Ben Turner@benturn22

Passan on Blair and Barker: “I think Jays get one more starter and one more reliever; is the starter a guy with more ceiling like Shane Bieber, or is it someone like Adrian Houser”. #BlueJays

Bieber was pitching through discomfort in 2023. His FB MPH average has been highest this year in rehab than his career avg.

Ken Rosenthal@Ken_Rosenthal

BREAKING: Phillies close to acquiring Jhoan Duran from Twins, sources tell @TheAthletic

Kwan is more than just an OBP guy. When healthy, he provides a good blend of offense as a leadoff hitter (pesky PAs with a very low K rate, solid OBP, a bit of pop (14 HR last year), some SBs) and good defense in LF. And his postseason resume is excellent, compiled over 80 PA.

Not sure how healthy he is this year or whether he’s slowing down a bit at age almost 28.

Tyler Rogers traded away by the Giants so I guess they've decided 2025 isn't their year (smart imo). Guess that means Robbie Ray is available. He would fit nicely (signed for 2026, pitching well, was popular here and did well in the AL East). Could go for the old HOF staff with Justin Verlander I guess but I can't see it (last 5 starts 3-6-2 2/3-5-5 IP). Best hitter in SF is Matt Chapman but I don't see him coming back ($25+ mil a year through 2030, age 37). Still, another seller is a good thing.

Ok, a few people are saying it's Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait for Duran. That seems like a good-yet-sane trade.

Ray would be a good get. An extra year too, and he's looked the best he has in years.

I don't see the Rogers trade as having anything to do with Robbie Ray. Giants are going to try to contend next year. Imagine anyone else expiring is available though.

Kwan would be nice - he'd give the Jays a legit leadoff hitter with strong defense in LF. Good combo. Price will be high though (free agent post '27). Probably any OF added would shift Barger back to 3B and open a OF slot for Loperfido/Lukes/Straw/Schneider to share (depending on matchups). Loperfido I saw as pure trade bait before his callup and him going on a tear (192 wRC+ after today's game). Plus adding an OF could cause a 2026 logjam with Springer-Varsho-Santander all here plus Barger-Loperfido-Lukes-Straw-Schneider-Roden-Clase-Pinango-Schreck and probably more I'm not thinking of.

Buster Olney@Buster_ESPN

The Phillies swap Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel to the Twins for Jhoan Duran.

Kwan makes the glut of lefty OFs more expendable. Though I do think sitting Kwan sometimes vs LHP is a good idea, given his splits (you end up with Schneider/Santander/Springer or any other players whose last names start with S and end with r in there sometimes).

But a leadoff hitter with good OBP and speed would be a big get for this team and for the playoffs.

They should get Kwan and Robert Jr. and keep Springer far away from the OF.

Good trade for the Phillies, not convinced in either of the prospects heading back.

Don’t know how Tait would be ranked now, but pre season was outside of Law’s top 100, FWIW. Abel was also outside. I guess the Twins were just high on those guys? Because doesn’t that seem like a beatable price? I’m surprised he would go a day early (which to me means they were “wowed”)

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

The New York Mets are finalizing a deal to acquire closer Ryan Helsley, sources tell ESPN.

Welp...Bednar or bust! C'mon Cherington, help your old pals out.

Pipeline now has them both Top 100. Fangraphs neither. Tait 45+, Abel 40. FG downgrades pitchers though, because how often they get injured.

I would prefer to see the Blue Jays land an impact controllable bat or SP, and then go get a competent reliever rental to bolster the bullpen, rather than burn their best prospects to get an elite controllable reliever.

Can i interest you in....nothing at all?

What? There are still 22+ hours to the deadline and a number of good players available.

Young catchers have a high bust rate... and Abel has leveled off in his development and now has more of a No. 3-4 starter ceiling. Chance for more, and the change of scenery could be good.

Mets have a deeper system than the Jays and are using it to make good deals. Funny enough, the Mets seem to have given more to the Giants than the Cardinals.

Ken Rosenthal reposted
Will Sammon@WillSammon

The Mets are sending Jesus Baez, Nate Dohm and Frank Elissalt to the Cardinals in the deal for Ryan Helsley, league sources tells @TheAthletic

Good trade for the Mets.

