Ben Turner@benturn22

Passan on Blair and Barker: “I think Jays get one more starter and one more reliever; is the starter a guy with more ceiling like Shane Bieber, or is it someone like Adrian Houser”. #BlueJays

Bieber was pitching through discomfort in 2023. His FB MPH average has been highest this year in rehab than his career avg.

Ken Rosenthal@Ken_Rosenthal

BREAKING: Phillies close to acquiring Jhoan Duran from Twins, sources tell @TheAthletic

Kwan is more than just an OBP guy. When healthy, he provides a good blend of offense as a leadoff hitter (pesky PAs with a very low K rate, solid OBP, a bit of pop (14 HR last year), some SBs) and good defense in LF. And his postseason resume is excellent, compiled over 80 PA.

Not sure how healthy he is this year or whether he’s slowing down a bit at age almost 28.

Tyler Rogers traded away by the Giants so I guess they've decided 2025 isn't their year (smart imo). Guess that means Robbie Ray is available. He would fit nicely (signed for 2026, pitching well, was popular here and did well in the AL East). Could go for the old HOF staff with Justin Verlander I guess but I can't see it (last 5 starts 3-6-2 2/3-5-5 IP). Best hitter in SF is Matt Chapman but I don't see him coming back ($25+ mil a year through 2030, age 37). Still, another seller is a good thing.

Ok, a few people are saying it's Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait for Duran. That seems like a good-yet-sane trade.

Ray would be a good get. An extra year too, and he's looked the best he has in years.

I don't see the Rogers trade as having anything to do with Robbie Ray. Giants are going to try to contend next year. Imagine anyone else expiring is available though.

Kwan would be nice - he'd give the Jays a legit leadoff hitter with strong defense in LF. Good combo. Price will be high though (free agent post '27). Probably any OF added would shift Barger back to 3B and open a OF slot for Loperfido/Lukes/Straw/Schneider to share (depending on matchups). Loperfido I saw as pure trade bait before his callup and him going on a tear (192 wRC+ after today's game). Plus adding an OF could cause a 2026 logjam with Springer-Varsho-Santander all here plus Barger-Loperfido-Lukes-Straw-Schneider-Roden-Clase-Pinango-Schreck and probably more I'm not thinking of.

Buster Olney@Buster_ESPN

The Phillies swap Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel to the Twins for Jhoan Duran.

Kwan makes the glut of lefty OFs more expendable. Though I do think sitting Kwan sometimes vs LHP is a good idea, given his splits (you end up with Schneider/Santander/Springer or any other players whose last names start with S and end with r in there sometimes).

But a leadoff hitter with good OBP and speed would be a big get for this team and for the playoffs.

They should get Kwan and Robert Jr. and keep Springer far away from the OF.

Good trade for the Phillies, not convinced in either of the prospects heading back.

Don’t know how Tait would be ranked now, but pre season was outside of Law’s top 100, FWIW. Abel was also outside. I guess the Twins were just high on those guys? Because doesn’t that seem like a beatable price? I’m surprised he would go a day early (which to me means they were “wowed”)

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

The New York Mets are finalizing a deal to acquire closer Ryan Helsley, sources tell ESPN.

Welp...Bednar or bust! C'mon Cherington, help your old pals out.

Pipeline now has them both Top 100. Fangraphs neither. Tait 45+, Abel 40. FG downgrades pitchers though, because how often they get injured.

I would prefer to see the Blue Jays land an impact controllable bat or SP, and then go get a competent reliever rental to bolster the bullpen, rather than burn their best prospects to get an elite controllable reliever.

Can i interest you in....nothing at all?

What? There are still 22+ hours to the deadline and a number of good players available.

Young catchers have a high bust rate... and Abel has leveled off in his development and now has more of a No. 3-4 starter ceiling. Chance for more, and the change of scenery could be good.

Mets have a deeper system than the Jays and are using it to make good deals. Funny enough, the Mets seem to have given more to the Giants than the Cardinals.

Ken Rosenthal reposted
Will Sammon@WillSammon

The Mets are sending Jesus Baez, Nate Dohm and Frank Elissalt to the Cardinals in the deal for Ryan Helsley, league sources tells @TheAthletic

Good trade for the Mets.

Sportsnet 590 The FAN@FAN590

“I think Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner and Davis Schneider are available… Does a guy like Harrison Bader make sense?”

@JeffPassan shares what the #BlueJays are looking for in a position player at the trade deadline with
@SNJeffBlair & Kevin Barker.

The Duran trade feels like a nice sell high from Dombrowski. Tait is an 18 year old catcher in A-ball so massive lottery ticket, and Abel’s ceiling might be closer to bottom of the rotation at this point. Nice deal for the Phillies for a controllable closer.

The late inning options for the Jays seem to be dwindling. Bednar is still out there, not sure who else.

If the Twins are doing somewhat of a rebuild, and that was the return for Duran, then what would the likely return for Ryan be?

Jon Morosi@jonmorosi

Eugenio Suárez suitors include the Cubs, Mariners, and Tigers, with less than 24 hours to go before the deadline.

The Cubs have a .575 OPS at 3B this season, 2nd worst in
@MLB

Suárez went 1-for-4 today in his return to the DBacks starting lineup.

What hitters are available and interesting? 120+ wRC+ or better otherwise why bother imo. OF/3B only - everything else full.

• OF: Kyle Stowers (Miami), Byron Buxton (Min), James Wood (Wsh), Corbin Carroll (Ari), Alec Burleson (StL), Mike Trout (LAA)
• 3B: Eugenio Suárez (Ari), José Ramírez (Cle), Matt Chapman (SF), Maikel Garcia (KC)

Now, most of those guys are NOT available, their teams suck but they are under long term deals (Carroll, Trout, Ramirez, Chapman, Buxton) thus unlikely to be dealt, or are very young/years from FA (Stowers, Wood, Garcia, Burleson).

Basically, to improve on offense the Jays would need to get a guy not doing 'wow' right now and hope. Unless they get a surprise or Suarez (very unlikely).

Thus pitching is it. Most likely relief. Most likely someone we never thought of.

There's been too much quiet for two clubs so far: Cleveland and Toronto. I suspect a deal is in the works. I'm hopeful they have a deal there and another one with Pittsburgh for Bednar.

from The Athletic
Ken Rosenthal·Senior Writer, MLB

Pirates are likely to keep right-hander Mitch Keller
-------------------
Mark Feinsand@Feinsand

The Astros are making a big push for Dylan Cease, with one source saying the starter is Houston’s “main target.”
----------------------
Mark Feinsand@Feinsand

The Reds are acquiring RHP Zack Littell from the Rays, per source. @JeffPassan was on it.
----------------------
Mark Feinsand@Feinsand

The Cubs are acquiring RHP Michael Soroka from the Nationals, per source. @Ken_Rosenthal was on it.

Dylan Cease isn't that exciting to me - 88 ERA+ this year, 101 over the past 3 years (484 2/3 IP over 3 years). His 2022 was amazing (180 ERA+ 2nd in Cy voting) and he is a free agent post 2025. Yeah, he'd be a nice get, but safe to say the price is silly high. If Houston wants him that bad, so be it.

From Cleveland only Kwan and Ramirez catch my eye as worth chasing, and either would be a kings ransom (Ramirez with no-trade clause). Also Cade Smith in their pen but he isn't a free agent until after 2029 so I doubt he is available. I keep looking at teams relievers but there are sooooo many out there who are decent but not 'wow'. Griffin Jax probably the best available right now, Mason Miller woudl be sweet to get. Did you know Little has more K/9 than Chapman (13.41 vs 13.29)?

Derrick Goold@dgoold
#stlcards are flying to San Diego tonight, but not the entire roster.

Phil Maton will hang back in STL and Steven Matz also plans to remain STL as team moves forward with talks to trade one or both relievers ahead of tomorrow's deadline ...

forget about Matz

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

The Boston Red Sox are finalizing a trade to acquire left-handed reliever Steven Matz from the St. Louis Cardinals, sources tell ESPN. The deal is agreed to and pending medical review.

Suárez to Ms for a haul.

Phil Maton would be nice - 11.3 K/9 vs 3.5 BB/9 0.2 HR/9, 178 ERA+ - very solid for the past 3 years (133 ERA+ over 168 IP, 9.7 K/9 vs 3.4 BB/9) so he'd be nice as another pressure guy. Free agent post 2025.

Eddie Micheletti pulled from Van game?????

Ken Rosenthal@Ken_Rosenthal

Source confirms: Mariners in agreement to acquire 3B Eugenio Suárez from Diamondbacks for 1B Tyler Locklear, RHP Hunter Cranton and RHP Juan Burgos. Still details to be finalized. First with agreement, names:
@JeffPassan, @DKramer_

Seems a bit light on the return for Suarez imo. None were a top 100 prospect.

That's a pretty light return for Suarez... thats what a bidding war gets you?

Beltre and Micheletti Jr. both pulled early from their games. Nimmala's DHing so not sure about him but neither of the other two are key prospects.

Micheletti Jr. does have an OPS close to .800 so I could see him as part of a return for a middle reliever type. Beltre could just be due to playing a doubleheader.

Nimmala still in game

For a hitter the more I think the more I see a RH lefty killer as being the target. Once healthy (assuming Santander gone for 2025) the OF would be Loperfido/Schneider, Varsho, Lukes/Straw with Straw going to CF to give Varsho days off vs tough LHP.

Checking wRC+ over the past 2 years vs LHP as a RHH you get Judge, Miguel Andujar (A's 3B/OF free agent post 2025, currently has a 99 wRC+ overall, but 187 vs LHP). Huh, I might have found a match right away - 228 innings at 3B this year, 204 in LF a few at 1B/RF as well. Wouldn't cost much as he is in his free agent year with a terrible team. Very poor on defense sadly, but he'd be traded for his bat instead. I'm sure one of him or Schneider could handle RF.

That would also mean Barger to 3B, with Clement flip flopping vs LHP between 3B and 2B. Might be the cheapest way to improve the team's offense. Rob Refsnyder with the Red Sox is another option (FA post '25) but is more a DH these days.

All moot if the Jays feel Santander will return. He'd take over a corner (Springer DH) with everyone else fighting for 1 OF slot (Loperfido/Schneider/Lukes/Straw, maybe even Barger).

Return for Suarez is very light.
A right handed first baseman who hasn't hit in MLB and 2 relievers?

I am not seeing DMs trading their first round picks.

Cleveland is at .500. No reasons to sell.

Given the rankings, I expect the Yankees to get a starter and the Rangers to do more.

How would people feel if the Blue Jays acquisitions today were Kelly and Maton? They might not be the sexiest moves, but they have both performed very well this year and wouldn’t cost nearly as much in prospects as, say, Ryan and Jax. Here’s ESPN on Kelly:

“Kelly might be viewed as more of a grind-it-out innings eater, but that feels like a bit of a disservice to his ability, especially since he's pitching well with a 2.56 ERA over his past 10 starts, lowering his season ERA to 3.22. After getting knocked out early in his second start of the season, he has gone at least five innings in every start since then, usually going six or seven. His superlative work in the 2023 postseason (2.25 ERA across four starts) is another reason he's a fit with any contender.”

There was a report from a very reliable source, Mark Feinsand, that the Guardians were shopping both Kwan and Bieber. They're competing but they're also trying to get cheaper - just like the Rays.

