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We head into the all-star break with three games in San Diego. The Jays are 3-3 so far on their west coast trip. The next three will decide whether its a winning trip or a losing one. The Padres are 46-47 and are 3-7 in their last ten games so they are coming in on the colder side. The Jays have a two game, dragon inspired, win streak.

Some of the Padre hitters are not having good season. Xander Bogaerts is hitting .225, Manny Machado sports a .193 BA. Fernando Tatis Jr is hitting .283 but has just five home runs. Does that remind you of anyone?


SCHEDULE

Friday: Bieber vs Sears

Saturday: Yesavage vs Buehler

Sunday: Gausman vs Marquez


All three Jays starting pitchers in this series have had issues recently. Can they each out it together for one more start before the break? And can Vlad, Springer and Kirk get hot in San Diego?

Jays at Padres: Jul 10-12; Will the Dragon Stay Hot? | 117 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#479957) #
There are 10 teams behind the Jays in the standings. Jays record vs those teams is 23-11, .676 winning %. That is basically winning 2 of every 3.

Jays record vs teams ahead of them is 21-38, .356 winning %. That is basically winning 1 of 3. Padres are ahead of us.
scottt - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#479958) #
The Padres are a bigger disappointment than the Jays. 
They've been carried up by Ty France.

Bogaerts has a .642 OPS.
Machado is hitting .193 with a .700 OPS.
Tatis has 5 HR and a 103 OPS+.
Michael King has been decent. but we're not seeing him..
Sears, the shade of Walker Buehler and German Marquez have ERA+ at 90, 82 and 83.
Nigel - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#479960) #
Ernie is one of my favourite players. Yet, I have trouble thinking of a worse leadoff hitter. His low OBP and that he rarely takes pitches is just wrong. Sadly, I then try and think of a better option. If Vladdy isn’t an option then I’m not sure there is one:(
Glevin - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#479961) #
Back to the usual. Vladdy killing worms and backend starters giving up HR's. Sigh.
hypobole - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#479962) #
Vlad now behind only Junior Caminero for GDP's.  
Maybe Vlad should bat leadoff. At least that is one guaranteed PA with  no runner on 1st to kill. :(
June Northey - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#479963) #
The Nance trade is an odd one - he cost only cash to get in '24, now we get Ryan Sprock (781 OPS in '25, 855 in '26 mostly in A at age 21). He plays C/3B/LF while also covering 1B/2B in college (plus pitched, but not well). He might be useful - I suspect his bat looks tempting enough to move him from C to 3B/LF full time (thus freeing up more health/playing time) and will be in Vancouver (A+).

The IFA cap space is odd though - Jays normally try to gain more of that, not give it up. Is the next IFA class a weak one?
Nigel - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#479964) #
Brutal AB by Varsho. You really really have to hate the idea of Springer playing in the OF to play Varsho against a LH.
scottt - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#479965) #
A strong arm is lost in LF and he would have to hit for power to play 3B. He's more a base stealer than a HR hitter. Nothing wrong with an athletic catcher who can hit a bit.
uglyone - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#479966) #
Varsho vLH: 121wrc+
Varsho vRH: 92wrc+
Nigel - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#479967) #
Not exactly his career stats:)
June Northey - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#479968) #
Daulton Varsho lifetime pre-tonight - 94 wRC+ vs LHP (599 PA), 100 vs RHP (2084 PA) - actually not a bad split.  Kind of surprised, I was sure it'd be a lot worse.
scottt - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#479969) #
He used to bunt a fair bit against lefties. That evened the score as those were hits.
scottt - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#479971) #
Class has not looked bad in LF.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#479972) #
That's an interesting patch on the sleeve of the Padres' jerseys.  It looks like a fortune-teller?
scottt - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#479973) #
It's la Catrina from Dia de la Muerte.
They're close to Mexico.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#479974) #
As a Jay

Varsho vLH 114wrc+
Varsho vRH 93wrc+

Last 2yrs

vLH 111
vRH 110


hypobole - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#479975) #
Jays have not won a series against a team currently ahead of them in the standings since May. Gotta think they'll snap that streak this weekend.

Which Beuhler will show up? The June version who only gave up 1 run in each of his 5 starts? Or the July version rocked for 16 runs in 9 IP?
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 01:40 AM EDT (#479979) #
Well, 1 1/2 out of the playoffs, that is the good news. Bad is they are still the 11th worst team in MLB, in a virtual tie with the Red Sox and Astros for 10-12th worst teams. What a weird year.
TamRa - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#479980) #
Varsho started the night with an OPS of .571 since coming off of the IL

Have to suspect the residual effects of the injury or the guard is having an effect

Still, he swung himself out of a walk on two pitches in on his hands late. That's bad judgement not bad wrist.
***
that 30-pitch inning was a killer but tip of the cap to Bieber for not letting this one spiral. Maybe some hope there yet.
***
13 shutout innings in a row now for Hoff, with 17 K and only 4 hits
***
I enjoyed Madison's work on the broadcast tonight
hypobole - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#479983) #
Last year Bo led the team with 94 RBI's. Vlad and George were 10 back with 84 apiece.

For 21 teams this season, the gap between their RBI leader and 2nd place is 10 or fewer. 6 others the gaps are 11-17. Reds and A's, the gaps are 21.

