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Given we are headed towards another draft I figured it might be a good idea to review the past, as we prepare for the future.  Will we see another Yesavage, a Halladay, or an Augie Schmidt? Time will tell.  

So how have past drafts gone?  Let's do a basic run down by GM using Baseball Reference.  FYI: they include unsigned guys as part of the WAR which skyrockets AA but isn't much of a factor otherwise.

Who Years Best WAR/Year Best Year Worst Best unsigned
Gillick 1977-1994 Dave Stieb  42.4 1989 - Olerud & Kent 1980 - none reached, 2nd overall pick Scott Erickson
Ash 1995-2001 Roy Halladay  47.1 1995 - Halladay 2000 - Dustin McGowan as good as it got Ted Lilly 
JPR 2002-2009 Aaron Hill 18.4 2009 - Yan Gomes, 13 reached 2008 - Eric Thames James Paxton 
AA 2010-2015 Aaron Nola  45.9 2011 - NolaPillar, Musgrove 15 reached 2015 - Brady Singer (DNS) Kris Bryant 
AA (Signed only) 2010-2015 Marcus Stroman  26.5 2011 -PillarMusgrove
10 reached
2015 - Travis Bergen sub 1 WAR Aaron Nola
Atkins 2016-now Bo Bichette 5.7 2016 - Bo & Biggio 2022 - Fluharty & Roden, negative WAR net Shea Langeliers

Note: For Atkins I listed both Nola and Bryant as those 2 were crazy good 'nearly a Jay' guys.  Always interesting - never fair to the most recent GM as so many are still in the minors.  Still, Atkins overall has done poorly in the draft, his pre-2020's averaged just 13.4 and they've had time to reach.  Lots of promise in the current crew but outside of Yesavage I don't think any have shown star quality at the ML level.  A few might, but not yet.

As to rounds...Highlights are 30+ WAR guys... (40+ I list the WAR)
  1. Halladay (64.2), Shawn Green, and Chris Carpenter
  2. David Wells (53.5)
  3. John Olerud (58.1), Jimmy Key (48.9)
  4. nightmare - none at 8 WAR even (current contenders to break that are Chad Dallas, Sean Keys)
  5. Dave Stieb (56.4), Pat Hentgen
Others are Jesse Barfield (9th), Jeff Kent (20th 55.4), Aaron Nola (DNS 22nd), Woody Williams (28th), Orlando Hudson (33rd DNS & 43rd).

Latest drafted to reach was  Chris Woodward 1994 round 54 (1.1 bWAR), latest drafted but didn't sign is Tom Marsh (1987 70th round, -0.8 bWAR), latest picked was round 75 (1478th pick overall) in 1989 - Bert Emanuel who never played as a pro.

How good is the shot at getting a 30+ WAR star, shot at a HOF?  Low. 50+ers are rare - 5 in 50 years.  30+ a touch less rare - 12 signed, plus twice didn't sign so about 1 in 4 years.  Under Atkins we should have had 2-3 of them.  Bo will probably get there, Yesavage certainly has a chance but is far, far away, but who else?  No idea.

