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The MLB draft begins on this Saturday and concludes on Sunday. The Jays do not have a good position heading into the draft. Their first pick drops by ten positions because the Jays payroll last season exceeded the second threshold of the competitive balance tax. And the Jays lose their second round pick because they signed Dylan Cease (I believe). Finally the Jays do not get a compensation pick for Bo Bichette because they signed Cease.

The Jays first pick is number 39. The other two picks on day one, in rounds three and four, are at numbers 103 and 131.


When your first pick is at number 39 your pick will be the best available player. Who that might be is unknown to me, but maybe some of the Bauxites have a suggestion for the front office.


Any pre draft thoughts can be added here.

Pre-Draft Thread | 18 comments | Create New Account
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TamRa - Tuesday, July 07 2026 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#479858) #
Someone (can't remember who, but someone "in the room") was being interviewed and strongly inferred that they are looking mainly at a pitcher with that first pick.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 08 2026 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#479859) #
Maybe read it here:

Tramuta said. “There’s depth in the pitching, both college and high school. There’s some good college hitters. I think if there’s one area, and we’ll look back five years from now to say I’m right or wrong, but the one area that’s a little bit less is the high school position player. We still spend time on that, but we’ve really dug into the pitching class because there’s numbers, there’s volume, there’s depth there.”
mendocino - Wednesday, July 08 2026 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#479861) #
BA's latest mock

39. Blue Jays — Jarren Advincula, 2B, Georgia Tech
Bonus Pool: $5,543,100
Slot Value: $2,571,700
Will Advincula’s potential 60-grade hit tool fall out of the first 40 picks? That seems unlikely, but I haven’t heard any obvious connections with him higher up the board.
mendocino - Wednesday, July 08 2026 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#479862) #
ESPN

Toronto Blue Jays
First pick: No. 39
Bonus pool: $5,543,100

One big question: Is there another hit coming for the Jays at pick 39?

Guide to MLB's looming labor battle

Here's what you need to know about initial CBA negotiations, baseball's salary cap fight and more. FAQ »

The Jays have been hitting on high picks of late: JoJo Parker is high in the Top 100 just one year after going No. 8, Trey Yesavage was in the big leagues one year after going 20th, and their next 2024 picks (Khal Stephen, Johnny King, Sean Keys) all look like Top 100 prospects now, just like 2023 first-rounder Arjun Nimmala. Picking 39th will be a bigger challenge than these previous picks, but after about pick 20-to-25, the players all look very similar to rival teams, which means opportunity for Toronto. Some potential targets include Cole Prosek, Coleman Borthwick, Will Brick, Tegan Kuhns and Carson Bolemon.

ESPN Final Top 250

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49297819/2026-mlb-draft-rankings-top-250-prospects-roch-cholowsky-grady-emerson-vahn-lackey
mendocino - Wednesday, July 08 2026 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#479868) #
Perfect Game Top 500

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=24414
TamRa - Wednesday, July 08 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#479872) #
In this video, the BA guys do a mock that gives the Jays high school RHP Blake Bryant

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15h1jqtT3jM&t=3835s

Though they don't comment much on him. That ESPN list has him at 84 and Pipeline has him at 65. He's not even in BA's own top 75 so I understand why I never heard of him.

my gut instinct is to dislike the idea of choosing a 2B. BA has him at 24, Pipeline at 48, and ESPN at 71

(there doesn't seem to be a lot of consensus on these lists)

TamRa - Wednesday, July 08 2026 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#479873) #
The one's that caught my eye:

Landon Thome - because sometimes these guys love bloodlines
Taylor Rabe - 6'5" RH with fantastic control who's touched 100
Daniel Jackson - C, Golden Spikes winner, likely won't still be on the board
Chase Brunson - Jays took him in the 18th in '23
Logan Schmidt - LHP, still 17 on draft day which they sometimes look at


Also I just noticed that the BA mock gave Bryant to the Pirates at #34 so...who knows anything?

mendocino - Wednesday, July 08 2026 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#479874) #
The staff draft had Jays taking Blake Bryant, RHP

BA Staff Draft 4.0, July 6
39. Blue Jays — Blake Bryant, RHP, Citizens Christian Academy, Douglas, Ga.
Writer: Carlos
Rationale: This is my high school pitching range. We’re low enough on the board that I have to start worrying about some of my colleagues legitimately taking this profile, and Bryant checks every box I’m looking for with a high school righthanded starter. If I knew there was more heat on him in this staff draft, I would happily take him 10 spots higher than this.

