 years and he'll want 7+.

pooks137 - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 01:25 AM EDT (#466801) #

Tee hee. I just reviewed the threads here when Bautista was acquired, and the one a few days later when Diaz turned out to be the guy named later. I'm happy to report that I... had no comment whatsoever. That was prudent!

To be clear, because my phrasing was a little confusing, I meant that there were lots of fans calling for Bautista released over the calendar year between when he was acquired in Aug 2008 & when he finally broke out in Sept 2009.

That he sucked, that he had no ceiling, that he wasn't worth a roster spot. That the couple of million bucks he was making was too much for a bench player.

Not that I personally expected him to break out, but he seemed cromulent at the time to occupy a roster spot until something better came along (which turned out to be Jose Bautista!).

I recall being disappointed that Robinzon Diaz was the catcher going the other way in the 2008 deal. There were a few catching prospects in the system at the time vying to fulfull the next Jays "Catcher of the Future" prophecy that never seemed to end. I believe the other big one at the time was Curtis Thigpen. Who the Jays similarly seemed to simply give up on at some point, trade him to Oakland where his career ended very young IIRC.

I also recall being jealous of Curtis Thigpen as I brought a date to the Skydome at one point and she couldn't stop talking about how dreamy Curtis was on the Jumbotron.

Anyways, Robinzon Diaz was a prospect darling for a time at da Box. He supposedly had a cannon for an arm throwing out runners. And hit .300 one year at AA or A+ Dunedin. But I still recall Bauxites discussing that Diaz hit the "emptiest" .300 you'll ever see with zero walks & zero power.

IIRC, Diaz, like a young Danny Jansen, was also pretty snakebitten as a young catching prospect. I think he suffered a collapsed lung at one point.

Diaz ended up with 44 MLB games and is over 40 now. He appeared in one career April 2008 game for the Jays and for inexplicable reasons, appeared as the DH.

slitheringslider - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 03:05 AM EDT (#466802) #

After watching 1 Bieber start I am leaning Bieber, Varsho, Bo in that order. Bieber is something we don't have and he profiles as a pitcher that ages well since he doesn't rely on velocity to dominate. There's always injury risk with pitchers but I feel better about Bieber arm staying in tact than someone like DeGrom who throws 99. Varsho might be breaking out and because of his inconsistency and injury this year the jays might still be able to sign him to a deal that will net us surplus value over the span of his contract. Because of his defensive prowess it gives him a high floor. I would rather have Bo on the team than not but he scares me as a long term signing. Most of his value is tied to his hit tool and if his contact skills erodes he becomes an average hitter with low OBP and limited defensive value. ChatGPT gave me Michael Young and Jean Segura as high end comps that aged well, and became more or less 2-3 WAR players into their early 30s. Others that age less gracefully includes Nomar Garciaparra (5-7WAR prime who was washed up by 30), and Starlin Castro. Everyone on this list provided 0WAR by age 34. If we can get him for the Trevor Story or even the Dansby Swanson contract, I'd say lets do it because of his age but that's the ceiling of what I would be comfortable paying him.

scottt - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 06:47 AM EDT (#466803) #

Varsho's shoulder bothered him for years.
His bat speed was down last year to 73 mph and it's now higher than ever at 75.

ISLAND BOY - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#466804) #

If Bieber pitches strongly the rest of the season and into the playoffs, I'd say Atkins will make every effort to sign him. Bassitt's 21 million is coming off the books and the Jays really need a number 1 pitcher in the rotation. Atkins has also said that signing Bichette was a priority and I'd imagine they'd like to keep Varsho also.

If Scherzer decides to play another season, and it looks like he still has the stuff to do so, maybe the Jays won't be able to afford him, but he has been the best pitcher in the rotation for over a month now.

I'd also echo others in being very impressed by Bieber's debut. The amount of times he put pitches right on the edge of the strike zone was incredible, and his slider that would dart down and away out of the strike zone was a joy to watch. I'd say there's a few contenders wishing they'd taken a chance on him now.