Thought Suarez would get more BUT I think a lot of times, teams really like a specific guy way more than rankings do. Like, let's say Arizona thinks Locklear is an everyday 1Bman right now and they have him as a top-100 prospect themselves. It's very difficult to know what another team could have done to match that. Like, maybe the Yankees were being asked for Schlittler or something. That being said, hitters very rarely get huge hauls at the deadline. Pitchers are just so much more valuable during the playoffs that they tend to fetch a ton.

That being said, I think the Helsey price was very reasonable so wonder what Cardinals were asking for Jays. I also think Duran went for less than I expected (both top-100 prospects but I think both are a bit overrated. If I were Twins, I would have held out for one prospect that I loved and then a flyer or two). I am certain Jays will make move today and I am hoping it's a surprise one. I think SD holds a lot of the card right now. Like, if they get Miller, would they trade Suarez? Not Oakland is clearly open to trading Miller as they are holding him out of games.

Rumours about Maton who Ks a lot of guys despite throwing like 89 MPH. For me, he, like Coulombe, is a backup get if you can't find a closer-type. Of the supposedly available guys: Don't like Fairbanks much (K rate dropping). Bednar is best reliever available. Dennis Santana is OK. Suarez I like but doesn't K enough guys for someone who throws that hard. Doval is like Dominguez (wild and throws hard) but with more closing experience so I'd take him. Brock Stewart another good reliever. Halvorson throws 100. Love him even if numbers aren't great because Colorado screws pitchers up. Vodnik throws 98 so similar. Bird doesn't throw very hard but has been successful. All those guys are under contract for years so would be interesting.

Jays on verge of getting Bieber!

Mark Feinsand@Feinsand

Per source, the Blue Jays are closing in on a deal with the Guardians for Shane Bieber, who made his fourth rehab start the other night. @jonmorosi was on it.

Bieber for Khal Stephen. Wow. Seems like a lot to give up for a rental starter coming off surgery.

If the Jays don't add a bat that pushes Clement out of the lineup vs. RHP, they aren't serious about contending.

"If the Jays don't add a bat that pushes Clement out of the lineup vs. RHP, they aren't serious about contending."

Varsho and Gimenez could both do that but both of them will certainly do that.

Just seems like an insane price to pay for someone who has pitched 12 innings in 2 years and if he's good will be a free agent and if he's bad or hurt will cost you $16M next year.

How? You'll still see Barger in RF, where he doesn't belong, and Clement at 3B. Unless you're suggesting that Loperfido will take Clement's spot, which I highly doubt.

BA ranked Stephen as the team’s #5 prospect post-draft and said, “Stephen has midrotation upside but is more than likely a No. 5 starter with a middle relief floor.”

Looks to me like the front office is following its previous MO: trading non-core prospects who have some value to other clubs. I highly doubt Yesavage and Nimmala are getting traded.

I am SO happy about this acquisition. Bieber has Ryan upside for far low cost. Now there is a big caveat for me. Can they resign him? If yes this trade is like Berrios 2.0 but better. If they have him for this year only then it's too steep a price.

Love this trade and hope he resigns or exercises his option for 2026. This guy has a Halladay-esque mentality on the mound. Kind of like Scherzer too.

Interesting deal. Bieber has a top of the rotation ceiling but is a few years removed from that due to injury, and we don’t know how he will do over the next 2 months. High risk, high reward gamble, which is fairly uncommon for this front office. If he comes back strong, then the Jays added a potential Game 1 or 2 starter in a playoff series, so I could see the logic behind it. If he doesn’t pan out then it’s $16M next season, which is not nothing, so they are definitely banking on him having a great final 2-3 months.

Well, that's quite a gamble. While I'm reticent for Stephan to be the cost, I love the boldness. Jeez, when's the last time Atkins did anything bold? If he's healthy (I know, I know), that's a frontliner for a playoff rotation. Spifficus-approved.

Bieber is an excellent acquisition. It will be interesting to see the plan for the rotation now.

I like the move. As mentioned, Stephen has great numbers in the minors but he was likely ultimately a back-end SP in the majors. Also he was recently added to the IL for some reason.

I assume Bieber looked strong in his rehab starts. He now has a couple of months to tune up in the majors for a possible postseason run. It could work out well for Toronto.

I can see a 6 man rotation in September when they have an extra reliever. How many more starts will Bieber need in minors? Maybe 2?

The Jays are a top 5 payroll team with money coming off the books after this season. If Bieber has a strong finish to the season, and both parties are interested in a reunion, then I think there would be a strong chance that he’s back. Unless he’s a Boras guy, which changes everything. Cross that bridge when you get there, though. First let’s hope he’s healthy and effective.

I concur that I like the boldness from a typically more risk averse front office. They didn’t need high floor in the rotation, they needed an ace. This was probably their best shot of getting one at a reasonable cost. Whether he pitches like one remains to be seen.

I feel that this FO had to feel out Bieber's willingness to exercise his option.

Agreed that another bat is needed for RHP to push Clement to bench. Unless Loperfido is the LF option and Barger at 3B.

This trade tells me that Alcantara and Ryan were prohibitively expensive. I watched some Alcantara recently and I'm changing my opinion on him. Dude looks scary legit again despite the numbers.

Bieber was drafted after Shapiro left Cleveland but there's debate as to whether he was "picked" by Shapiro or Antonetti. Shapiro loves strong make up guys.

Bieber isn't a Boras guy.

That being said, if he's effective for Toronto down the stretch, I don't see any way he exercises his option (although that'll be valuable for the 2025 club).

I'm sure there's going to be a full court press to sell him on signing an extension here, but I don't see why a healthy Bieber wouldn't want to explore his market.

Bieber isn't a Boras guy.

That being said, if he's effective for Toronto down the stretch, I don't see any way he exercises his option (although that'll be valuable for the 2025 club).

I'm sure there's going to be a full court press to sell him on signing an extension here, but I don't see why a healthy Bieber wouldn't want to explore his market.

“Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024 and could return to a big-league mound in the next couple weeks. He made a rehab start for Double-A Akron on Tuesday, when he threw 58 pitches over four innings and tallied seven strikeouts” —The Athletic

That's a big swing.

Biebs' rehab stats


11.1 IP, 21K/1BB, 1.59ERA

Good call dalimon suggesting a trade for Bieber. Nailed it!

Excellent acquisition. The message is clear that they are playing to win in 2025. The FO correctly identified the club's needs and has done well in meeting those needs.

I guess this means they are down on Manoah’s chances of coming back and being an impact player right away.

Thanks I really like Bieber.

"I'm sure there's going to be a full court press to sell him on signing an extension here, but I don't see why a healthy Bieber wouldn't want to explore his market."

Something interesting to consider is Bieber could have signed for more money last off season but decided to stay with Cleveland on a friendly deal to rehab. I remember reports that he signed for less. Perhaps he is more about Goals/relationships/trust etc than money.

Perhaps Jays sign him to a Lugo-esque deal in the next week or two. That would be ideal before he goes all Bieber-mode and prices himself out.

Out of the blue post...

For me the acquisition of the summer has been TB getting Forest Whitley and turning him into an elite SP again in the minors. Not to hijack this thread but I haven't found an opportune time to post.

Is Forest Whitley the get of the summer and the next ace the Rays deliver? Paging Mr Hulet...

Exactly. Trading Bieber doesn't weaken them since he hasn't played this year and he's a free agent.

I just don’t think the 2025 stretch run and postseason was the right time for Manoah to reappear in the majors and entrench himself as a mid- or front-rotation SP. That would be much pressure on him to be consistently good and durable right away. Bieber is in a better position to perform well under that pressure, and his rehab stats suggest that he’s progressing well.

So how does this impact the roster?

Bieber to the rotation. Do they go six man or drop one? I don't think pitchers like a six man rotation long term, so I would expect Lauer to the bullpen.

Paxton Schultz or Nance could be sent down.

What about the 40 man? I don't think Bloss is on the 60 day IL yet, thats probably the move. When Santander, Manoah and Bastardo come off the 60 day more moves will be required.

Anyone else feel the Jays are working on something bigger?

Manoah, Loperfido, Schneider and Wagner...will they all be on the team tonight?

Nimalla, Yesavage, Bloss, Tiedemann, Rojas, Roden and Kasevich... still here after the deadline?

I wonder if Bieber will be used they way Andrew Miller was for Cleveland, as a multi-inning power arm, at least for the regular season. Might help with building up his workload ahead of the playoffs.

"How? You'll still see Barger in RF, where he doesn't belong, and Clement at 3B. Unless you're suggesting that Loperfido will take Clement's spot, which I highly doubt."

I think Schneider is addicted to playing Clement (managers just love gritty players who can do a bit of everything) but also yes, Loperfido won't be in the majors to sit everyday so Clement would definitely sit against a lot of RHP.

It should be noted that Bieber is still a major injury risk. His rehab had to be shut down earlier this season due to elbow soreness. He has pitched very few innings in his recent rehab stint (although he’s progressed from 2 to 3 to 4 innings and has excelled in those outings).

Jays need a reliever and to also clear out some of the depth they have. I expect at least one of Wagner, Roden, Clase, Schneider, or Loperdfido to be traded.

I predict two of thefollowing for Jays moves today:

A) Mason Miller to Toronto for a haul

Or

B) David Bednar or Griffin Jax for non top 100 prospects

+

C) Ramon Laureano or Willi Castro come to Toronto

This FO (I think) wants more upside in BP and a lefty masher (think about how Lane Thomas best Tarik Skubal in playoffs last year).

Shi Davidi:

Blue Jays don't give up Stephen without the plan to extend Shane Bieber.

There's no way Toronto sends Lauer to the pen. Either they go six-man, which makes a ton of sense for extra rest or they do a piggyback with Bieber.

I don't mind the trade if they re-up Bieber but Stephen is a lot for a rental with question marks despite the great pedigree.

After losing Watts-Brown and Stephen, I can't see the club trading any more AA and up SP prospects. I could see more complementary pieces like Maton, Andujar, etc. Big swings are likely done.

Toronto is always fighting to convince good FAs to come here so in acquiring Bieber now, it gives him a chance.to experience the clubhouse culture, the raucous Rogers Centre, the country, etc. Plus he knows Gimenez, Straw, Clement, etc.

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

The A's are receiving shortstop Leodalis De Vries, the No. 3 overall prospect in baseball, along with three pitchers from San Diego for Mason Miller and J.P. Sears, sources tell ESPN.

A quick observation on Bieber - each of his rehab starts has been on 6 days rest, and he has built up from 32 to 43 to 58 pitches. He likely needs at least one, but probably two or three more rehab starts to be fully stretched out. If he starts on Aug. 5th and 12th, that might put him in line to be added to the MLB roster on Aug. 18th or 19th against Pittsburgh. A lot can happen between now and then...

That's a nice high upside play. Anf i bet they think they can extend him. I like.

How much better than Nimmala is Leodalis De Vries? Looks like Nimmala is outhitting him this year.

Padres apparently looking to move Suarez. Could see a fit there with the Jays who could trade outfield depth (ex. Roden).

dalimon, Law had him at 13th in the sport. He’s 18 years old and the youngest player in High A. “Definite shortstop who might end up as a plus”. A switch hitter also.

