Jays have not won a series against a team that was ahead of them in the standings since taking 2 of 3 from the Pirates back over 2 months ago. Can we break that streak?

Alright here we go. I BOLDLY and STUPIDLY predict the Jays sweep the Nationals and then win 2/3 in their next series. I also predict them to be one of the busiest teams at the deadline, hooking up on a big deal to give up serious prospect capital for a Louis Varland type player (offense or pitcher with half decade of control). They shore up the bullpen and add a big bat while trading away Hoffman, Gimenez and Berrios. The rational works: no other team is willing to send back anything good for the poor Blue Jays players that have been tanking.

How would they convince someone to take on the bad contracts of Berrios or Gimenez you ask? Simple, they trade them away for worse contracts. Think Lindor and his full contract (will get bad at the end) as well as 1-2 NYM bullpen arms for Berrios, Gimenez and a good prospect like Nimmala.

Why the hell would they trade Nimmala to bring in Lindor who turns 33 in November and is coming off his worst season ever? His sprint speed has consistently declined going on ~4 straight seasons now. It is very obvious that he is losing his legs quickly, and this is an athleticism-driven player.

Nimmala could literally help the team in 2027 LOL. For peanuts.

Depending on whether you want to look at BR or FG, Gimenez alone is either worth as much as Lindor this season, or better than him. And he is 27 years old. So what are you even accomplishing here? You're dumbing Nimmala to trade a 27 year old with a bad contract for a 33 year old with an even worse contract, who isn't even playing better than the guy you are dumping?

Zero part of that idea makes any sense unless you believe that Lindor is a show-in to revert to elite performance.

I'll concede Nimmala is too high a price but Jeff Passan bluntly said Lindor is still a top player posting 5+ WAR season after season and he won't be given away without a substantial piece going back. TBH I didn't even look at his stats this year. What happened to him this year? He's on pace for less than 2 WAR...

I probably wouldn't do Nimmala in that trade, but I would definitely give up a a couple good prospects plus Giminez to get Lindor. He's still a good defensive infielder, and put up a .811 OPS last season. We're not talking about Jose Reyes here.

Scherzer activated, Fisher to bereavement leave (I presume its for a funeral, not another death in the family).

Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
·
10m
Addison Barger had elbow surgery today, was a repair rather than full reconstruction, so his timeline is roughly six months, said Blue Jays manager John Schneider.

Should be ready by spring training.
Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
·
6m
Jesus Sanchez will be at triple-A Buffalo tomorrow, all goes well he could rejoin the Blue Jays on Friday when Cardinals are in town.
Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
·
6m
Bad news on Yimi Garcia who continues to experience nerve/neck symptoms. He’s going to visit with another doctor to check for thoracic outlet syndrome.

Joe Mantiply is back throwing bullpens and Lenyn Sosa starts hitting live BP this week.

Good news on Barger

Expected (by me) news on Garcia

Mantiply I'd been wondering about

Lenyn who? /s

At this point I'm very curious who the Jays get back in deals and who goes. Bieber and Gausman have to be locks to be traded (baring a miracle winning streak - oh that would be nice wouldn't it). Hoffman, Scherzer, Varsho all look likely if the right fit is found. Gimenez I'd be mildly surprised (I see him as an offseason deal to make room for Nimmala). I could see Kasevich being an extra tossed in to a deal to try to get a better prospect from someone (close to majors, supposed to be a top defender), Pinango wouldn't shock me either to be in a trade or Schneider - if another club thinks they can fix Schneider I can't see the Jays saying 'no' if it gets a bigger deal done. I'd be curious if Valenzuela might be available for the right price too, but that would need to be a high price indeed.

Sportsnet 590 The FAN@FAN590

"If I have to trade Kirk and Nimmala to get a cleanup hitter, I'm doing it... Going into next season, Vladdy needs help."

@SNJeffBlair and Kevin Barker discuss what the Blue Jays should be willing to part with to get Vladdy Jr. a running mate for 2027 and beyond.

That's exactly what I would want to do. Trade more WAR total for a single real clean up hitter.

11 pitches for six outs....thats not exactly working the pitcher.

11 pitches for two innings? And people are complaining that the fans have given up? The roster gave up before the fans did.

Nigel, this team just needs to unload our best prospects for Lindor and/or Bichette and we'll totally turn it around.

Not sure why there’s more talk on Jays twitter about trading Kirk rather than Valenzuela. One of them would be selling high, and it wouldn’t be Kirk. Also Nimmala might be the best position player the Jays have had in their system since Moreno, and he’s on the path to AAA. He’s someone the Jays should be holding onto.

I’m also not seeing a logical “clean up” hitter that’s available right now. If you want to absorb a bad contract like Devers and hope it ages well (it won’t) then that’s probably their best shot, and no way I’d touch that contract unless they take at least at one of the Jays bad ones (Gimenez, Berrios, Santander).

11 pitches is just brutal and part of the feeling the team has been given all year which is opposite of last year. Last year, Jays were so hard to get out. The pitcher had to battle, everyone could get a hit. This year, nobody is a tough out (literally not a single player) and nobody can hit. Just an incomprehensible shift.

This will seem like damning with faint praise but isn’t meant to be - Urias is a pretty serious upgrade over Sosa. He can actually hit a bit.

Looks like he can field a bit too. And his bat somehow projects to be about league average. Not sure why he hasn't been given more time so far, especislly given hiw often they were using sosa.

Dan going on about how incredibly rested our bullpen now is...


...frustrating.

""If I have to trade Kirk and Nimmala to get a cleanup hitter, I'm doing it... Going into next season, Vladdy needs help.""

A. that's stupid.

B. Like who?

You'd never know the Jays are winning 3-2 right now by the mood here. I get why, but geez. 2 2/3 by Scherzer 1 run, not bad but the 4 H 3 BB were bad. Urais and Straw both upping their value as backups for a contender, if the Jays can get a decent lottery ticket for them they should, or mix them into a bigger deal. Contenders can always use half decent backups.

Catcher is the one position where you can't have 1 guy playing most of the games.
The Jays have 2 decent catchers but maybe no backup once one gets injured, so let's trade one of them?

They could be rotating guys at DH next year or they could sign someone.
When did they ever trade for a DH? Zack Collins? That worked out well.
Maybe Encarnation before that, but they acquired him as a corner infielder in 2009.
He didn't become the DH until 2015, after they traded away Adam Lind.

Springer, Turner, Belt, Tellez, Morales,

Having to use Miles to get to Rogers doesn't feel incredible.

Hoffman just threw 15 pitches, 8 of which were swinging strikes. Just disgusting.

DH is a minimal worry slot for me. You can flip flop Kirk/Valenzuela there, give Vlad time there, etc. The OF is the big question to me. No one in the OF right now impresses me fully - Sanchez & Lukes, as I type, are the only ones over 100 for wRC+ (one can't field, the other was amazing but slumped defensively this year), Pinango & Varsho are in the 90's, Straw & Schneider in the 60's. Clase 153 but back to AAA (25 PA so yeah), Barger was at 0 in 28 PA. Springer dead on 100. Not impressive by any stretch.

I suspect the plan is to do a mix/match at DH unless Pinango or Keys really impresses in spring/offseason (offseason means they work hard and show something to make the Jays feel they are ready for a breakout). Plus, of course, Santander if by some miracle he is healthy.

As to crazy trades - I assume SF wants to dump Devers who is owed $225 mil for 2027-2033 - his 125 OPS+ isn't worth that, but is a lot better than what we have right now, and can back up 1B/3B potentially. To balance that out - Gimenez is $70.7, Berrios $49.4, Santander $52.1, Yariel Rodriguez $14 mil = $186.2 That would be if SF just really wants to dump Devers which they might. Lindor in NY is owed $170.5 for comparison (stories are that he and Sosa do not get along) if trying to do bad deal for bad deals. Bo is owed $84 mil potentially over the next 2 years. Lots of interesting 'take my bad deal for yours' potential there.

Nice win. Nats pulled a Jays and couldn't score early and let the Jays stay in it and bullpen was fantastic.

I think the front office has been fine this year but one of the few mistakes they've made (obvious at the time too) was sticking with Sosa for so long. Not bad cause Urias is a great player but because Sosa is just so bad that there was no way they should have ever given him 84 PAs.

They're buying.

I'd actually be fine buying if Vlad started to break out. Like, if in the next 4 days, Jays go 3-1/4-0 and Vlad hits 3 HRs and 2 2Bs, then I'd say Jays have a good shot at the playoffs because AL is so weak but without that, I just don't see any path forward. I am completely fine with Jays doing a mixed buy/sell where they trade expiring contracts and go for longer-term guys. Jays need to bolster their farm not just to have a better system but because they need a farm system to trade for major leaguers.

I think buying is insane.  The team has the worst offence in baseball and can't even win a series.  They're far more than a hot Vlad away from contention as they have to leapfrog 6 teams just to get the final WC spot.  Absolutely nothing about their performance over 2/3 of a season suggests this is remotely possible.  And even if they did make it, their playoff chances are also terrible, likely on the road as the lowest WC seed.  Sell.

They can trade Varsho and get more playing time for Sanchez/Pinango with Lukes/Straw in center.

Scherzer still looks done. 75 pitches to get 8 outs.
I still don't see how they get through 5 starts if they trade Gausman or Bieber.
Yeasavage isn't a lock for 5 innings. Miles has probably thrown too much already.

The AAA depth is Bloss, Tiedemann, Dallas, Estrada.
Bloss is still injured.
Tiedemann is just starting his rehab.

In September, with an extra arm, they'll probably be fine, but August is a long month.

Look at the free agents likely available to sign in the off season. Look at the returns that teams got for comparable players at last year's deadline. Industry sources have said that a return similar to 2024 (Loperfido, Wagner, Bloss) is realistically what Toronto may get for its saleable players this trade deadline.

The team is bad. You're right.

The first 2/3 they were bad. You're right.

Sell! This is not so clear. You won't likely get better this year or next by selling. This isn't the NHL where you get huge future value with top draft picks in trades. You're not going to get any good major leaguer back in these trades and you won't get any high grade prospect.

You make leapfrogging 6 teams sound impossible, it's really not that difficult as half of them will likely drop out of the race on their own. Look at the history of baseball, all teams go through win streaks and losing streaks.

Detroit
Baltimore
Seattle
Houston
Minnesota
Cleveland

You really think they can't pass these teams with the 75 games remaining on the year???? None of those teams look stronger to me and they've all played their best baseball already while Toronto has not. The Jays will easily catch them if they don't sell.

The teams that worry me are BOS if they add more pieces at the deadline and NYY if they add more pieces. If they don't add major pieces then I can see them both sliding down further.

You really think they can't pass these teams with the 75 games remaining on the year????
Yes, I really think that.  Mathematically it's possible but absolutely nothing about their 2026 performance suggests this is even remotely likely.
Fair point about selling but no way do I think they should buy.  The farm is weak enough at the upper levels as is. 

There's buying and then there's buying. Should this team go for rentals? No. But they have long-term needs so I don't mind trading for them now as opposed to the off-season. For example, trade Varsho for prospects and trade prospects for a long-term CF option.

And yes, as of now, the Jays have no shot at the playoffs but if Vlad got hot, yes, I think they would. 5 games back with a lot of bad teams ahead of them isn't much. I don't think it's likely Jays offense (especially Vlad) get hot in next few days but it is possible.

Apart from his talents which are considerable, Arjun Nimmala represents a golden opportunity for the Jays to tap into the significant south asian population in GTA. I'd be shocked if Nimmala is traded in any deal.

There are 55 games left, not 75. That’s a big difference

Also, an article in the Athletic (Tim Britton) talking about Gausman’s trade value put it at a pair of prospects sniffing around the top 100. That’s under the assumption that Skubal and Ryan are also not on the market, which would cause the price to be lower if that ends up happening.

Linder was also on the list and compared to the 2015 Tulo trade (the Mets have to eat a bad contract to get any interesting prospects)

So pretty good points in my opinion from everyone.

55 games left not 75. That's a big deal.

If Ryan and Skubal and Abrams et all are not traded and you have teams willing to overpay for your players where you can get anything close to a top 100 prospect back then that changes the calculus for me. You make the trade, period. Top 100 or near top 100 guys are typically guys that will play within 12 months like Rojas and Stephenson (if he didn't get injured). Trade any of the Hoffman, Varsho, Gausman, Bieber etc types for that player, no question. I jsut don't think any of those players will be available to the Jays for their rentals.

Glven makes really good point. When I advocate to Buy it's not for rentals it's for controllable pieces. I like the theoretic ideas of trading Kirk + + for a controllable top 5 line up hitter. Pipe dream? Perhaps. Buy if it improves you the rest of this year and next year. Do not buy rentals. Thought that was kind of obvious already.

Another good point about Nimmala, massive market there for that guy so I would expect him to be a huge part of the core starting next year some time.

This team needs to eat bad contracts and improve. I'd be ecstatic if they did anything like this:

TOR/SF

Trade for:
Devers
Arraez

Trade away:
Bloss
McAdoo
King
Keys

or

TOR/NYM

Trade for:
Bichette
Minter

Trade away:
* honestly have no ideas what NYM would want back


The idea is use the Jays financial weight to take on bad contracts from other teams and trade away your "worst" but still valuable prospects giving the other team lots of control.

Perry, Stanifer and Ricky Tiedemann should all be available to be up by September.

I've seen people mocking Devers to Jays and I can't think of many players I'd like less. He's a DH who looks to already be declining and has like 7 years at $32M a year left. Hard hard pass.

Passan thinks Varsho will have nice market and Gausman will get a haul back. We'll see.

I completely agree about Devers.  The Jays don't need more corner infield / DH types - they need productive, 2-way MLB outfielders, arguably a middle infielder, and some young pitching.  They also have CBT constraints as others have discussed on here recently.

How many players will the Blue Jays sell?

Jeff Passan
Quite a few. I think Kevin Gausman, Daulton Vartsho and at lest a couple relievers. The Jays are open to listening on everyone but Louis Varland. Based on his last two starts Shane Bieber could fit in somewhere.