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#466805) #

I've always worried less about Bichette's defense than anyone else, and perhaps less than I should. But I know - not think, I know - that defense isn't as important as it was, say 30 years ago, when Derek Jeter was a rookie.

uglyone - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#466806) #

Another reason not to worry about Bo's defense is that he's a better hitter than a guy like Santander, who has no defense at all, and most here were happy to give him a big long contract at age 30.

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#466807) #

We're getting to the point where if you ask "Who is the greatest shortstop in Jays franchise history" the answer isn't nearly as automatic as it's been for the last 30 years. Blasphemy, I know! Fernandez was clearly a much better defender, but Bichette just as clearly is a much better hitter. And happily, each was active at precisely the right time for their respective skill sets.

Glevin - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#466808) #

Another reason not to worry about Bo's defense is that he's a better hitter than a guy like Santander, who has no defense at all, and most here were happy to give him a big long contract at age 30."

At essentially $16M a year. If Bo wants to sign for a similar contract, I'd be great with it. And it's really not clear Bo is better hitter than Santander was before signing. Santander's last 3 WRC+ before FA were 127, 117, 120. Bo's last 3 seasons 124, 70, 124.

For me, there are four issues with Bo.
1) Defense. It matters a lot. He's not a SS now but not sure where down the spectrum he can move. Definitely loses a lot of value. This is not a guy having a down year, this is someone's whose body has changed.
2) As someone mentioned above, Bo's main skill is his hit tool, specifically hand-eye coordination in order to hit balls late and that's something that generally doesnt age well on its own especially with a a loss of athleticism. I expect a steep decline in a few years.
3) Bo is a good player. He was a great player in 20 and 21 but now he's an average SS. He's ranked 12th in SS WAR with more PAs than almost anyone. If he's willing to get paid like an average SS, fine.
4) Jays have bigger needs. Varsho and Bieber are both much harder to replace. If Jays move Gimenez/Clement to SS/2B and Barger to 3B and have Santander replace Barger in OF, they probably don't lose much offensively and are much better defensively. I'd much rather use the money to pay Framner Valdez or Bieber or another top of the rotation arm.

That said, I'd be happy if they bring him back. It just needs to make sense for the team.

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#466809) #

If Jays move Gimenez/Clement to SS/2B and Barger to 3B and have Santander replace Barger in OF, they probably don't lose much offensively and are much better defensively.

Not sure about the overall impact there. I'll certainly buy that Clement is a defensive upgrade at shortstop, and he'll take away a lot of... well, they'd all be singles. But there's a significant downgrade at third base, and possibly in the outfield as well. And the unmade plays at those positions, if not as numerous, could well be more costly.

Happily, while defense may matter a lot, it doesn't matter as much as it used to!

ISLAND BOY - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#466810) #

" Bichette just as clearly is a much better hitter. ( than Fernandez)"

Magpie, have you forgotten that Tony was a very good hitter in his own right? Here are the career stats:

Fernandez .288 avg. .347 OBP .399 slg. 746 OPS

Bichette .291 avg. .334 OBP .466 slg. 800 OPS

Not only are their stats comparable with Bo having a bit more power, but Fernandez played for 18 seasons, his last at age 38 and had over 2200 career hits. I know he didn't amass all these stats with the Jays, but Tony is still the greatest Blue Jay shortstop of all time in my eyes.

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#466811) #

Magpie, have you forgotten that Tony was a very good hitter in his own right?

I haven't, but please - let's try to have an equal playing field. Bichette is only 27 years old, and couldn't possibly achieve what Fernandez did in 18 seasons. To this point in their careers:

 G    PA    AB    R    H    2B  3B   HR  RBI   SB  CS   BB   SO  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS+    
735  3232  3023  427  881  185   8  109  425   60  21  180  632  .291  .334  .466  .800  119    
867  3600  3317  426  967  165  44   36  338  112  49  214  274  .292  .336  .400  .736  101

The pandemic, of course, is the main reason Fernandez played an extra 130 games. Despite that, even in 130 fewer games - more doubles and almost three times as many HRs? It probably deserves something more assertive than "a bit more power."

As hitters, I don't think they're remotely comparable. Fernandez was a good hitter for a shortstop. Bichette's been a good hitter, period. Fernandez would have just one more season (1990) as the Jays' shortstop, and it was not all that spectacular. He then began wandering around the league (with a 90 game cameo at short for the 1993 team.) The Book of Bo is largely unwritten.

scottt - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#466812) #

Bichette was a 6 WAR player at 23.
He's having an excellent year, yet he won't be worth more than 3 WAR.
It's not just the defense that has taken a hit, he runs like a catcher.