Which leaves the Jays with their gap of 24. Kaz has 62 RBI's, 2nd place Vlad has 38. That 38 is also the lowest 2nd place number on any team. The only other under 40 are the Padres with 39.



pooks137 - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#479985) #
I fell asleep before the big 4 run inning when the Jays were still down 2-1.

I woke around 2 am & quickly watched the scoring highlights to see what I had missed.

I was initially excited to see that Vlad had tied the game on a RBI single according to the highlight description.

Only to be immediately disappointed again to watch the clip, discovering the RBI single was a poor contact, chopped swinging bunt to 3B.

dalimon5 - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#479986) #
Vlad is like a top of the line, rare and hard to source kitchen appliance. Beautiful, bold, expensive and cooks to perfection - when it works. Right now it's not working ideally, it could be that the appliance is drawing too much current from the breaker, it could be that it needs self cleaning or it could simply be the venting needs to be optimized.

Whining about it doesn't change the fact that it will kick into gear and start working beautifully again and there's really nothing for us to do until then. Reminds of of Christmas Vacation and the strands of Christmas lights and complicated numbers of bulbs and extensions and he couldn't figure out why it wouldn't turn on but when it did it made Christmas special, when it didn't it's like Christmas was cursed.
scottt - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#479987) #
Bieber came 1 out short of getting the win and was pulled after 97 pitches.
Flu was great.
Dallas was solid.
Hoffman was great.
Rogers got 3 ground balls to Kaz on 8 pitches.

Varland barely closed it.
The fastball got hit.
The curve got it when thrown for a strike.
He was lucky to end it with a failed checked swing.
hypobole - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#479991) #
"Whining about it doesn't change the fact that it will kick into gear and start working beautifully again and there's really nothing for us to do until then."

Who are you accusing of whining?



scottt - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#479993) #
Bieber walked too many but the only run he allowed was on a 94mph fastball over the strike zone that was hit out of the park.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#479998) #
"Who are you accusing of whining?"

Any rational person who expects more than average to below average production for top of the league investment this FO has made in Vlad. After (3 months!?) of talking about it it is officially a dead horse.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#480001) #
Wait, is complaining about Vlad now a verboten topic?
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#480003) #
The way I see it is if the Jays sneak into the playoffs they'll be one of the scariest teams there - Gausman-Cease-Yesavage is a killer top 3 rotation (Bieber-Scherzer a vet combo who can be damn good on the right day). Varland-Rogers-Hoffman a very damn good final 3 in the pen, with Fisher-Fluharty nice extras. Mix in an offense that, if Vlad-Kirk-Springer get going can pound the crap out of anyone and are known for getting up for the playoffs after last year and this team can go on a killer run should they get there. But, and this is the big but, we need them to hold it together and get in.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#480006) #
Wanted to say how the Jays pitching has looked over the Past 1 Calendar year....


RH Cease (30): 30gms, 5.4ip/gm, 77era-, 5.0awar/32
RH Yesavage (22): 16gms, 5.5ip/gm, 79era-, 3.9awar/32
RH Gausman (35): 33gms, 5.9ip/gm, 89era-, 3.8awar/32
LH Corbin (32): 32gms, 4.5ip/gm, 119era-, 1.0awar/32
RH Bieber (31): 11gms, 5.3ip/gm, 117era-, 0.4awar/32

RH SWR (25): 24gms, 4.2ip/gm, 128era-, -0.1awar/32
RH Scherzer (41): 19gms, 4.7ip/gm, 158era-, -1.0awar/32
RH Estrada (27): 3gms, 3.8ip/gm, 182era-, -2.1awar/32




RH Varland (28): 74gms, 1.1ip/gm, 58era-, 1.8awar/65
RH Rogers (35): 79gms, 1.0ip/gm, 49era-, 1.3awar/65
RH Miles (25): 25gms, 2.3ip/gm, 71era-, 1.1awar/65
LH Fluharty (24): 67gms, 0.8ip/gm, 92era-, 0.6awar/65
RH Fisher (25): 70gms, 1.0ip/gm, 79era-, 0.4awar/65
RH Hoffman (33): 74gms, 1.0ip/gm, 103era-, 0.1awar/65

LH Mantiply (35): 17gms, 1.0ip/gm, 49era-, 1.1awar/65
LH Macko (25): 17gms, 1.0ip/gm, 87era-, 0.6awar/65


RH Dallas (26): 2gms, 2.3ip/gm, 46era-, 2.1awar/65
RH Andrews (30): 2gms, 1.5ip/gm, 0era-, 1.1awar/65
RH Rodriguez (29): 39gms, 0.9ip/gm, 119era-, -0.5awar/65
LH Little (29): 42gms, 0.7ip/gm, 192era-, -1.6awar/65
RH Lee (27): 9gms, 1.1ip/gm, 203era-, -2.7awar/65
LH Fleming (29): 1gms, 3.0ip/gm, 288era-, -3.3awar/65
pooks137 - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#480018) #
During the Giants series, Joe Siddall mentioned how frustrating it was watch Vlad struggle daily for the last ten weeks. Particularly, the fact that a pro like Joe hadn't seen much daylight in Vlad making adjustments or improving his process at this point.

It's all the groundballs that are so hard to watch when Vlad's bad. He's always been an extreme GB hitter. But at least they used to be interspersed with high EV line drives & good PAs if the pitcher didn't give him anything to hit.

