Rumor is the Pirates are interested in Kyle Schwarber. I hope this happens because Pittsburgh need to support Skenes.

Pittsburgh is not where you go if you want to win.
It's not a low tax state either.

The main problem with signing with the Pirates is that they won't be buyers at the deadline and the budget won't probably be there when needed.
So for the Pirates, it's all about team friendly deals with homegrown players.
The problem is that they have been bad for so long that there isn't any of those around.

Talk around the podcasts is that MLB has given Pirate ownership a "nudge" to spend more and budget could be around $100 million

Well, the owners can't ask for a salary cap (and floor) until the low spending teams start acting like actual spenders. If the CBA wasn't set to expire after next season the Pirates would not be shopping in the Schwarber aisle.

Schwarber grew up a Reds fan and still live there, so that might be a possibility. 

Good point on how MLB might be pushing teams pre-lockout next winter. They want to appear like 'we are reasonable, teams are spending' and 'the top teams spend too much, we need controls'. So lets look at projected '26 payroll and '25 payroll (via FG) all figures in millions - 2026 vs 2025 - this is raw payroll, not CBT payroll which is what I normally pay attention to (figuring Jays want to minimize that to avoid paying extra to other clubs).

Bottom feeders (Sub $100) (6): Colorado - $97, $124; Pittsburgh - $64, $87; A's - $75, $79; ChiSox - $68, $85; Twins - $96, $136; Rays - $84, $79;

Close to bottom (4 - were sub $100 or are damn close): Cincinnati - $107, $119; St Louis - $108, $144; Washington - $118, $93; Cleveland - $102, $75;

$200+ mil (8): Jays, Yankees, Houston, SD, Philly, Mets, LAD ($300+), Atlanta.

So expect pressure on the bottom feeders and those close to it to not dump contracts in '26 but to build up instead. Getting everyone over $100 mil looks better than having those 6 being 'zero hope' for fans already. The Jays could take advantage of that by sending one of them Berrios with a 'cash if he opts in' thing added on so the other team isn't hit hard in '27/'28. Colorado might be good for Yariel Rodriguez - they always need pitching something fierce and he'd get them just over that $100 mil mark and be a decent item for trade bait mid-season for them - Maybe the Jays cover $1 mil of his salary each year or something to make it easier for them to accept. I could also see the Jays keeping Yariel in AAA as an expensive 'plan B'.

Not hard to picture MLB going with a pretend cap/floor for now, to show the players it could work, then doing whatever they can to screw the players over once in place. Forbes says MLB revenue in '24 was $12.1 billion. For comparison, the NBA's cap is $140 mil per team vs $11.4 billion overall revenues with 30 teams so to match up MLB would want the same cap but that ain't gonna happen. The NBA is a soft cap, if you go over you pay $1.75 per dollar over (175% tax) up to $4.75 per dollar (475%) which is a heck of a lot stronger than MLB. MLB's is from 20% to 110% (LAD/Mets level) which is less than the lowest tax in the NBA. So that $140 mil level for getting taxed in the NBA matches up to $244 mil in MLB (where Luxury Tax starts). I could see the tax getting higher in MLB (say, 50% to start, up to 200% or something like that). The NBA's minimum is $111 mil roughly. I figure those bottom feeders in MLB would fight that tooth and nail - they want it to be $50 mil or some other silly low figure.

It is interesting to see the NBA's official revenue being close to MLB's - used to be far lower. Mix in how the NBA has half the games and half the seats available and it really doesn't make a lot of sense. I suspect MLB's actual revenue is a lot higher but we just don't know as it is hidden from the public for obvious reasons. Jays can easily hide nearly 100% of their revenue if they want (owning stadium, TV, etc.) as an example.

I just hope the Jays can take advantage of the PR shell game going on to clear out contracts they don't want anymore (Rodriguez, Berrios) to free up space for ones they want (Tucker or Bo, plus a closer). Plus trade extra parts (Loperfido, Lukes, etc.) for relievers.

Atkins today said that they expect Bieber to be ready for opening day and that they're taking it "week to week" with him. That seems a bit ominous, no? It never made total sense that he opted in.

Yeah, that sounds like there are more issues with his arm than we knew. That $12 mil he made by taking the option (factoring in the $4 mil buyout) might have been a good idea on his part if he is 'week to week' already. Still, unless he needs another TJ it should work out. If he is gone for a few months early then keeping Berrios makes sense as suddenly the 6 man rotation is back to a 5 man with an injured guy back at some point and Lauer being the 6th.

Atkins confirmed it was Berrios' decision to be away from team during playoff run. Really, not a good look at all. Hopefull, They can find a trade for him.

Definitely sounds like he end for Berrios in Toronto. Kind of shocked he just decided to leave the team himself.

Well, we usually learn nothing when Atkins answer a question.

I don't see any issue with Berrios. He wasn't happy to be left out of the playoffs rotation.
That's fine. Why would he be happy?
Was the clubhouse devastated that he wasn't there? Nope. The clubhouse was on fire.

Maybe he's so fuming mad that he opts out. That's fine.
Where's the issue? We don't want him in the pen. He's never thrown a pitch in the pen.

The only issue would be for him to be pitching poorly.
Again, they went 20-11 when he started.

I don't see how they can move that contract.
They could pay him to pitch elsewhere but that money needs to be put towards patching holes first.

He said. "As of right now, he's in a strong position."
"I suppose as he starts to ramp up, we could consider some stagger...
the potential of him not being at 100 per cent at the very start."

"But we're taking it a week at a time at this point."

They are getting ready to load manage everybody, except Cease.
Gaus is going to be 35.
Bieber is coming off a year in which he didn't throw a lot.
Yesavage is coming off a record number of innings.
Ponce? I have no idea. They probably pitch once a week in Korea.

Atkins comments would seem to make a Berrios return pretty awkward so the Jays must be confident of moving his contract- wonder how much money the jays will have to eat - The Cardinals ate $20m in the Sonny Gray trade.

I can understand Berrios’s disappointment, being left off the postseason roster after all of the hard work and many seasons as a durable SP he put in to get to this point — including being pulled, probably prematurely, in one of his best-ever starts: the 2023 WC game against Minnesota.

But leaving the team during a WS run is pretty bad. And it could conceivably happen again in 2026 (Berrios being left off the postseason roster).

What if the Blue Jays had won the WS? Would Berrios have worn his WS ring with pride? Or stuffed it a drawer and left it there?

2026 rotation....

1. Cease: 30, 168 regular season, 3 2/3 post = 171 2/3 IP
2. Gausman: 35, 193 regular season, 30 2/3 post season innings = 223 2/3 IP last year
3. Bieber: 31, 40 1/3 regular season, 18 2/3 post = 59 innings
4. Yesavage: 22, 98 minors, 14 regular season, 27 2/3 playoffs = 139 2/3 IP
5. Ponce: 32, 180 2/3 regular season, 17 post = 197 2/3 IP
6. Berrios: 32, 166 regular season, 0 post
7. Lauer: 31, 104 2/3 regular season, 8 2/3 post = 113 1/3 IP

So the only guy super-low in IP was Bieber for obvious reasons. There is a rule of 30 - try not to jump a guy more than 30 innings from his record high if you want to keep him healthy. Lauer has thrown 158 2/3 IP in a season before so basically everyone can have 5 IP starts for 30-32 starts without a problem (160 IP = 32 5 IP starts) and still have some gas for the playoffs. Yesavage is the only potential issue there so expect him to get skipped a few times during the season when off-days hit and to get pulled quickly from starts until the post-season. I'd expect around 150 IP from him in the regular season, then being pushed in the post-season. Ponce had LOTS of innings last year in Korea, but that was vs weak opposition (AA level). I think the Jays should be in good shape if everyone pitches to their capabilities, not career years, just projected levels.

Schwarber is going back to the Phils, 5 years, $150 mil.

LAD gets Diaz.

Details on Diaz to Dodgers: 3 years, dollars not revealed yet. I'd guess over $20 mil a year.

He'd have been nice, but I'm OK with the Jays not blowing the wad on him. Robert Suarez, Pete Fairbanks, and others might produce just as well for a lot less and no QO.

Ah, $69 mil over 3 - so $23 mil per year for a closer. The most ever paid per year to a closer for age 32-34 seasons. Fits the Dodgers MO - build up as many high end pitchers as possible, then hope as many as possible are healthy come the playoffs.

Phillies getting Schwarber almost certainly takes them out of Tucker sweepstakes. Not sure who his market is now aside from Jays.

I woulda done that Diaz deal but i imagine the dodgers weren't gonna let anyone outbid them.

In his recent comments, Atkins seemed to indicate that the team has the remaining budget to add an impact position player or an impact reliever, but not both.

Tucker seems more realistic by the day, but we should know better than most fanbases about how unpredictable free agency is.

Plausible destinations for Tucker: TOR, NYY, NYM

Any others? I wouldn't rule out the Dodgers adding him as well.

I think there is competition for Tucker from big players. A lot of teams see Bellinger as better value according to Morosi but I think Jays will have competition from Dodgers and NYY for Tucker. LAD can just trade away Hernandez.

https://youtu.be/RNnFWKTha40

BA Blue Jays prospects, questions on Nimmala

Don't think the Dodgers are in on Tucker. Mets, maybe although I think they need starting more so expect Valdez or Imai or someone. Yankees? I don't see it with the way they are crying poor and how OF isn't a need for them but who knows. Bellinger fits more with ability to move around the field and has perfect swing for stadium. All these teams that used to spend big have either stopped spending or are cutting back (SD, Detroit, Cubs, etc..). Owners are bigger cheapskates than ever. Boston will spend but I think on an infielder. Their OF is already too crowded.

If you're only competing with the Mets, what an opportunity to try to grab Tucker without a bidding war from multiple teams.

Matz to Rays, seemingly for 2/$15m.