If you look at Judge, Soto, Othani and the like, they don't play at a key defensive position.

Good teams don't keep players out of position to feed their ego.

Being only 27 does not mean he won't slow down even more.

mathesond - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#466813) #

"Good teams don't keep players out of position to feed their ego."

Derek Jeter being a notable exception to that rule.

pooks137 - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#466814) #

I've always worried less about Bichette's defense than anyone else, and perhaps less than I should.

Personally, I too by the eye test think Bo's defense this year has been mostly fine & the rumours of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

Though I'm also in the camp that he's going to age terribly & want to see him walk.

That being said, I've noticed that Bo's fielding technique on balls to his right where he has to backhand the ball freaks me out. Even on routine GBs, there's something about his body position that doesn't look right, where he's approaching the ball at a strange angle with his leather being the thing between the ball & the eternity of left field behind him.

He's still making the plays, but he's not squaring up to the ball, likely again due to loss of lateral & first step quickness.

It's not just the defense that has taken a hit, he runs like a catcher.

There was a play last night where Marlins 2B Xavier Edwards had to range to his right to make a nice play on a Bichette GB.

It looked like it could've been a close play at 1st. But on the throw over, Bo wasn't even in the frame. And stopped running before Edwards' throw reached the target.

I don't think Bo was going to beat it running hard, but the nice play wasn't even close because Bo seemed to be Kirk/Ty France slow.

lexomatic - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#466815) #

Varsho's season reminds me of a bunch of Buxton seasons more than Big Dumper

uglyone - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#466816) #

Lauer starts Wednesday.

lexomatic - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#466817) #

The Bo - Fernandez debate is hampered by vastly differrent
eras.

Bo has played 2019-2025 ewuivalent for Fernandez is 83-89.
Bo is 9th in fWAR 19(Lindor 35.2)
- is 89th in BsR 0.3 (Turner 40.3)
- is 8th in Off R 78.3 (Turner 153.7)
- is 53 in Def R 6.3 (Lindor 104.6)
Of 9 SS w 3000 PA 5th in WRC+
Fewest GP 701 (swanson 923) 2019, 2020, 2024.
Lowest BB% 5.5 (Crawford 11.3)
6th k % (Seager 16.5 Adames 26.7)
7th ISOP .175 but confortably ahead of crawford at .118 amd partbof a group from .173 to .185 including Swanson, Bogaerts, Turner, Correa).

Fernandez 4th in fwar 22.4 (Ripken 44.9)
- is 14th in BsR 1.3 (Smith 28.8)
- is 10th in OffR 6.6 (ripken 140.4)
- is 5th in Def R 92.4 (smith 182.3)
Of 13 SS with 3000 PA
Tied 2nd fewest games 867 (ripken 1132) 1983+ 1984
5th wrc+ 101 (Ripken 125), 3rd 106, 7th 92, (Griffin 71)
4th isoP 109 (ripken 181, griffin 71)
2nd K% 7.6 (smith 5.1, Brooks 15.4)
9h BB% 5.9 (smith 11. R ramirez 4.2)

lexomatic - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#466818) #

Fernandez looks to come out a tiny bit better relative to his peers here, I think.

christaylor - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#466819) #

Bo's sprint speed is below average but what really stands out is his time from home to first. It's concerning, I wonder if he's still being careful with the calf and/or the injury has robbed him of being able to accelerate.

