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Now that most sports are down for the count thanks to the virus it is time for the thread dedicated to it

At least by 2 weeks, spring training games canceled, no WBC qualifier games to be played either.
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Mike Green - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#386356) #
Thanks for the new thread, John. 

The cancellation of the rest of the spring and the first two weeks is a good first step.  MLB will almost surely have to make a longer term decision within the next 2 weeks. 
uglyone - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#386357) #
take this seriously, folks.

it's not the flue.

it's not a hoax.

Michael - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#386358) #
I hope everyone should stay safe.

For information on the virus online that I've found useful, in addition to local gov't responses, I'd recommend and

For anyone in Canada wondering about the US response and why things have accelerated so badly here compared to some other countries, I'd recommend more in depth reporting like

Switching to the less important, but more on topic for the site, baseball questions: I asked in the other thread, but I'm interested in anyone knows how cancelled games and shortened seasons impact the normal rules. For instance, for suspended players, do the cancelled games count as part of the suspension or not? For young players, do the cancelled games count as service time or not? What would the impact be on super 2 type timing? If the "normal" plan would have been to call up Nate Pearson after the first ~40 games of the seasons for service count manipulation reasons, but the first 30 games are cancelled, do you get the manipulation to call up 10 games after things resume, or do you need to wait closer to an additional ~40 games?
hypobole - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#386359) #
What do the players do now? Go home? Keep working at the complex?
rpriske - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#386360) #
As of now they are staying there and continuing to work out.
uglyone - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#386361) #

I highly recommend this twitter follow, and especially this thread, if you want to know the details of the US response, from a the most recent former FDA commissioner (appointed by Trump, btw):
bpoz - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#386362) #
Thanks. This is helpful to me.
uglyone - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#386363) #
Also helpful:
Mike Green - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#386365) #
Jordan Romano is squarely behind MLB's decision.  Get that man from Markham a contract!
John Northey - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#386368) #
With Trudeau now staying home thanks to his wife maybe having it, and Trump having been exposed but unwilling to self-isolate we learned a lot about these two nations leaders.  Like Trudeau or not (I am more in the not category) he is doing the right thing.  Like Trump or not he is doing the wrong thing.
John Northey - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#386369) #
For those curious about how widespread it is - Via The NY Times: page of maps, charts and tables. Also maps tracking the coronavirus outbreak around the world.  Note how Mexico is at 12 yet the US leader claims the border wall (un-built) is protecting them from the virus  ::eyeroll::

The government of Canada site: Coronavirus (COVID-19).  Tons of good information there. 

Rather than taking anyone's word for it go to sites like these to learn more and protect yourself and your family.  While it sucks from a personal POV the 3 week long March break should be good overall to protect us all as long as people don't get stupid during it (IE: go on vacations or something).
grjas - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#386371) #
On the Ontario site, there are 18 new cases of which 11. are travel related and the others are close contacts with someone who has it.

Of the 11 travel cases, 8 were returning from the US.

I hope Canadians aren’t going south at March break thinking the problem is all in Europe and Asia. America likely has a serious problem and don’t know how bad it is. They have the lowest level of testing of any western country.
mathesond - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#386372) #
I had bought a plane ticket & bookad an Airbnb rental for the end of the month, to surprise my folks in Chicago on my Mom's birthday. As she's 68 and recovering from chemo in back to back years, and Dad is 71, I won't be going now. But as my wife has a severely compromised immune system, I'd be more likely to endanger her by bringing something back than endanger my parents by giving them something unexpected.
John Northey - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#386374) #
Going to the US is going to become the biggest source of it here in Canada I fear.  The Americans are addicted to 'pay for it yourself' thinking which is deadly right now.  I've read of insane cases where someone was billed $10k for going to the ER to get tested, and wasn't even tested for it.  Anyone who wants a privitised system needs to read about the nightmares down there.  Ugh.  Their testing is far behind and I'd be willing to bet if they caught up they'd have more than double the cases they think they have and by not testing it'll spread like wildfire.  Our best hope is someone finds a vaccine soon or it dies off in the summer (unlikely given Australia is in summer now, going into fall, and has roughly the same number of cases as we do).
scottt - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#386375) #
They're closing Disneyland. That's good.
Just close all the beaches and we should be covered.

scottt - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#386376) #
After October, I take Sportsnet off my satellite bill until Spring training.
I haven't added it yet and I'm not holding my breath.

The US health care system is not designed to deal with this.
The players are mostly fine. There's a line in the CBA that let MLB reduce salaries in events like this, but they can't apply it while the players are in camp. Now if they decide to send everyone home...

The people who works at the various stadium are screwed though.

vw_fan17 - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#386377) #
The Americans are addicted to 'pay for it yourself' thinking which is deadly right now. 

I don't consider myself an American - I'm still a Canadian citizen only despite 15 years living in California - but I think your statement's a little too broad, IMHO. If it were up to California/Oregon/Washington and a wide swath of the Bos-NY-Wash corridor, we'd have signed up for national healthcare / single payer / whatever you want to call it yesterday. Last year. 10 years ago, even. And the metric system (I can dream, right?).
While I could launch into a diatribe about US politics, I'm sure you understand the situation is a bit more nuanced than that single statement. For example, if I asked my family in Ontario about the political situation, I'm sure their opinion would be much, MUCH different than yours.

Just read an article the other day about areas in Kentucky where cancer rates are lower than average due to a very rural lifestyle, but cancer SURVIVAL rates are even more worse than average. And NOT due to not having healthcare paid for - due to Obamacare, it mostly is - there is just a lack of doctors/clinics within any reasonable driving distance. When your routine is "drive into town once a month to buy stuff", there's very little motivation / interest in making an appointment to take a whole day just to go to the clinic which is miles and miles away to get screened for cancer which you probably don't have.
So there is definitely SOME of what you said - stoked by politicians on one side of the aisle - but it's nowhere near a complete picture.
Michael - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#386380) #
Yeah, like vw_fan17 I'm still a Canadian citizen and not a US citizen despite living in California for a couple months shy of 20 years (and 4 more years of university in the US east coast - more than half my life in the US) and I think it is not just the 'pay for it yourself' thinking.

To be clear, that is a contributing factor. And the lack of access to health care/universal health care is a real problem (as is the housing situation). However, large parts of this problem also go to the US federal gov't. In that even if there was universal free health care (say Bernie's plan) there would still have been problems because of the number of tests and the problems there has been with the tests in addition to the challenges of the CDC/FDA and gov't to allow people to get tested. There are many documented cases of people who have health insurance and who have doctors that suspect symptoms consistent with COVID-19, but yet can't get tests in the US.

So it isn't just the lack of universal health care, but the wider problems and the ability of the Trump administration to be competent.
uglyone - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#386381) #
Sophie Trudeau has covid.
John Northey - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#386384) #
We can add girls hockey to the list of things canceled now - an idiotic decision as the girls are normally friends thus around each other all the time anyways, and the crowds at house league games is maybe 30-40 (parents and the odd other relative).  You are at far more risk going to a McDonald's.  Sigh.  Panic has set in.  Just waiting for them to announce all stores must close as that is the logical next step.
uglyone - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#386385) #
It's not panic.

And doctor would think it's still not enough.
Spifficus - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#386387) #
Yeah it's not panic, it's being aggressive up front (if this even counts as up front anymore). The goal is to not get to the Italy stage, which is why you need social distancing measures now. Otherwise, the virus spreads rapidly, and all the people who need respirators from it all flood the ERs at once (vs spread over months). If the hospitals get overwhelmed, things can get really bad really quick.
dan gordon - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 03:26 AM EDT (#386388) #
No, it's not exactly panic, but there is a lot of misinformation going around, and a lot of over-reacting. There are about 150 cases in Canada so far, and 1 death. One. I expect that by the end of 2020, when you add up the deaths in the USA and Canada from covid-19 the number will be less than the number of deaths from flu. There are already 20,000 deaths from flu in the USA so far this year. People underestimate how deadly flu is and are overestimating how deadly covid-19 is. The vast majority of people who get covid-19 have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. I'm far, far more worried about the reaction to this virus than I am about the virus.
uglyone - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 05:45 AM EDT (#386389) #
The misinformation is in fact comparing it to the flu.
uglyone - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 06:47 AM EDT (#386390) #
Trying to clear up this 'flu' misinformation and other misinformation:
christaylor - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#386391) #
"The Americans are addicted to 'pay for it yourself' thinking which is deadly right now." I'm going to echo what the other ex-pats have said -- I've lived in the US now for a decade less two years in the UK. Canadian ignorance and smugness about the US is a real thing. Yesterday, the head of the CDC agreed to use his authority to help even uninsured Americans pay for COVID-19 testing (under some damn fine questioning from a Rep. from CA). Almost three weeks ago, my insurance company announced no co-pays for anything COVID-19 (low $20/$50 co-pays for offices and *especially* the ER are a good idea and could help Ontario bring pharmacare). Sure, the critcisms about the admin's response, but there's not an addiction to pay for it yourself, a full 2/3rd of Americans support universal health care.

Sure this admin's response is terrible and there is a shortage of tests. Back to the larger point, far too many Canadians speak broadly about the US and make largely false claims that are *extremely* false depending on where one lives (I suspect Cambridge, MA is more liberal/socialist than all but a few neighborhoods in all of Canada). So there's that...
rpriske - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#386392) #
For everyone who insists it is overblown, here is some info for you.

Current estimates say that 35-70% of ALL Canadians will contract it.

The current mortality rate is 3.4%

If that rate were to hold (which it won't, due to proper precautions being taken, but it will still be MUCH higher than the flu), that would come out to nearly 450,000 dead in Canada.

As I said, work being done in Canada and elsewhere will pull that 3.4% down, but ANYONE trying to convince people to take this lightly is being irresponsible.

Trump's stupidity, for example, will directly cause loss of life.
uglyone - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#386393) #
It certainly doesn't help that the most important office in terms of dealing with this in north america is doing this:
Mike Green - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#386394) #
We do not have reason to be smug.  Our health care system is far from perfect and quite a distance behind several other rich countries.  However, the American health care system is by any number of objective measures the worst of the rich countries and it is not close.  In Canada, it seems that Toronto is likely to have the most difficulty with the virus with Vancouver second and Montreal third.  Our preparedness in Toronto could, by all accounts, use some improvement.

I traveled to the United States four weeks ago and considered the risk of bringing back the virus here to be negligible.  There was no public authority anywhere in Canada then discouraging this kind of travel.  I would not travel to the United States now, nor frankly to any other country.  Multiple public authorities in Canada are now encouraging us to stay in our country (and probably should be discouraging long-distance travel within Canada). 

As for the 157 reported cases and the 1 reported death, we have to take the reported cases with an iceberg size grain of salt.  When your prime minister's wife gets the infection and the prime minister is not tested, that gives you a broad hint why the reported cases tell you extremely little.  Most cases show minimal symptoms and are essentially indistinguishable from seasonal cold/minor flus that a huge number of Canadians walk around with every winter.  Whether the reported figures is off by 1 order of magnitude or 2 orders of magnitude, we really do not know.  On the other hand, the 1 reported death so far is such a small number that we can draw some comfort from that.  We'll have a better idea in about two weeks after the March break holiday return infections start to roll in. 

scottt - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#386395) #
It's hard to reconcile a full 2/3 of Americans supporting universal health care and no more than 50% ever voting for it. Everybody supports a program until they have to pay for it. Then they balk.
scottt - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#386396) #
The mortality rate is affected by several factors. The state of health care, including the availability of Intensive Care unit, the demographics--it affects the elderly disproportionately, the detection rate--South Korea is testing over 20K every day and has limited the mortality rate to 0.7%, the rate of infection--people are dying or recovering very slowly.

I find it easier to think about the vulnerable people I know who could be affected than to wrap my mind around a number of possible death. That's something left to the economists.

scottt - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#386397) #
Yes, crowdsourcing.

It could be worst. They could have testing kits on kickstarter.

Chuck - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#386398) #
The current mortality rate is 3.4%

Bear in mind that this is likely vastly overstated because it uses as a denominator everyone who has shown symptoms and has tested positive. This ignores all non-tested positives that either show symptoms or do not. Absent extensive surveillance, a proper denominator is difficult to compute.

Several health professionals have held up South Korea's fatality rate of 0.6% as likely closer to the truth (still not insignificant if half of us, or more, will end up infected).

scottt - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#386400) #
My first reaction is that they jumped the gun.
Sure, they can't play games in New York, California and Washington State right now, but there is not community level contagion reported in Florida and Arizona.
I'd shut down Disney and all the beaches before I'd end spring training.

Maybe the real discussion is whether to play for months in closed arenas or just not have a season at all. I don't see the owners paying the players all year for not playing and this is not going to boil over in a month. China has been dealing with this since November 17 apparently and they only contained it by shutting everything down for months and the end isn't in sight.

Can they develop a protocol to keep the player safe? It would be be catastrophic for player development to cancel the minor league games. The people who works for minimum wages at the grocery stores are at a higher risk than the players and they won't send them home.

What if they start playing at some point and one player reports positive so they need to quarantine a team? Do you continue without that team or shot everything for good?

More questions than answers. And don't talk to me about the economy or the need to lower interest rates!

Mike Green - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#386401) #
Three cases were reported in Florida on March 11; eighteen were reported on March 12.  We do not yet reports from March 13, but it's a fair inference from the data in other countries that the rate of infection in Florida will increase rapidly in the next few days. 
Michael - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#386402) #
The death rate in Italy is over 6% and it isn't clear that is going to go down.

Part of the problem is with extensive treatment the death rate might be 0.5-1%, but if you run out of ICU beds and ECMO and respirators the death rate may be 5-10%. That's why it is so important to not treat this "like the flu" and to flatten the curve, minimize the current transmission and the like.

I don't know what things are like in Canada, but so far the US response is *worse* than the corresponding response in Italy, just 2-3 weeks earlier. The county I'm in (population ~1.9 M) has 66 confirmed cases, but 31 hospitalizations already. 50% hospitalization isn't what you'd expect so true cases are much, much higher than 66. The gov't doctors in a press conference in Ohio yesterday suggested that their best estimate is that 1% of Ohio, 100,000 people, already have the virus right now. Due to the fact that from infection to when you need hospitalization is a lag, and the doubling rate is inside that lag, things are much worse than you know before you know it.

Everyone take whatever precautions you can to stay safe.
dan gordon - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#386403) #
The South Korean data is the most accurate because they are testing so many people, not just the ones who show up at hospitals or other treatment facilities, and who are the sickest individuals. Their rate is in the 0.6% to 0.7 range. Death rates of 3%+ simply don't make sense given the typical symptoms the virus presents. Very similar, but sometimes more severe, to the symptoms from flu, which has a death rate of about 0.1%.
hypobole - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#386405) #
Excellent piece on why South Korea has the most accurate numbers.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#386406) #
Disney World, Universal Orlando and Disneyland Paris theme parks have all shut down, Scottt.

The crowds may be small at spring training games, but they're still crowds. I don't think the players would be too enthused about playing exhibition games with no idea of when the season will start either, and some may want to go home and be with their families if/when things get worse.
Chuck - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#386407) #
If the coronavirus fatality rate is really around 0.6% and is "only" 6 times that of influenza, this is still a misleading comparison. None of us have immunity to coronavirus which means that the infection rate figures to be half the population (!), very much different than influenza.

These current measures that we are all taking are more to delay getting infected (so as not to simultaneously overwhelm the healthcare system), not to stave off infection entirely (though I imagine a hermetically sealed life could increase your odds of not getting infected).

uglyone - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#386408) #
Unfortunately it is way too late for us to emulate South Korea, who took immediate drastic action. Nope, north america is on the same course as the worst hit countries.

uglyone - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#386409) #
grjas - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#386411) #
LPart of the problem is with extensive treatment the death rate might be 0.5-1%, but if you run out of ICU beds and ECMO and respirators the death rate may be 5-10%. That's why it is so important to not treat this "like the flu" and to flatten the curve, minimize the current transmission and the like.”

Exactly right Michael. The most important differential between flu and the COVID-19 virus is the proportion of people getting seriously ill and the impact on health care systems. Italy is having to assess in real time who gets treated at hospitals and who doesn’t and they only have 10,000 cases. Imagine the impact of 1 million Cases much less 10 or 100 million.

Really tired of the media and social media fixation on gyrating mortality rates. Listen to the health care workers not people crunching hypothetical mortality numbers. Global reaction to this is unprecedented for a reason.
John Northey - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#386412) #
A chart like that would be nice for Canada.  Italy has a population of 60 million, a bit less than double ours, or about 1/6th of the USA.  Of course, the confirmed US cases is grossly under-reported due to the issues many have listed (limited availability, restricted use of tests, high cost if you don't have insurance thus many won't go to get tested).  At this point I'd say anyone going to the USA is being foolish and taking a major risk, especially if you are older. Canadian Cases as of 9 AM today are at 152 confirmed + 3 probable.  To match Italy that would be roughly equal to 310 cases for Italy which I'd guess was around day 4 on the chart above.  1629 cases in the US so far but again, probably well underreported.  41 deaths vs Canada's at 1 as far as I can find (can't find anything listing a second death although I was sure I heard of another).

Be safe out there, and don't do anything dumb like stock up with 6 months worth of toilet paper.  The local store here (walking distance from my house) I went to in order to get milk but the lines were 20+ minutes long so I said 'screw it' and noticed the fresh veggies are vanishing as was the yogurt.  The dumbest thing is these people are standing in line with dozens of people who they don't know, within a shopping carts distance of each other.  Of course, here in London Ontario there has been 1 case which cleared up (student at university) so I'm not too worried.
grjas - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#386413) #
To make it crystal clear, here is what we are trying to prevent in Canada:

“ But in the rest of hard-hit northern Italy, the virus’ spread was growing so exponentially that doctors were making comparisons to war-time triage medics deciding who lives, who dies and who gets access to the limited number of ICU beds.

“It’s a reasoning that our colleagues make," Dr. Guido Giustetto, head of the association of doctors in northern Piedmont, said Monday. “It becomes dramatic if, rather than doing it under normal situations, they do it because the beds are so scarce that someone might not have access to medical care.”

The Italian society of anesthesiology and intensive care published 15 ethical recommendations to consider when deciding on ICU admissions during the virus crisis and the ICU shortage. The criteria include the age of the patient and the probability of survival, and not just “first come first served.”
uglyone - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#386414) #
I hope we get off the italy track soon:

AP: Italy's coronavirus infections soar by more than 2,500 and virus-related deaths hit biggest single-day jump of 250
uglyone - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#386415) #
Monday —> Friday in Italy

week starts with 9.172 covid-19 cases, ends with 17,660 cases.

starts with 463 deaths, ends with 1,266.

The lockdown should slow these trends — eventually. But it hasn’t happened yet. This explosion was set in motion before the govnt took action.
Michael - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#386416) #
If you look at you can see that in Hubei the lockdown close to immediately flattened the growth of true new cases (grey); however, it was about 2 weeks later before the rapid growth of officially reported cases (orange) slowed because the reported cases are lagging reality. China was much better at testing during this window than the US is. This was from chart 7 of
Chuck - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#386417) #
Maybe somebody can correct my math where appropriate.

Canada sees 3500 deaths to influenza per year. If the fatality rate is 0.1% that means that 3.5M of our 35M people are infected, so 10%. (This seems awfully high given the number of reported influenza infections being around 35,000, or only 1% of the presumed infected 3.5M).

Given the projected 30-70% infection rate of coronavirus, and given a 0.6% fatality rate, we'd be looking at this number of deaths:

  • at 30% infection rate: 63,000 (3.5M x 0.3 x 0.006)
  • at 50% infection rate: 105,000
  • at 70% infection rate: 147,000

This ignores the exacerbation of the problem by too many simultaneous infections, i.e., a non-flattened curve, that healthcare limitations would introduce.

uglyone - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#386418) #
Chuck for reference and clarity with which numbers may be being referred to there, the USA CDC posted these numbers for their flu season:

Cases: 32,000,000
Hospitalized: 310,000 (9.7%)
Deaths: 18,000 (0.06% of Cases, 5.8% of Hospitalized)
Mike Green - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#386419) #
Yep, the math is right.  The current 1 death on 157 reported cases (as opposed to actual infections) suggests that so far we've done much better than 0.6% death rate.  That may be a sample size fluke or something more do with our situation- climate, lack of density, health care system, the high average income of our over 80 cohort.  I hope that it is the latter.
uglyone - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#386420) #
Michael - and there is no possible way we could ever enforce the type of lockdown china employed in hubei.
Michael - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#386421) #
Other differences versus US:
China was able to build multiple hospitals a week to improve capacity.

China was able to bring in help from other regions as things weren't overwhelmed elsewhere in the country.

China wasn't dealing with world wide shut down in supply chain.

China had mostly competent national leadership (once they got past initial attempts to silence information).

One plus for US, I think:
Smoking rates I believe were higher in Hubei and that is thought to be a co-factor in the impact of illness.
christaylor - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#386422) #
"It's hard to reconcile a full 2/3 of Americans supporting universal health care and no more than 50% ever voting for it. Everybody supports a program until they have to pay for it. Then they balk."

It's not that hard. The support level one gets depends on how pollsters ask the question and, that said, it is worth remembering voting patterns don't depend strictly on single issues. It's entirely possible to oppose a candidates' stance on gun control, cultural issues, and support universal health care. In MA the uninsured rate is about 2.5%. For context, the last poll I saw ~2% of all Americans believe in "a flat earth"... soooo... part of Canadian's ignorance and smugness is forgetting that the US is far from homogeneous. Overall, the US health care system is bad and expensive... some places, such as Boston, it is excellent. I've personally benefitted from the non-rationed care approach of the US-system. Don't get me wrong -- I whole-heartedly an OHIP style system coming to the US, or, even better, a comprehensive system like the NHS, but to paint the US health care system as entirely without benefit and advantage over those systems (for some lucky individuals) is wrong, unfortuantely it is extremely unfair to a large number of people. That said, baseball is and has been extremely unfair to a large number of players over its history. Hockey too. It would be nice if we all had the power to hit the reset button and redesign human life under a Rawls-ian "veil of ignorance" but we all have to work within our particular and often peculiar set of random luck.
scottt - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#386423) #
Yeah. March break will do a job in Florida. That's predictable and avoidable.
scottt - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#386424) #
You can ignore Iran numbers. Only God knows what's going on there
scottt - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#386425) #
Snowbirds are still in the US.

Mike Green - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#386426) #
Mass. has a long history with Romneycare preceding the ACA.  It's 3% uninsured rate is the lowest in the nation.  There are five states with rates under 5%, and five over 12% (including Texas and Florida) according to the census bureau.  And of course, there are a host of important issues for many people with insurance.  The end result is higher infant mortality and lower life expectancy than other nations of comparable wealth, despite more money spent on health care. 

For COVID-19 purposes, Medicaid covers the over 65 group most affected by the disease, and the median income in the US of 72 year olds is the same as 45-52 year olds and higher than young people.  The US may be able to do better than many countries in treating the most serious cases resulting from the infection despite its less-than-stellar health care system.   Because of that, it isn't really necessary to have a debate about how good or bad the US health care system is.
scottt - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#386427) #
China has high pollution also.