Siddall went on to mention that he'd like Vlad to simply things for awhile and only try to hit flyballs in-game. Not necessarily trying to get hits.

It was a interesting suggestion on having Vlad simply focus on creating loft, particularly as Vlad has always had a very flat swing.

chris_jays - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#480023) #
hmmm disagree June... If they do somehow manage to sneak into a WC spot, I don't anticipate them as a scary team at all. Bieber/Max are quite honestly looking horrible and it's a pie in the sky dream to expect them to magically turn it around in a playoff start.
Trey and Gausman are showing a ton of troubling signs as Chris Black has written extensively about. Yes, they'd have a solid trio of relievers but the offence is abysmal and I wouldn't be surprised if a Wild Card series went similar to how the Mariners series went recently when they faced elite SP.
Nigel - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#480053) #
I’ve been watching for over 50 years. I don’t ever remember seeing a starter walk the bases loaded with the first three hitters on 12 pitches.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#480059) #
To be honest, I haven't read anything by Black in years. Don't go to the Sportsnet site.

Yesavage & Gausman have both shown when on no one can hit them. Yeah, they both go through rough patches, but Gausman's FB is at 94, been in the 94-95 range for years. Yesavage is super-wild tonight, but hey, crap happens, 10 straight 5+ IP games for a kid who is in his 2nd pro season sounds nice to me.

The offense, like I said, has a ton of potential in Vlad/Springer/Kirk that hasn't been there so far, but we saw what they could do last fall, to write that off after a half season of sucking seems silly to me.

The playoffs could be a 2 and done, or they could go nuts. I wouldn't be shocked if this year we get our first sub 500 WS champion.
June Northey - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#480060) #
Who knew? Clase now with 2 homers. Never would've bet on that. I was shocked they called him up. Now he may never go down again.
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#480061) #
After an ice cold / Injured start this year Clase was back up to his typical league average in AAA over his last 100pa or so, and even better than that over his last 70pa or so, so they were actually calling up a fairly hot bat when he came up.

He's no longer young for AAA but he was still the youngest in buffalo until keys/harry got there.
Nigel - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#480062) #
Ugly start from Yesavage.
scottt - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#480064) #
Class has power and speed.
21 HR, 79 SB in the minors in 23.
It's the hit tool that is questionable.
Glevin - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#480065) #
Vladdy!!!
uglyone - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#480066) #
wow did that feel good.
scottt - Saturday, July 11 2026 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#480067) #
Both teams are scratching to find bullpen innings.
Nigel - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#480069) #
Yesavage has a version of “Little’s Disease” (ie. the natural shape of many of his pitches is a ball). Ultimately hitters simply stopped swinging at balls out of the zone with Little and he was done. I don’t think Yesavage’s problem is as serious but it’s an issue and hitters are increasingly just taking. The simplistic solution is to throw more FBs but he’s reluctant to do so and his FB is awfully straight (horizontally) so it’s probably a bit of everything.
June Northey - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 05:47 AM EDT (#480071) #
Grossed out by the super-pro USA uniforms players will be required to wear at the All-Star Game. Stars and Stripes on the numbers, etc. Good way to make me skip the game all-together. Screw Trumperica - anything super-pro USA I will skip as long as it is such a messed up place.
scottt - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 06:16 AM EDT (#480072) #
The players and managers are Americans.
As long as the game isn't in Toronto, it's not a huge thing.
An extra reason to not travel to the US is fine.
The cap and jersey are not something I would wear, but again, who needs a Guerrero All-star jersey?
He's not going to wear it, anyway.
scottt - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 06:19 AM EDT (#480073) #
Yesavage can be effective in the zone.
Get to 2 strikes and most will chase.

Hopefully, he finds it soon.
pooks137 - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 06:51 AM EDT (#480074) #

Hard to manage around Trey only giving you 5 outs, 7 walks, 4 runs on 59 pitches (2/3 of which were balls). But it's also too bad that the bullpen wasn't sharp against the worst offense in the league.

Both Macko & Fisher were very inefficient in their brief roles coming into the game earlier than usual.

One also has to wonder why Patrick Corbin wasn't brought in instead of Macko. Other than the fact that the game was tied 4-4 and Schneider wasn't ready to wave the white flag Bottom 2.

If Corbin isn't going to be used as the long man when rested when your starter implodes in the second inning, there's really no point in keeping him at the back of the pen.

Chad Dallas would've been the other long man option, but inconveniently already threw an inning yesterday.

I can't imagine Schneider was holding back Corbin for Gausman's final start before the AllStar break, even though Gausman himself has been unpredictable lately.

chris_jays - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#480076) #
I said this a week or so ago but Valenzuela has started 1 of the last 6 games.
If that was the plan, why not just keep Heineman for that role and option Valenzuela to AAA where he could play every day?
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#480077) #
You just hope somehow in the second half a few of these nagging issues alleviate themselves and they can put a run together. Kirk and Vladdy have had some good swings the last few games, that’s a glimmer of hope the offence can help carry them. Yesavage tanking last night certainly doesn’t give me a ton of confidence they have a solid four starters they can rely on. They look like a .500 team at best. Up to the front office how much they want to give up to improve this team.
chris_jays - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#480078) #
Genuinely why would you sell the farm to upgrade the team? Best case scenario is a wild card berth, likely fully on the road, against a team significantly better than the Jays.