There’s no doubt in my mind that the Jays intend of extending Bieber. Whether it happens is a different story but this feels like a move to not only increase the 2025 ceiling but also spend the next few months selling Bieber on the organization, city, culture, etc. It worked with Berrios. Let’s see what happens here. First and foremost, he needs to prove he’s healthy and back to pre-TJ levels.

I didn't realize that super young Nimmala was a full year older. That makes sense now why one is rated so much higher.

I honestly don’t know how they could come to anything sort of a fair value extension without seeing him healthy and effective for the rest of the season.

Unless its a short term extension where they guarantee more of his 2026 money and push the payer option out another year.

Gave up a lot for a post-surgery rehab guy.

I think somebody’s oh extreme control will do very well with a good defense like the jays behind him.

Jays taking a risk, but with a potential high reward. But do we know Cleveland isn't taking a risk as well? Stephan pitched a half season in the minors and has already hit the IL. What is his injury? Sprained ankle? Elbow? Shoulder? Impossible to grade this trade without knowing.

This is a massive risk that I think has a greater chance of failing than succeeding. 
BUT, the upside is so great that I love the move. I'd much rather take this chance than add another #6 starter.  You can always find those guys if you are willing to be creative. 

Our past #5 prospects, since 2012, include: Tiedemann, Leo Jimenez, Yosver Zulueta, Kevin Smith, Orelvis, Nate Pearson, Rowdy, Richard Urena, Jeff Hoffman(!), Daniel Norris, and Justin Nicolino. The risk isn't as steep as some think...

Yes precisely. If they traded Yesavage or even Rojas for Bieber I would be concerned. They are trading a minor league pitcher with 18 games under his belt (only 1 above A+). They're getting a former Cy Young pitcher coming back from surgery. Medicals will be reviewed.

Bieber is a much safer bet going forward to me than Scherzer. He's likely similar to Manoah in ability to come back. Likely worse case scenario is he is ineffective and you eat 16 million next year. That isn't supported by his track record or rehab appearances. Likely best case scenario is a true #1 pitcher to pair with Gausman for a competitive 1-2 punch.

Obviously there are the extreme possibilities of him never returning again or him returning and becoming a top 3 pitcher in baseball again. I don't think either of those scenarios will happen though. Just a good to very good SP on the mend who you have to give up a borderline top 100 prospect for right now.

If he's healthy rest of this year and performs well then he's basically the best free agent pitcher after Dylan Cease and likely more attractive because of a shorter contract length (age) and consistency to performance. Let's see how much he likes the cotton candy fries and ketchup chips now.

That's an insane amount to give up for a closer. I know Miller is under control but he's still a closer. Padres are not trading Suarez which will give them an absolutely insane bullpen of Miller, Suarez, Adam, Estrada, Morejohn, and more.

Padres have been shopping their closer Suarez to free up salary and that will probably intensify now that they have Miller.

Padres are not trading Suarez

Where did you hear this?

From MLBTR:

It also sets the stage for a fair bit of other dealing from the Padres, who’ve been discussing current closer Robert Suarez and righty Dylan Cease in trade talks. Either or both could change hands now in trades that simultaneously net younger talent and free up payroll space for San Diego to pursue upgrades in left field, behind the plate and/or on the bench.

The "risk" for the Jays is whether Bieber can come back and be effective this season, and/or whether they can extend him.

I don't see much "risk" in trading away Stephen. He was a low-impact 2nd round pick who came out better than expected and dominated High A (which to some degree shouldn't be surprising considering that he was a polished SEC pitcher), but his stuff still isn't overpowering and likely projects as a back-end starter. He got promoted to AA and got hit hard in his first outing (2 HR's allowed) and then seems to have gotten hurt. He looks like a good pitcher, but he also looks like a real sell-high candidate who may start to look more ordinary against better competition. Either way, this is the type of player that you should expect to be able to replace. Its not like they can't find a similar college pitcher in next year's draft.

another angle to be aware of: this move will have pushed the Jays above the third competitive balance threshold. Meaning even higher tax rates, and having your first round pick moved back by 10 spots.

As a first time payor (Jays were able to reset their payroll last year with the sell off) the Jays will pay a 6 million dollar tax bill.

They only drop their draft pick 10 places if they exceed the threshold base by 40 million or more this year.

Are they 40 million over with Bieber's pro rated amount?

This is the type of move I like - high risk/high reward. The risk is the prospect develops and the cash lost - pitching prospects are a major crapshoot (all pitchers are one pitch away from a career ending injury, but all can also find a new pitch and suddenly become 'wow'). The cash is secondary - who cares if Rogers can afford another yacht or not?

Bieber lifetime has a 133 ERA+ - that is WOW territory. But has a 5 ERA in the playoffs (due to a terrible first start mostly - 4 2/3 IP in 2020 vs NYY 7 R allowed) but 2 solid ones in 2022 (13 1/3 IP 8 H 3 R/ER 4 BB 15 K). IE: if he is ready by October he is exactly what we want in exchange for a guy who pre-season wasn't that high up (my summary of a batch of prospect rankings had him 13th behind Arjun Nimmala, Trey Yesavage, Ricky Tiedemann, Orelvis Martinez, Jake Bloss, Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, Kendry Rojas, Adam Macko, Will Wagner, Charles McAdoo, and Brandon Barriera. Highest anyone had him was 6th [MLB Pipeline] with Keith Law at 9th, BA 11th, FG 17th, BP didn't have him in the top 20, we had him 12th).

So is Cleveland our official AAAA team yet? Sure seems like it doesn't it?

Twins still discussing Jax trades, per Rosenthal

Harrison Bader to Philly.

I support the Bieber gamble. He is an ace when healthy. Bit it also just makes the team a little more interesting to follow. Will he be David Cone or Mike Sirotka? I'm excited to find out -- and hoping it's Cone!

dalimon - they are not close to $40M over. My bad re: draft penalty. I remembered the rule incorrectly. Too much basketball mixed in there

Kwan trade increasingly likely per Morosi. The ask is a Leo Devries type to start. Per radio show citing a bunch of insiders.

LAD grabbing Brock Stewart. Looks like a good pickup. I think the Blue Jays will focus on a quality tier 2 reliever like this. Then maybe try to add a bat like Laureano or Kwan.

I can't see Kwan landing with the Jays, they would have tied it into the Biber trade.

Not necessarily. Dec 10th did two traded with Cleveland - one was traded for Sandlin (3 team trade), then the Gimenez trade, then on Jan 17th for Straw. So 2 in one day with the same team, and another just over a month later. I suspect the Jays often lay groundwork for multiple deals with a club, try to merge them but keep the door open as well.

Having already acquired someone from Cleveland, I'd expect the Jays to acquire someone from the Cardinals, like Phil Maton

Brock Stewart was the arm I was hoping for... he outshine Duran in the game I watched recently. Great movement and power stuff. Another smart move by LAD.

Kwan would definitely take Nimmala, plus probably something like Stanifer and a Roden or Loperfido.

Another example is 2023: Hicks, Cabrera and our favourite SS all from the Cardinals in separate deals.

I think the bigger need is for another bullpen arm, especially evident after the Baltimore series. We have lots of outfielders with Varsho coming back, and all of them, including Straw have contributed.

Thumbs up on the Bieber trade. Prospects don't pan out a lot of the time. I'd be hesitant about dealing Yesavage or Nimmala though.

Katie the other day mentioned Matt Svanson, who is having a pretty solid season in a middle inning relief role. Traded for DeJong. After the deadline, FG ranked all 55 prospects traded. Svanson was 54th. The only guy lower than him was traded for cash.

I would be surprised if the Jays don’t land at least one more reliever.

Right now I'm expecting a couple of OF prospects and maybe Wagner packaged for a reliever. Not an ace, but a solid guy who can handle the 6-7th inning and bridge the starter to setup/closer. Basically Sandlin's role. There are probably 10+ of these guys out there but who knows if anyone will trade one to the Jays. Perfect world would be a LH one to reduce the weight on Little.

As to hitters - we might be set as is. Barger (124 wRC+) and Loperfido (191 wRC+) have both looked damn good this year, as has Schneider (120 wRC+). Lukes has done a solid job in his role (110 wRC+) as well. Clement has seen his stats drop as he plays more (93 wRC+ isn't bad though), and Wagner after his horrid start has been solid (85 wRC+, 112 wRC+ in the 2nd half). In the end making Clement share 2B/3B with Gimenez and Barger would be best (rarely if ever seeing a RHP), Loperfido in one corner, Lukes/Schneider the other should be fine. Varsho gets the odd day off with Straw (78 wRC+) covering. I'd say the Jays offense looks damn fine that way and if Santander returns then Lukes/Schneider lose playing time (or Schneider goes into platoon with Gimenez and Barger/Clement share 3B). Another bat lands under the 'nice to have' category but the cost for Kwan is probably too much to justify (113 wRC+, but 131 last year - GG defense too) for the slight improvement he'd give.

Yeah, I just see relief help coming now.

From Kiley McDaniel:

"If most of the good relievers and all of the great relievers that have been traded drew “overpays,” then that’s the market value.

Some teams refuse to “overpay” for any reliever and thus likely won’t get one. How badly do those teams want to win this year?"

Yankees getting Bednar, it sounds like.

Jays looking for a bat per Morosi.

Damn. I was hoping for Bednar to be a Jays’ target. Sucks seeing him head to the Yankees.

I’m also surprised to see no moves by Houston or Texas so far.

Keegan:

The #BlueJays have been in on all of the big relievers who have moved (Duran, Helsley, Bednar), but everyone's in on everyone. It doesn't matter much.

They're still trying to make another high-end bullpen addition ahead of 6pm ET. Options are getting tighter, but there's time.

Might’ve been nice if the Mets had swung that deal for Mullins a few days earlier, no….

The Mets got Mullins? Ben Shulman predicted that during the Orioles series.

Damn, this gets confusing - who is and isn't traded getting harder to know at this point. So far the Jays have one reliever and one (injured) starter. It'll be interesting to see if they get Kwan, or another bat to stick into the mix. My #1 hope is another solid reliever.

It's all punch-counterpunch moves. If every other team is loading up on pitching, grab the best bat(s) available. Bats play everyday (more or less).

Correa to the Astros.

O'Hearn and Laureano to the Padres.

AJ Preller, the king of the deadline.

After Bieber, Blue Jays appear to have spent much of the day stuck in the mud. Red Sox, too.

I expected this to be a quiet deadline and there have been far more trades and surprises than I expected. Minnesota is really pulling the plug on a team that seems like a perennial wild card threat.

The Jays should campaign to move to a central division. I’d rather see them do away with leagues and divisions entirely under the new CBA but that’s not likely to happen.

Sheesh. Busy time. Quick summary of so far for AL Contenders. Going from roughly mid-July to now.

