One day I'd love to go to Pittsburgh for an away series — it is shockingly close! — but these days crossing the border is a non-starter.

Beautiful ballpark, though.

I was just checking Google Maps to see where the ball park was - Three Rivers was located at the very junction where the two rivers turned into the third one. PNC is a few hundred meters to the east on the north bank of the Allegheny. But what caught my attention were the bridges across the river. The one right by PNC Park is the Roberto Clemente Bridge, naturally. And the next one, upriver (or downriver, like I should know) is the Andy Warhol Bridge.

Andy Warhol?

But of course, a famous native son. Looks a scream, hang him on my wall.

Pittsburgh is an underrated city. Very nice to visit.

Now I'm going to have this stuck in my head all day:

Andy walking, Andy tired
Andy take a little snooze

This series is going to be tougher than the teams records indicate. My recipe for success: Our starters keep it close and the hitters get their starters pitch counts up to make it a battle of the bullpens.

Skenes is great, but he hasn't gone more than 6 innings in his last 11 starts. Keller is more solid than good and Ashcraft is having a fine rookie season, but just got moved to the rotation and threw a season high 61 pitches his last time out.

Our bullpen has been disappointing since the deadline with a 5.19 ERA, but the Pirates have an MLB worst 7.32.

Pirates hitting has improved a bit. 93 wRC+ since the deadline vs 78 wRC+ prior, but nowhere near what a more or less healthy Jays have.

The Pirates have suffered from poor management and/or cheap ownership for a long times. In fact, they've only finished above .500 4 times in the last 33 years! 2018 was the last time and then there was a brief 3 year burst of sunshine from 2013 to 2015 where the Pirates were actually pretty good.

In 2015 they won 98 games but then the next year they slumped to 78 wins. Curious as to what triggered the precipitous drop, I looked up team stats. On the batting side, most of the position players stayed the same and 3 players fell in WAR amounts. C Francisco Cervelli went from 3.5 to 1.6 WAR, Jung Ho Kang 4..1 to 2.1 but the worst was Andrew McCutchen who fell off a cliff 4.9 to -0.4.

On the pitching side, Gerrit Cole was the star with a 3.8 WAR in 2015 but only pitched in 21 games in 2016, dropping to 1.5 WAR. The rotation in 2015 also featured 3 past or future Blue Jays in AJ Burnett, Francisco Liriano and JA Happ who all had 2.5/2.6 WAR in 2015. AJ Burnett retired after the season at age 38 and JA Happ signed with Toronto and in 2016 had a 20-4 W/L record and 4.9 WAR. ( Remember that?). Liriano pitched in 21 games for the 2016 Pirates accumulating -0.5 WAR before being traded to the Jays along with Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez for Drew Hutcheson. He did better with Toronto with a 0.7 WAR in 11 games. The next year he was traded to Houston for one Teoscar Hernandez.

In conclusion, the 2016 Pirates suffered most from their pitching staff losing value, with only rookie Jameson Taillon, 2.4 WAR, picking up some of the slack and also from Andrew McCutchen turning into a pumpkin. A cautionary tale of how a very good team can turn bad from one year to the next.

Thanks for the numbers for the rotation. Helps emphasize how Berrios is basically Jack Morris - a guy who gets tons of support and wins a lot of games thanks to that. In the past Berrios (and Bassitt for that matter) would be viewed as a guy who 'knows how to win'. Funny thing is I looked at the win leader board (hadn't done that in awhile) and saw Brandon Pfaadt has 12 wins for Arizona (tied for 4th most in the majors) despite a 5.08 ERA and 0.8 fWAR. Quinn Priester in Milwaukee is 11-2 despite 0.9 fWAR, a slightly better record than Tarik Skubal has, and of course Paul Skenes has a losing record despite the highest fWAR in the NL, and the lowest ERA in MLB.

FYI: For the 2000's there are 10 guys with 200+ wins. For 1975-1999 there were ... 10 guys. This shocked me, to be honest. I was certain there would be a LOT more for 75-99 (Morris to Hough). What about 1950-1974? 13 guys. Given the reduced emphasis on wins and guys going deep enough to get them I was certain today's crew would be half of the past. 1925-1949? Just 9 (!) with 1 300 game winner (Lefty Grove). Of course, the further back you go the fewer teams you get with 4 man rotations or less sometimes. But in theory the shorter rotations should help the 'aces' get to 200+. 1900-1924? 11 guys (4 300 game winners, with Walter Johnson at an insane 377). Have to get to 1875-1899 to finally get what I expected - 17 guys with 200+ wins (5 with 300+). Wonder what 2025-2049 will produce? Btw, if I remove 2025 it doesn't change 2000-2025's figures - still 10 guys. FYI: #11 would've been Roy Halladay (194 wins for him this century - a career ended too soon, a life ended too soon).

Kind of fun looking at a stat that used to be the be-all-end-all of pitching that now is seen as a freak show stat by many. I know I rarely think about it, until I see weirdness like Berrios having a better W-L than Skenes.

Rogers decided not to hire a President for the Maple leafs and now apparently are not hiring a President for the Raptors - I wonder what that portends for Mark Shapiro and his expiring contract.

I think the other takeaway would be Chris Bassitt is better than anyone thinks.

Rogers might be looking at making Shapiro president of all 3 - Raptors, Leafs, and Jays. Given how he has rebuilt the arena and cleaned up a lot of stuff at all levels of the Jays system they might want him to do the same for the others. I figure a guy who has been a president of an MLB club for years would want a new challenge and that would be it. Few other MLB clubs could potentially offer that kind of challenge.

If that, or something like it, is offered then expect Atkins to get a bigger role here or for someone else to be hires as vice-president to be a face for the Jays publicly as Atkins sucks at that role based on how the media has reacted to him over the years.

Fun stat of the day - Roki Sasaki who we all desperately wanted in the off-season, has produced 0.3 bWAR, -0.2 fWAR for the Dodgers so far (8 starts, 34 1/3 IP, 89 ERA+). Myles Straw, who the Jays took to gain more international bonus cash so they might be able to sign Sasaki, has been worth 2.0 bWAR, 1.3 fWAR so far. Go figure. Of course, I'd trade Straw for Sasaki in a second, but in 2025 there isn't much question which has been more valuable, not to mention the many guys the Jays signed as IFA who they otherwise couldn't have signed.

Yes, baseball is a funny game at times.

Berrios is basically Jack Morris - a guy who gets tons of support and wins a lot of games thanks to that.

I don't think that's true at all, with respect to either Berrios or Morris. Berrios actually reminds me more of Mark Buehrle more than anyone else. He always takes the ball, and he does everything possible to support his game - he holds baserunners, he fields his position...

Morris showed up every day - from age 24 when he came up and stayed, until age 39, 23+ starts a year, 0 relief appearances, 105 ERA+ 15.6 wins, 11.3 losses, 32.1 games started, 229 1/2 IP, 7.1 IP per game which was very solid for the era. Berrios age 23-31, skipping his rookie season, you get 28.3 starts a year (2020 messes things up), 11.7 wins a year, 165.9 IP. 109 ERA+. Solid for the era especially considering freak show 2020. Leads league in starts twice (2021 and this year), which Morris also did twice (1990 and 1991). Morris ERA+ peaked at 133, Berrios 123. Both viewed as reliable work horses. Berrios though has had no luck in the playoffs overall (0-2 3.60 ERA, 4 games 15 IP) vs Morris 7-4 3.80 over 13 starts 92 IP with the one legendary start 10 IP in a game 7 that should've been a loss if Lonnie Smith hadn't forgot to look at his 3B coach.

I knew Bob Nutting was the Pirates owner because I've read more than a few times of his cheapness and incompetence. Yes he's somewhat hamstrung by the Pirates small market size, but Pittsburgh isn't the smallest. That would be Milwaukee.

I have no idea who owns the Brewers, because they seem to stay out of the spotlight and have hired smart people to run their team.

I have been to the park in Pittsburgh, it is very nice. Also there is an Andy Warhol museum in Pittsburgh that I also visited. Also very nice (but small).

"I have been to the park in Pittsburgh"

Same! A couple of times. And I agree, it's a lovely spot to catch a ballgame.

Jays have 12 position players with at least 1.0 bWAR. Cubs and Red Sox (10 each) are only others in double digits.

"Pittsburgh is an underrated city. ". Of course, this is partly because of its former reputation as a steel (and therefore grimy) city.

Best summed up by the nursery rhyme:

Mary had a little lamb
Its fleece was white as snow
Then she took it to Pittsburgh
And now look at the damn thing!

Apologies, John, if I was a little brusque back there. I can get my shorts in an impressive knot if I get even the faintest whiff that someone is being dismissed as a mere inning-eater. My nostrils are doubtless over sensitive on this matter.

Here's the thing. A very, very long time ago, someone (on this very site!) put forward the notion that Mariano Rivera was the greatest pitcher who ever lived. Why? Because he was the hardest to score runs against. Makes sense, no?

Well, no. Obviously. But why is this wrong? It's wrong because of the assumption that statement is based on, the assumption that the pitcher's job is to keep the other team from scoring. Because that's not what the pitcher's job is, not at all. It's part of the job, it's one of the ways he does the job, and it's an excellent indicator of who will be good at the job. But it's not the job.

The pitcher's job is not to strike out lots of hitters, or post an impressive ERA+ and a shiny FIP measure. The pitcher has the exact same job as the backup second baseman - help the team win. That's it! And the fellow who gives up 3.4 runs per nine over 250 innings - let's call him Roy Halladay - helps his team win more games than the fellow giving up 2.2 over 75 innings (we'll call him Mariano Rivera.) There are more than 1400 innings to get through every season. Quantity matters, and it matters a great deal. (Even WAR understands that, which is how Doc accumulated more in his 12 effective seasons than Rivera did in his 17.)

If anyone likes, we'll say Rivera was the better pitcher. But Halladay was the better player.

The Jays lack star power (even Vlad is only ~20th overall in bWAR) but have incredible depth. I think you could have an interesting stat for depth vs. star power - the ratio of WAR for the top four players on the team vs the WAR of the rest of the roster combined. These Jays might not rank super high on that because of the big negative values put up by Santander and Francis, but you could probably fiddle with the formula to make it more reflective of the best version of the team (cut out the below-replacement players, limit the total number of players considered, idk).

Of our current position players, Ernie's 99 wRC+ is 11th highest in a Jays uniform. On the Pirates he would be tied with Nick Gonzales as the team leader. They haven't had a single player hit league average in a Pirates uniform.

An excellent defence of the "innings eater" - I couldn't agree more! I'll add that the (unusual) ability to take the ball (relatively injury free) time after time, start after start, and give you average to slightly above average innings is also criminally underappreciated when it comes to regular season success. Having said all of that though, Buerhle was a materially better pitcher than Berrios has been:)

For what it's worth, the argument that Mariano Rivera is the greatest pitcher ever (and I don't subscribe to it) would rely heavily on post-season performance. There is a very good argument that he was the greatest post-season pitcher ever. As post-season performance was, for him at least given the strength of the Yankees during his career, more important than regular season performance. WAR completely ignores post-season performance and that is a significant flaw, particularly for relief pitchers where leverage is part of the issue.

Magpie - no worries, I just took it as a challenge :) Berrios makes me think of Morris in the 'he gives you a solid start every time, but never is spectacular, never really a Cy contender, just a solid guy'. There is a TON of value in that. Every team needs at least 1 or 2 starters like that and Berrios has been that for years and probably will continue that. You can count on 30+ starts from him every year and around 6 innings per start - again, rare nowadays.

