Plausible Best Lineups, using....


This Year's Stats Only


1. RF Lukes 239pa, .339obp, 108wrc+, 2.7war650
2. 3B Okamoto 404pa, .307obp, 109wrc+, 2.9war650
3. LF Sanchez 234pa, .316obp, 108wrc+, 0.3war650
4. 2B Clement 403pa, .320obp, 107wrc+, 2.3war650
5. C Valenzuela 195pa, .314obp, 103wrc+, 5.7war650
6. DH Springer 317pa, .312obp, 98wrc+, 0.6war650
7. 1B Guerrero 415pa, .340obp, 95wrc+, 1.4war650
8. CF Varsho 329pa, .301obp, 88wrc+, 1.8war650
9. SS Gimenez 328pa, .267obp, 70wrc+, 2.4war650

B. UT Pinango 166pa, .313obp, 104wrc+, 0.4war650
B. OF Straw 179pa, .277obp, 65wrc+, 0.0war650
B. IF Schneider 121pa, .283obp, 67wrc+, -2.2war650
B. C Alejandro 118pa, .297obp, 76wrc+, 3.3war650

X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 83wrc+, -1.9war650
X. OF Clase 25pa, .360obp, 152wrc+, 7.8war650
X. IF Urias 36pa, .306obp, 111wrc+, 3.6war650
X. C

X. UT Keys 37pa, .189obp, 24wrc+, -5.3war650
X. UT Sosa 117pa, .207obp, 30wrc+, -4.4war650
X. UT McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 13wrc+, -5.2war650
X. UT Barger 28pa, .214obp, 0wrc+, 0.0war650




Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

1. DH Springer 525pa, .365obp, 142wrc+, 3.8war650
2. 1B Guerrero 660pa, .348obp, 113wrc+, 2.4war650
3. 3B Okamoto 407pa, .307obp, 109wrc+, 2.9war650
4. CF Varsho 500pa, .304obp, 104wrc+, 3.4war650
5. 2B Clement 627pa, .314obp, 106wrc+, 2.9war650
6. RF Lukes 444pa, .316obp, 104wrc+, 2.6war650
7. C Alejandro 288pa, .313obp, 99wrc+, 5.0war650
8. LF Sanchez 419pa, .298obp, 95wrc+, 0.3war650
9. SS Gimenez 459pa, .265obp, 66wrc+, 1.8war650

B. UT Pinango 166pa, .313obp, 104wrc+, 0.4war650
B. OF Straw 281pa, .307obp, 91wrc+, 2.8war650
B. IF Schneider 248pa, .320obp, 95wrc+, 0.8war650
B. C Valenzuela 195pa, .314obp, 103wrc+, 5.7war650

X. UT Sosa 342pa, .267obp, 83wrc+, 0.2war650
X. OF Barger 246pa, .264obp, 68wrc+, 0.3war650
X. IF Urias 97pa, .299obp, 79wrc+, 0.7war650
X. C MacIver 59pa, .220obp, 21wrc+, -3.3war650

X. OF Clase 25pa, .360obp, 152wrc+, 7.8war650
X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 83wrc+, -1.9war650
X. UT Keys 37pa, .189obp, 24wrc+, -5.3war650
X. UT Santander 12pa, .250obp, 17wrc+, -5.4war650
X. UT McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 13wrc+, -5.2war650





Fangraphs Combined Depth Chart Projections:


1. DH Springer 184pa, .334obp, 114wrc+, 2.1war650
2. 1B Guerrero 247pa, .371obp, 135wrc+, 3.9war650
3. C Alejandro 140pa, .343obp, 111wrc+, 6.0war650
4. RF Lukes 168pa, .335obp, 107wrc+, 2.7war650
5. 3B Okamoto 227pa, .319obp, 111wrc+, 3.7war650
6. LF Sanchez 153pa, .315obp, 106wrc+, 2.1war650
7. SS Clement 224pa, .311obp, 99wrc+, 2.6war650
8. CF Varsho 214pa, .296obp, 98wrc+, 2.7war650
9. SS Gimenez 214pa, .302obp, 89wrc+, 2.7war650

B. UT Schneider 38pa, .326obp, 103wrc+, 1.7war650
B. OF Barger 46pa, .312obp, 105wrc+, 1.4war650
B. IF Urias 51pa, .321obp, 98wrc+, 2.5war650
B. C Valenzuela 116pa, .285obp, 80wrc+, 2.2war650

X. UT Pinango 66pa, .298obp, 88wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Straw 56pa, .295obp, 73wrc+, 1.2war650
X. IF Sosa 48pa, .274obp, 82wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C MacIver 2pa, .279obp, 72wrc+, 0.0war650

X. OF Schreck 3pa, .319obp, 96wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Clase 31pa, .294obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF McAdoo 8pa, .289obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war650
X. UT Keys 33pa, .288obp, 81wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Martin 3pa, .293obp, 76wrc+, 0.0war650

Minnesota had a fire sale last year and is competing this year, I'd like to see the jays follow that path - with 3 WC spots it's easier to retool. At least get below the CBT.

Twins are 51-53, not where we want to be.
bWAR, Buxton 3.2 Jeffers 2.1 Kody Clemens 1.7 Larnarch 1.6

All vets. If they had kept more they would actually make the playoffs.

Getting below the CBT seems like a huge long shot, but I hope that's the direction if they sell. Bob Nightengale mentioned that the Phillies are interested in Hoffman. That's one way to get closer to ducking under the tax penalties. If they don't want to trade Varland and Rogers, then fine, but Hoffman lost the closer role and is an expensive 7th inning option now, so at the very least sell high there. Would adding Hoffman, Straw, and Sanchez to Springer/Gausman/Bieber/Varsho get them close to going under? Seems that's at least a reasonable path to saving money without hurting the 2027 team.

Pretty sure the Jays are around 318M with a the tax penalty threshold set at 284 (you have to be $40M over the 244 CBT).

Since the season is 2/3 complete, they need to shed more than 113M dollars of annualized salary. I have a hard time seeing that happening.

They are not going to get under the apron, so we better hope they get lucky enough to finish top 6 in the lottery.

The FO will still sell what they can to minimise the tax. Owners (rightly) hate paying a huge tax bill for a team that stinks.

There is no player on the active roster whom I would be against trading.

Personally I'm hoping they play well enough for the games to matter down the stretch. To each their own.

Boston has gotten better notably because some poorly performing guys got hurt.
Mayer, Story, Crochet.

They also have a bunch of guys who get their value from their defense. Rafaela, Durbin being the key ones.

Gray has been very good 12-1 with a 2.48 ERA.
Early and Suarez are injured, so it gets thin after that.

We get Cease vs Gray on Saturday.

This is crucial series. A sweep here and they're alive and maybe should soft buy. Anything less than that, they need to sell. Jays might be able to get under next level of tax but it'd take a big sell. They'd be trading like 1/3 of the salary so trading Springer, Gausman, Hoffman, Varsho, and Bieber would take them down to like $280 area(depending when traded) think which would take them under $40M over ($284M) it's all very complicated though so may be wrong. I'm sure Jays are on top of it though.

The Jays were able to sneak under the tax thresholds in 2024 to avoid further penalties, and it involved them trading IKF to Pittsburgh, which is something I'm sure they didn't want to do given how much they valued him. I'm not sure what the numbers look like or how feasible it actually is, but it makes zero sense to be a heavy tax payor and incur all the penalties for a last place team. They knew that two years ago, and they know it now. It's just a matter of if they are willing to sell a little bit more than they want to in order to get below this time around.

"Personally I'm hoping they play well enough for the games to matter down the stretch. To each their own."

I would think that goes without saying for every Jays fan. There's nothing better than your team in a playoff race.

I am also thinking beyond selling, how the Jays are going to get a CF for next year and a few names I think are options. Colorado has McCarthy and Doyle who are both gettable for not much if you believe Doyle can bounce back. A's have Clarke and Bolte (Gelof has also played some CF) and have a ton of OFers. None of these guys are great or anything but I think getting an athletic and great defensive guy in CF with real speed would be nice and try to get some boppers at other positions.

Alcantara. Cubs are not giving him any run. Toronto should. Much more upside than someone like Doyle with a similar floor.

What is the benefit of having a salary below the tax threshold if your ownership is okay with paying the tax penalties? I ask further, what is the benefit if your FO has no evidence of developing better players by picking higher in the draft?

Has anybody considered the version of this team in 2027 that has a higher draft pick, far lower payroll and therefore saves the owner money but they do not draft or develop anybody special with the higher pick? This seems more realistic to me than the notion that trading everybody to get under a threshold to save money and select a better player in the draft will work or is realistic.