Quick summary...

• Jays sign: Cease & Ponce
• NYY sign: Grisham took QO), Yarbrough ($2.5 mil)
• Boston signs: no one
• O's sign: Ryan Helsley, Leody Taveras
• Rays sign: Cedric Mullins, Steven Matz, Jake Fraley
• NYM sign: Devin Williams, Richard Lovelady
• LAD sign: Edwin Díaz, Miguel Rojas

So in theory the Yankees and Mets should have tons available to spend given how minor their stuff has been (Mets 2 relievers, Yankees resigning guys). Rays signing anyone is always a surprise, and the O's are crazy cheap so they are almost in Rays territory with 'really? they signed someone?', Boston has been quiet outside of trades (Sonny Gray the big fish for them, entering age 36 season but projected as a 3.9 fWAR starter). The Yankees haven't added a single soul, Mets did add Marcus Semien but lost Brandon Nimmo in the process and fans of them are furious as they just lost Diaz and are on the verge of losing Pete Alonso as well (Mets won't go beyond 3 years, he wants 5).

It'll be interesting to see how things shake out over the next few days/weeks/months as we get closer to what could be the last season for a bit with the lockout threat looming large.

By far the team that scares me the most in the AL right now is the Red Sox. They aren't a finish product but they have some incredible talent, money to spend, and tons of tradable assets. Yankees might be good but they're hanging on by relying on Judge having 10+ WAR seasons and he's 34. Of Skubel gets traded, I hope it's to NL!

Boston acquired Sonny Gray in a trade. They also traded for Oviedo.
The O's traded for Taylor Ward which pushes Tyler O'Neil to a platoon role. They also added Andrew Kitteridge.
The Rays also added Ryan Vilade back on November.

The Rays won the number 2 draft pick which would be scary if they actually drafted well.

we really need to sign Bo tbh.


we forget how terrible Gimenez was all year this year and counting on him and Clement as literally your only capable defensive middle IF is just asking for trouble.

scottt - makes me think who has drafted well in the AL East lately?

• Rays: 20-2 reached, negative WAR; 21-4 reached, best is @ 0.4; 22-2 reached, 0.4 best; 23-25 none reached.
• Red Sox: 20-1 reached 0.1; 21-4 reached, net 0.6; 22-2 reached Roman Anthony 3.1, Chase Meidroth 1.3; 23-3 reached, Kyle Teel 1.9, a 0.6, and a neg; 24-1 reached neg WAR; 25-none reached
• Yankees: 20-Austin Wells 2.7; 21-5 reached, Ben Rice 1.9, 4 others 0.3 and neg; 22-2 reached, Cam Schlittler 2.0, and a 0.1; 23-25 none
• O's: 20-Jordan Westburg 5.3, 2 neg; 21-3 reached, Colton Cowser 3.4, Connor Norby 1.0, a 0.6; 22-2 reached, Jackson Holliday 1.1, Dylan Beavers 1.0, plus 2 DNS who reached Nolan McLean 1.8, a 0.2; 23-25 none;
• Jays: 20-1 reached Austin Martin, neg WAR; 21-2 reached Matt Svanson 1.8 & Gunnar Hoglund ; 22-2 reached Fluharty & Roden; 23-none; 24-Trey Yesavage 0.3 + playoffs wow; 25 none.

So just checking guys who have 1+ WAR so far you get Rays ziltch; Red Sox 3; Yankees 3; O's 5; Jays 1. Wow, the O's have done well but there is an * there as they did it with top 10 picks (often top 5) plus bonus picks due to being a 'small market'. Tampa has that 'small market' bonus pick too but hasn't done much. I was expecting a different result - I expected the Rays to be better than that. But this is early for these drafts. 5 seasons since the '20 stunted draft. These figures could flip fast. BP had the Rays with 9 top 100 prospects after all so their numbers could change fast. Carson Williams is a top 10 prospect, drafted in '21 by the Rays who reached the majors with -0.2 bWAR last year (106 PA) after hitting 209/314/438 in AAA lifetime (under 500 PA) - looks like Tony Batista on the surface, but who knows? In '21 Wander Franco was a rookie sensation for the Rays who signed a deal through 2033 (finally can be voided as he was convicted for what he did to a 14 year old girl).

Interesting that the Rays do such a long term thing for their prospects. Use up every minute possible in the minors, then call then up once it is up or lose to rule 5, then manipulate the service clock as much as possible. Guess it makes sense - they know they cannot sign long term and their judgement on who to give those to isn't always the best (see Franco above). The Yankees have done well given they are always late in the draft (first pick in the 20's every year). Trick is to do well with what you have. Jays 2022 was Brandon Barriera (losing all prospect shine thanks to injuries), Gunnar Hoglund (traded before he played a minor league game), Austin Martin (looked damn good in the draft, flopped ever since), Alek Manoah (sigh), etc. Last Jay 1st rounder to get 4+ WAR other than Manoah was Jeff Hoffman (2014), last to reach even 10 WAR was Marcus Stroman (2012 22nd overall pick, 21.9 WAR). It has been a slog here in Jays land pre-Yesavage with that brief light that was Manoah.

Rays last 1st rounder to reach even 1 WAR was Shane McClanahan in 2018 (8.8), last to reach double digits (who signed) was Blake Snell (2011, 25.1 so far). Of course, 06 and 07 produced Evan Longoria (58.9 WAR) and David Price (40). 2 near HOF'ers so you can flop a lot after that and feel good still.

The Red Sox look like they could be a dangerous team in the coming years, especially if they start to spend a bit. If they can add someone like Bichette, Marte or Seager to strengthen their lineup and infield this off-season, they could compete for the AL East title in 2026.

They hurt themselves by giving away Chris Sale for nothing, though. Sale has totalled 10 fWAR in his two seasons with Atlanta since the trade (in only 49 total starts).

Mitch Bannon has some Bieber scoop....

Bieber dealt with forearm fatigue at the end of the season, a person briefed on the matter said, but has since begun offseason recovery and rehab work. It’s not entirely clear if the forearm ailment entirely caused Bieber to pick up his player option and avoid the unknowns of free agency, but it likely factored into his decision.

If he was worried about his injury longterm, wouldn't he have opted out with the high likelihood of getting more than 1yr/$12m this offseason on what would be his last real contract?

Well if he was worried he wouldn't clear a medical check for a long term contract, but thinks he should actually be healthy in a year, then this might be a fine place to pitch for 1 year to build back up faith for a much larger contract. No doubt there's risk there, but it isn't like he hasn't earned a lot of money already, so even in the worst case he'll be fine.

Either way, it is good news for us next year.

I suspect Bieber was worried he wouldn't pass a physical thus could end up with less than $12 mil for 1 year. If a team thought he might need a second TJ then he wouldn't get it for sure, if they thought he might be hurt most of the year few would pay that much for 1/2 a season or less. The $12 mil was money in the bank and he was comfortable here it seemed, so the old 'bird in hand vs 2 in the bush' situation occurs. Plus next winter he might get $100+ mil which would be more than enough to cover a lifetime so why risk it all for maybe a couple more mil this year? The Jays have a good rep (earned) for doing rehab for guys who are hurt, plus Bieber saw it up close vs the cheapskate Guardians setup.

It will be interesting to see how things go this year and next winter with Bieber and Gausman and Varsho. All 3 going into free agency, all 3 very expensive to sign and keep.

For thinking through 2026 lets see what the standard is for offense at each position and how the Jays are currently stacked and how the top free agent/trade target is. 2025/2026 wRC+ projection

• C: 95 - Kirk 116/122
• 1B: 109 - Vlad 137/153
• 2B: 90 - Clement 98/100, Bo 134/121, Marte 145/136
• 3B: 96 - Clement 98/100, Barger 107/110, Bregman 125/120
• SS: 101 - Gimenez 70/95, Bo 134/121
• LF: 102 - Santander 61/106, Lukes 103/109, Schneider 127/105, Bellinger 125/116
• CF: 93 - Varsho 123/100
• RF: 105 - Barger 107/110, Lukes 103/109, Santander 61/106, Springer 166/123 , Tucker 136/136
• DH: 110 - Springer 166/123 , Santander 61/106

So that is a quick and dirty look. Projections are Steamer. So Jays are above average no matter what at C/1B/2B/3B/LF (if you ignore Santander '25), CF, RF (projections, '25 bad for Santander and Lukes there). Santander a poor DH and Gimenez below average hitter at SS (shocking no one). Nothing is changing SS and Santander is going to play somewhere (LF/RF/DH) but the other slots are all above average no matter what it seems with Lukes barely below average in RF (2025) and Santander's projection looking good for LF and under a touch at DH. So signing Tucker or Bellinger would just mean the ow 100's bats at LF/RF in Lukes/Schneider won't be there often, forcing Barger to 3B and Clement to 2B. Signing Bo or trading for Marte would make Clement the everyday at 3B (barely above average there) and Barger to RF (just above average), but Bo & Marte both would be FAR above average at 2B for offense. Bregman would up the offense at 3B, shifting Barger to RF and Clement to 2B.

It is a rubiks cube team that is for sure. Can shift it 1001 ways. Plus, of course, Kirk and Vlad both will get the odd DH day, forcing Springer to the OF (LF or RF) or giving him a full day off. What will happen? Assorted rumors are going nuts now of course, suggesting something will break soon. For the sake of getting the offensive market going one hopes something happens soon. For the Jays they might be wanting to play the waiting game and see if prices come down once someone signs, depending on how many are chasing Bo and Tucker. From a PR POV it'd be best if Bo signs then the Jays sign Tucker I'd think - but not by enough to risk losing both this winter. The Jays want that one more solid hitter and those 2 are the only free agents that fit the bill. Marte would be sweet too, but doing that trade would be expensive in prospects.

Clement is a very good defensive SS too.