Life expectancy in the US is a bit tricky. Huge difference between the poor and the rich.

I'm off work for at least a week.
I'll go to stores but won't stand in lines.
I usually frequent a gym, but I'll just go for a walk outside, if that.
I got an email form cineplex. They promise to clean and disinfect. Good luck with that.

scottt - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#386428) #
Players have been told to go back to their homes.
Many players including all the Yankees have decided to stay put.

It's unclear what happens to international players who try to go home.
It looks like, as I expected, the players won't be paid.

Players can go home.
They can stay in camp--for now--and keep receiving living expenses.
Or apparently they could go in their home team city.
Not sure if Rogers would put anyone in hotels in Toronto.

Mylegacy - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#386429) #
Met with my Oncologist today. My numbers are "a bit askew on the treadle" and I'll be getting a torso Cscan. One of life's underappreciated pleasures when one has an incurable cancer.

We chatted about the new virus - the one named after Mexico's best beer.

He had a few off the cuff comments I found interesting. As best my aged mind can recall, he said:

The "cure" will actually be a vaccine. He's heard there is massive work being done world wide on this and Saskatchewan has one of the centers that is in the vanguard of the work. (Who'd a thunk it). He said there is talk that regulators will be loosening the very stringent regulations for vaccine testing in order to get any promising ones out on trials ASAP.

He says it's mild for 80%ish of those that get it, serious for 20%ish and fatal for five%ish. He says most of the 5%ish are people like my wife and I. People with pre-existing conditions which have resulted in compromised immune systems.

He says the most troubling fact is that this coronavirus has an unusual long time between infection and symptoms. Imagine a more serious virus with a 20% to 50% death rate and knowing it can stay hidden in plain view for one to three weeks before we know it's there. "That would be the nightmare case." He is hearing that it shows no symptoms for between 5 to 20+ days in most cases and over 30+ days in a few reported cases.

He says, and I quote. "Pandemic's are terrifying. Humanity's response, or lack thereof to this, will go a long way in preparing us for the draconian steps that will have to be taken to 'smooth out the curve' of a civilization destroying pandemic that may come one day."

Being Scottish by birth and on a more important level he say's "I'll miss hearing what Rangers are up to."

To which I say, "Sometimes shit happens."

bpoz - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#386430) #
You write so well Mylegacy. If you still indulge in a drink. CHEERS!!!
dan gordon - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#386431) #
I don't agree with the 30% - 70% infection rate for Canada at all. The disease started in China, so it has had the longest time to infect people in that country. China has a population of almost 1.5 billion. Infection rates at that level would mean 450 million, 750 million or 1.05 billion cases in China. So far there are roughly 81 thousand reported cases in China, and the number of new cases there has already started to decline. "30%, 50%, 70% infection rates" is the type of gross exaggeration that leads to the over-reactions we are seeing on so many fronts.

Mike, you said "The current 1 death on 157 reported cases (as opposed to actual infections) suggests that so far we've done much better than 0.6% death rate"

Mike, 1 out of 157 is just about exactly 0.6%. Or are you comparing the 1 death with a different figure, like how many estimated infections there are that haven't been reported yet? If so, what number are you using to compare to the 1 death?
scottt - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#386432) #
Right now, in the US, pretty much only those who require hospitalization are getting tested.
And those with special connections.

Not clear what the Jays are doing but some teams are staying put and other are shutting down camp.

Mike Green - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#386433) #
The .6 figure comes from South Korea where they test much more and so the mortality rate is closer to deaths/actual infections. Let's just wait a couple of weeks and see where we are. While maintaining social distance, staying in our region and handwashing as directed.
dan gordon - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#386434) #
Yes, Mike, I know about the Korean rates - I've mentioned them here a couple of times. What I was asking is what you meant when you said we were doing much better than the 0.6% rate here in Canada, when our actual death rate so far is exactly 0.6%.
Mike Green - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#386435) #
Sorry, Dan. Let's give it one more go. We hope that deaths/actual infections  will be 0.6 or less. Hopefully much less. We have no reliable data on actual infections in Canada because we have not conducted the necessary testing.

We could get a pretty good idea simply by randomly sampling 1000 people in the Southern Ontario, 1000 people in the Montreal and 1000 people in the Lower Mainland of BC, and 1000 people from smaller cities across Canada. It's amazing how much energy and money we are prepared to devote to much less important things.
dalimon5 - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#386436) #
"81 thousand reported cases"

I think the key word there Dan is "reported."
GabrielSyme - Friday, March 13 2020 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#386437) #
The 0.6% figure for South Korea is outdated. It is now .9% in South Korea and probably will go higher.
Michael - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#386438) #
It is hard to estimate the death rate by numbers that are still live. There are a number of past examples where the case fatality rate ended up higher in the end than people thought while it was happening (SARS and MERS in part). Not everyone identified in South Korea (or anywhere) that hasn't yet died will remain that way. "we shall remember that while the 2003 SARS epidemic was still ongoing, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a fatality rate of 4% (or as low as 3%), whereas the final case fatality rate ended up being 9.6%."

South Korea as of 3/13/2020, 8:53:06 PM according to the arcgis site with the Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) has 72 deaths and 510 recovered cases (8,086 total cases). The cases that are active and not recovered could well end up in deaths still. So the ratio is not 72/8086 = 0.9% but between there and 72/(510+72) = 72/582 = 12.4%. And that is in South Korea a place that is testing extensively and extremely well, and not overcome from the health system, and working better than most places here.

If you do Italy the same way you have 1,266 dead; 1,439 recovered; 17,660 total cases. That is somewhere between 1266/17660 = 7.2% and 1266/(1439+1266) = 1266/2705 = 46.8%.

This notion that it is just 0.6% is unfortunately just wishful thinking.

And again it is likely to get much worse in places where health systems get overwhelmed - and many health systems are likely to be overwhelmed in the coming few weeks. So the death rates in much of the world is through a more favorable environment than we may see without rapid massive changes in behavior and incredible good luck that doesn't seem that likely.

By the way if you do the same thing for the full world you get 5,429 dead; 71,689 recovered; 145,369 total cases. The same ratio numbers give you 5,429/145,369 = 3.7% and 5,429/(5,429 + 71,689) = 5,429/77,118 = 7.0%.

Yes there may be not yet detected people in the official count, but some portion in the count and not yet recovered will die, as will some portion of the people that we don't even know have the disease. Maybe we'll all be lucky and somehow the fatality rate will be 0.5% or less, but I think there's at least as big a chance that we are unlucky and the fatality rate is 5+%, especially for places that get overwhelmed. Counting on 0.6% or whatever is not what we should do.

And even the calculation with 0.6% and 30% of the population is a shockingly very big number.
dan gordon - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 05:11 AM EDT (#386439) #
Michael, I saw that article from a few hours ago about the South Korean stats, as well. I noticed that you didn't mention that the active cases, which number 7,241, are 99% "mild" cases. This is the nature of the virus. For the vast majority of people who get it the virus presents zero or very mild symptoms. 1% are listed as "serious or critical". So saying the death rate could be as high as 12.4% is absolute nonsense, and is a great example of the kind of fear inducing misleading statements that really upset me. Even if every single one of the cases which aren't "mild" died (which obviously isn't going to happen), the death rate would be only 72 + 59 = 131 out of 8,086, which is about 1.6%, not 12.4%.

And again, what is with the 30% of the population becoming infected nonsense? That same article shows that the number of new cases in South Korea is already rapidly declining. From the peak days of Feb 28 (813 new cases) and Mar 3 (851 new cases) the number of new cases has fallen to just 114 and 110 the last 2 days. The total number of "active cases" there has fallen each of the last 2 days. South Korea's population is roughly 51 million. They have about 8,100 total cases, which isn't even 1%, not even 0.1% of the population. It's less than 2/100ths of 1%, and the number of new cases is now rapidly falling. China has 81,000 cases and a population of 1.5 billion. That's an infection rate of less than 0.01%. Talking about 30% of the population becoming infected is irrational, and only adds to the excessive fear that some people are battling with.
Michael - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 05:44 AM EDT (#386440) #
The 30% numbers were from earlier in this thread above, but also mirror what experts have been talking about for US and others. And 30% isn't the high end, some people are talking 70-80% as the high end estimate. All of these percentages are about modeling how many people will get it, not how many people already have it, to be clear.

"Congress' in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting this week that he expects 70-150 million people in the U.S. — roughly a third of the country — to contract the coronavirus" and "Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, have said that somewhere between 20% and 60% of adults worldwide might catch the virus"


Or if not 30%, what about 70%:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that up to 70% of the country's population - some 58 million people - could contract the coronavirus.

Mrs Merkel made the stark prediction at a news conference on Wednesday alongside Health Minister Jens Spahn.

She said since there was no known cure, the focus would fall on slowing the spread of the virus. "It's about winning time," she explained.


These sorts of numbers aren't completely unprecedented in history either. WWI killed 16 million people. The 1918 flu killed 50 million people and 20% of the world were infected. In the US more than 25% of the people got it and in one year life expectancy in the US dropped by 12 years.

Nothing is certain but death and taxes, but multiple different experts are all communicating clearly that we shouldn't be jumping on the 0.5 or 0.6 % from South Korea and think that explains what will be our experience.
lexomatic - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#386441) #
People need to remember that the 30-70% infection is over the span  of the outbreak and would include people who have no or minimal symptoms and don't get tested. That could be a year or more. Death tolls also don't  consider deaths from other  causes that may have occurred because of facilities being overwhelmed. Absolutely our 2 week period is early april when things are likely to explode after march travelers return. It will probably be too hard to trace all of those cases and it'll move to community spread. Hopefully most people stay home on their return. Lots of people are already canceling trips.Hopefully we've done enough to avoid Italian triage. Absolutely non essential (supply line/emergency) travel to usa should be stopped until they respond appropriately.

scottt - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#386442) #
The 30% estimates comes from the fact that many have mild symptoms and so social distancing becomes the real containment.
There is no mass testing of people who haven't traveled and have mild flu symptoms.
Children can't be out of schools forever, though.

The final outcome should be a vaccine, but the virus seems to mutate.
That's not a good sign. We could be dealing with various strains for years to come.

hypobole - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#386443) #
Hard to find any positivity in what's going on now with Covid, but here's one. All the guidelines put forth by health agencies (social distancing, hand washing, etc) to help slow its spread are also the very things that help slow the spread of the normal flu strains that run through the population each year.

So in my theory at least, both the cases and severe cases of the other flu strains should go down as well, giving a bit more of a buffer for health systems.
GabrielSyme - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#386445) #
It's not reasonable to be taking the lowest possible mortality rate (South Korea), and then using that to make policy, or even form your own expectations. Different age structures, medical norms, and even differential genetic risk factors could result in different mortality rates in different countries.

Secondly, we do not know what the mortality rate in SK will end up being. The .6% quoted earlier in this thread is now .9%. Nobody is saying that the mortality rate is going to be 12.4%, but neither is Dan's 1.6% necessarily the high end. Different countries pretty clearly have different methodologies for categorising cases as "serious or critical"; and what is now a mild case may become a serious case as the disease progresses, and ultimately be fatal.

The proportion of the population that is eventually infected (presuming no vaccine is developed) will depend on the effectiveness of social distancing in different societies, and how much travel continues between countries. The 30-70% estimates represent what is likely to happen if social distancing & other measures fail.

It is too early to say what the eventual infection rate in places like South Korea will be - closed offices and schools aren't going to remain closed for ever, and other social distancing measures may weaken over time as well. Right now they are doing well, and let's hope it works, but there's no guarantee that they'll contain the virus, or that what worked for them will able to be duplicated in Europe or North America. The same factors are at work in China - with the added problem of a government which has every incentive to lie, and a willingness to do so.
bpoz - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#386446) #
Is it correct to say that about 100% of us in Toronto and suburbs have been exposed?

Prior to retirement I worked with many sick people and got exposed to the flu virus. During that time I went to grocery stores, LCBO and the beer store and Christmas parties and family Christmas. At home my wife goes to work. The kids PT work, go to bars & parties and university. In conclusion we are a normal family unit. So 100% exposed to the flu is a sure thing. Correct?

We are healthy so far. Survived it all so far.
bpoz - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#386447) #
Thanks to all who have considered my question. The infection% is probably unknown. The exposure % is about 100%. IMO.
ayjackson - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#386448) #
I find the data coming out of non-Hubei China interesting.

$1.37bn people; 13,000 confirmed cases (0.00095% incidence); 118 deaths (0.91% mortality); 6 new cases yesterday

Basically it doesn't exist.

Making no judgments here, just observing. (maybe developing a conspiracy theory or two)
hypobole - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#386449) #
Is it correct to say that about 100% of us in Toronto and suburbs have been exposed?

Absolutely incorrect, IMO. Nowhere near 100% exposure yet. Do you have a doctor? I highly suggest you discuss this with him. Don't be thinking you're immune before you talk to your doctor.
ayjackson - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#386450) #
Here's a very interesting story on a Chinese researcher who was employed at the International Centre for Infectious Disease in Winnipeg and was escorted out by RCMP last July.

Here's a follow up from January.

btw, I don't generally believe conspiracy theories, but do find them interesting
hypobole - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#386451) #
China has the ability to lock down it's populace like few other nations, and definitely free nations, are able to. They seem to have contained it, at least by those numbers if they're to believed.

In a similar vein, after Trump announced his latest travel ban, I saw a headline stating "Travel bans don't work". I'm not going to list the many ways I despise Trump, but I did't understand why it wouldn't work (at least somewhat).

I read the article. Nowhere in the article did it explain why it wouldn't work, other than "It doesn't work because following the proper measures as advised by the experts works better" as well some nebulous claims of diverting resources. It did detail the inconvenience the ban would cause to those in Europe.

Both sides have agendas, even in times of crisis.

uglyone - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#386452) #
To put the issue into perspective - AYjackson's figures in his post, which I'm sure are only a day or 2 old, are already irrelevant.

For example, he claims 13000 cases and 118 deaths outside of hubei.

When in fact in italy alone there are now over 17k cases and over 1200 deaths.
ayjackson - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#386453) #
The data is from the daily WHO Situation Report, ugly. Not sure how they are irrelevant already. And not sure what it has to do with Italy. I did not mention Italy.

I have no specific knowledge of how they contained it and why it crossed international borders but not provincial borders.

I have no agenda, just curious as to why.
scottt - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#386454) #
The problem with travel bans is that if you stop all flights to and from China--like Italy did--Italians in China will find other ways to go home and it will just be much harder to track.

As soon as China went into lock down, our top vector became people returning from Iran even though there are no direct Iran-Canada flights.

At this point, our prime vector is probably people returning from the US, where there seems to be a lot of community level contagion going on.

uglyone - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#386455) #
Ah you meant within china but not in hubei.
uglyone - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#386456) #
My bad
ayjackson - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#386457) #
i can see the confusion, ugly. ha ha!

i should say on the case of the fired Doctor from the mircobiology lab in winnipeg, that 75% of me believes she is innocent of espionage. scientists will often go to great lengths to advance their research, including sneaking samples to other labs that can do the testing that their current lab can't do.
85bluejay - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#386458) #
What's alarming to me is the increasing frequency of these pandemic outbreaks - it's seems only a matter of time before one of these outbreaks has a catastrophic result as happened in centuries past - millions will probably die - Also closing the White House pandemic response office doesn't seem like a smart move!
ayjackson - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#386459) #
By the way, here is the link to the daily WHO Situation Reports.

and this is a cool site (for more than just SARS-CoV-2) called our world in data from some guys at Oxford...
uglyone - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#386460) #
85 - doctors say this is the new normal. More and more of these types of viruses.

This one is actually only medium contagious AND medium could be way way worse.
uglyone - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#386461) #
Btw if we reverse engineer the numbers for, say, Italy, to guess at the real number of infected in that country:

1266 deaths

3.4% death rate = 37,235 infected
1.0% death rate = 126,600 infected
0.5% death rate = 253,200 infected
0.1% death rate = 1,266,000 infected
uglyone - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#386464) #
ayjackson - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#386465) #
You went the same direction I did, ugly.

Italy has the second highest percentage of population over 65. Interestingly, Germany, with 800+ new cases yesterday, is third.

Vulg - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#386466) #
Pretty hearbreaking to read some of the first-hand accounts out of Italy, where their hospitals have been overrun. I wasn't immediately accepting of the 'social distancing' measures that have been introduced, but have come to accept that in a reality where Covid-19 will proliferate no matter what, how quickly it progresses should be the focus.

I've been reading about the South Korean and Chinese responses, and am marveling at the former in particular. Very different approaches, both have been effective in slowing things. A couple of fairly representative (and mainstream) sources:

South Korea:

uglyone - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#386467) #
here's a physician changing his mind on twitter in 5 days. from re-tweeting Trump non sarcastically on March 9:

"RT @realDonaldTrump: So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!"

to 5 days later:

"So far I've treated 5 confirmed COVID-19 patients reqiring hospitalization, and currently have 14 suspected cases... and I can tell you that in 18 years of medical practice I've never seen anything like this.

I was wrong. This is not influenza. And yes, stay home. We must flatten the curve or our health care system will be paralyzed

It's a severe viral pneumonia. The problem is there is a flood of COVID-19 suspected cases coming to the ER, and we are quickly filling the hospital with them"
uglyone - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#386468) #

For those still not taking this seriously: From our same friend in Italy via her epidemiologist friend in Milan: 35 people under 60 died in N. Italy yesterday. Median age of hospitalization this wk is 40-49. Just in case u think this is only affecting 80+ w/ co-morbid conditions.
uglyone - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#386469) #
For the record, "Severe Viral Pneumonia" is a much better descriptor/comparison for this than "flu", if you want to start guessing at death rates.
dan gordon - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#386470) #
A much better descriptor would be to say that coronavirus can in some cases develop into a severe viral pneumonia. For the vast majority of people who get it, they have mild disease or no symptoms at all.

Number of coronavirus cases and % of the population:

China 81,000, .0056%, roughly 1 out of every 18,000 people
Italy 22,000, .036%, roughly 1 out of every 2,800 people
Iran 13,000, .016%, roughly 1 out of every 6,200 people
S. Korea 8,100, .0157%, roughly 1 out of every 6,400 people
Spain 6,300, .0135%, roughly 1 out of every 7,400 people
USA 2,500, .00075%, roughly 1 out of every 132,000 people
Canada 225, .00059%, roughly 1 out of every 167,000 people

No country has even 1/10 of 1% of their population infected. Talk of 30% - 70% infection rates is alarmist and harmful as it spreads unreasonable fear. Saying things like 100% chance of exposure is ridiculous. And, yes, I know there are some cases which haven't been reported so far, so the actual rates will be slightly higher than the above, but not orders of magnitude higher. As I stated earlier, I am much more worried about the reaction by the public than I am about the virus. The vast majority of people know very little about medicine, biology, and science in general. The wide gap in knowledge allows unreasonable fear to creep in.
greenfrog - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#386471) #
1. What matters is where the numbers end up, not where they are right now.

2. In any event, the numbers being reported may be inaccurate (too low).
grjas - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#386472) #
Yes I get the concern about causing panic and messages have to be balanced. But good lord, Londoners (and Berliners) were bombed every day in the early 40’s and managed through it.

It’s important for people to get the facts about the level of risk for them to accept the significant inconveniences that are being imposed. My bigger fear is that the population won’t have the staying power to support these measures for a long enough period, particularly in the US where individual “rights” seem to trump just about everything.
Michael - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#386473) #
Dan, I think this Canadian quote is worth considering:
"I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been."

The virus is well ahead of the testing, but well behind where it will be in the future. The doubling time is about 6 days currently. If continued that means in one month you end up with 32x as many people, two months 1024x, three months 32,768x, four months 1,048,476x, etc. Drastic measures hope to increase the doubling time in the short term (flatten the curve) and decrease the growth eventually.

If A = the number of people that will eventually get this.
And B = the number of people that currently have this in any stage.
And C = the number of official cases currently reported after testing.

Then if you are deciding what measures are appropriate and what the total impact of this is A is much more important than C. There is an A' that is the number of people that get this in a given time period, because 100,000 needing ICU beds over 18 months is much easier to handle than the same number needing it over 18 days; however, focusing only on C is a really big mistake.

Also, even those that recover can have longer term damage. A non-trivial number of folks recovering are being reported having significantly decreased lung capacity.

There is absolutely some risk due to the side effects of drastic measures; but the far greater risk is the side effects of not drastic enough measures or of starting the drastic measures too late.
dan gordon - Saturday, March 14 2020 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#386474) #
Not only has the "doubling time" not continued in places like China and South Korea, but the number of new cases has already started to decline dramatically. Actual numbers are facts, extrapolations of endless "doubling" are wild speculation.
ayjackson - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#386475) #
Incidence has tripled in the last week outside fo China from 21000 to 61000.

It's gone up about 200 people in China over the same period. Around 81000 total. Whether we can be effective as China in curbing spread is debatable. But we don't need to be. I don't think we get to 50%-70% incidence this year.
hypobole - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#386476) #
We'll probably never get a true answer on the percentages. Ontario for one is limiting testing because of supply shortage.
uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 01:54 AM EDT (#386477) #
" I am much more worried about the reaction by the public than I am about the virus. "

a weird sentiment given that the more natural "ignorant" human reaction isn't "OMG PANIC", but rather "nah it's no big deal it'll pass".
uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 02:01 AM EDT (#386478) #
Listen to this guy:

Dont be this:
Michael - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 03:18 AM EDT (#386479) #
Or, you know, a former Surgeon General of the US (2014–2017):

And this is at the levels people are seeing 2 days ago, not the sure to be coming higher levels.

dan gordon - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 04:14 AM EDT (#386480) #
"given that the more natural "ignorant" human reaction isn't "OMG PANIC", but rather "nah it's no big deal it'll pass"

Are you kidding me? The most basic fear humans have is fear for their life, or their children's lives. Anything that they feel threatens that will always lead to extreme reactions, like panic. That is the most primal instinct of all.

That's why the dissemination of exaggerated extrapolations is so dangerous. The more people believe them the more dangerous the situation becomes, and the more harm is done to society as a whole. People hoarding toilet paper isn't a big deal, but it's a great example of the irrational behaviour a lot of people are already engaging in.
uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#386481) #
Quite the opposite.

The "pfft no big deal" crowd is much, much bigger.
uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#386482) #
And, of course, the "no big deal" sentiment is much more dangerous.
uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#386483) #
🚨NEWT GINGRICH🚨: I Am in Italy Amid the Coronavirus Crisis. America Must Act Now - “We should be planning for a worst-case pandemic and using the kind of intensity of implementation which served us so well in World War II.”
scottt - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#386484) #
One good question is can we step up production of ventilators the way we built tanks, planes and bombs in WW2?

I don't see any country with excess to export in the short term.

scottt - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#386485) #
What's in short supply? Aren't the test just nasal swabs that are sent to labs?
Are we short on oversized Q-tips?  Or is there a bottleneck on the lab side?
South Korea is still testing 20K a day.

ayjackson - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#386486) #
The shelves in the grocery stores suggest the OMG Panic response is real. But it's a useless immeasurable debate.