I'll vote for "Dodgers way" which Toronto is already trying to do but with less success. They haven't gotten the free agents the Dodgers have and they haven't developed or drafted like them but they're probably the next best franchise doing these two things after LA if you look at the last few years.

You want to fold that strategy on the hope that your team will perform better with less payroll??? If the idea is to spend and continually trade away players to reset the luxury taxes then that's an even worse idea. That's video game baseball.

I don't think the tax thing or really any budget thing is a factor for this year tbh. It's been priced in, and the ticket sales have probably covered and then some.

The tax decisions for next year are another matter. But I still expect the budget to be large next year.

I think we're probably still even in the picture when it comes to taking on overpriced contracts from another team for a grab bag of lesser pieces, tbh, if that player is prime aged or younger and signed for a bit.

The selling this year will be more about getting assets than shedding significant payroll, imo.

Nightengale suggests the phillies are in the market for a reliever and might be interested in bringing back Hoffman. I'm all for that, obviously.

Hmm... The Phillies also have a hole in CF - using a 22 year old Justin Crawford who is negative bWAR this year but hit 334/411/452 in AAA last year. Could they be interested in Varsho & Hoffman for Crawford? I'd go for that, but doubt the Phillies would unless they are desperate right now. They might need a starter too - Gausman or Bieber could push this over the top, maybe get a 2nd prospect too. IMO I'd rather the Jays push in a lot of chips to get a blue chip prospect who can help soon instead of a batch of lottery tickets. A contender like the Phillies with 5 regulars 30+ might want to win now badly enough to do it.

No Addison Barger this year, or some of next. He is to have elbow surgery, sounds like TJ or internal brace.

Hazel Mae
@thehazelmae
·
6m
Addison Barger's going to have surgery Monday on his elbow, and will be out for the season..

John Schneider is not sure yet if it's full Tommy John or the internal brace.
TJ would put him out 9 months, brace 6 months..

Now we hear that recovery time for a position player is six to nine months depending on the surgery. So he could be back for next season.

9 months would be through April.

What is the benefit of having a salary below the tax threshold if your ownership is okay with paying the tax penalties? I ask further, what is the benefit if your FO has no evidence of developing better players by picking higher in the draft?

Is this a serious post? Their last 3 first round picks have been Nimmala, Yesavage, and Parker. That is two kids who are currently Top 50 prospects in baseball, and a starter who helped carry them to the World Series last season. The difference between the 7th pick and the 17th pick this season was ~$2 million in bonus space. Last year they managed to land one of the bigger splashes in the draft by paying Blaine Bullard $1.7 million in the 12th round (an MLB record, by the way). Bullard is a big arrow-up prospect this season and is already a Top 10 prospect in the system; showing speed and power on top of defense in CF. In this most recent draft that just passed, they had the 2nd smallest bonus pool in the league with no pick in the 2nd round and yet they managed to come away with two Top 30-40 prospects according to most draft lists, while once again pulling off one of the biggest splashes in the Draft with Will Brick in the 4th round.

What are you even talking about here? This current scouting department has made strong picks at the top of the draft, and more importantly they have shown significant creativity to use their bonus money to land high-upside prospects well after the 1st round. So yes, they absolutely should be trying to preserve their draft picks and bonus pool given the recent success they have had on top of being nearly 10-games under .500 this year, with next season looking like a likely retooling year as well. The harsh luxury tax penalties are fine if you are the Dodgers and are competing for the World Series every year, but its a different story entirely when you are last place in your division and have all sorts of question marks for the following season. Its not like the 2027 Jays are one free agent signing away from competing again.

I don't understand the constant unsubstantiated commentary on their apparent inability to draft. Its not even substantiated. The 2024 draft had them land Yesavage, Stephen, King, and Keys with their first 4 picks, despite not having a pick higher than #20 overall. All 4 of those guys were/are Top 10 prospects in the system. Yesavage is already an MLB starter, Stephen was one of the biggest arrow-up players in the minors prior to being dealt for Bieber, Johnny King is a Top 5 prospect in this system, and Sean Keys is a huge arrow-up bat this season who is Top 10 in the system and played his way to an MLB call-up. This is not an insubstantial hit-rate for a team drafting 20th overall.

That’s not the impression I’ve gotten from many posters around here, 85bluejay. They’ve been licking their chops at a sell-off for well over a month.

Metafour perhaps I could be clearer. Obviously having no first round pick is not a good baseball front office strategy. Provided the FO is not abusing the overage and is able to avoid the draft pick penalty, I am wondering why anyone would prefer a team to stay below the tax threshold for financial penalty when the ownership group is more than okay to stomach the financial cost.

Regarding who the Blue Jays have picked in the drafts and my comment about development, they haven't shown any ability to pick better players with a top 10 pick than they have picking later in the first round. It shouldn't matter in my books if they spend a bunch of extra tax penalty money and draft at 20 compared to 10th overall and your comments just highlight this further.

My post was a response to 85BlueJay's post upthread calling for a fire sale similar to Minnesota's last year. It's not a response to Gleven, SK, etc's post for a rational call to try to dip down to reset the tax to save the draft penalty.

Clement at SS for the 2nd day in a row. I like it.

Varsho back in, but Straw stays in the lineup in RF, i guess cuz of the lefty on the mound even though i don't know there's actually a platoon advantage there.

No one is licking their chops for a sell off. The team ranks dead last or close to it in almost every important offensive category. Call a spade a spade. It’s not happening. Not this year. Accepting that isn’t the same as rooting for it. No one is doing the latter. Everyone is doing the former.

mmmm...i'm with 92-93 on this one.

So you’re rooting for the Jays to win tonight, SK in NJ?

I also think cheering for a payroll decrease is even more odd then usual when no one knows what the rules will be going forward with respect to payroll levels, draft picks, etc. with the CBA being up for negotiations this offseason.

If anything, that might be a reason to stock up on salary (in case there is a cap that grandfathers in existing salary/contracts) rather than worry about being over some theshhold (which may not even matter after this year).

It’s about minimizing risk, IMV, Michael. Well, no one knows what the future holds. The highest probability is that the current system continues rather than the implementation of a completely different system as you suggest. You’re right that it’s possible it could be advantageous to take on salary but if you do that and you’re wrong, you’re in an even worse place than now. The least risky thing to do would be to try to give yourself as much flexibility as possible for 2027.

Why would I root for a loss? My point has always been they are not a good team so they should sell, but if they won 20 in a row starting tonight then I’d be thrilled.

Stating something is going to become a sad truth is hardly licking ones chops. I will admit your massive rose-coloured glasses make you a better fan than some of us.

In the end, that impressive outfield assist throwing the runner out at home from RF earlier this spring during Barger's one game return cameo, ended up being very cool but unbelievably costly.

The Sox have been grinding out AB after AB tonight. Yesavage almost at 100 pitches through 4.

The Jays, if they wanted to avoid a sell off, really needed to make a statement this weekend. Game 1's seems to be 'start the sell off' - 4 singles, 1 double, 0 runs vs the Red Sox 4 runs. Sigh. I MUCH rather would see them start to rally and be the team they were, but it feels like that ship is gone, sunk and at the bottom of the ocean now. Listened to Deep Left Field which had a nice interview with Gausman who sounds very much like he wants to stay here for the rest of his career and has zero interest in leaving. Hopefully the Jays can resign him this winter - seems safe to say he'll be traded as contenders always want quality arms for the playoffs and the drive there and never have enough. I suspect Bieber and Gausman are gone, as is Hoffman. Varsho probably is too (gotta think a contender with a weakness in the OF will jump on him for defense and the odd homer). Others will go too, but not enough to shift the tax level. If the Jays get a top 6 pick then that pick is protected from dropping, but then their round 2 pick would drop 10 slots. Sadly that top 6 pick looks more likely by the day. 3 1/2 games 'behind' the A's for 6th worst overall, current #7. 6 games 'behind' the Rockies for dead last. I suspect no matter what the draft in '27 will follow the old rules, then whatever new rules are made will apply in '28 and beyond. Either way, the Jays are set for a higher pick than they've had recently, and much higher in rounds 2-20 which means more cash for bonus' and better players to draft. With the lottery system they could get a top 6 pick even if they finish 7th worst or better, just higher odds if you actually are in the worst 6.

Of course, while I typed that Okamoto hit a 3 run homer to try to get the Jays back. Hopefully 2 months from now I'll feel silly for speculating on a top 6 pick.

Based on the returns being speculated in the industry I don't know how much improvement the 2027 Jays would see by clearing out their veterans.

Are they giving us hope or about to break our hearts.

Oh no he's trying to keep it tied with the AAA pitchers.