• Houston: Correa (to 3B), Ramón Urías (O's infielder), Jesús Sánchez (Marlins OF).
• Yankees: Jake Bird (Col RP), David Bednar (Pir Cl), Austin Slater (WS OF), Amed Rosario (WSH IF/OF), Ryan McMahon (ROK 3B)
• Boston: Steven Matz (StL LH RP)
• Tampa & O's are dumping.
• Tigers: Rafael Montero (Atl RP), Paul Sewald (Cle RP), Kyle Finnegan (WSH RP), Codi Heuer (Tex RP), Chris Paddack (Twins SP), Randy Dobnak (Twins SP), Brewer Hicklen (Mil OF)
• Seattle: Eugenio Suárez (Ari 3B), Caleb Ferguson (Pit RP), Josh Naylor (Ari 1B)
• Texas: Danny Coulombe (Min RP), José Ruiz (Atl RP)

Those are who the Jays need to worry most about. The Tigers clearly felt a need to redo their entire pen and a big part of their rotation. Jays got Shane Bieber (Cle SP), Seranthony Domínguez (Bal RP) of course. It'll be interesting to see prospect rankings after this is all done - O's should be even deeper as should the Rays.

Seems the AL has teams dumping far more than expected - Cleveland is just 2 1/2 out, Tampa 3, KC 3, Twins 5 1/2. The Angels seem to think they have a shot at 4 out (added Luis García, & Andrew Chafin).

Mitch Bannon@MitchBannon

The #BlueJays have acquired C Brandon Valanzuela from the Padres for INF Will Wagner, the team announces

Seattle is the team to avoid in the playoffs at all costs.

BOS, DET, and NYY I would feel better about if the Jays added a top 4 bat.

Marc, intel please on the Ali Sanchez replacement. Looks like a guy who has added some pop this year in AA with .700 OPS.

Valenzuela was left unprotected by the Padres in last years rule 5 draft. I think the Wagner move might be a 40 man roster deal, otherwise he could be lost off the roster for nothing.

I think the Wagner trade is just an effort to get something of value and to clear out a much-needed roster spot. Something more is coming in the next hour...

I don't understand this trade at all

Nick Fortes would have been a much better option and not cost as much based on what the Rays paid... and Valenzuela is a milb FA at the end of the year. And can't hit a lick.

Weakens the MLB bench and middle infield depth for a AA catcher. Weird move. Isn't better than Sanchez.

Who replaces Wagner given there's not really 40-man room to add someone else like Stefanic? Or is Varsho the corresponding move?

Pretty simple trade I think. Wagner is a hard guy to fit into a team. No defensive position and no power. Jays need catcher depth.

Laureano and O'Hearn to the Padres.

Feels like the Blue Jays need to add another impact position player to really power through the postseason.

Rosenthal:

The Toronto Blue Jays continue to talk to the Minnesota Twins about reliever Griffin Jax and the Cleveland Guardians about outfielder Steven Kwan, according to sources briefed on the discussions.

Neither player is seen as particularly likely to be traded. The Los Angeles Dodgers also are talking to the Guardians about Kwan, but consider a trade for him a longshot.

Earlier in the day, a Twins official acknowledged increased activity on Jax, but expressed skepticism a team would meet the threshold necessary to acquire him.

I think Gerry and Glevin have the Valenzuela trade exactly right. They do need the catcher depth. Valenzuela is apparently a pretty good defender, and that's enough for the 4th option at the position.

Wagner has three options left and I think he’s going to hit in the majors at some point. Jays giving away lefty bats isn’t exactly what I think they should be prioritizing.

There are several other people who could be dropped from 40 man.

I'm not convinced they need Robinson Pina given the bullpen depth now. Jake Bloss doesn't seem to be on 60 day IL (I think anyone on 40 man can go on it, but can't remember for sure).

Valenzuela is a free agent at year's end. Couldn't they do better?

Wagner is a position-less utility player with no power. I can't imagine he'd have much value to most teams. Clearing up the 40 man spot and adding catching depth seems like a reasonable move.

He has good control of the strike zone and a .343 career xWOBA. He wasn’t as worthless as a AA catcher who is a free agent at the end of the year.

Mitch Bannon@MitchBannon

Brandon Valenzuela has caught 34.7% of base stealers this year (2nd highest among AA catchers).

On the #BlueJays acquiring the switch-hitting, defence-first catching prospect for Will Wagner:

Kind of bizarre the Jays paid more for Valenzuela than the Rays did for Fortes.

I'm still waiting for the Phil Maton acquisition to materialize.

He's not a free agent if he's added to the 40 in the fall.

Wagner is 27 with no power and no position. He wasn't going to be traded for much 1 for 1. He's a logical player to remove to make room on the 40 man. If he was a RHB who could hit lefties then it would have been a better roster fit. As is, it was reasonable to move on from him, IMO.

Francys Romero@francysromeroFR

The Minnesota Twins are still in sell mode and are expected to trade right-handed starter Joe Ryan as well, per industry sources.

Ken Rosenthal@Ken_Rosenthal

Rangers still active trying to acquire LHP Phil Maton from Cardinals, source says.

Fortes is 28 and has a 70 WRC+ in over 1,000 PAs. Let's not pretend he's something special. Maybe Jays think they can help Valuenzuela become a decent catcher. They've had success with overweight Mexican catchers before.

Craig Mish@CraigMish

The Miami Marlins will not be trading Sandy Alcantara today. He’ll once again be the ace down the stretch as the Marlins keep pushing this season and developing for the future.

JackCurryYES@JackCurryYES

The Yankees have acquired Camilo Doval from the Giants.

And scene.

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

BREAKING: The Tampa Bay Rays are acquiring right-handed reliever Griffin Jax, sources tell ESPN.

Mitch Bannon@MitchBannon

Breaking: The #BlueJays have acquired Luis Varland and Ty France from the Twins, per source.

Weird for the Red Sox to get Dustin May from the Dodgers - a guy who is a free agent after the season, and has negative bWAR for this year and his 104 IP this year is his career high. Not a guy I'd be trading for. Yanks adding super-utility guy José Caballero from the Rays (81 OPS+, played at SS-3B-RF-2B-LF-CF-P-DH this year) who is a net positive on defense (rare in Yankee land).

For super-weird, while dumping the Rays traded for Adrian Houser from the White Sox, who will be a free agent after 2025. Houser has been excellent this year, 198 ERA+, but if the Rays are dumping then why get an ace? Curtis Mead (85 OPS+ infielder) was the return. Very weird deal all-around. Hard to believe no one offered more, and what is the point for the Rays unless they are going for it, but then why trade away so many players?

Nick Ashbourne@NickAshbourne

Louis Varland has 98 mph heat, a 2.02 ERA this season, and won't be a free agent until 2031.

That's a valuable RP.

Rojas and Roden is a ton to give up.

Varland and France are trade deadline "consolation prizes."; improvements for sure, but clearly not the primary targets.

Rojas, ouch.

Hate this trade. Two top-150 prospects for a middle reliever and Ty France who completely sucks. Varland throws hard but way too much.

Varland is the extra reliever we all wanted - 2.4 BB/9 vs 8.6 K/9 so not the flamethrower that would be perfect, but with our defense that should play (212 ERA+ this year 2.89 FIP) also not a free agent until after 2030(!).

France is just deadweight I think. Paid just $1 mil though so not much deadweight on the Twins payroll (free agent post 25) with an 86 OPS+, 108 lifetime, 1B/2B so an older, worse version of Horwitz basically. Was very good 2020-2022 (127 OPS+ combined) but sucked outside of that.

Rays get Griffin Jax for Taj Bradley (starter 87 ERA+ lifetime) - dang that isn't much, how the heck didn't the Jays beat that?

Yeah, my reaction is...these are the types of guys you use as part of a bigger deal for a good starter.

One of my worries coming into this season was that Atkins would be worried about his job and would trade the future for the present. I think this last trade was Atkins thinking about his job, and the Twins knew they had him.

That's an I need to save my job trade.

I think this was the worst value for a reliever at the deadline. Maybe Varland finds another level and the years of control are great but Jays gave up more for him than Yanks gave up for Bednar. France I don't get at all. A 1B/DH who can't hit? He doesn't even have splits. He can't hit righties or lefties. What exactly does he bring to the roster? And you know this is exactly the sort of guy Schneider will give abs to.

I don't agree with the sentiment of the last few posts. Not saying I love this trade but it's at least fair value imho. You get a reliever posting great numbers with 6 years of control. Another flamethrower. You give up a good pitching prospect who may not contribute for another year or more and an OF prospect who hasn't broken out. You give up two guys you probably don't like as much as the guy you got. Simple as that.

Hoffman
Dominguez
Varland
Little
Garcia

That is a very good back end.

If Rojas and Roden could have been part of a package for Joe Ryan or Steven Kwan that the FO was comfortable with giving up then they probably would have been traded to the Guardians or Twins already.

It is an odd deal - basically Roden and Rojas for a setup man - lots of years of control but given how high the Jays were on Roden it seems odd. Rojas has pitched well, but around 4 IP per game is all he has done this year (pounded in his one AAA start - 6 R on 10 H in 5 IP 2 BB 6 SO 2 HR). He has been dancing around 80 pitches per start lately, but I guess the Jays felt he wasn't going to be as good as hoped.

Sure, it's nice having years of control on a reliever, but it's not something you pay a top prospect for.

I'd much rather have paid a middling prospect cost for Soto or Maton.

Or look at Jake Bird. The Yankees traded their 22nd and 28th ranked prospects for him. And he has three years of control.

I don't care about years of control for relievers nearly as much as other positions because they get hurt and are so volitile. So so many good relievers got traded for very little.

Based on prospect rankings, the Jays paid more for a reliever with some years of control than they did for a top starter like Shane Bieber.

Perhaps they want to make him a starter again in future years. Who knows.

Excellent point dalimon5 - Roden & Rojas may never be anything. They never were going to be enough (or even an 'over the top' element) for a mega deal.

New Pen: Hoffman-Rodríguez-Domínguez-Varland-Little-Fisher makes a very nice group of 6. 7/8 are (if/when healthy) Garcia & Sandlin. For now 7/8 probably are Fluharty/Nance.

Lineup: No change, outside of Wagner gone thus more Clement/Barger at 3B and Schneider at 2B, so more Loperfido & Lukes/Straw in the OF. Really, really need Varsho & Gimenez back ASAP.

Glevin is exactly right.

Do you have any confidence Varland will be good in 2027? I don't. Sure, he might be. But he might not.

Anyway, Jays bullpen is now much better and rotation is potentially better. Offense and defense about to improve with guys coming back soon. Didn't love the deadline but this team can still win it.

Varland has zero track record of being a good pitcher of any kind. He's been downright bad prior to this year. That's a very poor trade. Having seen Rojas live, I wouldn't be surprised if Rojas was a better pitcher by the end of this year, let alone in years to come.

The Jays farm system is back into the 20's, they lost three top 20 pitchers and at least two top ten.

I think people forget Bednar was awful last year and New York is not an easy place to play. Regardless, with all that bullpen they’ll have a shot, the McMahon trade was also shrewd.

I’ve always liked Varland. I think there’s a good chance he’s better than Bednar this year. Has great stuff. This site’s obsession with Alan Roden is hilariously odd. My prediction he is the next Kevin Barker from back in the spring still stands.

Everything that everyone commended the FO for (and rightly) on the Bieber deal (a long established elite pitcher, Stephen with fringy stuff, etc.) should make one criticize (and rightly) the Varland deal.

Here is what Keith Law said about the Yankees trades for Bednar and Bird. He won't be saying the same about the Blue Jays.

The Yankees upgraded their bullpen with two moves Thursday, neither of which required them to dip into their deep well of starting pitching prospects.