Now, this year is more limited than normal due to high spending last year, signing a top free agent, you get the idea.  So what picks do we have and what is possible?  61 drafts have happened.
  • 39: Best ever: Barry Bonds (DNS 162* WAR), Lance Lynn (29.8) & Don Baylor (28.5), 2 others in the 10's (Joey Gallo & Todd Hundley), Jays never had this pick before - 28 reached avg 10.6 bWAR (includes Bonds).
  • 103: Best: Eric Plunk (13.5) & Russ Ortiz (13.2) - that's it for 10+'s.  Jays in '99 took Matt Ford (0.4 bWAR for Milwaukee, rule 5'd him from us). Overall 19 reached, 1.6 bWAR avg
  • 131: Best: Ed Whitson (21.2), 1 other over 10, Jays had this pick twice - wasted on 2 guys who didn't make it (Jeff Mays '85, David Trimble 1980). Overall 21 reached, 2.0 bWAR avg
  • 164: Best: Mickey Morandini (DNS 9.9), Scott Karl (8.7). 18 reached, 1.5 bWAR per, no Jay picks
  • 193: Best: Tom Seaver (DNS 109.9), Matt Capps (6.3).  16 reached, 7.7 per (inc Seaver, remove him and it is under 1 per). Jays had this twice, DJ Hanson (99) & Ken Whitfield (83)
  • 222: Best: Coco Crisp (28.9), Jays once had it Andy Ravel ('16). 8 reached, 3.4 bWAR on average
  • 252: Best: Brian Dozier (24.3), Jays in '16 got Kyle Weatherly.  12 reached, 3.4 bWAR per
  • 282: Best: James Karinchak (3.2), Jays in '16 Nick Hartman, 5 reached, -0.6 per
  • 312: Best: Tyler Rogers (10.9), yes that one, Jays got Kirby Snead (-0.5).  11 reached, 1.0 bWAR per
  • 342: Best: Scott Downs (DNS 10.8), Charlie Lea (DNS 7.4), Jerry Augustine (4.2), Jays took Ron Jones (DNS 1.6). 12 reached 2.4 per
  • 372: Best: Chuck Finley (DNS 57.9), Jordan Walden (3.3), Jays took Ridge Smith. 13 reached 4.4 per (inc Finley, negative without him)
  • 402: Best: Albert Pujols (101.2 - signed for $60k!) Jays took Chris Lincoln (DNS). 12 reached 9.4 per (no Pujols sub 1 per)
  • 432: Best: Doug DeCinces (DNS 41.7), Kent Hrbek (38.6), Jays took Chris Hall & John Tsoukalas. 9 reached 10 WAR per (remove big 2 and it is barely over 0) 
  • 462: Best: Josh Winckowski (1.6, a Jay pick!) Jays also took Shane Dennis.  6 reached, 0.1 bWAR per.
  • 492: Best: Paul Maholm (DNS 11.9), Garrett Stephenson (4.9).  Jays took Dominic Taccolini. 6 reached, 2.7 bWAR per
  • 522: Best: Dean Hartgraves (0.2). Jays took Clayton Keyes. Just 2 reached, negative bWAR per (other guy was -0.8)
  • 552: Best: Dave Collins (DNS 15.8), Brett Tomko (DNS 10.7), Brandon Backe (2.5), Jays took Bradley Jones & Braxton Whitehead 6 reached, 4.7 per
  • 582: Best: Josh Hader (15.8), Jays took Spencer Van Scoyoc, 9 reached, 3.5 per
  • 612: Best: Matt Reynolds (2.7), Jays took Angel Alicea, 5 reached, 0.6 per.
That is it for this years draft (20 rounds) and the history of each pick.  So best case is Barry Bonds, Tom Seaver, and Albert Pujols (very unlikely but oh what a dream...), but more really good guys showed up than I expected, even if you limit it to those who signed.  Hader, Hrbek, Tyler Rogers, Dozier, Crisp, Whitson, Plunk, Ortiz, Lynn, Baylor drafting a guy at their levels (10-30 WAR) would be very nice to get with the Jays picks.  But even then you got just 13 out of 61 x 20 = 1220 picks over 61 years or a 1% shot at a guy like that.  Yikes, pretty low odds.  Basically I'd expect the Jays to go for the best potential at each pick that they feel could sign.  If a guy drops unexpectedly ala Austin Martin in 2020 (ranked #2, got at #5), or Trey Yesavage in '24 (ranked #11, got at #20) they'll pounce.  Lets hope someone drops or the Jays have someone unknown on their radar ala Pujols with the Cards (very, very unlikely, but can dream).
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The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Marc Hulet - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#479919) #
I suspect the Jays will go heavy with pitching again. Last year's signings have been gutted by injuries (much like Barriera, Maroudis, Perry, etc from a couple of years ago).

Injured: Micah Bucknam, Karson Ligon, Jared Spencer (injured when drafted), Trace Baker, Dayne Pengally, and Brayden Heidel are all hurt. Luke Kovach just made his first pro appearance this week after coming off the IL.

Danny Thompson Jr, Noah Palmese, Reese Wissinger, Carson Myers and Mason Davenport are the only healthy ones and 2-3 of them aren't very good and are possible DFAs when the new 2026 signees are ready.
metafour - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#479920) #
Kiley McDaniel's latest mock:

39. Toronto Blue Jays
Will Brick, C, Christian Brothers HS (Tenn.)
Rank: 39

The Jays can't know what players will be on the board for their pick, but Brick has been mentioned here for a few weeks and likely goes in the late 20s or 30s. Brunson and Radel also come up here; the Jays seem open to the best value rather than locking into one sort of player.

CF Chase Brunson was actually drafted out of HS by the Jays in 2023 (18th round) but wasn't signable.
scottt - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#479921) #
Being a certain type of playing is a huge part of the value.

scottt - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#479923) #
Still early to knock down the 2022 draft. Kasevich is still around. Barriera and Brock might pitch one day.
Also, do you count Spencer Miles as a 2022 draftee?

