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Well, the winter keeps going and we're nearing Spring Training so what is the status vs past Jays teams?

Using fWAR by primary position (IE: a guy might have played at DH as well as C but all their stats show up at C due to how FG only has full splits from 2002 on and I want to capture the 83-93 contending stretch for comparisons)
Note: Players can be listed at multiple positions it seems as their 'primary position' thus Bautista and Encarnacion at 3B in 2010. Not exactly fair, but this gives a good idea of how strong or weak the Jays were at various positions over the years.  1987 shows how you can have a MASSIVE hole at a position (2B) and still win 97 games (Gillick really screwed the pooch that year by not improving 2B at any point as even 1 WAR there would've got them into a tie breaker at least).  DH was ugly in '89 and '85 (both division champs).  RF is funny - Bautista the main man both in the best year for our RF's and in the worst year for it.  We also see some bad years can have amazing performances at a single position but it is a team game (see RF in 2010 and 2011, both 4th place finishes).

So what is projected for this year and where does it land? Using ZiPS since it lists by position totals. If tied I list the years it ties with, if not then I list the year above and the year below (normally a 0.1 spread on each side).  This should give us an idea as to what to expect based on history.
  • C: 3.5 - 9th (1988-2024)
  • 1B: 3.8 -18th (2001-2023)
  • 2B: 3.9 -12th (2009-1982)
  • 3B: 2.0 -25th (tied with 2007)
  • SS: 3.3 -16th (2015-2013)
  • LF: 2.2 -21st (tied with 2019 & 2018)
  • CF: 2.9 -20th (tied with 2021)
  • RF: 1.6 -33rd (tied with 2000)
  • DH: 2.0 -18th (tied 2021, 1998, 1996)
  • SP: 13.8 -11th (1983-2016)
  • RP: 3.2 -18th (2008-2015)
Note: Put Santander's 2.2 projection in LF, the 2.0 for LF to DH figuring whoever would've been in LF would now DH given DH was at 0.9. At 0.9 DH would've been 27th tied with 2004.

Catcher is a top 10 all time Jays position right now with Kirk, our Starters despite the fear are also on the edge of being top 10 Jays all time.  If Alonso is added DH would climb from 0.9 to 2.0 to 3.0 (his ZIPs projection figuring DH would mostly be a mix of him and Vlad who is over 3 in projections) which would push it to 12th all time (tied with 2005).  Bregman would push 3B to 3.3 from 2.0 - a similar jump if you assume DH is now at 2.0 - and goes from 25th all time to a tie for 17th (1987).  Do both and that adds 2.3 wins to the projections overall which is very big (maybe more as the bench jumps then with Clement moving to a bench role, and the kids left in AAA or used to trade for more pitching).  Of course, this is all projection which can be very wrong, but it is the best guess we have for 2025.

I did a division comparison earlier with ZiPS where the Jays were 1st at 1B, 2B; 2nd at C, SS, CF; 3rd nowhere; 4th at LF (move to 3rd with Santander ahead of the Yanks), SP; 5th at 3B, DH (Santander in LF old LF to DH moves it to 1st in division), RF, RP and overall (ahead of the Rays & Red Sox overall with Santander added in over DH's).  Yeah, the DH's in our division suck this year - only Boston was expected to be at 2.0 pre-Santander signing.  Of course, I'm not factoring in any changes the 4 other teams in the division made since the projections were made as I don't feel like doing that much digging to be honest.  Once all ZiPs are done for all teams they'll have a good summary available to use just before the season starts and hopefully the Jays add more to make it look better.
Comparison of Jays Past by Position | 181 comments | Create New Account
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dalimon5 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 10:56 AM EST (#456165) #
Thanks John, so:

About 42 WAR not including bench

DH and 3B are big areas for improvement

When Vlad and Bo are gone this is a last place team

JB21 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 01:56 PM EST (#456169) #
Is this adjusted by PA? 8.5 WAR by the DH's 2022 seems high. I assume it includes their stats from other positions too?
John Northey - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 02:37 PM EST (#456170) #
Yep, it includes their other positions as FG doesn't limit it to just the one (as I mention for 3B). I'm hopeful they expand it beyond the 2002-2024 range someday for pure 'at that position' stats, but I doubt it is a high priority for them and I felt that limiting it to the past 22 years was a bit small of a sample given the best years were 1983-1993 (2 titles, 5 playoffs, all over 500).
John Northey - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 02:59 PM EST (#456171) #
The big question now for the Jays is how to impact the team the most. A starting pitcher might do that due to the unknowns with Yariel Rodríguez (just 86 2/3 ML innings) and Bowden Francis (half season for the ages, but the rest was not as good but 140 2/3 lifetime ML innings with a 143 ERA+ looks damn good, but as recently as 2022 he looked like toast with a 6.59 ERA in AAA over 98 1/3 IP thanks to 2.1 HR/9). Both Rodriguez and Francis have the potential to be very solid starters but do I trust them both to do it in '25 when neither has a full ML season of doing that? Nope.

I suspect at this point Atkins is holding on waiting for players to come to him - Jack Flaherty, Andrew Heaney, and Nick Pivetta all have the potential to be useful starters but all are probably demanding too much. I'm betting the Jays have a set figure in mind for each that is acceptable and a figure that is 'ding ding ding - we have a winner'. I suspect Pivetta is really regretting not taking that QO now. For the pen David Robertson could be the best left, as could Kenley Jansen among others. A few LH are there too - Jalen Beeks, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, Scott Alexander, Ryan Borucki, none are too exciting though - but any could help the pen here by giving us a decent 2nd LH with experience.

The hitters we've been through a lot - Alonso and Bregman the only ones that really move the needle. No others would be a big upgrade, if at all, on what we have. Yasmani Grandal might be interesting as a backup catcher, as recently as '21 he had a 157 wRC+ but the 3 years since he has been sub 100 every season (pre-22 he was over 100 every year). Entering his age 36 season he is nothing more than a backup, but one with lots of experience and can still hit the ball now and then. Guys like him raise the floor for the Jays, help ensure that if someone gets hurt it isn't a total disaster. Right now if Kirk goes down we're screwed for example. There are probably a few others, but not many, who could help raise the floor on this team, but the goal mostly is to raise the ceiling and outside of Alonso/Bregman there isn't anyone on the market who does that unless the Jays do a trade. Btw, the latest from SD is they are determined to stay a top 10 payroll team (ie: try to compete withe the Dodgers) so I doubt they'll do the fire sale I was hoping for. Ah well.
lexomatic - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 03:07 PM EST (#456172) #
Yep, it includes their other positions as FG doesn't limit it to just the one (as I mention for 3B). I'm hopeful they expand it beyond the 2002-2024 range someday for pure 'at that position' stats, but I doubt it is a high priority for them and I felt that limiting it to the past 22 years was a bit small of a sample given the best years were 1983-1993 (2 titles, 5 playoffs, all over 500).
For future reference you CAN break it down by position. On the Leaderboards, you go to the positions section at the top, and select the position you want for positional split.
E.G 2024Turner 71 GP 278 PA 0.5 WARHorwitz 15 75 0.5Guerrero 29 128 0.4Kirk 5 21 0.3Springer 20 96 0.1Barger 1 2 0Jansen 4 2 0Wagner 1 1 0Schneider 1 2 -0.1Vogerlbach 20 68  -0.3
lexomatic - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 03:22 PM EST (#456173) #
Ugh I hate trying to format on this boardWas curious about 3B so...
  • Clement 81 G 277 PA 1.0 WAR (259/280/391) 3.6 D
  • Guerrero Jr 20 G 50 PA 0.7 WAR (404/440/553) 0.7 D
  • Kiner-Falefa 36 G 126 PA 0.6 WAR (254/290/415) 2.1 D
  • Turner 5 G 19 PA 0.2 WAR (375/421/625) -0.9 D
  • Barger 33 G 115 PA 0.0 WAR (212/272/413) -3.4 D
  • De Los Santos 11 G 29 PA -0.1 WAR (185/241/259) 0 D
  • Biggio 3 G 6 PA -0.1 WAR (0/0/0) 0.3 D
  • TOTAL 162 G 622 PA 2.2 WAR (259/293/409) 2.4 D
ayjackson - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 03:50 PM EST (#456174) #
I didn't realize Clement was DHing that much.
lexomatic - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 03:53 PM EST (#456175) #
That last post was 3B not DH. Clement didn't DH
scottt - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 04:27 PM EST (#456176) #
The problem with Adam Lind was the obsession of having face lefties.

2010 is the year Bautista hit 54 HRs. That can help people forget about your defense.
scottt - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 04:33 PM EST (#456177) #
For catchers, throwing is more important than ever.
I don't see guys over 35 making comebacks.

San Diego is going to be in a long rebuild once they are stuck with all the back loaded contracts.
There's no reason to hasten that.
The Soto trade was really good for them.
It's hard to find teams with money and controllable talent to blow to improve a single position.
It shows how crazy the Angels were in holding on to Othani and even buying at the deadline.
John Northey - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 05:11 PM EST (#456178) #
lexomatic - yes, as I said for 2002-2024 they have full details by position, but for 1977-2001 you are limited to 'primary position'. Quite frustrating, but understandable. Given I wanted to compare all I figured best to stick to one method for all rather than doing 2 sets of data where pre 2002 it was primary position and post it was pure position. Checking 2010 it was Bautista (47 G), Encarnacion (95 G), McDonald (15 G), Hoffpair (10 G), and McCoy for 1 game. Forgot how much EE played 3B back then. But go back to pre 2002 and you get nothing.
dalimon5 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 05:55 PM EST (#456179) #
Alonso should be a simple thing for Atkins. If you can resign Vlad in the next two weeks then don't sign Alonso unless it falls into your price. If you aren't signing Vlad shortly then you have to sign Alonso.
greenfrog - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 08:34 PM EST (#456180) #
Maybe Boras is waiting to see what he can extract from the Blue Jays for Alonso once Vladdy’s deadline to sign an extension has come and gone.
greenfrog - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 08:40 PM EST (#456181) #
The Cubs have acquired Pressly. Does this mean the Astros are going to re-sign Bregman?