Mitch Bannon
The Jays will sell, moving significant pieces off the MLB roster, but still bring in a big-fish starting pitcher with multiple years of control. They need an addition like Jose Soriano, Reid Detmers or Nick Lodolo to compete in 2027, and can get some of that work done early.

If Devers' downsides are too costly to stomach then change to Bichette or Tatis Jr. The qualification remains:

- Overpaid player who will decline over the rest of the contract
- Team that wants to bring down payroll or get something before Opt-out (speculation for NYM/Bo)
- You get someone not named Okamoto who can provide offense
- You keep your best prospects in house since you're penalizing yourself for eating the contract

There's no "middle-bat" players that will be available without these warts. Matt Olson and Jose Ramirez aren't being traded. Lindor, Devers, Tatis Jr and maybe Bo or Trout can give you offense at the cost of $$$$ and tax burdens.

Tatis Jr is an interesting one - since his PED/injury season he has a 119 OPS+ but 4.9 bWAR/162 despite mostly being a RF who also has played CF and 2B. His 107 OPS+ this year with 1.4 bWAR in 105 games isn't impressive though at age 27 so he still has years left in him that could be productive. He is owed $271.7 mil from '27 to '34. Can't imagine he'd be a 'lets dump him' situation from SD - their GM isn't that dumb, but if the new ownership wants to cut payroll anything is possible. Far more underwater are Manny Machado (age 33 season, owed $273.6 mil for '27 to '33 101 OPS+ 0.8 bWAR this year) and Xander Bogaerts (age 33, $178.2 mil for '27-'33 78 OPS+ 1.1 bWAR).

Lots of bad contracts out there. If the Jays were willing to eat some they might be able to get talent back, but there is no shortage of dead deals here too, gotta figure Rogers has an upper limit on how much they are willing to eat. Trout is a pipe dream - the Angels won't trade him, plus he has full no-trade protection and I doubt he'd want to come here unless the Jays were back in the World Series somehow. There are lots of bad deals for bad deals possibilities though. If a Tatis deal is possible then go for it if it doesn't cost any top prospects (Nimmala, Parker for example I wouldn't give up, but 2nd tier guys like Pinango, McAdoo, Clase, Shreck I'd give up in a second).

Yeah I think "your B prospects and salary relief for their overpaid player" is the model I want to see.

There's just no way this team will be better in 2027 with Marginal returns from rentals. They need a significant bat added to the line up so they can have Vlad, Okamoto and new significant bat which they can then build around with their upcoming guys like Parker and Nimmala while keeping Kirk and hoping the ghost of Santander can replace Springer.

Dalimon, can you explain to me why it is so prudent in your mind for the Jays to pick up dead-weight contracts which will completely collapse any future flexibility the team may have, while the Mets on the opposite end want to dump those bad contracts? Don't the Mets also have tons of money, with dreams of competing in 2027 and beyond? So then why would one be racing to dump bad contracts, while the other team is apparently sprinting to acquire more of them?

I literally can't see what your thought process is at all or why you deem this to be such an amazing idea in your mind. This team needs more young, cheap, productive talent. It doesn't need more 30-34 year old declining "past stars" on idiotic contracts. I think that your stance appears to be: "well, they're already in payroll hell, so they may as well just YOLO it". But this strategy never works, and several teams have tried it in the past.

Lets say they trade for Lindor. Do you not foresee a possibility where next season is much the same for him as you see this season, and you end up with over $50M in salary going to two infielders (Lindor and Gimenez) who only produce a combined ~3-4 WAR between them? That would be really, really, really bad. You understand this, right? What happens if that occurs, and Vlad only bounces back to a 2-3 WAR level himself? You are now looking at $90 million dollars being spent to produce a combined ~5-7 WAR. And this isn't some "far out" scenario: it basically assumes that Gimenez stays the same, Vlad bounces back but not fully, and ~33 year old Lindor's decline stage is real. The team isn't contending for anything under that scenario unless they somehow unearth the most dominant rotation in baseball from out of nowhere.

Best Batter free agents this off season:

Jazz Chisholm
Taylor Ward
George Springer
Brandon Lowe
Randy Arozarena
Jorge Soler
Dalton Varsho
Gleyber Torres
Trent Grisham
Rhys Hoskins
Joc Pederson
Luis Arraez

Suffice to say there is not very much there...besides Lowe there is nothing there. You're going to need to trade to improve this line up whether you like it or not.

Lindor is being floated around, but I think Tatis Jr. would be a more realistic and better option since he's in his prime years. I doubt the Padres would trade him unless the Jays gave up Parker and/or Nimmala, though.

dalimon, it's pointless to argue with them. Followers of this team (or maybe just Toronto sports teams in general) just seem to fall in love with prospects and salary cap games when things don't go their way with their teams. I guess they're annoyed the Jays are one of the big spending teams that wants to build excitement and have a winning team on the field as soon as possible. Who needs Fransisco Lindor or Fernando Tatis Jr when you can have Will Wagner and Scott Wiggins?

Q1. "Dalimon, can you explain to me why it is so prudent in your mind for the Jays to pick up dead-weight contracts which will completely collapse any future flexibility the team may have, while the Mets on the opposite end want to dump those bad contracts? Don't the Mets also have tons of money, with dreams of competing in 2027 and beyond? So then why would one be racing to dump bad contracts, while the other team is apparently sprinting to acquire more of them?"

A1. I can try my best but consider I am looking at a bad situation and offering ideas that are solutions. You don't like those solutions but at the same time you're not offering any you're just complaining. "They're bad, sell!" Tell us something practical. It's like looking at Vlad and saying "he sucks and he's overpaid, get rid of him." How are you going to fix that?

To answer your first question, there are rumours and speculation that Bo Bichette may opt out of his deal. Since he may opt out the NYM would save salary for the 2027 season but they would get nothing of value for his departure. If they have a sense he will opt out then they can trade him and get something of value since he will leave anyway. That answers your question as to why they would want to let go of that player while Toronto would take him on. You're combining my post today about Bo with my post yesterday about Lindor, but we already talked about Lindor and you've already pointed out he's declining rapidly and I've already responded in agreement with your point about Lindor. Again, why would Toronto take on a dead-weight contract from the NYM who want out of it? It's simple, Bo is on a short term deal that Toronto can afford, he improves their line up and NYM don't want him to walk for nothing. Done. Also - look at that free agent list for this summer..

Q2. "I literally can't see what your thought process is at all or why you deem this to be such an amazing idea in your mind. This team needs more young, cheap, productive talent. It doesn't need more 30-34 year old declining "past stars" on idiotic contracts. I think that your stance appears to be: "well, they're already in payroll hell, so they may as well just YOLO it". But this strategy never works, and several teams have tried it in the past."

A2. No, you're wrong. My idea isn't that trading for declining players is some brilliant idea. It's that the alternative is Vlad, Kirk, Okamoto and then wait 2 years for Parker and Nimmala and you still only have 5 guys that may be good. You seem to have an idea that the Blue Jays can get "young, cheap and productive talent." That's not something I think they can get. There's cheap and productive talent like Pinango, Schneider, Schrek, Keys...I don't want to see 2/3rd line up featuring these guys because the team will suck. They're not good enough and I will take Devers, Tatis or Bo on a bad contract over those AAAA types 8 days a week. If you think the Jays will sell and somehow get good young controllable players like Nimmala and Parker equivalents back then you're out to lunch. Those players only come by via trade if you're trading Louis Varland or if you draft well. There's ZERO scenario in my mind where you get those types of players back. There's been 1 trade in the last three deadlines where a solid prospect was included and it was for Mason Miller. To answer your question, taking on bad contracts with declining players is better to me than running out more AAAA players. In none of my suggestions do I include core prospects like Perry, Nimmala, Parker, Stanifer, Tiedemann etc. They all remain in the organization precisely because you're taking on bad contracts so you don't have to include your prospects. I'm exhausted of watching AAAA players that can hit (sometimes) but can't field or can field brilliantly but can't hit.

Take out Lindor as we discussed yesterday and comment on the drawbacks of Tatis, Bo or Devers.

Tatis, salary increase + all of your top prospects is better than a lower payroll, no Tatis and all of your top prospects. The worst case would be to have lower payroll next year, all of your top prospects a year away or more and 5 or 6 more AAAA guys added to the 40 man.

Petey, nobody is "falling in love with prospects". Your suggested plan has been tried repeatedly in the past by "teams with money" and it has almost always concluded in complete collapse. Teams like the Yankees and Phillies used to do this all the time (ie: just keep loading up their overpaid and aging roster with more overpaid aging players). Even the Yankees don't operate this way anymore.

You can't even answer a basic question: if Lindor and Bichette are these amazing pieces, why don't the Mets just keep them and add on top of them? Why aren't the Mets buyers at the deadline? The Mets also have money and they also have intentions of winning. So why would they be wanting to dump them for "B prospects"?

I don't want them to do this because the risks of this blowing up in your face are very real, and the end result is catastrophic. As has been proven numerous times now. The teams that are actually winning these days do not get to those results by making stupid decisions.

Also, just look at the history of the deadline. Which prospects traded for marginal rentals have turned into solid major leaguers over the years? How many prospects have the Yankees and Twins given up for solid rentals and they've mostly amounted to little value long term.

Look at the prospects the Jays have traded away for rentals and ask yourself how they're helping their teams. I think of players like Kloffenstein, Robberse, Watts Brown, Austin Martin, SWR, Loperfido, Wagner, Bloss...

These players are going to give you depth not some cheap, productive and controllable players to add to the core. If you get 6 of these guys back by trading away Gausman, Bieber, Hoffman, Varsho...you're going to have to remove a bunch from the 40 man roster because there's just too many of them.

Maybe, maybe you can get a top 100 player for Shane Bieber if a team is really desperate. If that was possible I'm sure we would have already seen trades consummated. The value of a top 150 prospect is so much higher than I think some of you think. Bieber, if he had 2 years left on his deal, okay, then I could see a solid player coming back.

Metafour, what are you even talking about?

Aaron Judge- terrible contract
Max Fried - probably terrible contract
Tarik Skubal - wherever he goes will be the worst contract ever signed
Juan Soto - terrible contract and LA, NYM and TOR were fighting each other for his services
Kyle Tucker - Terrible contract
Bryce Harper - Terrible contract
Kyle Schwarber - not a great contract
Trey Turner - terrible contract
Zach Wheeler - terrible contract
Austin Riley - terrible contract

Teams competing and winning divisions are filled with terrible contracts because you need to take chances. Brother, the Rays and Guardians thread is on another site...

Q: What single move could the Blue Jays make to strengthen next year and forward? Trade for Reid Detmers?

Feinsand: Detmers or Jose Soriano are the exact types of players the Blue Jays tend to look for: controllable pitchers who can help them beyond this season. Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber will be free agents after the season, while José Berríos will still be rehabbing from elbow surgery. That leaves Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage and Cody Ponce as the 2027 rotation, so I wouldn't be surprised if Ross Atkins tries to acquire a controllable starter this week like he did a few years ago with Berríos.

https://www.mlb.com/news/trade-deadline-2026-questions-answered

metafour. which Yankees teams are you talking about? The ones from 2002-2024 in which they went to the playoffs every year except for....two?
As dalimon alluded to...we are not talking about the Rays or Guardians here. We aren't even talking about the Tigers or Cubs. The Jays are in the upper stratosphere man. Enjoy it.

"Aaron Judge- terrible contract
Max Fried - probably terrible contract
Tarik Skubal - wherever he goes will be the worst contract ever signed
Juan Soto - terrible contract and LA, NYM and TOR were fighting each other for his services"

Yes, the biggest players are overpaid and I am fine overpaying for a 6 WAR player. I don't want to pay $32M a year for a 2 WAR player with 7 more years on his contract. Those are very different things. You can't get a 6 WAR player without overpaying. You can get someone of equivalent value to Devers for much less money/resources. Like, Wheeler 3/$42 a year. That's a lot but he's been a top-10 starter in baseball. I'd much rather pay $42M a year for Wheeler than $24 for Berrios.

Okay interesting but let me further your point Glevin. Would you rather pay 32 million for a 2WAR player with all of the value coming from the bat (OPS+ of 124 and climbing) or play Keys or Valenzuela at DH instead for super cheap?

I'd argue you're far better off wasting your money on Devers (or ideally better like Bo who is on shorter deal) who instantly adds 22HR and 60RBI totals to your line up compared to another struggling player or hopeful AAAA guy. In the worst case, in my opinion, you have a terrible contract but you'll still be lower in payroll than this year since you have so much $$$ coming off the books and I just don't see where the hell they're gonna spend that money to keep this payroll as high as it is.

And lets just remember it's going to cost you close to $23,000,000 to qualify Daulton Varsho this off season. An extra 9 million for Devers isn't the worse thing and if you can swap him out for someone like Bo or Tatis instead I think you come out ahead in budget, offense and overall line up. Are you extracting value from the contract? Hell no but that's damn near impossible ever since they signed Vlad to his deal.

I’d be happy with a star but I think that’s super unlikely. What’s more likely is a Colby Rasmus-type deal, IMV.

Also, dalimon, dont forget that anyone the Jays get could get flipped in the winter for another player. It doesn’t have to be the case that the pieces the Jays get now directly fill their holes right now.

FanGraphs just did a thing about the top 50 trade values and had him at 22.

The main trade deadline goal should be to add a centerfielder, either a player in AAA who can get a cup of coffee down the stretch this season and be a 2027 starting CF option, or a big league whose shine has come off recently. I'm not sure what names would be available in those two groups, but I think it's imperative they add someone. Obviously the other goal, as always, would be to add controllable pitching depth.

As far as taking on a bad contract, it doesn't make sense based on where the Jays are. This is a last place team in the highest CBT threshold with limited minor league players on the verge of reaching the Majors. They don't need to add another massive overpaid contract like Lindor or Devers to add to Vlad, Berrios, Santander, and Gimenez. They need more minimum earning players with upside who can contribute, or controllable arbitration eligible players (this will require subtracting from the minor league capital, so they have to be careful who they give up).

I think I'm realizing that I just value the Blue Jays rentals and non- "A" prospects a lot lower than the majority here. There's nothing coming back that can help as a starting 9 player next year in my opinion.