The Dodgers loaded up on guys who get hurt a lot due to putting 110% in every pitch thus getting low ERA's and high K totals, but also low IP totals. Their staff, if healthy (massive if) is easily the best there is. The Jays, on the other hand, have a staff of solid guys who give you 5-7 IP most games, but rarely shutouts or 10+ K games, and it is rare the Jays need that. Now, come the playoffs, when there is more rest available having those guys like the Dodgers are buried in becomes more useful as you are in a sprint, not a marathon. That is the challenge for 2026 and beyond for the Jays, they now have a solid team but is it a playoff team or a regular season team? Right now it appears to be a regular season one. Having Berrios as part of it going forward is useful as then you can risk guys like Bieber on the staff who might go down knowing you have that steady arm in the middle. Buehrle was a lot like Berrios - steady, eats tons of innings, but was a step up with his 117 ERA+ and 5 All-Star appearances. His 4.11 ERA in the postseason suggests his stuff didn't play as well then as the regular season (2-1 record in 6 games, 4 starts, Jays didn't use him in 2015, his final ML season).

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the only Dodger with 20+ starts, Jays have 3 with 24+. Dodgers have 3 starters with 130+ ERA+'s, Jays just 1 in Lauer (153!). Come playoffs that power in the Dodgers should do them well, the Jays might struggle with tons of 'solid but not spectacular', but we'll see.

There is a very good argument that [Rivera] was the greatest post-season pitcher ever.

There is indeed. Although you certainly know that my knee-jerk response will be to point out that Christy Mathewson once pitched three complete game shutouts in a World Series, and I guarantee no one's breaking that record.

Oh, it was a very long time ago and only one level of post-season play. Matty did have a 0.97 ERA in his 101.2 post-season innings (there were plenty of Unearned runs, especially in 1912, as I may have discussed in some detail.)

The guy who may need some consideration in this matter is Madison Bumgarner, who can at least be reasonably be described as the greatest World Series pitcher of all time.

Buerhle was a materially better pitcher than Berrios has been

Yeah, even the extra things that Berrios does well - Buehrle did even better! No one was tougher to run against. No one fielded the position better.

For star power, the Jays are really lacking. Tops in fWAR is Vlad at 4.0 which is just tied for 56th in Jays history among hitters (Teoscar 2021, Springer 22, Hill 09, Wells 04, EE 14 are other batter seasons at 4.0). Kirk is 95th, Bo 121, Springer 142, Clement 147. That is 5 hitters with 2.6+ fWAR, in the Jays top 150 all-time with over a month to go. That is a lot of damn solid guys. You can add in one more with 2+ - Heineman 168th (2.4). So 6 hitters worth 2+ fWAR. 2015 had 6, 2016 7, 2022 8, 2023 5, 1993 6, 1992 7, 1989 6, 1985 7. The 2 'coulda/woulda/shoulda' years 1987 6, 2021 5. So 5-7 2+ fWAR guys seems to be the normal for a Jay contender to have. With a month+ to go we are at 7 (Barger at 2.0), with Varsho at 1.6 likely to crack 2, Schneider might as well (at 1.3 in 55 games and likely to play more with Loperfido demoted). Also over 1 is Lukes (1.3), Straw (1.3), Gimenez (1.1), with Loperfido closing in on 1 (0.7) before his demotion. France is next at 0.3 (would be shocked if he got enough playing time to grow that over 0.5).

For pitching only Gausman is over 2 fWAR, Lauer & Bassitt at 1.5 and 1.6 respectively. 1+ for Little and Berrios. I suspect once all the numbers are in this will be the most extreme 'count on the hitters' Jay playoff team ever.

No one fielded the position better.

Greg Maddux?

Kind of ironic that Rivera was so amazing in the post season but had one of the worst WS appearances in terms of impact ever - game 7 2001, 1 run lead, blew it and the season in 10 batters. -59.8% cWPA. He also had a 19.9% cWPA game (3 IP in 2003 game 7 vs Boston in the ALCS, 9th-11th 0 R, got the win. Wondered how a reliever could get that high a cWPA, sure makes sense once you see it.

No one fielded the position better.

Jim Kaat won a bunch of GGs, was he that much better than everyone else?

Jim Kaat won a bunch of GGs, was he that much better than everyone else?

He probably didn't deserve all 16 of them. But some of them, certainly!

I have no opinion on the 7 Emmys he also won. But I'm very happy he made it to Cooperstown while he was still able to enjoy it.

No runs, but an excellent grinding inning by the bottom of the line-up.

A 2-1 lead against Skenes (on 59 pitches) headed to the bottom of the third? I'll take it.

Bieber to start Friday against the Marlins.

Two excellent innings in a row from the offence. This was always going to be a tough night for Varsho.

Another unimpressive start by our pitching.

Vlad with a couple of very nice plays in that inning there.

Gausman gets out of the third inning allowing only one run, but he sure had to work for it. He seems to be nibbling an awful lot in recent outings. Maybe he doesn't fully trust his stuff in the zone right now.

The radio guys were suggesting that he wouldn't be likely to be nibbling vs. the 30th rated offence, and that his mechanics might be off, possibly due to injury.

I can see why Skenes is no fun to face for almost anybody. Not only is the stuff nasty, but the delivery is hurky jerky, the arm angle funky (probably hard to pick up the ball out of his hand) and the dude is just enormous. Jays have done a quality job to this point battling him (though that quick 4th was less than ideal).

The umps is squeezing both pitchers.

If I had to guess, I would say groin injury to VGJ. Those leg splits at first base can get a bit extreme.

Oh no Vladdy.

showed Vladdy pointing to hammy

Sometimes you need to learn a lesson the hard way before you adjust. Vlad hurting himself in a completely unnecessary move that he does constantly and looks like it would lead to an injury every time he does it is unfortunately not a shock. Hopefully it’s nothing serious, he’s back soon, and he stops doing that.

Good post, SK.

Looks like it happened in the first. So thankfully, Vladdy can continue to do the splits once he comes back. Tomorrow, I hope.

At least the injury happened now and not in October.

Hamstring tightness. Probably misses the rest of this series, but hopefully that's it.

Keeping Ty France on the roster, instead of cutting him loose, is looking even better now.

Nick Ashbourne
@NickAshbourne
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Addison Barger smacked the hardest-hit ball anyone has ever hit off Paul Skenes at the MLB level (115.8 mph). The previous high was 112.5 mph.

Little is a bit of a carnival ride sometimes, isn’t he. Balls sailing and bouncing everywhere.

If Vladdy was experiencing hamstring tightness in the first inning, why did he go into a deep splits position to catch Bo's throw later in the game? It was a great play in terms of recording the out at first base, but seemingly very risky from an injury point of view.

At the moment Baltimore is up 4-0 on Boston and Detroit is up 10-0 on Houston, so the Blue Jays might have some standings insurance against the outcome in this game.

Well known hot head Tommy Pham.

It takes a special kind of player to pimp a walk, that’s for sure.

Sloppy game

Jays throwing it around everywhere tonight. Ugly stuff.

Uncharacteristically bad defensive game by the Jays tonight. Just sloppy all the way around.

Ugly game. Jays D has been a lot worse in last couple of months. Bo is - 5 OAA in August. Clement is - 4 OAA since July 1. Barger - 8 in that period. Only Varsho and Straw are at least +2 OAA over last two months. In June, Jays had 4 guys at least that good.

If you had told me that in the Gausman-Skenes matchup we'd see a tie game turned over to the bullpens, I think I would have been a happy boy. And yet...

I suspect that some hitters have the Brendon Little scouting report - which is, basically, "don't swing, it's not a strike" - and are taking it seriously.

Yeah, I have had little confidence in Little for awhile now. The biggest miss at the trading deadline might be not getting a stronger LH reliever. Nothing can be done now, except to keep mixing in Fluharty and seeing which RH relievers can handle facing key LH hitters, plus hoping Little finds that early season form.

I missed the Tommy Pham stuff. What happened?

If Vladdy was experiencing hamstring tightness in the first inning, why did he go into a deep splits position

I suspect that didn't bother him, he came back out and played some more first base. I think he was worried about running.

Remember, kids - don't run into the wall. Make a business decision.

Hard to tell exactly what happened with Pham. He walked, slammed the bat down on home plate, took a few steps to first then turned back to Heinemann saying something. Benches cleared.

It seemed like Heinemann said "I wasn't talking to you" but no one know what was said.

Pham has a history of hot headed actions so it probably was nothing.

The lack of a true number 1 starter hurts the club. It's a collection of 3s and 4s and when you regularly can't pitch more than 5 inning, it wears out all the relievers and really shows the warts.

We've seen the Jays hit ace pitchers in almost every series, even the bad teams, and the Jays just don't have anyone dominant or scary.

The Jays position players also look exhausted... one of the downsides of all the player switches throughout a game - other than Heineman, no one gets regular rest. That's probably why the defensive game has slumped.

Vladdy is apparently headed for an MRI. Does this mean he'll be going to The Pitt? Probably he should see Dr. Michael "Robby" Robinavitch for an initial assessment.

Thankfully we do know exactly what happened.



Keegan Matheson
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Aug 18, 2025
@KeeganMatheson
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Tyler Heineman told us that he didn't say a word and "you're probably just as confused as I am" about Tommy Pham and the benches clearing.

“I don’t even know him. No idea. Barely know who he is.”

“It was weird, man. It was weird. It was unprovoked and super weird." #BlueJays



Tommy Pham
@TphamLV
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Bitching about a ball not being called a strike to the umpire when it’s clearly below the zone and away is disrespectful not only to the umpire but the hitter as well so like I said when I flipped the bat fuck him @KeeganMatheson dude has two years in the show I know the zone

Pham goes on to imply that Barger is on steroids.

Pretty weird for a player to say another player uses steroids. Not sure there is any indication of that other than the fact that Barger is one of the most ripped players we've had in the chest and arms while still having a very fit body. Could always be roids, but could also just be a fit 25 year old professional athlete.

From GabrielSyme: "The Jays lack star power (even Vlad is only ~20th overall in bWAR) but have incredible depth. I think you could have an interesting stat for depth vs. star power - the ratio of WAR for the top four players on the team vs the WAR of the rest of the roster combined." The right way to tell if something is balanced or extreme is likely through a gini coefficient (I.e., the same thing people use to describe how equal/unequal wealth or income is in a population). If you treat negative WAR as 0 WAR (so you don't mess up in that way) you can calculate across baseball how much each team is a stars team versus a balanced team based on WAR. The Jays are actually middle of the pack (this is based on me working with ChatGPT on the calculations using baseball reference WAR values): MLB Teams by WAR Gini (2025, Baseball-Reference, combined batters + pitchers) Higher Gini = more concentrated in a few stars; Lower = more depth-driven

Rank	Team	        Gini	Total WAR	Top 3 share	Top 5 share
1	Colorado	0.863	94.96	58.97%	77.93%
2	Cleveland	0.837	149.78	64.76%	78.78%
3	Kansas City	0.828	173.13	61.80%	75.09%
4	Baltimore	0.825	195.47	44.51%	62.41%
5	San Diego	0.824	191.84	57.34%	76.63%
6	Washington	0.816	140.66	61.12%	76.01%
7	Minnesota	0.809	177.85	59.05%	74.49%
8	St. Louis	0.803	164.42	55.91%	72.68%
9	Oakland 	0.798	136.52	59.46%	75.03%
10	Pittsburgh	0.789	160.33	56.78%	72.34%
11	Detroit 	0.785	159.84	55.62%	72.51%
12	Chicago WS	0.776	139.11	56.84%	72.28%
13	San Fran	0.763	180.25	53.42%	70.18%
14	Miami   	0.757	170.62	52.37%	69.41%
15	Tampa Bay	0.746	174.36	51.94%	69.63%
16	Toronto 	0.739	170.43	49.21%	66.88%
17	Milwaukee	0.731	183.19	48.34%	65.90%
18	Texas   	0.719	190.84	47.52%	64.71%
19	Arizona 	0.707	193.32	46.02%	63.28%
20	Houston 	0.694	205.18	44.63%	61.42%
21	Seattle 	0.681	200.54	42.78%	59.24%
22	LA Angels	0.666	189.67	41.93%	58.22%
23	Boston	        0.654	193.68	40.48%	57.15%
24	NY Mets	        0.643	200.92	39.52%	56.71%
25	Chicago Cubs	0.631	206.11	38.67%	55.89%
26	Philadelphia	0.617	209.77	37.01%	54.49%
27	NY Yankees	0.606	206.45	35.88%	53.01%
28	Atlanta	        0.593	214.83	34.74%	51.52%
29	LA Dodgers	0.584	219.04	33.55%	50.80%
30	Cincinnati	0.571	215.28	32.71%	49.75%

This is for combined pitchers+position players. If you split it by each you'd get different results (but I'm on a time out for the free level of chatgpt data analysis so I can't do that for about a day).