This could be something else Boras is waiting on. Once Bregman is off the market, Alonso will be the only remaining impact bat on the FA market, which could spark renewed interest in signing him.
scottt - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 08:50 PM EST (#456182) #
It looks like it's Blue Jays or Mets for Alonso. Boston is not really interested. The Angels don't seem to be serious.
dalimon5 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 10:55 PM EST (#456183) #
Didn't the Astros just go on record to say they aren't signing him?
dalimon5 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 10:58 PM EST (#456184) #
Astros GM Dana Brown addressed the situation with MLB.com’s Brian McTagggart and other media members today, saying that the club indeed “had some conversations” with Bregman’s camp, with those talks moving in a “positive” direction. While Brown described re-signing Bregman as “a longshot,” he noted that the door wasn’t closed on the chances of a reunion between the two sides.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:12 AM EST (#456185) #
Connected people saying Alonso has highest offer from Jays but he wants the Mets to match. They're used for leverage and won't sign here unless the Mets don't increase their offer.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 05:52 AM EST (#456186) #
The Mets owner talked about not liking the structure of what Boras proposes. Maybe too many years? The Jays would probably not want an opt out after the first year while the Mets might not care if they have eyes on Guerrero.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 05:55 AM EST (#456187) #
The Astros have a 5 year offer for Bregman but he wants 7. So far, it seems nobody wants to do 6. Boston might be interested for 3 years with higher AAV or something like that.
Gerry - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 07:57 AM EST (#456188) #
Keith Law has published his top 100 prospects. Arjun Nimmala checks in at number 71 and Trey Yesavage at 96.
ayjackson - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:22 AM EST (#456189) #
I guess Law got busy after JN passive-aggressively referred to the Bowden list as The Athletic Top 100. Well done, John.

A lot of Red Sox on the top of that list. If we were to trade Vlad, some of those names look pretty enticing.

He's probably just a singles hitter at Fenway (line drives off the wall). ;)
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:24 AM EST (#456190) #
"The Athletic reported the 6-year, $156 million offer the Astros made to Bregman earlier this offseason is still on the table. The Astros are one of at least three teams to have offered Bregman a deal of five years or longer this offseason, four league sources tell KPRC 2 Sports."

"However, on Thursday, news broke that the Astros aren't necessarily out of the running, as had been previously thought. If they could trade reliever Ryan Pressly and free up money, they could bring Bregman back, put Paredes at second and Jose Altuve in left field."
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:39 AM EST (#456192) #
Vladimir Guerrero Jr x Fenway Park

Games - 46
Singles - 36
Doubles - 18
HR -12
Runs - 29
RBI - 44

AVG - .343
OPS - 1.013
wRC+ - 179
ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:56 AM EST (#456193) #
I would hope that the Jays wouldn't try to top 6/156 for Bregman. Clement and Bargar can adequately cover third for a lot less money and not that much less value. Alonso would be a much better fit, if he'd agree to DH at least part of the time. I can't see running Vlad out at third base for the majority of the season.

dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 09:00 AM EST (#456194) #
I don't think you're seeing how poor our 3B ranks offensively and I don't think Clement and Barger make that up. 3B can't be one of the weakest offensive spots in the line up.
christaylor - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 09:41 AM EST (#456195) #
From mlbtraderumors:

"Pressly will receive a new no-trade clause, plus an assignment bonus to cover the tax difference in relocating from Texas to Illinois. The trade will become official once the standard medical reviews are complete."

The above is the most explicit statement I've seen that players care about the difference in tax rates across jurisdictions. The Jays coming in second in bidding has to do with the double whammy of the tax rate in Canada and the exchange rate. I suspect they are trying, but the Jays probably need to be more aggressive and/or creative in finding ways around these disadvantages.

I want to see Bregman or Alonso to the Jays with a player-favorable opt-out, but I don't see the likelihood being that high. I wonder if the FO wants to go all-in, but ownership is pushing back, not wanting to hamstring themselves if they change the FO and tear the team down over the next year.
greenfrog - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 10:13 AM EST (#456196) #
Does anyone know the team’s projected win total after the Hoffman and Santander acquisitions? Are they currently in a projected WC position?
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 10:53 AM EST (#456197) #
It shouldn't be shocking that a guy signed to a low tax state wants compensation to waive his no trade clause and be traded to a higher tax state.
In the NHL, low tax states have dominated since the adoption of a salary cap.
Florida and Tampa are there every year despite having low attendance, which means the cap is too low.

The Jays is near the second tier of luxury tax. That's pretty amazing considering the economic climate.
The issue with Bregman is not the money he wants this year, it's the money he wants after 2029.
92-93 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 10:56 AM EST (#456198) #
Vegas has the Jays O/U at 76.5. Vegas doesn't care about defensive WAR.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 10:59 AM EST (#456199) #
It depends a lot more on how they play then on who they add.
They could add 1 or 2 WAR but the variability is plus or minus 12.
christaylor - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 11:06 AM EST (#456200) #
It's not shocking -- this was merely an unusually transparent revealing of usually hidden preferences.

I wouldn't be surprised if the NHL's solution to the tax/currency issue is to raise the cap as is rumored and let teams impose self-constraints as in MLB.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 11:14 AM EST (#456201) #
Any position can be the weakest. If the Jays have 4 WAR at 3B, it's all good.
McAdoo is a non roster invitee. Kasevich can play 3B. So can Jimenez.

ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 11:33 AM EST (#456202) #
I know Bregman would be better than what we have at third but I'd rather Alonso for 3 years than Bregman at 6 or even 5 years. Also, if Vlad could even play half of the games at third, that would raise the WAR there. OF course, there's a good possibility that the Jays could end up without either of Bregman or Alonso.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 11:48 AM EST (#456203) #
"Any position can be the weakest. If the Jays have 4 WAR at 3B, it's all good."

No Scottt, 4 WAR at 3B is not good for my particular point which is about offense at 3B. Generally speaking if you are chasing total WAR then yes 4 WAR is all good, however, regarding offensive upgrades, 4 WAR at 3B is no bueno unless it is comprised mostly of offensive WAR, which would not be the case with Barger and Clement but can be the case with Vlad or Bregman at 3B.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:02 PM EST (#456204) #
Projected standings per Fangraphs:

AL East

NYY - 87 * Division
BOS - 84 ** WC
BAL - 84 ** WC
TB - 81
TOR - 81

AL CENTRAL

MIN - 92 * Division
KC - 81
DET - 81
CLE - 77
CWS - 63

AL WEST

TEX - 85 Division
HOU - 84 ** WC
SEA - 82
LAA - 76
OAK - 76

----------

NL East
ATL - 93 * Division
PHI - 87 ** WC
NYM - 87 **WC
WAS - 76
FLA - 72

NL Central
CHC - 83 * Division
STL - 82
MIL - 81
PIT - 79
CIN - 78

NL West
LAD - 94 * Division
AZ - 86 ** WC
SFG - 82
SD - 82
COL - 64
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:10 PM EST (#456205) #
87 wins the division? I don't believe that.
The last time this happened was way back in 2000.
The Jays had a rotation of David Wells, Kelvim Escobar, Chris Carpenter, Frank Castillo and Esteban Loaiza.
They lost their chance mostly because Roy Halladay went 4-7 with an ERA over 10.

The main takeaway is that all teams are in it.
That 6 game spread is the smallest of all divisions.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:10 PM EST (#456206) #
Toronto is an Alonso and Scherzer away from contention. They are a Bregman and Flaherty away from competing evenly against the NYY, NYM, PHI and other top teams.

Boston is good and likely waiting to spend big next offseason but can become a top team with a Bregman signing.

Detroit can become a contender by signing Bregman.

Houston can become a top team with NYY if they resign Bregman.

Alonso and Bregman can determine a lot in terms of competitiveness for the AL if they sign there. Toronto to me has the most to lose by not signing one of them and this is for 2025 only. They still need to re-sign Vlad.

Otherwise I'd have to start to agree with the many posters (and some players) who are suggesting they just want to have a chance to make the WC. The other issue these posters bring up is that the Jays can be a top team if:

> Vladdy has career year again
> Bo becomes a top hitter with career year
> Barger or Loperfido break out and contribute 3 WAR or more
> The SP rotation maintains or improves of previous two years
> Kirk plays the whole year strong
> Springer has a bounce back
> Garcia needs to be lights out again with Hoffman lights out and Little and Green being lights out, essentially

This is wishful thinking and I can see now why there is frustration that Rogers operates the team at a limit of 81 projected wins, behind SEA which is a team that can't actually afford to sign free agents.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:19 PM EST (#456207) #
Vlad could have his third best year and Bo just be his average self and they're probably doing very well.
Judge stubs his toe again and the Yankees could be dead last.
It's that close. 
Hoffman, Green and Garcia just need to average what they've done in the last couple of years.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:19 PM EST (#456208) #
Scott these are projections. Injuries will change everything. Look at the Texas Rangers. When Cory Seager gets injured they likely go from the top team in the division to 3rd best. If Judge and Stanton get injured the NYY can go from 1st to 5th.

I'd like the Jays to be where the Orioles and Red Sox are at in terms of expected wins going into the season instead of Seattle and Detroit. If money isn't an issue they can easily do that simply by adding better arms. Max Scherzer gets them up to the Red Sox and Orioles and adding Alonso would get them over. Then the only real weakness is the farm which they can have more time to try to fix with their current roster.

The other shoe to drop is the trade of the surplus infielders. They easily should be able to trade from Loperfido, Barger, Clement, Schneider, Kasevich to get another 2-4 WAR in the form of a more expensive and established player.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:25 PM EST (#456209) #
Scottt the difference between our approaches is that with your approach Vlad and Bo can have career years and the Jays can still miss the playoffs. Even if they make the playoffs they will be eliminated in the first round. This has happened multiple times.

Your approach also has a reliance on the other teams to have injury and to not improve as the year goes on (prospect call ups, trade deadline additions). It's an approach that the NYY, BAL, BOS, NYM, PHI, AZ, ATL, HOU, TEX, LAD and other playoff teams do not take.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail."

Maybe Mark needs that hanging in his office.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:27 PM EST (#456210) #
It's all projections, yes.
And adding a top bat only adds 1 win or 2.
It doesn't change things radically unless the guy added has a career year and it's very unlikely that happens to an older hitter in a new park.

With Bo at short, they need top defense at 3B.
It's more important than anything else.
Gimenez covers so much ground, Vladdy can basically cover the line on every play and Bichette can stay closer to 3B.

They cannot get another 3 or 4 WAR by trading for a position players.
That's make believe.
They could probably get that out of the bench if they go beyond the defensive backups and pinch runners.
Just getting a guy who hits lefties well would help.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:28 PM EST (#456211) #
I did not anticipate that Ryan Pressly would be making 15 million/year. Clearly the Astros have strong interest to bringing Bregman back and moving Paredes to 2B and Altuve to the OF.
greenfrog - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:36 PM EST (#456212) #
A while back Jim Bowden thought Bregman might be a good add for Toronto, not only for his on-field performance but also for the leadership and toughness he provides. Bowden thought the Blue Jays could use an infusion of those qualities (although I don’t know how he squares that with the trash can scandal).
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:36 PM EST (#456213) #
"And adding a top bat only adds 1 win or 2."

