The Blue Jays tenth road trip of 2025 takes them first to the confluence of the Allegheny and the Mononghahela rivers.
Despite yesterday's loss, the 2025 Blue Jays have still won more games when Jose Berrios was the starting pitcher than anyone else. This, of course, is something Berrios has been doing ever since he came to town. You might well wonder, as you should, if Run Support has anything to do with this. You bet it does. Here are this year's numbers - the team record in games started by that pitcher, and the average number of runs scored in those games:
(At this point, I don't much care about the seven games started by various relief pitchers or people now working for other teams.)
Of course, not all supporting runs are created equal. Kevin Gausman may appear to have received much better run support than Chris Bassitt. But you won't be surprised to learn it's basically a wash - after all, those 20 runs scored against the Rockies on his behalf are pretty fresh in all our minds, as good times generally are.
I like to view Run Support as happening in three tiers, which I will label as Insufficient (0-3 runs), Adequate (4-5 runs), and Plenty (6 or more runs.) Here is each pitcher's (and the team's) record in that circumstance (and of course, when I say the "pitcher's record" I actually mean "the team's record when that guy is the starting pitcher.")
Fortune has indeed smiled sweetly on Eric Lauer and Jose Berrios. Bowden Francis was both bad and unfortunate, which is a deadly combination. And Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman have both had to work a little harder for their money.
Which is probably why tonight Gausman goes up against Paul Skenes.
The Blue Jays have more or less had their way with the Pirates over the years, winning 16 of 24 meetings since inter-league play began. They had beaten the Pirates 9 times in a row before Mitch Keller and Luis Ortiz combined on a six hitter in the midst of last season's three game set at the RC last June. They'll see Keller in the second of these three games as well.
The Jays have won the last 7 meetings at PNC Park - the last time the Pirates beat the Jays here was in May 2014. R.A. Dickey took a 6-2 lead into the seventh (against Francisco Liriano) but the Pirates tied it up against Aaron Loup and won it against Todd Redmond.
They'll have to beat the best pitcher in the National League if they want to make it 8 in a row at PNC Park. A difficult task, to be sure.
But as a famous French detective once said,
The greater the odds, the greater the challenge. And, as always, I accept the challenge.
Matchups
Mon 18 Aug - Gausman (8-9, 3.79) vs Skenes (7-9, 2.13)
Tue 19 Aug - Scherzer (3-2, 3.83) vs Keller (5-11, 4.13)
Wed 20 Aug - Bassitt (11-6, 4.22) vs Ashcraft (3-2, 3.02)
No, I did not know the names of those rivers. I do know that the Pirates used to play at Three Rivers Stadium, which suggests that there might be a third river somewhere. And there is. It's the one into which the two previously named empty their waters. The two rivers meet, and become the Ohio River. Because Pittsburgh Pennsylvania is in the Ohio Valley. Who knew?
Not me. I'm just copying stuff out of Wikipedia, I have no shame. The dog days of August are upon me, what can I say. I think we all need a trip to south Florida.
Despite yesterday's loss, the 2025 Blue Jays have still won more games when Jose Berrios was the starting pitcher than anyone else. This, of course, is something Berrios has been doing ever since he came to town. You might well wonder, as you should, if Run Support has anything to do with this. You bet it does. Here are this year's numbers - the team record in games started by that pitcher, and the average number of runs scored in those games:
Berrios 5.87 17- 9
Bassitt 4.69 15-10
Gausman 5.20 14-10
Lauer 6.53 11- 3
Scherzer 4.01 5- 5
Francis 3.23 4-10
Lucas 4.30 2- 3
(At this point, I don't much care about the seven games started by various relief pitchers or people now working for other teams.)
Of course, not all supporting runs are created equal. Kevin Gausman may appear to have received much better run support than Chris Bassitt. But you won't be surprised to learn it's basically a wash - after all, those 20 runs scored against the Rockies on his behalf are pretty fresh in all our minds, as good times generally are.
I like to view Run Support as happening in three tiers, which I will label as Insufficient (0-3 runs), Adequate (4-5 runs), and Plenty (6 or more runs.) Here is each pitcher's (and the team's) record in that circumstance (and of course, when I say the "pitcher's record" I actually mean "the team's record when that guy is the starting pitcher.")
Insufficient Adequate Plenty
Team 12-35 19-16 42-1
Berrios 1-4 5-4 11-1
Gausman 3-9 2-1 9-0
Bassitt 4-8 2-2 9-0
Lauer 1-3 4-0 6-0
Francis 1-7 1-3 2-0
Scherzer 1-1 3-4 1-0
Lucas 0-1 1-2 1-0
Fortune has indeed smiled sweetly on Eric Lauer and Jose Berrios. Bowden Francis was both bad and unfortunate, which is a deadly combination. And Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman have both had to work a little harder for their money.
Which is probably why tonight Gausman goes up against Paul Skenes.
The Blue Jays have more or less had their way with the Pirates over the years, winning 16 of 24 meetings since inter-league play began. They had beaten the Pirates 9 times in a row before Mitch Keller and Luis Ortiz combined on a six hitter in the midst of last season's three game set at the RC last June. They'll see Keller in the second of these three games as well.
The Jays have won the last 7 meetings at PNC Park - the last time the Pirates beat the Jays here was in May 2014. R.A. Dickey took a 6-2 lead into the seventh (against Francisco Liriano) but the Pirates tied it up against Aaron Loup and won it against Todd Redmond.
They'll have to beat the best pitcher in the National League if they want to make it 8 in a row at PNC Park. A difficult task, to be sure.
But as a famous French detective once said,
The greater the odds, the greater the challenge. And, as always, I accept the challenge.
Matchups
Mon 18 Aug - Gausman (8-9, 3.79) vs Skenes (7-9, 2.13)
Tue 19 Aug - Scherzer (3-2, 3.83) vs Keller (5-11, 4.13)
Wed 20 Aug - Bassitt (11-6, 4.22) vs Ashcraft (3-2, 3.02)