Manitoba tested 600 Th/Fr with one confirmed case and no presumptive. Haven't heard Saturday's response. As they said on Twitter, even the coronavirus doesn't want to go to Manitoba.
dalimon5 - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#386488) #
" I am much more worried about the reaction by the public than I am about the virus. "

a weird sentiment given that the more natural "ignorant" human reaction isn't "OMG PANIC", but rather "nah it's no big deal it'll pass".

This has to be the comment of the year.

I was taught in grad school that failing to prepare is preparing to fail.
bpoz - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#386489) #
I agree 100% with UO.

Many Bauxites are intelligent and well educated, with impressive degrees. Even the graduates from "the school of hard Knocks" impress me because of your good manners and behavior.

I agree with the word "ignorant".

There is also lies, hiding facts and misinformation. The "nah it will pass" applies in 2 ways that I am seeing. 1) Quoting that the yearly flu season kills more people. 2) Kids birthday parties are NOT being cancelled. This is by parents that are very concerned about the virus but their speech is not reflected in their actions.

bpoz - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#386490) #
To add to my comment. I respect and admire my Bauxite friend's degrees and intelligence. BUT the virus will not. You still have to look after your kids, grand kids and parents. Family matters.

Stay safe my friends.
dan gordon - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#386496) #
Panic is always more dangerous than a reasoned, rational approach. And believe it or not, yes, this WILL pass. And yes, flu DOES kill more people than covid. People don't give flu the respect it deserves. It killed 50,000,000 people in 1919.

Number of coronavirus deaths in the USA so far - 63. Number of deaths from flu in the USA so far this year - roughly 20,000.

Number of active cases in the USA at the moment - 3,411. The number of those that are "mild" - 3,401. Ten are considered serious.
Michael - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#386497) #
There are 48 cases currently hospitalized in my county in the US alone. To claim there are only 10 non-mild cases is a lie.
christaylor - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#386498) #
Well, here is this:
scottt - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#386499) #
The current count in Ottawa is 10 but the city chief medical officer said that the real count is probably in the 1000s. I'm asked to work from home. Everything is shutting down except the food stores.
That includes the hospitals. Nobody should be going there unless it's for a life threatening emergency.
It's happening very fast.

greenfrog - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#386502) #
Here's a useful thread for Dan and others:
uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#386504) #
Dan, your misinformation isn't helping anyone.

uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#386505) #
The CDC is finally getting real down there:

!!NEW CDC guidance: No gatherings over 50 people for 8 weeks.!!

No gatherings of *any size* w/o social distancing, hand hygiene & protecting vulnerable populations.
dan gordon - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#386506) #
uglyone, you are the one who is misguided and alarmist
dan gordon - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#386507) #
here is a link to the site indicating the stats I quoted above
greenfrog - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#386508) #
You can see the "confirmed coronavirus cases in Canada" curve on the Globe and Mail website (free), updated at 4:30 p.m. today. The shape of the curve suggests that many more cases will be appearing in the coming days and weeks.
Mike Green - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#386510) #
Can we please stay away from name-calling. There's a lot of uncertainty about the long-term trajectory of the virus.

We hope for the best and take precautions so the worst is unlikely to happen.

Thanks for the report on the Manitoba testing, ayj. Was that random testing or testing of people who were concerned because of symptoms? Manitoba didn't get its first reported case until March 12. It's very early days there. Migration from Vancouver and Toronto and Minnesota is just beginning, and the new travel restrictions may help them Manitoba a lot. Minneapolis/St. Paul is the closest large city to Winnipeg by a long shot.

uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#386511) #
"uglyone, you are the one who is misguided and alarmist"

1. All the medical experts agree with me.

2. Every place that has taken your advice is now a disaster, or is showing growth curves that indicate imminent disaster.

You are not helping anyone.
ayjackson - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#386513) #
Testing in MB is on symptomatic people and those thought to have been exposed to the virsus. They have capacity to test 500 per day right now. 3 more preumptive cases yesterday to bring it to 7.
Michael - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#386514) #
Some other links to show the 48 hospitalized in my county (and numbers in general have been increasing quickly, as have the social distancing measures required):

Challenges of testing:

World wide numbers:

(look at the yellow line in the chart on the bottom right corner which is the spread outside China)

Note that there were several popular images comparing US to Italy 11 days apart including the graph above from UO posted at "Friday, March 13 2020 @ 12:47 PM EDT" in this very thread. The cases in the US are increasing *faster* than Italy did during that period. The numbers still just through the morning of 3/15 have US above Italy in the chart above here that was posted less than 3 days ago. In other words, the people that Dan has been criticizing in this thread for overreacting have been if anything *underreacting* and the facts on the ground have proven *worse* than the projections shared.

It is true that people shouldn't panic because panic is never useful; however, if the choice is between panic and do nothing and act like you did 3 months ago, people should be much, much closer to panic. People who talk about panic are often (intentionally or unintentionally) framing it as a choice between status quo and panic, and rejecting panic and therefore embracing status quo. Don't do that! Extreme changes to behavior are needed.
Mike Green - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#386515) #
Thanks, ayj.

It would be nice if we had random testing in the 3 large metropolitan areas.
dan gordon - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#386516) #
"All the medical experts agree with me"

Really, you know all of them?

"Every place that has taken your advice is now a disaster"

Advice??? I'm not, and never have, given any advice. I'm simply stating my opinion and posting some very relevant facts that a lot of people aren't paying attention to.

"You are not helping anyone"

That's the 2nd time you said this. I don't think you are helping either, in fact, I think you are helping to spread panic.

I think this is a great article from the National Post, which everybody should read. Included in it are the following facts:

- the average age of people n the USA who have died from coronavirus is 80 years old
- the mortality rate in the USA for people under the age of 70 is approximately 1/4 to 1/5 of 1% (i.e. the survival rate is 99.75% to 99.80%)
- they say the level of danger the virus poses to a country with a sophisticated health care system like the USA or Canada, does not justify the level of media and public hysteria that has assaulted the financial markets and unhinged the media
uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#386517) #
Just stop. You are not helping anyone.

uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#386518) #
Eyeballing these numbers you're looking at it doubling every 2-3 days. Not good.

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Reported US coronavirus cases in March via @CNN:

3/1 - 89
3/2 - 105
3/3 - 125
3/4 - 159
3/5 - 227
3/6 - 331
3/7 - 444
3/8 - 564
3/9 - 728
3/10 - 1,000
3/11 - 1,267
3/12 - 1,645
3/13 - 2,204
3/14 - 2,826
Now - 3,485
dalimon5 - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#386519) #
Yes, Dan please stop. Are you offended honestly that people have created a thread and are warning others about the potential danger? I have co workers and family battling Covid - I don't want to hear you complaining about people "spreading panic," while you share "rationality." Dude get a grip.
uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#386520) #
Of course the US has only done 28000 tests so far so those numbers are way low anyways.

For comparison, 10x smaller canada has already done 25000 tests.
John Northey - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#386521) #
The chart of the daily cases is at Maclean's web site. It is interesting to look at.  Now adding in 1 day what the cumulative total was 10 days ago.  Yikes.  Hopefully that slows down soon or this will be uglier than it already is.  I am amazed we have just the 1 death so far though.
ayjackson - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#386522) #
Easy guys. Dan is a respected poster on here, don't censor him off the site.

He's very correct in stating that there are many experts suggesting less agressive measures may be more appropriate. I'm not afraid to read them.

I read one within the hour from two researches frm the U of T team from sars 1.0. They suggested protecting the elderly and immuno-compromised and not agrssively shutting down society for the youn and healthy. They said this sars-CoV-2 was more akin to the common cold for the vast majority of society.

Who knows. Probably better to err on the agressive side, but there may be some tough roads ahead. Restaurants, malls, gyms, cinemas all closing. Some won't come back.

We can't discuss these things without shouting each other down? Sorry if I'm not helping, ugly.
uglyone - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#386523) #
ayjackson - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#386524) #
It's going to speed up before it slows down, John.
ayjackson - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#386525) #
Well it's almost like they knew that National Post article was going to run and wrote a letter to combat it. Interesting and very persuasive.
ayjackson - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#386526) #
From Twitter...

Data on the first 803 coronavirus deaths in Italy:

* two of those people were younger than 50
* zero younger than 30
* virus is proving deadlier for men than women
* for people in their 80s, the fatality rate is 16.6 percent.

see more here:
hypobole - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#386527) #
Can't be a better source of medical information and advice than Conrad Black.
dan gordon - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 01:57 AM EDT (#386528) #
dalimon5 - YOU are telling ME to get a grip? Now that is rich.

And since when is this a thread for "warning others about the potential danger"? I didn't realize that you had determined what was allowed and not allowed. Here I was thinking this was an open discussion about all sides of the issue. Silly me. Censorship is what you want? Only the one side of the issue is to be mentioned? Only the "sky is falling" side is allowed? OK. You win. You and the small number of other people here who are determined to promote the idea that we are facing impending doom can discuss that to your heart's content. I will save my analysis, based on my lifelong study of science and medicine, for friends who are interested in what I have to say, and value my opinion because they know that I know way more about medicine than they do.

I quit battersbox for a year or two a long time ago because there were some people here who would just keep on shouting down anybody who had an opinion that differed from theirs. Not many, but enough to make it unpleasant. Should have stayed away.
Waveburner - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 03:59 AM EDT (#386529) #
Just thought I would post this article. It's a long read but presents lots of data and graphs.
dalimon5 - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#386530) #

You have repeatedly been criticizing the comments and views reflected outside of the batters box. Consistently referencing a comment that "30-70% of the population getting infected," is dangerous overreaction. Did anybody here make these comments or did you come on the board to criticize public comments made by someone else?

Several posters have responded to you including myself only after you have started to generalize and downplay the entire unfolding of events over the past few days as people continue to die and communities and governments fail to grapple and deal with the growing risk of the situation. There is no record here of posters saying "the sky is falling," which maybe is a view you assumed we have simply by criticizing your nonchalance.

You are simply being called out for your decision to downplay with shock the severity of the situation by repeatedly questioning posts that are simply sharing real time information. Here are some of your posts over the past 7 days:

"there is a lot of misinformation going around, and a lot of over-reacting."

"I'm far, far more worried about the reaction to this virus than I am about the virus."

"30%, 50%, 70% infection rates" is the type of gross exaggeration that leads to the over-reactions we are seeing on so many fronts."

"Talking about 30% of the population becoming infected is irrational, and only adds to the excessive fear that some people are battling with."

"As I stated earlier, I am much more worried about the reaction by the public than I am about the virus. The vast majority of people know very little about medicine, biology, and science in general. The wide gap in knowledge allows unreasonable fear to creep in."

I don't think anyone here is hoarding toilet paper or stocking up for the apocalypse, but we do sense the opposite extreme that you are sharing in your posts.

Perhaps we should not have asked you to stop since this a free forum but in fairness you have suggested first for the stoppage of misinformation, which your posts themselves can be characterized as for some posters. T believe if you would have stuck to your original point of flu vs Covid 19 your posts would have had more success convincing some posters, but you went in a different direction to change your view into "undermining" and ignoring a growing concern by implying it's an irrational response. That's rarely a stance that will inspire others not to criticize.

Mike Green - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#386531) #
Separate and apart from the death rate, the hospitalization rate is 15%.  We do not have the excess capacity in our hospitals (and neither does the US nor the UK) to handle the surge, even if it is spread out over a year.  Necessary treatment for other conditions and for injuries is going to be significantly delayed, and the strain on health care professionals will be extreme.  There are broader lessons about the value in some redundancy and the difficulties in just-in-time "production" whether it is applied to goods or to essentials such as health care services. 

uglyone - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#386532) #
Fauci said the stockpile of ventilators in the US (I assume that means just an emergency federal stockpile) is 12700.

That seems pretty damn meager.
bpoz - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#386533) #
It looks like all my Bauxite friend's brains are working well. Thank you for your efforts. I admit that I cannot keep up with the barrage of information.

Thanks ayjackson on the age sorting of the dead in Italy so far. This helps me keep up.

Just regarding myself so far no sniffels or aches/pains. None. So I will not burden the health system for anything.

Please don't take my information/opinion seriously because I could and probably am wrong.For years the flu shot became available in Oct. But we still had flu. I think some people that did get the flu or a cold had their shot (I don't know so ignore this as fact but just possibility). The last part of my opinion is that every year it seems to me that flu season ends by the end of May. I will watch and wait for that time period.

I wish everyone to stay well and healthy.
uglyone - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#386534) #
canada seems to be on the right path with quick action.

usa still has a chance to minimize it, but are on a dangerous path:

Chuck - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#386535) #
Please don't take my information/opinion seriously because I could and probably am wrong.

No worries, we could all be wrong. This thread is all about sharing information that people are gleaning from experts in the field, and to make sense of it. The data-driven approach taken by most at this site lends itself to viewing the pandemic through that same prism.

uglyone - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#386536) #
This is Goldman Sach's take, and I think we can confidently say they are far away from the "panic" end of the spectrum:

[QUOTE="CH1, post: 3172431, member: 311"]

Useful notes from recent Goldman Sachs conference call with 1,500 companies dialed in.

The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S& P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

hypobole - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#386537) #
bpoz- Flu shots do not prevent colds, flu only. There are different types of flu that come up each year. The flu shot makers try to guess which ones will be most common and make their product for those. So, yes you could still get a different type of flu. And I think only about 40% of people get vaccinated. Flu season doesn't really "end", but flu virus usually weaken in warmer, humid conditions, so they aren't as infectious, but they're still around and some people still get the flu after May.

Covid is not exactly a flu, it's a coronavirus and the most common symptoms for older people are difficulty breathing and fever. Scientists still aren't sure yet if warm humid weather will weaken Covid like it does the flu.
Chuck - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#386539) #
Flu shots do not prevent colds, flu only.

Further to this, there is flu and "flu". The former is specifically influenza. The latter also includes stomach viruses that lead to "flu-like" symptoms. I think people mistakenly criticize the efficacy of their flu shots because they have suffered the latter.

bpoz - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#386540) #
Thanks hypobole.

The difficulty breathing happens with this virus. Also extreme heat and humid weather affects breathing in old people.

I don't want to confuse anyone. These kids are still going to run marathons.
scottt - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#386542) #
There's something ironic about the Lord of Crossharbour reporting on a disease.
The peak with him was his articles on the Trump impeachment given that he's received a pardon from him.

scottt - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#386543) #
Not everybody has to agree on everything.

Lots of posters here are old enough to be at significant risks.
Also I think all the posters here are male, who seems to do worse.

Personally, I'm off for the week and after that I'll have to figure out how to work from home.
I'm debating between buying a laptop--the one I'm using to write this is about 15 years old--or borrowing one from IT.
I'm using Linux so I can update the OS without buying new hardware every couple of years.
However, it's not quite up to the task of what I do at work--also on Linux.

Normally, I'd be getting a haircut now. I'll guess I'll have to a few months.
Instead, I'm home with my 4 grandkids.

A lot of the advice is contradictory.
For instance, many folks are not happy with the screening at the airports.
However, the screening in the US has caused huge crowds of people cramped in close quarters and breathing on one another for hours. That's probably not better.
Who's getting tested depends on the number of tests available.

uglyone - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#386544) #
"However, the screening in the US has caused huge crowds of people cramped in close quarters and breathing on one another for hours. That's probably not better."

thanks to a president who announced a travel ban for show with no thought for the impact of his words, without any planning made for it, and even announced it incorrectly to boot.
uglyone - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#386545) #
Bush's CEA Chair:

rpriske - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#386546) #
Just to be clear, whenever you argue that the 35-70% rates are too high, you are saying that you know better than Dr. David Fisman, University of Toronto Professor of epidemiology.

So, I will keep believing that we need to take action to stop it from getting that high.

That's not panic. That is doing what needs to be done.
scottt - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#386547) #
Panik added to the 40 roster. Yennsy Diaz to the 60IL.

I like it.

It's a tough time for non-roster invitees.

hypobole - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#386548) #
rpriske - We constantly know better than the Blue Jays management and argue incessantly why we are right and they are wrong. Deferring to authority is not one of our strong suits.
bpoz - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#386550) #
Enjoy your baby sitting scottt. I assume they are young so kids movies. Those are the best IMO.

I think you must be elderly and distinguished. I know you are a math major. Good at computers too.

The grand kids will keep you young.

Mike Green - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#386552) #
Here's more from Ben Nicholson-Smith on the optimistic version of the baseball calendar for 2020.   I'm normally a glass half-full person, but I don't see these timelines happening.  It will come clearer by the end of March. 
hypobole - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#386553) #
One item Ben Nicholson-Smith doesn't mention is that the present 162 game schedule will almost certainly be re-done. By the hoped for May 18th start date, the Jays will have 10 Red Sox games gone but only 3 vs Tampa.
Chuck - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#386554) #
I'm normally a glass half-full person, but I don't see these timelines happening.

You can guess what we half-empty types are thinking about the 2020 season.

Mike Green - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#386555) #
I can imagine, and it might end up for the best if that is what happens. 
scottt - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#386557) #
I guess it depends how good we are at flattening the curve.
Hopefully, things can go back to normal by July.

There's going to be a big impact on minor leaguers and draftees.

uglyone - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#386558) #
BREAKING: The entire UK strategy for fighting #coronavirus was based on false analysis. Scientists advising the Gov’t now say the UK only realised "in the last few days" that its Coronavirus strategy would "likely result In hundreds of thousands of deaths"
Chuck - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#386560) #
An interesting, interactive flatten the curve model.
Chuck - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#386561) #
I guess it depends how good we are at flattening the curve.

Of course, the better we flatten the curve, the longer our new normal lasts and the longer it takes for a return to our previous lives. Which is good, of course, since this minimizes the harm.

Michael - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#386562) #
Please do take things seriously and everyone stay safe.

In the San Francisco bay area (where I am, and I think a few others from batter's box like vw_fan are) we are now officially entering a shelter in place across the entire region for weeks. Shelter in place is usually for things like active shooters or dangerous smoke from a refinery or something - and only for a few hours in small areas - but we are doing it from midnight until at least April 7th for the whole region. See

It's not quite a lockdown, but it is pretty close. As some others said, what people see in Italy and other places is not a worse case scenario, but is more a preview of what is coming here soon, especially if people don't change behavior. The changes in behavior can make things better, but there is unfortunately a significant lag on that. Because what we are seeing now in terms of counts is what was happening 5-15 days ago in terms of behaviors, interactions, and infections. So we still have 1-2 or more doublings of things to go baked into the system even if current actions end up eventually being the right effective actions in slowing the spread.

Trump, who has been minimizing things generally, was talking in today's press conference about changes stretching to July and August.

I hope Canada's actions will make things better for most on this board, but Canada's count of infections today are about where the US (as a country 10x Canada's size) was 8 days ago. If you do confirmed cases : total population Canada is approximately in line with the US right now.
SK in NJ - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#386563) #
In my area things are shutting down. Companies telling employees to work from home. Schools closing. Gyms, restaurants, bars, etc, shut down (basically anything non-essential), with only essentials (groceries, gas stations, etc) remaining open. This is incredibly frustrating but if this is what is required to hopefully slow the progress of the virus, then so be it.

As far as baseball, I think best case is probably some time in June. If North America does a good job with social isolation and preventing new cases, then maybe this will die down enough in the next two months to slowly start going back to normal. Start with empty stadium games and slowly work up from there. MLB was a $10B industry last season. They'll lose a significant amount of money this season (much like every other sport except maybe the NFL due to their timing), but killing off an entire season would be a huge disaster financially, especially with the CBA up for renewal in a year and a half. I think they'll do everything in their power to get a season in, even if it's a 80-100 game season.
grjas - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#386564) #
I hope Canada's actions will make things better for most on this board, but Canada's count of infections today are about where the US (as a country 10x Canada's size) was 8 days ago. If you do confirmed cases : total population Canada is approximately in line with the US right now.

I noticed that too, but In terms of tests as a percentage of population, we have done 10x as many as the US. So I suspect their case numbers are much more underreported than ours.
scottt - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#386565) #
I expect large cities to be hit hard.
Areas with a lower density of population might do better, although, they also have significantly less hospital space.

BC is unhappy that the border is not closed to Americans.
I understand that they are close to Seattle, but if you close everything--bars, restaurants, hotels, etc--you won't be getting much tourists anyway.

Worrying about the economic side is a lot like worrying about the baseball season.
I don't see what playing with the interest rates is going to achieve.
The economy will recover once it's over.
The oil industry seems to be in for a rude awakening.
An eastern pipeline seems like a terrible idea now and the last election was just a few months away.

ayjackson - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#386566) #
Do you have a source for this one, uglyone?

BREAKING: The entire UK strategy for fighting #coronavirus was based on false analysis. Scientists advising the Gov’t now say the UK only realised "in the last few days" that its Coronavirus strategy would "likely result In hundreds of thousands of deaths"
Chuck - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#386567) #
Do you have a source for this one, uglyone?

Google "UK herd immunity".

ayjackson - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#386568) #
Looks like we're social distancing for 18 months then. Or until vaccinated.

Meanwhile Holland adopts herd immunity as Britain pivots.
Mylegacy - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#386569) #
Not a herd of know nothings - the UK Daily Mail has a clip on it's front page with stats - The DM is saying Boris SFB (Shit For Brains) is suggesting a possible "160,000 deaths."

Gentlemen, game on. Who wants to shuffle the deck first?

Personally, I'm immune. Scottish, single malt, immunity. I highly recommend it.

Mylegacy - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#386570) #
Correction, she who must be obeyed says I've goofed. The number in the article is "260,000"deaths."

Me, make a mistake? Gotta make my next tipple a double...
uglyone - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#386571) #
Vulg - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#386572) #
Personally, I'm immune. Scottish, single malt, immunity. I highly recommend it.

Bourbon, slight preference for wheated, is my weapon of choice.
hypobole - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#386573) #
Here's a fact-based breakdown that helps explain why Italy's Covid death rate is much higher than Korea's.

ayjackson - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 03:14 AM EDT (#386574) #
I feel like back in the days of yore, they would have mandated ball players and golfers back to work to help with national moral. No crowds. Regulated environment. No contact sports.

Maybe a bit early.
Michael - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 05:34 AM EDT (#386575) #
People were asking for the source of the uk strategy of mitigation being wrong and the more severe strategy of suppression being needed. The link is a sobering read and not for the faint of heart. If you get everything right with suppression for most of the next 18-24 months you can cut these deaths by a factor of 10-15 (see the many tables in the paper). Also apologies if this ends up a double point the preview ate my first draft. ( pdf link)
Michael - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 05:39 AM EDT (#386576) #
I'll provide some of the choice quotes to show some of the conclusions:

In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

However, this "optimal" mitigation scenario would still result in an 8-fold higher peak demand on critical care beds over and above the available surge capacity in both GB and the US.

Given suppression policies may need to be maintained for many months...Table 4 shows that social distancing (plus school and university closure, if used) need to be in force for the majority of the 2 years of the simulation

To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population - which could be 18 months or more... However, we estimate that for a national GB policy, social distancing would need to be in force for at least 2/3 of the time (for R0=2.4, see Table 4) until a vaccine was available

In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.