2.1 is the lowest WAR Pete Alonso has ever had. Usually 3 WAR or higher for him.



"They cannot get another 3 or 4 WAR by trading for a position players.
That's make believe."

They literally did this a month ago with the Gimenez trade. They could also trade for Arenado or Arraez or Robert Jr using their depth pieces as an example. They could've traded for Josh Naylor.



"They could probably get that out of the bench if they go beyond the defensive backups and pinch runners."

I find this comment to be closer to "make believe." You can't play all of these guys at the same time.
greenfrog - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:43 PM EST (#456214) #
No matter how much the Blue Jays spend this off-season, the core problem is the organization’s failure to internally develop young talent (pitchers especially). This is a very expensive roster for the wins it’s projected to amass.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 12:51 PM EST (#456215) #
I think so to greenfrog, but considering they have some of the best talent they've ever had for another year at least, they are against doing a rebuild and they're willing to spend more in some capacity, don't you think they should spend 15% more and not only compete but also make it easier to better the farm since they won't have to promote aggressively in '25 and '26 ad they would with a sell off?

John Northey - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 01:57 PM EST (#456216) #
I think the Jays are following a budget and being quite smart this winter about it - they want to stay close to the CBT so they can push under if needed, the creative deal with Santander made that possible (CBT hit of under $14 mil a year). The inventive $2 mil cap space for IFA for a stack of cash that doesn't affect the CBT but gives Buffalo a speedy high end defensive OF was smart too (should help pitchers down there be more aggressive). They got Hoffman for millions less than at least 2 other teams were willing to pay thanks to being willing to live with injury potential, trusting that their high performance team can keep his arm in one piece for 3 years (fingers crossed).

Now with Alonso they are one of 2 teams willing to sign him it seems. He wants to stay with the Mets, but the Jays are making it hard on them. Bregman is a tough one - he wants a 7 year deal but no sane GM will give him that unless they feel the cost is justified in the first 5 (ages 31-35) as most players post 35 are toast with very rare non-PED exceptions. A 6 year deal I can see working, just 1 to write off with luck, but 7? That is really pushing it. Odds are he'll be a 4 WAR guy with a 120 OPS+ (ballparking from his recent stats). Clement was a 3.4 with a 95 OPS+ last year so the gain is 100% in offense, which we could get by Vlad playing there more often. So is it worth the long term risk for short term gain? Maybe, but I wouldn't go past 5 years or $150 mil total for his deal (6 or 7 for $150 mil sure, but $30 per for 5 is the most I see him being worth). A shame Oakland doesn't have another great 3B ready to be traded for (hey, it worked twice, why not a third time? Oh yeah, their current 3B had a 87 OPS+ last year). Sadly the best 3B available in trade is Nolan Arenado who I can't imagine accepting a trade here.
bpoz - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 02:15 PM EST (#456217) #
I don't have any faith in Fangraphs projected standings.
Michael - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 02:53 PM EST (#456218) #
The projected standings are just individual team over/under lines, so it isn't saying 87 wins would win the division so much as saying the top expected team is one that is expected to be over/under 87 wins, but if it wins exactly 87 wins you'd likely expect it wouldn't win the division because one of the teams behind it likely is +10 wins (and one -10 wins). But if each team is a random walk away from this projected point the team with the highest expectation will win most often, but the winning team in the division would still likely be 95+ wins or whatever, you just don't project which team it would be (because any single team that you project to win 94+ wins in the AL East would be favored on an under bet). That said the projections aren't quite balanced as they are one win under in the AL and 9 wins over in the NL unless I messed up the addition (this could be rounding errors on a per team basis adding up).

Still might be a reason to trust/not trust the projections, but they likely track the team decently well. The Vegas over/under is a little hard to tell too as if the Jays aren't in it mid-season, they may sell off which means that if the team were say a true talent 81 wins team you might expect much of the time (say 2/3+) they wouldn't be in it midseason and sell off, and that might have them finish 75 wins instead of 81 even if they were 81 win talent heading for 81 wins in the first half.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 03:36 PM EST (#456219) #
Pretty amazing follow up post Michael, thanks for clarifying.
John Northey - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 05:33 PM EST (#456220) #
For fun FanGraphs Facebook page listed each teams FA spending the past 2 offseasons - Mets and Dodgers over a billion, everyone else under $500 million. Jays #8 at $185 mil - less than $20 mil ahead of Texas and Houston, but within $21 mil of the Phillies and Cubs. If the Jays sign Alonso (rumored to be for $80-90 mil) they'd move within eyeshot of the #5 Yankees $278 mil, but #4 Arizona $372 mil is too far to reach unless they sign both Alonso and Bregman while #3 SF $492 mil would need them to find even more guys to sign.

So the Jays haven't been cheap (sub $10 mil are Twins and Marlins - they are cheap). The rest of the AL East are Red Sox #14 $109 mil, O's #18 $84 mil, Rays #26 $21 mil. If I was an O's fan I'd be pissed about that - any number of starters or relievers would've been a massive upgrade for them, and their 1B/DH situation is weak (both projected sub 2 WAR) so they should be deep in on Alonso but aren't. Charlie Morton ain't that big a plus, and Tomoyuki Sugano would've been wow 5 years ago but at 35 who knows? And Andrew Kittredge in the pen is again, nice, but nothing to write home about. Their big one was Tyler O'Neill who can't hit RHP but is damn nice vs LHP I know if the Jays were in the playoffs and knocked out 2 years in a row in round 1 with obvious weaknesses how we'd react if that was it in the offseason - even more anger than we were seeing pre-Santander (see last winter with Kiemaier, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Justin Turner signed. Yariel Rodríguez was nice but seen more as a prospect - and those guys were more than the O's did this winter.
Marc Hulet - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 05:50 PM EST (#456221) #
Eye balling the quality of the AL East rosters and their potential 2025 depth, I see New York first, Baltimore and Boston fighting for 2/3 while Toronto and Tampa Bay fight for 4/5.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 06:53 PM EST (#456222) #
The pitching is mostly injury related.
The only team that impresses me with their internally developed players is Baltimore and that's all they did.
Also, they have extended 0 players so far. Rustschman will be a free agent 2 years after Vlad.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 06:56 PM EST (#456223) #
" Marc Hulet - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 05:50 PM EST (#456221) #
Eye balling the quality of the AL East rosters and their potential 2025 depth, I see New York first, Baltimore and Boston fighting for 2/3 while Toronto and Tampa Bay fight for 4/5."

So the same as Fangraphs projected standings said.
scottt - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 07:45 PM EST (#456224) #
The Rays haven't done anything all winter except sign Jansen.
The biggest thing with them is where they will play.
The house of horror was a pitcher's park.
They could struggle playing in a minor park instead.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:04 PM EST (#456225) #
I think their rookie is going to be a power hitting HR machine in that park. Hopefully I am wrong.
uglyone - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 08:21 PM EST (#456226) #
"No matter how much the Blue Jays spend this off-season, the core problem is the organization’s failure to internally develop young talent (pitchers especially)."

i wonder if this is actually true tho.

last year for example they got plenty of value from dirt cheap players like Clement Horwitz Francis. this year they have even more good candidates to do the same.
greenfrog - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 09:05 PM EST (#456227) #
The front office has developed some good players over the last decade (a long time in MLB). They just haven’t developed enough of them. Plus, they haven’t obtained a tonne of high-quality playing time from the players who have worked out. Even the best ones, like Bichette and Manoah, have struggled and/or been sidelined with injuries for stretches of time. Clement, Horwitz, Francis — all small sample sizes so far.

dalimon5 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 09:21 PM EST (#456228) #
I believe you can count on one hand the amount of teams that have developed strong young players in their system...players who were not sure-fire top draft picks.

LAD
CLE
SEA
SD

That's about all I would count as exceptions not the rule. These teams have shown an ability to develop all types of prospects and for a long time and without the aid of lop-sided draft help ala Cubs, Orioles, Astros (still good teams with young talent but not nearly as good without the aid of tanking in the beginning).
vw_fan17 - Monday, January 27 2025 @ 09:49 PM EST (#456229) #
christaylor: why is the exchange rate an issue for the Jays? Aren't players paid in $US, so it's not relevant?

And why is raising the NHL cap a solution? Lots of teams are spending to the cap (or really close to it) who would probably keep spending to the new limits - but the ones in lower-tax states are getting better bang-for-buck because the players get more after-tax $$, so they can sign a good player for $7M / year instead of $8M / year and sign a better quality roster for the same overall cap hit. I'm sure Leafs would spend $100M and beyond - but if Dallas can spend the same, then they'll end up with better players..
John Northey - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 01:31 AM EST (#456230) #
Looking at projections more I think RF is our biggest issue here - and the hardest to fix due to Springer being a 'proven vet' who has 'earned his shot'. I'd be damn impressed if Atkins can find the guts and a way to trade him (even in a bad contract for bad contract situation). Springer is owed $48.3 mil over the next two years. SD has Joe Musgrove owed $60 mil over 3 (less of a cap hit in '25 than Springer) and we could use a starter more than an OF. Padres currently have a kid in LF - Tirso Ornelas - with 0 ML experience so they might be open to it (decent prospect, but just a 90-95 wRC+ projection for '25 and sub 1 WAR). The higher luxury tax hit in '25/'26 is balanced by the Jays then paying for Musgrove in '27. We know they'd love to dump Jake Cronenworth but his $72.7 mil over 6 years is a bit much even if he slots almost perfectly into the Horwitz slot (DH/1B backup who can cover 2B when needed and even has SS ML experience plus some 3B in the minors). Y'know, he might actually be useful, but he is pure bat with poor D so maybe not but his $12 mil hit on the CBT is very manageable if we clear out Springer.

I think I'm overthinking this all. Price of it being 1:30 AM and being dead tired but trouble sleeping.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 02:10 AM EST (#456231) #
Looking at Keith Law's Top 100 it is confusing. For Nimmala he says he is every bit the talent he saw in '23 (top 10) but dropped him in the rankings from 59 to 71. Weird. Yesavage at 96 he sees as a #3 starter (ranked him 13th in the draft he didn't pitch as a pro in '24). And that is it.

Of note: he ignores anyone coming from Japan or who was just signed as an IFA due to very low scouting on the IFA and the Japanese being, basically, ML'ers when signing. Can't argue with that as it makes perfect sense to me.
Michael - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 02:42 AM EST (#456232) #
Right all contracts are in USD so the exchange rate isn't a problem for the players signing here. It may be a problem for the Jays organization (although I think I read they lock in the exchange rate for contracts on signing so they shouldn't have short term currency risk).