The Orioles reportedly made the same $150 million offer to Schwarber as the Phillies so there's no reason to think they won't be in on Tucker. I go back and forth on who I'd rather the Jays sign between him and Bo. I wish we could have both.

I recently read an article rating the 10 worst contracts in MLB and Santander was ranked 4th, mainly because he wasn't able to contribute much because of injury. I never knew until seeing this that over $11 million a year of his salary is deferred.

Although I love Bo's present hitting ability, I tend to lean Tucker because he's a more multifaceted player (more value from defense, baserunning, and power). I'm also somewhat concerned about Bo's injury issues in recent seasons and about his ability to maintain a high batting value as his bat speed and overall quickness declines. We don't know how his idiosyncratic hitting approach will hold up in his 30s.

There is chatter on social media about the Dodgers, Tucker, and a possible shorter term higher AAV deal. If Tucker’s market doesn’t have enough realistic suitors to drive the price up, then a higher AAV deal with the Dodgers might make more sense for him rather than trying to extract as many years as possible from a team like the Jays. I really don’t think a 10 year deal for Tucker, as good as he is, would be the smart play even if it’s mostly to reduce the luxury tax burden. Tucker has 1 more season in his 20’s. It would be a lot of years for a corner OF. Interesting to see how much risk the Jays would be willing to take to sign him. Bichette, especially if the Red Sox get Marte, might become the more realistic (and reasonable contract-wise) option.

Easy to see a stack of positives and negatives for each of Bo & Tucker. In both cases a big thing is what does each want to accomplish in their careers? Most at their level dream of the HOF. For Bo staying in Toronto is probably his best path as one team players get a bump (thus part of why José Ramírez stayed in Cleveland). Tucker has lost that already, and with sub 1000 hits and sub 150 homers I doubt he can make it. With WAR he is closing in on 30, so 60 is possible (the standard for HOF consideration normally) which is achievable anywhere, but the question is what team would bat him early and set him up for success. The Dodgers would likely bat him lower than the Jays (2nd for the Jays, 5th probably for the Dodgers with Ohtani and Freeman both better LH bats than him). Also does he want to just get it over with and sign a 10 year deal now, or does he want to maximize cash (getting $300+ mil almost certainly if he signs a 10+ year deal) at the risk of blowing it (see Juan González for a nightmare case - 8/$140 offered, said no, made under $40 mil instead).

Rule 5 draft incoming.

Santander's contract value is below market. I would never look at 1 outlier year and pretend that that's the expected performance of the player moving forward. Similar to Dylan Cease or any other player with deferred payments, one must look at the value relative to other market contracts and the payroll hit. If you want to believe Cease is making over 200 million, that Ohtani is making over 700 million and Santander is making over 90 million then you're always going to see an overpaid player. Santander likely would still be a free agent if he didn't agree to sign a deal that costs the team 7.2 - 11.8 million annually after deferments. Yes in fact these players are all making the higher amounts "at the end of the day," but as soon as you relate their total pay with deferments to payroll then you're using a higher number to make a situation look worse than it is.

Santander made about 2.7 million more last year then Myles Straw. He made almost 1.5 million less than Gimenez and 6 million less than Scherzer. He was barely ahead of Dominguez, IKF and Rodriguez in salary against payroll last year. He made less than Chad Green... he's not a problem on payroll unless you think he's going to have another shoulder/hip issue and be useless again.

If he is healthy and plays like he normally does I'm 2026 he will easily earn his payroll hit to the team. I'm more concerned about guys like Rodriguez and Berrios eating up salary. If you wanna say he's too one dimensional and eats up a roster spot that could be better used for flexibility then I've got no defense for that.

Santander might cost us Bo unfortunately.

Pete Alonso to the Orioles is a surprise

Alonso to the Orioles for 5 years, $155M.

Alonso a tiny tick under Vladdy's AAV, from age 31-35.

Think Orioles will likely use Mayo to trade for pitching now (Edward Cabrera?). I don't think this is going to be a good contract for Orioles but they look a lot better right now. Still a few big bats available. Really only four biggish names on offense left in Tucker, Bregman, Bo, and Bellinger. Think Red Sox most likely on Bregman and Jays most likely on Tucker/Bo but only getting one. Think Mets might get Bellinger now since they lost a ton of offense.

The Schwarber and Alonso contracts exceed what Fangraphs predicted for them. Fangraphs predicted 3/105 for Schwarber and 4/120 for Alonso.

This suggests that the Bo and Tucker contracts are going to be pretty large, perhaps exceeding the valuation that the Blue Jays assign to those players. Fangraphs projected 7/203 for Bo and 10/370 for Tucker.

Jays select Spencer Miles a pitcher from SF. Miles has pitched 7 innings in the last three years. He will fit in with Tiedemann and Barriera (joke).

Jays did not lose anyone in the rule 5 draft.

Miles lost time to back surgery and to Tommy John.

Miles 7 innings did not include this years fall league where he threw 8.2 innings with 12 K's.

Apparently a sinker that can reach 98mph, and high spin breakers (low 80s slider, high 70s curve). 
Let's roll the dice.

I love it that they didn't add anyone to the 40 prematurely.

Tucker and Bo have different markets. 
The Mets could go after Tucker, I suppose, but it seems more likely that they will chase Bellinger. I don't see anyone chasing Bichette at this point.

Here's a profile on Spencer Miles from this year's AFL: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/giants-prospect-spencer-miles-makes-arizona-fall-league-debut?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

4 pitches, possible starter. Fastball touched 98; Cutter at 90-93 with good break; Curveball & Changeup. Awfully inexperienced...

Only 1 position player, a catcher picked by the Twins and traded to the Giants. 
It's interesting because it's not possible to hide a pitcher on a 26 roster.
Yet, the Phillies also picked an arm from the Marlins and the Yankees picked one from the Giants, both after the Jays.

Like the add. Relievers are pretty flukey. Get guys with great stuff and see how they do. Let's see how he does in spring and if he looks good, you keep him, if not, return him. Low cost risk.

The Jays picked two players in the minor league phase. These picks are usually to fill out rosters. There were 55 players picked in the minor league phase. The Jays lost no-one which could be a sign of the strength of their system.

Jays picked Hedbert Perez, 22 year old DH type who is just moving from a ball to AA. They also picked Travis Kuhn, a 27 year old reliever who has been in AA for five years.

I don't think it matters much. The real upside at AAA is from guys signed to minor deals like Earnie.

At the same time, Perez is only 22. He was a CF but has lost ranged as he's added weight.
I think he's officially a corner outfielder.
He has enough power but doesn't walk enough.

With relievers, you never know.
Kuhn has done well enough in AA to get a shot at the next level.

So, yeah, AAA depth.

So, David Popkins is Baseball America's 2025 coach of the year?

27. Blue Jays — Spencer Miles, RHP, Giants
A 2022 fourth-round pick out of Missouri, Miles has pitched just 14.2 total professional innings in four seasons. He missed all of 2023 with a lumbar facet joint injury and returned in 2024. But after 7.1 innings Miles, tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery in June 2024. He missed all of 2025 and is expected to return in 2026 fully healthy.

When he’s on the mound, Miles shows off a powerful pitch mix led by four-seam and sinking fastballs in the mid 90s. He backs them with a nasty, downer curveball with 11-to-5 shape that he can bury for chases at the end of at-bats. He also has a changeup, but it mostly takes a back seat to the rest of his mix.

Miles pounded the zone in the Arizona Fall League, punching out a dozen and walking just one. His delivery is effortful, and scouts in the AFL noted that he sometimes had trouble driving the ball down through the zone and that his current mechanics might put undue amounts of stress on his shoulder.

Hedbert Perez is the son of former Blue Jay Robert Perez.

Does anyone know if SF Giants might have anything the Jays might want to trade for Berrios?

Matt Chapman. That would be funny.

dalimon5 - at first I laughed at that, then I checked.

Chapman - owed $125.8 mil over 5 years/ages 33-37 (so decline expected) after a 4.1 bWAR injury year (128 games) which followed a 7.1 year his first SF season.
Berrios - owed $68.1 mil over 3 years, ages 32-34 after a 1.3 bWAR season. Still eating innings with a 102 ERA+. SF had 4 regular decent starters then a ton of crap.

No idea if SF has any good prospects coming up who can cover 3B. But if they want to improve pitching and not worry about Chapman aging then this could work for them. Jays would see this as a plan D after signing Bo or trading for Marte or signing Bregman. Not a good fit, but it could work if one squints enough. I think it is very unlikely, that the Jay will need to find another place to send Berrios, or to get someone else for him. That money for Chapman would be better spent on Bo IMO.

It was a joke...I don't see any trade match with SF.

I posted a few months ago (maybe?) a list of players that I could see Berrios being traded for. They were all in similar situations with heavy contracts but I can't find that post. Instead, when I search for my username, Berrios and this site (www.battersbox.ca) on google -- as someone recommended I do next time I wanted to find an older post -- I found this:

"The user "dalimon5" is a commenter on the online forum Batter's Box Interactive Magazine, where the current status and trade potential of José Berríos's contract are frequent topics of discussion. Berríos is currently playing under a seven-year, $131 million extension with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Discussion on Battersbox.ca
On the Batter's Box Interactive Magazine forums, the user "dalimon5" has participated in threads discussing Berríos's future with the team. The general consensus in recent discussions is that the contract may have become a burden due to Berríos's declining performance and potential injury concerns in late 2025, making a trade difficult unless the Blue Jays include cash or take on another large contract.

Commenters, including "dalimon5," have noted:
Berrios's potential departure seems likely given his recent performance and the team's rotation depth.
The looming full no-trade protection in mid-2026 adds urgency to any potential trade talks.
The contract's structure, particularly the opt-out clause, creates a "no-win scenario" for a potential acquiring team: if he pitches well he leaves, if he pitches poorly he stays and collects the remaining guaranteed money. "

AI sucks

Found it dalimon5 - don't give me a challenge.