However, we emphasise that is not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.
ayjackson - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#386577) #
Thanks, Michael. I will give it a thorough read.

This could change society forever. Virtual schools may become the norm.

Interesting that upon the release of that report, UK chose mitgation and Holland went the other route. Tough time to be a PM.
scottt - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#386578) #
The 2 years time frame only applies if self isolation is completely successful and we're waiting for a vaccine. We're more likely to hit the 50% mark after a few months.
Also, while I could work from home forever, many will have to return to work before too long.

I'm curious to see how well funded will be the various public pension plans after this.
Just take the municipal cops for example. Cities are not allowed to carry debt and those plans will come up short massively.

Mike Green - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#386579) #
Thanks, Michael.  That is informative.

It should be clear that the likely fall rebound of the virus means that the best thing is if the baseball season is simply cancelled.  Here is a story on the 1918 H1N1 pandemic and baseball. And here is your song of the day.
Parker - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#386580) #
I hope everyone's coping well.

Alberta finally closed the schools, but for some reason, the staff still all have to go in. It's most likely a political move to placate the idiots who think that teachers have a free ride here.

I nominate this for song of the year.
Chuck - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#386581) #
This could change society forever. Virtual schools may become the norm.

The paradox of life on our planet. As we grow in numbers (aside: check out Empty Planet for an interesting demographic analysis), we become more and more isolationist, more content to commune with our gadgets than with each other (says the guy communing with his gadget). Or maybe the idea of in-person, real-time, face-to-face contact will be, or perhaps already is, anachronistic. OK boomer.

Homo sapiens ain't what it used to be!

Mike Green - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#386582) #
John Lott has a terrific interview with Pat Gillick over at the Athletic.  Gillick is 82 years old and still going strong. Long may he run.
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#386583) #
Keith Law has his top 30 prospects over at the Athletic.  #2 is Austin Martin.  It's a good name for a baseball-playing Martin, but I think that Remy would have been a better choice. 
bpoz - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#386584) #
Like Remy Martin.

I was wondering if "Ok Boomer" is some kind of insult because it sounds disrespectful.

Happy St Patricks day!! I will go out for a beer in the afternoon/evening like I always do. I love my backyard.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#386585) #
The paradox of life on our planet. As we grow in numbers (aside: check out Empty Planet for an interesting demographic analysis), we become more and more isolationist, more content to commune with our gadgets than with each other (says the guy communing with his gadget)
The problem is - we've gotten so "free" to say whatever the heck we want online, trying to be less of an asshole in person becomes stifling and feels awkward, so we prefer to talk to those we agree with online.. Unless we really make the effort.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#386586) #
I was wondering if "Ok Boomer" is some kind of insult because it sounds disrespectful.
Yes, it IS intended as an insult..
bpoz - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#386587) #
Thanks vw_fan17.
krose - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#386588) #
Thanks for that article Michael. Very informative and interesting. Have past it along to family and friends.
scottt - Tuesday, March 17 2020 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#386589) #
Over here, the buses are running, but the drivers are now completed isolated from from the public--except those on wheelchairs--who are segregated at the back. They don't bother to collect fares.
Too risky for the drivers. It's not exactly reassuring if you're a rider.

uglyone - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#386591) #
Looks like I was way, way too optimistic.
mathesond - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#386592) #
Don't blame yourself, uo.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#386593) #
Phil Hughes posted on twitter a picture a letter from the Yankees inviting him to participate in an old-timer's game.  His response: "Really guys, I'm 33". 
ayjackson - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#386594) #
This will be the worst economic meltdown in 90 years.
grjas - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#386596) #
And it likely could have been contained.
uglyone - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#386598) #
Hey dan gordon come back no grudges.
bpoz - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#386599) #
Yes. Please Dan.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, March 19 2020 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#386602) #
Mylegacy, I just ran across a comment from you after the 2018 season lauding Alejandro Kirk to the skies. Pretty prescient given how he performed last year and this spring.
John Northey - Thursday, March 19 2020 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#386603) #
Michael - Thursday, March 19 2020 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#386604) #
It is good and interesting (especially the nice cut of different regions) but some of the data in that seems stale.

It reports for me right now the US has 11,783 cases and 154 deaths and 8 recovered and 60 serious.

However reports as of 3/19/2020, 2:43:03 PM that US has 13,159 cases and 176 deaths and 108 recovered (and no serious info).

Similarly if I go to the map view of the data from the link I can see Santa Clara county reporting 114 cases and 2 deaths in the link provided - which I think was the accurate numbers from about 3-4 days ago, but now my county according to as of 5 pm yesterday (March 18) is up to 189 cases, 6 deaths, with 62 of them in the hospital.

I think some people also see the small number of "serious" in some of these stats - like the 60 in the stale US numbers above - and think that means the rest are "mild" like the flu. I know that was Dan's contention earlier in this thread. This isn't the case as illustrated from the fact that my county has more people in the hospital than those stats are reporting are serious across the whole US. So either the definition of serious is much more serious than folks would expect (like maybe it means needing ECMO past even "normal" critical ICU/ventilators) or else the serious numbers are harder to correlate and collect and as a result a lot are missing.
bpoz - Thursday, March 19 2020 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#386606) #
Thanks all. Your honesty and sincerity is very reassuring.
Magpie - Sunday, March 22 2020 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#386610) #
right now the US has 11,783 cases

It just cleared 29,000 this morning. Life comes at you fast these days.
bpoz - Sunday, March 22 2020 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#386611) #
The mayor of the hardest hit area in Italy says that the numbers are not accurate they are much higher. He explained that many elderly that died are not being tested for the virus. Their bodies are just taken away. So if they were infected and died they were not added to the count.

I can understand using all your available manpower on helping those still alive. So what he says makes sense to me.

I believe that the corpses are being cremated because some viruses and bacteria can survive in a dead host. Not being a scientist my knowledge is limited.
Michael - Sunday, March 22 2020 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#386612) #
As of "3/22/2020, 10:43:06 AM" the US is at 30,285 according to
So that is an additional 1200 or so from what Magpie posted still in this morning.
Canada is up to 1,378 cases now (what the US was at 10-11 days ago).
85bluejay - Sunday, March 22 2020 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#386613) #
I think it's best to view infection totals with some skepticism - more testing , higher totals - some places are playing the "ignorance is bliss' card.
Chuck - Sunday, March 22 2020 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#386614) #
I think it's best to view infection totals with some skepticism

Yes indeed. Without enough resources to do random testing, there's no telling what fraction of the infected population has received a positive test. If we're going to put an asterisk on Maris' 1961 HR total and on Bonds' career total, we definitely need one on the infection totals as well.

RSN is showing a classic game today: A's vs. Blue Jays in 2019. I believe the definition of classic has changed to "it took place before today; nothing of significance necessarily happened". Enjoy!

bpoz - Sunday, March 22 2020 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#386615) #
Since my last post we have had 3 more posts. To me it seems to be a slow few days on da Box. Please read to the end of my post.

Personally I am doing fine.
1) 68 years old. So kinda an old man.
2) I have very good physical health. So no concerns.
3) My mental health is strong. No issues.

On facebook (sorry) I read that a 64 year old man in NY killed himself by jumping out of his 16th floor apartment. They are saying mental health issues.

I respect all Bauxite's private/personal characteristics.

I do miss the baseball talk that has dried up here but it will not harm me as I visit some other sites but never comment there. I also have non baseball interests.

For any Bauxite's that are lonely or shy I will try to generate some baseball talk. Blue Jay conversation makes my day more enjoyable.

I hope I did not offend anyone. CHEERS!!!
bpoz - Sunday, March 22 2020 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#386616) #
Sorry to continue about bad emotional/mental health issues.

I may have wrong facts on the following due to poor memory.

Mike Flanagan: Gunshot wound. Possible suicide.

The reliever out of the KC system that had some kind of mental issue. He made it to the Majors. A few sensitive and kind/good hearted people helped him with this issue.

John Northey - Sunday, March 22 2020 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#386617) #
It is very quiet here for obvious reasons - I've been spending spare time developing a site for fun for my daughter's house league hockey team - she was dominate there last year and really should've been in competitive but didn't want to try out for the B level team after not making the A level - after doing one practice with the B team as their backup player she knew she could've done well there.  Ah well.  Instead she scored 37 goals to lead her league by a mile, including 9 in 6 playoff games to end the season - should've had 3 more games for finals for 2 titles (one a best of 3, the other a one game winner take all) plus an all-star game.  Sadly COVID-19 canceled everything before they could win either title.  Such is life, but for a teenager that is a killer for a few days.  Ah for the drama of a teenager where that is everything.

I still have no idea how I'll get through the next few weeks/months with no school, no day care, no ability to hand off kids to family.  Being a single parent with a 5 and 14 year old means non-stop headaches it seems as both need to be entertained, and are too far apart in age to really entertain each other.

As to my health, 50 with high blood pressure & high cholesterol.  Minimal risk of this disease being deadly to me or my kids, but don't want to spread it or risk it.  Miss the simple things like baseball and going to movies.  Can't help but wonder how bad the suicide rate will be in a month as people get sick of being cooped up and start snapping.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, March 23 2020 @ 07:29 AM EDT (#386618) #
Hang in there,John. It's hard to entertain kids without the alternative of going to a movie or a restaurant, or having a friend over. My wife is babysitting our grandchildren ( aged 3 and 1 1/2 ) as her daughter is a dialysis nurse and her husband has a government job and is working at home. Their daycare has closed which is the same for so many people now.
bpoz - Monday, March 23 2020 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#386619) #
Yes. Hang in there. You all have inner strength, friends and family.
Michael - Monday, March 23 2020 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#386620) #
Interesting Athletic article on ~20 Jays minor league players (most of them from Venezuela) stuck in Florida at the spring training hotel due to being unable or unsafe to travel home.
Thomas - Monday, March 23 2020 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#386621) #
Chuck, I agree with your point, although it goes beyond the lack of random testing.

There are people with symptoms of covid-19 who aren't being tested because they aren't prioritized as someone who needs one of the limited number of tests. And people are waiting up to (or longer) than five days for test result to get back.
Michael - Monday, March 23 2020 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#386622) #
The testing is certainly a confounding concern; however, yesterday I posted numbers from "3/22/2020, 10:43:06 AM" and right now there are numbers from "3/23/2020, 10:48:33 AM" basically 24 hours later (it is possible these are PT, because that is my timezone). But in those 24 hours we've had:

US count from 30,285 to 41,511 an increase of 11,226 cases, a 37% daily increase!

Canada count from 1,378 to 1,560 (around what US was on March 13 10 days ago) an increase of 182, a 13% daily increase.

Some of this might be increased testing, but exponential growth is not a joke.
85bluejay - Monday, March 23 2020 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#386623) #
Will be interesting to see how Sweden's "building herd immunity" strategy and Brazil's "It's just another type of flu" approach work out.
Chuck - Monday, March 23 2020 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#386624) #
US count from 30,285 to 41,511 an increase of 11,226 cases, a 37% daily increase!

It really is difficult to tease out the true rate of growth given all the conflating factors.

  • As Thomas mentioned, there are symptomatic people not getting tested due to test shortages.
  • There are a jillion of us non-symptomatic people not getting tested.
  • The rate of testing appears to be on the rise, meaning more of the infected population is simply making itself known.
  • There is about a two week lag before becoming infected and testing positive, meaning that today's positives were likely infected pre-social distancing.

While it's safest to operate on the premise that the growth rate is still exponential, a good piece from the coveted logarithmic, we are still in the dark, unable to see the real picture.

The problematic data is leading some to take a contrarian view of all this.

uglyone - Monday, March 23 2020 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#386625) #
Best thing to use imo would be hospitalization rates, but those haven't been tracked so well.
85bluejay - Monday, March 23 2020 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#386626) #
Looks like the U.S is going to be open for business in a few weeks, come hell or high water.
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#386627) #
On the positive side, I couldn't be prouder of the Canadian Olympic Committee's leadership on the postponement of the Games.  They get the gold from me. 
Chuck - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#386628) #
It's sad they had to take their stand in advance of the IOC making what has been a long-delayed, obvious decision. The IOC is a shameful organization. Yet another data point.
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#386629) #
The BP 2020 Blue Jays preview is available.  The one line available to non-subscribers is "it's an extremely high-variance team".  I could not agree more with that. 
Michael - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#386631) #
It isn't actually clear that the wet market was the cause as opposed to a place where there were lots of people near the first cases (like the bio conference in MA or wedding in SK). See figure 1 B from where you can see the first patients didn't have any wet market exposure.
uglyone - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#386632) #
If you want to try and ban wet markets and/or specific animals for eating for all over the world after this mess, that's fine. (China ain't the only place that does it).

But make no mistake- blaming china for the virus a) does nothing to help us get through it now, and b) is most definitely an easy racial scapegoating to deflect any accountability for our ineffective response.
hypobole - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#386633) #
Yes, bushmeat is common elsewhere and has caused epidemics in countries other than China. AIDS probably from a chimpanzee, Ebola probably from a small species of bat.

Pressuring the Peoples Republic of China more than they were pressured after the SARS outbreak does nothing to help us now, but may prevent a future pandemic. The Peoples Republic of China is a multi-ethnic country, not a race. And on the subject of racial scapegoating, is it racist to point out that up to 10% of the minority Muslim Uygur population in China are being detained in re-education camps?

Finally, using your logic, talking of accountability for our ineffective response also does nothing to help us through it now. Does that mean there shouldn't be any finger-pointing whatsoever?

uglyone - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#386634) #
Holding each other accountable for the actions we are taking right now to stop this thing makes perfect sense and needs to be done to adjust our response and get through this right now.

Railing about wet markets does nothing about the current situation, unfortunately.
Vulg - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#386635) #
It isn't actually clear that the wet market was the cause as opposed to a place where there were lots of people near the first cases (like the bio conference in MA or wedding in SK). See figure 1 B from where you can see the first patients didn't have any wet market exposure.

That uncertainty aside, I think it's also important to distinguish between scrutiny of wet markets (which is legitimate) and the dangerous rhetoric being spewed by certain leaders. We have fools like this Texas Senator inflaming a situation where Chinese Americans and Canadians are being targeted:

I've seen how racist BS can manifest just this week while buying groceries. Yes, this virus seems to have originated in China, but the words people use matter. Apparently not everybody can consume and apply critical thought to what our "leaders" say.
hypobole - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#386636) #
What actions are you taking, uo?

My family and I are in day 7 of a self-imposed quarantine because the person my wife was training went to work with some sort of illness and my wife got a sore throat. She's much better and it seems to have spared my son and I so far. Even beyond the 14 days, I'll probably stay as quarantined as possible. Not much else I can do.

Posting a bunch of statistics does nothing about our current situation, but also does nothing to help prevent another pandemic either. However, I haven't and will not criticise any posts or posters with any correct information .

uglyone - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#386637) #
I'm holed up good. When I do go out I fully use social distancing.

And I think canadians are doing an pretty good job on a personal level.

I have plenty of reservations about our government response so far, though at least it's not the disaster in the making that's happening in the US.
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#386638) #
Statistics, in my view, do help in dealing with it.  For me, it's useful to know how long we will likely have to take significant measures to reduce transmission (for one thing).  It's also useful to know what the limits of our medical system's ability to handle incoming.

UO's quoting of statistics was a response (I think) to incorrect information provided by a number of world "leaders". 

For myself, I am waiting for the day when some country somewhere prioritizes lives over economy.  Some genuinely do try to keep those two in balance, but sadly they are in the minority. 
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#386639) #
I am waiting for the day when some country somewhere prioritizes lives over economy.

I too await such a day, and work towards it; but I am not holding my breath. Voters, in general, prefer greater wealth for themselves than the lives of the unseen and overlooked.

In the present moment, while we should advocate for responsible policies, it's neither surprising nor absurd that some, confronted with widely differing estimates of the potential or likely impact of coronavirus, prefer a different balance between public health and economic goals. We also need to recognise that they aren't two unconnected values - not only does economic strength pay for our medical system, but unemployment and poverty undermine good health. Let's be charitable even to those who are making incorrect calculations.
bpoz - Tuesday, March 24 2020 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#386640) #
Great hypobole!! I have practiced self discipline my whole life. Such as put things in their place and you won't lose it.

Good for you as well UO.

Trudeau said "Go home and stay home". Grocery stores and LCBO are considered essential. I went out to those stores today. I also look out of my window at a busy main street.

I saw on the public streets:

1)3 young people 17, 8 and maybe 9 year old girls walking their dog. Family my guess.

2) 50 year old riding his bike.

3) Adults walking their dogs. Adults walking with kids.

4) Young man pushing a stroller.

That is not "staying home" for March 24/20. I did not report anyone.

I made the excuse that not everyone has a car so they walk. Maybe the 2 40 year old ladies walking the dog had a bottle of wine in their handbag. Others are going to the grocery store or buying alcohol.

You "cannot"rule out the possibility that some people are walking on the street with no intention to purchase alcohol or groceries. Are they in the wrong and commiting a crime of some sort?
John Northey - Wednesday, March 25 2020 @ 01:46 AM EDT (#386641) #
One way to look at it is total deaths - those are a bit more fixed than tests for it are.  Using data from which has it by day...

First death to 100th...
Canada: not there yet (15 days from first death)
USA: 18 days
Italy: 12 days
China: 18 days

To 500th...
USA: 24 days (6 days) reached today
Italy: 18 days (6 days)
China: 27 days (9 days)

To 1000th....
Italy: 20 days (2 days)
China: 32 days (5 days)

To 2000th...
Italy: 24 days (4 days)
China: 40 days (8 days)

To 5000th...
Italy: 30 days (6 days)

Scary stuff - the US is speeding up, from China's pace to Italy's and speeding up.  Meanwhile their idiot in chief is talking of reopening everything in a couple of weeks, while some churches are holding services for 1000+ people.  I fully expect the US to be a total disaster zone by the end of this with Trump going down in history as the worst "leader" ever in their history by a mile over this.  I expect their 1000th to be reached before the weekend, 2000th before Monday, 5000th by mid-week next week.  I'd love to be wrong but all the evidence screams I might be optimistic on this.  I expect the US to surpass Italy in deaths within 3 weeks, well over 10,000 by then or more than three 9/11's.
Vulg - Wednesday, March 25 2020 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#386642) #
I think several States are so far behind or ill-equipped for testing that there will be a lag, or perhaps even gaps, in reporting confirmed COVID-related deaths. I don't really trust those statistics, or at least their timeliness.

Personally, I'd like to see a metric that measures hospital capacity tracking on a per-State basis to get a better idea of how close the system is to being overrun (i.e. the Italy situation).

Go figure, a baseball community site thirsting for better advanced metrics!
scottt - Wednesday, March 25 2020 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#386643) #
The danger is close proximity to live animals who are sick with a virus that can mutate and affect humans.

The danger here is mostly the culling of infected herds.
Swine flu and avian flu can originate here but the real danger is in Asia where the virus migrates to human.

As for the first case in China.
It's probably associated with a wet market anyway.
It's mostly a bat virus with a mutation found in pangolins.
Bats don't naturally hang around other mammals.
It's only in those markets that you can find pangolins, bats and humans.
In a zoo, there's not a lot of community infection spreading across the animal populations.

In the case of ebola, it involves mostly the handling of dead animals.

85bluejay - Wednesday, March 25 2020 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#386645) #
I would not be surprised if so called "Red States" do some fudging in attributing deaths to covid-19 - they want business as usual back as soon as possible - As they say " The first casualty of war is truth."
Mylegacy - Wednesday, March 25 2020 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#386646) #
Spotted LIVE - actual - real - Blue jays Baseball News!!!

Clayton Richer is reporting on that we've inked Jeury Hiciano an 18 or 19 year old (seen it as either age) RHP.

Tops at 97 sits at 94-95. Fastball grades 60 expected to be 79. Looks like a keeper.

God willin' an' the river don't rise by the time he's ready this pandemic will be starting to loosen it's grip. If we're lucky.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, March 25 2020 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#386647) #
70 not 79...
dalimon5 - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#386648) #
What happened to that poster who kept telling everyone that Covid 19 was overblown and that people were panicking about nothing?
85bluejay - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#386649) #
He's now the President of Brazil.
Mike Green - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#386650) #
Please.  Canadians have done pretty well over all so far.  Even our Conservatives have in the main kept a pretty solid focus on the health of Canadians.  Unlike their southern counterparts.

So instead of crowing about being right about the seriousness of a health crisis (on a baseball website of all things), let's focus on what is actually happening now.  Ross Atkins floated the idea of many more doubleheaders (each game lasting 7 innings) so that clubs can play a 162 game season this year.  The idea gets a big thumbs down from me.  Let's take the best case scenario- the virus mysteriously departs the planet in mid-May with no new cases anywhere for 2 weeks.  In that case, it probably does make sense to play a season, but the idea that baseball must have a 162 game season is ridiculous in light of the game's history of 154 game seasons and shortened seasons during strikes/lockouts.  To try to do it after a very late start with hospitals having just gone through a terrible period would show a profound lack of care for player health and society as a whole.
dalimon5 - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#386651) #
Would have to agree with Mike.
bpoz - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#386652) #
As usual, I am hoping everyone and their family are safe.
hypobole - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#386653) #
And I got called out for finger-pointing for placing the root cause blame where it squarely belongs.
Dan's viewpoint was very commonly held by the far right media at the time. We all have different ideologies and no one ideology is correct all the time.

Was hardly mentioned, but about a week ago, Dr Li Wenliang was officially (but sadly posthumously) exonerated by the Peoples Republic of China.

Li had posted to a group chat with other medics about some patients showing signs of a new SARS-like illness in early December, well before Chinese authorities admitted to the outbreak. Police detained Li a few days later for “spreading false rumours” and forced him to sign a police document admitting that he had “seriously disrupted social order” and breached the law.

uglyone - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#386654) #
ideology shouldn't have anything to do with it.

facts are facts. relevance is relevance.

if your ideology confuses either of those, then you should ditch that ideology.
cascando - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#386655) #
Perhaps an 81 game season is a realistic goal. Even that might require teams to start playing in front of empty stadiums. It might not be practical, but with the types of new and advanced COVID tests that are going to come on the market in the next couple of months, it seems at least conceivable to manage things so that players, coaches, umpires and a skeletal staff could be in the stadium. Baseball has an advantage over most other sports since players are basically "socially distancing" whenever they're in position. If they replace the home plate umpire with a robot, it would be even better (for a number of reasons).

With no sports of any level being played, and people spending an inordinate amount of time inside, I expect the TV ratings would be through the roof.
Chuck - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#386656) #
players are basically "socially distancing" whenever they're in position.

But they are not when they are in the clubhouse, on airplanes, in hotels, etc. And the poor catchers and first basemen are vulnerable to the especially phlegmatic.

hypobole - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#386657) #
Here's something that affects everyone and should be shared. We all need groceries, but those groceries have been handled by people and are potentially contaminated. Here is how a doctor handles his after purchase. Lots of "food for thought".
Mike Green - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#386659) #
Ideology does have something to do with it.  There are trade-offs between risks to health and economy.  We all make those trade-offs somewhere, and our versions of what is an "acceptable risk" differ with ideology playing an important role.  It's not simply left-right ideology though, although that is part of it.
hypobole - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#386660) #
Well said Mike.