Hmm, looks like the GPT output is off as the total WAR table doesn't make sense and the Jays top 3 have about 10.9 of 33 war so more like 1/3, so not sure.

Ok, so I'm now suspicious about the gini coefficients but at least the WAR looks plausible (remembering that it is non-negative treating all negative as 0) and Toronto's are correct:

Rank  Team                Gini  Total WAR    Top3    Top5   Bat WAR   Pit WAR
   1  Colorado           0.839       14.9   43.0%   60.4%       7.7       7.2
   2  Baltimore          0.821       29.2   38.0%   52.1%      17.6      11.6
   3  Arizona            0.798       35.0   35.7%   54.3%      20.6      14.4
   4  Texas              0.791       35.4   36.2%   53.4%      23.0      12.4
   5  Dodgers            0.789       37.9   34.3%   50.9%      26.5      11.4
   6  Angels             0.785       28.5   37.5%   53.0%      13.2      15.3
   7  Seattle            0.785       38.3   38.9%   55.6%      25.0      13.3
   8  Houston            0.769       39.6   34.6%   47.7%      17.6      22.0
   9  Cubs               0.758       43.5   34.9%   50.1%      33.1      10.4
  10  BOS                0.757       42.3   29.9%   46.1%      28.2      14.1
  11  Miami              0.756       36.4   35.7%   51.1%      22.5      13.9
  12  Cleveland          0.751       32.2   31.7%   46.6%      13.5      18.7
  13  Yankees            0.744       42.7   31.6%   48.7%      24.8      17.9
  14  Tampa              0.742       34.8   33.6%   49.4%      19.7      15.1
  15  Toronto            0.715       40.3   25.6%   37.7%      26.6      13.7
  16  Kansas City        0.714       31.8   32.4%   47.8%      16.1      15.7
  17  Mets               0.714       40.5   29.0%   45.4%      23.2      17.3
  18  Detroit            0.711       39.0   30.0%   46.1%      25.9      13.1
  19  San Francisco      0.709       42.4   29.7%   44.6%      28.1      14.3
  20  Atlanta            0.708       39.5   27.3%   43.8%      27.9      11.6
  21  Oakland            0.707       33.8   33.4%   49.4%      21.1      12.7
  22  Minnesota Twins    0.707       28.3   33.2%   49.1%      11.1      17.2
  23  Washington         0.706       31.6   33.8%   49.7%      22.3       9.3
  24  Boston             0.706       42.3   29.9%   46.1%      28.2      14.1
  25  Pittsburgh         0.705       25.9   36.3%   45.9%       8.7      17.2
  26  Philidelphia       0.705       43.1   35.3%   52.7%      17.6      25.5
  27  San Diego          0.704       39.3   32.6%   44.3%      17.0      22.3
  28  Milwaukee          0.666       44.3   25.7%   38.4%      24.5      19.8
  29  St. Louis          0.627       26.2   26.3%   38.9%      16.5       9.7
  30  Cincinnati         0.620       44.8   24.1%   39.6%      28.6      16.2

If these numbers are right Toronto is one of the lowest in top3% and is the lowest in top5%. So either the gini coefficient calculation from chatgpt is off, or maybe that isn't the right way to calculate it? Maybe the problem is different number of players on each team with non-negative WAR since if some team adds 10 guys with 0.1 it will make it seem much less evenly distributed even if those are guys 30-40 versus some other team that has 10 fewer guys with non-negative WAR?

Since he was in Vancouver, Barger has had a complete physical transformation.

Pham looks like he is speaking from experience.

I don't know what a "#1 starter" looks like in terms of innings they give you. Compare Nathan Eovaldi with Kevin Gausman. Eovaldi has unquestionably been the better pitcher this year and has gone 6 innings plus in 13 of his 21 starts, whereas Gausman has gone 6 innings plus in 14 of his 25 starts.

As a pitching staff, Toronto is right around league average in terms of innings pitched by the starting staff, but definitely in the bottom third of effectiveness by any measure.

However with the departure of Bowden Francis, the arrival of Eric Lauer and the addition of Shane Bieber, it is reasonable to expect that the Blue Jay staff will deliver at least an average number of innings and average effectiveness for the remainder of the season. That should be fine.

Pitching usage for the playoffs is an entirely different story and there is a noticeable difference between the first round and succeeding rounds (with the bye becoming important).

Pham's career SO% is 26.77. Not sure he can claim to have a good eye.

Who would you take from 2022-2026 Kevin Gausman or Nathan Eovaldi? No if one of them wanted to sign with you and the other didn't?

Shane Bieber is the best chance the FO had at acquiring an ace without emptying the farm for an "ace-like" Joe Ryan so... yeah they don't have an ace but what have they done to try to get one? They've thrown money at Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes and Shohei Ohtani. They have no ace and they haven't developed one on the farm without drafting one in the first round (most teams competing and drafting where the Jays do also don't develop aces as well).

Therefore my opinion is yes they don't have a bonafide ace but what could they do differently in 2025 to have changed that? To me it's like Toronto not having an ocean. We have a lake and we can't really change that.

FYI: I NEVER trust AI as it is largely crap imo at this stage, but I know many who love it. So I decided to go to FanGraphs and make up a table myself.

Team	WAR	Top 1	Top 3	Top 5	1%	3%	5%
ARI	27.9	5.0	14.1	17.2	18%	50%	61%
ATH	23.2	3.6	 9.2	11.6	15%	40%	50%
ATL	23.6	3.3	 8.2	10.5	14%	35%	45%
BAL	19.8	3.8	 9.1	11.4	19%	46%	58%
BOS	33.6	5.0	11.5	14.5	15%	34%	43%
CHC	33.1	5.5	12.9	16.2	17%	39%	49%
CHW	13.6	1.7	 4.8	6.2	13%	36%	46%
CIN	26.3	4.0	 9.6	11.9	15%	36%	45%
CLE	20.4	5.0	 9.7	11.4	25%	48%	56%
COL	 0.6	2.6	 5.5	6.8	429%	917%	1126%
DET	32.6	5.5	11.4	14.0	17%	35%	43%
HOU	31.4	4.1	12.0	14.7	13%	38%	47%
KCR	23.8	5.9	13.6	16.7	25%	57%	70%
LAA	13.9	2.9	 8.4	10.7	21%	61%	77%
LAD	34.8	5.9	13.3	16.6	17%	38%	48%
MIA	21.9	4.0	 8.4	10.3	18%	38%	47%
MIL	36.4	3.2	 9.3	12.1	 9%	26%	33%
MIN	25.2	4.0	 9.5	11.1	16%	38%	44%
NYM	31.9	4.1	10.9	13.5	13%	34%	42%
NYY	35.7	7.4	13.9	17.0	21%	39%	48%
PHI	37.2	5.3	13.6	17.6	14%	37%	47%
PIT	17.2	5.1	 9.5	10.7	29%	55%	62%
SDP	29.1	4.9	11.7	14.8	17%	40%	51%
SEA	29.5	7.0	14.4	17.3	24%	49%	58%
SFG	24.2	4.3	 9.6	11.9	18%	40%	49%
STL	27.7	3.5	 8.8	11.1	13%	32%	40%
TBR	24.0	3.2	 8.3	10.1	13%	35%	42%
TEX	25.7	3.4	 9.8	12.5	13%	38%	49%
TOR	34.0	3.9	10.0	12.7	11%	30%	37%
WSN	14.0	3.1	 9.2	10.6	22%	65%	76%

As you can quickly see Colorado is the freak show here - sub 1 fWAR overall due to a lot of negatives. So their top 1-5 players are critical to any success they've had. Least reliant on their top 1/3/5 is Milwaukee (#30 in all 3 categories). The Jays are next least reliant at #29 in all 3 categories. Our big 5 are Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette, Ernie Clement, George Springer. #6 is Gausman. Other contenders - Boston 20th for top player, 24th for top 5, NYY 8th for top, 15th for top 5, in fact, among contenders it is normal to be 20th or lower it seems for dependence on any one or 5 players. High dependence on a few players seems to be a common thing for bad teams which makes sense if you think about it. Cleveland who is on the cusp of the playoffs is 3/8/9 for ranks for 1/3/5 dependence which might explain why they are on the edge. Seattle is 5/7/7 (they really count on Cal Raleigh). So depth is critical to regular season success, but is it for the post season? We'll see soon enough. The danger in counting on one or two key players is if one gets hurt, or if other clubs just choose to never pitch to them (see Barry Bonds early 2000's for the most extreme example possible - 120 intentional walks 2004, pre-PED he led the league in IBB 7 straight years too).

I like using the "active roster" feature on fangraphs to get a better picture of where our current roster compares to other current rosters, ignoring guys like Francis who are not part of the team.

It's not perfect because it will omit injured players who willl be back and should be included, but that doesn't apply to most starting staffs at the moment.

Performance-wise our current starters throw 5.6ip/gm and rank #16 in era-, #17 in xfip-, #21 in fip- (but at 101 they're only 1 away from #18 at 100).....so the performance of our current staff is pretty much dead average.

We'll see if Bieber can upgrade that to "good". What might help is that recent trends have the staff splitting up bit - Gausman Scherzer Lauer have been very good lately while Berrios and Bassitt have been very bad. If Bieber can be good while replacing one of the latter two guys, the upgrade could be pretty significant.

Heineman had a rough defensive game last night. Besides the throwing error, he also dropped a ball Vladdy put right into his glove that was scored a FC. The error was his 7th which seems a lot for a backup catcher.

Only 1 catcher this year has more (8) and that's in 640 innings vs Heineman's 331. Kirk also has 7, but he's caught 737 innings. Sal Perez has 0 errors in 572 innings.

Obvious observation but the Jay's bullpen needs to stop giving up so many walks and home runs. They've been pretty shaky recently.