• Sonny Gray - gone to Boston
• Eduardo Rodriguez with 57 million over 3 years
• Joe Musgrove who has 40 million remaining and 2 years and is coming back from arm injury
• $57 million left to pay Josh Hader for 3 years. No way HOU is looking to clear him but if you can make a solid offer for him and include Berrios somehow in that deal it would be a big win
• Luis Severino in Oakland with 42 million left on 2 years

Harder is the only one that really interests me there. SD could use the stability of Berrios vs the injured Musgrove and if Musgrove came back mid-season he might be well timed for any injuries/ineffectiveness that hits the rotation here. Each has some pluses and minuses but getting a starter for Berrios isn't an ideal match imo.

Harder is a damn good closer though - but to get him you'd have to pay a high price for him, plus something to cover the cost of Berrios.

It used to be easy to find underwater contracts to match up, but now it is getting harder as teams are either more careful or signing insanely long ones that you just can't match up with.

dalimon5: I see John Northey found your post. A better way of google searching here would be: site:battersbox.ca dalimon5

You could add terms like Berrios, trade, etc. Quotes work too.

Thanks for finding and for the insight guys. Funny I thought I had a Buxton/Correa trade in there too.

This is what Eric Longenhagen says about the Spencer Miles Rule 5 pick (from ungated Fangraphs article):

Miles went undrafted when he was first eligible as a sophomore in 2021 and went in the fourth round in 2022 after posting an ERA over 6.00 at Mizzou. Back and elbow issues have cost him all but a few weeks of the last few regular seasons; he has thrown just 14.2 affiliated innings since turning pro. But when Miles has been healthy, he’s looked like a potential mid-rotation starter. Working during 2025 Instructional League and in the Arizona Fall League, Miles was sitting 94-97, topping out at 98, and bending in four distinct pitches, several of which flash plus. Some of his fastballs have hellacious tailing action, while some of his low-90s cutters dart in the opposite direction with equally nasty length, and on occasion, Miles will also show you a good changeup and curveball. His delivery isn’t overly violent and he has fine feel for location (especially of his fastball), but his injury track record suggests he was probably always going to be a reliever, which is all but a done deal now that he’s a Jay. He might be worth stretching back out as a starter in 2027 if he ends up making Toronto’s roster and sticks as a reliever in 2026. — EL

".. about his ability to maintain a high batting value as his bat speed and overall quickness declines .."

This has been the prevailing sentiment about Bo for years, and the defensive/foot speed concerns notwithstanding, the bat speed commentary has never made sense. Bo has never had much bat speed. This past season, his bat speed ranked in the 12th percentile, which is, well, not great Bob!

yeah i never knew where this whole "bat speed" argument came from or how it ever applied to Bo in particular.

bat speed is something more closely associated with pure power hitters.

Jeff Blaire and Barker seem to think the Jays are going to get Tucker and Suarez in relief. Blair is obviously connected with the industry from his time as a journalist and Barker is close with Peter Walker and John Schneider.

Baltimore signing Alonso is strange to me. The organization has spent most of its recent draft capital on high-ceiling position players, while the pitching side of the ledger is pretty bleak. I would have expected their offense to improve this year through simple internal progression from its budding stars, and I am not sure a 31-year-old 1B (non-Freddie Freeman category) is going to have quite the impact they expect. Unless the thought is that it will free up some young talent to trade for pitching?

Well, no Robert Suarez here. He just sign 3/$45 with Atlanta.

In a few years, will Bo still have the ability to fight off and/or collect hits off tough pitches way out of the zone, the way he does now? It seems to me that, while he is able to get to those pitches now, sometimes he is only barely able to do so, and it’s not clear to me that he’ll continue to be able to do this as the years go by. That could impact his overall value, since he’s not someone who takes pitches and walks a lot, and almost all of his value comes from his hitting.

Jeff Passan said last night that he thinks the Jays definitely have a chance to sign Bo and Tucker.

Shi Davidi said this morning that agents were saying that Suarez was the Jays top priority target...

It's almost like some think Bo's elite contact ability is a weakness, not a strength.

Luis Arraez also has elite contact ability. Unfortunately he’s not good anymore.

If Suarez was Toronto's top priority, maybe they'll have to settle for Kyle Tucker as the consolation prize.

Relievers are funny things - they can emerge fast and skip tons of the minors (see Osuna) and be effective. Their arms might blow out, but for a year or more they can be useful. I'm guessing that is what the Jays see with Miles and probably Bastardo as well. Both are rule 5 guys who need to stick for 90+ days then can spend the rest of the season on the IL with a hangnail or something although as I understand it MLB has become a lot pickier on that stuff.

Right now on the 40 man (outside of likely 26 so the 14 man backup squad) there are 9 pitchers, 2 outfielders, and a catcher with 2 slots open. I think the Jays need to let go of a few of those pitchers soon. Not much choice in spring as Bruihl is out of options, and Bastardo and Miles are mandatory roster items. No options for Nance, Lauer, Berrios, Garcia, Hoffman (a few of those are 'duh no kidding' obviously). Ponce does have an option left, but I'd be shocked if it is used. You don't spend $10 mil to give Buffalo another starter.

dalimon5 - if the Jays sign Bo & Tucker I'd be very, very shocked. That would be around $60 mil a year for the 2 of them. It'd make the team very deep and overcrowded.

C/IF: Kirk-Vlad-Bo-Barger/Clement-Gimenez OF/DH: Santander-Varsho-Tucker-Springer Bench: Heinemann, Schneider, one of Barger/Clement, Straw. Leaving Lukes in AAA and Jimenez being waived goodbye (out of options). Lukes, Schneider, Barger have an option each left (Schneider 2), both Loperfido and Clase have an option left too (Clase was listed without any earlier, but it seems he does have 1 left).

Btw, on my list earlier, there are 10 pitchers on the 40 man outside of the 13 expected to be on the team (I missed Bloss as he was listed as injured).

Arraez's elite contact ability is almost singularly tied to his refusal ever to swing hard, and I mean literally ever. As a result, his EVs and hard-hit rates have been bottom of the league throughout his career. He might be the President of the Punch and Judy Hitter fan club. He is not a good comparison for Bichette.

The point is that elite contact ability doesn’t guarantee elite performance going forward. Garciaparra is another example of a high-contact, elite middle infield player who could not sustain his performance. He fell apart after his age-29 season, partly due to multiple injuries (something that has become an issue for Bichette in recent seasons).

I like Bichette a lot as a player, but I think we should be intellectually honest about the future risks he presents.

Bo obviously isn't a slap hitter like Arraez. And Arraez' defense makes Bo look like a gold glover. That's why Bo's been worth double over their similar size careers.

A better comp for Bo is a guy like Trea Turner:

Turner (22-27): 2382pa, 7.6bb%, 18.1k%, .339babip, .296avg, .353obp, .184iso, 119wrc+
Bichette (21-27): 3292pa, 5.7bb%, 19.4k%, .339babip, .294avg, .337obp, .175iso, 122wrc+


and yep, now 5yrs later, Trea is still a very good hitter.

Bo is Elite as a hitter and pretending that he is a risk is silly. Tucker is elite in some aspects and pretending he is a risk is the same. Vlad is elite in certain things and pretending he is a risk is also silly. Basically, every free agent contract past the age of 31/32 is a risk. If you're investing in a contract to win a WAR formula then they're all bad investments and extremely risky, but the best teams that avoid risk and make great investments almost never make it to the world series.

Bo is risky, true. He WILL decline, true. He's also absolutely elite as a hitter and leads the league virtually every year in hits and someone will pay him well and they will be much better as a team for the next 2, 3, 4, 5 years or more. It's the teams job to keep a window extended and there's no chance to extend anything if you don't have a window to begin with...

we definitely need to be intellectually honest, greengfrog.


one part of that intellectual honesty would be not cherry picking one or two names that don't profile similarly to BO that didn't sustain performanace and taking that as a rule, given that there are obviously countless examples of players of every type falling off significantly.


Bo isn't a slap hitter like Arraez (with his sub-.100 iso), and not a power hitter like Nomar either (consistently in the .250iso range in his younger years).

Besides, Nomar's performance wasn't even bad. Over his 5yrs after age 27:

Nomar (28-32): 2536pa, 121wrc+

and that's with, as you admit, major injury problems. this is also ignoring suspicions of steroid use during those young power years.

It’s like, how many elite seasons did David Price have after 2015? One, maybe two? Being good now doesn’t guarantee being good for the next 5-10 years.

Nomar was a bit odd there for 28-32. 28/29 MVP type level (6+ bWAR each year, 120's OPS+), 30 OK 1.3 bWAR 123 OPS+ just 81 games, 31-end cracked 2 WAR once, 100 OPS+ 1.8 bWAR overall over 425 games. So if Bo follows that we'd get 2 WOW years and 2 so-so years with any others being unplayable. Given he wants an 8+ year deal that means half the contract is 100% underwater so for the 4 decent to great years you'd be paying $50 mil a year basically. Bo's best year was a 5.9 bWAR, vs the 4 6+'s Nomar gave the Red Sox before age 28.