Either way he's the best SS of this year's free agent class, which means someone will pay.

uglyone - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#466820) #

Career Stats

Guerrero (26) 4085pa, 138wrc+, 3.3war650
Springer (35) 6223pa, 128wrc+, 4.0war650
Bichette (27) 3232pa, 120wrc+, 3.8war650
France (30) 3260pa, 111wrc+, 1.6war650
Alejandro (26) 1968pa, 110wrc+, 4.5war650
Schneider (26) 755pa, 109wrc+, 2.9war650
Santander (30) 3324pa, 108wrc+, 1.6war650
Lukes (30) 453pa, 107wrc+, 2.7war650
Gimenez (26) 2415pa, 100wrc+, 4.2war650
Varsho (28) 2276pa, 99wrc+, 3.7war650
Barger (25) 620pa, 98wrc+, 1.6war650
Heineman (34) 438pa, 92wrc+, 5.5war650
Clement (29) 1296pa, 86wrc+, 2.4war650
Straw (31) 2236pa, 80wrc+, 2.1war650

3yr Stats

Guerrero (26) 1924pa, .313babip, 143wrc+, 3.5war650
Heineman (34) 202pa, .362babip, 131wrc+, 9.0war650
Santander (30) 1530pa, .256babip, 114wrc+, 2.0war650
Bichette (27) 1505pa, .326babip, 112wrc+, 3.1war650
Springer (35) 1731pa, .281babip, 112wrc+, 2.2war650
Schneider (26) 755pa, .285babip, 109wrc+, 2.9war650
Lukes (30) 453pa, .272babip, 107wrc+, 2.7war650
Alejandro (26) 1213pa, .282babip, .101wrc+, 4.6war650
France (30) 1641pa, .291babip, 100wrc+, 0.5war650
Clement (29) 984pa, .287babip, 98wrc+, 3.4war650
Barger (25) 620pa, .280babip, 98wrc+, 1.6war650
Varsho (28) 1254pa, .256babip, 97wrc+, 3.5war650
Gimenez (26) 1516pa, .280babip, 87wrc+, 3.2war650
Straw (31) 778pa, .297babip, 75wrc+, 1.4war650

Fangraphs Projections

Guerrero (26) 147wrc+, 4.2war650
Bichette (27) 118wrc+, 3.9war659
Springer (35) 118wrc+, 2.6war650
Alejandro (26) 115wrc+, 5.9war650
Santander (30) 110wrc+, 1.8war650
Barger (25) 106wrc+, 3.0war650
Lukes (30) 106wrc+, 2.2war650
Schneider (26) 106wrc+, 2.1war650
Varsho (28) 104wrc+, 3.2war650
France (30) 103wrc+, 1.3war650
Gimenez (26) 96wrc+, 3.6war650
Clement (29) 94wrc+, 2.0war650
Heineman (34) 92wrc+, 3.8war650
Straw (31) 75wrc+, 1.8war650

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#466821) #

The Bo - Fernandez debate

The fact that Bichette has been able to make it a debate is pretty much my point!

I'm also the heretic who's suggested that the best defensive shortstop in franchise history was Alex Gonzalez (the pretty one.) It's not a hill I would die on. I just like to cause trouble sometimes.

scottt - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#466822) #

Ali Sanchez is now with the Mets.

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#466823) #

Have catcher’s mitt. Will travel.

uglyone - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#466824) #

Yanks getting humiliated now.

Nigel - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#466825) #

In my mind’s eye I picture Alex Gonzalez’s defense as outstanding when he first came up and then a few years later as mediocre to bad but that may just have followed my trajectory of hope to disappointment in his offence.

greenfrog - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#466827) #

Berrios showing that he wants to stay in the rotation.

electric carrot - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#466828) #

why straw and not ned flanders?

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#466829) #

And there’s your answer

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#466830) #

Just when I was thinking that it might make sense for Varsho to move to left field when Straw enters for defense - Varsho is throwing more like a left fielder these days - the fact that it was Straw in left field saves a run in what has turned into a one-run game.

Hodgie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#466831) #

Maybe throwing nothing but knuckle curves when you can also throw 98 isn’t the best plan?

electric carrot - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#466832) #

"And there’s your answer"

I guess so. I thought Bichette was the difference maker on that play but I guess having stronger fielder makes some sense. Still, I think I would have went for the .831 OPS hitter rather than sub 700 OPS with the bases loaded in a close game.

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#466833) #

Bichette was the difference maker on that play

It was indeed an outstanding relay, but Straw also gets to the ball in the corner a fair bit quicker than Lukes or Schneider.

And he got it done with the bat. On his shoulder!

Nigel - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#466834) #

Double plays on offence and bad bullpens make for hard watching:(.

greenfrog - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#466835) #

Hoffman really needs to stop walking the leadoff hitter when he enters the game.