I also think the reporting that is often done about contracts with "amount spent" is silly as people often report on the total amount of contracts, when it is really the amount per year (and really amount per year, per player, over minimum salary) that matters most. Like if I sign/extend 10 25 year old players to 10 year 5M/year deals I've "signed" $500M in contracts, but that is in many ways much less than if you signed 3 player to 1 year $100M/year each contracts even though you've signed just $300M to my $500M. The length of contract matters in so much as many of the players signed to long term contracts will not still be providing value in the later years of the contracts, but to pretend everything is just total contract amount is a silly way to compare who are spenders and who aren't.
scottt - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 07:09 AM EST (#456233) #
The cap needs to be high enough that teams in Florida lose money if they pay up to it.

Now, if people in Texas starts to care about hockey, that's a different problem.

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 09:07 AM EST (#456234) #
I don't believe exchange rate is an issue...I recall reading something a few years ago (maybe Forbes?) that said the Jays operate their payroll finances out of the US so everything coming in and going out is American dollars.
Joe - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 10:18 AM EST (#456235) #
A company the size of the Blue Jays (and Rogers in general, of course) will also hedge out USD/CAD exchange rate risks, so while all the income they make is in CAD, it's not like they're going to be meaningfully affected by shifts in the exchange rate over time.
bpoz - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 11:28 AM EST (#456236) #
I have been wondering how the Jays can build a 95 win team.

1) Sign 3 expensive FAs in 1 off season. They have to actually do this not "we were close" because that means we did not do it. So we don't know how true/serious the offers were. I would not make this statement sign 3 expensive FAs because it has not happened.

2) Trade for very good players. We did this with Donaldson, Berrios, Chapman and Gimenez. So it is possible.

3) Develop our own great/v good players. We did this with Vlad, Bo and Manoah (just my personal evaluation).

3b) V good players would be Kirk, Moreno, Gurriel, Teo and Romano. Maybe Jansen, Y Rodriguez and B Francis. IMO Gurriel & Teo were experimented with because we were not competing but rebuilding. Rodriguez and Francis were given the opportunity because we were not competing at that stage and Kikuchi was traded.

Since I said "build" that disqualifies good and bad luck.

It seems 2025 is not a year to build but a year to compete/contend by my definition. 85-89 wins. So our current young players/prospects quite likely will not be given a good opportunity to play in the ML and develop like Gurriel, Biggio and Teo did. We will get to see.

The expensive FAs will get old like Springer and so block young players.



John Northey - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 11:33 AM EST (#456237) #
In 2011/2012 the Can $ was worth more than the US$ but payroll didn't skyrocket. In '02 though when it hit 63 cents the team went nuts cutting (see Delgado) though.
Joe - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 12:13 PM EST (#456238) #
The early aughts were austerity on purpose, I think; IIRC, Ricciardi was hired with that as his mandate (and/or demand?)
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 12:37 PM EST (#456239) #
The [NHL] cap needs to be high enough that teams in Florida lose money if they pay up to it.

Given that they're both near the cap now, it feels like it would be ~$120M or more.. At which point you might be back to the "poorer teams can't compete" problem.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 01:47 PM EST (#456240) #
David Schoenfeld (ESPN)’s prediction for Alonso:

‘Best available: No. 7 Pete Alonso (Projection: 6 years, $159 million)

Others: Anthony Rizzo, Ty France, Rowdy Tellez

Best fits: San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays

Did the Mets confirm their intention to move on from Alonso when they signed Jesse Winker and A.J. Minter and reportedly told Mark Vientos and Brett Baty to start working out at first base? Or is this still down to the Mets and Blue Jays? Are the Giants really going to run back a LaMonte Wade Jr./Wilmer Flores platoon that produced a .699 OPS and just 14 home runs? Will the Mariners finally add a big bat?

The Blue Jays probably have the most to gain in signing Alonso, especially if they're serious about moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to third base to accommodate Alonso. No doubt: Guerrero, Alonso and Anthony Santander would provide a power-packed middle of the order to a lineup that ranked 26th in the majors in home runs. If Bo Bichette bounces back from his lost 2024, then you have a team that can score enough runs to make the playoffs.

Prediction: Alonso to the Blue Jays

Mets owner Steve Cohen spoke on Saturday at the team's winter event for fans, and it certainly didn't sound like Alonso is headed back to New York, with Cohen saying the negotiations have been much more difficult than with Juan Soto: "This is worse. A lot of it is, we've made a significant offer. I don't like the structures that are being presented back to us. I think it's highly asymmetric against us, and I feel strongly about it."’
soupman - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 01:55 PM EST (#456241) #
The Mets are making space for Vlad at first base. I’m not sure why Jays fans are focused on Alonso when they should be worried about losing the hall of fame level talent at that position.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 01:58 PM EST (#456242) #
Kloffenstein back with the Jays on a minor league deal.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 03:00 PM EST (#456243) #
soupman - basically right now it is trying to improve for 2025, but hopefully the Jays are trying to sign Vlad long term still. If they fail to sign him long term we'll know in a few weeks (spring training starts, Vlad says he stops negotiating). If he doesn't resign then Alonso is basically the backup - a cheaper version with less talent, but still not a total disaster. I'd much rather have Vlad but if he wants, say, $600 mil then he is gone.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 03:00 PM EST (#456244) #
" they should be worried about losing the hall of fame talent at that position."

Lots of people have commented on the Vlad situation on here but there comes a point where any Jay's fan just has to wait and see what the front office does. Much as I love Vlad, he's going to have to repeat last season several times to get in the Hall of Fame.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 04:12 PM EST (#456245) #
Im pretty sure signing Alonso can only help us re-sign Vlad.

soupman - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 05:02 PM EST (#456246) #
He’s on a HoF path and the only thing that will stop it is injury or he just doesn’t care enough to train and condition. I don’t know what makes him tick. But the Jays should by now and if they aren’t believers they should have traded him while he had value. He will be worth significantly less as a lame duck going to free agency in a couple weeks. But the front office also sat on their laurels while the trade value of Josh Donaldson went from whatever you think reigning MVP 7 rWAR/yr lock with term on a cheap contract is worth to the net of….PTBNL.

I expect Vlad to pick up where he left off. You can bet teams spent the winter looking at tape of him again. He has a couple hundred million on the line and seems to thrive under pressure. I wouldn’t bet against him.
soupman - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 05:06 PM EST (#456247) #
That doesn’t make sense to me. He has played 3b but I don’t think you would sign a fifteen year deal with anyone to play third at a stadium that has chewed up basically every third basemen they’ve ever had.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 05:17 PM EST (#456248) #
soupman the word on the street is Bo and Vlad are not interested in negotiating through give and take measures. Bo apparently has little interest in re-signing here. Vlad has given the FO a number which he is willing to sign. I don't know if you can call that an ultimatum but it certainly sounds like it's a "my way or the highway" approach his agents have taken and since you have no idea what that amount is then it's premature to pretend that this FO is deciding not to sign him. He could be asking for a 550,000,000 deal for 15 years and if that's the case you're complaining about the FO not signing that deal and letting him go.

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe Vlad told the front office he only wants to make a nbit more than he is making this year in arbitration, something closer to Devers. Maybe he told them I only want 33,000,000/ year and only for 10 years and this FO is crazy not to offer him 330,000,000.

Maybe not when Soto is a future DH with no baserunning or defense to offer and he just averaged over 51,000,000 per year for 15 years...
uglyone - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 05:33 PM EST (#456249) #
The more good players want to play here, the more Vlad will want to stay imo.

There's a DH spot wide open for playing time. I doubt Alonso or Vlad would care at all if they split time between the two slots. The fact that vladdy can play some 3B too is only a bonus.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 05:47 PM EST (#456250) #
I completely agree. Sign Alonso and Scherzer and you're more likely to go further in the standings and playoffs and more likely to resign Vlad. He gave them the ultimatum/deadline when they had zero signings done (Hoffman and Santander ordered since).

One of the reasons, I think, that Cohen is drawing a line with Alonso is because the Jays are raising the price on Alonso and they already forced Cohen to pay more than he wanted for Soto.
Glevin - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 07:01 PM EST (#456251) #
The better the Jays are the better it is. I want a better team. Think Alonso wants to go back to Mets and is just using Jays but we'll see. Not much time left for Vladdy extension. My biggest worry is that they don't extend him and then also don't trade him and then we lose him for a 4th round pick next year. Give your best offer and if it doesn't work, go get a Tucker-like package.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 07:55 PM EST (#456252) #
Does anyone else find the wait to sign (or not sign) these players interminable? Just make a decision and close the deal! Maybe it's because the Blue Jays so often seem to miss out on the player (like Sasaki and Burnes). The endless wait seems like a prelude to disappointment.
Cracka - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 07:56 PM EST (#456253) #
I doubt Alonso or Vlad would care at all if they split time between the two slots

Alonso has stated outright that he wants to play in the field and doesn't like to DH. He had only had 1 start at DH last season and just 9 the year before. Similarly, Vlady also wants to play in the field as much as possible. They seem to have settled on a cadence that results in about 30 starts each year for him at DH. If Alonso does sign, I think the setup will look something like:
- Alonso ~120 games at 1B / ~40 as DH
- Vlady ~80 games at 3B / ~40 at 1B / ~40 at DH
- Santander ~120 games in OF / ~40 at DH
- with Kirk and a few others sharing the remaining ~40 starts at DH.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 08:14 PM EST (#456254) #
Cracka - that makes a lot of sense, with Clement covering 3B for 80, with 40 G in LF covered by a mix of Schneider and Lukes I'd figure (I am guessing the 2 of them will be on the bench with Clement, a backup catcher, and someone else). 40 DH games is 6-7 a month for each of Vlad/Santander/Alonso and that shouldn't be asking too much as ideally it would mean fewer full days off for all of them. If Vlad does well on defense at 3B his time at DH/1B could be cut back further.

Or the Jays sign Bregman and make it moot as he'd be at 3B everyday and Alonso is left with just the Mets as suitors. Or trade for someone, or lord knows what.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 08:21 PM EST (#456255) #
"Alonso has stated outright that he wants to play in the field and doesn't like to DH"

maybe, but i betcha Alonso would be a lot more willing to sign here if he knew vladdy was sticking around.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 09:11 PM EST (#456256) #
I don't expect Schneider to see much MLB time this year... he's basically the new Greg Bird... and there are better options on the cusp of the majors.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 10:45 PM EST (#456257) #
Anyone hearing these "Jays have raised their offer" rumours about Alonso? Apparently they've gone to 3 years 30 million.