Now, the question is who is most similar to Bo. By age he has Corey Seager for 23 & 26, Troy Tulowitzki for ages 24/25. They haven't put age 27 up yet in BR but I wouldn't be surprised if Seager is still #1, Jhonny Peralta was #2 but he had a horrid age 27 season so he'll drop, #3 Javier Báez (injured at 27 just 59 games). It is interesting to dig in a bit - the formula used isn't perfect by any means but it is fun to look at. Note: Semien after age 27 was a sub 100 OPS+ guy every year, then at 28 jumped to a 139, dropped back to 89 then came here and had another 131 and in Texas has been a 106-126-103-97 OPS+ guy since. Moving to 2B seems to have energized him and made him a better player. 3.3 to 7.7 bWAR is his range in 2021-2026 (age 30-34 when most players drop fast). I see Semien as a 'best case' even though Bo was a far better hitter pre-age 28 than Semien was. If for age 28-34 Bo has a 117 OPS+ and 36.7 bWAR he'll be a near HOF'er and might be close enough to get there with just a touch more in year 8 of his contract. But who knows? I'd be shocked if he ages well given his disappearing speed. I could see him going to 2B for a few years, then needing to move to LF/DH once Santander is gone, possibly giving his bat a revival if it isn't going as well at that point.

"It’s like, how many elite seasons did David Price have after 2015? One, maybe two? Being good now doesn’t guarantee being good for the next 5-10 years."

I feel like you're looking at the value of a contract as if it is dependant on each year a player is paid. It's like Vlad. Pay him 40 million a year for the next 6 years then release him. That's an assessment of the worth of a player based on an excel sheet inside a vacuum. Once you introduce a market that evaluation is irrelevant if you want the player as the goal posts move and the question becomes "will this move pay off for us?" rather than "are we going to pay WAR market rate or less for every year of the deal.

There's so many ways to break down investment and ROI and looking at one contract, one player, year by year is the worse way to do it in my opinion. Baseball is a team game after all. If Vlad gets paid 10 million more/year than you want ideally but Yesavage and Barger make 12 million/year less than they should then isn't that a case of making the team better overall both on field and with budget?

You have to look at things totally. Even Arraez is a player that can be an asset to teams. Imagine if the Blue Jays had another closer to use this season. Imagine if they didn't need to bring in Bieber with a sore arm, Bassitt and Yesavage on short rest. How much is that worth to a team or does it not matter at all because everything has to look good on a unit basis. ie. "every player deal has to be a calculation commensurate with WAR - which itself is a metric more and more people are questioning.

Michael Plassmeyer signed to a minor league contract. 29 year old LH starter.

Not a lot of good comps for Bo but Arraez doesn't make any sense. Arraez is pure batting average guy. I have concerns with Bo but id also love him back. I'm not sentimental about players ( I don't get trying to shoe-horn Chris Bassit into the rotation for example). I just think Bo is a great fit if he's willing to move to 2B. Mike Petriello had a great piece on MLB.Com on Bo showing how much value he'd have if he moved to 2B.

Weak shortstop (2025, in reality): 3.8 WAR
As an average shortstop: 4.9 WAR
As an elite second baseman: 5.7 WAR
As a solid second baseman: 4.8 WAR
As an average second baseman: 4.3 WAR
As a bad second basemen: 3 WAR

Move him to second, hope he's an average or better 2Bman and you've got a 4-5 WAR player. That's super valuable.

I wonder if Bo is putting off signing until sometime in 2026 so that he'll be in a better position to pass a physical. He could barely jog in Oct/Nov.

Ugly, you got any more "hearings," to post for us anti-socialites? I got no X, no FB, no way to check on updates from players or Passan etc other than MLBtraderumors.com and podcasts. I thought that Vlad post on Tucker's page that you shared was pretty cool.

dalimon, I thought this nugget at the end of a recent Sportnet article (on Tucker meeting with Schneider and the Blue Jays) was interesting:

"It was very productive," said Schneider. "Again, great, great player. And it's not a surprise his skillset fits exactly what we're doing. So, we'll see where the next couple weeks lead."

Does the reference to “the next couple weeks” mean that Tucker’s camp indicated they’re planning on making a decision by the end of December?

That is interesting. Reads to me like he told them something along the lines of "well this was great. Give us a few weeks to make the rounds and circle back before Christmas."

I love that they signed Cease so fast to get the heavy lifting of the rotation out of the way. Bo Bichette is awesome and perfect for this team at 2B. I don't know though, I am just a sucker for a strong power hitter from the left side with good overall approach. I heard that Tucker felt he lost some HRs from his total hitting in Wrigley.

Also, one of Jim Bowden’s takeaways from the winter meetings (mentioned in The Athletic today) is that “Toronto has more moves coming” and “Now they are focused on signing either Tucker or Bichette and remain in play for a reliever like Pete Fairbanks. They know they were inches from a World Series championship and are determined to do what it takes to win it all in 2026.”

Trea Turner isn't a bad comp for Bichette offensively, but the difference is Turner is a great base runner with 100 percentile sprint speed and at age 32 is coming off a +17 OAA season as a SS. Bichette at age 27 had a -13 OAA at SS and 21 percentile sprint speed, and both of those stats were before he messed up his knee. The level of risk there is very different.

I wouldn't be against bringing Bo back, especially if the contract isn't super long, but I think there are far more pro's in Tucker's favor. If the contract disparity is not massive (ex. Bo at 6 years and Tucker at 10 would be a big difference), then Tucker is the more appealing player to me.

Get one of Bo or Tucker and Fairbanks and I'd say outside of minor tune-ups this winter is done. By tune-ups I mean clearing up the OF glut and the reliever glut to try to add better quality to the pen. I'd happily trade Lukes-Loperfido-Nance-Little and Berrios (if they'd take him) for 1 solid LH reliever. The Jays have very little use for those guys going forward and all have earned ML time, but not necessarily time on the Jays roster. Loperfido, Clase, and Schreck are the AAA backups right now for the OF with Pinango, 2 Browns (Dasan & Devonte), and others hanging around. Really no reason to keep so many guys around who won't start anytime soon here. Especially if the Jays sign Tucker or Bellinger, or trade for Kwan or another OF.

This is all so weird.

Bo literally just had his BEST offensive season, with no unsustainable outlier component stats hidden inside, is as young a free agent as you'll ever get a chance to sign, and you guys are talking about his certain decline.

i can give you a million examples of Bo-caliber hitters who saw no significant decline until well into their 30s - in fact i already have here before.

Shapiro has officially been extended for 5 years.

And Bo had that offensive season despite his speed completely vanishing. Oh ya, he also hit an enormous 3-run HR in Game 7 of the World Series against the best player ever.

I have yet to see a silly number thrown around with respect to Bichette's contract. The predictions all seem incredibly reasonable, numbers the Jays absolutely need to be in on.

Some of us (like me) lean Tucker, others lean Bo. But I suspect most of us would be very happy if they added either player.

Get me some Kyle Tucker news!!!

That took longer than expected.

I'd be happy with either Bo or Tucker. Tucker is better player but Bo will be cheaper and Bo is still very good. Need to get one though. (why not both?)

I read last night that the Diamondbacks had been offered Shane Baz and Pepiot for Ketel Marte which I thought was a strong offer. The article mentioned that the Diamondbacks had another offer with a "name" pitcher in the package. Just got me wondering. Couldn't think of any "name" pitcher with controllable years or young age comparable to the Rays pitchers. Then I wondered "Yesavage?" but dismissed the idea because he's not a "name," or is he? Also am I crazy to think that's an overpay by the Jays?

Just mindless musing from me. Feel free to ignore and not to comment.

As long as the Jays end up with at least one of Bo or Tucker, then I think most will be happy. Signing both would be great but probably not likely (or practical from a payroll standpoint).

Hard to imagine that the Jays would trade Yesavage. Marte is great, maybe if they took Berrios too or sent us Geraldo Perdomo instead. Heh. That'd get the phone hung up fast.

It's a hard no from to put out Yesavage's name in a trade unless it was a blockbuster. The Jay's biggest need the last few years was good, young starting pitching that is cheap. It allows other parts of the roster to be filled out with pricier players and starting pitchers usually command big salaries if they're good.

on the other hand, there's a non-zero chance this might be the peak of Yesavage's value.

Cease and Ponce are most likely to be at their peak value.
Yesavage has dominated everybody up to the World Series and the Jays would have won if he he'd had another inning in him.
And he cost nothing.
And it's not like there are red flags with Yesavage. 

His numbers are better in the big leagues than above A ball. Even in his big league appearances he walks more guys than you'd like to see. He was, to my eye, lucky to have come out of the playoffs looking like he does now. He seems a lot more like a younger version of Cease than the Jays' ace.

If the goal is winning a world series in 2026, then I would, in a heartbeat, trade him for either Skubal or DeGrom or other superstars on the position side.

If the Jays' plan is to try and win 92 games each year, then it would likely make sense to try and extract value from his pre-arb years and hope he continues to develop and finds greater command, and that the legaue continues to be more stymied by him than minor leaguers were.

“Skubal or DeGrom or other superstars”

29-year-old Skubal posted 6.6 fWAR (6.5 bWAR) in 2025.

37-year-old deGrom posted 3.4 fWAR (2.9 bWAR) in 2025.

And that’s not even broaching the topic of injury history.

They are in two completely different categories when it comes to player value (in my opinion).

The Blue Jays have traded for Chase Lee, a controllable sidearm sinker/slider RP who doesn’t throw hard but has posted good BB/K rates. They gave up Johan Simon for him, per MLBTR.

I’m actually OK with the Blue Jays going cheap on the bullpen refurbishing if it means they can add Tucker.

Sounds like Lee might be the 2026 equivalent of Sandlin — a somewhat underrated RP who gets decent results without velocity and who could be effective in innings 6 or 7, depending on the matchups/situation.

I'm never opposed to trading anyone even Yesavage if the value is right but with Yesavage, it's exactly what Jays need, a cost controlled good young pitcher so hard to see a trade that makes sense.

I am 100% fine with lots of bullpen experiments. Relievers are unpredictable and some guys will develop nicely. Much rather be spending big on a hitter.

Between the start of the season and the end of July DeGrom made 21 starts and gave up more than 2 runs 2 times. He throws as hard as ever and the stuff grades out as such. This is his first full season off TJ, and he flagged on the back end. He's had the same number of elbow surgeries as Ohtani and the last one he had he was healthy for 6 full seasons without issue. He just demonstrated his health.