Tucker Carlson is a Fox News host, and pretty far right in his ideology, but he was warning Americans to take this seriously in early February. It's the anti-science thought, especially in America, but Canada as well that is the huge issue rather than left-right ideology itself. The anti-vaxxer's encompass a broad range of ideologies, with the most notable anti-vaxxer's early on (e.g. Bill Mahar) much more left leaning.
85bluejay - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#386661) #
With few exceptions (South korea), I think governments(left/right/in-between) have handled the pandemic very poorly - very late & slow to preparation and action.
hypobole - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#386663) #
Oops. So much time on my hands and I still didn't bother to preview my last post. Neither "anti-vaxxer's" should have had apostrophes.
Vulg - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#386664) #
Really good read on the pandemic, the series of events that has led us here etc.:

Blows my mind that the US had only ~1,000 tests done in the month of February (they're up to ~300K per week and climbing).
Mike Green - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#386665) #
The Atlantic piece had one thing that bugged me.  The "worst case" in the article was not really the worst case.  It's a lot worse than that, and has maybe a 5-10% chance of happening. 
John Northey - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#386669) #
The biggest problem with early action (or even today action) is the challenge of politics - you close down a school and everyone complains about 'what do I do with my kids', you say 'only essential businesses' and people complain about what is or is not.  And so on.  Unless there are literally people dying in the streets too many will fight any restrictions - I was guilty of it too at first. as I'm sure many here were too.  Hard to see the big picture unless you are privy to details most of us will never see, or have experience none of us ever want.  That is why we need the professionals to decide this stuff more than the politicians.
Michael - Friday, March 27 2020 @ 01:55 AM EDT (#386674) #
Keep staying safe everyone.

The US has now passed China for #1 most confirmed cases in the world (Italy will soon pass China too, but US is accelerating faster than Italy and in fact also passed Italy today).

As of "3/26/2020, 9:55:53 PM" the US is at 85,991. This is a little more than doubling in the 3.5 days since I last posted numbers in the thread. For deaths the US is now at 1,296 deaths with only 753 officially recovered.

As of the same time Canada is up to 4,046 cases. 3.5 days ago it was 1,560 so this is closer to tripling than doubling in that same period (I.e., it is increasing faster as a percentage than the US is). Canada remains about 10 days behind the US (March 16 the US had 4,019 confirmed cases) in the total count. For deaths and recovery Canada is doing a little better at 38 deaths and 184 recoveries.

Canada right now does have slightly more confirmed cases than California, despite California having more people and being one of the hot spots in the US, which is at 4,040 (but it wouldn't surprise me if Canada weren't testing more people than we have been in California and if California doesn't have more true cases than Canada).

The other numbers of interest in my county is the age breakdown of the tested cases. We are generally only testing the most sick where the test result could change treatment, rather than everyone or even everyone with symptoms, but if you look at the age break down for my county which as of 5 pm yesterday had 542 confirmed cases, 154 of which were hospitalized, with 19 dead you see (in descending order):

Age: cases
41-50: 115
51-60: 104
31-40: 99
61-70: 68
71-80: 51
21-30: 48
Over 80: 30
20 or under: 19
Unknown age: 8

The top 3 groups are the 31-50 demographic!

You can argue that the demographics are likely the case that there are more middle age people than old people in our county (wikipedia in 2000 said "24.7% under the age of 18, 9.3% from 18 to 24, 35.4% from 25 to 44, 21.0% from 45 to 64, and 9.5% who were 65 years of age or older"), so the relative risk if older could certainly be higher, but this isn't just a disease of the "very old". Similarly the NY Times "People are Dying" video from elmhurst hospital in Queens ( has the doctor talking about people between 30-50 with no co-morbidities, don't smoke, still getting life threateningly sick. And New York running out of supplies while things are still ramping up.
uglyone - Friday, March 27 2020 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#386675) #
Note that when he talks to China, he no longer calls it a "China Virus". Tells you everything you need to known about what the "China Virus" label is actually about.


Just finished a very good conversation with President Xi of China. Discussed in great detail the CoronaVirus that is ravaging large parts of our Planet. China has been through much & has developed a strong understanding of the Virus. We are working closely together. Much respect!
Jonny German - Friday, March 27 2020 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#386676) #
Here's something that affects everyone and should be shared. We all need groceries, but those groceries have been handled by people and are potentially contaminated. Here is how a doctor handles his after purchase. Lots of "food for thought".

Some of what he says in that video makes sense, but good chunks of it do not. Here's a good summary of what he gets wrong:
hypobole - Friday, March 27 2020 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#386677) #
Day 10

Oh that Covid disease
don't want to cough and or sneeze
I'm feeling lazy
driving wife crazy
"Could you stop singing, please!"
14 days in the hole
that's what they tell you
14 days in the hole.
hypobole - Friday, March 27 2020 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#386678) #
Thanks, Jonny, except I don't quite understand the "don't wash produce in soapy water - it will make you sick" part, even if it's unnecessary. I wash plates with soap, then eat food off those plates, as does everyone else.
scottt - Friday, March 27 2020 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#386681) #
Canada is not testing as much as we'd like.
The US is barely testing at all.

The number of deaths is a good indication of the number of unreported cases.

Mike Green - Friday, March 27 2020 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#386682) #
Music for the day comes from Tom Waits, channeling Buddy Holly.
uglyone - Friday, March 27 2020 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#386689) #
So yeah I had to run some pace stats.

Canada Covid Deaths per day since first death, in 6-day segments:

Day 01-06: 0.2 /day
Day 07-12: 1.8 /day
Day 13-18: 4.5 /day
Today (Day 19): 14 and counting

USA Covid Deaths per day since first death, in 5 day segments:

Day 01-05: 2.6/day
Day 06-10: 4.6/day
Day 11-15: 9.8/day
Day 16-20: 42.8/day
Day 21-25: 198.8/day
Today (Day 26): 223 and counting
Mike Green - Friday, March 27 2020 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#386694) #
Worldometers has cases and deaths over time both linear and logarithmic. It does peak, but is just getting started in India, Russia and the Southern Hemisphere. And there is a significant risk that it goes back round. The Chinese government has made a decision to loosen the restrictions in Beijing. This carries huge risks.

Michael - Friday, March 27 2020 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#386696) #
Yeah, especially since it isn't clear that people are truly cured or else that they stay safe once cleared based on reports like and If either things are opened too soon (due to false negative tests) or else if people once sick can be re-infected then very bad things might be coming.
scottt - Saturday, March 28 2020 @ 06:42 AM EDT (#386699) #
There are 3 possible outcomes.

The chance that every case is isolated has long gone.

Herd immunity and warmer weather ending the progression does not seem likely.

That means we just use social distancing until there's a vaccine.
That's projected to take 18-24 months.
They're just starting to test on mice and monkeys. In China.

It would be nice to have a quick test based on saliva.

Now for the curves, the virus has a long incubation period of about 2 weeks and take a similar amount of time to kill.
We're still seeing the outcome for people who got it before we shot everything down.

Mike Green - Saturday, March 28 2020 @ 07:47 AM EDT (#386701) #
Happily, the Chinese government appears to have reversed course quickly in regard at least to movie theatres.

I am hoping that this time is productively used for deep reflection. Baseball is, of course, the best game to accompany that reflection!
hypobole - Saturday, March 28 2020 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#386702) #
A National Post article reiterating and expanding on some of the points I made earlier about the wet markets, among other things. As uo pointed out, the PRC isn't the only country with wet markets, but as long as they exist virologists say it's not if, but when they start another pandemic.

There is a link to a February Lancet article where Chinese and an Australian researcher found the wet market was the probable cause.

It also brings up some other points, including, Trump calling the virus Chinese and a Chinese government spokesman claiming the US Army as the origin. Not mentioned is that the Chinese ambassador to the US stated that spokesman did not speak for the Chinese government, he does, and the spokesman's claims were "crazy".

However, it does mention the origin of that US Army conspiracy theory,,, run by University of Ottawa professor Michel Chossudovsky. Unlike Alex Jones who spouted his conspiracy crap for personal benefit, globalreasearch very much acts like a Russian troll site.

hypobole - Saturday, March 28 2020 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#386704) #
From CNN a few minutes ago:

"More than 2,000 people have died from the coronavirus in the United States as of 7:45 p.m. EST Saturday, according to a CNN count compiled through data on state health department websites.

There are 2,010 deaths reported as of Saturday. The US reached 1,000 deaths on Thursday."

So 2 days to double the death toll.
John Northey - Saturday, March 28 2020 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#386705) #
Hate to say it, but I called it - 2000 by Monday (I was a few hours too optimistic) 5000 by mid-week.  What a disaster down there.  Just hope things calm down up here and people stay apart by 6+ feet - easy way to think of it...if you can swing a baseball bat and hit someone they are too close.
John Northey - Saturday, March 28 2020 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#386706) #
Checking my numbers I'd predict Thursday for 5000 deaths in the USA.  Ugh.  Really hope I'm too pessimistic.  But that is assuming a 25% increase daily in deaths which they've been worse than in 7 of the last 8 days (23% one day).  Given the situation in NY (they are about to start deciding who to save and who not to bother with due to lack of supplies) I fear I'm optimistic.  10k by a week from Sunday (April 5th).   What is scary is Canada is growing fast in deaths too - 4 of the last 6 days were over 30% increases, of course that puts us well under 100 still.

For reference, under 3,000 died in 9/11.  12-61k die from the flu every year worldwide.  COVID 19 is now up to over 30,000 worldwide (just shy of 27k officially as of this morning, safe to say it is over 30k by now).  The big difference is many get the flu but few get super-sick from it and require hospitalization thus why it never causes this big an issue overall.

Be safe and stay home everyone.
John Northey - Sunday, March 29 2020 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#386711) #
For even scarier - if things don't improve significantly in the US and Italy, the US will pass Italy for total dead around April 11th with both nations closing in on 40k dead.  Or around the average crowd at a Yankee game last year. (highest attendance in the AL, St Louis & the Dodgers had more per game).
hypobole - Sunday, March 29 2020 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#386713) #
Dr. Fauci just said the models show between 100,00 and 200,000 US covid deaths eventually.
uglyone - Sunday, March 29 2020 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#386715) #
John Northey - Sunday, March 29 2020 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#386716) #
Scary stuff. So many who will die and so many who could've been saved with quicker action. Or with an eye to building up health care instead of a survival of the richest method.
hypobole - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#386719) #
Don't know how many here read the Conrad Black op-ed posted 2 weeks ago, but he did another one March 27..

Black is erudite, loves Trump (probably would even if Trump hadn't pardoned him) and hates Trudeau.
But he knows nothing of virology, though he still fancies himself an expert. Guessing his stocks are crashing and he's none too pleased. Still believed an eventual 100,000 US deaths was an exaggeration 3 days ago. And he praised the Dutch response the same day this Forbes article was posted.
85bluejay - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#386720) #
Life is too short to waste time reading anything convicted felony Conrad Black has to say.
uglyone - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#386721) #
It's amazing how much of the skepticism going around, even at the highest levels, is actually a result of people pretending they are experts when they have no idea what they're talking about:
Mike Green - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#386723) #
Epstein's skepticism is rooted in his libertarian ideology.  Pandemics pose a particular issue for small government ideologues (but not all people who advocate for smaller government).
hypobole - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#386724) #
The problem is less with experts that have no idea, but those with enough knowledge to sound convincing to a layperson, but not enough knowledge to fully grasp a situation.

Epstein may have studied the H1N1 models, but those didn't account for the asymtomatic nature of Covid which is one of the main driving factors in its spread.
scottt - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#386725) #
Epstein is a lawyer. He's good a writing justifications for things and pose it as fact or science but it's anything but.
This could have been an article about intelligent design.

It seems to me that the pro-life crowds are more worried about the economy than about the death toll.
It's too bad everything is so polarized in the US.

Mike Green - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#386726) #
Too much credit to Epstein, hypobole.  Anyone who believes on March 16 that the death toll in the US is likely to be under 500 and then afterwards updates it to 5000 is obviously not making a genuine thoughful effort to look at the disease, given American efforts to control the disease in the period from January-March. His lack of awareness of the importance of asymptomatic carriers, lack of testing in the US, and latency period of the disease make his opinions on this topic no more valuable than a random person on the street.

For a layperson, answers of 50,000, 500,000 and 5,000,000 are, and were, all possible answers within reasonable zones of contemplation.  Dr. Fauci's very qualified answer of 100,000 to 200,000 is a sincere effort by an expert, and may indeed come true. 
hypobole - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#386727) #
From the article uo posted:

"According to the Washington Post, “Conservatives close to Trump and numerous administration officials have been circulating an article by Richard A. Epstein of the Hoover Institution, titled ‘Coronavirus Perspective,’ which plays down the extent of the spread and the threat.”

Blame rather than credit is the word I would use. Whichever word you use though, he certainly seems to have influenced, maybe greatly influenced, White House decision-making early on.

Chuck - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#386728) #
[re Epstein]... make his opinions on this topic no more valuable than a random person on the street.

Even less so, in my opinion. As an idealogue, and one from the school of "I know a little ergo I know more than the so-called experts", what other conclusion was he going to draw? You could have written up his script before the outbreak even started.

uglyone - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#386729) #
skepticism is so easy.

because it's usually right, percentage wise.

until it's wrong.
hypobole - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#386730) #
"As an idealogue, and one from the school of "I know a little ergo I know more than the so-called experts""

Also an apt description of that Conrad Black piece I posted earlier.

Chuck - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#386731) #
Also an apt description of that Conrad Black piece I posted earlier.

Yes, were I able to edit my post I would have said exactly that. I'm sure there is a name for the cognitive bias that leads experts in one domain to believe that they therefore have expertise in other domains.

Michael - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#386732) #
According to it was likely in large part the New York Times video "People are dying" linked in my "Friday, March 27 2020 @ 01:55 AM EDT" post above in this thread that helped Trump get past that right wing analysis. Seeing a hospital in his neighborhood have the freezer truck for dead bodies and related medical coverage and issues helped the health experts points win the day and extend the shutdown to end of April (rather than the end by Easter talk).
Mike Green - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#386733) #
I'm sure there is a name for the cognitive bias that leads experts in one domain to believe that they therefore have expertise in other domains.

By way of background, there's a branch of the law of evidence which deals with expert evidence, and the word for expert in Latin is "peritus". 

My wonderful Evidence Law professor was well aware of this cognitive bias. He did his bit to counteract it by bringing into class a comical clay figure which he called Peritus while discussing the requirements for, and limitations of, expert evidence.  I don't think that Professor Epstein would have enjoyed the class somehow.  The technical term for what my professor did is "taking the piss out of".
scottt - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#386737) #
In the legal system, experts are banned from the jury pools.
A juror is supposed to pick between defense and prosecution experts based on personal bias.

Michael - Monday, March 30 2020 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#386738) #
In terms of numbers again comparing to 3.75 days ago when I posted:

Late Thursday the world cases went from 1. China 2. Italy 3. US to 1. US 2. Italy 3. China with all 3 just over 80,000 cases. Now it is 1. US; 2. Italy; 3. Spain; 4. China. Although there are reports in some media of around 40,000 extra deaths in China (in Wuhan) that might be suppressed reporting of COVID-19 cases, and testing still may be unequal in different jurisdictions, and reports out of Europe are that some countries may have only been reporting hospital deaths for COVID-19 and not all deaths at nursing homes or homes.

For numbers now, as of "3/30/2020, 2:30:18 PM" US went from 85,991 to 160,020. That should be pretty close to a doubling in 4 days (just under doubling in just under 4 days). For deaths US went from 1,296 deaths to 2,953 deaths. That is more than doubling in less than 4 days. The good news is for recovered that has gone from 753 to 5,595, about 7.5 times increase.

Comparing to Canada, the official cases have gone from 4,046 cases to 7,310. Again not quite doubling in not quite 4 days. For deaths things have gone from 38 deaths to 65 deaths, again just short of doubling in this time. Again the official recoveries are the good news and have gone from 184 to 466 a more than doubling in this time.

In terms of following the US, Canada had been originally about 11 days behind, but 3.75 days ago when I posted the numbers it was closer to 10 days behind, but today it is good news as it is back to about 12 days behind as the end of 18th of March US count was at 7,730, which is probably approximately close to where Canada may end up today (and certainly much closer than the 5,723 or 11,719 which are the previous/next days in the US count). Last time Canada was just barely ahead of California, but now it is more substantially ahead of California, as California has only 6,498 official cases (but still not wide spread testing, so true numbers may not be comparable).

Stay healthy all.
scottt - Tuesday, March 31 2020 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#386743) #
Canada is definitively not testing enough, especially in Ontario, so the actual number of cases is higher.
The number of death, though is probably fairly close.
We're not at a stage where it's moot to test the dead. On the contrary, we're hunting outbreaks.

85bluejay - Tuesday, March 31 2020 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#386746) #
I will say this about Mr. Epstein, he's following the lead of his hero - No apologies , no backtracking, he keeps doubling down in each new article. I bet the Hoover institution is very happy because pro/con he's getting a lot of clicks, collateral damage be damned.
uglyone - Tuesday, March 31 2020 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#386753) #
Well, there's nothing like a real crisis to finally expose the BS that flourishes when things are so good for so long.
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 31 2020 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#386756) #
Y'know, Boston is home to much of the USA's scientific community.  The Betts trade was made on February 10; at that point there were 12 reported cases in the US.  I wonder if the club had received some helpful advice on the probable course of the pandemic.
Chuck - Tuesday, March 31 2020 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#386757) #
I wonder if the club had received some helpful advice on the probable course of the pandemic.

Epidemiologists banging a garbage can?

John Northey - Tuesday, March 31 2020 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#386758) #
Mike- interesting theory, but unlikely.  Everyone knew they were likely to trade Betts and the trade wasn't a total salary dump.  If you assume Price and cash were to get rid of his contract, then it is Betts for Jeter Downs (minors), Connor Wong (minors) and Alex Verdugo.Verdugo is turning 24 and had a 114 OPS+ , 3.2 WAR year last year in 2/3rds of a season, viewed as the #35 to #19 prospect depending on source going into 2019.  Downs is a top 100 guy (#44 via who played briefly in AA at SS and has a lifetime 817 OPS in the minors.  Wong, at 23, had a good year reaching AA last year and is primarily a catcher, but is probably viewed more as an add on than a key part of the deal.  Now watch Wong become a star. 

I think Boston did OK in the deal in pure baseball terms, even before factoring in how short a year it will be now.  If the Dodgers (whenever baseball comes back) wins it all then it is worth it to them.  But Boston was in need of a rebuild and those 3 parts should be big helps over the next 5+ years, and they still could resign Betts this winter.
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 31 2020 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#386759) #
I was thinking of a more conventional report.  This article was published on February 7 gave some important new information.  In January, WHO had given a less foreboding description of the virus (moderately infectious, moderate mortality levels). 

The Red Sox were first off the mark when it came to neuromuscular testing (which actually played a role in them drafting Betts in the first place), so it wouldn't surprise me if they did their due diligence on COVID-19 better than other clubs. 

bpoz - Tuesday, March 31 2020 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#386760) #
Boston also had Bill James working for them I believe. So they were advancing in the science of the game.
hypobole - Tuesday, March 31 2020 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#386768) #
Remember people floating the crazy idea that young, uninjured pitchers should get TJ in the minors, so it will be "out of the way" by the time they reach the majors?

This one is even crazier, courtesy of Red Bull Racing's Helmut Marko.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#386772) #
about Mr. Epstein, he's following the lead of his hero - No apologies , no backtracking, he keeps doubling down

Sometimes his hero employs a different tack, however, as he is now. What you do is pretend that everyone else held the position that you are on the record for having held and that you are the one who actually stood strong against that position. You know, Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.

Many people were saying ride out the curve. Ride it like a cowboy. Do nothing. But 2 million people would have died. I chose to go with interventions and now only 100,000 people will die. It's a lot, but much less than 2 million. We acted fast. And I intend to repeat this new messaging every single night.

scottt - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#386774) #
Crazier than doing surgery on healthy people?

Red Bull racing is Aston Martin.
I find it crazy to have a drink maker instead of a car maker as a  team name.

Mercedes, McLaren, Alfa Romeo, Ferrari, Renault.
Red Bull.

Acutally, they have 2 teams, the other one is named AlphaTauri, a rebranding of "Torro Rosso".

85bluejay - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#386775) #
These articles/commentaries in the media of what would be acceptable collateral damage in order to restart the economy early reminds me of similar discussions in the 80's of what was acceptable collateral damage in order to "win" the nuclear war with the Soviet Union (which it's proponents believed was inevitable).
hypobole - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#386777) #
85bluejay Yeah, it reminded me also of America getting "it's hair mussed".

Also, does the "history books" quote remind you of anyone? "
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#386779) #
I remember the winnable nuclear war stuff very well, 85bluejay.  I was one of 200,000 (or so the estimates were at the time) Torontonians who marched against it in 1984.  I met my spouse there, so something good came out of that madness.
scottt - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#386780) #
In 1984 I was in military college. We didn't get a lot of news.

What was the marches about specifically?

hypobole - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#386782) #
So despite the WHO and North American health officials stating, some emphatically, "masks don't work - don't wear them", it seems they are either incompetent or lying.

I understand why they would lie, supplies were/are limited and doctors/nurses etc needed them more than the general public. But still.
85bluejay - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#386783) #
Mike Green, that's a cool story, meeting your spouse at a protest march - I think you should regale us with it some time (if you're so inclined)
scottt - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#386784) #
It's complicated.

Just saying masks work for health staff and nobody else does not sound right.

Still, are masks useful if nobody is coughing near you?
Maybe not.

And are masks alone sufficient to protect you if you're being exposed?
Probably not.

There were complaints about not closing the borders soon enough, but it was not really possible to close all borders until the entire world went pandemic crazy. The US and Italy closed borders with China early and that didn't not help much.

There were also complaints about not enough screenings at the airports. Well, you can't test people before they board the plane, that takes time, at most you can take their temperature. And once you land, you have the same problem. You cannot really identify the infected. So you just put everybody on quarantine. Or a half quarantine in this case.

So right now the strategy is to stay isolated. People with symptoms are not supposed to be out on the streets.
People without symptoms are not supposed to be on the street without reasons either.
So the masks are probably moot.

We'll see how that works out in a couple of weeks.

There's a shortage of effective masks. That's a drag.
There's a shortage of tests. I think that's a bigger drag.

scottt - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#386785) #
Also, I find it hart to imagine that whatever masks are being sold to the public are taken off from the supply chain of hospitals. That sounds crazy.

Imagine in WW2 if the US government had to ask people to stop buying bullets because there wasn't enough for the soldiers. Today, bullet sales would just go up through the roof.

I read an article about the US trying to develop cheap ventilators. Google project Aura.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#386786) #
I eat food. I need groceries.
I also need my medications. They are at the drug store.

I have no way of knowing beforehand if someone near me is going to cough or sneeze. Are you sure 6 ft away is enough? I'm not and I wish to take as few chances as possible.