Hope. There's still more than a third of the season left. I'm finally seeing Schneider manage this ball club like it matters. I love the aggressive pinch hitters (3 already).

Van Eyk with tie game in 8th is a signal about where they think the season is.

I mean what the heck is the manager thinking.

Rogers should have been available.

Literally a great managed game until Van Eyk. What on earth is Achneider thinking? His players are hauling ass and he's playing with fire saving his 2 best relievers to protect a lead that may not come. So frustrating.

Auto corrected Schneider

Schneider licking his chops for a sell off too from the looks of it. I have no idea why he used Rogers and Varland in the loss to Tampa on Wednesday. It cost him the chance to use them tonight. No foresight at all.

One of the consequences of your starter only going 4. It’s the old adage that when you keep going to the pen for reliever after reliever you’re eventually going to get someone who doesn’t have their best stuff.

Rogers threw 18 pitches on Wednesday and nine yesterday. 27 pitches over two days doesn't seem excessive.

That's all folks! Feel like that was the last glimmer of hope fading away.

I do give them credit - they tried hard but the pen was tired so Rogers/Varland weren't fully available. I suspect if they had the lead they'd have been used, but without there was no point. So frustrating. I feel the Jays are dead for '26, but if they win the next 2 they might put a thought into Atkins mind that there is a tiny glimmer of hope. But lets be real, there isn't. They'd need a streak like the Sox were just on - 10+ straight wins - just to get back into the race.

5 1/2 out of dead last, 6 1/2 out of the WC. Yeah, that sucks.

I'm a Schneider fan and defender but he's going to get absolutely roasted for that 8th inning for months, maybe years to come, and as of now I have nothing to offer.

I'd have gone Rogers three days in a row, I'd have probably tried to get 2 out of Varland, hell I'd have used Miles and resigned myself to activating Scherzer for Monday.

I get that Trey's only going 4 kinda trapped him into a bad choice, but Van Eck in the 8th vs the hottest team in baseball feels like the most bad bad choice

In the postgame interview Schneider said that Varland was available "but only in a save situation."

?????????

They are 10 games below.500 there is no way that they are going to use relievers on a third straight day (thereby breaking their season long rule about that) like it’s a playoff game. The situation feels desperate but it really isn’t in a pragmatic sense.

Now they're gonna use him down 5 in game 3 "because he needs the work".

"Varland was available "but only in a save situation.""

This is the reason I wasn't super excited about "making Varland the closer". Like yes, he's clearly our best pitcher, and who I want with the game on the line. But that explicitly doesn't mean just save situations!

It means just save situation when he's already thrown 2 days in a row.
No point in blowing his arm.
It's less of an issue with Rogers who doesn't throw that hard, but you never know..

There is the whole issue with selling pitchers, it's going to be a disaster if they don't have 5 starters.
Can they relay on Scherzer to stay in the rotation?

They can trade Gausman or Bieber only if there's a starting pitcher coming back and that would probably be most of the return.
Yeah they could pick up whoever on the waivers but what if the guy can only go 3 innings and put you in the hole by 6 runs?
Losing is hard and losing badly is no fun for anyone.

Meh not getting too worked up not using Varland in 8th because it would have been someone terrible in 9th and Jays lose anyway. Starter not being able to get deep is what killed them. Also, sandoval looked like he was throwing meatballs out there and Jays just couldn't hit him. This a team that is 10 games under. 500 and has a - 63 run differential. Make some trades and get better for next year.

Last nights loss dropped our playoff odds at BBRef from 2.3% to 2%.

On the bright side, they have our 2025 playoff odds at over 99.9$.

Okay after that performance and Schneider's "I don't care" comments I'm ready to punt this season. Bare minimum reset the draft penalty tax (shed 24 million). How hard will it be to get below the threshold? According to AI it says that they only have to trade 24 million or so and it's not pro rated to calculate against the CBT. So if they trade Gausman and Varsho they reset the draft penalty. If they trade Springer instead they reset the draft penalty. The pro rated amount of salary is not what needs to be traded as the CBT is determined at end of season based on total AAV not on portion paid. Therefore if Cleveland traded for Springer they would increase their total payroll for CBT calculation by his AAV salary and Blue Jays could remove that total from theirs.

First, is this accurate? Second, while it makes it easier to reset the draft penalty for next year it also makes it harder for most contending teams to trade for high salary players unless they have lots of room in their payroll before coming up to the tax. Assuming teams like the NYY and Phillies don't want to pay more penalties/draft loss for next year it means teams like the White Sox, Rays, Res Sox for example are ideal trade partners, well, besides two of them being in-division.

Dalimon, that isn't accurate at all. Salaries are pro-rated and it's not as simple as simply just dumping Gausman and Varsho to get under various CBT levels.

If that was the case, teams would just dump a big contract every year close to the trade deadline.

The crazy thing about this season is Kaz currently leads all hitters on the team with a 110 wRC+. I went back 20 seasons and there isn't anything remotely similar where our "best" hitter was only at a 110 wRC+. In pretty much every other season, even extremely bad ones, we've always had a couple guys at least in the 130-140 range.

Chris I had an inkling I was reading BS. Thanks for clarifying. So what would it take to reset the draft penalty? How much would they need to trade if done today?

Ai told me the same thing and then I quoted it something and they said "actually you're right" Very AI experience. As someone pointed out earlier, new deal will mean different rules anyway so I'd say priority is getting best prospects possible even if you take on salary to do so.

I saw it suggested somewhere that the Jays would have to shed something like 113 million in total (not prorated) payroll to get beneath any meaningful CBT threshold.

Really doesn't seem obtainable like it was during the last sell-off in 2024.

I used a better AI model which is now telling me the Jays need to roughly shave off 80,000,000 of salary AAV(pro rated amount is roughly 28 million) today to get below the draft penalty amount, not including any AAV of players coming back or getting called up with league minimum.

That means you'd have to trade a significant chunk of this roaster like Gausman, Springer, Varsho, Bieber and Hoffman. Hell, I guess 85BlueJay was right after all.

"So what would it take to reset the draft penalty? How much would they need to trade if done today?"

Using the Roster Resource estimate (almost $319mm) you need to lose $35mm which pro-rated to a full season is roughly $105mm worth of annualized payroll.

Free agents (excluding injured)-
Springer - 24,166,1667
Gausman - 23,000,000
Bieber - 16,000,000
Vatsho - 10,750,000

That's almost $74mm

Say you shed Sanchez (6,800,000) and Hoffman (12,666,667) now you're at also, now you've passed $93 million.

Can't trade Berrios or Santander and even if you somehow traded the three injured FA pitchers you can't get there. Can't/won't trade Cease or Vlad, not likely to trade Rogers AND Kirk (it would take both) that leaves one card to play:

Find a sucker to take Gimenez ($15,571,249).

I'm not going to say it's impossible. But it's an incredibly improbable to trade all seven, take on no money (this year) at all and Gimenez be one of them.

I think your number is too high. They only need to lose about 28 million worth of AAV pro rated to get below the overage they are currently sitting at to save their 2027 draft (remove the penalty).

Thinking further about the complaints Schneider will get about the bullpen choices:

Here's how he could have saved himself the grief-

fewer people would complain if he had put Van Eck in the 6th instead of Fisher, then Fisher, then Hoffman. If Van Eck had given up one or even 2 runs in the 5th before the Jays had even one, no one would bat an eye. Then it would have been, at worst, a comeback that never caught up and everyone would shrug. In reality it's the same outcome but people would judge it differently.

Pursue that thought further and you could imagine a world where, since they were trailing, they went Yesavage - Macko - Van Eck - Fluharty - Hoffman - Fisher (if necessary) and no one would have voiced a peep of criticism even with the same final score.

I'm not saying it would have been a better or worse strategy, folks can draw their own conclusions. But the reaction would have been a lot different.

You also could have left Yesavage in for 1 more inning.

I haven’t actually seen a huge outcry about Schneider’s decision making last night but if there is I don’t really understand it. Yesavage has been getting crushed all year 3rd time through the lineup (ERA almost 12) and after 75 pitches. They also aren’t going to have him throw 110-115 pitches in a game when they are 10 games below .500. He was going to have to bring in Van Eyk at some point. I understand the frustration. Another frustrating loss in a long string of frustrating losses. I take solace in the fact that if Schneider had done the same things last year Van Eyk would have thrown 2 shutout innings and struck out all 6 batters. It’s cosmic rebalancing. I’m cool with that. I totally understand if others aren’t. It is frustrating.

Just because I haven't seen it mentioned: Schneider explicitly said that Rogers wasn't available last night.