I highly doubt they will find a starting OF better than Myles Straw (back up) up) without giving up a young player with control and upside like Barger or Spencer Miles or by trading away a good prospect which defeats the purpose altogether.

If you don'y want to be saddled with bad contracts and run a payroll of 250,000,000 next year then be prepared to get back more Pinango's and Loperfido's who can shoot it out with Jonatan Clase and Barger to see who can start next year.

I hope Andrew Painter's value has dropped enough for the jays to acquire him on the cheap.

That's the type of player you trade for if the other GM is dumb enough to trade him for a rental. Dombrowski just might fit that mold if you could trade Gausman, and Hoffman together in a package for him but even that just seems like a long shot to me. The Phillies know Painter is back to throwing 99MPH. They're tracking this starts in the minors. They know he's under control through 2032.

It took Rojas to get Varland and you're probably starting with Gausman, Hoffman and a decent prospect going the other way to the Phillies as well as some type of salary relief to get a front of the rotation controllable SP for 6 years...

Andrew Painter is down in AAA tinkering with his arsenal and has had two promising starts in a row, but his pitch and underlying data from this season really doesn't scream "future front of the rotation starter". He throws hard, but he really doesn't miss many bats. Its been better over these two most recent starts, but those two starts still "only" produced a 28% and 24% whiff rate. A future top of the rotation starter should be producing whiff rates in the ~32%+ range in AAA, unless they are going to be consistently elite at inducing ground balls and bad contact (and Painter hasn't shown this skill either).

Calling him a front of the rotation SP is a massive stretch at this point. Sure, he is 23 and has pedigree so maybe he unlocks something new, but you can only look at what he is showing right now and to date. His fastball has actually graded as a below-average pitch (in terms of Stuff+) so the fact that he throws hard doesn't mean as much as it normally would.

I'd still be interested in acquiring him, but this is isn't some "ZOMG we have to send the Phillies everything and even then they'd be stupid" type talent.

Fun fact for you all: Jake Bloss was posting a better overaLL Stuff+ in AAA this season.

Something happened last night that brought to mind the trade deadline - the 2020 trade deadline. Traded for Johnathan Villar. One of the few trades I did not like, thought Villar was a bad make-up player. He was not good as a Jay. We sent the Fish Griffin Conine, big power, huge strikeout issues.

Going into last night Jhoan Duran had only blown 1 save, when Brandon Valenzuela walked him off early June. After homering earlier in the game, Conine's single walked Duran off a second time.

Conine has exceeded expectations and might well be actually valuable if he could stay healthy, which he's had trouble doing. 146 OPS+, 95th percentile ISO, even has managed to sneak his K% under 30%.

metafour, do you have any proposals or specific ideas that are actionable in theory? What would a realistic trade proposal look like for you. Which players would the Blue Jays give up and receive? Or are you only waiting for others to post delusional ideas for you to critique? Just curious.

Here's a trade idea from Dan ZIPS; Gausman to Zona for Druw Jones and Mitch Bratt

To me the Jays best bet is to see if a contender is interested in a package deal. We have 2 solid starters (playoff tested, former Cy contenders) in Gausman and Bieber plus a solid reliever in Hoffman (horrid March/April but has been damn good since, and outside of one HR did great in the playoffs). We also have 2 defense first CF'ers - one left, one right - teams can pick which fits their needs best. Only Hoffman has any commitment beyond 2026, with Straw having team options for '27 and '28 if someone loves him.

For a contender that holds a lot of potential to get over the top and deep into the playoffs. That holds a lot of value. I see a match with the Phillies as they are an older team (just one regular in their lineup under 28, 5 at 33+) and their CF has negative bWAR this year (Justin Crawford a 22 year old rookie, 3 time top 100 prospect but never top 50, but over 800 OPS in the minors the past 3 years before reaching this year with a 642 OPS). They have a strong top 3 (Sanchez-Luzardo-Wheeler) in the rotation, but Nola has a 78 ERA+, a rookie Painter had a 64 before demotion, and the next 2 most starts are Tim Mayza (opening) & Taijuan Walker (since released). Boy could they use a mix of Varsho-Gausman-Bieber. Duran is an excellent closer, Mayza a good setup LH, Kerkering has had a good year held up by a crazy 228 babip, and Bowlan has been solid. But boy they could use a solid setup guy with history like Hoffman.

So yeah, there should be a fit there - solve all their core needs - CF with defense & pop, 2 starters, a solid setup guy. Now, is that enough to convince them to give up their current CF (the 22 year old) or Painter (top 10 prospect twice, but dropped to #32 pre 2026). I'd take either for that package of players that could be all the difference between going deep in the playoffs or out early. The Phillies should be desperate for that deep run as they are near the end of their window (lost WS in '22, lost NLCS in '23, lost NLDS in '24 and '25) so I see it as a 'now or never' time for them so taking a big risk should be on their agenda.

I was bored so I went on the Fangraphs prospect board and sorted by centerfielders with a 2026 ETA and at least a 45 or 45+ FV. That matches the timeline the Jays are probably looking for, plus a reasonable FV number as I doubt a rental is getting a 50+ FV, though I'd love to be wrong on that. Looking at contending teams or teams likely to be buyers only, I get the following names:

Kevin Alcántara (Cubs)
Spencer Jones (Yankees)
Jacob Melton (Rays)
Jhostynxon Garcia (Pirates)
Enrique Bradfield Jr. (Orioles)
Kahlil Watson (Guardians)
Jett Williams (Brewers)

Of that group, the only one considered "low risk" is Bradfield. I'm not sure who the Jays will acquire to play CF, or if they even a CF at all this deadline, but the above names are the types I would expect them to look at. Maybe others who are no longer prospects but don't have much experience (ex. Denzel Clarke, though the A's aren't contending so they have no reason to sell low there).

hypobole - not a bad one for the Jays. Jones was a top 25 prospect, but fell the past couple of years and is a CF/RF (mostly CF). Bratt has good surface stats but his K/9 dropped sub 9 this year in AAA which makes me mildly nervous. But get both in a deal? Yeah, the Jays should take that.

"Here's a trade idea from Dan ZIPS; Gausman to Zona for Druw Jones and Mitch Bratt"

Yeah that's about as much of a "good return" that I would expect with Toronto's rentals this trade deadline. ARZ's #8 prospect (from Toronto his mom works with my wife) and #24 prospect. One #40 value and #45 value. That's very much in the same category of Rj Shreck and Charles McAdoo. Meh, I'd rather keep Gausman and the rest and collect the draft pick compensation.

"Kevin Alcántara (Cubs)
Spencer Jones (Yankees)
Jacob Melton (Rays)
Jhostynxon Garcia (Pirates)
Enrique Bradfield Jr. (Orioles)
Kahlil Watson (Guardians)
Jett Williams (Brewers)"

Of this group its more of the same as above except Bradfield Jr and Jett Williams. Baltimore won't trade to Jays. If The Jays could get a 2022 1st round draft pick who's at 17HR this year and ready to be called up then I'd be VERY happy. I doubt the Brewers would move their top 5 prospect though. The last time they moved a prospect graded anywhere near that they got some guy back with a year of control named Corbin Burnes.

I appreciate the effort though SK and I hope I am wrong and the FO is able to get a stud like Williams out of Milwaukee.

That hypothetical Arizona trade return is trash. Druw Jones is just a reclamation project at this point; he doesn't have any real value. Bratt has well below average stuff and throws like 90-91 mph. He basically needs to pitch perfectly to be a #5 starter.

Fangraphs has Bratt at #19 and Druw Jones at #27 in the D-Backs system. That's not getting them Gausman lol.

Gausman should return a package centered around a Top 100-125 prospect.

"Gausman should return a package centered around a Top 100-125 prospect."

I hope I'm wrong and the Jays can get that but I think you're severely overvaluing Gausman's value.


Consider that Fangraphs has an article with some simulations for proposals and a pitcher like Alcantara who has a full year more control than Gausman gets you the #5, #14 and #19 prospects from the Cubs system who are all in A ball.

Here's something interesting, in the exact same article they propose a Jett Williams + for Freddy Peralta trade which would make a Gausman for Williams trade seem possible.

Given the limited pitching out there, as always, but 1 giant fish potentially there in Skubal it should be interesting to see how much happens last minute. The Jays Gausman & Bieber are good, but not Skubal good. If Skubal isn't on the market then things get really good for the Jays as contenders will then get desperate.

The Jays traded a borderline Top 100 prospect for a rehabbing Shane Bieber just last year (Khal Stephen), and they received a borderline Top 100 prospect (Jake Bloss) for rental Kikuchi in 2024 who had a 4.75 ERA at the time.

I'm simply going off of actual recent trades. I've already explained that Gausman's underlying data suggests that he is pitching very similarly to how he did in 2024-2025. He has in fact accumulated 2.5 fWAR to date for this reason. This is a clear ~#3 starter with playoff experience, he isn't returning scrap-heap reclamation projects (Druw Jones) or Charles McAdoo's.

He is on pace to finish with ~3.5-3.8 fWAR this season. I don't know why anyone would assume that he has only marginal trade value. Proven starters of this caliber always return real packages at the deadline. He is also incredibly durable.

Jake Bloss was ranked 11th in the Astros organization to begin 2024 then ballooned to top 5 after a short stint in the majors. He wasn't a legitimate top 100 or fringe 100 prospect which is why Houston had to include two more players.

Shane Bieber got a better prospect out of Toronto for Cleveland and it's been widely said at the time that Toronto overpaid other teams like Boston to make the deal happen.

Gausman has struggled with command and consistency in June and July and he has a ton of innings on that arm from the last two years. You're going to need a perfect match for a team to see him as the final missing piece to a World Series run in order to get a top or near top 100 prospect back.

You need to look at more than two trades the Jays made to get a better sense. Kikuchi BTW had very good peripherals that Gausman does not have. We've both given examples of trades that favour a better or worse return. Nothing to do now but wait and see what they get for him if anything.

Bloss was absolutely a fringe Top 100 prospect when traded and in fact still ranks as a fringe Top 100 prospect on multiple lists even though he is coming back from TJ surgery and had "bad" results in AAA. You are outright wrong here. He literally ranks #101 on FG's current updated list even though he has barely pitched in 2026. He ranks #87 on the TJStats Top 100.

Saying that the Jays "overpaid" for Bieber and therefore that return doesn't count isn't an argument LOL. That actually proves my point: there aren't enough quality SP's that will be traded in order to fill every team that actually wants one. Do you think that there are 10+ Gausmans that are going to traded? No, there aren't.

Kikuchi had WORSE peripherals than Gausman has today. What the are you even on about?

Kikuchi: 3.98 xERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.43 xFIP, 2.2 fWAR
Gausman: 3.96 xERA, 3.58 FIP, 3.83 xFIP, 2.5 fWAR

Kikuchi had a better K and BB rate, but a noticeably worse HR rate. You are grasping at straws my friend. Both Kikuchi and Gausman were pitching much better than their ERA's indicated. Gausman also has a better & longer track record than Kikuchi did, and he also generally pitches longer into starts.

In 2024 the Tigers traded Jack Flaherty who was on an expiring contract and had a 2.5 fWAR at the time of the trade to the Dodgers for a package centered around Thayron Liranzo, who ranked #73 on the FG Top 100 and #87 on BA's Top 100. Flaherty was pitching better than Gausman at the time of the trade, but he had a considerably worse track record.

There is no wrong, bud. This is the internet and the more authoritative you present your subjective opinion the less convincing it becomes.

Telling someone they are wrong before immediately needing to re-qualify one of your players stats as "bad," as if the stats are somehow being misread for Bloss in AAA kind of sums up your reasoning don't it?

If you're wrong about Gausman it will re-enforce the popular opinion of most people grading his value right now. If you're right it will be a surprise and we can say that even a bling squirrel finds a nut, perhaps.

Red Sox got Ponced. Needed hitting so traded one of their good young pitchers for Curtis Mead. His 2nd PA got hit by a pitch and removed an inning later. He's got a broken wrist.

At least they traded an injured pitcher, so they're just back to square one.

For the Sox, at least it happened before the deadline rather than a day after.

Andres Gimenez still available.

Metafour, this bantering back and forth is pointless. I hope you're right and Jays get really good prospects back. It's not worth arguing the values of these players which we will find out soon enough anyways.

This team has really blown it so far this year, let's all just agree on that. At least we have Da Box still.

Looks like Bieber doesn’t want to get traded either.

Might as well keep Bieber for the rest of the season as the team will need someone to eat innings. I can't imagine any GM just watched that start and is prepared to give up anything of value for him.

Were those walks ump calls or ABS challenges?
Technically it makes a difference. But right now 6 BB, 3... 4? Bases loaded is out of baseball territory next year, not just not traded.

Shane Bieber in his last two starts before tonight gave up one run in 13 innings. There were six hits off him in those 13 innings.

So some of you think a GM would look at tonights mess, ignore the last two starts, and say I am not interested in that guy. Meanwhile around 18 teams are looking for starting pitching.

Bieber is not as good as his last two starts and not as bad as this one, but s*it happens. There will still be interest in him.

Brendan Little, eh?

Bieber couldn't hit the side of a barn today.
6 walks in an inning is a franchise record.

It probably affects the return.

Having interest in Bieber and giving up anything worthwhile in return for him are two different things, though. He was injured most of the season and has had more bad starts than good since he’s come back. I doubt the Jays were getting a great return regardless but not his performance since coming back certainly hasn’t improved those odds. Hope I’m wrong on that one.

I don't think performance will hurt as much as say getting shelled because it is clearly an aberration and he usually has great control. I am sure Jays could get something interesting for him.

Rain delay probably screwed him up.

Starting pitchers have thrown 3.1 innings over the last two games. Thats a lot of innings for the bullpen to cover. I think there could be a couple of pitchers on the way to DC if they can get there for tomorrows day game.

With Yesavage going tomorrow they better have a few guys up. Little & Van Eyk could be down for Dallas & Estrada I'm guessing. Estrada might not have been down long enough short of an 'injury' to a pitcher, so maybe Chase Lee (the other guy on the 40 man, Yariel isn't nor is SWR).