Sportsnet 590 The FAN@FAN590

“I think Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner and Davis Schneider are available… Does a guy like Harrison Bader make sense?”

@JeffPassan shares what the #BlueJays are looking for in a position player at the trade deadline with
@SNJeffBlair & Kevin Barker.

The Duran trade feels like a nice sell high from Dombrowski. Tait is an 18 year old catcher in A-ball so massive lottery ticket, and Abel’s ceiling might be closer to bottom of the rotation at this point. Nice deal for the Phillies for a controllable closer.

The late inning options for the Jays seem to be dwindling. Bednar is still out there, not sure who else.

If the Twins are doing somewhat of a rebuild, and that was the return for Duran, then what would the likely return for Ryan be?

Jon Morosi@jonmorosi

Eugenio Suárez suitors include the Cubs, Mariners, and Tigers, with less than 24 hours to go before the deadline.

The Cubs have a .575 OPS at 3B this season, 2nd worst in
@MLB

Suárez went 1-for-4 today in his return to the DBacks starting lineup.

What hitters are available and interesting? 120+ wRC+ or better otherwise why bother imo. OF/3B only - everything else full.

• OF: Kyle Stowers (Miami), Byron Buxton (Min), James Wood (Wsh), Corbin Carroll (Ari), Alec Burleson (StL), Mike Trout (LAA)
• 3B: Eugenio Suárez (Ari), José Ramírez (Cle), Matt Chapman (SF), Maikel Garcia (KC)

Now, most of those guys are NOT available, their teams suck but they are under long term deals (Carroll, Trout, Ramirez, Chapman, Buxton) thus unlikely to be dealt, or are very young/years from FA (Stowers, Wood, Garcia, Burleson).

Basically, to improve on offense the Jays would need to get a guy not doing 'wow' right now and hope. Unless they get a surprise or Suarez (very unlikely).

Thus pitching is it. Most likely relief. Most likely someone we never thought of.

There's been too much quiet for two clubs so far: Cleveland and Toronto. I suspect a deal is in the works. I'm hopeful they have a deal there and another one with Pittsburgh for Bednar.

from The Athletic
Ken Rosenthal·Senior Writer, MLB

Pirates are likely to keep right-hander Mitch Keller
-------------------
Mark Feinsand@Feinsand

The Astros are making a big push for Dylan Cease, with one source saying the starter is Houston’s “main target.”
----------------------
Mark Feinsand@Feinsand

The Reds are acquiring RHP Zack Littell from the Rays, per source. @JeffPassan was on it.
----------------------
Mark Feinsand@Feinsand

The Cubs are acquiring RHP Michael Soroka from the Nationals, per source. @Ken_Rosenthal was on it.

Dylan Cease isn't that exciting to me - 88 ERA+ this year, 101 over the past 3 years (484 2/3 IP over 3 years). His 2022 was amazing (180 ERA+ 2nd in Cy voting) and he is a free agent post 2025. Yeah, he'd be a nice get, but safe to say the price is silly high. If Houston wants him that bad, so be it.

From Cleveland only Kwan and Ramirez catch my eye as worth chasing, and either would be a kings ransom (Ramirez with no-trade clause). Also Cade Smith in their pen but he isn't a free agent until after 2029 so I doubt he is available. I keep looking at teams relievers but there are sooooo many out there who are decent but not 'wow'. Griffin Jax probably the best available right now, Mason Miller woudl be sweet to get. Did you know Little has more K/9 than Chapman (13.41 vs 13.29)?

Derrick Goold@dgoold
#stlcards are flying to San Diego tonight, but not the entire roster.

Phil Maton will hang back in STL and Steven Matz also plans to remain STL as team moves forward with talks to trade one or both relievers ahead of tomorrow's deadline ...

forget about Matz

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

The Boston Red Sox are finalizing a trade to acquire left-handed reliever Steven Matz from the St. Louis Cardinals, sources tell ESPN. The deal is agreed to and pending medical review.