He's a game 1 starter and would immediately become the best pitcher they've had on the roster since Halladay. He is signed beyond next year whereas Skubal probably costs more than Yesavage despite only being a one-year rental/situationship. I didn't say they were identical in trade value, but if your goal is to win in 2026, they are certainly players I would prefer to have as presumed starters and it's not particularly close IMO

I don't think Chase Lee is a major leaguer tbh. Not sure why we'd use a 40 man spot on him.

deGrom did have a good season, but 38-year-old pitchers are risky and it seems reasonable to think deGrom is riskier than most pitchers in that respect. It’s not like he’s a 24-year-old coming off TJ surgery.

In the end, he pitched 172.2 innings in 2025 and faltered towards the end of the season. I’m not sure that is someone you can count on to hold down a rotation spot and then dominate in multiple postseason series. He hasn’t pitched 200 innings since 2019.

Not to be too bleak, but at some point soon his career as a strong SP is going to come to an end.

Lee has 2 options left.
There's always a need for a few relievers with options on the 40 roster.
They like having different looks in the pen.

There's Skubal and Skenes...





Then deGrom and other good to great starters




Then everyone else.

of course there is risk to trading for a guy that is about to be 38. however, DeGrom is somewhat unique. he has far fewer innings on his arm than guys his age typically do and it was just repaired and shown to work really well over 2/3 of a season. i think the Jays just showed they can load manage an aging starter and get value out of them.

on top of that, he's throwing HARDER than he was during his prime (unless you count 2020-2021 as his prime), and in the 9Xth percentile of fastball velo still and, according to him, that's him dialing it back.

compare this to Verlander whose FB has been declining since 2022 and with it, his ability to do what he always has.

You should be comparing him to Skubal not Verlander. Greenfrog has already shown the discrepancy of this comparison using WAR. The reality is that deGrom is too expensive and unreliable which is what makes Skubal so great. Also, his stuff is not as good as Skubal or Skenes. It just isn't, because he's a lot older.

He's a very good pitcher at the end of a career. Skubal is a better pitcher, a superstar in the prime of his career about to break the record next year for richest pitcher in history.

Skenes is probably better than either of them ever will be if he continues to improve.

You can probably get Skubal for a haul built around Yesavage. deGrom could probably be gotten for a package around Tiedemann or Stanifer. Skenes you could probably get for Barger, Yesavage, Nimmala, Stanifer and that's if the Pirates owner is willing to jink his team for eternity and even then it's still a long shot.

Don't think Degrom is close to those guys. I'd have Crochet next but also probably 10-20 other guys including Cease, ahead of Degrom. He's 38 and has pitched 100 IP+ once in last six years. He had a 3.64 FIP last year. His K rate dropped a ton. He's trying to stay healthy which makes sense, but he isn't that same insanely dominant guy he was a few years back.

My comparison to Verlander is because that's another guy that aged out of being an elite fastball pitcher. but Verlander was already slowing down before his TJ. DeGrom is speeding up relative to his late 20s. It's unprecedented. his stuff is getting *better* - the last time we saw this was when Clemens pitched here. Clemens put up a 7.8 rWAR at age 42, Randy Johnson also had huge years into his 40s. I don't get why people don't class DeGrom with these guys other than he got hurt in 2021 putting up a 373 ERA+ season as a STARTER. He was on pace for the greatest season we've seen and he still has the same stuff to do that. He's going into next year with the all-time best K/BB rate.

He has potentially 4 elite pitches, and for sure still has 2 of them. What does another winter of recovery and rehab hold? If the Jays can avoid relying on him every 5 days like the Rangers *needed* to, then it might be the ideal fit for a guy that probably wants playoff success as part of his HoF resume. It sure looks like the Rangers are currently outclassed by two teams in their division, and they don't appear to be major players in free agency this year. He'd be an ideal deadline target. The issue is that the expanded playoffs mean that the Rangers resemble the Jays of the past 2 decades - trying to sell hope to fans while being 5-10 games out in July.

Jays get Tyler Rogers for 3/$37. Wow. A very good.and funky pitcher but that's a lot for a non-closer.

Not liking this move much tbh.

2020 - COVID; 2021 - DeGrom on pace for best year ever and gets hurt. Mets/player decide to avoid surgery. This led to him getting compensatory injuries and the elbow needing the knife.

DeGrom is still elite, in my view. I think the advanced stats don't like the decline in k/9, but as I said earlier in this thread he started the year 19/20 outings with 2 or fewer runs. Cease is another AJ Burnett guy that there's a 50% chance he has command that night. DeGrom is the all time leader in K/BB and he isn't walking more guys.

I want to see playoff DeGrom, and I think everyone should hope that if we do see that, it isn't against Jays hitters. There's one sure way to make sure that doesn't happen.

Thumbs down on that signing.

Rogers is definitely different. His Statcast page is hilarious. Like a lot of 100th and first percentiles. Hitters just cannot square up his stuff. He Always outperforms his FIP because quality of contact is so bad. I also think Rogers after Yesavage might be the biggest arm angle change in history.

If this team can afford guys like Ponce and Rogers they better be able to afford Bichette.

Skubal is nutty expensive in trade without a doubt - you'd be looking at the Jays selling the farm to get him - minimum Yesavage, Tiedemann, and King. Minimum unless the Tigers are run by a dumb GM.

deGrom - if Texas is cutting payroll he might be cheap, as in assorted relievers and a couple 11th-20th prospects cheap (RJ Schreck level). He makes $75 mil the next 2 years, then an option year at $37 mil (conditional club or player options, based on performance and health) for age 38/39 seasons option is for age 40. Few guys outside of the PED era have been good at 40. So I could see Texas going 'crap need to dump while we can' after reading this article. No idea if it is accurate, but it suggests they need to cut, and deGrom would be seen as a luxury item - he is what the Dodgers normally chase - a guy who gets hurt but if healthy for the playoffs could be the difference between a title and going home empty handed. The problem with that is we have a full rotation+ already. He'd be a guy they'd go after next winter if it looks like Bieber, Gausman, and Berrios are gone with no kids ready yet. I could imagine a deal that sends Bieber there with Berrios (reduces their payroll, keeps a solid rotation going forward as they need arms) and maybe a minor prospect or backup guy the Jays don't require (Loperfido, Nance, Bastardo, whatever).

Chase Lee is an interesting one - high HR/9, good K/9, solid BB/9. Not sure why the Jays went and got him to be honest, outside of being a decent guy for the Buffalo shuttle with his 2 options left.

Signing Tyler Rogers for 3/$37 mil seems very odd - just happened. Low K, low BB, low HR guy (RH sidearmer) - 12 holds, 1 blown save last year. Looks like a damn fine setup guy, but overpaid at over $12 mil per. He wasn't on my radar at all. Doesn't seem like the type they typically sign, but should be useful. Very different look from everyone else, sub 2 ERA last year, 2.76 ERA lifetime, 3.31 FIP over 424 IP - looks like a rubber arm with 4 times leading the league in games pitched, plus 2 years with 68 games not leading. Very different indeed.

Rogers has also been the most durable reliever in baseball (I assume because submarine is easier on arm). He's thrown at least 70 IP in 5 straight years. He's thrown 40 more innings than any other RP in that time. So very good and very durable reliever. Bullpen now looks like:

Hoffman, Varland, Garcia, Rogers, Fisher, Lauer, and then a bunch of other guys for two spots.

Rogers is an interesting move. He’ll certainly present a contrast to the others in the pen.

Looking at his game logs, he’s a one-inning pitcher who can pitch a tonne — 81 games in 2025 — without walking anyone or giving up home runs. That has value. But the team still needs to find a reliable closer. Maybe they’ll go after one more arm, someone like Fairbanks.

I hope this move doesn’t mean the entire off-season is going to be about pitching, with no significant position player added. Still hoping for a Tucker signing.

These latest signings either mean the Jays have far more cash than we knew, or they are filling up everywhere to ensure they can be ready for a no-Bo season.

Y'know, the more of these oddities - Rogers 3/$37, Cody Ponce 3/$30 - the more I wonder if the budget is insane and that is what Shapiro demanded to get him to sign on for 5 more years. Lets hope so. If so then we might see Tucker and Bichette here. The more I look the more I think Berrios must be close to being dealt away with minimal cash eaten outside of taking on a lower bad contract or giving up a prospect to balance out the cash.

The pen is overflowing now too.

Hoffman-Garcia-Varland-Rogers-Little-Lauer (6 of 8 slots) I can't see being cut (Varland & Little both have an option left). Final 2 slots are currently Nance (0 options) and Berrios. AAA has rule 5's Miles-Bastardo (both need to be on the roster or are gone), Fisher, Fluharty, Lee, Bruihl (0 options), Schultz - all decent options for the back of a pen. I could see Lauer being dangled as teams need starters and he is too good for the pen after last year imo - he should be worth something in trade, even if it is just to counter the overpaid aspect of Berrios. If nothing is done to clean up the pen then those last 2 slots could be very boring (2 long men who should be starting) or a battle royal between rule 5 guys and a lot of guys who deserve ML slots.

I feel like more people need to check out Rogers’ statcast page:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tyler-rogers-643511

A lot of dark red. A lot.

Could be a nepotism signing. A long-lost cousin of Ed Rogers.

I think the Jays like to have pitchers with different deliveries to stop hitters getting comfortable against one type. That's my theory.

"Hoffman, Varland, Garcia, Rogers, Fisher, Lauer, and then a bunch of other guys for two spots."