I know I'll mess this up and miss some names, but guys that have left the org this year, since they left:


OF Roden (25): MLB 40pa, .208babip, 26wrc+
OF Robertson (27): MLB 6pa, .000babip, -100wrc+ --- AAA 93pa, .345babip, 129wrc+
IF Wagner (26): MLB 0pa, .000babip, 0wrc+ --- AAA 59pa, .370babip, 123wrc+
OF Berroa (26): MLB 6pa, .000babip, -35wrc+ --- AAA 149pa, .395babip, 112wrc+
IF Kennedy (26): MLB 7pa, .000babip, -100wrc+
C Sanchez (28): MLB 1pa, .000babip, -100wrc+
IF Turconi (26): MLB 0pa, .000babip, 0wrc+ --- AAA 0pa, .000babip, 0wrc+ --- AA 85pa, .211babip, 47wrc+
OF Rudd (25): ---
C Whatley (29): ---


LH Yarbrough (33): MLB 55.1ip, 96era-, 111fip-, 102xfip- --- AAA 3.0ip, 65era-, 125fip-, 81xfip-
RH Urena (33): MLB 15.2ip, 56era-, 99fip-, 112xfip- --- AAA 13.1ip, 83era-, 108fip-, 113xfip-
RH Lawrence (37): MLB 15.0ip, 79era-, 106fip-, 114xfip- --- AAA 78.2ip, 98era-, 103fip-, 106xfip-
RH Turnbull (32): MLB 17.2ip, 142era-, 104fip-, 93xfip-
LH Lovelady (29): MLB 6.2ip, 200era-, 177fip-, 111xfip- --- AAA 27.0ip, 34era-, 76fip-, 68xfip-
RH Pop (28): MLB 6.2ip, 383era-, 284fip-, 113xfip- --- AAA 7.2ip, 67era-, 86fip-, 91xfip-
RH Robertson (26): MLB 0.0ip, 0era-, 0fip-, 0xfip- --- AAA 37.0ip, 100era, 100fip-, 105xfip-
LH Walker (30): MLB 0.0ip, 0era-, 0fip-, 0xfip- --- AAA 26.0ip, 95era-, 116fip-, 100xfip-
RH Tolhurst (25): MLB 0.0ip, 0era-, 0fip-, 0xfip- --- KBO 7.0ip, 0era-, 34fip-, 55xfip-
RH Boyer (28): MLB 0.0ip, 0era-, 0fip-, 0xfip- --- AAA 1.0ip, 0era-, 34fip-, 104xfip- --- AA 36.1ip, 124era-, 114fip-, 98xfip-
RH Green (34): ---
RH Swanson (31): ---
RH Barnes (35): ---
LH Garrett (33): ---
RH Dominguez (25) ---
RH Thurman (26) ---


RH Rojas (22): MLB 0.0ip, 0era-, 0fip-, 0xfip- --- AAA 9.0ip, 62era-, 125fip-, 88xfip-
RH Stephen (22): ---
RH Watts-Brown (23): MLB 0.0ip, 0era-, 0xfip- --- AAA 0.0ip, 0era-, 0fip-, 0xfip- --- AA 14.1ip, 165era-, 164fip-, 73xfip-
RH Pardinho (24) ---



A lot of guys moved on this year, and to date Yarbrough the only single one to do something to make us regret it. That's pretty good.

Though of course Rojas still looks like a gem.



Also, I didn't realize how excellent Bieber was in AAA for us: 17.2ip, 45era-, 77fip-, 66xfip-. That's actually fairly exciting.

If I'm reading his transaction page correctly, Barger was placed on the 'restricted list' in July 2019, then the 2020 minor league season was lost due to Covid, and he went back on the restricted list (or stayed on it) until May 2021 when he was assigned to Dunedin. Given his body transformation, it's not all that surprising. As long as he's not doing anything now, it's fine.

Pretty sure Barger's restricted list placement was due to his religious missionary work.

Our deadline relievers have been a bit disappointing so far. But nothing like the big bat everyone wanted.

Suarez: 17 GP, 69 PA, 2 HR, 4.3% BB, 36.2 K%, .141/.188/.266. 28 wRC+.

About that steroid accusation: someone posted a screenshot on Reddit & Bluesky of an AI search “confirming” Barger was suspended last year for a PRD violation. Surely, AI could not have mixed up Barger & Orelvis…?

https://bsky.app/profile/minorleaguer.ca/post/3lwq3dto2xc2o

FYI: for our LH relief issues the Pirates just released
Ryan Borucki. Nah. If he'd sign a AAA deal, sure, but I'd hesitate to use him with the HR issues he has had.

I wasn't too high on getting Suarez!

though, admittedly, for the price he went for I would have been happy to get him.

Wow, didn't notice Suarez flopped so badly since being traded. I mean, wow. 30 OPS+ is just plain old ugly. Since the deadline Clement is 292/313/554, Barger 250/271/429, Gimenez 313/389/313 - all 3 easily outhitting Suarez. Kirk has probably been the worst here and he has hit 195/283/341 since July ended, 72 sOPS+ - Suarez' sOPS+ is 19 (ugh).

Today's lineup has Straw in CF against a RHP. Would have been a good day to have Lukes in CF and Schneider in LF, especially with Vlad out and the team needing offense but seems like they have Schneider pegged as a platoon bat and nothing more at this point.

Hopefully nothing is wrong with Varsho. If its just a rest day then its an odd sequence to have had him in the line-up yesterday against Skenes but rest him today.

Bit surprised Varsho is out tonight as well.

Give Vlad today and tomorrow for sure, then he gets the off day Thursday.

Here's hoping the bats are ready to go.

To correct the record, Vladdy’s injury happened when he did the splits on the Bichette throw. It didn’t happen before that. Per Sportsnet:

“The injury occurred when Guerrero made an impressive stretch in the third inning, doing the splits on a Bo Bichette throw to save a run and record the final out.”

Guess he just had an itch. A bad one!

As for the team looking tired - besides the fact that it's the dog days of August, everybody's tired, they don't call it "the grind" for nothing - the defensive highlight that caught my eye last night came from the guy who leads the team in defensive innings played. At shortstop, too.

I find the Schneider VS LHP thing weird because he has basically no splits.

Good to see Springer bounce back from that HBP with a gorgeous home run. Summer of George.

3yr Stats

No Meaningful Splits

Guerrero 142 / 147
Santander 116 / 111
Bichette 111 / 117
Schneider 106 / 117
Lukes 110 / 107
Kirk 99 / 102
France 99 / 100
Straw 72 / 78


Moderate Reverse Splits

Springer 115 / 98
Varsho 94 / 106


Typical Platoonable Splits

Barger 109 / 62
Clement 89 / 119
Gimenez 93 / 76
Loperfido 99 / 78
Jimenez 74 / 109
Heineman 101 / 201

Rare dumb defensive play by Gimenez. Bichette was all over that.

Heineman is a switch hitter.
Does he have typical or reverse splits?

Such a weird time for a sac bunt call.

Jays playing some very messy baseball recently.

"Heineman" is in fact the sound that one hand clapping makes.

Ernie definitely called that himself.

Could be fatigue and playing in a rarely-visited ballpark. As long as the team continues to win series and stay healthy, that is the main thing.

Good to see Scherzer pitching well. If Bieber can do the same, the team should be well positioned to secure a playoff bye (very important for this franchise after the debacles of 2021-2023).

I don't know what a "#1 starter" looks like in terms of innings they give you.

No one does!

But I was wondering how deep starters are going my own self. I took the 68 AL pitchers who have started at least 14 games (there's actually 69, but one of them now works in the Other League, so who cares.) I gave them each 1 point for completing 5 innings. And then 2 more if they completed 6, 2 more if they completed 7, and 2 more if they completed 8. Excel skillz, I haz them. IF I don't use them, I will surely lose them.

I now have a big Data Table I may or may not share this weekend. For now, here's your Top 10. A little meaningless freak show compilation:

Pitcher    Team    PTS
        
Crochet    BOS    122
Valdez     HOU    115
Giolito    BOS    111
Skubal     DET    103
Woo        SEA     96
Gausman    TOR     96
Littell    TBR     89
Fried      NYY     85
Kremer     BAL     82
Brown      HOU     81

Obviously, these are not the ten best starters in the AL, nowhere close. In my view, this year's Top Tier has exactly seven guys - Skubal, Crochet, Ryan, Valdez, Brown, deGrom, Eovaldi - three of whom are unlikely to be pitching this October. The Jays have gone 2-2 against Skubal, Crochet, and Brown.

Who is the better CF, Varsho or Straw? Straw looks mighty impressive.

Checking the out-of-town scoreboard, there is a good pitcher's duel happening in Detroit. Skubal versus Brown, 0-0 in the sixth.

Baltimore is beating Boston 3-1, great to see.

Ernie's had the kind of sloppty night that might irk the manager enough to reduce his role for a bit.

Typo on the word sloppy = chef's kiss

I think Straw is a much better CF than Varsho right now if arm strength is included in the analysis... Daulton currently has one of the worst OF arms in baseball. Hopefully, a full offseason of strength & conditioning will drastically improve things, but right now it's a major weakness.

"Ernie's had the kind of sloppty night that might irk the manager enough to reduce his role for a bit."


I'm actually curious if Clement could do anything short of committing a crime that would make Schneider reduce his playing time. I can't think of anything.

Barger getting replaced vs the lefty instead of Lukes is interesting.

Messy game and Jays should have scored in double digits but a win is a win!

Rico Garcia comes in the bottom of the 8th with the bases jacked, no outs, and the top of the red sox order up....and promptly strikes out the side.

Sox down 2 heading to the 9th.

What a piece of work by Rico Garcia for the Orioles. Strowd (the kid who hit Springer in the head) came in to work the 8th with a 4-1 lead, Single, single, wild pitch, walk. Bases loaded, none out. Garcia comes in and strikes out Duran, Story, and Yoshida.

Great minds...

Ha

Hiraldo not so great.

Walk then HR to start the bottom of the 9th.

Red Sox tie it up.

When did the Red Sox get Nathaniel Lowe? how did that happen?

Meanwhile, the Orioles cutting loose every relief pitcher they had is not doing the Jays any favours....

Tigers headed to extras.

Never trust an Oriole

Bah. Tigers walkoff on a bases loaded full count walk With 2 out.

Players union should sue the AO company om behalf of Barger. Maybe jointly with MLB. AI is a scourge, but releasing an ibfot prodict to market that defames someone & calls into question integrotybof testing deserves the consequences.

Brewers lose, Tigers win.



Red Sox lose, but Yanks up 4 on the rays and would pass the Sox.

Surely, AI could not have mixed up Barger & Orelvis…?

Would that be why it's called "artificial" intelligence? As opposed to genuine intelligence?

Right now I'm very happy with the Tigers beating Houston - Jays just need to stay ahead of one of the other division leaders, not both. So now a 4 1/2 game lead on Houston, 5 1/2 on NYY, 6 on Mariners & Red Sox. Keep ahead of all 4 of them and the Jays get a first round break. 1/2 a game behind the Tigers for 1st overall which is a pride position, not a critical one - home field in the ALCS would be nice, but skipping the Wild Card round is critical for this club imo.

FYI: for runs for-against spread, Jays at +54 now, Houston +16, Seattle +24, but the Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox are all +90s.

Note: KC has won 5 straight to move within 2 1/2 of the WC now, tied with Cleveland. Is there a rule the Jays need to see KC when they get in the playoffs on a year ending in 5? 1985, 2015, and maybe 2025 if KC sneaks in and the Jays end up facing them in the ALDS or ALCS.

Ernie Clement gets the day off today with Davis Schneider in left-field against a RHP. Good call- Clement needs a rest and Schneider could use more work.

Ernie Clement gets the day off today

Is there any word more apt to describe this than "finally"?

What about Vlad? MRI came back clean and Schneider last night suggested he may play today.

And at last, clarity on the Barger accusations. From The Athletic:

Before Schneider announced Guerrero’s status, Barger addressed Pham’s since-deleted tweets. Barger was suspended during the 2019 minor-league season for stimulant use, not steroids, he told The Athletic. He served the suspension and continued his path to the big leagues. Barger has been tested for performance-enhancing drugs yearly since and has not faced further discipline."

please keep Vlad out today. even friday is too soon imo. let him rest.

On June 28, Tampa Bay had an 81.4% chance of making the playoffs. By July 28, it was 19.8% and now it sits at 3.8%.

In the same month, the Jays went from 57.3% (the good baseball had already started) to 96.8%. Their playoff odds currently sit at 99.6%.

Clement getting a day off against a RHP is one of the most shocking developments of the season.