Suárez to Ms for a haul.

Phil Maton would be nice - 11.3 K/9 vs 3.5 BB/9 0.2 HR/9, 178 ERA+ - very solid for the past 3 years (133 ERA+ over 168 IP, 9.7 K/9 vs 3.4 BB/9) so he'd be nice as another pressure guy. Free agent post 2025.

Eddie Micheletti pulled from Van game?????

Ken Rosenthal@Ken_Rosenthal

Source confirms: Mariners in agreement to acquire 3B Eugenio Suárez from Diamondbacks for 1B Tyler Locklear, RHP Hunter Cranton and RHP Juan Burgos. Still details to be finalized. First with agreement, names:
@JeffPassan, @DKramer_

Seems a bit light on the return for Suarez imo. None were a top 100 prospect.

That's a pretty light return for Suarez... thats what a bidding war gets you?

Beltre and Micheletti Jr. both pulled early from their games. Nimmala's DHing so not sure about him but neither of the other two are key prospects.

Micheletti Jr. does have an OPS close to .800 so I could see him as part of a return for a middle reliever type. Beltre could just be due to playing a doubleheader.

Nimmala still in game

For a hitter the more I think the more I see a RH lefty killer as being the target. Once healthy (assuming Santander gone for 2025) the OF would be Loperfido/Schneider, Varsho, Lukes/Straw with Straw going to CF to give Varsho days off vs tough LHP.

Checking wRC+ over the past 2 years vs LHP as a RHH you get Judge, Miguel Andujar (A's 3B/OF free agent post 2025, currently has a 99 wRC+ overall, but 187 vs LHP). Huh, I might have found a match right away - 228 innings at 3B this year, 204 in LF a few at 1B/RF as well. Wouldn't cost much as he is in his free agent year with a terrible team. Very poor on defense sadly, but he'd be traded for his bat instead. I'm sure one of him or Schneider could handle RF.

That would also mean Barger to 3B, with Clement flip flopping vs LHP between 3B and 2B. Might be the cheapest way to improve the team's offense. Rob Refsnyder with the Red Sox is another option (FA post '25) but is more a DH these days.

All moot if the Jays feel Santander will return. He'd take over a corner (Springer DH) with everyone else fighting for 1 OF slot (Loperfido/Schneider/Lukes/Straw, maybe even Barger).

Return for Suarez is very light.
A right handed first baseman who hasn't hit in MLB and 2 relievers?

I am not seeing DMs trading their first round picks.

Cleveland is at .500. No reasons to sell.

Given the rankings, I expect the Yankees to get a starter and the Rangers to do more.

How would people feel if the Blue Jays acquisitions today were Kelly and Maton? They might not be the sexiest moves, but they have both performed very well this year and wouldn’t cost nearly as much in prospects as, say, Ryan and Jax. Here’s ESPN on Kelly:

“Kelly might be viewed as more of a grind-it-out innings eater, but that feels like a bit of a disservice to his ability, especially since he's pitching well with a 2.56 ERA over his past 10 starts, lowering his season ERA to 3.22. After getting knocked out early in his second start of the season, he has gone at least five innings in every start since then, usually going six or seven. His superlative work in the 2023 postseason (2.25 ERA across four starts) is another reason he's a fit with any contender.”

There was a report from a very reliable source, Mark Feinsand, that the Guardians were shopping both Kwan and Bieber. They're competing but they're also trying to get cheaper - just like the Rays.

Thought Suarez would get more BUT I think a lot of times, teams really like a specific guy way more than rankings do. Like, let's say Arizona thinks Locklear is an everyday 1Bman right now and they have him as a top-100 prospect themselves. It's very difficult to know what another team could have done to match that. Like, maybe the Yankees were being asked for Schlittler or something. That being said, hitters very rarely get huge hauls at the deadline. Pitchers are just so much more valuable during the playoffs that they tend to fetch a ton.