Also a crazy rumour from BVM Sports of an Ernie Clement Jordan Montgomery deal.

Second tier sources.
mendocino - Tuesday, January 28 2025 @ 11:41 PM EST (#456258) #
Yes, someone named Lev on X posted the numbers a day or two ago, swears by his source and taking alot of hits because it hasn't happened yet.
Also hear Mets going after Mountcastle.
scottt - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 06:24 AM EST (#456259) #
It's cool to have Kloff back.
He was lost in the Hicks trade.
Only threw 1 inning of 3 outs on the field with the Cards.
Hicks signed as a starter with the Giants. He's been mediocre so far. Hard to succeed out of the pen without control.

Kloff is a sinker/slider guy with a low 90s fastball. Doesn't have much margin for success, but starting depth is good.
scottt - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 06:29 AM EST (#456260) #
It seems the Mets have offered Alonso something worth 3/90M in present value. Santander gets 68M in present value. No way of knowing how much is really available from the Jays and how much they would need to defer. The clock is ticking.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 06:48 AM EST (#456261) #
The Clement/Montgomery piece was pure conjecture on the writer's part - it was not based on any sort of insider knowledge.

I know the Jays are looking at Kloffenstein as SP depth for AAA but, at this point, I think his MLB future is in the bullpen. The stuff just isn't anything special and the command/control has not really improved. The stuff might pop a little more in shorter stints.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 09:46 AM EST (#456262) #
Much as I love Vlad, he's going to have to repeat last season several times to get in the Hall of Fame.

Interestingly, Vlad's top comparable player at age 25 is Eddie Murray, who is indeed a hall of famer. But Murray was healthy & productive for a long time - would he have been voted into the Hall if he'd fizzled out in his early-to-mid 30s and hadn't made it to 3,000 hits or 500 homers?

Vlad certainly could end up in the Hall, but it's a loooong road to get there.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 09:50 AM EST (#456263) #
The only credible source to talk about the Alonso talks who doesn’t also have a history of Scott Boras bias (Jon Heyman) was Robert Murray, and he flat out said that while the Jays have interest in Alonso, nothing has ever been close. I don’t think Alonso is an actual possibility. This whole thing seems like the Mets and Boras trying to out leverage each other, and the Jays are just the easy team to mention as “having interest”. It’s telling that Davidi and BNS both squashed the rumor last week at around the same time. Maybe the Jays are sick of being used as leverage too. My guess is that Pete is back with the Mets and a certain segment of Jays fans will be upset but I don’t think this one was ever a real possibility given how it has played out.

I think the logical pivot here is to spend what money they have on a SP, though the options are limited. Pivetta has good stuff and might be a tweak away but will cost a pick, and Flaherty’s history with durability is the opposite of what this FO usually covets. The team still needs a hitter though. If they extend Vladdy then maybe going with the young internal options is more reasonable (as pressure for 2025 success would decrease) but if they actually go through with keeping Vladdy for only one more year then not going reasonably all in for 2025 would make the whole thing pointless.
bpoz - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 10:05 AM EST (#456264) #
If the Jays were to have a payroll of $170-200mil ($40-60mil under the luxury tax level for that year in the next 3 or 4 years then what happens?

I will answer my own question 1) The pen is somehow cheaper than today and also better/equal. The O is better but cheaper. The D is as good or a little better/worse. I cannot think of any expensive FA that is only valuable on D. KK & Pillar were never expensive. 2) The year after the low payroll there should/could be plenty of money to spend on FAs. These FAs may be pieces that make the Jays very strong. Strong enough to be considered playoff behemoths.
jerjapan - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 11:48 AM EST (#456265) #
I will say this about our FO, and as much as I think theirs a whishy-washy vision, they have stuck to it, which is the right kind of leadership, and they haven't shown enough of that.  

Shapiro has been vilified in the press before, but that was locally.  The Jays brass know they are getting torched in US media.  And yeah, screw it, coming in second is a fan thing more than a FO thing.  They are working super hard, and trying not to be stupid.  For better and for worse. 

I definitely think that they think they will finish with a winning offseason.  If they still can add a significant player or two without subtracting, I'd call it ''pretty good, considering".  If they wait things out and score some real value, that's a hearty thumbs up. 

In agree that Kloff projects best in the pen, I remember being convinced of that by you guys when he was first with us.  But the need for SP depth is way higher right now.  I imagine if he pitches well enough in that harder roll, they will consider him for length in the big league pen, among like, 113 other guys.    

Rumours aside, Clement is the right sort of guy to move out if they are looking at improving via trade, which I assume is another bush they are whacking away at.  A team looking to create roster space should have players better than whoever 'Josh Walker' is.  It feels a shame to not leverage all the quality AAA depth we've built up, and trading a guy away before he gets expensive, but still cheap and with enough arb years to be an attractive asset, to make space for the next Ernie Clement, is another 'right kind' of move for the FO. 

That Murray comp for Vladdy was interesting.  I will say this about our FO, and as much as I think theirs a whishy-washy vision, they have stuck to it, which is the right kind of leadership, and they haven't shown enough of that.  

Shapiro has been vilified in the press before, but that was locally.  The Jays brass know they are getting torched in US media.  And yeah, screw it, coming in second is a fan thing more than a FO thing.  They are working super hard, and trying not to be stupid.  For better and for worse. 

I definitely think that they think they will finish with a winning offseason.  If they still can add a significant player or two without subtracting, I'd call it ''pretty good, considering".  If they wait things out and score some real value, that's a hearty thumbs up. 

In agree that Kloff projects best in the pen, I remember being convinced of that by you guys when he was first with us.  But the need for SP depth is way higher right now.  I imagine if he pitches well enough in that harder roll, they will consider him for length in the big league pen, among like, 113 other guys.    

Rumours aside, Clement is the right sort of guy to move out if they are looking at improving via trade, which I assume is another bush they are whacking away at.  A team looking to create roster space should have players better than whoever 'Josh Walker' is.  It feels a shame to not leverage all the quality AAA depth we've built up, and trading a guy away before he gets expensive, but still cheap and with enough arb years to be an attractive asset, to make space for the next Ernie Clement, is another 'right kind' of move for the FO. 

That Murray comp for Vladdy was interesting. 
jerjapan - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 11:49 AM EST (#456266) #
Yikes!  Sorry for double posting that!
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 12:45 PM EST (#456267) #
I think one or two more significant additions would go a long way towards making this a solid off-season for the Blue Jays.

I don’t know whether the front office has the resources to do this. In the past, the FO’s inclination has often been to “spread the money around” on a few players rather than on one expensive impact player.
Gerry - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 01:12 PM EST (#456268) #
Baseball America have released their top 30 prospect list.

23 names are the same as Batters Box. BA's extra seven are Will Wagner (who we excluded); Christopher Polanco and JJ Sanchez (2025 signings who were signed after the Box list); Angel Bastardo: Sean Keys; Dahian Santos; and Eddinson Paulino.

The seven from Batters Box who didn't make the BA list starts with Victor Arias who we had at number 19. Thats a surprise. The other six were all ranked in the 20's where it can be hard to decide who to include or who just missed.

They are Adrian Pinto; Lazaro Estrada; Dasan Brown; Grant Rogers; Cutter Coffey; and Mason Fluharty. Those six are guys who could easily be off the list and several of them were not on either my list or Niall's list.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 01:26 PM EST (#456269) #
Greenfrog this FO has spent on impact players in the past, Springer, Ryu and Gausman. I'd argue Hoffman is an impact player. Santander is an impact player. What does "spread the money around," mean when comparing it so spending on one big player? Wouldn't Soto and Ohtani be the only type of 5 WAR plus players that would really fit your description and hasn't this FO attempted to sign those types of players without success? Corbin Burnes? I don't think the comment matches what this FO has actually done though it makes an easy narrative that matches the results of their superstar signing failures.
Gerry - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 01:40 PM EST (#456270) #
Still reviewing BA's top 30. The player who BA rated lower than Da Box of those who are on both lists is Adam Macko. Macko was 8 on Da Box and 20 for BA. BA believes his stuff is unremarkable and his curve is too easy for hitters to pick up.

The two players who BA likes more than Da Box are Ryan Jennings, who BA have nine places higher at 15, and RJ Schreck who is eight places higher at 14. Geoff Pontes listed Schreck as the player who has the potential to breakout in 2025.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 01:48 PM EST (#456271) #
"In the past, the FO’s inclination has often been to “spread the money around” on a few players rather than on one expensive impact player."

That's not true. They signed Ryu in 2020, Springer/Semien in 2021 in addition to trading for/extending Berrios, Gausman in 2022 along with a Chapman trade, and then Varsho in 2023 (turns out he wasn't as impact as they believed). So far this winter they've acquired Gimenez, Santander, and Hoffman, which is an infielder with a 4+ fWAR/5+ bWAR ceiling, a LF/DH with a 124 wRC+ over the past 3 seasons (with the 6th most HR's in MLB), and a legitimate closing option. Keep in mind this is after failing on Soto and Burnes, who they would have obviously preferred, and Ohtani last season. Last off-season was really the only time since 2020 where they "spread the risk" or whatever you want to call it instead of focusing on impact, but that could have been due to the bad market or by choice to avoid any long-term commitments (maybe both).

This FO's issue begins and ends with player development. They didn't build that next wave of talent that they promised, and it has forced them to spend to compensate. I don't think "not targeting impact" is a fair criticism for this FO at all. If anything, this FO is a bit of a laughing stock nationally because they keep coming up short in acquiring impact talent, which implies they are trying and not succeeding rather than preferring to go a different route. They literally just absorbed $11M in dead money in a Hail Mary attempt at an impact talent. They definitely aren't preferring a safer, less impactful route.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 01:56 PM EST (#456272) #
I'm really surprised Arias was omitted by BA. Big time exit velos but he's on the smallish side and likely stuff in LF so that's probably why.

I don't see the Eddinson Paulino love (or Cutter Coffey). When I saw Paulino play, he looked smaller than his listed 5-10... more 5-8. And there wasn't much pop off the bat but he was coming off an injury and long layoff so I'm remaining open to reevaluating in 2025.

My sleepers for 2025 are catcher Aaron Parker (53% of struck balls were 90 mph or greater, 26% were 100mph or greater), RHP Silvano Hechavarria (Older Cuban, 22 in March, with a mid-to-upper 90s FB) and outfielder Andres (Junior) Arias.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 01:59 PM EST (#456273) #
SK I guess you missed my similar post 20 minutes prior to yours. Also, one beauxite has put forth a compelling explanation for the Straw contract acquired via trade which was not for a Roki Sasaki signing exclusively.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 02:02 PM EST (#456274) #
No need to hyperventilate. I said “in the past” — as in those instances when they thought Morales would be a cost-effective replacement for EE, or when they thought IKF would be a cost-effective replacement for Chapman (freeing up money to spread around on Turner and Kiermaier).