I have an old N95 mask. It's not going to be 100% effective, but the safety features in my car aren't 100% effective either in preventing all injury or death. It's still better to have some protection than no protection.

I've already been isolated for 14 days but I can't stay home forever. I've ordered food online, but it's been hit or miss whether I actually get what I've ordered. Some items have been substituted, others not available.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#386787) #
Go out but wear gloves.

A couple interesting homemade mask alternatives that dont require any actual sewing or manufacture and are reusable:



scottt - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#386788) #
The thing is, the masks are mostly to protect other people from the wearers.

Pharmacies and grocery stores have special hours for vulnerable people.
Ideally, that's when the store just opens.

I avoid crowded places like Costco and I don't shop when there are lineups.

My main worry is kids and grandkids visiting.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#386789) #
The marches in 1984 were about Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) also known as Star Wars. The concept behind them was that the US could start a "winnable" nuclear war knowing that it could shoot down incoming Russian missiles. They called it a "Nuclear Utilization Strategy".

Lots more stories from that time but they would go better with a beer as part of a social gathering. Maybe after a ballgame!

uglyone - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#386790) #
Cant believe you marched against Star Wars.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#386793) #
"The thing is, the masks are MOSTLY to protect other people from the wearers."

Explain why it wouldn't help prevent a healthy person from contracting covid.

And yes, uo is right, gloves as well. Parking lots apparently are becoming littered with them.

My son and I are going to drive to the store. Taking an empty Folgers container. I shop, he waits. Once I'm back to the car, he pops the trunk, I load the groceries. I remove my mask without touching my face and place it in the container, then carefully remove gloves and place those in as well, all before touching the car door. Will open the Folgers lid after I get home to allow the items to air dry for a week. Will get a fresh pair of gloves to deal with the groceries, leaving non-perishables in my shed for at least 3 days, and wipe down anything I bring in the house.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#386794) #
Cant believe you marched against Star Wars.

I marched in 1977, dumbfounded by the popularity of a cheesy, cheaply made movie.

scottt - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#386795) #
Andrew Scheer's platform included joining the US missile defense program.

I don't think we'd be able to afford that once the pandemic is over.

grjas - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#386796) #
Western countries have had their head in the sand re mask use. And the WHO and CDC aren’t helping. The Asians have been using masks for months recognizing that many COVID carriers are asymptomatic. So if the mask is primarily intended to prevent the infected from spraying the uninfected with droplets, and we don’t know who the infected are, then guess what? Everyone should be masked. It’s not rocket science.

And governments have known for a long time that many infected are asymptomatic. For example, on the Diamond Princess, half the positives had no symptoms.

Yes part of the reason for the confusing messaging on masks was to protect the supply for health care workers which certainly is critical, but they could be pushing two separate streams of manufacturing.

To get employees back to work safely we should be aggressively pushing every known potential manufacturer to start pumping out masks like crazy and mandating their use. Like many Asian countries. Cloth masks can Be made for the population and N95’s for the health care professionals.

Let’s get going!!!
85bluejay - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#386797) #
John Northey, it seems your prediction of the U.S death toll reaching 5,000 by Thursday was a bit optimistic as I see they have passed that number today - I wonder what Mr. Epstein has to say about that.
scottt - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#386798) #
The masks are mostly made in China.
The factories that make them were shut down for most of this year.

It's no surprise that there's a shortage of surgical masks.

Personally, I'd rather not wear one.
I'm not even shaving these days.

For people who works in retirement homes, for example, it's a terrible environment to wear something on your face for an entire day. kitchens are full of steam and grease. It's kinda like having your face in a petri dish all day.

Most of the staff in retirement homes are hourly employees.
It's heavily unionized. There's lots of bumping. They use part-time employees to round the schedules.
Consequently, many of them works in more than one home.
That's heavily discouraged right now, but nothing is making out the lost income for these people.
Might as well call in sick and get full hours. Or take the the EI money.
So the one left have to do overtime. Not good for the immune system.

hypobole - Wednesday, April 01 2020 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#386799) #
This may be worse than anyone thought:

"But until there’s a vaccine or effective treatment, it may be necessary to keep suppression measures in place to prevent new cases from sparking another wave of infections. Kissler, for instance, led a study posted March 24 at the preprint server, that found a one-time application of social distancing measures in the United States for four weeks up to 20 weeks may not be enough to slow the virus’ spread. So some form of social distancing strategies might be intermittently necessary into 2022, coupled with lots of diagnostic tests."
John Northey - Thursday, April 02 2020 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#386800) #
It is scary in the US (and everywhere, but especially there) as they still won't put a full-nationwide plan in place with a handful of states refusing to put any restrictions in place as 'they are safe' or some other stupidity. 

  • Alabama - someone pushing 'fist bumps instead of handshakes' - like that will make any difference.
  • Backlog of 160,000 tests at just one testing facility
  • Florida finally putting a 'stay at home' order in place.
  • Florida where the governor is a supporter of Trump's, plus it is a swing state - has gotten 100% of its requests for aid while others get a small fraction of what they need.
  • 12 states still don't have 'stay at home' orders.  So I'd strongly advise being worried about anyone you know in Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming - some have limited restrictions in place.
The US is in deep dog doo imo. 

As to pace - my being nice estimate has the US hitting 10k dead by Tuesday. (15% increase daily, that was the lowest since early March (15% increase in deaths on March 29th).    If you go with 28% (the average since March 13th) you get to 10k on Sunday, 100k on Wednesday April 15th.  Scary stuff.  The 1 million mark for total dead is looking a lot more likely to me than 100k to 250k.  If they stay at 15% then April 15th would "only" see 27k dead.

Sadly we are up to 109 dead here in Canada now (equivalent to 1090 in US terms) and the curve is ugly in Ontario right now (steep going straight up almost).  Hopefully things stabilize soon.  Too many are being foolish out there. 
uglyone - Thursday, April 02 2020 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#386801) #

These 12 governors who haven’t issued formal “shelter-in-place” orders must have *something* in common... I just can’t quite put my finger on it.


Alabama - Ivey (R)
Arkansas - Hutchinson (R)
Iowa -- Reynolds (R)
Missouri -- Parson (R)
Nebraska -- Ricketts (R)
North Dakota -- Burgum (R)
Oklahoma -- Stitt (R)
South Carolina -- McMaster (R)
South Dakota -- Noem (R)
Texas -- Abbott (R)
Utah -- Herbert (R)
Wyoming -- Gordon (R)
uglyone - Thursday, April 02 2020 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#386802) #

Who might we turn to so as to make sense of the underlying epidemiology regarding the pandemic? How about professional climate deniers who know absolutely nothing of the matter. But they *do* know how to misrepresent mainstream science and peddle nonsense.
hypobole - Thursday, April 02 2020 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#386803) #
Don't have a Wall Street Journal subscription. Can't read the linked story.
Chuck - Thursday, April 02 2020 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#386804) #
Who might we turn to so as to make sense of the underlying epidemiology regarding the pandemic?

Peiser and Montford are both considered skeptics but this is not the proper use of the word (everyone should be a skeptic). These two are deniers.

What motivates people to claim expertise outside their own domain, the backstory of most deniers? Self-interest? Defense of a belief system that is under attack? The delusion of simply being smarter than everyone else? The paranoia of conspiracies?

scottt - Thursday, April 02 2020 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#386805) #
Testing is a huge part of the equation.
If you bring the number of new cases to a handful, you just need to test massively around them.
So, if testing capability ramps up, the situation improves quite a bit.
That's basically what's going in China right now.
It's not possible to re-open the border like that though and I don't see crowds in stadiums either.

scottt - Thursday, April 02 2020 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#386806) #
Sadly we are up to 109 dead here in Canada now (equivalent to 1090 in US terms) and the curve is ugly in Ontario right now (steep going straight up almost).  Hopefully things stabilize soon.  Too many are being foolish out there.

A lot of the deads are folks in nursing/retirement homes.
The people who works there are not nurses--although they have some--and doctors.
They earn modest salaries and many of them are on the down side of 50.

Also, 10% of the infected in Canada are health care workers.
Another sign that masks don't protect completely.

As for the US 39 states now have stay at home orders, but 12 of those have religious exemptions.
Even Saudi Arabia closed that hole right away.
John Northey - Thursday, April 02 2020 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#386812) #
That insane religious exemption is what will make the US end results uglier than they need to be...mixed with the anti-science attitude of the Republican party which runs many southern states and the presidency.  I'm thankful Ford, while not someone I support in about 90% of the things he does, is accepting of the science from early on and has put stay at home orders in quickly and went down to 5 for gatherings far quicker than I ever expected.  Those reports he has seen must be very ugly - we get to see them Friday.  Can't help but be thankful in a way for how Ontario splits federal/provincial parties all the time thus a right wing one here in Ontario with the Liberals in power federally - thus we get less of the stupidity south of the border where people are saying it is a 'Democratic hoax' at times.  Scary how some let their politics control their safety.  I'm a former Green Party candidate and I'm perfectly happy to say that Ford & Trudeau both have done a decent job during this crisis.  Did they both make errors?  Oh yeah.  But overall, especially compared to the show down south, they have looked solid.  I just hope that what Ford was saying today (about having more medical equipment made in Ontario long term) stays in place post-COVID.  Generally I'm in favor of free trade and the like, but this has shown how certain things you need produced locally so you can quickly ramp it up and redundancy is not a bad thing with health care.
uglyone - Thursday, April 02 2020 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#386813) #
Ford and even Kenney have done themselves proud through this for sure.

Scheer is still his pathetic self, though.
Michael - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 01:27 AM EDT (#386814) #
So 3.25 days ago I posted the counts, and has already been pointed out John Northey's prediction from last week of 5000 by Thursday was too optimistic as it hit on Wednesday, and if I look now ("4/2/2020, 9:12:43 PM") we are over 6k for US deaths.

3.25 days ago in the US it was 160,020 cases; 2,953 deaths; 5,595 recovers. Now it is 245,213 cases; 6,053 deaths; 9,148 recovers. So confirmed cases are up about 50% in 3.25 days, deaths more than doubled, recoveries close to double.

3.25 days ago in Canada it was 7,310 cases; 65 deaths; 466 recovers. Now it is 11,284 cases; 139 deaths; 1,971 recovers. So that is also about 50% increase in confirmed cases, more than doubling the deaths, and about 4x the recoveries. In terms of following the US number this is only about 1 days worth of US movement in 3.25 days so now Canada is around where the US was on 3/18 so 16 days back.

World wide the number of confirmed cases has passed 1 million (1,016,128) and the number of deaths has passed 50,000 (53,146).

The early thread speculation of 0.5% CFR due to South Korea really doesn't seem that likely given the deaths/confirmed world wide is above 5%. Yes there may well be many cases that haven't been confirmed, but not all of the currently confirmed cases that are alive will stay that way.

My county (one of the first hit in the US) has now crossed 1000 confirmed cases (and they aren't testing everyone) with 1,019 cases. We have 36 dead so far. One thing that is pretty good from an analytics point of view is we have 3 different dashboards at to track separately the cases (new/old, deaths, age demographics, etc.), hospitalization (beds, ICU beds, ventilators, surge capacity in use/not by COVID-19 and non-COVID-19), and testing (how many tests, what is the backlog, and what number/percent are positive/negative). The analytics data is useful to know that while we were hit early, so far the local health care capabilities are up for the job.

Stay safe everyone.
scottt - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#386815) #
The other thing about the US is that they have a huge military.
It's now apparent that they are suppressing information from the military to hide the loss of combat readiness.
How many ventilators do they have on an aircraft carrier?  There is no isolation on ships.

85bluejay - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#386817) #
I see Trump is demanding that 3M stop shipping mask/ventilators to Canada - I hope this makes all of his supporters in Canada happy!
85bluejay - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#386818) #
Sorry, I should have said, "with friends like this,who needs enemies."
scottt - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#386819) #
The  bit news in the US this week was a new test that takes 15 minutes.
Except they have only enough for 5000 tests, so they are sending exactly 100 tests to each state.

uglyone - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#386820) #


New: In Sept. 2018, the Trump administration received designs commissioned by the government in 2015 for a new high-speed machine to churn out 1.5 million N95 masks per day in a pandemic.

Then nothing happened.
scottt - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#386821) #
What's happening now is judges nominated by Trump are blocking those types of investigations.

The courts are mostly canceled, yet Trump is still nominating more judges.

hypobole - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#386824) #
Ain't letting this one go.
Chuck - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#386825) #
Ain't letting this one go.

I like that Fauci recognizes that he has a window where he has lots of credibility and a willing audience, and that he can speak his mind on a number of topics. In my dreams, he walks up to Trump on the podium and tells him to STFU. I guess I'll settle for what we actually get from him.

uglyone - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#386826) #
It's fine to blame wet markets. But realize that all you're doing is making some kind of argument that we need to somehow come up with international enforceable sanitization laws. That doesn't sound too simple.

And ebola mers and h1n1 didnt come from wet markets. Covid might not even have come from a wet market, based on recent reports.
vw_fan17 - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#386827) #
Nice link, Michael. Wish Alameda county had one that detailed..
hypobole - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#386828) #
Recent reports said yes it did, in all probability.

Ebola was also bat related, again in all probability. MERS was through dromedaries that had been infected by bats at some point.
hypobole - Friday, April 03 2020 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#386829) #
And I get that not all of these markets can be shut down. In many poor African countries, people need to hunt wildlife for food. But the Peoples Republic of China is not a third world country. And because of their prosperity, once an epidemic starts there, it's easy for it to crisscross the globe.
John Northey - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#386830) #
On March 25th I started digging into death totals.

USA: was at 500 then, just over 7000 now.  Average of 26% increase per day, lowest is 15%.  Using a 15% increase daily (18% the last 2 days so I am being optimistic) 10k will be hit on April 7th baring a major surprise.  20k on April 12th (Easter, when Trump said this would be over), 30k on April 15th, my rough estimate of when the US will have more dead from this disease than any other nation.  As always I hope I'm wrong.  Remember, I'm not using anything terribly complex here, just a simple 15% growth rate, the lowest daily rate the US has shown at any point in the last 2 weeks.  The US was 2 days from 500 to 1k (Italy speed), 3 more to get to 2k (faster than Italy), 4 more days to get to 5000 (Italy pace).  Not good.  When Italy passed 7k they slowed down to under 10% a day (12% highest increase since then).  It'd be nice if the US slowed but given the idiots in charge in many states I expect a big jump to hit again as Florida and other states start moving on this.

Canada needs to watch it.  We are at 138 and per Ontario's report today we are looking at 3,000 to 15,000 dead from this just in Ontario (spread over potentially 2 years) but if we ignored it we'd be looking at 100,000.  Too many parts of the US are still thinking they can avoid that worst case without doing anything.  And now the conspiracy people are going nuts in the states (and here - had one show up on my Facebook feed).   I was very glad to see Brampton charge a house party for ignoring the rules - hope they hit them hard.  This disease is only going to be beaten by everyone working together, and with tons of testing.  Be safe everyone.
85bluejay - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#386831) #
I am following the results of Sweden's approach very closely.
scottt - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 06:38 AM EDT (#386832) #
You cannot control sanitary laws in other countries.
At best,  you can have a pandemic task force, like Obama did and like Trump disbanded.

grjas - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#386833) #
Even the idiot Trump has at least partially figured this out. This virus will not die back enough in a one or two month period. If we are to get people back to work we have to mandate masks. Come on government. You dithered for months like every other western country (except Iceland). Time to wake the hell up.
uglyone - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#386834) #
Good to follow Sweden's progress (though so far it's not looking good), but keep in mind their natural water barrier from most of europe. Might be best to compare them to Norway and Finland.

The most interesting anomaly so far seems to be Germany. Landlocked right in the middle of europe, touching some of the hardest hit countries - they are showing high infected rates but very low death rates....but very high recovery rates too. This likely speaks to their highly organized response - consistent messaging, tons of testing, plenty of hospital beds, and citizens who listen to their governments simple guidance.
uglyone - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#386835) #
Hyperbole - it's not even about "shutting these markets down". People need food markets. All you are actually talking about is sanitary standards. Separation of live animals from butchered meat, sanitary standards implemented at every stage of the food process, etc. And once you start trying to implement those internationally there are a whole lotta countries to worry about (and china is not the source of all these recent viruses).

hypobole - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#386837) #

Doubt this works, but there should be consequences for Fox News' irresponsibility that cost lives and helped the spread.
hypobole - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#386838) #
China is not a third world country and there is no reason to have those markets there.

Yes, an epidemic can start in some place like Burkina Faso for instance, but it would not have the quick and massive spread that covid 19 has had.

And I really wonder why there is so much well deserved finger pointing at Trump, yet there are so many PRC apologists.
uglyone - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#386839) #

Breaking news - nobody trusts china. Nobody thinks they tell the truth about their economic numbers, about their education camps, about 5g tech, or about covid.

bpoz - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#386840) #
Agree that China is not telling the truth.
hypobole - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#386841) #
Tbh, all governments are bad at telling the truth, it's just a matter of degrees.
scottt - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#386842) #
China is a communist country.
You don't see me going there for my vacations.

They venerate their leaders. The cult of personality.
They will be plenty of time to point out failings later.
Not now when we depend on them for vital supplies.

John Northey - Saturday, April 04 2020 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#386843) #
Sweden is interesting so I've added them to my daily check.  Figures are from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control unless mentioned otherwise - their figures are a day behind but generally viewed as the most accurate (and easy to work with) from what I can tell.
  • USA: 8,381 so far (estimated for today via CNN - tends to be a bit low each day by about 10-20, never far off).  Still on pace to be #1 for deaths on April 15th but very close to taking over on the 14th now depending on assumptions.
  • Spain & Italy, generally seen as the worst, have drastically reduced their daily death rate to sub 10% a day (US is still over 15% a day). 
  • Canada sadly is speeding up.  Now at 233 (estimated).  We hit 100 on April 2nd, 200 on April 5th report (reports are a day behind) equaling the US pace from100 to 200 (they hit 260 when we hit 233 so we are a tiny bit better but not much).  A scary thing.  For deaths we were much better before, but now things are speeding up - 23 days from 1st to 100th, 3 from 100 to 200 - the US was 15 days to 100 from 1.  Not a pace we want to keep following.  No wonder Ford is going nuts as Toronto could easily be New York if people aren't careful.
  • Iran & China I pretty much ignore as I don't buy eithers numbers (or Russia's for that matter)
  • France is at 6,507 before today, UK 3,605.  Frances numbers jumped drastically as it seems they are catching up in reporting.  They both are on US type paces right now - a bit slower but too close for comfort.
  • Sweden hit 100 on March 29th, 17 days from the first death, 200 took 4 more days, now over 300 (3 more days) so going slower than we are now after a near US pace to start.  Remember, they are about 1/3rd of our population.
Interesting figures.  Scary ones, but good to see what is going on so we have some perspective.  Ford said Ontario should see 3,000 to 15,000 dead by the end of this in over a year - ick, but not as bad as it could've been (100k with no changes to lifestyle).  I hope he follows through on making sure we have PPE's made here in Ontario from now on so we have an oversupply of them and sell them to other provinces in the future - then we are safe from the US's moods.
Chuck - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#386844) #
Sweden is interesting so I've added them to my daily check.

I have not followed the rationale for why Sweden has chosen the path they are on, but it sure seems to run contrary to community-focused Scandinavian values where a social safety net is paramount.

This wild west, libertarian "let it ride" mentality seems more apropos for a place like Alaska.

Mike Green - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#386845) #
I have not followed the rationale, but the leader of the Swedish government seems to be in a vulnerable position because of a very split decision in the last election.

The other one to follow on the positive side is New Zealand. Their leader has brains and guts. When things get bleak, I turn my attention to them.
85bluejay - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#386846) #
The different strategies employed by countries will inevitably lead to many MMQB commentaries/opinions depending on the outcomes - Heroes and Villains will be determined post pandemic except for Teflon Don who can spin anything into his heroic effort.
hypobole - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#386847) #
One of the gold standards for Covid response has been China. Not the Peoples Republic of China, but the Republic of China which we are not allowed to call the Republic of China. That would be "Chinese Taipei" per the PRC or "Taiwan" as the PRC allows us to call the them.
hypobole - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#386848) #
"Teflon Don who can spin anything into his heroic effort."

The reason he is actually able to get away with his bs is because of his "Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda", or as we know it, Fox News.
Chuck - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#386849) #
Trump, over the last week, has segued into the next narrative, one he will repeat every night. "Yes, many are dying. But it could have been so much worse (2M) if I hadn't acted. And many were telling me, let it ride."
Mike Green - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#386850) #
Early days yet. We'll see how Trump's popularity goes when COVID 19 really hits Red States and swing states like Ohio. It mostly has been a NY and NJ thing so far.
85bluejay - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#386851) #
You may be right Mike Green, but as hypobole has so succinctly pointed out, with his "Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda" behind him I think he can overcome anything (even shooting someone in the middle of Fifth avenue.)
scottt - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#386852) #
The virus is more deadly to older people, who are more likely to vote Republican.
However, it's worst in cities which are more Democrat than in rural areas which are more Republican.

It's so hard to call politics in other countries.

Chuck - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#386853) #
Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda

Serious question: How many Fox News viewers aren't already going to vote for Trump?

uglyone - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#386854) #
Fox news isn't even state-run media.

This admin is media-run state.

Fox created Trump, and created his supporters.
Nigel - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#386855) #
Sorry uo I can’t agree with that comment. Neither Fox nor Trump created the voting bloc that supports Trump. That’s the thing that many people in other parts of the world least understand about current America. Trump is merely the embodiment of what has always been the political and world view of a relatively significant portion of the US population. Spend a few days in Birmingham, Dallas, or eastern Washington and it’s literally all around you.
uglyone - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#386856) #
I don't disagree that there is a bloc with certain features that has existed for a long time.

But their evolution into a literal anti-democracy, anti-facts, anti-science, anti-media party - i.e. their "radicalization" - is a more recent phenomenon which has developed over the last couple of generations, and has been perfected and completed by Fox and the right wing media ecosystem that has developed around it over the past 25yrs or so.

If Fox had existed then, Nixon would never have resigned.
electric carrot - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#386857) #
Nigel, your idea that ideas are inherent and not connected to people's communication systems seems uncharacteristically simple for someone who normally posts so thoughtful and complex posts. Culture does not live outside communications systems, and the idea that this is the way it has "always been" seems very naive to me. Culture, like a virus, needs a friendly environment to incubate itself. Fox News is at the center of helping to create this and has been for nearly 25 years. My opinion definitely is more in line with uglyone on this point.
grjas - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#386858) #
The other one to follow on the positive side is New Zealand. Their leader has brains and guts.

She is brilliant. The Aussies want to steal her. She is the brightest light in the Western world. Which I guess isn’t saying much given the dreadful group of leaders in North America and Europe.

Small wonder we lost control of this virus. They’re trying to rope the horses as they run out of the barn Instead of keeping the damn door shut.

Meanwhile, the official name for Fox News is Pravda.
bpoz - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#386859) #
I really admire how well ALL of the Bauxites are contributing to this very complicated situation.