That being said, I think the Helsey price was very reasonable so wonder what Cardinals were asking for Jays. I also think Duran went for less than I expected (both top-100 prospects but I think both are a bit overrated. If I were Twins, I would have held out for one prospect that I loved and then a flyer or two). I am certain Jays will make move today and I am hoping it's a surprise one. I think SD holds a lot of the card right now. Like, if they get Miller, would they trade Suarez? Not Oakland is clearly open to trading Miller as they are holding him out of games.

Rumours about Maton who Ks a lot of guys despite throwing like 89 MPH. For me, he, like Coulombe, is a backup get if you can't find a closer-type. Of the supposedly available guys: Don't like Fairbanks much (K rate dropping). Bednar is best reliever available. Dennis Santana is OK. Suarez I like but doesn't K enough guys for someone who throws that hard. Doval is like Dominguez (wild and throws hard) but with more closing experience so I'd take him. Brock Stewart another good reliever. Halvorson throws 100. Love him even if numbers aren't great because Colorado screws pitchers up. Vodnik throws 98 so similar. Bird doesn't throw very hard but has been successful. All those guys are under contract for years so would be interesting.

Jays on verge of getting Bieber!

Mark Feinsand@Feinsand

Per source, the Blue Jays are closing in on a deal with the Guardians for Shane Bieber, who made his fourth rehab start the other night. @jonmorosi was on it.

Bieber for Khal Stephen. Wow. Seems like a lot to give up for a rental starter coming off surgery.

If the Jays don't add a bat that pushes Clement out of the lineup vs. RHP, they aren't serious about contending.

"If the Jays don't add a bat that pushes Clement out of the lineup vs. RHP, they aren't serious about contending."

Varsho and Gimenez could both do that but both of them will certainly do that.

Just seems like an insane price to pay for someone who has pitched 12 innings in 2 years and if he's good will be a free agent and if he's bad or hurt will cost you $16M next year.

How? You'll still see Barger in RF, where he doesn't belong, and Clement at 3B. Unless you're suggesting that Loperfido will take Clement's spot, which I highly doubt.

BA ranked Stephen as the team’s #5 prospect post-draft and said, “Stephen has midrotation upside but is more than likely a No. 5 starter with a middle relief floor.”

Looks to me like the front office is following its previous MO: trading non-core prospects who have some value to other clubs. I highly doubt Yesavage and Nimmala are getting traded.

I am SO happy about this acquisition. Bieber has Ryan upside for far low cost. Now there is a big caveat for me. Can they resign him? If yes this trade is like Berrios 2.0 but better. If they have him for this year only then it's too steep a price.

Love this trade and hope he resigns or exercises his option for 2026. This guy has a Halladay-esque mentality on the mound. Kind of like Scherzer too.

Interesting deal. Bieber has a top of the rotation ceiling but is a few years removed from that due to injury, and we don’t know how he will do over the next 2 months. High risk, high reward gamble, which is fairly uncommon for this front office. If he comes back strong, then the Jays added a potential Game 1 or 2 starter in a playoff series, so I could see the logic behind it. If he doesn’t pan out then it’s $16M next season, which is not nothing, so they are definitely banking on him having a great final 2-3 months.

Well, that's quite a gamble. While I'm reticent for Stephan to be the cost, I love the boldness. Jeez, when's the last time Atkins did anything bold? If he's healthy (I know, I know), that's a frontliner for a playoff rotation. Spifficus-approved.

Bieber is an excellent acquisition. It will be interesting to see the plan for the rotation now.

I like the move. As mentioned, Stephen has great numbers in the minors but he was likely ultimately a back-end SP in the majors. Also he was recently added to the IL for some reason.

I assume Bieber looked strong in his rehab starts. He now has a couple of months to tune up in the majors for a possible postseason run. It could work out well for Toronto.

I can see a 6 man rotation in September when they have an extra reliever. How many more starts will Bieber need in minors? Maybe 2?

The Jays are a top 5 payroll team with money coming off the books after this season. If Bieber has a strong finish to the season, and both parties are interested in a reunion, then I think there would be a strong chance that he’s back. Unless he’s a Boras guy, which changes everything. Cross that bridge when you get there, though. First let’s hope he’s healthy and effective.