Have the Jays shown anything that illustrates they can compete this year, aside from treading water in an incredibly mediocre American League.
mathesond - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#480080) #
I guess they've shown they are less likely to give up than their fans?
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#480082) #
"If that was the plan, why not just keep Heineman for that role and option Valenzuela to AAA where he could play every day?"

Because Valenzuela is projected to be a back up catcher in MLB, backing up Kirk. Why send him down only to bring him up later to do the exact same thing and back up Kirk?

The only way it makes sense to play him more is if you sit Kirk or remove Springer from the line up so Kirk can DH.
chris_jays - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#480094) #
You send him down so he can further develop his skills and be a "better" backup catcher by getting more reps?

Or is the assumption that he's already 100% developed and can't progress in any aspect of his game right now.
scottt - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#480096) #
The assumption is that he can improve more playing as the MLB backup and catching the top pitchers.

Keys will likely head back though.
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#480097) #
Valenzuela's 25 with over 2000 milb PA. He's already excellent defensively and can only learn more there being around Kirk and mlb pitchers.

Don't really see what more time in AAA will do for him.
vw_fan17 - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#480111) #
Disappointing that the rare good game from Vlad was wasted.

Yesavage feels like a box of chocolates at this point. 

Interesting that as lights-out as Varland has been, it only projects to < 2 WAR. There was talk last season that he wanted to be a starter - I have no idea how to judge if he would be a good candidate, whether his pitches are more suited to a 1 inning relief role, etc, but with Cease projecting to 5 WAR it's obvious why starters are so much more valuable than relievers, even lights-out relievers.
Gerry - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#480113) #
CJ Van Eyk is up in the big leagues. Chad Dallas optioned.
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#480114) #
Varland actually projects to 3.8war by both fip war and ra9 war.
Dewey - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#480117) #
Madison Chapman’s voice has a very metallic, tinny, ‘hard’ sound to it. She’s not easy to listen to. That, coupled with her seeming inability to refrain from ‘commenting’ during virtually every at bat, is quite irritating. And the incessant commentary is not so much ‘colour’ as information over-kill. Extreme over-kill. Don’t know if she can overcome these flaws.
92-93 - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#480118) #
Two batters this inning should have struck out but Valenzuela didn’t challenge ball calls, so instead of one on with two outs it’s bases loaded and no outs.
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#480119) #
is something wrong with the mound this series or something.
92-93 - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#480121) #
And now Valenzuela challenges a ball with no outs and nobody on. Atrocious decision making.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#480123) #
Dewey, my wife and I have been discussing Madison Shipman's non stop commentating the last two games. Someone should tell her to breathe a bit.
Nigel - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#480124) #
I don’t find the tonal quality of her voice a problem. I also don’t mind that the comments are information - Siddal, my favourite of the current colour options, definitely leans that way, but oh man the quantity of commentary is way too much. I think she would be good if she cut back to about half as many colour comments. But then I’m old and often prefer silence and to have the play speak for itself sometimes.
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#480125) #
i love her tbh. she's great.


not so great - Hoffman in a save situation. just why.
chris_jays - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#480127) #
Hoffman has given up 1 run in his last 14 innings and was excellent Friday in a similar spot. Fisher and Flu haven’t been great lately. Who on earth would you have preferred?
Eephus - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#480129) #
They’re out of their minds if they think they should buy at the deadline. It’s just not their year, folks.
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#480130) #
anyone but hoffman. when will we ever learn.
Eephus - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#480131) #
In a way, this has been the Jeff Hoffman of seasons funny enough. There sure is a whole lot there to give you hope and make you think this can really be something…. But it just isn’t coming together often enough and the setbacks make you wanna bury your head in a pillow.

Fun game, this baseball.
chris_jays - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#480132) #
Since June 1st:

ERA:
Hoffman: 0.61
Varland: 2.50
Fluharty: 5.65
Fisher: 7.36
Macko: 7.59

FIP:
Hoffman: 2.62
Varland: 1.71
Fluharty: 6.03
Fisher: 7.28
Macko: 5.63
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#480133) #
now do save situations.
scottt - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#480134) #
No point in trading for rentals unless it's really cheap.

The guys that are there need to wake up or more kids will play in September.

I was watching Gus facing France and my only thought was no slider.
So, of course.

They switched Rogers and Hoffman because they like the strikeouts against the big hitters. 
It's not like Rogers has been good only against the bottom of the order. 

France is going through what Springer experienced last year.

Overall, it's not a disaster for a West Coast trip but the lost opportunities keep piling up.



chris_jays - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#480135) #
Also, starting pitching since June 1st:

ERA:

Cease: 1.73
Trey: 5.21
Gausman: .51
Bieber: 7.64
Corbin: 8.69

If people think Hoffman is our since June 1st, I don't honestly know what to say.

Hitters since June 1st:

wRC+:

Varsho: 53
Kirk: 63
Vlad: 65
Sanchez: 81
Pinango: 83
Gimenez: 91


chris_jays - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#480136) #
That should have said an ERA of 6.51 for Gausman
hypobole - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#480137) #
Playoff spot this year like a $20 bill attached to fishing line.
chris_jays - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#480139) #
Since June 1st...