TamRa - Wednesday, July 08 2026 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#479879) #
BA folks doing a team by team breakdown and...dude is listing off HS hitters and never mentions pitching.

Nobody knows nothing.
metafour - Thursday, July 09 2026 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#479914) #
The Jays have had success with multiple demographics in recent years, so there's not much for a Draft writer to go off to try to predict at a pick as low as #39. They've had hits with both college and HS pitchers recently, and HS hitters as well. So they could realistically go in any direction. Then there's the question of what overall draft strategy they'll have given their low bonus pool. Do they "over-draft" a late rising HS player with upside at #39 and try to save some money to distribute around later picks?
June Northey - Thursday, July 09 2026 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#479915) #
mendocino - that makes a ton of sense for the Jays this year - I just did a review of past drafts and history of each pick the Jays have, tldr - odds are low of getting anyone 'wow', around 1% with a shot at a Bonds-Pujols-Seaver though (easily the best 3 ever drafted at a pick the Jays have this year, although Pujols was the only one who signed). Basically I could see the Jays going high school early on quite easily - teams are reducing risk by going with college players (logical) but at pick #39 and lower that is a waste imo. You need to find stars if you can, you can sign/trade for role players easily. The draft has the potential for crazy bonus value to a club if they pick right. Trey Yesavage the most recent 'wow' pick, although we all must remember Manoah as a warning (looked 'wow' at first, then collapsed). MLB has far more luck than any other sport when it comes to the draft - lets hope a talented guy drops ala Yesavage (from 11th rank to 20th pick).
scottt - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 05:57 AM EDT (#479918) #
I'm expecting them to take a pitcher this year.
hypobole - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#479922) #
One stroke of luck for the Jays picking at 39, at least according to FG. This draft is weak at the top, but deep. They have 44 prospects listed with 45 FV grades. Last 2 years it was 33 and 32. The past 10 drafts, only 2022 with 45 had more.

mendocino - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#479924) #
Joe Doyle@JoeDoyleMiLB

I’ve been covering the Draft for upwards of a decade and I have never seen this many names being bandied about as potential first rounders with 24 hours to go.

Feels as though this draft is ripe for surprises.
TamRa - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#479927) #
A lot of the mocks have the Jays drafting a high schooler but if you read what Tramuta told Shi, you get the vibe that it will be mostly college guys.

Gerry - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#479959) #
Kiley McDaniel had an interesting post today. College players can now be paid and some players who are not at the top of the draft can make as much money by being a college star as opposed to a mid round pick.

Also some agents are worried that the new collective agreement could limit draft bonus's so some high school players will take the money now.

These two points work against each other but every player is different.

I have seen BA announce two high rated players withdrawing their names from the draft today.
hypobole - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#479970) #
Gerry, this is the FG take on NIL money.

A growing dynamic affecting the signability of players is the money college programs are able to offer them. This is less of an issue for the top-of-the-class talents, and more a source of tension for established college players in rounds 6-10. There are some players who are more impactful in the college game than they are valued in pro ball, mostly the big, positionless mashers and the pitchers who are rotation staples in college but have fringe stuff compared to big leaguers. These are the sorts of players who schools are offering $500,000 in NIL money to, while the slot value of picks after the fifth round dips below that figure. Though there are definitely good players drafted after the fifth round every year, you could argue this issue mostly impacts the quality of org guys rather than those who we’d consider to be actual prospects. But even if that’s true, it’s contributing to the degradation of the overall level of play in the minors.
mendocino - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 01:56 AM EDT (#479982) #
MLB's Final Mock

39. Blue Jays
Mayo: Ty Head, OF, North Carolina (No. 60)
Callis: Taylor Rabe, RHP, Mississippi (No. 40)
Pre-Draft Thread | 18 comments | Create New Account
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