The frustration stems from the usage of Fisher in the 6th down 3 with Rogers unavailable. People think that's the spot for Van Eyk, because if the Jays do get back in the game they were going to need 3 innings from Hoffman, Fisher, and Varland anyway. The flip side to the argument is that you want to keep it a 3-run game to give your offense a chance to get back in to the game, which ultimately happened.

I often state in here how much I hate the "needs work" usage of top relievers. If a guy can't be used three days in a row, and often not thrice in four nights (depending on the number of pitches), they shouldn't come into games down 3 runs when your bullpen is made up of, at most, four arms that you trust in high leverage. I still can't believe Schneider left Varland in a 5-run game earlier this season. Days later they had the chance to get over .500 and he was unavailable and Rogers blew the game, and the team hasn't looked back (forward?) since.

All this talk about shedding salary misses the mark for me. The returns on the players traded will be significantly higher if the Jays eat their salaries. They can infuse just as much talent into the system by keeping their payroll as they can by shedding a third of it.

Relievers are going full max effort.
They're not going to be sharp if they don't pitch regularly and that's going to frustrate everybody including the relievers throwing meatballs and walking the side.

The return on players is always marginal. Who did they get last time (with a whole lot more to sell).
The biggest return was for Kakuchi: Loperfido, Bloss and Wagner who was flipped for Valenzuela.
Bloss hasn't helped. Loperfido is at 0.2 WAR this year.
They're not getting a good reliever back since that's what every team buys at the deadline.
The infield is set, so are they getting a dozen outfielders?

Gimenez has 3 more years at 23M each.
I wouldn't mind seeing Kasevich in Toronto.

Sounds like Bichette isn't happy in NY. If he's going to opt out (can he truly be that unhappy?) then NY should be desperate to move him to get something in return before he walks.

Yes you could have saved Fisher for leverage and brought in Van Eyk in the 6th. But Fisher, who was excellent in the first two months of the season, has been bad in June and July, I’m really not trying to defend Schneider’s general bullpen usage. I think he’s mediocre at it. He’s a slave to the save rather than using his best relievers in the highest usage. He also uses his high leverage relievers too often with comfortable leads but he’s not alone in that. But last night most of the available choices were bad.

Four 2-strike hits in a row by the Jays in the 3rd. All four came around to score.

Dalimon, part of the problem is that roster resource and sportrac have different numbers. Roster resource says about 319, in which case TamRa’s numbers are about right, according to my back of the envelope math. Sportrac has the number at 309, in which case your $80M estimate is pretty close.

It’s not easy because the payroll number is not only salary. For some stupid reason MLB includes “benefits” in this number, so using salary alone isn’t enough from a pure dollars perspective. It’s hard to pin down the exact number because we don’t (or at least I don’t) have any knowledge as to what the auxiliary costs are for each player.

The quality of the ABs are just so much better today than they have been in weeks. It’s understandable that the results vary from game to game but it’s been weird how the quality of the ABs have varied so wildly throughout the season.

Cease is great.

Isn't there any way to have a player's AAV who does not spend any time playing removed from the calculation? Seems unfair that players like Santander, Ponce, Berrios and Garcia will count (about 46 million!)?

That was amazing stuff. Only 3 balls in play over 95. Hardest his was 100.1.
13Ks. 1 hit. Incredible stuff.

Games this enjoyable have been few and far between. Cease was masterful.

Nice.

Such a bizarre season honestly… take a team that went to the World Series, add Cease, Kaz and Rogers, all of whom have been either good to excellent… and take 10 steps back.

Honestly, I do feel a lot of it really does up end falling on Vlad, and then some on Kirk, Barger, Springer, Varsho.

Yeah, the front office won the offseason but it was all for naught.

Barger, Kirk, Springer and Varsho all got injured to various degrees.
You can add Pounce and Berrios who could both have helped.
Lauer might have been decent if he hadn't gotten sick, missed 1 game, pitched poorly once back and showed a bad attitude.

Yimi Garcia threw a clean inning for Dunedin today, 14 pitches, up to 95 mph.

Jesus Sanchez is also playing in the game, he is 0-2 with a walk.

Vladdy and Springer are now both league average 100wrc+ hitters!!

This week J cursed this team twice while sitting on the Lakeshore waiting 1.5 hours to get to the Dome only to see junk. I rebounded yesterday then abandoned after the game. I'm back, until tomorrow.

Still think it's silly how the manager is using Varland. He was up yesterday and again today...just bring him in if he's up.

I know Siddall isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but I think he’s far and away the best colour man for analysis. Early on he identified that, although Cease’s velocity was down in the early innings, his slider was very sharp. Later, he identified that the shadows were going to be a big issue for the Sox given how sharp the slider was. He reminds me a bit of Rance Mullinicks who taught me quite a bit about baseball in his time in the booth but was probably a bit short on entertainment value (and homerism).

Nigel, I think that's bang-on opinion. I know Schulman is great but I find him rehashing too many things during a ballgame that is information "surrounding" the game rather than the game itself. I thoroughly enjoy good play-by-play, true play by play with minimal words and respect for the sounds of the game. I also enjoyed going to the game and enjoying the sounds of the game but Rogers Centre has removed that experience with music blasted between every pitch (not exaggerating). Every pitch.

Too many times now I catch myself wondering why Schulman is talking about an article or a story he read or numbers that were presented to him earlier in the day. It's obvious he has some preparatory notes and loose script to follow. I think Siddal comes off stronger because he simply doesn't talk or reference any of this stuff he just calls the game or "comments" on the game, not the club, not the salaries, not the mood of the team, etc. He's also critical of players which is awesome and refreshing.

By the way, for anyone wondering why I have so many typos in some posts and none in others it's simply a difference between desktop posting with a keyboard versus touchscreen on an iphone with "autocorrect," enabled or turned off.

And it begins

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

BREAKING: The Boston Red Sox are trading left-hander Connelly Early to the Washington Nationals for infielder Curtis Mead, sources tell ESPN.

Boston needed hitting, Nats starting pitching. Good trade both ways.

`

Young hitter for young pitcher. Seems like a fun trade.

Injured and unproductive but still getting prime spot in the line up: Daulton Varsho against a lefty: Daulton Varsho.

I like it a lot better for the nationals than the red sox.

Agreed Shoeless - when I saw the trade I was wondering what the Sox were thinking. It is so hard to find quality young pitching and they traded him for a guy having a career year at 25 but lifetime 98 OPS+ despite the 135 this year. Mead has big time Straw & Gimenez red lights on this season.

Jays quiz at FG today. 6 pitchers have been 20 game winners for the Jays. Who was 1st to do it?

Jack Morris?

Nats turned Mead into Jose lite. Made changes that have allowed Mead to turn into a pull heavy fly ball hitter, which is great with the Monster. Will it stick is the question.

Yeah Morris was 1st. Was waiting for someone to recite all 6.

Finally, a quiz question I can answer - Halladay, Hentgen , Happ, Clemens, Wells and Morris.

Varsho's slightly below average on the year, but suddenly hot again this past week. Not really "undproductive". And he's never had an issue vLHP.


on another note, it might be time to move Springer back up to leadoff. He's been back at around a 120wrc+ for over 2 months now.

.738 OPS in June.
He's having a great July.

Seems odd for Lukes to lead off vs a LH while Clement is down at 7

Lukes is hitting .118 vs LH this year

Maybe not expecting Suarez to pitch deep fresh off the IL.

I've been by the dugout here in Boston 2/3 of three. If the read on the dugout is any indication the players seem to be interacting in a way akin to 2024. They have we know they are in sell mode vibes.

I'm just appreciating what may be Gausman's last start as a Jay.

That's a 110wrc+ for June for springer. Nothing wrong with that. And along with a great july he had a great last couple weeks in May too. Solid 120wrc+ or so for over 2 months.

I'm not sure if anything annoys me more in baseball than bad challenges. First inning, 2 ours, nobody on. Don't challenge!!!! It doesn't matter. Jays need a stricter kangaroo court obviously.

Varsho has obviously been really struggling recently but I don’t see any reason to be surprised he’s in the lineup. He’s at 93 wRC+ for the year and he’s a 97 wRC+ for his career. This is just who he is as a hitter.

The vibes around the team weren’t great when I saw them in Seattle. It feels like the team knew it was done a while ago.

varsho has 5 hits this series.

He was hitting for a sweet 23 wRC+ for July prior to today:)

I’m not sure this is going to be Gausman’s last start as a Jay but if it is I’ll just say he’s been one of my favourite Jays. There aren’t many very good starters who get by with essentially 2 pitches. Plus, he’s been all class.

Gausman has been great in every way. Been a great pitcher and clearly loves the team and city.

if we do trade Gausman and Springer, I think we could re-sign them at a solid price in the offseason.