Regarding the politics and untruths I side with Chicken Little!! The sky is falling!!
John Northey - Sunday, April 05 2020 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#386860) #
Latest is the US finally appears to have had fewer deaths than projected for the first time.  I've been basing my projections on 15% a day increases which they have outdone nearly every day but one (dead on 15%).  Today looks to be 13% dependong on final figures.  9634 via John Hopkins University (figures are always based on midnight GST, not Eastern time).  Tomorrow the US will crack 10k dead, and I project over 11k by the end of the day.  If we take the lower % from today and the same for the other big countries (Italy and Spain - their latest rate which is far lower than the US) we see the US becoming #1 in death on April 11th (Saturday).  Before I had a higher rate for all 3 nations, but all 3 have significantly improved.  That is also the day the US should crack 20k dead. 

For historical context, 675,000 (roughly) died from the Spanish Flu in 1918 in the USA - so ignore Trump's 'this is the worst ever' crap.  Worldwide there were 17 to 50 million dead from it (some nations had poor reporting).  55,000 in Canada roughly.  So COVID-19 will be nowhere near as deadly especially if you factor in the drastic rise in population in both nations since then (Canada was only 7.2 million in 1918, 37.7 million now; US in 1918 was 103.2 million vs 331 million now).
Nigel - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 01:33 AM EDT (#386861) #
Electric carrot - I agree with every word of your post. Very well put. I also agree that Fox and Trump are responsible for some of the very specific ideas that are now manifest in that subset of the population. My point was meant to be simple. The voting bloc that is inherently fearful and angry (with the resultant “anti” views that uo describes) has always been there and has always been essentially isolationist, xenophobic and anti education). The US is in no way unique in this regard.
scottt - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#386862) #
If you leave a bunch of anonymous commenters unsupervised in an internet forum, you quickly get overrun by a lot of xenophobic, sexist and racist tropes.

Fox news manages to capture that crowd and thrill them with falsities.

bpoz - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#386863) #
Thanks John N. 1918 population was 2 billion. The Spanish flu infected the young, 20 year olds, rather than older people.

Please correct any errors I have made.

Medicine has advanced in 100 years.

Factory farming (increased animal abusive conditions) and spreading to more remote areas of the jungle to hunt/obtain bush meat have disturbed and activated many viruses.

I am guessing that global warming and mining everything is also a danger. Increase in garbage dumps.

A massive increase in air traffic is a very big contributor.

Looks like the modern lifestyle is a big negative factor. Nature is fighting back.

Chuck - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#386866) #
Nate Silver has written an interesting piece on the issues with case counts.
hypobole - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#386867) #
Youtubers post crazy conspiracy theories linking 5G to Covid-19. Cell phone towers get destroyed. Youtubers make money.
hypobole - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#386868) #
CNN's latest take on the Fox-Trump loop we discussed yesterday.
John Northey - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#386871) #
US over 10,000 dead now, Boris Johnson in intensive care with COVID, Al Kaline died today (not from COVID as far as I know).
hypobole - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#386873) #
Just wondering what everyone here is doing to stay safe.
Mike Green - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#386874) #
A virtual Seder. After the Red Sea parted, Moses led the Israelites to the Promised Land. They crossed in single file 2 meters apart. 

Music has been very important in keeping sane. Desmond Dekker's The Israelites and Springsteen's The Promised Land are naturals for this time.

I am missing the gym but a bench and some dumbbells and running the stairs has been an adequate replacement (thank you neighbours for indulging me). It's hard to run outside and keep distance in my neighborhood.

scottt - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#386875) #
To stay safe? Just staying home. I'm doing terrible for exercising though.
I filled up for 13 bucks 2 weeks ago and I might be able to drive on that for a season or 2..

Never heard of Al Kaline. He retired in 74.

There's talks of possibly playing the whole season in Arizona.
No crowds. 3 games a day in each stadium.
I'd watch it.

bpoz - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#386876) #
Hypobole, I try to be responsible to the community and not infect anyone.

I am disappointed that members of my family ( 1 child) are headstrong. The type that think they are correct. I love and care about my family. Slow to learn.

My family strategy is to attack the virus head to head. One on one. Since we are lucky to be strong I believe so far that we are killing the virus.

I wish all of you to be safe. You are intelligent!! We are headstrong. Only I go outside.

For what it is worth. CHEERS!!!
Mike Green - Monday, April 06 2020 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#386877) #
Al Kaline. Smooth unassuming rightfielder who did everything  very well. Winfield and Clemente had a similar variety of skills, but drew more attention to themselves both by dint of personality and more distinctive approaches on the field.

By the time that I first saw him a lot in 68, he was probably not quite the force that he had been earlier. There aren't too many players who are great st age 20. Kaline was one of them.

mathesond - Tuesday, April 07 2020 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#386880) #
Al Kaline must have been good. They named a battery type after him!
hypobole - Tuesday, April 07 2020 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#386881) #
Which is truly impressive considering Kaline was never part of any Tigers battery.
Chuck - Tuesday, April 07 2020 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#386882) #
How do I social distance from these jokes?
scottt - Tuesday, April 07 2020 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#386887) #
Just back from the grocery store .
 About half the customers had masks, but none of the employees had any.
There were arrows on the floor turning the aisles into one-ways, but most of the masked customers were walking against the arrows.
It seems to confirm my theory, but maybe I'm wrong and the masks are turning reasonable people into outlaws.

hypobole - Tuesday, April 07 2020 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#386890) #
Funny, the local Brampton Sobey's had arrows when I went there last week. Didn't see anyone not following the arrows, masked or unmasked.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 07 2020 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#386893) #
Just back from the weekly shopping - had to go past 2 stores to find one that wasn't packed (IE: long lines outside to get in).  Arrows on the ground that about a half dozen people seemed to just ignore - kept running into them, would look at the floor then at them then the floor and no recognition in their eyes.  Sigh.  Was very tempted to say something but figured idiots gonna idiot.  Got my stuff and left.  So nice when I didn't have the idiots nearby - I think the one way aisles should be a permanent thing.

Couldn't resist buying a lottery ticket - $70 mil with 20 bonus draws tonight so why not I figured, its like buying 21 tickets for a $1 mil draw with one of them being massive.  Fun to dream of something good happening after going nuts with 2 kids in the house who alternate being happy and wanting to kill each other.

Very few using masks still.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 07 2020 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#386895) #
  • US now at 12,846, continuing to do poorly vs the world.  2 days of better than my projection and now back to worse (17% vs 15%).  On pace to have more dead than any other nation by April 12th (Easter this Sunday). 
    US on pace to crack 40k April 17th, 100k on April 25th.  I hear them saying they won't get to 100k and I say 'bs' to that.  Especially with stupidity like forcing an election in Wisconsin today with just 5 voting stations in all of Milwaukee (population around that of Mississauga).  Takes a special kind of stupid to force that.
  • Italy staying under 5% increases in death each day now.  Hasn't been at 10% since last month.
  • Spain has 4 days in a row sub 10%, so they might have turned the corner too.
  • Canada, 5 days after cracking 100 has cracked 300.  1 day slower than the US was for that growth.
  • UK has slowed 3 days in a row from 23% down to 9%
  • Sweden is bouncing around a bit down to 8% back up to 19%, they are doing things uniquely so who knows what to expect.
  • France had a massive one day jump a few days ago, then back sub 20% every day since.

scottt - Wednesday, April 08 2020 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#386896) #
US deaths are hitting the African-Americans incredibly hard.

Testing rates are a huge variable in the curve's equation.
Ontario is doing very poorly on testing.
Apparently they have had the capacity for several days now, but haven't updated directives.

hypobole - Wednesday, April 08 2020 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#386899) #
Far right in US, Limbaugh, Hume etc, saying the death toll is inflated. How long before Trump follows suit? You know he's itching to find any excuse to start the economy up again.
Michael - Wednesday, April 08 2020 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#386902) #
Of course in reality it is the opposite of what the right wing commentators are claiming (no surprise). From New York: Only people who die at home who are known to have a *positive coronavirus test* have the disease listed as the official cause on their death certificate. We know there are many others going uncounted.

I.e., if you couldn't get a test because you weren't admitted to hospital, even if you were exposed to people or are suspected of having the symptoms, and you then die at home (the onset of bad symptoms can be fast and emergency responses have been overwhelmed with people talking about waiting many hours for EMT) you don't count as a COVID-19 death today in New York (and many other places are similar).

For a numbers update the rate of growth is possibly slowing as some places are possibly nearing a peak (the end of the beginning, probably. Certainly not near the end). I posted numbers on Thursday of last week, 5.5 days ago, but now as of "4/8/2020, 8:50:32 AM" the updates are:

5.5 days ago the US was 245,213 cases; 6,053 deaths; 9,148 recovers. Now it is 401,166 cases; 13,007 deaths; 22,717 recovers. So in the 5.5 days cases increased by 64%, deaths by 115%, recoveries by 148%. That's roughly the same rate of growth for those as had happened in 3.25 days at the last update.

5.5 days ago Canada was 11,284 cases; 139 deaths; 1,971 recovers. Now it is 17,897 cases; 381 deaths; 4,047 recovers. 59% increase in cases, 175% in deaths; 105% in recovers. That is a bit more change than the last update, particularly in deaths, but the last update was for 3.25 days and this is 5.5 so again the rate of increase has slowed a bit in cases, and probably even in deaths, given the longer time period.

So the numbers are still pretty grim overall, but there is the start of a hint of silver lining if indeed we are actually peaking now.

I will say in my county we've been shut down for approaching 4 weeks now and while the dashboard shows we've not overwhelmed the health system, our confirmed cases have been basically flat for 2.5 weeks now. There's a bit of noise day-by-day (15 on Monday, 95 today) but basically if this is our peak, the peak is really long as there is no real decrease, just on average ~65 cases a day as seen at . Of course it is hard to tell to what degree our testing strategy/availability is impacting these numbers and if the true cases is following a similar pattern or not. But before we'll be able to unlock (May 4th is the day the local orders expire currently if they aren't amended to extend again) we'll need much better testing and actual decreases in the new cases.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 08 2020 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#386904) #
One other reason for probable under-reporting is that there are not enough test kits for the living in many places. They're not going to use the few test kits they have on the dead.
scottt - Wednesday, April 08 2020 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#386905) #
Ontario's chief medical officer said that testing too widely would produce "biased" data that skew too heavily towards negative results.

Who cares? People want to know  if they should quarantine themselves instead of self isolating.
That's how you stop this thing.

hypobole - Wednesday, April 08 2020 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#386906) #
Yeah here's the quote

Williams cautioned that testing too widely would produce “biased” data that skew too heavily towards negative results when the goal is to reflect the population-at-large.

This makes little sense to me either. Exactly what data is he trying to collect? What is his definition of "too widely". And why doesn't wider testing reflect the population-at-large better than narrower testing?

Sounds like someone trying to cover his ass for the horrifically low rate of tests conducted so far.
Michael - Wednesday, April 08 2020 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#386907) #
Well there has been some concern around false negatives (and maybe false positives). If you test widely with false positives in a typical test for a rare condition you may panic or cause follow on procedures for too many people. But that is for cases where you are testing for a condition known to be rare. Here we don't know how common or rare the condition of COVID is in the general population, but likely it is not very rare. But the opposite problem may happen with false negatives. There were some articles suggesting false negative rates as high as 30% on some versions of the test. There the problem might be if the false negatives are high people might test, get a false negative result, and now feel justified in not physical distancing properly and infect more. Maybe that's a justification?

But could also just be garbage statements. Of course the right answer is to test widely with accurate tests that have very low levels of false positive/negative results.
scottt - Wednesday, April 08 2020 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#386908) #
I don't see how a negative test would lead to not distancing. Most of the population think they're negative and are distancing.

The other thing he mentions is stockpiling tests in case there is a surge.
But now, there are no more travelers, so we're just testing medical staff and people admitted in hospitals.
More negative tests will reduce the number of folks going to hospitals.
They'll go if it gets really bad. Otherwise they'll go for a second test if things linger.

BC is flattening the curve faster than anyone else and their positive rate is only 3%.

John Northey - Wednesday, April 08 2020 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#386909) #
Blows my mind seeing a few minutes of the Trump show again today.  He and his crew are talking like things are going great down there.  Meanwhile today was the 6th day in a row of 1000+ dead from the disease in the USA.  Meanwhile new hot spots are showing up thanks to idiots who think 'personal liberty' is far more important than survival.  With a bit of bad luck the US could be in 1st for total dead by Saturday now (I expect that to happen). 

Ugh.  How much blood needs to be spilled before they get serious and stop having the reality show host running things?  So glad I don't live in the land where they refuse to allow mail in ballots for an extra few days during a health crisis for political advantage.  Disgusting.

As to us, we are going at less than half the pace the US was when they were at the same number of deaths (435 right now).  If you multiply ours by 10 to match their population we'd be at 4,350 which they surpassed on April 2nd (4k on April 1st).  We'd need to see 100-200 a day die from it to keep pace with them, which is unlikely right now.
scottt - Thursday, April 09 2020 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#386912) #
The early breakouts have been in more liberal states and the deaths are mostly in cities which vote Democrats while the rural areas vote Republicans.

I hear Florida is getting all the equipment they ask for. (Swing state led by a Republican Governor)
Other states are reporting getting less than 5% of what they need.
Many states are complaining that the feds actually confiscate their equipment to redistribute and then blame the states for not securing enough supplies. Some of the masks that came of federal stockpiles reportedly had expiry dates of 2010 and were thrown out because of rot.

John Northey - Thursday, April 09 2020 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#386920) #
I don't think this could've been handled worse by a team of drunk frat boys...oh wait., that is the supreme court.

If criminal charges aren't brought against most of Trump's administration after this I'll be disappointed.  His choices have lead to massive numbers of deaths vs what should've happened.  His daily gong show just puts it in stark terms daily.  He even contradicted himself during one where one moment he said he'd defund WHO, then moments later when asked said he didn't say that.  I'd like one reporter to ask him when he plans to resign due to the massive failure of his administration to handle this properly.  Of course he'd call it a nasty question and get huffy, but just to see the veins in his neck go out - maybe if pushed hard enough he'll figure out this isn't worth it and will walk away rather than run again.  Sadly I think his ego wouldn't let him.
John Northey - Thursday, April 09 2020 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#386922) #
Latest is the US is now in 2nd place for most dead, and a near lock to be #1 by Sunday and within 100 or so of the lead on Saturday.  Meanwhile we keep hearing they might open up soon regardless due to the need to get the economy roaring before fall elections.  Sigh.
scottt - Friday, April 10 2020 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#386927) #
The Trump show is 2 hours of alternative news. "Other countries are amazed by the incredible work we're doing here. We've sent a large number of doses to Michigan and other places..."

We might have an unelected senate here, but in the US, all the key jobs are given by the president to whoever pleases him.
All the Secretaries of state, the Attorney General, etc... Nobody actually running the country is elected except the president and the individual senators and congressmen have almost no power.

Nikki Haley is a big Trump supporter. It's funny because she's a Sikh, just like our NDP leader.
I can't imagine 2 random people who are less similar in mind and thoughts.
Her birth name is Nimrata Randhawa.
John Northey - Friday, April 10 2020 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#386933) #
Checking more stats...
  • States will be #1 tomorrow in deaths at some point.  Latest numbers have them just 102 behind Italy for most dead.  The US has gained around 1000 on Italy a day lately. 
  • for tests per 1 million people in the nation, we are doing well vs others in the Americas with 9,812 tests per million, the USA is at 7,670.  Worldwide Canada is tied with South Korea for tests per million people. 
  • Vs SK we have twice the cases, more than double the deaths, despite 130k fewer tests overall (due to population, as we both have tested the same per million people)
  • Switzerland, Turkey, and Brazil have cracked the 1000 dead mark in the last 24 hours.
  • 4 nations have 10k dead - Italy, USA, Spain, France.  Next to join will be the UK (8.9k) with everyone else officially under 5k (Iran and China both have many questions about accuracy)
  • 1k+ list is the above 4 plus UK, Iran, China, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, Brazil, Turkey, Switzerland.
  • Sweden is next at 870, then Canada at 569.  Lets hope we move down this list as others climb over our death total.
  • Yemen joined the club having its first case in the past 24 hours.
StephenT - Saturday, April 11 2020 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#386934) #
Ottawa's medical officer of health has estimated there are 11,000 to 34,000 cases of COVID-19 in Ottawa (as of Tue Apr 7, when officially there were just 429 confirmed cases).

The rest of this is my math:

The implication is that 1.1% to 3.4% of the population has (or has had) it.

That's just 4 to 6 doublings from a majority having it.

If cases are going up 10%/day, it would be doubling once a week, so the majority would have it in 4 to 6 weeks.

If cases are going up 1%/day, it would be doubling every 2 months, so the majority would have it in 8 to 12 months.

I'm not sure how low we can push down that rate of increase.
John Northey - Saturday, April 11 2020 @ 01:47 AM EDT (#386935) #
The trick is to keep it as slow as possible so that as those most at risk get it and fill hospitals we don't see hospitals overflow ala NYC.  Thus the need for as much testing as possible.  Yeah, we could still end up with a disaster situation but South Korea seems to have avoided it so far.  Trick is to keep things as stable as possible until a vaccine is developed.
John Northey - Saturday, April 11 2020 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#386937) #
As predicted, the US took over #1 for most dead today - Coronavirus: US has more COVID-19 deaths than Italy, any ...   Prety sad.  One wonders how Trump is left in power down there, how anyone can see him as anything but a total failure.
scottt - Sunday, April 12 2020 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#386938) #
I'm not sure how Canada can be compared to South Korea.
They're testing everyone with symptoms there.
Here, in Ontario, we're mostly retesting the same health care workers every few days.

hypobole - Sunday, April 12 2020 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#386940) #
"Music has been very important in keeping sane. Desmond Dekker's The Israelites and Springsteen's The Promised Land are naturals for this time."

Sorry for taking almost a week to reply, Mike, but thanks for the response. I'm taking your advice about music.

I remember listening to The Israelites as a kid. Growing up in a small country and western town, it was like nothing I'd heard before. Still play it regularly.

Listening to The Promised Land, I realize I do not play enough Springsteen.
John Northey - Sunday, April 12 2020 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#386941) #
Scottt - good point.  Mine was just that the raw number of tests matches per 1 million people.  Who you test is as important as how many.  Need to have those in power check SK and other successful nations to see what they did.  The cases here appear to be starting to flatten looking at charts - hopefully not just an illusion.  The US map, on the other hand, doesn't appear to be flattening just dong a quick look, mix in that Trump is sending machines to states without the materials to make those machines work (and preventing companies from sending stuff directly to states) suggests to me that the worst is coming down there still.  Heck, idiots were at massive church gatherings today - if that doesn't lead to big problems I'd be shocked.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 12 2020 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#386942) #
Thanks, hypobole. I am trying to find a way to support musicians. I have tickets to see Big Thief in July, but I am pretty sure that won't be happening. It sure would be nice if there were a Zoom-like app with professional audio output so that we could have virtual live shows with a stripped-down lineup.I'd gladly pay for that.

It was a rough week in the music world with the passing of Bill Withers and John Prine. They both did their share of comforting the afflicted and afflicting the comfortable. It's nice to see the new generation- Leon Bridges, Brittany Howard, Jason Isbell and Brandi Carlile, among others, carrying the torch.

This week, I will be returning to two old favourites- the Staples Singers with the Band at the Last Waltz doing Up on Cripple Creek. Mavis was nearing 40 and absolutely great. Pops must have been about 70 and his voices warm and rich. And I'll go back as I do to Stevie Wonder doing Superstition in the studio on youtube. More music to lift you up.

Chuck - Monday, April 13 2020 @ 06:18 AM EDT (#386944) #
It sure would be nice if there were a Zoom-like app with professional audio output so that we could have virtual live shows

In a week, Sarah Slean will be using Zoom for a living room concert. Not sure what the quality of the audio output will be, but beggars can't be choosers at this moment in time.

Mike Green - Monday, April 13 2020 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#386946) #
Isbell released a new version of 24 Frames recorded with his band at their homes. It's very good, but I imagine it probably couldn't be done live- at least not yet.

I am more hopeful about music making a quick safe comeback than baseball.
hypobole - Monday, April 13 2020 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#386947) #
Very few government heroes anywhere in this crisis, but one Canadian is J. P. Prasad. He's the Alberta health system procurement officer who planned for this in December when the much of the rest of the world failed to appreciate the scope of what was coming. Thanks to him, Alberta has freed up over $40 million dollars worth of PPE and ventilators for Ontario, Quebec and B.C.

scottt - Monday, April 13 2020 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#386948) #
It's complicated. One of the big variable is the age of the population.
Alberta has the youngest population of all the provinces.
The median age is 37.1. Ontario is at 40.4.  Quebec is at 42.6.
Italy was at 45.4 in 2015 and was estimated at 47.4.

This is really doing in the rounds in retirement and nursing homes.

Alberta is actually trying to cut the compensation they're giving to doctors in the middle of this.

hypobole - Monday, April 13 2020 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#386949) #
Prasad has nothing to do with doctors compensation. He's merely a bureaucrat in charge of supplying Alberta's hospitals. The fact he actually took the warning signs seriously, as opposed to almost everyone else at the time, merits praise, not belittlement.
bpoz - Monday, April 13 2020 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#386950) #
Agreed scottt. Older aged people and African Americans I believe.

There is talk of a 2nd peak in the fall.
scottt - Monday, April 13 2020 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#386952) #
Take the ventilators situation, for example.
When you put somebody on a ventilator, you need to sedate them because it goes down the throat.
You need specialists to monitor the patients. Those are not shipped with the equipment.
Normally, patients are hooked for 2 to 4 days and around 40% don't make it.
With Covid-19, patients are hooked up for up to 10, 14 days, and the survival rate is around one in 5.
Or so I heard.

Now, about bureaucrats, I don't know much.
I hear that they try to spend every dollar in their budget so that the money doesn't get cut.
Like spending half the budget in the last month of the year.
Software licenses are supposed to be popular because you don't actually need to store them anywhere.
Assuming the fiscal year end in March, spending surpluses in Q1 would have been easy.
Unless you're in a province where the budget gets spent early because there is no surplus.

I'm not belittling anyone, but without context I can't say that everyone else did their work poorly.
scottt - Monday, April 13 2020 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#386953) #
Apparently the Michigan Conservative Coalition wants to swarm the Capitol  tomorrow to protest against plans to extend the shutdown until the end of April.

It's the third worst state with 24000 declared cases.

ayjackson - Monday, April 13 2020 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#386955) #
What's the term? Natural selection?
John Northey - Tuesday, April 14 2020 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#386956) #
The far right MCC event scottt mentioned - here are details.  They plan to do it all in their cars, circling the government buildings from the sounds of it.  Should cost them all a fortune in wasted gas, guess they are lucky gas is cheap right now.  Odds are this group all drive the most polluting vehicles they can find given they are Trump fanatics (based on the website).  Hopefully they blow a fortune on this and find themselves too broke to donate to Trump's re-election bid.
Michael - Tuesday, April 14 2020 @ 03:07 AM EDT (#386957) #
I know nothing about Prasad but that article, but the article is again another example of gov't bureaucracy working well to help the people. The places that have competent bureaucracy do much, much better than the places that have been attacking the bureaucracy and making it not effective.