The narrow question I was posing is whether, at this late stage of the off-season, the FO will revert to that past tendency (adding a lower-cost arm and bat), or whether they will spend big on someone like Alonso or Bregman.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 02:16 PM EST (#456275) #
If they choose to go a different route than Alonso or Bregman, then it would likely be due to either available money, player preference, too many years (Bregman), or a combination of all of those things. It seems like Alonso wants to stay with the Mets, and Bregman probably wants more years than any team is comfortable giving him. I agree that "spread the risk" was something they did earlier in their tenure, but they were also inheriting a team that had a short contention window, so it was likely just as much due to circumstances than preference. Since they began wanting to accelerate contention (2020-onwards), they've deviated from that mindset entirely aside from 2024 which looks like the outlier.

What the team does from here on is probably going to be minimal regardless. The FA pool has dried up and they don't have much to trade even if they wanted to entertain trading for a big piece. Feinsand is reporting the Jays as being favorites (or at least the most interested) in acquiring Scherzer. That seems realistic enough.
Nigel - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 02:22 PM EST (#456276) #
As I mentioned in the Top 30 write ups, I like Jennings quite a bit. Hitters in Vancouver seemed totally overmatched by his FB even though his velocity isn't anything special. I think Macko fits into the typical scouting versus results split. His stuff doesn't look all that interesting and hitters seem pretty comfortable hitting off him but he has had more than one stretch in the past couple of years where the results (particularly his k%) look pretty interesting.
John Northey - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 02:41 PM EST (#456277) #
Alonso and Bregman both seem to be asking for the moon and stars to sign with anyone right now - the Jays I'm sure are in there talking but as long as they are unrealistic nothing can happen. Wouldn't be shocked if either or both are unsigned going into spring training or even well into March. Athletes at this level get massive egos and feel they are worth far more than they are and need a LOT to be convinced to sign for less. Both guys said no to long term deals - Alonso a 7 year $158 million extension in 2023, Bregman a six-year, $156 million deal from Houston. Given both are on the wrong side of 30 (Alonso going into his age 30 season, Bregman his age 31) I wouldn't have signed either if I was a ML club. The rule is not to sign guys past 35 unless you are getting a lot or all of their prime 25-32 seasons. Going past age 32 is risky, past 35 massively risky. Springer dropped drastically on offense at 33 (from a 132 OPS+ to 102 to 92 at 34) and he was moved pre-33 to RF from CF to reduce the risk on his health (IE: the Jays did what they could to help mitigate the aging curve). Alonso is already a 1B who probably should be a DH, and Bregman is a 3B who might be moved to 2B (not good for ones health). 3-5 years or a deal for longer where you are factoring in years 6+ are write offs is the only way I'd go after them (well, yeah, I'd go shorter but with the lost draft pick I'd be a bit picky on price).

I suspect the Jays are letting Boras use them as leverage to stay on his good side for future negotiations. Costs nothing, keeps fans engaged, and they can focus on trades/signing Vlad in the meantime. Wonder what the assorted potential deals are? With DH being an issue that leaves almost anything possible. Steamer has wRC+ projections for 2025 ignoring contenders and guys just signed to extensions (Rooker) Alonso is the highest at 125, then Lars Nootbaar in St Louis (a first year arb guy who was just a 1.5 bWAR guy last year who plays all 3 OF positions, doubt they want to trade him, but who knows? Couldn't hurt to dig into it). Then Bregman at 122, then a few guys who have under 3 years in the majors thus their teams would not trade them for anything the Jays could afford in prospects. At that point you are getting too far down to be worth doing a deal imo, might as well see what Wagner and the other kids have. StL might want to deal Sonny Gray as he is owed $25 mil in '25, $35 in '26, $5 mil buyout or $30 mil in '27 (ouch) and had a 109 ERA+ last year and is going into his age 35 season (but had a 157 the year before for Minnesota). Given they can't seem to trade Arenado (he has a no trade clause that he has used once already) maybe something can be worked out here - Gray & Nootbar for something (no idea what) and the Jays eat all of the payroll added or send Springer back and eat some of his pay to make it work, plus a prospect or two. That'd give us a damn good starter and OF for a few years potentially. Some risk in Gray due to age, but he could be a #1 too. Hmmm... could work. Fun to try to figure out what could work with teams that are being cheap right now (St Louis hasn't signed any free agents of note according to the FA Tracker at FG so odds are they are cheaping out right now).
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 03:31 PM EST (#456278) #
Projected standings per Fangraphs after you factor in Kim signing today from the Rays (they have 2.5 WAR in 2/3rd's a season):

AL East - everyone destined for WC race besides Toronto now

NYY - 87 * Division
BOS - 84 ** WC
BAL - 84 ** WC
TB - 83.5
TOR - 81

AL CENTRAL

MIN - 92 * Division
KC - 81
DET - 81
CLE - 77
CWS - 63

AL WEST

TEX - 85 Division
HOU - 84 ** WC
SEA - 82
LAA - 76
OAK - 76

----------

NL East
ATL - 93 * Division
PHI - 87 ** WC
NYM - 87 **WC
WAS - 76
FLA - 72

NL Central
CHC - 83 * Division
STL - 82
MIL - 81
PIT - 79
CIN - 78

NL West
LAD - 94 * Division
AZ - 86 ** WC
SFG - 82
SD - 82
COL - 64
uglyone - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 03:34 PM EST (#456279) #
Last place looks bad until you see only 6gms separating them - a couple good signings could change everything.
Glevin - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 03:39 PM EST (#456280) #
I don't think Jays are worse than Tampa or maybe even Boston. Jays were at 74 wins last year but even just maikng their bullpen average which I think it is, moves them to around 81 wins. If they want to compete though, they need to add a couple more pieces. If Bregman signs with Houston, I wonder if they'd trade Paredes. Feels like a free agent signing (starting pitcher, plenty out there still interesting) and a trade (3B hopefully, not much available) make most sense right now.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 04:02 PM EST (#456281) #
I think BAL and NYY can be the worst in the division.

If Felix Bautista is not elite and Rutschman doesn't rebound then BAL will be in trouble.

If Judge misses any significant time then NYY are in big trouble.

BOS looks set with better players on the way via call up.

TB's line up looks strongest it's been in a long time and they have a stud SS in Carson Williams coming up. Interesting they signed Kim.



1 Yandy Diaz 1B
2 Brandon Lowe 2B
3 Junior Caminero 3B
4 Josh Lowe OF
5 Danny Jansen C
6 Christopher Morel OF
7 Jonathan Aranda DH
8 Jonny DeLuca OF
9 HaSeong Kim SS
Nigel - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 04:18 PM EST (#456282) #
TB won 80 games last year and did so with most of their top 5 starters missing a chunk (or all) of the season. I don't think the Jays are particularly close to TB in current talent level.
scottt - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 04:25 PM EST (#456283) #
Yeah, Kloff could be a bulk guy or a multi-inning guy who save the pen in blow outs.
I don't think anyone sees him grabbing the 5th starter job in the spring.

We'll have to see how the defense plays out with Gimenez.
Guys who can induce weak contact could work out fine.
scottt - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 04:35 PM EST (#456284) #
It's not that the Rays were missing their starters, it's more like they didn't have any.
Unless you think Tiedemann was one of the Jays' starter.


Brandon Lowe is now over 30.
Josh Lowe is their clean up hitter?
Jansen hits 5th?

It's an upgrade from Taylor Walls who is clearly the 9th hitter but it might come just 1 month before the trade deadline.

They could be a pitcher heavy team playing in a hitter park.
Nigel - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 05:03 PM EST (#456285) #
TB has no starters?

Going into last year their top 4 starters were McLanahan, Springs, Rasmussen and Baz - all good to excellent starters. All 4 missed a good chunk of or all of last year.
Michael - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 05:05 PM EST (#456286) #
"If they want to compete though, they need to add a couple more pieces"

I would describe it differently, I think the Jays as they are right now are certainly good enough that they can compete if things break right for them. I don't think this is the case that they can't compete as is. I think they would be very wise to add some pieces so they can get to the point of where unless things break wrong for them, they will compete rather than where they need things to break right to compete. I.e., right now the Jays are maybe 20-25% likely to compete and with the right pieces added the Jays could be more like 75-80% likely to compete. I don't know if that is a real disagreement, but I think even the fangraph numbers where the jays are clear last, but within 6 games of the top, show a team that is in striking distance such that it is not impossible that the Jays don't add anything and then win it all, they just need things to go right for them and not for anyone else in the division to do so.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 05:09 PM EST (#456287) #
Scottt the TB Rays were missing 4/5 of their rotation for most parts of last year. Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz and Zack Littell.

SS Carson Williams is the #8 prospect in MLB. Taylor Walls is just a depth piece to fill in at SS for the first month of the season if Kim is not ready.

So take 80 wins, add two top prospects joining your team in Caminero and Williams, add one of the best pitchers in baseball in Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen and you're looking pretty good. You cite Brandon Lowe as a 30 year old but he's healthy now and he's been good for HR power from the left side at 2B.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 06:14 PM EST (#456288) #
With all those Rays pitchers coming back along with a number of impressive young bats, and Boston with impressive pitching depth and even more impressive young hitters on the way up, Toronto is positioned well at all...
mendocino - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 06:25 PM EST (#456289) #
Jays seem to always have the highest offer

Boston Sports Fanatic@Best_In_Boston · 56m
🚨Breaking: A source tells me that the #RedSox are officially OUT on Alex Bregman. Source says #Boston did want meet the years or AAV Bregman’s camp wanted. Source says down to three teams. The #Astros, #Tigers, and #BlueJays. Source said Blue Jays are offering biggest contract.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 06:34 PM EST (#456290) #
If these reports are all true then it has to SUCK being Shapiro and Atkins.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 06:44 PM EST (#456291) #
Alright I took the bait and went to aggregator sites to see what the latest unsubstantiated rumours are:

Jays have 6 year offer out to Bregman. He wants 30 million/year. HOU feels the taxes he saves means they don't need to offer more than they already are. They're current offer is 6 years and 156 million (26/year) per Bob Nightengale.

Jays have been on Scherzer for 2 months per Feinsand and feel they are the favourites. I believe this reporter said the same thing about the Jays and Alonso.

scottt - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 06:44 PM EST (#456292) #
Yeah, and all of these guys have a ceiling around 150 innings and many won't reach that.