Coming into play today 145 players have hit double digit HR's, so almost 5 per team.

28 teams have at least 4 10+ HR hitters. Diamondbacks have only 3 players with at least 10 HR's.

Jays have 2 - Okamoto and Springer.

"White Flag" Little

update: very good chance varland/rogers have to pitch today cuz they "need the work".

The Jays have a 74wRC+ this month which should go down today, good for last in the league. Pretty clear their issues have very little to do with Little or other bullpen decisions. That’s a 74 wRC+ with Springer and Vlad playing better too.

Just saying putting Little in to pitch is pretty well the equivalent of having Myles Straw pitch. manager has given up.

Brendan Little still has among the highest Stuff+ on the pitching staff, and the team is 10 games under and clearly not really getting any better. Its a lost season. There is a non-trivial chance that Little figures something out (even if its really small), so the idea that he should never be put into the game is foolish. This is the perfect season to throw him out there and see if they can tweak or figure something out.

This team is like -62 in run differential now. They are not good, period. This idea that they're just one win away from going on some crazy run and therefore using Little is blasphemous is absurd. No, I really don't care that they used Little in a game that they were already losing 3-0 (wherein it was pretty clear that they weren't going to score).

Scherzer starts tomorrow. Its his first audition for a trade.

Couldn’t agree more with meta there. Little has shown improvement in Buffalo and the offence was showing 0 life as always. Also, he came in a situation where at least one run was highly likely to score anyway.

It blows my mind that a portion of the fan base thinks this team is one day away from rattling off a 12 game win streak.

To further add to Chris' point: Little was brought in with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. Putting in a reliever who can potentially strike the next batter out is actually correct, given that you're either going to get a strikeout, or very likely concede a run regardless. Oh no, he failed and its now 6-0 instead of 4-0. The offense was surely just about to blow the lid off and tie the game lol.

You can poo poo the small decisions if you like.

As so often happens, this series featured 1 close game and 2 not close games.

Myself, i think using our best RP instead of our worst in that one close game could have easily flipped the series.

Not saying Little should never be used, but using him has gotten to the point of waving a white flag, hence my nickname for him.. He has great Stuff+. He also has a 17.28 ERA that actually went down by only giving up 1 run in 2/3 of an inning.

But yeah, the offence is the major reason we keep ending up in these holes. It's bad at pretty well everything except hitting singles where we're top 5 and doubles where we are around middle of the pack.

The reason people don't care about not using Varland much is that even if Varland pitched a scoreless 8th, the game would be tied with Van Eyk pitching the 9th and would have given up runs then. Jays weren't likely to win that game if Varland had pitched either.

The problem with the team has been offense all season. They just can't hit and you can't win when you can't hit. Hopefully, they can get a bunch back in trades because this team needs a massive overhaul offensively.

people do care, of course. you don't, but that's you.

the jays just lost a series where they were tied in runs and vastly outhit the other team - they did this despite the fact they didn't use their best relievers while their opponent did.

Jays team xwOBA ranks by season (2016–2026):

2016: 4th
2017: 16th
2018: 7th
2019: 20th
2020: 6th
2021: 1st
2022: 4th
2023: 11th
2024: 14th
2025: 5th
2026: 30th

Not sure why you’re focussing on a 3 game series ugly instead of a much larger sample size of the full season. The offence is literally atrocious.

I'm more annoyed with starting Lukes.
This is almost the same lineup with saw against Gray.

The lineup against Sandoval on Friday was
Clement
Guerrero
Okamoto
Springer
Kirk
Schneider
Varsho
Urias
Straw.

They could play Springer in LF and DH Urias.
Gimenez has hits lefty well this year but Lukes has not.
.378 OPS before the game.

Using Varland in that Wednesday game when the team was losing to the Rays just because he hadn't pitched in 3 days was a much bigger issue than using Little here, IMO. There was a 3 PM game the next day. Aside from potentially needing Varland less than 20 hours later (which they did), they easily could have just waited to use him in that game to begin with since it would have left him available to pitch Friday against the Red Sox. Even without hindsight that was an easy decision.

At this point, as others have said, the season is done. There's no miracle coming out of this no matter how hard we can hope for one. If they were a middle of the pack offensively then maybe you could reasonably hold out some hope, but this is legitimately the worst offensive in the league by almost every important measure. Using Little or anyone isn't going to change anything.

I get that everyone has given up. Some of you gave up long ago.

But you'd hope that manager wouldn't have given up when we were within 5gms of a playoffs spot.

Yes, the offense has sucked this year, but you can still win games when the offense sucks.

and there's not going to be some major overhaul to the hitting - the offense still projects as a well above average offense. They'll still try to add more hitters, obviously.

Sportsnet
@Sportsnet
·
1h
"I hope I don't go anywhere. I don't wanna go anywhere."

Kevin Gausman on his future in Toronto.

Going by BR monthly splits... sOPS+

• March/April: 92 25th place
• May: 97 16th place (some hope)
• June: 92 21st place (sigh)
• July: Pre today: 72 29th place (Seattle doing worse)

Ugh.

Pitcher OPS+ by month...

• March/April: SP: 98 14th; RP: 93 8th
• May: SP: 92 11th; RP: 92 11th - consistent there.
• June: SP: 119 26th; RP: 83 9th (pen saved them)
• July: SP: 78 2nd (Tigers #1); 104 20th (pen died)

So clearly the pitching has been doing its job. Starters really coming to life this month (thank you Cease - 13 sOPS+ this month, Rogers an insane -51)

The offense has been bottom half every month, not much hope there. OF is the most obvious area needing improvement (97 sOPS+ overall - 16th in MLB, LF 107 12th, CF 99 13th, RF 86 21st), although SS has been ugly too (80 wRC+ is 23rd in MLB - Boston and Tampa both worse somehow while contending). 2B is 5th, 1B 26th, C 24th, DH 25th.

I see ranking more important than actual wRC+ as it tells us where the Jays are vs everyone else. An OF who can hit and field would be nice (Pinango can't field, Lukes & Sanchez at 108 are the only OF'ers with wRC+ over 100. Schneider and Straw are at 61 to trail it all.

Using Varland in that Wednesday game when the team was losing to the Rays just because he hadn't pitched in 3 days was a much bigger"

Except this is the real world and different pitchers need different treatment. He had three days rest and maybe he needs regular work to stay sharp and you don't know what's coming so you put him into a close game. I get everyone wants the best relievers to only pitch in games they need to and never pitch in games that aren't close but that just has never happened and never will. The Jays were not going to win the Red Sox game regardless because their bullpen was shot. Even if Varland pitches, it doesn't matter. They had to go to Van Eyk the next inning anyway and they were going to lose the game. The issue was that Yesavage couldn't even go 5 so bullpen was stretched with Jays not having day off in a while (and Gausman not even going 4 earlier in week). Jays have worst offense in baseball. That's why they are where they are.

Not everyone has given up. 92-93 was still a believer, recently accusing those who had as taking delight in a sell-off. Couple of others as well recently were still believers.

Next series should be interesting? The highest scoring offence in baseball vs the lowest scoring.

However our pitching ranked 13th by ERA as of this morning, theirs 27th. So our pitching is twice as good! :)

I was a believer through the ASB. But after the post-ASB games I'm resigned that it is too unlikely to make it to realistically expect it. I'm still not pro-forcing a sell off, but exploring trading anyone who's on their last year of contract makes sense. But I wouldn't do it unless there is real quality coming back, not just sell for the point of selling nor out of some salary level goal. I'd also think about maybe DL'ing Vlad to see if some time can unlock the hitting.

But yeah, a 10 game win streak or whatever would be enough to have them back in the final wild card spot, since the 3rd spot is basically 500, so it isn't impossible, but it seems unlikely because for the most part the Jays have been playing like they deserve to be losing. But there are positive signs of life in Springer playing well again and a number of the SP being excellent, but until consistent good defense and/or reasonable team offense shows up, this isn't a 500 team, let alone a playoff team.

Yeah, right now the Jays are 10 games sub 500, 5 1/2 out of the Wild Card, 6 1/2 out of dead last in the majors.

To get to 500 they'd need to go 33-23 the rest of the way, a 95 win pace over a full season. Does this team look like they can do that over 56 games? Not to me right now. I see the parts, the potential and I'd love them to live up to it, but no sane GM would bet on that. And odds are it'll take 85 wins, not 81 to get in. So 37-19 or a 107 win pace - if Vlad hits like he did in the playoffs, if Gausman reverts to his peak form, if Okamoto gets hot and stays hot then it is possible, unlikely, but possible.