Ernie;'s ill advised bunt attempt (not just the disastrous results), some sloppy work in the field, and a fairly lazy looking strikeout to end the game all seemed like the kind of things that the manager might get a bit annoyed about.

And especially given that Lukes and Schneider continue to perform like non-platoon players and are full-on effort guys, now that the jays are close to full strength Ernie can't take his playing time for granted anymore i don't think.

Imagine where the Jays could be with non-brutal advanced scouting...

it's funny Katie - i love me some numbers of any kind really, but the one that has never resonated with my gut whatsoever is those playoffs odds. they seem so fickle and variable i find it really hard to 'feel' their value. I can't quite wrap my head around how a team's chances can go from 90/10 to 10/90 in a matter of midseason weeks, and what kind of value i'm supposed to place in what that means.

And we can complain about Ernie playing too much and all but I think the real question is how much rope we're going to give Gimenez.

I get that Schneider wants to give him every chance post-injury to try and get in a groove, but it seems pretty obvious that he has to absolutely stop playing vLHP come playoffs at the latest, and there's a pretty big question as to whether he should even be starting vRHP.

oh wow - Schneider just announced Lauer to the pen this weekend.

he says it's not permanent.

and i kinda believe him - Lauer is the least established guy there, so giving Berrios and Bassitt every chance to show they should be in the playoffs rotation makes sense ego-wise.

And really it would be best for the team if one of them could step up - because not only is Lauer far from a sure thing in the rotation, but adding another good LHP to the bullpen would be a big upgrade.

but if Bassitt and Berrios continue to struggle, i actually believe that Schneider might put lauer back in the rotation.

but thank god no 6 man rotation. that would have crushed our bullpen.

Since Lauer was put in the rotation full time:

Lauer: 1.4 WAR, 62.0 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 12 GS
Gausman: 1.0 WAR, 71.0 IP, 3.68 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 12 GS
Scherzer: 0.8 WAR, 57.0 IP, 3.47 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 10 GS
Berrios: 0.4 WAR, 63.2 IP, 4.81 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 12 GS
Bassitt: 0.2 WAR, 65.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 13 G/12 GS

This move was purely ego, not results. Not sure that's the avenue I would have gone in a season where the team has a chance to win the division and get a bye, especially with the Yankees getting hot and having an easy schedule down the stretch, but it was certainly the least surprising result if they didn't want to go with a 6 man rotation. I feel much more comfortable with Lauer on the mound than either Berrios or Bassitt at this point, but money/ego/tenure made Lauer's job security next to impossible regardless of the results.

Plausible Best Lineup using Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections


1. DH Springer 133pa, .339obp, 117wrc+, 2.4war/650
2. SS Bichette 142pa, .333obp, 118wrc+, 3.7war/650
3. 1B Guerrero 147pa, .381obp, 146wrc+, 4.4war/650
​4. C Alejandro 105pa, .352obp, 116wrc+, 6.2war/650
5. RF Santander 38pa, .311obp, 110wrc+, 1.7war/650
6. LF Lukes 94pa, .336obp, 107wrc+, 2.8war/650
7. 2B Schneider 67pa, .327obp, 107wrc+, 1.9war/650
8. 3B Barger 113pa, .312obp, 107wrc+, 2.9war/650
9. CF Varsho 129pa, .296obp, 104wrc+, 3.0war/650


B. UT Clement 70pa, .305obp, 94wrc+, 2.8war/650
B. OF Straw 38pa, .301obp, 75wrc+, 1.7war/650
B. IF Gimenez 135pa, .319obp, 96wrc+, 3.4war/650
B. C Heineman 36pa, .327obp, 91wrc+, 3.6war/650

X. UT France 53pa, .328obp, 103wrc+, 1.2war/650
X. OF Loperfido 38pa, .302obp, 93wrc+, 1.7war/650
X. IF Jimenez 3pa, .325obp, 93wrc+, 0.0war/650
X. C Valenzuela 1pa, .279obp, 65wrc+, 0.0war/650

Could the Lauer move be related to managing his workload? I'm not sure how many total innings he pitched in 2024. Maybe having him pitch fewer innings in Aug/Sept will help keep him fresh for the postseason. Also, having a capable multi-inning LHP reliever out of the bullpen could be valuable for the Blue Jays over the next month and a half, protecting the other relievers from getting overworked.

They really don't have a long man pitching from either side so Lauer makes sense in the pen.

I wonder if the Jays entice Scherzer to return next season? He's been their best pitcher the last month or so.

Yeah SK while the rotation has been overall good without much great or awful over the course of the year, there's definitely been a split between the good and the bad since Scherzer came back (i.e. over their last 10 times through the rotation).

Last 10 starts:

Gausman 6.2ip/gm, 65era-, 85fip-, 95xfip-, 5.1avgwar/32gms
Lauer 5.3ip/gm, 76era-, 81fip-, 98xfip-, 4.0avgwar/32gms
Scherzer 5.7ip/gm, 86era-, 97fip-, 105xfip-, 3.4avgwar/32gms

Berrios 5.1ip/gm, 121era-, 119fip-, 110xfip-, 0.2avgwar/32gms
Bassitt 5.1ip/gm, 125era-, 130fip-, 101xfip-, 0.0avgwar/32gms


and even moreso over their last 5 starts:

Scherzer 6.4ip/gm, 55era-, 88fip-, 111xfip-, 6.1avgwar/32gms
Gausman 6.2ip/gm, 71era-, 80fip-, 79xfip-, 4.8avgwar/32gms
Lauer 5.4ip/gm, 66era-, 92fip-, 113xfip-, 4.5avgwar/32gms

Berrios 5.1ip/gm, 114era-, 137fip-, 114xfip-, -1.0avgwar/32gms
Bassitt 5.1ip/gm, 140era-, 165fip-, 108xfip-, -1.9avgwar/32gms


if playoffs started today i'm not sure Schneider makes this move. But given that Lauer fills a clear need in the bullpen, and given that Berrios and Bassitt have very long track records of success (and Lauer doesn't), I get giving Berrios and Bassitt more chances to get back to where they were in their first 15 starts this year (both on a 3+ war pace at that point).


The good news imo is that it looks like Scherzer and Gausman are rounding into somewhere close to top of the rotation form again. And if Bieber can join them, that could be a pretty intimidating front-3 in a playoffs rotation.

and despite Lauer's success this year, i'm still not sure he's definitely more valuable to the playoffs roster as the #4 SP or in the bullpen.

The role of the long man is to eat innings in blowouts. Is that really the best role for the best starter?

The role of a lefty in the pen is to retire left bats in high leverage situations. Lauer, as a lefty starter, faces mostly right bats.

Ideally, they use Lauer as a tandem starter who comes in at the start of an inning. They will probably look for a low leverage spot to use him, which might not happen.

The other part is DFA Nance or option Fisher?

I like this move and the reality imho is that Lauer, Bassitt and Berrios are all bullpen bound if they are on a playoff roster and if they happen to get a start it's going to be of the 2-4 inning variety anyway so Lauer might as well start adjusting to a 60 pitch limit.

Berrios is significantly worse 3rd time through the order, so Berrios + Lauer as a tandem might be a decent compromise. Whether that's their plan remains to be seen.

I wouldn't say the long man is used just in blowouts. Maybe the term multi-inning relief man is more applicable and the announcers mentioned last night that the Jays really haven't had one this season. If a pitcher just goes 5 inning and the game is close, someone like Lauer could pitch 2 or 3 innings, especially if the bullpen was taxed in previous games.

Bullpen since Deadline, in order of average Leverage Index:


Hoffman 7gms, 1.0ip/gm, 2.76lvg, 0era-, 47fip-, 76xfip-, 4.2war/65
Little 8gms, 0.7ip/gm, 1.48lvg, 156era-, 107fip-, 121xfip-, -0.8war/65
Rodriguez 6gms, 1.0ip/gm, 1.34lvg, 222era-, 117fip-, 150xfip-, -1.6war/65
Fluharty 8gms, 0.9ip/gm, 0.87lvg, 158era-, 190fip-, 149xfip-, -2.0war/65
​Dominguez 7gms, 0.8ip/gm, 0.74lvg, 208era-, 122fip-, 173xfip-, -3.7war/65
Varland 9gms, 1.0ip/gm, 0.69lvg, 123era-, 113fip-, 68xfip-, 0.0war/65
Fisher 8gms, 0.8ip/gm, 0.30lvg, 140era-, 90fip-, 72xfip-, -0.4war/65
Nance 9gms, 1.0ip/gm, 0.24lvg, 24era-, 39fip-, 51xfip-, 1.4war/65


bullpen's been crap lately.

saving grace is Hoffman is back on track and Nance has been great in low leverage.

Varland and Fisher have been maybe more unlucky than bad but still not good in relatively low leverage.

Little is scuffling though not quite imploding yet.

while Rodriguez Domingez and Fluharty have been terrible.

though maybe it's more useful to put them in order of Leverage Index when Entering the Game (i.e. how the manager has used them) rather than Average Leverage Index:


Hoffman 7gms, 1.0ip/gm, 2.14lvg, 0era-, 47fip-, 76xfip-, 4.2war/65
Little 8gms, 0.7ip/gm, 1.66lvg, 156era-, 107fip-, 121xfip-, -0.8war/65
Dominguez 7gms, 0.8ip/gm, 1.61lvg, 208era-, 122fip-, 173xfip-, -3.7war/65
Fluharty 8gms, 0.9ip/gm, 1.40lvg, 158era-, 190fip-, 149xfip-, -2.0war/65
Rodriguez 6gms, 1.0ip/gm, 1.20lvg, 222era-, 117fip-, 150xfip-, -1.6war/65
Varland 9gms, 1.0ip/gm, 0.77lvg, 123era-, 113fip-, 68xfip-, 0.0war/65
Fisher 8gms, 0.8ip/gm, 0.26lvg, 140era-, 90fip-, 72xfip-, -0.4war/65
Nance 9gms, 1.0ip/gm, 0.17lvg, 24era-, 39fip-, 51xfip-, 1.4war/65

Bassitt's excellent April is making his season line look ok but he's been bad since (ERA of 5 since May 1). Choosing Lauer over Bassitt isn't the end of the world but it has zero to do with merit.

the real question is how much rope we're going to give Gimenez.

Say what you will about sample sizes, but since coming back from his ankle injury he's hitting 313/389/313, and since his return from the DL in June he's hitting 263/348/343. With his glove, that's good enough to play every day.

I think he's at .264/.365/.264 (88wrc+) since returning from the ankle injury. with a .375babip.

but you're right his 97wrc+ since his June return is good enough to start with his glove, if that's the real Gimenez. though only against RHP. he's still been useless (33wrc+) vs LHP since then.

this game feels bad.

This game feels like a getaway day before an off day:(

Gimenez like practically the rest of the team had an awful April. Since May 1 (with IL stints mixed in) he has a 101 wRC+, .348 OBP, and 0.9 WAR in 136 plate appearances. No issues with him in the lineup against RHP. Probably won't get his best this season with the injuries but I think he still helps this team given the alternatives.

Geez these Pirates play an irritating brand of baseball. It’s like scrappy without any of the likability.

well, grizzled vet Bassitt steps up and responds well to the manager's "challenge" of demoting the better pitcher to the bullpen instead of him.

gritty.

Case in point, Davis leaning that elbow guard out on that Fisher curveball. Though I guess when you’re as crummy a hitter as he is you’ll do anything.

(I’m in a terrible mood and this game is not helping)

Now what's happened to Springer?

As the great Bauxite Chuck once said during Game 2 of the 2015 ALDS…

“I think Carapazza is Italian for crapola.”

It boggles my mind that this team can hang in there with the Aces but gets befuddled by Oviedo. I know someone will say “that’s baseball!”, but I don’t find that to be a very satisfactory answer. They’ve had some bad performances on get away days against bad teams.

that's what you get for benching Ernie.

and now the ump joins in the fun.