Also, the Blue Jays probably would have won in the 10th if the home plate ump hadn't blocked a Miami wild pitch with his foot with Heineman on third base and the Blue Jays up 5-4 with two out in the top half of the inning.

Anyway, water under the bridge. A win in the 12th inning is better than no win at all. Let's win this thing now.

Nigel - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#466836) #

Varland gives me Billy Koch vibes (for good and for bad).

mathesond - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#466837) #

Did that Bichette play to get the lead runner look as good as it sounded on the radio?

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#466838) #

Four hits and two great defensive plays. Take a bow, Bo.

Glevin - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#466839) #

Weird win but I'll take it. Hoffman walking leadoff hitters is bad but at least he didn't do the meltdown stuff he did a couple of months ago. Varland also struggling recently.

BlueJayWay - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#466840) #

Had 'em all the way

greenfrog - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#466841) #

Yep, great play by Bichette. He made a very quick instinctive throw to second so that Gimenez could tag out Lopez, who was scrambling back to the bag. The play might have helped the Blue Jays and their depleted bullpen secure a needed win before this game dragged out any longer.

Nigel - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#466842) #

Huge win. Huge day for Bichette and Springer. Clement really looks like he needs a day or two. Varland sure seems to give up hard contact for the quality of stuff.

John Northey - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#466843) #

A win is a win, but boy is the pen drained at this point. Little should just stay away from the park tomorrow - the man needs a day off. Need 8 from Gausman followed by a 9th by Yariel Rodríguez as everyone else is tired.

John Northey - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#466844) #

Anyone know what happened at the Yankee game? Did the Yankees just have no one healthy in the pen for today or something? They left Blackburn in for 2 1/3 shutout innings, then sent him out for the 9th and left him out there to be pounded bad (7 runs in that one inning). Very odd, doesn't say much about the Yankee manager leaving a guy out there to be pounded like that unless the pen was drained.

uglyone - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#466845) #

Bo was already one of the hottest hitters in baseball - 175wrc+ over his last 40gms - before his big day today.

After a super slow start this year it looks like he's most likely on his way to having the best offensive year of his carser.

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#466846) #

Did the Yankees just have no one healthy in the pen for today or something?

Pretty sure Boone had options. Doval, Weaver, and de los Santos last worked on Thursday. Williams and Bednar each worked an inning yesterday. Blackburn is normally a starting pitcher, of course, and he'd thrown 36 pitches through 2.1 coming into that ninth inning.

And 71 when it was over. Welcome to the Bronx.

92-93 - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#466847) #

Quality D from Bo today. He gets the job done, most of the time. I was surprised that he barely even turned for 2nd on his game-winning, gap single.

If the Jays go 16-16 the rest of the way, Boston would need to go 22-10 to win the division, and NY would need to go 24-9. Keep shaving days odd the calendar with this lead, boys.

Magpie - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#466848) #

All this is starting to look a little like the famous Boston Massacre of 1978. The Yankees, 14 games back of the lead in late July, fired Billy Martin (for the first time) and got really, really hot. By early September, they were just four games back of the first place Red Sox. They went into Fenway for four games and they didn't just sweep - they destroyed. The scores were 15-3, 12-2, 7-0, and 7-4.

This time - not quite so lopsided. And they're squabbling over second place. As you can imagine, the Sons of Sam are really enjoying themselves, but the very last post reads:

I'm really getting sick of the f*ck*ng Blue Jays winning every time we do.

Tough. And now a little entertainment at Yankees Reddit is in order. After all, as Gore Vidal once remarked:

It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.

scottt - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#466849) #

Boston started Crochet, so the Yankees probably planned to save the pen if the game got out of hand and Warren only lasted 4 innings.

Marc Hulet - Saturday, August 23 2025 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#466850) #

In fairness to Hoffman, the first pitch he threw was a strike. It was called a ball.

Berrios isn't bad against bottom-10 offenses... he's be better off finishing his career in the AL or NL Central. But I don't see any scenario where he doesn't action his player options after 2026.