I concur that I like the boldness from a typically more risk averse front office. They didn’t need high floor in the rotation, they needed an ace. This was probably their best shot of getting one at a reasonable cost. Whether he pitches like one remains to be seen.

I feel that this FO had to feel out Bieber's willingness to exercise his option.

Agreed that another bat is needed for RHP to push Clement to bench. Unless Loperfido is the LF option and Barger at 3B.

This trade tells me that Alcantara and Ryan were prohibitively expensive. I watched some Alcantara recently and I'm changing my opinion on him. Dude looks scary legit again despite the numbers.

Bieber was drafted after Shapiro left Cleveland but there's debate as to whether he was "picked" by Shapiro or Antonetti. Shapiro loves strong make up guys.

Bieber isn't a Boras guy.

That being said, if he's effective for Toronto down the stretch, I don't see any way he exercises his option (although that'll be valuable for the 2025 club).

I'm sure there's going to be a full court press to sell him on signing an extension here, but I don't see why a healthy Bieber wouldn't want to explore his market.

Bieber isn't a Boras guy.

That being said, if he's effective for Toronto down the stretch, I don't see any way he exercises his option (although that'll be valuable for the 2025 club).

I'm sure there's going to be a full court press to sell him on signing an extension here, but I don't see why a healthy Bieber wouldn't want to explore his market.

“Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024 and could return to a big-league mound in the next couple weeks. He made a rehab start for Double-A Akron on Tuesday, when he threw 58 pitches over four innings and tallied seven strikeouts” —The Athletic

That's a big swing.

Biebs' rehab stats


11.1 IP, 21K/1BB, 1.59ERA

Good call dalimon suggesting a trade for Bieber. Nailed it!

Excellent acquisition. The message is clear that they are playing to win in 2025. The FO correctly identified the club's needs and has done well in meeting those needs.

I guess this means they are down on Manoah’s chances of coming back and being an impact player right away.

Thanks I really like Bieber.

"I'm sure there's going to be a full court press to sell him on signing an extension here, but I don't see why a healthy Bieber wouldn't want to explore his market."

Something interesting to consider is Bieber could have signed for more money last off season but decided to stay with Cleveland on a friendly deal to rehab. I remember reports that he signed for less. Perhaps he is more about Goals/relationships/trust etc than money.

Perhaps Jays sign him to a Lugo-esque deal in the next week or two. That would be ideal before he goes all Bieber-mode and prices himself out.

Out of the blue post...

For me the acquisition of the summer has been TB getting Forest Whitley and turning him into an elite SP again in the minors. Not to hijack this thread but I haven't found an opportune time to post.

Is Forest Whitley the get of the summer and the next ace the Rays deliver? Paging Mr Hulet...

Exactly. Trading Bieber doesn't weaken them since he hasn't played this year and he's a free agent.

I just don’t think the 2025 stretch run and postseason was the right time for Manoah to reappear in the majors and entrench himself as a mid- or front-rotation SP. That would be much pressure on him to be consistently good and durable right away. Bieber is in a better position to perform well under that pressure, and his rehab stats suggest that he’s progressing well.

So how does this impact the roster?

Bieber to the rotation. Do they go six man or drop one? I don't think pitchers like a six man rotation long term, so I would expect Lauer to the bullpen.

Paxton Schultz or Nance could be sent down.

What about the 40 man? I don't think Bloss is on the 60 day IL yet, thats probably the move. When Santander, Manoah and Bastardo come off the 60 day more moves will be required.

Anyone else feel the Jays are working on something bigger?

Manoah, Loperfido, Schneider and Wagner...will they all be on the team tonight?

Nimalla, Yesavage, Bloss, Tiedemann, Rojas, Roden and Kasevich... still here after the deadline?

I wonder if Bieber will be used they way Andrew Miller was for Cleveland, as a multi-inning power arm, at least for the regular season. Might help with building up his workload ahead of the playoffs.

"How? You'll still see Barger in RF, where he doesn't belong, and Clement at 3B. Unless you're suggesting that Loperfido will take Clement's spot, which I highly doubt."

I think Schneider is addicted to playing Clement (managers just love gritty players who can do a bit of everything) but also yes, Loperfido won't be in the majors to sit everyday so Clement would definitely sit against a lot of RHP.