Pretty embarrassing hitting.

Pirates are now 36-30 at home, 18-44 on the road.

Vic Carapazza hosing the Jays in key spots? I've seen this movie before, and it still stinks.

Not saying Barger or Bichette would have come up with the key hit, but atrocious calls on 0-1 pitches in key spots really flips both of those at-bats.

but gets befuddled by Oviedo.

Why? The guy was a quality major league starter, he got hurt, he's getting healthy.

Jays aren't great on the road.

Any idea about what happened to Springer?

I'm not surprised that the Jays have the occasional "getaway day" malaise. The brand of baseball that they play is grinding (long sequence offence, grinding ABs, good defence, taking extra bases, etc.). Its hard to bring that 162 games a year.

What are you getting at re: Springer, Nigel? I watched the game, albeit at work, and didn't notice anything?

I'm not surprised that the Jays have the occasional "getaway day" malaise.

This would actually be an interesting subject to look into - geez, I really have no life - but I think we want to define our terms. What is a getaway day? Any game followed by travel to another city? Or just today's specific example, a mid-week afternoon game (followed by travel to another city?)

My mistake on Springer - I was following online and thought that Straw had pinch hit for Springer not Gimenez.

Pretty embarrassing hitting.

Ooh, you're pushing my buttons!

Failing to hit is not embarrassing. It's utterly normal. It's to be expected. Successful hitting is always, always the surprising outcome.

In the immortal words of one of the greatest hitters who ever walked the earth "Don't you know how hard all this is?"

Jays aren't great on the road.

True, I guess.

Fortunately, most of the other teams appear to be even worse.

Fisher is the pitcher getting optioned for Bieber.

Fisher getting optioned for Bieber is pretty funny.

I suspect that everyone's mileage may vary on the definition of a "getaway day" - I think its an afternoon game as the last game of the series to allow for travel to another city (whether before an off day like today or not).

I expected it to be Fluharty but I suspect they’re suddenly nervous about Little.

Manoah had a better results in his start today. Anybody have information on fastball speed?

I think its an afternoon game as the last game of the series to allow for travel to another city

Me too. This would generally be Sunday, Wednesday, or Thursday. Sometimes you're at home, sometimes (like today) you're not.

No point just knowing how the Jays do without knowing how everyone does. Will report!

You know, I think I'd exclude Sunday games in this exercise, as they are almost always afternoon games anyway. To me, getaway day is a midweek afternoon game before travelling to the next town.

Manoah 91-92 early, but 89-90 the last few innings per gameday..

Fisher made his first appearance on 5/11. Since then, he has the highest reliever WAR on the team (0.8), and Lauer is tied for the highest SP WAR with Gausman over that same time frame.

Magpie, Oviedo’s only other appearance this year was pretty terrible. 3 walks and 2 runs in an inning of work against the Giants.

Longenhagen on our 2 rehabbers and others.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/notes-on-more-pitching-rehabbers/

Worth a read.

It does feel like the Jays have had a number of these type of games this year. Day game on the road, last game of a series, getaway day...and they just kind of look lethargic.

Leave it to this front office to send their best starting pitcher over the last 2 months to the pen and demote their 2nd most valuable reliever all year to AAA.

Just when you think winning might finally have become the FO's top priority, they remind you what they are again.

"Bassitt's excellent April is making his season line look ok but he's been bad since (ERA of 5 since May 1). Choosing Lauer over Bassitt isn't the end of the world but it has zero to do with merit."

This is very generic and made to support your point more than offering up all of the facts. First of all Bassitt is a completely different pitcher at home vs on the road. If you're going to arbitrarily discount or exclude 1/6 of his service this year then why shouldn't someone else discount his away starts responsible for most of his poor results?

Secondly it's baseball. The longer career someone has had the less important a smaller sample size is imho. Aaron Judge is a .250 hitter with 3 home runs in August...should NYY fans start debating whether or not he will earn a playoff spot on merit if he keeps cratering into September?

I don't think the gap from Lauer to Berrios or Bassitt is very large and at the end of the day when it matters in the playoffs you're going to have your top 3 starters and your top 5 relievers. If you don't fit into that category you probably are a filler piece. Is Lauer better than Bieber, Gausman, Scherzer, Hoffman, Varland, Dominguez, Rodriguez, etc?

If we're arguing merits of why Joey Loperfido, Ernie Clement or Eric Lauer are sitting, being sent down or playing to much then I would say that's a good indication things are alright on the major league club...

"Just when you think winning might finally have become the FO's top priority, they remind you what they are again."

Oh my you're so right. For a second there I actually thought this was a good exciting team. Thank goodness you have helped me come to my senses. Lauer bumped as the 5th starter? Braden Fischer bumped for Shane Bieber? Blasphemy! It's a video game who cares about intangibles, human elements and all of that just demote the guy that split stats randomly shows us today is the least valuable.

If you're an upset poster right now, what can I do to help? Maybe go hug a pillow or something.

Next...

Fangraphs Combined Depth Chart Pitching Projections


Bieber 5.8ip/gm, 3.66era, 3.59fip
Gausman 5.9ip/gm, 3.88era, 3.82fip
Scherzer 5.5ip/gm, 3.98era, 4.03fip
Bassitt 5.4ip/gm, 4.09era, 4.18fip
Lauer 1.6ip/gm, 4.09era, 4.27fip

Berrios 5.6ip/gm, 4.32era, 4.44fip
Manoah 2.5ip/gm, 4.41era, 4.47fip



Hoffman 1.0ip/gm, 3.16era, 3.21fip
Varland 1.0ip/gm, 3.38era, 3.60fip
Little 1.0ip/gm, 3.38era, 3.61fip
Dominguez 1.0ip/gm, 3.54era, 3.75fip
Garcia 1.0ipgm, 3.66era, 3.69fip
Nance 1.0ip/gm, 3.78era, 3.71fip
Fisher 1.0ip/gm, 3.93era, 4.02fip
Rodriguez 1.0ip/gm, 4.02era, 4.06fip
Fluharty 1.0ip/gm, 4.12era, 4.22fip

Yesavage 1.0ip/gm, 3.37era, 3.44fip
Pina 1.0ip/gm, 3.91era, 4.38fip
Sandlin 1.0ip/gm, 4.09era, 4.33fip
Bruihl 1.0ip/gm, 4.22era, 4.45fip
Schultz 1.0ip/gm, 4.30era, 4.30fip
Estrada 1.0ip/gm, 4.37era, 4.48fip
Lucas 1.0ip/gm, 4.44era, 4.43fip
Francis 1.0ip/gm, 4.42era, 4.58fip

Numbers don't mean anything anymore unless it supports one's gut feeling/instinct, apparently. It's only when numbers support their argument that they are used to prove a point. It turns discussion into prosecutor-like points.

It is an exhausting extension of basic arguments such as "I like this better and think this is better," but with more information and less context which is what makes it exhausting to sift through. I find this wording becomes verbiage and bigger points are pushed aside for endless quibbles of minor things. It's a change that plagues society now like drivers who no longer use indicator lights to change lanes. The connection is laziness and I am probably guilty of it like everyone else. It's really a democratization of the information brought on by the intrawebs...

Some of these big words I'm using are just the big words taught to me in school that come from my memory of Walter Benjamin and Noam Chomsky.

The Jays will need a 4th starter for the ALDS and ALCS, as applicable, as both Game 4s would mean someone is starting on three days' rest otherwise. I definitely don't see the Jays doing that with Bieber, Scherzer or Gaus.

I think Lauer should still be in contention for those starts (with a strict pitch limit), but I feel like they might go to Berrios with Lauer playing the Kikuchi role.

I would have demoted Fluharty, but I assume Fisher will be up September 1, so I can't be too bothered by it.

They Jays will use Lauer/Berrios/Bassitt for 3-6 innings combined for a game 4 start if they don't have Bieber or Gausman or 4 days rest.

Dalimon i don't really get why you get so annoyed that people have different opinions than you.

Differences of opinion are what we're all here for.

One more thought about Lauer in the bullpen. All of the other Blue Jays SPs are right-handed, and they typically throw around 5-6 (sometimes 7) innings. So Lauer could be useful somewhat often in middle-innings situations where Schneider wants to neutralize an opposing lineup that was designed to be effective against a RH SP. In other words, he could be a useful bridge from a SP who is getting tired after 5IP or so to the better leverage arms in the late innings.

Yeah, the response by dalimon was over the top, but the post he responded to was over the top as well. Just my opinion.

I suspect the Jays use something similar to FG's projections, but probably a lot more accurate. Mixing in probable opponent and other variables FG can't do due to time/effort required.

Clearly 2 groups of starters. The potential #1's with ERA/FIP in the 3's in Bieber, Gausman, and Scherzer then the rest in the low 4's Bassitt, Lauer, Berrios, Manoah (who I doubt we'll see in 2025, but who knows?). For playoffs the big 3, then 2 guys on the roster for day 4 start (Bassitt/Lauer would be my choice). But this is where it could get very interesting and controversal with Yesavage being a variable - his 15 K/9 IP makes him damn tempting to use as part 2 of a tandem start - picture Bassitt lulling hitters to sleep then Yesavage coming in. Could be a killer combo. Who you pick for the pen will be a big factor - zero chance of putting Berrios in the pen I'd think. Hoffman-Varland-Little-Dominguez-Rodriguez are the locks.

So happy this is what we are debating this year rather than 'which kid looks like he deserves some playing time this year'?

Oviedo’s only other appearance this year was pretty terrible.

He's been a decent starting pitcher ever since the Pirates put him into the rotation. He's spent this season working his way back through four minor league levels, and looking quite good while he was doing it. One bad inning doesn't mean much to me.

they remind you what they are again.

Well, it was either a) option Fluharty, and go forward with Little and only Little as your LH reliever; b) DFA Nance, and almost certainly lose him (I heard people complain when they lost Jose Urena); c) the door they chose. I understand the rationale, but which door did you like better?

Lauer didn't deserve to be sent to pen but doesn't matter much I think. My only concern is that it might not bode well for Jays making tough decisions down the road. Let's say Berrios gets shelled again. He should be flipped with Lauer. Will Jays do it? I don't know. Let's say playoffs started next week, would Jays put Berrios in rotation because of loyalty? I don't know. I think the team needs to take loyalty and the like under consideration, after all, these guys are human but there's a time when you have to make the hard decision.

I agree with most posts. I get twitchy when I see posts which I perceive as complaining disguised as putting forth relevant discussion or argument.

I've been consistent in reading and posting on this site for a long time. When I see a random poster jump online to post a negative comment about the front office...reminding everyone that this front office proves once again that they aren't interested in winning as a top priority...allegedly they are more interested in...not winning? This ticks me off. It just feels to me like a troll wants to take a poop on the Front Office and then leave and come back again in October if the Jays are eliminated to post "I told you so."Same thing with posts about "player X is actually not very good because look at Player B's (insert small sample size here) or (insert better arbitrary contract here) as comparison. It's the same junk that wants to point out how this FO isn't 100% out of 100% perfect. Reminds me of someone who can walk into another person's home and point out how room layout could be improved. What's the point?

It's insane to hear complaints about this front office this year. I've put up with FO hate for almost a decade and I intend to call out the posters that still feel the urge to point out blips of this FO without a single acknowledgement of anything positive or push a narrative that things that are happening are unjust, unmerited and unintelligent.

I think greenfrog called me the fun police one time when I was going after him and it's probably a little accurate. I have no personal vendetta against anyone but I do want to try to hold people accountable and I do think it makes posts stronger from those posters that actually give a damn about this site, as I've seen most posters do exactly that.