Varland was a starter before. The best relievers are often failed starters.

You can justify any trade of a prospect if the argument is they might not become anything.

I haven't seen every trade roll in, but this is probably the third most valuable package traded this deadline, behind Miller and Duran (unless you value Taj Bradley highly).

Oh boo hoo the farm system is only top 20 now after UPGRADING the major league team. Atkins makes this trade with or without job security. Varland has a ton of control. He has no track record, sure. Just like Ysriel Rosriguez has a poor track record as a starting pitcher. Varland moved to the bullpen and his velocity went way up and he's broken out. It's taken me all of 2 minutes to find this info out. He can have Tommy John surgery and come back and may still be more valuable than Roden.

Rojas is a prospect and while Marc likes him that doesn't mean this was a prospect we needed to hoard. And I don't know if the Jays paid more for Varland than Bieber. They took the risk of Bieber getting injured and being stuck with 16 million which is why the price was only Stephen.

I guess you can count me in the minority of liking this trade. I get to see Varland or Rodriguez instead of Green and I won't miss Roden as a productive but not so special player.

If Rojas becomes the next Pedro Martinez I will change my opinion.

Reminder: Blue Jays are in first place.

I wanted two relief pitchers. I would have liked it better if one of them was left-handed, but I got what I wanted. Bieber is a wild card.

I really like Will Wagner and I believe he will be a good major league hitter. But he's a poor fit on this team, and a little tricky anywhere - with his unimpressive defensive skill set and lack of power, he pretty much has to hit like Luis Arraez to land a regular job. (Which he might do, who knows.) Ty France takes his spot, I assume, and gets to hit against LHP from time to time. He doesn't improve the team, he just balances it better. As for Roden, he was clearly outplayed by Loperfido, and Clase is two years younger.

I generally have no opinion on minor leaguers. I'm acutely aware of the fact that the Twins are the team that turned two months of a 40 year old DH into Joe Freaking Ryan, but to my mind trades are never about who you give away.

What a stupid panic trade at the end by Atkins.

Second best pitching prospect for Varland and France. Biggest overpay by any team at the deadline... not even close nor was an actual good player acquired.

That's it. I'm out.

Yeah good point. Going into the season Roden was ranked highly and regarded as well. Now he's fallen behind Loperfido and Barger. He doesn't have power or good defense so how much value does he have for you? I thought he would have gotten more value in trade but maybe other teams didn't love the safe lower ceiling profile.

Seems like there were better relievers left that wouldn’t have required giving up that much. Seems like a last minute panic shop. I liked the deadline up to the last trade.

I have zero problem with a team emptying the bucket when you are on the right place on the success curve. Trading top prospects and taking on salary is exactly what the FO should have been doing at this trade deadline. But that's still a terrible trade. Great trades can still work out terribly and terrible trades can still work out well but the odds are stacked way against that one.

"Second best pitching prospect," how many pitching prospects were traded? I see a lot of position player prospects that headlined the bigger deals.

I agree that losing Rojas hurts, however, given the team’s track record I’m willing to give Atkins the benefit of the doubt and see how this goes.

There is no question the team is better tonight than it was this morning. We’re in first place.

Is Bird any good? It's hard to tell with those Rockies pitchers. We're playing them in 4 days so any trade is probably a good thing.

"Second best pitching prospect," how many pitching prospects were traded?

Ahem.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PITCHING PROSPECT.

Or so I'm told.

Baseball America post draft update had 5 pitching prospects ranked ahead of Rojas. Another 3 pitching prospects around him. That makes him 1 out of 10 in the top 10 pitching prospects. He's a LHP and I think that's where a lot of love comes. Some prognosticators don't even have him in their top prospect list.

Baseball America post draft:

SS Arjun Nimmala
RHP Trey Yesavage
SS Jojo Parker
LHP Ricky Tiedemann
RHP Khal Stephen
RHP Gage Stanifer
OF Alan Roden
LHP Johnny King
SS Josh Kasevich
2B Orelvis Martinez
LHP Kendry Rojas
RHP Landen Maroudis
RHP Jake Bloss
RHP Juaron Watts-Brown
OF Yohendrick Pinango

I should say: I don't think the Jays missed out on Bednar or Dovall or Helsley.... it's clear to me at least that someone like Rojas was too valuable and they needed more. Varland provides that.

If you like Roden a lot I can see this being a painful trade. I'd be less happy if it was Schneider or Loperfido traded with a lesser prospect instead.

Different strokes for different folks as they say.

SUPER HAPPY THEY GOT BIEBER!!

There was an article on Sportsnet a couple of weeks ago suggesting him as a good deadline pickup.

It had some data on his pitches that convinced me he could be worth adding.

I have no idea if he's better than Varland or not, but I don't like the cost Rojas to find out.

In hindsight, they should have traded Pearson when he had value. Was holding to Tiedemann the right move? Yesavage and Nimmala are the guys I was afraid to lose.

2 relievers, a starter and a right bat.
It seems like they got everything they needed.

My post was an answer to the Jake Bird question, for clarity.

Varland seemingly has 3 effective pitches- a four-seamer, a sinker and a knuckle curve. Perhaps they're planning to simplify his pitch usage, because his raw numbers to date aren't great- he's been a little lucky this year with the long ball.

I don't care for the trade, of course. But, in a year in which the club is rightly going for it, I'm not going to judge too harshly.

All in all, a solid trade deadline. Not a fan of France, but he will be a RH bat to mix in, and helps make sure Clement isn't used at 1B anymore.

• 1B: Vlad-France; 2B: Gimenez-Schneider-Clement; SS: Bo-Clement; 3B: Barger-Clement; LF: Loperfido-Schneider; CF: Varsho-Straw; RF: Lukes; C: Kirk-Heinemann; Totals 14 hitters so someone has to go to AAA or be released. I really don't see France lasting after Varsho & Gimenez are back. Jimenez is the first to go, then France. Can't see anyone else I'd dump first.
• Rotation: Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Scherzer-Lauer, go to 6 man when Bieber is ready. Manoah will be if anyone faulters/injured.
• Pen: Hoffman-Rodriguez-Dominguez-Varland-Little-Fisher-Nance-Fluharty with Garcia & Sandlin returning maybe at some point and Schultz AAA depth along with Bruhl, Lucas, Pina, Estrada, etc.

The pen is most definitely stronger. France makes no sense to me at all after doing the roster digging. Hitters with options are Lukes, Barger, Loperfido, Jimenez, and Schneider. Kirk also has options but that is irrelevant. To keep France who would you send down? Lukes could be the odd man out or Loperfido but in both cases you are dumping a guy who is playing well for a guy who isn't. I'm guessing Lukes draws the short straw as I can't see Straw being released or any of the others going down right now unless one of them slumps big time.

I have no problem with running down the value of Roden and Rojas - that isn't my view, but they are only prospects after all. The issue is that Varland has no track record of being good except for this year and he's been a touch lucky this year.

Twins fans are livid about Varland being traded. Seems like that's the player traded they are most disappointed with for what it's worth.

What about Ty France dalimon5? lol

Where the jays are in their competitive window they pretty much need to go for it. Atkins clearly value years of control and if he thinks Varland is going to be more valuable to the big league club during this competitive window than Rojas, than it makes sense. I'm not a prospect guy (don't even follow baseball that closely anymore) but 45FV pitching prospects do pretty much grow on trees and they are more or less interchangeable. Present value will always cost more than Future value, but Varland also represents future value, this really is his first year as a full time RP and looks like the transition has given him an extra couple ticks on his FB. Have no inside knowledge of what the Jays FO think about these guys but to me looks like they've traded a bunch of spare parts for upgrades in clear areas of needs.

I figured he's a throw in to help the Twins lower payroll before a sale. Atkins just said he will get playing time against LHP but also playing time in other scenarios so...

I don't like France at all. Varland though, there's a lot of upside there and control and he's been the third best reliever after Duran and Jax on the Twins. I just see a good relief pitcher that we can have for more than half a decade compared to Bednar for a little more than one or Helsley for a few months.

Rojas is expensive but not for 6 years of control of a RP who is thriving and just about to hit his prime.

I have three big problems with the trade.
1) The price seems very steep compared to other relievers
2) Ty France seems useless. Maybe our new hitting coach thinks he can unlock more as he worked with him last year, but I don't understand getting him at all. He is like righty Will Wagner except worse.
3) Varland has a short track record of success.

Ty France I don't get, don't see the point of a no bat 1B. I guess his OAA is 95th percentile and he has been unlucky looking at batted ball (.342 xwOBA vs .303 wOBA) data so maybe there is some positive regression there.

I really don't see France lasting after Varsho & Gimenez are back. Jimenez is the first to go, then France. Can't see anyone else I'd dump first."

Varsho will replace Wagner and Gimenez will replace Jimenez. France will have a spot on the team until/if Santander comes back. France wasn't even on Twins last year so Popkins doesn't know him but maybe Jays think they can unlock more. Couldn't the Jays have done this trade earlier and got Badar who would be significant upgrade?

Ben Turner@benturn22

Passan on Blair and Barker: “I think Jays get one more starter and one more reliever; is the starter a guy with more ceiling like Shane Bieber, or is it someone like Adrian Houser”. #BlueJays

Passan is the man.

"I have three big problems with the trade.

1) The price seems very steep compared to other relievers
- The only other reliver with as much control traded was Mason Miller. You shouldn't compare the return for half a season, 1.5 and 2.5 seasons of control to 6.5 seasons of control.


2) Ty France seems useless. Maybe our new hitting coach thinks he can unlock more as he worked with him last year, but I don't understand getting him at all. He is like righty Will Wagner except worse.
-- this guy is useless. Probably he requested a trade and the Jays are doing the Twins a favour taking him. Maybe he has an amazing record against Tarik Skubal. Probably just a throw in...useless. Roden and Rojas were not added to include France...

3) Varland has a short track record of success."
--- he's a reliever he doesn't need to have a huge track record. If he performed like this last year then he would've cost a lot more.

Atkins just said on in the press conference that they've been targeting Varland for 2 years and tried to get him 3 days ago specifically. That means he wasn't a last minute thought after Bednar and Helsley et all went off the board. This wasn't a panic move.

Basically it comes down to "do the Jays know more about Rojas and varland than we do?" They clearly like him a lot.

Atkins just said they are open to moving him to the rotation 2 - 3 months from now after talking to him. I don't like that idea...

Also, Shane Bieber wants to take a boat from Cleveland to Toronto

Trade value wise, Bednar is the better player in 2025 and probably 2026. Varland is the better player for '27-'31.

Now I'm starting to wonder if there is something we don't know about Vlad regarding the useless France acquisition.

ESPN lists their “winners” and “losers” on the day. The Blue Jays were not listed in either category. That seems about right. I think it was an OK trade deadline for them, but I wish they had added another impact bat like Kwan or Suarez. I think some of the less experienced players (like Lukes, Schneider, Loperfido, Clement, Jimenez) may get exposed in the playoffs, especially against some of the killer arms they’re going to face. With the game on the line, I would have liked to see Kwan coming up to bat ahead of Vladdy, Springer and Bo.

I guess i appreciate the balls shown on this trade too tbh.