Bieber this season (counting tonight's start):

31.1 IP, 5.74 ERA, 6.34 FIP, 18 BB, 22 K, 7 HR

Even before this start his FIP was 5.82. Also (prior to tonight's start) he had the worst Stuff+ and Location+ of his career so far (obviously SSS). Not sure how the stuff looked tonight as I didn't watch but location clearly wasn't there.

Someone will definitely trade for Bieber if the Jays are moving him, but I'd be shocked if they get anything interesting back for him unless a team is valuing past performance extremely high. Would love to be wrong though.

Part of why I'm hoping for a package deal - if you are a contender with rotation issues Gausman/Bieber could solve those, even if Bieber keeps having issues. A contender might even put Bieber on the IL to stash him until September then use him as a 5th starter, ready to be a long man in the playoffs/insurance if a starter goes down.

Dalimon… I couldn’t disagree more with some of your posts lately. Why on earth would the Jays trade for Bo? I think if the GM did that it should be immediate firing… his contract is absurd, there’s a chance he opts out and you want the Jays to trade for that? Mind blowing honestly.

The front office didn't think that Bichette was worth it in the offseason, but now that they are 10-games under .500 and Bichette is having his second worst season ever, they have decided that they'll want to trade prospect(s) to pick up the $84 million he is owed over the next 2 seasons. Makes complete sense.

Anyways, I'm pretty sure that tonight's game kinda solidifies the idea that this team is in fact not going to be buyers lol. For those select few who were still of that opinion.

Obviously you'd have to have an agreement in place with the player to not opt out before trading for him. I understand I'm in the minority with preference for ownership to eat bad contracts to preserve prospect capital while improving the starting 9 significantly. I just don't see what young and good player you get back with any of your rentals. If I felt it could be done I also would side with the majority and prefer to trade the rentals away for these incoming players that will improve the team, but again I don't think that's realistic.

"Looks like Bieber doesn’t want to get traded either."

Haven't you heard? Bieber, Gausman and Hoffman will net us a nice haul of borderline top 100 prospects who can play LF CF and RF for us next season while we watch Van Eyk and Chad Dallas roll through the 4/5 spots of the rotation and Brendon Little as our set up man.

It's a very obvious business plan to carry out for a team that has sold out the stadium for the next 2 months and wants to sell more season's tickets. If only this were true and billion dollar companies ran baseball teams only to appease the TV fans.

So with Vlad being pulled for hamstring tightness, does he go on the IL? Do you opt for the 10 day even if he might only be day-to-day just to be extra safe and give him a break on the hope it helps him recover his back or other things given where they are in the standings and what his offense has been like?

Obviously if he really is severely injured you have no choice, but if the removal was more precautionary and if in the playoff hunt he could play do you go differently due to where we are?

Also does that impact the selling or not?

Bieber hurt his trade value but Hoffman and Springer's are shooting up. I get the idea of trading for Bo back when the Jays has a chance to contend but this is a guy making $42M a year who has a 90 WRC+. Why would the Jays want him? He isn't a prospect or a long term piece and he's insanely expensive.

Looking at Shane Bieber's Baseball Savant page, it appears as though he has lost considerable movement on his change-up, slider and knuckle curveball since he returned to pitching (with the Jays). His arm slot has also dropped since he was with Cleveland. Without that late, hard bite that he used to have on these offspeed and breaking pitches, it's hard to see him bringing much back in a trade. I still remember "Shane Bieber" days - watching Bieber pitch as an activity when he was a pistol. Hard to give up hope on that arm.

I would still give him a one-year deal with incentives (and perhaps some options) to see if the pitching lab can fix whatever it is that's causing this problem. Perhaps he will just leave for some other team that can offer him a pitching witch.

RE Vlad - I would lean HARD into a IL stint. There's every reason for it and not a one against it. Even if they think it' say, a 3 day thing

It's sad that it happened because Vlad ran out of the box and got an RBI on it.

Apparently, Orioles are open to trading Cowser and Holliday. Holliday will cost an arm and a leg but Cowser is an interesting post-hype target. Was a 4 WAR player 2 years ago and has battled injuries and swing issues since. He's a bit of a mess now but another team might be able to fix that. He plays a very good CF and has a high floor and high upside.

Any prospect evaluator will tell you that the gaps at the bottom of the Top 100 prospect list are much narrower than at the top and, accordingly, the gap between #100 and #150 is also quite small. The Top 100 lists are useful due to the shorthand of marking the game's "best" prospects and everyone (including my own) desire for lists.

Whether we get Fangraphs' or Baseball-Reference's or TJStats' #90 or #110 or #130 prospect for Gausman doesn't really matter to me, as I'm more curious to see that prospect's scouting report and proximity to the majors.

I don't see anyone trading anyone for Gausman who would displace Parker, Nimmala, Perry or King at the top of the Jays' prospect lists. If Atkins got a return comparable to Perry or King, that'd be a very good return, IMO.

Given Gausman's desire to remain in Toronto, I wouldn't be opposed to the Jays signing him to an extension before the deadline for a year plus an option if the salary worked.

Some mock trades because they are fun and silly.


Gausman to Cubs for Jefferson Rojas
Hoffman to Pirates (eating salary) for Murf Gray
Bieber to Braves for Owen Murphy
Springer and Varsho to Cleveland (eating salary) so many options here for a fit. Maybe a couple of Daniel Espino/Khalil Watson/Justin Campbell/Khal Stephen/Andrew Walters etc..
Tyler Rogers to Dodgers for Zach Root
Gage Stanifer for Brenton Doyle

I think Jays want to get another long-term starter like Soriano or Detmers I just think trade deadline is worst time to do that.

Colton Cowser is a decent target acquisition. He's a few years younger than Varsho and the same basic model, albeit not quite as good.

I've seen Doyle's name out there for awhile and Jake McCarthy's name mentioned and a suggested Keys for Doyle

The Phillies make a lot of sense as a trade partner. They need relief help, an outfielder/centerfielder, and a back end rotation piece. They are likely seeing the end of their competitive window so Dombrowski might be desperate to make a gamble trade in a market that doesn’t have many difference makers. I know a Varsho/Hoffman package was suggested somewhere and that really does make a lot of sense for the Phillies.

I hate the Phillies system though. Wood and Miller are great and Renteria is a big upside guy but system beyond that is weak and not very interesting.

It's happening ladies and gents. After an uphill battle yesterday on this thread and a call out by another poster...I think I am simply processing that there is only one way to go in the next week.

I'm glad I've got this message board for some clear-headed discussion and polite call outs. Chris_Jays, your call out in particular made me think long and hard..."what exactly am I proposing?" It's a message board and so easy to throw every idea here into words but I gotta hold myself to a higher standard as set by some older Beauxites.

I still don't like the predicted returns for any of their rentals but yeah, going for a big contract like Bo, Lindor etc is probably a bit too crazy of an idea...absolutely the worst idea actually. I just wish I knew what the heck this team could do to improve the offense for next season.

Now that I am "processing" the poop-iness of this team (why did I renew my season tickets last week???)...what would I like to see happen?

*Keep Gausman if you can't get near top 100 prospect or someone that can be in the starting 9 next year. Try to resign him as a 5th starter or John-Smoltz his role to the bullpen.

*Jeff Hoffman trade for best package you can get and replace with free agent pitchers.

*Tyler Rogers same as Hoffman.

*Shane Bieber keep and see if you can improve his performance to warrant a QO or team friendly extension.

*Daulton Varsho try to put him in as a throw-in to any of the above send-offs to sweeten the return.

*trade Alejandro Kirk

* send Springer to a contender for any value

* eat Gimenez's salary and trade him

Let us see Kasevich, Schreck, SWR, Rodriguez et all fill in the rest of the way.

****Do not take back and AAAA guys. Go for A guys with higher upside if necessary.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/top-50-deadline-trade-candidates.html

Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates

11. Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays ($23MM salary, impending free agent)
12. Daulton Varsho, CF, Blue Jays ($10.75MM salary, impending free agent)
13. Shane Bieber, SP, Blue Jays ($16MM salary, impending free agent)
19. Jeff Hoffman, RP, Blue Jays ($11MM salaries for 2026-27)
47. George Springer, DH, Blue Jays ($22.5MM salary, impending free agent)

Others
Blue Jays: Nathan Lukes, Max Scherzer, Jesús Sánchez, Tyler Rogers

Springer has 10/5 rights so my gut feeling that he'd accept only specific trades (right location, full-time play).

Chad Dallas is in Washington. No move announced yet.

Unless someone wants Springer as a full-time player I can't see the return being enough to be worth dealing him. He is very popular with fans and players it seems so I'd need a good package to dump him. Same for Gausman. Lord knows what teams will offer though - with so many in contention and so few decent players available in trades - appears the Tigers are close enough they'll keep Skubal and try to make it (5 out of division lead, 3 1/2 out of WC) and might even try to add on. Just 4 teams in the NL are out of it (5+ out - Reds, SF, NYM, Rockies with the Reds on the cusp at 5 out). AL has Jays-A's-KC-LAA in the 'out of it' category, Jays on cusp at 5 1/2. Everyone else should be fighting to make it. So 8 teams are sellers, 22 are buyers or potential buyers. SF, NYM, Jays have expensive known pieces, LAA never sell anything, Rockies are barren, so it'll be interesting to see how it goes. Good time to be a seller if you must be.

Feel like Springer is either going to Boston (location) or Houston (past history). Maybe there’s another team out there but those two make the most sense based on his NTC. I doubt the Jays are getting much but he’s a playoff difference maker as recently as last season and has been heating up. Teams will value him.

Since June 28th, Springer is hitting .299/.347/.537 for a 146 wRC+ and a .239 ISO.

He will have plenty of interest, its just a question of whether he will accept a trade.

CJ VAn Eyk optioned for Dallas.

Keegan Matheson on Toronto Sports Rush gives Springwe a 2% chance of staying, Gausman 5%, Bieber 10%, Varsho/Scherzer 20%, Hoffman 50/50. No talk of returns.

Springer was already at a 114wrc+ over the 150pa before that "since June 28" sample, and is now at a 125wrc+ over his last 225pa 9since May 18th).

He's been back for a while now. He projects at 116wrc+ the rest of the way, similar to what he projected at before the season, and he's a proven playoff performer. There's a solid chance he ends up with the best wRC+ on the team by the deadline, even though it's only 5 days away.

Nobody will be paying for that 146wrc+ hot streak bat, but he should still be maybe the best pure bat rental at the deadline.

Current combined projections for possible trade bait:


DH Springer 168pa, 116wrc+, 1.9war650
RF Lukes 154pa, 107wrc+, 2.5war650
LF Sanchez 135pa, 107wrc+, 1.9war650
2B Clement 205pa, 100wrc+, 2.9war650
CF Varsho 196pa, 99wrc+, 2.7war650
SS Gimenez 186pa, 89wrc+, 3.0war650

UT Schneider 44pa, 102wrc+, 3.0war650
OF Straw 70pa, 73wrc+, 0.9war650



SP Gausman 10gms, 5.9ip/gm, 3.92era, 3.80fip, 3.2war32
SP Bieber 11gms, 4.5ip/gm, 4.24era, 4.18fip, 1.5war32
SP Scherzer 12gms, 3.4ip/gm, 4.71era, 4.77fip, 0.8war32

RP Hoffman 21gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.16era, 3.27fip, 0.9war65
RP Garcia 7gms, 1.0ip/gm, 3.74era, 3.78fip, 0.0war65

"I hate the Phillies system though. Wood and Miller are great and Renteria is a big upside guy but system beyond that is weak and not very interesting."

I doubt they'd trade Miller (who hasn't played in 2026), and they'd probably aim higher for a more controllable or better piece if they were trading Wood or Renteria. Beyond that, yes the Phillies system doesn't look all that appealing. I believe it was Mitch Bannon who recently suggested a Varsho/Hoffman for Crawford trade, and that as a framework might make some sense for both sides. In that scenario the Jays would have to hope they are buying low on Crawford (rather than 2026 being a sign that he isn't very good) but when the only 2027 CF option anywhere on the roster involves picking up an $8M option on Myles Straw, that's when you need to take a gamble or two.

What the heck was that challenge by Kirk? The ball was 3 inches inside, exactly where he set up. And then there are obvious balls like the one to Pinango earlier that don't get challenged. No wonder they swing at everything if everything looks like a strike. Yeah, hyperbolic, but the jays are 3rd in MLB chasing pitches.

If the Jays hang on to win this series and the Reds beat Cleveland tonight, the Jays are 4.5 out.
The Tigers may trade their ace, the Orioles spent most of the season behind the Jays in the standings, the Mariners also can’t hit, and the Astros are just as bafflingly bad as the Jays.
Sorry. They aren’t going to be rushing to trade Gausman, Springer and Bieber.

"Jays have not won a series against a team that was ahead of them in the standings since taking 2 of 3 from the Pirates back over 2 months ago. Can we break that streak?"

Yes, hypobole, the Jays can and the Jays just did.

Maybe they just needed to sacrifice Vladdy's hamstring to the BABIP gods.

Petey: These are the current FG play-off odds:

Jays: 6.3%
Guardians: 47%
Tigers: 31.2%
Orioles: 19.6%
Mariners: 57.9%
Astros: 33.7%

Again, this still isn't anywhere near as "close" as you seem to think it is.

The Jays will have their own internal projections which I'm sure aren't going to be that far off from FG.

What's the point of arguing this? Akin to arguing someones religion is wrong and yours is right. Ain't gonna convert them.

Yesavage's numbers weren't eye-popping today, but he was both efficient and effective shutting down the majors best offence.

the playoff odds never make a whole lot of sense to me tbh.

fact is one hot streak gets them in.

Playoff odds take into account remaining strength of schedule as well as the projected performance of the teams moving forward. Sure, one hot streak gets them in which sounds simple, but how often do bad teams go on long hot streaks? The FG advanced stats clearly believe that the Jays record (9 games under) is indicative of their actual ability. In other words, the stats suggest that they aren't a secretly good team who just so happens to be getting unlucky so far. This type of data goes into the rest-of-season projections.

