Given we are headed towards another draft I figured it might be a good idea to review the past, as we prepare for the future. Will we see another Yesavage, a Halladay, or an Augie Schmidt? Time will tell.
So how have past drafts gone? Let's do a basic run down by GM using Baseball Reference. FYI: they include unsigned guys as part of the WAR which skyrockets AA but isn't much of a factor otherwise.
| Who | Years | Best | WAR/Year | Best Year | Worst | Best unsigned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillick | 1977-1994 | Dave Stieb | 42.4 | 1989 - Olerud & Kent | 1980 - none reached, 2nd overall pick | Scott Erickson |
| Ash | 1995-2001 | Roy Halladay | 47.1 | 1995 - Halladay | 2000 - Dustin McGowan as good as it got | Ted Lilly |
| JPR | 2002-2009 | Aaron Hill | 18.4 | 2009 - Yan Gomes, 13 reached | 2008 - Eric Thames | James Paxton |
| AA | 2010-2015 | Aaron Nola | 45.9 | 2011 - Nola, Pillar, Musgrove 15 reached | 2015 - Brady Singer (DNS) | Kris Bryant |
| AA (Signed only) | 2010-2015 | Marcus Stroman | 26.5 | 2011 -Pillar, Musgrove 10 reached |
2015 - Travis Bergen sub 1 WAR | Aaron Nola |
| Atkins | 2016-now | Bo Bichette | 5.7 | 2016 - Bo & Biggio | 2022 - Fluharty & Roden, negative WAR net | Shea Langeliers |
Note: For Atkins I listed both Nola and Bryant as those 2 were crazy good 'nearly a Jay' guys. Always interesting - never fair to the most recent GM as so many are still in the minors. Still, Atkins overall has done poorly in the draft, his pre-2020's averaged just 13.4 and they've had time to reach. Lots of promise in the current crew but outside of Yesavage I don't think any have shown star quality at the ML level. A few might, but not yet.
As to rounds...Highlights are 30+ WAR guys... (40+ I list the WAR)
- Halladay (64.2), Shawn Green, and Chris Carpenter.
- David Wells (53.5)
- John Olerud (58.1), Jimmy Key (48.9)
- nightmare - none at 8 WAR even (current contenders to break that are Chad Dallas, Sean Keys)
- Dave Stieb (56.4), Pat Hentgen
Others are Jesse Barfield (9th), Jeff Kent (20th 55.4), Aaron Nola (DNS 22nd), Woody Williams (28th), Orlando Hudson (33rd DNS & 43rd).
Latest drafted to reach was Chris Woodward 1994 round 54 (1.1 bWAR), latest drafted but didn't sign is Tom Marsh (1987 70th round, -0.8 bWAR), latest picked was round 75 (1478th pick overall) in 1989 - Bert Emanuel who never played as a pro.
How good is the shot at getting a 30+ WAR star, shot at a HOF? Low. 50+ers are rare - 5 in 50 years. 30+ a touch less rare - 12 signed, plus twice didn't sign so about 1 in 4 years. Under Atkins we should have had 2-3 of them. Bo will probably get there, Yesavage certainly has a chance but is far, far away, but who else? No idea.
Now, this year is more limited than normal due to high spending last year, signing a top free agent, you get the idea. So what picks do we have and what is possible? 61 drafts have happened.
- 39: Best ever: Barry Bonds (DNS 162* WAR), Lance Lynn (29.8) & Don Baylor (28.5), 2 others in the 10's (Joey Gallo & Todd Hundley), Jays never had this pick before - 28 reached avg 10.6 bWAR (includes Bonds).
- 103: Best: Eric Plunk (13.5) & Russ Ortiz (13.2) - that's it for 10+'s. Jays in '99 took Matt Ford (0.4 bWAR for Milwaukee, rule 5'd him from us). Overall 19 reached, 1.6 bWAR avg
- 131: Best: Ed Whitson (21.2), 1 other over 10, Jays had this pick twice - wasted on 2 guys who didn't make it (Jeff Mays '85, David Trimble 1980). Overall 21 reached, 2.0 bWAR avg
- 164: Best: Mickey Morandini (DNS 9.9), Scott Karl (8.7). 18 reached, 1.5 bWAR per, no Jay picks
- 193: Best: Tom Seaver (DNS 109.9), Matt Capps (6.3). 16 reached, 7.7 per (inc Seaver, remove him and it is under 1 per). Jays had this twice, DJ Hanson (99) & Ken Whitfield (83)
- 222: Best: Coco Crisp (28.9), Jays once had it Andy Ravel ('16). 8 reached, 3.4 bWAR on average
- 252: Best: Brian Dozier (24.3), Jays in '16 got Kyle Weatherly. 12 reached, 3.4 bWAR per
- 282: Best: James Karinchak (3.2), Jays in '16 Nick Hartman, 5 reached, -0.6 per
- 312: Best: Tyler Rogers (10.9), yes that one, Jays got Kirby Snead (-0.5). 11 reached, 1.0 bWAR per
- 342: Best: Scott Downs (DNS 10.8), Charlie Lea (DNS 7.4), Jerry Augustine (4.2), Jays took Ron Jones (DNS 1.6). 12 reached 2.4 per
- 372: Best: Chuck Finley (DNS 57.9), Jordan Walden (3.3), Jays took Ridge Smith. 13 reached 4.4 per (inc Finley, negative without him)
- 402: Best: Albert Pujols (101.2 - signed for $60k!) Jays took Chris Lincoln (DNS). 12 reached 9.4 per (no Pujols sub 1 per)
- 432: Best: Doug DeCinces (DNS 41.7), Kent Hrbek (38.6), Jays took Chris Hall & John Tsoukalas. 9 reached 10 WAR per (remove big 2 and it is barely over 0)
- 462: Best: Josh Winckowski (1.6, a Jay pick!) Jays also took Shane Dennis. 6 reached, 0.1 bWAR per.
- 492: Best: Paul Maholm (DNS 11.9), Garrett Stephenson (4.9). Jays took Dominic Taccolini. 6 reached, 2.7 bWAR per
- 522: Best: Dean Hartgraves (0.2). Jays took Clayton Keyes. Just 2 reached, negative bWAR per (other guy was -0.8)
- 552: Best: Dave Collins (DNS 15.8), Brett Tomko (DNS 10.7), Brandon Backe (2.5), Jays took Bradley Jones & Braxton Whitehead 6 reached, 4.7 per
- 582: Best: Josh Hader (15.8), Jays took Spencer Van Scoyoc, 9 reached, 3.5 per
- 612: Best: Matt Reynolds (2.7), Jays took Angel Alicea, 5 reached, 0.6 per.
That is it for this years draft (20 rounds) and the history of each pick. So best case is Barry Bonds, Tom Seaver, and Albert Pujols (very unlikely but oh what a dream...), but more really good guys showed up than I expected, even if you limit it to those who signed. Hader, Hrbek, Tyler Rogers, Dozier, Crisp, Whitson, Plunk, Ortiz, Lynn, Baylor drafting a guy at their levels (10-30 WAR) would be very nice to get with the Jays picks. But even then you got just 13 out of 61 x 20 = 1220 picks over 61 years or a 1% shot at a guy like that. Yikes, pretty low odds. Basically I'd expect the Jays to go for the best potential at each pick that they feel could sign. If a guy drops unexpectedly ala Austin Martin in 2020 (ranked #2, got at #5), or Trey Yesavage in '24 (ranked #11, got at #20) they'll pounce. Lets hope someone drops or the Jays have someone unknown on their radar ala Pujols with the Cards (very, very unlikely, but can dream).