Please save the criticisms on my posts, I am here mostly for the reading off the strength of most of the other posters. My niche may be to police the wild trolls.

The Blue Jays are not yet at the point of having to make any truly hard decisions. That point may come in October. Or it may not. Sometimes these things have a way of working themselves out over time.

They sent Jimmy Key to the bullpen to begin the 1992 post-season (they let him out in due course) although he'd been with the team longer than anyone else on the playoff roster. The main reason given at the time was because he had bullpen experience, because he had shown that he could pitch effectively in a relief role.

green, for the record I include you with the 95% of posters on this site promoting great content to read if it's worth anything.

This is the best season I've seen in almost a decade and maybe I'm a bit peeved that I gave up my season tickets this year too soon.

The Blue Jays are not yet at the point of having to make any truly hard decisions.

Exactly. That day will surely come, but you don't have to box yourself into a corner. You don't have to permanently lose a Ty France or a Tommy Nance just to keep an extra outfielder or a depth reliever, especially when you can just bring that guy back in ten days anyway.

The hard calls will come, but why shoot yourself in the foot ahead of time?

Did anyone check the Fangraphs bit on Beiber's rehab?

Here is the very positive Eric Longenhagen (Fangraphs) report on Shane Bieber's rehab that hypobole mentioned upthread:

Shane Bieber, who is in month 15 of his recovery from an April 2024 Tommy John, worked seven innings in a Triple-A rehab start on Friday. He looks ready to contribute to a big league rotation in a capacity approaching his peak — or at least his recent, distinguished, touch-of-grey pre-injury peak. His fastball has averaged 92-93 mph in his three outings at Buffalo since being traded to Toronto at the deadline, and Bieber is operating with surgical command, throwing both his four-seamer and cutter for strikes at a roughly 80% clip in those outings. His almost robotically precise slider command has allowed that pitch to generate comfortably plus miss and chase. He’s Friday’s probable against Miami and seems primed to hit the ground running.

I support Lauer as the choice for the bullpen. He has a very low quality start to game started ratio. I've noticed in general he gets pulled earlier than the other starters. To me, being able to regularly go 6+, 7+ or 8+ innings is one of the most important stats for a playoff starter & Lauer doesn't do it much.

On Friday I'm expecting to see the best starting pitcher since Roy Halladay wore Blue.

Dalimon just picture some posters as adorable grumpy old sardonic farts like Norm from Cheers every time you see a post like that.

And then have a drink or three before responding.

I'm gonna try that and hopefully settle things down.

I suspect things will settle down the 10th of never. Right now we have a strong contender for best team in the AL, heck, best team in the majors. We are arguing over the 8th man in the pen, the 5th man in the rotation, and the 13th hitter mostly. Sometimes we complain about our #2 guy in bWAR playing vs all RH pitchers. But overall, I'd say we are looking at a very solid team right now. The pen will drive us nuts, but I remember 1992 when many wanted Henke out so Ward could close more - fans are NEVER fully satisfied. Back in '89-93 the complaints about Cito Gaston were non-stop from fans, the media, you name it, even though he won the division 4 times in 5 years and 2 WS titles.

Right now I'm just enjoying the ride. Games like today's suck (where was the offense?), but crap happens. Yankees now 4 back, Red Sox 5 1/2 back with the two of them about to play 4 against each other (ideally splitting it, with a 15 inning game on Sunday draining their pens completely). Need a good lead over them by the 14th as the Yankees after that play 3 vs Twins, 7 vs O's, 3 vs White Sox (talk about an easy finish). Red Sox after the 14th play A's (3), Rays (3), Jays (3), Tigers (3). We get Rays (7), Royals (3), Red Sox (3). The division is up for grabs still, but having that 4 game cushion helps.

Pointing out that moving Lauer to the pen wasn't a decision based on merit (for this season), was hardly “over the top”. I said it wasn’t a big deal. There may also be other good reasons (seniority, history, clubhouse chemistry) that justify that decision. But pointing to 4 months of performance is not exactly over the top. I’m losing the plot some days on the Box. If you question any decision these days there’s immediate harsh blowback. I love the differences of opinion on the site. I’m wrong often. I learn something almost everyday reading the thoughtful posters on here. But the vibes are changing.

Nigel, what you pointed out was not over the top. I found this comment to be though:
"Just when you think winning might finally have become the FO's top priority, they remind you what they are again."

"On Friday I'm expecting to see the best starting pitcher since Roy Halladay wore Blue."

Beating David Price's 179 ERA+ would be very nice indeed!

I think people have every right to still be skeptical of this FO's base instincts tbh.

Even if i do think they've shown a change this year.

But can't blame anyone who still has reservations after a decade of experience with them.

Fair enough hypobole I misunderstood. There was blowback on that post and on mine.

This FO didn’t get stupid last year did not become geniuses this one. Like most things in life, things occur in shades of grey not black and white.

uglyone, you hated them from the get-go because of what happened with AA. I remember your regular usage of the derogatory term for them. But you've shown them a lot more grudging respect, at least in some areas, than in the past.

That said I have reservations also. Took almost 10 years to find a scouting director I actually like. Find it hard not to dislike their IFA department. And other things as well over the years.

But they are trying to win - we ain't the Pirates. They've actually been spending like a large market team, despite what AA said years ago about FA's asking for X dollars from other teams, but X+Y from us, which I believe still applies in a lot of cases.

We'll be making the playoffs for the 4th time in 6 seasons. Our win% in this 6 year stretch is .540. Haven't had a stretch like this since Gillick.

I never hated them. Never even thought they sucked.

I saw them for the corporate lackeys and asset traders that they are from the start tho. And wasn't surprised much by what they did most of their time here.

I don’t even think they deserve huge praise for finally fielding a team that wins as much as the payroll says they should for once.

But my happiness this year started when Rogers stepped up and paid Vlad, grew in watching the team's better calibre of play right from the first pitch this year, grew more watching how ruthless they've been in shedding underperformers this year instead of desperately trying to maximize value (well...after that Francis fiasco at least) - a clear change from what they've done for near a decade before this year, and of course i can't be anything but happy with their record. Pretty much all my complaints about them have been fixed this year so there's not much left for me to complain about.

Do i forgive them for wasting so many years before? Not nearly yet. Could i turn on them on a dime again? Yep.

And do i blame anyone that's not in as forgiving a mood as i am? Not a chance.

I do think that pretty much all their moves this year can be explained by trying to win tho - except for Francis - so i'll post the numbers closest to what i think they might be looking at when needed.


One thing that might ensure nothing but praise for the FO this year is if Bieber turns out to be the steal of the deadline which is looking like a real possibility.

Shapiro deserves huge praise for getting Rogers to start spending like a bigger market club. I don’t know how big a role he played in that but he played some role and that, more than anything, will lead to better on field results. That alone should be celebrated.

Otherwise, I think this FO is “ok” and have felt that way consistently through the years. You can do better but you can do a lot worse. They’ve generally won more trades than they’ve lost and when spending on pitching they have made very wise bets on arms that have shown an ability to stay healthy. Not many teams can look at their big money pitching free agents and see value in their signings. They’ve also let their IFA program collapse into the abyss and, while not terrible by any means, I don’t think they have shown any special talent for drafting and developing. Shades of grey.

grew in watching the team's better calibre of play right from the first pitch this year

I'm glad for you that you've forgotten April and May. Those months felt very "2024" to me.

Dalimon, I'm not sure why you put "if" in your post. The postseason schedule has been announced and someone would be going on three days rest of the Jays don't use a fourth starter. And, I don't see it being a bullpen game.

This problem may resolve itself in time, but they will want someone to start and presumably do 15ish batters. And, given how Bassitt is pitching, it will probably come down to Lauer or Berrios.

My only point was that the idea the Jays will need only three starters in the playoffs isn't true.

There's a common experience I've had with Gillick, Ash, Ricciardi, Anthopoulos, and now Atkins. It's me seeing the things each man has done to try to build a winner. And me thinking "Yeah, that makes sense. That should work." And then watching it not work. That's baseball, it does that. But this is the business we've chosen, all of us!

I admit that it's possibly made me more tolerant of failure than perhaps I should be. I didn't give up on Ricciardi until 2008, and I wasn't even a believer.

"I'm glad for you that you've forgotten April and May."

April starter out well! And not just results but a better calibre of play all around imo. I think many of us mentioned it at the time. Players too. 12-8 in our first 20 with a +6 run diff.

Then they finished April with a hilarious implosion - a 1-8 streak with an unbelievable -41 run diff in thos 9gms.

But May was actually good too - they went 16-12 with a +25 run diff. It just seemed frustrating because we were trying to claw our way back from that crazy losing streak. And there was that depressing sweep in tampa.

But for me their quality of play was noticeably better from day one, regardless of that one crazy slump.

My general belief is that there is very little difference between most front offices. I think 10-15 years ago, it was very different but now, apart from a few awful teams, everyone uses analytics and values players similarly. Ownership makes an enormous difference.

Glevin, I read an article the other day on Jacob Lopez, aka Chris Sale-lite. In the final paragraph:

"As far as I can tell, competitive advantages are fewer and farther between in today’s game. Everybody’s using the same models, and everybody’s pretty smart in the same ways. Where the competitive advantages exist, they’re relatively marginal."

My issue with the FO was never their player evaluation - they're at least average there and maybe better than average. I never doubted their ability to buy low and sell high and be good asset managers.

My issue was always with whether that was the right way to build a winner (especially in our division). And I'm not shocked that we finally look capable of winning in the year where we made the Vlad signing - the kind of signing that makes value-managers' stomachs turn.

Nothing correlates to winning more than payroll (over time). I won't say that nothing else matters (there are examples to the contrary) but its close.

There's less and less difference between "This Year's Stats" and "Past 1 Calendar Year Stats" but i'll keep on anyways.

And for the record I actually would prefer to put Vladdy in the 2-hole, but since it looks like him in the 3-hole is permanent now, no need to fight it.


Plausible Best Lineup using...


This Year's Stats Only

1. DH Springer 430pa, .320babip, .384obp, 152wrc+
2. LF Schneider 160pa, .301babip, .369obp, 136wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 545pa, .319babip, .396obp, 149wrc+
4. SS Bichette 564pa, .329babip, .340obp, 123wrc+
5. CF Varsho 156pa, .229babip, .288obp, 128wrc+
6. C Alejandro 401pa, .306babip, .352obp, 114wrc+
7. 3B Barger 391pa, .304babip, .308obp, 115wrc+
8. RF Lukes 329pa, .261babip, .331obp, 105wrc+
9. 2B Clement 476pa, .298babip, .313obp, 98wrc+

B. UT France 437pa, .301babip, .327obp, 96wrc+
B. OF Straw 254pa, .304babip, .307obp, 89wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 263pa, .251babip, .305obp, 78wrc+
B. C Heineman 139pa, .396babip, .404obp, 150wrc+

X. UT Santander 209pa, .218babip,.273obp, 63wrc+
X. OF Loperfido 89pa, .473babip, .409obp, 159wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 32pa, .050babip, .129obp, -20wrc+
X. C Bethancourt ---



Past 1 Calendar Year:

1. DH Springer 556pa, .299babip, .369obp, 140wrc+
2. SS Bichette 569pa, .330babip, .341obp, 123wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 696pa, .331babip, .401obp, 151wrc+
4. CF Varsho 228pa, .248babip, .285obp, 119wrc+
5. C Alejandro 518pa, .307babip, .347obp, 115wrc+
6. RF Lukes 420pa, .274babip, .340obp, 111wrc+
7. LF Schneider 241pa, .268babip, .320obp, 107wrc+
8. 3B Barger 497pa, .290babip, .304obp, 110wrc+
9. 2B Clement 612pa, .289babip, .304obp, 95wrc+