It should be noted that Bieber is still a major injury risk. His rehab had to be shut down earlier this season due to elbow soreness. He has pitched very few innings in his recent rehab stint (although he’s progressed from 2 to 3 to 4 innings and has excelled in those outings).

Jays need a reliever and to also clear out some of the depth they have. I expect at least one of Wagner, Roden, Clase, Schneider, or Loperdfido to be traded.

I predict two of thefollowing for Jays moves today:

A) Mason Miller to Toronto for a haul

Or

B) David Bednar or Griffin Jax for non top 100 prospects

+

C) Ramon Laureano or Willi Castro come to Toronto

This FO (I think) wants more upside in BP and a lefty masher (think about how Lane Thomas best Tarik Skubal in playoffs last year).

Shi Davidi:

Blue Jays don't give up Stephen without the plan to extend Shane Bieber.

There's no way Toronto sends Lauer to the pen. Either they go six-man, which makes a ton of sense for extra rest or they do a piggyback with Bieber.

I don't mind the trade if they re-up Bieber but Stephen is a lot for a rental with question marks despite the great pedigree.

After losing Watts-Brown and Stephen, I can't see the club trading any more AA and up SP prospects. I could see more complementary pieces like Maton, Andujar, etc. Big swings are likely done.

Toronto is always fighting to convince good FAs to come here so in acquiring Bieber now, it gives him a chance.to experience the clubhouse culture, the raucous Rogers Centre, the country, etc. Plus he knows Gimenez, Straw, Clement, etc.

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

The A's are receiving shortstop Leodalis De Vries, the No. 3 overall prospect in baseball, along with three pitchers from San Diego for Mason Miller and J.P. Sears, sources tell ESPN.

A quick observation on Bieber - each of his rehab starts has been on 6 days rest, and he has built up from 32 to 43 to 58 pitches. He likely needs at least one, but probably two or three more rehab starts to be fully stretched out. If he starts on Aug. 5th and 12th, that might put him in line to be added to the MLB roster on Aug. 18th or 19th against Pittsburgh. A lot can happen between now and then...

That's a nice high upside play. Anf i bet they think they can extend him. I like.

How much better than Nimmala is Leodalis De Vries? Looks like Nimmala is outhitting him this year.

Padres apparently looking to move Suarez. Could see a fit there with the Jays who could trade outfield depth (ex. Roden).

dalimon, Law had him at 13th in the sport. He’s 18 years old and the youngest player in High A. “Definite shortstop who might end up as a plus”. A switch hitter also.

There’s no doubt in my mind that the Jays intend of extending Bieber. Whether it happens is a different story but this feels like a move to not only increase the 2025 ceiling but also spend the next few months selling Bieber on the organization, city, culture, etc. It worked with Berrios. Let’s see what happens here. First and foremost, he needs to prove he’s healthy and back to pre-TJ levels.

I didn't realize that super young Nimmala was a full year older. That makes sense now why one is rated so much higher.

I honestly don’t know how they could come to anything sort of a fair value extension without seeing him healthy and effective for the rest of the season.

Unless its a short term extension where they guarantee more of his 2026 money and push the payer option out another year.

Gave up a lot for a post-surgery rehab guy.

I think somebody’s oh extreme control will do very well with a good defense like the jays behind him.

Jays taking a risk, but with a potential high reward. But do we know Cleveland isn't taking a risk as well? Stephan pitched a half season in the minors and has already hit the IL. What is his injury? Sprained ankle? Elbow? Shoulder? Impossible to grade this trade without knowing.

This is a massive risk that I think has a greater chance of failing than succeeding. 
BUT, the upside is so great that I love the move. I'd much rather take this chance than add another #6 starter.  You can always find those guys if you are willing to be creative. 

Our past #5 prospects, since 2012, include: Tiedemann, Leo Jimenez, Yosver Zulueta, Kevin Smith, Orelvis, Nate Pearson, Rowdy, Richard Urena, Jeff Hoffman(!), Daniel Norris, and Justin Nicolino. The risk isn't as steep as some think...