Remember they have Bastardo and Miles, Tiedeman returning at some point and Rodriguez in the minors not to mention Stanifer and King likely knocking by August/September. That's more than a lot of arms. It makes me think one of two scenarios is happening:

1) Most of their pitchers are injured or on limited IP: Gausman sore from lots of IP, Bieber dealing with soreness, Berrios dealing with soreness, Tiedemann's setback, Yesavage innings limit, Garcia still not 100%, Hoffman sore (Jekyl/Hyde)

or

2) They plan to trade SP to acquire bats because they don't anticipate signing Tucker or Bo. That would mean trading away from guys like Yesavage, Tiedemann and Lauer.

John you could be right and the Jays could be dipping into Ed's treasure chest or you could be wrong and they may be quadrupling down on pitching and defense.

Another factor that may have contributed to the signing: hitters tend to put the ball in play against Rogers (he gives up few walks and amasses few strikeouts) and the Blue Jays have a very good defense.

I don't like the Rogers deal. I won't suggest he's not any good or won't be any good but that's a lot of money and years for a soft tossing 34 year old. I'd much rather the FO took his salary and Ponce's salary and gave it to Edwin Diaz instead.

Giants fans are sorry to see him go. They have a lot of high praise for him and are saying the Blue Jays got a good one.

Soft-tossing *35 year old* for three years... he's had success but the AL East is a whole different ball game.

Not a fan - too much for a seventh-inning guy and you're still stuck with Hoffman. A few million more could have gotten Suarez.

Suarez is almost exactly the same age as Rogers. And maybe more likely to break down over the next year or two.

If the Blue Jays don’t add a closer now, they could look to do this at the trade deadline and make a Bednar-type acquisition.

Rogers seems more like a guy who can help them get to the postseason by pitching a lot of quality innings over the course of the long regular season.

or maybe do something crazy like...don't use anyone like a "closer".

Rogers is a good pitcher. No complaints there but I’d rather be packaging some payroll together to get an impact bat. As an aside, the history of large dollar reliever contracts isn’t good.

"or maybe do something crazy like...don't use anyone like a "closer"."

Kinda hilarious because true. People forget how many games this team blew and how bad Hoffman looked 50% of the time.

That's more than I thought he would get, but Rogers was my favourite non-closer on the market and I'm glad they signed him.

However you want to describe him, as seventh inning guy or whatnot, no other reliever has as many relief appearances or holds as he has had over the past six seasons. He's equally effective against hitters from either side of the plate. As another poster said, there's a lot of red ink all over his Savant page.

In other news Danny Jansen inks with the Rangers eating up 7million of their estimated $20m in spending money.

John Schneider will never do a bullpen by committee. Whoever the "closer" is next season will be the closer all season. That's just how he operates. With that said, this is a very unsexy signing. Maybe it will turn out ok, but just feels like an overpay given Rogers' age and profile. As long as he can keep getting outs at an elite level then I guess that's all we can hope for. Not like we have to worry about a loss of velocity hurting him like we would have for Suarez over a 3 year deal.

I still think Tiderman or Stanifer could be great closers by years end.

I wonder if Schneider will use Rogers in more than 81 games next year. I could see that happening. Rogers will be a staple in the 7th and 8th innings.

Giants fans are saying he’s a terrific 8th inning setup man, but not good in the 9th, and especially not good in extra innings with the ghost runner on second base. Will John Schneider heed that warning? We shall see.

The soft tossing sidearmers have done well in Toronto, Cimber, Smith, etc.
Suarez is no different than Hoffman and could have have given up a lot of homeruns in the AL East.

I think it works because they added velo to the rotation.

Should be entertaining.

SP1 RH Cease
SP2 RH Gausman
SP3 RH Bieber
SP4 RH Yesavage
SP5 RH Berrios


RP1 RH Hoffman
RP2 RH Varland
RP3 RH Rogers
RP4 RH Ponce (SP depth)
RP5 LH Lauer (SP depth)
RP6 LH Fluharty
RP7 LH Little
RP8 RH Garcia
RP9 RH Fisher
RP10 LH Tiedemann (SP depth)


RP11 RH Nance
RP12 RH Lee
RP13 RH Rodriguez

I just view him as our new Eichhorn. I loved that guy.

I bet ownership has no problem with paying a guy named Rogers.

Love that statcast page - wow on the red all over, average exit velocity top 1%, hard hit ball top 5%, top 1% in BB, top 4% in xERA. I mean, WOW. Him and Varland with their rubber arms should be sweet for Schneider who loves to have guys he can use and use and use. Between those 2 and Hoffman/Garcia games could be over after 5 if the Jays have a lead.

A better LH pitcher would be nice, but there really aren't many high end ones out there in the pen. A lock down closer? Sure, that'd be nice but again not critical imo.

With all the pitching one does wonder if a doubling down on defense is coming. If so then Tucker would work very nicely in RF, leaving Clement at 2B (should win a GG if left there all year), and Barger at 3B (not as good as the others, but with his arm mixed with Vlad we basically have flamethrowers at the corners). The general rule is you want strong defense at C/SS/CF/2B in that order and the Jays basically would have Gold Glove quality at all of them in 2026 if they sign Tucker over Bo. Tucker is that in RF mixed with Varsho in CF. Weakest spots would be LF/3B/1B - Straw covering LF late/close/lead. Expect a quality defensive IF signed to cover 3B late as well (ideally bats right or if bats left can be solid at 2B as well). If Bo is signed instead then 3B is premium with Clement with Barger in RF and 2B is a mystery for us, but odds are the Jays used some advanced readings on Bo's reaction time/talent at 2B during the World Series to help determine if he could handle it going forward.

Quite the winter - like after 1992 lots of changes - Rotation at start of 25 was Gausman-Berrios-Scherzer-Bassitt-Francis. Just Gausman is likely to be in the rotation come opening day this year (plus Cease-Bieber-Yesavage-Ponce) with Berrios being a maybe if someone is hurt. Lineup didn't have Barger last year at the start, Wagner was the DH (and used all over for a bit), Roden was in RF, Bo at SS - none of that will be the case this year - Barger will start, if Bo is resigned it'll be at 2B, Roden/Wagner both are long gone. Then pen? Sandlin-Rodriguez-Green-Barnes-Lovelady all out with Rodriguez trying to earn his way back, Varland, Fisher, Lauer, Rogers all in (plus many other possible options).

Have to think the Blue Jays would like to strike first on Tucker or Bo. If another team signs one of them first, then the other player would have more leverage in negotiations with Toronto, as would any potential trading partners like Cleveland or Arizona (knowing that the Blue Jays need a strong bat to complete their off-season).

The Yankees and Bosox probably wouldn’t go $40 mil/per for Tucker, but both could slot in Bo at $20-25 mil per. Would it still feel like we’d won the offseason if that second domino fell? I’d rather keep the band together.

The later it goes the more I'm wondering if they will do a trade instead. Depends 100% on the price though. Kwan or Marte would work well but the price is probably high in prospects. I could see them signing Bo or Tucker then sitting back and seeing if the other comes down in price by March, or if Cleveland or Arizona comes down in price on their guy come March (depending which spot isn't filled). Not hard to imagine the Jays setting their price for each of the 4 options and seeing if any go for it, not panicking at any stage but just waiting and seeing.

They'll have to DFA someone, Bruihl, probably.

On Tucker, I think it's the number of years that teams are balking at, not the AAV.
7/280M would be easy. 8/320M, maybe, but nobody wants to go 10/400M.

I expect Jays to make some trades (especially with guys who have lost their options) but vastly prefer if big move is a free agent. The system has interesting prospects but if they trade for a Marte sort of guy, it will almost empty the system. Why trade a bunch of prospects for a 32 YO 4.5 WAR player when you can just sign an (almost) 29 YO 4.5 player or an (almost) 28 YO homegrown 4 WAR player who plays same position? Rogers has the money. I don't have a problem trading prospects but don't like it when the same quality is out there for just money.

I agree on skipping a big trade. Just go get either of Bo or Tucker first and keep your farm. I would do 400 million for Tucker with deferments as the Dodgers do with their longer deals.

Probably what's happening is Tucker is waiting on another team to up the price. At the same time Bo is probably refusing to sign until Tucker does (thinking his market will go up if a team misses out on Tucker). So the FO is stuck in a place where they need to overpay for both players and likely can't even do that until those players come back to them and say "I'll sign for x dollars at x years, can you do it?"

Schwarber and Alonso got 5 years each and they're both turning 33 whereas Bo is turning 28. Tucker is turning 29 and for sure will get a 10 year deal since he's 5 years younger than Schwarber and Alonso. Bo I predict teams are offering him long deals at lower AAV.

Tucker was predicted for 11/400 and I'd say that sounds about right. That's 36 million/year compared to Schwarber at 30 million and Alonso at 31 million.

Bo was predicted for 8/208 or 26 million/year.

So Bo probably wants 30 and will settle on the best offer between highest AAV or 10 years. I think he will get 300/10. Or maybe he's waiting for the NYY to trade Volpe and prospects to open up SS.

Either way the market is held up by Tucker. Predictions had him going to the LAD, NYY or Giants.

I don't think the Jays have the prospect capital for Marte unless they trade Yesavage (which they won't/shouldn't), so it's probably a pipe dream. I agree that they are better off just using money on Bo or Tucker. The Jays/Rogers clearly don't mind spending money at this point. Use it to your advantage while it's still here (who knows what the CBA will look like next year).

I still think the Dodgers and Yankees are a big threat to sign Tucker. LAD is awash in cash and may be willing to make another huge acquisition.

The main question is, where does Tucker want to play for the better part of the next decade? Would he prefer Toronto, New York, or LA? It’s like Judge’s free agency a couple of years ago. SD and SF offered him significantly more money, but he wanted to stay in New York.

Bellinger is a better fit than Tucker for the Yankees.

The Dodgers don't really need another corner outfielder who bats left.

Either team will jump on any elite player available at a discount.

And then what are the Mets doing?