The point is: its a hell of a lot more predictive than simply suggesting that because they are 'X' games behind some other teams that it is therefore a toss-up as to who will ultimately make the playoffs at the end.

Has anyone looked at the upcoming schedule yet? After the Houston series the Jays play 17 straight games against: the Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays. That 3-game series against the Astros prior to those 17 games is on the road, and the Astros are currently 7-3 over their 10 last games and they have the best hitter on the planet right now.

The Jays really don't have a favourable upcoming schedule to suggest that they are likely to pull off this huge win streak. Lets say they go 2-1 against the Cardinals and bring themselves to 8-games under .500. Even if they go 10-10 over those 20 games, they would still be 8-games under .500 and we would be on August 23rd. 13 of those 20 games are also on the road, by the way.

Ah memories. Thomas Pannone called up by the Brewers. Santiago Espinal released by the Rangers.

Hey, I didn't say they were good memories

Depends what you're looking at of course.

Fangraphs Depth Charts still project the Jays with the 6th most war in baseball the rest of the way, 4th most in the AL.

we know what this team was capable of doing last year even without Cease or (this) Varland or Rogers.

Is the hot streak unlikely? sure.

Do i think these jays are more capable of that kind of hot streak than the other wild card competition? you betcha.

One reason to keep Varland

MLB Now@MLBNow

"They desperately need bullpen help."

@CY24_7, @StevePhillipsGM and @Feinsand react to Twins GM Jeremy Zoll's comments stating that they'll be buyers at the Trade Deadline.

Pannone pitched 49 games for the Jays in 2018-2019.

Since then, he missed the 2020 season, spent 2021 in Triple-A with Anaheim, split 2022 between Triple-A Boston and Korea, split 2023 between Triple-A Milwaukee and Korea, with one major league appearance, spent 2024 in Triple-A split between Iowa and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, didn't pitch in 2025 (AFAIK) and spent 2026 in Triple-A with Milwaukee.

Nice to see his perseverance rewarded with (hopefully) another major league appearance.

I mean, you are practicing nothing but wishful thinking. This Jays team hasn't won more than 4 games in a row this season, so nothing indicates that they are "more likely" to go on a big win streak than other WC competing teams. They still have a very pedestrian offense, and BABIP'ing the worst pitching staff in baseball (the Nats) to a series win really doesn't suggest otherwise.

I'm pretty sure that the Astros and Guardians have the easiest remaining schedules in baseball by the way, and Seattle also has an easier remaining schedule.

Again, the big thing here is the 20 games after the St. Louis series. They play zero bad teams over that stretch, most of those 20 games are on the road, and most of those teams are going to be clear-cut buyers at the deadline. The Yankees, Rays, Phillies, Cubs, and Red Sox are all theoretically going to improve their teams this weekend. Even the Astros are expected to be buyers now that they have gone on a 7-3 run.

So if you are Atkins and Shapiro today, you have to make a decision very soon knowing that those 20 games are coming up. What happens if you decide not to sell, and you end up sitting 15 games under .500 after those 20 games?

The Jays don't play a bad opponent (the Royals) until almost the end of August.

You're acting like you've never witnessed a 5gm gap closed over a 2 month period.

But you know you've witnessed that countless times. You've witnessed that kind of lead disappear in a week, many times.

This Jays roster on paper is still a very good one, very capable of one piddly hot streak. It would be more surprising if they went the whole year without one solid hot streak, tbh.

For me it's not about the wins, it's about them looking different as a team and they don't really. Obviously Springer is hitting and Varsho isn't as useless, but they got extremely lucky today getting a bunch of bloop hits and finding holes. They're bound to get better luck there, but that isn't enough to turn around the season. If they sweep the Cardinals, maybe but not selling expiring assets to make a foolhardy run at a playoff spot you likely aren't going to get is one the dumbest and destructive things a team can do. Jays can give themselves some nice pieces for the future and passing up on that for a 7. 3% chance of making the playoffs is exactly why the Angels don't have Junior Cameneiro right now and also didn't make the playoffs.

what are the odds, do you think, of one of the pieces we potentially get back this deadline being a core piece of a future world series winner?

A lot better than their chances of winning the world series.

As usual ugly, you are channeling what I’m getting at.
I just think the absolute certainty that the team is going to jettison players is premature.
It gives me an excuse to enjoy my extra innings package by catching the Guardians-Reds game tonight. Go Reds.

Definitely higher than their current playoff odds. This came up on I think Jays
talk Plus the other day. About 2/10 of the prospects traded at the deadline end up making it.

On top of that, remember that Colabello and Goins were starters in 2015. Last year we had Ernie, IKF, Lukes and Little on the roster. They were all waiver claims or minor pick ups, but played big roles for the run.

what was their definition of "making it"?

I would say zero. Because if they do sell, their priority would be what most any teams priority would be in our situation and that is shedding salary.

Won't make fans happy, but fans ain't paying the $34 million overage tax.

Pretty sure the fans did come out and pay that tax actually.

My question exactly that nobody has answered. They think we will get an Addison Barger type or some other young player who we can control for 6 years and will be in the starting 9, batting in the top 6 spots.

Let's say it will take a paltry 84 wins to get into the last wildcard spot this year. The Jays would need to go 35-19 to reach that mark. That's a .648 winning % which means that the Jays would have to be better than any team in baseball has been this year. Their best month this season, they've had a .517 winning percentage. Last year, when they got hot in May and became best team in league, they had a .606 winning percentage from May on so the Jays would have to go from being bad to being better than they were last year. It's possible I guess but it's so unlikely and going for this tiny sliver of hope would be beyond foolish.

Dalimon5 What was your question? And who are "they"?

Realistically, they will get a fraction of what they got in 2024.

Kikuchi->Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner
Jansen->Cutter Coffey, Eddinson Paulino, Gilberto Batista
Yimi Garcia->Jonatan Clase, Jacop Sharp
Nate Pearson->Yohendrick Pinango, Josh Rivera
IKF->Charles McAdoo
Trevor Richards->Jay Harry
Justin Turner->RJ Schreck
Trevor Richards->Jared Serna

They need starting pitching, a DH (preferably a top left bat), more outfielders, more relievers, etc...

I guess, Ironically, we're seeing waves after waves of prospects...

The Nats is the best offense in baseball and, as it's often the case, it comes down to the top 4 hitters.
 

NaeNaeTakes just posted mock trades for the guys he thinks they move. His idea here is to approximate the realistic value he sees coming back for each player:

Gausman to D-Backs for 2B/SS Kayson Cunningham (18th overall pick last year out of HS)

Varsho to Astros for RHP Jackson Nezuh and RHP Jagger Beck

Hoffman to Phillies for CF Griffin Burkholder (63rd overall pick in 2024 out of HS)

Bieber to White Sox for RHP Gabe Davis

one measly 8-2 run (or better) and all that math goes out the window. They've only had one 8-2 run (or better) this year, but had 4 last year.

An 8-2 run would mean they would need to go 27-17 the rest of the way, a .613 win%. They would need multiple 8-2 stretches to just get to 84 wins

Wonder if we'll ever really know what happened for a dude to so completely fall apart. Has to be something more than the injury but maybe not, whatdoIknow.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/angels-release-alek-manoah.html

They've only had one 8-2 run because they aren't a good team. Not going on winning streaks doesn't make it more likely you are going to go on one in the future, it makes it less likely.

Cunningham is the D'Backs #2, #89 overall.

Nezuh's the Astros 13th - kind think that's low but I know nothing about Beck.

Burkholder is the Phillies #12but the scouting report on Pipeline is... meh. I would NOT trade Hoffman if that was the best offer on the table.

Davis is Chicago's #19. The report isn't bad but I don't know if it's the kind of guy that persuades me to deal Bieber.


Not the sort of list that raises my enthusiasm to sell.

But we know that this team is better than they've played. That's obvious.

I think it’s obvious that they are not good. Worst offense in the sport. 30-45 vs teams above. 500. -60 run differential. 7th worst record in the league.

This team is not like the 2025 team, they are like the 2024 team.

My question was the same as Ugly's: "what are the odds, do you think, of one of the pieces we potentially get back this deadline being a core piece of a future world series winner?"

I think where your opinion lies on the "sell/they can't make it" vs "they don't sell/try your luck," depends on the received value coming back. If you think they can get back quality players that can be upgrades over the players you got back in 2024 then you sell. If you think you will get back more of the same that you got in 2024 or even worse back then you don't sell.

The frustrating part is arguing back and forth if they are good enough to make the playoffs or not. The real question is what can they get back for their rentals and is it good enough? I don't think it will be but others do. If the FO makes the trades then it's probably because the offers were good enough. If they don't then the opposite.

One thing is for sure, everyone agrees the team has been bad and has slim chance to make the playoffs. That doesn't mean you should sell if you're getting back more Pinango's.

Re Marlins:

"There have already been reports that they’re open to offers on catcher/designated hitter Liam Hicks. Today, the trio of Ken Rosenthal, Will Sammon and Katie Woo at The Athletic report that Miami will at least listen to offers on controllable bats, including shortstop Otto Lopez, second baseman Xavier Edwards and outfielder Heriberto Hernández. The Athletic’s report suggests that pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Max Meyer, Eury Pérez and young catcher Joe Mack are largely believed to be off limits"



They have several hitters that would fit nicely with the Jays the next few years, even if Lopez isn't THIS good. It doesn't mention Cassie but I assume he's effectively off limits too. Lopez, Edwards...wonder if they'd let you have Conine back?

Heriberto Hernández would be nice to get - wonder what they want? Maybe a 3 way trade so we send off some vet to a contender, they sent the Marlins what they are after and we'd get a LF who can hit and is RH (poor defense though so a platoon of him and Pinango would make our pitchers cry).

It sounds, from the online tea leaves, that the Jays are mostly after pitching despite that being their strength. Guess we'll see. I'd be chasing OF'ers myself, see if you can get Justin Crawford out of Philly, or Ryan Waldschmidt out of Arizona (seems a pipe dream, but who knows?).

"My question was the same as Ugly's: "what are the odds, do you think, of one of the pieces we potentially get back this deadline being a core piece of a future world series winner?"

I answered Ugly 2 posts and 39 minutes before you posted that no one has answered your question. I don't think The FO will concentrate on getting the best quality possible if they sell, shedding salary will be their focus.

I know that's not popular and not what i prefer they do, but that's what I think the FO will do.

keep seeing speculation about listening to offers on Varland. I'm not emotionally ready to argue for doing that but I do have the strong view that you don't trade more than one from Varland/Rogers/Hoffman.

Seattle seems best equipped to blow them away on Varland (start with Kade Anderson if you want to keep talking)

The Dodgers could build around Mike Sirota (long term CF if he pans out) and River Ryan. But I'm not sure how many others have the talent and the desire to pull it off.

It's hard to draw any grand conclusions from an Angels trade, but the relatively light return for Chase Silseth and Logan O'Hoppe isn't the best sign for the reliever market.

Of course, even Hoffman is a different calibre reliever, but it may indicate that the odds of a something like an opportunistic Fisher deal in a hot reliever market are even smaller than we thought.

Before that trade, my dark horse prediction for the deadline was going to be that the Jays dealt Fisher for an upper minors bat without great numbers, but whose swing they thought they could fix, similar to what they seem to have done for Valenzuela.

Fun fact: In six games with the Twins, Tommy Nance has the same WAR as he did in 32 games with the Jays this year. That's Baseball Reference WAR. By Fangraphs WAR, he has more.

Since no one regrets how Nance's Jays tenure went and his trade, and I'd go so far as to say it is close to the best realistic outcome when purchasing a 33-year-old Triple-A reliever who hadn't pitched in the majors in more than a year at the time and had no real track record of success, this is much less frustrating than looking at what Eric Lauer did last night.

I wouldn't read anything into angels trade because
1) Angels are incompetent
2) O'Hoppe is one of the worst players in baseball and making decent money.
3) Silseth is pretty good but he's a middle reliever who is pretty consistantly in the 3.90 FIP area and has 0 career saves.

I think it's going to be a very strong sellers market. There Are only 9 teams in baseball who are 4.5+ games out of the playoffs and most of those teams don't have a lot to offer (exactly why they are so bad). Every other team is within 2.5 games of the playoffs.

The 2024 Tommy Nance pickup can be viewed as a sliver of hope for the final two months of 2026. Where the opportunity to be unconventional and give some fringe guys some run can sometimes uncover some future big league role players.

I distinctly remember Nance's acquisition. After trading away some of their MLB arms at the deadline such as Kikuchi, Garcia & Richards (and being hurt by the injury bug), Tommy was acquired in a rare post-deadline swap because his main asset was "never appeared on a 40-man roster in 2024", making him eligible to be acquired as a warm body with a right arm.

Thinking back, those two garbage time months also gave us the wonderful burning-bright-but-only-for-a-half-season experience that was Bowden Francis pitching a CGSO bid week after week (and an Adidas commercial).

If "core piece of a World Series contender" is the expectation for a trade deadline pickup, then teams should never sell at the deadline. The point is to add to the farm system, shed salary, and give playing time to younger talent in a lost year. Maybe you get lucky one year and get a Teoscar, or maybe it's a 2024 type of deadline where you add useful prospect depth, but keeping veterans hoping for a miracle doesn't seem like a smarter strategy than selling for the best talent you can get in return.

There are many teams that aren't big payroll teams and didn't make the world series last year where selling players they don't want or need would always make perfect sense.

But yeah maybe the low chances of getting significant talent back should make fans of big payroll recently contending teams less eager to fire sale.

Trading players that don’t figure to have a role with the team beyond 2026 is not a fire sale. Every player the Jays are rumored to be trading are either expiring contracts, in their early to mid 30’s, or both. I’m not sure what the contention to this strategy is. Keep everyone and win 76 games? Or trade them and win 72 games but have more minor league depth, maybe some 2027 roster options, and possibly no 1st round pick penalties (depending on how much they sell)? That seems like a no brainer to me.

If the Jays were a .500 team right now with a middle of the pack offense, then absolutely buy. But nearly 10 games under with the worst offense in the league? What exactly are you preserving by keeping everyone and/or buying? The 2025 victory lap is over. That season will be forgotten about soon enough. Move forward.