Hoffman has a Win Probability Added of 0.66, second behind Rogers at 0.74. Varland is at 0.12 which would indicate Hoffman has done well in high leverage situations.
Glevin - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#480140) #
Being mad at Jeff Hoffman right now is just insane to me. He was 27th best reliever in baseball in FWAR going into today. Be sucked as a closer early on, but he's been a valuable reliever since. Jays have so so many bigger issues. (Vladdy is issue #1).
SK in NJ - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#480141) #
Jays are now last place in the East at the AS Break. I don't care how close they are to a playoff spot, buying at the deadline with the way the team looks would be nuts.
Nigel - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#480142) #
No issue with bringing Hoffman into the game today. The pen’s been grossly over worked and there really weren’t any other good options (today or more recently). However, in the 8th they were going to face the meat of the Padres lineup. Innovative reliever usage would have recognized that if your plan was to use Hoffman and Varland in the last 2 innings they should have given the higher leverage 8th to Varland. Slave to the save thinking won’t allow for that.

Hoffman is so frustrating in the broader sense. He looked great on Friday. Today he was just throwing meatballs. The single to Machado was on a pitch that should have had a gift basket attached.
chris_jays - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#480143) #
Guys come on… Glevin has it bang on here. Hoffman has been excellent lately and looked great on Friday, Varland looked shaky.

Look at our starting pitching, our offence and tell me again that Hoffman is even in the top 10 of our issues. There’s no doubt in my mind he’d generate the highest trade return back of any player we have available.
uglyone - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#480144) #
No matter how good he has been, all of you were rightly expecting him to blow that lead, and he did.
chris_jays - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#480145) #
Not even remotely true… and if that’s the case, why hasn’t he blown it the last 5 times in a similar situation, Friday included?

He didn’t even pitch that badly. Look up the exit velocities and xBA.
vw_fan17 - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#480147) #
Now do Hoffman's ERA/FIP based on inning pitched.. I'll bet most of the last 14 good innings were 7th and earlier. He just seems to have horrendous luck from the 8th inning on. 
vw_fan17 - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#480148) #
If we can get a good return at the deadline for Hoffman, we should take it. He just seems snakebit here..
vw_fan17 - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#480149) #
Re: Varland at 1.8 WAR, I was looking at the stats posted in the thread reading 1.8 aWar/65 or something.. He does already have 2.7 bWAR, so yeah.. my bad.

As for after the all-star break; sell almost everything not nailed down. This team isn't going anywhere AS IS, IMHO. Sure, we're only 2.5 games behind for the last WC, but we'd have to pass 5 teams to get into the wild card - and IIRC, we haven't won a series against a better team or have a really bad record against good teams as was posted here earlier - right now we don't have the bats to compete with a good team. 

Bring up a bunch of kids and let them play - maybe Clase can be a starter next year? I'd almost prefer Lukes over Varsho in CF . Hopefully Barger is healthy next season, and maybe Santander can contribute a bit? See if George will accept less playing time, or maybe accept a trade to a playoff team. Or let him lead off to chase the lead-off-HR record and then substitute early for him? And let Vlad sit 2-3 days a week to heal up for next season.
scottt - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#480150) #
Selling would bad for the clubhouse.

They have not played well.
They just need one good week to get back in it.
They have 2 months of meaningful baseball left.
June Northey - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#480151) #
I don't expect a sell off, more an adjustment. Underperforming vets to be cleared out to make way for kids, ideally getting ML or near ML pieces in return. So if a club wants a vet presence in the clubhouse there might be a home for Springer (seriously doubt it), Varsho if a club is desperate for improved OF defense in CF as a rental. Gausman for the potential #1/2 guy in the rotation based on past performance who can eat innings still with flashes of brilliance (I suspect would take a massive overpay to get him out of here), Corbin for a bucket of balls, Scherzer we'll pay you to take (give him another playoff run), Hoffman has a fair amount of value and some club needing relief help will pay for him. That's about it for ML guys I could see being traded. Maaaaybe Gimenez if a contender is weak/injured at SS (shift Ernie there and put Urias at 2B for now).

The Jays will be chasing guys in AAA/AA who show promise but their teams don't have a spot for right now. Pitchers always in demand, OF'ers are nice, middle infielders always another premium goal, another Valenzuela (underrated C) to stash in AAA in case of injury.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 12 2026 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#480155) #
I think they should trade 1 or 2 main players like Varsho and Yesavage and call up Bloss. Keep Hoffman he's good.

Hoffman in the save situation is like Vlad in the 3/4 spot on the line up. These two players are having some strange seasons and not performing when numbers say they should be. I am starting to think that these guys won't hit their full potential until the line up and rotations are addressed. Vlad needs protection in the line up to take some pressure off of him. Hoffman should be used like Varland was last year. Sometimes things break over time. Hoffman was used a ton last year and then had that World Series moment. That's not easy to recover from. Who's to say Varland won't be bad next year from his overuse this year?

Katie - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#480158) #
What on earth would you trade Yesavage for?
scottt - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#480160) #
I don't expect them to move Gausman unless he asked to be moved. 
He's given all he had and it sounds like he's thinking about retiring.
In the meanwhile, he can eat innings which is something they don't have enough of.

Varsho has no hit enough to consider a QO, so it would be fine if they find a taker.

Corbin is available but won't bring much back.

Gimenez is probably too expensive to move.