I'm 100% certain Atkins and the staff are hunting down best trades for Bieber, Gausman, and anyone else who isn't part of the long term plans. They will hold off as long as possible on executing any deals though, hoping for more and to keep fans & players from quitting. I remember the 1995 debacle when they dumped Cone mid-season and Alomar sulked the rest of the year. One of many reasons Ash was the worst GM.

I suspect Max's start Monday will be critical too - the Nationals are just 1 game out of the playoffs and could probably use him and would be a place he'd probably be willing to go. The Tigers are 3 1/2 out, so there is a chance there too. Gotta think the Jays would make sure if they trade Max it'd be somewhere he wants to go, not to a random team as that'd be likely to create troubles when going after free agents in the future I'd think. Odds are any return would be small for him regardless so you'd want it to be as a 'last playoff shot' for him, not so much to improve the team.

While I'm strongly interested in Atkins holding firm that he's got going to let guys go just to get some Cutter Coffey type - might as well play it out as trade just to get warm bodies - I do think he'll be able to make productive deals.

If the Jays keep losing more than they win, then for the next week I'm going to root for the Tigers and Twins to have good results. Why?

Because if they don't sell the SP market gets a LOT more thin and the Jays hold two of them.

KC is stubborn on their guys, the Angles have been historically. If they're pricing themselves out of making a deal that leaves Peralta, Ray, Gausman & Bieber at the top of the market. Singer has been better lately but the underlying numbers are not supportive, Holmes is still hurt, Marlins owner wants to keep Alcantara. There might be surprises but it matters when you take Ryan, Skubal and Mize off the board. Plus, none of those come with more years of control so there's no advantage among them on that score.

(as it happens, the list of free agent pitchers the Jays would covet in the off--season isn't THAT long but that's a topic for another day)

The idea of being able to trade a lot of guys for legit value isn't unrealistic but you'd have to hope they get players back that they could plug in right away, that likely comes with no more risk than acquiring intriguing prospects that might not make it either.

For example, if I could trade Gausman (maybe with Straw?) to the Cubs for Alcantara (with or without a minor league sweetner) I could plug him into the OF right away and see if the bat came around. You might have your regular CF for whenever Varsho leaves. Might not but that goes without saying.

Here's another idea - if the Phillies are interested in Hoffman...would they move off of Andrew Painter to get him? Do my scouts think Painter can be recovered? I'd be discussing it.

That sort of thing.

There's not THAT many big upside minor leaguers that are in the system of buyers (other than the Dodgers) that they would easily let go of (would the Brewers trade Jett Williams for Bieber?). Good time to be creative.

Those are on the right track for trade ideas TamRa. A team like the Rays has several AAA starters in their ~Top 15. A guy like Ty Johnson would interest me (very nice underlying data and pretty good results in AAA this season).

I wouldn't mind hanging on to Gausman and Bieber if they can be resigned to short-term contracts. If Gausman is happy to stay for a retirement season and take #4 or #5 money that'd be a win. Bieber's free agency case is so tied to his last 10 starts (Matthew Boyd style) that he might also take a discount with performance clauses and/or player opt-outs.

The way that Gausman and Bieber have both performed this season, it's unclear to me what kind of starting arm or OF prospect you'd get in return - perhaps a pitching prospect with a 4th or 5th starter ceiling that might not even emerge for another year or two? Similarly for OF prospects. However, both have a #4 floor for next year in my opinion with some considerable upside.

Even worse is that the free agent SP pool looks like a bit of a dumpster fire outside of Skubal. Are we happy to go into the season hoping for Spencer Miles, Cody Ponce, Bowden Francis and Jose Berrios to give us 300-ish innings from the #4 and #5 hole? Berrios might not even be recovered until mid-season at the earliest.

I'm not sure that it's that easy to resign a player once you trade him. I think it shows them that you're less a family and more a business making it easier for them to go elsewhere. Both Gausman and Bieber have raved about the family-like atmosphere with the Jays. This is an intangible cost of trading for a lottery ticket of a #4-#5 starter ceiling prospect that I think is misvalued by fans.

As for batters, I think the Jays would really benefit from having 2 guys who are dependable .280 BA, .350 OBA with 25 2B and 20-25HR kind of production. It turns out these are hard to come by. Seiya Suzuki? Two of this type of hitter could allow Vlad to be bumped down to #4 or #5 in the line-up or to put him in the #2 slot with the understanding that he should just try to be a .390 OBA guy and not worry about hitting more than 15 HRs.

June, I'd want to see those sOps values compared to last year. I'll guess the biggest changes are in the last 3 rankings:  DH, 1B and C were the huge drop-offs this year. We probably dropped some in the OF, but it feels like the bigger drop there was defense, not offense, but I could be wrong. Same with IF. 

In KW visiting family this week. Almost thought about taking in a game, but only Friday is a home game and I'm not braving TO traffic on a Friday to watch this team. Guess my highlight will have to be taking the Gordie Howe bridge back to DTW (assuming it opens on time). Also 110 km/h on the 401 (near Windsor)  - what a world! 

Gausman has been here a while and has grown some roots.
Bieber is a bit different.
He'll probably sign where he gets the best offers regardless.

Kevin Gausman was one of the few Blue Jays players to purchase an actual home and in the suburbs of Toronto. His kids go to school here and he lives here year round. Springer and most others by comparison have their homes in the US and use condos near the ball park.

Shane Bieber is a religious guy from California and wants to be able to go boating all the time.

I would be Gausman comes back to the Jays next year or simply retires and continues living in Toronto with his family. Shane Bieber will likely go to a coastal team unless offered a fair contract by Toronto, but I'm wondering how these guys think Toronto will be able to compete next year with this offense. Gausman mentioned Vlad and Bo were big draws for him to sign here in the first place. Not sure Vlad has that same draw now with this seasons performance.

Kevin Gausman was one of the few Blue Jays players to purchase an actual home and in the suburbs of Toronto. His kids go to school here and he lives here year round.

According to an interview from last year, they live in Toronto in the summer but Louisiana the rest of the year.

Springer bought a home here, too - there were stories about him selling it earlier this year - though I don't think his family moved here for the season.

I haven’t listened to the chatter around baseball or the ink spilled over what the team does here in a week or so. All I know is that Rogers is going to want to keep this team as competitive as possible for as long as possible. That’s the message Shapiro is getting, that’s what Atkins will get down the chain. Thus, they will not just trade Gausman or Springer or Varsho or whoever just to said they sold unless the return makes them better this year or in the future. I doubt there care about getting under any competitive balance tax. I doubt they care about any mid level prospect they get back in any “sell” trade they make. I would say most of their energy will be spent on addressing needs in the here and now. That means they should and will be in on anyone, regardless of what their record is.

"There's not THAT many big upside minor leaguers that are in the system of buyers (other than the Dodgers) that they would easily let go of (would the Brewers trade Jett Williams for Bieber?)."

I think there are plenty of high upside guys you can go for. Just guys that also come with risk. Like, look at MLB Pipeline at guys in the 75-100 range that have big upside on contenders. Hartman (Braves, Canadian), Davalan (Dodgers, also Canadian), Renteria (Phillies), Adamczewski (Brewers), Murf gray (Pirates), and more...Not saying any of these guys will be available but this is the kind of player I'd be going for AA or lower with real potential. I just don't trust the Jays not to go for guys close to the majors who project as more up and down guys or low level starters. I get that it's the best you could do for say IKF or Justin Turner but Springer, Bieber, and Gausman all have more value than that. Jays don't need someone who could turn out to be a 1.5 WAR player next year. They need someone who could be a 3 WAR player in the future. Pitchers are a bit different as their development is so unpredictable so I am more interested in stuff than level. I don't want someone who throws 92 but spins the ball well or anything. The chances of that person being a major leaguer are so slim. Give me someone with a 98 MPH fastball who needs to work on a secondary pitch or control.

Petey if that's accurate then damn this FO for waiting this long to address major holes.

I would also add, despite the disappointing performance coming out of the break, I still consider them in the wildcard race. It is an extremely unique year, in that 80-85 wins will very likely be enough to get in the playoffs in the American League. If the team is still 5.5 out or less before next Sunday, you're not trading Gausman and Springer. Rogers is spending an ungodly amount on this team, and they went to the World Series last year.

So in short, despite the playoff odds at this point in time, they're very likely not giving up on the year, and are more likely to add a good major league player (or two) by this time next week. So if you don't like good players, and enjoy the "last time for x pitching in Toronto" and that sad sop narrative, I think you'll be dissappointed.

I hate that talk, and am glad there's still lots of time left and that they value this unqiue chance to keep things interesting.