Looking back at 2021-2022 where most prospects will have made majors by now, here are some prospects or young/unproven major leaguers traded in deadline deals who are decent or better major leaguers or good prospects still.
2021: PCA, Joe Ryan, Ezequiel Duran, Luzardo, Jansen Junk, Ruiz, Lane Thomas, Josh Smith
2022: Wood, Abrams, Gore, Wilyer Abreu, Moniak, Yennier Cano, Tristan Peters, Zach McKinstry, Edwin Arroyo (still excellent prospect).

There are other guys as well that have been useful and probably some I've missed but literally the #1, #6, and #10 players in batter WAR in baseball were traded in those two years. Wood, Abrams, and Gore were for Soto so you can even say that doesn't count in this situation but PCA (7 WAR this season already) was for Javy Baez, Ryan (2.5 WAR) was for Nelson Cruz, Luzardo (3.5 WAR) was for Starling Marte, Abreu (2 WAR) was for Christian Vazquez. Peters (2.5 WAR) was for Trevor Rosenthal. Yeah, most guys don't make it but some do. Fangraphs has the Jays at 6.7% chance to make playoffs and 0.3% chance to win World Series. You simply don't pass on the opportunity to get significant prospects for an extreme long-shot scenario.

SK - Their counter-point will be that "the team can go on a run at any point" and therefore they aren't actually out of it yet. Even though this isn't backed by anything convincing. This 2026 team has played over 100 games and has enough data to be judged fairly accurately.

The ironic thing is that some of these same posters will tell you that there is no point in trading Gausman, Varsho, Bieber, Springer, Hoffman, etc. because "they have no value", but then they will turn around and argue that keeping these players will somehow lead to the team bouncing back and going on a huge run to make the playoffs. But these two opinions clearly contradict each other. If all of those players have poor value, it would be because they aren't deemed to be difference makers. Therefore if they aren't difference makers, how can you reasonably conclude that the team is likely to go on this huge miraculous run?

You can't argue that the roster is assembled around a bunch of average players with little to no value, and then turn around and suggest that those same average players can play at a ~109 win rate for the remainder of the season (or whatever crazy rate it is for them to reasonably get to ~85 wins).

Jays definitely see this year as an aberration so I am sure they want to buy as well for next year. They need a starting pitcher with some team control, a CF with some team control and if they trade Hoffman and/or Rogers some relievers who can emerge as late inning options. They also need to clear out at least one of the LH corner OF guys (Lukes, Sanchez, Pinango) and ideally at some point get a corner OF who can be a middle of the order bat.

Right now, team looks sort of like this for 2027.
C: Kirk, Valenzuela
1B: Vlad
2B: Clement
SS: Gimenez
3B: Okamoto
LF: Lukes
CF:?
RF: Barger
DH: Sanchez/Keys/Pinango

SP: Cease, Yesavage, Ponce, Miles, Berrios?
RP: Varland, Rogers, Hoffman, Fisher, Fluharty, Macko,

I don't think they need a DH because Vlad, Okamoto, some young guys can rotate in there but that allows them to upgrade somewhere else (2B/3B?). Middle infield would be good to upgrade because Gimenez can't hit at all and Clement can't field anymore but realistically they are ranked 17th and 15th in WAR at their positions which is mediocre and Gimenez would take eating another bad contract with probably even less value to the Jays.

The chance of making the playoffs this year is too low to make that their guiding strategy. They have to make moves with an eye to 2027 and beyond now. Sell the expiring contracts, buy big leaguers that under control beyond this year, whatever helps with that. What they can't do is acquire rentals or do nothing. 

They are definitely not going to just stand pat. This front office hasn't done that any deadline yet and I won't expect that to change now. I'm also quite sure they don't see themselves as strong enough contenders to consider acquiring rentals.

My prediction is Gausman, Varsho, and Bieber (if they can find a taker) are moved. I put Hoffman in the maybe pile because while he would be useful in the pen next year, they may want to give him a fresh start just for his sake and he would definitely be worth something on the market.

Zero question in my mind they need to chase a CF first - I really don't want a repeat of the ugly days of the past with guys like Shawn Green, Randal Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez (2019 regular in CF) playing CF.

the garbled math isn't helping anyone.

Jays are 50-59. 53 games left.

Wildcard has been pretty much bang on .500 all year. Jays would need to play .584 baseball (31-22 - a 95 win pace) the rest of the way to get back to .500. They'd need to go 33-20 (100 win pace) to finish a couple games over.

we've already had similar runs this year (started 7-13, then a 22-16 run (.579) to get back to 29-29). we don't even need anything close to that great 36-14 (.720) run we had in the middle of last year.

And as for hypocrisy - you're the one saying a) this team sucks enough that closing a 5gm gap would be a miracle, and b) they have all sorts of trade value.

One thing i never liked was that imo management got a little high on their own supply in the offseason, and probably didn't quite appreciate how important the hard to measure clubhouse balance/chemistry was to the team's success last year. The offseason featured a bit too much cavalier major surgery for my tastes - starting with never really bothering trying to bring Bo back, but also treating the likes of Bassitt and then eventually Lauer as afterthoughts. I love me some good analytics but even i appreciate that a making major changes to a winning team just because the on-paper value swaps might make sense is risky business.

"Wildcard has been pretty much bang on .500 all year. Jays would need to play .584 baseball (31-22 - a 95 win pace) the rest of the way to get back to .500. They'd need to go 33-20 (100 win pace) to finish a couple games over."

If the Jays had another 22-16 run which was their best stretch, they would still need to go 11-4 in their last 15 games!!! And if there were one team ahead of the Jays, I'd say they have a half-decent chance but there are 5 teams ahead of the Jays competing for 1 spot so if the Jays need to go say, 33-20 to make the third wildcard, Cleveland just needs to go 27-25 to have same record, Astros would need to go 29-24, Mariners have to go 30-23. It's not just that the Jays have to be great, it's that the teams ahead of them have to be pretty bad. Like, if Houston gets hot and goes 31-21, the Jays would have to basically play .700 ball to get the playoffs. What is more likely? The Jays play on a 100 win pace the rest of the year or any one of five other teams plays on a 95-win pace?

And as for hypocrisy - you're the one saying a) this team sucks enough that closing a 5gm gap would be a miracle, and b) they have all sorts of trade value.

Don't put words into my mouth. I never claimed that they have "all sorts of value". I pushed back on claims that they were going to get the equivalent of Charles McAdoo's for Kevin Gausman, or that no other team will want Hoffman even though he has been blowing batters away for 2 months now and has elite reliever traits. My literal claim on Gausman was that he should net a ~ "borderline" Top 100-125 type prospect, which is more or less the industry consensus. Please don't suggest that I ever claimed that they were going to get hauls for any of these players not named Varland.

I don't have time to argue with you on your hopelessly optimistic win/loss projections. 81-81 is more or less a best possible case projection that you can make for the Jays barring some sort of miracle. The problem is: there are like 4 other non division-leading teams in the AL that have that as their REALISTIC projection as of today. So you are basically assuming that the Jays will play at 100% of their capability (or above it) the rest of the way, whereas not one of those other teams will go on a run of their own, or make significant acquisitions at the deadline that completely changes their projections. You are glossing over a massive oversight. For that reason, you can't just bake into your "model" that 81-81 gets them into the playoffs.

Not even one of the FG, BP, or BR projection models calculates the Jays' playoff odds at higher than 10% as of today. All three are below 10%. That is three different computer models that are using boatloads of data. The Jays' own internal models will be a hell of a lot closer to those projected odds than whatever "feelings based" model you are using yourself. As of today, the highest wRC+ on the team from a player who plays a regular role is Okamoto at 113 wRC+. That alone gives you an idea just how bad this offense has been through 100+ games. What is the likelihood that a team with zero elite hitters is going to play 95-100+ win ball the rest of the way? And its not just offense; look at your starting pitching. Is Max Scherzer going to be a part of this 95-100 win pace? Shane Bieber? They have 3 starters right now. Oh, and their defense is all over the place. But yes, if you ignore all of these points and project the best case scenario for everyone on the roster moving forward, then the Jays could hit 81-81. At which point you still aren't even close to guaranteeing yourself a WC spot because you now also need to pray that one of: Cleveland/Chicago, Texas/Houston, Seattle, Minnesota, and Baltimore didn't go on a run of their own which puts them at 82+ wins. Several of those teams have much easier remaining strength of schedules, by the way.

Well said Glevin!

His projection conveniently assumes that those 4-5 other teams that are already in front of the Jays are all just going to play average or worse over the remainder of the season, whereas the Jays are going to play at 95-100 win pace. Neither of those two components is the likely outcome, which is exactly why the computer models peg the Jays at ~4-9% projected playoff odds right now.

* The Blue jays of 2024 and 2026 are the real Blue Jays
* The Blue Jays of 2025 were a fluke.
* The Blue Jays have very strong assets they can trade to restock their farm with legitimate prospects in the top 150 of MLB or so
* The Blue Jays this year have 0 chance of competing since they are 5.5 games back
*This last point can't be argued because past performance must predict future performance
* Keeping any of the above asset players is insane because the team sucks as is
* anybody that doesn't concede this year's team MUST sell is delusional and has irrational thinking that contradicts itself because they can't turn it around
* Blue Jays have to shed payroll to get below the luxury tax
* clearing out rentals, clearing out salary and bringing in new young controllable players will improve the team for 2027 and if you don't agree you're delusional

Metafour, have I summarized your POV?

Seems like a lot of us like to argue far more than I. What I feel they should do is meaningless.

IMO, the question that matters is "What will the FO do?"
A) Buy?
B) Stand pat?
C) Sell?

I"m guessing C).

All i see is the "playoffs odds" confusing people because they indicate more certainty than people think.

Playoffs odds can and do change very, very quickly.

look on fangraphs and almost half the teams have seen their playoffs odds shift by 9-15% just over the last 7 days alone.

If you could propose an actual plan other than "This team sucks and anybody who doesn't agree is delusional," it would be easier to see your point.

Let's all agree that this team sucks. What happens next in your book for them to get better for 2027? That's what I'm missing. They already stand to shed about 100,000,000 or more from their salary. How are they going to field a team next year that's better than this current line up?

I think there's a strong possibility the line up in 2027 is worse that the line up right now. You will lose Springer and replace him with the ghost of Santander. The pitching rotation will also likely be worse.

If you could show (we're just discussing) that the Blue Jays could trade Hoffman, Gausman and Springer for example, and get back 2-3 top 150 prospects who could be cracking your starting 9 next year or rotation...players who can replace and be enough of an improvement over guys like Lukes, Pinango, Clement, Sanchez, Schneider...if you can propose that then I'm convinced you're right. That means selling your top rentals will net you bonafide players that improve your team for next year.

This is the crux of the disagreement. I don't think you will get back players any better or with more upside than "periphery" players we already have.

You keep arguing this team is bad and that's why they should sell. I don't think anyone can disagree with that. I'd just rather see them compete for the slim chance with a better performing team this year than see them tank the rest of this season and field an even worse team next year with more AAAA guys, half of which will need to be traded or cut or jsut stashed at AAAA Buffalo shuttle bus.

And one more thing, even if they traded for players who are improvements but we won't see them at the show until 2028 or even 2029...I even think that's unlikely.

Maybe the disagreement simply comes down to the perceived players coming back in trades. I think they won't be enticing enough and you do.

I'm not even against selling if the trade is a good one.

But the idea of selling for the sake of it doesn't feel right at all to me at this point. Most of the guys we'd be selling are guys that i'd be happy to have back on the team next year.

Yup pretty much same idea. Let's recap:

- team underperformed, probably better to assume they are closer to 2024 Jays
- trade rentals if good trades available for good players that can grade to be at least 2 WAR full time players in the future
- ensure you reset the luxury tax for next year enough to eliminate the draft penalty
- sign SP to round out your rotation next year

--> team still sucks offensively and now without Springer for 2027. This is the far bigger issue than buying/selling this year. How do you get better offensively when no real players on the market this fall via free agency and your only internal options are bounce backs from Barger and Santander?

It's hard to draw any grand conclusions from an Angels trade, but the relatively light return for Chase Silseth and Logan O'Hoppe isn't the best sign for the reliever market.

The kid the Angels got is a 19 yr old with a 113 wRC+ in A ball. Prior to his explosion last night, JoJo had a 113 wRC+ in A ball. And the kid is 2 months younger.Guessing Statcast data is less complimentary, but this is the type of flier that sometimes works out much better than expected.

O'Hoppe has been the worst catcher in baseball over the past two years, so that is actually closer to a salary dump than an actual "piece" to that return. Silseth is a pretty solid middle-relief pitcher, but he is out of MiLB options so he can't be sent down. He is also getting overblown a bit with regards to his ability (0.5 fWAR reliever with ~3.8-4.0 xERA and ~3.95 xFIP).

I don't think that this trade says anything about the reliever market. Even if we conclude that the Angels got fleeced, it won't drive the price down for other relievers as it would be treated as an anomaly. For the same reason why AJ Preller giving up De Vries for Miller doesn't now imply that Varland would return a Top 10 prospect.

Yeah the Angels trade is a nothing burger when it comes to determining value in the market. O'Hoppe is literally one of the worst players in baseball the last two years and makes over $2M. Silseth is a solid but unspectacular reliever. Seems like the Angels wanted to dump whatever was left of O'Hoppe's contract and used Silseth to facilitate that. I wouldn't read anything beyond that.

There is no contradiction in suggesting that the impending FAs don't have that much trade value, yet also saying that by keeping them the Jays maintain their only chance at going on a huge run to make the playoffs.

"The Phillies are interested in Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Earlier today, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that the two clubs are emerging as potential trade partners, mentioning that Varsho, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Jeff Hoffman and George Springer could be fits for the Phils. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Jays aren’t willing to move Louis Varland but are open to offers on relievers Hoffman, Tyler Rogers, Mason Fluharty and Spencer Miles."

from mlbtraderumors.com

"there's a strong possibility the line up in 2027 is worse that the line up right now"

While there is certainly some chance of that, there are at least a few things that should make the lineup next year better:

1. Bounce back from some players.
2. Vlad hits better (you have to hope, if Vlad is same/worse next year that is likely an unfixable problem).
3. Barger back.