B. UT France 575pa, .292babip, .317obp, 89wrc+
B. OF Straw 258pa, .303babip, .306obp, 88wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 417pa, .263babip, .299obp, 81wrc+
B. C Heineman 152pa, .385babip, .396obp, 141wrc+

B. UT Santander 360pa, .220babip, .289obp, 82wrc+
B. OF Loperfido 182pa, .400babip, .331obp, 119wrc+
B. IF Jimenez 129pa, .250babip, .313obp, 85wrc+
B. C Bethancourt 40pa, .276babipm, .250obp, 85wrc+



Fangraphs Combined Depth Chart Rest of Season Projections

1. DH Springer 129pa, .283babip, .339obp, 118wrc+
2. SS Bichette 138pa, .324babip, .333obp, 118wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 143pa, .307babip, .381obp, 147wrc+
4. C Alejandro 102pa, .295babip, .351obp, 115wrc+
5. RF Santander 37pa, .255babip, .311obp, 110wrc+
6. LF Lukes 91pa, .299babip, .335obp, 106wrc+
7. 2B Schneider 63pa, .284babip, .326obp, 106wrc+
8. 3B Barger 110pa, .294babip, .311obp, 106wrc+
9. CF Varsho 125pa, .257babip, .296obp, 103wrc+

B. UT France 51pa, .296babip, .328obp, 102wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 131pa, .292babip, .319obp, 97wrc+
B. IF Clement 68pa, .283babip, .305obp, 94wrc+
B. C Heineman 35pa, .297babip, .327obp, 92wrc+

X. UT Loperfido 37pa, .320babip, .302obp, 93wrc+
X. OF Straw 37pa, .292babip, .301obp, 75wrc+
X. IF Jimenez 3pa, .281babip, .324obp, 93wrc+
X. C Valenzuela 1pa, .263babip, .275obp, 65wrc+

"Interesting off-season, Mr Atkins. Would you like to know how your big moves worked out?"
"Tell me. I can handle it."
"Santander's going to miss more than 100 games, and hit .179 when he does take the field. Gimenez will also miss half the season, and give you an OPS+ of .627 when he does play. And you won't get a Quality Start out of Scherzer until July."
"That's not good. Time to polish my resume?"
"That may not be necessary. Your team will also have the second best record in the American League."

If there's one thing I think I know, I think it's this:

Nobody knows anything!

I actually would prefer to put Vladdy in the 2-hole, but since it looks like him in the 3-hole is permanent now, no need to fight it.

Well, Guerrero has hit .271/.373/.415 batting second. And he's hit .335/.429/.607 batting third. When you find something that works, you probably shouldn't fight it!

The only batting order concept that they have been trying recently that I don't think makes sense is batting Barger 2nd. While his contact quality still remains good, his contact rate and OBP is deteriorating as the year goes along. I'd focus on the long sequence offence that the top of the line-up can produce and bat Barger and Varsho down the line-up. If they want a LH hitter in the 2-spot against a RH starter then Lukes or even Gimenez are better options.

Plausible Platoon lineups


...using this year's stats (vRHP / vLHP):

1. DH Springer .353babip, .399obp, 162wrc+ / RF Springer .215babip, .345obp, 125wrc+
2. LF Schneider .242babip, .333obp, 127wrc+ / 2B Schneider .340babip, .390obp, 141wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero .316babip, .392obp, 148wrc+ / 1B Guerrero .330babip, .409obp, 153wrc+
4. SS Bichette .343babip, .343obp, 121wrc+ / SS Bichette .286babip, .333obp, 132wrc+
5. CF Varsho .206babip, .293obp, 153wrc+ / 3B Clement .361babip, .379obp, 165wrc+
6. 3B Barger .294babip, .311obp, 122wrc+ / LF Lukes .364babip, .389obp, 134wrc+
7. C Alejandro .301babip, .353obp, 117wrc+ / C Alejandro .318babip, .348obp, 106wrc+
8. RF Lukes .250babip, .324obp, 101wrc+ / DH France .300babip, .317obp, 100wrc+
9. 2B Gimenez .276babip, .332obp, 95wrc+ / CF Straw .348babip, .320obp, 96wrc+

B. UT France .301babip, .331obp, 95wrc+ / UT Barger .348babip, .293obp, 85wrc+
B. OF Straw .261babip, .295obp, 82wrc+ / OF Varsho .300babip, .273obp, 38wrc+
B. IF Clement .268babip, .281obp, 66wrc+ / IF Gimenez .184babip, .232obp, 34wrc+
B. C Heineman .357babip, .367obp, 124wrc+ / C Heineman .457babip, .478obp, 202wrc+

X. UT Santander .206babip, .270obp, 68wrc+ / UT Santander .259babip, .280obp, 47wrc+
X. OF Loperfido .487babip, .403obp, 168wrc+ / OF Loperfido .438babip, .429obp, 134wrc+
X. IF Jimenez .000babip, .000obp, -100wrc+ / IF Jimenez .083babip, .190obp, 26wrc+
X. C n/a




...using 2yrs stats (vRHP / vLHP):

1. DH Springer .290babip, .341obp, 125wrc+ / RF Springer .221babip, .322obp, 97wrc+
2. SS Bichette .323babip, .324obp, 107wrc+ / CF Varsho .316babip, .336obp, 111wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero .335babip, .391obp, 157wrc+ / 1B Guerrero .321babip, .413obp, 160wrc+
4. RF Santander .220babip, .300obp, 115wrc+ / RF Santander .233babip, .300obp, 105wrc+
5. LF Lukes .268babip, .337obp, 110wrc+ / LF Lukes .323babip, .360obp, 115wrc+
6. 3B Barger .271babip, .293obp, 106wrc+ / 3B Clement .298babip, .318obp, 120wrc+
7. C Alejandro .290babip, .341obp, 105wrc+ / C Alejandro .297babip, .321obp, 101wrc+
8. CF Varsho .235babip, .281obp, 104wrc+ / SS Bichette .253babip, .289obp, 93wrc+
9. 2B Schneider .263babip, .306obp, 98wrc+ / 2B Schneider .276babip, .303obp, 88wrc+

B. UT Clement .274babip, .290obp, 84wrc+ / UT Barger .328babip, .259obp, 62wrc+
B. OF Straw .264babip, .296obp, 83wrc+ / OF Straw .344babip, .317obp, 96wrc+
B. IF Gimenez .285babip, .315obp, 91wrc+ / IF Gimenez .253babip, .261obp, 55wrc+
B. C Heineman .345babip, .357obp, 114wrc+ / C Heineman .436babip, .463obp, 185wrc+

B. UT France .287babip, .313obp, 93wrc+ / UT France .291babip, .319obp, 99wrc+
X. OF Loperfido .382babip, .299obp, 99wrc+ / OF Loperfido .326babip, .310obp, 78wrc+
X. IF Jimenez .237babip, .289obp, 74wrc+ / IF Jimenez .357babip, .329obp, 108wrc+
X. C Bethancourt .222babip, .234obp, 54wrc+ / C Bethancourt .286babip, .255obp, 89wrc+



...using 3yrs stats (vRHP / vLHP):

1. DH Springer .293babip, .335obp, 117wrc+ / DH Springer .239babip, .325obp, 98wrc+
2. SS Bichette .337babip, .328obp, 112wrc+ / SS Bichette .284babip, .317obp, 111wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero .311babip, .370obp, 142wrc+ / 1B Guerrero .319babip, .410obp, 147wrc+
4. RF Santander .251babip, .306obp, 116wrc+ / RF Santander .271babip, .323obp, 111wrc+
5. LF Lukes .270babip, .335obp, 109wrc+ / LF Lukes .313babip, .345obp, 103wrc+
6. 2B Schneider .281babip, .317obp, 105wrc+ / 2B Schneider .292babip, .332obp, 116wrc+
7. 3B Barger .271babip, .293obp, 106wrc+ / 3B Clement .308babip, .323obp, 119wrc+
8. C Alejandro .278babip, .335obp, 100wrc+ / C Alejandro .296babip, .335obp, 103wrc+
9. CF Varsho .229babip, .276obp, 93wrc+ / CF Varsho .343babip, .340obp, 106wrc+

B. UT Clement .278babip, .293obp, 88wrc+ / UT Barger .328babip, .259obp, 62wrc+
B. OF Straw .285babip, .302obp, 73wrc+ / OF Straw .320babip, .303obp, 78wrc+
B. IF Gimenez .284babip, .312obp, 93wrc+ / IF Gimenez .274babip, .291obp, 76wrc+
B. C Heineman .314babip, .348obp, 101wrc+ / C Heineman .463babip, .492obp, 201wrc+

X. UT France .284babip, .325obp, 99wrc+ / UT France .310babip, .321obp, 102wrc+
X. OF Loperfido .382babip, .299obp, 99wrc+ / OF Loperfido .326babip, .310obp, 78wrc+
X. IF Jimenez .237babip, .289obp, 74wrc+ / IF Jimenez .357babip, .329obp, 108wrc+
X. C Bethancourt .277babip, .254obp, 68wrc+ / C Bethancourt .241babip, .240obp, 80wrc+

Imagine if the Blue Jays had signed Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki in the off-season (presumably with no Scherzer signing). The Blue Jays would have "won the off-season," but they would have been in significantly worse shape this year and maybe beyond. Even Juan Soto is looking like somewhat of a bust for the price paid.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/juan-sotos-defense-is-quickly-declining/

If they want a LH hitter in the 2-spot against a RH starter then Lukes or even Gimenez are better options.

Agreed! If you were going to design a #2 hitter in a lab for this team, I think you'd come up with someone like Lukes. You do want a LH hitter up there with the three RH bats at the top of the lineup. Lukes has the best OnBase skills of your LH bats, and he does take some pitches if Springer feels like running. You want Guerrero third to make sure your best hitter bats in the first inning. And you want your best RBI man - which is Bichette - hitting behind the guys who are best at getting on base (Springer and Guerrero.)

After that, 5-9, something like Barger, Kirk, Varsho, Clement, Gimenez.

It's so obvious, John! Make it happen!

Barger shouldn't be hitting higher than 7th... he hasn't hit well for a while now (72 wRC+ in August).

Yeah, the best reason to bat Barger second right now is to try to get him some better pitches to hit, see if that gets him going.

Maybe that should say “only” reason!

I agree with all of that - currently I think the best line-up construction vs. a RH starter is pretty obvious. I'd probably flip Varsho and Barger as Marc suggests. None of this is a big deal as line-up construction isn't a big deal, but I do like the idea of Lukes grinding through some first inning pitches.

my only quibble there is that i really don't think Schneider is a platoon bat.


Pc/PA (OBP)

Schneider 4.41 (.369) vs RH: 4.38 (.333)
Santander 4.17 (.273)
Springer 3.93 (.384)
Gimenez 3.88 (.305)
Barger 3.83 (.308)
Varsho 3.82 (.288)
Kirk 3.81 (.352)
France 3.79 (.327)
Lukes 3.73 (.331)
Guerrero 3.71 (.396)
Heineman 3.66 (.404)
Bichette 3.65 (.340)
Straw 3.65 (.307)
Loperfido 3.63 (.409)
Clement 3.16 (.313)

The Shane Bieber Blue Jays era begins tomorrow. Will it last beyond 2025?

Great question dalimon5. S Bieber will have 7 starts to prove that he is fully recovered and is a #1 or 2. If successful in this small sample size he would choose to opt out and go FA. But if not he may stay to build back up using 2026 to get a 5 year contract. I am betting that he stays because his track record is only 2 great seasons in 2019 and 2022.

He did win the Cy Young in 2020, I'd like to think that adds to his track record.

16M is probably not enough.
That's basically what the Jays are paying Scherzer, but he was making over 43M in Texas.