Petey, this team is not in the wild card hunt. No, 80-85 wins is not likely to get you into the playoffs. You fail to realize that other teams in the AL are starting to play better over sustained periods, whereas the Jays have shown zero improvement. They are dead last in the league in basically every offensive category in July. They are 3-7 over their last 10 games coming out of the all star break.

In order for you to argue that they are about to go on some historic run, there needs to be something evident to suggest that a switch has flipped. Are you sure you are watching the same games as everyone else?

Furthermore, several of the teams that are "close" to the Jays in the standings are actually clearly better teams. Detroit is technically only 2 games up, but they are +28 in run differential on the season, while the Jays are -62. New York and Boston who currently hold two of the three WC spots are +84 and +46. These are CLEARLY better teams.

You are delusional my friend. This team has no chance, and they WILL be sellers.

Also, Mark Shapiro wasn't born yesterday. Even if Rogers implies that they want to do something stupid to try to somehow save this season, Shapiro has more than enough tenure to tell them to pipe down. This isn't a rookie President/GM combo.

If you just do some basic math:

The Jays are 48-58 and have 56 games remaining.

Lets say that 85 wins is enough to get you a WC spot this year. For them to get to 85 wins, they'd have to play at a .661 win percentage pace over the remainder of the season, or 37-19. A .661 win percentage over a full season is 107 wins. So they basically need to play at an absurdly ELITE level just to get to 85 wins.

And how do we propose that this is going to happen? This is a team that doesn't do anything well offensively. They are not a team that has a a bunch of star players who are all hurt and are going to come back from injury and totally change the makeup of the team. The pitching is a major question mark still; as proven by the fact that you are about to watch 57 year old Max Scherzer starting a game against one of the hottest offenses in baseball. This is the team that is going to go ~37-19 to finish out the year? The team that can't score runs, and is running out bullpen games multiple times a week?

Metafour, you're not being rational. It's hard to imagine the team as-is making the Wild Car playoffs. It's not very hard to imagine the team improving and making the wild card playoffs.

First of all, you need to compare and consider what the stats will be rest of the way and not based on the season to date. Why? Because he's suggesting they will be adding to the team. The whole point of adding is to improve the team and post a positive run differential the rest of the way.

Really not hard to consider the possibility that they can be a better team on paper and play better to pass the teams in front of them for the wild card. To call out posters for being delusional while you can only seem to consider a fake reality where the team doesn't sell but also improves 0%...that's a bit delusional. I cannot fathom a scenario where they do not sell off and do not improve at the same time. In that scenario I would agree that it would be delusional to think they would play better and make the playoffs...but I don't think that case is very likely.

Trading for Skubal, strictly to illustrate a point here, likely moves you 8-12 games ahead of Detroit in the starts he would pitch for Toronto instead of Detroit. That's a big difference. Joe Ryan is now injured and that will impact the Twins just like Buxton their start player. Toronto needs to plug in multiple holes immediately and improve ASAP to make it happen but it is doable which I think is Petey's point.

Now if you think it's foolish for this FO to invest for the short term at the cost of the future since it will cost you some of your top prospects to get difference-maker players right now, well then I think you will be joining the majority of opinion here at Da Box.

My last post was in reference to your 2nd to last post. Your second post after that illustrates why it's still a bit foolish for this FO to consider the "trade and compete" model. They really needed to win 2/3 or more against Boston to help that strategy in my opinion and then they could try to improve the team. Instead, they've looked lousy, fell further behind BOS and also saw BOS get better on offense with the Mead trade.

They'd really have to trade for a Skubal and Trout and 1-2 bullpen pieces to significantly improve to try to make the wild card. Maybe it's not those two players but similar impact players. So while I argue against you I also side with the "no chance, they're done" critics. Just sucks.

I have no doubt the Jays will target players closer to the big leagues in trades. Their goal will be to be competitive in 2027 and in order to do that they'll need to add some minimum earning surplus value onto the big league roster. They simply don't have enough of it and it took them spending to the highest CBT threshold to build the 2026 team (so they are reaching a ceiling as far as being able to spend to compensate for lack of player development). I think we see at least a few moves where players either already with big league plate appearances or on MLB's doorstep come back in trades.

The key as others have said is to find a balance between upside and readiness. Alcantara is a good example of someone with upside who is big league ready, though comes with a lot of bust potential (high K's means the Jays are probably not interested but who knows). That's an example of mixing upside and big league ready. If it's more Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner types, then no thank you.

Dalimon, I am being completely rational.

Do you know realize many other teams are also going to be buyers? For the Jays to go into a hard buy-mode, they would be competing with how many other teams for acquisitions? Because the standings are so close, there are actually a LOT of teams that have WC fantasies. Its a sellers market this year, my friend.

So even if you want to imagine some half-baked scenario where they trade for Skubal, Ryan, Luis Arraez, and whoever else...are we imagining that no other team is also going to be bidding on these players? They're just all going to sit back and let the mighty Blue Jays scoop up all the difference makers? There are multiple competing teams with better farm systems than the Jays. So in the event of any bidding war, the Jays are not likely to out-muscle everyone else.

The funny thing is that Detroit is playing considerably better lately. They may not even be trading Skubal or Mize if things go well for them over the next ~7 days.

And what are we even suggesting here? A team that is 10-games under .500 is not going to be blowing up their farm system to trade for Skubal. No, I don't care that Rogers wants to win. Its not happening. You think they're going to wave Nimmala and Parker plus more to get Skubal and pray that they play at a 107 win pace the rest of the way? Why would they do that?

You have to base your analysis on reality. Yes, its technically a possibility that you may win the lottery any day now. Are you therefore going to be living out your life under the assumption that its likely to happen?

There have barely been any trades at all, dalimon. They have "waited" this long because I'm sure they expected guys like Barger to be back by now. Now that it's clear he's not, and he's going to miss a ton of time, I expect them to be aggressive in adding an outfielder.

If it were basically any other year, and the team was 10+ games out like they should be with the record they have, I'd say they'd be trading expiring contracts for whatever they could get. I'd even say if this team was a lower market team and the records and games out were the same, they'd be selling guys off. Like it or not the Jays are in a different stratosphere, and they aren't just going to punt a season to acquire prospects.

I'd say the the Jays are more likely trying to decide what prospects they are willing to part with to acquire a , or how much of Fransisco Lindor's contract they

I am not delusional, thanks. All I do is try and envision what I think the front office is thinking. And I think they think they still have a shot. They look at under the hood numbers and projections, and it tells them this is an 85 win team. I’m not saying they’re going to trade Jojo Parker and Arjun Nimmala for ten starts of Tarik Skubal. But they’re not giving up on the season by trading two guys who they don’t have to trade, who will not acquire them major league talent (or much hope for future major league talent) unless they are completely and totally out of it, which, like I put before, they should be. But they’re not. It’s a very unique season and I don’t expect a typical approach.

Petey, it is already being reported that rival executives believe that the Jays have conceded the season and are "wading in sell waters". This was reported by Joel Sherman and was quoted in an MLB.com article earlier today.

It is pretty obvious that there is zero plan to go into a 2026 buy-mode, which is what you are suggesting. You cant find a single recent article or statement by an insider to suggest that this is the plan. And if this was in fact the plan, don't you think that management would have reiterated it to Gausman and other players on the team or the media for that matter? Why would Gausman be fielding press questions from Rogers employees about how he's likely to be traded if the actual plan from management was to keep everyone and do the unthinkable of trying to salvage this season?

The reason why Gausman is having emotional interviews about how he doesn't want to leave is simple: he is actively being shopped around and is likely to be traded. The team wouldn't be tormenting him if there was no chance of him being traded.

I'm not trying to be a dick, but you claim to not be delusional, and yet you just stated that the front office probably thinks this team is much better than their record indicates.

Please explain what data backs up this claim. They are in fact really bad offensively, are bad defensively, they do not run the bases well, and the pitching staff is being held together by bandaids with the bullpen being taxed to the point where scrubs like CJ Van Eyk are pitching with the game on the line.

Everything that I outlined above explains why this team has gone 9-18 since June 23rd. They aren't even playing well going into the deadline, so this isn't a case where a bad team has shown improvement and therefore you can squint and convince yourself that there is a chance. No, they are simply BAD. As outlined by literally every stat and/or metric.

No, Shapiro and company do not believe that this team has just been unlucky to date. There is no advanced data to suggest that this is the case.

Detroit just split a series against the team with the second worst record in the AL. They are exactly a game and a half better than the Jays. I’m sorry, they just barely in a better situation. Jays go head to head against Houston here soon. I just don’t see how you can be so sure they’re going trade away two valuable pieces unless they are completely and totally out of it. This isn’t 2024 when they were clearly out of it.