But yeah, they should be trying to improve the lineup next year be it in developing players, trades, or offseason signings.

Bit surprised the Jays would be listening to offers on Miles. Their only SP's next year are Cease, Ponce and Trey. Filling out the rotation through FA will be a challenge. and if owners win the salary cap battle, it may be an impossibility.

Fangraphs also projects them with the 6th most war the rest of the way, which would translate to more than a .500 record, so there's basic upside even above the standings projection, even without any projected 'hot streak'.


And I wouldn't listen to any of the rumours, really - one thing i like about this FO is that I'm sure they are willing to always talk about anyone on the roster. Doesn't mean they necessarily want to move them tho. I'm sure every team is sniffing around a guy like Miles, and I'm sure the FO is more than willing to listen to offers. But i doubt they get one that matches the value they see in Miles.

I hope they sweep this weekend, just to make the arguments here even better.

Also - they could sell pieces and STILL make a run at the playoffs, given the talent we have here.

I see a ton of rotation options coming up in free agency. Lots. Hitters I see almost none. Jays also have Perry, Tiedeman, King and Stanifer who should all be ready at some point before the end of next year. Counting on Yesavage, Ponce and Cease gives you 3/5 and there's still Berrios and Francis who should factor in at some point.

Jays have had a good time signing free agent pitchers in their 30s. Trading someone like Miles (huge upside potential) to a team who sees him as a starter and getting back a solid above average top 5 hitter prospect would be the type of move I'd like to see this FO do.

Yeah I caught the end of some sports talk from Toronto today. The narrative is completely out of control, as usual. Fans are always unreasonable, it's the nature of fandom. It's just...there's actually people advocating for trading Louis Varland. Like...are you bleeping kidding me?

I also hope they sweep and gain some ground. Again, I enjoy the debate; it's part of being fans and amateur analysts. It's just nauseating to hear the non-competitive takes of people to me. Like people are advocating for them not to get back in the race.
I am confident the Blue Jays feel like their competition for this final wild card is weak enough that they don't punt this season. Even if they do trade one or two of the pending free agents, they either improve or stay neutral for this season.

Plausible Best Lineups, using....


This Year's Stats only:

1. RF Lukes 263pa, .338obp, 108wrc+, 3.2war650
2. 3B Okamoto 432pa, .308obp, 113wrc+, 3.0war650
3. LF Sanchez 234pa, .316obp, 108wrc+, 0.3war650
4. 2B Clement 430pa, .319obp, 107wrc+, 2.3war650
5. DH Springer 344pa, .317obp, 104wrc+, 1.0war650
6. 1B Guerrero 435pa, .345obp, 99wrc+, 1.4war650
7. CF Varsho 354pa, .308obp, 93wrc+, 2.2war650
8. C Valenzuela 203pa, .307obp, 98wrc+, 5.1war650
9. SS Gimenez 346pa, .270obp, 72wrc+, 2.4war650

B. UT Pinango 180pa, .306obp, 97wrc+, -0.4war650
B. OF Straw 189pa, .273obp, 64wrc+, 0.3war650
B. IF Schneider 129pa, .281obp, 67wrc+, -2.0war650
B. C Alejandro 136pa, .309obp, 81wrc+, 3.8war650

X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 83wrc+, -1.9war650
X. OF Clase 25pa, .360obp, 153wrc+, 7.8war650
X. IF Urias 47pa, .298obp, 109wrc+, 2.8war650
X. C

X. UT Sosa 117pa, .207obp, 31wrc+, -3.9war650
X. UT Keys 37pa, .189obp, 25wrc+, -5.3war650
X. UT McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 14wrc+, -5.2war650
X. UT Barger 28pa, .214obp, 1wrc+, 0.0war650




Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

1. DH Springer 522pa, .357obp, 139wrc+, 3.6war650
2. 1B Guerrero 650pa, .345obp, 108wrc+, 1.8war650
3. 3B Okamoto 432pa, .308obp, 113wrc+, 3.0war650
4. CF Varsho 525pa, .309obp, 106wrc+, 3.5war650
5. SS Clement 627pa, .317obp, 107wrc+, 2.9war650
6. RF Lukes 444pa, .316obp, 100wrc+, 2.5war650
7. 2B Schneider 247pa, .321obp, 98wrc+, 1.1war650
8. C Alejandro 296pa, .314obp, 97wrc+, 4.8war650
9. LF Sanchez 403pa, .295obp, 94wrc+, 0.2war650

B. UT Pinango 180pa, .306obp, 97wrc+, -0.4war650
B. OF Straw 281pa, .299obp, 87wrc+, 2.8war650
B. IF Gimenez 477pa, .267obp, 68wrc+, 1.9war650
B. C Valenzuela 203pa, .307obp, 98wrc+, 5.1war650

X. UT Sosa 326pa, .258obp, 80wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Barger 219pa, .269obp, 72wrc+, 0.6war650
X. IF Urias 90pa, .289obp, 75wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C MacIver 59pa, .220obp, 21wrc+, -3.3war650

X. OF Clase 25pa, .360obp, 153wrc+, 7.8war650
X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 83wrc=

Plausible Best Lineups, using....


This Year's Stats only:

1. RF Lukes 263pa, .338obp, 108wrc+, 3.2war650
2. 3B Okamoto 432pa, .308obp, 113wrc+, 3.0war650
3. LF Sanchez 234pa, .316obp, 108wrc+, 0.3war650
4. 2B Clement 430pa, .319obp, 107wrc+, 2.3war650
5. DH Springer 344pa, .317obp, 104wrc+, 1.0war650
6. 1B Guerrero 435pa, .345obp, 99wrc+, 1.4war650
7. CF Varsho 354pa, .308obp, 93wrc+, 2.2war650
8. C Valenzuela 203pa, .307obp, 98wrc+, 5.1war650
9. SS Gimenez 346pa, .270obp, 72wrc+, 2.4war650

B. UT Pinango 180pa, .306obp, 97wrc+, -0.4war650
B. OF Straw 189pa, .273obp, 64wrc+, 0.3war650
B. IF Schneider 129pa, .281obp, 67wrc+, -2.0war650
B. C Alejandro 136pa, .309obp, 81wrc+, 3.8war650

X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 83wrc+, -1.9war650
X. OF Clase 25pa, .360obp, 153wrc+, 7.8war650
X. IF Urias 47pa, .298obp, 109wrc+, 2.8war650
X. C

X. UT Sosa 117pa, .207obp, 31wrc+, -3.9war650
X. UT Keys 37pa, .189obp, 25wrc+, -5.3war650
X. UT McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 14wrc+, -5.2war650
X. UT Barger 28pa, .214obp, 1wrc+, 0.0war650




Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

1. DH Springer 522pa, .357obp, 139wrc+, 3.6war650
2. 1B Guerrero 650pa, .345obp, 108wrc+, 1.8war650
3. 3B Okamoto 432pa, .308obp, 113wrc+, 3.0war650
4. CF Varsho 525pa, .309obp, 106wrc+, 3.5war650
5. SS Clement 627pa, .317obp, 107wrc+, 2.9war650
6. RF Lukes 444pa, .316obp, 100wrc+, 2.5war650
7. 2B Schneider 247pa, .321obp, 98wrc+, 1.1war650
8. C Alejandro 296pa, .314obp, 97wrc+, 4.8war650
9. LF Sanchez 403pa, .295obp, 94wrc+, 0.2war650

B. UT Pinango 180pa, .306obp, 97wrc+, -0.4war650
B. OF Straw 281pa, .299obp, 87wrc+, 2.8war650
B. IF Gimenez 477pa, .267obp, 68wrc+, 1.9war650
B. C Valenzuela 203pa, .307obp, 98wrc+, 5.1war650

X. UT Sosa 326pa, .258obp, 80wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Barger 219pa, .269obp, 72wrc+, 0.6war650
X. IF Urias 90pa, .289obp, 75wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C MacIver 59pa, .220obp, 21wrc+, -3.3war650

X. OF Clase 25pa, .360obp, 153wrc+, 7.8war650
X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 83wrc+, -1.9war650
X. UT Keys 37pa, .189obp, 25wrc+, -5.3war650
X. UT Santander 12pa, .250obp, 17wrc+, -5.4war650
X. UT McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 14wrc+, -5.2war650




Fangraphs Combined Depth Chart Projections:

1. DH Springer 165pa, .335obp, 116wrc+, 2.0war650
2. 1B Guerrero 222pa, .372obp, 136wrc+, 3.8war650
3. 3B Okamoto 204pa, .318obp, 113wrc+, 3.2war650
4. C Alejandro 126pa, .344obp, 112wrc+, 5.7war650
5. RF Lukes 151pa, .334obp, 107wrc+, 2.6war650
6. 2B Schneider 44pa, .325obp, 103wrc+, 3.0war650
7. LF Sanchez 133pa, .314obp, 107wrc+, 2.0war650
8. SS Clement 202pa, .311obp, 99wrc+, 2.9war650
9. CF Varsho 192pa, .298obp, 100wrc+, 2.7war650

B. UT Urias 46pa, .321obp, 99wrc+, 1.4war650
B. OF Straw 69pa, .294obp, 74wrc+, 0.9war650
B. IF Gimenez 192pa, .302obp, 89wrc+, 3.0war650
B. C Valenzuela 104pa, .283obp, 79wrc+, 1.9war659

X. UT Pinango 76pa, .297obp, 87wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Clase 30pa, .293obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Sosa 44pa, .274obp, 83wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C MacIver 2pa, .278obp, 72wrc+, 0.0war650

X. OF Schreck 2pa, .319obp, 97wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF McAdoo 7pa, .287obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war650
X. UT Keys 30pa, .288obp, 81wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Martin 2pa, .291obp, 75wrc+, 0.0war650

I've been pounding the trade with the Phillies drum for a bit now. Their biggest holes are back end of rotation, pen, and CF. What do we have? Rotation, pen, and CF available. They are old (many over 30's in the lineup) and at the end of a success cycle. This should be their 5th straight year in the playoffs, but they got worse each year (WS loser year one, NCLS 4-3 loss, NCDS 3-1 loss 2 years in a row, on pace for a potential WC loss this year). Justin Crawford in CF and Andrew Painter (P) are the only players under 25 on their roster at any point of this season. I'd happily give them all of those parts for either of those guys (Gausman-Bieber-Varsho-Hoffman-Springer). That could push them beyond the WC and maybe even to a division title and get to the WS again. That cost for them would be high, a top prospect in CF or a top prospect for their rotation, but right now it looks like in '27 and beyond that is all they'd have that isn't decaying and getting old. If they want that elusive title they gotta give up something good and David Dombrowski is known for taking risks - he has a couple of WS rings to prove it and other appearances there.

Thinking about it - the Jays could take on Aaron Nola's underwater contract if needed to get it done - he is getting 5-7 innings lately, but is owed $24.6 mil a year for 4 more years (is 33 now, 80 ERA+ after a 74 last year). His only purpose would be to eat innings here, but on a playoff team his only purpose would be to cheer on his teammates. If somehow we could get Painter and Crawford I'd be over the moon even with that $24.6 mil albatross of a contract sent back. Maybe send them Gimenez too (balance out bad deals) so he can back up Trea Turner whose having a terrible year (80 OPS+ vs 118 lifetime with negative fielding stats this year) - their 2B isn't wow either (93 OPS+ 0.7 bWAR this year) so maybe they could use Gimenez - if they got both Bieber & Gausman then Nola is a useless piece so that could work for both clubs - they get a useful insurance piece for 2B/SS, we get an arm that can eat innings this year, 27 and beyond for both clubs is a nightmare to be dealt with later.

For what it's worth Jeff Passan saying there is 0% chance of a salary cap next year.

June: what is your actual proposal there? Gausman-Bieber-Varsho-Hoffman-Springer for ONE OF Crawford or Painter LOL? Dear god, no.

Crawford flat out sucks barring some miraculous swing change. His swing path and batted ball profile are terrible, and he doesn't even play CF well. He is a 50%+ GB hitter who chases outside the zone a lot on top of the horrendous batted ball profile. Imagine Kasevich, except remove the elite zone control & patience and make him a mid or worse CF'er instead of a good middle infielder defensively. Yes, Crawford is 22, but his offensive profile has looked like this all throughout the minors so a huge change is a stretch. His actual MLB comp right now would be Raimel Tapia. The main problem is that his profile right now will produce zero power at the MLB level, and a CF who hits for zero power will need to be Kevin Kiermaier level good defensively to be a "good starting CF". And Crawford is worse right now defensively than the declined 2026 version of Varsho.

Painter is at least more interesting than Crawford, but his shine is also significantly down because his fastball doesn't miss any bats and grades as a below average pitch even though he throws hard. He is down in AAA right now tinkering with his stuff, but its hard to see him ever reaching his draft-year hype barring a change to the fastball. He can still end up a solid #3/#4 type even with an average fastball, but you'd return more back if you were to just trade all those pieces separately.

I think you're getting caught up too much on past-prospect hype. Especially on Crawford.

Good to hear. Hope Passan is right.

Painter Pre Injury

A (19): 9gms, 4.3ip/gm, 46.3k%, 10.7b%, 35era-, 32fip-, 49xfip-
A+ (19): 8gms, 4.6ip/gm, 34.3k%, 4.9b%, 23era-, 54fip-, 72xfip-
AA (19): 5gms, 5.7ip/gm, 33.9k%, 1.8b%, 55era-, 55fip-, 68xfip-

That's pretty awesome.

But he looks fundamentally different post injury.

A (22): 4gms, 2.8ip/gm, 26.7k%, 2.2b%, 90era-, 91fip-, 68xfip-
AAA (22): 22gms, 4.9ip/gm, 23.4k%, 9.7b%, 116era-, 105fip-, 93xfip-
AAA (23): 5gms, 4.7ip/gm, 24.8k%, 7.9b%, 94era-, 72fip-, 83xfip-
MLB (23): 14gms, 4.6ip/gm, 17.7k%, 8.0b%, 165era-, 128fip-, 115xfip-

He'd be an interesting gamble but bust potential is noe extremely high.