Varland would have been adored here as a minor leaguer - great numbers to go along with his big arm, as an SP too. And he doesn't look like SP material in MLB but has been really great as an RP. He's been as good or better than any Jays RP this year.

But Roden is likely a solid MLBer going forward, and Rojas has impact upside, so this one could hurt.

They are betting on Varland bigtime, and the cost was very high. Huge risk here so it better work out, but to be fair to the FO after all my criticisms - i can't get mad at this big swing.

Ty France is a bit annoying - i think i might have appreciated the trade more if it was just Varland tbh.

On the other trade i don't love losing Wagner but tbh i actually do have some time for Valenzuela. He's got some solid component stats that let him be a decent hitter whenever babip isn't killing him, which is promising for a defense first C. My question is whether he has shown any promising splits as a switch hitter.

Glevin - there is a 13 batter limit - Locks: Vlad-Bo-Kirk-Heinemann-Clement-Barger-Varsho-Springer = 8; damn near locks: Straw (too expensive to cut plus Varsho caddie), Barger = 2; Shouldn't be cut: Loperfido (184 OPS+), Schneider (112 OPS+ - 241/370/458 since being called up in June), Lukes (107 OPS+) = 3 - that gives us 13 hitters. Which do you cut to make room for France? I'm guessing Lukes draws the short straw, although he deserves better.

John, you're right. Jays have to send someone down and whoever they send down is more valuable than France is.

Atkins just said on in the press conference that they've been targeting Varland for 2 years

So they were trying to get him the year before he had a 7.61 ERA. I'm not sure thats as impressive as you think it is Ross.

Just hit me - Springer might need to be IL'ed due to that ball in the head (off shoulder) as he didn't play since then. So France might be a safety move by the Jays to have a 'proven ML hitter' to cover for Springer. Ugh, I hope not, but it makes sense.

John, you have Barger twice on your position player 13-man limit breakdown.

Varland definitely is a nice guy to have, but doesn't justify the price tag. Roden still has a strong chance to be good, and Rojas - well, I would be surprised if he isn't on top 100 lists following the season, and he has a pretty high ceiling. For a good but not outstanding reliever with a fairly short track record, it's too much.

The trade I really like is Shane Bieber - he has a decent chance of hitting the ground running and being the ace this team needs in October. Stephen is a nice prospect, but worth the gamble.

"So they were trying to get him the year before he had a 7.61 ERA. I'm not sure thats as impressive as you think it is Ross."

Well safe to assume that Ross the Boss and his army of 100+ "khakis" weren't using ERA to evaluate a pitcher. If they were using ERA they would never have found a pitcher like Robbie Ray.

I kind of wish, just a tiny bit, that the Jays gave up Yesavage, Nimalla, Tiedeman, Roden, Stephen and Rojas so I could see the same posters coming here to complain that the GM is crazy and overpaid. Or, the opposite where they don't trade any prospect of significance and come away with nobody special and you read the complaints that this FO stinks and never moves the needle.

Finally! They make risky trades while protecting the best pieces of their farm system which is ticking up and we get complaints about the cost as if the Twins should have been pillaged and ransacked.

We live in a greedy world where nothing is enough any more.

"Varland definitely is a nice guy to have, but doesn't justify the price tag. Roden still has a strong chance to be good, and Rojas - well, I would be surprised if he isn't on top 100 lists following the season, and he has a pretty high ceiling."

Rojas is pretty much already on half the top 100 lists that count. That's why people are rattled by his inclusion for a very good RP without the flashy stuff of Helsley or Bednar or elite stuff of Duran. Marc thought he could even be a solid option out of the pen as soon as now.

Have no inside knowledge of what the Jays FO think about these guys but to me looks like they've traded a bunch of spare parts for upgrades in clear areas of needs.

That's what it looks like to me, because that's what it is. Pretty solid deadline for the Jays. A lot hinges on Bieber's health I think.

Oops, good catch pooks137, price of doing it in my head quickly. But I also noticed I skipped Gimenez so it is 13 pre-France and once Varsho & Gimenez are healthy. Boy do I need to get a good nights sleep one of these days.

I think looking at the trade a single standalone item is missing the forest for the trees. We’re in first place. We need to get playoff pieces. It’s OK to overpay, IMO, because each marginal wins is so important. Wouldn’t you pay more to get your guy if you thought it helped you to get a first round bye? I would.

I support all these trades. Not sure what they will do with France but I think all those pitchers are going to be valuable for the playoff run.

Fastball velo has gone 93.8, 95.3, 96.2, 98.1 the past 4 years. The addition of a knuckle curve last year and getting rid of his subpar cutter this year changed his pitch mix for the (much) better. GB% has climbed over 50% and FB% and LA way down Now throwing 90% FB, KC, SI all of which look solid plus pitches.

No wonder it took Rojas to acquire him.

Another reliever who was traded was Camilo Doval. Here is Law on that trade..

As the trade deadline arrived, the Yankees continued to try to build a brand-new bullpen on the fly, acquiring Doval from the Giants for four players who weren’t even among the Yankees’ top 20 prospects this offseason.

I did some digging on the notable relievers that were traded this deadline. This paints Varland a lot better than just "a guy that they panicked to get":

Stuff+
Ryan Helsley: 129
Tyler Rogers: 127
Mason Miller: 123
Jhoan Duran: 123
Seranthony Dominguez: 113
Louis Varland: 110
Griffin Jax: 110
David Bednar: 107
Danny Coulombe: 107
Camilo Doval: 105
Phil Maton: 104
Andrew Kittredge: 99

Pitching+
Griffin Jax: 132
Tyler Rogers: 120
Ryan Helsley: 118
Jhoan Duran: 117
Louis Varland: 116
Mason Miller: 114
David Bednar: 112
Phil Maton
Camilo Doval: 105
Danny Coulombe: 103
Andrew Kittredge: 103
Seranthony Dominguez: 99

One thing I am happy about is that the Jays finally understand that they need guys who throw hard. No more "let's trade for the guy who throws 91 but has a lot of spin."

Adding on to the above; this is our current bullpen:

Stuff+
Brendon Little: 120
Yimi Garcia: 119
Mason Fluharty: 117
Jeff Hoffman: 111
Braylon Fisher: 108
Yariel Rodriguez: 102

Pitching+
Yimi Garcia: 110
Braylon Fisher: 109
Brendon Little: 108
Mason Fluharty: 107
Jeff Hoffman: 104
Yariel Rodriguez: 102

Lost: Will Wagner, Kendry Rojas, Khal Stephen, Alan Roden, Juaron Watts-Brown

Gained: Ty France, Shane Bieber, Brandon Valenzuela, Louis Varland, Seranthony Domínguez

None of the lost were top 100 prospects coming into 2025. None. Player, system rank preseason (composite) - Roden #6, Rojas #8, Wagner #10, Stephen #13, Watts-Brown #17. So pre-2025 NONE were even top 5 in our system. 3 in the top 10. 5 in top 20. Roden's star fell a lot in season (66 wRC+ in majors, 150 in AAA at age 25) as did Wagner's (85 majors 115 minors). Rojas was impressive, 1.97 xFIP but under 4 IP per game pitched (10 starts, 1 relief, 41 2/3 IP) which is a major red flag to me for how he'll do going forward (peak possible is becoming Varland imo). Stephen did great this year but each climb (3 levels) saw his K/9, BB/9, HR/9, GB% all got worse with each promotion - hidden by a drop in BABIP at each level. Watts-Brown was the same but over just 2 levels. So clear negatives on each of the guys who were lost which make me question any of them being a 'oh crap why did we trade him' in a year or two. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if in a couple of years a lot of us go 'oh yeah, why did we care about those guys' if it comes up again.

France - none of us know why he is here, probably released once everyone is healthy. Bieber could be the ace for the playoffs with a fresh arm. Valenzuela is a piece for the future maybe, Varland makes me think of Aaron Sanchez - does WOW in the pen in a playoff push, then gets shifted back to the rotation. Sanchez had 1 WOW year as a starter (3.5 fWAR), then went kabloom (2.0 fWAR the rest of his career) so lets hope if they go that route it ends better. Seranthony Domínguez looks great so far, lets hope his control doesn't vanish.

Yeah, overall I like the trades. This works for me.

Ty France is actually hitting well below his expected wOBA. His xwOBA of .342 is actually in line with previous seasons wherein he was a ~106-129 wRC+ hitter.

Underlying data suggests that he could prove to be a more useful hitter than it likely seems if luck starts turning around for him. His xwOBa is 10+ points higher than Nathan Lukes and much higher than Schneider's.

I think the Blue Jays are in pretty good shape at this point. They’re first in the AL East by 3.5 games. They seem to have dodged a bullet with the Kirk and Springer injuries (although we don’t know for sure yet). They should be getting Varsho and Gimenez back very soon. Bieber and Manoah are ramping up. Scherzer’s thumb seems to be feeling somewhat better. The team has two new and talented bullpen arms in Dominguez and Varland.

Is the team good enough to win the division and advance at least one round in the postseason? We’re about to find out.

Varland was born in St-Paul. It's the equivalent of the Jays trading Jordan Romano in 2020.

Varland was a reliever that intrigued me from a combination of aggressiveness (66% First pitch strikes, 55.8% strikes), command (104 Location+) and dominant fastball (112 Stuff+ fastball, 98mph, and I just spotted 7.0' extension). I definitely like the get, though the cost was high. I'm just not sure who would be sub-able in place of Rojas, so I'm resigned to the price being the price, and will just move on and enjoy Varland.

I'm not really understanding some of the negativity here with this trade. No issues with anyone thinking it was an overpay, that's mostly subjective to begin with pre-hindsight, but why was this a "panic move"? Firstly, Varland's previous seasons are irrelevant to his present value. Pre-2025 he was in a different role with different velocity, pitch mix, etc. He became a full time RP for the first time this season. What he did as a starter in 2022-24 is irrelevant to what the Jays are acquiring.

Secondly, piggybacking off the above point, Varland trending up in practically every category is a big reason for his price tag. Someone mentioned Doval, whose last good season was 2023, and since that year he's seen a decline in Stuff+ (116 in 2023 to 105 in 2025), walk rate, and a small dip in velocity. You can't say "look what the Yankees gave up for him compared to Varland". It's apples and oranges. If the Yankees traded for Doval two years ago, then the price is obviously very different.

Thirdly, while I wouldn't count on Varland being good for another 5 years (see Doval example above to illustrate volatility), you have to factor years of control into trade value. The Jays are getting 5 more years, and at least one of them (assuming he's Super Two) will be for the league minimum. If they think his turnaround is sustainable, or they think they can turn him into a starter, or whatever their reasoning is, they have 5 years to figure it out. That comes with its own value.

I hate losing Rojas (no issues losing Roden, he was expendable), and maybe down the road it will look bad if Rojas turns into something, but the team obviously felt Varland helps them more in 2025, and internally they might feel he helps them more in 2026-30 as well. Maybe they are right, maybe they are wrong, but this doesn't seem like an egregious value trade like it's being made out to be.

What Hypobole noted! Pretty excited to see what Louis Varland brings to the pen. By the information from Baseball Savant, he's reinvented himself this season by ditching his slider while also reducing the frequency of his infrequently used change-up. Now relying on a knuckle curve that he only started really using last season. Has doubled its use from 15.5% to 37% and using a sinker as his 3rd offering.