I agree with Metafour - this team is not a contender. They are not close to being a contender either, in my view. It’s been a bad, injury riddled year. It happens (like the Giants 15 years ago).

I think the team will be trying to set itself up for 2027 as much as possible at the deadline. If they can get their hands on a controllable starter, CF, or LF, I think they will pull the trigger on that. Otherwise, they will be trading their expiring FA for the best return, likely near the majors players (sorry Glevin).

I’m not even saying they’re a contender. I’m just saying they’re not going to punt if they’re 5.5 games out of the wildcard.
I’m basing my opinion on career numbers of Kirk, Guerrero and Springer.
And yes I do acknowledge there are reports saying they’re wading in the sell waters.

Jays odds of making the playoffs are 7% per FanGraphs, 2.5% per Baseball Reference.

I imagine if you check around the betting sites, probably find one giving close to 10-1 odds for the True Believers.

I'm with Petey. I think they will keep going for it if they are anywhere near 5 games of the WC with more than 1/3rd of the season to still play. We are all approaching this as if it's black and white. They sell off and get better for next year or they don't sell off any remain the exact same team. These aren't likely to happen.

There are big variables here. They can do nothing and will probably play better. They can sell off and get worse this year and worse next year.

Here's is what I'm taking away from it all...IF they can trade Springer, Gausman, Bieber, Varsho, Hoffman...any of these guys for a valuable piece coming back (in any capacity) then sure, go ahead and "sell." IF any of the other teams view these guys as aging vets who are overpaid with flunking stats and performance this year and the best that you're going to get is a Loperfido or other AAAA player with years of control then forget it and "go for it," with your guys.

I know I wouldn't give anything up of value for Varsho, Hoffman or Springer if I was a contending team. If I traded for Gausman or Bieber I would give up a prospect similar to Khal Stephenson last year. So best case scenario this FO trades all of these guys and would be lucky to get a high upside AA pitcher with injury history and some AAAA guys... I'll take my chances with the current core of guys and trade for a relief upgrade and a controllable starter to add to the roster now. You trade for Lindor or Bo, take on those awful contracts, add a bullpen arm and a controllable starter like Alcantara and you probably:

*Improve enough to give yourself a chance to sneak into the playoffs.
*Keep your top prospects
*Keep your good aging vets and resign someone like Bieber or Gausman to stay

I think it's crazy to think this FO will be able to get anything significant or valuable back in trades unless it's Varland going the other way.

Dalimon, Kevin Gausman is putting up a 2.5 fWAR season with almost the exact same peripherals as he had in 2024 and 2025. His jump in ERA is not explained by a clear drop in stuff or ability. His FIP and xFIP are both still very good. This is still an easy ~#3 starter who is pitching worse than his data suggests and has playoff experience. He has real value, and other teams know this. There aren't that many starters available who are clearly better than Gausman, and there are quite a few teams who will want to add pitching.

Same thing with Bieber. They traded a borderline Top 100 prospect for him a year ago, and he wasn't even close to being MLB ready at the time. If he pitches one more strong start, you're talking about 4 straight quality to good starts against good offenses. He also has quality #3-#4 realistic upside, and as he has shown, when he is "on" in any given start he has the ability to produce an ace-level performance. Nobody is really going to care that he got lit up in his first 2 starts back after they clearly rushed him through his rehab in a desperation to get him into the rotation.

The fact that you wouldn't give up anything of value for Hoffman proves your folly. He is running an ERA of 1.47 since the beginning of June and still shows elite stuff and expected results. It is very obvious that the WS broke him mentally, and his results in a Jays uniform are very likely being impacted. A smart team will see the stuff and underlying data and bet on a change in scenery away from Toronto helping him immensely. Hoffman is striking out 13.7 per 9 innings this season. Relievers with that level of bat-missing ability dont grow on trees. This season has seen a massive 10%+ drop in his LOB%, and you can tell that mentally as soon as runners get on base the fanbase's expectation of him blowing it is getting to him.

Nah I don't buy that. Underlying numbers are predictive not conclusive. Vlad's bat speed is pretty damn good but the fact is he has way to much movement and parts to his swing and he needs to re-haul his mechanics this offseason.

Hoffman has underlying numbers that are good but I stand by my view that other teams will not value him and his salary in a best case scenario "if he's out of the environment of Toronto he will start to close games again." The dude can't perform in high leverage situations which is definitely a red flag and the reason why an opposing team will not pony up anything of real value for him.

Last year Camilo Doval cost the Yankees P Trystan Vrieling, C Jesus Rodriguez, and 2 other minor leaguers. They traded their #8 prospect to land David Bednar. You're overvaluing Hoffman which is ironic considering you know how bad this team has been so far this year...

I think you’re way too low on Hoffman.

Bednar is a fair comp. he does a lot of things at an elite level. Doval is not a good comp. he throws hard and gets ground balls, but that’s it.

Either way, I would be surprised if Hoffman goes because the Jays want to compete next year and they need back of the bullpen arms.

What do you mean you don't buy that? The fact that underlying numbers are predictive is exactly why a team will look at Gausman differently from his ERA from this season. They're acquiring future performance, not his past performance from this season. Gausman has a 3.58 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, and 3.95 xERA. All of those are noticeably better than his 4.51 actual ERA. The main difference this year is that his HR rate has spiked a bit, and his LOB% is down noticeably. But are more base-runners scoring because the Jays defense is noticeably worse this year? Has he just been more unlucky with balls in play? Everything else in his profile suggests that this is the same pitcher who was a performer on a team that almost won the World Series a year ago.

Gausman's situation is not different from Kikuchi in 2024. Kikuchi had a 4.75 ERA at the deadline, but much better underlying predictive stats. The Astros traded a borderline Top 100 prospect who was in AAA (Bloss) plus a mid-tier prospect (Loperfido) and an older-but-well performing prospect (Wagner) to get Kikuchi and his 4.75 ERA. Low and behold, Kikuchi pitched to a 2.70 ERA with the Astros post trade.

I never indicated that Hoffman would fetch a haul, I only said that he has value. Which he does. Even when you look at the suggestion that he can't pitch in "leverage": didn't he do it all last postseason prior to the HR in Game 7? He closed off the Yankees in high leverage. Furthermore, he was elite in high leverage when he was with Philly in both 2024 and 2023. He needs a change in scenery, period. He is a potential high-upside acquisition for this reason, on top of his elite bat-missing stuff and the fact that his season have been normalizing for a full month now going into the deadline. The $11M owed to him next season hurts a bit, but its not an unreasonable number if he actually pitches like a 8th inning guy (which he clearly is capable of). Tyler Rogers makes more than that next season.

When you bring up David Bednar: the Pirates famously botched that trade, so its not exactly a good reference point. They went with quantity over quality (they didn't just trade him for the Yankees' #8 prospect, there were two other players that were involved as well). They also received nowhere near the value that other elite relievers were traded for at the same deadline. Tyler Rogers was traded for the Mets' #10 and #12 prospects, on top of Jose Buto who was a useable MLB reliever. Ryan Helsley was noticeably worse than Bednar at last year's deadline, and he returned a similar package. Ergo: the Pirates just blew it.

Hoffman is very undervalued around here. The guy has 13.7 K/9 3.5 BB/9 0.8 HR/9 - all solid numbers. After a nightmare start his ERA+ is back over 100. 5 saves, 11 holds, 4 blown. Not great, but 3 of those 4 were by game 16 of the season (April 14th). Other teams will be looking at predictive stats, not ERA and other stuff we fans are used to. They want to know will this guy help in August/September/October/November not how they did in April/May/June/July.

I'd be looking at doing a package deal - give us a killer prospect and we'll remake your rotation and pen with Bieber-Gausman-Hoffman. If you need an OF as well we have Varsho-Straw-assorted LH hitting/bad fielder guys to pick from. Pull off a top 50 prospect or a top 20 (dream on) then that is a good trade deadline.

Tampa needs a starter and a reliever (Steven Matz is in their rotation with a 6.28 ERA). The Phillies are weak in CF/RF and at the back of their rotation and given they've used Zach Pop/Tim Mayza/Taijuan Walker - all Jay cast offs from long ago I'd say their pen could use help too. Lets be real - nearly every team could use another starter and a reliever. I see Tampa and Philly as prime targets though.

Hoffman's opposition BABIP this year is .398, the worst in the major leagues for a pitcher with 40 IP plus by a mile.  To put that in perspective, Tyler Heineman was lucky last year and had a .342 BABIP.  In high leverage situations, his opposition BABIP is .429. It's hard to fail when you're striking out 15 batters per 9 IP, as Hoffman has done while pitching in high-leverage situations.  He's contributed by walking too many in that situation, but a good chunk of it is simple bad luck.