I'd contrast him with Tiedemann, who was similarly dominant in a run up to AA at 19. Tiedemann's injuries are even more concerning in terms of durability, but at the same time Ricky usually always still racks up the Ks when he does pitch, with the only real performance blip being a small sample bout of extreme wildness which led up to his last injury.

Painter is back pitching healthy, but just nowhere near the level he was at before

Really don't like what Phillies have to offer unless they overpay. Crawford would be an interesting gamble but more for a rebuilding team. I think there's like a 80% chance he isn't a major league starter. Painter a more interesting risk I think but if you want to compete next year, someone a little more stable makes sense. Other teams just have much more interesting second-tier prospects and young players.

I probably am too caught up on past prospect hype there, as I don't study the minors like I did years ago (in the 80's and 90's I tended to know nearly every name in AAA/AA and a lot in A+/A - too much time on my hands). Crawford was a top 100 guy pre-2026, 2025, and 2024. In '25 in AAA he had a 334/411/452 line in AAA which looks good (IL) especially for a 21 year old. 4 years in the minors 322/385/446 is solid with 3 years in a row of 40+ SB. Yeah, not much power but he could be a solid leadoff hitter which this team really could use.

Painter was a top 10 prospect twice (23/25) and top 40 in 24/26 as well (BA/MLB) BP wasn't as high on him but top 51 every year from '22 to '26, top 20 from '23-'25.

I'd rather roll the dice on these guys than on a stack of guys like McAdoo, Shreck, and Clase who never made a top 100, let along a top 20 or 10. Of course, pro-scouting becomes critical here and I think the Jays are doing a good job with that - finding Valenzuela for example who no one saw being as good as he has been. So we'll see. I'm hoping they find some really good talented guys other clubs are not wanting to give up but do out of desperation as pitching/defense is the name of the game in the playoffs and that the Jays have.

appreciate the work

SK, as much as I like to mock the Angels, I really don't think they are trading a solid middle reliever to save less than $500,000.

Metafour, I agree O'Hoppe isn't an actual piece in that return, but the Rangers could use Triple-A catching depth as Cooper Johnson is their primary Triple-A catcher, so O'Hoppe has utility as a depth piece and theyll just non-tender him at year end.

I agree with the rest of your post, and I don't think Silseth is as good as his numbers. However, he has four years of control, which is valuable, even without options. As a comp to Fisher, it's just interesting to see a decent middle reliever with years of control fetch a non-Top 30 prospect (for the Rangers, I'm sure he'll be in Anaheim's top 30) having a good year.

Sorry, just over $500,000.

Sorry, just over $500,000.

Talking Friars@TalkingFriars

"The organization’s scouts have recently fanned around the country, watching players at all levels, including big-league trade candidates such as the Toronto Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman and the New York Mets’ Freddy Peralta."

Got an idea for you, ugly. You could satisfy your OCD tendencies and continue to amass incalculable screen-space on Da Box by compiling plausible rosters (by year, decade — whatever). Or perhaps plausible coaching staffs (including bullpens). Plausible scouting staffs, front offices, mascots. The opportunities are staggering.

I'd prefer to read that Dewey than to read nonsense complaint posts that offer no forward momentum to the discussion.

Tempting, Dewey, tempting.

I would trade any or all current blue jays that do not have a contract for next year.

George Springer
Kevin Gausman
Max Scherzer
Shane Bieber
Daulton Varsho
Yimi Garcia
Myles Straw

Or package one of the above with someone with term to fit a bigger need for next year. (a position player who can hit)

To me the list on players above do not hold much value for the current 2026 team. The big todo for the front office is selling enough of them to get back their draft position. If you can get someone with upside, or future value great.

It's just math that the 1 year/2 year rolling stats don't change much from day to day except for rookies or guys returning from long injuries.

The 15 day/30 days change a lot, but that's telling me who's hot, not really who's good.

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

Trade news: The Minnesota Twins are acquiring left-handed reliever A.J. Minter from the New York Mets, sources tell ESPN.

The Mets’ selling starts with one of the top relievers on the market. There will be many more Mets deals to come before Aug. 3.

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

The return for A.J. Minter, per ESPN sources: infielder Billy Amick and infielder Bruin Agbayani — the son of longtime Mets outfielder Benny Agbayani. Amick has big power, questions about position. Agbayani is young, toolsy and instinctual. First on the return was
@WillSammon
.

MIN #21 & #29 - MLB.com

 >But we know that this team is better than they've played. That's obvious.
How is it obvious? What are your indicators? Eventually, your stats ARE who you are as a baseball team.

"How is it obvious? What are your indicators?"

Regression to the mean and the career and projected lines of the players. All of that is made lower/worse the longer the bad play continues, but it is still substantially better than what they've shown so far this season.

But yeah the combination of difficult rest of season schedule and short rest of season means that even playing "up to" the expected level is not enough, they need to play better than expected level which is itself better than the level they've played to even have the chance for WC3.

A couple of things that makes me think they are better than they have played:

Springer was clearly not healthy and was playing through injury when he came back. You can tell because he looks healthy and like a different hitter now.

Kirk also was not "caught up" and still battling thumb injury when he came back or just not himself. He's started slowly to play better.

Hoffman was awful in the closer's role and cost the team what, 4-5 games?

You add up the missed games from Springer before he returned and there's a decent chunk of performance difference compared to now.

Kirk I don't count his missed time because Brandon V was superman during his absence.

Vlad has been terrible and I do not expect him to figure out his mechanics magically on July 31st.

They also were without Yesavage for a time and then dealing with his delivery issues which have been ironed out now and are "repeatable and under control" per Pete Walker.

I think the teams in front of them are trash besides the Astros (wild car teams - MIN, DET, CLE, SEA).

For schedule I see Rays, Yankees, Cubs and Phillies as the only series rest of the season that look tough. BOS, HOU, SEA, CLE, CIN, STL, KC, OAK and BAL look like cakewalks.

I haven't been following, so I wonder what is the prevailing copium about Guerrero's lack of power? What is it this time? Is there a presumed injury the Jays aren't reporting?

"A couple of things that makes me think they are better than they have played:"

Almost every single team in baseball can say this and many with more reason than the Jays. Look at Boston. They've been without Roman Anthony and Garret Crochet for most of the year and when they were healthy, they were both way worse than you'd expect them to be. The Astros had Hunter Brown and Josh Hadar both miss like 3 months. Jeremy Pena missed over a month with injuries. etc... Jays have also had some things go right. Varland has been insane in relief. Cease has been a top-5 starter in baseball. Valenzuela has come out of nowhere to be a valuable player. Do I think Jays are better than their record? Absolutely. Do I think they are a good enough team to play .650 baseball the rest of the way? Not very likely. Those are very different things.

A lot of "regression to the mean" has already happened, and the team still has a bad record during it. Springer has been hitting for like two months now. Kirk has a ~100 wRC+ over his past 20 games. The trio of Varland/Rogers/Hoffman has been basically unhittable for two months now, and the team has a losing record over that period.

Yes, Hoffman blew ~4 games early on, but there is obviously zero guarantee that Varland is going to go the full season without blowing a single save attempt himself. What happens is his line starts normalizing in reverse? Is he going to go the full season running a sub 1.00 ERA?

Furthermore, if you look at the offense: their xwOBA (expected wOBA) is dead last in the league at .297. So while they have been very bad offensively, it actually lines up exactly to their expected results based off of their poor quality of contact. This means that the offense isn't just being "unlucky", in which case you could assume a potential correction at some point.

The Mariners are also underperforming expectations because their offense has been really bad, but they actually have an xwOBA of .320 which is 12th highest in the league. So if you want to predict a team that might flip a switch offensively and produce better over the rest of the season, it is considerably more likely that it is going to be the Mariners.

On Vlad:

Some think it's an unlucky season.

Some think the Jays coaching knows exactly what the problem is and have told Vlad what to do to fix it and he hasn't or can't.

Some think he is injured and trying to lay through it.

The consensus seems to be that he tried to do to much because he had no support in the line up and then started making bad decisions and then threw his mechanics out and now can't get his mechanics back and now has become a hitter who has to cheat (start swing early) and guess...and the hope is he can redo his swing entirely in the offseason.

I haven't heard anyone say they think he's going to come out of it this season...

Fangraphs had the prospects the Mets acquired for Minter at #48 and an HM as per their June list on the Twins. They are in the #20-30 range at MLB.com.

FWIW, Mets fans don't appear to be impressed with the return.

"Fangraphs had the prospects the Mets acquired for Minter at #48 and an HM as per their June list on the Twins. They are in the #20-30 range at MLB.com.

FWIW, Mets fans don't appear to be impressed with the return."

I mean, Minter is an OK middle reliever who has pitched 34 innings in the last 2 years and is owed another $3M this year so I think return is fine. You're not going to get an exciting prospect for this kind of guy.

Glevin is correct. Minter isn't worth much because he has $3.4M remaining on his $11M salary for 2026 and he is a 0.1 fWAR reliever who has only pitched 23 innings.

This is a salary dump for the Mets, so you're not getting much back in the way of propsects.

the mets care about $3m?

The potential expected positive regression stems from the simple fact that our roster still projects as one of the best in baseball going forward. It's not that complicated.

From MLBTR 10 days ago:

"One thing the Mets don’t plan to do this time around, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post, is eat money in order to facilitate trades."

Mets owe about $120 million in Competitive Balance Taxes alone. At some point with a garbage team, owner is going to care a lot more about the bottom line and this year seems to be that point.

We will see what relievers like Hoffman, Fisher or Rogers can get you back. I'm not holding my breath it's going to be much.

If Springer or Gausman can be turned into a better player coming back than Davis Schneider, Jesus Sanchez or Nathan Lukes I'd be over the moon. Again, not holding my breath.

Give me Hunter Green or Jose Soriano for some combination of prospects outside the top 10 and I'll be over the moon. Also not holding my breath...

Casey Mize scratched from start. Looks like Detroit expects Skubal and Mize to go. That makes it a lot easier to pass them.

the mets care about $3m?

Clearly they do, because the Twins are taking on the entirety of his remaining salary. Which should be a lesson for a few posters on here with the opinion that big-market teams with money are just jumping for joy to bloat their payroll with even more salary commitments even when they are 10+ games under .500.

Gents,

Nobody comes here fore "a lesson," and pretending so begs one to get one. Let us disagree in peace and allow reality to dictate who's opinion is closer to the result.

Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
·
1m
As the deadline nears, Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays haven't discussed an extension. "I'm definitely open to that, but we'll see," he said. "I need to sit down and talk to my family and figure out the next step after this season. The focus is still obviously on this season and this team and this organization.”

would still surprise me if the $3m was a significant factor for either team in that deal, tbh.

The $3.37 million remaining on Minters salary is actually around $5 million in savings for the Mets.

Gausman is listed as tomorrow's starter. I would think/hope that if he were going to be traded then they'd skip that start. By Saturday, it's not like the deadline would be a week away. It would be 2 days. Given how snakebitten the Jays have been this season, is there any real upside to starting him tomorrow? It's not like his performance is going to change the type of return one way or the other (unlike Bieber who is coming back from injury so performance/stuff is a bit more important for him). Maybe the Jays just want him to get a standing ovation in Toronto one last time, which sounds great (and would be well deserved), and it's not like they have another starter waiting in the wings, but no reward/high risk seems like the best way to deserve that strategy.

The Jays are 5 games back (loss column) of a playoff spot and have no business punting games in July by benching an extremely durable SP.

We tend to look at extreme answers. Will they start him and risk he gets injured or will they bench him to be safe?

How about, "are there any real significant pieces being proposed to come back in trade that would entice Toronto to sit Gausman?" That's what it comes down to.

Guardians have lost 7 of their last 11.
Seattle has lost 7 of their last 10.
Detroit is cleaning house.
Baltimore is selling.

There's every chance Toronto is ahead of these teams in 10 days.

Minnesota at .500 and without Buxton or Ryan? Toronto will catch them.

That leaves Houston or Boston as the last WC to catch. Unlikely. BUT.. Boston has been terrible until their run. Are they going to play at that insane clip the rest of the way or revert back to how they were for most of the season?

Toronto has 3 left vs Houston and Cleveland and 4 left against Boston.

The offense, it's the offense. If they get another bat in here they can make it real interesting. Is destiny in their hands? No, they missed that chance but they're not out.

The Jays are 5 games back (loss column) of a playoff spot and have no business punting games in July by benching an extremely durable SP.

The Jays realistically have to have a decision made by Saturday as to what their actual deadline plans are (if they haven't already reached a conclusion). This is their only "significant" trade chip. No, they aren't going to let the weekend play out and wait till Sunday evening to decide whether they even want to start trading away expiring contracts. You also run into the reality wherein a team interested in Gausman may want him to start for them on Sunday or Monday, and they request that he be scratched. This is in fact a serious decision that will be interesting to follow. Being durable doesn't negate the likelihood of him getting hit with a linedrive.

I find it hard to believe that the Jays are using this weekend's results to determine whether they are trading Gausman (and others). If they know they are trading him, and it's just a waiting game to see what offers come up closer to the deadline, then there's absolutely no logical way to rationalize letting him start on Saturday. As mentioned the team acquiring him might want to squeeze as many starts out of him as possible, so starting Saturday means he can't start again until next Thursday at the earliest. That's not even factoring the possibility of an errant comebacker, or an injury running to first base (which we have seen already earlier in the year), even if you consider that unlikely.

There's really no upside for the Jays here. Using Hoffman this weekend (assuming he's going to be traded as well) is more defensible, as relievers only need a day or two of rest max, and aren't out there for 5-6-7 innings at a time, but with a starter there needs to be more risk aversion as sellers.

if it were possible to get Hunter Greene I'd be all over it if the medicals and the scouts told me to ignore the rough comeback. But I'm not convinced they have anything like the capital it would take to be the top bidder.

There's always the possibility they want to keep him and resign him if no good offers or the blasphemous idea that they don't want to quit.

Even if you want to trade someone, you should play to win to help make sure you get more value. If you wave the white flag you become more desperate and skipping a pitcher's turn only invites health questions and desperation questions.