His GB% has risen respectively from 38.5%, 45.4%, 43.2% (2022-2024) to 55.6% this year. He hasn't given up a HR since the end of April and apparently two of his three HRs were off of his change-up. Interestingly, he has thrown 33 change-ups this season and all of them to LHB so I guess at least two of his dingers were to LHB. It will be nice to not see baseballs flying out of the park.

All to say, I am pretty intrigued by Varland and that perhaps his past results are not representative of what he is now.

One more point that was raised elsewhere is that with Varland having 3 plus pitches now with his new KC, there is a non-zero chance the Jays may try to move him back into a starting role in the future.

Keith Law just did a writeup of all the Blue Jays acquisitions in recent days. He's pretty positive about them.

On Bieber, he says, "It seems unlikely that he’ll be going 100-plus pitches in any games this year, although I am truly just speculating. I would expect him to be effective whenever he does pitch in the majors this year."

On the bullpen additions, he writes, "With Varland and Seranthony Domínguez, who was acquired on Wednesday, they’ve dramatically improved the right side of their bullpen, and Varland gives them another option for the highest-leverage spots."

He concludes, "credit the Jays for trading some real prospects where it seems like every other non-Padres team wouldn’t do so."

From the June 4 FG scouting report on Valenzuela:

Even though he’s been passed over in multiple Rule 5 Drafts, Valenzuela continues to have good backup catcher projection here at FanGraphs. He’s a quiet pitch framer who is strong at the catch point, as well as an agile thrower with a quick exchange and plus accuracy, and his ball-blocking has improved. Valenzuela is a strength-over-bat speed type of hitter who has some low-ball pull power from the left side. He’s not often on time to pull pitches in the middle of the zone, but he has the strength to threaten the oppo gap even when he’s late. As a righty batter, Valenzuela is almost exclusively an opposite field hitter because of his tardiness. With two below-average offensive tools, his ceiling is limited. Industry inventory at the catcher position ensures he’ll be relevant for as long as he’s mobile and athletic, which for a player with Valenzuela’s physique will probably be for a while.

Keith Law does not see any potential that Varland would return to a SP role.

Gonna do some self-backpatting, just to confirm other posters opinions of me as a jerk.

"Lots of starters with years of control keep popping up in rumours. How many will actually traded? Of the Ryan, Keller, Cabrera, Alcantara group I'll guess zero."

"It's at least a tier down where trades could happen. Severino may well be moved. Or maybe Taj Bradley."

Poor Severino. Stuck with the A's for the foreseeable future. Taj Bradley to Minnesota for Jax is a bit of a weird one though eh? Figuring out what Tampa is up to is a challenge.

Looking at the lost players - Will Wagner, Kendry Rojas, Khal Stephen, Alan Roden, Juaron Watts-Brown - only Wagner (-0.4 WAR) and Roden (-0.1 WAR) have been on the big team this year and as bWAR shows haven't helped. Rojas just reached AAA, Stephen 1 game in AA, Watts-Brown in AA (3.48 ERA 4.5 BB/9 9.2 K/9) so I doubt any of them would've been up for the Jays this year, all in 2026 but not in 2025. For attempting to win this year the Jays kept everyone who they might realistically use. I like that.

LH Lauer 17gms, 4.4ip/gm, 66era-, 77fip-, 92xfip-, 3.3war/32
RH Gausman 21gms, 5.8ip/gm, 94era-, 87fip-, 94xfip-, 3.1war/32
RH Berrios 23gms, 5.7ip/gm, 95era-, 105fip-, 105xfip-, 2.2war/32
RH Bassitt 23gms, 5.4ip/gm, 105era-, 95fip-, 87xfip-, 2.0war/32
RH Scherzer 7gms, 5.0ip/gm, 121era-, 110fip-, 92xfip-, 0.9war/32

RH Bieber 0gms



RH Fisher 32gms, 1.0ip/gm, 62era-, 57fip-, 80xfip-, 1.7war/65
RH Varland 51gms, 1.0ip/gm, 50era-, 69fip-, 73xfip-, 1.5war/65
LH Little 51gms, 1.0ip/gm, 64era-, 61fip-, 70xfip-, 1.1war/65
RH Rodriguez 46gms, 1.2ip/gm, 62era-, 96fip-, 99xfip-, 0.9war/65
RH Dominguez 45gms, 1.0ip/gm, 77era-, 81fip-, 83xfip-, 0.8war/65
RH Garcia 22gms, 1.0ip/gm, 95era-, 91fip-, 91xfip-, 0.3war/65
LH Fluharty 41gms, 1.0ip/gm, 119era-, 84fip-, 93xfip-, 0.1war/65
RH Hoffman 47gms,1.0ip/gm, 118era-, 97fip-, 66xfip-, 0.0war/65

RH Nance 5gms, 1.3ip/gm, 33era-, 26fip-, 54xfip-, 1.5war/65
RH Sandlin 19gms, 0.9ip/gm, 54era-, 109fip-, 116xfip-, 0.2war/65
RH Schultz 12gms, 2.0ip/gm, 113era-, 99fip-, 91xfip-, -0.1war/65

SK, that's a good post and I understand if some people have that view of the trade.

I think there are also a number of us who would have preferred trading three/four names from the 20-50 range for Doval or Bednar or whomever and deal with restocking the bullpen in the offseason, particularly given the inherent volatility of relievers. I value control of relievers to some degree, but far far less than I do for position players or starters.

As such, the fact Varland is controllable for five seasons isn't a big difference from him being controllable for two more years for me. I get why Minnesota would demand a big ask for him given that, I just don't think the control does a lot for me.

Maybe the Jays will be able to turn Varland into a mid-rotation starter or maybe he'll throw 80 lights out inning for five years and be closing before the end of the Jeff Hoffman deal.

However, the Jays do not have great starting pitching depth and almost their entire rotation will be gone by the end of next year. Rojas had already reached Triple-A, was still developing and looks like a potential mid-rotation arm. Maybe he needs another year to work up his innings total, but nothing I've read suggests he's not a starter long-term.

If I had a choice between trying to find starting pitching depth for 2026-27 or reliever depth in the Jays position, I'd rather have the promising young starting pitching prospect in Triple-A than the good 7th inning guy.

And, I'd have taken a chance on Bednar or Rogers or Doval or whomever with the knowledge that at least one of the team's starters will likely end up in the playoff bullpen and that they have a good front five in Hoffman, Dominguez, Little, Yariel and Fisher, with Yimi hopefully in the wings.

A couple of Keith Law (The Athletic) quotes that are relevant to the Varland discussion:

“[Rojas is] probably a fourth starter if he stays healthy, which is a big question. Rojas has never topped 84 innings in a season and missed the first two months of this year with an oblique injury.”

Varland has been “dynamite this year, with a 2.02 ERA/2.89 FIP in 49 innings, thanks to a 5.7 percent walk rate and just three homers allowed in that span. For comparison’s sake, he allowed 16 homers in 68 innings in 2023, mostly coming as a starter. He’s consistently in the upper 90s with a spike curveball that looks like it dies as it approaches the plate, generating whiffs and some ugly swings, too.“

I like the Varland trade, short-term provides a bullpen upgrade down the stretch and long term could head back to the rotation as priorities shift. Rojas has never managed to stay healthy and as much as I like Rodon it was clear the Jays chose some of other lefty hitters like Barger, Loperfido and even RJ Shreck/Pinnago.

A couple points. The people down on this see Varland as a low leverage arm - a “7th inning guy”. The Jays obviously don’t see him that way. Even Law said “ Varland gives them another option for the highest-leverage spots”. The Jays and Law don’t see this as a Green/Bruihl replacement. This is someone who can get big outs like Hoffman, Garcia, or Rodriguez.

Re: rotational depth. We still have our best two options for next year: Manoah and Yeasavage. We might also have Bieber. There are a lot of other guys coming back from injury too, like Tiedemann & Bloss. We have more rotation options than we’ve had in years, and we’re in first place.

This team needed to put more weight on today than we have been accustomed to. First place in the AL is super valuable- look at our home record. IMV, when you’re in first place In July for the first time in 1992, it’s not the time to be satisfied with lesser options. The front office met the moment. I’m happy for that.

I didn't mean 7th inning as middle relief, but I don't necessarily see him displacing Dominguez and Hoffman (assuming everyone is available) in the pecking order. He would slot ahead of Yimi, I assume.

As for rotation depth, that's a lot of giant question marks, from Bieber being healthy and re-signing, Manoah being healthy and useful, Bloss will still be recovering and Tiedeman is a giant question mark, too. Some of those options may pan out, some may not, but half of our six starters will (likely) be gone this offseason and Gausman and Berrios will likely be gone after next year. And I think Lauer is on a one-year deal, too.

Berrios may re-sign/restructure his deal, maybe Bieber will resign, but there's a lot of vacancies in the rotation very soon and, beyond Yesavage, none of those options fills me with too much confidence. Nor does turning Varland into a starter, but maybe they'll be able to do it.

Rojas is far from a sure thing, but I just don't like the cost. (I think Roden will be useful, but the Jays seem higher on other outfielders and, given that, it made some sense to deal him.)

The Yankees traded a lot of marginal/fungible prospects for Bednar, Doval and Bird and bumped their projected bullpen contributions for rest of the year from 17th to 3rd, according to FG, and also got team control with some of the acquisitions. That'd have been my preferred approach.

It seems like the Blue Jays were hurt at the trade deadline by a lack of prospect depth. I was surprised at how little it took to acquire players like, say, Suarez or Bednar. The Toronto front office seemingly (and understandably) didn’t want to move their best prospects, and other teams weren’t that enamoured with the prospects the Blue Jays were willing to move.

Lauer is ARB3 eligible next year, so the Jays have him if they want him to stick around (and I suspect they do).

I think it will be important for the Jays to develop some young, cheap starting pitching instead of having to sign expensive free agents. Some observers seem to think that the Jays will try to convert Varland back to a starter next year.

It may hurt to lose Rojas or Stephen but the team has their own evaluation of their prospects. There's no doubt teams were asking about Yesavage and no doubt Atkins was unwilling to give him up unless it was a wow deal.

You can look back to previous years Top Twenty prospect lists and generally only a few off them actually make an impact in the major leagues. The tricky part in being a GM is knowing which ones to trade that won't come back to haunt you in the future, or the alternative is keeping them all and ultimately watch some wither on the vine.

No wrong opinions and Katie your position is perfectly defensible. At the same time we are all going off comparisons of "that's all it took to get Bednar," but we really don't know. The return might look light but maybe PIT really likes one of those prospects and the Jays couldn't match because PIT doesn't like their players as much.

When I look at the NYY they could have easily traded for Suarez but instead they went with McMahon and Rosario. Is it because they preferred that or Arizona didn't like their prospects?

Fangraphs war includes leverage btw - so the reason why Varland has so much more war than Dominguez this year is because Varland is the high leverage guy, not Dominguez.

I really like the Bieber trade and it's nice that they added a couple of relievers, but I'm disappointed that the Jays didn't add a real bat. Hopefully it means that the team fully expects Santander to return and contribute at his usual level in September.