The Yankees were already out of the game 5-1 when the 9th started so when they allowed another couple runs, Boone just let Blackburn wear it. They didn't look good at all... and another horrible throw by Volpe that was about 15 feet above the first baseman.

SK in NJ - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#466851) #

Clement has a 70 wRC+ in his last 219 PA, which includes a 72 wRC+ against LHP during that span. On the season he has a 63 wRC+ against RHP so there hasn't been much progress there as the season has progressed. Clearly the Jays think the defense means more than the bat at this point, and it's easier to rationalize decisions when you're first place, but they really should consider starting Davis Schneider against RHP a little bit more (in LF, with Barger at 3B and Lukes in RF) and trying to maximize Clement's performance with a bit more rest for him.

Glevin - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#466852) #

I really do find the going to Straw as first pinch hitter over Schneider as pretty bizzare. If it were for a bunt, fine, but i'd rather have Schneider up in every other scenario but the manager clearly doesn't.

Magpie - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#466853) #

If they had been losing it probably would have been Schneider. Straw is coming in for defense, with the team ahead. When you only have a four man bench…

scottt - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#466854) #

First team in modern era to blow a lead in the 9th, 10th and 11th and still win the game.

Now just need 8 innings from Gausman.

Glevin - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#466855) #

If they had been losing it probably would have been Schneider. Straw is coming in for defense, with the team ahead. When you only have a four man bench…"

It's LF with a two run lead. If it were CF, sure. Straw is an excellent defender but the difference between Straw and Schneider in LF is less IMO than the difference in their offensive abilities especially in a close game where you want the extra runs.

pooks137 - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#466856) #

Agree that PH Straw for Lukes, with the bases loaded against the LHP Gibson in the 6th after Varsho struck out & France was IBB, was very odd.

It worked out with Straw working a walk. And later contributing to the win defensively by quickly digging out that double in the LF corner to hit the cutoff man in Bichette to cut down a Marlin at the plate to save Louis Varland (and the game). Sometimes the wrong moves still work out.

To give credit to Bichette as well, I was shocked in the 4th when he went 1st to third on Varsho's FB single to the CF Marsee. When I saw that Jakob Marsee couldn't catch it but came up throwing, I was worried Bo was too conservative in tagging up at 1B & Marsee was trying to get the force at 2B.

Imagine my shock when the feed finally cut to Bichette decelerating into 3rd.

uglyone - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#466857) #

Straw's on a bit of a heater at the moment tbh.

Also, Barger and Gimenez are much colder than Clement at the moment.

Glevin - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#466858) #

Vlad still out of lineup. He was available for pinch hit duty yesterday so hopefully he was close. Better to play it safe than to rush him back for a long-term injury but someone needs to tell him not to do anymore splits.

hypobole - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#466859) #

Guessing Lauer is first out of the pen today. Probably good for 30 pitches? Last update was he will start Wednesday vs the Twins.

uglyone - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#466860) #

I'm guessing Vlad would have been in yesterday or even friday if we were playing a top team.

92-93 - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#466861) #

Yep, and he’d likely be in today if they didn’t have a 5 game lead. Today is day 6 though of playing short-handed, so you hope to see him pinch hit and then start Monday or Tuesday for it to have been worth not just giving him 10 days off.

hypobole - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#466863) #

Know there are some Expos fans here. FG Sunday notes quiz:

Three pitchers in Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals history have won 100 or more games with the two-city franchise. Who are they? (A hint: Two of them played exclusively with the franchise, while another had more career wins with a team other than the Expos/Nationals.)

Magpie - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#466864) #

Rogers, Strasburg,Max?

Glevin - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#466865) #

Bo is on fire.

hypobole - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#466866) #

yes, yes, no.

John Northey - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#466867) #

Paxton Schultz called up, Mason Fluharty down. Makes a lot of sense for now. Yeah, it is nice to have multiple LH pitchers in the pen, but is it really critical? No. Having guys who can pitch is critical.

Magpie - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#466868) #

El Presidente?

hypobole - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#466869) #

El Presidente?

Si.

Glevin - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#466870) #

Ernie's moustache makes him look like an actor from like 1935. William Powell or Errol Flynn vibes.

Magpie - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#466871) #

Now that I can look it up without feeling like I'm cheating, I'm a little surprised that Martinez won more games for the Orioles. I knew he was there a long time, just didn't think he was all that good until he got to Montreal.