Mets add Polanco, 2/$40m. This is good for the Blue Jays, I think (rich teams spending money on FAs other than Bichette and Tucker).

average exit velocity top 1%, hard hit ball top 5%, top 1% in BB, top 4% in xERA.

It's interesting to look at these numbers and contrast it with comments about how he's a "soft-tosser" and "unsexy" and commentators saying thumbs down or that they don't like it.

The Jays made a sexier signing with a hard-throwing reliever with great whiff numbers last offseason and we ended up potentially with more conversation about where he was right for his role or good at his job than any other player on the team.

IMO, he's a better option than Fairbanks, and it's hard to argue there are many non-closer relievers better positioned to be successful over the next couple of years. Also, the Jays infield defence will support a ground-ball heavy approach well.

This isn't a particularly indicative stat for relievers, but I thought it was interesting that Rogers' worst expected ERA over his seven major league seasons was lower than Suarez's expected ERA last year.

Agreed that at this point it is a mix of cash and where to live for Tucker. He will get his money, $30+ mil a year for 11 makes the most sense (be it straight cash or deferred). Jays have the advantage of being able to do a big bonus up front if needed - most clubs won't, as a way to avoid taxes (oddly, tax laws seem to treat a bonus differently than straight pay in the USA and Canada). The Jays have built up a rep for being family friendly which has to help. If I was a mutli-millionaire ballplayer that'd be worth a lot when debating where to play for a decade. Will my wife/kids be happy there? In life a happy family is worth more than salary. Tucker is from/lives in Florida near Dunedin (40 minute drive iirc) which means at least spring training is a plus, the Dodgers are no closer than the Jays for the regular season. Basically no high spending team is close to home for him. Giants, Phillies, NYY, LAD, Jays - all are far from Florida with the Phillies and Yankees having spring homes close by like the Jays do. So imo the Jays are on equal footing before factoring in any 'I don't want to go to another country' and 'family first clubhouse' considerations.

I remember way back in '89 the Jays tried hard to sign Storm Davis but he went elsewhere when his wife saw the École Polytechnique massacre on TV and everyone they interviewed was French speaking (heavy accent or had to be translated) which scared her. Funny/weird/so American that people speaking French was scarier than 14 women being killed was to her. In the end the Jays were better off not having Davis as he sucked after that as 1990 was his last full time starting season, and for the last 5 years of his career he had 2.9 bWAR and a 92 ERA+ - he signed a 3 year $6 mil deal which was expensive at the time (similar to a $20/25 mil per year deal today I'd guess).

I like Rogers, and there is zero chance this affects their ability to sign Tucker and/or Bichette. Not only have Rogers' results been top-of-the-league for years now, but he also brings a consistency that the team sorely lacked in the pen. I honestly have no idea how Schneider guided this team to within an eyelash of the WS when nobody had any idea how any particular reliever would perform from one appearance to another.

PS - and I know this is recency bias at play having watched Sasaki in the playoffs, but I believe there is a non-zero chance that Ricky Tiedemann is closing for the team by the end of the year if he is healthy.

I think everyone likes Rogers well enough. It's just that giving what might be the biggest RP contract in jays history to a 35yr old non-closer feels a bit outside the sweet apot of shared risk.

Precisely.

It does seem like an overpay (would have expected something like 2/$24) but I don't care much as it isn't the kind of overpay that's going to kill you. He might very well even be worth it. I think he has less risk that someone like Suarez. I really hope the talk about Jays being comfortable with current offensive group is just leverage stuff because team absolutely needs another middle of the order bat.

I support acquiring Rogers and the "overpay." Relief pitching has done the Jays in too many times. This guy looks reliable and durable. That goes a long way for me.

At this point, as more and more closers vanish (Jansen just signed with the Tigers) I'm guessing the Jays might end up doing a trade for one. Be it now or mid-season. In truth I expect mid-season more than now as you need something to 'get' then and bullpen help is always available then. I wouldn't overpay right now unless a good deal is there (ie: uses secondary prospects like Shreck, not primary ones like Tiedemann).

FYI: Seems the Mets are engaged with the Padres about a lot of players including their closer Mason Miller (15.2 K/9 last year vs 4.1 BB/9 2.23 FIP 50-7 Sv-Bl lifetime with 11 holds) - hopefully the Jays are in there checking on Miller too. Says the Padres want "young major leaguers and top prospects, both pitchers and position players". Wonder if anyone here is interesting to them. He cost them 4 prospects mid-season. Ramón Laureano also is available it seems (136 OPS+ last year but just 113 lifetime in LF/RF/CF entering age 31 season making just $6.5 mil in '26 then a free agent), plus a flamethrowing RH in Jeremiah Estrada (13.4 K/9 lifetime). Plus LH reliever Adrián Morejón (very interesting - 9.1 K/9 vs 2.6 BB/9 lifetime 3.31 FIP lifetime, free agent post '26). I see a few good targets for the Jays there, and given how the Mets keep blowing stuff this winter either they'll grossly overpay to get these guys or will underestimate the market and someone else will grab them.

So now what? We wait. And wait. For news on Bo or Tucker be it coming here or going elsewhere. Maybe more trades. At least 5 guys in the pen for 2026 who weren't in it at the start of '25 - not hard to imagine that growing further (clear out Little, get someone else for LH relief). For the lineup it is purely Bo/Tucker/Bregman/trade as I'd be surprised at this point if the Jays went for the 2nd tier guys (Bellinger-Munetaka Murakami-Eugenio Suárez). I suspect any bench additions would just be AAA deals - the bench is overflowing as is, but you can always use minor league depth.

FYI: Rogers option year for 2029 is $12 mil based on 110 games pitched in 27/28 or 60 games in '28. Given his past that is pretty much a lock unless he flops or is badly hurt. So I'd think of it as virtually a 4 year $49 mil deal vs the 3/$37 mil it officially is with a bit of insurance on that final year against complete collapse.

FYI: seems the Cardinals have JoJo Romero on the market with the Yankees hot in pursuit. At first I thought he might be a Jays target, but the more I look at him the less I like - Past 2 years he has thrown 65 games each year, 120 IP total, with a solid 153 ERA+, but 3.4 BB/9 (OK, but not great) vs 8.0 K/9 (low for a reliever) and 0.8 HR/9 (solid, but not 'wow'). Basically he is a good reliever but is he really worth trading much for? I don't think so. Same 2 years, his main ones as a full time ML reliever, 9 saves, 9 blown, 54 saves, inherited 54 runners, just 13 scored, mostly used in high pressure (69 vs 37 medium vs 24 low on a bad team). So there are good elements to him, no doubt, and he'd be a plus but I don't see him as any better than being #5 in the pen after Hoffman, Garcia, Varland, and Rogers. Still worth investigating for sure, as is Adrián Morejón from SD - 2 of the few LH relievers who might be worth chasing this winter.

Oh, I checked and the Jays record for 100% guaranteed money to a reliever is still to B.J. Ryan - a five-year, $47 million contract. At the time it was the most guaranteed money to a reliever ever (Rivera was on a 4 year $40 mil deal). He had a 151 ERA+ here, which sounds good, but then you get into the details - just 155 1/3 IP over those 5 years. 75 saves, 70 in 2 years of the deal (year 1 and 3). 12 blown saves, 4 holds. Solid when healthy, but wasn't healthy much. Jays released him part way through year 4 and he never pitched in the majors again - he did throw 5 games in AAA for the Cubs (0 runs, but 5 walks vs 4 K's so never called up). A good reminder that relievers are big risks for health.

What about Thielbar? Or call it a day, given Rogers excels from both sides. On top of Fluharty and Lauer?

He's equally effective against hitters from either side of the plate.

That's the interesting thing about Tyler Rogers. Usually those submarining/sidearming types are good against same-side batters, and bad against the other side. He doesn't have much platoon split for his career.

His statcast page is hilarious to look at, too. I quite like this signing, actually, even though it seems fairly expensive. I think the Jays have a biiiiig budget to draw on right now.

Kelly is re-signing with Arizona for 2/$40m. That exceeds the Fangraphs (Ben Clemens) prediction of 1/$21m for him.

Teams are spending a lot on free agents so far this year. It feels like the final pricetag for Tucker and Bo is going to be high. This trend may also allow some teams to demand a high price for their veteran players in trade talks (as in the Ferrer-Ford trade), as this may be a more affordable way for the acquiring team to add MLB talent.

Anyone curious about Ponce should watch this brief interview with him. Basically he said... “I want to be apart of this organization, and I did some phone calls… and one of my buddies said that:

‘Dude, Toronto hands down best family, best team, best organization…I had the best time when I was with them.’”

Pretty much a lock that buddy was Ryu. Shows the value of treating players right when they are here.

If he "reached," out I would surmise it was an ex teammate. Chase DeJong, Chad Kuhl, Anthony Alford or someone else.

That's a great quote from Ponce.

On Kelly, it isn't clear that 2/40 exceeds 1/21. It is a slightly smaller AAV and only one year longer. It is true that extra year is the age 38 season, but for someone that has been effective at 33,34,35,36 it isn't clear that is that high of a risk the way someone's 37 year season would be when you are signing them at 30 or less.

Since Kelly clearly likes pitching in Arizona — he’s had considerable success there over the years and returned to them after being traded to Texas at the 2025 trade deadline — wouldn’t it be better for the Diamondbacks to keep signing him to one-year contracts (at around $20m per, with the dollar amount presumably declining year-over-year)? Signing him to a multi-year deal creates additional risk for the team in the event of injury or decline in performance, especially if they would be his first choice for the next one-year contract at around the same AAV anyway. There doesn’t seem to have been any pressing need to “lock him up” at this stage of his career *unless* (as was probably the case) they were fending off a two-year bid from another team.

Players can decline a lot around age-38/39, as we saw with Justin Turner in 2024. Fortunately the Blue Jays gave him a 1/$13m contract, not a 2/$25m one.