Can anyone offer me some explanation for why Varland’s newfound ability to limit home runs is sustainable? This would seem to be the biggest change in his line from past years when he’s been quite bad. I hear people talking about velocity jump and pitch selection but why haven’t those changes shown up in more Ks or fewer walks? Convince me this was something other than a case of buying extremely high.

Katie, I tend to agree that team control on relievers is a lot less important given their volatility. Varland having 5 more years of control was probably of lesser importance to Atkins than other factors but it does have to get baked into the trade value. As far as Varland vs other options, I’m not sure it’s cut and dry. Prospect and player valuation varies from org to org. It’s possible Cherington would have still taken the Yankees offer over Rojas/Roden if given the choice. It’s also possible Atkins may not have wanted to trade that package for Bednar and felt more comfortable offering it for Varland. I would have preferred the best possible reliever regardless of team control, but I’m not convinced that Bednar is that much better for 2025 than Varland, nevermind future seasons. In other words, if you were going to lose Rojas and Roden either way, I don’t think the 2025 team is significantly different whether it’s Bednar or Varland on the mound in the 8th inning of a close game. Bednar has the track record but Varland is trending up in practically every important category.

I knew little about Varland other than he pitched for the Twins. Obviously a number others here as well. Someone pointed out the Jays tried to get him last year as an insult. But as 92-93 said the other day "that's what scouts are for" I'm guessing the Jays saw him incorporating the knuckle curve last year and thought it could be a real weapon, which it has been this year. No doubt the Twins saw the same thing which is why they didn't trade him when he was struggling.

And dalimon is right. Top 30 lists mean a little, but even those have wide variations of opinion on prospects. The only opinion that matters is that of the teams acquiring or rejecting prospects in trades.

It's because they were homing off his secondary pitches which he doesn't throw anymore.

How many home runs were hit off Varland's cutter last year? It shows as by far his worst pitch last year and he he hasn't thrown it at all this year.

"the Jays didn't add a real bat"

Une grosse batte francaise isn't good enough for you? Tant pis!

It seems from the Statcast data that Varland has reduced his slider usage from 28% to 6%. He has been lucky this year that none of his hung sliders have found their way to the seats (his xSLG on sliders this year is a gross .722), and hopefully that pitch gets consigned to the dustbin.

It’s hard to Ty up every loose end in trade talks. Franchement, I think Atkins did the best he could with what he had.

It's easier to improve a team with glaring holes like the Yankees but Cashman improved the defense rather than the offense.

I know it's supply and demand, but it does seem incongruous that multiple relievers cost as much or more than the best bat on the market.

I wonder if all of these trades by contending teams will result in any actual meaningful movement in the standings, vs. just staying the course?

The clubhouse should be in high spirits. They fixed the pen and didn't sacrifice anybody. Wagner is gone to a contender and Roden should get some playing time.

Red Sox didn't improve. Yankees depend on Judge. Stanton ran into Aranda, that could impact the Rays.

Mariners got 2 bats. Houston? Not really sure about the moves they made. The Tigers control the central. Wild card is probably too close to call.

Yeah for me the summary is as follows:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
WEST - SEA is better with Naylor and Suarez and are new favourites to win the AL West.
CENTRAL - DET didn't improve but KC did and I can see either winning division
EAST - New York got a lot better with bullpen and defense to close gap to Toronto. Toronto got a possible ace to narrow gap to NYY rotation.


---------
NATIONAL LEAGUE
EAST - Phillies and NYM got a lot better with their bullpen additions.
CENTRAL - Reds are much improved and will catch Cubs or Brewers
WEST - Padres are as good as LAD now and may win that division

I predict Toronto and Seattle in ALCS if Bieber returns healthy. Mets and Padres in NLCS.

Atkins at the trade deadline always does just enough, but somehow always leaves an unsatisfying feeling. Does not make the Anthopoulos blockbuster deals, but does some surprising and unexpected deals that get a lot of value such as the Bieber trade, the Cimber trade in 2021, the Benoit trade in 2016.

This year seems like he should have taken more risks and added more than the just enough that ended up happening.

I think we should give Atkins the benefit of the doubt. This is a front office that competed hard to sign or trade for players like Ohtani, Soto, Burnes,
Lindor. They are being aggressive but not reckless. There were other impact players available that didn’t get traded (like Kwan and Ryan), apparently because the asking price was extremely high.

Meh, Atkins traded away all he could last year and the team rebounded beyond hopes. AA didn't even bother trading away his free agents this year.

Many of AA's trades were monumental flops and he wasted Bautista's best years. Even in 2015, he wasn't able to patch all the holes despite trading away all he could. They needed another starter, better relievers and another bat.

I don’t think they went 43-18 by accident, Scott. What hurt them
Was Price tipping his pitches and Cecil getting hurt.

AA was good at doing block busters, some work out spectacularly and some fail spectacularly, but he was not good at making the under the radar trades like some of Atkins trades...only if we had a GM that combined the the best of AA and Atkins.

In 2015, despite what people said that AA emptied out all the prospects, he didn't pull the trigger on the Zobrist trade because he didn't' want to include Tellez in the trade...imagine that lineup with Zobrist instead of Goins in the playoffs. He also didn't get reliable relievers as that bullpen was short a couple of good relievers.

Not sure what FA's Atlanta had that anyone wanted. And he wasn't going to tear down since Atlanta is going to try to contend next year.

My goals for the deadline were Cone and Henke -- and then I wished Atkins luck getting that done!

But I actually think with Bieber he has potentially transformed the team and imo given them the most Cone-like option possible. There is no reliever that is Henke in his prime, but I give him credit for significant upgrades there too. He didn't mess too much with the position players either (aside from the invading France.) Atkins gets an A from me.

Only FA I see on Atlanta that is of note is their closer Raisel Iglesias who isn't having a good year due to the long ball (1.6 HR/9). AA seems to like having guys signed long term and to avoid contract years.

So who is this year's Zobrist that we will hear about for the next 10 years?

AA chose to hold on to Raisel Iglesias (and Marcell Ozuna, though he can't be traded without permission).

I know it's supply and demand, but it does seem incongruous that multiple relievers cost as much or more than the best bat on the market.

I've seen the incongruence in the trade deadline markets for pitching vs hitting explained recently in supply & demand terms that pitching is more in demand & thus more expensive simply because every contending team is always in the market to add pitching.

The hitting market however is much more subsegmented. Contenders generally look for bats as well, but value additions wildly differently based on their own roster construction & positional needs.

So the trade market for rental bats can be a lot softer depending on how the contenders are currently filling out their starting 9.

Can anyone offer me some explanation for why Varland’s newfound ability to limit home runs is sustainable?

I'm certainly no Baseball Savant expert, but a quick look at his 2025 statline shows a 10 point increase in GB%, almost reducing FB% by half with maintenance of LD% & HardHit%.

Savant also shows his Launch Angle against down 8 points to 3.7 degs.

So his switch to the bullpen isn't inducing more soft contact, but whatever he's doing in 2025 is making batters drive the ball into the ground with the same ferocity & making him very difficult to get loft underneath the ball.

His 2025 1.5 % HR rate seems unsustainable, but even if normalized back to around 5% where it was previously, the fact that he's inducing hard GBs & suppressing so many FBs suggests that his past HR issues would still remain lower simply by reducing the # of opportunities.

Except his fastball was the pitch he gave up the most homers with. This year no one has hit one out.

Cheers. As I examine the page more it looks like the knuckle curve is a truly dominant pitch for him- I assume it tunnels very well especially for lefties who seem especially prone to rolling over on him now.

I thought they might chase another lefty, but looks like Varland is especially well suited to dealing with difficult LHB

I imagine touching 100 this year has something to do with that

Yeah looks like no more cutter or slider, a new knickle curve, and huge velo increase on his 4seamer.

Kind of a totally different pitcher.

AA’s highest payroll in 2015 they ended the year 10th highest in baseball and 3rd highest in the division paying 68% of what the Yankees did. Today they sit at 5th in mlb and 84% of the Yankees’ wage bill.

It’s entirely disingenuous to compare a team that was reportedly passing the hat around in the offseason to buy a fifth starter because ownership had halted spending to one that has in successive years made three offers over 500million dollars to individual players.

AA bears the blame in that instance. He had a budget enveloppe and spent up to it at the start of the season. He has admitted that was a mistake, which he corrected the very following season.

It’s true that the recent teams have spent more, but credit should go to Shapiro for convincing Rogers to do this. Beeston either would not or could not.

I know Beeston was much beloved, but he was an accountant. He made money for Rogers. Did convince Rogers to up the payroll in 2013, but when that team went down in flames, Rogers cut off the money. Leading to the 2014 season where the Jays were in it, yet stood pat at the deadline because of "payroll parameters" (a term thank goodness I haven't heard in years).

At least Shapiro has convinced Rogers that spending money to make money might be a better strategy than being cheap.

I declare we make a new rule at da box where a thread becomes officially closed when the infamous initials of one former GM are bandied about.

I think credit should go to the guy that built a division winner that drove gates back up. Rebuilt a farm system from basically a spreadsheet into something resembling a functional division and rebranded the club so people weren’t embarrassed to wear that terrible rogers millennium black and silver crap.

Ed wanted a loyal solider in the front office. He just did the same to Masai who should never have been let go.

Where does this narrative that Shapiro “convinced” Ed Rogers to do anything come from?

Where does this narrative that Shapiro “convinced” Ed Rogers to do anything come from?

From me.

I don't think it was Rogers that forced AA to go hat in hand asking the players for money. I think Beeston just has this stubborn mentality that once they have a set budget, they would not exceed it, so I don't think he went and asked Rogers if they can get some extra money for a 5th starter. He if he did go and ask, I think Rogers would have okayed it.

Beeston had some old skool beliefs he would not change like 5 year contracts to pitchers or performance bonuses, etc.

Unless you’re one of those two people then I don’t believe that is the case.

Whenever this comes up I feel I need to reiterate that AA didn't really sell the farm and did a good job with the ninja trades - not just in the final year.

That said, Atkins and org get a lot of benefit of the doubt from me on any deals for major league players as the ability to evaluate major league players for FA signings and trades has been a strength of the organization. It is drafting/developing that's been more of a problem (and getting lucky in the playoffs).

And historically maybe culture/accountability, but I think this year is again showing that winning creates good culture (and losing the complement) as much as the opposite. With many of the same faces the culture this year seems excellent, after being a question mark the last couple of years.

SK, I agree that there's a good chance Varland is a better reliever the rest of 2025 than Bednar (even throwing out last night). And I don't think Bednar is acquired for the same cost. I think Atkins is clearly paying that with a view to Varland as a high-leverage bullpen arm for years, even if he also appreciates it's impossible to know what sort of pitcher Varland will be on 2030. The thing that is that this level of team control is something the Twins value, as it comes at no cost to them, and is worked into the valuation.

Perhaps it's the Erik Swanson experience clouding my sample sizes, but all the talk on acquiring Swanson was that he had three years of team control and only the first year was of any value to the Jays.

Particularly in light of the price that seem to have been paid by other clubs, I think my presence would have been to attack the deadline differently, especially since they already dealt Stephen (which is a gamble I think made sense).

I am guilty of doing exactly what you accuse me and saying that if Pittsburgh accepted New York's 22nd and 28th prospect, we should have paid that price, but maybe Cherington particularly liked those names and asked for much better guys from the Jays or players that Atkins is very high on internally.