They have moved Springer out of the lead. They just need to sit him a couple of games a week.
Glevin - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#480161) #
As Chris said above with updated numbers. Since June 1st:

SP ERA:
Cease: 1.73
Yesavage: 5.21
Gausman: 6.23
Bieber: 7.64

WRC+
Varsho-52
Vlad-62
Kirk-63 "

This team has been awful for a long time and aside from a few players, they just are playing very poorly. You can't win when your starters are giving up 5 runs a game and your middle of the order bats hit like pitchers. Let them team play as is for a few weeks coming out of the all-star game and then make the moves you need to make which is, if this keeps going, selling.


dalimon5 - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#480162) #
The team needs a serious offense player with control. Who that player is and what their availability is remains to be seen but one things for sure, that rare player is going to cost you dearly and unless you plan to trade JoZjo Parker and Nimmala in a package then you better start asking yourself who your best trade chips are. Yesavage has that pedigree.
Petey Baseball - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#480163) #
I also believe Sean Keys is a trade candidate. Much like Rowdy Tellez and Spencer Horwitz, his primary defensive position is first base. He's blocked by Okamoto at third base as well, and I see him as too lumbering and arm challenged to be an average defensive outfielder.

uglyone - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#480164) #
"Re: Varland at 1.8 WAR, I was looking at the stats posted in the thread reading 1.8 aWar/65 or something.. He does already have 2.7 bWAR, so yeah.. my bad."

Those were stats for the past 1 calendar year, not just this season - and paced for 65 innings, not the 80-85 innings varland is on pace for. It's hard to figure out how best to pace pitcher performances tbh.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#480165) #
Maybe it's a Yesavage for Jackson Merrill type challenge trade or a Yesavage for De Paula type trade with the Dodgers, but that's where I think this team needs to look to get the most out of Vlad and reconfigure the OF for 2027 when Springer is gone.

This FO has much better luck with pitchers in free agency and if they could leverage Yesavage into something similar on the offensive side then it could work very well for them should they augment that via another trade or big signing in the off season.

Katie, I'm definitely not advocating to trade Yesavage because of his recent poor performance.
hypobole - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#480166) #
Selling would bad for the clubhouse.

Jays sold in 2924, went to the WS in 2025.

Most important to me at least is shedding enough of our $300 million plus salary to get under $284 million. If we don't, we drop back 10 picks in the draft again.

Dropping from 29 to 39 this year wasn't good, but dropping from 9 to 19 would be terrible.
92-93 - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#480168) #
The Blue Jays will not be sellers if they are 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. It's really that simple.
SK in NJ - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#480169) #
The Jays are giving unlimited rope to a 36 year old replacement level player this season (Springer). Varsho just turned 30, has seen his defense (though still good), bat speed, and sprint speed drop off, as well as the power he showed last season. Selling the starting pitching (Gausman in particular) would be harmful, but I don't think moving on from Springer and Varsho would be all that damaging to the team's chances in th 2nd half (as slim as they are with them). A hybrid model where they sell impending FA's and buy elsewhere (for more controllable talent) would be the best of the both worlds. Maybe sell high on Keys (who doesn't have a position here) while also trying to get the best deal they can for Springer, Varsho, etc. Gausman again would be the clear indication of selling as I doubt they'd be able to replace those innings, but even then you have to entertain it depending on the return.

Being 2.5 games back and behind 5 teams while having a bottom 5-10 offense and mid pitching staff doesn't scream "in the race" to me. By the time the trade deadline rolls around, they better be in a much better position than now if they are buyers.
hypobole - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#480170) #
Jays will not be within 2 1/2 games of a playoff spot by the end of July, and will sell.

If I'm wrong, I'll be more than happy to post a mea culpa.
Mike Green - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#480171) #
Fangraphs has their current payroll for luxury tax purposes (per their Roster Resource) at $318M. This includes $18M in player benefits.  It would require a pretty serious selling job to shed $34M in salary to get under the $284M threshold if I have understood the way it works correctly.   For instance, Springer's AAV is $25M, but if you send that away with negligible return in salary, you still save less than $12M. You'd need to sell Springer, Gausman, Gimenez and probably one other smaller piece, with negligible return.  

Have I understood the situation correctly?  If so, I don't see that happening, and I wouldn't be trying to do that.  

pooks137 - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#480172) #
Trying to get back underneath some of the luxury tax thresholds in a down year seems noble but nigh impossible.

I believe the luxury tax calculations are pro-rated. The Jays have already played 90+ games and will be closer to 110 by the deadline.

They also simply don't have the expensive horses to make it work. Gausman is probably the most expensive realistic asset, but he hasn't been pitching well for awhile.

Springer is similarly expensive on an expiring deal. But 2026 George isn't tradeable without taking on most of his salary, which defeats the point.

Varsho is another asset, but is diminished and not that expensive.

Trading Hoffman would save a few million. But his 2027 salary likely makes him less of an asset to acquiring teams looking for bullpen rentals.

Bieber hasn't pitched well and is also making only mid-range starter money. Scherzer has been awful, isn't healthy and is only making a couple mil base salary.