Geez, 23 seasons without ever striking out a hitter. Well, not very many anyway.

uglyone - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#466872) #

Team is sleeping.

BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#466873) #

I don't like Sundays

Another one of these afternoon road getaway games that looks lethargic.
Granted their lineups shorthanded and they're facing Eury Perez

uglyone - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#466874) #

Grinding at bat by Heineman last inning was the first sign of grit on the day, then two very nice at bats by Bo and France to get him out of the game and now we have a game.

BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#466875) #

BOOM

scottt - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#466876) #

Varsho was due.

92-93 - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#466877) #

Go Yankees? *shudders*

uglyone - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#466878) #

at least the astros and tigers lose too.

and i get to root against the friggin red sox again so that's good.

BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#466879) #

motion to ban Sundays from the calendar

John Northey - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#466880) #

Well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad. I kind of wrote today off after yesterday's 'use everything you got' win. Needed Gausman to be on and he wasn't. 4 runs is not an acceptable game from a starter who should be an ace vs a bottom feeder team. Scoring just 3 runs also isn't acceptable even with Vlad not there for all but 1 PA, no Kirk, and no Barger. The more you look at it the more it really looks like this was a written off game before it began.

85bluejay - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#466881) #

The Jays are in a 9 game set against the also rans - Pittsburgh, Miami and Minnesota and so far they are not making hay with a meh 3-3 record.

scottt - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#466882) #

It's on the road.
The only thing that bothers me is the use of Lauer. He's the guy who was winning games without run support. Now, is he in the pen or is it a 6-man rotation?

92-93 - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#466883) #

It's clearly a 6-man rotation with rotating 7th relievers, regardless of what they call it.

Magpie - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#466884) #

It's on the road.

And Paul Skenes and Eury Perez were on the schedule.

Lauer is starting Minnesota on Wednesday, but Lauer most definitely is not the guy who wins without run support. Lauer's actually been the best supported of the four pitchers with the most starts. The team has scored 79 runs in his 8 wins, and at least 6 runs every time. They average 6.5 when he pitches, best on the team.

Chris Bassitt is the one who really does have some Wins with little run support. Bassitt has won three times with just 3 runs to work with (they've scored 73 runs in his 11 Wins); Gausman won once with just two (they've scored 66 runs in his 8 wins, and 34 of those runs came in just two games.

hypobole - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#466885) #

Miami is not good, but have only been swept 3 times all season. Toronto is good and have been swept 4 times this season.

Pittsburgh is not good, but have won 39 home games. Astros have won 38 home games, Yankees 37.

uglyone - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#466886) #

Magpie i was trying to break down the rotation by wins vs era or something, instead of looking just at run support...but it got kinda complicated.

I got far enough to realize that the starters were all pretty close in terms of win% in the sub-4era, 4-6, and 6+ categories before i gave up cuz i'm lazy...

Magpie - Sunday, August 24 2025 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#466887) #

it got kinda complicated.

Doesn't it always?

The thing about the raw Run Support is the impact a single game - like scoring 20 runs against the Rockies - can have on the overall average. I was looking at this very subject in the Pittsburgh thread, and I just created three different levels of Run Support (which I cleverly labelled Insufficient, Adequate, and Plenty) and noted how often that level had been provided for each starter. But whichever way you look at it, Bassitt and Gausman are the guys Making Do With Less.

scottt - Monday, August 25 2025 @ 06:03 AM EDT (#466890) #

And then we get Scherzer against Joe Ryan.

Mike Green - Monday, August 25 2025 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#466897) #

I wouldn't look at game result in determining whether a starting pitcher had been effective with adequate or poor run support, because of the important influence of run support after the pitcher leaves the game and bullpen support.