Most prospects don't translate their hitting to MLB. They are better than the guys in Buffalo, I'll give you that.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 07:37 PM EST (#456293) #
Bregman’s contract probably won’t age well, but he would help make the team exciting in 2025 at a minimum.

Bregman plus Scherzer sounds pretty good, if the Blue Jays can pull that off.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 08:13 PM EST (#456294) #
I guess the good news is that the unsightly Springer contract will be done right around the time a 6-year Bregman deal goes south.

FWIW, Springer had wRC+ results of 155 and 143 before signing in Toronto. The last two years Bregman was just 126 and 118.

Clement and his 94 wRC+ had 9 Defensive Runs Saved to Bregman's 6 in half the number of innings and added 6 more at SS in just over 300 innings.

So you're not gaining anything on defence for $28M/yr but the offence jumps from pro ably 95-100 wRC+ to 110-120 wRC+. Is it worth it?
John Northey - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 08:35 PM EST (#456295) #
Depends on who you think is more likely to hold onto their skill in '24 for '25 and beyond. Bregman's '24 was his 3rd lowest wRC+ at 118 (a 114 in his rookie season '16, and in '21 - '22 was 137, '23 126). Bregman is entering his age 31 season projected for roughly a wRC+ around 120. Clement just had his first full ML season at age 28 with a 94 wRC+, lifetime 81, projected from 93 to 103 (big range). I would hope Clement can duplicate or improve but to bet on a guy who just had his first full shot at 28 is a poor bet indeed. He ideally would be the backup for 3B/SS/2B who would get time elsewhere as needed as well.

I'm not excited about 6 years for Bregman - the last 2 almost certainly would be write offs, if not more. But for '25 and '26 he'd be a very solid addition. Maybe give him an opt-out after '26 and hope he takes it.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 08:36 PM EST (#456296) #
The projections have Clement at about 1.0-1.4 fWAR this year, with Bregman at about 3.4-4.1 fWAR.

So a potential difference of about 2-3 WAR between the two players (if you believe the projections).

But yes, the Bregman contract (and the Santander contract) could be cumbersome in a few years (maybe earlier than that).
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 08:38 PM EST (#456297) #
Bregman is about 3x the player Clement is offensively. Jays clearly are looking for offensive upside and are willing to overlook similar player values overall and sacrifice defensive value to ensure they get more offense into the line up. No other explanation to it imho...Bregman is 31 and a 6 year deal will hurt unless the FO uses the deferred shenanigans.

I don't think it's worth it if you can get the offensive bump from Alonso, but if there are no further offensive upgrades then I would prefer a deal for Bregman vs Clement at 3B.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 08:41 PM EST (#456298) #
The projections mentioned are based on less playing time for Clement (313-343 PA) as compared to Bregman (590-686 PA). So the difference in value is less than it appears from my first post.

I guess having Bregman play full-time at third base would free Clement up to be a useful super-utility player (or be traded).

Maybe the plan is to add Bregman and then trade some young players for a pitcher, as UO suggested the other day.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 08:42 PM EST (#456299) #
"(and the Santander contract) could be cumbersome in a few years (maybe earlier than that)."

13.7 million against the luxury tax for a 34 year old is not going to be cumbersome. What will the player qualifying offer be in 5 years? It was less than 18 million in 2019 and is now over 21 million...so 24 million or more?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 08:44 PM EST (#456300) #
I don't think you should adjust Clement's WAR projection to project higher WAR. It usually gets harder for players of his caliber to produce more if they play more. If the Blue Jays thought he could then they probably wouldn't be looking for a 3B. Just my two cents.

I do really enjoy Ernie Clement and have been on the band wagon from the beginning with 85 Blue Jay.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 08:46 PM EST (#456301) #
"I guess the good news is that the unsightly Springer contract will be done right around the time a 6-year Bregman deal goes south."

note, that this Springer deal doesn't actually seem to be preventing us from spending on a bunch of other big deals.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 09:01 PM EST (#456302) #
It hasn't stopped spending but they also feel obligated to play him every day and in a key part of the line-up while taking playing time away from potentially better options.

I feel like Barger may be ready to go off. He got off to a rough start in 2024 and you could really see that he was pressing. He should be more relaxed this year and the power and arm can be game-changing.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 09:15 PM EST (#456303) #
Corner OF last year:

* (CF Clase: 23pa, 186wrc+)
* Lukes: 91pa, 132wrc+
* (CF Varsho: 513pa, 99wrc+)
* Springer: 614pa, 95wrc+
* Schneider: 454pa, 80wrc+
* (CF Berroa: 45pa, 74wrc+)
* Barger: 225pa, 70wrc+
* Loperfido: 144pa, 61wrc+
* (CF Kiermaier: 217pa, 53wrc+)


was he really playing out of obligation though?
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 09:26 PM EST (#456304) #
Would you rather have Alonso 3/90 or Bregman 6/180?

In a vacuum I would probably say Alonso. But maybe Bregman is the player the team needs more right now. I suppose it also depends on whether Vladdy is getting re-signed. A lot of things are in flux for the Blue Jays right now.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 09:26 PM EST (#456305) #
Nope, not at all. If Loperfido, Schneider or Barger have it in them to outperform the incumbents I don't think this FO will prevent it from happening. It's tragic that everyone values a contract based on the back end. I wish there were such strong criticisms about Springer's contract when he signed or after his first year with the Jays.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 09:33 PM EST (#456306) #
Honestly greenfrog I just hope that the Jays speculated interest in these players is real and not BS. If they can sign any of Scherzer, Alonso and Bregman I will be happy compared to previous off seasons of failing to land big free agents and settling for marginal upgrades. If I had to rank I would prefer Alonso then Scherzer then Bregman.

I can see the Jays letting Vlad walk and going after Josh Naylor next off season or some other 1B type.

It will be a lot harder to replace Bo on the left side (offensively). I only see Rengifo as a plausible free agent next year for INF as everyone else will be mid 30s. Maybe the FO wants to sign Bregman to ensure there is enough offense from the left side of the INF in 2026.

greenfrog - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 09:40 PM EST (#456307) #
The next few weeks are going to answer the question we all have, namely, “can Blue Jays fans have nice things?”

Are we going to be a serious postseason contender in 2025? Or an “if everything breaks right” team (as explained by Michael)?
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 09:55 PM EST (#456308) #
UO, Roden might be the Blue Jays outfielder to watch in the second half of 2025. He recently turned 25 and he’s accumulated 286 PA in AAA. He might turn out to be better than the depth outfielders you listed (although Law’s interest in Loperfido has me curious about him as well).

I’m not a big Clase guy.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, January 29 2025 @ 11:13 PM EST (#456309) #
Marc, I actually respectfully disagree about Barger. To me, he looks awful in the outfield, had a ball go off his head over the wall. His arm is strong but not sure it’s all that accurate. At the plate, his discipline was erratic and the leg kick he uses in his load just is not sustainable. I was at Wrigley last year when he hit the big game tying home run late in the game and saw him up close. His body and game reminds me a little bit of a young Eric Hinske, except Hinske had decent plate discipline and had the fundamentals to play third base, at least until he didn’t. Barger I think is kind of a prime example of where the Jays player development has failed to develop a lot of fundamentals thus we have to spend huge in free agency to contend.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 02:15 AM EST (#456310) #
Marc, I actually respectfully disagree about Barger. To me, he looks awful in the outfield, had a ball go off his head over the wall. His arm is strong but not sure it’s all that accurate. At the plate, his discipline was erratic and the leg kick he uses in his load just is not sustainable. I was at Wrigley last year when he hit the big game tying home run late in the game and saw him up close. His body and game reminds me a little bit of a young Eric Hinske, except Hinske had decent plate discipline and had the fundamentals to play third base, at least until he didn’t. Barger I think is kind of a prime example of where the Jays player development has failed to develop a lot of fundamentals thus we have to spend huge in free agency to contend.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:59 AM EST (#456311) #
KLaw divides the 30 MLB team farm systems into seven tiers. Here are the AL East teams:

Boston - Tier 1
Tampa - Tier 3
Baltimore - Tier 5
NYY - Tier 5
Toronto - Tier 6

On a positive note, he says of Toronto: “I’m bullish on their 2024 draft class, and I’m even more bullish on their announcement that my former colleague when I was with the Blue Jays, Marc Tramuta, is their new amateur scouting director.”
Marc Hulet - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 07:33 AM EST (#456312) #
If I'm not mistaken, any adventure Barger had was in LF - a position he played only a handful of times prior to his first big league call-up. He was originally a SS then 3B and then started playing RF not long before the 2024 season.

Barger has fewer than 40 games of experience in the outfield but also gunned down a man at the plate with a 104-mph throw...

He is going to be your typical streaky power hitter at the plate and I've followed both Barger and Schneider since they were drafted. I have much more faith in the former than the latter although I agree that the failure risk is high.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 08:46 AM EST (#456313) #
Comparing him to Schneider is one thing, but do you think he should be playing over Springer?

I have faith in Loperfido as the best of Schneider, Jimenez, Loperfido and Barger.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 10:56 AM EST (#456314) #
I believe that Barger should play semi-regularly between 3B and RF while Springer sees decreased playing time overall 100-110 games unless he looks better in 2025) and more time at DH (assuming Alonso is a no-go).

Long-term faith in the young guys potenetial:
1. Jimenez
2. Wagner
3. O. Martinez
4. Barger
5. Clase
6. Loperfido
7. Berroa
8. Schneider
uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 11:04 AM EST (#456315) #
yeah Wagner and Jimenez definitely seem the safest.

the others are big hit or miss types. who knows if an of them turn out but there's real upside in most of them.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 11:27 AM EST (#456316) #
So where does Alan Roden fit among these young guys mentioned ? He's 25 so he should be given a look this season.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 11:51 AM EST (#456317) #
Yeah I have Loperfido as OF and Clement as INF to start the year on the team with Wagner as super utility.

I want to see Roden, Kasevichand Martinez continuing in the minors to replace the above players if they struggle.

This leaves no room for Jimenez, Barger, Clase, Berroa or Schneider and there's definitely pieces out there that you can get back for these guys with all of their control.

uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 12:05 PM EST (#456318) #
Roden actually projects the best of all of the young-ish guys this year, and the best career AAA line.

But it's one of the smaller samples above AA.

But he's probably my favorite of all of them because a) his hitting line is not just excellent but prettty safe and solid in the underlyings, and b) apparently he's a legit quality corner OF defensively.