Yes precisely. If they traded Yesavage or even Rojas for Bieber I would be concerned. They are trading a minor league pitcher with 18 games under his belt (only 1 above A+). They're getting a former Cy Young pitcher coming back from surgery. Medicals will be reviewed.

Bieber is a much safer bet going forward to me than Scherzer. He's likely similar to Manoah in ability to come back. Likely worse case scenario is he is ineffective and you eat 16 million next year. That isn't supported by his track record or rehab appearances. Likely best case scenario is a true #1 pitcher to pair with Gausman for a competitive 1-2 punch.

Obviously there are the extreme possibilities of him never returning again or him returning and becoming a top 3 pitcher in baseball again. I don't think either of those scenarios will happen though. Just a good to very good SP on the mend who you have to give up a borderline top 100 prospect for right now.

If he's healthy rest of this year and performs well then he's basically the best free agent pitcher after Dylan Cease and likely more attractive because of a shorter contract length (age) and consistency to performance. Let's see how much he likes the cotton candy fries and ketchup chips now.

That's an insane amount to give up for a closer. I know Miller is under control but he's still a closer. Padres are not trading Suarez which will give them an absolutely insane bullpen of Miller, Suarez, Adam, Estrada, Morejohn, and more.

Padres have been shopping their closer Suarez to free up salary and that will probably intensify now that they have Miller.

Padres are not trading Suarez

Where did you hear this?

From MLBTR:

It also sets the stage for a fair bit of other dealing from the Padres, who’ve been discussing current closer Robert Suarez and righty Dylan Cease in trade talks. Either or both could change hands now in trades that simultaneously net younger talent and free up payroll space for San Diego to pursue upgrades in left field, behind the plate and/or on the bench.

The "risk" for the Jays is whether Bieber can come back and be effective this season, and/or whether they can extend him.

I don't see much "risk" in trading away Stephen. He was a low-impact 2nd round pick who came out better than expected and dominated High A (which to some degree shouldn't be surprising considering that he was a polished SEC pitcher), but his stuff still isn't overpowering and likely projects as a back-end starter. He got promoted to AA and got hit hard in his first outing (2 HR's allowed) and then seems to have gotten hurt. He looks like a good pitcher, but he also looks like a real sell-high candidate who may start to look more ordinary against better competition. Either way, this is the type of player that you should expect to be able to replace. Its not like they can't find a similar college pitcher in next year's draft.

another angle to be aware of: this move will have pushed the Jays above the third competitive balance threshold. Meaning even higher tax rates, and having your first round pick moved back by 10 spots.

As a first time payor (Jays were able to reset their payroll last year with the sell off) the Jays will pay a 6 million dollar tax bill.

They only drop their draft pick 10 places if they exceed the threshold base by 40 million or more this year.

Are they 40 million over with Bieber's pro rated amount?

This is the type of move I like - high risk/high reward. The risk is the prospect develops and the cash lost - pitching prospects are a major crapshoot (all pitchers are one pitch away from a career ending injury, but all can also find a new pitch and suddenly become 'wow'). The cash is secondary - who cares if Rogers can afford another yacht or not?

Bieber lifetime has a 133 ERA+ - that is WOW territory. But has a 5 ERA in the playoffs (due to a terrible first start mostly - 4 2/3 IP in 2020 vs NYY 7 R allowed) but 2 solid ones in 2022 (13 1/3 IP 8 H 3 R/ER 4 BB 15 K). IE: if he is ready by October he is exactly what we want in exchange for a guy who pre-season wasn't that high up (my summary of a batch of prospect rankings had him 13th behind Arjun Nimmala, Trey Yesavage, Ricky Tiedemann, Orelvis Martinez, Jake Bloss, Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, Kendry Rojas, Adam Macko, Will Wagner, Charles McAdoo, and Brandon Barriera. Highest anyone had him was 6th [MLB Pipeline] with Keith Law at 9th, BA 11th, FG 17th, BP didn't have him in the top 20, we had him 12th).

So is Cleveland our official AAAA team yet? Sure seems like it doesn't it?