There have been similar articles about the gov't officials near me like about our health commisioner and about the SF mayor.

As for music, I've been enjoying the #SelfieCamJam from Barenaked Ladies on youtube.
scottt - Tuesday, April 14 2020 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#386958) #
Yeah, there's nothing wrong to point out bureaucrats who have done good things.
That doesn't necessarily mean other bureaucrats have made bad choices.

It's now being revealed that all the stuff donated to China earlier this year had expiry dates of Feb/March.

Kenney said that he'll push for use of drugs that have  been approved elsewhere, including Trump's malaria cocktail.
Sure, go ahead, there's not that many cases in Alberta.

The mayor of Vancouver is afraid his city will go bankrupt because of the number of people not paying their property taxes.
Here in Ontario, you have to own a certain share of your house to have the privilege of paying your taxes directly.
Otherwise, the banks collect the taxes yearlong  along with the mortgage payments.
The banks should have to cover the taxes if the owner cannot.
Otherwise, the house will belong to the city instead of the bank in case of default, no?

I'm  a bit confused at companies that are losing money.
Is the payroll subsidy helping Oceanex or not?
Or are they registered in Panama and using foreign sailors?
The cost of fuel must be really low now.

The road budget is probably something that will have to be trimmed, with fewer cars and trucks on them.

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 15 2020 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#386964) #
For your daily dose of science good cheer, I offer this piece from Science magazine. Short version: a sensible approach to the virus would likely involve significant disruption to the 2021 season at least.

Which leads to the song of the day from Neil Young.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 15 2020 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#386965) #
Significant disruption to the 2021 season at least

More and more, this type of thing is the messaging coming from the scientific community.

It feels like there is still a great reckoning with reality forthcoming for those wishcasting a return to normal a month or two from now. There is almost no talk from the NBA and NHL any more about finishing up their seasons. MLB keeps farting around with seemingly untenable Plan B's but I don't imagine for a minute that a single pitch will be thrown.

And then there is the NFL. Hoo boy. I feel like a lot is riding on its shoulders. Just like the resumption of pro sports post-9/11 was intended to send the message to the terrorists that they had not won, staging an NFL season may carry similar symbolic importance. An NFL season would be a clear indication that the "enemy" has been vanquished, America has emerged victorious and God Bless Donald Trump, another four years is there in the offing if you just check the right box.

As it is, Trump was last at odds with the NFL, but he nonetheless knows its symbolism, its conflation with military values and its importance to "every day" Americans, particularly those in red states. Having the NFL season delayed or cancelled, well, that would be seen as a death knell to Trump's re-election hopes. At least that's the view from this armchair.

Chuck - Wednesday, April 15 2020 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#386966) #
Because this particular thread seems to accommodate a broad latitude of commentary (which is a good thing), I present Noam Chomsky's two cents on all this. The man is 92 and still sharp.
Dewey - Wednesday, April 15 2020 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#386968) #
That's a great interview with Chomsky, Chuck. Thanks.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 16 2020 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#386984) #
Thank you for the Chomsky link, Chuck. He mentions that the pandemic is much less serious than the climate change threat which is existential. Canada reported to the UN yesterday that its emissions rose to such an extent in 2018 that almost all gains made between 2005-17 were erased. It merited a small article on page A15 of today's Globe and Mail.

Some Canadian cities have blocked off lanes on some streets to allow social distancing. Toronto has refused to do so, preferring that people drive to pick up essentials rather than walk. Needless to say, I don't think much of it.

John Northey - Thursday, April 16 2020 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#386988) #
Meanwhile in the world of unreality that is Trumpland the US will be open by May 1st.  Just ignore the bodies pilling up (over 30k so far).  And hey, he cleared out another Obama legacy - all the job gains since the big recession are gone now.  Just like the plans Obama had put together after the last virus scare (love the video of him warning a pandemic could be coming in 5 or 10 years said in 2014).  Trump's plans to reopen stuff will just result in another major wave of death by summer or fall, conflict with Canada over the border (I expect lots of chants of Yankee go home if we see US plates up here), and who knows what else. 
scottt - Thursday, April 16 2020 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#386990) #
No road blocked in Ottawa either.
I think they could achieve the same just by making sidewalks one-way, but not sure people who respect that.

It's mostly the cold that is keeping people off the streets here.

The 2020 emissions will be much lower.
What happens in 2021? Travel might be down for a bit, but the price of oil will be low for a while and many will buy more F-150s.

Still, the economy will take center stage.
This is a minority government.

A judge has blocked the Keystone XL again.
There is still more oil being pumped than used right now.

scottt - Thursday, April 16 2020 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#386991) #
You'll only see Americans in specific spots like cottages that they own.
Why would they come here if everything is closed?

We've already hit a lot of that with snowbirds.
We'll see what happens when they're set to return in the fall.

Chuck - Thursday, April 16 2020 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#386993) #
Meanwhile in the world of unreality that is Trumpland the US will be open by May 1st.

I don't know about that, John. The 10th amendment essentially reduces Trump's bold declarations to empty blather. The governors have the final say. The coalition of eastern states, led by Cuomo, has indicated that their lockdown will stay in effect until May 15, to be reevaluated then. And yesterday, the governor of California said that it was improbable that sporting stadiums would see gatherings of people before 2021. Both the east and west coast camps are messaging that science and the data will be the drivers, not political interests.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 16 2020 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#386995) #
Can the Chargers, Rams and Raidersplay outside of California? I can imagine that these are the kinds of things being discussed right now.
scottt - Thursday, April 16 2020 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#386996) #
Arizona is nice by then.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 16 2020 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#386997) #
Nevada too.  I don't know what the governors of those states are thinking.

There's battle lines being drawn.
Chuck - Thursday, April 16 2020 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#386999) #
NFL 2020. All games in red states. Superbowl at Mar-a-lago.
85bluejay - Thursday, April 16 2020 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#387001) #
Will be interesting because I expect the infection rates in the southern states to pick up steam.

On another note, the chinese government should really pay a steep price for their duplicity and really I hope that Xi Jinping does not survive this travesty - that's the thing about strongmen, they cannot show any weakness for fear of losing their crown(head).
scottt - Friday, April 17 2020 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#387007) #
I can only imagine the kneeling if the Superbowl was at Mar-a-lago.

There are pictures of Asian cities now and before the pandemic that makes it seem like they really need to address their emissions. At least, I can say that the difference is not visible from my window.

James W - Friday, April 17 2020 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#387008) #
The Raiders are no longer a California team; they're now Nevada's problem.
Mike Green - Friday, April 17 2020 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#387009) #
Thanks, JamesW.  I'll cease commenting on football- my expertise goes back to the time of Lance Allworth and Lance Rentzel, i.e. well past due date. 
scottt - Monday, April 20 2020 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#387018) #
Canadian Broadway star Nick Cordero had  his right leg amputated over the weekend due to Covid-19 complication.

This thing keeps getting scarier and scarier.

bpoz - Monday, April 20 2020 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#387020) #
I am still here. But getting a little lack-a-daysical about the virus.

Some active Bauxites have not posted in a while from what I can see. I hope you are doing ok.
StephenT - Monday, April 20 2020 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#387021) #
I've seen estimates lately that
-before distancing, cases were doubling twice per week (~20%/day)
-since distancing, cases are doubling once every two weeks (~5%/day).

That would imply in 2 months the hospitals could be 16x busier than now.

However, Ontario today has said we may have reached the peak.  I hope they're right, but what do they think the rate of increase is now?

If the rate of increase has fallen from 20%/day to 5%/day, then of course for a few weeks there would be a dip in the number of new cases, but the doublings would eventually overtake the previous levels.
hypobole - Monday, April 20 2020 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#387022) #
I'm doing OK, bpoz. Taking Mike's cue and listening to a lot of music

"mean old covid taught me to weep and moan
Lord mean old covid taught me to weep and moan
it's got what it takes to make a man stay at home"
Michael - Monday, April 20 2020 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#387023) #
It's been 12 days since I reported the semi-regular updates in numbers. The numbers still aren't good, but the length of time of doubling has gone up. The latest numbers are as of 5:38:38 PM 4/20/2020:

12 days ago the US was 401,166 cases; 13,007 deaths; 22,717 recovers. Now the US is 784,599 cases; 42,138 deaths; 72,522 recovered. So the cases have less than doubled, the deaths more than doubled, as have the recovered. Now they are reporting tests and hospitalizations with 4,003,551 tests in US and 117,363 hospitalized. Certainly a lot of cases that wouldn't qualify as "mild" in anyone's definition!

12 days ago Canada was 17,897 cases; 381 deaths; 4,047 recovers. Now Canada is at 37,710 cases; 1,730 deaths; 12,588 recovers. More than double the cases, and more than four times the deaths and 3 times the recovers.

In my county we are up to 1922 confirmed cases with 83 deaths. 1922 confirmed cases means slightly more than 1 in 1000 people have confirmed cases. Our hospital dashboard shows that COVID patients are taking up 25-30% of our ICU beds and that we have about 25-30% ICU beds free right now. In one way that means our hospitals have a fair amount of spare capacity running at only 70% capacity. But on the other hand, if we had had one more doubling of cases we'd fill our ICU capacity. And given before social distancing the doubling was every 3 days or so, that means we were actually pretty close to this. And then we can consider that we were 5-7 days faster to social distance than New York City.
vw_fan17 - Monday, April 20 2020 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#387024) #
I think in CAs case, the problem with case counts is that we are still testing limited, so the new case counts simply won't increase by much, since they are already at the max new case count per day possible..
btw, if anyone thinks that the entire US is lost due to Trump, listen to 5 minutes of one of his ramblings, and then watch all 30 minutes of Gov. Newsom's press conference and be amazed at how more he sounds like a leader who understands what's going on:
Not to mention, being able to answer questions off the cuff with real solid replies, side-stepping political softballs (like trying to get him to criticize Trump), etc. I'd vote for him over any of the candidates in line this fall in a heartbeat if I was a US citizen - which I would become if they ever eliminate dual taxation.

Plus, that ASL guy is a freaking boss!
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 21 2020 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#387025) #
COVID-19, oh I swear what he means
at this moment you mean everything

scottt - Tuesday, April 21 2020 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#387026) #
There's a huge dichotomy in the numbers.
The cases in retirement/nursing homes are sky rocketing.
Everything else is slowly clearing out.

What's happening in nursing homes is that the people are not moved to hospitals and die there.
So, we're no seeing the strains on hospitals.
At the same time, they don't have the same level of equipment and procedures there as they do in the hospitals.
Right now, they take the temperature of anyone who enters the building, that only catch a small subset of those spraying the virus. Anyone who feels sick and works in a residence can be tested, but the protocol is that if you go for a test you must quarantine until you get the results which takes 3 days or more. You do that once, the results come negative and you're not likely to do that again when you do catch it for real.
The directive to prevent staff for working in more than 1 residence take effect tomorrow.
When are we going to see the benefits from that? For many residences it's already too late.
It's not possible to keep that 2 metre distance in a residence.
They are residents who must be lifted and carried, that's a 2 person procedure.
Then there's the more personal assistance like baths.
There is a real shortage of staff which only become worst when an outbreak is declared.

bpoz - Tuesday, April 21 2020 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#387027) #
Absolutely correct scottt. I worked in long term care for 15 years. The residents gain if their care giving staff member goes the extra mile based on their personal high standard of care. Or lose based on lower standards.

Just like parenting.
Michael - Tuesday, April 21 2020 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#387031) #
Our county dashboard breaks out the long term care numbers. 18% of our cases and 33% of our deaths come from long term care facilities (by far the largest share of that coming from the skilled nursing as opposed to independent or assisted living or board and care).
scottt - Tuesday, April 21 2020 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#387033) #
In Quebec, 850 deaths out of a 100 came from retirement residences.
scottt - Wednesday, April 22 2020 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#387036) #
That was 850 out of the first 1000.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 22 2020 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#387037) #
Checking stats Over 45k dead in the USA, or as many as Italy and Spain combined.  Their growth rate has slowed to around 5% a day increase in total dead, but Italy and Spain are around a 2% increase now .  We are doing poorly with 3 days under 10% in a row but higher than the US for growth rate (far, far, far better than they were at the same # of dead or dead as a percentage of population). 

I'd say the US will see an ugly wave in 2 weeks.  Like they aren't in ugly enough situation as is. With all these beaches opening and the like far earlier than they should be we should expect a lot more dead.  Trump is already bragging about how 'few' are dead vs his old projections but his 60k last one will be shot past in about 2 weeks.  I'm expecting the 28th using a 5% growth rate which I'm sure will be an underestimate with the moronic reopening going on.  May 9th is now the expectation for 100k as the death rate has slowed a lot vs earlier.
scottt - Thursday, April 23 2020 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#387040) #
One other aspect, of course, is the help the government is providing.
Which is probably very hard to discuss without getting into politics.

There seems to be a push towards a universal package--I don't need any help.
My wife and me are working more than ever.
I find it interesting that the EU countries have used wage subsidies.
The US is probably the closest to a universal package with up to $1200 going to everybody who make less than 130K. To me, that seems too little to those who need it and money spend on everybody in the hope that this will lead to everybody spending more once the economy "reopens".
It's that trickle down effect again.

John Northey - Thursday, April 23 2020 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#387041) #
I think the idea of a universal one of $2k a month to everyone and taxing it back next year if you made over a certain amount at tax time makes a lot of sense for right now.  Long term a true UBI (Universal Basic Income) makes a ton of sense.  Rules need to be set up of course, but there was a test done partially in Ontario (Ford killed it even though early results said it was working as desired) and other nations are putting it in place.  Yeah, some people would get cash who don't need it.  Yeah, some might abuse it.  But right now we are in a situation where we need to make sure people aren't falling through the cracks - which would lead to far bigger long term costs.  The US one has massive holes in it (if you are married to an immigrant you can't get it for example), the Canadian one does too (some people make more on it than if they are working as it isn't going to everyone but just those without work,, so a part time grocery store worker could be making less than someone who was laid off).
Michael - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#387042) #
I agree with John Northey. UBI makes a lot of sense in normal time and even more in these times.

If you care about a cut off (like the US proposal does) it makes more sense to tax it back in the future if you are over the threshold rather than calculate based on 2018 income levels (which is also much more complex to work out quickly and may miss people that need it now but had high income in 2018 and likewise help people who had low 2018 income but are actually ok now). But frankly people would do better to divorce the payments from the taxing and not worry about it so much. You can pay for UBI through taxing of the UBI amounts from people over a certain income/wealth, but you could also pay for it through other taxes (wealth tax, business tax, VAT, etc.). More generally split the things that involve money out from the things that bring money in as the pools of money can be split from different things.

I'd strongly recommend Utopia for Realists as a book that covers UBI (among other issues) including the research and history that suggests it in fact is used well, leads to better outcomes, and isn't "wasted". See
BlueJayWay - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 06:43 AM EDT (#387044) #
I also wish the CERB were universal, considering I'm one of those who fall through a crack. I'd be making more money right now if I had been laid off. I'm literally working for less money than a lot of people are getting to stay home and binge watch Neflix.
scottt - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 07:44 AM EDT (#387045) #
Right now you get the 2k a month the feds are offering, no questions asked until later.
It's not supposed to be a raise. A part time grocery store worker would probably have more hours now then before. An aged grocery worker should just call in sick and take the full benefit.
I don't think it's worth the risk.
Wages are different across provinces.
Still, there's a majority of Canadians who haven't applied because they don't need the benefit.
And again, there's isn't one country that has done this.
The economy will be ugly for a long time to come.
The reality is that this type of assistance normally falls on the provinces and they won't have the money to finance it once things return to the new normal.
The Ontario teachers were quick to settle once the pandemic broke out. 

scottt - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 07:55 AM EDT (#387046) #
I haven't had a raise this decade or the one before and the company *might* have to reduce our salaries to avoid running out of cash. 
I don't consider myself as falling through the cracks.
There's little worse than working for an employer who goes bankrupt as employees are usually the last to get paid and that takes years.
Many states in the US don't have sick days, or vacation days, just days-away-from-work.
That could partially explains those re-opening rallies.

Mike Green - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#387048) #
There are various markers of social solidarity and by almost all markers, the US is pretty much at the bottom for developed nations.  It's not exclusively a right-left thing- a number of Asian countries have high levels of social solidarity as do the Scandinavian social democracies. 
hypobole - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#387049) #
Mike, the countries you mentioned don't have a large, media-driven rabble of science deniers either.
Mike Green - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#387053) #
The US did not have that media-driven group of science deniers 50 years ago.  It's a bit of a chicken and egg situation- personally, I think the causation works more like this: breakdown of social solidarity leads to increased alienation leads to increased market for unscientific ideas.  As far as I am concerned, it starts with Thatcher/Reagan, but YMMV.
hypobole - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#387054) #
There was no Fox News 50 years ago. It's been the main driver of anti-science both because of it's agenda and reach.
Mike Green - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#387055) #
Fox News arrived in the US in 1996.  By that time, the march to the unscientific world in the US was well under way.  Climate change denialism and an extreme version of fundamentalist religion had long since taken hold. 
Michael - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#387060) #
I think fox news does deserve a fair amount of the "credit". But don't forget race as a key driver of things in the US.

Ezra Klein's latest book "Why We're Polarized" does a good job laying out how the identities and views between the parties has shifted in the US, and with it lots of other identities have all consolidated and aligned with the political views. The book is a good read, although it more explores the issue than presents any real solution or path forward.

One example is the research shows that uninterested public who don't follow politics have an easier job identifying Dem / Rep views on issues today than interested highly informed public did in 1980 (because the parties were more varied in 1980 with conservative southern democrats and liberal northern republicans so telling their position on lots of things were harder).
John Northey - Friday, April 24 2020 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#387061) #
The big starting point was 1980 and the election of Reagan.  He slashed, and I mean really slashed, taxes for the rich.  From a 70% tax rate for the highest earners to a well sub 50% rate.  Then he slashed it on capital gains even more.  Then did everything possible to kill unions.  Then got re-elected with a massive vote in 84 thanks to a wave of patriotism around his skyrocketing debt to finance all of that and the massive jump in military spending.  That was the beggining of the end for the USA.  People thought his moves made America strong, but it really put it into a bind long term with locked in costs (military) and (so far) permanently reduced revenues.  It'll take a transformative leader to shift things back to the way it was in the 50's/60's when one income could be enough for a family.  The only one i see on the horizon is AOC but Fox and the like are already going nuts over her and the mega rich will fight with every cent they have to keep her out of the presidency.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 25 2020 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#387063) #
That's about it.

The Hollywood happy ending to the story would have to involve Edward Snowden as well as AOC. Someone has to walk in the footsteps of Robert Redford and Paul Newman, and that has to be Snowden. The exile to Russia makes it perfect.

hypobole - Saturday, April 25 2020 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#387064) #
Mike, Reagan was a staunch anti-environmentalist - "trees cause more pollution than automobiles". And yes, there has been anti-science in a number of groups for quite some time. But where was the national media helping espouse Reagan's anti-science views? There wasn't at the time. It wasn't until Fox appeared on the scene that anti-science became mainstream in America.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 25 2020 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#387065) #
Climate change denial funded by the Koch brothers among others was very successful in the late 80s and early 90s. It was think tanks finding purchase in the conventional media, supplemented by talk radio. It even arrived in Canada with the Globe and Mail publishing skeptics' articles into the early 90s.

The anti-evolution crowd gained traction mainly through grassroots organizing in different churches than had existed 20 years prior. This was part and parcel of the culture wars that again preceded Fox News.

scottt - Saturday, April 25 2020 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#387066) #
Thatcher was a chemist. She worked briefly in research before changing career path.
She shutdown a huge chunk of the British coal industry.

She believed in privatization and she fought against unions, but she wasn't a science denier.
She's mostly viewed as a neoliberal, in scope of UK politics.

Reagan was of course an actor, but he was the president of the Screen Actors Guild, what the actors called their union. He started a Democrat but by becoming a Republican, he was elected governor of California, where he raised taxes and got re-elected. He just happened to be hugely popular at a time when the Democratic president was not.

Reagan came close to winning every single state in his re-election.
The focus on religion over science came later, after Bush lost his re-election.

scottt - Saturday, April 25 2020 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#387067) #
Yeah, it probably happened more at the state level than the national one.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 25 2020 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#387068) #
The policies of Reagan and Thatcher led to greater divisions within their countries. Anti-science groups capitalized on these divisions In various ways.

There's no question that Fox News accelerated the process by concentrating the anti-science propaganda in one easily accessible place.
bpoz - Saturday, April 25 2020 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#387069) #
Da Box as a news source is honest and very intelligent. Thank you for your efforts.

Reagan was president in the 1980s. All the stuff you guys are talking about is way over my head.

It seems almost all of you are grandfathers that are not yet retired. Fathers day is in June I think. You all deserve recognition. I hope you get that recognition. I know I will. I have managed well enough as a father. Lucky I guess.

Sorry to be serious because that is depressing.

My sincere feelings are that my family will be fine. I hope your is too.


scottt - Saturday, April 25 2020 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#387070) #
There were divisions before Thatcher and Reagan and neither are particularly representative of their party today.

I think it's really the internet that  led to the spreading of anti or pseudo science ideologies.
Also, the big media hardly make any money anymore.
The don't exist to generate revenues so much than as propaganda machines.

The UK has the BBC.
The history of radio in the US is interesting.
There was a ban on privately owned radio that lasted until April 1919, which incidentally might have something to do with the Spanish Flu.
By 1929, the American radio signals coming over the border led to the creation of the CBC.
AT&T was an early player who eventually was sold and became NBC.
The C in CBS stands for Columbia--the female personification of the US.
The Mutual Broadcasting System was the national broadcaster for MLB.
NBC sold half his network to ABC.
There was never a state owned network.

Paul D - Friday, May 01 2020 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#387082) #
Let's pretend for a moment that the play games in empty stadiums plan comes to fruition.

Would it make more sense for the Jays to play out of Buffalo or Dunedin? Seems like you'd want to minimize border crossings.
Chuck - Friday, May 01 2020 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#387084) #
If a bat hits a ball and there is no one there to see it, does it make a sound?
Mike Green - Friday, May 01 2020 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#387085) #
I don't know.  By then, the hotel at the RC might be open and a few rich fans could watch the game. 
scottt - Thursday, May 21 2020 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#387142) #
Part of the reason Ontario has fared better than Quebec is that while the lockdown started with the Ontario march break, Quebec had theirs 2 weeks earlier and the students were back to school for an entire week before schools were shut down.

So blind luck.

Critics who say that we should have closed the border with China earlier miss the fact that areas with high Chinese population are not heavily affected. To make a difference we would have had to close all the borders earlier which was never going to happen.

What bugs me is the "no evidence of person to person transmission"  official line of the WHO in January. How can you assume all the transmission is from animal to human when nobody has found a single infected animal? How can you assume all the transmission is from an "illegal animal" in a wet market when no more than 40% of those affected have visited that market?  How can you conclude that it's not contagious when it is in fact extremely contagious?

I don't have a medical degree, but I think I could understand the answers if I were to encounter them.
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