He should probably have to earn it first, but I won't be surprised if he's the one of all the borderline guys that ends up legit deserving the most playing time this year.
uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 12:06 PM EST (#456319) #
Loperfido i only find interesting if it turns out he can actually play CF defensively.

because either way his hitting line isn't as good as the other borderline guys in AAA or MLB, and it's a very risky batter profile to boot.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 12:15 PM EST (#456320) #
His mix of defence, speed and power I find very interesting as well as some flashes he has shown. Apparently he has dramatically changed his swing this offseason. Probably gets a short leash. Of course he hits from the left side too.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 12:22 PM EST (#456321) #
Of all those players, my favourite is Roden. I thought he had a shot at cracking the MLB roster last year.

He recently had a glowing writeup on BA. A brief excerpt: “Few players in the minors show the elite plate skills Roden does. In 2025, Roden swung and missed at just 7.3% of pitches in the zone while playing at the minor leagues’ two highest levels. He rarely expands the zone and showed improved power in 2024, as evidenced by a 112.2 mph max exit velocity.”

BA also said he is an “above-average athlete.”
Nigel - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 12:23 PM EST (#456322) #
Jimenez would be the clear number 1 off that list for me: he's only 23 and in 200 MLB AB's last year put up .9 bWAR and .6 fWAR. His minor league hitting numbers tell a promising story of an offensive profile that offers a bit of everything and he can legitimately play both middle infield positions. Roden and Wagner would be next for me: older "prospects" offering advanced professional ABs (relative to the rest of that list) with a decent range of offensive skills and just enough defence to carry a position. The rest are lottery tickets for me (not uninteresting, but each has some major red flags).
uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 01:01 PM EST (#456323) #
A team of just all the borderlines could look something like this, with their combined projected wRC+ and their career AAA wRC+ in brackets:


* 1. DH Wagner (26, l): 117wrc+ proj. ----- (AAA: 137wrc+)
* 2. 2B Stefanic (29, r): 107wrc+ proj. ---- (AAA: ~135wrc+)
* 3. RF Roden (25, l): 108wrc+ proj. ------ (AAA: 140wrc+)
* 4. LF Schneider (26, r): 105wrc+ proj. -- (AAA: 138wrc+)
* 5. CF Lukes (30, l): 105wrc+ proj. ------ (AAA: ~120wrc+)
* 6. 3B Clement (29, r): 98wrc+ proj. ------ (AAA: ~120wrc+)
* 7. 1B Barger (25, l): 104wrc+ proj. ------ (AAA: 111wrc+)
* 8. SS Jimenez (24, r): 99wrc+ proj.- ----- (AAA: 113wrc+)
* 9. C Bethancourt (33, r): 77wrc+ proj. -- (AAA: ~110wrc+)

* X. UT Orelvis (23, r): 93wrc+ proj. ------ (AAA: 114wrc+)
* X. OF Loperfido (26, l): 90rc+ proj. ----- (AAA: 104wrc+)
* X. IF Kasevich (24, r): 83wrc+ proj. ----- (AAA: 116wrc+)
* X. C Heineman (34, s): 74wrc+ proj. ------ (AAA: ~100wrc+)

* X. OF Clase (23, r): 85wrc+ proj. -------- (AAA: 97wrc+)
* X. OF Berroa (26, s): 84wrc+ proj. ------- (AAA: 105wrc+)
* X. OF Schreck (24, l): 99wrc+ proj. ------ (AAA: n/a)
* X. IF McAdoo (23, r): 94wrc+ proj. ------- (AAA: n/a)
* X. C Sanchez (28, r): 75wrc+ proj. ------- (AAA: ~100wrc+)
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 01:12 PM EST (#456324) #
Roden (plate discipline), Clement (defense), Loperfido (defense and speed), Barger (arm) and Kasevich (elite defense) are the five that stand out with potential stand out skills.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 01:41 PM EST (#456325) #
I would personally ranked Roden second behind Jimenez and Kasevich right behind Orelvis.

I remember the first time I saw Roden play RF and I had it in my mind that it was a 1B playing out of position in RF but then he made a couple outstanding running catches and immediately changed my mind. He's like Varsho in the sense that you don't expect that kind of range and athleticism from someone with that body type.

I remain convinced that Kasevich is Ernie Clement... there's some impressive exit velos there but he just can't get much lift on the ball and the Jays org, generally speaking, isn't good at making loft adjustments for whatever reason... He's one of those players that you just don't notice on the field/at the plate, for both good and bad reasons.
Ryan Day - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 02:37 PM EST (#456326) #
Davis Schneider is only a year older than Roden & Barger and 6 months older than Loperfido and he's got 170 games in the majors as a roughly-average hitter - obviously with some extremely high highs and low lows. No one can deny he was truly horribly after May 2024, but he still finished with a better MLB line than Barger & Loperfido. (this doesn't really endorse anyone - they were all terrible)

I have no idea what Schneider will do in 2025, but he's been pretty consistently outperforming people's expectations. If you want to talk about "up side", he's shown it better than anyone.
bpoz - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 02:46 PM EST (#456327) #
These should be the players likely to be regulars if healthy. Kirk + 2ndC, Vlad, Gimenez, SS (Bo), 3B Clement, Springer, Varsho and Santanda. 9 players. 4 more to make 13. These 4 should come from the AAA young players mentioned. I will not pick a favorite even though I have a few. So Schneider and Loperfido if on the team Opening day and playing well enough to not be sent down should get 400-450 ABs for the year which is a good sample size.

With injuries and poor performances the 4 could end up as 7. I have seen Gurriel fail defensively in the IF and then move to LF. So someone could be V bad on D and be sent down. It could be Orelvis with bad D. He will get more chances because of his V good power.
soupman - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 02:47 PM EST (#456328) #
I’m more and more convinced with each passing day that Vlad is not re-signing.

If I was deciding on signing with Toronto beyond a year, I’d certainly like to know if the franchise player was going to be there or not beyond 9 months from now.


Glevin - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 03:13 PM EST (#456329) #
Loperfido has highest floor of those OF guys because he can play CF and can run. He doesn't need to be a great hitter to have value but needs to be better than he's been. I like Roden the most as he's just hit everywhere. Can easily see him as everyday player as soon as this season. Barger has a lot of upside but good chance he never puts it together. Clase is young and has raw skills but I don't think he's going to put it together. The issue with Schneider is that even if he's a league average hitter, as a LF that's just not good enough.
pooks137 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 03:42 PM EST (#456330) #
No one can deny he was truly horribly after May 2024, but he still finished with a better MLB line than Barger & Loperfido. (this doesn't really endorse anyone - they were all terrible)

Did the fans complaining last April that John Schneider, the FO and the analytics department were treating Davis Schneider as a platoon/part-time player when Vlad, Bo and the entire offence minus a hot Justin Turner were underperfoming for the 1st month of the season, ever eat crow?

For the record, I didn't see the Davis Schneider stock crash either. But I also wasn't as incensed at the time about lineup decisions.

Spifficus - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 04:48 PM EST (#456331) #
BA did a Blue Jays 2025 Top Prospects Deep Dive, which is interesting. It touches on quite a few things, including Roden's athleticism vs body type, and some Kasevich love. Also, there's a drafting recap that is not for the faint of heart. Overall, it's a good balance of pessimism and optimism that's worth a watch.
JB21 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:05 PM EST (#456332) #
Mad Max!!
JB21 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:06 PM EST (#456333) #
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/blue-jays-to-sign-max-scherzer.html
Katie - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:07 PM EST (#456334) #
Mad Max!

Heyman reporting Jays have Scherzer agreement.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:10 PM EST (#456335) #
Oh (wo)man this feels so good. I'm very happy about this :)
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:17 PM EST (#456336) #
1/$15.5m

Nice!

Now add a big bat and we can all feel good about the upcoming season.
uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:18 PM EST (#456337) #
really needed a top-end SP but also needed just another good SP was pretty damn important so this is solid.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:24 PM EST (#456338) #
If Scherzer is healthy coming out of ST, is the rotation

Gausman
Berrios
Bassitt
Scherzer
Francis

With Yariel in the pen?

Or maybe a six-man rotation including Yariel? (That would be interesting.)
uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:26 PM EST (#456339) #
what was Max's health situation last year exactly?
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:27 PM EST (#456340) #
I like the deal. No downside at all given the term, and I think Max might still have a little bit left in the tank. He won't be an ace or close to it, but could be a solid mid to bottom of the rotation starter if healthy. Adds depth where they desperately needed it.
Eephus - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:28 PM EST (#456341) #
Love this. I think considering his age and health questions (related to his age) if you get 120 innings out of Scherzer and he’s good to go playoff time, you’re very happy.

Plus he is seriously fun to watch. A+
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:33 PM EST (#456342) #
The Athletic article on the signing mentions “back, nerve and hamstring issues” last season and also:

“I’ve been able to find ways around (the nerve issue),” Scherzer told MLB.com in September. “And I actually think given an offseason to properly address the root of it and really address that, I don’t see that being an issue next year at all.”
Glevin - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:34 PM EST (#456343) #
Like this a lot. Plenty of upside on one year deal. Makes pen deeper as well. Need one more bat and were good to go.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:37 PM EST (#456344) #
Try to keep him healthy, then maybe get him a 3-4 inning stint in a WC series game (plus some outing in subsequent series after advancing). That would be cool.
Glevin - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:45 PM EST (#456345) #
Bullpen is now Hoffman, Yimi, Green, Yariel, Sandlin, Swanson and then a bunch of guys fighting it out. Very solid.
uglyone - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:48 PM EST (#456346) #
hopefully the current staff can be healthy at the start of the year and only run into injuries later, when hopefully guys like Tiedeman/Manoah/Bloss might be more ready to contribute.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:48 PM EST (#456347) #
He’ll be a good mentor and resource for the pitching staff.
Eephus - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 05:59 PM EST (#456348) #
Again I don't see Scherzer going from Opening Day to the playoffs (hopefully) without some bumps/rest in the road... he's older than me! (which I find delightful... can't say that about a professional ballplayer for much longer) but it's such a worthwhile gamble that even if it doesn't work, the intention is undeniably good. Plus, pushing Yariel Rodriguez into a swingman role (or potential shutdown relief option) is like two moves in one.

Another fun fact is that, should he take the mound in the regular season as a Blue Jay... he's probably a Top Ten pitcher to ever put on the uniform and throw a pitch. Top Five maybe? Seriously! Top of my head... Halladay, Clemens, Stieb, Phil Niekro, Jack Morris (meh)... Jimmy Key... David Price? Then we're into the territory of Carpenters and Frank Violas... this dude is a Hall of Famer and if he indeed has something left in the tank... giddy up. 
Eephus - Thursday, January 30 2025 @ 06:00 PM EST (#456349) #
(Apologizes to Tom Henke, who should also be on that list I mentioned above)
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