Jesus Sanchez has been hurt for awhile and isn't making much in Arb 2.

hypobole - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#480173) #
There is another way to avoid their !st round pick dropping 10 spots. That's to end up with one of the first 6 picks.
hypobole - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#480174) #
There is another way to avoid their !st round pick dropping 10 spots. That's to end up with one of the first 6 picks.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#480175) #
His team could easily get below the threshold by clearing out Garcia, Hoffman, Springer, Gausman, Varsho and Straw. They'd likely be able to give those players up for salary relief if they accept no other value coming back in return. That's 78 million not including Bieber's 16 million.
Mike Green - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#480176) #
I am firmly of the belief that playing with the hope of losing is not good.  If you're going to trade a player and open up a place for Sean Keys (say), you want him to do well and to do everything you can to make that happen.  
dalimon5 - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#480177) #
And they would probably lose a lot more money with fans tuning out.
Glevin - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#480181) #
"Trying to get back underneath some of the luxury tax thresholds in a down year seems noble but nigh impossible."

It seems only possible if the Jays go like 2-17 in the next while and can sell everyone. Much more likely is hanging theoretically around a playoff spot and maybe making a small trade or two.
TamRa - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#480184) #
the only way to get down even below the highest threshold would mean shedding every pending free agent, AND Sanchez AND finding some sucker to take Gimenez.

Don't count on it.
TamRa - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#480185) #
"That's 78 million not including Bieber's 16 million."

You're only trading roughly a third of that though.
TamRa - Monday, July 13 2026 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#480186) #
The one potential sell situation I'd find interesting is if they got a good return for Varsho and seized the opportunity to see how Clase holds up in CF. The vast majority of his minor league reps have been in center and that a lot of data already, but between him and Lukes you need to see "can we cover CF next year or are we going to go find someone?"
Glevin - Tuesday, July 14 2026 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#480188) #
"The one potential sell situation I'd find interesting is if they got a good return for Varsho and seized the opportunity to see how Clase holds up in CF. "

Clase had an 82 WRC+ in AAA this year. He had a 101 WRC+ in AAA last year. If he were a Denzel Clarke-level defender that might make him interesting but he has shown to be a negative defender so far. He has real skills and is still young so maybe he is putting it together but it's vastly more likely that he is just having a little hot streak. They should keep playing him regularly to see where this goes but I'm not clearing out room to give Clase regular playing time.

(Now that I think of it, Denzel Clarke might be an interesting minor trade target. Elite D, super speed, enormous contact problems, Toronto-boy. Certainly an interesting project and A's don't need him.)
dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 14 2026 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#480189) #
The Blue Jays offered Daulton Varsho 100 million this season to resign and he declined, "betting on himself."
June Northey - Tuesday, July 14 2026 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#480190) #
Funny, can't recall reading that. If so then Varsho might live to regret that. It is what I'd have offered him. But now a 3 year deal is the max I expect him to get in the $20-$25 mil per range unless he really improves post-break. 1.1 fWAR is nice over 83 games but not 'wow'. Basically a touch over a 2 fWAR pace which is acceptable for an everyday player but not noteworthy, especially since he enters his age 30 season next year. Last year in 71 games he had 2.2 fWAR. His DRS this year is -1 in CF, after 3 straight years of 10+ - what caused that is going to be what teams will be digging into before signing him. Did his range go down just enough, is he not getting the jumps he used to? Straw after a 15 year last year in DRS is -1 this year too in CF. Makes one wonder if the Jays positioning is off or something (not sure what they base DRS on, just that it is normally very good at telling who is the best out there).
92-93 - Tuesday, July 14 2026 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#480191) #
Again, the Rays got very little for 1.5 years of Arozarena (Seattle's #14 and #15 prospects). The return for Varsho would be so minimal that it's not worth jeopardizing even a small chance at the playoffs. Trading Daulton would make sense if the Jays had a toolsy talent that needed the reps, but alas they traded Loperfido away for Sanchez.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 14 2026 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#480192) #
92-93 I think you're right about trading Varsho and the minimal return, but that doesn't mean you can't package him to sweeten the return.

BTW one of the three players the Rays got back in that trade less than 2 years ago is their #4 ranked prospect now and just outside the top 100.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 14 2026 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#480193) #
TB apparently is in on Tarik Skubal. I fully expect TB to collapse as their pitchers all reach their limits and start to drop like flies but damn if they can make a huge addition like that it would completely change my prediction.
pooks137 - Tuesday, July 14 2026 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#480194) #
Trading Daulton would make sense if the Jays had a toolsy talent that needed the reps, but alas they traded Loperfido away for Sanchez.

Interesting lament about trading away the potential of Joey Loperfido.

I don't recall thinking Joey was very toolsy in his 1.5 seasons in Toronto.

He's currently 27 and in the minors for Houston. He's only started 5 games in CF for them this season. His only HR of the season was against the Jays IIRC in that disastrous homestand a few weeks back.

The Jays so far have done pretty well choosing which of their fringe roster guys to trade away for new parts in Alan Roden, Will Wagner & Joey Loperfido. Still early, but no regrets yet. The problem with 25-something MLB-ready hitting prospects is that they have to start producing like MLB regulars right away. Or they quickly get labeled as AAAA-guys/former prospects.

Otto Lopez is the one that most people lament got away. But I personally don't recall being too concerned at the time when he was lost in a 40-man roster crunch.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 14 2026 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#480195) #
At The All-Star Break


Plausible Best Lineups, using....