So, take Eric Lauer. He joined the rotation on June 11. Since that time, the team has gone 11-2 in his starts. In the two losses, the club scored 1 run and 2 runs. In the first game, he went 4 innings and allowed 2 runs. In the second game, he went 5 innings and allowed 2 runs and left with the game tied. That's perfectly good performance with poor run support. When given 4 or 5 runs of support, the team has won all 3 games but he has allowed 8 runs in 11.2 innings. That's not great. And he's been awesome when the team gives him 6 runs or more of support, sometimes he has held the opposition at bay while the club had trouble scoring until late- like the June 18 game against the D-Backs where the Jays led 2-0 after 5 innings and exploded for 6 runs afterwards or the June 24 game against the Guardians where the Jays led 4-0 after 5 innings or the July 24 game against the Tigers where the Jays trailed 1-0 after 5 innings and exploded for 11 runs in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings with Lauer still in the game. Lauer hasn't yet taken the Jays right out of the game during his appearances, in part because the club has often not sent him out longer but also because he has simply pitched well overall.

Gausman has gone deeper into games, and his record is definitely mixed. When the club has given him 3 runs of support, it has gone 1-5. Some of that is on Gausman and some of it is not on him. So on May 3, he threw 6 shutout innings and yet the club lost 5-3. On May 15, he went 5.2 innings and left trailing 6-2 with 3 homers doing the damage, and they lost 8-3. On July 6, he went 5.2 innings and allowed 2 runs leaving the game tied. Davis Schneider singled in the winning run in the sixth and the bullpen made it stand up. The club's overall record when he has pitched is 14-12, and that is a bit unfair to him.

Bassitt has had some games where he has shut the other club down entirely and some where he has singlehandedly put the club in a hole. For instance on June 28, he went 2.2 innings and allowed 9 runs, and the Blue Jays trailed 9-1 after 3 innings. They didn't score another run in the game, but that had essentially nothing to do with the outcome. The club's overall record when he pitches is 15-12 which (in my view) is a fair indication of how he has pitched.

Jose Berrios is on the other side of the equation. The club has given him 5.84 runs of support and he has gone 18-9. As you might expect, with average run support, the club would likely have gone about 15-12 in his starts. They won games 11-9, 9-8 and 8-6 among his starts (and lost one 11-9). When he has had a bad outing, the offence has often come to his rescue.

uglyone - Monday, August 25 2025 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#466901) #

But even that's not so clearcut, as I was trying to suss out before.

For example, Berrios in 14gms has posted a 3.00era or lower, and is 7-0 in those games. Could he have had more losses there, sure, but he could also have had more wins.

Then he has 5gms between a 3.00era and a 5.06era, and is 1-1 in those starts, exactly where you'd expect.

Then he has 8gms over a 5.06era, and is 1-4 in those 8gms, and the 1 win came in the best of those games when he gave up 4 runs in 5.2ip for a 6.35era. I guess maybe this is where the run support comes in the most? Should he be closer to 0-8 in these games? maybe.

Sub-4 ERAs

Lauer 9gms, 6-0
Berrios 15gms, 7-0
Bassitt 13gms, 7-1
Gausman 14gms, 7-1
Scherzer 6gms, 3-2

Scherzer a bit unlucky here looks like.

4.00-6.00 ERA

Scherzer 3gms, 1-0
Bassitt 6gms, 2-1
Berrios 4gms, 1-1
Gausman 5gms, 1-2
Lauer 2gms, 0-1

all with 1gm of .500 which is kinda expected i think.

6.00+ ERA

Scherzer 2gms, 0-0
Bassitt 7gms, 2-5
Berrios 8gms, 1-4
Lauer 3gms, 0-1
Gausman 7gms, 0-7

Gaus has been fully punished for his bad starts, while the others have all gotten away with theirs to a similar degree I think.

lexomatic - Monday, August 25 2025 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#466902) #

Just to be a jerk, how did things compare to team records in the 3 era buckets, Ugly? IP by bucket? It suggests to me that Berrios might've been pulled pretty early in a few. Bassit & Gausman at least pitched enough to get a decision.

uglyone - Monday, August 25 2025 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#466905) #

Yeah things get complicated.

But Berrios has only failed to go 5ip 5 times this year and went 0-3 (only once less than 4ip and lost that one).

Bassitt's 0-4 in his 4 sub-5ip starts, but two of those were sub-3ip.

Gausman's 0-2 in 3 of them.

Scherzer's 0-0 in 2 of them.

Lauer has failed to go 5ip in 6 starts but has only been dinged for losses in them twice.

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