2021 gave us Hoglund, Tidedemann, Dallas, Juenger. The top player so far is Matt Svanson who was traded for Paul DeJong. Ach.
2023 hasn't produced anything yet.

39, 103, 131 and 164 is probably the worst draft in franchise history.

Earnie Clement was pick 132.
Lukes was pick 214.
Springer was 11.
Varsho was 68.
Myles Straw was pick 349.

Gausman was pick number 4.
Yesavage was 20.
Bieber was 122.
Cease was 169.

Louis Varland was pick 449.
Glevin - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#479926) #
Would hate drafting a catcher with first pick. Catchers second most unpredictable position after pitchers and a guy whose profile is "Great arm, bat work in progress" is just not someone I want to be picking with my only top-50 pick. Wouldn't be surprised if Jays go under-slot a bit at 39 to try to get 2/3 guys at higher value.
metafour - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#479933) #
HS catchers are definitely a risky demographic, but I'm sure there are scenarios where Brick is simply the BPA at that pick. He is young for the class as a re-class from 2027, and while he had a 'down' final season in HS, he hit well for Team USA and had good underlying data on the showcase circuit. He's probably more of a longer-development guy than someone who you're entirely projecting the bat on.
June Northey - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#479935) #
For this exercise I was limiting to Jays picks outside of how each individual pick they get this year has done. Thus Miles didn't count as far as this goes. Funny - Miles is a 4th round pick - the Jays round of death. His 1.5 bWAR puts him 3rd for that round in '22 (Troy Melton #1, Chase Meidroth #2). Now, in the offseason I might do a review of guys who started here, spent their whole careers here, ended here. Sadly for whole career Vlad is easily the best ever, and will dominate that list if he ends his career here (IE isn't dumped in a decade ala Dave Stieb who had that weird bit with the ChiSox before his comeback here years later). Only 4 guys have 1000+ PA as a career Jay - Vlad, Kirk, Garth Iorg, and Devon Travis. Similar with pitchers, but the top for IP isn't active, it is Luis Leal (946 IP), then 200+ IP for Ricky Romero, Jerry Garvin, Jessie Litsch, Mike Willis, and Bowden Francis. That's it. For comparison 1977's expansion cousins Seattle has Félix Hernández at 2729 2/3 IP every last one as a Mariner. Edgar Martínez leads career Mariners in PA with 8674. Of course, the Jays have 2 WS titles and a 3rd appearance there, the Mariners have 0 WS appearances. So we win.

Obviously higher picks = better odds, but gems are to be found later but you need to be damn lucky (see Jeff Kent in the 20th).
June Northey - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#479936) #
I could see Brick being a Jays pick - they need to go risky unless they get damn lucky. Odds are low of finding a star at 39 without luck. Just 5 of 61 have 10+ WAR, none since 2012 and under half of #39 picks have reached the majors at all (of course, recent ones are forgiven, but pre-2020 you get 27 making it out of 55, barely under half with 6 having negative WAR). So yeah, roll the dice - take a risk, no risk, no reward I say. Top 5 or even top 10 you might want to be a touch safe and avoid high school pitchers and catchers, but at 39 it is a 'screw it' situation.
metafour - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#479954) #
BA's final mock draft:

39. Blue Jays — Jarren Advincula, 2B, Georgia Tech

Bonus Pool: $5,543,100
Slot Value: $2,571,700

I hear a few players here and there for the Blue Jays, but really not much with any confidence for this pick specifically. I think that makes sense. We are 39 picks deep and I’m pretty confident the Blue Jays and every other team in this range has no clue who’s going to get to them. Advincula is an elite pure hitter who fits here on talent. Bo Lowrance or Taj Marchand would be interesting options if they make it here, but the Blue Jays don’t have a huge pool to work with.

Other Names We’re Hearing: Will Brick

Dart Throw Names For Later Picks: Will Adams, Brady Neal, Nate Isler, Eric Nachtsheim, Wyatt Clatur, Elliott Lascelles, Robert Omidi
mendocino - Friday, July 10 2026 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#479955) #
from Shi Davidi article

Canadian class

The Blue Jays met with lefty Sean Duncan of Port Coquitlam, B.C., and infielder Elliot Lascelles of Toronto — two of the top Canadians available in the draft — during the combine, and both were described as impressive.

They’re part of a strong Canadian class that also includes Indiana State outfielder Carter Beck of Candruff, Sask., infielder Robert Omidi of Mississauga, Ont., and infielder Taj Marchand, who was born in Charleston, S.C., to Canadian father Hugo Marchand, a Montrealer drafted in the seventh round by the Toronto Maple Leafs in 1997.
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