This Year's Stats Only:

1. RF Lukes 219pa, .343obp, 112wrc+, 3.3war650
2. 3B Okamoto 382pa, .319obp, 119wrc+, 3.9war650
3. 2B Clement 384pa, .318obp, 108wrc+, 2.1war650
4. LF Sanchez 234pa, .316obp, 107wrc+, 0.3war650
5. C Valenzuela 184pa, .322obp, 106wrc+, 5.7war650
6. 1B Guerrero 387pa, .346obp, 99wrc+, 1.7war650
7. CF Varsho 308pa, .308obp, 94wrc+, 2.3war650
8. DH Springer 293pa, .303obp, 91wrc+, 0.0war650
9. SS Gimenez 313pa, .277obp, 77wrc+, 2.9war650

B. UT Pinango 160pa, .313obp, 103wrc+, 0.0war650
B. OF Straw 164pa, .290obp, 75wrc+, 0.8war650
B. IF Schneider 118pa, .282obp, 68wrc+, -2.2war650
B. C Alejandro 99pa, .273obp, 62wrc+, 2.0war650

X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 83wrc+, -1.9war650
X. OF Clase 19pa, .421obp, 212wrc+, 13.7war650
X. IF Urias 27pa, .370obp, 135wrc+, 7.2war650
X. C

X. UT Keys 32pa, .188obp, 31wrc+, -4.1war650
X. OF Barger 28pa, .214obp, 0wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Sosa 117pa, .207obp, 30wrc+, -4.4war650
X. IF McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 13wrc+, -5.2war650




Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

1. DH Springer 529pa, .366obp, 141wrc+, 3.8war650
2. 1B Guerrero 661pa, .359obp, 118wrc+, 2.9war650
3. 3B Okamoto 382pa, .319obp, 119wrc+, 3.9war650
4. CF Varsho 479pa, .309obp, 108wrc+, 3.7war650
5. C Valenzuela 184pa, .322obp, 106wrc+, 6.4war650
6. SS Clement 629pa, .307obp, 102wrc+, 2.6war650
7. 2B Schneider 257pa, .328obp, 102wrc+, 1.3war650
8. RF Lukes 445pa, .307obp, 99wrc+, 2.2war650
9. LF Straw 279pa, .313obp, 95wrc+, 3.3war650

B. UT Sanchez 444pa, .302obp, 97wrc+, 0.4war650
B. OF Barger 269pa, .285obp, 79wrc+, 1.0war650
B. IF Gimenez 444pa, .271obp, 71wrc+, 2.2war650
B. C Alejandro 293pa, .304obp, 93wrc+, 4.2war650

X. UT Sosa 372pa, .264obp, 79wrc+, -0.2war650
X. OF Pinango 160pa, .313obp, 103wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Urias 98pa, .316obp, 78wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C MacIver 59pa, .220obp, 21wrc+, -3.3war650

X. OF Clase 19pa, .421obp, 212wrc+, 13.7war650
X. UT Jimenez 35pa, .343obp, 83wrc+, -1.9war650
X. UT Keys 32pa, .188obp, 31wrc+, -4.1war650
X. UT Santander 12pa, .250obp, 17wrc+, -5.4war650
X. IF McAdoo 25pa, .160obp, 13wrc+, -5.2war650





Fangraphs Combined Depth Charts Projections

1. 1B Guerrero 279pa, .373obp, 136wrc+, 4.0war650
2. LF Lukes 174pa, .338obp, 109wrc+, 2.6war650
3. 3B Okamoto 254pa, .323obp, 114wrc+, 3.3war650
4. DH Springer 200pa, .332obp, 113wrc+, 2.0war650
5. RF Barger 111pa, .313obp, 106wrc+, 2.3war650
6. C Alejandro 162pa, .341obp, 110wrc+, 5.6war650
7. CF Varsho 240pa, .298obp, 100wrc+, 2.7war650
8. 2B Clement 248pa, .312obp, 100wrc+, 2.9war650
9. SS Gimenez 240pa, .306obp, 91wrc+, 3.0war650

B. UT Sanchez 148pa, .315obp, 106wrc+, 2.2war650
B. OF Straw 51pa, .297obp, 74wrc+, 1.3war650
B. IF Schneider 23pa, .328obp, 103wrc+, 2.8war650
B. C Valenzuela 113pa, .287obp, 79wrc+, 2.3war650

X. UT Pinango 40pa, .299obp, 87wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Clase 54pa, .294obp, 84wrc+, 1.2war650
X. IF Urias 40pa, .325obp, 100wrc+, 1.6war650
X. C MacIver 3pa, .285obp, 76wrc+, 0.0war650

X. UT Keys 77pa, .294obp, 84wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Santander 14pa, .310obp, 106wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Sosa 60pa, .275obp, 84wrc+, 0.0war650
X. C

X. OF Schreck 3pa, .320obp, 93wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF McAdoo 9pa, .288obp, 83wrc+, 0.0war650
TamRa - Tuesday, July 14 2026 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#480200) #
I'm not saying I want them to trade Varsho for the express purpose of holding auditions, I'm saying that IF they trade him for whatever their own reasons are, I'd be interested in seeing how such auditions would go given the lack of quality alternatives to add during the off-season.

My ideal outcome for Varsho is for him to do well enough that they can justify a qualifying offer. Of course, then you'd be in a situation where he might play so well that Boras would insist that he decline it. But there's a middle groud where he hits good enough to make the QO rational but not so good that he can bet on a $100m+ long term deal if he declines it.
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